the call: Wednesday 20 May

[MUSIC] The call is brought to you by Centuria, an ASX-listed property fund manager with $21 billion in assets under management. Want to diversify beyond equities? Explore the Centuria Sydney CBD Prime Office Fund at centuria.com.au. [MUSIC] Hi there, welcome to the call on this Wednesday afternoon. It's lovely to be here with you. My name is Nadine Blaney and over the next hour we'll take a look at 10 stocks in detail. We'll get a fundamental and technical perspective on those stocks, lucky you. And we will begin with a stock of the day. But first, let me introduce you to our guests. I have to my right Jonathan Takadina joining us from NPC markets to my left. Michael Gabel from Fairmont, everybody. I know your name, of course I know your name. All right, look guys, it was a little bit of a very short rally yesterday. I mean, giving up all those gains today. So is this just like what is this telling us to you about the nature of the market right now? Nature of the market. I mean, I've been cautious for a while and it was just mainly energy. But the fact that the budgets out now, we've got those tax increases. One of the things that I do on the highlight is that we are now in the highest tax capital regime in the world. And capital can flow and leave basically. So what would you want to start a business here? What would you want to innovate? What would you, I mean, like granted, we do have a lot of resources here and great weather. So that's why people do want to live here. But in terms of capital, it just shows that the market has been pricing that you want to invest elsewhere. So I am very cautious on the ASX in general. And you probably see the hazard going through the 10 stocks today. Okay, are you as cautious? So are you still bargaining hunting? Yeah, well, I mean, interestingly, I was looking at some charts this morning. So obviously so far this financial year, our market is pretty much dead flat. But if you break it down into the sectors, you've got sort of the material sectors gone up, very nicely energy, very nicely. And then on the downside, you've got healthcare and the technology sector. So this huge divergence between sectors, even though the market's dead flat. So if you're in resources energy, you're doing really well. If you're underweight those sectors and you're just sitting in healthcare and technology, then you're suffering. So it's very much a stock pickers market. So there has been this rotation, this financial year, out of some sectors into the others. I think that will continue. And I do believe that it's a stock pickers market. So ultimately, at the index level, very frustrating our market looks pathetic, but there will, there's opportunities. You just need to go looking now. Okay. And I pause because you never sit to my left. I've realized. Creature of habit. Let's get to our stock of the day. And it is James Hardy, after it posted a lower than expected drop in annual profit, as unfavorable weather, did disrupt construction across key markets. Inflation and affordability pressures also weighing on housing activity. Group net sales rose 25% to 4.84 billion US, leading to net income of 104 million US dollars. Costs relating to the Aztec restructuring and asbestos compensation also weighed on the result. Fourth quarter sales, though rose 45% year on year, to 1.4 billion US while quarterly earnings of 1.27 billion were above expectations. James Hardy says it is not assuming a broader housing market recovery in FY27, forecasting 2027 net sales between 5.25 billion US and 5.4 billion US roughly speaking. So shares down in tandem with the market today. Let's get a view from my experts. I'll just start on my right Jonathan, techadena. James Hardy, because a really interesting scenario when you look at housing in the United States, particularly, you know, we start to see rate cuts as opposed to rate hikes there. Rate cuts, no, but the bond market is not saying that, though. That's the main problem there over there. So James Hardy, great results, but it's just in the wrong sector at the moment. Obviously the bond market has spoken. You look at the tens and thirties in the US, they've broken out the new highs. Same thing in Japan, same thing in Australia. So it just means cost of funding, cost of money, cost of borrowing has increased all over the world. And it just means that if you want to borrow to build, you are restricted there. And so what that means is James Hardy's caught in that vortex. People just have less money to spend on housing. And even those results are great results considering the tough conditions. And it's been run really well. They're just in a tough spot at the moment. So for me, I don't see that changing anytime soon. I think this rising inflation, rising yield, bond yield, and higher rates in volume continues. And so I think James Hardy continues at the bottom end of the range. So I want to see some sort of reversal in that in the bond movements before I want to go into that sector. So for me, just to hold at this stage, but yeah, well run company, especially in the tough conditions. Okay, so A-Hole, considering what's happening with bonds, which we didn't talk about to start, you know, is a good value, though, because even if you put aside some of the corporate governance issues, if you put aside this Aztec acquisition, it's looking pretty cheap. Yeah, I think given the headwinds, you'll have opportunities where it can get cheaper. So obviously it's, you know, it's very cyclical. The question is, are we at the bottom of the cycle? You know, it hasn't been oversold. You know, is it in a situation where it can't get any worse? And I think it's clear that, you know, we are entering a period for the reasons that John of the mention where it can get worse. So interest rates could start to hit higher in the US. That would be even though we're seeing what's happening in the bond market and we could sit here and say, okay, well, it looks like they might go up. I think if they actually do go up, that'll be a bit of a shock to the system. Input costs are going up. I mean, the result itself wasn't too bad. I think sales were a bit under expectations. Earnings were a little bit above. I don't think anyone had great expectations anyway for James Hardy. But I don't think we've reached that sort of bottoming out phase yet. So yeah, it could get cheaper. So I'd even lean just towards a cell and just look for other opportunities. So a cell in a hold for our stock of the day being James Hardy. Jax is the tech account for that one, obviously. All right. So the first five stocks that you've told us you'd like us to review in the energy sector, boss energy, also Brookside energy. Cole's group and the consumer staples part of the market, Parenty Global and BHP. So a servicer of the mines and the big miner itself. Let's get to the first stock picked by you. That's boss energy. This is for Mason Michael. I'd like to start with you on this one because you have been very favorable on the energy complex. You have been favorable on uranium as well, but is boss its own beast? It is its own beast. So they have issues. I mean, just in terms of production issues, I mean, we recently heard from the company a little bit disappointing in terms of their recent production. But the reason why this is underperforming the other stocks in the sector is because they're in the middle of a feasibility study for one of their mines. So we could see that when they announced that in July last year, it took a massive hit. And then it's just drifted lower ever since then. So I mean, so far, this financial year, if you look at the uranium miners ETF, which is what we're holding, I think that's up about 20% even other producers like Paladin or up about 20% in that period of time. And we could see that boss has gone down. So it's a bit of a coin flip. Yeah, they're going to come out with some nice news and it reverts back up or is it going to disappoint the market? I don't know. So I would rather be out of this as much as I'm super bullish on the sector. I'd rather be out of boss. But what I do is I rotate that money straight away into another uranium miner. If we're not sure which one, the uranium miner's ETF will have your basis covered. Okay. Jonathan, do you see it any differently? Similar. So I remember, I think last month, my head boss was a couple of months back and they came back and sort of re-stated their guidance on production and it bounced from there and I said, oh, the lows are in. By it here and that was that the actual top as well. So on that move and it's fallen back ever since. So what's happened since then is they've actually withdrawn the, I think, 2021, their DFS, which is the definitive feasibility study. They have a new one coming out in September and I guess till that actually happens, the market's kind of in limbo. It's like, okay, so how much is it going to be production-wise? How much can they produce? How much will the cost of production be? And so till that point, it's like let's just wait and see. I'd rather kind of just wait and see. I'm a hold for now on boss, but let's just say it comes back with that study in September and it's a natural mind that can be profitable. It's like, okay, we'll jump back on board. But I think the best one in the space is power them. They can be quite consistent and they're just drifting along with the Uranium price as well. So for me, hold for boss if you are looking in the sector, buy some power them. Why a hold though? If you've just worn the paint already? Yeah, absolutely. So it's just more, okay, well, you've taken a hit. Miles will just wait and see on the actual study results. Okay. So I'm using the technology today. I'm actually a pen and paper without typing this out. So excuse me if you see me looking down. I feel very out of sorts with Michael on my left and just having my laptop will survive. All right, let's get to Brookside Energy. And let's not forget that we've got technical analysis here as well as these guys know a lot fundamentally. So they'll add it all in as they see fit. Jonathan, I'll start with you on Brookside. This one's for Edward. I don't know if he already owns it or is looking to get in. What do you think? I had a look at it. So it's in the Energy Sector. It's a shell oil play in Oklahoma. And they're drilling into the Anadaco basin. So they're actually producing, they've been producing for since 2021. And they're actually drilling out here. So it's just more of a case of it is an energy play. But the problem is because it's such a small market cap, you can just see it's drifted back. And I'm guessing it's on pretty light volume as well. So you're at the whims of whoever are the major shareholders in there. Like one of them just has to exit for whatever reason. You're at the whims of that. That being said, I mean like if it does bottom out here at say at the 45 set level and starts to pick up, I want to, you know, I wouldn't mind some exposure to it because I am bullish energy like Michael. I do think that energy's been underpriced for a very, very long time. And now the fact that we've seen an elongated dispute in the Middle East shows that energy will have to reap price here. And I think $100 is the new base level in crude oil going forward. So we have to rewrite the producers within that timeframe. I think I've got an actual analyst report here. They've got an upward target of $80 for the Battle of the World. So their whole target has been based on 60. They've raised it to 80, but I think it's actually more like 100 going forward. So with that, I wouldn't buy it right here. Like if I had to buy energy, you can just see woodside or even Santos is breaking out here. So I'd rather be in those names. But it's an interesting play. And I, you know, with my buying summit at support, but for now, just a whole. Okay. Michael, how about you? Yeah, it is a very small, small one. It's not enough. Followed before I think it's got a $40, $50 million market cap. Obviously, as a sort of explorer developer, they're going to continue to raise money over time. So that's the usual thing you need to bear in mind. I mean, it does look like it's sort of bottoming out and improving. So, you know, if you're into the speckies, yeah, I'd rate it as a hold. I don't think it's going to do too much just yet. So I mean, energy in general, yes, we're very bullish on oil, huge amount of, well, a massive lack of investment over the past 10, 15 years in oil and gas has got us to this situation. And the war in Iran is only accelerating the problems. So, you know, the US has been, you know, they've had the biggest weekly draw on their strategic reserve this week. It's probably almost nothing left now trying to keep prices low. So we're very close to oil prices just breaking higher again. That straight of hormones is not reopening to the same extent that it was before. We have to be realistic about that. So, energy prices will go up before the war. Yeah, energy was the most under-owned sector out there. And it's still under-owned. I think the consensus apart from, you know, smart guys like Jonathan is that, it will all be over at some point and oil will fall back down to, you know, low prices like 60, 80, Donaldson barrel. That's a consensus view. So what that's telling us is there's still a lack of investment in oil. It's still under-owned. When that money starts to flow into energy, it will firstly flow into the big cap. So look at our market straight away, Woodside. You know, maybe Santos. They will start to move first, just like any other time when we get, you know, the start of a new trend. So companies like Brookside, I think, will eventually go up. But they're not going to be the first ones that the money goes to. So, yeah, look at the hold if you're into specs. But I think if you want to capture, I think what will be an explosive move pretty soon. Just by Woodside even now, it looks really good. Just by the big caps, they'll be the ones that the money goes to first. And by the big caps, all right. So that is Brookside. Joshi, here, did you know becoming an Osby's contributor gets your stocks straight to the front of the queue at the call? And to the expert of your choice, if a big if you become an Osby's contributor. It's our small way of saying thanks for your support. The link to become a contributor is in the show notes. And we'd love it if you could leave us a review as well. Thanks for listening. Let's get to, I guess, a bit of a shift away from energy and take a look at Cole's group. This one is for Harper. Harper, thank you for writing in. If you would like a stock cover, if you're watching or listening, Osby's.co/callpix. If you would like, you can tell us if you already own it or if you're looking to buy some more or, you know, what your situation is. No, last name's, first name's only. You don't have to, but it sometimes helps the conversation. So, for the premise of this show, if you did not own calls, if you were Harper, Jonathan and you didn't own calls, is there a reason to buy it now? Yes, there is. So, I think money is flowing into the defensive sector at the moment. And then they also just had the atropalcy loss. Yeah. So they actually lost. But the thing is, the market just doesn't like uncertainty. So, even though the market had already price in it, they were going to lose. The key was what, how big was the fight? They came out with $100 million. They're like, "Okay, what's that? A month or so with the earnings?" They're like, "Okay, we can cover that." And then it's bounced from that news and what was done the same. So, what it just means is that the uncertainty overhang is gone now. I think money keeps flowing into defensive sectors. Not cheap though. I mean, like it's at 23p. And obviously it's a joeopoly here in Australia. So, I just think money keeps flowing into calls and all these going forward. And they head back to the highs from here. So, yeah, I do think there is a reason to buy calls here. I don't think it's like it rockers up and becomes a 10-bagger. But, yeah, I think it gets back to those recent highs around, I think, $26 from here. So, yeah, I think there's a trade on for calls. Okay, there is a buy. First buy of the session. There's a trade on. What do your charts tell you? Yeah, I mean, in terms of the chart, it's back to a support level. It looks like it's, I mean, it is pretty volatile. It has been volatile in the past several weeks. It does look like it can lift higher to those recent peaks. So, I agree with Jonathan on that. But, it's not enough for me to want to hold it. Yeah, I do also agree that it is getting a bit expensive. So, money may well flow into these defensive. But, for me, if I want to be defensive, I'd rather just sit in cash for a period of time. I do think there's better opportunities out there. So, you know, six months from now, maybe you haven't lost any money on calls. But, yeah, I think that, you know, as I mentioned at the beginning of the show, there's big divergences in the market. I want to be hunting those ones that are outperforming. I don't know if you're going to get a bigger performance in in calls, even though it may well lift up a couple of bucks from here. So, on that basis, I'd say, yeah, look, it's at best to hold, but probably a sell just for other things. You're calling it a sell or an avoid if you, because the premise was, you don't own it already. Just on that cash. So, you're not afraid to sit in cash. Do you have, you know, clients in a lot of cash, just waiting for those opportunities or how do you play it? We have sold a few things over the past week. Got triggered out of some trailing stops. I think we took some profits in what we have, mineral resources. I look at PLS. So, we've raised a little bit of cash. Yeah, and I'll just wait for opportunities. You? Yeah, well, I've been sitting on quite a bit of cash for about four or five weeks. And, you know, as the SAP just broke it, then you guys, you know, someone will call and say, "Well, why are we doing something there?" And I'm just like, just wait, just wait. So, yeah, being cautious and seeing someone playing your cash. Okay. Let's get to the next stock on the list. This one is Perenti Global. Who would like to start for Perenti Global? I don't always need to be. in charge. Okay, well I'll give it a shot. So, Perennial won a contract with Bill Vughal for the underground drilling. They're kind of like the go-to in that space. It used to be called Osrull back in a day. Oh yeah. I'm showing you my age on some of the old names that used to flow around. And there were always one of the leaders. It was always a head of the pack. And I just think there's a massive capex boom within the mining sector. They actually came out with good results at the beginning of the year. And for some reason you just got sold off. I think it was just more. You know, you got washed away with that pullback in golden silver and so that hype around the precious metal space. So, back here at 203 I think it's actually a bargain. And obviously there was that recent win. That was that's what caused the spike up to I think 220. And I actually bought some of those levels and continued to add here at $2. So, I think it heads back to Thorees over time. And it's just my whole thing is that the commodity space, the energy space is the sector where it has been underinvested. And I think it will be continued to grow going forward. Even in this high inflation, so high risk of its environment in stocks in general. So, yeah, for me, Prankse is a buy. And I just like it as the premier underground drilling operator. Prem year. Okay, so that is a buy. I'm not liking this new system here. Drilling operator buy. Okay, we'll just have to wing it, Michael. Yeah, look, I mean, I like the sector where we're holding in our W holdings, which is in the same sector. That's just hit hit new highs. I like the look of ALQ in the center in the sector. Parenty, it looks doesn't look as good as those other two companies. I mean, just in terms of the amount of contract wins recently and contract losses. So, I think that explains why it's had that bit of a dip. I mean, but perhaps as Jonathan pointed out, if they're if they're winning in, you know, winning contracts in the gold sector and the gold prices come down, maybe that's affected it as well. But look, ultimately, it does look like it's sort of bottoming out. It's made a high high and a high low. So, look, I'd be happy to hold it here. This is probably not enough to buy because I do prefer the other two mentioned. But, yeah, I think it's going to recover from here. Good. Okay, great. So, that's Parenty PRN, a few from Michael Gabel and Jonathan Takadena. Let's start with the big end, this segment with the big Australian BHP. I'm going to go technical first for BHP because it has performed so well, but the question always is, is there more in it? Yes, there's a lot more. So, you know, I've noticed the recently, there's been a number of people and BHP was pushing through 50. So, oh, it always hits, you know, selling at 50. So, sell BHP and buy, you know, Promethicus or whatever that's been beaten up. Completely the wrong thing to do in my opinion. Get rid of those tech stocks. This is, you know, we're in this early phase of a commodities bull run. BHP has been, oh, last week, burst through 60. This is a monthly chart. So, if we could look on the far right hand side, we could see that, that break through that key 50 dollar area. And now it's commencing the big run. And I don't think it will be any different to what we saw in the last commodities bull market, which is at the bottom left hand side of the screen. $6 to $36. So, you know, I think, I think it was a couple of days ago, I was reading that Phil King at Regal was predicting that BHP would be over $100 next year and it still be holder, I think he's being conservative. So, I think there is a lot of upside. BHP, I think, is still fairly under owned. But, you know, the fund manager is starting to recognize what's going on. Morgan Stanley, I think, a week ago increased their price target on BHP by $10. So, they've started to make a big jump. There is starting to be a recognition of what's happening with hard assets across the world. So, I think we're in the early stages of the rotation. So, I think there's a lot of upside. So, for me, BHP is a buy in the dip. For us, it's our biggest holding. We got into it around a bit last year when we rotated out of all of those text stocks and much more heavily into resources. So, any dip is buying opportunity. Today's a dip. Today's a buying opportunity. Okay, buying opportunity. Today, what do you think Jonathan? Similar, similar. As Michael said, buy the dip on BHP because it's got more to go. I do believe in the commodities sort of super cycle as well. The Matic, we've got, as I said, higher rates, higher inflation. They've always had the best T1 mines and locations. And obviously, they've got a massive copper exposure. So, if you want to, the hot theme, the Matic is still chips in AI. If you want to play a different way, you can do a buy copper and do a buy BHP as well. So, yeah, there's just plenty in that for it to head on. I'm just adding to Uranium. Absolutely. And then the nickel, it's a pot ash. Well, so, look, that would just step ahead. And when they divested all their mines from, they pretty much got rid of all their T2 and T3 assets and formed South 32. They kept the major assets. And you can just say even then South 32 has done extremely well. So, these ones have always been the premier operators in that space. And I was there for that first ball run. That's when I started in equities. From 2003 to 2008, I thought I was a genius then a GFC hit. But I was just showing my, I do remember that run in BHP. And yeah, we were doing covered calls on BHP's, Zinefx, Osmin or things like that. And I was just like, man, so easy this game. And then the GFC said, "Oh, no, it's actually. " Yeah, you just called it. Everybody learns exactly. You weren't that smart. You were just there at the right time. I think we're going to see something similar in BHP at the moment. So. What about, I mean, do you guys, I know that it's AI and as I said, diversification and everything else, but do you worry at all about global growth prospects and how that could hit some of these big miners when you consider that the straight up arouses still closed? And it doesn't seem to be opening anytime soon. Yeah, absolutely. But I think what BHP has and what the USA has shown their hand on is that they want to start showing off their own supply chains. And so, while there could be growth concerns, the fact that Trump's out there going to look at any type of production within the Northern Americas, they're throwing money at it. So, I think BHP will do well in that space, regardless of what the actual growth prospects are in the world. Yeah, I think too many people are concentrating on the demand side at ignoring the supply side. So, this is very much a supply issue. So, the big commodity cycles are very much a capital cycle. They come about because of the lack of capital, lack of investment over the preceding period 10 or 15 years. And that creates a lack of supply. That's why you get these commodity cycles. It's not because you suddenly get this huge uplifting in demand. So, yes, the world's going to go through a tough time and there could be issues of demand in that respect. On the flip side, there is de-globalisation happening. Everyone's trying to gain more control over their commodities and what they hold. Even if you look at AI, the hyperscalers, they're looking to spend several hundred billion US dollars a year in data centers and doing what they do. And that requires raw materials. It comes back to supply. We just don't have the amount of supply that's that's coming. So, what usually happens in these commodity cycles is everyone starts to realise that it panics prices shoot up, but it takes many, many years to bring a mine on board. So, that's why these cycles can last a few years, like it did about 25 years ago. Eventually, this supply comes on and then that ends the cycle. So, we're still in the early days. We still haven't seen the huge spike up in the, yeah, okay, copper prices have gone up and gold prices have gone up, but we haven't had the huge panic run in prices. And when we get that, obviously the share prices will go up. Everyone else will start to realise what's going on. More money will rotate out of tech. Everyone's still recommending tech. So, no one's given up on it. Everyone else is still talking about by tech stocks. So, they haven't rotated into this sector yet. So, I think it's going to be very exciting the next 12 months. Okay. I like that. All right, let's just sum up what we have learned see if this works. For our stock of the day, James Hardy, it can still get worse. Michael would sell. Wrong stock. Wrong time says Jonathan, "Ahold." Boss Energy. Michael says it's a coin flip for this one, but it's a sell. If you want that uranium, I suppose you can rotate into an ETF uranium that covers all the miners. It's a buy for Paladin for Jonathan, a hold if you've worn the pain for boss energy. Brookside, a small one that Michael hasn't been following. He reckons it will continue to raise money over time. He says by the big ones, Jonathan agrees. He'd rather be in the likes of Woodside, although he says Brookside is interesting. It's a hold. Coles, it is back to its support level. Says Michael, getting a bit expensive might draw in some of those defensive dollars. However, he'd be selling it and looking for opportunities elsewhere. But Jonathan sort of disagrees. He says it's good to buy defense right now. He's very cautious. HCC uncertainty over. It's a buy, but it's a trading sort of stock. And Perente, Michael would prefer to hold NRW holdings in ALQ. Doesn't look as good as those ones. He reckons it's a hold for him. But it's a buy for Jonathan. He says it is the, you know, the premier underground gold drilling operator and it's been winning contracts. So buy BHP. You just heard what they said. They're both buying BHP both like it. And the cycle is in its favor. All right, our investment committee met late last month. The most recent episode is up online for you to take a look at. You just go to the top of Osbus.com.au and look for it under series. Made some changes. Made some changes in weightings as well. That fund is up by 31% on a cumulative return basis since it began back in March of 2022. So there's a picture for you to track its progress. And when we get a double buy from this program, which of course is BHP, although it's already in the fantasy portfolio, quite heavily weighted towards it. I think goodness, I guess. And we send it to the investment committee for their considerations. In a couple weeks, we'll be holding another committee meeting to see what gets put in or out or reweighted. So yeah, you can catch up with that online. Osbus.com.au. You've worked hard for your money, all your life. Now your money needs to work hard for you. Whether you're building, transferring or drawing down, the right information makes all the difference. At Osbus Retire, you'll find the latest news and insight from trusted experts all in one place. Osbus Retire is powered by RAM. Retirement income done differently. So stock six to ten technology one, which of course did report yesterday. We spoke with the CEO here on Osbus. If you missed it, you can check it out. Nav. So it can't seem to go a day without talking about one of the banks. Charter Hall, Longwell Retire, Ingems Group and Stockland. All right, let's get to technology one. Never enough opinions out there about this one for Benjamin. Look, it seemed like a good report, Jonathan, but got sold off. Is that just an expression of just the negativity being put towards some of these SaaS tech things? Yeah, absolutely. But if you look at the price action today, it's actually reversed. That has been bought up and actually broken out to new heights. I wouldn't say new heights, but it's bounced today. So I think yesterday was whoever had the chance to take profits or exit the position they used that liquidity to do so. And then now the market's actually taking the opportunity to actually head on higher with this one. So it looks positive after the results. Obviously, you're a channel to the CEO. He was saying that a lot of the other SaaS names, sort of dumping employees because of AI, they've kind of missed the market and just saying that that tech one hasn't actually done that and actually hired more people going into this. So they reversed it. And if you compare technology one compared to say a wise tech or a zero, it has done extremely well. Most of the other ones are down 30, 40% from the start of the year versus technology one, which is flat. So the fact that it's been a relative out performer, technically that now that a lot of the other SaaS names haven't broken down to new lows and are actually finding support at key levels, I think as more money sort of flows back in the tech, as Mark said, people haven't given up on tech. They're actually still believing in the story. I think technology one will be a benefit of that. So for me, I think it's the premier stock within the space for the year in terms of relative performance. So I think it's a buy. It's a buy. All right. So we're off and running. What do you think about technology one? Because many people say that this is very high quality Aussie tech. They've grown their annual recurring revenue. They continue to hit the goals that they set for themselves. So now. Yeah, look, they're doing a great job. I mean, the growth looks really good. The result was was pretty solid. It is one of the better ones, but I just think that it's going to continue to get caught up in this sort of broader rotation, unfortunately. So I would rate it as a sell and that's not a reflection on the business, but it's just the fact that I think the market is going to rotate out of these sort of long duration assets and into the heart assets. So I think the problem, the problem that we have at the moment is everyone's looking at what it's done in the last year. It's fallen from $40 to where it is now. So it's a bargain and the market doesn't know what it's doing. It shouldn't be down here. It should should be going back up. It's a great business, but apparently we're not saying that about the market went from $20 to $40. So I think that it's going to revert back to the long-term trend, which is back under that $20 region. And we could see clearly on this chart sure it's dropped a lot, as I said, but it's basically just erasing that that silly move from 24/25. And look, we're in it during that period of time as well. It was great. It was a great momentum trade, but I do believe that it will deflate back to those lower levels. So yeah, not a reflection on the business, but I think that's just where the world is at the moment. It doesn't want to pay 50 PE or whatever it is over the next couple of years in a very uncertain environment where we have inflation where we have higher interest rates and just the flow of money will enter the resources sector at a greater rate of knots. So yeah, I would be a seller. Okay, what's your time frame usually because you're trading primarily? Oh god, I think you don't buy anything for sort of a set and forget 5-10 years, right? I'll hold it for as long as it's going up. So it's 5-10 years, but now look, I think over the next few years these stocks will continue to deflate. What's your time frame? My time frame usually a few weeks to a month. Okay. So there you go. Buy in a cell. Make of that what you will. And let's get to the next one on the list. And that is now. This one is for Daniel. Look, I'm not being facetious, but we talk about the bags a lot. Low growth, slow and growth, concerns about what's happening in the geopolitical space, interest rates rising, but their margins are being squeezed and competition is very great, not just in residential mortgages, but particularly what impacts Nav is in the business banking side of things as well. So all of that being said, buy hold or sell? For me, just a hold. Or actually just a sell. Banks are just like with the changes as well to negative gearing. It looks like they want to push through the capital gains tax as well. I mean, like, Nav, because they're mostly business banking, they should do a little bit better than say a Commonwealth or a Westpac who have more residential mortgage exposure. But look at the chart. Look at the fact that we're at the bottom end of the range. I think it just keeps heading low from here. Like, you know, we at NPC, we use other instruments to try and get yield from banks and we'd rather do that. You know, you're getting a higher yield without the stock risk. So, I mean, like before when banks had momentum back in, I think, early 25 and CBA was heading towards that 200 mark. There was a trade there, but the fact that it's all reversed and it's been sort of one way traffic lower tells me that it continues, especially. Yeah, now that it looks like the government wants to ram these changes in on negative gear and capital gains tax. So, yeah, in that environment, capital flees and the banks will suffer. Okay. Are you as negative on the banks? Yeah, same thought. I mean, it was good trade 12 months ago when the momentum was there and everyone was scratching their heads. But, yeah, look, the only financial that we hold for clients is the quarry group. We're not holding the big four banks anymore. We could see that there was, you know, generally a bit of a trend there since those lows in 23 and it's definitely broken down. It's not as though they're dirt cheap that despite the headwinds, you enter at these points, at this point. So, yeah, too many headwinds as you've covered and look, it's falling despite there still being a lot of, I guess, sticky investors. So, there's a lot of investors that are sitting on gains and they won't sell here because, you know, they don't want to pay the capital gains. They've held it for a long time. But, yeah, at some point, yeah, if they didn't sell at $40, you know, it'll get into the 20s and then suddenly their gain is almost gone and then they'll just panic and then they'll get rid of it and you'll get another league lower. So, And then there'll be dirt shape potentially. swing the buy. So, not yet, maybe in another 12 months, we'll have to see. Okay, well no doubt it will come up again on the call. So tomorrow. Yeah, so chew worry. Daniel, thank you for the question. I'm just being a little bit funny, sort of not really. Okay, let's get to the next one on the list. That's Charter Hall Longwell Reatsy LW. This one is for Eva. So I guess the same sort of logic could apply. Like, why would you want to be in the reats when interest rates are rising? Unless it's, you know, your cautious approach for yields. Yeah, so you just summed it up for me. Like, you know, why would you be in there? Okay. Look, if you didn't have money and you're like, okay, so probably my bottom out here at these levels, yeah, fair enough. Okay, because the yields are actually at decent levels written down. So Charter 7.2% at current prices, no franking on that. And the thing is, because it's an industrial, industrial authority, but either way, their rents are tied to CPI. Yeah. If we are in a rising CPI environment, which is what we, I believe, we are in. Yeah, at least they're not going to be affected by, you know, it's commercial, so industrial, social, you know, a little bit of everything. Exactly. Yeah, definitely commercial. Yeah. And all those rents are tied to CPI. And long whale for those of watching at home, it means that they're very long lease. Yeah, absolutely. So usually, you know, seven to ten years as well. So, so basically, yeah, it does make sense here at the bottom end of the range, but just in general, like, I, you know, I look for other places to get income. I like 7.2 sounds good. But you could probably get that in, you know, there's a bond ETFs out there paying close to that. You don't have the price rates within stocks. You can do that with, you know, we use things like fixed coupon, nice to do that as well. So, yeah, there's just other ways to get income and not have to, you know, suffer on property prices falling. So you've got to think of the risk versus reward. Yeah, exactly. So it's like, you know, does 7.2% yield look, look fine. It does look good on paper. But, you know, in an environment where I think, you know, we have elevated property prices and they definitely can fall from here. You know, it's like, I don't, I wouldn't take the stock risk for the yield. What about you? Yeah, yeah, agree. I mean, there's no point getting a 7% yield if the share price is going to decline. 10% from here and then maybe take a while to recover anyway. So, yeah, it's all about the tough environment. We're entering, I mean, nothing wrong with their leases and the rents, that's all good. But from a property valuation point of view, not great when interest rates are going up. Plus if they're looking at, you know, new developments, high interest rates, high cost of borrowing, there's, there's high cost everywhere anyway. So construction costs are only going to go up from here. So, yeah, it's, it's a cyclical thing. We could see on this chart, it's a pretty ugly looking chart. So it does look like it can head back towards that $3 area. So, yeah, I guess you buy these things at the bottom of the cycle. When is that? Well, I guess when we, when we've just hit recession and interest, we've had another couple of interest rate rises and interest rates can only get cut from there, then that'll probably be the bottom. And I don't think we're there yet. So it's a sell. Okay. So, a solid sell coming from both my guests for charter hall long well reed. Let's get to Ingen's group. This one's for Alexander. Ingen's reported not too long ago. It's an interesting one because if we're thinking about protein, it's an affordable protein while the cost of living continues to rise. And Lord knows we're all being told to eat a lot of protein, but it does deal with those behemoths like coals and Woolworths. So constantly being squeezed on price I would imagine. And then I feel like I need to just let you guys speak. What do you think about Ingen's? Okay. So I remember when they actually first listed probably like three, four years ago now and it was like $3 and I was like, okay, interesting. As you said, protein, cheapest sort of protein available and very favorable in terms of market dynamics because it's actually growing and people are actually eating more proteins. They're the only producer and sort of distributed within a Australian New Zealand as well that's listed. So yeah, they are the best operators there. I actually went through their presentation and like one of their farms like it was like pristine green farmland and they had this massive facility. I take to think how big it is from the ground, but you know, we're talking probably 150 buildings. I can't imagine how many chickens are in there and then they had other pictures of their processing facilities. So what they are saying in their presentation is that the good thing about what management have says is that they put their hand up and said, okay, we haven't run things well. They've got to hit returns below potential, earnings inconsistent and volatility has eroded their confidence. What their plan going forward though is straight from the thing is that they want to move up the value chain in terms of their products and actually invest more into that space. So I don't know the value chain of chickens that that well, but so I don't know how they're going to do that. But the fact that they put their hand up and said, look, we haven't run the business quite well. But we are in a sector that is growing. So I'm like, okay, well, that makes one sense. And the market actually rewarded that that sort of admission from them and they actually bounce from the lows and I think $70. I'm trying to think about $95 now. So I think there is a trade in there, but it's going to move socially. Like it's can't really recommend it either. Like if you look at the longer turn chart, like it just hangs around just just just around sideways. I think the ball would probably be around a six ball on this thing. It just does not move. So with that, I think the debut isn't that great either. I wouldn't want to like, I don't know. I got a 7.6 debut at current level. So maybe that's a, or maybe I'm still going for one of the reads in as I scroll down. That's right. The end there. But either way, I think that is a sign of life here. So I am positive to stock as a trade, but as a trade that I do want things that have a bit of volatility. So I can't actually recommend it on that point either. So a hold for me, but I like the fact that management has has a plan to actually grow from here. All right. So if I'm just, I'm just trying to find out the dividend yield for you. I can do that in a second when my computer gets up and running. But what I can tell you is that there is a hold from Bell Potter McCory pretty recently upgraded it to neutral from under perform Morgan's has upgraded it to buy from hold. And UBS has a neutral with a consensus target price of $2.40. So that's implying about 22.4% upside. What do you make of incomes? Because I would also throw in there. What if, what if food costs rise? Because you know, we've got fertilizer shortages for straight up from us. There's a lot of moving parts. Yeah, there's this too many negatives coming up for this stock. Yeah, costs are rising. So their cost to do business is rising and it will continue to rise. And time flies Jonathan at this that almost 10 years ago now. So yeah, longer than you thought. So yeah, it's just done nothing for investors over those 10 years. It's got a pretty severe downtrend. Yeah, costs are only going to get worse from here, not better. The chickens might want me to say this, but they're just a commodity. Yeah, they're sorry. The chickens can't hear you. So look, it's just a commodity. So you either buy incomes or you buy the other one that's cheaper. I mean, unless you're buying the free range or something a little bit different, they're generally all the same and management wants to, I guess, you know, go up the value chain. But we saw that with the Treasury wines trying to be a bit more premium. But if people can't afford it and they want to buy it, they just, they just won't. I mean, you could, you could slap a premium in and stick around your chicken and say that it's better than the one next to it. But if it's going to cost five bucks more than the other one with where we're heading as a country, they're not going to buy that one. They're going to buy the cheap one. Can you tell my wife that you stick an organic stick on something? If you put you in the toilet, I've been banned from doing that. So I just, I just don't, yeah, unless we're at cycle lows and it's so dirt cheap again. I just can only see getting worse from here than better. So I'd be a seller. Yeah, I'm allowed to buy free range, but I've been told to hold off on the organic stuff lately. We're all victims to the cost of living. Let's get to the next on the list. In fact, it is still a little hast on the list. This program is flown by it is stock. So we're back to property. This one's for Samuel. Again, Samuel. Thanks for writing in. Don't know if he already owns it. But is there a reason to buy it now? I'll start for a fundamental view for me because stock is diversified as well. Well, we do. I know rates are rising, but we've got this massive housing shortage. You know, hopefully there can be some further measures brought in to address that side of the equation. Yeah, so it's kind of, so stock ones kind of a different rate, if they're. if that makes sense. So obviously each other well industrial commercial they just collect rents and click tickets. Whereas Stocklands are land bankers. So they have huge passes of land which they will onto development. They got what they call mass plans communities that's their main thing and the fact that negative gear will only apply to new builds should actually help them out because you know everyone will then you know if they do want that negative gear in benefit they will have to look at things like you know Stocklands Stock or even say Merback. They could be the direct beneficiaries. Problem though is people can't borrow as much going forward. So I saw I've got a few mortgage brokers that are on their email list and I made some mine. Investors I believe some of them have had their borrowing capacity cut by 20% some say yeah just based off no negative gearing factor in into their borrowing. So their income hasn't dropped but just the fact that they can't add those benefits back means that their borrowing capacity is dropped by anywhere from I've heard 20 up to about 33% so it just means that you know the investors can't actually afford more going forward. So you've got that initial hit and then but then you've got the fact that they will you know their the premier in terms of building new stocks so they should benefit long term. I think overall though and we've seen this in New Zealand and in Canada is that basically the housing prices is actually driven by migration or immigration and what they what's happened in New Zealand and Canada is that that was actually stopped their reverse because of because of policy and so what you actually need to look at is what's our policy going forward. Is the immigration level continue will continue to be at these record levels going forward if so housing prices will continue the rise and I think stockling will be a beneficiary of that. If there is new policy because of you know because we voted in say someone new and we want change then that could be the you know that could be the sort of the caution in the property prices going forward. That being said though you know reads again I don't really want to be that in that space because of you know that rising rain environment so for me just a whole but the fact that they've you know more land banking if you you know do want to have some exposure to that you know stockling is the only game in town. Okay Michael yeah look I think same headwinds as with the the charter hall in terms of the rates and and all of that I think in terms of new builds you know will they you know will they benefit if there's you know increased demand because new builds are exempt from some of these changes I don't think the yeah I don't think demand is is the issue if anything we know there's too much demand. So a little bit of extra demand isn't going to create new builds the you know basically you've got so much government red tape it costs so much to to build a house or property nowadays that it's it's hard to make money from it so sure you can add a bit more demand but it's not going to I don't think it's going to help stockland at all so I think the overriding issues for them will be you know in terms of a share price again high interest rates slowing economy etc etc and we could see on this chart it's it's pretty ugly it's gone nowhere for 10 years it's I mean it's almost as bad as CSL it's gone nowhere in 10 years but even most recently you've got this horrible looking down trend so I'd be a seller yeah I wouldn't be in the rates. All right so that is stockling let me just review what we have learned in this half of the program and we started in the tech the SaaS space enterprise software T&E look Michael says it's doing a great job but it will continue to get caught up in this sell-off so it is a sell for him he reckons it could go back to $20 it is a buy though for Jonathan Takadina date now we will sell it both of my guests would sell it and Jonathan points to you know negative gearing CGT it's just got a lot of headwinds right now charter hall Michael Reckens the yield doesn't matter if the share price declined so he would sell he says it will head back or could head back to $3 yeah Jonathan's just questioning why you would be in it it would he'd sell it you could probably get the same return in terms of yield from less risky products Ingham cost arising stocks done that thing it's a sell for Michael there's a trade in there Jonathan Reckens but he doesn't know when so in that regard it is just a hold and stockling same headwinds for Michael is charter hall with the slowing economy and boy slowing economy came up lots today didn't it that's a sell for him it's a landbanker so does have something a little bit different going on Jonathan Reckens but he points to the fact that people won't be able to borrow as much going forward also migration policy the winds of change they feel like they're blowing not just here so it's a hold for him at best guys that was really nice to have you both then Jonathan Takadina from NPC Michael Gable from Fairmont equities see I know it and look it was been great to have you either watching live on demand or listening the best thing you can do for us here at Osbus if you enjoy this content and even like us to continue to bring you this content is to tell your friends about us the more the merrier we'd really really love to get more people watching Osbus in general and listening to these amazing expert guests that we have and that you cannot find in this way anywhere else all right thanks for watching and stay with us more news and views coming right up the call is brought to you by Centuria an ASX listed property fund manager with $21 billion in assets under management wanted to diversify beyond decodies explore the Centuria Sydney CBD Prime Office Fund at centuria.com.au