the call: Wednesday 27 May

The call is brought to you by Centuria, an ASX-listed property fund manager with $21 billion in assets under management. Want to diversify beyond equities? Explore the Centuria Sydney CBD Prime Office Fund at centuria.com.au [Music] Hi there and a very warm welcome to this Wednesday edition of the call. So this is the program that we discussed 10 stocks and we put a buy hold cell recommendation on them for today. You know, what would you do today theoretically? I don't forget that this is information only. It's not financial advice and I have two expert guests lined up who will do you good over the next 60 minutes or so. So a very warm welcome to Andrew Whiteland from DP Welp Advisory and Henry Jennings from Marcus today. Guys, lovely to see you both there. Look, it's an interesting scenario. We've got a ran saying that the US has broken the ceasefire by firing upon it and then we had an inflation read that came in lower than expected. So just past noon here in Sydney, the local market is just up marginally. Henry, this inflation read, I mean we're not economists but does it give you sort of some hope that perhaps maybe the RBA might pause regardless? Would you make any investment decisions based on what you anticipate for interest rates right now? Hi, Nadine. Hi, Andrew. Yeah, I mean it's always hard because this is a monthly number so it does jump around a little bit but it certainly does push the case for the RBA to stay at least on hold for the next meeting. You know, let's face it, anything could happen with Iran. We're all banking and hoping that there is some sort of peace deal. But when you look at how many ships are actually passing through the strait of Humors and the oil price, that is telling us a slightly different story to the one that's coming out of the White House and to some extent the one that's coming out of Iran. So I think you know all the balls are still in the air but this at least is one ball that has been landed without a thud on the floor in terms of pushing up you know beyond where the market was going for. So I think that is a positive for our market. You know clearly we haven't got the same driving forces in our market as overseas markets have. I mean Korea is just going absolutely nuts at the moment. Those South Korean ship stops are going through the roof and we're going to talk about those in a minute. So you know we haven't got the same drivers but I think it does take a rate rise off the table and certainly you know you'd be cautious if you were the RBA and I give them what's happening in the Middle East. Yeah, I can see the cost be as up by 4% for and a quarter percent as we speak this very moment. So Andrew what is your approach to equities in Australia right now? And I know that that's a big question but are you sort of looking for bargains you know very much bottom up stock picking or are you just sort of saying let's wait let's see how this all eventually hopefully ends in the Middle East. Yeah Nadine, hello Nadine, hello Henry it's it's a tough one isn't it because you're right like if I was only doing some work for the drop tomorrow at 1050 there's your T's 3 ETFs that I'm looking at relating to Australia and some of the numbers without preempting the companies we're going to look at today like there's at least three in here today that have suffered that we're going to consider that have suffered a double digit drop over the last 12 months. It is tough out there in Australia and equities land whereas internationally I mean it's certainly tough as well but there's been much more positivity relating to that text base. So here in Australia probably the only glimmer of hope is around that material space. I mean banks have been under pressure consumer discretioner has been under pressure. So there are some names that are really starting to sort of look interesting we may or may not get to those in this hour but I think given the the way the market has fallen there probably is a little bit of sort of stock picking there but equally so we also know from the guys and girls at S&P Glowable the SBA the team will tell us that if we try and pick the eyes out of companies there's an 87% chance we're going to be wrong over a 15-year time line. So short-term trying to be nimble trying to identify the ones which are fall and is there some value but trying to sort of pick things over a 15-year time frame is tough and that's where potentially a more index based solution might be the way to go. All right well no doubt we'll talk chat about that in some way shape or form in the next yeah let's say 55 minutes now okay let's get to the stock of the day which is web travel group so just for those of you who might just be joining us we usually pick a stock of the day somehow related to news that's out there shares that might be moving the market and today we saw web travel posting a rise in annual earnings with strong growth in the America's in Europe help helping to offset some disruption from that war in Iran. Total transaction value rose 20% for 2026 to 5.8 billion dollars revenue also increased 20% to just over 394 million dollars underlying net profit after tax was up 8% to 86 million. Now the group says that bookings in the first eight weeks of the financial year rose 6% though transaction value fell. Look market coming I mean I should say web travel group coming up the boil as this day moves on but still way out performing the broader market so I'm going to ask my guests is it a buy hold or sell today Andrew? I think it's a hold on a deal and even though the results were positive my key concern is more the broader thematics of you know we were talking very briefly just before relating to what the RBA is going to be doing with interest rates if you're getting slugged to higher interest rate on your home loan or investment property or whatever the case may be you know travels probably the least thing that's on your mind at the moment also just relating to general cost of living pressures as well anything in that consumer discretionary space I mean take West Farm as an example you know West Farm has peaked at $90 here we are today $74 would I be buying West Farm as a Webjet and be picking West Farm as every day of the week and twice on Sunday so I look I note the fact that it's a P E Webjet is a P of 8 forecast earnings per share growth of 29% next year so that certainly is a positive and that consensus number which is somewhat laughable the third-end analysts who follow it suggest that it's going to target price of over five dollars a share relative to that $2.45 that we just saw in there at the screen at the moment but to me this is you know if you're doing sort of the gold standard of what a consumer discretionary stock looks like anything in that travel space would be it too many moving parts at the moment so it's a hold Henry Webjet or sorry Web travel group I'm showing my age you are showing all right Web travel group yeah this is the Web bed business in terms of hotel back-end management and I've got to say I thought this was a pretty good result given that you know the backdrop of course is the disruption to the Middle East you know the America's bookings grew 41% that is a big number you're at it 19% so that is not a bad number either so you know a lot this this stock has suffered considerably after that Spanish audit announcement that we saw earlier this year so that that's really put the kibosh on any rally but I think these numbers were pretty good it's got a bucket load of cash as well which gives it some serious optionality it's only captured about nine hundred million dollars and it's got nearly four hundred million dollars in cash and another hundred million dollars in undrawn funding so you know there's certainly some M&A opportunities for these guys and I think you know it's it's one of those companies that you know they're doing well controlling what they can control they can't control what's happening in the Middle East nobody can and that obviously has a detrimental impact on their business but I think you know from a you know from a growth point of view America is looking good Europe is looking good and you know I think this one has suffered and is probably due to come out of the kennel I know that you know we we've looked at lollies kennel club stocks and there's plenty out there on the ASX you know we have been left on the hard shoulder having our picnic as we watch the world go buy in chip land with the ss y high next etc going absolutely nuts at the mile I think it's like 11% in career this morning just crazy but you know for me w e b does look like a buy here I think we've seen the worst of it and you know if we do get peace in our time that is going to be a tailwind for these guys it was interesting to note that the the new CEOs had his salary docked a couple of hundred grand and given some options as well with the strike price of three bucks I wouldn't be surprised to see that as strike price those options be in the money in the next six to nine months so I have a buy on this one that is a buy for webjet all right not webjet jays web travel group after a good start let's let's get to the first five stocks that we will be talking about also because Andrew's here will be detailing a few ETFs as well. as well, so we've got a compare and contrast coming up between B-E-M-G and E-M-K-T. APA Group is on the list in the Infrastructure Space, AGL, Energy, Ample, and the Fire Trail Australian Small Companies Fund, SFML for Trevon. And I know both of my guests know a bit about that one. So let's get right to it. Rashimi has written in saying, well, you're welcome. We love bringing you this content every week. Recently, he says that he's heard Andrew on another platform where he recommended or talked about B-E-M-G for emerging markets exposure in a diversified portfolio. Now, our Rashimi says that it seems to be fairly new ETF compared to E-M-K-T. He says that he can see the MER is more-- and we've talked about that plenty-- for E-M-K-T. So can Andrew please share his thoughts on how different or how similar these two are? And I would imagine. And he'll tell us which one you'd prefer, Andrew. Yes, thanks, and a deal. And I'm not sure-- Rashimi, there's only one platform. I'm not quite sure what you'd want by other platforms. You must be confused. Thank you, and a deal, for being so understanding. Look, I might just do a comparing contrast. So B-E-M-G is from Betashe's, and it's an emerging markets, ETF. Great little graphic we've got there. And basically, it really just follows the Morgan Stanley Capital Index, emerging markets index. So it is literally the pure passive apply relating to that underlying index, whereas E-M-K-T from Vanneck, it basically follows-- it's more of a what we call a multi-factor ETF. It looks at things like momentum, quality, size, values. So at one end, the B-D-Shears one, it's more a passive follow-on index. The Vanneck one, the comparing contrast, is more of an active, albeit rules-based, but it's looking at a number of different factors. So if I had been talking elsewhere, hypothetically speaking, then in that particular example, it was building a very simple portfolio with $100,000. And so a passive solution for that exercise was the way to go, which is why B-E-M-G was the ETF of choice. It's got around $100 million funds under management, despite the fact that it only started in August last year. So that's actually not too bad. And the NER, the cost of running the fund is only about 35 basis points, which for an emerging market-- and we probably should clarify what emerging market is-- so it's non-developed. But we were talking before, it's got China in there, South Korea, which is on a tear at the moment because of the chip manufacturers. So you've got those styles of countries represented. So certainly B-E-M-G, even though it's only new, it's going along pretty well. And EMKT, it's got about $700 million funds under management. It's much more expensive. It's actually nearly doubles or in 69 basis points. So and if you look at the underlying performance, B-E-M-G, the index-- because again, the underlying ETF hasn't been around long enough-- the underlying index returned 30% over the last 12 months, which is actually one of the best performing asset classes. And over the last five years, it's returned around 8% per annum, EMKT, the more active solution, the more rules-based. It's returned 34% over the last 12 months. I mean, 34%'s great. But it's delivered about 4% more than just following an index. Over the last five years, though, that's returned 13% per annum. So that's a far more material difference, 8% for the passive, 13% for the active. So I guess for me, if I'm building a portfolio, I'd be probably more inclined to look at B-E-M-G because it plays nicely with developed ETFs, like your Vanguard or your I-Rot Ishes or BlackRock, rather. Whereas if I'm trying to be a bit more tactical, is there more legs in South Korean shipmakers or something like that? That's where you then might play that EMKT, but more of an in-out type solution, long-term passive, I'd buy B-E-M-G. So they both, the buy, just depends on which hat you were in the day. Yeah. OK. So I think that's pretty clear for Rashimi. Henry, I mean, you love Aussie stocks, picking Aussie stocks. Now, I'm not denigrating any of your expertise elsewhere, but if you were looking for emerging markets exposure, I mean, a ETF is, you know, is it a good way to do it? Absolutely. You know, it's pretty hard to get exposure to the chip sensation at the moment through Aussie stocks. We don't have very many in falling into that basket. So this is a great way to play TSMC, Samsung, SK, high-necks, all of those. And both of these are going like an absolute train at the moment. You know, South Korea is going nuts. In terms of the B-E-M-G, you know, Taiwan, China, and South Korea, basically, that's it with a bit of India chucked in, 12% India, but 25% Taiwan, 23% China, and nearly 19% in terms of South Korea. So this one really is just going like a train, as is the other one. You know, I'm an active kind of guy, and I would probably prefer to go with the active manager, even though you're paying a little bit more, you are getting a better result. And there is a little bit more of a, you know, a little bit more of a skew, I guess, in terms of using some of the, the knowledge and the experience of the fund managers. So they're looking at high-return equity, low debt to equity. Some of these factors at play, and it is doing very, very well. So, you know, in the words of the girl on the taco, "But why can't we have both?" Certainly, you know, they are both very valid, and both going extraordinarily well. And let's face it, it's hard to get anything like this kind of level of excitement in the Aussie market at the moment, you know, and when you want to a good thing stick to it. So these are both going very well. I'll be happy to, well, certainly holding them if you had them. It's hard to be buying them up here, but, you know, every day, we say that, and every day South Korea seems to go up four or five percent without too much trouble at all. So it's a bit of a frenzy there. It's making the dot-com boom look positively conservative, to some extent. It's true. Yeah. It's going nuts. Rashmi, there you go. There is a compare and contrast, and a bit of a difference in opinion as to how these two invest. So keep in mind, you've got to take your, you know, risk-reward scenario, your portfolio into mind. All right, thanks for watching. The best thing you can do, Rashmi, is tell your friends about us and become an Osbus supporter if you want us to continue making this wonderful content. All right, enough of that. Let's get to APA. This one is for Bruce. So it's an infrastructure play here in Australia, gas predominantly, and, you know, Henry, everybody's looking for infrastructure exposure right now. There's not a whole lot of ways to get it on the local market. So is this a good buy right now? Yeah, we're all looking for infrastructure players, I guess, in some respect. It's got a reasonably good yield at around, what is it, around 6% at the moment. And, you know, that's obviously attractive, not 100% frank. You know, it's hard to get really excited about gas pipeline. I must admit, we've just seen a little bit of a downgrade by one of the brokers after the annual reference electricity price came in from the energy regulator, and we should see our power bills falling. And as a result, we are seeing APA falling. So that is certainly something there. I mean, it's not going to kill you. It's not going to make you rich. For me, this is probably a hold at the moment. It is an infrastructure play. And as you rightly say, Nadine, there are a few and far between infrastructure plays, obviously, in the utility space, there's APA, Agile and Origin. And we have got many now trying to get into the data center space with the building infrastructure there. So for me, it's really not that exciting. So I have it as a hold for the time being, especially on the back of those, the regulator, reducing prices. So that will weigh a little bit on APA. - Okay, that's a hold. Andrew, share prices have been going pretty well. Oops, got my glasses on in 2026. Can it go higher from here? This one's for Peter. - Sure, could go higher, could go lower. That's the market, Nadine. Of course, it got spun out of Agile many years ago. And I like the fact that 90% of their assets are unregulated, which is code for they can set the price. Whereas if you think about like a Transurban, whereby, you know, it's subject to, I mean, they can set the price to a degree, but there's certainly a lot more ministerial intervention. So that is certainly a positive from my point of view. It is trading, APA is trading well above consensus. Consensus is about $9.30, whereas you can see it's well over $10 at the moment. I like the fact that the CEO is adding to their holding over the last 12 months. We like seeing that inside of buying, but it's just got ahead of itself. And in a rising interest rate environment, that is unfriendly for infrastructure. So I would think it is a hold. We were buying a fair bit of it, sort of in the low eights early nines. So, yeah, we like it, but not at these levels, it's a hold. - Okay, there you go. Thank you guys, Peter. Hope that helps. - Hi. Andrew here. Did you know you can get your stop picks straight to the front of the queue and to the guest you choose if you become an Osby's contributor? It's our small way of saying thanks for your support. The link is in the show notes and while I got you we'd love it if you could leave us a review. Thanks for listening. Let's get to the next on the list and you mentioned. well hang on a second. Ample I think we're doing ample or agl energy. I'll have somehow gone ahead here. Agl energy is the next on the list as I was saying you mentioned it Henry what do you think of agl? Well it's it's pretty much gone nowhere this year which I guess is somewhat of a result in some respects compared to some of the blue chips it did get up to $10.50 but here we are back down to 866 which is probably about right. It's not got a bad yield just over five percent 100% fully frank which is good but we are seeing changes to the way consumers consume electricity and of course the regulator plays into agl as well with those those price cuts so that that's probably not particularly bullish for them and also the growth in battery adoption and let's face it that's only going to continue as the technology improves and the cost comes down for battery adoption you know if you got a solar panel on your roof and you got a battery for the nighttime you're going to have it sus to some extent so it's hard to find a particularly brilliant reason to be buying agl it's suffered it's trading towards its lows for the year but it really as a Chennai Twain would say it don't really interest me much so if you got it you probably hold it for the year but otherwise there's certainly better things out there they're going to give you a lot more a lot more bang for your buck and given the regulators moving the last day or so that that one is going to continue I suspect to bobble around at these low levels around 860 to 9 bucks so nothing very exciting hold Henry is looking for something exciting but everything doesn't have to be exciting does it enter? I was thinking Henry was about to break into song and we know that he's theatrically minded and I thought here we go but sadly no excitement for us on that front maybe gentle listener and viewer we might get through at the end of the show will levels here okay just to let you know I will not be doing that just fun fact and a doing second company listed on the city Stock Exchange back in 1871 so they're in fact the oldest listed company on the ASX so you've got fun at parties aren't you Andrew? You can think we actually pub trivia now I'm not used to it Wednesday night if you win the meet try please keep that to yourself. Julia she's one that wins the meet trays all the time in this house. So certainly that increasing demand for electricity relating to data centers but equally so what does the energy mix look like and I've spoken of nauseam relating to this sort of that policy uncertainty that certainly causing companies like AGL concerned they had a recent upgrade at the McQuarry conference which the market sort of took positively but it's down to 10% for the last 12 months and it's up only 6% per annum for the last five years I like the fact that the CEO and chair adding to their holdings over the last 12 months but I agree with Henry it's going now we're just going to bounce around so it's a hold okay a hold for good old now we can say it with certainty a GL all right let's get to the next on the list and that is ampol ald this one's for Russell Russell thanks for writing in if you are out there and you would like to have a question answered you can just go to osbiz.co/callpix and I don't know if it's because I said something but we did have a supporter contribution come in just in the last few minutes a very very very big thank you to Basil for doing so really really appreciate it all right let's get to that stock which was ampol you know I mean we're putting money more money into having more refined fuels on sure it's a matter of national security and someone say a matter of urgency as well so does that necessarily Andrew mean that ampol's future is great yeah and thanks Basil we do appreciate your support yeah I do like ampol we like to back in March when Henry and I looked at it and we said I from memory I think we said it was by and it's up about 10% since then so all bit we've had upgrades relating to their margin because obviously they're making more money by virtue of what's going on at the moment from that margin perspective and I also note consensus has gone up by about 10% as well consensus is now around $37 a share it's not that aggressively price it's trading only at around 14 times earnings the market is 16 times earnings and we've got forecast earnings per share growth of around 17% per annum so the old peg ratio you're trying to buy companies whose PEs are less than the forecast earnings per share growth the year 14 forecast earnings per share growth is 17 it's on that basis it's cheap so yeah look I don't mind it I don't see this middle least thing going away any time soon despite the contradictory text that seem to be coming through or messages that seem to be coming through on social media at three in the morning so I'm for the time being I think it remains on okay so that is a buy for ample do you see sort of the move to EV's Henry is some sort of an existential threat to these these companies have you seen the Ferrari I did it's blue right it's horrible well I'm not a car person so I can't comment with any certainty but I do hear that they're quieter because it really bugs me when there's a Ferrari going by in the city here and it's like does really get bugs you it's absolutely a glorious car guy though it's just it's so evocative it's passionate it's Italy geez anyway forgive me Henry I am I'm a little lost anyway ampop what I what I found interesting and I don't know whether this is it happens in to Wumba but before the Gulf War before we saw the government move to secure supplies out of Singapore and before we saw the tax the excite tax being halved on petrol there was a massive volatility and big trading range between petrol stations in terms of what the price was now when I drive around and I do a little bit not in my electric vehicle but when I drive around in my old fashioned 20-year-old car petrol is pretty much the same everywhere you go every petrol station is about the same I don't know whether that's into Wumba or whether it's just round here in Sydney and the North but it is you know this usually quite a big spread but it has been the same for a long long time and I know everyone talks about the big fuel crisis and the petrol crunch but it's a $1.86 a liter for the cheap stuff which is pretty good all things considered so you know I don't know what that affects amphole in terms of their refining margins etc going forward they've obviously had some issues with a little we do have only two refineries in Australia which is pretty crackers but you know they are very expensive to build they are old as well so they do require quite an expense there it's you know I think this is kind of a bit of an oil play at the moment and you would have to think that if there is peace then we would see the oil price come down and if the oil price comes down I suspect we would see amphole come down as well whether that's right or wrong but it is a sentiment thing so I'm expecting and hoping I guess that we do get some sort of resolution we do get ships passing through the straight and we do get oil back down to maybe 80/85 for Brent Crude as opposed to banging on the door of a hundred in which case I suspect we will see amphole full so for me it's probably just at the moment I guess with all that's happening is it's a bit of a sell I think I'll be taking the profits from the Gulf War and just banking them for the time being we'll see if this shows up on the internet but you know I drive a 19 year old car Henry although it is not in the same class as yours we'll leave it there and a huge thank you to Ken to Ken it for also becoming an Osbus supporter wonderful this is fun maybe we can keep it going through this hour it's the top right hand corner if you're screen guys I'm starting to feel like I'm on public television doing a little bit of a telephone but really really Ken like that's awesome we really do appreciate it okay so that's amphole for Russell let's get on to the next ETF and that's the fire trail Australia small companies fund this one's for Trevor who's a regular viewer he's looking for a small cap ETF great thanks for telling us so he's in the market what are your thoughts on FM as FSML and the broader macro environment I suppose for small caps including you know this higher interest rate scenario that we're still dealing with even despite that inflation rate today I'll start with you on this one Andrew because you are what we call the ETF whisperer thanks for the day and again thank you Kenneth and we're gonna turn this into a telephone just keep on coming through we're just gonna take it over the show until people stop actually I wouldn't say that because people may actually stop today - I think you can give it a try. - Maybe I can have a 15 year old car at the end of it. I'm kidding. We'll keep the lights on here and keep delivering all of this amazing content. - Indeed, FSML. So look, it's, so I guess if we take it back a step as we said before, it's Australian small companies. Australian small companies have gone through quite a period of time of no love. I know that the Australian market is going through no love, but equally so small caps of equally gone through a period of small love. And if we look, again, I go back to the speed report that I just referenced before and the fact that 87% of active managers for large caps fail to meet the market. The small company number is significantly there. So I don't have it to hand, but going from memory, it's something like 60% of Australian small cap managers fail to meet their benchmark, which in other words, means that there's 40% that do. There's much more opportunity for active managers to make money people like FireTrial in this small company's space. And they actually have done pretty well in doing so. Their performance over the last 12 months, they're up around, as we can see, 25% per annum and over the last five years, they've returned around 9% per annum. It's a pretty concentrated portfolio. They're holding 30 to 60 holdings. I think there's around 67 at the moment. And they've got companies like Mennells 260, they've got GemLife and they've also got Regis Healthcare. They certainly got caught on the wrong side of some trades there towards the end of last year when the SaaS apocalypse started, things like Live360, they weren't Roberts and Crusoe to be clear. There were certainly plenty of others in that space as well, but certainly very smart guys and girls. The other thing I like about FireTrial is they're very strong on that education piece as well. They've got good articles, they have a podcast that you can subscribe to as well. So in the context of making sure that they're keeping investors not only their clients, but in the market in general, doing some really good work relating to that investor education piece, which I think is really critical from a market point of view. So I like them. I'm happy to have it as a buy, but my caveat would be that if small caps, sorry, large caps rather are struggling, then you generally also tend to find that small caps will struggle as well. So from a broader market, thematic point of view, we really need to see that broader Aussie market, that ASX200 pick up. But even when it does turn, these are the smart guys and girls in which to do it. So I'm happy to support it. It's the time. Great. Thank you. Now, Henry, I know that you've done a bit of work on this one as well. What does your take? Yeah, I have. I mean, the end of the day, if you want to underperform an index, you buy a passive ETF because you will always underperform because of the management fees. If you want to have some outperformance, which is what these guys do, then you buy something like this. And I've known Patrick Hodgins for a long, long time. We used to work together at McCory and he's a very smart guy. And over the life of this fund, because it has been around for a lot longer than it has been an ETF. This strategy has been around for a lot longer than it has been as an ETF. It's up. What is it? 11 and nearly 12% above the benchmark. So that is our performance. That is what you're getting. You're getting the smarts of these people. Matthew Fisk runs this and he's doing a pretty good job. It did suffer, as Andrew says. It sort of topped out around $2.40. And then it has suffered during the war and the SaaS apocalypse, et cetera. They have got a number of themes in their portfolio. They're overweight Australia. They're overweight resources, which is good and bad. I'm hoping they're overweight some of the good resources. And they are underweight global earners, according to their last investment briefing. But as Andrew says, they're very good at communication. They're very good at podcasts. They're very good at keeping the market informed. That is fantastic. They've got nothing to hide. It is transparent. If you want to play the small company's space with some active managers that have outperformed over a long period of time and quality, then I think this is a good one. Now, there were some stories around a week or so ago. I think I saw in the fin review that there was some some passive money. There were some big fund managers moving active money to passive. And they did suggest that maybe fire trail was going to be losing some of that funds under management. That doesn't really affect this ETF. This ETF is just an investment vehicle rather than a fund. So there's $530 million under management with this fund. It obviously, that affects the fees that fire trail can make out of that. And that flows to pinnacle because they are one of the owners of fire trail. But I like this one. Small caps in the US have been going absolutely gangbusters. If there is some rate relief from the RBA, then small caps will continue to do a little better. And when you look at the banking sector, which is overvalued still, perhaps. And the healthcare space and various other spaces, I think this one does hold some good promise. So I'd be a buyer of this one. I like the fire trail people. And look, that's high praise coming from an investor. That knows quite a lot about small caps himself. So thank you. And a huge thank you to Anthony, our latest awesome is supporter. What a legend coming in and supporting what we do here. It's free to sign up, free to watch all's biz. But it does actually cost quite a bit to do what we do. So a huge thank you. Really appreciate it. Okay, let's just review what we've learned in this past half hour. Webjet, bit of a difference between my guests here, a buy for Henry. Kind of thinks it's doing things well. It's a hold though. Andrew says there's just too many moving parts. So the beta shares emerging market ETF passive versus the Venek emerging market ETF active. You've got Henry saying the Venek one is how he prefer it. It's just a hold for him though. It's a preferred passive ETF for Andrew as far as passive investing. But he would actually put a buy on the EMKT, which is the Venek one. Hope that's clear for you. Rush me. All right, APA group. It is a hold for both of my guests. Henry says it will make you rich. Although Andrew likes that the CEO is adding to his holding. That's the same story for AGL, but he reckons it's going nowhere. So it's a hold for that might be in it for a yield. It's not exciting enough for Henry. It's a hold. And pull again, these guys see it differently. So excuse me, it's a buy for Andrew. It is a sell or take profits for Henry because if we do see some resolution in the Middle East, he reckons it will just move in tandem with the oil price. So could see the price come down. And FSMC, which is a fire trail small cap CTF. It's a buy for both of my guests and you just heard what they had to say about that one. Thank you for all of our new Ausbezz supporters. We really appreciate it. We are gearing up for our next investment committee meeting. Not too late to catch the old one. It's up online. So we've got a bit of cash. Spent some though last month on Clinievel Farma and Delta Lithium. I'll have to do my research and make sure we know how much those two have moved since we put them in the portfolio. We kind of have exposure to McCory group though. It's still though at a pretty healthy, I'd say, 6.1%. So still have 7.7% cash to spend. We'll be bringing you the new investment committee episode on Monday. So looking forward to that. So far the fund is up by 30 and a half percent. That's since the 1st of March 2022. So as I said earlier, the causebiz.co/callpix to get your picks in and join the party, become an Ausbezz supporter. Just go to the top right hand corner of your screen. In a world of market noise and uncertainty, a disciplined approach to investing that is more than ever. Wealthy and Wise brings team invests value investing playbook to Ausbezz, unpack how the macro environment impacts business analysis. They have this loss of version. This film is doing what it realises losses. Even if those shares are doing really badly and are not going to recover. Put similar stocks head to head and make a call on which one wins. The company whose share price is doubled while the earnings of shrunk. That's a get out of jail free card and you should be taking it. Plus, ask Gutein Invest experts to deep dive into a stalker topic of your choice just to email us your questions. Live from 1 p.m. every Wednesday. Wealthy and Wise is your guide to value investing powered by Tame Invest. Lovely to have you here with us. Coming up, 9 Entertainment, Aurora, AUB Group, Pexa and Seek. Let's get to it. Shall we? 9 Entertainment. It's for Otis. Otis, thanks for watching. In the past 6 months, 9 share prices down by about 15%. Tough business. This media gig. 9 though has Stan, I suppose, behind it. Sports rights as well. What do you make of what the future might hold in a tougher economy for any sea, Henry? Thanks for the question, Otis. It's been a lot of up and downs with 9 Entertainment. It's very hard to get excited about free to wear TV. I must have been. It's not something I watch. But it's certainly tough out there in Adland. I do know a few people in Adland and it is quite tough out there in Adlining course. Dan is one of the the big drivers here and that is all about content but you know we've got the world cup coming up so there's going to be a lot of people looking at that as opposed to streaming services and you know as you say in the dean there is a you know there's headwinds in the economy and people do cut services I know that you know from the personal point of you we are Stan subscribers and when I look at it I think you know what I'm not sure what is on there that I'm watching we used to sign up because of yellowstone and there's so many yellowstone spin-offs now it's quite scary and we watched one of the latest ones and I just went you know what yeah I think Stan might get the chop so they've just completed the inclusion of QMS media so that is keeping the market I guess relatively buoyant and optimistic about the future but it's hard in this economic environment to see really what what the driver is going to be in terms of a kick higher so you know it's fallen from a dollar 20 it got down to the sort of 85 cents is back up to 94 cents I think here it is is most definitely a hold you know it's not bad in terms of it's yield but there's no franking and it's just a tough environment I think to be a media company so I know again I think there's better things elsewhere yeah okay so hold at best we've got an overweight from Morgan Stanley that points to that QMS outdoor acquisition is potentially being a driver we've also got an outperform from McCory and I think it's just pointing mostly to valuation I mean is there anything in which this would make you consider this stock from a value perspective Andrew? no no it wouldn't I sort of you know you're I think media is tough at the moment if you're a quality small startup niche yes player but have to resort to a tell us on okay continue generously you need to give generously but if you are sort of a try and be all those things for everyone I'll give you a very quick compare and contrast so I have a soon to be 14 going you're going on 40 year old in our household and I can tell you she has never watched free to ear TV of her angel of her own choice that's pretty telling I remember when I was growing up back in the day that everyone would sort of you know sit down to watch the six o'clock news at night that is not a thing people still watch it I'm not suggesting they don't but the power free to ear has absolutely been disintermediated by the media by the internet rather so yeah I think as an underlying you know foundational premise free to ear it's a tough place to be thank you captain obvious one of their drivers of course was a random aim that's now been sold to Henry's point people when we ever say in some stand subscription as well I don't know why and thank you for reminding me that needs to be cancelled so I can think a lot of reasons not to be there so to Nadeen's starting point will surely on a p of 9 if we know that the market average is 16 there's got to be value there will yes but to my point if the underlying dynamics are changing and their readership viewership etc is diminishing I just it's a hold at best I know consensus is at all 30 nothing even that's aspirational the way to play these styles of businesses you wait for a federal election with his heaps of money going to be spent and the share price will spike and that's the time to be trading it but otherwise you know for the other two and three quarter years it's an avoid so at best it's a hold all right McCory Morgan Stanley overweight outperform UBS is a neutral on the stock and drum roll please welcome to the family Peter Peter has become an auspice supporter thank you so much Peter you've made my day I swear I'll have a smile on the dial for the rest of it okay let's get to stock number seven and that's Aurora ORA for Darren so it's packaging it did that silver glass acquisition in Europe it didn't go swimmingly at least at the beginning and I mean the reality is is that we're not selling as much booze or you know no one is selling as much booze as they they used to so yeah when you look at Aurora Andrews anything that sort of puts it on the the by list or the watch list at the very least oh certainly it's on a watch list I mean seeing the share price down 29% for the year and again there are there are reasons for that as you pointed out before despite my best efforts to try and keep that packaging business going with the alcohol consumption to choke for my GP then yeah there's certainly under immense pressure that acquisition in Europe was poorly timed obviously you know the tariff well it was a tariff issue which there's no longer a tariff issue but still impacted their business you're being asked to pay just 10 times earnings so we're back to that valuation question that you asked me before but I just think that from a business point of view they're under a stress the debt load is up the key thing to me though is that chart is just looking awful and the fact that short interest people betting that the share price is going to fall is actually going up so you've got a double negative that share price that's going from top right to bottom left and people betting that it's going to go on further so there's plenty of reasons not to be buying it again if you are lucky enough to be buying it I think it's a whole that I think it's going to go broke on you but are there other places that you could be placing your money like we spoke about before emerging markets or sort of that space because there's more money to be made there yes we'll eventually turn around for sure but what's the short term driver who knows and we need to see that short interest debating so whilst that people are betting that share price is going to fall there's no reason to be there it's a hold but Henry a rural interestingly because of that saverglass business was one of the first to warn on the impact coming from the Middle East crisis so presumably if you put the same logic to ample to aurora is that you could see if we see some sort of a resolution a little bit of an uptick maybe even a spike in the share price or am I just glitgrasping at straws here I think you're grasping at straws to be honest and a dainn I'm just wondering if if I sing do you think we can get some more money for the telephone in which case I'm quite happy to do uh we'll have to take an online poll before we get you singing on air all right we don't want to chase people away we're trying to attract people okay well of course you sing me sing he's been to one my g's I know you're saying good so saverglass what a disaster that has been I mean buying a specialty glass business off the French who would have thought that would turn into a bit of a disaster they have a problem in terms of getting that that product because these guys make specialty glass all those weird bottles of exotic liquors that people buy around the world that saverglass is kind of bread and butter business and they have a facility in the middle east and obviously that has been affected by the fact they can't get any of that glass out of the Middle East and as a result they've had to shift production to Mexico and that is a bit of a workaround but it also is probably more expensive as well and they did have a bigish downgrade on the back of that and to be honest even before the downgrade saverglass was looking as an unnot really saverglass at all it was more like spender glass than saverglass and it was certainly not particularly good and the downgrade was just compounding the problems that these guys have had they still got problems now even if we see the settlement of some sort of peace deal done between Donald Trump and the Iranians that's fine that will affect the oil price quite quickly but it won't affect the supply chain of that quickly there's a massive backlog of ships to come through it's not easy to shift stuff just at a moment now this you can't just whack it on a ship and that actually goes it does take time so I think you know the problems there are going to remain I can't see too many reasons to be buying this one to be honest we are consuming less alcohol and if you have a global downturn in some respects you know and the exotic bottles the exotic alcohol that you know the those sorts of bottles you know they had problems before the war I don't think those problems are going to go away quickly so for me it's certainly an avoid I wouldn't be there there's no point okay so it's a sell all right let's get to the next on the list I'm just looking at the time now even having such a good time let's go to the next which is AUB group this one's for Belinda Henry what do you think byholder sale today based on yeah a lot going on out there in the macro there's a lot going on the macro these guys are insurance brokers and you know they had a bid from what was it a Swedish P from EQT 45 bucks and they walked when I waited their back and ball and went home and the stock collapsed it sort of troughed at around sort of 23 bucks and has been picking up and it was one of those stocks that looked as if it was going to be affected by the SaaS McGadden or the SaaS apocalypse in terms of insurance brokers being taken out of the loop and there was a lot of focus on some of those AI products and those AI models you know appealing direct to customers that could just type in you know what's the cheapest insurance it would give you the answer and then give you the link and give you the quote and give you everything you needed in which case AUB was going to struggle they had have clawed their way back and the recent report was somewhat positive. So that is a little bit on the positive side. I think the jury's still out about whether it will affect the business, but obviously there is some corporate appeal or there was some corporate appeal. I'd probably put a slight tentative buy on this one. It could push back up towards $28.29 with a bit of a tailwind. So a tentative buy, but if you've got it, certainly hold it. I wouldn't be selling it here. And the Swedish guys, they obviously saw some value at $45, but clearly not enough to proceed with a bid, even if they revised it down, which was always my base case scenarios, was that they were going to revise it down to $38, but that didn't happen. But I think it's a small buy here. Got it. Were you nodding in agreement there, Andrew? I was just showing that I was engaged and I'm not an AI. No, it's a hold. Not that I disagree with Henry that often, but in this particular case, it's a hold. And again, SaaS apocalypse is certainly what caused it to come undone. It didn't cause the Swedes to walk away, albeit they're probably grateful that they did, because the jury's out on this stuff at the moment. So I mean, solid business. They've got 500,000 plus clients. They've got well over $3 billion in gross written premiums that got a 17% margin. So it ticks all the boxes. Consensus, I'd note, still at $34, which is interesting considering the share process. We can see it's about 26 bucks. And again, one of Andrew's favourites is the chair and C are adding to their holding. So we do inside a buying. So that's a positive as well. But until we get a clearer read as to what's happening relating to these large language models, there's certainly probably more uncertainty. I like the fact that that share price chart was ticking up a little bit, but there's still plenty of fundamental macro things in play. So it's a hold. Hold for AUB. All right, let's get to the next on the list. And that is Pexa. So Pexa has a real strangle hold on property transactions, mortgage settlements, and the like. And I should have read up a little bit more deeper on this prior to getting on. But there's been some sort of a change to with one of its very, very few competitors actually being taken out of the market by the ASX. So does that sort of secure Pexa's strangle hold? It's really no competition in the space. This one's for Simon. Andrew, sorry. Sorry, you looked like AI there for a second. I got confused. Pexa. The screen froze. As part of our telephone, we've had four people donate or support in the last 50 minutes. Let's make it five before we finish. Let's make my deans die. So Pexa, look, I mean, again, that chart certainly tells a pretty compelling, dearest at damning story. They aren't doing such a great job at the moment, despite the fact that they've got a bit of a strangle hold, in part due to market conditions. I mean, we've seen that most recent budget update being pretty unfriendly relating to negative gearing and investment properties. Transaction volumes are up around 7%, which is great. But where I think the market is unhappy in the deans is that they were tracking it about a 13% increase in transactions previously. And so that is now moderating both here in Australia and also in the UK. You're being asked to pay 30 times earnings, so you're paying a premium for a monopoly style business. But on forecast earnings per share growth of just 3% per annum. So a growth business price is a growth business. But in yet, it's only sort of attracting at 3% earnings per share growth. You as a shareholder, if it's sticking money in a bank, you can get 5%, and they're only going to drive three. So I think that's the market voting with its feet. It's a hold. OK. It is ASX selling 49% stake in simply. It sold its 49% stake in simply. So again, I guess abandoning it is what I'm being told, walking away from the only platform capable of challenging pecs as dominance. Dominance does not always translate into share price momentum as we can see their Henry byholder sell. It's certainly not translated to profit either last two or three years they haven't made a profit, which is not particularly good. As Andrew says, they are expensive. They do have a strangle hold in Australia. They have just entered last year the UK market through a deal with net West, which I guess could bear some fruit. But we know that the budget changes here have dampened investor interest in property. So that's probably going to weigh on it. It's probably too late to sell it. It's had an almighty crash in the last year or so from 17 bucks down $10.70. So I think you missed the boat when it comes to selling it. I noticed that the short interest has been building up as well. So yeah, there's a lot of things not to like about this one. But it's probably at these kind of prices. It's a hold. But I would say that there's probably more, a little bit more negativity to come in this one. So it's a hold if you've got it. But if you haven't got it, there's again, there's other things to play with elsewhere. OK, so let's get to the next on the list to see if this might be one-- I don't know. It's Sikh. It's for Jessica. Sikh has had such a terrible run this year. Year to date down by close to 50%. So there's one of those companies that Andrew indicated would be chatting about that's down half, because there just is no enthusiasm for tech names here. Locally, this one, it's been a bit vexed for quite some time, just never really caught the momentum that we've seen in other tech names, even prior to the sell off. So what's going on with Sikh? I mean, is it in a good value sort of play, Henry? I'd be nice to get some more money in. Please give generously. I guess at the end of the day, the three stocks that I call the old school platform stocks have been around since the internet was born, the Sikhs, the car groups, and the RAA groups have all struggled. And everyone knows my view on RAA. It's been similar with car and similar to some extent with Sikh. We don't know what AI is going to do to the jobs market. We don't know what it's going to do to the business model of companies like Sikh. They do say that it's going to improve things, efficiencies, et cetera, but the share price is telling you otherwise. It's hard to get enthusiastic about this one. I have to say, despite the fact that it has been a dog we are heading into end of tax year selling in terms of tax loss selling. So I would imagine the next month or so, there's still going to be pressure on this one. So it's hard to get excited. It's an avoid for me, even when the US tech stocks are going nuts, Sikh, car, and RAA are still trending downwards. And I don't think that's going to end anytime soon. Avoid Sikh or sell. That would be Andrew, what do you think for Sikh? What looks like a duck and a quacks like a duck, it's usually a duck and a ding. It's a dog. You're being asked, oh, could be a dog and identifies as a dog. If you look at the current share price and the PE, rather, we're back to 17 times earnings. So that in itself is certainly a positive. But having said that, I guess I just sort of look at the fact that this Sasterpok ellipse, and again, I know that we've been using this all throughout the last out. But it is a thing. It is absolutely a thing. Consensus is $24. We've got plenty of uncertainties to how these LLMs, these large language models are going to be impacting relating to these business models. They made a bucket load of money, disintermediating the Fairfax businesses, the rivers of gold, along with car sales, along with realestate.com, they're back 20 years ago. And we have a look at how the share prices of all those businesses are going cars. I was just holding it relatively OK. But equally so realestate.com is in the world of paying as is seek plenty of moving parts. No real interest. It's not value at this stage. It's probably only fairly priced. So it remains a hold. OK. Thank you. And thank you, Mary. You are part of the Osbus family officially. Thank you so much for your support. We absolutely love making the content that we do. We really hope that we are providing value to you on your investment journey. And yeah, you've just made all of our days here a little bit brighter. So really appreciate you becoming part of the Osbus contributor family, Peter Anthony Kenbezzle. And now just in the nick of time, Mary, if I can ask one more favor, as I set off the top, this didn't mean to become a telephone. But really, if you tell people about us, the more the barrier, the strength in numbers, we-- yeah, we're really, really pleased. That was a bit of fun, too. Thank you. All right, so let's just learn what we have here for nine. It's a hold for both of my guests at Best says Andrew Aurora. A hold for Andrew. It's an avoid or a sell for Henry. A U B, it's a buy for Henry. And it's a hold for Andrew. Pexa, it's a hold for both of my guests, the neither of them. We're really very complimentary about it and seek if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck. duck, it's a dog, according to my guests. Tough times, how the mighty have fallen. So again, thanks to all of our new Osbus contributors. We really hope you find value in what you do. And we've got another one just in at the bell. Andrew. Andrew, thank you so. Hey, Andrew. Thank you. All right, guys, I have loved being with you. Thank you for joining us. We'll see you soon. Thank you for watching. Thanks you for being a contributor. Stay with us. Explore the Centuria Sydney CBD Prime Office Fund at centuria.com.au. [Music]