The Best Week 10 NFL DFS Picks & Values You NEED to Know!

Welcome everybody to week 10 of the 444 DFS MVP podcast. I'm your host, John Breslin. You may know me as Skrull Patrol, joined by Neil Orfield, Davis Matic, Pat Carain. We may be sitting here with an empty chair by the end of the show. Davis Matic may have to leave the show. Congratulations. Yeah, literally, literally any minute I might have to, I might have to bail because today is the due date of my first child. And so that means, yeah, probably won't happen in the 45 minutes to an hour we're doing the show, but never say never. Yeah. All right. Well, it'll be fun. Make for an exciting show. It would make for an exciting show. Yeah. Yeah, that would be better than the time my weight broke or risked in the middle of a show. And to run off to the hospital. Anywho, on that note, we have an interesting slate ahead of us back down slightly to 10 games. Do we? Is it that interesting? I think we do. Yeah, I enjoy it. I need your enthusiasm, Carain. We like the slate or we don't like it. I'm into it. Okay. Yeah. So what I'll say, I think the thing is like a marked lack of injury news. We've had weeks and weeks now of like Ricco Dowdell's, Kyle Menon guys like Trevion Henderson's like, you know, Rashad White either working out or not working out. Now, we really, I'm not sure we have any like major, major injury news. So that makes it a difficult slate with like no racing bargains at the running back position. I think some people like that better. I tend to like having like a kind of a free square. But yeah, so it makes it difficult to pick out, you know, where we're going to go without, you know, having any obvious value plays for our rosters. I don't know that there's like necessarily ownership concentrating anywhere so far as of like Friday afternoon. But, you know, we'll start off with the game environments. Neil, hopefully you've got something for us. What do you think? I think I've got a few that I like. Also on top of the lack of like value, we also don't have the Bengals on this slate. So I can't just use my usual trick of play running backs against them. We don't have the Cowboys, who that also has worked for. We don't have the Chiefs. So Davis can't go to Patty Mahomes and Xavier Worthy again this week. So we lose out. Wish I wouldn't have been able to go to them last week. I know. I would have found a Shipper last week with all the Bowers and as long as Mahomes is out on my teams. Yeah. So at least we don't have that holding us back this week. But the game environments, we do still have some pretty fun game environments. I think my top game environment is the Giants and the Bears. That one I think both teams like could put up big fantasy points here. Both defenses are kind of weak and like value across the board. We don't have a ton of like expensive players in that game. So I think that one is fun. Buffalo Miami clearly has like big, big potential. If Miami can stick in the game, we could see a lot of fantasy points scored here. James Cook obviously is playing now. So that is a big boost to the game. I will go to some of my Minnesota Vikings and Lamar Jackson, the Ravens Vikings game should be a pretty fun one. So I would rank that one up there. I see a few other games that look pretty enticing. None of them like really break away from the pack. They're like six games to me that like all look pretty good and I'll leave it at those three and let the other guys talk about any other games that they might like. Pat, what are your thoughts? Yeah, I like the Patriots Bucks game. I think that game is really fun. One of the things about this week is that there's no like super high confidence game environments or like this game is definitely going to be awesome. But there's a few that I think have some real upside. Like Giants Bears, for example, I'm like not as into because I think that the Bears just run the ball like a bunch. Now that they're going to have two running backs, like the Giants have literally the worst run defense in the league. But the Bears defense stinks and the Giants defense isn't good. So there could be points. So there's kind of like it's a little bit of like beauty in the eye of the beholder here. But I do like the Patriots Bucks because you have an elite run defense on both sides. The Bucks and the Patriots are both great at stopping the run. The Bucks aren't going to have Bucky Irving. The Patriots aren't going to have Ramandre. Not that it really matters that much, but they won't have them. And so you have both teams that are in a fairly high point total game, both have good implied team totals, and both need their passing games to be the engine of the offense. And both have quarterbacks that we think can step up to the challenge against a pretty good Bucks defense and against a decent Patriots pass defense. But neither is like totally, you know, totally shut down. And the Patriots I thought actually held up pretty well against the Falcons last week on offense. I think, you know, May had a 12.68 out against the Blitz. He was going downfield. So that's pretty relevant for this matchup, given how much Todd Bolz Blitz is. I think there could be some real upside here on the Patriots side and on the Bucks side. And these teams could push each other. So that's the one I'm kind of the most into is like, you know, this kind of like I like the over in that setup. And I think it could, if the overheads, it could be like pretty fun. The Lions and commanders is another one that I'll shout out where the commander secondary is real banged up. And the Lions, Penny Sewell and Taylor Deckard, both their tackles were on the injury report yesterday. As long as they go, I'm pretty into the Lions here. I think the Lions will put up points. If they don't go, I'm going to change that opinion. But it looks like Sewell is going to play. Sewell at least is going to go. And they have a pretty decent reserve tackle. So as long as like one of them plays, I think they'll be okay. But that's, I think the Lions passing game, particularly like golf to Amun Ra is kind of interesting. And then the Vikings, like this is another like kind of low confidence one, but I think the thing with JJ McCarthy, who was actually like pretty bad in the efficiency numbers last week. And I think the idea that he was like good last week is wrong. Disagree. No, he I also disagree. Okay, this that's actually the part that makes me nervous is that I think JJ McCarthy is like very likely bad. But he is doing the way he plays. Okay, he's got this long time to throw. And so you're like, All right, well, with a long time to throw, you better be mobile. Well, he is kind of mobile. He's like bonus level mobile. He's not like a true dual threat, but he runs around his rushing numbers are like almost identical to bonexes this year. Like, Okay, that's something. And then, well, you better be throwing deep. He has the highest deep attempt rate in the league. He's like, he's like playing kind of like Jalen Hertz, you know, or Jackson Dart would be maybe another comp. I think I think Dart is the comp you want where you're like, Yeah, like, I don't think this guy is like gonna, you know, win MVP or whatever. But he's kind of fun for our game. Yeah. So this is a matchup where like the Ravens pass rush is not good. The secondary is in better shape now. But the Ravens pass are still like the injuries have taken their toll. So Broderick Washington just went on IR, they don't have met a BK for the year. So this is the spot where if you have a long time to throw, and you play aggressively, it could be really fun. So even if he's even if he is bad, that he could look pretty good here. So this is one but Darasol popped up Christian Darasol popped up on the injury report yesterday. If he's out, then I'm like, I'm not doing I'm not doing Viking stuff. So there's it's like a little there's a number of games where you can kind of talk yourself into it, but they're kind of on the on the margins. Follow up question because you mentioned the Lions and commanders, like is there anything really from the commander side or just like Lions packed lineups? I mean, I guess I would just say like Mariota hasn't been bad. He's a huge downgrade obviously from Daniels, but he hasn't been bad this year. And so I think like he can he can probably push back to the extent that we need. But I want to play it from the Lions side. I'm not super interested in in commander's pieces. Even Debo Samuel, I'm not like super interested in. I think that yeah, the commanders are mostly serving to just like help the Lions score points, I think. Davis, any any game environments that haven't been touched on yet that are catching your eye? No, I just want to drive home. Like I actually think it's sometimes better for the Lions to be against these totally hopeless opponents because then they can get guys going who are maybe not very good. Like we saw this with David Montgomery against the Bengals. They were like, we're going to let you throw a passing touchdown. We've seen this with Jamo, like these big blowout games, they're like, all right, we're going to let Jamo kind of like John Morton says every week, like it betrays my soul as a man that I have not gotten Jameson Williams more fantasy points and then they never throw him the ball. But they can do that if they're up 20 points in the second half, they can be like, all right, we're going to get Jameson Williams to touch. Can they? You did it on his own last week. Work, man. Hey, hey, hey, that play last week. 16.6 16.6 BPR fantasy points last week just for the record is that's a spike week for him. Yeah, it is commanders. It is the commanders. Yeah, Tory Horton had like 30 points last week. All right. So I think we touched on the game environments. I'll say that, you know, I'm a little bit torn this week because I do think that Josh Allen is my top quarterback, but I don't think that's the top game environment. And I think the thing with Allen is that his price is inexplicably down, especially on draft kings. He's like, why is Josh Allen the cheapest he's been all season against Miami? So like normally my top quarterback is aligned with my top game environment. But I think the top game environment is actually the Minnesota Baltimore. It's just like the right combination of high total, like good to playmakers on both sides. Like you can just see that game environment getting elevated. But I think I'm like, I don't know that we really even touched on like the Rams and San Francisco that much. But like you've got Christian McCaffrey, Pukinakula, you know, you've got a really good value who I'd receive potentially in Juwan Jennings. I guess, you know, we want to monitor Ricky Piersol. I don't know if he's coming back. But like this is, I actually have talked about for like single entry, I like to like play six or eight different lineups and spread them out amongst like different single entry contests. But like this one might be where it's like six different quarterbacks, you know, six different game environments even just because it's a really tough slate to pick out game environments. But we'll move on to the quarterback position and Pat will start with you. You know, that we touched on the game environments. What are you looking at the QB for the QB decision? Yeah, I guess some of my optimism this week for the slate or my enthusiasm comes from the fact that you can definitely play Drake May. So, you know, last week we couldn't play Drake May, or at least I didn't want to. And this week I'm like, I'm back in. It's a difficult matchup. But I do think the Bucks pushed them. And I think the fact that they really can't run the ball here in a way that's going to like drive the offense, it's putting it on May's shoulders. And he had his least efficient game of the year last year of the year last week. But I think like his efficiency last week would have been like Bryce Young's like fourth best game. It wasn't like he like cratered. And so yeah, I think the production and the Patriots passing game is interesting, specifically playing it through May. I do like Alan. The thing like Alan on his own is obviously a great play, but I was just like, man, they don't want to use, they don't like Alan is like their secondary option. Like their their their feature player here, I think is going to be James Cook. They just like they're all about running the ball right now, which is annoying. McCarthy, I think is is pretty strong at 4900. And you can stack them like that's pretty interesting. I think you play the Patriots game on the other side with with Baker, Goff, Lamar, I have some interest in actually, you know, he's he's 6800. And he's going against a Vikings defense that's tough. But like, this is a really good pass rush and Blitz, but they've they've had some let downs on the back end. And Lamar is awesome against the Blitz. Goff is good against the Blitz, and they just stifled him last week. But I think Lamar could get the better of the Vikings here. So so he's interesting to me too. I'm not so interested in Mac Jones, you know, to touch on that, that gaming bar. I think he played well against this team last week. But Mac Jones under pressure makes me nervous. There's a lot of options. I mean, it is just all Lamar Jackson for me. Lamar in a dome, his projections are artificially deflated because the systems that are projecting him have a pretty poor four game rolling average for him, which is how a lot of these things work. His props are a little bit lower than they would normally be because the projections just don't look that good. But the reason they don't look that good is because he's been playing injured. Even even his sample from the game against the Chiefs, he was injured in that game, finished the game with the injured hamstring. He's now had he has played four quarters of half effort football in the last six weeks, 10 days rest since then he's in a dome. I mean, I think you're going to get Lamar at like 8% this week. I think you're going to get Zay flowers. What was Zay flowers even going to crack 10% will mark Andrews coming off a two touchdown game, crack 5% in any salary cap stuff, probably not feels like literally an all time spot. Like you'll be looking at scores on Sunday evening. You'll be like, wait, Lamar Andrews was 11% product ownership that that can't be right. And it is in fact right. Yeah. So that's like far and away my favorite spot of the week. I'm seeing Zay flowers is like the highest owned wide receiver. Really? Yeah. Well, I think he's a great player. I think he's like underpriced at 1500. I think it's a great argument. Like, I think there's an argument like, hey, like nobody's seeing that high ownership. Like, you know, I'm seeing like projection systems that have him. Okay. My sheet, my sheet is wrong. I saw him at 13. I'm wrong. Walking it back. Walking it back. I love the Lamar call and play. Yeah. I don't know if I love Zay flowers as the most owned wide receiver of a slate, like I think you could probably just do like Bateman or something or just do it. So I actually do the whole thing with flowers is you don't want him to have to score a touchdown. Bateman is interesting. I noted that the flowers dealt with 42% double coverage rate last week and he gets a Vikings defense that double covers at the highest rate in the league. So you could be looking at, you know, another spot where he's like, he was solid last week, but getting Lamar back, you'd be like against the Dolphins. You'd be like, oh man, this is going to be huge. It wasn't huge. And so a ton of double coverage would be good for Bateman and potentially Andrews as well. You know, if all the attention is focused on Zay, which it probably will be. I mean, he's very clearly their top guy. Neil, move on to you. Any, any quarterback thoughts for us? Yeah, I think this is a slate where I'm going to be like fairly spread out at quarterback, but also not like my pool is probably going to be, you know, not include half the quarterbacks on the slate. So I think a lot of the ones mentioned I like Alan Jackson, may all sound great. I'll throw a dart out there as another quarterback. Just that's another game environment that I like dart, like getting more expensive, but like has has the running. I think there are some some fun stacks you can do with dart. For the most part, I'm in line with just like playing the quarterbacks already mentioned. I'll throw out, I don't know if we've actually thrown out golf in this segment. We talked about it with the game environments, but I think golf is a strong quarterback play this week. And then it doesn't get much like, I don't think I'm going to go to too many more quarterbacks than the ones we already mentioned. Maybe I'm going to consider Tua just at 4800 in a game where they're certainly going to be needing to throw a lot, I would think. I know it's gross, but like, I'll consider it. I think it'll make the pool for me in large field contests. I know. I mean, it's Olympic size. It's a large pool. It's a large pool. Yeah. Hey, Gino, Gino made the pool last week. Did pretty well. 27, 27 points. It's hard to differentiate Gino and Brock Bowers last week versus I think we did talk about this pre show that I after watching such a dud last night, it's like, Oh, no, I know, I know. It's fine. I'll throw out a name we didn't mention like Sam Darnold, any interest like four touchdown passes. I feel like he's having a little bit of a Baker Mayfield like season from last season where she's going to keep throwing three, four touchdown passes and out, outpacing his price at the end of the year. We know, yeah, we should have just been playing like Sam Darnold way more often. Any interest against Arizona? I think that's sharp. I mean, the, the brusette stuff, like when I wrote up the, the cardinal side of this, I was expecting to be like, Oh man, here we go, brusette. Like you, you just feasted against the Cowboys, but now you get a real defense. Uh-oh. And I would pull up his numbers from the past and stuff is like, he's been pretty solid, you know, his like career efficiencies in line with like Daniel Jones's, you know, like it's, it's not crazy that he could just kind of be solid to, to close the year and, and not crater in a tough matchup. And I think you really want that if you're playing Darnold, because they just want to run the ball. So you need, you need the Cardinals to like not roll over here. But I think they, they could be okay, like okay enough to where the, you know, the Seahawks have to kind of keep the pedal to the floor. And on the Darnold side, like they should have no problem this, this week putting up points. The, the Cardinals are down, it looks like they're going to be down two corners and they've been pretty bad at protecting the deep middle of the field where the Seahawks are attacking relentlessly. Jackson Smith and Jigba leads all receivers and in his rate of targets, 10 plus yards and over the middle, which is kind of like the, that I call it the splash zone. If you get a lot of yak from those targets, it's like a big factor in what was driving Tyree Kills production in 2022 and 2023. And he's just been, he's been incredible there. And, you know, he's got over four yards per run. So to me, it's like a, a matchup that sets up really well for, for Jackson Smith and Jigba, which is obviously really good for, for Darnold. I'll just, I'll close the quarterback talk with, I think we should not bury the lead. I think Josh Island is, is $1,000 less expensive than he was in week five inexplicably. It's like getting an extra $1,000. They've got the highest implied point total in a week. It is like, it's a difficult stack, but it's weird pricing. It's like DraftKings is kind of changing their pricing a little bit in midseason for, for no reason. So something, something to keep in mind, I think he's like, he's my top quarterback, but we'll move on to the running back position. And it's a difficult position this week. Davis, we'll start with you. You know, do no obvious value plays. Where do you think you, you know, you'll find yourself going at running back? I am, I'm probably just putting Rico Dowdle in the, I'm happy to just play him on every team. And if he gets hurt or if he fails, I wasn't going to win anyway. He has the highest, I was looking earlier, he's got the highest rushing yards prop like line on underdog. I guess I didn't look at Jonathan Taylor's cause it was the morning game. So it might, Jonathan Taylor might be higher. He's handled at least 22 rushes in every game that he started. So the two games that, that the two games that Chuba missed and last week as 120 rushing yards and all those games, he's got a touchdown in all those games. They're playing the New Orleans Saints who have now entered into, all right, I guess we're going to try and do this again differently next year mode. You know, like they, they trade it away. I always love when these bad teams trade away their only good linemen. It's like, what, what's the plan here? So I just, I mean, the Panthers might attempt like 12 forward passes in that game. Are they the Kyler team, by the way? I think the Saints might be the Kyler team next year. Raiders. Raiders. Raiders. I could say, I don't know what's more of a Kyler though. Yeah. And then like A-Chain, I like, I, I like A-Chain fine. I like McCaffrey fine. I like Judkins fine. I'll say my one hot take of the slate is that I like Jameer Gibbs more than A-Chain Gibbs at like 10-ish percent versus A-Chain. Just so much more likely that the Dolphins get blown out there. Gibbs basically like got turned into a full back last week with the crazy Blitzes from Floors. Like every time he was just having to pass block and the way that the Lions adjusted to that was they're like, okay, well, we'll just bring Montgomery in and just run. We'll neutralize the Blitz even though we're down two scores. I don't think that's going to be a problem against the Commies. A little fact check on the rushing yards props. Jonathan Taylor, 90 and a half rushing yards. Quinchon, Judkins, 86 and a half, but the highest rushing yard prop for the week is Ricodowdle at 92. That's what I thought. I thought Dowdle was the highest, but I didn't want to say without checking Taylor. Yeah. But even like Jonathan Taylor, you know, like not on the slate, it's a 930th. That's why we're down to 10 games instead of 11. So yeah, that is like not, I love looking at that kind of stuff because it's like, oh, yeah, I would not have thought Ricodowdle, but that, you know, gives me maybe a little bit more justification or certainty at the at the running back spot. Neil, what are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, one player that I like immediately honing on is Quinchon, Judkins, I think is actually kind of in a smash spot here against Jets who have already had a really bad defense and then created away all their good players, all their good defenders. And the runstop, like Quinn and Williams was their runstopper. Yeah, like Judkins like he's been really good this year. Like he's been really good. I mean, the Dallas compensation was nuts, but like he's been really good. So this is a, that's a big deal. Yeah. So like, and are they just going to give up? Like, is this a situation like, like we've seen with like the Bengals where it's just like, they don't want to be there anymore. They don't want to play. They're just like, they're closing the motions. They bent, they had a bench. So they trade Quinn and Williams, and then they bench his brother, Quincy Williams, is a linebacker. I didn't know that. Okay. Yeah. And it's like, well, if you're going to bench him, why don't you trade him for like a sixth? Like, what kind of, I thought you're building a culture. What's, what's, what is, what is this culture? It's bizarre. Yeah. So I mean, Quinn, John, Judkins is, I think like the clearest beneficiary of the trades and of just like the jets not having much defense left. I think we could just see Judkins run for 150 yards and two touchdowns against the jets. And he's, he's 6,500, doesn't like project extremely well for his price tag, like doesn't stand out. But to me, like that's player that I'm going to have a ton of, obviously I agree with Davis on, on Ricoh, Dowdall also being just a smash here, not going to make all of my lineups, but I'm going to have a fair amount of Ricoh, Dowdall also. But yeah, Quincy, Judkins is the one that I really want to call out. I think like Aaron Jones actually at 5,200, assuming that he plays, which I think all, all indications are that he's healthy. Like he seemed to have a pretty good connection with JJ McCarthy last week. And it had been like early in the year, a split between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. I think that's kind of gone away a little bit. Like he's, he's looked pretty good since he's come back from his injury. He's really involved in the passing game. So I think that he could be actually part of a stack with McCarthy or, you know, or a bring back or just like as a one off, I think 5,200 as far as like, you know, we don't have much value. I think 5,200 for Aaron Jones actually looks pretty nice here. Just, just given how good he has looked recently, how much JJ McCarthy has been targeting him, which, which actually that goes back to early in the year and that bears win. They had a long touchdown connection there. So I do kind of like Aaron Jones. I'll throw Woody Marks out there at 5,100. Nice matchup with Jacksonville. We've seen the roll expand. Now Nick Chubb is also like, he's been limited in practice all week. Could also miss, regardless, I think, Woody Marks kind of a fun, fun value play. But yeah, for the most part, like we've kind of named all the, all the high end guys that we like as well. Oh, James Cook, I don't think that's who I was going to jump in on. Yeah. Yeah. James Cook also looks great. I'll send it to Pat with that. Well, that's, that's kind of the, you know, the Gibbs pivot that Davis mentioned. I think I would, I like this one a little bit better because like, to your point, John, like this Buffalo team is going to put up points. But I think, you know, they could be leaning on James Cook here against a just completely outclassed Dolphins team. And that's like, they've really shown that they want to do that. Like they, they had a run heavy game plan against the Chiefs and it worked. You know, this is, I find this Buffalo team very frustrating because like they're doing something that I think is not maximizing Josh Allen, but it's also working just fine because James Cook's really good. And Josh Allen's so good, you can do like a ton of different stuff with them. You can design a bunch of different offenses. They'll be pretty good because Josh Allen's awesome. But I think they probably just like lean on the run game here, like they tend to do and the dolphins aren't good against the run. James Cook's not catching any passes, which is, which is annoying. But like, you know, his, his breakaway stuff is amazing. He has an incredible success rate. Like he's, he's kind of doing Jonathan Taylor stuff. If you look at the rushing numbers, I mean, it's not, you know, in the same package, but it's, it's very impressive. Like his pure rushing stuff is really, really impressive. And he's just, I think, you know, you're kind of like, let me bet on the efficiency here, rather than the projection of, you know, he's going to catch like five balls, like you can with a chance. So to me, it's like kind of direct pivot off of a chance where you're getting some ownership, but a chance looks like he'll be real chalky. So I like him a decent amount. Derek Henry, I'll also mention is kind of being somewhat interesting. It's 6,800. And I'm with you. I'm just like really with you on the quenchon one. I think, like, I mean, they also put Andre Cisco on IR, their safety. And Gardner was pretty good in the run game. Like they're, it just gutted this, this defense is just like completely gutted. I think we're getting to that point in the season where teams are really diverging. We actually see that in the totals, the spreads, right? The spreads get wider. The, you know, totals for like two bad teams go down where you've got teams just giving up like physical, like football is an incredibly physical game. It's like, it's like getting into a car accident, like high impact, like collision every time that running back runs into the line. Like if you're not motivated, like it's just easy to like think you're giving a ton of effort to it, but it's just like doesn't show up. And so yeah, I think that like, you've got these matchups, like teams cook against the dolphins where it's like, they just don't tackle. And like, yeah, like that seems like a disastrous matchup. Like, like, and we've talked about James Cook's like comical lack of targets. But, but, you know, I hate playing guys like running backs like that. Like, you know, Derek Henry and James Cook, they like, they just have no floor because of the, the targets, but like James Cook, it might not matter. Like they might not tackle him. And you just, you just got to play him when they're not popular. Like, you're like the week that Quinchaun Judkins was like stone chalk, he had three touchdowns and got 27 points. Like not even a true slate breaker, you know, but he was chalk. Yeah. But he's in the, in the same spot against the judge's team. It is just like running up the white flag. And you know, and everybody's like disgruntled and going home and like, I don't know, do I really want to go tackle that guy? Like, maybe I was kind of jog. The other thing I would say on the Brown side is that they, they changed the playcaller. So Tommy Reese is taking over and the, the Browns have been like pretty pass heavy. They had a 74% pass rate against the, the Patriots, which is 3% over expected. The last time we saw them, they were 79% against the Steelers. So they've been kind of like willing to just like pass a bunch when they've needed to, but it's a new playcaller. So maybe that changes. And we have seen them really run the ball when they've been given a chance in the past that they had a minus 10% pass rate of expected against the Vikings. They're at minus 12% against the Dolphins. That was that Judkins game. I think like if you're Reese, first time playcaller, and you've got Dylan Gabriel, and you're going against the pleaded Jets defense, like, I don't think I'm just like putting my reputation on Dylan Gabriel, I'm putting it on quench on Judkins against this run defense that's, that's way worse than the numbers suggest. It suggests it's like solid. It's probably pretty bad. So I think the, and Reese has been kind of like, he came from like his background's more like, you know, stay balanced, like keep the defense on their, on their heels, you know, keep the threat of the run alive. Like that's sort of when I was looking into him in the off season, the vibe I got. So I think he'll be happy to run the ball here. And we could see a little bit different shift in identity more towards the run with Reese calling plays now instead of Sifansky. Just want to put a bow on the running back position. Did we mention David Montgomery? Because he's only 5,000. It's just so easy to see him getting a push down here. And we, like, we just don't have the running back value that I don't love playing David Montgomery. Cause like he's, he's probably not going to like put a, be absolutely dominant score. But yeah, he, there's a really, give me, give me Trevion Henderson. Give me Trevion Henderson. I know it's not a good spot for running backs, but the Jennings scored the touchdown last week, which tilted everyone so hard. But what happened was he basically had a really nice like 17 yard run where he like broke two tackles and drug some guys. And that was just a classic like reward the guy for making the good play. Don't, don't have him make literally that probably the highlight of Terrell Jennings life. Don't say, Hey man, thanks. Uh, we're now going to let Trevion Henderson take your touchdown. Like I don't think that's the plan. I don't think Terrell Jennings is the goal line back. Like Trevion probably gets like six catches in this game. Um, and, and we all, I mean, think about if this spot happened in week two, what, what would Henderson's have projected ownership of been 35% something like that? Like we're, we're, we're off the, I don't know, he's 5,600. Like he's not, it's a tough rushing matchup. Like I don't think this is like, he's like the cheapest pass catching running back by like a lot. Who's the, who's the other, like Judkins doesn't get, let me look at my sheet and see who would be even be close. Yeah. I mean, I, I threw out Aaron Jones, but like looking at the game log, like it was two targets last week. So like he looked really good on his two targets, but actually was not. I mean, ETN is 57 I was going to say ETN or Henderson. I'm, I'm Henderson. I'm taking, I'm taking, yeah, I take ETN. I, the Texans, like we haven't talked about that game much, but Davis Mills, like when you go back and look at his stuff, it's like, Oh no. Yeah. This dude was bad. Like I'd kind of forgotten how bad he was. We're talking about like, you know, you, you look at like, there's a handful of quarterbacks, including like Zach Wilson and stuff that have been worse in this guy. Since 2021 500 plus plays only Zach Wilson to Sean Watson will have us are worse in success rate. Only Zach Wilson to Sean Watson, Spencer Rattler will have a Sam Hal and Bryce Young are worse in EPA per game. He's just been, he's been horrible. Like this is, this is a massive, massive downgrade for, for the Texan. So I, I would bet on ETN is a bet that like Jacksonville just rolls. Yeah. EWW says Woody Marks, who I brought up before. And now, now you're making me a question, is, is Davis Mills so bad that he's going to just like crater Woody Marks also? I don't know. It's, I mean, there's that potential for sure. Yeah. Maybe he's surprised at us, but yeah, it's just such a low total game. And I think there's like a chance it hits the under. Oh yeah. Yeah. But because, because Jacksonville, my crater or two, the Houston's defense is so good. Yeah. You know, past defense especially. Yeah. But we'll move on to the wide receiver position. Neil, we'll start with you. Yeah. Without a lot of savings, like it's probably easier to get savings to the wide receiver position than like, than other positions, right? Like a secondary, second wide receiver has a good chance of outscoring like a second running back. Your thoughts on the White House. Yeah. I love Zay flowers at 13% ownership. That's a joke, sir. He's the chocolate product with Lamar. Zay flowers still like, he's going to project well, looks, looks pretty good there. I, Wondale, I think like another slot funnel matchup for Wondale. I think I'll probably play a bit there. He is also getting some ownership. A lot of the receivers that stand out, frankly, are getting a fair amount of ownership. I think I'll still go back to Joann Jennings as the possibly, I mean, they have kiddo, but like alpha of the receivers there looks pretty good at, at 4,600 to me. Addison 5,400 looks like a pretty strong play, like nice, nice value there. We haven't really seen the connection yet at the NFL level with, with Jaden McCarthy, but like, they look good together in the preseason. So I think that that connection is coming. Man, I want to say Nico Collins, but he has Davis Mills at quarterback. So I don't know that I'll actually do that. Pat brought up Rashad Bateman earlier, who I think is actually a really strong, like contrarian leverage play on Zay flowers, who like, you look at his fantasy production with Lamar Jackson versus without Lamar Jackson and Bateman just significantly better with Lamar Jackson. Now he's down to 3,900. Everybody's playing Zay flowers. So actually, like the, the, you know, Davis called out Lamar as a quarterback, pair him with Rashad Bateman, you're really bringing down that combinatorial ownership. So he also had 96% round participation last week, which is a season high. That's pretty good. But we'll take, we'll take 96%. Yeah, I don't know. I don't think I have any other really strong contrarian options that I want to throw out there. As Davis mentioned, like has Johnson is, is the, the chalky like value option. I'm actually not that chalky in the latest run, but was chalky earlier. Yeah, I think I think I'll leave it at, at those for now and I'll throw in, if I think of any others, I'll throw them in later. All right, Pat, thoughts on the wider series. Yeah. The guys who are pot, I mean, J, JSN, I mentioned is like set up so well, but he's expensive at a 600 and chalky. So that's, that's tough. I'm in our St. Brown. I think it's set up well, he'll be played on Tim or Puka. Feels very, I think JSN is higher owned than Puka. I think JSN is comfier like, especially with the Q tag that's been on Puka. Yeah. And you have, you have Adams and like they, you know, they trade it for Shahid, but I assume he'll be kind of limited and cups banged up. He knows, he knows the playbook. Yeah. I guess that's true. That's why they traded for Shahid and not for anyone. Like, I mean, I assume a larvae was probably available. Like I assume you could get other wide receivers other than Rashid Shahid. That's a good point. I still think like JSN is just, he's just very, very comfy. So I think he ends up being the highest owned guy, the higher, higher owned guy. I guess flowers are probably higher. But uh, go ahead. I was going to say a note on Rashid Shahid. I made this point earlier on another show that he's a speedster. So like that, like it doesn't take weeks of learning the playbook to do like a screen pass. And that's what you want from Rashid Shahid. If you put him into a lineup, is he catching each word pass and running the length of the field or a longer pass? But you know, and then, but I still like Jackson Smith and Jigba as well. So that maybe leads me to like why I like Sam Darnold, you know, as a quarterback. So yeah, I think a note, I think she's going to go under owned as well. It's just with uncertainty and maybe not projecting well and like stuff based off of just like New Orleans numbers. But yeah, Davis, any thoughts from you on the watch receivers? I mean, Juan Jennings should basically be like $5,500. He has a 23% target area last three weeks, scored a touchdown on the first drive last week. I believe he had three receptions on their first drive last week. And then they just like totally shut it down because the Giants couldn't push them at all. The first Rams 49ers game was a banger that gave us 10 for 142 for Kendrick Bourne. What's happened is Jennings has shifted back into that role and Bourne is now just the guy who's out there providing space. George Kittle has 11 targets in three games since coming back from the answering injury. Not to say you can't play Kittle, but I mean, I just feel like Jennings is like flashing red light jam play here against the Rams. I think he's I think he's awesome. I'll set out Marvin Harrison. I think it's somewhat interesting here. Yeah, I think if you're doing, I don't want to like full game stack, but if you're interested in Darnold, I would say, you know, Harrison's kind of interesting is like them pushing back a little waddle. I mean, Neil mentioned to a waddle that would be the way to play it. I think. And then Wanda Robinson, I kind of wrote up like is more interesting than I thought he'd be. I guess he's going to end up kind of being a little bit owned, which is, which is annoying. But he's, he ran like literally every round 100% round participation last week. He was in kind of more of a shallow a dot role last week. And yeah, he's, he's earning targets. He's, he's the clear number one there with neighbors out. And it's a, it's a really weak defense. So I think he's, he's somewhat interesting. Can I get anybody interested in fun digs with no location booty? Yes. You don't think it's pop Douglas season? Maybe he's not going to run enough rat. He's like, he's running like a third of the routes. Yeah, it's crazy. No, he had like a seven yards per route run this past week because he didn't run. Last week he had 7.69 yards per route run with 33% route participation. He's just like not on the field. He hasn't been higher than 42%. He's been back in week three was at 47. He started at 74. And then he's fallen into this really weird role. Last week, Kyle Williams was at 50% of the routes with booty out. And I think that's probably how they play it. Oh man, come, come save my best ball bags. Kyle Williams. I just throw another wide receiver name. What about Jameson Williams? I know that we've been waiting for so long, but sold. Say what? 4900. That's against the commanders, right? I think, yeah, I think maybe mentioned earlier, but like, you know, remember Trey Tucker, like just going absolutely naked. The commanders are a half yard worse than every other team in football and net adjusted yards per attempt allowed. Like they are unspeakably bad against the pass and they just lost their best corner to an ACL tear in that game. Oh, he was in his corner. Was he, was Latimore not their best? I just know Latimore had been playing like ass this year. I, I mean, he doesn't help, but yeah. That's all. Yeah. He was, he was pretty watched. Basically the thought, John, do you agree with this? You kind of want to play Jamo in a spot where the Lions can just dick around because then it means they can draw up the play where Jamo somehow gets wide open enough to score. We talked about that with like, with David Montgomery, was it going to Cincinnati that like, oh, we knew he's going to do something, right? He ended up throwing the touchdown pass. Like Dan Campbell is that guy, right? That's going to be like, that he's going to buy into the narrative himself. He's like probably going through Twitter, you know, like, you know, like reading narratives and it's like, oh, like James and Williams, you know, really having a down season. Like Williams didn't have a touchdown last week, but like they're going to be able to pick and choose what they want to do against this commander's defense. And then like, I've like much less faith in Marcus Mario to like this season, watching him so far that, you know, that the commanders might not be able to move the ball, but it might not matter to the Lions. Like they're going to do what they want to do. And if what they want to do is like, get James and Williams feeling good about himself, you know, rolling into the playoffs that like they're, yeah, they're just going to get him a big, long touchdown that's going to pay off at a $4,900 price tag. So he's a guy that's like, perennially or consistently under projected. And he's been matching that projection, you know, matching his projection most of the time so far this season, but yeah, he's going to have a breakout and, you know, better to be ahead of it, I think, than mine. I was hoping you would say some nice things about Stefan Diggs. Oh, digs. Yeah, just, you know, um, yes, Stefan Diggs. I just think it's primarily the idea that I don't know that the Patriots are going to be able to run the ball. So they're facing Tampa Bay. It's a pass funnel and they're down a wider sea with Kishan Booty. There is the, the fear of Kyle, Kyle Williams, the guy that wants Neil, that Neil wants to like save his best ball bags, right? They're like, somebody else just gets, you know, maybe it's a next man up or does stuff concentrate. And I think if stuff is going to concentrate, it's most likely to concentrate on Stefan Diggs. You know, like digs has been kind of found something each week to like save his fantasy score, but hasn't had a breakout, uh, but hasn't really had a crater, you know, or dud either. Uh, but, you know, this week, if there's a little bit more passing volume, like, I guess Diggs has been doing okay on low passing volume. Like, but what if this is the week that passing volume actually increases because of both the matchup and the injury situation? So like, I think Stefan Diggs is, is definitely in play. He's, and Diggs has always this season been priced much better on Fandall for what it's worth. Um, so I think he's excellent play over there. I think, but I think he's a play that we should be considering for draftings as well, even a little bit of a higher relative price tag. Uh, just, yeah, just because of the matchup in the injury situation. Um, can I throw out just a couple more names now that I haven't thought about it more? Uh, pay up to be contrarian. What do we think of Devonte Adams? Like he's way too close in price to Puka. So like I get why nobody wants to play Devonte Adams, but also a fantastic matchup with the 49ers. Like I, I think it's like sort of, sort of sneaky. Any interest there? In the like PFF's expected points model, he's basically identical to Puka because he gets, it's, it's different. It's fake. It's fake expected points though. It's Joe mix and expected points. There was a possession in the London game, but he actually scores. He's not mixing. Dude, there was a possession they threw to him in four straight plays in the end zone, four straight. I know we got to fix the expected points like that. That's worth 20 points. Like, no, it's not. Yeah. Um, I'm going to throw out one of the grossest names that I've thrown at you so far this year. Uh, Jerry Judy again, picking on that jets. I was really hoping we could somehow get through the show without mentioning that he's 3900 with fan and playing with an injured hamstring. Jerry Judy is 3900 with fan and playing with an injured hamstring. Uh, he was, he has not been targeted like much the past two games. It's been two, two and four targets, but 13 targets in week six, which is working on some kind of modern record for not throwing to quarter to wide receivers. I believe Reeves just told me, and if the stat is wrong, uh, he'll correct it later on angles and upside, but I believe his, he is targeting wide receivers on like less than 25% of his drop backs. That's, that is pretty insane. But as you mentioned, we do have harrow fan in question. That's a Dylan Gabriel stat. I mean, I think, I think that's a pop. I think that's a pop gun arm stat. Yeah. Yeah. It might also be the receivers are Jerry Judy and the guys. Isaiah Bond now out for this, for this week, by the way, Isaiah Bond out. We've got Tillman might be back. Tillman might be back. Yeah. He's got so that could throw a wrench at things. Then you could think, I don't think it throws a wrench at anything. Tillman. I mean, they all stink. Yeah. Yeah. What do we do with any of these guys? But like they're, they're so cheap. And, and again, this could just end up being one of those defenses. Like you said though, like Pat made the point earlier of like, they're probably just not going to throw the ball much in this game. I don't know. It's just like the, we did have 52 pass attempts three weeks ago. That was it. Yeah. It was with Stefansky calling plays, I believe 35 last week. I don't know. Just I'm just as a value play in a potentially good matchup. Just throwing it out. It's like a could be. Yeah. He's, he's a 19% target here talking about expected points. He's at, he's at 11.5 expected points. He's basically like half, half that he has six points per game and PPR. The last time I looked twice as much as he does. The last time I looked, he's pacing to set a modern day record for negative expected points. He had negative 46 expected points. And no one, I believe no one in the last like since best while Mania came around has been under negative 100 expected points for a whole year. And he was pacing to be negative 100 expected points. Impressive. I mean, that makes him a positive regression candidate. It does. It does. He's, he's been historically bad. What if he's just normally bad? Yeah. Yeah. I'll throw out some ugly names that guys that I like better, like Michael Wilson and Ray Ray McLeod at both at 3,300. I think they're both going to be pretty under the radar. But like, well, I will, since I think getting an upgraded at quarterback. Do you guys know what Ray McLeod's, uh, rapper participation was last week? 87% 92%. Yeah. He's on the Giants now, right? It's on the Giants now. Yeah. Yeah. Pretty good. Let me consider. And if I'm correct, like last week was his first active week for the Giants. Yeah. So like, there's no reason like why he can't take, take over more responsibility at just 3,300. Like what if he becomes one of the guys, like they don't leak neighbors. Yeah. We'll, we'll move on to the tight end position. Pat, we'll start with you. Is there anything catching your eye at tight end? One sec at tight end. Yeah. I mean, Trey McBride set up really well. This is, you know, like I, I kind of like McBride's been getting there on touchdowns, ironically with percent. He's four touchdowns in the last three games, but he also is still racking up targets. So kind of like Marvin Harrison is like a piece. If you're interested in this game, I wouldn't like double stack the, the Cardinals here. The Seattle's a really tough defense, but I have some interest in kind of one-off pieces, including McBride. Hunter Henry, I like a lot, 3500. That's probably my favorite stack. I do like Diggs, but, but May and Henry's probably a slight favorite for me there. Laporta, I think is interesting. I mean, if you look at the first read stuff, he's clearly the number two option in Detroit. Maybe that changes as they try to get Jameson, you know, morale boosted. But Laporta is the number two guy. It's like kind of their base, you know, baseline play calling. So I think he's, he's pretty interesting here. Kincaid should be really fun, but he's going to run like 48% of the routes, which is a bummer. And then George Kittle is just at some point going to smash, and it's a slate where we're like, where's the upside? Well, it might be George Kittle. He's going to be owned, but I get it. Didn't we have a thing on the show that like Free McBride's lack of touchdowns go back to high school? Like they're like, it's like, he just doesn't get touched. Because he's never played with Jacoby Rousseau before. Jacoby Rousseau comes in like four touchdowns in three games, like, maybe it wasn't Free McBride McBride McBride is like, okay, let me check my sheet. So I don't miss quote again, like I did with the other one. So I in my sheet McBride is four and a half points better than every other tight end. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Is that basically like your tight end thoughts is like Free McBride or Buster Trey McBride or find a guy who's going to score a touchdown and your guess is probably as good as mine. Yeah. I think it's a flow chart week. We've I think we've had this flow chart before, but like, can you afford Free McBride in your lineup? Like, if yes, play Trey McBride. If not, like, well, who, who is the tight end that goes with the quarterback in your lineup to play him. So yeah, it might be a might be a flow chart. Does your tight end play with Davis Mills? Don't play him. Don't play that guy. Yeah. Yeah, Neil, any, any other thoughts on the Tate end position? And I have a, I have a name or two to throw out. I think that I think that you just like kind of explained it perfectly. That is, is very much a flow chart week. I kind of came in like hot on wanting to play some David and joku with the assumption that hero fan and misses, which I still might do. Like we have seen Dylan Gabriel targeting the tight ends quite a bit mostly, mostly fan and, but if fan and misses, I think Gabriel and joku at 3200 becomes somebody that I'm going to have a lot of interest in. But yeah, for the most part, I think I agree that it's just like, there, there are a lot of like fine tight ends on the slate. No, no, like slam dunks other than true. Right. What about Joanne Johnson with Shahid gone? That's a good call. Target's concentrating a little bit. He's already at a 19% target share this year. 1.37 yards per hour. It's not great, but it's not terrible. It's got 10.4 expected points per game. Like he's at it. The role looked like it was gone. There's a three week stretch where he had target shares of 11, 15 and 8%, but it's back up over the last three weeks, 20, 23, 17 and 20% targets per outrun, just as good as he was to start the year, but it's like close. So Tyler shock is college roommate, right? It's literally, it's literally true. That, that, that is, that is not made up. Neil, Neil just said a true thing. Uh, Joanne Johnson, five year NFL veteran on his second contract college roommates with Tyler shock at Oregon. That's insane. I thought it was bullish. It's bearish. It's a bearish fact. Well, you know, it's a real bullish for this game though, bullish for this week. Yeah. Yeah. And the thing was shock is he was, his efficiency last week wasn't that bad. It was like Ratlery. So they might just be able to do what they've been. It's like the saints might just be kind of the saints despite the quarterback change where they're like, you know, not awful. They're just not good. Small correction act, not roommates, but they were teammates. I wanted to, I wanted to fact check myself. So teammates is, is bearish because it just means shock is really old roommates would be. Yeah, they don't really like each other that much. Right. Yeah. All right. I've got a tight end to throw out guy, first round draft pick, just had a breakout game with 32 draftings points at the head to tight end position. Are we really just going to not play Colson Loveland? Cause like, no, he's my favorite. No, he's my favorite. Cause I think you get a one week grace period before all the projection systems project, commit for like zero. Yeah. This is your, this is your grace period. This is your own, this is your kind of your last chance. And then I like it. Another name, what about Greg Dulcich? You're right here. He looked good in his first game. Yeah. They released Tanner Connor. Yeah, but I was, I was actually hoping to get someone else's perspective about this because Julian Hill missed last week and Julian Hill is back now. Also, like, so I, I'm wondering, does that mean that goals? Dulce goes back to running like seven rounds? Oh, it's kind of hard to, you know, to put the Greg Dulcich toothpaste back in the tube. That's right. He only had 47% round participation last week, which makes me nervous. You know, the coach was like, we want to get him like more involved as we go. Like we're going to see how ready he is after in the first game. So I think it might be like a positive trend there in the reputation. Is it really all that different than Waller coming in on the couch? That's what I was thinking. Like, do you think if Dulcich gets hurt, they're going to like sign Jordan Cameron? What's Jordan Reed doing? Jordan Reed available? Gary Barnage. He probably had to medically retire. Yeah. Right with Reed. Reed was concussions. It was sad. Yeah. I remember Reed catching a pass, the first pass of the season for the commanders watching the football team at the time and like just getting up and celebrating and pulling a hamstring and missing the next season. If you run any filters on pro football reference for like young tight ends, like rookie tight ends, first two year tight ends, it'll be like Gronk, Mike Ditka, Brock Bauer's, Jordan Reed. It's insane how good he was. I have a memory of listening to Living the Stream, talking, listening to JJ and Danny talk about Jordan Reed as I was in my, no, I was in the East Village in an apartment in an apartment that didn't have a window. I had a window that looked out onto like a chute that just went down to the bottom of the building and it didn't go outside. Anyway, Jordan. All right. Now we've had our Jordan Reed nostalgia. Any closing thoughts on the leaks from anyone? Last week was kind of like a play whoever you want because there were so many good spots. And this week, I don't think it is that way because it feels so likely that one of McCaffrey, JSN, or Puka delivers like you had to have them because there, how many guys are even going to score over 30 this week? Right. Maybe we might have zero. Like if McCaffrey and JSN and Puka kind of just have average games, this might be like 189 takes down the spy and it was just like the just the right stack. So I probably will be pretty focused on using one of those three guys. And then maybe like over stacking makes sense this week, like five guys from a game to just try and capture the right game environment. I like the slate because you can go. This is a slate where you have total permission to talk yourself into stuff where it's like this. This, I see upside here. I'm going to chase it. It's like it could be terrible. Like this game could actually suck or this player is really fragile, but you have total permission like Rashad Bateman, man, you're into that play. There's lots of different ways you can go because hunting for upside is how I think we win this slate. It's hitting on upside other people didn't see. So I think it's kind of a fun week. Yeah. I was just actually going to say that like, Davis, I think you took the word right out of my mouth of over stacking that I think that not much is differentiating itself. So I'd much rather go with the correlation, like over stack. And then like when you're like over stack, you're getting down to like the third wide receiver or whatever, like you're playing Rashad Bateman over somebody else. It's like more expensive. And then that allows you to pay up for like Christian McCaffrey or Pukar, Jason or whoever your guy is. And then like, yeah, one of those guys is going to deliver like a 30 point performance. So you're basically over stacking. You're trying to hit on the right upside guy. And I think that's, that's the week. 100%. That that was exactly what I was going to say also. Yeah. All right. We'll leave it there in the chat that says this slate encourages very bad decisions. That's right. Like it's out of payment. Yeah. All right. On that note, we'll get out of here. Good. Thanks everybody for tuning in. Hope to catch you next week. Good luck this weekend. Hope to see you at the top of the leaderboards and we're out of here.