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THE COX PLATE PREVIEW 2026 | GROUPE ONE PREVIEWS

from The Leg Up Australia Horse Racing

48m 38s

THE COX PLATE PREVIEW 2026 | GROUPE ONE PREVIEWS

This podcast episode previews Cox Plate weekend, held this year at Flemington rather than its traditional Moonee Valley home. The hosts open by revisiting Kingston Town's historic 1980 Cox Plate victory, sharing anecdotes about the famous call and the horse's legacy before Winx surpassed his three wins. They describe the 2025 edition as one of the most even in years, highlighting storylines including James McDonald's bid for a fifth straight win, Rachel King and Jamie Kah chasing a first female riding success, Chris Waller aiming to equal the record of seven Cox Plates, and Gai Waterhouse seeking the one major Australian race missing from her CV. The pair analyze the main contenders, weighing Sir Delius, Aliana, Warwoven, Cosmic Crusader, Land Legend, and Blinders, with one host ultimately tipping Birdman at around $12 as an under-the-radar value play. They also preview the Spring Champion Stakes, where fillies Global Goal and Proxima Diva dominate the market. Melbourne Cup lead-ups are discussed, including Kings Valley in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and Hopewell Rock as a smoky with Zach Lloyd booked. They close with best bets at Randwick and a plug for their members' service.

Transcription

6987 Words, 35840 Characters

English
Speaker 1well from family of man on the turn and Kingston Town cruised up to our paddy boy took the lead in the centre Prince Ruling and then Yurtis and Waitangarua but the real Kingston Town's going to street them and Kingston Town's gone on to win by four lengths. Second Prince Ruling.
Speaker 2Hello punters and welcome back to the show it is Cox Plate weekend the grand final of Australian racing at Flemington this year and what looks to be one of the most even edition we have had in years so many different storylines it is stacking up to be an absolute ripper we just heard Kingston Town on the intro winning the 1980 Cox Plate one of the more historic wins of this race some of our new listeners might not know but that's your old man in the
Speaker 3same place. Yeah go the king he was he was the the name synonymous with the Cox Plate for a long time until Winx came around so he won three no horse had won three until Winx did it and and went one better and won four but yeah he was great off. That's a great call too. Great call yeah yeah great call. So in the three there's two very famous calls so that one the first one that was we're going to see the real Kingston Town today and then the third one is the one which my dad didn't write him he was suspended Peter Cook the call was on the corner he said Kingston Town can't win.
Speaker 2Oh that's right yeah I remember that.
Speaker 3Yeah he's going backwards and then he just. Why can't man not write on the other two?
Speaker 2Because he was suspended. He got suspended a lot
Speaker 3didn't he? He did he did he was a bit like Zach Lloyd early in his career but Zach. This is like the whole story of his career. Zach sorted himself out dad never did.
Speaker 2It's actually if um if you're you want to look it up and watch something really quickly Ladbrokes did a thing on your old man talking about that win and he talks about how like he was he just knew Kingston Town was was going to win and like um even in the call when he when Kingston Town kind of tracks up to the first three and goes around him like your old man's like he I don't know if the caller says it or or it was your old man when I watched this Ladbrokes thing but it was like Kingston Town gets up to him in a and he he kind of he does like he puts pay to them and it wasn't a a weak field like that was the horses to beat at the time um and your old man was pissed because the Melbourne journalists had been um labeling Kingston Town as just a Sydney horse like let's see if we can do it in Melbourne blah blah blah and then he says he salutes after he wins I can't remember that mentions that. He always saluted
Speaker 3I think that's that's uh. Has he added that a bit of mayo for the Ladbrokes gig? Yeah he's added mayo yeah he's added mayo yeah this is a good cashier I'm gonna add a little bit of mayo. I'm just checking his um his form yeah he went he'd actually he's been beat at oh yeah sorry in the leader Caulfield he must have got beat in the Caulfield guineas prior because he won that as a three-year-old it doesn't go back far
Speaker 2enough um well yeah he said when when he saw the journalist um after the race he said what was that salute for and he and you know he's your old man just gave him the finger. Yeah it's a bit rude. It's a bit rude your dad. I see where
Speaker 3you get it from. Yeah so he got beaten he got beaten the Caulfield guineas so he's a three-year-old so he's uh trying to do what Blind Rays did. Yeah. Blind Rays will be trying to do turn the tables. Blind Rays will be trying to do what Kingston Town did but I think Kingston Town was a a very short price favorite in that Caulfield guineas he got beat and then he came and bounced back in the Cox Plate. That's what that meant to him. A few horses that have come through the uh the Caulfield guineas and not won it and then won the Cox Plate. Two that I can remember at the top of my head Seamus Award and So You Think. They didn't win the Caulfield guineas and then they won the Cox Plate. Warwoven he's won the guineas and now he's trying to win the Cox Plate. Let's go. I don't know how like I wish somebody here was good with stats. You could be that guy. I don't. Do you honestly think. Has any Caulfield guineas.
Speaker 2Wait wait do you honestly think I could be that guy?
Speaker 3Yeah. Has any Caulfield. Please don't lie on the podcast. I'm going to ask you. Oh yeah okay. You might know the answer to this question.
Speaker 2Yeah I might know. There's a chance I I might not as well.
Speaker 3Okay well has any Caulfield guineas winners actually won the Cox Plate? Has that ever happened? I'm unsure. Okay well maybe I'll google it next time you're talking
Speaker 2enough. Someone you know what our comment sections have been firing up lately so get in the comments and let us know. We just don't know off the top of our head but you guys will know. Um but yeah that's a that's a great start to the show and happy Cox Plate day BJ.
Speaker 3I love the Cox Plate.
Speaker 2I was saying just before we jumped on I feel like a lot of the new racing fans might not know it's it kind of gets outshone by the Melbourne Cup and the Everest and things like that but this is this is it. This is the pinnacle for the racing calendar. A lot of them a lot of people call it the grand final of Australian racing. Um the wait for age championships of Australia.
Speaker 3The wait for age championships of Australia. I think I think only um two but I'll have to confirm that in a long time ago.
Speaker 2Hopefully Warwoven can be the first in a long time.
Speaker 3Warwoven's trying to buck the trend.
Speaker 2Great modern history. Um BJ before we get into a few other things we did a giveaway last week for the Zach Purton signed hats which are at the front here. Hold one up. Nice hats. Where are they at? They're beautiful. They're very nice hats. The Zach Purton merch. This is a free plug too for Zach because we acquired these not through Zach. Um and drum roll. DZop8. He got it right. DZop8 from Spotify. These beautiful hats are all yours. He said tempted to win. Savvy Hallie to lose. Love the podcast. It was good. Good. Good. A lot of people entered. Yeah. Very good effort. So did he win both? In fact yes he had to bookend. He had to get the bookends. Winner and loser. No but did he win both the hats? Yeah. Both hats. Oh okay. No it's one giveaway. No no no no no. DZop8 deserved it. He was actually one of maybe two that tipped tempted. It was very car-ying rising heavy in the comments. Yeah. So he's done well DZop8. So I don't know either get on the website and hit our contact form or message us on Instagram because we've got to send you these beautiful signed caps. Um BJ members continued on their winning way. We are currently sitting at 6,094. Dollars and 25 cents for a 25 unit punter. 243 units year to date. Strike rate of 26% and an ROI 14%. Average price winner. Can you guess?
Speaker 3$4.50. $4.44. That's good.
Speaker 2Close. Close. Very good. It's about the price. So spring 33 has its final spots left. Hit the link in the show notes. Get your seven day free trial. Then you get 33% off your first payment. It'll more than likely fill this weekend and then it's done. Spring 33 will end soon.
Speaker 3I wonder if Bjorn will run Warwoven in the Derby if he wins the Cox Plate.
Speaker 2When's that? The week after.
Speaker 3The following Saturday. It wouldn't shock me. Bjorn doesn't mind testing them out. Yeah. Oh yeah. So I'm reading here. It only just, it only just clicked. There's only two that I can find. Hydrogen, 1951. He won the Caulfield Guineas before winning the Cox Plate. And then 1984, Red Anchor won the Caulfield Guineas, the Cox Plate and the Victoria Derby treble. Was it the week after back then as well? It would have been. Yeah. I'm guessing, but it would have been. Yeah. It's not too bad because it's like two weeks and then just one.
Speaker 2Where's the Derby usually? Is it always at Flemington? Yeah. Yeah. So that, that's a big feat as well. That's the Caulfield win. The Morgan. The Morgan. The Morgan. The Morgan. The Mooney Valley win and then the Flemington win. This year it's going to be Caulfield, hopefully Flemington, hopefully Flemington. So first time in a hundred. He'd be a very short
Speaker 3price favourite in the Derby. Is he in the market? And it's worth, he's not, he wouldn't be in the market, I don't think. I don't know. It's, but it's, I think it's worth 3 million. So Bjorn's not one to sneeze at Australian dollars. He likes Australian dollars. He's got lots of them, I reckon. He's got lots of Australian dollars. That would be a great feat in modern, modern times. The closest recently is Animo. So a lot of people think that he should have got that protest. Remember that was the, was it State of Rest? Something like that. Yeah. Something like that. I think John Allen wrote it. But yeah, he won the Caulfield Guineas and then he went down narrowly in that Cox Plate and he probably should have won it. Yeah, it was State
Speaker 2of Rest. State of Rest. Written by John Allen.
Speaker 3Well done. Yeah.
Speaker 2So yeah, a hundred and five years. It's been at Moonee Valley. This is the first time at Flemington. Going to be different, going to be interesting. It's going to be hot today and tomorrow down there. There's no rain predicted, but on Saturday there's expected to be. not a lot of rain, but a little bit in the afternoon. I think down there it's about, I want to say like four o'clock, the race. Actually, I'll have a look. Yeah, that'd be right. So there might be a little bit. It's race nine. Yeah, there might be a little bit of, no, I think it's race eight on a nine race card and it's going to be at 10 past five. So it might be wet. Hopefully not enough to really affect this track because it's like 30 degrees the next two days and no rain. So it adds another little bit of spice to the show and so many storylines heading into this race. You've got J-Mac going for five in a row. You've got Rachel and Jamie looking to become the first female winning riders of the race. You've got Waller looking to equal the record with seven Cox plates and you've got Gay Waterhouse looking. Gay Waterhouse looking for her first Cox plate. Did you know that? No, I didn't know that. That's hard to believe. She's won 150-odd of them.
Speaker 3So she'll win the, that's the final of the big four for her. So she's won a Melbourne Cup, she's won a Caulfield Cup and she's won multiple Golden Slippers and then Cox plate. But she's had some great horses to have not won a Cox plate.
Speaker 2Yeah, yeah. I think it's like 150. 156 group ones.
Speaker 3Like, like I'm trying to think of the sort of horses that she's had that would have run in it back in the day. She, she ran, um, like Desert War. He was a, he was a very good stayer, like Juggler, um, Fiorente. I reckon he ran second in the Cox plate before he won the Melbourne Cup. Um, but yeah. So he's gone back through like.
Speaker 2Alligator blood? Did she have alligator blood when?
Speaker 3Yeah, she, she had alligator blood later in his career. Yeah. So he would have won in, he would have run in the Cox plate.
Speaker 2Yeah. Well, it was a, he got third in the Cox plate.
Speaker 3Piero? Yeah. He, but I don't remember, I don't remember Piero stretching out. I think he, did Piero, I'm not sure if he raced on two races. I don't know. He didn't stretch out too much after his three-year-old season. Yeah. It's a long time ago, but he won the triple ground as a, as a three-year-old. Yeah. Um, as a two-year-old, sorry. Um, but yeah, I don't think he would have stretched out too much after his three-year-old
Speaker 2season. Yeah. It just, it was, it was actually a massive surprise to me when I was reading that, that she hasn't won a Cox plate, but yeah, that would be it.
Speaker 3I'm just, I'm just looking up, um, Queen Elizabeth stakes winners to see what sort of horses she would have had running it. But, um, uh, yeah, it's going to be a cracking race this weekend anyway.
Speaker 2Yeah. And it's obviously the weight for age headliner of the year.
Speaker 3More joyous. Yeah. Would have run in a Cox plate. Um, yeah. More joyous is the one that, uh, I think so. Yeah. They, I think when more joyous was favorite in the Cox plate, they chose the outside gate. So that's, that's been a bit of news this week. That's, that's floated back up because, uh, I didn't watch the barrier draw on Tuesday, but three kids in the bar land legend was first to go and they took the outside, which was like more joyous.
Speaker 2Yeah. So that'll be interesting.
Speaker 3Yeah. Big call. Bit of theater. He probably can't win. It's not, it's not bad for him. He's, he's going to go forward and roll. Yeah. It's interesting. Like, um, it is, but I like that. It's not just going to run him in the Melbourne. Come like, I don't know. Like, is this his grand final or do they run him in the Melbourne cup? I think they probably run him in the Melbourne cup.
Speaker 2I'd say it's Melbourne cup. You'd think, but still it'd be nice to pick up a Cox plate along the way. Yeah. What's $6 million in prize money, which has increased over, I think two years ago it was 5 million. Um, we currently have two joint favorites, BJ. So it's Sir Delius at a barrier five. He's $4. 60. Um, this is gay and Adrian's horse third up off two fourths. He was fourth in the Maccabi diva and fourth three and a half lengths behind in the Turnbull on a wet track. Um, he's one third up before he's had this race as the target all along. And I think the barrier is ideal. Aliana is $4. 60. Wallace mayor with J max. She was third in the Turnbull second in the seven stakes behind autumn glow. Gate 10 could be the knock, but you know, she'll be running on and war. Whoa. I'm going to go with the golden rose.
Speaker 3run well in the Melbourne Cup. And then they did back him up and run him in the Melbourne Cup. So he ran in all three and he won that Melbourne Cup. Cosmic Crusader, he can freshen up and run well here. Birdman, I'll come back to Birdman. Landlanger, I don't think that he can, if he reproduces what he did last start, he's right in the race. But whether or not he can reproduce, Middle Earth ticking over from Melbourne Cup. St. George, he's probably not good enough. He's never won a stakes race in Australia. To see him around that $20, $18 in a Cox Plate, it's a little bit weird. But he ran really well in that Caulfield Cup. He was just held up a couple of strides. Aliana, she's one of mine. She's ready to peak. She's fourth up now. She's. She hit the line strongly behind AG second up and then third up, got into that fast race behind Cosmic Crusader, who he went straight past her on that corner, but she was really surging back through the line. This is her peak run. She had no luck in the race last year. Is that gait an issue for Aliana? She's going to need a little bit of luck. She'll go back. I hope that she just goes back and she hits the line. She hits the line really hardly. Really hard. Hardly. Hardly. Really hard. She hardly hits the line. I hope she hits it hard. I hope she hits the line hard and then they just have to run her in the Melbourne Cup because I got a lot of tickets on her in the Melbourne Cup. So I hope to see her on the first Tuesday in November. She can obviously win, but I'm not sure that she's going as well as she has in the past. She looks a little bit dour to me, but she did look dour in that turn, Bill. Turnbull stakes last year prior to probably should have been right in the finish in this race last year. So she can peak up. Warwoven, he's flying. So he's won that Golden Rose in fast time and he's backed it up, winning her Caulfield Guineas. Can he do it over 2,000 meters against the older horses? He does get the weight relief. He gets the suck draw. So he's right in the race. Blind race. There's been a lot of money for blind race. You quoted $16, but he's actually into $12 best available now, $10 with the tab. So there's been a bit of money for him this morning. I think that he gets the right run. They'll be positive on him from that wide draw, probably find the fence, let a couple cross him from the outside and he's right in the race. But in a very open edition, I'm going to tip Birdman. I think Birdman is the one, I'm going to tip Birdman. I think Birdman is the one, six months ago, even two months ago, one month ago, I would have said you'd be mad to say that I'd be tipping Birdman in a Cox Plate because I just didn't think that he was good enough. But his form warrants it. He's flying. He had a really good campaign in Queensland. He won the Underwood Stakes second up. He ran past Cosmic Crusader like he was standing still that day. So then he's gone to that Might and Power Stakes. I think she's about alibi. If she was in this race, she'd be a short price favorite. And he wasn't beaten far by her. That was just a really brutally run race. And he just peaked on his run late. I think that tops him right off for this. I thought he ran on then. He did run on, but she went past him. Yeah, yeah. Well, she's the, she's potentially the second best horse in the country. And if she was here, if she was here, she'd, she'd be two, she'd be sub 250, I reckon. So that gives him a really good hope. And I just think that potentially that race is going to bring him right on for grand final day. I feel like Birdman, pardon the pun, is flying under the radar a little bit. He's, he should be shorter than Cosmic Crusader. Cosmic Crusader's $9 now, Birdman's $12. I think that he should be shorter. $14. $12 best available from what I can see. That's the bookies you look at,
Speaker 2mate. You got to look at the next tier down. You're shopping for pride. I'm not going to use some of these names because I haven't heard of them. Um, yeah, like there's a big price difference with a lot of these between Cosmic Crusader and Birdman. I'm surprised you said that. Cosmic Crusader should be, should be shorter than Cosmic Crusader. I thought Cosmic Crusader was super. Like. Yeah,
Speaker 3but it was on a heavy track. Yeah. In that, he, that, that, that Turnbull win was on a heavy track and he had the fitness edge on his key rivals. He loses that fitness edge, uh, and he loses the heavy track and he's got to go 2,400 meters, seven days back to 2,000 meters. Not saying that he can't do it and not saying that that's a real big negative. Um, because this Kieran Maher, he's just, he's just airborne. Yeah. He's just winning with everything.
Speaker 2Yeah. And trying stuff that we've ever seen, we've either rarely seen or haven't seen before.
Speaker 3He's now got the favorite in the Melbourne Cup. Yeah. Point of law. Yeah. That was a big win yesterday. Did you get any $9? I did. Oh, no. I, I had him loaded in my bet slip, um, at the furlong. Um, and I clicked, clicked it through and it, it got rejected.
Speaker 2I wanted the nines. There was still like $8 available. He was $26 before the racks.
Speaker 3Yeah, I know, I know, I know,
Speaker 2I know, I know. But off that, like there was some pretty, there was a bit out of that after that. But yeah, look, I, I, I think there's merit in Cosmic Crusaders run, um, in the Caulfield Cup. Um, you know, that's a good force. So there's, that's it. I was only beaten one and a half lengths off him and it was a group finish. Um, but yeah, for me, I get, obviously I'm going to tip Warwoven. I, I think the weight is a big story. I think it looks like, like a lot of these horses have question marks on the step up or, you know, as we're just talking about Cosmic Crusader on the, on the step back. Um, but yeah, I just think for me to also be down there with the camp, it would be a very nice thing to be involved with. Um, so it'd be hard for me to tip against Warwoven and I've got a few tickets into it. So it's, it's definitely the best for my, my pocket because we do talk about our pocket, uh, quite a bit, but yeah, I can't wait. It is a bit, I'm excited to go down. Um, we've got a hotel, we've got the hotel at Flemington. I would have loved for you to come with us, but young baby, just tie the handcuffs for this year's spring carnival for you. I'll go one day when we've got a runner in the cocks plate. That's the only time you'll go. Yeah. Fuck why? You're just so happy in your routine. In the office, watching the races.
Speaker 3When we, when we've got a runner in the cocks plate, I'll, I'll go. Oh, I want us to go to more. I've been to a cocks plate.
Speaker 2Uh, and I'd like to go if we. You've experienced more than me when it comes to, I've never been to Flemington. Like that's crazy.
Speaker 3I've been to Flemington. Uh, but I've never been to the Melbourne cup. So I'd like to go to the
Speaker 2Melbourne cup. And I'd like to go to the Caulfield cup.
Speaker 3I haven't been to the Caulfield cup either.
Speaker 2Well, then maybe. Maybe Melbourne cup should be top of the list for us.
Speaker 3Only day that I've been to, it wasn't champion's day back then, but I've been to the equivalent of champion's day. It was Emirates stakes day.
Speaker 2The last day or the.
Speaker 3Yeah. The last day.
Speaker 2Yeah. They reckon that's a good day.
Speaker 3Yeah. Derby day would be a great day.
Speaker 2Derby day would be cool. They reckon that's.
Speaker 3Probably. The best day. That's us next year. We'll go, we'll go, uh, we'll go to derby day. We'll go to like call of the card. We'll go to Melbourne cup and then we'll go back home. Yeah. That'd be cool. That, that's, that's something that I would love to do.
Speaker 2Well, yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm excited.
Speaker 3Maybe we'll have a runner in the race next year. That'd be nice. I don't know. We've got to actually buy a horse.
Speaker 2I don't want to buy a horse. You've got to buy a horse. I don't want to buy. Listen, I'm going to go down there and I will celebrate as hard as any owner of Warwoven. We're going down with good mate, Matty Zammett, who's got a runner in the first. I'll celebrate that as if I was an owner. I don't need to actually have financial interest in the ownership of the horse when I'm going to have financial interest on the punt of a horse. I'm excited. Cox's Plate, I do wish I got down to Cox's Plate at Moonee Valley, but you know, if that's one negative, if I was finding one, but I can't wait going to be in members, possibly in a event. Um, but if you do see me out at Flemington on Saturday, come say hello. And I usually like to be greeted with a beer. So if you've got a beer in your hand, just bring it over. Yeah. It wouldn't be a negative. It'd help. You'd buy a beer for whoever come up and said hello to you. You're very generous when people recognize you. Yeah. Do you remember that time you brought those guys a jug of margaritas? Yeah. Do you reckon they thought you wanted to go home with them? I don't know.
Speaker 3I was just supporting, supporting my supporters.
Speaker 2It was early days. And it was like one of the first times Blake got recognized in public and it was a full tale of dudes. He bought, he sent a jug of margaritas to the table.
Speaker 4It sounds, that sounds worse than what it was, but it was like, um, it was a Mexican conjoined. Yeah. And they had- And you were on your own, weren't you?
Speaker 3It was like margaritas. It was like margarita night. You buy the cheap jugs. Food jugs for the boys. What's that place? Hail Mary's in Burley. That's where it was. Probably his car. Those places have churned over a million times.
Speaker 2Ah, that's a good one. Jug of margaritas for the boys. Hey, do you mind sending a jug of margaritas over to those four bullies on table four? Yeah. Exactly. No, I was going to bring that. All right. Ball waving for me. Birdman for you. I was going to say value, but Birdman is value. I would have thought you were going to go with Aliana.
Speaker 3Yeah. I just don't- There's every chance that she peaks up and wins it, but I sort of half don't. But then you're happy because then she's probably going to- I half don't want to win. James is going for five? Five in a row. That's a good effort. Five in a row.
Speaker 2Yeah. And that would be? His five in a row, which equals a record, I believe.
Speaker 3Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2And then that'd be Waller's seventh Cox Plate, which equals? TJ. TJ. Who's gay's old man. Who's gay's old man. Who hasn't won one. TJ Smith, is he still with us? No. No, unfortunately. He can't really hold that over her, I suppose.
Speaker 3No. Because- He trained Kingston too.
Speaker 2Really? Didn't even know that. Okay. You learn something new every day. I do learn a lot sitting here. And you thought I was going to be the stats man. All right. The other group one for Saturday is the spring champion stakes. Group one, 2,000 meters, $2 million, three-year-old set weights. We've got a good fall there with some showers forecasted. The rail is out six meters the entire way. And Global Goal is our favorite. $2.90. Comes off a group one win in the flight stakes. Over 1,600 meters at this track. It was a soft six that day. Beating D'Armas, who we spoke about in last week's episode. The form's held up. D'Armas proving competitive in last Saturday's 1,000 guineas. Gate three is a big upgrade. Give or sticks. Proxima Dia, $5.50, unbeaten in her last four outings. Won the gloaming over 1,800 meters by a neck from midfield. She looked beaten in that race. Fought back. Gate nine. Could be the knock. Scaroli. Unsure if I'm pronouncing that correctly. $7.50. And Nick, third in that gloaming. Third in the bill start after leading. Keeps placing but needs to step up here to compete. Stormy Marco, another one of the boys. $8. He was half a length fifth in the gloaming after being eased back early. Bit of support in the market. And Cormier. He was fourth in the gloaming, beating a long neck. It was a real bunch finish. Comes in fourth up. The pedigree in the last few rounds. Racers look like he's screaming for further. So it could be one to watch this weekend. And Wonka, $12. Genuine colt. Second in the gloaming. After winning the dulcify over the 1,600 meters, he's drawn to get a lovely run on the speed. And then we've got mind games, diameter, and Persian wonder rounding out the field. Global gold looks hard to beat. BJ, are you in that camp or against? Yeah, it's not a race that I'm really. Up about. You did fucking yawn as I brought you into that.
Speaker 4I didn't yawn. There was no yawning.
Speaker 3I think you cut it. I was. I don't want to bore you. Oh, it's not. It's a group one. Surprising. Yeah, it's not a race that I'm really interested in, to tell you the truth. I think the Phillies are. I think the market's got to bang on, to tell you the truth. I think global gold should be favorite. Proxima data should be second favorite. Then I've got Cormier. Third favorite, Wonka. I think Scorolli and Stormy Marco are probably a little bit shorter in the market than they should be. I could genuinely back global gold or Proxima data. Global gold looks like she's going to eat up 2,000 meters. I loved her late strength in that flight stage. You knew that she was just building to that performance. She drew. She draws a gate here, gets to 2,000 meters. She could have went to that 1,000 guineas and got the job done there, but they choose to go to take on the boys in the spring champion stakes. Proxima data, she was a gap between runs last start, 42 days, and she looked a spent force at the furlong, but then she just surged back through the line to win. She's going to eat up 2,000 meters. A bit of work to do from the draw, but probably at the price, I'll tip Proxima data because I don't think there's all that much between them, and I think that she's just – we just haven't got to the bottom. We don't know how good Proxima data is yet, so I want to tip her.
Speaker 2Yeah, I think it is really the boys trying to keep up with the two fillies here, and I like the faith. Global goal. I just don't think she's run a bad race. Like I think it's a confident bet at $3.
Speaker 3Yeah, fair enough. David Payne, he's won this race twice with Ace High, who came through the gloaming stakes, which is what Proxima data does, and he also won it with Montefiglia, who won the flight stakes and then won this race. So he's done both paths of the two favorites. I remember Ace High.
Speaker 2That was the orange silks, wasn't it?
Speaker 3Yeah, Ace High. I reckon Ty – Did Tony Berry? Or Ty? It was Ty. I reckon it was Ty. Rode Ace High?
Speaker 2Yeah. I reckon you're right. That's a guess. He did. He rode – yeah, it was Ty. For some reason, I always get Tommy Berry and Ty – like when I – in the past, when I look back, I always get them confused in those older horses. Yeah, well, he was a good horse. Call me air. We've spoken about – I'm pretty sure we've spoken about that horse on this show. Not really. I
Speaker 3wouldn't think so. He's not really one of mine. I've never tipped him before. But maybe – There's a
Speaker 2spruik around for it. That's all I'm saying. That's why I just wanted to jog your memory and see. No, we've never tipped him.
Speaker 3We probably potentially talked about him like prior to the J.J. Atkins when Tron bought me. That's probably the only time that I spoke about him.
Speaker 2Yeah. We're going for the girls. The girls. All right. We're going to get into your tips. But if you want the full previews for these Group 1 races plus our best value and quaddies at all five Metro – Metro tracks, BJ's pro tips, the black bookers, jump on board members only. We're about to get into BJ's tips. But, yeah, like I said, this will probably be your last chance to use the code SPRING33. Back-to-back winning weekends.
Speaker 3Well done. Yeah, thanks, mate. We're going to go on with the job. What could have been? This weekend. It could have been.
Speaker 2We're sick, but what could have been?
Speaker 3Yeah. Don't remind me about St. George. He was great. Now we just need to find the Melbourne Cup winner. Big lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup this weekend. We've got the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, Flemington Race 7. A few horses are going to come out of this race. The Euphrates will come out. The winner of the Geelong Cup Point of Law, he'll come out. There's another one to come out in there. OmniMan, it's already come out. Good race, this. I think that Kings Valley can win it. I think Kings Valley was the best run in the Caulfield Cup. He copped a lot of that interference, and he was still surging through the line. I've looked into him. He's 46th on the order of entry into the Melbourne Cup. He needs to win, run second in this race, would potentially get him into the race. Okay. He's going to be winning. Wound right up to run well in this race. As I said before, Ma has done a similar pattern before to win the Melbourne Cup. With Goldtrip, he ran him in the Caulfield Cup. He ran him in the Cox Plate, so on the same day as this race. Then he won the Melbourne Cup with him. I think this horse is absolutely flying. Gets Jamie Mellon $12. I think he'll win this race, and I think he'll run really well in the Melbourne Cup.
Speaker 2If he doubles into the Melbourne Cup, he gets in.
Speaker 3Wait, he's got to get in. There's another one. There was a little bit of Melbourne Cup news around this morning, and I looked into this last night. I backed this horse. His name's Hopewell Rock. This horse is like 27th on the order of entry, so he's going to get in. He gave weight, and he beat that horse that runs second in the Melbourne Cup. I mean, Geelong Cup yesterday. Sorry about that sound. Um, I probably should look this up beforehand. Small fry. So small fry run second in the Geelong Cup yesterday. Uh, and he'd be a genuine Melbourne Cup chance, but he's not going to get into the roast. Hopewell Rock beat him at Goodwood. Uh, he gave him four and a half kilos. Uh, Hopewell Rock will carry 54 and a half kilos in this Melbourne Cup. And then he ran second in the E-ball, uh, which has been a good race for Melbourne Cup, um, runners in the past. He was held up at a key stage. He's got a really good turn of foot, this Hopewell Rock, and they've made a key jockey booking overnight.
Speaker 2Who? Zach Lloyd. For this Hopewell Rock.
Speaker 3Yeah. So Zach's going to ride Hopewell Rock in the Melbourne Cup. Um, he would have been. Hasn't had a strange start yet. No, he'll go straight to the Melbourne Cup. Okay. Yep. So I think $21 about him. He'll start shorter than that on the day. Uh, Zach would have been interimly booked for Athelwolf who's in this, um, Moody Valley Cup on Saturday, but he's got to win it to get into the race. So maybe, Zach, um, decided to, to take this ride when the opportunity come up.
Speaker 2Why? Because it's a better chance of just being.
Speaker 3He's in the race. He's 100% in the race.
Speaker 2Um. Cause yeah, Willow picks up the ride on Athelwolf for the first time.
Speaker 3And Billy Locknay, um, like has had plenty to do with, uh, Hopewell Rock as well. Um, and Billy was in Australia for a little while, so maybe, maybe there's some type of connection there. Just giving Zach that this is the Melbourne Cup winner.
Speaker 2Okay. Well, that's good to know. What are you listening to?
Speaker 3Fucking my computer sounds like it's going to explode. Maybe it is going to explode. Um, but that's not, that's not my best of the day.
Speaker 2Before we, if we, if you've had a look at this race and pulled back a bit, what about, um, Juja Kiba, fuck, you said it right last week. I was trying to remember it.
Speaker 3Juja Kiba. Juja Kiba. Juja Kiba. Ju-a-Kiba.
Speaker 2Is that, is it?
Speaker 3Juja Kiba. Is it Juja? Is it Juja? He, he was a genuine chance in the, uh, Caulfield Cup. Yeah. Uh, he didn't get into the race. He comes here. I don't think he's in the, I don't think he, he will get a run in the Melbourne Cup unless he wins a race like this. Um, that metropolitan form didn't really stand up yesterday in the Geelong Cup. The Euphrates, uh, he was well beaten. Um, Juja Kiba put up a big performance to win that, a big figure that measures right up to the Melbourne Cup. Uh, he draws awkwardly here. Um, obviously I think he's, he's right in the race, but, um, I think $6 is sort of fair enough about him. King Pedro's one that I've sort of specced at big odds in the, the Melbourne Cup because he's a half chance of winning this race and you need to win it to get into the Melbourne Cup. Um, he was really good hitting the line in Sydney first up, then he bounces to this race. That was on the back of a, a gap between runs and back in trip. So he's one that could, um, could measure right up here. Damien Lane takes over, but I'm going to be having something on Kings Valley. Um, I think the horse is flying. He doesn't really have the ratings to win this race, but, um, I don't think he had every chance to optimize his rating last start in that Courtfield Cup considering the interference he struck. We're going to go to Sydney. Sydney for my best bets. Let's do it. My race. Um, I'm going to say the best bet of the day is in the fourth race. I think Kieran Starr is favorite now, but yesterday when I sent it out to members, uh, she wasn't favorite. So key, key rivals are Crescent King and Punxsutawney Phil. Um, they both bring midweek form. Um, she brings genuine group. I think her last four have been in, in group races. First up, uh, she gave away fitness behind blue door who was then picked up for an Everest. She wasn't put into the race, but she hit the line really nicely. She beat third easily. She can only strip fitter for that. Uh, being back to the trials, had a lovely tick over trial in well at the weights draws well, uh, extra a hundred meters suits. And I just think that she brings the better form lines. And I thought she should have been favorite. She's now favorite. I think that she can start shorter than that quote. Um, so I'm going to back her accordingly, and then we're going to back one in the highway. Randwick race to number seven, ocean tsunami. This is favorite now. It's not favorite now, but it'll start favorite on Saturday. Back to the well, we're Lewis shoe, uh, is favorite. Yeah. Uh, good winning highway grade last start back to the well. Back and wide, um, hit the line strongly to win with Nash on board. Nash sticks gets a better draw here. You can see why the market's fat found it, but it doesn't have the ratings. Um, that's that stack up to suggest that it should be a $2, 80 chance. Uh, ocean tsunami, big win before the break blinkers on first time, dry track. Bolton gap between runs well liked by the market. I think that's a good sign. I think that's a good sign.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The podcast opens with a replay of Kingston Town's famous 1980 Cox Plate win, setting the stage for Cox Plate weekend at Flemington.
  2. The hosts note this year's Cox Plate is one of the most open editions in years, featuring storylines such as J-Mac chasing five straight wins and Gai Waterhouse seeking her first Cox Plate.
  3. Only two horses, Hydrogen in 1951 and Red Anchor in 1984, have completed the Caulfield Guineas–Cox Plate double, and Warwoven is attempting to join them.
  4. The hosts debate the chances of key runners including Sir Delius, Aliana, Warwoven, and Cosmic Crusader, with one tipping Birdman as value at around $12.
  5. In the Spring Champion Stakes, Global Goal ($2.90) and Proxima Diva ($5.50) are the favored fillies, and the hosts each side with one of them.
  6. Kings Valley is tipped for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup as a lead-up to the Melbourne Cup, with Jamie Melham aboard at around $12.
  7. Hopewell Rock is flagged as a Melbourne Cup smoky at around $21 after Zach Lloyd was booked overnight to ride him.
  8. The hosts' best bets are Kieran Starr at Randwick and Ocean Tsunami in the Highway Handicap, and they promote the final spots in their Spring33 members' offer.

Summary:

This podcast episode previews Cox Plate weekend, held this year at Flemington rather than its traditional Moonee Valley home. The hosts open by revisiting Kingston Town's historic 1980 Cox Plate victory, sharing anecdotes about the famous call and the horse's legacy before Winx surpassed his three wins. They describe the 2025 edition as one of the most even in years, highlighting storylines including James McDonald's bid for a fifth straight win, Rachel King and Jamie Kah chasing a first female riding success, Chris Waller aiming to equal the record of seven Cox Plates, and Gai Waterhouse seeking the one major Australian race missing from her CV.

The pair analyze the main contenders, weighing Sir Delius, Aliana, Warwoven, Cosmic Crusader, Land Legend, and Blinders, with one host ultimately tipping Birdman at around $12 as an under-the-radar value play. They also preview the Spring Champion Stakes, where fillies Global Goal and Proxima Diva dominate the market. Melbourne Cup lead-ups are discussed, including Kings Valley in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and Hopewell Rock as a smoky with Zach Lloyd booked. They close with best bets at Randwick and a plug for their members' service.

FAQs

The Cox Plate is the weight-for-age championship of Australia and is often called the grand final of Australian racing. It is considered the pinnacle of the racing calendar, even though it is sometimes overshadowed by the Melbourne Cup and The Everest.

Kingston Town won the Cox Plate three times, a record that stood until Winx won it four times. Kingston Town's 1980 win is one of the most historic in the race.

The Cox Plate is traditionally held at Moonee Valley. This year it is being held at Flemington for the first time in its history.

Yes, only two horses have achieved this: Hydrogen in 1951 and Red Anchor in 1984, who completed the Caulfield Guineas, Cox Plate, and Victoria Derby treble.

J-Mac is going for five wins in a row, Rachel and Jamie are looking to become the first female winning riders, Chris Waller is aiming to equal the record with seven Cox Plates, and Gai Waterhouse is chasing her first Cox Plate win.

The joint favorites are Sir Delius at $4.60 and Aliana at $4.60. Warwoven and Birdman are also considered strong contenders in a very open edition.

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