The First Round of 2026 Fantasy Drafts Is All Wrong
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This transcription features a fantasy football draft analysis for the upcoming season, focusing on the top 12-15 overall picks. The hosts, Hayden and a co-host, agree on the first four selections: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua. Gibbs is ranked first due to his explosive upside, especially in games without David Montgomery, and Detroit’s high-scoring offense. Robinson follows, with potential to be the overall RB1 if he secures more goal-line work, but his team’s lower projected scoring creates slight hesitation. Chase is third, offering elite consistency and red-zone production with a healthy Joe Burrow, while Nacua is fourth, with historic receiving yards per game and potential for unmatched fantasy numbers if he gains more end-zone targets. The discussion then diverges at pick five, where Christian McCaffrey is ranked fifth or sixth. Despite his past dominance, concerns about his age, heavy workload, and poor efficiency metrics make him riskier. Amon-Ra St. Brown is also mentioned as a safe top-five option due to his reliable production and favorable red-zone targets. The hosts emphasize the importance of targeting ceiling cases in the back half of Round 1, as the top tier offers clear advantages, and they advise managing risk versus upside when drafting running backs with high usage.
(upbeat music) There is no bigger consensus in Facy Football drafts than the top 12 overall picks, the first round. So as soon as best ball drafts open in May, the same names make up the first round all summer long for multiple months. But we all know that the season, once it's over, does not end that way. So today, Hayden and I are gonna do our best to break group think and both list how we rank the top 12 to 15 overall picks in this year's Facy drafts. - I think interesting part about Round One is there's like the top six players who have established themselves as true separators. And then the back half and then even in the second round, to me this year, it's about finding the ceiling case. Because if I don't have Jameer Gibbs this year, if I don't have Pukinacua, I feel very nervous about my chances of winning. I can't afford to take the RB8 finisher somewhere in that turn. I'm hoping for the RB3 that year, because I think it's gonna be pretty difficult to match some of the ceiling cases that we have in the first half of Round One. So that's how I'm breaking ties at the back half of Round One. - Love all of that. How we're gonna do this is just go back and forth, one, two, 15. We're gonna talk about this players at the turn because that's when a major factor is in terms of how you're gonna build your lineups this year. We're gonna talk about half PPR rankings, but maybe throw in a bit of strategy if PPR and our rankings, how we're draft these players is very divergent from that. All right, you're gonna start with each one of these and then I'll go back and forth. Who is your number one player in drafts this year? - It's gotta be Jameer Gibbs. He's holding out for a contract. Hopefully that gets settled shortly. But the upside here is so obvious. Jameer Gibbs is averaged 25.1 half PPR points in the eight games that David Montgomery has missed or played under 25% of the snaps. He's gonna set career highs in volume. The Detroit offensive line has gotten a little bit better going into this season. They spent some real capital across the entire offensive line. He was fourth last year in fantasy points over placement per game. While he was splitting time with David Montgomery, the check goes in there. I do not think the check out in David Montgomery are nearly the same level player. This is all going towards Jameer Gibbs and the other last note I had. That defense is gonna be pretty bad this year in Detroit. So we're gonna see a lot of shootouts, a lot of dome games. This entire division's loaded. So we're gonna see a lot of like 28 to 30 games in Detroit. Jameer Gibbs is gonna get a lot of those points. - Yeah, the interesting part about the defense baby still being bad is that the lines heading into the season are still favored in 14 games this year. I think that's second across the league. Jameer Gibbs is also my number one player. He's actually going second on Yahoo at this very moment. If you look at drafts over the last handful of days. I mean, the goal of drafting a running back this early on is that he eclipses the 21 points per game for the entire season. In the 25 career games with Gibbs has played 60% or more of the team snaps. He's averaged 20 points per contest. And as you said, I wrote it down the same way. Isaiah Patecheco is no Dave Montgomery. So I'm expecting Jameer Gibbs to hit that 70% snap share on a weekly basis. He played 67% last year. And then a big note for me with how the team kind of crumbled last year. Obviously they fired their play collar and offensive line injuries hit in a major way. There are some new faces and some same ones and new places along that offensive line where you have Penaisu, a left tackle, Blake Miller, and Ron one at right tackle. Tate Ratledge is in year two at guard. And then you have Kade Mays at center right now. So not only does it give you like week to week scoring Hayden, he's also one of the true game breakers with his speed both in the rushing and receiving department. They can give you this NASA spike weeks. If those pop up in the face, he playoffs, and hey, you're headed to the championship. Other note, Drew pet sings a new offensive coordinator. I was looking at some yards before contact numbers in the run department. Number one is like the Mike McTeehan. No offense or the last couple of years is part of that because Devani H in really high up there over the last couple of years. Drew petting in the Arizona Cardinals, which you would not think that's not an offensive line set in Arizona for the last couple of years. It's definitely not a running back stat either. To me, that the scheme oriented stat a credit to Drew petting. This is the best weaponry he's had since being in the play calling mix. Yeah, I will add, and we just did a show with Ryan Paganetti on, you know, play callers and how they're generating in their rushing attacks 10 plus yard runs over and over and over again. Drew petting ranks fourth on that list, whereas, you know, Ben Johnson was top two. Clay Natums, who is now with the Dallas Cowboys, was a part of that Drew petting staff in Arizona, and now he's not. So maybe some of those numbers are skewed because Clay Natums is one of the best run let's say organizers and architect across the league. All right, so we have the same one one. Hey, and I have a feeling that our number two player is going to be the same here as well. Yeah, I'd have PPR. I will go be as an Robinson. I think in full PPR, this is where the Pukajamaar Chase conversation, I think really kind of picks into gear just because I feel less certain about the Falcon's offense versus the Lions offense. And that's how he broke the tie between B-John and Jameer Gibbs. That said, the market projections for B-John and Gibbs are almost the exact same thing. We also have Tyler Alger with out B-John Robinson. We don't know the exact splits because Alger has been healthy for a lot of that. Ryan Robinson comes in. I think he can do a pretty decent Tyler Alger impression. But B-John was the RB3 on RB8 usage last year. That was when Alger handled 10 inside the five-yard line carries to B-John's 11. So that was like a 50/50 split. Can we just like not make that 50/50 split moving forward? That would be helpful. He's going to catch the ball. There's really not many pass game threats in Atlanta after Kyle Pitts and Drake London. I don't think the defense is going to be nearly as good. So he's going to catch a bunch of passes. And this hopefully could be the year where Kevin's to fans he says, let's give B-John Robinson all the goal line work. And that's how he closes the gap between these huge Marches, these huge Jameer Gibbs splits that we have with David Montgomery. Yeah. And the fantasy playoffs last year, B-John ran for 175, 168, and 229 total yards. Obviously B-John Robinson is my number two player as well for fantasy football this year. He's average 20 points per game when he's reached 15 touches. That's not a lot of touches to average. 20 plus face points per contest. And yet he owned 79% of the snaps last year. So I'm ranking him second. But with that in mind, Hayden, I still do think there is a pathway for him to obviously finish as the number one overall player in fantasy football this year. And then I sat back and asked myself, OK, how can that happen? What has to change for B-John to get there? It really comes down to Red Zone scoring. OK? He's ranked 13th, 6th, and 23rd in Red Zone running back scoring over the last three years, according to Richie Bar. And over his first three years in the league, he's only had Hayden 23 carries from inside of the 5-yard line. Derek Henry had 24 last season on his own. Even Devon Singletary had more carries inside the 5-yard line than B-John Robinson did last year. Now, a lot of you can say, well, that's because he scores long touch jumps. Yes, that is true. But what could make him the number one overall player is if he scores the long touch downs, and also when this team gets inside the 5-yard line, he also scores those touch downs. And I think that we might get closer to that this season. Yeah, I really hope so. 10 to 11 last year without you here. Hopefully that's not the case this season. I did want to end this conversation by bringing up why we have Jameer Gibbs over B-John Robinson. I'll speak for myself. It comes down to just the implied points and where these teams are projected heading into the year. I mentioned that the Lions are favored in 14 games this season. And the Falcons are only favored into. And you score more points in your opponent in games that you win. And the Lions are probably going to score more points in the Falcons this year. And I think the trickle down to Jameer Gibbs just means he's going to score more points than B-John Robinson. And to that point, right now, the quarterback one in Atlanta, it's like today is a complete nobody, because two is injured and so is Michael Penton. So you have those kind of worst-case scenario outcomes that exist with B-John. Enough so where I think these next two wide receivers. I do think by the end of this training camp period, I might kind of go back and forth and maybe even have B-John as low as four. But I can't go any lower than that, obviously. I was hoping to start this video off with a bang. I am a bit nervous that our top four are going to be the same. So to you, the viewers, do not click away. I guarantee you, once we get to our fifth players, things really diverge from there. We go in different places. So stick around, because this video gets really interesting there. But to bring that up, who's your number three player in Facebook all drafts issue? Really tough call. I'm going with Jamar Chase right here. In games with Joe Burrow healthy over the past three seasons, he's averaging 21 and a half PPR points per game, White or C-1 on White or C-1 overall, expected points. Joe Burrow's healthy, Jamar Chase is healthy. I would say the offensive line since the beginning of the Joe Burrow Jamar Chase years to where it is now is in a much better spot. The defense is probably a little bit better now than it was the last couple seasons. I view that all as a wash. I view the bangles as a Super Bowl contending team this year. And everything obviously flows through Jamar Chase. So he feels like one of the highest floor players period. And then in full PPR, if you want to take him over, B-Jong Robins said I would not bat an eye for a second. Jamar Chase is also my third overall player. In four of his five seasons, he's ranked top five in points per game. Pretty damn good. He is both one of the most heavily targeted players in the in zone. And then also scoring targets from long range. It's kind of what I just talked about with B-Jong Robins and this is what we want from a wide receiver. And also not just getting the opportunity to score touchdowns, it's also he's an outside to inside to outside player in this offense. So he's a game breaker. We have seen him score 30, 40 points. Just anecdotally, he probably has more of those 30 plus points scoring weeks than any other wide receiver in face of a ball over the last few seconds.
seasons, and that is why I have him as the Y2C for one and third overall this year. Yeah, last four games, 23 points, 20 points, 25 points, 24 points, you know, it's just a clinic. Pretty good. I have another bingo. I'm going to talk about spoiler in the top 15. So I have a lot more of how the bingles offense was unsuccessful early in the season with Jake Browning and got much better with Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow. And obviously, Jamar Chase felt that too. All right, your number four player is who? Pukka Nikuha and he can easily easily finish as the most valuable player in fantasy. This year, I think this is a big four that I feel comfortable with. 23.8 PPR points per game were 3.4 more than the Y2C for two overall last season over the past two seasons. Only Jamar Chase is in his neighborhood over his entire career. Nikuha is the most receiving yards per game in NFL history. That's the entire league history at 95 yards per game. There's still no Y3C for three. They're going to do the 13 personnel stuff. It'll be the only wider seaver on the field. His running mate is 33 years old and Devon Te Adams. The Rams are still projected for the most points this year. Outside the red zone, Nikuha caught eight receptions per game on a 33% target share. That's outside the red zone eight per game. That's what we're talking about here. And inside the red zone at any point, if we put this thing around, we're talking about a season that is unmatched in fantasy. I don't think that's the most likely scenario because Adam is very good at the goal line. But if if that switches, we're talking about an unmatched potential here. Pukas also my number four player. I do love how you worded that outside the red zone because I think not my one frustration with Pukas Nikuha, but like the one infinity stone that he hasn't had previously is being dominant inside the red zone. I mean, just overall it was scoring touchdowns prior to this past season. I mean, his first two years in the league, he combined for 10 touchdowns. And then obviously this past year, he hit 11, which is a big deal. We need that to happen again. And I think it will. But as you said, when they get inside the 20 yard line and especially the 10 and the five, Devonte Adams just has the gravity, no matter where he goes, what team he's on to dominate those opportunities. When Devonte Adams on the field that she had according to reeps, he out targeted Pukas Nikuha 31 to 10 in the red zone and 28 to four in the end zone. But as you said, like when Devonte missed games, guess you got those opportunities. Pukas Nikuha. And what if Devonte has started to climb a little bit and maybe they've spent the all season hoping that Pukas can be their goes you player inside the red zone, and especially in the end zone. And if that is the case, as you said, we have like from one goal line to the other goal line, a full complete package here with Pukas Nikuha to be like the player that you need in face football this year. There's no reason why they don't target them in the red area. Like he comes down with crazy sideline catches and is a massive guy like the second they switched that like it would clearly work. So it's just really just, you know, even factoring that that's not going to happen. It's it's him and Jamar chased by themselves right now looking at it. Right. His projection like in the betting markets, 1400 receiving yards, 1400 receiving guards. That's like the that's like the baseline gaze form. That's crazy. Yeah, it's great. I mean, wide receiver one, wide receiver five and wide receiver nine and points per game since entering the league. And that was what as a day three draft pick that rarely happens. You know rarely happens. And I do want to say I feel a lot better about Matthew Stafford heading into this season than I did this time last year. Hayden when you know, the immortal chamber showed up on. It is that it's still there. By the way, it's still there. Yeah, but it's a road show now. Yeah. Now it's just purely for marketing purposes. Yes. Also weird thing. Beijan, Jameer Gibbs and Pukas Nikuha. It's like contract seasons for all these guys. I think they're going to get paid maybe before the before training camp. But like you got a lot riding to the prime of all these guys careers. Like it feels very good to have a top four pick this season. All right. This is one of our biggest shows of the summer. So if you've made it this far and you haven't hit that subscribe button do it right now. It's totally free to you. Our whole goal for the next month plus is to help you win your face. You football leagues this year. Win your drafts this year. And hit that thumbs up button while you're there. So, you know, YouTube knows that you watch this episode. Hayden, I am sick of agreeing. I don't want to agree the rest of this episode. So who's your number five player? Go on Christian McCaffrey. Coming off 450 touches. You know how this can go sideways here. It's rare to get that many touches when running backs get that many touches. They are injured often the next season. That said, he easily finishes the RB1 overall unexpected points at 23 per game. RB1 overall an actual fantasy points as well. If he stays healthy, he's right in the mix with Beijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs. And I'm trying to find upside weeks. Even if you get him for 13, 14 weeks like great, great by the last couple of weeks here. He just gives you such a clear advantage when he's out there. Kyle Shanahan wants to scale his workload back a little bit. They always say that I think they're going to do it at times this year, but we're dropping receivers like flies with Ricky Pierce, all George Kittle coming off in the injury and running backs with broken ribs and what not. It's like we're going to come to the season again. He's the only guy that's healthy. So I get he can get injured and this could look stupid at the same time like last year. You can draft him and you can win your fantasy league. Christian McCaffrey is my number six overall player. Hey, I mean, it was my home run swing on this episode last year where I called out CMC as my fourth overall player and he finishes the running back one with 22 points per game. I'm not doing that this year, but it's not because I don't want to or don't believe in him. I think I just kind of believe in the other players that we talked about here at the front. I mean, no player owns more of those team touches than CMC did last year. 47% like 47% of the time he touched the football. Now as you said, it's kind of twofold, right? Would CMC season have been even better if everyone was healthier, right? Better team, more point scored, better blocking. I think there is a case for that. Or did he actually benefit from everyone being hurt? You know, he was forced fed the ball despite lacking juice because the underlying metrics were really poor. I mean, he was 37th in rate of runs again, 10 or more yards, 30 second on runs that got stuffed at the line of screeners that failed to gain yards, 36 and yards after contact per rush. And as you said, like the last three backs that hit 450 touches from Aryan Foster to the Markamurie to the season prior of Seek One Barclay, their production and their fantasy appeal dropped significantly the next year. So I love CMC. I don't want him to hit this cliff, but you know, those guys were 26 and 27 years old that I just shot it out and CMC is entering his age 30 season right now. Yeah, he's a lot riskier this year than he was the previous season, which is ironic because he was coming off of injury and you really just want to be avoiding him when he comes off that amount of touches. I just can't ignore the upside. We're trying to come in first and second last time. I checked in fantasy football. Like you just got to deal with the risk. Absolutely love that. Okay, my fifth player. I'm on Ross St. Brown. I actually changed this right before this video star. I did another wide receiver in the spot, but just going through this research, I thought to myself, I just trust ARSB and this situation more than I do others. I mean, 100 plus catches in each of the last four seasons. And just the environment that he's in is fantastic. I mean, we're talking about also the team that shares, you know, the number one overall player in fantasy football this year, 12 of 16 games in the fantasy season will be played indoors. I already mentioned how many games are going to be favored in. And I keep talking about, you know, red zone and in zone targets because guess what? That's where the majority of touchdowns are scored. There are a lot of differences between Amarost St. Brown and someone like Zay flowers. For example, but one of them is that red zone work. I mean, Amarost St. Brown led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last season. Comparably, Zay flowers had 10. Amarost St. Brown has 66 red zone targets over the last two seasons. Zay flowers had 17. So this is someone who from your own in zone to the other in zone is going to be heavily featured and heavily target. And he even scored as the wide receiver for last year when the play collar was fired mid season. And I expect a lot more stability from the offensive line and a coaching standpoint in 2026 year for the line. As safe as it gets in this prime, the offense is completely loaded three straight seasons with double digit touchdowns and 115 plus receptions. That's incredible stuff. There's also splits without David Montgomery as well as his 10 game sample where demon either miss the game or finish with five carriers like left the game early in those games. Amarost St. Brown average 21 PPR points on 22 expected points. Both of those would be the wider super one overall. If you extrapolated to that, he's averaged eight receptions, 102 receiving yards in those games. He doesn't even run hot and touchdowns in those ones. Yeah, this one's like a total layup. I have an eighth overall. I think I can make the case with him, JSN, Jonathan Taylor, they're kind of all in that range where I feel very good about them. Amarost floor is just like so incredible and obviously better in full PPR. Okay, who's your sixth ranked pair? I got JSN six coming off an incredible season. That was 99.6 receiving yards per game, including the postseason 35% target share. The next closest was Amarost at 32%. That's a pretty large gap there. Only 8% of his targets were screened. He wasn't doing this as a merchant. You get some of the gaming stuff, but really last year was about working the ball down the football field. That's a credit to Sam Darnold. The offensive line took a little bit of a step here. The one thing working against JSN is he's done it once where a lot of those guys we just talked about have done it many times. Then you also have the loss of Clint Kubiak who we fully trust. Now the new guy they're they're bringing in come from the shana hand
entry and Brock Hewart who covers the Seahawks. He had interesting a quote about this just saying that there's no like a connection between McDonald and the new offensive coordinator. He just crushed the whiteboard. Brian Flurry. Brian Flurry. Yes. Just crushed the whiteboard and was like this guy's the smartest guy in the room like we have to hire him. So it wasn't like some like Nepo higher. Here's my bud from high school. It's like no like no real connection. Just crushed it. I kind of like that going into this. There's really like I like Rashid Jeehy and AJ Barner for what they are. But those guys are like target volume. So this is going to be another huge season from J.S. and I'm not really surprising anybody. I think that's a trend with Mike McDonald where he doesn't just hire friends or acquaintances like he hired you know the Washington offense coordinator without ever you know overlapping with him and then fired him and then went clink Kubiak. He had any background with Clint either. So he really does try to hire the best person for the job and it has worked out. Jason's going sixth on Yahoo right now. So you're right in line with ADP. I have him as a player. And this is the one I was battling here with Amman Ra St Brown. I mean the craziest stat. I think you might have just said it. I mean he produced 3.73 receiving yards per pass attempt for the Seahawks this year. So it's not even per target. It was just hey, when Seattle just threw the ball to anyone, he averaged 3.73 yards. Why do you see for two and points per game last year? Hey, do you think that this is the player though that regression is likely is to hit more than anyone else like again no clink Kubiak we get Brian Flurry. I just overall if you play the law of averages doubt they win the Super Bowl like in this year. Maybe the Seahawks play action success drops this year versus the historic rate. But it was that last year. He led the NFL in yards and touchdowns off of play action last year. At the same time even if regression does hit. He still dominates any share that you look at. Yeah of this passing attack compared to any other water seeker of their pass attack. So you know Seattle might be a little bit worse than a few areas and if they do then they have to throw the ball more. And if they throw the ball more. So if you're a player, guess what? JSN 10 fill it in with just more opportunities to answer your question. There is regression coming JSN's way it's hard at like repeat 35% target share like that can be you know, down to where monrod at 32% yards for target 10 and a half completion percentage over expected at plus 10% those are just like really unsustainable numbers. So I'm going to regress those to 9.8 and like six percentage points over expected, which is like where the rest of the elite wide receivers are and still be the third the second the first fantasy wide receiver. I just think the difference between you know, like the Matthew Stafford Joe burrow offenses versus what one year Sam Darmal I just feel a little bit more compute those other two guys but I'm not going to say anything negative about JSN. So I'm going to add a little bit more to the next one. So I'm going to give you a little bit more time to talk about that. And then their season hit a wall and blew up because the Daniel Jones injury and we know how the season ended because of that. I mean, it is crazy in eight wins, which was basically eight of the first 10 games of the season. The average over 30 half PPR points. So when we talk about true league winners, that's it. Like that is what we're looking for. And I hate that we've just split hairs between all these players because I feel like I'm really high on JT this year. I'm actually optimistic about the culture rebounding and that even goes to like me actually wanting to draft Daniel Jones and Super Flex leagues of where he's being selected right now because people things he sucks. But I have john and Taylor's my tent overall player. And I know I know why but all these guys are really freaking good. And I know I know and he owned 84% of the cults backfield touches last season. And then the only addition to the backfield was a seventh round rookie who's like 26 years old. So yeah, it doesn't matter. Yeah, right. So yeah, john and Taylor led the league with six yards per carry, posting a 47, 48% success rate, the opening 10 games before Daniel Jones again went to the bench and all that stuff. And I don't know maybe you better judge it again. You better have some really good notes for whoever you have a number seven. These notes better like I do. They better they better sway me because you just had 30 points per game for a half season like these next notes better be good. Here's the difference. When the cults are in negative games, crypt. Jonathan Taylor is not as involved as other top backs of our across the league. I think it all shocked us what happened in the first 10 games of last season when the cults were the best offense in the league. And I, depending on where you look right now, I think the culture only favored for six games heading into the season right now. And if that's the case, if the only one six games this year, I think there's a chance that john and Taylor season might be viewed as a bit of a disappointment just because he is not his production is obviously not 30 points per game in losses. But I think he might have like the biggest difference between wins and losses in terms of the gap in his fantasy score. Yeah, I'm just looking at it like the last month or so of the season, he was still heavily utilized. I'm seeing RB seven last four games for him and expected points just the efficiency wasn't there. I do think even if Daniel Jones is not anywhere near where he was riding super hot in the first two months. It's better than what they had the very end like the Philip rivers and the Riley Leonard type of games out there. So I feel good about this if like Daniel Jones is like healthy enough to be out there week one and like healthy enough to like keep the offense middle of the pack, but not himself like they have to rely on drometer even more. So yeah, feel good about it. And then he's going to be playing in hanger then at seventh overall. It's take one bark Lee now on every single platform that you draft off of he's going in round two just like he is on Yahoo, but you said I better have a good player for seventh overall. How about the guy that just a couple of seasons ago was the best player in phase football and the one that you needed. For some reason that has been forgotten about despite all of us 365 days ago, selecting him as the first running back off the board. Now what happens and what is happening right now as we enter 2026 is the entire focus of the Eagles and you know the coverage of it is just around their passing attack. What is Sean Manian going to do with Jalen hurts. I was going to pluck different throws out of him today. We read that so much more under center work. How is Devonte Smith going to fill in the shoes of AJ Brown as this team's top wide receiver. How is Makai lemon and Eli Stauer is going to fit in the passing attack. I am telling you none of that matters as much as getting sake one bark Lee back on track like he was in 2024 because if the running game gets back to being the most explosive and like the highest success rate unit in the league, then that makes the passing game that much easier like it changes the math. It forces a safety or defense of back to climb into the box and that's when you get single high and that's when you take these easier passing shots down the field. So what happened was take one bark Lee last year, Hayden to me actually was not an individual talent drop. He was 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt last year when he ranked second in 2024 despite that he's still ranked seventh in explosive runs last year with 58. He was second in that mark in 2024 was 77. So I think despite Jeff Stoutland being gone a Hall of Fame offensive line coach. I still think just from a healthier standpoint. Cohesiveness and quality offensive line is going to make sake one bark Lee get back to his best work like we saw just two seasons ago. I like this call. I've got them at tent overall. So I'm ahead on every single ADP right there with you. I think that Sean Minan is going to make a huge impact there just because the last offense coordinator just like could not string it together. I think that's the second scoring right now that the betting markets have the Eagles 12th. I can see them finishing seven and scoring Sean Minan bounces back the offensive line is all returning. They didn't play well last year. They're all banged up right now Lane Johnson after training camp today said when I like about this is everything looks complex to the defense to the offense. It's actually pretty simplified. The first line is it's the most friendly and maybe the past couple years he's been involved in more under center stuff just more different types of runs more outside zone stuff. I thought their offense was very predictable like Lane Johnson was kind of laying out last year all that stuff's going to help him out and then plus. And then he had positive regression stuff with say one Barclay last year he had 11 carries inside the five guard line. He scored one rushing touchdown on them like that.
That's not a sake one, Barclay stuff. I was just like Cam Jergens, Atlanta Dickerson, they weren't healthy and then Lane Johnson missed nine games. We also just talked to Ryan in a previous episode. Maybe the Tush push kind of dials back a little bit and they might have to do some other things because some other things we like understand or run to a steak one Barclay this year. Maybe like the Jalenhurt's sake one, rushing touchdowns kind of even out a little bit this year more so than in other years. So I think lots of reasons to be a back on the off to Mr. Xied for sake one. I feel about sake one like I did about CMC this time last year. I like that. And that we just saw this guy win healthy rank as the number one running back and like the guy you needed in multiple seasons. And because of a down season, albeit CMCs was due to health and everyone drafting him that high. It left like a bad taste in their mouth so they don't want to do it again the next year. We're just getting crazy value to the point Hayden. I don't know how on every single platform, all of you are confidently drafting Ashen Gentia ahead of sake one Barclay. That makes zero sense to me. I mean, we're talking about an offense in the Eagles. That's projected to score 24 points per game versus the Raiders at 19. You're expecting Ashen Gentie behind a worse offensive line to score better than sake one Barclay who has a better offensive line and has already done it previously. I know the age gap is there. We're talking about a year to Ashen Gentie, but that one just doesn't make any sense to me. I mean, again, two years ago in a good environment, sake one Barclay had touched on runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25 and 23 yards. And the last year just two touchdown runs of longer than 13. So I said this in a bunch of places. I want to say in our show, but I guess sake one Barclay is like my biggest flag plant this year. And that should not be like a huge statement, but according to drafts where he's going anywhere from like the first pick of the second round to like the fifth pick of the second round, it seems like it is. This is what I'm talking about. We're at the one two turn. I want like real upside 20 plus points per game type of upside, sake one has like literally done it before. So I do like taking the swing there. Also, A.G. Brown not being involved like could we see, you know, 10 more targets through across the season to sake one Barclay. It kind of breaks in ties like I think all those type of things are possible. I do want to say I'm also drafting tank biggsby is like the best handcuffs in phase of a ball this season, too. So if you're not drafting sake one Barclay, if you're playing best ball or really deep rosters in your league, draft tank biggsby. Because if you don't believe in sake one, then you should probably believe in tank biggsby. Okay. I think we've both covered our eighth overall players where you have I'm on Russ St. Brown and I have Jackson Smith and Jigba. If you have no more thoughts on those names, let's jump to number nine. I've got Justin Jefferson. I'm ahead of Yahoo ADP at 11 best ball and a slot ahead as well. I think Tyler Murray is going to be a big deal. I think if you throw out the 2025 season from the Vikings, which was horrific. We're talking about Justin Jefferson averaging the most PPR points per game from 2022 to 2024. It's a three year sample over 20 points per game. If we remove the Josh Dobbs and Jaron Hall games, there's been a lot of, you know, really bad quarterback games from Justin Jefferson. If Tyler Murray is a lot closer to Kurt Cousin's Sam Darnal tier, which if you just have what have pulled us like a year ago, we would have said like absolutely he's in that tier. I think he's going to go back to where he was where at one point he had the most receiving yards per game NFL history around 100. Now that belongs to Pukin, Akua. They were 26 and points per game last year. I can see them being right around the top 10 of Tyler Murray that really comes along. And I don't even think that he has to come along that much. Justin Jefferson is going to go crazy. This is a very pass heavy offense. Always has been that will not change with Tyler Murray. And Tyler, don't forget he had the Andre Hopkins had 88 yards per game in 2020 with Kyler, another 80 yards per game for Deandre Hopkins. And then Tray McBride did have 72 yards per game as a damn tight end with Kyler Murray. So like this narrative that Kyler Murray can't get it done with his top option. I think there's a difference between like prime Justin Jefferson versus like the hope of Marvin Harris over the last couple seasons. Justin Jefferson's also my ninth rigged players who are back on track here together. We really are getting a discount and you have on to well on one of the best wide receivers in the league because this offense finished 26 and scoring last year. And you know, the year before that with Sam Darnold, they finished ninth in scoring in 2022. They finished eighth in scoring as you noted Nick Mullins, Josh Dobbs. A lot of other guys have played in this offense. It never looked worse than when Jay Jimo Carthage was until ball until Rosemary showed up. Then until brought up. Yes, that's fair. But despite all of that in like the 26 and scoring, Justin Jefferson still was a wide receiver four and team targets will still wide receiver five and air yards. He still had 16 in zone targets, but only scored two touchdowns off of those. So everything was still going in his direction. The design of the system was still to get Justin Jefferson the football. The quarterback just simply couldn't do it. So while I am not like a Calamari apologist, I think that his play has not been great over the past couple of seasons, especially at the start of last year. All I'm asking is for Calamari to follow the design of the play like trust. What Kevin O'Connor is building and you know, stay in tall versus pressure, fire over the middle of the field. And if he does that, then Justin Jefferson is going to get right back on track and make us look good because we both have him above the 11th overall pick right now on your eye. And I think that's what I'm going to do. I think that's what I'm going to do. [BLANK_AUDIO]
taking a stand. I feel really good about this after writing down all my notes. By the way, on Yahoo's ADPs at 21. So this is way, way different. I think if you can get him in the middle or the end of the second round, you're in really good shape. Want to go back to Andy Reed, do a little deep dive here. Back in the day, he had to Staley, Brian Westbrook, Jamal Charles, a Sean McCoy. If you guys were playing fantasy football then and you had those running backs on your team, you were winning your fantasy league. And at one point, before we got to Karim Haunt and Clyde Edwards, Laire and those guys, Andy Reed was thought of as like the running back fantasy creator. And he actually, like Kenneth Walker reminds me of Lashon McCoy. And the final three seasons was shady. And Andy Reed, his 17 game pace was 1800 scrimmage yards. There's no RB two on this team. Like Emmett Johnson is this big was not a fan of it as a prospect. And Marty Mercado is kind of a past catching change of pace guys. Like we're talking about very low end backups. And with Patrick Mahomb, I don't think he's moving all that great in camp. It's good to see him out there. I think he's going to play week one most likely. I don't think he's going to be himself bringing back the enemy who's better than Matt Nagy. And then for Kenneth Walker himself, I think the best offensive line is ever played behind those sea off stoplights lines throughout his rookie contracts weren't very good. I think Kenneth Walker is going to set a career high in targets by a lot. I think his rushing numbers are going to look fantastic in terms of efficiency. And I don't think that this offense could afford to not give them the ball 20 plus times per game. If that happens, he has a chance to finish in that top four mix. This is the old adage that there's always someone higher than you on a player that you think you're well above ADP on. And that's the case here. I mean, I've Ken Walker as a 13th overall player. And like I said, he's going as a ninth pick in the second round on Yahoo. He's a little bit ahead of that in best ball right now. I just see a phenomenal talent that once he was given the platform to showcase that in the most important games and like some of the most difficult defenses that he faced. Guess what? He ran through him. He ran around them and he ran over him. I know he was drafted last year as the running back 10. Some of that was because of us. And as they're running back 28. We were right by the way. Look at the suit. We were right in the end because if he was given the work, look what happens. And we always say Hayden that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks. When you look at the chiefs offense this year, the only substantial move that they made both in the draft and in for agency was bring in Ken Walker III. Like yeah, I understand if you look through their rushing attack last year in the underlying metrics, they had a high success right now. A lot of that was because of Patrick Holmes' scrambling and you know, if they needed two yards, Kreme Hunt could get them three. They were hitting kind of singles in the running game. But what they told you by paying K nine is that that doesn't matter very much that that only gets you so far and that you have to generate explosives, especially if you can't create them in the passing game. And guess what? Now they can do that because Ken Walker is a game breaker. He's a game changer. And I cannot wait until he is behind, you know, Creed Humphrey and Tray Smith and the rest of this offensive line because I'm with you. Like the history shows itself that Andy Reed whispers to running backs and they have. I mean, Kreme Hunt's rookie season was phenomenal. We get that from K nine then let's book. Yeah, last three games, the postseason games, he had 35, 21 and 18 fantasy points as the bell cow here. Like that's like the pathway that we're going for. I also believe that he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. Like I think that we're going to like look at him as like one of the top tier, like not a top like tier two tier three running back. I got like in the discussion as like a top five top seven running back across the. Yeah, I mean, he's averaged 17 and a half fantasy points per game over his last 26 games that he's reached 60% snaps. I expect him to reach 60% snaps in every single game this season. Yeah, I think this offense ranked like 20th and explosive carries last year. Disgusting. It's going to go to the moon. He also two years ago caught over four passes per game. It was across 11 like the sample size of him, like being able to catch passes. I think it's been proven out like he has an upside there. I'm right there with you. Now unfortunately, my 12th overall player is James Cook, who I'm actually slightly behind Yahoo's ADP on. They have him 10th overall and I have him 12th overall. To me, his fantasy appeal completely changed over the last two years since he took on the red zone rushing role among the running backs here for the bills. I mean, in 2023, he had one rushing score inside of the 10 yard line. Move on to 2024. Get the eighth most carries inside the 10 and 11 touchdowns. Last year, again, the eighth most carries inside the 10 yard line and six such downs. And then if you look at other underlying metrics for James Cook, they're all fantastic because guess what? This is a really freaking cool offense to run the football in. I mean, second in yards per rush, ninth in success rate, eighth in rate of runs of 10 plus yards. And then in terms of stuff rate, he had the second best mark in the league. So yes, they did lose their left guard and yes, they added DJ more in the passing game. But I still think that James Cook, despite me, you know, bringing up Ray Davis as a really nice backup running back every single year and some other guys they have on the roster too. James Cook, I think has established himself as like an explosive player and a very successful player in this offense. I got James Cook ranked 14th. He's somebody I've not been drafting a whole lot of. I don't have too many negative notes here. It's just breaking ties in favor of backs. I think have a higher ceiling just because he's just not caught that many passes. I think there's like a reason for that. It's like you have Josh Allen. You need to check the ball down. And I think adding DJ Moore, who I think they should be getting in the manufacturer touch department. Maybe Dalton Cuncade can say healthier this year than where he was this last season. Like those are the type of guys. Obviously, Clujsick here. You think think and dunk to and James Cook is like, yeah, yeah. And Ty Johnson plays like real snaps in like two-minute drill and those type of things where I think James Cook, something would have to drastically change with his role to finish as like the one. That's fine. He was the RB 6 last year. He led the NFL most carries per game, 19 and a half, rushing yards per game at 98 and a half. All of it was actually sustainable to like 5.1 yards per carry is totally reasonable when you play against or next to a duel threat. You're good. The offense of Ryan's good. The other things like you lose your offensive line coach, your coordinators now head coach for the first time. Like you lost a veteran guard. Like these little things. I don't think they're going to make that big of a difference here. But in terms of like dreaming of like some total, total crazy ceiling, I think I'd just see it more with like the Saquon Barkley Kenneth Walker, Devon H&Range rather than James Cook. But I think the floor is like completely established here. Him in the second round, it makes a lot of sense. Your point on him likely not having a running back one overall season in his range of outcomes is a fair one. Again, I would rank B. John, Jamir, CMC, Saquon and John Menteather with a higher likelihood of that. I mean, can I maybe then James Cook probably, but then I just look at this environment and think maybe this is hitting a triple, but maybe I'm okay. Yeah, exactly. And then someone else can get me to home base at the end. Yes. I think that's totally fair. I was just looking at his 80 p.s. 10th overall. I feel like usually there's a little bit higher of a ceiling, but his floor is outstanding when you're in this this offense. He's a very good player in the prime of his career. Four to five off. It's a line that are returning. Same play call there as it was this last season. He's good. You know, I don't have too many negative notes here. And if you play full PPR, Reeves noted this that James Cook has been a top 13 scorer in 20 of his 33 games over the past two seasons. Only B. John and Jamir Gibbs have more. Yep. So he keeps you in it every single week is one way of putting it. All right. Ken Walker is my 13th overall player. Who's your 13th overall player? I've got Devon H&R 13th overall here. I understand the downside for this. You lose Mike McDianne who is excellent. Malik Willis instead of Tuwa. I understand the concerns. I'm also looking at it where I know I have a superstar talent. I think the Dolphins offensive line is actually pretty good. I mean, Patrick Paul emerged as a really strong left tackle, really freak athlete, young player getting better. Aaron Brewer, Brandon Thorn said he was the best offense alignment in the NFL. You can watch a highlight tape of Aaron Brewer getting the second level and absolutely just shredding dudes. And then Ken and Proctor is their left guard. So if they're entire left side to me looks really good. Ken and Proctor's 360 pounds moves well. And I don't like slow with that much, but he at least was there with Devon H&R last year in Mike McDianne. They're going to pick up on, you know, get Devon H&R in the ball on the outside and like figure things out. And then you look at the receiving work. How could he not finish with 80 plus targets this year? I mean, look at the receivers. I think even with Malik Willis, doesn't move. Willis isn't he like near the bottom of the list in terms of targeting running backs. I know this is like a tiny sample we're talking with here, but typically scrambling quarterbacks do not throw to the running. I think it's inexcusable to not scheme up four targets to Devon H&R per game. No, no matter what. And like to me, it should even be higher than that. Like you, they're going to throw the ball every off and still throws the ball 25 plus times per game. Like you can only get so many targets to everybody else. I think it's way too easy to get Devon H&R in the ball. And last note, I'll say losing McDianne will does hurt. But having a dual having a dual threat quarterback next to you also opens up another about one plus yards per carry more. We see this across every single running back and scheme out there. We have not seen Devon H&R with a threat next to you. Like stopping the zone to read with Malik Willis in Devon H&R is going to be a problem. So I think there's there's no way that the dolphins could not build their entire offense around them. Even if they're bad, I think he still gets it done. This hurts me so much. You know last summer, I was just relentlessly drafting Devon H&R was one of my highest drafted players. If I was close to the turn, I think he's a superstar in the league, one of the more unsung superstars.
stars because he's not just an in-space runner who actually can take break tackles between the tackles to. He's very successful there. Hayden Devon Hins, my 18th overall player. I mean, maybe I'm wrong. I'm a bit terrified by this environment. And it goes from like the play collar to the offensive line and to losing Mike McDaniel. Like again, we just had Ryan on the show yesterday and Mike McDaniel in terms of 10 plus yard design runs over 70 games coached ranks third. This for Bobby Sloughic ranks, you know, 19. How much is that a Devon Hins stat though? I think that's the hard part to detangle here is like, obviously. Obviously, he's the most. But I mean, Mike McDaniel also was the architect of Kaushanahan's Russian game. Like he has been doing this for a very, very, very long time. And I know Bobby Sloughic during his time with Houston Texans. And I've actually been a bit of an apologist for Bobby Sloughic because that rookie season for it was he, J. Straut. He just never had that great of a Russian attack other than, you know, Joe Mixins. Let's say not twelfth overall player, brushing stuff. And then if you look at, you know, avoiding negative runs, Bobby Sloughic's 25th on that list. So I love Devon Hins. I actually like Malik Willis as a late round quarterback dart because the rushing gives you the floor and then the passing is the upside. Greg Dullsich is like a titan sleeper here. I just don't know among all this cluster of running backs. I mean, I think I have the most environmental questions about Devon Hins and maybe that's clouding my judgment here too much. I think this guy remember where we're starting off with the average 20 fantasy points per game last year, you know, in full. It's a totally different group. Top off for fantasy points, five fantasy points per game. He self finishes in this range. Like I think the starting point is so high. And I don't remember the dolphins lighting it up last year. And he was still the RB five on RB five usage. Well, because the receiving work, the Russian, the run system, like, all of it was so exceptional, so exceptional. I just don't think it's going to be. And look, like you said, I think we do forget that Bobby's look coached under Mike with Daniel last year. So maybe he did pick up on a lot of stuff, but their offense is the last time that Slavic had a system that he designed look totally different than what they ran last year. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Bobby's always got to set up here. Absolutely fully believe in you. And still, the dolphins are going to pick up touchdowns and yards this year in receptions. Like, we have to throw them to somebody like I think Devon Hins would probably be a good start. We do plan on doing a round two and three version of this as well. So I have a lot more to say about Devon Hins during that time. Unless I move them to the, you know, the 15th overall player, the 12th overall player by that point. Okay. I already mentioned that my 13th overall player is Ken Walker the third. So we're back to you Hayden. Who is your 14th? I that's where I had James Cook. So back to you. Okay. Well, this is where I have a more in Hampton. So maybe this is a similar conversation to one that we just had. Yeah. I mean, I don't want to just continue to wax poetic around Mike Daniel. Guess what? Like, that's a major factor in why I have him are in Hampton ranked as high. I mean, running backs attached to Mike Daniel over the last three years. Devon Hins ranked as the running back five and points per game last season running back 11 and points per game the year before that. And yeah, I mean, in 2023, he had both the running back three and running back four in points per game and just the environment that McDaniel brings to the system. I mean, in Miami, his offense is ranked fifth in yards per rush, fifth in success rate and first in explosive place. And so you look at a more in Hampton who has outstanding speed for a size. That's what pops off immediately for me. Like I don't think he necessarily has a great feel for the position in terms of setting up defenders or lanes. He has like a different way of attacking final contact, where he likes spins and twists and turns all around it. But I'm kind of at the point where I want to set aside my individual evaluation of a Baltimore in Hampton and just believe in what is being created here because the chargers also have the fifth best offensive line, according to Brandon Thorn. And if you give a more in Hampton space on 52 runs when he was contacted beyond the line of the streamage last season, he averaged 7.4 yards per carry, which is seventh in the league. And he's going to get that way more than 52 times this season. I got a more in Hampton, 20 second overall. This is how label this is like the scariest fade of the season for me because like he's got home run ability. He's a goal line back and this offense could go absolutely crazy here. I just think the possible reasons why he finishes closer as like a low end RB1 is this turns into maybe a little bit more of a committee than some of the other backs in there. I didn't love Hampton's past protection. This is like not the biggest concern. But I do think Camanii by Doll is good at that. And this might be more of a three running back rotation. And a lot of like the either no rotation or that the one to punch rotations of the other guys around them. But if he's so good, then like screw Camanii by Doll and Keaton Mitchell. And that's how he finishes the top five fans running back. Maybe I just don't love those odds versus where he's going. I was also looking at the mic make the handle stuff. This last season, defense is retreating. The rushing scheme a lot different and way fewer two high shell looks for the rush attempt. So that's going to be the interesting part of this offense is how our defense is going to be scared of the two high shell because that's where Mike McDaniel was absolutely ripping these runs across and just like get into the perimeter and bond the agent is picking up 10 yards per carry. Or do they rotate him in the box and then make Justin Herbert win over the top. And that would be pretty exciting too. I think it's going to be really good offense to kind of figure that out. But I do think that defenses have found some adjustments to like the peak seasons of 2023 and crowding the boxes is kind of one of them. I think you are right. If he plays more of the passing down situations and if Keaton Mitchell is not averaging eight carries per game and that's back to five to say four or five carries per game. And then I might be right if V doll is mixing in and Keaton Mitchell is getting eight carries per game. And then he's a electric player, but kind of inconsistent versus the other guys around. But I think a very difficult one. And if you wanted to rank him as high as like 10th overall, like I do see the upside here. At the same time, I think there's a chance where like everyone gets home in this offense. I mean, you know, the 2023 Miami dolphins with two at quarterback scored the second most points at 29 per contest. And again, that was when they had two top four scoring running backs and points per game. We know what Tyree Kill and Joe and Maudeau whoever else went through in there did that season too. And so that everything is so good that it's not, hey, you have to take from this guy to give to this guy that they all just get there with efficiency and stuff. And I think that is in the range of outcomes here. And I'll throw in the Nmaren Hampton caught five or more passes in four of his games played last year. So I think there's a chance where they have some heavier looks where they keep in Charlie Colar or they keep in Alec Engold to help with this protection. And then they run like two man routes on the field with a Marn Hampton like slipping out and like that's how we can get four or five six catches per game. That's a great point to O'Marion Hampton just his receiving work is hard to get a good feel for because as a receiver, I think he's very good. And then in past protection, I thought he had no clue where he was going last year. So it's like another one of these things where it's like, I know he's going to catch a bunch of passes. It has to be kind of skeamed up for him. But by community, I was pretty good guy to be in charge of that. So, all right, put a pin in that for around two, three conversation here in the next couple weeks. All right. I don't know if I'm out here with our 15th overall player. Who's yours? I got Ash and Gen T here. There's a couple other players. I have a consideration like mainly Derek Henry. I keep going back and forth. So maybe if you have some notes to kind of split this tie for me. Let's start with Gen T because he's 11th and best ball ADP. He's 12th and Yahoo ADP and then I know a lot of sharp people even have him higher than that. The starting point last year, RB 11 usage, like did not come off the field finishes the RB 16 and half PPR. Obviously, the offensive line, Chip Kelly, everything was a stone cold disaster. That's going to get better. That's enough for him to finish the top 10 fantasy running back this year. If he doesn't, that is a really, really bad bad sign. My individual opinion on Ash and Gen T is that I also thought he was making bad decisions and did not have the play speed versus all the guys who's being drafted against. And I fear that he's going to be closer to Josh Jacobs who I really like his rushing style, but it's a different tier player and the offensive line is getting better. Linder bomb, Colton Miller coming back at left tackle. But the other guard spots, I think are still pretty bad. DJ glazed the right tackle. That's still pretty bad out there. And the entire offense like still could be, be pretty bad. Even if we think that they're going to get a little bit better. So there was a pro case here is your 15th overall player. Well, he's not coming off the field. So there's that. And I could be wrong. That's the other thing is like he could be awesome. He's supposed to be awesome. I just wasn't getting the senses that he's going to like go crazy in terms of like now he's just like rip and off explosive left and right. And it's like sake one bark Lee. I just don't think I saw sake one bark Lee on tape last year even taking in the obviously bad environment. Yeah. What I loved about Ash and Gen T coming out of Boise State was his run stamina. How we could break like three, four tackles in the same run. And that would allow him to get you know, 40, 50 yard touchdown runs. And then it wouldn't just be one time in a game. It would be multiple times in the game. And that style is just more difficult in the NFL. And it's especially difficult when probably at best you have an average offensive line. And last year obviously maybe the league worst offensive line. It's interesting. I'm looking at our colleagues here at Yahoo. And you and I rank Ash and Gen T by far the lowest year 15th overall. I'm at 17th overall. I don't want to out people. But like Joel Smith has him a ninth overall. Harmon and Boone have him 11th overall. That's just too rich for me. Again, I just don't see how anyone can take him over. Stay one Barclay even if you know, Ash and Gen T plays 88% of the snaps this year. I just think.
like from an environmental standpoint and like big play potential, uh, say one's just a better pick here. I agree. There was a really cool research by Sam Hopin. If you guys want to go read this column where he was looking at yards before contact, which everyone's like, that's our offensive line stat into some degree. It is an offensive line stat. He was trying to come up with like ways to like factor in what should the expected yards before contacts. And when he was looking at that, it's like, okay, are you running towards the perimeter? You get more yards before contact. That makes sense. How many defenders in the box is there that makes sense to account for? He started accounting for all these variables, including the offensive line, including the dual threat ability of the quarterback. And then he looked at what are the running backs doing? Accounting for all the environment and Ash and Gentip is the worst running back in football in terms of avoiding yards before contact running into defenders, staying behind the line of scrimmage for too long where for players are coming and rallying before him. It was like the only running back to finish like below a certain point. And that's concerning because that's kind of what I was seeing on tape and like if you like the really, really sickos and that know all this modeling stuff, that's what they're coming up with to. It makes me a little bit nervous that he's going to be a fine player, but not, you know, the next beach on sake one, those type of guys. Can we just take a moment for strategy corner real quick? Because if you're, I don't know, pick 10 11 12. Again, there's this cluster of running backs. You can go from James Cugg, Genti, Sequan, HN, Chase Brown, Hampton, Derrick, Henry choose two of your favorites going with two of those and comparing that to let's say the running backs in round five and six, which are, you know, Dave Montgomery, Trevor on Henderson, Quince on Judkins, Bucky Irving to, you know, round six. That's Chuba Hubbard, Giderian Price versus, you know, the wide receivers that are in rounds five and six, Tara McCorn, Luther Burton, Christian Watson, Roma Dunes, a Mike Evans, I mean, let's go on and on. Like I would much rather take the package that it's those two early running backs and the two later water receivers, first the two early water receivers, or even just one early water receiver and then having to take one of those running backs and that ranged. I see the same thing. I always even say the round three, four turn has every one of the wide receivers that we are trying to break ties and favor Jalen Waldo, say Malik neighbors in that tier lad McConkey and Mekke Bukke, you can pick a veteran in a young guy like Zay flowers. There's literally 12 of them. And you can go wider super wide receiver and that range as well. So yeah, I think Derek Henry is like the one name and be a regret not like involving in here just because, you know, he just, you know, finished as the RB eight with Lamar Jackson. I've been playing that season. And he's projected for 12 and a half touchdowns in the betting markets. That's the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL in the projections. And you know, he's not a top 15 guy and half. Keep your that might come back to buy this again. Yeah, maybe I regret it too because he's not my 15th overall player. But hey, that's a great lead into again, when we do the round two, three show and you guys should subscribe to watch that one when it comes out and hit your feed. My 15th overall players chase Brown. Okay. And this is kind of again, drafting the environment over the individual talent. Like as an individual player, I don't think chase Brown belongs in that group of all the running backs that we just listed. So again, maybe that comes back to bite me. But what you are getting here is just a team that scores a whole bunch of points and literally zero competition. And it's not just competition between the 20s. It's also once you get inside the red zone where chase Brown played 74% of the snaps last year, which is the running back five on the season. Obviously it was a bad start to last year. We all kind of regretted taking chase Brown and that was, you know, aided by Joe Burrow going down. But once Joe Flacco was named the starter instead of Jake Browning, they averaged. He averaged 105 yards from scrimmage over the last 11 weeks. That was eighth most among all backs. And then when Joe Burrow returned, you know, peak form of this team, Apex Mountain, chase Brown went nuclear. I mean, he was seven, excuse me, second in running back points per game. And hit, you know, 20 points per contest and half PPR scoring, which is exactly what you want. So the environment is simply sensational. They've returned all five starting offensive lineman. If they stay healthy, then at worst, I think there's like a league average offensive line. And again, that's just a situation that I want pieces of. And chase Brown in round two is really appealing to me. Over the past two seasons, there's 21 games with Joe Burrow. He's the RB 12 and RB five usage. So like that goes to your point where he's like not like the greatest player ever. But he's he's a starting level player in the league. Just in 2025, though, there were six games with Burrow. He was the RB five on RB four overall usage. So teams getting better, the offensive lines way better now than it was before. Like that's where like chase Brown could like become one of these guys. That's like a no doubt about it. Top 10 fans, he's running back and then we're like looking at our gente teams. We're like, damn, like I'm watching Raiders games versus Bengals games. And I got the Raiders running back. Here's a crazy stat for you from Reaves. The Bengals are currently favored in 15 games this year heading into the season. They could win the Super Bowl. Like obviously that's how good this team is. 15 games are favored in and you know, running back points are pretty freaking good in games that you win. Oh, and guess what? If they have to throw the ball and they're trailing only Devon H and B. Jason Robinson and Jameer Gibbs have more receptions than chase Brown over the past two seasons. And I got the inverse of that three or three or fewer yards to go. He was the RB two and Rush are over expected. He was RB eight and rushing success rate across all of the Burrow games. Three yards, four yards doesn't matter. So the efficiency rebounded as a rusher. I think that's a credit to like the Amarius Mims picks in the first round. Just kind of figure out some of the guard spots that they have out there where all of a sudden, the offensive line, you can like credibly say it's like a league average offensive line, not, you know, 30th in the NFL. Yeah, but you know, keep drafting players on bad teams out of them. I got to need to move up. I need to move up chase. If you read my chase Brown and my action, Jettie, you think you'd be like, it's not even close. So yeah. Oh, I love it. I absolutely love looking over on. Uh, let's save the best for last. You ready? Stats vs Film returns tomorrow. So you get a Stats vs Film episode for your weekend. So if you made it over an hour into this episode, let us know in the comments down below who we did not mention in our top 15s that you have in your top 15s. And let's say the biggest home run swing and shout, uh, I'll give a big massive comment to down below. So let us know who you rank in your top 15. That's going to do it for us. Shout to weaves and Moe show behind the scenes. I know all of you want our rankings. We'll have an announcement for that very, very soon for all of you to grab them and use them in your drafts. this year. All right everyone up the village we'll talk to you guys soon. See you.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The top 12-15 fantasy football draft picks are discussed, with agreement on the top four but divergence starting at pick five.
Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are ranked 1-2, with Gibbs favored due to Detroit’s higher projected scoring and offensive line upgrades.
Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua round out the top four, both offering elite upside with healthy quarterbacks and high target shares.
Christian McCaffrey is ranked fifth or sixth, with concerns about his age (30), 450 touches last season, and declining underlying metrics.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is highlighted as a safe pick due to consistent 100+ catch seasons and favorable red-zone usage.
Strategy focuses on ceiling cases in the back half of Round 1, as the top tier players offer game-breaking potential.
Summary:
This transcription features a fantasy football draft analysis for the upcoming season, focusing on the top 12-15 overall picks. The hosts, Hayden and a co-host, agree on the first four selections: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua. Gibbs is ranked first due to his explosive upside, especially in games without David Montgomery, and Detroit’s high-scoring offense.
Robinson follows, with potential to be the overall RB1 if he secures more goal-line work, but his team’s lower projected scoring creates slight hesitation. Chase is third, offering elite consistency and red-zone production with a healthy Joe Burrow, while Nacua is fourth, with historic receiving yards per game and potential for unmatched fantasy numbers if he gains more end-zone targets. The discussion then diverges at pick five, where Christian McCaffrey is ranked fifth or sixth.
Despite his past dominance, concerns about his age, heavy workload, and poor efficiency metrics make him riskier. Amon-Ra St. Brown is also mentioned as a safe top-five option due to his reliable production and favorable red-zone targets.
The hosts emphasize the importance of targeting ceiling cases in the back half of Round 1, as the top tier offers clear advantages, and they advise managing risk versus upside when drafting running backs with high usage.
FAQs
Jahmyr Gibbs is the consensus number one pick. He has high upside with career-high volume expected, a better offensive line, and a weak defense that should lead to shootouts.
Bijan Robinson is ranked second due to his 20 points per game average when reaching 15 touches and his 79% snap share. He could become number one if he gains more red zone carries, as he has only had 23 carries inside the 5-yard line in three seasons.
Ja'Marr Chase averages 21.5 PPR points per game with Joe Burrow healthy, ranks as a top-five receiver in points per game in four of five seasons, and benefits from a strong Bengals offense with a healthy Burrow.
Puka Nacua has the highest receiving yards per game in NFL history at 95, and averages 23.8 PPR points per game. He could be the most valuable player if he gains more red zone targets, though Davante Adams currently dominates those opportunities.
Christian McCaffrey is coming off 450 touches, which historically leads to injuries or production drops the next season. He also had poor underlying metrics last year, but his upside remains high if he stays healthy.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has had 100+ catches in each of the last four seasons and benefits from playing in a high-scoring Lions offense with many indoor games. He led the NFL with 34 red zone targets last season, boosting his touchdown potential.
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