The Circle of Trust! Is Casey Mize In or Out? (6/30 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)
75m 5s
The podcast discusses key fantasy baseball storylines, starting with Casey Mize's standout performance against the Yankees, where he threw seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, supported by improved pitch movement and whiff rates. This has elevated him into the "circle of trust" for starting pitchers, a subjective group of reliable arms. In contrast, Eduardo Rodriguez is flagged as a sell-high candidate despite his 2.21 ERA; his low strikeout rate, poor peripheral stats, and a 4.40 expected ERA indicate inevitable regression. Endy Rodriguez is highlighted as a valuable two-catcher league target, showing strong plate discipline and hard contact after returning from injury, though his playing time is still limited. Emilio Pagán will resume closing duties for the Reds, making him a priority add in leagues needing saves. Injury updates include Aaron Judge's delayed re-evaluation, Max Fried's upcoming sim game, and Jasson Domínguez entering concussion protocol. Finally, the A's prospect Joshua Corota grower was called up, offering a contact-and-speed profile reminiscent of Luis Arráez, but with a slim margin for error in fantasy relevance.
Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports Got a fantasy question email fantasy baseball at CBSi.com Get ready to win your league Now here's Frank Scott and Chris hey there welcome in some fantasy baseball today on Tuesday June 30th I am Frank sample joy by Scott white and Chris towers today on the show We have the starting picture circle of trust and water Roderick is can't keep getting away with it But he does who's hot and who's not hit her addition and much more let's jump in oh This Unbelievable oh my goodness gracious players of the night. I do want to mention first and foremost It was a max months he off. I don't know if this is the first time it happened But it feels like it's the first time that I believe it was max months of the Dodgers max months of the A's in the line up together And max months he homework the Dodger one his 17th home run of the season so pretty cool I read that as they both homework. Oh, that's less fun. I wish they did maybe That's on me for reading the notes wrong Max months he of the A's one for three with a walk and a run not bad How how wild is it that? They were both born on the same date. It's pretty crazy name day Because Max months he is 12 years older than Max months he but the set October August 10th or something born on that is wild same day with the same name and both make it to the major leagues It's and both were drafted by the A's that's pretty pretty weird stuff That's like a Casey Myse up top about Madison bum garners first girlfriend being named Madison bum garner Wow, he's in control of what you know, it's not like he like Started dating this girl and then presumably he wasn't like oh my god. Your name is Madison bum garner - I would I was close to what drew them together. Oh really I would think so Somebody with the same first and last thing they started dating because they had the same name but like yeah, you would you would know of them Because they have the same name as you yes, you would know ahead of time Bob you want it and then rise to buy it, but it's still I still think it's a coincidence rather than him being You know Clayton Kirschel Matthews Stafford went to high school together Never If you watched any NFL playoff game ever it's some Julian Edelman played lacrosse in college at Madison bum garner thing. I really did not know that that is pretty pretty Girlfriend was I can't remember his fake rodeo name that would have been a better joke if I could have though. Oh Yeah, yeah, I vaguely remember that Let's like while you're looking at up Scott Casey Myse. Let's talk about him. He destroyed the Yankees here on Monday He's quietly been really really good this season seven shut out innings one hit 10 strikeouts to zero walks 13 whiffs on 88 pitches here five of those on the fastball four on the splitter three on the sinker and Should point out this Yankees offense is like Historically bad over the last four games, but Casey Myse You know you got there you face who's in front of you and he has been really good the whiff rate up on each of his Fastball his splitter his slider this season I looked into like pitch movement stuff on the pitcherless website all three of those pitches are getting more horizontal break this season So that could explain why you know he's getting more movement He's getting more whist on those pitches as well. He's down to a 263 ERA. It's a point nine seven whip over a strikeout Training and proof control Underlying numbers look pretty good. He's done a much better job Limiting hard contact this season the swinging strike rate is up pretty much every single thing that we look at for a starting pitcher Casey Myse has been better at the season. It is a smaller sample because he's been on the aisle a few times I think with groin stuff that's been going on we have the circle of trust coming up later on Is Casey Myse in the circle of trust? I was thinking about this I don't really know how to define the circle of trust, but when you know it you see I know when I see it Yeah, I kind of think Casey Myse is in the circle of trust When you're out you're all the way out. I know that from meet the parents Is he in so like is Nick Ladollo in the circle of trust? Oh, right? We're gonna talk about him later on He's on the list of things in my heart. I'm a hand probably so I I think Casey Myse Like yeah, there are plenty of reasons why he looks better this season Obviously there were a couple I else dense that interrupted it and up coming back from that The outings were short a little shaky Maybe he wasn't back in the circle of trust. He was there clearly before the injuries happened though I would say and I guess this start puts them back in it I don't know what made this start in particular so great like I get why Casey Myse There's a lot again. I get why he gets has a lot going for him this year, but why this start was so special I know maybe it's just one of those days, but like I do trust this version of Casey Myse to come up with this sort of start More than past versions of Casey Myse. I think it's the best version of him we've ever seen a great. Yeah, and You know just going through the rankings just now kind of vaguely defining circle of trust as like Top 48 Because I'm looking at my rankings and I'm updating it as we speak and I'm moving Casey Myse to 48. Oh no No, no, you're trying you're trying to apply objective standards to it's very much I just but like I've got like Emesheen not in the circle of trust Ryan Weathers not in the circle of trust Correct. Oh, this oriano not in the circle of trust. Oh Connolly early will Warren probably not in the circle of trust Yuri Perez. I think no That area I think it might to be ahead of all those names. Yeah, and that's what I'm that's what I'm saying Yeah, that he's kind of I think there's like a drop off where like Max Meyer in Michael King Probably I don't think Michael is in the Truss that guy. Yeah, I think what's got it? If I can't trust you Greg then I have no choice But to put you right back outside the circle and once you're out you're out. There's no coming back You know, I'm excited for the new one. They're making a new one of these movies. Yeah I don't know. I think it should be good. Right. I Agree with what Scott's saying here. It's kind of it's more of a feel thing because I mean even it's not a ranking Inside of my top 40 like Frambervaldez Freddie Peralta like are they in the circle of trust right now? Shree a savage. Shree a savage. Oh, we're gonna talk about him a little bit later anyway. The point was Jack Burns unlike Jack Burns from Meet the parents you can move in and out of my circle of trust like you know, it's it's pretty fluid. Yeah But right now Michael King is out. He's always in the circle of trust. Oh Yeah, definitely that was that it's been a long time since I've seen any of those. Oh man. He loved that guy Scott let's go over to your player the night. I I Don't think he's in the circle of trust. He should not of course. He's not in the circle of trust He's got a 220 one. Okay. He's got a 220 one year a and a one 18 whip Yeah, it's not in my circle of trust Which is the reason why I wanted to talk about Eduardo Rodriguez who I've made reference to this article I wrote last week and mid-reference to it a few times six pictures to Sell high on or if you know, you don't think it's realistic to sell high six six pictures who are overachieving six pictures So you should have put that much trust in a lot of those pictures Spencer or getty over the weekend have already come crashing back down to earth Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't yet and Here he delivered another great start By conventional baseball standards gave up one-on-run in seven innings Lowered his ER rate to 221 as you point out Frank recorded one strike out Which brings his strike out rate to 6.3 per nine That is the seventh worst among qualifiers his swinging strike rate is the fifth worst among qualifiers now You may say I grew up in the 1980s. I don't know I know that you don't have to get strikeouts to be a good pitcher to which I say first of all It's not the 1980s anymore, but second of all Okay, then what if you're not getting strikeouts. It's true the very rare pitcher can succeed without getting strikeouts at a good rate But you have to be able to do something else well. So what is it that Eduardo Rodriguez? Is doing well is he allowing weak contact Average ex of velocities 59th percentile that's above average slightly But it's not it's not so impressive that that would be enough to sustain him on his own 59th percentile expected well-bound contact is 374 it was 380 last season both of those are worse than average numbers There you go. Is he getting a lot of ground balls? No 40th percentile ground ball rate actually below average is Is it just pristine control is he like the new Greg Maddox? No 3.6 walks per nine 31st percentile for walk rate so not weak contact not hard contact but it happens to be on the ground So it's not leading to much damage not Terrific control and again, he's not missing bats his expected ERA at water Rodriguez is 440
Or 82 versus the actual 221 mark. Fine, you don't believe in expected ERA. That's why I went through the trouble of breaking it down piecemeal. Nothing adds up here. And that gap between expected ERA and actually R.A. is the second biggest difference among active starting pitchers. The highest is Randy Vazquez, who's expected ERA is over seven, believe it or not. But Eduardo Rodriguez is really bad and he's going to get much worse and it's just a matter of time. Don't put him in your circle of trust. Try to myth you can't. To add a little more color just because I think we really drive this home because nobody wants to believe that ERA has very little predictive value. And you can argue with me all you want. ERA has very little predictive value. It's not zero predictive value. A guy with a five ERA over 100 innings is probably a worse pitcher than a guy with a two ERA over 100 innings. But ERA is very, very weak at predicting ERA from one timetable to the next. It gets less week over a large amount of innings but we are not near there. You need like 500 innings for ERA to really have much predictive value. So that's it. That's the only thing that Rodriguez is doing well right now is getting a low ERA and that has no predictive value. I've also seen the suggested that well he's a lefty with a change up and we saw a lot of lefties with change ups find a lot of success last year. Matthew Boyd we're seeing with Parker Messick. It's been a profile that has befuddled major league hitters. Rodriguez change up isn't all that good. He's 27th out of 54 with at least 50 played appearances against their change up in Wobba allowed 27th out of 54 he is 47th out of 54 unexpected Wobba with his change up. He is he has the second lowest with rate on change ups among those 54 pitchers. There is no good explanation for why for why I'd rather Rodriguez has a low ERA except that somebody is going to outperform their peripherals like this over 90 innings every season and it happens to be him. There is no reason to think I'd rather Rodriguez is going to continue to be a must-start pitcher. I think he is a lot closer to being worth dropping than he is to being a must-roster pitcher. All right again that is Eduardo Rodriguez. Not that there's any much else to add but I guess a few things that I will his bad at this year is 247 his left on base percentage 87% for his career 303 and 74%. So typically over the course of a season doesn't always happen but these things tend to regress towards career norms towards league averages and things like that. And so far his bad at and his left on base percentage have been very very fortunate to season again that is Eduardo Rodriguez. Let's talk about another Rodriguez. Indy Rodriguez. I think this one might be actually good. I think he might be really good. The playing time is just annoying man. Yeah I mean he's at like 70-ish played appearances in the month of June which is not incredible but for a number two catcher you can live with it. And I think I do. Indy Rodriguez might be good. His play discipline has been really good this season. He's hitting the ball really hard like 92-mile an hour average ex of velocity. Ton of line drives. He's hitting the ball in the air to the pole side and I think it's worth remembering that it's been a long time now but Indy Rodriguez was a top prospect at one point and he was not great in 2023 when he was either like the opening day and every day first baseman for the pirates in 2023 if I remember correctly. I think that's the case. One of those years maybe it was 24. Well so 24 and 25 I think he played like 36 games total across the history of the game. Tommy John surgery I think at the end of the 2023 season barely played in 2024. Last year he wasn't healthy all season he ended up having an older nerve transposition surgery. I believe which just sounds awful don't want to have to go through that don't want them to move my nerves around ever and they just leave them where they are if we can. It's possible he's just healthy now and hasn't been healthy in a long time and this is a talented player who finally feels right. The pirates did already get rid of Joey Bart. Indy Rodriguez opened the season as their third catcher in the minors but he was good enough that they had to move on from him and I do think we could see a point maybe soon where Indy Rodriguez just takes over as the primary catcher for the pirates. He's probably the best one there at least the one who's showing the most right now so it's incredibly hard to break in a catcher these days certainly in a one catcher league. I don't think he matters in one catcher league but I think any two catcher leagues. Indy Rodriguez is a worthwhile option if you don't already have two good ones. I got to feel like the playing time situation is going to improve because Henry Davis is doing nothing. Indy Rodriguez is kind of 404 on base percentage overall. 18% walk rate. Andy has only started two of the past five games just annoying. It is annoying but that's why I think it's going to correct itself and just you mentioned Indy Rodriguez used to be a top prospect. He was surging in 2022. That was his breakthrough season in the minors. He slashed 323 407590 across three levels. The numbers got better at every level. That's 25 home runs and that's the injury started right after that. He comes back. He's not hitting the ball very hard at all. It's like, okay, I guess he's just broken and very quickly everybody gave up on Indy Rodriguez. But if he's healthy, that's a reminder of where things stood in 2022. To drive home that point as well prior to the 2023 season, he was the 23rd ranked prospect by baseball America. Yep. I think he was a better prospect at the time than either Joey Bart or Heather. Henry Davis who were both pretty good prospects. Yeah. No. Indy Rodriguez doing some very, very interesting things right now. Totally agree. He should be rostered in two catcher leagues. Would you guys take Indy Rodriguez or Cooper Engle in a two catcher league? Indy. Indy, yeah. I think so too. What about someone's kind of tough. We did get some news today that Will Smith is still kind of dealing with this neck injury. Would you take Indy or Dalton rushing? I think I would, I think I'd have to say, Indy, I mean, just rushing. I'm not here. I've done next to nothing since surging out of the gate, right? He has nine home runs. Seven came like in the first two weeks or something. Yeah, he has a 746 OPS in June. So he hasn't been awful, but yeah. It's seven RBI, 10 runs despite playing pretty regularly. The strikeout rate is way up. Yeah. Yeah, I think it might have been a little bit of a flash in the pan. Yeah, I would go any there as well. I haven't met 22. So he's kind of like right on that that border, but definitely should be rostered in 12 team two catcher leagues and, you know, right there in 10 teamers as well. Honestly, I have a couple of injuries and a ranked ahead of him too. So probably even in 10 team two catcher leagues, Indy Rodriguez needs to be rostered. Before we hit our first break for those listening on the audio side of things, feel free to leave us a five star rating and review on both Apple and Spotify. It really does help us out a lot. Let's take a break and we'll be back right after this. Mmm, total amount. Yeah, total amount. No, total amount. Ho-Kulta said, "Kajken kesen grillaukseen." Kabanoss, Maakarit, American pekoni, Paistilekket, Tomaporki, Juicy Porkit, and Ribsit. Ai-ai. Total ho-ko. Welcome back, fantasy baseball. Today, let's hit the news and notes and we do have some Yankees updates here. Aaron Judge is not expected to be ready for a re-evaluation later this week. They said that Judge would be re-evaluated in four to six weeks. He's nearing that four week mark, but obviously it looks like they're trending closer to that six week mark when they're actually going to re-evaluate him. So it looks like we're going to have to wait a little bit longer on Aaron Judge. Max Fried will throw a two inning sim game on Tuesday. He's targeting 30 pitches in that one. And Judge Chism left after a collision with Jason Dominguez in right field. He's in concussion protocol, but after the game, Aaron Boone said that Judge does not have a concussion, but will remain in protocol until I guess he passes all the tests. For the Cincinnati Reds, we have some updates here. Ellie De La Cruz was in the lineup as the DH Monday after tweaking his ankle on Sunday. He launched a two run homer in that game. A.U. Hanyo Suarez was not in the lineup after taking a pitch off of his left wrist on Sunday. X-rays and a CT scan both return negative. And he said himself that he's good. So hopefully in the lineup over the next couple days. And Emilio Pagon will be activated on Tuesday and is set to be the team's closer once again. 62% rostered is Emilio Pagon. Someone that should just be re-added everywhere, even in, let's say, point leaks. 62% is probably right for points leagues because you don't happen. Not everyone with the closer role is going to be rostered there. At least any road, Oleg. Any road, Oleg. Any, any, any league where saves are scarce. I mean, Pagon, I'd take him over either the white socks guys. I'd take him over Clayton Beater. Yep.
Caleb Killian. - Anybody on the pirates, anybody on the nationals, anybody on the A's, anybody on the Giants. - Yep. - Yeah. - I think that all makes sense. We had a few A's bats go on the aisle, Tyler Soterstrom with a left hip impingement, Jacob Wilson with right thumb inflammation. The A's called a prospect Joshua Corota grower. You know nothing about this guy was watching the game. He had a couple hits, he stole a base, and the minor league numbers are kind of interesting. 75 games a season between AA and AAA. He hit 323. They set on the broadcast that he was leading the entire minors and hits. So that's kind of interesting. Seven homers, 76 runs, 15 stolen bases, 845 OPS, barely walks, barely strikes out. It's kind of like Luis Arise with speed in the minors. I don't know how sustainable it is, but do you guys know anything about Joshua Corota grower? - I can't say I'm familiar with his ufra. He runs a little bit, so that could be enough because you expect someone who makes the kind of contact that he does to hit pretty well, but it's like, if he hits 280, yeah, he could probably matter for fantasy, but even making that much contact, hitting 280 is hard. So I don't really have a ton of expectations there. - Difficult profile of the land. - You do see it occasionally, Luis Arise is obviously the most telling example, but we're seeing Jacob Wilson this season, margin for error can be pretty slim there. There's a reason why we always have to make that Luis Arise comp with players who have this skill set because there's one kind of on his own. - All right, Byron Bucksen was out on Monday with a right hip impingement. Bucksen underwent an MRI, so we'll wait on those results and he is day to day for now. Jeremy Pania was originally out of the lineup Monday with left leg discomfort, then after the game, the Astros put him on the IL with a left calf strain. So hopefully you got him out of your lineups. I have at least one lineup where I left him in, just 'cause I didn't think it was a big deal, but here he is on the IL. Joe Aspada said he expects Jeremy Pania to only be out for a minimum IL stint here. Legs have been an issue for Pania all season. He had the hamstring, now the calf, but when he's played he's actually been really good. It's just frustrating. Brain and Nemo was out of the lineup Monday and an MRI on his left shoulder revealed an AC joint sprain, Skipschumacher said Nemo could wind up on the IL. Will Smith of the Dodgers is not expected to be ready to return when the Dodgers begin their home stand on Thursday. He's been on the IL since June 11th with neck inflammation and has yet to resume baseball activities. It's already June 30th. Probably gonna need to rehab stand. I don't know if he's back before the All Star Break. Again, that's where he's chance isn't. Liam Hicks is expected to return from the IL Tuesday in Colorado when first eligible. So I hope you saw this news item before setting lineups. If you're playing a weekly lineup league because you wanna get those games in Core's field, that would be great. Will you-- - That's good. Well, anyone will have this season. Marlins at Colorado at Oak or Sacramento. - Yeah, it's hard to beat that unless they were going to Las Vegas. - Pretty awesome, yep. William Domus was out of the lineup Monday with Bax Baszams. David Bender was placed on the paternity list and will miss one to three days. Logan Henderson made his first rehab start Sunday at AAA. Three shutout innings with seven strikeouts. He got up to 50 pitches. Pat Murphy said he expected Henderson back before the All Star Break, which is pretty comforting to hear. We know the Brewers kind of play these games with Logan Henderson, but it sounds like he has a spot waiting for him once he's ready to go. 72% rostered. So you guys think Logan Henderson is a must roster pitcher. - Yeah, he was looking great before the injury. He's been-- I think he has one miss in his entire major league career. All the other starts between this year and last year have been good. Obviously, let's go to that AAA start. If he's gonna be back before the All Star Break, it sounds like he can only have one more rehab start for that to happen. - Yeah. - So you're gonna be able to put Logan Henderson back in your line up very soon. - I'd put him right there with that Sean Burke, Trevor Rogers. Gosh, who else would you mind? - That's who you mind. Yeah, I'd put him right there with those guys. - I might put him-- - I might put him at the top, but he's not-- - He's not a group. - Yeah. - I don't know, Scott. Joey Cantillo was a must, must, must, must for you. - Must, must, must, to quote Tenefer from Parks and Rec. And I'm glad at least one person got that reference on X. Yeah, I think that's a tough call. You know what? I'm gonna put Logan Henderson ahead of Cantillo, even. - I think-- - Must, must, must. - Must. There has to be a fourth one. If he's a half cantilever. - All right. Noah Schultz is on track to return Wednesday against the Orioles in eight starts. He had a 582, ERA in a 134 whip. 40% rostered any interest here in Noah Schultz. - Not none. But all those guys we just mentioned would have to not be available. - I agree. It feels like a deeply name if someone dropped him there. You know, you kind of go with a spec ad there. But 12 teamers, I think we probably need to see something from Noah Schultz before we add him. We got a couple hitter updates here who are on IEL. Luis Robert will start a rehab assignment at Triple A on Tuesday. Giancarlo Stanton has restarted a running program and will take live at bats on Tuesday. Brendan Donovan ran Sprints on field Monday and will be reevaluated after the Mariners home stand to determine if he's ready for a rehab assignment. And Trent Grisham is expected back either Wednesday or Friday this week. Obviously Grisham is the closest of all these names. But how would you rank them just in terms of, I guess, your interest level or stashability? Luis Robert, Stanton, Brendan Donovan, Trent Grisham. - I think I'd go Grisham Donovan, but where's he gonna play? I guess, soon he's gonna play. - He should. - They traded a decent amount for him. - But there's not an obvious opening for him. Is it gonna be a situation where he's just kind of playing somewhere every day and they just give guys days off? - Like Colt Emerson's power has been okay, but he's hitting around 200. So I don't know. - I could see Emerson get it going back down potentially. - They're probably not gonna give up on Jake P. Crawford. - Cole Young just home or twice year on Monday as I'm sure we're getting to. He has started every single game this year. - Interesting. - So they seem pretty committed to him. - Yeah. - And to be fair, like the expected stats look pretty good actually for Young, not amazing, but pretty good. - And even without that, he's on close to a two and a half to three win pace. It's not like he's been a disaster. He's a solid player. - With these two home runs, he now has a solid June five home runs. I think he's betting over 290 for the month. - So I don't think, I don't think Cole Young's going anywhere. - Emerson would be the most likely candidate or I guess they go super utility with Brenton Donovan, like you were saying, playing every day, but no set position. - Scott, how would you rank that group? Chris, Chris, Luis, Robert, Stanton, Donovan. - I would go, Gresham, Donovan. Oh, you know what? Mm, I'm like a Robert at the top of the list actually. Robert, Gresham, Donovan, Stanton. - I am kind of interested to see what happens with the Mets when Luis Robert is back. Things can figure themselves out by then, but they have Soto, Benj and AJ Ewing in the outfield right now. Mark Fientos had DH, so I guess they could shuffle through the DH role if they wanted to do that. I don't know if you saw Juan Soto give a bay little league home run today, but maybe he should be head T. H. - Ewing has been quiet, but effective. So I don't think they're. - His June has been solid. Like he kind of scuffled and made. - But again, on base of time. - He's bounced back. - He's been hot recently. - Yeah. I mean. - I just hope they let the kids continue to play, right? I mean, they're having a terrible season. - Why wouldn't they? - You can probably pull the plug on Mark Fientos and I don't think anybody would really mind that, except for Mark Fientos. - Mark Asemian was diagnosed with a grade three left hip flexor strain and is expected to be out four to six weeks at minimum. Spencer Schwalumbach will likely report to Brave Spring Training Facility in early July and could be a candidate to return by late August or early September. There's a lot of like, kudes and probably's and hopefully's with Spencer Schwalumbach. 45% rostered. He's a pretty long ways away. - See, wordstashing, I'm not sure. - I'm not about an aisle star. - Kind of surprised how far away he is. - Yeah. Considering he and Hurston Waldrip had the same injury and it was like only a week apart in Spring Training that they were. - I think they're being really cautious because he didn't pitch at all in the second half of last year. - With an over if like. Was Waldrip just removing loose bodies but Schwalumbach had to get like bone spurs? - Shaved down which requires additional healing that would make more sense. 'Cause yeah, it feels like an unusually long timetable but this is a guy who had a fractured elbow from pitching last year which I think you really have to be careful, yeah. - Yeah. - AJ Smith-Schauver is going on a rehab assignment and he's coming back from Tommy John's surgery. So I did not expect to see Smith-Schauver before Schwalumbach. - Yeah. - And like, well, he's not as nearly as it is
interesting for Vanity purposes as well and Bach, but he was showing some breakout signs prior to the Tommy John surgery last year. So I think it's just a name to keep in mind, A.J. Smith-Shawver still, you know, month to six weeks away. All right. Corbin Burns is expected to be re-evaluated during the first or second week of July. He's been shut down from throwing it since the beginning of June. When he suffered a terrace major strain in his shoulder, he's trying to come back from Tommy John surgery as well. Addison Barger will be shut down a few weeks after sustaining a stress reaction in his back. So perhaps that opens something up here for Sean Keys. That was the name, right? That we were talking about yesterday, prospect promoted by the Blue Jays. And the Tigers are moving K-Dare Montero to the bullpen for the time being. Before we get to the circle of trust, I do have some waiver wire pictures. I want to quickly ask about Zebby Matthews, a great outing here at the Astros 7 innings, one run, 7 strike outs to one walk. He had 13 whiffs on 89 pitches. I noticed the velocity up on some of the secondaries and his breaking pitches had a lot more horizontal break in the start. I still can't really figure out why Zebby Matthews has had good starts, but he has had three quality starts in a row. Sean Burke, solid little wild here at the Orioles, five and a third, two runs, eight strike outs to three walks. Velocity did remain up. The 13 whiffs on 89 pitches, that looked very good for him. Shane Boz, solid quality start against the white socks, seven innings of two run ball, six strike outs for walks. He's another one. He's pitching better. I just don't really get it. Last eight starts, 308, ERA, 121 whip for Shane Boz. And Sean Monaya, he was solid at the Blue Jays, five and two thirds, two runs, four strike outs. Kind of just feels like a spark for those in points leagues. Chris, how would you rank these four in terms of your interest level? Zebby Matthews, Sean Burke, Shane Boz and Sean Monaya. Okay. Sean Burke for sure at the top. I would go with Boz. I think I would go with Monaya, certainly in a point sleeve because he has that spark eligibility. And I have found sparks very useful this season relative to trying to play the reliever game in my points leagues. So I will add Sean Burke, Sean Monaya to that pile of Anthony Kays and Reed Debtmer's and Hope he gives me something. And then Zebby's at the bottom of the list. I'm not saying I have zero interest in him, but kind of shocked. He's already 54% roster. That still feels too high. I think people picked him up for the two star week. Yeah. He's a decent pitcher, but not one that I think I have a ton of faith in. So the only one, so like Sean Burke, obviously with velocity being way up on the fastball three straight starts and getting much better results. Like he's he's must roster at this point. I would say must, must, must. I don't know, but must at least. And the only one I really care about aside from him is Shane Bosz. And I have noticed one little thing with Bosz over this recent stretch. The hiccups along the way. I think it's like a stretch of seven starts where he has an ERH just over three. Couple hiccups in there. And it's the hiccups are the starts where he throws the sinker more than 10% at the time. And the good starts he throws at less than 10% at the time barely made the cut this start with 9%. But some of them see basically ditches the sinker entirely. And so it I'm gathering that pitch is not doing him many favors. It's one I think he throws more to right handers, right? So predicting how often he's going to use the sinker. You could look at the opposing lineup maybe, but I haven't gone through all those games and seeing okay, how many righties were there each time to see if it's entirely tied to that? Yeah, the sinker for the season has a 91 mile per hour average exit velocity against 211 batting average 263 slug. Like the results haven't been great, but the expected stats don't look very good on that sinker there for Shane Bosz. I just wish there was more of a standout pitch or pitches for him. His curveball is good, but it has a 29% with with rate. So usually a good pitchers best with pitch is probably somewhere in the 30s. If it's really good, maybe it's like a 40% with rate, but yeah, I just wish there was a little bit more juice there with Shane Bosz. He's been pitching well, but yeah, just wish there was a little bit more to back it up for him. Let's take our final break when we return the circle of trust. We'll talk about it right after this. [Music] [Music] The circle of trust starting pitcher edition I have I think like nine or ten names so we got to keep this moving or they enter out. You know when you see it we're not going to try to quantify it, but here we are. Don't try Chris. Don't do it. It's a really makes me uncomfortable. Chris, it's a vibes thing. You're kind of a vibes guy. He does he does use the millennial giving off blank vibes as opposed to the the Gen Z giving blank. Yes. Oh yeah. I will now know how to do it ironically. Are any of these pictures giving circle of trust vibes to you? No, no, don't use vibes. Oh, just giving. Are they giving circle of trust? George Kirby had one of his best starts of the season against the Angels eight innings two runs seven strikeouts to one walk 17 whiffs on a hundred pitches. Obviously great matchup. Angels know my trout in the lineup. I kind of wish there was like more under the hood in this star, but what do you guys think? Circle of trust for George Kirby? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. He's in because I never really give a thought to sitting him. No. You know, I've been pretty underwhelmed by all of it. The fastball hasn't played nearly as well this year. And so I was encouraged that he threw it only about half as often in this start and got a much better result. Maybe that's maybe that's something he should dabble with more. Miss the good fastball. Obviously, but even so, Kirby in the circle of trust. Yeah. The one thing that argues two things that stood out to me as positives, the four seem in a curveball. He got whiffs on both of those pitches in this start. The whiff rate on both have been way, way down this season. So that was encouraging. Can you do it against the team? Not name the Angels without my trout. We wait and see with George Kirby. Let's talk about Traeus Average. A strong outing here against the man six and two thirds. One run at three strikeouts to zero walks. But he did have 14 whiffs on 94 pitches. So feels like he deserved more than three strikeouts. Kind of weird. 11 hard hits. Only 61% of his pitches for strikes. Here are his walks in his last six starts. Zero five zero six two seven. I have no idea. We can only beat himself. I keep saying it. Is he in or out? So here's the problem with the framing. Right. I know. Oh, Chris, don't do it. But I'm going to do it. Come on. All right. Come on. I do not trust Traeus Average. I don't know how you could look at what he's done. He's out and say, but like the circle of trust should somewhat overlap with my rankings. And I definitely have him right. Is it like in a Morpheus blob? And it like, yes, goes like this. And then because like, well, because there are reasons to rank it. If you're ranking, you savage higher than some pitchers who are in the circle of trust, you're ranking him that high for upside, not because you trust him. Yes. So we are doing single factor analysis here. And the single factor is on a gut level. Do you trust this picture or not? No. Okay. I do. I got your savage in my circle of trust. Even with the high walk outings recently, I think they are the most exaggerated form of when things go wrong for him. I don't think he's going to keep walking five plus batters per start. And I'll note that two of the three starts with five or more walks were actually pretty good. So yeah, I trust you, Savage. I think by not trusting him, you miss risking out on too many potentially great starts. But that's not the question. Well, I agree with you, but that doesn't mean I do trust him. I will still start him. Every player I start doesn't have to be someone I trust. I think you're making this you're like this. I said this and playing categories with my dad who wants to argue every single answer. Your dad sounds like it's not good in this category.
really and truly. Your dad sounds like a smart guy. Yeah. All right. I'm going to put a little post it here on this rundown. Only do Circle of Trust when Scott is on the show. Let's talk about Ryan weather is an awful outing here against the Tigers. One and two thirds innings and seven hits five runs to earned some questionable defense behind him. But yeah, it kind of felt like this was coming lots of hard contacts in this start. Uh, inner out Ryan Wethers out absolutely out. Yeah. Out for sure. He was in before this start. No. Two really good starts in a row. I felt like you're too trust. After those last two starts, I think I the exact word I said sell while you can. I think this is highlighting some like cultural and personality differences. Scots from a small town very trusting. And big city guys just for just to cynical. Oh, no, there's no way you can trust Ryan Wethers. Uh, I guess I do kind of live in a small town now, but I wasn't I wasn't I was raised in the suburbs like that like that John Cougar melon camp song. The one about sucking on chili dogs. I don't know if being raised in the suburbs would make me less trusting. I don't think you could can you sell high on them still Ryan Wethers. Yeah. I think it's going to be hard to do. Is he droppable? Like, no, would you drop him for Joey Cantillo must must must? Uh, maybe Logan Henderson must must must. Oh, man. He's gotten 10k per nine. Yeah, Wethers does also enter big number also entered to start with a 450 X year A. I'm fine with that, you know, like if it's I, I, there are very few of my leagues where I could say it is okay. It is acceptable to drop Ryan Wethers in this league, but you know, some people play in Shaveler leagues than I do. And or or in leagues where only 60% of the league is still attentive at this point. And, and so that creates roster clutter too. And yeah, if like it's a real, if it's a, if it's a situation where you could honestly entertain the question, um, I, I don't think my trust in Cantillo is any less than it is and whether's I mean, it's not that high because like he was just on the wave of wire yesterday, but it's not any lower than Wethers. Ranger Swarris actually turn in a quality starting in the nationals who destroy lefties, six hitting three runs, eight strikeouts to one walk. Uh, he's been money to 94, ERA 113 whip over a strikeout for ending Ranger Swarris in or out in. Oh yeah, in, in. Oh yeah. Way in. Yeah. It's like maybe at the beginning of the season, you're never quite sure, but he's in. Yeah. He's definitely in as long as he can remain healthy. You know, these back things usually crop up on on Swarris knock on wood. But, uh, you know, it has been a thing that has basically bothered him every season. So hopefully that doesn't happen. But right now, he's pitching really, really well. And he has a really good defense behind him too with the red socks there. Uh, what happened to Parker Messick here against the Ranger six and two thirds, eight hits, four runs, five strikeouts to zero walks. The velocity came back down a little bit. It was way up in his previous two before this. I think previous three before this, um, but he has gone six plus innings in three straight. All the numbers look really, really good. Parker Messick in or out. Yeah. I think he's pretty easily in. Yeah. He's definitely in. I, this was a step back since the velocity on the fastball returned to normal. It was up between one and two of the previous two starts. And they were both awesome. And as he talked about making a mechanical change prior to that two start stretch that I hoped would give that improve velocity some legs. Maybe it doesn't have legs, but yeah, Messick still in the circle of trust. He's the highest ranked pitchers we've mentioned here. So yeah, he's for me. Yeah. Yeah. I moved him ahead of George Kirby last because well, I think he's inside my top 25 starting pitchers. Uh, something interesting with Messick here. Eight hits allowed a 348 bat weapon in this game. Just two hard hits, a 78.4 average EV. So feels a little bit of lucky there for Parker Messick. Nick Ladolo, effectively wild. I guess at the Brewers five shut out innings one hit four walks four strikeouts, only five seconds on 96 pitches. He's not right. He's just he's not right. He's. Yeah. Nick Ladolo is not right. He's he's not in definitely out of the circle of trust. And he's he had to lean on the sinker a lot in this start, which doesn't seem like a doesn't seem like a long term solution for the deal. It seems very much like a bandaid. And he survived it. But think about band aides is they come off eventually. It wouldn't surprise me if he gets going at some point, like clearly a talented pitcher. I just kind of wonder is there some kind of underlying injury thing is the blister still kind of in the back of his mind. Is it, you know, I there has to be something affecting him. His location plus is down from 104 last year to 91 this year. That is just untenable. But it's like we talked about a lot lately. That's the kind of thing that can switch on overnight. And so when that's the thing that's wrong with a pitcher, I am loathed to give up on them because it could happen all year. He could just struggle to command his pitches all year. But it's also entirely possible that he just wakes up in the next couple of days and finds a mechanical tweak and figures it out and gets going because the stuff still looks good. And we have seen Nicoladola be a very good pitcher. So I do not trust him certainly no. I think he's the least trustworthy of the pitchers we talked about so far. But I don't think he's dropable where like if I had to drop someone between him or Ryan Weathers, I think I would drop Ryan Weathers because I also have the concern that Ryan Weathers just isn't going to be in the rotation too long. Let's talk about show to Emanaga a quality start against the Padres six and a third nine hits two runs four strikeouts zero walks 13 whiffs on 97 pitches here. Another one kind of like parkour mess nine hits in the start 391 Babib five hard hits 79.4 average EV. I don't know was he was a bit unlucky here show to Emanaga. It was his first quality start since May 13th. We know that he's been all over the place. You know, home runs juice ball right now to win blowing out in Chicago. Interapps out is out. Okay. In. Because I know who showed it. Emanaga is. And I am pretty sure his ERA is not going to be great. I think it's going to be terrible, but I don't think it's going to be great. I think it's he's like a true talent high three's ERA guy. I know I'm going to get strikeouts. Not elite strikeouts but pretty good strikeouts. I know I'm going to get a good whip from him. I think trust means being able to project what a player is going to do. And so there are pictures that are better than I think he's going to show to Emanaga who I do not trust. But I think he is in the circle of trust. Yes. Look, you're asking me to play semantic games. I'm going to play semantic games. You can't get I guess. And I just to contrast to maybe here I'm going to put some definitions on it myself. I am when I think circle of trust and this is this is not something I'm consciously thinking it's just I think it's where my gut goes. I am thinking when I'm setting my line up each week, do I think twice about putting this guy in my lineup? And if the answer is yes. Not in the circle of trust. If the answer is he can go in. I don't really care who he's facing. I don't really. It's fine. I get not that he's an automatic start necessarily, but just if there's a hole there and he's sitting there on my bench, it's not like I don't know he's facing this team. He did this last time. I don't know if I should put him in or not. Do I really trust him? If I don't have to do all those gymnastics, I just he's in the circle of trust. You can't change the rules just because you don't like how I'm playing the game. That's not what I'm doing. I'm just trying to explain why you I would say Emanog is out and you would say he's in. He's in. We do have two more names to get to quickly here. Sayin, you know, Contra, not a good one here in course five and two thirds, five runs, five walks, three strikeouts, 12 wins on 96 pitches. The control had been much better as of late leading into the start. He also had five quality starts in a row before this a 260 year a 104 whipped during that span. Samuel Contra, inner out. Okay, so two things here. One course. I don't care. I don't care about anything that happened in the start to definitely in a point league. It's really hard to him. I mean, I guess if you have a good to start pitcher, you probably said him, but he's in in the points league. I'd say probably out in a row to league because I think the ERA is going to be similar to Emanaga, but he's not the elite whip guy even when things are going poorly. So I would say in and points out and wrote. He's in right now for me. I mean that may be a
as June's been awesome outside of the course field star. Yeah. But his May was just like his April and June were actually good and his May was just terrible. So that's kind of distorted the numbers here for Sandy. And gauge jump. Meet the Dodgers. Unfortunately, four and two thirds, 11 hits, five runs, two homers allowed in this one. It's got to tell you last time out that there would be some home run regression here at some point with gauge jump. Ten hard hits in this one, 93.5 average EV, but its previous five starts 119, ERA, a 0.79 whip. Any rain into the Dodgers? It's gauge jump in or out. After this start, I'm afraid he's out. I get him out, Greg. I kind of give him the benefit of the doubt just because like he was so good and he was facing the best lineup in baseball. They just got asked her and it's back to like, that's what I was doing. Like I was I was willing to start gauge jump until he gave me a reason not to. And so I put him in the Must Start section of the two start picture rankings this week, even though he had this first matchup against the Dodgers. So, you know, I got all over my face fair enough. But I don't think he's nearly as dominant of a pitcher as he looked in the starts prior to the Dodgers. And that was the message I hope I got across, even as I was recommending him for two starts because he was thriving mostly on elite control. 68, 70% strikes every time out. And you look at his mind, I'll be track or great. He'd have stretches like that where he was dominating with control and then he'd have stretches where it was just walks all over the place. And so I felt like, you know, when he's not hitting his spots perfectly, how is this going to look for gauge jump? Is he dominant enough to survive that? And I think only 63% strikes in this start. I know on an individual start, that's just a matter of a few pitches. But it was the first time where we didn't see him have this overwhelmingly good strike rate. And you know, that speaks to just how well he's locating in general, I think. It's obviously not a direct correlation there, but it is a correlation. And he got knocked around pretty good. So you know, this is a conversation Chris and I were having last week. I forget who the pitcher was about, but you know, Ranger Swarras often fits into this category. Like when he's pitching well, he looks like an ace. And when he's not pitching his best, he looks pretty ordinary and not every pitcher's like that. I think it's just how my people like to some guys just have the stuff to overcome not having it that day, right? Yeah, like the feel. I do think jump part of the problem and why I would say he would never have been in my circle of trust is just he's made five major league starts. And there's just like Paul schemes was in the circle of trust after five stars. That's probably it, right? Like it just we're still dealing with a deficit of information when it comes to gauge jump and who he is, who he was in the minors was pretty different than who he's been so far. He's throwing a lot of strikes at the major league level. He did not throw many strikes in the minors, but that was small sample sizes too. So I think I'm excited about gauge jump. I think he's good. No, trust would not be the word that I would use there. So I think he's an inherently any pitcher this early in his career is going to be inherently volatile profile until we find out who they are for sure. I think he's good though. So I want him in certainly on my team and probably in my lineup, but I can't trust him yet. No, yeah. I do want to hammer home that last point too that I agree. I think gauge jump is good. I think he has proven that there is legitimate talent here. I don't want anyone listening to this be like, oh no, they're flip flopping. They're turning on gauge jump. He had a bad starting in the Dodgers. We knew that there would be some regression. I think we all agree that he's still a really talented pitcher and I think long term we're all pretty excited about him. Who's hot and who's not hit a addition? Want to kind of speed through this as well? Some hot names. Hunter Goodman, man. Who's hotter than this guy? Five homers in his past four games. The only question is how high can this number go? Entering Monday, he was on pace for 48 homers. How high do you guys think this number could actually go for Hunter Goodman? Look out Cal Raleigh. I think you still set the overrun there at 39 and a half. I think he gets to 40. He's at 26. Yeah. Basically at the halfway point. I was thinking, I think he gets like 45. 14 at his 14 with the number of games we have left is basically what he did last year. A little slower, but you know, he could get to 45, but that would still be close to a 40 homer pace for the full season, which I don't really think Hunter Goodman's a true talent level 40 homer guy. Scott mentioned Cal Raleigh in there. He is kind of doing exactly what Cal Raleigh did last year. He's just pulling the ball in the air more than ever before. It's like a 31% pulled air raid. That is outlier stuff. It's a 17% barrel rate. You do that in Corus Field, although a lot of his homeruns have come on the road. I get that. It might not matter where he hits. Yeah. I've noticed a lot of discussion among Rocky's fans about whether they consider trading Hunter Goodman right now. Cash out. Which I think wouldn't be a bad idea. He's a pretty good player, but I don't think he's like a superstar. So you have to keep that in mind, although I think he'd be pretty good anywhere. I just think he'll anyone will be worse at Corus Field, even if he's been better away from Corus Field than at home. So if nothing else, the batting average expectation should be lower outside of Corus Field. Yeah. He's become a good defender, hasn't he? I feel like that he was surprisingly good last year for a guy who in the miners. His snack cast off is like basically spot on mediocre. Yeah. I don't know. I don't know how much trade value he'd hold. That's an interesting question because he's cause controlled for a while. And so like if the return isn't, if you can't actually get something good for him. And they might as well just hold. Yeah. Yeah. But, we'll see. I mean, there will be contenders out there that need a catcher. The Yankees need a catcher. So I don't know how much they're willing to give up, but we might find out. Otto Lopez hit his seven home run and June has been his best month yet. He's hitting 340, three homeers, 21 runs, six deals, 922 OPS in the month. And Scott, is it time to consider Otto Lopez over names like Brandon Lau, JJ Weatherhold, South Stewart at second base? I saw that Chris has already moved Otto Lopez ahead of Lau and Weatherhold and. Homer. With how hot he's been, man, he's, I mean, he's been hot all season. I think it's a, I think it's a real question. I did recently move him past like Ozzy Albees and save your Edwards and Nico Horner. I don't know. I just, I think if you just want to go strictly off the data, there's, there's, there's a justification to put him ahead of Lau and Weatherhold too. I just, I don't, I mean, he's been in a circle of trust. I don't know that I have quite the same trust level that this profile is durable for Lopez. So I'm keeping him behind those two. All right. I think it's, I think it's close enough between the three of them, my expectations. Like even if, even if Lopez remains this good, I don't think any of us see him hitting 333 all season. No, no, no, no, no. But it was, he's shockingly good though. Let's say he hits 285 rest of season. That's basically sustaining. Yeah, I don't, I don't know that he's. It's fair that much better than Weatherholds or Lau if he's doing that. It's kind of last year's heraldor Predomo, if he hits 290, walk rate won't be as good. That's the biggest difference. He's like a 5% walk rate. But it's going to be close to 95 runs and 70 RBI and he's on a 30 steel pace and a 15 homer pace. It's a, it's a really awesome season. Yeah, seven, a really awesome season. But so are branded Lau. Yeah, I think there's a fairly like five to, I don't know, it's even 12 at second base. I think it's not, not a huge gap. I mean, if you want to put Casey Schmidt in there, it's 13. I think you put Travis Pizzana in there if you wanted to. Yeah, he's slow down. I assume he worked. Yeah, I was going Sam and Tnachi, but I think they're kind of similar players. So you can go 14 in that case. Tnachi is a dude, man. He is. He's awesome. He's fun to watch. He's, he's pretty good. I realize now sometimes I do this. I cut something from the run down, control X. I mean to paste it somewhere else and then I forget and then I lose it. And I hate that. And I was supposed to talk about Esmeralyn Valdez much earlier in the show and they completely forgot to do it. But we've talked about it now because he is a hot hitter. He has homer than four straight. We talked about him yesterday. I look for everyone who listened to yesterday's show like we talked about him a lot. I don't know that our analysis has changed in one day. Probably shouldn't. But he's 12% rostered. And I think in five out of the other leagues, if you know, Nemo has heard and Tyler Sotters from one on the IL, like you need a replacement. He's hot now. The power is legit. I think he's going to strike out quite a bit. Yeah, like, like the power is legit. I can say that. And so if you want to just roll the dice on that on him continuing to hit for power, I don't think it's the craziest idea. I want to get your hopes too high. I think I want to.
to think, "Okay, I picked up as Merlin Valdez, my outfield problems are solved, probably not. His profile strikes me right-handed, all or nothing sluggier who's stuck at a corner position. That's right-handed." Those guys, if they struggle to make contact, they often wash out of the league very quickly. That is my expectation for Esmerlin Valdez. At one point in time, I might have said something similar for Teosker Hernandez. Sometimes it works out. Do you have a pair of Philly's bats on this Liz Bryce Harper? He is on a heater right now. Last 10 games, 450 with five homers and 13 RBI. Brandon March, he keeps on, keep it on, two for five with a double-dong. One of the homeruns off Braxton Ashcraft, the other off of lefty Gregory Soto. Pretty impressive stuff here for Brandon March. He is putting the finishing touches on a monster June, 330 batting average, nine homers, four steals, 992 OPS. We spoke about it last week, but I think Brandon March, rightfully so, is someone that should be moving up our outfield rankings pretty rapidly? Wasn't his career high for homers 11 coming into the season? I think last year he had 11 or 12 homers and he has nine in June, just a completely ridiculous time. 16, two years ago. Oh, 16, okay. Yeah, I actually have a solid. 16 homers, 19 seals, two years ago, but only hit 249. Obviously the batting average much, much higher this year. It was always a platoon player before this year too, which, just getting more reps and more A/Bs can help add the totals. But the strikeout rate has been way up in June and that kind of concerns me. He had three strikeouts among the two homeruns here on Monday. So it continues to go up. We're used to him being more like 250 hitter. He's been batting 320 this year. That's the part that I expect to correct. It's going to fall apart at some point. It's like a 35% strikeout rate against lefties. It's a 236 X-wo bug against lefties. It's going to fall apart on Brandon Marsh at some point. But the circle of trust right now for sure. Yeah. I do have a pair of mariners to talk about as well. Dom Canzone hit his 13th home run. This one came off of a lefty. He actually has started against four of the past five lefties, which I found pretty interesting. The underlying stuff, stat-cast stuff looks really good for Dom Canzone. So if you start to play more, I like that. 61% rostered. I was pretty surprised to see that number. So high. And Cole Young, three for three with a double-dong three RBI. Last 30 games. He's hitting 299 six homers and an 800 OPS 37% rostered. Should these guys be more rostered? What do you think? Dom Canzone 61% Cole Young 37%. Hard to say that for Canzone because he's strictly plays against right handers. Has started against four of their past five lefties. Oh, did you say that already? Yeah. Sorry. And he homer off a lefty here on Monday night. All right. Well, if that's changing, then I guess we got to think about that because Canzone's data set has always been very impressive. And I would like to, like even in the weeks where the mariners were facing a lot of right handers, it's like anytime a left hand reliever comes in, he's coming out. And so how usable is he even in that situation? But if that's changing, if they're starting to trust him against left handers, sorry for not listening, Frank. It is still only 28 played appearances against lefties. Andering today, I guess 29 now. Sure. And I don't think it's an automatic ad. Maybe like 15 team five outfielder leagues. Okay. You go ahead and do that in Canzone because it's so hard to find out field help on the waiver wire. Yeah. I think a five outfielder league in general, I think he's an okay guy because like, I've got some 12 team five outfielder leagues where I have carry carpenter. You know, like that, that kind of player can be useful to have around even if you're not using them every week. But no point leagues for Dom Canzone. No. No. No. Now, young, I think is definitely under roster given is the the revelations today about how good he's been in June. Obviously the two-homer game makes that look a lot better. All of a sudden, but you know, he's still doing fine before then. And he's played every single game. Like I said earlier in the show, it has to be a league with that requires an extra middle endfielder because the middle endfielder positions are deep enough in leagues that don't that you don't even get to young. But he's a solid player. I actually just dropped him in tower wars because of a roster crunch. And now I'm regretting it. Last name on here is Caleb Durbin who continues to hit his seventh home run and updated due numbers 325 six homers five steals 974 OPS. I'm not sure he's someone that you hold on to all season, but he's he's pretty hot right now. And as a hot hand play, I think it's totally fine to continue using Caleb Durbin right now. A couple of names who were not very hot, but homeard here on Monday James Wood. The home run did come off a left. He said you like to see that, but he has slowed down in June to 25 batting average 736 OPS, 36% strike out rate. And Andy Pahez hit his 16 home run his previous 27 games before this. He was hitting just 202 with two homers 618 OPS. Chris, any concern with these two or is it just kind of the EBS inflows of the season James Wood Andy Pahez? I think a bit of column A, bit of column B for Andy Pahez. I think it's both the EBS inflows of the season and a little concerning because I've never really bought into him all that much. He is an extreme fly ball hitter and an extreme pull day or hitter. He has one of the most extreme. We call it tilt, I think. He's got one of the steepest swings in baseball. And I think there's just going to be stretches where he's not quite on. And there doesn't seem to be a lot of margin for error with his swing because he's so geared for hitting for power. But I think he's fine. I think he's a good hitter. I think he's a good fantasy player, but he was never going to be as good as he was early on in the season. So it's again, a little bit of both. One other waiver wire hitter to ask about Cam Smith, two for four with a double-dong, has four home runs in his past seven games. I think he's a good athlete. Like the expected stats are okay, but it's, it feels like his production has just been so sporadic over the course of the season. 41% rostered. Personally, Scott, I'm not that moved by this. I think we just need to see a bit more from Cam Smith. Yeah, he's a curious one because to me, like the sum of the parts has been greater than the whole. Because I look at each of the data points there and none of them blow me away, but they're all like solid. I feel like the stat line should be better. The strikeout rate's a little high, I guess, but it's not in the verge of 30% in it, it's 26. But that's really the only one that seems a little bit yucky. I don't know. I'm kind of just waiting for Cam Smith to turn the corner. Who knows, maybe this two home or game will be the start of it, but there's no reason to believe it'll be the start of it. I just think eventually, eventually we're going to have a pretty good player here. I did drop him at least three leagues this week. So you're welcome. I think I would rather take a shot on like Dom Canzone or Esmeralyn Valdez over Cam Smith for now, just until we see more. But he's intriguing. Just need to see more. Some hitting left overs. Somebody pointed this out to us on Twitter, but Christian Yelich has now sat out for the past five games against lefties, even though his splits are very even this year. So something to watch. Gunner Henderson moved up to lead off in an attempt to get him going. He went two for three with a run scored trade turner slowly picking things up last 12 games 340 one homer 14 runs to steals. Francis Golden Door hit his first home run since coming off the I L. Will Sikit Charis hit his 18th home run before being ejected from that game and Zach Netto also hit his 18th home run. Just kind of selling out for power this year. It feels like he has eight home runs in June 18 home runs overall, but strikeouts way up this year only hitting 226. It's a I was about to see look the baddy averages are disappointed, but like 18 home runs 59 runs and 11 steals like that's that's pretty frustrating season for him, I think. Yeah, but good. So I don't think you're too worried about it. Yeah. Right. One pitching left over Braxton Ashcraft struggled with the long ball here at the Philly six innings five runs. H. Strikeouts three homers allowed in this one still had 16 whiffs on 97 pitches 10 hard hits in this game, but through a bunch of strikes. It's kind of just a bump in the road here for Braxton Ashcraft. Yeah, I mean, the three home runs definitely out of character. He had allowed eight all year prior to that. The ground ball rate isn't as high as it used to be. It has been trending down something to watch. Yeah, but I don't think I don't think he's going to run into these kinds of home problems, home run problems very often. The call to the bullpen for the pipe
Here it's Gregory Soto entering the eighth inning with a three run lead facing the heart of the Phillies lineup. He recorded two outs. He was charged with two earned runs. Johan Ramirez got the final out of the eighth and then it was Mason Montgomery who got the ninth inning now with a four run lead. So no longer a safe situation. But interesting. I don't know if this was, you know, they use Soto to face lefties in the middle of the Phillies lineup or they're starting to experiment with using other pictures in the ninth inning. I mean, I think with Soto struggling here. Yeah, I mean, he said himself, set himself back even a little bit more tonight. I think the pirates really want a closer and I don't think they have one trademark. It does Dennis Santana and Gregory Soto have really struggled. Soto, especially lately. So bring a roll this back. Given, I think that would make sense. I don't know if they're going to do it, but this is a team that's desperate to make the playoffs. So I do think they will trade for a closer. The pirates will have a closer at some point. It might be Mason Montgomery given the way they used him. The fact that they scored three. They were up one heading into the ninth. They scored three and they still brought him in. I think that tells you he was likely to get the save, but isn't very good this season. Evan Sisk, I think is the other, the one guy who's been good in their bullpen this season, basically, he pitched the seventh inning in this one. Yeah, I think the pirates closer is not on the roster, but I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to get aggressive with it and make a trade early. I just, none of the bad teams, there's so many teams that aren't out of it yet because everyone's so mediocre this season, especially in the A-L that like. And the Red Sox are kind of surging right now too. Yeah, I don't know who's who's quite ready to make a trade yet. Like Rocky's Angels, you know what could be interesting? Luke Weaver from the Metz. Oh, man. Okay, yeah. I totally missed the Rangers climbing to first place. I know they've had a lot of saves recently. Yeah. At 500. The American League is just a disaster. Yeah, the entire American League outside of the Yankees and even the Yankees kind of stink right now. Oh, they do. Well, the Rays have the best record in the American League. Oh, they finally took it out for the many, many Rays fans listening. They're run differentials, not nearly as good as the Yankees BS. But yeah, you look at the teams that are probably out of it. And it's like. Luke Weaver, I think, is a name to watch. I think he can wind up somewhere as a team's closer. So we'll see. Yeah, it's been awesome. Or the Blue Jays, Louis Varlin picked up his 17th save for the Red Sox. Our oldest Chapman was unavailable. Garrett Whitlock picked up his first save of the season. And if the Red Sox start to falter again and they trade Chapman, Garrett Whitlock would probably be the next name up. So just, you know, if you have played in a league where you like to stash closer candidates around the trade deadline, that would make sense. For the Rangers, Jacob Latz pitched a perfect eighth and ninth for his 17th save. That's his fifth save this season of two innings, which is just a very unique weapon is Jacob Latz for the Rangers this year. He's got a width below 0.7. Yeah, that's wild. He absolutely should be an all-star this year. He's awesome. Oh, yeah. So Trevor McGill got the ninth with a two-run lead. He picked up his 11th save for the twins. Yoendries Gomez entered with two outs in the ninth. A two-run lead. He allowed a solo homer, but did pick up his ninth save. And he has four of the last five saves for the twins. So it kind of feels like the guy. Feels less words. For the D-backs, Paul Seawall got the ninth with a three-run lead. He gave up two runs on three hits, but picked up his 19th save. And he has five run runs over his last two outings. He's giving up runs in three of his last four. The year is up to 455. So Paul Seawall kind of turning its style. Paul Seawall. Yeah, not a lot of great alternatives there. I think Kevin Ginkgo would be the next up. I actually just went through this whole process with all 30 teams. The latest bullpen report, if you want to check that out on CBS Sports.com. Check it out. Also on the CBS Fantasy app to stream or not to stream. On Tuesday, we have Cade Cavali at the Red Sox. Matthew Libber tour at the Braves. Martin Perez against the Cardinals, Griffin Jax at the Royals. Brandon Sprote against the Reds, landed Roop at the D-backs. Jax, Roop and Cavali are all good. Yep. Yep. Could see another good start from Sprote. He just dominated the Reds, but I like it. Certainly not in the circle of trust. I probably go Roop, Jax and Cavali in that order on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we have Troy Milton at the Yankees, Joey Cantillo, must, must, must against the Rangers, Walker Bueller at the Cubs, Colin Rage, it's the Padres, Michael McGreevy at the Braves, Tattooi, Imae against the Twins, Andrew Abbott at the Brewer's, Shane Drowin against the Reds. Kind of an interesting day too. I like Milton. I like Cantillo. I like Imae. I think Abbott and Drowin could both be good. I don't think I'd use Abbott at the Brewer's myself. Good place. But pitch. I think I'd prefer McGreevy at the Braves more. I think I would go Cantillo Imae. No, Cantillo Imae, Milton as the top three, but a couple of those others look decent as well. McGreevy, Abbott I think could be okay as well, but yeah, pretty good streaming days here. We went way too long, so Team Nintuse will save for next week. There's a pretty fun one on there too, but we will save it for next week, I promise. About time we had a fun one. Put a reminder on there. Whoa, whoa, whoa, come on. Wow. Those are your listeners, sir. Oh gosh. All right. Well, the anticipation will have to wait for one more week. We are going to wrap there for Scott Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as always for putting into fantasy baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five star rating on Apple or Spotify. We will back again tomorrow. Bye. Paramount Podcasts. Now streaming only on Paramount Plus. Chicago. It's my home. The acclaimed series The Shy reaches its final chapter. This is shy. Anything's possible. The final season now streaming only on Paramount Plus.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Casey Mize delivered a dominant start against the Yankees, lowering his ERA to 2.63 with improved whiff rates and pitch movement, making a case for inclusion in the "circle of trust."
Eduardo Rodriguez is overachieving with a 2.21 ERA, but poor strikeout rate, weak peripherals, and a large gap between expected and actual ERA suggest regression is coming.
Endy Rodriguez is a strong two-catcher league option, showing improved plate discipline, hard contact, and a healthy return from injuries, though playing time remains inconsistent.
Emilio Pagán is set to be activated as the Reds' closer and should be rostered in leagues where saves are scarce, given his role.
Aaron Judge's return is delayed, trending toward the six-week mark for re-evaluation, while Max Fried and Jasson Domínguez have minor injury updates.
Joshua Corota grower, a contact-oriented A's prospect, was called up with modest fantasy potential due to his speed and low strikeout rate.
Summary:
The podcast discusses key fantasy baseball storylines, starting with Casey Mize's standout performance against the Yankees, where he threw seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, supported by improved pitch movement and whiff rates. This has elevated him into the "circle of trust" for starting pitchers, a subjective group of reliable arms. 40 expected ERA indicate inevitable regression.
Endy Rodriguez is highlighted as a valuable two-catcher league target, showing strong plate discipline and hard contact after returning from injury, though his playing time is still limited. Emilio Pagán will resume closing duties for the Reds, making him a priority add in leagues needing saves. Injury updates include Aaron Judge's delayed re-evaluation, Max Fried's upcoming sim game, and Jasson Domínguez entering concussion protocol.
Finally, the A's prospect Joshua Corota grower was called up, offering a contact-and-speed profile reminiscent of Luis Arráez, but with a slim margin for error in fantasy relevance.
FAQs
The 'Circle of Trust' is a subjective group of starting pitchers that the hosts trust, based on feel and performance, not strict rankings. It's fluid, with pitchers moving in and out based on recent results.
Casey Mize has improved his whiff rate, movement, and hard contact limits, with a 2.63 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Despite injury interruptions, his underlying numbers suggest he's the best version of himself.
No, Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.21 ERA but a 4.40 expected ERA, with poor strikeout, walk, and contact metrics. His success is unsustainable, and he's likely to regress significantly.
Yes, Endy Rodriguez has strong plate discipline, hard contact, and a .404 OBP, with a history as a top prospect. He's worth rostering in two-catcher leagues, especially if his playing time increases.
Endy Rodriguez is the better choice over Cooper Engle in two-catcher leagues.
Aaron Judge is nearing the four-week mark of a four-to-six-week re-evaluation timeline, but it appears he'll be closer to six weeks before being re-evaluated.
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