The Best Trade Is Still Ahead with Jordi Visser | Raoul Pal The Jounry Man
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In this conversation, Raoul Pal and Jordy Visser discuss macro, crypto, AI, and tokenization. Jordy argues the widespread fear about a bond market collapse is overblown, pointing to strong profit margins, rising PMIs, weak hiring, and healthy global bank stocks as evidence of productivity rather than crisis. He believes yields will stay anchored and the curve will steepen, with the inflation component gradually replaced by productivity. Both agree AI is creating a mismatch between exponential growth in earnings and the slower, human-speed legacy debt world, which traditional GDP cannot capture. Tokenization emerges as a central theme: all assets, funds, and AI agents will move on-chain, increasing capital velocity and disrupting asset management, with fees collapsing and large firms like Millennium and D.E. Shaw best positioned to adapt first. Jordy notes AI agents create infinite demand on time and money, with Raoul spending $11,000 monthly on top of his subscription, so AI does not free up time. They also discuss humanoids, energy and compute bottlenecks, and why Bitcoin remains the ultimate scarce store of value, with Ethereum likely to outperform during the tokenization boom.
The issue is this which people don't understand is once you start leaning into this stuff your
actual constraint is still the same which is there is more demand and last month they spent 11 grand
on top of my max subscription this is what people don't understand it's almost well it is infinite
demand it's infinite demand and the more you use it the more it fills up and that's why anyone who
thinks that they're going to get free time from ai it's the opposite my time is completely saturated
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hi i'm raoul pal and welcome to my show the journeyman the journeyman as you know by now
is where we travel to that nexus of understanding of macro crypto and the exponential age of
technology
about once a quarter i always have a fantastic conversation with a very good friend of mine
jordy visser jordy and i same background the hedge fund world investment banks and we both leapt into
the world of crypto and technology and overlay it with our macro thinking it's always a great
conversation i'm sure you're going to enjoy it but before we get to today's show this episode is
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macro crypto and exponential age landscapes in the journeyman i talk to the smartest people
in the world so we can all become smarter together jordy visser how the devil are you
raul i'm great how you doing good glasses off for you just um yeah i had surgery i've
got rid of my glasses finally i had you had laser surgery because i'm an old man
and i can now see it's amazing yeah i had i had lasik surgery i don't know if it's
maybe 12 years ago now it was great for the first five years and then you know you need
readers anyway so yeah exactly it's uh but it's amazing the technology right it's just
amazing you just get that done so what's happening with you what's on your mind right now
i always love our chats because i have no idea where they're going to go we just go somewhere
well rather than start with um with crypto and and ai um let's let's talk bonds um okay interesting
where where my brain is i i i literally believe this is the most the biggest marketing scam i've
ever seen in terms of people so fixated on this quote-unquote collapse in bonds around the globe
on 30-year yields and i think this is a social media thing more than than anything and it only
hit me when someone said something to me and said have you looked at the charts of u.s bonds and i
went well yeah i look at the total return of them all the time and they're down 3 year-to-date for
the 20-plus etf this is not a big move but because you have these charts showing well this is the
highest yield in the last 20 years and i i got into a discussion recently with someone we both
know and they said how are you not concerned about this uh with regards to ai and the capital build
out and i've heard you talk about some of this stuff and i said when did it become this thing
where when pmi's around the globe are are going higher when profits are are not only soaring but
they're at levels almost unprecedented but they are unprecedented when you put the fact that we're
not hiring anyone that employment is barely growing and we're at recessionary type hiring
levels profit margins are expanding don't you think you might be missing something and oh by
the way if you would have sold the neat guy last may when they hit their highs in 30-year yields
you'd be down 70 or missing 70 so that's where my head is right now is i think this this bond yield
panic
that everyone has that i think ray dalio and everyone's gone in and then you know the op-ed
from druk i think it just has a a big focus and can besant actually keep this in check when the
reality is we've been through enough cycles that yields going higher is probably going to mean a
lot of weaker places companies go out of business but that was going to happen with ai anyway so i
don't view this as a negative thing i view it as a positive yeah i mean i just a i think business
made it pretty clear that
he needs i mean really it's a supply issue because you've got the ai guy you know the
hyperscalers now issuing and the government issuing and you basically need a weaker dollar
for the foreign central banks to buy bonds and he's gone over to japan and he's gone to china
and he's gone to south korea and he's gone to the uae he's sorted out swap lines and i think he's
got an agreement with the chinese is look we're trying to lower the dollar and then the interview
in the end so you know he's a macro guy we've known him for a long time and you know what he's
up to and then he's gone around he's a bond salesman so he has to go around and find a place
for these bonds and so i just think that yeah they're going to be pretty anchored in the end
but what everybody needs is a steeper yield curve so they kind of do need the wash part of the
equation and i think wash is playing the game which is he's got to sound credible and tight
but he knows and besant keeps saying the inflation number
is going to be weaker than expected and productivity is going to be stronger
and you know besant saying things like i'm armed with inside information and so you kind of feel
that wherever the rates are um we're kind of in the range where they should unlikely to go higher
you know i look at d mark a lot as indicators they're stacking up on the weeklies dailies
monthlies it's very close to that reversal when it's peak fear um and it doesn't do much
to most people as you said there is an old economy that is heavily in debt and over time
that's going to get into trouble there's a lot of these credit funds and all of that stuff
that needs clearing at some point i don't think it clears now i think it clears at some at some
point down down the road from the the nexus of both ai and this and and yield so i kind of still
looking for the weaker dollar and a steeper yield curve and just see how it goes from there and that
to your japan
point is that's exactly what japan did is they engineered a steep yield curve and guess what
the bank started lending if you're gonna if we're gonna finance this massive capex boom boom you need
the banks to be lending it's as simple as that and they need a steeper yield curve and whatever it
is 40 basis points it's just not enough and again if if if i was worried about things i'd be looking
at how bank stocks are trading around the globe and bank stocks around the globe are up you know
30 year over year
so you know i'm a big believer in and you know in when people talk about the fact that the market
is a discounting mechanism i've always subscribed to that and i believe the rate of change of the
stock prices would tell you the same way that earnings and profit margins should mean revert
if we're heading into a problem you should see hiring going through but if you're not hiring
anyone and revenues are growing and you have a fiscal deficit and you have all this spending
happening from the private sector
you know we can all get worried um but i i just don't see it as something i i want to bring
something up to you because i've just one sec just to go back on that i'm not sure if it was you who
mentioned it or somebody else that if you want evidence of productivity it's the point you're
exactly raising record earnings and low employment and that's i mean that is your answer the other
thing on productivity i just want to mention is i wrote a whole article in gmi about amazon and used
an example of what the global economy would look like if they adopted ai and robotics to its core
right because that's what amazon's done since over the last eight years or so they've completely
turned into a productivity machine where their kind of earnings are now going up their margins
are going up because they've employed this technology and it's like that's proof of what
the world will look like when people catch up amazon's just a pioneer yeah and i i heard you
mention that and i don't remember which interview or which thing i think you were actually talking
to someone and then you brought it up and it reminded me of you know i went out to silicon
valley to kind of migrate away from the traditional macro way i'd approach things back in 2013 and the
reason was this collision between two things one was the debt-filled let's just grow at any pace
chinese i i viewed them as the caboose of this kind of debt-fueled world they built out all the cities
and i realized that's it they've got a demographic issue just like the western world they have a debt
problem that they're going to have to basically find a way to burn off over time and i went out
to silicon valley because amazon didn't make any sense to me in 2013. i didn't understand how a
company could trade in an infinity pe and really smart people were convincing me that it was
you you're not getting it so i had to go there and that changed my mind i went to
popularity university and that's the the beginning stage of me believing that where we are now
there's a time mismatch and i really do believe this the reason the nick i think is so important
to me so may of last year the nick 30-year yields and the jgbs break through all-time highs if you
go search in grok and you say show me all the the posts that came out in x around the peak of this
you'll get a zero hedge one saying the world is going to blow up this is the biggest thing yen
carry trade the yen carry trade all this stuff and here we are um you know 18 months later and
the nikai is off the highs so this is not me saying at the peak this is it's still up 70 percent from
that point and the reason it's important is i really do believe we have one side of the equation
that's moving at exponential speed and then we have all of the old legacy world even the debt
which is based on human speed and the problem is if you're growing on one side so fast if
you're able to grow earnings but not hire people gdp doesn't know how to capture that yet we don't
have a way to capture that how are we growing earnings and revenues so fast and not hiring
anyone and if people say well we're hiring some people demographics if you strip out health care
which will be the last of the things that will be greatly impacted by ai there's no hiring and
there hasn't been any hiring for 20 months now so the question comes in profit margins are
definitely a way to look at it but i think this mismatch
between something moving so fast that you can't comprehend what arr means in anthropic and open
ai and cursor before we've never seen these types of movements and then on the other side oh debt's
up again we're up another trillion dollars but it's growing at a pace far slower than the
exponential side and that's where i think the mismatch is and what about the old way we used
to look at bonds was just nominal gdp so maybe you know how i'm thinking about this
is yes you know financial repression means they want to keep bond yields below nominal gdp fine
but they should have a tendency to rise and we'll probably swap out the inflation component
for the productivity component that's kind of my working roadmap yeah and you you know this
as well as i do but historically basically before 1997 treasury yields 10-year yields
usually traded about 200 basis points above nominal gdp so nominal gdp right now is
it's six percent in the u.s year over year six and change so theoretically using the pre-97 time we
should be up at eight and a half percent well we're not up at eight and a half we're four and
three quarters so we're already trading below now this started that switch off started in 1997 now
that was the asian financial crisis which was the original cause but that was also when we started
this whole okay the demographic shift the the debt is now increasing and at the same time that was
really when the internet started to change and that was when the internet started to change
and that was when the internet started to become an investable thing and all of those things kind
of line up and that's where i think everyone's just getting way over their skis on looking at
the bond market and believing that ai can't continue to grow and i know you know this but
most people don't the interest cost for them whether they pay six percent eight percent nine
percent it doesn't change their profits on their business this is such a small profits went up for
most of the hyperscalers because they have cash now they don't have as much cash but
yeah they made a fortune from it yeah and that's the whole of japan by the way the whole of japan
every household is a saver so you're giving them extra money which people don't realize yeah and
so inflation will stay above the two percent it will freak people out but i view this as an academic
argument i just think people are using their history books they're using a time where if the
consumers of the world the growers of the world were human beings that's one thing but we have
billions of ai agents over the next 12 years and we're not going to be able to do that we're not
12 months billions and now with grok and the ability to just create i mean i've created more
ai agents in the past whatever it's been 10 days since i started using it i can't stop coming up
with ideas so if you look at it now i'm running into the problem a lot of people are which is i
have 75 agents and i i got to make sure that i remember who's who that's my biggest issue so
we're just yeah i'm gonna have to create a even on my claude i had to create a coo to manage all
of my agents because exactly full-time fucking job because they keep breaking or disappearing or
whatever so i've got that and then i'm using the grok one and i'm already at like six agents only
started three days ago it's insane the issue is is which people don't understand is once you start
leaning into this stuff your actual constraint is still the same which is there is more demand
and what happened to me is like i started having to pay for fable five and it went from like a
couple of grand and last month i spent 11 grand on top of my max subscription i'm like this is what
people don't understand it's almost well it is it's almost like it's almost like it's almost
infinite demand it it's infinite demand and the more you use it the more it fills up and that's
why um anyone who thinks that if they're still working in any kind of way that they're going to
get free free time from ai it's the opposite um my time is completely saturated it's filled it's
taken away from watching sports a lot of other things but it just shows how much i like learning
how much i like being on top of what's going on and i'm starting to spend all of my time on
top of what's going on and i'm starting to spend all of my time on top of what's going on and i'm
doing these weekly videos and i've been starting to migrate more towards the importance of
tokenization in in a broader scale um i've never had more fun learning a topic and connecting it
back to the world that we grew up in and the impact that it's going to have and especially
as we're seeing countries start to go through the same race for different reasons that china and the
united states are going through right now and so i think it's really important that people don't
adopt the blockchain for all of their assets quickly their capital markets will worsen and
capital markets are now becoming one of the topics that everyone cares about because we need to raise
money so the depth of the markets to take capital the democratization of everyone being able to
invest has become more important so tokenization becomes a very important solution to the problems
we're having with the 10-year yield um it really is hey i want to go raise debt well let's pocket
this in something where eight billion people are going to be able to invest in it and it's going to
go up and people can buy it as opposed to just isolate it to a few few places even though they
have a lot of money so i think tokenization and this whole um ability to learn about what's going
on connect it back i'm having the best time with this what do you think happens with the asset
management complex because let's say debt okay let's say corporate debt so corporate debt tends
to get aggregated into funds that then get bought by pension plans um maybe in a 401k but rarely
because they they tend to be um only available to accredited investors and that kind of stuff
so what happens to all of those people in that chain they have to adapt or die right
they have to adapt or die it's deflationary obviously um because the one thing about
the industry of asset management is and we all know this we make returns we don't make things
and those returns are judged by someone
on whether they can understand them because if if they did it based on true historical returns
then bitcoin would be much higher than it is today because it's been the best performing asset
over the last 15 years if it was a hedge fund and it had a human being describing what it did
and you had the same returns as bitcoin it would be many many trillions dollars more than it is
today but because it's a black box there's no story there's no narrative human beings have a
hard time the one thing about asset management is that younger people are very comfortable not
having a human being deal with them and so the way that i viewed this is it will take some time
but this is a massive disruption to asset managers and let me break it into two parts the one part
you're saying is if you believe in diversification if you believe that by investing in 10 000 assets
that are possibly yielding between 8 and 10 the diversification of choosing things that get paid
off movie royalties that get paid think about every single thing you can and you diversify
and everyone you're
choosing from is returning eight to ten percent with a good sharp ratio but they're completely
uncorrelated you are by definition creating a better return stream that'll have no volatility
you're basically replicating what the millenniums and the citadels have been able to do over time
and so i think that that's the thing people are missing is it might take a little time but
eventually the diversification opportunities the instant ability to find this many strategies
and find a thousand of them because when you meet a pension fund their biggest issue is
why i can't find a manager that can handle the money that i have
and still generate the returns well if you can invest in every single person in the philippines
and everything like that through democratization you can create an eight to ten percent return
stream with a two vol and all of a sudden now you have all this money but the other thing raul and i
think this is the most important thing for you and i we grew up and we've traded markets overnight
and as macro people it's very tiring it's a young person's business
oh japan moved i'm still scarred by fucking tokyo in the
middle of the night dollar yen blowing up he's like oh god you're woken up yeah that's why i laughed
so and and again i remember that too like you you go to bed hoping the phone doesn't ring
hoping nothing happens well think about when it's 24 7 starting this year and it already has started
with iran hyper liquid with um the spacex ipo like i don't think people realize it is not a human
being's game to have 24 7 trading and what that is going to mean for stop losses and
emotional decisions, no sleep.
So I just think the disruption is gonna come from human
Realizing they can't play a game that the bots can play better.
And how I look at it like a macro level, and interesting to hear your views on this, is let's take an asset management firm, an aggregator firm like Millennium.
So what does Millennium do?
There's the mothership, which allocates capital, compliance, all of the operational functions.
And then you've got a bunch of pods, which is return streams, of which there's a quite large diversity.
All of those essentially become, whether it's individuals or individuals' agents.
And the mothership doesn't need all the massive infrastructure because everything's tokenized.
So it kind of changes that entire asset management game.
And we could do that for. Everything, a pension plan, everything, not just a hedge fund.
It's the same thing.
And it completely disrupts the whole system and where the fees are earned and who earns the fees and how it accrues.
As you said, it's deflationary more than anything else because the fees are just going to collapse.
Yeah.
And the great thing for. Let's use Millennium and D.E. Shaw and take ones that are much more bot-driven already and then ones that are using technology and AI inside their business.
And let's just say they're the perfect places for the AI.
They're the perfect places for the AI agents to basically, I don't want to say disrupt their business, but they have a story to tell.
And they have a black box.
They don't give you the details of every single thing.
They don't go through it.
You're in a long-term lockup.
They have the ability of kind of building out the agentic side with inside, reducing their cost structure dramatically.
Marshall Weiss just announced that they've been doing this.
Yeah.
And I think they're the natural places to basically do this.
They have the money to do it.
So they already have the technology.
They already have all the engineers.
So I think they'll be the ones first that are actually disrupting everything.
They'll be competing more with retail.
But I think you're going to see the rest of the business kind of go through this.
It'll just happen, like you said before.
It's a merging of two worlds.
It's the human side merging with the bot side.
And it's going to happen together.
And the bigger places have the first advantage because they can do it very easily and very cheaply.
And what's weird is people hear the term tokenization.
They only get so far, oh, yes, equities are going to go on chain.
Or, oh, yes, I can get rid of my shitty credit fund by putting it on chain and selling it to end customers because I've got no buyers.
But they don't realize how disruptive this is because everything, all funds will go on chain.
People's return streams will go on chain.
AI agents will go on chain.
They all become investable.
And a, velocity of capital goes up violently.
That's another thing.
Yeah.
And so you and I have talked about this before, and I think we're both on the same page as this.
What I believe tokenization will be a year from now is a recognition by everyone that what's happening in the stock market right now.
So I use NVIDIA as, like, the example.
NVIDIA has blown away earnings since October of last year.
But as of yesterday's close, and let's just say a couple days after their most recent earnings, the stock was effectively unchanged from October.
And when the most recent earnings report came out, they blew away numbers in a way we've never seen before.
I mean, the street was expecting 44% revenue growth for next year, and they said it's going to be 70.
And that was the company, I'm sure, handcuffing this like they all do to some degree.
So the stock had moved.
And every earnings report that's good now, if you were a trader in the late 90s and even the early 2000s, if a company beat.
By that much, you expect to get rewarded for it.
I don't think that's happening anymore.
And so I showed on my most recent video that if you take NVIDIA relative to the S&P, it's basically up.
It's outperformed the S&P by, I think, 40% over the prior two years, 26 months.
But there was one corridor of four months where that entire outperformance happened.
The rest of the 20 months, it did nothing.
And what that tells me is if volumes and volatilities.
Are going up, the toll collectors are going to start making the money, even if it's a tenth of a basis point, a hundredth of a basis point.
And this is where crypto fits in.
I don't think you can match up fundamentals in terms of the narrative with the performance anymore.
And so if you can't create alpha by just saying this company is going to beat earnings and this is going to go through the way you could in the past, then I think toll collectors are going to make the money because it's just a lot of spinning your wheels.
And no one really making any money betting on this.
Stuff you get paid as the house by the volume and less about this.
This is where I think it's going over the next few years.
Yeah, I think I'm a big believer that almost everything will end up being a marketplace.
So, you know, even the platform like real vision will become a marketplace for, you know, investing in people.
But then at a bigger level, if you think what are the agents consume?
Well, they obviously consume energy and compute.
Um, but the other thing they consume and people haven't put this too.
Two together is data.
They need more and more data over time.
And so that means that an agent driven data marketplace is probably the biggest marketplace that will ever exist because all information has to be absorbed into the beast for it to grow from AGI to ASI, right?
Doesn't you have to, and so it's going to suck in every single piece of information that is possibly has some informational value and they'll trade at different prices and.
Who gets the monopoly on the data, who doesn't, and that will all be a hidden market.
We won't even see it.
There's no prices on a screen.
It just happens.
Yeah, luckily for all of us, um, it'll take such a long time to get to that because of the video side, meaning the ability of taking in everything that we see and comprehend, which is far more data than the actual data in a computer screen.
We're just not at the, we're not at the data center side of the video side.
We don't have pure human.
No, it's ability to navigate through everything in the street and it's going to take a lot of data.
It's going to take a lot more compute.
Only reason I bring it up is, um, I have started to recognize that the merging of these two, if it wasn't for the compute shortage that we have right now, relative to the capabilities and the acceleration of the intelligence, uh, it would be a much more dystopian world.
I'm becoming less worried about the world merging together because of the friction of politics, because of the friction of human.
Beings, because of the bottleneck frictions of physics, all of these things are actually making it more comfortable for me that we won't get to the point of.
AGI happening too fast.
It'll happen.
It probably already has happened depending on your, it already has happened depending on your definition, but the merging of the worlds of humans in this, it's giving us enough time to actually think about it and go through the thought process while we're worrying about how it's going to play out.
Uh, and so I'm, I'm getting more comfortable that the frictions are good, not bad.
Yeah, I agree.
We're seeing the rise of world models versus LLMs and I think the whole thing verges, but you know, I'm here in Napa, I've rented a Tesla and I haven't actually driven once.
I haven't touched the pedal.
It just drives your, you know, so a lot of it's here already and people don't realize it.
What Google's been able to train off video itself.
There's a lot there.
And then you're seeing, there was yesterday, I think it was called Atlas.
Did you see that?
There's a video generation model.
I mean, these are wild now.
You cannot tell what's film.
What's not film.
So it's, you can see all the component parts are just blending together, but you say, as you say, I mean, it's a lot of compute and we just don't have it.
Yeah, we don't have it.
And that's why from an investable standpoint, we're, we're, we're never, we're not going to get to the point that we can overbuild because we're just, I mean, we can make short term.
We could overbuy things and we could have inventories grow up, but we're not going to use all the compute because we need so much of it for everything in there whenever you come up.
With, oh, I guess there, there will be enough compute because we've reached this point and you realize, no, the world models and everything else.
And then when you hear how much more compute, I just think that the part, and it was probably Emad that I heard speak recently, uh, who you've had on a bunch of times.
And I know, you know, well, where he was a little bit more concerned, uh, and I don't know how much of this was the book he wrote and how much is actually what he believes, but humanoids are going to take.
Some time.
And they're the ones that I focus a lot of the attention on.
Yes.
I know we will have humanoids.
Yes.
I know by 2030, they might be more than is in my head now, but before they're driving their own car to the delivery before all of these things, politicians and human beings have to get comfortable with this and full self-driving is already here, but it's not accepted.
You don't see these cars on the road and that should be the easiest one.
That argument of less people will die should be enough.
But because of that, I don't know how humanoids don't take a lot longer to be integrated into society.
Yeah.
And if you think about how long it's taken Elon to train the cars to do what they do.
Yep.
And he's got to get Optimus out.
And yes, there's, you know, abilities have increased, but they'll only be put in specific things first, you know, on a factory line or in a service center or whatever it is at first, because they just don't have the compute capacity to, they have the intelligence because they've got the LRT.
They don't have the MLMs, but they don't have the visual spatial awareness that they need to navigate the normal world, the human world.
restricted environments they can still scale massively there but as you said we're a long way
from robots walking down the street you know delivering coffee in humanoid format it's already
happening in you know in other robots you see them in streets everywhere now delivering stuff
so where where i've started this point is really important for people to hear when they start
thinking about the concept of ppi and input costs because i've started to think more and more about
how humanoids their their most important function over the next five years is going to be in mines
it's going to be in all parts of dangerous jobs related to manufacturing there's no doubt about
it um china's already doing this if you go look up mining and the reason i was doing this is
because when i get in discussions and people go gold or bitcoin i go bitcoin every single time
and they go well you but you believe in gold and i went you didn't ask me that if you ask me what
i think will outperform it's because and actually one of the most
famous macro investors we got to a long discussion about this in the last 48 hours so my video came
out he wanted to talk about bitcoin he wanted to talk about tokenization but then it migrated and
i said but don't you understand that if we can find more gold and get it easier because of
humanoids then the capacity of gold goes up the reason i'm more interested in bitcoin is because
it's chosen by human beings like gold there's a community of people that believe in it but it's
the digital side and there's a scarcity element to it that is real
he wanted to talk about the disruption of hacking and things like that and i got him to the point of
ai will hack everything that your brain can think of including gold it will hack it it already has
hacked it at cern it's only a question of can we get enough hacking in there to actually change the
ability of the supply side of anything and he agreed by the time the end that you can't pick
one and say ai is going to hack this but not hack something else so i think humanoids is going to
have a bigger impact on the input cost of commodities and that's getting us closer to
abundance of cheaper commodities so i i've started to believe especially with things like oil and
copper and all these things people might be underestimating how we're we're going to grow
in these but i don't think it's ever going to go parabolic so a quick break in your regular
programming if you're serious about your future grab my free report called prepare for 2030
i think you've got five years to make as much money as possible and this guide will help you
what's coming the link is in the description download it now so let's just go back to the
bottleneck of energy because this is something we all need to think through i agree with you
one of the things i think we have a we might have talked about this before an extended or super cycle
here it's because you can't have the excess because you can't build the data centers fast
enough and then you've got this the political weird slant in the u.s that people don't want to
data center i don't know what they think data centers are apart from just fucking buildings i
mean it's the it's the weirdest thing so i'd love to hear about the energy bottleneck and
the u.s political slant all of this which i just can't get my head around so i my head has gotten
to the point on this that i'm less i've become much less worried about the the data center side
in terms of it being a political issue because it has forced just like
um with china the way deep sea came out of uh innovation i don't think people give enough
credit to how much the behind the meter innovation has been out of control in the u.s for building the
data centers we have more natural gas than we need we have pipelines in many many locations
that don't have to deal with the the data centers so i think a lot of these issues are because data
centers were going to be built in places that were probably more vulnerable to this and since
that time since when you start and announce a data center and you're going to do it somewhere
near a town um and it takes a year to get going and go through all the well since then with colossus
and all of the behind the meter solutions that have come out i just think whether it's taking
turbines from old airplanes and then turning them into gas turbine whatever the case is the
innovation has been through the roof and so i think we've solved let's say the the ultimate
problem which is we just move to areas that are better
the demand for it still grows exponentially but that fits back into the problem of
if it was able to be built we'd have more data centers being built right now without the
bottlenecks of turbines and all these problems so again i'm going to err on the side that we don't
want it to go too fast we i just think it would be a much bigger negative for the capital markets
then you'd really see the pressure on the bond market um i think too much too soon is probably
a bad thing and we probably get an overbuild so i'm going to view the data centers again the
friction as being a positive
yeah i'm of the same route there so what else are you looking at right now what talk what are you
let's go back to the tokenization conversation jumping around a bit so you initially when you
came into crypto was very you were very focused on bitcoin and you know once it becomes understandable
it's a very logical asset now when you're seeing through the world of tokenization where's your
head going to here in what that future world looks like because i think that's important because a lot
of people don't understand this because they're used to seeing the world of tokenization and
they're used to the world where they were like competing things and that they're not really
anymore no i i this this journey um and i get i think starting as a as a let's say a bitcoin as an
asset and a maxi type person and just not believing in uh at the time in the innovation side and i i
still have that belief that if you ask me over the next 20 years what am i most certain of it's that
bitcoin will still be here and it will be the best asset
i don't know if any of the other tokens will still be growing at that point in value but there will be
innovations along the way and that's what i've kind of come to the conclusion of and this goes
for public equities as well so where i've got with tokenization is just the importance of it i spoke
at the new york stock exchange uh to just a grouping of korean brokers retail like a hundred
of them that were there tokenization is real it's going to happen and it is a race and this is one
of the things that i recognize that i've been doing for a long time and i've been doing it for a long time
i don't hear enough people talk about we all hear about ai as a race and the pressure it's putting on
but i don't think people realize that tokenization and having it in your country having everything
on chain is going to become more critical so if you're lagging and you're not on chain your assets
are not there it hurts your market it hurts the ability for people to buy it because they're going
to be using their wallet this stuff is all going to happen it's much cheaper to do they can invest
quickly the programmable nature of it has become something that i've spent enough time on and just
realized the value of it from so many different things how it should be so when i've thought about
just what a portfolio will look like in the merging of the way old school public equities and debt is
with tokenization the fact that to actually get to tokenization of real world assets you actually
had to get tokenization first of the cash and collateral you needed money market funds you
need treasury so you kind of go through the evolution and you realize whoa we're there
and some of the new products and i think this is because of robin hood in particular
i just think robin hood is a perfect place for the merging of what's kind of crypto and not kind
of crypto i think they're a perfect middle ground to have the community they have a trip i don't
know if you've been to any of their events they have a strong community like people love their
community and people love the real village real vision community like communities are really
important but having a community where their chain is growing rapidly on the tokenization
side in a short amount of time and you're seeing those volumes and you're seeing those volumes and
you're seeing those volumes and you're seeing those volumes i just think people are
underestimating the importance of globally people wanting to trade 24 7 hoping that liquidity is
around the clock and that it is being and i think this is all part of the way the world is going to
be so i have been um completely taken taken back by it uh and the questions i'm now getting asked
by macro people are really good ones what happens to the dollar in tokenization like that question
i don't know if you've thought about it it's a great question to have i want to raise the
question i don't know if you've thought about it it's a great question to have i want to raise the
this for a bit because where my head is at with all of this is there's one country has the most
attractive assets in the world right now it's the united states the moment you put it on chain
the equity market it just attracts even more capital it crowds everybody out and the dollar
is the same because the dollar now goes to the end of the line to the individual when it had to
go through the euro dollar markets before that's all gone so you know if i think when people talk
about the the collapse of the euro dollar market it's all gone so you know if i think when people talk
about the the collapse of the dollar whatever my view has been and the same with brent johnson
is that it dies of its own of its strength because if you do that the dollar will be so strong it's
already been strong over the last decade and a half over time just cyclical um but if you're
going to get every investor because why would you bother to invest in you know some european
you know whatever it is packaging company when you can buy nvidia
it's like it's very hard or spacex it's very hard not to attract all of the capital
so although i agree from a so i've broken this down into two parts you're you're bringing up
the transaction part and the um if people have to invest the the issue is right now uh 75 percent
of the investing dollars of the world via msci world are in the u.s already so from an equity
basis they're already there i have very few investors in the u.s who are investing in the
viewed public equities as being an issue relative to entrepreneurs. So 10 years from now,
I don't think U.S. equities, the growth perspective, is going to be the same that way people see them now.
I think entrepreneurs around the globe who use AI, of which countries that are poorer, in my opinion, are adopting AI faster.
They're using AI faster, and the reason is because they want to and they have to.
And so I know you remember this.
I have viewed the Axie Infinity example as something everyone needs to go study and just realize that that example of how an economy grows virtually,
people need to think about that with tokenization, in my opinion, because I studied that.
That's what originally got me so interested in crypto.
The ecosystem was what was happening with Axie Infinity.
The other part of the dollar is control.
So from a geopolitical basis, tokenization and all of these things,
I think the control goes down.
It goes down because of stable coins and all this.
So I agree that there's a positive force of the dollar.
I think there's a negative force, which is the more that everything goes on chain, the less control the U.S. has over SWIFT, the less the U.S. has control over sanctions.
And then it just becomes something where over time there's no such thing as a collapse.
I view everything as dollars will migrate and distribute around the globe, and it'll take a while for entrepreneurs to compete with Google, but they will.
They'll compete with everyone.
So it's a gradual kind of growth.
It's a growing of the private entrepreneur market and a shrinking of the enterprise market.
It's the old trend of bundling, unbundling, centralization, decentralization.
And that's what's happened.
I mean, look at what you and I are doing ourselves with AI.
We would have hired a company to build these things for us.
It would have taken us six months, nine months.
It wouldn't have been perfect.
And now we're just doing it on the fly.
And that's showing you the direction of travel is the centralized approach.
And everything is about to go.
Now, there's going to be some centralized players.
I mean, good luck trying to disrupt SpaceX.
But, you know, yes, but I agree with you.
I think AI and crypto, those are the two most powerful parts of it, is they are truly decentralizing.
They are borderless.
It allows people to not think about things the way that we all think about them because of the way we grew up.
And I already think kids are down that path because of the way things have been.
I think that's what's happening.
The way things have been with video games, the way things were with every single part of kind of the growth of crypto in 2021 and 2022 during COVID.
We will all look back on that as the beginning of really this move into the virtual world for the younger generation in a very big way into crypto.
I know with my son, that's when he first got into it.
And it drove me into it because I didn't think the metaverse made sense other than the fact that I watched him play video games.
And he was already in the metaverse in 2016.
And this was just another extension.
So we forgot all those things.
I know you're heavy into NFTs.
NFTs fit into that as well.
I just think that it will take some change.
But the one thing that has always lasted with all human beings, regardless of their age, at the end of the day, if nothing is growing except for the digital world, then people will invest in the digital world.
That's it.
If you want growth in investing, that's where you'll be.
I was just thinking, this morning was a great example of how the world has changed so much.
So I've built this kind of huge GMO.
My portal within Real Vision that has charts and analysis and AI compression to make sense of it all, all of this stuff across the different tiers.
And my AI checks the inbox, the bugs at globalmacroinvestor.com.
And it pinged me this morning and said, there's a couple of really good ideas in there that people should be able to go around all these dashboards and tick their favorite charts.
And it should create a new page with their favorite charts and whatever.
I said, it's a great idea.
Let's build it.
Let's build it.
And I, from getting.
That email to shipping it to everybody was 40 minutes of which I wasn't doing anything apart from occasionally talking into my whisper, and it's launched on Real Vision.
And I'm like, holy fuck, imagine what that would be like before you'd have to call up the company.
You'd have to have meetings with them.
You know, I want to develop this.
They come back and you just, I mean, the collapse in time and cost of developing stuff is stupid.
Yeah.
And obviously.
Obviously, uh, learning, and that's really been my, that's been my big thing has been how quickly I can learn a particular topic because of YouTube, because of, uh, the ability of going into X and now not having to search and not know what's there, but actually going to grok and say, give me the best posts on this particular topic and have it give it to me using and creating a knowledge brain and connecting into the YouTube API and creating the last 20.
Um, video transcripts of Jensen, you Wong or of Raul power, whomever, and then to really get through this, it has gotten to the point where book, since I launched my subscriber side and I get so many questions, I don't want to give people the answers.
I want to give them basically the ability of doing it themselves.
And so my, my thought has been empowerment and with grok bot, it hit me so hard when I started to use it.
And so this, you know, the past week I'd had so many people reach out after a video where I showed up.
I showed them all my age.
And so like, should I really get started?
And I literally said, here's the deal guys.
I'm going to give you a five page thing that all you have to do is literally paste this into grok bot.
You will have your chief of staff.
You will have different components of it.
He will set up all the agents and then you can just start conversing.
And all you got to do is copy, paste, copy, paste, copy, paste, let it go through its thing.
And by having the ability of having a YouTube that gets enough people, having subscribers and getting through it, your, your points valid.
It's like, I'm trying to empower people.
To make sure they use AI and to feel like they're growing, but the ability of not only giving them answers, giving them homework to do on their own.
And then realizing that the amount of people have reached out saying, I never thought I could do any of this type of stuff.
You know how I'm parenting.
Cause I remember when you came to my office and you asked me a question about how I was using it and you're like, Oh my God, we, I got to do that too.
And we were kind of exchanging information on how we were using it.
So having a community community of, of empowered users is just great.
Yeah.
And, but so many people have.
This fear barrier, it's like, and GROK bot is really good because you can just in very natural language say, Hey, read my X feed and tell me what I've missed on AI every day and give me a summary.
And it just does it.
You don't, it just says, Oh, do you want me to connect to this?
And you go, yes, yes, yes.
Done.
You don't have to do anything.
No, it's, um, it, it, as far as I'm concerned, um, other than see chat GPT, all you had to do was.
Kind of do what you did in Google search and it didn't take much learning.
This, this situation where you recognize the power of having people working for you and being able to say, Hey, put together the newspaper for me of what I care about and have it ready for me at five in the morning, which I have it do for me in crypto.
And then I give it the websites that I want it to go search on and just give me the most important things, match them up with X and make sure these are trending stories as well.
Like, I don't think people realize that like customizing the news that you want, have it delivered to you from overnight.
It's just a very powerful thing to be able to do using something like that.
And that's one of the most simple things to do now.
Exactly.
It's really not, it's really not that complicated, but how do you deal with.
We briefly touched on this in the beginning.
How do you deal with all of having all of the agents and all of the scheduled tasks and all of the things?
Cause I find if I'm not careful, it's like two hours of my morning.
It's fixing shit that didn't happen.
The Google drive connector went down, this happened.
And then I've spent the last two days working with my COO to go and automatically fix all this stuff.
And then that doesn't, it's like, it's not, it's not simple all the time.
Well, open claw was what you described to me was what I went through with open claw.
Eventually Hermes, exact same thing.
So whenever anyone says this is perfect, it was never perfect ever.
Um, you had to deal with errors that would pop up and you did.
You did have to deal with your computer, you know, a true story.
Uh, cleaning lady comes over, my, my, my, uh, laptop.
And all of a sudden I'm like, wait, where's my agent.
And I'm like asking him, there's nothing going on.
And I can't get anything now.
I don't have to deal with that with grok bot.
And so it still makes errors, but I've only been using it for less than whatever, three weeks.
And it's not perfect, but I will tell you the.
The ability of going in and signing into my actual log on, on Twitter, and it being able to go through my lists of stuff is very powerful to do that with anything that I want software wise and have it on a virtual computer that it's going in.
It does a lot of things where I think the more important thing is the getting used to it, knowing how to use it, what it can be good for.
And that way, when it actually gets better, which, you know, it will in a year from now, it'll be completely different than it is today.
You have to develop the brain set of knowing how you'd.
Yeah, but now I've got the problem is I've got agents on grok bot agents on Hermes agents on Claude, you know, and now I need a COO across all of my agents.
I've migrated some of my stuff over already, but I don't think I went as far into it as, as you did.
I will tell you one of the best things that I use them for is something that I, it's very similar to my days at Morgan's.
And at the hedge fund, which was using them as a team of people calling a meeting.
We all get together.
I tell the chief of staff, let's get together.
I have this problem that I want to solve.
for. And I had a situation last week where the way that I did my videos, the company that the
software I used basically said they were going out of business on a Wednesday. Now I do my video
recording on a Friday. So I had to put this together in a completely different way. So I
called a staff meeting and I went into Grokpod and I literally went through it and I said, all right,
how are we going to solve this problem? What's the best way to get through it? And I'm telling
you, Raul, it was literally like being a Morgan Stanley, being a managing director, having everyone
come into the room. We got a problem to solve. Let's solve it. And we got to the point and
literally it was, okay, you should use Google Slides to do it, which is what I did, ended up
doing over the weekend. And in the end, when I asked them, okay, is this going to save me time?
And they said, it will definitely save you time. Now, along the way to learn Google Slides. So it's
one thing for them to say, you should use Google Slides. Well, if it's not something I use all the
time, I needed them to help me. And I said, okay, I'm going to do it. And I said, okay, I'm going to
along the way of, okay, will you make sure you're on top of this? Who's the expert on Google Slides?
And so that agent I worked with one by one by one until I was able to do it. And it took me,
I want to say a few hours to honestly not be an expert at Google Slides, but now I can do a hundred
video slide video. And I was able to do that switch over from a Wednesday to a Thursday morning. And
you know how stressful that type of stuff can be when you're wanting to get something done that you
don't think you've always done.
It's just, it's, it's amazing. I've had many people now ask me, I wrote about it in GMI. So I'm like,
this is what I'm using AI for. And this is what I've built. And I'm, I'm in the middle of building
and people like, holy shit. I'm like, yeah, it's a lot. It's a lot.
Now I got a question for you. How many people do you meet? Because we're right around the same age,
our age. So straddling the 60 area that, you know, we're in the middle of a pandemic and we're
not technology people. Like I always had people working for me. You had people working for me. You
didn't need to be an expert. How many people do you meet our age, non-technology people that you
see using it as actively and in the ways that we are? Zero. They have to be running a business.
Even then. Yeah, you're right. Think of your friends. Yeah. You've kind of the people you
grew up with, not friends that you know, from X and this world, but
even when you go to your trading friends and people who work at hedge funds,
they might have an analyst who's using AI to do stuff. Nobody's doing what we're doing,
but then everybody, the other group around me, everybody's doing this, but in the world,
in the traditional world, they're not. It's like, it's really weird.
I it's, it's impossible for me to describe. And, and so my business,
so we've been talking like every three months. So I launched my subscriber side in February of
this year and the amount of things I'd put up every week. Is that all? It feels like it's much
longer. No. Well, the YouTube started two years ago. That's right. I didn't actually start a
subscriber wall until February and what has happened in this is the most unbelievable thing.
It forget, forget the growth in the community. That's great. And I appreciate everyone doing.
I'm more how much work I do a week.
That gets uploaded to there for them. It's anywhere from seven to 12 things a week that I
build. I upload in there. These are from code that I write or have built for me. They're ideas that I
come up with. I'm starting a crypto portion that will be part of the site as of the end of this
month. And that's why I'm spending so much time on tokenization and I'm built. I built out. Um,
we've conversed we've you know shared information on this but my whole belief has been that if you
take an equal weight of the ecosystem of the best tokens covering a diversified in my case 10 sectors
with inside crypto and you put in any public stocks like circle i even have robin hood i have
paypal into this into the different verticals of the merging the correlation between that equal
basket with bitcoin is close to one there's not much difference when you go through it and the
reason i wanted to do that is i've said to people you have to understand from my perspective
the s&p 500 is this amorphous thing it doesn't mean anything it has innovation that gets rid
of the losers and keeps the winners and it changes and if you believe in hyper competition
and hyper speed that means growth companies will be leaving it faster than they've ever left it
before because you will be disrupted you will be moved out and we've obviously seen that for years
over um the software names and you've seen it even with anthropic and people get worried that
their ar is stalled and i do believe that we're in this hyper competitive world so my end game has
always been the same which is what bitcoin ends up representing is the only true scarcity thing
of a store of value so if your make if your job investing is to pick things that are growing and
then they stop growing your job is to get rid of that and find the next grower well while you're
looking for the next grower you need to put your money into a store of value so bitcoin theoretically
should equal all of that and it does
and that's what makes me feel good and that's what again brings me back to the point of
when you're using ai and you're on top of how fast the world is changing and that bitcoin is directly
related to the disruption from ai it's related to the fact that in a world of abundance you need to
find things that are truly scarce that people believe in and there's not many things that are
truly scarce that people believe in there's plenty of things that are scarce right now
but i don't believe they'll be scarce in the future and that's where it always ends up as
bitcoin ends up being here and along the way we pick and choose in the future and that's where
we're going to see a lot of these innovations that we think are going to do well i think ethereum will
outperform bitcoin over the next year because of the tokenization boom and the stablecoin boom and
what we said about the volume the velocity and people understanding theoretically ethereum is a
commodity related to the blockchain and if there's only a certain amount of places we're going to run
into compute and so i've kind of said to people it's not a direct relationship but i view ethereum
because of the trust factor of this merge and i'd like to hear your because i know you've been into
other into solana in suey and other places that have gone through
you've been into other places that have gone through and i think that's where we're going to
my belief has been that for the banks and all these people ethereum because of its size because
of the time it's been there and because of how difficult it is for people to trust something new
that the trust factor is going to be a very important part of the financial guardrails and
so i've started to accept the fact that i want to be in on top of the innovation related to
tokenization i want to be on top of what's going to happen but that's where i've kind of gotten to
with this whole subscriber thing on this i think we spend far too much time every
everybody in choosing stuff to buy and sell agree really you could own bitcoin the nasdaq
i'd probably do nothing else and you'd be fine right if you want to own a bit of gold but you
got you know it doesn't really matter because it's you know bitcoin does roughly the same
kind of thing but you know that's all you need to actually do and you never need to turn on your
screen again and in crypto i've got to do it again and i've got to do it again and i've got to do it
then very simply is obviously bitcoin um i also like the zcash privacy narrative so you have a
little bit of that and a big bit of that okay fine but then you've got the whole smart contract
there and that doesn't represent it at all they're correlated but they're not the same thing
and simply i just used cloud and other big networks and said well there's generally
four or five that are dominant and one is more dominant than the other
others and so you just look at that and say okay well what are they well the two clear ones right
now are ethereum and solana and then you've got others and let's see hyperliquid's different
because it's it's sort of more of a business built on blockchain um and a lot of the others
are businesses built on the technology you know what did cloud enable what did all of these things
enable um and that's a harder bet right now because we're still early in the infrastructure
bet so that's all i just think is like you just buy a basket
of you know three to five smart contract chains you can even market cap weight them for now it's
fine and a bit of bitcoin and a bit of zcash and you just don't have to do anything or the other
level of the portfolio is you just buy some nasdaq buy some bitcoin buy some eth buy some gold and
i just don't do anything else for a long time it's just and we yet we write so much and people
want dashboards and business cycles and technical analysis and all of this stuff and
actually you don't really need to you weren't going to say stuff i know what you're going to say
um so wait let's go let's go back then because another comment by your face you're like yeah
it's true um we uh we both love studying the human brain we both love understanding um psychology
consciousness so let's go back to what you said at the beginning why do you think people do this
because i agree with you that it's completely unnecessary so why do you think people do it i
have my own thoughts it's a sense of control of agency it's like you have some control over your
financial future if you have a set it and forget it portfolio it's like you have no control it just
does it and yes it probably works um but people feel like they feel a desperate need to get ahead
and we've talked about this before you know speculation prediction markets sports betting
it's all part of the same trend which is people don't have
enough money the basement of currency's kind of screwed people over
and they want to take control so but people turn themselves into
are nuts over this stuff i mean i see it on the real vision platform you know they're desperately
searching for a guru or a system or a product or a something and it's like it doesn't exist guys
it's like the markets are an amalgamation of all of us and that's what's in the price bizarrely
i so i think um it doesn't mean so you can't outperform or under you know all of that stuff
you know the gmi track record is you know one of the best there's been but because that's time
horizon really but yeah i don't know there's just some horrible truth to all of this so the reason
people are willing to put a hundred percent of their money it also doesn't sell newsletters
correct that is true well see now we're getting a difference that i'm more so i've thought about
why people complain and i live in williamsburg i see the building chat everyone complains
everyone in this this place voted for mom donnie like it's it's a it's a unique place so they vote
for mom donnie they complain about how expensive things are but then i see them all traveling to
the hamptons and i see them all going on flights and i see them all spending money so there's some
disconnect because they say they're poor but they live in a building that costs a lot of money and
they're traveling over the place so i've kind of come to the belief that people are all looking
for the next big thing and it's this hope that they found something that no one else
found and they're going to make money and go through it because nobody the s&p 500 you're
investing in 500 companies so if you put all of your money in the s&p 500 you've invested in 500
companies but if someone said i have all my money in the s&p 500 like we should put more in the
nasdaq you should put it here by the time you're done it's like well you've diversified into such
a level but if you say i've invested all my money in bitcoin people think you're crazy
and the reason is because it can it will be gone and i view it as being all things but it's
you don't need the next big thing like it's compounded to your point nasdaq same thing
why are you searching to compound at a higher level than two things that if you did them 50 50
have compounded at such a high level if you make it a third a third a third with the s&p 500 guys
since the bitcoin white paper you don't need to do anything else you're outperforming everything
that needs to happen i just think people are never happy and i think we're in this world where
it's kind of playing out where the you're fighting you're you're going upstream because you're
comparing yourself to people that have made so much money and it's in this world of assets going
to the level they are 180 trillion dollars in the u.s of net worth i think it's this mystical thing
that people believe they're gonna they're gonna get into that 180 trillion by just buying something
at a penny that'll go up to a thousand it's just not gonna happen and i think they should just
compound in in the things that work like you yeah and focused on increasing your income exactly
that's the thing that actually makes the difference because you have more ability to invest
you can dollar cost average you can compound over time people forget that but if you if you figure a
way to just take the compounding and you take the nasdaq s&p and bitcoin since the white paper came
out and you do a third a third a third and you just go through and you're like okay here's the
compounding number and let's assume by going through that it's 33 and you're like okay if i
compound at 33 and you go okay now go do your income compounded at 33 and see where you'll be in
in in 20 years just by taking 20 of that income 15 of that income letting it grow and always taking
15 you'll be shocked at how much money you have in 20 years so so here's a question of our
theoretical idiot proof portfolio do you rebalance because if not you've got 97 98 percent bitcoin
and i don't believe in rebalancing but you've got no diversification now at all so the nasdaq can
outperform for five years and not move the dial at all we're still all bitcoin returns i don't know
how to think about that i so when people have asked me and and i guess now that i'm i've been
a part of the community long enough i've never sold a bitcoin i've never sold anything in it
and it's just amazing you haven't either i i mean i've switched but i've never taken money
out of digital assets yeah ever i've never i've never had a transaction
that brings money back into the bank it's always a bigger number and part of it is appreciation but
part of it is as i get more money and i don't i don't need to buy anything else in my life so i
have what i want everything is to me about a trip that i want to take or this and that so i'm one of
the lucky people that's made enough money in life where i don't need to go out and spend money i'm
not buying more i i own a home in maine that's it like that's it i don't need anything i have a
i'm just not a spender i never have been i just don't care i have no interest in rebalancing
because i don't need to and i'm not thinking about it in that way and i do view it as if that
money continues to grow that's a better life for my kids or a better life for me giving away or
whatever the case is down the road but it's something i believe in and i've i wrote a
substack which i still believe i was trained at the racetrack by my father i started going on the
before i can way before i can remember but from the time that i can remember which must be you
know four to five years old he was teaching me how to handicap a horse race and i wrote this
substack about the greatest odds i've ever seen on something and the building of the digital asset
rails the belief that ai will disrupt the fiat system and that more and more people will migrate
that money over to here which you believe in and i believe in and it's funny i heard you say because i
get asked the question all the time so what's your price on bitcoin and i go okay i'm not going to do
this anymore but here's what i will do i think the size of the digital asset world will be at least
100 trillion dollars and i do that not as like a random starting point but if it's 700 trillion on
one side of the equation and i believe that that money is going to grow over there and it'll be a
combination of that side either not growing or going down to some degree and this side growing
it it has to get to that level there's no other way that that that can happen there's it's the
digital economy and it has to grow that way so when you get back to it and i go well then what
do you think i'm like well then it gets back to how much you think bitcoin will be as a percentage
of that number and if i say it'll never go below 33 which is what i believe then i can come up with
a number that i can make an argument towards that's the way i think about this whole thing
and kind of the migrate and it's always funny that you and i trained in a similar way thinking of
what's going to be different in terms of the way we kind of i'd say get to the end game we end up
with similar numbers but the thing i think we both appreciate the most is you know the most exciting
time of our entire career is now and we've gone through all sorts we've seen some really amazing
stuff and now it's like this is i mean the most concentrated you've ever had to be diversification
kind of means nothing in this
and it's the most exciting time to be alive and to be part of this is amazing and to help people
in their journey as well of this is really special can can you imagine um if you would
have said five years ago the s&p will be growing uh 33 job hiring will be zero profit margins will
be going parabolic not just in the u.s but globally we'd be having a cancer vaccine come out we'd
be you can go through talk about that and people would be worried about whether 10-year yields are
five and three quarters or 5.8 or 5.9 like i just i think the social media world i think the it's too
good it can't possibly be this good i didn't think i would feel this good i'm going to be 60 years
old in march i didn't think i'd feel this good at this age i didn't think i'd be able to work out
every single day and think about anti-aging and going through this so i just i'm i agree with you
the most enjoyable time and i'm learning more than i've ever learned in my life so i feel younger and
in almost every way i can possibly be younger fantastic jordy as ever my friend fantastic
conversation and i always look forward to our next one same hero we'll get get get out of napa
and don't forget to pre-order my book of course what's the name of the everything code because
it's actually written with ai it's the first major book that a major publisher says pan mcmillan um
and house they trained their ai on all of my content and i gave them content and then they
built the narrative of the book and i helped craft it with the editor yeah but it was it
collapsed the the time to write a proper book from you know however long to you know a much
shorter period of time it's been an amazing thing so anyway so you're not worried you're not worried
about the wall street journal and and and the drug uh ai op-ed uh fiasco you're not worried about that
you're disclosing it so well the whole thing is disclosed as this is the first book ever done this
way and it's written by me it's all my content and you know crafted but yeah it's it's let's see how
it goes down be interesting but it's the first one i'm looking forward to it i obviously have
seen the everything code uh i i've probably listened to more podcasts with you talking about
it and i i believe that hearing this hearing a person talk about the same thing multiple times
i always absorb more because there's something either i missed or something that went through so
i will certainly get the
all right my friend well good to see you as ever and i'll see you soon
See you soon.
Well, another great conversation with Geordie.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The bond yield panic is overblown because profit margins, PMIs, and bank stocks are strong while hiring stays weak, signaling productivity rather than crisis.
AI-driven productivity is creating a mismatch
Tokenization of all assets, including funds, return streams, and AI agents, will violently increase capital velocity and disrupt the entire asset management industry.
AI agents create infinite demand on users' time and money, with Raoul spending $11,000 monthly on top of his subscription, so AI does not free up time.
Humanoids and AI will mainly impact dangerous jobs like mining first, potentially lowering commodity input costs and moving the world toward abundance.
Energy and compute bottlenecks, plus political friction around data centers, are actually positive because they slow an overly fast transition and prevent overbuilding.
Bitcoin remains the only true scarce store of value, while Ethereum and Solana should benefit from tokenization and stablecoin growth.
Most investors overcomplicate portfolios; a simple mix of Bitcoin, Nasdaq, and gold, plus focus on growing income, is sufficient for long-term compounding.
Summary:
In this conversation, Raoul Pal and Jordy Visser discuss macro, crypto, AI, and tokenization. Jordy argues the widespread fear about a bond market collapse is overblown, pointing to strong profit margins, rising PMIs, weak hiring, and healthy global bank stocks as evidence of productivity rather than crisis. He believes yields will stay anchored and the curve will steepen, with the inflation component gradually replaced by productivity.
Both agree AI is creating a mismatch between exponential growth in earnings and the slower, human-speed legacy debt world, which traditional GDP cannot capture. E. Shaw best positioned to adapt first.
Jordy notes AI agents create infinite demand on time and money, with Raoul spending $11,000 monthly on top of his subscription, so AI does not free up time. They also discuss humanoids, energy and compute bottlenecks, and why Bitcoin remains the ultimate scarce store of value, with Ethereum likely to outperform during the tokenization boom.
FAQs
The constraint is infinite demand: the more you use AI, the more it fills up your time and resources. People expecting free time from AI will find the opposite, as their time becomes completely saturated.
The panic ignores strong fundamentals: global PMIs are rising, profits are soaring, and profit margins are expanding despite low hiring. Selling 30-year bonds at peak yields would have missed significant gains.
AI allows earnings and revenues to grow rapidly without hiring, creating a mismatch because GDP cannot capture this yet. This leads to record earnings with low employment, as seen in companies like Amazon.
Tokenization enables 24/7 trading, democratizes access, and increases capital velocity by putting all assets on-chain. It disrupts traditional asset management by reducing fees and allowing global investment.
Bitcoin represents true scarcity that people believe in, unlike other assets that may become abundant through AI. In a world of abundance, it serves as a reliable store of value amid disruption.
A simple portfolio could be equal parts Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Bitcoin, which has historically outperformed. Avoid constant trading and focus on compounding and increasing income.
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