The “Climax Top” In Gold & Silver | Milton Berg, Turning Point Master, on Precious Metals, Bitcoin, and Disturbing December Warning In Stocks

Later on, you'll hear more about the Fund Rise Income Fund and why sophisticated investors are turning to higher yielding assets like private credit. But for now, let's get into today's interview. In this interview, I'm speaking to the turning point master himself, Milton Berg. Nine months ago, Milton came on monetary matters with an extraordinarily bullish case for US stocks, which are now up nearly 20% since that interview. Our talk today is very technical and quite long, so I want to give you a little bit of a road map. The first 20 minutes or so, we devote to the incredibly strong buy signals that Milton saw in April 2025 that nearly one year later are still motivating his analysis. At the 22 minute mark, Milton talks about the disturbing December signal that made him short the market. At the one hour and 12 minute mark, we talk about why Milton is bearish on gold and silver, and why he thinks that late January was a climax top for precious metals. At the one hour and 37 minute mark, Milton talks about Bitcoin and just over two hours in, we talk about the vicious sell off in stockware stocks. I also want to make clear that this interview was recorded on February 6th, and at that time, Milton and his model portfolio for institutional clients had combined short positions of over 100% in the S&P Nasdaq Russell, as well as semiconductors. Based on what he saw Monday, February 9th, not only did he cover those shorts, but he also flipped long equities. Again, that is for his institutional clients in his new retail service for individual investors. Milton's signal has had a 100% long exposure to stocks since early April 2025. Also, when it comes to precious metals, Milton shorted gold and silver within one day of the high and precious metals at the end of January, and he remains bearish on gold and silver. Let's get into it. Got a very special guest. I'm joined once again by the extremely accomplished technician known as Milton Berg of MB advisors and Milton Berg Edge. Milton, it is wonderful to see you. How are you? I'm doing very well. Thank you so much. Good to see you again, Jack. I always enjoy interviewing with you. The fulfilling is mutual. Milton about eight or nine months ago, shortly after the seismic panic in markets of April 2025. You and I did an interview and you were extremely infatic that the market, the technical signals in the market you were seeing were extremely strong and you used extremely strong language. This time I said we have a series of bicycles. No way the market could go down. It's definitely going to go up. How long it goes? I don't know because you had similar signals in 1987 in January and the market picked three quarters of year later. I can't tell you how long the market is going to rally, but I will tell you how high the market should go. That's what we'll discuss today. I said that's going to be bull market action. You promise bull market action, bull market action. We've had the indices are far higher now. A fun of you reference 1987. That was a very good year for you. Then in the background, people say you were the mutual fund manager of the year, quite an accomplishment. Milton, what were the by signals you saw in the market? How would they evolved into January and now February 2026? What have you made of the recent market action? Are you seeing any cell signals? I'm going to get back to one of projections. We don't trade based on projections. We trade based on turning points. April was a major turning point for the market. We pounded the table. We're going to always pound the table. We pounded the table by by by. I'll tell you exactly why. This chart was the first of 88 bicycles we received. This bicycle April 4th of 2025. I say it's the first of 88 because a retail newsletter only gets the first signal. We say you buy now when you hold until we tell you to sell. Institutions are constantly comfortable. They give more confirmations. They see many, many of the signals we get. This was the first signal we saw in April 4th. It was a day before the low. That day in Nasdaq, it's five day volume. It was at 200 day high. That day in Nasdaq had declined 70% over the last three days. The VXN, which is a VIXAN Nasdaq 100, rather than the VIXAN, the SP500, gained 10% for at least two days in a row. This is a very rare occurrence. We're looking for rare occurrences. We're not looking at moving averages and looking at what the Fed is doing and what the Fed is saying and the money supply. We're looking for rare occurrences that take place at market turning points. On this day, April 4th, you had these three rare occurrences, which I just mentioned. This actually occurred in the past, occurred in October 8th, 1998, August 5th, 2024. August 24th, 2015. The maximum gains within a year of those signals was 47%, 15.6%, and 23.2%. So far, the April 4th signal through the close-in-high on January 27th of this year, it's gained 37.53%. It's out-performed to the historical precedents. It's under-performed. One of the precedents of 47%. However, we're measuring one year out. We're looking at the maximum gains within one year. For all you know, we'll be up 47% by April 4th of 2026. This was the first signal we got. However, I want to talk about projections. Why don't we project to our clients? Now again, we don't trade based on projections, but projections are very important. Important because if you get a buy signal, but only at a historical rate, the median gain after the buy signal was 5%, it really doesn't pay to trade it because, you know, with the slippage and with the. it doesn't pay. So we look at the historical returns based on the signal and tell you what the market would do if we follow those historical returns. It's very helpful for us. So what we did is, for this chart for you guys, I actually created this for you. We took. we broke up a signal by day. So in April 4th, we actually had two signals I showed you one of them. And based on the signals we had in April 4th, the median maximum gain before the market decline 10%. In other words, how far did the market gain before it declined the next 10%, so the median was 60 to 67, 57 relative, we're using percentage gains relative to where we started around for April 4th. And then the projection on average would be 71, 52. Our maximum height of data and the closing base is 69, 78, 60. So based on this alone, there's more to the upside, you see. Before the market sees the temperature of the correction. That was April 4th. On April 7th, we had a number of signals as well. And that projected to either 72, 91 or 77, 51. Again, the market could go much higher based on those projections. On April 8th, we had more signals with many more historical backups to the signal, many more historical precedents. And that projected to speak between 71, 28 as a median, 67, 20 years of average. And we've actually exceeded that by closing at. We've closed that was 69, 78, 60. We've exceeded the average of previous returns. April 9th, we had many, many signals. I think we had about 40 signal, April 9th itself. We had many, many historical precedents for these signals. Each of these instances, a historical signal, is it actually a historical date of the signal? So what signal, April 9th signal, it looks like 30 or 40 times in the past. And these 57 signals generate, April 9th, project to between 70, 47, 79, 21. Before the next decline of 10 percent, we're only at 69, 78, 60. Now again, I don't trade based on projections. I just give the clients this is institutional work. The retailer will not see this kind of work. We're telling how far the market would go if it just gains the median gain or does gains the the average gain based on the previous signals. This is April 9th, this is April 10th, I won't go to each one set, April 11th. Some are looking at all the signals from April 4th, April, April 30th, many, many buy signals, they said. The median projection would be, to be 74, 37 in the S&P, the average projection, 75, 99. Which means from the closing high on January 28th, 27th, it's about nearly 6 percent, and about 8% of where we're closed. The actual life is 69, 78, you see. So again, based on the kind of buy signals we saw in April, the market has not satisfied its historical gains. And that satisfied its historical mean or average and satisfied its historical returns. As you'd expect, after that kind of low, I just point out that the low in April generate the most extreme oversold condition we've ever seen. This is based on an 18 combination of 18 oversold indicators. And the indicators go back only to 1995 or so. So maybe you saw prior to that, but they even from 1995 to 2025, we had the most oversold. And the reason is why, here's the country hates Trump. Here's the country thinks Trump is going to cause a great depression. And the other half of the country that loves Trump hates the power. So I think power is going to cause a great depression or hyperinflation. And when Trump announced tariffs and he'd great negotiating, people thought he invited people laughing at him. We're laughing about it. They took it seriously and they thought they're going to have 100% to 200% of 300% tariffs on China, whatever Trump decided on that particular day. And people truly panic and market bottoms always occur on panic. So our signals fleshed on the days, you know, April 4th into the low, April 8th, day to low and April 9th, day after the low. So you signal at the oversold readings into the low and at the thrust off the low. And again, projections look for say another 6% above the current high. Which is not a lot. No, 6% is not a lot for an institutional trade. It was trading some people trading trillion at all, but those are trading even billions of dollars. You're probably going to start worrying about the market now if the meeting projection is 6%. But we don't tell our clients that we to really worry about projections. We were about a 30 point analysis and we'll see in a minute that actually looked a little bit cautious. We'll get to that in a moment. I always want to review some. I took from each day just one signal just to give your viewers an idea of what we look at because up at those point you could say this is milk and this is just really. He's just sort of like saying he has only indicated but why should we be believe him. I mean, why should we do some robust indicators? I mean, if we're all we know he's like all these charlatans, I'm most you know, claim they know what the market is going to do. And everybody knows they can't project the market. And everyone knows the market is efficient. So what exactly does he have? So I decided to take one signal for each of those dates in April, just to review what we saw on those individual dates. So for example, April 4th, we had two signals. This is just single one of two signals. And as I said, the Nasdaq's five day volume was at a 200 day high. The Nasdaq had lost 10.61% over three days. The threshold for the signal is losing 7%. And the VIX traded between 545 and 60, which is a which a rarity. The VIX in our case was 45.31. That generated signal, gave you a buy signals. As you can see, these are the two historical buy signals. This is the great buy signal we have on April 4th, day before the low. April 7th, 2025, we also have two signals. Now, what did you see in this one? First of all, instead of looking at the Nasdaq volume, looking at the Neurostactic change total volume. And it's total volume was the highest in 370 days, some time within the past 20 days. Now, what does that mean? It means we're in a regime of high volume. People who know markets know that 30 points take place in a regime of high volume. You don't necessarily see the highest volume on the day of the low or the day of the high. But you do see very, very high 5V volume sometime before the low or sometimes before the high. And we use 20 days as thresholds. So if we saw 5V volume in the Neurostactic change, highest in 375 days, 0 in the end of trading, we saw that within the past 20 days, we know we're in a regime of high volume. Now, that's number one. Number two is this is an isolated generated by net data research. I put that for this indicator, but we actually have made some minor changes. But any event that actually with that 10, it runs from 0 to 100. That actually was actually at 4.44 on April 7th, 2025. It ranges from 0 to 100. Obviously, it was major oversold. And the threshold here if it's 10 or below. The third indicator is we take the new highs and new lows in the Nasdaq on a five day basis. And you took the percentage of new highs to the lows. And any event was oversold at minus 16%. And this again occurred at the lows in 1998, occurred at the lows in 2018, it occurred at the March lows in 2020, and it occurred on April 7th, 2025 at the lows. That's one single on April 7th. We already showed you the projections, but as you said, anyone could show projections. You want to show you under the hood and see exactly what was signaling. Again, we're not using moving averages. We're not using crossing. We're not using Fed Fed. We're not using seasonality. We're not talking about, you know, if the market's up first five days, a January-labible market. We're talking about precise rarities that occur at market trinic points. Let's see what happened in April 8th. April 8th hit four signals. This is one of the four signals. Nasdaq five day rated change was weakest in 1,260 days. You know what that means? It's in five years. The five day loss in Nasdaq was the greatest in over five day period. Of course, everyone agree that's a rarity. You don't see that every day. In this case, it was down 12.50% over the five day period into into April 8th. Then, on additionally, the SP 500 four day advanced decline ratio generated what you call a reverse thrust. First, that means instead of being two to one or seven to one day like today, let's see what it's today. Today, it's about three to one, right? They're at 0.2 to one. In other words, so you were overwhelmed. The five the four day a D line was overwhelming on the downside and it was below. I mean, the amount of stocks that were declining as opposed to advancing was overwhelming. Overwhelming to the downside, but extremely overwhelming, extremely, extremely overwhelming. We're not looking at average it. Okay, let's continue. Then, April 9th, April 9th, they said we had 50 signals or so. We really have more, but you know, but my mind and my computer can't handle much more. Let's see, we have an April 9th. April 9th, you mocked it at 9%. The SP was at 9.52% on the day. Nasdaq was at more than 9%. You had overwhelming 95, 4 upside-downs at volume, but this is not what this indicator showed you. Some else as the people below is to a fifth day moving average, meaning that the SP was by definition, by some even definition, it was in a beer market. That's the first criteria. That's really nothing. Second is the market gained at least 6% from its last time it declined 10%. In other words, half percent been declined 18% into the previous days low, and this day was up 9.52%. By definition, it gained 6% from its last 10% decline, but just to be precise, it's not enough to gain 6%. This has to be the highest high off that low. So, in other words, the SP could lose 10% is now 6% off that low, but today is the highest high off that low. That again reduces the number of days because in any bull market, the SP is up 6% from its last 10% decline. But it's not enough to have 6% to release 10% decline. This has to be the exact high day since that 10% decline. Next one is the SP generates greatest gain in the last 250 days, which is roughly a trading year. That's 9.52% the greatest one they gained. On top of that, the S&P's volume on the day had to have increased by at least 20% over the previous day. In this case, it increased 38.28% over the previous day. The second condition is it has been updates. So, in very often market crashes, the market has down in the day and the volume increases by 20%. This indicated needs the marks to be up on the day and the volume to have increased by 20%. When all these four things come together, you saw bottoms in 1976. You saw bottoms in 1982. You saw bottoms in 1984. You saw double bottom in 2022 and in June and in October 2022. Jack, if you recall, we met then, we had a discussion. I pointed out that the Russell actually bottomed in June and the S&P bottomed in October and Nasick bottomed in December. Both of these calls were correct. We had a bicycle at the bottom in June and a pricing at the bottom in October. The June signal actually was the bottom of the Russell. Never made a low low. The S&P made a low about 2% below June and we got a bicycle that in October. Again, you had a bicycle October 9th, 2025. This is 1 to 57 by single. Again, my point is to show the real busts into the signal. I don't want to show off too much but knowing on Wall Street has this kind of information. We're really the only one. This particular model that we have, I just finished, I mean, institutions have been writing letters and working institutions for quite a number of years but on the side, I've been working on creating these models and I just finished it in September. A lot of things you see now was really relatively new. I wasn't able to show it to clients a year ago or two years ago because we didn't really finish creating the models and fine tuning the models and eliminating models that didn't have perfect records until September. So April 10th, 2025. Again, when you show the topic, it's the first time this ever signals. So the first one, for example, April 4th, the first time out of the signals October 8th, 1998, you see. On April 7th, the first time out of the signal was September 1st, 1998. The April 8th signal, the first time this particular signal was March 27th, 1980. And the first time the April 9th was on April 14th, 1978. And then we have another signal on October 9th, April 10th, 2025. That signal is day of the career slow in 1987. Why does this signal? Basically, the 70 volume breath, no polarity. The model doesn't care whether the volume was up or the volume was down. All it cares about that on a 70 basis, you have 12 times as much either upside volume or downside volume as the other side. In other words, either 12 times as much upside versus downside or 12 times as much downside versus upside. The model doesn't care which extreme it is. All the market cares about is that it's at an extreme. In this particular instance, by April 10th, the 7th day volume breath was 12 to 1 on the upside in the New York Stock Exchange. The 7th day volume breath in the Russell 2000 was 10 to 1. And the 10th day volume breath in the Russell 2000 was 8 to 1. And on top of that, the newest actually volume on a 5-day average was the greatest over the last three years. These four realities put together have signals 17 times in the past as they can see. In ancient sense, a bull market followed and that's why we're able to pound the table and say a bull market will follow. Thank you, Milton. So it's fair to say you were able to spot in April at the low, a few days within the low, sigged, overwhelming signals of the market, bottoming that turned out to be correct. And what's interesting to me is we're already, you know, close to a year out and the S&P has up 38%, maybe 40% from there. And your signals from April are so strongly bullish that you want more. You're saying 5%, 6%. Well, I don't know how good this is. This is a very interesting. I'm really going to bring it to the first level. We haven't had a 7% correction since April lows. We have a 5% correction within two days and a low. But you don't have, never had a 7% correction. Forget about 10%. More than that, it's glad you mentioned. And now, usually came up in, and it proves its view was, you know, when, when, when, uh, who's a great baseball player? I mentioned 10 Williams or, or Babe Ruth, but now they're these guy, or tiny, right? Right? Yeah. Tiny things are bad and it's a home run based on physics. The physics knows that the, the, the the bro will cross over will be a home run over the fence. As soon as it leaves the bat, right? There's nothing going on. If it leaves the bat, that's keeping the ball up and telling it to cross, cross over the fence. It's the momentum of the action that, and the physics that took place when the bat hit the ball that tells you at that time that's going over the fence. It was a launch. It was the launch of four space. But what we're looking for on the, on the buy singles are launches. So the fact that the marker was able to have a, a 95 to an upside volume day one day after the low. And other things we look at, that tells you there is underlying Physics, underline momentum, underline strength that doesn't dissipate in five days or ten days or twenty days and generally it lasts a year or longer. I've got to ask you so it was a very strong thrust from that bottom on April 8th around there until the very late October, October 29th, 2025. Since then, it feels the market's been feeling very bullish but we're kind of kind of in a holding pattern. I'm sure you're going to reference indicators, buy signals and sell signals from April 25th all the way throughout the fall and winter. But just if possible, could I bring you back to the current moment right now? What would be the worst thing you say because we got signals in April, we got signals some signals in May, no signals in June, no signals in July, one signal in August, which is really not part of the model. I don't really trust that signal. So there's no really confirming signals throughout the bull market. All we have, we have an April in May, it's all we have going for us. And yes, as you saw, the market really isn't as well as you'd expect based on the signals. Right, we showed you really underperforming, we should be up another four or six, eight percent. But maybe we still may get there by the time the year is up. Have you got any sell signals recently? First of all, we wrote a report today. I think I should first start by talk today and what we spoke about the last week or so. So this morning's report is right here. The market is strangely oversold, not ready to go back pretty short. In other words, the reason to believe, even though we were wearing the market, it has to be only declined 2.58 percent over the J827 all time high. And even the NASDAQ has only declined 5.92 percent from October 29th high to yesterday's close. And the rest will only decline 5 to 19 percent. So not in certain no-page of your market, really just in my own correction. Still, still VIX, VXN has gained 10 percent for two days running. VXN has gained 35 percent over three days. NASDAQ has generated its weakest 5 days and 180 days. And 5 days volume in most indexes, most of them both have small caps and a large caps are 180 to 200 days highs. Now what does that mean? I'm going to show you something here. It's only one time in history, but you saw what you saw yesterday, which is the NASDAQ index generating its weakest 5 day gain, or we're actually 5 day loss, weakest 5 day gain in 180 days. The NASDAQ AD line declining 8 out of 10 days in a row, 8 out of 10 days you have declining AD line. And the VXN gained 35 percent over three days. These are three rear indicators to see. And for them to happen one day only happen once. And guess what happened? It happened with a sharp short correction in 1997 right here. Now what have we had now? We had a sharp short correction. The Russell picked the late January. It's still early February. The mid cap picked in January. The socks index, the semi-ducts, the pick I think on January 30th or maybe if you know, so they just picked two or three days or four days ago. A sharp short correction, which caused the NASDAQ to have its weakest 5 day gain in 180 days and 8 out of 10 days declining AD line. And for the VXN which is a VXN in the NASDAQ to get 35 percent over three days. And when it ever happened once before, not during a rear market, during a minor correction took 14 days is correct. That happened again yesterday. That's the reason to improve that particular instance. The market gained 35 percent without a pullback. Again, the full 39 percent without a pullback you see. Today we're having a very big day. We have the biggest distance may in the markets. Okay, today we're free Friday February 6th. Extremely strong. I mean, today you look at the socks index which looks like it's breaking down. Socks at this moment of 5.59 percent. Okay, anyway, there's one reason to consider carbon shorts. Then let me continue with this report. There's another reason to continue carbon shorts because VXN gained 10 percent for two days. I'm sorry, I guess I got to go back. First of all, why have you been short in your model portfolio? I would get important. I say what we saw today. I'm going to get back to exactly why we're short. All right, all right. It's actually in this report. First of clients, if the following what I'm saying this short, I myself am short. Right. The problem is you see actually yesterday that suggests to cover the shorts. We're going to see exactly why we're short and whether the evidence we see today is sufficient to cover the shorts. Based on what I just showed you, only had one precedence in a sharp unexpected decline at least just a number of days. You saw these indicators which exactly happened yesterday in that case the market. That was its bottom and it gained 35 percent before it's next high. And the second thing we saw was this where they fixed VXN gained 10 percent for two days running VXN gave 35 percent and three days. And as X 5.0 client was a grace 180 days. This happened eight times in the past. And let's just show you the instances 1998. It was at a market low SAP gain 38 percent. It happened twice in the 2010 was during the flush crash. In this case, the market with that notice another 7.9 percent. So it's not a perfect indicator October 13, 2014. The market gained another 13 percent. And then the next day which is another buy signal again 11 percent in 50 days. And then you have August 5, 2024 after a sharp correction in the S&P. The market bottom on that day and gained 18.468. And it's signal on August 4, 2025 as well. And this is not part of a model. These are the kind of things we study each day. A model is a fixed when they signal we know these signal. Every day I look at it and I indicate it's what it's telling us. This is one of the things it's telling us. So basically I'm telling myself it's quite possible that we saw yesterday was low. I want to see some more confirmation. Maybe it's not a low. Maybe it's going to be more likely to flash crash. In this case, right. We're the market went down to another 7.9 percent. We haven't seen this action early in the bull market bear month. Let's put it that way. We've seen it during corrective periods and market bottoms one or two months later at the worst. We've never seen this kind of action early in the bull market. So that's very promising Milton that the action that we saw yesterday on Thursday, February 5. You often you have seen in multiple local bottoms suggesting that it's it's a bullish indicator. I don't have enough of me to cover my shorts, but when I realize that the S of you down less than 3 percent. And that's it without less than 6 percent of its highs. And still you saw panic in my indicators is rare indicators that I suggest that we're all going to be fooled and the market could take off. But I haven't I haven't triggered this yet. I realize my retail newsletter clients are still long because they had no reason to get out. They're not traders. They're long trip investors will get down in a moment and they're sitting pretty today. My institutional investors are not. Of course, either they may be short gold, maybe short socks, maybe short the Namsack, maybe short the Russell, maybe short the S&P and the role or screaming today. But this is why we went short. This is the reason we went short right here. Okay. I'm going to show it later on. We got a sell signal on December 11th. See the December 11th, 2025. We got a sell signal. This sell signal does not always work. Okay. In other words, this sell signal is telling you that the VX. I don't want to give the the the secret sauce, but it's looking at a short term rated change in the VXM, which is a VX and the Namsack. Related to another short term VXM, which is longer than the first shorter term. I want to see a sharp shift in the VXN on a short term basis relative to the previous short term basis. How can I give you a number? I'd say five days relative to 30 days. I tell you 10 days relative to 30 days. Those are not the real numbers. Anyway, these give these. Is it an increase in the in the Nasdaq mix? It has to be increased on a very short term, rather over previous short term. Okay. You can tell me after the call Milton, but for now, yeah. Okay. Yes, I guess I could. But listen, so in this case, this catches bear market rallies, though with singles, when the markets up 18 or 15% of bear market catches rallies, it catches major bear market, major bull market peaks. But during an extended bill, bull market, which you may be having now, it gives a number of four singles. I've pulled out the successful singles from 1998. And we're tracking is the market following what it does when the singles are successful. If it's not, we get out of the short. In other words, we're going short on a probabilistic basis, long, you may be wrong. So let me show you what we do on how much your market has has gained since December 11th. Take it if you wouldn't look at this table. What's the maximum gains in December 11th? I've been talking about the great new year in the bull moment, right? Okay. I'll get I guess I guess seven percent. What the market's S&P gained a maximum of 1.12% since December 11th. That's all. Really? Wow. I want to show you the chart. If you'd like, I believe you. Okay. Are there anyone I believe Milton is you from the seven or 11th close to the seven to the January 27th close, which was a final all time high in the S&P. It's only gained 1.12%. Now, when the success six is what successful, you see instances where again 1.8, 1.98, 5.17%. 2.61, 2.72. So right now the way the market has acted off the off those highs is very consistent with successful signals. Got it? Uh-huh. It's only getting hasn't really moved. Now, secondly, let's see, we're now 37 days past the signal yesterday's close. We were 37 days past the signal. How has the S&P done? Now has been hasn't collapsed. It's only down 1.49% since December 11th. But let me show you something. In the year 2000, the signal on June 12th, the market was up 0.45% 37 days later. Yet it gave a total decline of the signal of 23.70%. Oh, it was just later. 58 days later. Right, right. The signal would be later. but the point is the market held up just as it's held up now, or actually it's held up then as well, secondly, in here, it was up 0.31% in 2001, but from the data to the signal, the ultimate the climate is 32%. And then again in 2015, excuse me, yeah, it was up 1.07% by day 37, but it's ultimately 30% and again in 2021, it was up 0.36% through day 37 and it's ultimately going to 21% and so therefore I told my clients yes, we're short since December 11th, yes the market hasn't gone down, however the market hasn't gone up, the only got up 1.12% maximum and looking at the instances in the past for the signal work by day 37, in many instances it was up, we're down 1.49% so my recommendation to the institutions, now they don't follow me, they just use me as an input obviously, if people managing billions and trillions of dollars, I'm just one input, hopefully I'll be one of the best inputs, but I'm just one input. But in any event, based on this successful short signal, we should still be short now, it might change at today's close for all I know, right? But based on this successful short signal in the past, let's face it, only up 1.1% in December 11th in the S&P and yesterday's close, we were down 1.49% which is totally consistent with previous successful signals. This is the one reason I went short, nothing to do with the fed, nothing to do with Trump, nothing to do with moving averages, simple and indicated, it doesn't have a perfect record, but it works great at calling market peaks and bear market value peaks, and since we have no new buy signals since since May and we have one buy signal in June which is I'll get to maybe later with a week's buy signal, we're giving the benefit of that to the short side. However, I will tell you a retail investor who's following my work would sit through a correction of 456, even 7% and not get out and we're very long to more oriented for institutions, we're trading our tinder, we can go short, we can go long, we can go leverage, it's a totally different ballgame, and this is the reason we got short, just because of this, once you have course, in the back of my mind, I know there's a recession in the K-100% record that's now in a cell which is the rate of change of the unemployment rate, that's suggesting recession, I know the leading indicator that's still suggesting recession, and maybe there'll be recession, maybe there'll be depression, maybe great deflation, maybe there'll be inflation, we don't really care, we just care about the indicators, and the back of my mind, I know if you're going to get a major bear market, there'll be some sort of event that we probably can't even predict that's going to be associated with that bear market. I think I already asked you this Milton, but it was the move in the Nasdaq VIX, VXN, was it a decline or increase? It's actually a decline, it signals that after rallies, it's actually a decline, sorry, it's a sharp decline, let's say it's five days, but it's not five days, it's actually five days relative to 30 days, it's not 50 days, it's not 20 days, you want to see a sharp decline in VIX relative to the rate of change for a longer period. It's basically it's inclusive, the five days include the 30 days, you see, it's not five days and the previous 25 days, it's five days and 30 days including these five days, which has to be greater extreme. I see, so it's investors who were hedged as bidding up options, they got rid of their hedges too quickly. They're very optimistic of the market on a very short term basis showing up in these numbers, right? Exactly, it's a shift in expected volatility, which is a shift in bullishness, which doesn't always show up in the institutional in the retail newsletter followers, doesn't always show up necessary and pull call ratios, but it shows up in this indicator precisely near-market peaks. Yes, almost never. Was it two coincidence things, this VXN thing happening and something else or was just the thing? No, we could run in the case of VXN itself, one in the case, they say it's not a perfect record. This is special because most of the times people see implied volatility falling or even crashing and they see that as a giant buying opportunity for you who makes you nervous. That's very interesting. No, no, no, no, no, no, context, context, context, Jack, if this would have, this would have signal on June 15th, I wouldn't, it didn't, but if it did, I would have ignored it because it was just coming right off a major low with major buy signals. Since it's signal link in December, after the market, we have to say April, and since I got no additional confirming buy signals, that's when I will try to act on this. In other words, when I tell you that signal is not always perfect, and I mentioned that in bull markets, you're going to get four signals, I'm aware of that. I'm not going to, during the bull market, I'm not going to have four full signals that I'm going to follow. I'm going to follow signals in which the market has already gained significantly and there's no confirming buy signals. That makes sense. To me, you're normally, normally, Milton, you get an overwhelming constellation. It's like a parade of buy signals or sell signals that motivate you, just let me finish, that motivate you to establish a position. It's interesting me, Milton, and maybe I won't without your permission disclose just exactly how short you are in your model portfolio, but I can tell our audience very, very, very short. It's interesting to me that it indicates why you have such a large short position given this one reading. One of the things that I talked about, we went to show you in December 11th, we added short subsequently based on other things, I just want to show you, we're long into December 11th, we're short on December 11th, I'm trying to show you why, really. I want to tell you one other thing, and I know most technicians won't admit to this. Many will, but many won't. It is so much easier to call a market bottom, technically, than to call a market peak. Okay, yet, yet, technicians, I already afraid to call a market bottom and I'm never afraid to call a market peak. That's still wrong at the top, and there's so wrong at the bottom. It's so amazing. In other words, it's easier to call bottoms, but everyone's always afraid to call the bottom, but it's so much easier technically. Calling a top is very, very difficult for everybody because top, it's in stock, not necessarily in commodities. Clients are easy, but stocks are around the tops, and there's always groups that are doing well even on the market's peak. So stocks are much more difficult, and it's funny enough, everyone's out there, you see people, you see people, you see all calling for market crashes, market crashes, market crashes, calling it for six months, eight months, nine months, ten years, in a row, you understand? Somehow they find it easy to call for market crashes, they're very difficult market bottoms, even though market bottoms are so much easy to call, and market tops are much more difficult to call. Sophisticated investors don't typically park their cash in high yield savings accounts. Instead, when they want yield, they turn to one of the fastest growing asset classes for institutional investors, private credit. 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Back to the interview. Okay, you want to talk a bit more about stocks I could talk about because I have a lot more about stocks. Let's tease the people a little bit. Let's let's let them wait. Let's talk more about stocks. We will get into Bitcoin. We will get into gold. We will get into silver. But yeah, what were the other signals you saw since? Let me show you. Let me actually let me do this control. If you can't see the screen, let me know. I will. Russell 2000. We call this. I actually sent out the email at 401. I started writing it at 10 minutes to 4 on January 23rd. They have to the top. As it closed. This is a Russell 2000. This is a chart. You can see the where I'm circling here. The circle. Yes. You see this island reversal. I mean, it gets into the update and it gets down. You can make a little island. This bar on the top is an island. You see what I mean by island. Can you explain what this means and what it indicates in a bigger? I'll tell you what it means. When the market gaps to the up now, some people don't want to see what a gap is. A gap doesn't mean the market opened higher than yesterday's close. That's not a gap. A gap means it opened higher than yesterday's high and the downside gap means it opened lower than yesterday's low. For a gapy valid, it has to trade the whole day with the gap not being filled. In other words, if the market is up on a date and it opens higher than at a previous high, but at the end of the day, it remains higher than it always remains higher than it in the day's previous high. That's an upside gap. The downside gap is just the opposite. The market opens below the previous day's low and throughout the day it remained its highest high of the day with below the previous day's previous low. That's a gap. A gap basically is telling you there's an emotional move. That's what a gap is supposed to tell you. It's an emotional move in the market. It's very, very rare. In some markets, more real than other markets, but it's very rare to see a market gap at all. I'll show you some markets that almost never gap. But there's something called an island reversal, which is just two gaps. One gap that takes place on the way up and another gap that takes it on the way down and you could make an island. There's an air pocket between between those two gaps. Now, I showed you this one, but this is a unique gap. The only time it ever happened in history of the Russell 2000. What does that mean? It's the one day island I called an isolated one day island reversal at the top. The Russell 2000 was really, really very, very ill-athargic for quite a number of years, as you know, right? All of a sudden in January, January people are saying the market is broadening the market is broadening wow look the small caps are moving right Everyone was saying it even the bears were saying it. Oh, you know The AI is gonna go down, but the Russell gonna continue higher use their shift in rotation right and People believed it so much from the extent that on January 22nd the day of the final high so far in the Russell the market gaped up But that's all we have to story the next day the market gap down and you created a one-day island reversal one day and this never happened before ever Never in the Russell 2000 usually an hour versus have three days or six days. I'll show you the history I have a way through every island reversal history in the Russell got it So I'm not just talking out of my hand. I know you're not talking your hand yet Which Russell 2000 is the US small caps Russell 2000 and I literally said the Russell 2000 is giving a very very very very signal so we had the cell signal on December 11th in the S&P S&P only was up maximum 1.12 percent above its high in them in the actually by January 22nd What is it? 1.12 percent because it picked on January 27th, but anyway? This is another reason to suggest the market might be topping and in fact the Russell just out with the three S&S blows were down I think seven percent of its high whatever I'm showing you this is an island reversal gap is negative I looked at previous tops that occurred with now you see and you had you had a you had a you have a gap up right off the Loes of April you see a gap up in May if a gap up in June you ignore these gas because the markets coming off a thrust low You don't just like we don't look at the you don't look at the VXN cell signal Right off the low because of course VXN is going to collapse right off low So too will be a lot of enthusiasm when the market is coming off low, but we're looking at this We're everyone so excited about the Russell claiming that it's starting to break out claiming you see a broadening and that's where you see your Ironwood Rose means it gaps up gaps down and then it continues low now We wrote our report the date gap down. Of course continued lower and TSA's close So this is showing early in the move you see multiple you see multiple gaps which are considered by signals See context is the key of many indicators Gaps and not random gaps take place or flows and got to face into tops You have to know where you are what where your potential you are This is July 17th 2000 this again It wasn't an idle reversal it was two gap days in the row off the high two gap downs and that marked the top of the market The market tested never made it higher high and then it declined some 40% of the next two years from July 72,000 to the to the bottom of the bear market you saw over here again in September 2008 I realized Lehman the you there was a financial crisis and and for some reason on that day there's some positive news out of the Fed And it wasn't 2000 gained 19.85% on the day Milton only because I'm a giant nerd and I've read a lot of books about 2008. I think that was Not you know your technician not that you you think it you it doesn't I live through it But I sort of I remember the market did about forget the new stimulus bill that was I think was going to go through Congress and then it didn't pass and it was a 19% in today 98% Gapped up to the top and then it declined 60% it's fine along this is the continuation gap So I'm pointing out we see important gaps that previous speaks now look at this one. This is on January 17th 2020 remember that you remember the covid crisis. I think so right covid crisis. Yep. The current crisis didn't really begin until really much But the Russell knew about the covid crisis the Russell gapped up one day before its peak one day before the old time mind the Russell 2000 on January 70 2020 the Russell gapped up that was it's high that It's further gaps into the second they're right, but this is again a sign of a market peak It's the uncalled for enthusiasm at a new high got it In that case the market declined another 43% to its low and I showed 2007 a various gap I don't take too much time on this. I just want to justify why I'm able to are going through history of gaps I mean the only other I see this is our island reversal. This is our current market. You didn't want to show it earlier January 22nd 2016 right The peak in the Vemba 15th 2024 the final peak in that in that rally was also on a gap day, you see Then a market declined 29% 90% To find a an island reversal in the Russell the right island reversal. Let me see if I think I highlighted an island reversal here No, this is not a true island reversal now I Think I highlight one but I don't take too much time in it now But the the one day island versus we had now which I called it an isolated one day on reverse like the top Has never before occurred in the Russell the cruising commodities often enough? Has never occurred in the Russell and the reason to occur this time is because everyone's so enthusiastic about the Russell Rather than understanding I wrote to my reports rather than understanding that in nearly every bull market in history It picks when the lager start moving it doesn't pick when the previous Movers start moving it picks when the lager start moving in the general they called the generals and the troops The general slowed down and they let the troops get killed you understand and I'm sorry Are those are the lagers would they be high beta high risk high Every market is a different laggy Sometimes a little beta like opa cola but sometimes it's a the small cap like the Russell 2000 in this case The Russell thousand the sp600 is very little for the last four years and all of a sudden it's not surging into a pig and everyone's claiming Bullish bullish bullish market breath breath is is increasing and the market is broadening and get out of your AI and just buy the small caps And I say no, no, it's happened so typical at the top of a bull market where the they call it the dogs right the dogs It's expression really about the dogs lead the pack, you know, yeah, yeah, so yeah, these are the dogs I think 40% there was 2000 have no earnings, you know a negative earnings so This is not a quality indicating called small cap whatever they're the great small caps and they're a garbage small caps There's about 40% of it on small caps that I really know earnings. I just wanted to point out what we saw which is this amazing One day it's another reason to be bearish again There's another reason back made why I'm not I didn't use this is action to cover my shorts Even though there's some historical instances my models didn't go long. I just gave instances where it might be about them I'm still you know Topsy very difficult to call bottom is difficult to call and This bottom if the 20% decline in the S&P less than 3% you know, it's highly likely it's a bottom and maybe we'll be a shop short correction that ends We'll see I'm trying to tell you that I'm not pounding table. I'm not sure. I'm trying to show what we tell our clients We don't every day have a strong opinion like most people try to do My strong opinion is that we're in a bullmark the gun in April and the market shook it to new hire It's projected to go higher unless you see something different We haven't seen anything major different except the vxs and so single in in December and these things like for example This gap up in the Russell 2000. Let's see. Let's get it. Let's um Let's um Let me show you the last bite so we ever got if you if that's interesting for you absolutely I said less single we got was in August 13th, but you said you didn't like it. I don't like it. I tell you why? Why? This signal occurs when the Russell declines at least 5% bottom day days go many didn't make a lower low for eight days So on August On August is first signal on April 9th 2009, but it's the latest signals on August 13th, 2025 In that case the Russell is down like 5.5 percent as few as down like less than 2 percent the rest of the market didn't pull back The Russell pulled back held its low for eight days and on the eighth day It exhibit an upside gap Maybe it's an upside gaps come a grade after a low and the bearish when you when you have to market it has an extended rally This is one of the cases where you get an upside gap just eight days after a low now the low is only 5 percent And most of these instances it wasn't just the Russell down 5 percent many other disease were down in this case A only the Russell was down 5 percent even the sp600 small cap wasn't down 5 percent And on the day 8 gap to the upside let me show you the history of this one This is it's signal on April 9th 2009 right after a major bear market down with a 56 percent bear market It was like right the signal on So a 42,000 also early in a bull market still on December the 30 2010 after 19 percent decline in the S&P The signal on 2012 This is more of a after rally, but you did have a great low in in 2011 at the lows It's single here it's single during a during an up move from 2017 here it's signaled After 220 lows in at the June correction And now it's signal here now when I saw the signal like I really I think it's a weak signal, but basically the S&P the S&P is up 7.9 percent since then Which is not a bad move. Why do I say it's not a bad move? It's only up 7.9 percent since August 13th When I look at the history of the other successful moves you see right here. It's a table This shows all those nine instances when we got the same signal The night the I'm showing you the night you're looking at the results for the S&P Even though the signal was for the Russell. Yeah. Yes. Yes. I showed my clients the signals to the Russell But I trade basically the mile to build the cold the S&P Okay, we're looking at okay, that's that's the point But the point over here is is that Through 90 days the maximum gain was 6.72 which seems pretty weak right However in 2016 the maximum gain 390 is only 2.83 percent and we're not to gain 15 percent you see in 2012 by day 90 through 90 days There's only a 5.38 percent and yet again the total 22 percent within a year In 2009 it was up 5.33 percent through day 90 and it ended up on 11.47 so the fact that we're only up 6.72 percent It's not really troubling But this doesn't go into my models. It's not robust enough as far as I'm concerned So I say I built models to call markets which we'll talk about through retail and so on This doesn't go into my models. This is something that I show my clients Just to show you what's going on in the market, I did not put much weight into this particular single, but we're on a buy single off the lows anyway, but I didn't put much weight into the single. Because you're looking for a gap up after a decline, and only the Russell decline, there's only a minor decline of 5%, and in Russell, 5% decline is really just a hiccup, just to random event. Russell's farm of all to live in the S&P. So that's that one, okay? Now to sum it up, say this is very important. This is very important because you would think that I just showed some signals with some data. You think I wouldn't even follow the standard technical stuff, but I actually believe it or not, I actually follow standard technical stuff as well. I know Milton, I was looking at some of the data and all the materials you sent, almost all the time you have very few charts, all tables and data, but this time I said, Milton, making charts, what's going on? Now please, charts are just reflecting where the data is, but let me show you this. We looked at every great market peaks since 1966, okay? Every market top of the S&P, we looked for minimum decline of 18% in the S&P. So for example, 1966 market picked on February 9th and the client 22%. That's in 1981. The S&P picked on the actual amount of the Dow picked in April 27th, client 24%, and the peak that April made 29th, client 28% and so on. 87, S&P picked on August 25th to client 33%. You see, we're looking at every decline of at least 18%. In 2000, the S&P picked the March 24th down 49%, Nathanapeek picked the March 10th down 77th and so on and so forth. And the total amount of these aren't just highs, they're highs that specifically were the peak. The final highs in the market. Final highs, not just highs, final highs in the market. The final highs in the market for the client of 18%. Final final highs, okay? Because most of the time, sorry, but most of the time highs are actually bullish, right? Well, until it's bearish, yeah. Most of the time bullish until it's bearish, right? But yeah, because the market makes a series of higher highs till it's final high. I mean, market makes 50 higher highs till it's final highs. Yes, if you look at it that way, of course, highs are generally bullish. It's questions what takes place at the highs? For example, I'll give you, I highly, I highly, with a little red arrows, there are four pages, by the way, okay? I have data. Yep. Like the 10 day, 10 day trend. Now, I hate to explain what trend is because even I always found a difficult to understand. I just now I've found that I prepared, I looked it up before. It's ratio of upside volume to ratio of downside volume. No, that's yes. That's all you have to raise to it. It's a ratio of the ratio of upside down to downside volume to the ratio of upside stocks to downside stocks. It's a ratio of a ratio. In other words, in that enough to have high upside volume, you have to have high upside volume relative to the number of stocks that went up. So, for example, if you have 10 to one upside volume and you have 10 times as many stocks up as down, the trend will be one neutral. However, if you had 10 times to one upside volume and only at a one point ratio of upside down stocks, you see, then the trend will be 0.50. That'll be very, very low ratio because the upside volume is overwhelming to such an extent that it takes the ratio ratio down. But any event, I don't want to get into the trend because I'll have to get into everything and it's going to take too long. But the 10-day trend in the Nasdaq at the day of the peak of January 27th of the S&P was 0.76. Now, this is exactly the meeting you see at previous market peaks. It's been 0.780, you see? But right at what you normally see at a market now, I'm sure all for pages are all yellow. When they're red, when any column is red, it means they're not consistent with what you see in their previous market peak. Everything is consistent, but many of them aren't the medians, for example. 25, the Neurostoxian trend of 0.98, the median is 0.96. Let's look at this one. 10-day advanced declines in the Nasdaq. The Neurostoxian is 1.0701. The median at the major peak is 1.0901, at the median. What about the number of 52 week highs in the S&P? On December, January 27th of the 50-45, which seems like a high number. But in fact, the median peak at final market peaks is 47, and we're right there. I think we can go on and on and on. Let me find an interesting one. Let's look at rates of change. That's really important. Let's look at the six month rated change in the S&P. You know, the S&P has only gained 9.22% of less six months, even though it's up 37% since April. It's slowed down. The median is 10.08% at the top. Let's look at the Nasdaq. You know, the Nasdaq is only up 12.46% over less six months, even though it's up 45% off the lows. But the median at a peak is 13.19. Let's look at the smaller caps, because we're all talking about small caps. The S&P 400 is mid cap. It's 6.988.5%, but the median is 10.94 below the median gain. It's weaker than you'd expect at the top. You see? So these are the. I tell me about threshold and what that means? Threshold means if it'd be above this level, it would return red. And then it's 6.988 in the Nasdaq would be above 81.11. It's totally inconsistent with what you see at a market peak. I've never seen that strength at a market peak. Well, let's look at the number of highs in the S&P, because that actually helped me out in 2023. Let me show you that. S&P is page one. 52-E highs. The threshold is 87. There's a period during 19, 2024 where most of these things were yellow, but the number of highs were about 92. I think you may have talked to me about that, Milton. Yeah. We showed me that's not the market. Generally, you wouldn't expect that to be the market peak, because you never saw market peak with that many new highs. Okay? Just showing you something else we look at. You just went through a lot of the data, but I didn't hear a lot of conclusions. What were some of the conclusions? Well, here is. Yeah, yeah. If anyone's telling you, if anyone's telling you that the market action is inconsistent with action seen at previous market peaks, or if anyone tells you that federal reserve action is inconsistent with what we've seen at the previous market peaks, or if anyone tells you that the rate of change of interest rates of the long bond is inconsistent with what you've seen at market peaks, I would show them my technicals at the high and show all of these things are in my table, and all these things are consistent with what you've seen at prior market peaks. You're saying that you're seeing signs of market. You're saying that no one can argue that the market can't peak now based on technical data. They can argue that we're not at a peak, but they can't argue that we can't peak. In other words, sometimes very often, you know, hefty data is red, meaning the market is showing signs that it's not peaking. And red, and this instance is good. In the same way, red in China means stock market goes up. No, no, red means that it's not consistent with what you've seen at previous peaks. I mean, a good example would be the five day breath. Like for example, let me show. Let's get the five day breath. Five day events are climbed, you see? They're 1.33. If it's above 2.3, 2.34, you're not going to see a market peak. It's going to be a thrust. Only once did you see it above two? That was back in 1976. Now, 19.6, just to let you know, was one of the strangest markets because the SIP picked the Dowpeak. They climbed about 18%. At the same time, the American stock exchange. I don't think exists anymore, which was a small cap index of the day, was in a major bull market gaining 30%. It was mainly in oil stocks, but the oil stocks in the SIP were also rallying while the SIP was declining. So, therefore, at the peak, you saw the. At that peak, you saw the oil stock surging and you saw 2.34 to 1 a D line at the peak. But generally, you see at the peak, the D line is. is. Look at it. You never see it even above 1.75, where 1.33, meaning is 1.18. But let me. You had 1.66, 2011 top, also a difficult top. But you. 1.58, 1.52, 2.89, and 90, okay? This is just one example. Five day, it's the clientele. We have a five-day D line, we use as a breath rust, you know? We have we use of 3, 4, 5 to 1 over five day basis, which gives us by signals. But to tell you, you can't expect the market to peak, even at a 2 to 1 level. You wouldn't expect the market, we're not there now, you understand? If you had 90 new 52-EQI's in the S&P when you less-sword the high, this only looks at the days of highs. So, if January 27 could have been the final high because the date is consistent, it doesn't mean that it is the final high. It means it could be the final high. And you're looking at. As you can see, we look at many things, you know? We don't just hang your hat on one indicator. Yes. Okay. Let's see what else you want to. You talk, you don't want to talk about many things to talk about. We'll return to stocks, and we will. I promise our audience just get into the commodities, gold, silver, maybe a little oil, but also particularly Bitcoin. But Milton, I just want to take a lot of the work that you've been showing is for institutional clients, some of the biggest and most successful hedge funds in the world. You recently launched a product that is for individual investors, you know? I include myself in that category. What is different about this product? Tell us a little bit about the value that you think could provide. I'm going to take it step by step, but basically before even show it at a chart or show it at a data, individual investors find it very, very difficult because they read the news and they hear the news and they try to follow financial reports. I'm even listening to great podcasts like Jack, follow his great podcast. They always get conflicting opinions. They don't know what to decide for themselves. They're out of the market, when the market's rallying. They get into the market close to the top, you know? It's very difficult for an individual investor. And I went to the create, I spent 10 years working on model. I really didn't plan to build a newsletter for retail investors. I really just wanted to write a book. As you did my research, my research was getting so robust and it fascinated me because I couldn't believe what I was discovering in the market beyond. So if 10 years ago, someone had told me by the time you finished, you're going to have 2800 indicators. You're going to have about 600 indicators that have a perfect track record a mini without a pullback on a bicycle with pullbacks of less than three and a half percent of you know, yeah, I wouldn't believe it's even possible. Most indicated work on percentage, you know, work 65% of the time you're happy. It works 75% of the time you're ecstatic. The indicator is that work historically 100% of the time and they're not made up indicators, not backfitted indicated. We're just looking for weird data that takes place at low. The problem is most people who look at market lows only see what's obvious to them. They open the chart, they see a movie average. There are many, many indicators that I mentioned earlier you saw that are not obvious to the most people. I didn't have the most technicians because they don't follow it on, it's not computerized. Just long as we're talking, I have one of my, one of my spreadsheets open. So here you see, for example, this is today's spreadsheet that I get my indicators on. Oh wow. So, for example, today I saw the VXN, yes, the VXN was up 10% over two days. VXN was 35% in three days. These indexes had the highest three day volume in 200 days, 200 days, 200 years, etc. Again, these indicators, these are not signals. These are just basic indicators. But I want to point out, I'll go to the come which so no signal, you see, it comes with no signal right here. Yep, no signal. I just want to show you how many indicators we have. So you go to no signal. 17,000, 19,000, 20,000. This one will be this one. You see, we have two thousand. 19,000, three indicators that are not signal today. You have 23,000 that do not signal. 23,000, you know, exactly 20,000, 310 that are not signal today. Right. Right. So the point is, we're looking for these things to signal. We're looking for rare signals. I'm not looking for the kind of things people look at every day. Markets of 1%, marks of 2%. You know, we're looking for things that don't take place too often. But when they do take place, they're telling you something. Got it. So sometimes the VXN getting 35% and 3D tells you something and they pointed out, but sometimes it's not sufficient. That's why we're not ready to cover our shorts today. But in the end, by tomorrow, today's action may change things. You know, it's a very, very big bullish day. Okay, let's go back to the retail later one. So I wanted to create something for retail people. I want to create something. Well, I want to create something. I was only able to create an after I did all my work. I realized that the data I'm getting allows me to create something that retail investors never had before. And that is, you know, we're told that if you miss the greatest days of the market, you know, only five days a year, you'll. Yeah. I. Yeah. Right. So if you're going to try to time the market, it's likely going to miss those great days. You know why? Not because by chance, you'll miss those five great days. Because those five great days generally take place early on in a bull market. They don't take place middle of a bull market like the 9% gain you had in an April, in April 9th was early in a bull market, right? See that? So mostly, most of the great gains take place early in a move. You miss, if you don't get an early, you wait for the movie, the average is across, you wait until the fed uses 15 times, you're late and you miss the great move. So on the other hand, I realized in doing my work that it's difficult to call tops. You know, as they say, the recession indicator called, called 18 of the last six bull markets. In other words, tops are more difficult to call. So this is what I did. It's different. We decide we're not going to call market tops at all. We're going to belong the market until it declines. For the model purpose, they used 8%, but for in token purposes, I say 7 or 8%. But for the data you're going to see is all based on a decline of a minimum of 8%. So we said like this, we're going to buy the first bicycle that's generated. The institutions see our hundreds of signals. We're charging our retail people $10 a month. The institutions pay as much as 12,000 a month. So we're not going to give the data away. But we're going to give the retail indicator a buy signal at a first at a first signal, at a first new buy signal after the round of the market. So what gets them out of the market, say they got a bicycle April 4th, they'd still be long because the market has never declined 8%. The maximum decline was 5% in change a few days after the loan. So we're going to say you're going to buy the market, hold on, and you're going to hold on until we get you out. We're going to get you out after about a client of about 8%, which is the model. Why 8%? Very simply. An investor could tolerate an 8% decline if he's ready, made 30% on the upmove. Number one, secondly, he could tell 8% to client if the market is going to decline 44%, or 35%, or 26% or 19%. He's happy to have missed the bulk of the down move, even though he caught the first 8% of the down move. Got it? Number one, we have, we have roughly 55 buy signals since 1957. I'm only showing you the initial buy signal after we're out of the market. I'm not showing it. Estitutional wise, it's thousands of buy signals. For the retail model, we have a buy signal. We had about 55, it says 55 buy in sales since 1957. And this is a chart showing all the buys. List buy, I highlighted April 4th, 2025, the market's up. 38% since then, right? Since April 4th now. These are the buys and the based on the signals, which I'll show you some of the signals. However, one of the sales, when do you get out? So you're going to get out? We don't know what to sell. We're not sure how to cool the sales because sales are very difficult. Top's difficult to call. We're not going to anticipate a beer market. We're not going to say, get out now with the tie of the market because the beer market. You're going to say, you know my clients, you know my retail clients, you know my individual investors who don't have time to sit at a computer all day and watch the market. They'd rather be retired, they'd rather build their retirement count and work in their in the shops and work in their computers or whatever they do. And rather than not watch the market, we'll tell you to get out when the market down to 8%. And then you're just going to treasury bills, which is a great safe investment. Okay? And we'll tell you when to get back in when we get a buy signal. And I wonder what is that done? So in terms of being clear, there is one and only one sales signal. The market's down seven or eight percent. That's it. For the model purposes, while I'm showing you now is based on 8% at a closing basis. In reality, it's seven to eight percent. Yeah. I'm not the first one to you, 17%. William O'Neill, as you know, in his famous Ken Slim model, tells you buy a stock and get out with down seven or eight percent. So I use that term, but the model was built using 8% to be honest. Each of these sales you're going to see with down 8%. Let me go. Let's go to the next page because this is good. This is the, um, this is all the buy dates. Let's see what you did. If you got out down 8%. Now, some of them give you down 10% because the market without 3% the one day. Yeah. This is the batting averages. In other words, the model starts on the first buy still occurs on October 21st, 1957, was a day before the low. The market gave 51.26% before you got out. You got out on September 21st, 59. And you average, the average long, the average long position, getting in to get out, you gain 26%. The average decline when you, when you got out of the loss was 1.41%. A $10,000 invested 1957 following this model, it'd be worth $1,100,000 at the end of the closing training yesterday January 6th. 10 billion. How is it possible? Wait, it compounded the 8% per annum. Try it out. 50, 70 years, 68 years. You started with 10,000? 18,500 per annum starting at 10,000, 68 years. You'll see. It's a billion dollars. Okay. That's it. So the point is though that you're you're not going to, you're a long term investor in the SAP 500. You're not going to pick stocks. You're not going to pick sectors. You're not going to worry about their markets. You're going to be long, you're going to capitalize the most of the big moves of the SAP 500. You're going to wait till the markets decline down some of the before you get out. And if you never time, you're not going to pay taxes. And this has been the return yet. The profit of a long trade. 95% of the long trades have been profitable. We'll give you an example. The border of August 4th. Let's see the market is down 10% tomorrow. So we're down 8% off the highs. It's a profitable trade. You're boarding August 4th. You're not going to be at 40% to be up 29%. Got it? Yep. And melted. So 18.5%. That is pretty good. You'll buff that I think is 20 or around 20%. But certainly out for most hedge funds. I mean, it doesn't have from the very drunken mill or George Soros, but it certainly outperforms 90% of hedge funds. Yep. And Milton, the fact that you're never on the when the market's going up, you're never outperforming by having a beta or exposure over 100%. So it means it's just it's just avoiding drawdowns. And then what that indicates to me, I think it must be a logical conclusion is that the worst periods for the S&P 500 are when it's already down more than 8% from size. It's amazing that you guys look at this. This is the year of the year returns based on the model. A yellow of the years, the SP were down. So if you get 2000, let's go back here. In 62, the SP is down 8%. The model gained 18%. The 66, the SP is down 10%. The model was flabbing the year. In 74, the SP is down 26. The model was up 20. Why? Because we're out during the bulk of the decline and we get in with in days as a low. And we catch those big five day moves that people talk are afraid of missing. You see 81 to mark down 50 or 15. The last was the 2022. The market was down 18% for 19%. We're up 3.6%. Again, this is total return, including the dividends on the S&P. And it's including the income you get from treasury bills. Now, okay. So this is just showing the year to year returns any question. Pick a year like you know, many. And you don't get the advanced signals. But you you just get this reading of the S&P 500 when to get in, when to get out. And the your model has been long the S&P throughout all of this turmoil since early April. And I think it's so important because it's not just the quality of the research. I mean, as people can tell, I really have a pretty encyclopedic read of the markets and market history. But it's also how accessible is it to the person using that research? Like for example, there are some great research providers out there or good research providers who the thing is so complicated that it's almost impossible for someone who's not trading the markets full-time to implement it. And actually there is a risk for very smart people who are very proficient and successful in their fields but are not experts in the markets to get things wrong. And so I think the simplicity of this model is extremely important. Oh yeah, people try to scale in and scale out. They never show here. Sure, you're either longer asm or teabills. Nothing wrong with being a teabill, right? And not being wrong with being in a bull market and getting out of your doubt, 8%, you have a tremendous trade, you're far better than most people. Now let me show you something else that's fascinating about this. People who are business or they're working, they don't want to trade all the time. We have an average of one trade, one round trade by and sell every one in the 40 years. Wow. 2016, there were no trades and that's 25 we sold on March 10th and we bought on April 4th. 2014, zero trade, 23, two trades you see. The worst we saw was in 2002 there are six trades. Worst, that's worse we saw you see. So this is also, you look at many zeros around, I mean, you get to get back and just go on your vacation. That's amazing. And people say, I want as many signals as possible and people can tell, you know, you have 20,000 probably more signals, but really what people should be paying for is the lack of signals, the lack of. Exactly. You know, you charge a quite hefty fee for your institutional investors, but you said that this is only $10 a month, so is that $180 a year? Yeah, this is our website. Institution is Miltonberg.com. Individuals in MiltonbergEdge.com. And what I did is just, you know, I showed you in 2004, excuse me, 2025, I just did select six dates, sample dates, if you're interested, to show you why it was so difficult to get into the market and why the model told you get in. So for example, October 21st, 1957, Secretary Trezzi Humphrey, he was a Secretary of the Treasury. He said we headed for depression as did former president Herbert Hoover, who was still alive in 1957. And they both were warning of a great depression again. What do you say to that? 1957. And comes Miltonberg's model and gets a buy signal. On October 21st, 1957, why was it buy signal? Simple stuff. To find the average volume of New York tax change was the greatest in, in 375 days over the past, a regime of high value. The SB 500 made at least 16 new, one year lows. The SB 500 closed at least a 60 day low. They speed the client at least 12% into today's low and today is the lowest low off its high. And net upside volume as a percentage of total volume, it's complicated, was less than than was below -0.45%, which means heavy downside volume. And he had a reverse breath thrust. The basis of the client is at the point zero. You know, the opposite of it is the client line or reverse the client line. And this signaled at the low, just whenever it was expecting a great depression, signal that low, market 55%, signal gain at the low in 62%, market gain 79%, signal gain at the low. Milton, sorry, I don't want to get lost in the, you know, I want to, I want to secure the weeds about the present day. So people go to those websites, we'll include those links in the description. Milton, let's talk about Bitcoin, gold and silver. Let's start starting with gold and silver. We've had such a powerful move over the past year, higher. And yet we just had an utter collapse exactly one week ago. A week ago, I've been receiving your research and I was impressed that either the the day of the high or the day after the high, you correct me. You actually put a short position in gold and silver by selling all spreads. What did you see in gold and silver? What have you made of the market action over the past week? Okay, it's so funny because look at the way pages are open through. You have your Nelson bunker hunt, you have your people. That was a less, less silver crisis. That is a less when you had, but silver was created to $50. Silver Thursday. This is back. Look at that. So guess what? The market declined. I want to show you this and this is March 24, 1980. Nelson bunker hunt 71% silver collapse. And the CPI was at 14.7% on that month, the highest in 23 years on March 24, 1980. And the market was down 17% and everyone's panicking and guess what? We got a bicycle. I'm not getting into it now. Just trust us. We got a bicycle. And that was a bicycle for the S&P, but I'm asking the point that making is the panic and silver generated a bicycle in the S&P. That's what I'm trying to put you in. Okay, let's get back to your question of gold and silver. I just, it's just interesting that you mentioned silver. Just for the charn about the Nelson bunker art silver panic. Let's talk about gold and silver. Okay, number one, I got to show you why we do a lot. I, you manage a lot, you know, people don't know this. I manage the largest gold fund in America in the 1980s. Largest gold stock fund. Yep. You saw that picture up there where it says, which will manage it the year. I manage the three top funds of the year and 87. One of them was a gold fund. And the reason was because while everyone thought gold will go count to the market, my argument was I saw a crash coming. I said gold is moving up along with stocks. It's gold moves up along the stocks and the stocks in the crash. No reason for gold to go counter. Gold to go counter was showing signs of going counter to the market. But if gold and stocks were going to see direction, there's no reason to believe that when stocks go down, gold will continue going up. So we, we lowered our cash position in our gold fund. We raised our cash position to more than 50%. That's how I had the greatest forming gold fund of 66% in the year. But let me show you by gold, my gold stuff. I have a last stuff on gold here. January 30th, writing gold and silver calls. We sold calls using this the high-star strike price. We had a quick, easy 4% for institutional clients if they follow us. They didn't have to sell these extra high-prec suited. But it was clear that the market could make a new high. So we sold the calls at the strike. What were we looking at? Let me show you what we're looking at. The number one, people see the gold is some sort of a magic instrument that's going to trade up along with the CPI. Okay, it trades up along the CPI. But often the price of gold exceeds the CPI. Such an extent that you get a major beer market right here. In 1980, this is the red is the ratio of gold to the CPI. United States cumulative CPI. See this spike here? Over the next 20 years, gold declined 86.27% relative to CPI. From 1980 to 2000, the CPI doubled and gold was down nearly more than 50%. The relative loss in gold was 86.27% versus the CPI. So whenever an app, all the tenants are telling you buy gold because inflation goes up, gold goes up. It's just not true if gold anticipated the inflation. In this case, gold got so ahead of inflation as inflation continued, gold went down relative to inflation. Same thing is happening now. This is only 3D731st, not through January. Gold relative to the CPI is way higher. It's ever been in history now. Say the CPI is fudged. Okay, but we all know with 100 ounce of gold, you can buy more now than you were able to buy five years ago. You can buy a yacht, you can buy whatever. I mean, which you couldn't do five years ago with gold. Gold has way exceeded the CPI. I just studied, you know, I managed to lodge the gold one. I had this out of memory, but I did studies of the YMR public in Germany when you had the so-called hyperinflation and say gold was the best asset to own. Yes, gold was the best asset to own because stocks on a inflation- adjusted basis lost 95% and gold on a inflation- adjusted basis gained 10%. Okay? If you take out the billions of inflation in YMR, if you held gold, not only did you not lose money, you made 10% over that three-up periods. But it's not a trillion percent if you after you adjust for inflation. Right, you didn't make hundreds of percent. So when people say gold is up 175% because of inflation, it makes no sense. Gold, even in the worst hyperinflation, did not outperform. And secondly, there was one correction during that- these people don't realize it. There's one correction in gold during that hyperinflation period. When gold corrected nearly 50%. While inflation was- while you saw the hyperinflation. So gold, listen, I look at gold as a commodity, but it's a stable commodity. It's a commodity that doesn't deteriorate. So it's a very good hedge against inflation over the long term. But it depends when you bought it. If you bought it right here, when it's low relative inflation, you're doing fine. But if you bought it now, if you bought it right here, up here when it's at an all-time high relative to QBO, you got to be crazy to think you're going to outperform inflation. Look at gold relative to oil. Gold is at its highest price relative to oil. That oil is a commodity and gold is a commodity. Oil is mined and gold is mined. Now oil has a benefit over gold. The benefit is oil that has been mined and has been drilled over the history has disappeared. It's been consumed. Now one ounce of gold that has been mined in the last 5,000 years has been consumed. It's all above ground. So the supply of gold actually increases to a far greater extent than the supply of most of the commodities. So gold actually has something negative relative to oil. Now you look historically, gold had a trading range relative to oil. Low sudden, this spike wasn't because gold did well. This spike because crude oil traded below zero to remember during the COVID crisis. But this spike is because gold way out of the form oil. Why, why, why? They're both commodities. They're both chidegates inflation and they go both move up with inflation. This was telling you that gold was very strange and you can't even compare it to this. This took place with oil collapse. Let's look at gold relative to, look at volume. We had record volume in gold futures. In record the volumes of ETFs. It records volume in spot gold. So record volumes. - Record volumes, Milton, but I don't believe records in-- - Open interest, not open. - Yes, open interest or assets under management in the ETF. So maybe in Asia, they were going crazy to make underprecious metals, but I don't think the retail speculation or Western America speculation in gold right of 15 years ago. - That's true, but I'm lucky that over the years, I've never built monogamy in open interest. I only built monogamy using volume. So volume may be the most important factor. - Fair, fair. - And I'll agree with you 100%. But right now the volume, so this is the reason to believe that this is heading towards the top, okay? This is my chart on gold and volume. Let's look at this. This is gold relative to soybeans. Now soybeans as a commodity, like you buy soybean products in the supermarket, so many thing I made of soybeans. And it moves up with inflation. All of a sudden gold relative to soybeans. Why, why, why? For this period of 20 years gold and soybeans were oscillating, if you had inflation then gold didn't take off. If gold takes off soybeans should also take off. Why should gold real in why my Germany, the price of gold when upside down price of soybeans go up? So let's face, I mean, could you soybeans as a hedge? You can't buy a warehouse of soybeans, but the point I'm making is that gold has out to form commodities, it's out to form a CPI. It actually makes no sense to think, look at gold relative to the typical home in America. CPI, the existing, and any of our medium sales prices is existing. It was way higher here in 1980 I admit, but now it's a second highest in history. No reason to think gold's gonna really take off from here, it already took off. And my most important chart is this one. This is gold, this is a proprietary chart, which you had created, not gold in dollars, but gold in GDP weighted in all major currencies of the world. It's in Australian currency, US, Canada, and Great Britain, Europe, Japan, Switzerland, China, Russia, India, Brazil, which are the Greeks. Gold reals to all currencies surge. Now, you take a little bit, I used to work with at Oppenheimer, you had a guy named, my name, I think his name was Jack Levy, who ran the companies, he's a brilliant analyst. And he says, what he does, he takes his grandson, Johnny, and he shows him a chart. Okay, and he says, Johnny, do you think this is going up with this going down? And he says it's going up, it's bullish going down, it's bearish. I say tell someone who's a little more in touch than Johnny, does this look like we're at the beginning of a move? And we're like, we're at the end of a move. Just a little bit, look at charts, you know what I mean? Does this look like at the beginning of a move? More like the end of a move, look at this big move. This looks like it's a trading range, but this could be the beginning of a breakout, this could be a breakout, but does this look like the beginning of a move? Of course not. Well, Milton, I've got to ask you, don't you have bull markets in precious metals that last a very long time? 1971 to 1980 and then 2000 to 2012. Let me tell you, listen to this. From 2000 to 2012, gold drill to the CPI client, 85%. Gold is self decline, more than 50%. It came off 50% decline, right? So you had a bull market, this is gold, this is spot gold. It was fixed, so the price is false to 1970, got it? So the first rally was just catching up for the fact that the price of gold was falsified, it was fixed by the government. It was $35,000 an hour through Goddard's and what it's true worth was. So the first rally was really a just catch up. The next rally was a speculative rally. It picked 20 years. This rally, I mean, I say this gold rally we had started in 2000, it's 25 years old. We had a pick up or we were pulled back, but in reality, if you start in 2000 to now, you're way out to form his gold rail to CPI in 2000. - Did you think we have a multi decade bear market in gold, Milton? - I think it's likely, I think it's likely that relative inflation will have a multi year bear market in gold. I think I wrote it up to my clients. It will likely it is. Likely, who it is, you'll see a multi decade. Let's just say a one decade bear market in gold is enough to say, but I think it could be a multi decade because gold is as a great extreme that it's ever been relative to commodities. And gold is just a commodity. And there's no reason to believe that gold will make you real money relative to commodities, relative to inflation. It, listen, if gold does well over the long term, let's put this way, if in the year, zero AD, you have an ounce of gold, and it was worth say $10 an ounce at the time, okay? And it gained 5% per annum until today. You know, it'd be worth it worth more than the money supply of every country in the world. Gold doesn't compound. Gold holds value. And for some reason, I don't know why people have been torched and people have convinced that gold compounds and makes money. Gold does not an asset that makes money. As Warren Buffett used to say, you buy stock like Apple generates little babies. It's called earnings. You buy Apple and you gave it a guy who was little babies. And the babies have babies. And the baby's Apple expenditure and the other guy's stock. Yeah, yeah, gold. And also Milton, I will say, you know, I try to be neither a gold bug or an anti-gold bug. But when people say, well, gold from 1971 did this. They're starting from a point where it was just going to explode because it had been artificially depressed because of the gold standard. So, you know, that's what it is. And also, I think from 1981 to 2000, there was a 19 year bear market in gold. So no one is guaranteed to make money in precious metals even on a 20 year time horizon. Try to even the why more republic had this boom and gold. If you think about it, it's only because of the basement of the currency. The United States didn't have a boom and gold during that period. It's the end. So it's, yeah. Really, gold doesn't really make you money of a long term. Now, it's going to make you money sometimes. Although, Milton, I will say, and this, you're showing this chart of gold priced in a basket of global currencies. Almost every currency, maybe other than the Swiss Frank, has been weakening against the dollar. So in many countries, the precious bull market in gold and ant silver is even more extreme. So like in India, like the price of gold, price in Indian rupees has just been on a 50 year bull market that is never ended. So I mean, that I think a lot of people around the world are very bullish on gold. Milton-- But the bull share is this because it ultimately retains its value, ultimately. But if you buy it at the right time, I mean, I remember in 1979, it's maybe for your bond. But in 1979, at the peak in Silver, it was an investor that I grew that had really, his fortune was all in Silver. And you know, one year before the high in Silver, yeah. And then he saw, he saw Silver's peak in your bark to $40,000. Somebody got to sell, he got to sell. He said, I would sell, but where would I put my money? You understand? He was so convinced that you can't have money in paper assets. You understand? The SEP was at like 10 times earnings and the treasury's reeling. No, I don't know. I'll put that. So Milton, you're looking at long-term charts in gold. And you're basically saying it's overvalued, even though I know you're not a valuation guy. In terms of the more short-term technicals in gold-- Oh, true term. --that classic signs of a client next top. It's face, you had the accelerating gains. You had gaps in the-- I don't know if you have the chart here-- gaps in the GLD and SOV, gaps to the upside. I know he's moving average, but it's ratio to its-- it's a totally moving average. It was also an extreme kind of extreme you see in speculative stocks at peak. So in these mean stocks, same kind of extreme. And that's signs of a top and signs of a bottom. The fact that I mean, but I didn't bear as to tell my clients to get out of gold because some of the titans of Wall Street were long gold at the top, which you mean you, OK? Well, they probably made a lot of money. Let's be real. I would-- Yeah, yeah. Yeah, make the right-- Yeah, make the right money. Make it the right time. I don't want to say, but one of my-- one of my former clients of mine, for whatever reason that a client anymore, I don't get into it, a good reason, not a bad reason, got into the gold market way, way early, way, way early. He's more than 50% in gold throughout this bull market. So he can handle this 12% gold back, believe me. But in turn, at the public, it was very difficult on the public, you know? Very difficult. I didn't go, but I just-- Yeah, I'm going to be-- --with no gold calls. Right here, I wrote gold calls. The day is-- the top was the previous day, it's 29th. Yeah. You know, we're not going to get back to the high. So I wrote very short-term gold calls to total 4%, to make it 4% in a month. So listen, for all I know, I'm going to be cursed and gold be up $500 tomorrow. But we're-- I think the average cost is $6,000, $4. And now, it's the training in pennies, 30 cents, 20 cents. Yeah, I would be shocked if those calls don't expire worthless. So what motivated you to short gold the day after? And also, Milton, can you tell us, when you wrote that shorting gold and silver, was it how much into the crash? Was it? Was it right at the end of the year? It was 915 and the more we said, invest at-- we gave it an exact time to invest. Yeah, we should. I said 945. We used the-- the maybe 10-bitiness of 945. We're going to scale it. Because we knew this. We picked the price of time, and that's the price we used. But I'm showing you here is this is the peak on gold under the 28th. Did I tell you about silver refiners? Did a little fundamental work. Silver refiners are silver-well with incoming inventory. They have stopped accepting additional scrap metal. This suggests that a fundamental level current price of pulling significant lose supply into the market. At the 2011 silver peak, when I worked for hedge fund, for fines were running three eight hours shifts a day, and still did not need to turn suppliers away. Whereas today, conditions imply an even greater supply response to these price levels. There are less point of the out that the high price of silver today on a real basis is greater than the high price in 2011, because the refiners are turning away supply, which means to say there's such an overwhelming amount of supply. Over 90-- this is on January 29th. We saw the market. rock and rally, this amount and what did it get this high? So we suggested shorting beginning about 11 o'clock in the day and shorting down. So you're sure that gold at about 5,400 incredible move, incredible move. Okay, you got it. Anyway, that's the story. So Bitcoin Bitcoin. I'm sorry, but in terms of technical analysis, you said gold relative to its history relative to CPI is overvalued. And technically you had all the signs of a climax of high volume, but was that it? Climax peak at gaps into the high, you had record volume into the high, you had people, you had the record volume in the most retail oriented types of investments. You know, the ETFs, the gold bullion dealers who sell to the public, you had record volume on the retail side buying and the natural sellers, people already own gold or own gold scrap or own silver scrap, where sellers was drawing supply. So on a technical basis, it was a peak on a fundamental basis of the parabolic rise with exponential greater, greater increases on gaps. That's all you need to see. You can just look at the, you know, stocks that have picked historically, stocks that have picked on parabolic rises. Should exactly the same same same idea. Gold was just a very high cap stock that was speaking. And are you still bearish on gold and silver? What do you think? What do you see right now? I'm bearish in gold and silver. Yes. A long term decline. Although you listen, you know, markets can surprise you. If it surprises us, we won't be surprised because we'll see it in the data. I don't think I make no rise. You know, people will follow other techniques, say that we've seen pullbacks before to this extent that are followed by new highs. I mean, you've seen a Bitcoin on the past gold gold is a far deeper market and it's highly unlikely. After this type of decline, if this type of panic buying, that you'll see new highs, highly unlikely. I tell you to do see new highs. You're like, oh, you remind me of my research. There's only one time in history when gold made a rounding top. Khmattis in general makes spike tops. Gold always makes the spike top as the silver. The only time made a rounding top, which means it made a high and then tested the high at a slightly higher level was in 2011. I think it's final high on September and it made its first time in July. And the September high was slightly above slightly above the high in July. So that's called more of a rounding top. Generally, the type of top we threw on gold is the type of top is seen in Khmattis and particularly see the type of type in gold. And I'm sorry. I've been a giant nerd on silver. So I got to ask you a few questions. So you've been experiencing the precious metals markets for, you know, before I was born. So silver, you know, copper is almost all used for industry for almost everything, you know, wiring, using vehicles, etc. Gold is mostly used almost all as a precious metal to store it in a vault or as jewelry, obviously gold has some industrial uses. Silver is interesting because a lot of people have silver bars. It's for saving. It has a monetary thing in history. It was used as monetary, you know, it's in the Bible. But then there was a very vicious demonetization of silver of governments and central banks selling silver. So basically, it's silver is not money anymore. But some people do do see it as a precious metal. And it rallies alongside gold often and sells off alongside gold just with more volatility, higher beta. But then it also silver is a giant industrial metal that historically was used for photography in the 60s and 70s and it was used a lot for electronics. And in particular, more recently, it's been used a lot for solar panels, which is, you know, technology of the future. Let's be honest. And there's a record shortage of silver for the past five years. And basically, above ground stockpiles have had to be depleted in order to meet this shortage and Milton. And I'm just setting the stage. Obviously, I know you know this. But for the bull market of silver from 2000 to 2012 or 2000, yeah, around there. For the first half of it, it had a physical deficit, like there was a shortage of silver. But for the second half, and once they're stopped being a shortage, by the way, Warren Buffett sold. And Silver, but he sold once the fundamentals told him to sell. But from like 2006 to 2011, there was a surplus of silver. So it was just incredibly, incredibly speculative asset. And everyone was just getting a long silver. It's a long silver. So to me, Milton, you know, I have been long silver in various ways from like, you know, precious metal royalty companies and stuff. But to me, there seems like an obvious deficit. But should I respect the technicals and should I accept that silver is going to be in a bare market, even though I'm looking at and I'm seeing a shortage? There's a lot of silver. It's only been mined for millennium, just like gold has been mined. Now, of course, not all silver remains above ground, like all gold remains above ground. But a lot of silver remains above ground in various ways. Silverware, for example. And I just, where I see it, people are nitpicking by saying it is a shortage of supply. Where I see it is, is pink to refineries, is a record supply. So I would, I don't necessarily believe the fundamental, I do know, back in 1980, when silver was picking, you had the same kind of stories as a short of that. Mainly with digital photography, they claimed. But it is not enough gold. So I've heard these stories before I'd rather stick with the technicals. And the technicals are telling you that we saw an important peak at the end of January, February, whether or not we make a higher peak in the near future as anyone's guess. But I don't think we'll make it very, very soon. I don't think it's just a little hiccup, which we go much higher. And then work about the, sorry, that work about the, um, smelting about how all the, silver smelters are not accepting silver. Is that, is that in the news, you're reading reports or you're, you're on the ground analysis. What, where is you getting that? You got it from two places, okay? I sold my personal Goldstock pile on Thursday, the day of the peak, okay? I won't, so a friend of mine is the largest smelter in the, in New York. I don't know what I mentioned his name, but you know, you legend in the business, okay? So a lot of the information that comes from him and a lot of the information comes from, uh, from just reading. Yeah. I just, I just know that, uh, this is not a question you talked to any smelter. I, back in 2011, I was working for a hedge fund that had actually the largest position of golden silver of any hedge fund in, in the world. Second, they were second to Sprat Skull Fund. And they, uh, and I did a lot of research and I remember speaking to, uh, through our finals in Texas, telling me, oh, we, we've run in 20,000, day three hour shifts. And this rally and still will never end, of course, as a shortage. And I, I said to myself, if they're running three hour shifts, some supply coming, they're definitely no shortage. And it's just the opposite. People looking at, it depends how you look at things. Most people are saying, wow, the, the smelters can't smell. That must be a shortage because not able to come, come up and supply. But it's telling you there's underlying supply looking to smell. See that, they, it depends how you look at it. We shall be. So far the market has spoken. The market so far told us it was a speculative fever into the peak, just like you've seen in, in, in stocks like Cisco, they're a great company. So even Amazon into 19, until the 2000 Amazon, the client 19% has greater company it is. So as great as Golden Silver might be, you have speculative move and had all signs of a top. And the, the, the, the, the client wants to start and you're going to get bounces, but I think ultimately you should go down for a while. And you know, I don't like to project things could change. If things change, we'll, we'll act upon it. Hopefully we act upon the change. We don't only get caught in anyone, anyone's position. But I don't, I think that was a very stark pick and gold and it, it wasn't surprised, didn't surprise me. One of my clients, when I put that position out of selling gun, I put a negative, a big piece out on gold before the peak and they, they sent me all this kind of information, you know, Golden Silver, the shortages and all the shortage. The shortage, the shortage, Milton, you know about the shortage. That's a policy and all this kind of stuff, you know, doesn't, you know, I stick with the market. But you want to talk about Bitcoin? Yeah, yeah. So, okay. So you're bare on gold, bare on silver as well in the near term. Thank you for saying that. Tell us about Bitcoin, which it's selling off very viciously. It's very tough. Very big move. Very big up move today, as you know, right? After a huge down move, yes. So, so Milton, so, you know, for, for our audience, Bitcoin peaked at over 120,000 in October of 2025 last year and it now it's trading very, very poorly and it bought it was as low as 63 or 64,000, you know, in early February, but today, February 6, it's rallied back up to 70,000. Your thoughts? I thought first of all, I don't like to talk about cycle dates because most people, where the retail investments or institutional investors are not familiar with cycle dates. The great investors, I can't mention names, but the world's top investors, not a war in buffers or toilet fund, the maintenance. But the name that people know about, many of them are my clients. I'm very familiar with esoteric cyclic work. And I'm not talking about the see-inality and I'm not talking about, you know, early, you know, which months are strong, which months are weak. I'm talking about other cycles, natural cycles. Anyway, I don't know if you're familiar with the great analyst, Paul Montgomery, Paul Montgomery Montgomery. He's now is about 40 years in Wall Street until the roughly, until about maybe 2000, 2000, 10 or so. And he published, he did a lot of cycle work and he, here's my mentor and essentially, he came to cycles. So we have a cycle we're going back, going up to the year, to the year, 2100. And he had October 6th of the cycle date. He also had February 3rd of cycle date, okay. So Bitcoin, now you said 2100, you mean 2180 years? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Cycles, okay. So listen, so, so the way cycles work is people confused when, they, what was the cycle? They think every cycle is going to affect every market. It's not true. A cycle will affect the market if the market is prone for it turns. cycle dates predict turning points. They don't predict accelerations or deceleration. They predict turning points to the market. And the cycles work along with, let's say, human psychology and human emotional sentiment. If you have a market that's been peaking with a lot of sentiment, where your market's in declining, a lot of negative sentiment, with a lot of headline news about it, and it occurs in a cycle date, you have a greater than random probability that the market's going to peak, okay? Or go to the bottom. Bitcoins and gold are the two assets that work best in cycle dates. Gold because all gold has never been mind in the world as above ground. And the supply increases every year. So it's different in all the commodities. And basically moves on sentiment. It doesn't move on supply and demand fundamentals because supply is there, if millennia and the demand just changes based on sentiment. So cycle effect gold very, very, very well. And so the cycle effect Bitcoin, because there's no value to Bitcoin at all. We get to have a moment. We're going to share with you when you're readers and you're viewers things that they've never heard about Bitcoin, which is that you probably see it on one of the next three pages. But in any event, Bitcoin did pick on a cycle date October 6th. And it made a crash low into February 3rd to cycle date. Three thought that might be a final lower total clients. It might be a final however I said. If that is the final low, basically it's testing the low we saw in April of 2024. See this is able to 2024. This is February 3rd. So my view when I market tests the low, sometimes it's the client stops right before the low. It doesn't quite quite hit the low. But sometimes it declines up to three and three quarter percent below the prior low. So I said, if the 71,651.33 level holds past today's close, I would recommend Bitcoin bulls to increase exposure using the air of the low as a stop. In other words, I told my clients, I'm not a bull on Bitcoin. OK, I think Bitcoin, you'll see in a minute, I think that Bitcoin. But I don't recommend people go along with Bitcoin because it makes no sense to me, but I've clients who are big in Bitcoin. I told them you should consider buying around here, but only if this low holds because then it would be considered a test of this low. And it didn't hold. It didn't hold. So that's the next page. The low failed. This is the low. The low, the test would have been 71,000 in change. It got to 61,000. So the low failed. I told my clients, if you're considering buying Bitcoin, don't buy it because the low failed and anything could happen. Of course, maybe you have a panic loan that's going to turn up. We'll see that later on. Now, what exactly is Bitcoin? I've read a lot about Bitcoin. Of course, I never get my money around. But I still don't get my money around. I finally found out. I was never booked written about it by C, the intellect, the academics also understand Bitcoin. This is it. The origin of Bitcoin is the RAI stone on the Apple and are you familiar with this? From you. Yeah. OK. These massive circular disks made of lines that have been used as a form of money on the Apple and for centuries. This is in the books about Bitcoin. I promise you. I read a number of books about Bitcoin. They all come up with the Apple and as a justification for why Bitcoin is money. And the story is nothing short of fast. And from the oranges, it's the currency used for trade and social status during significance in the Apple and its culture. The raised stones have truly shaped the sides. OK, let's continue. Researchers who are university of Oregon specifically missed a Fitzpatrick, I hope you're listening to this. So Mr. McKin. Anthropologist Scott Fitzpatrick and finance professor Steven McKin are key figures who have compared Bitcoin to the ancient RAI stone of the Apple. In their paper, banking on stone money ancient ancestors to Bitcoin, published in a journal of economic anthropology, they are going to Bitcoin similar to these stones because both are highly value, rarely moved, like Bitcoin's ledger, ownership of heavy areas stone just transferred through public verbal agreements rather than physical movement. A formal distributed ledger, anyway, the point is there were these big stones that were difficult to move. And people would buy and sell things and use a stone to remind themselves of the transactions. There were thousands of transactions based on one stone. And this little island of the app, people remembered exactly which stone represented which transaction. So instead of having money, they just go to this stone and remind themselves that Mr. Yappay, a soldier's daughter, to Mr. Yapp being married, or Mr. Yappay, sold his boat to Mr. Yapp C and they'd look at the stone and they'd remind themselves and have a record of what transactions took place. This is the closest and the most logical explanation I've ever seen a Bitcoin. But other than that, Bitcoin makes absolutely no sense. There's no other currency in the world that's compared to Bitcoin. Gold has intrinsic value, gold is used in jewelry, gold is beautiful. People give gold to the girlfriends. People give gold to the wives. People give gold transfer gold to the next generation because of the value, because of the beauty. Gold has been used for years as money, so too silver, so too bicycles. There were times and bicycles used money during wars. My mother told me candles were used as money. They were ruled were too. But all these things have intrinsic value. There's something you can do with it. In private cigarettes, cigarettes are used as currency. For cigarettes, cigarettes are used as currency. Exactly. What's the trade secretary's name? Scott Besson. Scott Besson told me about bicycles. When I used to work with him at Dr. O'Kamilly, he said, yeah, he remembers when bicycles used as currency in his readings. I mean, he's an expert in all these things. I mean, he's a monitor. It's fine. Green, and they don't want me to know. But let's continue. So the abstones were different. The abson was in money. It was just a re-recording transactions. And it was a small little town, a small little island, where you look at it and you remind yourself of the transaction. It was nothing to do with money. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value at all. At all, at all, at all, at all. You can't say it's cheap when it's at $60,000. You can't say it's cheap when it's at $10,000. You can't say it's expensive when it's at $10,000,000. Because there's no way of measuring its value. There isn't a way of measuring its value on the way up. There's nothing in terms of overvaluation to prevent it from going up way more than you imagine. And on the downside, there's no valuation. There's no value. There's no reason. Money is a fallacy. Not going to show me whatever the name is, who made a Bitcoin. He doesn't say what money is. Money isn't simply because you have to pay-- you have to pay the cost of money to mine it. Because I gave the example before Bitcoin even existed when I ran a gold fund in 1980, before a gold-- people said gold is valuable because it's rare. It's value, of course, it's expensive to mine it. I said, well, one of you took 1,000 used paper cups and buried it on the ground and protected it with nuclear arms. And it would be very expensive to mine it. Would that give it any value? But there are other paper cups that you could easily make. No, no, no, no. The paper cups that are on the ground. Yeah, but-- I want each paper cup with a way that no one knows. You can't duplicate. You can't counterfeit it. Would anyone in the right mind think that's money? No. Milton, OK. Actually, it's basically money. Gold is money because people think it's money. Gold is only money because it is money. Now, the dollar isn't money. So Milton Friedman said the dollar is a fiction. But Milton Friedman is a fiction. The reason the dollar is money, of course, it's backed by guns. It's backed by prison cells. If the government wants you to pay taxes and dollar is all paid, you go to jail. So it's not money because it's intrinsically money. It's money because it's backed by the forces of the US government. So to other money, now money is not backed by forces of the government. Hyperinflates it disappears. So the point being is a fallacy. Bitcoin is false. In no sense, the Bitcoin. And it simply trades as a specular uncle and asset. And a speculative item that absolutely makes no sense. When people say Bitcoin is cheap, it's $60,000. Cheap relative to what? But you're expensive, $10 million. Relative to the point, I'll tell you relative. If somebody would take his $60,000, and instead of buying a Bitcoin, it'd buy a Tesla. At least that's something he could drive. Yeah, Milton, I'll tell you what. When people say Bitcoin's cheap, I'll tell you what they mean. Milton, over the past year, gold has doubled. Silver has tripled. And the S&P is up 40%. And in the meantime, Bitcoin is down. So therefore, Bitcoin must be cheap. That's what they mean. OK. Well, again, when it's your starting point, I, a relative of mine, a genius, when it comes to computers and stuff, he bought Bitcoin at $0.4. That's pretty good. He sold it at $0.8, and he did his best room, OK? So, in other words, guess what? He didn't make a mistake. It was worthless at $0.4, and it was worthless at $0.8. He just was just a good trade. If you buy Bitcoin, you sell on a profit of the good trade. If you're like Michael Saley, by Bitcoin, it's $76,000. And now it's $60,000 so far, it's a poor trade. If it goes up, it's a good trade. Not because it made any sense. Because there are other people who are willing to pay more for the value of the Bitcoin. Absolutely. And we're able to pay for the value of Bitcoin. And here I challenge the beers, I challenge the bulls, and I challenge anyone out there to explain to me the value of Bitcoin other than the fact that it's something to do with these RBI stones. I got the Bitcoin bulls. I'll do them a solid on their behalf, which is Milton. I told you I was into the mineral royalty business and looking at those businesses. So I said, what are the minds that last the longest? So silver mines only last eight years, gold mines only last 15 years on average. Copper mines could last a lot longer. Interestingly, rare earth mines actually last like 50 or 100 years, potash mine last, oh, maybe 100 years, limestone mines is one of the most common materials in the world. There are limestone mines that last hundreds of years, 500 years. And maybe my Gemini, Google Gemini, large lime and small does just making this up for me. I don't know. But you told me that there are some mines from the Roman Empire that are still mining lime stone. So you said that these things are made out of limestone. It's the most common one of the most common things in the world. Bitcoin is very scarce, artificially scarce, but it's scarce and therefore people say it must have value. So that is a difference between those limestone stones and Bitcoin. Yeah, but the license was scarce because they had to have a hole in it, you see, they had to have a hole in it. And it was scarce because they had it poured it from another island. The Dwayne's stones couldn't be mined in this island. It was a very small world in those days. And because, but I'm saying the main value was because the people who knew exactly who the other side of transaction was unlike Bitcoin, where you don't know the other side of the transaction is a different concept, but, but guess what limestone is your saying limestone is nothing to the Bitcoin or you're going to get it right now. Yeah, I'm going to get you. I'm not saying, but I'm against the using wine so that they come saying when you study the research, the best thing you come up with is the RBI stones in that island. Rareity is nothing. Listen, I have a sock. I have a sock with the hole that right now on my face, right? It's very rare, but it's valueless. It's only one in the world. What would give it value? And you can't duplicate it. You see, I'm saying it makes no sense. There's no logical thing to say that it's something scarce and of course might to mind it. If someone is a little angry, he has to fly to Florida to get my sock. Do I give it any value? Absolutely not. It's a fallacy. The whole thing is a fallacy. So as you said, if it goes to zero, it goes to $10 a Bitcoin, that's its value because that's what people pay for it. It goes to 10 million. That's its value because that's people pay for it. But everything else in the world has a value except for the dollar, but the dollar's value is what the government places on it through their guns and through their army and through the police force. Milton, you're making fundamental arguments and the fact that Bitcoin doesn't have a fundamental argument. Basically, I understand your argument, but when you look at the technicals, what do you see? Because that really is kind of all Bitcoin has this. No technicals. No, there's no advanced decline line. There's no, there's no, no, a natural end user. There's no. It's one thing is not it's not like gold, the way where you were, where it has some industrial uses. There's nothing to measure the fundamental or technically, I mean, it's got a lot of work is not. You look at volume, you can move the averages, but you know what I look for in stocks technically. It's far more robust than what I want to look at. And you want to look at in gold is far greater because at least gold has some some uses and some supply demands factors other than the fact that it scares. Yes, okay, okay, you'll you'll be believing Bitcoin. And listen, everyone's been right in the sense of Bitcoin coming up in value. I don't believe much in what Benjamin Graham says either about value of that's been but he, he, he, he, Benjamin missed every bull market he was alive for because he nothing was cheap enough in between me and you know, but and even Warren Buffett would have missed many bull markets had it not been for for manager who told him to buy stock good companies don't just buy cheap companies. And and and and Buffett we know how big it's going to be, but he says $300 billion watches just waiting waiting for stocks to get cheap ultimately made turnout great. We don't know we certainly missed them upside to the average which is a fan people I deal with don't miss the upside because stocks aren't cheap. They don't care whether the checks are cheaper not the care for other things. What I was trying to get to about Bitcoin is that I don't see any case that can be made in history for Bitcoin and people were stretching to compare to the RBI stones and I say we disagree are you the far better form of money than Bitcoin. I don't see anything about Bitcoin like you the monetary value and what people the reason of stocks drop in value isn't because people are buying it. I say Apple has little baby apples and and and and the video has little baby the videos right and Walmart little baby Walmart's but Bitcoin has no little baby bitcoins. So how are you going to measure it and there's no uses how you're going to measure it. I mean you can argue if we had to tomorrow it's my view and people say I'm oh so why is the Benjamin Graham because Benjamin Graham in his book. The screen analysis he says people think it's successful investment is one that went up in price and they think an unsuccessful speculation is an asset that went down on price. That's not the case that's the other criteria that measures whether something is an investment or something. Yeah but yeah it's not quite the fundamental reason. And all these little widows North ends the people putting Bitcoin and all these institutions that are out of the five to Bitcoin absolutely makes no sense other than the fact that they sort going up in value but no one can sit in front of me and give me a logical reason for Bitcoin to be a valuable asset. No one not you not the only one I hadn't at least maybe I'm stubborn but I just don't see it. Yeah but you're talking fundamentals so technically you don't have any analysis of Bitcoin. Technically has no value technical analysis just interprets value but it doesn't give you value Bitcoin gold has value but Bitcoin has no value the fact that it has a price doesn't mean has a value. Let's move on let's return where we started which is the stock market you had some overwhelming buy signals in April of 2025 you had one more buy signal in the summer you didn't really believe in you got a sell signal that may be anxious go short on your model portfolio on December 11th or December early December and then you you saw another signal that you didn't like a sell signal in January. What's your positioning now and Milton I might say based on you know how you started saying oh I still want another 5% 6% more in the SP based off the huge starting gun you know bomb that was August sorry sorry that that was April based on that you know I'm familiar with just how short your model assets portfolio is like. I'm not hiding it I'm long about 5% Argentina we got into at the lowest also the classic bottom in Argentina you're interested you'll see right Milton but your your short positions in other assets are playing time for you. 110% short various short the mid caps and short Russell I'm short the cues and I'm short the spice and and semiconductors right. Yeah I know just when short semiconductors the day after that top exactly yes yes yes so why is your position so bearish if you only have you know a few cell signals or what am I missing. I'm sure because my VXN cell signal back in December 11th has now had the market follow through all follow through so far have been signed a speculative top. Yeah I'll yeah I'll top of the Russell you have the fact that the Russell is moving up without the SP got 100. Yeah the maximum gains is December 11th was 1.12% of the S&P you had the fact that the NAS that wasn't able to make a high above its December December 29th. Yeah a lot of factors telling you the market's topping that's why I'm short why I'm 100% short because I don't I'm not I don't go in increments I'm short I'll be short from one I'll get out I told you this morning I consider my shorts I as well I wrote the report I wrote based on the various indicators we saw. Sometimes in the past we generate the exact bottom especially after shorts. Sharks spike decline I never took place in the client of my 2% or 3% of the S&P but you know maybe tomorrow Monday I'll change my mind by see follow through it or maybe my indicators will come up even more by signals than the one I saw at yesterday's close. You know we're flexible but actually this morning when I wrote my report initially I titled report covering shorts that's the issue one and then I said then I ended a chain we're not ready to cover our shorts that was as I wrote the report and went through the data I see I see reasons to cover the shorts and it's but not enough to cover my shorts. But this is not a long term call I said I could see a depression you never know what's going to you never know what's going to get you to bear market until takes place when people predict a crash ahead very rarely did they know why it's going to crash if that correct most of them are correct even even you list your bear market generally don't know what's causing the bear market until until the bear market takes place or even a bull market no you don't really know what's going to what what's going to publish the market anticipates it and you don't really know what's what's going to cause it. But no we're short that we may be long on Monday but the point I want to really make is that for the real people out the millions of people out there where IRAs and 401 for 401k plans and they want to invest in the long term they want to save forget about all this stuff just doesn't help anybody just drives you crazy bull market bear market 80 lines and seasonality broadening or Russell 2000 moving which is a bullish sign. Just know the espn if we remain a capitalist country which we hope we do when we were in there's been many many times in the past where it looked like socials and we'll take over like during the great depression if we made a capitalist country over long term the espn 100 should gain in price and real terms and if you're into the bulk of bull markets and your treasure builds during the bulk of bear market was very well and until until I'm not a young man until less September I didn't really complete models and allow me and confidence to say being the stock be the espn of heart for the bull market. Be the espn of heart for the bulk of the time hold on be long during bull markets don't worry about all these puns that you are telling you is a crash shadow recession head correction head wait for the correction to start wait for the crash to be done 8% based on the model and then when you out get to the tables you can sleep when you're in the tables tables are not the best investment but certainly safest investment and then when the time comes to buy the market you don't have to guess because our models I say in April 4th April 9th you had we showed 57 singles. From April from the month of April itself I think of a total of 88 signals published we have many sales that are unpublished they published meaning it's your mic computers so markets give you rear signals at turning points we have we believe we've been able to pinpoint them in the stock market and we believe as long as you can get into the market early in a bull market as long you can get out early in a bear locker you'll do very very well and that's what our models are showing and our clients get a new ladder twice a month telling them what we're up to. very little data, not the kind of data we were talking about here. They just get what the latest signal was, occasionally we'll give a historical signal, you know, what signal in 1974, or what signal in 1990, or what signal in the 2000, make sure historical signals are run into the model. But the model is only built on one signal, the first signal of the series. I do not disclose to the retail clients the thousands of miles we have. That goes for the institutional clients, the totally different ballgame. Plus, the institutional clients, I recommend the sectors, I recommend the pressure metals, I recommend the low and short leverage and clients is simpler. Either 100% in the stock market, based on the capitalist system in the United States, or your 100% in treasure builds, because there's a correction or a bear market that you want to be out of. Very, very simple. Absolutely. Milton, you know, so yes, generally, right, I mean, American companies have a much higher profit margin, return on equity, and capitalism is generally good for stock markets. I mean, look at China, but I will say Milton, in fundamentals, like there is a lot of counterpoints, like in Brazil, when the left wing guy was in charge in the very early 2000s, Brazilian stock market did really well because there was a bull market and emerging markets and oil. So there's always a counter example. I want to ask you Milton about your, yeah, exactly what you show. The individual needs. You should have only position. It's a long-lake portfolio. It's institutions get every day a long-lake portfolio. Our turnover average is 75% to year. You know, we don't even have a 100% turnover. Okay, we try to own stocks for at least a year. We buy stocks strictly on technical, but however I do try to make sure that companies don't have any balance issues. I don't want to get into bankruptcy. We fortunately had a great return. This start in 2016 January 1st. Our mind is not total return. Just price action of 542% versus 236. Since since 1919, it's up 467 versus 174%. Since since 2022 151 versus 44. Since 2023 191 versus 79. Last year, last year, we're up 53 versus 17% and this year we're up 7.56%. This is through February 4th versus the SP of 0.5. And how do we do it? We don't do a lot of trading. We do it based on technical analysis. Just to be honest, I learned a lot of what I know about technical analysis from William O'Neill's. People are very familiar with William O'Neill's work. But he would stress growth stocks. And we use his pattern analysis for cyclical stocks as well as for undervalued stocks or beaten down stocks. We try to get early in the turn. So to give you an example of what we own now, which is sort of portfolio. This is the portfolio where we're now. We own Argentina as an ETF. We have a 4.9, we have 36% in Argentina. We have a number of fine stocks. The fine stocks are showing greater potential. Technically, then the US stocks we have a tour, which is a Chinese, not many people would have heard of this stock. It's a Chinese, I guess it's like Trivia Advisor or TravelAsc. I'm not sure exactly what they do fundamentally, but they're for people going on trips. Chinese people like to travel. This is their travel company. Alibaba, Brookshear, we have really, I think it's a great management. There's a technical reason I bought it. But really I bought it because I think it's sort of a cash asset. I'm still nervous about the market long turn. I'd rather have 4.6% in the bookship because I think in the beer market it would hold up a little better. Constellation energy we spoke about. Two, you know, a few of my advice. Incredible pick, incredible pick. I don't know why I own it, but it's a chart that was great. Turned it out, it's an AI stock. We sold half the position already. The stock would over, we had it over five percent position and we sold half of it. And I see one of your biggest position is C gate, which is data storage. So I'm going to show you some charts that we have Shinnan, Korean, let me show you some purchases. So these are recent purchases. We own Gverno, we bought it last year. We bought it right here at this breakout. And by the way, Milton, I know you don't focus on fundamentals, but in the fundamentals, you know, GE was this business that had issues for so many, so many years, but now they spun out this business and they basically have. The financial gas turbines and there's a giant shortage of gas turbines. If you look at earnings by look earnings, I look at earnings on a technical basis, not a fundamental basis. I don't really care what brought there. Anyway, we bought it back here where the hour is. We bought, it's just, it's recently Shinnan financial group, which is a Korean stock. Look at the new high, today's chart made a new high today. Look at that one, you say. So this is doing very well for us. Again, it had very low p of nine, it was actually a p of seven, we bought it and you have a stream of good earnings. But you know, you had this kind of big up move, foundation of breakout. And looking for stocks that are in the American stocks, didn't show these kind of chart patterns. Cape, another Korean company, we bought right here. It made a new high a few days ago. Now it's okay. And last one is Seeky. You know, my guy works at me, a very brilliant guy works at me. He's been in the business quite a long time. He used to be a trader for himself and now he works with me. And I was thinking he was yelling, "No, don't buy Seeky. Don't buy Seeky." I said, he said, when he gave me all the fundamental reason, not to buy it, no technical reason that he believed not to buy it. Overpriced everyone's looking at it and so on and so forth. And you had this breakout on a gap. And I bought it right there, you know, earnings. I didn't really care. I saw there was stronger earnings. I didn't care what my guy works at me, told me. And he thought it'd be right, but here it is. He made a new high a few days ago. It's one of the best public stuff. You know what I feel less than a year. Now, I know it's very vulnerable. It may come down, but we try to hold stocks for at least a year. We don't always do what we try to. So this is the kind of things we do. And this is only those institutions. And what are your newest additions, Milton? The latest year or the latest one, the last one's finia, water parts, sub 17%. I just bought it maybe not even 90 minutes two months ago. I don't bring up this full chart. Yeah, one in the one. Filia, career electric power that showed you was pretty recent. Insight was pretty recent. Yeah, Google, you got Google. That's interesting. It was the whole world. Probably two of you have already Google. Generaque was the last year. It's not doing so well down 3%. Let's say Argentina was an approach is in the last year. That's good. I got something for you, which I know you like to prepare for stuff. But I figure I just wanted to throw a ticker at it. Yeah, you know, software, there's technology, but there's hardware tech. And then there's software tech. Software tech had been performing so well for many decades now. But software is in a brutal bear market that the fear of being that AI is going to make these saw a lot of these software companies obviously. The ticker Milton is IGV. IGV. Let me take a quick look. Woo. I see nothing. I can no reason to buy the stock. I just say, wow, wow, you know, it made a rolling top here. I don't know if it technicals yet, but. Yeah, I GV. Wow. I mean, you know, listen, one thing you see, there's one positive in the stock. High value occurs at turning points. Okay, high value doesn't make place at the top here. High value took place when it's down. I don't know down to a. It must be down to 50%. So I don't know off its high. So the fact that you see this high value, that's a sign of a top. You look at stocks or indices at the bottom, you're going to see this kind of five day high value record. I mean, that's one thing we saw back in April. We see many, many major lows. You see this high value. That's the only thing I can see this truck going for it. I don't see any testing of a low. You can argue the test of this low, but it's really too far back. If you consider a test and probably there have been fundamental shifts and send a technician would call, you know, call this level as a potential test. I probably wouldn't. It comes to stocks are like a three month range roughly for a test. I mean, here's a so well, do you expect me to like to start? What was your opinion on the stock? No, no, I wanted your commentary. I mean, I think a lot of these software companies have been perceived by the market historically to be high quality companies, high return and equity, high growing, growing their revenues and earnings a lot. And you know, I. Company. Yeah, this is an ETF is not an active stock. Yes, yes. So, so. Look at Microsoft, which is one of the components. Yep. There's nothing beautiful about this stock. You have strong earnings and a weakening stock. Look at this double top right here. Look at these reverse or a double reverse. It's amazing. Negative technical stock. And I got it. I got some of the worst triggers for you. Try Adobe Adobe or Salesforce. We own the doby. We got out of it pretty well. My fact, my guy worked with was pointing out boy. I got out of PayPal. I got out of Adobe, you know, in the last, in the last year or some time and say, wow, you got up pretty well. So usually I get out of the stock because I find another stock to buy. But I look at I skim the tables for stocks that are showing me what I'm looking for. I couldn't find any today, for example. And then I put a stock in usually I take out another stock, you know, for whatever reason. Adobe, wow, wow. But Adobe took a look at a monthly chart. It was what's the leader look at this amazing leader. Yeah, don't look at how to rip people off. I used to buy Adobe, pay $200 for the disk. I used it for four years. Then he started subscription basis, which at first people was very negative subscription basis. Yes, stock. And now I'm paying them $250 a month for my subscription. It's not yet Milton. Try a look at service now ticker is an no w now. And that was a big leader for a while, right? It's a long term. Wow. And on a short term basis daily, it's a door. Listen. You're seeing the increase. The increase. This is one thing you see increase in volume. When you see stock to strong earnings coming down, the market goes more than the earnings, though, you understand. Yeah, you want to see stronger earnings with the market. This is amazing. I didn't have on service now. I did on Adobe. I didn't know Microsoft. I did on PayPal, which is really a door, you know, they say, right? I don't pay. I was down 90% of it's high. It's a PayPal. I own PayPal, but I got out well. And I did knock it out well. Yeah, PayPal is tough for me. Yeah, look at that stock. I'm not a PayPal. You know, I was one of the first analysts recommend Tesla. And I really didn't trade with. When Tesla had his new issue, when it came out to the new issue, I said the pattern of Tesla's new issue. Reminds me or is very similar. to the Patent of Cisco, where Cisco was no issue. And what I didn't trade it, well I got out early in the move, but I was really one of the first, certainly technical analysts. I remember one mission named, I met with a analyst who was negative, he's a famous bearing, he was negative on Tesla. And he said, it's just a moral company and all the came, and I said, Tesla selling cards without advertising. Not one app, and no, this is when Tesla first started. They sell cards with no advertisements. I said, this is tells you something about the underlying demand for electronic cars. That's all I needed to know. You know, they were selling cards, the volume was increasing, but they weren't even advertising. I mean, which car maker doesn't take it to the Super Bowl, you know, or whatever it is just to get his name out there and to show how great the car is. Tesla didn't need that. So Tesla was a great long-term stock. It's way overvalued. I haven't, I haven't bought it. But I never wanted a long-term portfolio. I don't see any reason to own the now. You see, you're so broke out of a consolidation, but you saw it was weak earnings, and the stock wasn't cheap by any. So I wouldn't buy this kind of a breakout. So I don't like, I don't like, there's nothing about the child of Tesla telling me to buy it. Again, like Bitcoin, you want to own it because it's gone up, but that's not a reason to own a stock. You want to own it because it's gone up with some strong technicals. I gave an example when Babe Ruth Swing is at a baller, when one of the great, he's swinging a ball. At the time it hits the ball, you know what's going to take off. So if you like to see it break out, that's what you can see at the market bottoms. You want to see the energy within the market bottoms. So you're going to have to worry about it later on. You don't have to look at it every day. That's a really good way of getting it. Milton, what do you think about the semiconductors? I personally have actually been quite, quite long the semiconductors. Why are you short? The fact that you're short, it's making me a little bit nervous. It's a little bit more quickly. Yeah, I sure, today you're on the market. S-O-X-X, S-O-X-X. We're short to the ETF. Let me show you why we're short. If you're not going to believe it because, of course, we're short because you gapped up into the high. One side of the top. It's not the only time it gapped. It gapped here, it wasn't the top. But it gapped into high wall. Russell was making the isolated one day of Russell. But more importantly, it's first down. The cycle, the cycle, Montgomery cycle again in January 30th. So peak the day before the cycle. But first down day was on the cycle day. And since there's a lot of emotion in the semiconductor stocks, as you know, more than 185% of its lows, I think in just less than three quarters of a year. It's up 145%. So there's a lot of motion in the stock. It's something that should cycle, so we should be right. And right now, you had a gap up today. I tell you, maybe we're going to run the-- I don't know. Let me see. The highest today was 335.47. The low today was 335.87. We had a 4.0.7 gap. This is-- I don't say it bullish, because it's very difficult to find bullish indicators exactly when they have to roll. You see it. But usually, you'll see two days after the low or three days after the low. You know, you saw it in 2025 and April, a day before the low. But we'll see how it might change the remind. I might come to my short on this. But if the market's going down, I think some of the stocks would lead to the downside. That's why I shorted it. And it was a cycle as well involved in it. Any other buyer sales signals or things you find interesting that have happened in this year? Well, the most interesting thing is I report to Korea stocks look good. And we thought Chinese stocks is good. One of my biggest clients, my favorite clients, would not touch China because-- and he's probably right, but I'm not as ethical as he is. He wouldn't buy China because they're very non-ethical government, as many-- for many reasons, aside that non-capitalistic. But I always took the view that once the country prospers, ultimately, it will become more ethical because just the way it's been capitalism is the most ethical type of system. It's supposed to come in and socialize. But anyway, I saw Korea, I saw China. And the US identity thinks to buy is fine things to sell. Maybe we have to wait till the bear market results before we find things to sell. I would say that the type of tap we saw in Russell should tell you that Russell will lead to the downside. And for the mental, the reason Russell leads to the downside because there's many-- I think 40% of zombie companies in the Russell 2000-- the Russell 2000 doesn't select for earnings, unlike the S&P indexes. There's be 600. You have to have an earnings criteria to get into it. And the best companies in the Russell that grow their earnings, they go into the mid-cap index. Exactly. But the mid-cap index, what's one of the problems? What's one of the problems is considering a small cap of an asset class. Because every time they re-balance it, you're losing the good companies. It's kind of funny. Definitely. All right, Melton. Thank you. Yeah. I hope you only covered a small portion of what I prepared to speak about. But I think it was really fascinating and good. I hope you think so as well. Yes. We'll include the link in your description about your institutional service, but also the retail service where it's a much simpler read. Effectively. If I can make an advertisement, the reason I charged $10 a month-- this is what I said to myself. I did no one will turn this down because it's too expensive. No investor will turn it down because it's too expensive. Everyone should at least invest for a month or two months and take a look. They've seen nothing like it. And the best benefit is it's not a trading portfolio. It's a portfolio for long-term investors with very, very few ins and outs. It's the perfect for an individual retail investor. Robert, thank you very much. And obviously, selling and getting out of the market before a crash is valuable. But getting back in the market is really-- What's the important thing, right? Almost for a valuable-- I actually happened to have, quote unquote, sold the top and been bearish before, marked crashes before, mostly due to luck, although actually, maybe over 100% of it was due to luck because I had negative alpha at the time. But I didn't get back in that one time I'm thinking of the 2020 crash. And that's just-- If you nail the crash, but you don't get back in, it's worse than just being 100% on stocks. It really-- I'm not sure you'd be honest with me. I've made the same mistake you've made. Yeah. But that's why I spent-- I used to manage three funds that I managed. A lot of the gold fund that worked for Steiner, I worked for Astero, I said worked for Druckenbleit, I managed money. But I spent the last 10 years just delving into research, really. And now I hope I would make the right mistakes because I will blindly follow the indicators rather than follow my emotions or follow what the headlines are telling you, follow the economists are telling you. Just follow it and you know, the indicators are very robust. So everyone makes the mistake you're missing the bottom. That's the worst mistake you can make. Absolutely. Fortunately, we built indicators strictly to call the bottoms. Absolutely. We'll leave it there. People can find you on Twitter, @BurrKnilton. Thank you, everyone, for watching. Please leave a rating and review on Apple Podcasts Spotify and subscribe to the Monetary Matters YouTube channel. Until next time. Thanks for watching. Interested in the Fundrise Income Fund? Click the link in the description to learn more. Until next time.