The dollar's slide and what it does to your foreign holdings
44m 35s
In this episode of InvestTalk, host Luke Guerrero addresses a range of investor questions and market topics. The primary stock analysis focuses on BWX Technologies (BWXT), a nuclear technology company held in client portfolios. Despite reaching a 52-week low and experiencing a valuation decline from 54x to 32x forward earnings, the company shows strong fundamentals: 18% year-over-year revenue growth, a record $8.4 billion backlog, and a plan to spin off its medical business, which the host views as a positive simplification. Guerrero remains bullish, seeing the pullback as a buying opportunity. The show also discusses the broader market, noting a down day with small caps leading losses, while energy and metals outperformed. A key segment highlights the trap of money market funds: with yields around 3.5% and inflation at 3.5–4%, real returns are negative, and the $7.93 trillion parked in these funds is losing purchasing power. The host warns against anchoring bias and emphasizes that cash should be used for liquidity, not returns. Additionally, the dollar's slide to a two-month low against the euro is boosting unhedged international fund returns, with currency effects driving 30–50% of return variability; Guerrero recommends a mix of hedged and unhedged exposure. Other analyses cover Bluebird (BLBD) as a solid but volatile small-cap, Nucor (NUE) as a well-run steelmaker, and Zoetis (ZTS), which the host passes on due to guidance cuts. For international exposure, IXUS is preferred over TRIGX for its broader diversification and lower costs. Finally, the SEC's potential elimination of quarterly reports could increase information asymmetry, particularly for smaller companies.
This is InvestTalk from KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day
at a time. Here's your host, Luke Guerrero.
Good afternoon, fellow investors, and welcome to today's episode of InvestTalk. I'm your
host, Luke Guerrero, and it's Thursday, August 20th, 2026. Now, we only have a couple shows
left in the week, and we have plenty to do today, because each and every day we come
to InvestTalk and hopefully leave a better and more informed investor. In order to do
that, we bring you some educational items, some actionable material, but most importantly,
we answer your burning finance and investment questions. So, before we talk about today's
market performance and run down those show topics, let's tackle our first caller question now.
Justin, Luke, calling in regards to BWX Technologies Incorporated, ticker symbol BWXT,
just reached a 52-week low, looking for some nuclear exposure. How do you feel
on picking some up on a 50% pickup?
Maybe waiting to see how the market is and then dive in 100% if it does go lower. Thoughts? Thank
you. BWXT is BWX Technologies. It's actually a name that we hold for clients in one of our
strategies. It's a nuclear play. It is a nuclear technology company, and the reason why we like it
is because it's actually the US government's sole source manufacturer for nuclear reactors,
for naval subs, for aircraft.
And especially at a time in heightened military spending, there's a huge backlog. They have like
an 80% increase in their backlog year over year. Recently, and really when I say recently, I mean
past couple months, because they did reach an all-time high in April. So, since April 17th,
it's been on a bit of a downtrend year to date. It's down 949 over the past three months. It's
down 435 over the past two weeks. It's down 435, but that's coming off of years where it's up 21,
32, 45, 55% respectively. And it had gotten to a point where the valuation was a bit elevated,
and it's now come down to more reasonable territory compared to where it has been.
It's trading about 32 times price to forward-looking earnings right now. At one point,
it was trading as high as 54. Now, taking a look at its most recent earnings,
which I believe was August 3rd, so not too long ago, things look pretty good. Revenue was up 18%
year over year. 9% of that was organic revenue, and that was in line with estimates. Earning per
share was up 5% year over year. That actually beat by about 2.7%. And free cash flow was at
115 million. EBITDA was up 7% year over year. Over the past five years, it looks like they've had 10.7%
annualized revenue growth. That's pretty solid. They announced they're selling their medical
business. Oftentimes, when companies like this start to spin off part of their segments that
aren't part of their core business, I find that to be a bullish thing. It's essentially creating
this portfolio simplification. And so to me, this has just really been a bit of re-rating
with respect to valuation. I mean, I don't really see much negative here. Maybe you
can say, okay, if the long-term EPS growth is, let's see, around 4.2% growth. I mean,
they're still sitting at five year over year. Again, revenue up 18%. The leverage is a little
bit weak. Earnings per share is trailing revenue growth, meaning maybe in terms of cost, they're
not able to realize as good as margins as the market would like. But to me, you have a company
with a huge backlog that is still growing rapidly and saw 8.4 billion in that record total backlog
and is spinning off a division that I think is best left towards another company. So we're still
bullish on this name. We like this name. It's a bit more reasonable in terms of valuation than
where it has been over the past couple months. And when it starts to find a bottom here, I frankly
see this as yet another buying opportunity.
That is BWXT. Thanks for the call.
We had a great show for you yesterday. We looked into small caps and how they're starting to
wake up and how in a lot of ways, this rally that we've seen for the better part of two years is
finally maybe broadening. This leadership rotation historically is a good signal. And most importantly,
we talked about how you should think about sizing your exposure without feeling like you're just
we also answered a listener question on ticker ROL, which is Rollins Inc. If you happen to miss
yesterday's episode, I encourage you to check it out to get all those answers to those important
finance and investment questions. And remember, the best way to never miss an episode of InvestTalk
is to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
Now on to today, where we have, I think, another important story. This time we'll be talking about
the dollar slide and what it does to your foreign holdings. We have seen the dollar fall
to a two month low against the euro. So we'll explain why currency moves quietly drive a large
share of international fund returns and whether hedged or unhedged exposure makes more sense
moving forward. Also, we got a couple other stories, including one on how market real yields
just went negative. So cash is losing, even though it feels pretty safe right now. Talk a little bit
about the SEC's proposal to potentially kill quarterly earnings reports. Should we have time at the
end of the show? We'll talk a little bit about IRA RMDs, specifically inherited IRA RMDs,
and what not taking them can mean for you. We also have plenty of questions to answer,
including voice bank call on ETFs, a broad question about how to analyze an ETF. And another
on iShares core MSCI, a total international stock ETF or IXUS. And as always, some questions that
come in from the comment section of the Invest Talk YouTube channel. All right, we are headed
into a break. It is a short break. I remind you, you can call anytime and leave your questions on
the Invest Talk voice bank. And if you're listening via our live stream right now, we're on AM 1220 in
the Bay Area. Give me a call now at 888-99-CHART. When we come back, we'll talk about today's market
rain or shine. There's always value in the Invest Talk podcast. 888-99-CHART.
Bad day overall, I would say in the market. Not necessarily bad, right? Down days are buying
opportunities, but certainly negative across the board. We saw the Dow down 131, the S&P down 86,
the NASDAQ down 1%. And small caps, which led the way yesterday on the upside, led the way on
the downside today, down 1.34%. In a lot of ways, we saw a reversal of some of the trends we saw
yesterday. Memory was a bit better. Semis kind of all over the place. Big tech, which had a good
day yesterday, was actually lower today. We saw staple retailers lower, saw home builders lower.
Then we saw an outperformance from energy and commodity chemicals. We saw ag doing well today
as well. So from a sector perspective, it
was a bit of a reversal from Wednesday trading. And then bonds, which there has been a lot of
focus on, well, a bit weaker on the yield side. Yields up two to six basis points. The 30-year-old
actually gave back more than half of the decline that we saw on Wednesday. And then metals doing
pretty well. Gold up 50 bps. Silver up 3.5%. Crude oil up about 2.9% on the day.
And really, it has just been a focus on rates. I mean, the long end, giving back much of Wednesday's
decline, really not something that Scott Besson wants to see, not something the Treasury wants
to see, especially given the unexpected buyback boost. There is and continues to be a lot of
skepticism about whether or not the Treasury will even be able to, and frankly, I don't think they
can, offset the stock price. So I think it's a good thing that the Treasury is able to do that.
These ongoing structural pressures that are moving yields higher. And then you add on to that
another day of high oil prices in the wake of the President's overnight economic threats to Iran,
and diesel prices moving higher as well. You're having that inflationary pressure continue to be
a problem, meaning that, well, the Fed is unlikely to be able to cut rates. We're seeing rate
expectations actually reprice a bit higher. Now, on the data front, today saw a new
batch of softer results out of retail. We saw more tariff refund noise.
And that's really played into some of the more recent concerns about this waning tailwind from earlier in the year where we had outsized tax refunds.
We had initial claims come in a bit better than the consensus, though continuing claims was a bit higher than expected.
We had August Philly Fed Manufacturing posting a surprise increase from the July print and actually having a headline at the highest level in more than five years.
Looking ahead, flash PMIs for August cap off the week on Friday.
Manufacturing PMI expected to hold steady at 53.9, while services PMI expected to fall to 53.9 from 54.6.
All right, let's answer a question that came to or rather through our YouTube channel.
And it says, can you give me your opinion of Bluebird Corporation that is ticker BL?
B.D.
Bluebird Corporation is, pause for dramatic effect while my screen loads, a $2.149 billion market cap company that manufactures school buses.
Looks like they're actually America's leading electric and alternative school bus manufacturer.
And so they have a big business that creates not just EVs.
But propane, compressed natural gas, as well as diesel platforms as well.
Now, it is based in Georgia.
It's had a bit of a rough three months, down about 6.08% over the past few months.
But still have 11.06% over the past 52 weeks and 30.49% over the past year.
They recently reported earnings on August 5th.
Revenue.
It was up 29.9% year over year earnings per share.
Missed, however.
EBITDA margin was about 13.8%.
You saw EBITDA actually beating by about 8.5%.
And guidance kind of hit towards the midpoint of where it was expected.
They recently closed an acquisition of MicroBird, which is a Canadian minibus unit.
Now.
So, I think that oftentimes when school districts are trying to cut down on costs,
this is one way they can go about it.
And there's a reason why this company has record profitability,
as well as what looks like a 900 plus EV bus backlog,
with a five-year earnings per share annualized growth rate of,
am I reading this correctly?
53.9%.
Woo!
That is incredibly impressive.
At the same time, you have margins expanding.
And a company trading at a 13.2 price-to-forward-looking earnings.
I would say that, obviously, a lot of these trends can reverse pretty quickly
for a small-cap company like this.
You can also understand that as rates move higher,
things become a bit more expensive.
It asymmetrically affects companies like this.
Right?
You have a federal grant program that an administration that is more,
you know,
keen to cut that may damp down some of the demand for these products.
But either way, you can't deny the growth here.
You know, this is honestly a company that I've looked at before,
but this is one that's a bit interesting to me.
I would love to look at a bit more here.
But from what I can see, it looks like a pretty solid company,
certainly on a solid footing with respect to its balance sheet as well.
So, I'm interested.
That is Bluebird Corporation, ticker BLBD.
Thanks for the call.
Thanks for watching.
Headed into a break.
When we come back, more answers to your finance and investment questions
here on InvestTalk.
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Now, I want to talk about something that is probably going to resonate for a lot of people
because a lot of investors are sitting in money market funds right now
thinking they're being smart, they're being conservative, they're being responsible.
And the reality is they're losing money.
There was a recent report from ICI and it showed the total money market fund assets rose $18.26
billion to $7.93 billion.
Retail money fund assets alone are at $3.1 trillion.
And the Fed's Z1 financial accounts show household money fund balances reach $5.21 trillion in Q1.
That's roughly double where they sat in Q1 of 2022.
Americans have absolutely piled into cash.
The problem is what you're earning on it.
Money funds are used.
You're yielding roughly 3.5 right now.
Down from over 5 in 2024 before the Fed started cutting.
And CPI is running at 3.5.
3.8 in April.
4.2 in May.
Even with the latest readings moderating slightly, the real return on money market funds has turned negative.
Your 3.5 yield minus 3.5 to 4% inflation at best is zero.
That means that $7.93 trillion sitting in money market funds is in aggregate just losing purchasing.
And that's the trap.
The number on your statement is higher than it was last month.
But the groceries, the gas, the insurance premiums, the healthcare costs, they're all rising faster than that number.
This is what we call anchoring bias.
Investors who part cash when money funds yielded 5.3 are still sitting there at 3.5 because, well, 3.5 still sounds pretty good.
It's still positive.
They're mentally healthy.
The central benchmark is the zero-interest world before the pandemic, when savings accounts paid nothing.
Relative to that, 3.5 is great.
But relative to inflation, which is the only comparison that matters for purchasing power, it's underwater.
The data on small CDs actually confirms how rate-sensitive these flows are.
CDs under $100,000 ticked up to $1.02 trillion in April after six straight months of declines.
They've fallen $172 billion since the cutting cycle began.
Small savers chase even modest yield changes in either direction, which tells you the allocation is not strategic.
It's reflexive.
Whatever paid the most last month gets the money.
That's not planning.
That's being stuck in the same strategy.
Now, I want to be clear.
Cash has a job in a portfolio.
Liquidity, optionality, the job is having dry power to deploy when opportunities arise or to cover expenses without selling investments at the wrong time.
Those are legitimate, valuable functions, but the job is not return.
And the mistake I see investors treating money markets as a return-generating allocation instead of a parking lot.
If 30% of your portfolio is sitting in money funds earning 3.5, while inflation is 4, you're not being conservative.
You're guaranteeing a loss of purchasing power.
You're just doing it slowly enough that it doesn't feel like a loss.
All right, why don't we pivot back to the InvestTalk Voice Bank.
You know the number, 888-99-CHART.
Hey, Luke and Justin.
I'm just calling regarding owning physical silver versus owning some of the miners.
Right now, I'm in SIVR, and I wanted to get your opinion on AG, which is First Majestic Silver.
I just want to know kind of the reason why you guys prefer to hold the miners versus like the physical metal itself.
So just let me know what you think of AG.
Thank you.
Yeah, so, you know, I don't have any particular preference.
The problem with holding the physical silver, I will say, because of how thinly traded silver markets are relative to gold markets,
they're a lot more open to manipulation from hedgers, from liquidity providers.
And so holding physical silver doesn't necessarily give you a representative slice of what the true in-store, you know, buying and selling of silver might do.
It's the same way that gold does because of liquidity and spreads and all those things.
But in the same way that I answered the question yesterday when we were talking about gold, the real difference here is what kind of exposure you want.
If you want exposure to the spot price of silver, silver ETFs are a good way to do it.
The benefit of that is you don't have to deal with individual company risks, specific risk, idiosyncratic risks of businesses, mines collapsing, any of these things.
You just get exposure to the metal.
But if you want to have
with high conviction, leveraged exposure to that metal,
then you want to invest in the businesses
that silver is the product that they're mining,
the product that they're selling.
But understand the inherent risks of that.
It's already an incredibly volatile asset class.
Owning a silver miner that is majority silver miner
would lead you to have an even more volatile experience.
Thanks for the call.
On the next Invest Talk, we'll look into this story,
financial innovation is now a Fed problem.
We'll break down what tokenized money
and instant payments actually change
about the plumbing of the financial system
and what investors should and should not read into.
That's tomorrow.
For now, I'm Luke Guerrero,
ready to take your calls anytime at 888-99-CHART.
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So the euro hit a three-month high yesterday
after the U.S. Treasury decided to announce
it was doubling its bond.
The U.S. Treasury said it was doubling its bond.
The U.S. pounds, into Swiss franc, into whatever currency is required in order to buy things.
When those stocks pay dividends or appreciate in value, the gains are in those foreign currencies.
Then what the fund calculates its NAV in dollars, those foreign currency gains get converted back
into dollars at the current exchange rate. So the dollar weakens between when you bought and
when you sell, you get a tailwind. Your euros and yen and pounds are worth more in dollar terms.
The dollar strengthens, you get a headwind, same stock performance, different returns.
For an unhedged international equity fund, currency moves can drive 30 to 50% of total
return variability. And in some years, the currency effect is actually bigger than the
effect of the equity returns themselves. And so it's important because right now,
the dollar is weakening. The euro has climbed from about 113 in late June to about 116.
And the ECB is expected to hike rates in September. The market is pricing an 84%
probability of that. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to hold. That widening rate differential,
Europe hiking, the U.S. standing still, favors Europe. And the Treasury buyback announcement
this week added fuel by signaling the U.S. is willing to increase dollar supply to push
down long-term yields. So if you're in an unhedged international fund,
which is the default for most retail products, the dollar slide is quietly boosting your returns
right now. European stocks denominated in euros are converting into more dollars. Japanese stocks
from yen into more dollars. And then if you're an EM, emerging markets, they tend to appreciate
when the dollar weakens and commodity prices rise. And so you're benefiting even more.
So given all this, hedge or unhedged?
Well, if you're hedged, you use currency derivatives to neutralize the exchange rate
effect itself. You get the pure local market return without any currency overlay. If you
look all the way back to the dawn of time, I'm joking, back to like 2022 when the dollar surged
to 20-year highs against the euro, hedged international funds dramatically outperformed
their unhedged peers because the dollar's strength was erasing the equity returns.
This year, the opposite is playing out. Unhedged is beating hedged. And so here's really how you
got to think about it. If you believe the dollar has further to fall, and the structural case for
dollar weakness, I think, is strong, given the massive deficits we have, the insane debt to GDP
ratio, the treasury actively pursuing lower long-term rates, de-dollarization trend we've
been talking about for so long, then unhedged international exposure makes sense. You're
getting the equity return plus the currency appreciation. Converse to that, if you think
that the dollar is moving stronger from here, it's going to stabilize, maybe the war escalates or the
Fed hikes, maybe the safe haven bid returns, then hedging protects you from giving back the
currency gains. Honestly, most people should probably hold a mix. Your core allocation for
your portfolio that's permanently allocated internationally, that 20% to 30% we've been
talking about for quite some time, should probably be unhedged because over multi-decade horizons,
currency effects tend to wash out.
What you shouldn't do is ignore currency entirely. When you see your international fund up eight this
quarter and think, great stock picking, understand that maybe three of those percentage points came
from the dollar falling, not from the fund manager's skill, and then the dollar eventually
bounces and it will because currencies mean revert, well, those three points come back the
other way. The dollar slide is not just an FX story, it's a portfolio story that matters to you.
Right now, it's working in your favor if you have international exposure, enjoy it, but understand
what's driving it because the same forces that's giving you a tailwind today could be giving you a
headwind tomorrow.
All right, let's answer a live call. Looks like we got Jeff from Kansas on the line. You got a
question about NUE. Do you own it? Are you looking to buy it?
I'm thinking about picking some up. It looks like it's dropped over the
last few days, probably because of the tariff announcements. Trying to think and decide
whether or not, you know, wait till it hits the bottom and then pick it up. Is that a good
strategy? How long do you think I should be waiting? Is there a specific target price?
Sure. Let's take a look at Nucor Corporation. That is N-U-E. It is America's largest steel producer
company. So they operate steel mills, create downstream steel products. They have a raw
materials division. So they're involved all throughout North America, not just in the United
States, in selling these steel products. Geographically speaking, 100% of their revenue
comes from North America. And they've been doing real well over the past year or so. I mean,
revenue is up on an annual basis about 10% year over year.
Stock's up 67.62 over the past 52 weeks. Net sales in their most recent quarter
was up 23% year over year. That beat estimates. EBITDA hit 2 billion. And they saw record Q2 steel
shipments at 91% utilization. So the higher average selling prices are really helping this company.
And in fact, you know, off of earnings, which were at the end of July,
management said that they're expecting higher consolidated earnings in Q3 as well.
Now, one thing that you might see as a flag, which I'm seeing here is there's been a lot of net
selling from insiders. But I mean, this thing is reaching an all-time high here back when it was
trading just under $300 a share a mere days ago. You know, it was a healthy pullback, 3.32%. But
you know, from a valuation perspective, I mean, this company is still pretty much near the average
price that it's been over the past five years. Not too expensive and not too cheap. The momentum
trend is certainly still strong and positive here. It's crushing its industry, outperforming by about
13%. You know, I like this company. It's got very little debt. It's got only $7 billion in debt on a
$56 billion market cap company with projected $3.35 billion in free cash flow. I think even at these
multiples, it appears to be a pretty solid deal because in a lot of ways, this is really America's
best run steelmaker on the back of the best performance it's had for two consecutive quarters.
So, you know, I like it. I think a pullback here is probably a bit healthy. But given its
valuation, I don't know how much more it has to run down should this growth keep up. So,
I'm a fan of it. That is Nucor Corporation, ticker N-U-E. Thanks for the call.
All right. From time to time, we get questions on our InvestTalk, or from HubSpot, that is.
And HubSpot is our questions from our website, investtalk.com. So here's one that came in
actually just today, and it is on ticker ZTS. It says,
Sotus Inc. is aggressively buying back shares at current prices. I would appreciate your insight.
All right. This company has, in fact, been buying back shares in a pretty aggressive
way recently. It is the world's largest animal health company.
Typed in the wrong ticker there. Yeah. World's largest animal health company.
They have not been doing well in terms of their performance over the past three years from a
pricing perspective. You are seeing revenue falling year over year. You are seeing earnings
per share remaining steady. Return on equity is growing. Margins are steady as well. It is a $31
billion market cap company with only about $9 billion in debt, so nothing too crazy there from
a balance sheet perspective. But I mean, they reported earnings on August 6th, and things
weren't great. They missed on revenue. They had organic revenue down 1% year over year.
Their companion animal division, which is their largest division, saw revenue down 11%.
Year over year within the United States. They even revised their guidance downward.
So I don't know. I mean, this thing's been trading sideways since the beginning of,
let's see, it's been trading sideways since the beginning of May, but there's not a lot of like
here. You got a company that has had poor performance. It's trading at the low end of
its valuation, yes. But again, these are relatively low. So I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
So if earnings reset, certainly it can head higher. That's what happens when you divide
one number by another number. If the denominator goes down, the price is going to follow. And so
I'm not really in favor of buying a company that has just delivered its second consecutive guidance
cut. So for me, Zoetis, ticker ZTS, going to have to pass. All right, why don't we fit in a
another voicemail question now? Hello, InvestWalk. This is Joe from Brooklyn. I'm calling in regards
to an international fund. I'm looking for international exposure. And I'm choosing
between either ETF or a mutual fund. The mutual fund I was looking at was T. Rowe Price, T-R-I-G-X
International Fund, or an iShare fund. I
X-U-S, which is iShare Core International. I would like your take on which one would be
a better choice. I look forward to your answer on that. And thank you very much for your service.
Okay, why don't we start with T-R-I-G-X, which is the T. Rowe Price
International Value Fund. Pretty expensive, 63 basis points. It tracks the World X-U-S large-cap
value index. Looks like over the past year, it's underperformed. It's underperformed on the three
year, the five year, and the 10 year. So this is a fund that is perennially underperforming its
benchmark. But it's trying to give you a bit of value exposure. And it's really only focused on
the large-cap space. Now let's look at iX-U-S, which gives you an extremely broad portfolio
of international securities. It is not a large-cap space. It is not just within large-caps. It also invests in mid and small-caps. And its
expense ratio is seven basis points. It has outperformed its benchmark on the one-month,
quarter-to-date, three-month, year-to-date, one-year time frame, really all across the board
from what I'm seeing here. In terms of its performance, its benchmark is an IMI, which is
an investable market index. So it's going to include large, small, and mid-caps as well.
International exposure, and both of these are X-U-S funds. I'm definitely going to lean towards
iX-U-S for multiple reasons. One, gives you small and mid-cap exposure. And two, it's like 55 basis
points cheaper and does pretty well compared to its benchmark over the long term. That is
iX-U-S and T-R-I-G-X. My vote goes for iX-U-S. Thanks for the call. Looks like we got plenty
of time. Maybe a question on ETFs? I just had a simple question about how best to analyze an ETF
to decide whether or not to buy. I get some of the ratios you want to look at for individual
companies, but some of them don't directly apply. So I'm wondering what translates and what doesn't
into analyzing an ETF. Would love to hear you guys' answer. Look forward to it.
Sure. So I think you can't really look at ETFs through the same lens of how you look at a company
generally. More diversified ways to invest in some sort of asset class. Maybe you want small
caps. Maybe you want the aerospace industry. Maybe you want software names. And so the way
that you should be looking at whether or not an ETF is one you want to invest in is a multitude
of things. You know, there are companies like Morningstar that give them grades, which are good,
but you really need to dive in and understand what those ETFs are investing in. So if I'm looking for
small cap, US small cap fund, the S&P 600, which calls itself a small cap index, has a lot of midcap
exposure. So if I purely want small cap exposure, that's not where I should go. Your question should
be how good of a job does this specific ETF do at attacking the asset class or theme or whatever
thing I'm trying to invest in? That's number one. Number two, do I understand what it's doing? Is it
a good investment? Does it do a good job describing? Is its investment strategy sensible in how it's
attacking that asset class? And then also a really important thing as well, how much am I even being
charged for this? If you're investing in US large caps, you shouldn't be paying more than 15, 20
basis points if it's broadly diversified. EM, 60, 70 basis points. Understand the different asset
classes demand different costs. All of these things are critical to know when choosing an ETF.
Thanks for the call.
This is InvestTalk. I'm Luke Guerrero. We have one goal here to help you achieve your financial
freedom. And our work continues after our final break. So get your questions in now at 888-99-CHART.
And they can leave their finance and investment questions anytime on 888-99-CHART.
And I'll see you next time on InvestTalk.
Bye.
this short-termism in markets or unlocked long-term investment or
revived IPOs is unsupportive at times and contradictory at others. I mean,
some studies found no effect on investment horizon. Others found that companies which
stopped reporting quarterly saw
wider bid-ask spreads and increased information asymmetry.
Now, the SEC itself is soliciting feedback on two
specific concerns. Comparability across issuers and the timeliness of information. If company A
reports quarterly and company B reports every six months, how does an investor compare them
during the off quarter? The answer, you can't. Not with the same confidence, at least. You're
relying on press releases, on those 8K filings, on management guidance, none of which carry the
audit rigor as a legally binding filing like a 10Q. Fewer scheduled data points means you're
going to have to wait more highly on 8Ks, on that management guidance. It means wider information
dispersion between companies that report frequently and those that don't. It changes
how you monitor a stock you own. Instead of checking quarterly earnings against consensus
four times, you're doing it twice.
With six months of business activity compressed into a single filing and the companies that are
most likely to opt out of quarterly reporting, probably not Apple or Microsoft, probably not
Nvidia, probably not mega caps, probably not large caps, probably the smaller ones,
the smaller public companies where analyst coverage is already thin and information flow is
already limited. The ones where quarterly reports are the primary way investors learn about what's
happening.
Those are exactly the companies where reducing the disclosure creates the most risk.
If this passes, you're going to have to get familiar with other types of filings. You're
going to have to read your 8K. Seriously. The 8K becomes the primary real-time disclosure mechanism
between semi-annual findings. And this is a report, a filing rather, that probably most
people have never heard of. And certainly most retail investors have never read one.
So if these changes,
go through and there's still a possibility that they won't understand that the information flow
from company to investor fundamentally changes. And so too, will you have to change the way you
get your critical information? All right, everybody that does it for another episode
of invest talk, Justin and I, and the whole team over here. Thank you for listening. And we
encourage you to tell your friends and family members that this is a free show with free
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
BWX Technologies (BWXT) is a nuclear technology company and sole supplier of nuclear reactors for U.S. naval submarines and aircraft; despite a 52-week low and valuation re-rating from 54x to 32x forward earnings, revenue grew 18% year-over-year with a record backlog of $8.4 billion, and the company is spinning off its medical business, which the host views as bullish.
Money market funds are losing purchasing power
The dollar slide to a two-month low against the euro is boosting unhedged international fund returns, as currency moves can drive 30–50% of return variability; the host recommends a mix of hedged and unhedged exposure, leaning unhedged for core long-term allocations given structural dollar weakness pressures.
Other stock analyses include
For international exposure, the host prefers iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (IXUS) over T. Rowe Price International Value Fund (TRIGX) due to broader diversification (including mid and small caps) and a significantly lower expense ratio (7 basis points vs. 63).
The SEC's proposal to eliminate quarterly earnings reports could increase information asymmetry, especially for smaller companies with thin analyst coverage, requiring investors to rely more on 8K filings and other disclosure mechanisms.
Summary:
In this episode of InvestTalk, host Luke Guerrero addresses a range of investor questions and market topics. The primary stock analysis focuses on BWX Technologies (BWXT), a nuclear technology company held in client portfolios. 4 billion backlog, and a plan to spin off its medical business, which the host views as a positive simplification.
Guerrero remains bullish, seeing the pullback as a buying opportunity. The show also discusses the broader market, noting a down day with small caps leading losses, while energy and metals outperformed. 93 trillion parked in these funds is losing purchasing power.
The host warns against anchoring bias and emphasizes that cash should be used for liquidity, not returns. Additionally, the dollar's slide to a two-month low against the euro is boosting unhedged international fund returns, with currency effects driving 30–50% of return variability; Guerrero recommends a mix of hedged and unhedged exposure. Other analyses cover Bluebird (BLBD) as a solid but volatile small-cap, Nucor (NUE) as a well-run steelmaker, and Zoetis (ZTS), which the host passes on due to guidance cuts.
For international exposure, IXUS is preferred over TRIGX for its broader diversification and lower costs. Finally, the SEC's potential elimination of quarterly reports could increase information asymmetry, particularly for smaller companies.
FAQs
Yes, we remain bullish on BWXT. The stock has pulled back from an all-time high in April to more reasonable valuations (32x forward earnings vs. 54x), but the company has a huge backlog, strong revenue growth (up 18% year over year), and is spinning off its medical business, which we see as a positive. We view this as a buying opportunity once it finds a bottom.
It depends on the exposure you want. Physical silver ETFs like SIVR give you direct spot price exposure without company-specific risks, but silver markets are thinly traded and more open to manipulation. Silver miners like AG offer leveraged, high-conviction exposure to the metal but are even more volatile. Choose based on your risk tolerance and investment goals.
Yes, we like Nucor. It's America's largest steel producer with strong recent performance, including record Q2 shipments and revenue up 23% year over year. The pullback is healthy, and with low debt and solid free cash flow, it's a well-run company. We don't expect it to fall much further given its growth.
We prefer IXUS. It offers broader exposure (including mid and small caps), has a much lower expense ratio (7 basis points vs. 63), and has outperformed its benchmark consistently. TRIGX is expensive and has underperformed its benchmark over multiple time frames.
Focus on how well the ETF achieves its stated objective, whether you understand its strategy, and its cost. Ensure it truly represents the asset class you want—for example, some small-cap indexes include mid-caps. Also, pay attention to expense ratios, which should vary by asset class (e.g., 15-20 bps for US large caps, 60-70 bps for emerging markets).
Money market funds yield around 3.5%, but with inflation running at 3.5-4%, the real return is negative, meaning your purchasing power is eroding. This is a form of anchoring bias—investors compare to near-zero rates from the past, not to inflation. Cash should be used for liquidity, not as a return-generating investment.
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