The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

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Anyway, NBA two K lets you experience every transaction and storyline right from your home. Pick up your copy of NBA two K 27 right now. Let's go, let's go baby year 20 for us. Cause wow. Uh, we have been doing podcasts together about the NFL since the 2007 season. I did the math. That's 20 years this year. Hold on. I don't know if we did over unders and no seven, but this is our 20th season together. We brought some special guests. Farrah Fawcett is here. One of the people we had our first crushes on. She likes me. She's all Don Johnson's going to have a couple of cigarettes and then Joe house and the Craig. Wow. Amazing. He looks so much more alive than Don, Don and Farrah. What? How did you get that post? I wore my goat hat because I'm a Joe house poster to be here with the goats. Is Don Johnson going to be upset when we take the dolphins under two and a half ones? I think he's going to be upset. Uh, Joe house is going to chime in after every division and then also be a tiebreaker for us every once in a while. All right. We're not, we don't want to mess with the formula. I'm at too much, but it's fine. That house is here. We're doing a big ringer fantasy football draft tomorrow. Fantasy has already quit the draft five times, but we're doing that live on Netflix tomorrow. And this is a two part podcast. This is the NFC wind total over unders. And then, uh, that's going to be live on Netflix and then AFC will be running on Sunday. We're doing it all once today. And, uh, this is one of my favorite days of the year. We have some redemption stuff, Sal. I don't, neither of us did that well last year. No, I know. A lot of red, a lot of red markings there. What happened? Cause. Cause the higher end stuff, I feel like I did well. And it was like the middle class. Well, that's why this is the best day of the year because I'm, we're going to go 32 and Oh, after today. And then the week one, when Cincinnati like actually loses the whole first month, I'm like, Oh, what the hell happened? But well, so big picture, everyone has too much information now. Yeah. This is the hardest I've run. You guys have been doing that and ringer gambling show division by division. You've done a great job of not tipping your hand. Thank you. You and I, the whole summer. So really the first year we've really. Really tried to not tell each other what we're thinking. It's like a bride and groom. Aren't supposed to see each other the day of the wedding, but ours is for like 60 days. Yeah. House knows some of my stuff. We went over some stuff today as we, uh, as we digested Bianco's pizza from last night. Um, we had a lot of pizza. You don't, you haven't been, you've been healthier. Cutting, cutting down on, uh, I presented my plate to you. I'm like, look, look what I've turned into. I've turned into Bill Simmons. So like half the crust was, uh, was left, but yeah. Meanwhile, I was eating pizza. I'm waiting. I'm wearing a seatbelt now. I don't know what's happened to me. I don't know if I believe that or not. I think that's just to get everyone off your case. No, I've been wearing it. You have? Yeah. I've met their witnesses. How's that going? It's confining. That is true. That is the one thing they say about that. It's confining. It's claustrophobic. Do you wear one on a plane? I, I, only if they yell at me. Okay. So you need to be solid. I just feel like on a plane, it's nothing good's happening either way. I agree. It's not like, oh, that guy who wore a seatbelt got saved during the crash. Right. What about in a submarine? Oh, forget it. Let's not talk about crashes before we're about to do NFC over-unders. So every year, the cuz and I, we pick the over-under totals, which we're getting from FanDuel, FanDuel Sportsbook. They're getting better and better at the juice, at the totals. We're not going to deal, we'll mention if the juice is, but we can't do anything about the juice. No. There's some minus 135s. There's some minus 130s. We're going to talk about some alt lines. They've given us too many options. Years ago, in 2007, imagine if we had alt lines, like, oh my God, we lose our minds. But now it's like, oh. Oh, this is the cheesecake factory menu. What are we going to do? Well, you get to the point, you look at it, you form the opinions on the over-unders. And I would say about third week of August, the alt lines start becoming really appealing. And I thought, even on the Ringer Gammock Show, we're going to do the NFCs first. I think it was the Bundo who was saying how this has a chance to be the one seed in this division because of the two weaker teams. And talking one seat, that stuff we couldn't have bet. I don't feel like 10 years. One seed for your best record, all that stuff. One seed, best record in the league, all that stuff. We've come a long way. I'm already losing my voice. We're only three minutes in. I'm so excited. We said to the kids, like, the kids are like, oh, summer's over. My wife's like, yeah, they have to go to school. I'm like, get the fuck, get everybody go to school. Get out of here. I have three team teasers to lose. We have to talk football. Let's get to September. Enough of this. And now we're here. One other wrinkle. Yeah. Both of our teams have a chance to be good. You're over under nine and a half. Mine's 10. Nine and a half. Both of them have been thrown into arguments about who could win a conference. Your team, dare I say, is becoming kind of the hot popular pick. Players no one knew about emerging. Everyone's talking about them. Picks the defense. So we're going to talk about them in a second. We're going to start with the NFC East. Okay. House is division as well. Yes. Yeah. House is just sad about the Redskins now, Commanders. But we'll talk about that. We're going to start with the Philadelphia Eagles. Over under 10 and a half. There's juice on the under. Division plus 130. Feels like that's stayed the same, but the Cowboys division odds have dropped. 19-1 for Super Bowl. Minus 162 for the playoffs. Under eight and a half wins. If you wanted to go for the everything goes wrong season plus 210. Best record 11-1. They were 11-6 last year. We have a little game we're going to play this year. Um, we had, I had readers suggest that we should do like a what if thing. Um, like basically a what if for every team. So it'd be either a best case scenario or what if. You haven't written an article in 14 years. I meant listeners. Yeah. Just conditionally I want to say readers. Uh, listeners. Um, but I want to do a what if for each team. Okay. My what if for this team. What if they don't miss A.J. Brown at all? Hmm. That'd be the big reason not to take them. Right? Definitely. Yeah. I'm looking at, you know, when your offense is comically inefficient, what do you do? You fire the O.C. Yeah. And you get rid of your stud receiver. Then that should fix everything. But yeah, you're right. How what he was reading books on the sideline. They didn't use them anyway. Didn't seem great for team chemistry. I found the email. It was from, uh, Joe from Charlotte. Oh no. Not Joe for Charlotte. Uh, Sean and Patrick. He said my 11 year old son, Patrick and I are big fans. We fake this segment at home. Like we're a ringer podcast. So we play. What if pick a player is good or bad? Um, I'm going to extend that out to, to this. Like, what if they don't miss A.J. Brown? I think is a good one. I listen. I did my talent thing with the, with the Eagles. I think they have one of the five most stacked rosters in the league. I don't even think it's arguable. I had six guys in their defense that got points at five guys on their offense. Get points. They have a top three offensive line. They've been there. They win 10, 11 games every year. And the over under is 10 and a half. And I just don't understand it. It seems like people are anxiously trying to push this team out of the double digit win range. And kind of ignoring how loaded the roster is. I don't do you, you hate the Eagles, but do you understand? Well, I understand. I don't know why. What are you giving your offensive points based on? Because it's much different from year to year now, right? You have to take one bark. We had 2000 yards rushing, went down to 1100. So what are you going to put them right in the middle at 15? That would be a good year. Yeah. I have him like, I don't know. He's somewhere between the. Fifth and ninth best running back. That's not nothing. We should probably lead with the tush push, which you won't hear me complain about as much this year because they went from like 81% conversion to 64%. Hertz runs a lot less, which I'm going to talk about this a lot. When quarterbacks turn like 28 years old, that seems like the sweet spot. They're running less. He's already running less. He averages like six, six and a half. House is also running less. You're running less. A little bit. Yeah. The runs more, but he's running less. So I don't know what, where you put this off. and Makai Lemon will have to step up replacing. Wicks. They're like a receiver short it feels like. Yeah, exactly. I actually thought they should have traded for Booty. I thought he was. I really liked him last year. I get the Pats were kind of too loaded at receiver, but I thought the Texans kind of stole him. He made big plays for us last year. Yeah, they feel like a receiver short. Big Goddard year. I love good offensive lines. There's so few of them now. Like Tampa has one. They have one. Buffalo has one. And I just wonder if that's like almost a cheat code now, but they're D. Carter, Davis, Bond, Greenard, Dejean, Mitchell. It goes on and on. It's nice. And the GM he does, you know, he picks up two guys a year that you're like, oh my God. Yeah, of course that worked out. But I feel like that offense, I don't know what their identity is anymore. It used to be grind. But can it be worse? They flip the coordinator again. Like my argument would be you're kind of buying high on something that everybody's kind of given up on being. But I always felt like they went too slow. Right. Like they were almost trying to protect hurts. And I just don't think they're going to do that anymore. Yeah. They play the AFC South and the NFC West in a first place schedule. They don't play a lot of good quarterbacks. They play Dak twice. Daniels twice. Stafford, Caleb, Darnold and Purdy. Sal, I have them over. It's a slight over. It's an 11. 6 for me. Wow. But I couldn't get to seven wins when I went through it. I just think they have too much talent. I think it's this is stupid. Yeah. I mean, look, they have what one of two teams to make the playoffs in each of the last five years. So that helps. I hate that they have back to back. They broke that streak of like 22 years for the NFC East trying not to get them a third division title. I have them at nine wins. They were eight and four in one score games. Yeah, I think they're nine and eight. And I'm going to take the under. They adjusted under. I think you get plus 125 for under nine and a half if you want to do that. Oh, my God. Yeah, I'm going to shove those winnings right off Big Dumb's ass there. It is a little bit. By the way, I still do this. Still do this nonsense that I was told by many people out that there are websites that I'll do this for you. But I put the wins and laws. I'm like, oh, OK, I gave the Phillies a win over Arizona. I got to give Arizona a loss. I got to go to that sheet. So I'm a maniac with this. But meticulously, I said nine and eight. Yeah, it's more likely to happen if you're holding the paper. That's what you need. The paper. Right. Exactly. A big thing for me, and not to spoil the rest of the discussion about the division, but I think the other teams in this division, other than Dallas, are going to be bad. And I'm just operating like Dallas and Philly can both go for no in their divisions. Now, Philly always has the weird Washington game every year. Right. Where it is it every year or every other year? It's pretty much every year. There's something weird near like Philly's a big favorite. You have them in a three-teamer or two-teamer or some sort of parlay, and all of a sudden they're down 10-7 in the fourth quarter. You don't know what happened. But here's one other thing, Sal, before we finish. Yeah. Well, first of all, new OC, better chemistry, added Jalen Phillips and Woolen. I don't know how they keep adding free agents every year, but I feel like this is like a last harass season for them because they have these offensive linemen that are talking about retiring, right? This is almost definitely Lane Johnson's last year. They have the Hurts contract. They've paid some guys. They have some younger guys that they hit some draft picks, but they're going to have to pay those guys, too. They have the Barkley money. I don't think this is sustainable past this year, and I feel like during this season, if they need something, they're going to go get it. Kitchen sink game for, I think, a few teams in the NFC. It's weird to say kitchen sink for teams that have had success, but this team, the Rams in a way, are all in. The Lions, I think, are all in. This is the window kind of closes after this, except for the fact that, you're right, they play in the NFC East, of which I gave one over, and it's going to surprise you which over I gave, but it's not this team. I'm going to be a dick. Is that what you're supposed to do from the Craig chair? You said Jalen Phillips. He is now on Carolina. They added Greenard. Oh, I meant Greenard, yeah. I know you meant. I like this, though, the correction. Okay, good, good, good. My bad. Don't do it for me. I meant Jalen Phillips. Don't do it for me. I don't appreciate it. No, I meant Greenard. I know. I said Jalen Phillips. You did. Phillips left. That was really good, House. Thank you. I needed to be corrected. I'm old. It's okay. So am I. Plus, House is awake in the mornings. That's one thing with House. Way better in the mornings. East Coast time? It's midday on the East Coast. He's really awake. Okay. I'm over. You're under. They play on Thanksgiving. Could swing both of these. Dallas is nine and a half. Pretty straight action. Did it start at eight and a half? Yeah. And it bumped up. Last year was the opposite. You were up one and it dropped a win and it seemed like a red flag. Plus one seventy five for the division. Minus one twenty for the playoffs, which I think is one of the single best bets. I just feel like they're one of the seven best. Yeah, I think they're one of the seven best NFC teams. Twelve plus wins plus two seventy. I would personally recommend the number one seed at thirteen to one if you're going to do the twelve plus. I really like them. Best record sixteen to one. Last year they were seven, nine, and one. I hate this. Well, let me ask you this first. I hate how excited everyone is, including me. What would you consider to be right now a successful Cowboys season? This is a what if? You're in mid-January. We're not even at the what ifs yet. Let's say it's February 15th. The season's over. Okay. What's a successful Cowboys season for you? Now, obviously, you can't say the Super Bowl, but what's like a realistic successful season? Jerry Jones. Not a stroke, but now what's underneath? What does he have? Those many? Like needs a defibrillator with palpitations. I think are we going to give our division picks at the end of each thing? Okay. I think nine and eight and they don't embarrass themselves defensively. There's a good that's a success. Yeah, I think so. So you haven't even moved mentally to we have to make the playoffs. I think I think that could be enough to make the playoffs in this division. I do say I am really usually, you know how it is. You if I fall out of favor with this team, you'll talk me back in like, all right, let's see. Let's say they beat Carolina. They beat New Orleans and like we have to go through all this guy's schedule. I'm usually in and out of this team four times. I'm never usually in on them in August. I like everything they did in the offseason. I did too. Like I hate saying it. I literally liked every move. George Pickens was going to be a headache. They locked him up. Franchise tagged him with a smile, right? Javante Williams, a miracle thousand yard rusher last year for them. Good job. They got him defensively. I love it. Alkai Lawrence, Caleb Downs is looking like the best. The edge rusher from Michigan, the third rounder. Everyone loves him. Caleb Downs was the most predictable. Everybody going nuts about him in August. You knew it in the draft. It's like this guy's going to fall four spots too low and everybody's going to love him and he's going to be awesome immediately. They extend Quinton Williams. Jones is not going to lose this Parsons trade. If it's the last thing he does, even more than making the playoffs, he has to be able to say, I won this Micah Parsons trade. So extend Quinton Williams. They sign Rashawn Gary. They're doing good preseason at Von Miller as like deep, deep, deep backup. Great. Just in case when houses team did it, I laughed last year, but then he had like nine and a half sacks, which would have led the team. Bring him in a couple of third downs in a big game. He's like a consultant to pass a rush consultant as well. Preseason he kicked the crap out of the defending champ Seahawks. They literally kicked the crap out of the Saints in a joint practice and another joint practice with the Rams. They say at the end of it, they're like, Hey, we're running wind sprints. You want to join us? And they're like, kids, go ahead. Go ahead. You do your thing. And you like the coach too. He was good last year. I do. He's not bad. Wasn't like the easiest year last year, but it seems like the team likes them. And Eber flew, sell them back a little and defensively they were garbage. Absolute garbage has to get better. And I feel like their defense has not been the same since I watched them with house and you against the Packers in the playoffs in the living room. They lost their home field edge and they lost any kind of defensive semblance, but their new defensive coordinator, he's like, he's 29 years old. I had them at Parker. My player rankings had them at 20 points, which isn't bad. 20 and up is usually around 30 playoffs. Sorry. Yeah. I had the Eagles at 32, by the way. Yeah. Quiet, drama-free Cowboys season for the most part of the off season. Yeah. Like, no, you don't have some weird contract holdout or Jerry being weird. Nothing like that. My what if for this team was what if this is the team people seem to think the Bengals are going to be because I do think they're the NFC Bengals, but I think because everyone, it was like, oh, the Bengals, their defense is better. Cool. Um, you made your defense better, but you have a better offensive line and just a better offense. I think a more reliable offense in general. Yeah. I don't know. I just like, I like the spot. I never really worry about the offense. I guess it is a good comparison, but when Dak plays, I think the number is like 11 plus games. They're top eight offense always. So they don't have problems scoring points. It's keeping them off the board. Um, they're moving to a three, four defense. They can move to a fricking one six. I don't give a crap. Just do something different. Um, you got a good net rest edge. Yeah. Third, you get 12 games in a dome at the road games are rough. Um, and you play some good defenses, play Philly twice, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Rams, Green Bay, the Giants twice. If they're going to be a good defense, who knows? Yeah. Um, I, uh, I'm a hard over. Really? Yeah. I'm a fully erect over word. nine and a half in front of Farah here I think I have them for 11 and 6 I did stare at the 12 plus wins at plus 270 I think some stuff would have to go right from a health standpoint and you'd probably have to catch in that bad schedule like one or two of those teams in a week where one of their guys are hurt or whatever but I think it's either 11 or 12 and this is we're doing locks this year I didn't tell you slap a lockdown on a pick oh really we do this in NBA we never really did this for NFL this is my first lock over nine and a half Dallas lock oh man this is so scary this is just so he could yell at me he's doing it to you when they're one and three he could yell at me he's like this is your fault but well they're not going to be one and three because they open with Washington and New York I'm not spiteful like you I wouldn't give your quarterback a derogatory nickname and then really push it and say it on pods and probably wear a t-shirt for week one and drink maybe no I gotta get that going you're right I just I like being right and winning money and Dallas is going to be good this year and I think there's five teams I like in the NFC and we just did two of them I have nine and eight and I have the Eagles at nine and eight so we won't pick our division yet but nine and eight so that's an under that's an under unfortunately that's an under better than they were last year so it feels like an emotional hedge yeah seven and ten to nine and eight always a tough schedule you know the defense has a lot of work to do you know really a lot you know 511 points allowed 30 plus in eight games let's get that down did that feel like an emotional hedge to you a thousand percent okay this is the Cousin Sal undersell nine and eight his enthusiasm ridiculous full Quinn and Williams season you also have the Parsons not probably coming back to like week eight and even when he comes back won't be a hundred percent so there'll be a lot of like whoa Jerry did win that trade oh yeah yeah yeah okay next one the Washington C words uh-oh they're over seven and a half wins under six and a half all on Fando plus 125 under five and a half plus 220 worst record if you wanted to get really crazy 15 to one that's so mean they were five and twelve last year six to one for the division by the way 71 for the Super Bowl plus 280 for the playoffs um they're over they lost Tunsil for the season and I didn't like their offensive line to begin with and there's been if you're actually reading like the day-to-day reports the big writers are going nuts really rough stuff with the offensive line which normally like not everybody has a good offensive line but their quarterback is 127 pounds so the skinny quarterback who got hurt last year combined with nobody can block right I'm out man I have them over I like them I think we correctly sat here three in a row we've disagreed yeah a year ago we said this is the regression team they had a ton of luck right the Hail Mary right the house against the Bears and all that Daniel's terrific they're gonna get injury luck they spent a ton of money on old players last year this year they spent a ton of money I think top three uh 200 million and it's a more balanced age wise uh they were 11 months older than the next oldest team which is gigantic difference it doesn't matter it doesn't seem like it offensive line that that part sucks for sure but they had seven games with Jaden Daniels I have them at eight and nine I think oh and Sonny Sonny Stiles uh Stiles is a good pick right oh it's a nice pick up defensively Stiles is a good pick but it also might be we could have we should have taken Caleb Downs but like week five yeah they got confused that's looming interesting how about this Wes Welker is their tight end coach that that should give you a tight end coach why is he a receiver coach I don't know why I don't know he convinced them plus nine rest advantage zero opponents coming off a bye I see like eight wins here three division wins plus Indy Tennessee and Arizona they'll win a dumb one over Cincinnati or something so I got them at eight not only do I have them under seven and a half it's a lock for me it's my second lock really you haven't done a lock yet I have two locks already only in the first division two locks out of you I have two locks already god he can't keep in his pants cuz only doing the he's looking at Farrah Fawcett locking down this everything schedule is I mean they start out at Eagles at Cowboys home Seahawks and then they have to go to London and play the Colts that could be 0-4 before we're even in October yet or middle of October yet but I don't see it at all I I was circling the Dan Quinn first coach fired House was adamant this morning over coffee no way they'll keep him for the whole year but I I didn't think he did a good job last year either it could be a top five for us well I mean so many injuries I think the fourth most injured team out there so he's not building the roster like they tried to run it back after 2024 so you can't fire him for two years they tried I mean Sal made the point they got they tried to run back that same oldest team in the NFL that experienced veteran stuff of course they had injury regression the other thing was they were horrific in terms of creating turnovers because all those old guys are a step behind everybody this defense is the big wild card there's seven new stars on the defense so the whole season will come down to whether or not the defense you know is different see House is representing because he's a DC fan doesn't want to see like a party pooper yeah there's been private conversations with House where he hasn't been this optimistic I acknowledge well the problem is Tunsell like what a punch in the cock how about this Tunsell yeah what skill guys do you like on the on the commanders it's like Terry McLaurin is he the 30th best receiver in the league you didn't mind Diggs they have that what is he from Arkansas you got Antonio Williams God bless Diggs Antonio Williams is good God bless Diggs Diggs played 35 plays a game he's a possession receiver they didn't have one of those last year was disappeared in the playoffs I mean in the Super Bowl they're running back those by Bill and the tight end coach is Wes Welker you should be in on this team I'm out it's a great point it's a hard take the tight end from Tennessee who did you have for this huh how'd you have for the over for this for your own team I can't remember what we said on the NFC East show eight is a super hard number to get to because this schedule is just a punch in the dick you can't remember if you have over or under do you want some more coffee it's on the Ringer Wise Guys show I bet I did the over and said eight wins David Blau the new offensive coordinator you remember betting him on yeah we won some money on Blau I don't see it at all the other thing I don't like is near the end of the season they have at Vikings at Jaguars and then the Cowboys and I just think unless the Cowboys are like the one seed that game's gonna actually mean something for the Cowboys so four of their last five are Houston Minnesota Jacksonville and Dallas they have a stretch week eight week nine week ten home Eagles on a Sunday night home Rams the next week and then at Giants on a Thursday night game yeah that's three in a row and that's like that's the one where it's funny because I look at that 10 to 13 stretch Giants Cincy Arizona Tennessee like if they're anywhere near four wins at that point they're an over under under for you over lock for me so I've done two locks no other way you went on you're under I'm under you're over that's what I said that's what you said second mistake of the pot house for 20 Netflix you know Chappelle makes mistakes all the time Netflix is like what's going on where's the true crime stuff one of these guys going to try to kill each other last one the Giants the over under seven and a half pretty even juice on that plus 550 for division they're four and 13 last year they are plus 265 to make the playoffs plus 290 for 10 plus wins I'd probably recommend that under five and a half plus 250 worst record 20 to one first what if for me what if Jackson Dart plays eight games or less yeah well guess what he's going to play eight games or less so what's your what's your pick knowing that Jackson Dart will not make it to 10 games this season yeah I mean he gets hurt every other game how would we analyze Tua like three years ago it's like well he's not going to make it or right and then we were right he didn't make it this will be the same thing yeah and I don't know man maybe you should pass me on this I should pass because I just I just hate this team so much but I'm going to go under I just don't think they have offensive players who play defensive football like Scadabo took out like secondary guys yesterday it's like hey this is an out contact thing and Dart can't stay on the field he's going to the 10 he's complaining that they're sending him to 10 like he's been to the 10 43% of his games like guess what the league is not going to go under because of Jackson Dart you have two concussions already they're going to send you to the 10 neighbors at least plays like an offensive player and he can't stay on the field give me an over under for those three core offensive players playing together I'd start at like three and a half Scadabo and Dart yeah all playing a start to finish game together yeah five and a half oh man I'd go under yeah go under on four and a half yeah I think it's like three three and a half is what I would say like I don't know I don't know you know and everybody there's a lot of pressure on us media we lose our media sports media card if we don't take a fourth place team to win the division I don't think this is it at all as you know I love nothing more than that yeah it's what it's and it's been really reliable over the years and every year there's been pretty. pretty reliable picks for that last year was a little tougher but the patriots were a great example it was like they added vrabel they spent some money they finally had a good draft it was just the easiest schedule possible yeah i could see that coming and the odds kind of reflected it right i just don't think there's necessarily the team this year you're like you're really jamming and forcing it i wanted it to be the giants in like april because they they blew chippers on defense they you know they had two picks in the top 12 and some money to spend but we didn't talk about the biggest reason i don't think it's going to happen i i just i'm not i'm out on john harbaugh harbaugh yeah i and i think it's going to tie into what i do in the afc too like i think he ran his course there i'm not even sure he was good to begin with and i don't think this is like mike vrabel going to the pats or jim harbaugh going to the chargers i don't think he's going to have an impact like that and if anything i think he's going to have an impact like that and i think he's going to have an impact like that i think this season might expose maybe he wasn't as good as we thought because of what's happened with the ravens and then the giants so they were bad in one score games last year right that famously the russell wilson one they blew to the cowboys went to overtime and everything and then john harbaugh is going to fix that no one blows 10 point leads like he does in the fourth quarter right so that's that's what's going to be it's another we talked about this on the fantasy pod too it's a classic ask the team's fans what their opinion is yeah and you know like i watch every red sox game i literally since the nba draft i think i've seen 95 percent of the season and like we have a shortstop monasterio who's like a feel-good story he's terrible defensively and if you watch it day to day so like there was a game a national game like two weeks ago and tom verducci was the announcer and he's the national announcer but he's like a monasterio has been really good defensively on my red sox story like oh my god that's the worst opinion of the year right but you know the fans know he's not watching and if you talk to any ravens fan they were completely out on harbaugh they just thought he was bad yeah the canary in the coal mine there is how bad he's been on fourth down decisions and has been going on for a while he's in the bottom quarter of the league and and he's been overly unnecessarily conservative and now he's paired with matt nagy right we didn't talk about that naggy but you know if you go he's probably getting fired that year when he threw lamar and lamar saved his job and gave him the second run but i i've always felt like he was a little overrated i thought his last couple years i don't i just don't feel like he got enough shit for everything and it really seemed like some of the players were out on him too so yeah this is this is a you know what big under for me lock me in for this yeah i don't want to fall too far behind with the locks the other thing is no one gave up more big plays in the giants 124 big plays and dexter lawrence's productivity tailed off a little he had like five sacks i think last year it's because he was double teamed more than anybody else they're giving up big plays and the guy who was double teamed all year is gone now so that's it so that's what's going to happen toughest road slate in the league rams commanders texans eagles colts seahawks lions cowboys another reason that the schedule is brutal rough five and twelve and then they end the season at cowboys home eagles and i think both of those teams are going to have something to play for too yeah and then the other question we haven't talked about this yet but and it's not it didn't apply to washington but as these teams get into december if they're out of it how do they start handling that we don't really have tanking in the nfl but i feel like we're gonna have a form of it this year well we saw with jackson dart right when they were out of it like well we're gonna keep them out of these meaningless games so yeah that's the closest you'll get to that or maybe you decide jackson dart's not sustainable as a starting qb we got to uh right maybe think of another one okay so for the division you have i have two nine win teams in the cowboys and eagles and cowboys have better plus number to win the division so that's my team at nine and eight to take it i have both the cowboys and eagles going 11 and six so i'm gonna have to recommend the division for the cowboys i'm leaning that way for the plus 175 good for you don't get mad at me please i have cowboys over nine and a half lock and i have washington under seven half lock you have giants under five and a half or six half five what do we go no it's bigger seven and a seven and a half yeah that's a lock for you yeah i'm doing a plus adjustment house yeah we're giving you 90 seconds for each division go i am super bullish on the philadelphia eagles this upcoming season um it hurt me in my heart because i have too many eagles fans in my life and i really detest it but the way this division is shaking out the step backwards washington was poised to make a big jump forward and they didn't make it they didn't make it they didn't make it they didn't go forward after last season and these injuries that we're seeing offensive line and especially tonsils just such a gut wrench gut punch bummer um i think it's a gut wrench gut punch wow the giants are gonna suck the giants are gonna suck suck this is it for for harbaugh uh you know this could be like a p carol vegas like leaning more that way where it's like oh they got p carol credibility i love that i love that yeah and dallas is going to be better i have him at exactly nine wins um because the question of time is going to be a little bit longer i'm going to question marks with whether or not that defense really will translate but uh it's an eagles division i'm on eagles overs and all the rest of it okay i guess i guess i have to stick with dallas for the division but yeah i do think the eagles are going to be really good okay that was the nfc east we're in good pace 35 minutes we're gonna take a break we talked about farah we're gonna take a break we're gonna come back and uh we're gonna do the nfc norton the bill simmons podcast is brought to you by fanduel where the football season begins every team is undefeated that's right even the jets every fan believes this could be the year that the team makes the playoffs maybe even lifts the trophy fanduel they're right in there with you can bet on all of it you can use your nfl futures reward stack for an even bigger payout fanduel giving everyone 550 pbts that's right five can only be used from thursday 8 27 until end of the day monday 8 31 so unlock and use them before it's too late take some advice from me and the cuz check out 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sunday ticket for out-of-market games and youtube tv for local and national games youtube tv required terms restrictions and embargoes apply commercial use excluded no refunds we were just staring at farrah during the break we're a little distracted yeah i can't tell if that's a shadow or a possible like slight cold sore lower lip looks like a cold sore makes me like more um we took uh and don johnson has gonorrhea for sure did he give her that cold sore well we took a smoke break for don and don still just just continue to smoke i was staring at me nfc north hardest division of the of the eight right it's tough you could really make a case for there's people making cases for the vikings um there's a lot of people making case for the vikings we're gonna start with the detroit lions though a sexy summer team yeah people really excited for them they're over under a shocking ten and a half i thought it was gonna be nine and a half i don't did it start at nine and a half for now yeah it was for for a little while divisions plus 160 super bowl eight to one playoffs minus 205 13 plus wins plus 270 you're better off doing best record of plus 850. uh under eight and a half wins is three to one there's a couple of these that hit every year and we've uh we like if you had the chiefs last year we would have had the best record of plus eight fifty under eight and a half wins is three to one there's a couple of these that hit every year and we've uh we like if you had the chiefs last year um and you had them under even eight wins that was like plus 400 in november yeah i have two what ifs for you and you pick which one you want to answer what if this is the jameer gibbs holy shit 2006 thomlinson season what if this is the dan campbell farewell season you can go either way pick one interesting i think this is the do or die for the dan campbell kneecap biting experiment i really do we talked about like three teams in the nfc i think this has to be due i know the injury luck this is completely opposite of what we're going to talk about with the bears because they were like 31 in injury luck 32 30 or 32 and fumble luck like it's all that crazy stuff and they have i'll take both at once because gibbs should be better dropping montgomery right so should get a lot of those goal line carries good for you if you have the number one um fantasy pick but it's going to be a reversal of fortune can they not be the number two injured team in the league like it doesn't that's what we have to get past it already started out bad because they lost arnold and they have a shaky secondary to begin with which is the big fly new offensive coordinator and hopefully better health i i in my in my roster rankings i had them in the 30s at 31 their offense is fucking loaded 30 31 31 points a lot of points okay yeah one of the 530 put goff five gibbs three could be a four saint brown four jameson williams was like an 1100 yard receiver last year the porta hopefully healthy their o-line is above average two points for that and then defense hutchinson campbell joseph and branch and the rub against them is well joseph and branch are gonna be hurt to start the season then you look at the schedule saints week one at bills jets at panthers at cardinals by only one of those teams are gonna be able to throw on them which is the bills i think if they get out of that four and one you that over becomes more realistic i like the bounce back you talked about this on the nfc nfc north pod they're underdogs in three games yeah against the spread um they get to play the afc east and the nfc south afc's dolphins jets nfc south really probably three bad to almost bad teams i'm a slight over i'm 11 and six okay and i know it's popular i know it's a sexy pick but i think the i'm a slight over i'm 11 and six okay and i know it's popular i know it's popular i know it's a sexy pick but i think the they get to play shuck geno bryce brissett willis panic sirtua cam ward who's been a disaster in the preseason kyla murray jackson dart or wherever his backup is like wow when you put it that way it's interesting i mean because i think they're going to be a good team but it's going to win 10 games which puts them under right yeah 10 and 7 for me it's a tough one the only thing i disagree with you saying is like an above average offensive line they couldn't protect golf they were like 31st injuries last year that injuries a little better this year and they're still they're moving penny sewell to the left side miller the their first round pick is going to be on the right side so they've at least spent money and assets trying to fix it and last year they couldn't exactly so they could get off to a strong start you said it jets carolina arizona new orleans and four of the first five we could be looking at like a five and oh lions team and then saying oh my god why didn't we dump more the problem is they always lose one of those dumb ass games like on the road they'll have like 17 points with four minutes left against like carolina it's like what the hell is going on here i have gibbs two plus touchdowns in this game and it's not even close one of the reasons i really like the over because i do think they'll go four and one or five and oh whatever so now yeah that becomes easier if i have to get to 11 wins now i only need seven three months to do it yeah you can also really zag against this at the end of the year because week 17 week 18 is bears packers both road games so if they're 10 and 5 or 9 and 6 i feel like you can get out of that or you can hedge those games right but um i think they're i just think they're going to be good i think they have too much talent and whether or not this is kind of the the make or break dan campbell season i think they have one more in them usually these windows are four right they had two years ago was like they're big they almost made it but this feels like a four-year window to me and gibbs is spectacular i mean they the skill positions when you compare them so the other teams we talked about like they have well a top five wide receiver they probably have the best running back right they have one of the four best tight ends and they have a quarterback who every year throws for 4500 yards protect off and they're they should be fine and i think too much is made of oh ben johnson left and this offense can't do it well they were plus 66 point differential for a fourth place team that's insanity and they beat ben johnson twice right so they'll be okay um how's you are you pro or i'm very pro on detroit they went nine and eight last season with all of that injury everything went wrong they went nine and eight and they had a top 10 ish um difficulty in terms of schedule this schedule is the thing that sets it up for me you mentioned the division that could if they can go three and three in their own division you can go through that schedule and find the eight wins to get you to 11 so it's a good over for me a lot of indoor games too miami's their outdoor game until like the bears in january like that's that's their only outdoor game so i would have locked it but um i do wonder with the juju with them makes me makes me nervous it just seems like they've had bad luck now for a couple years here uh packers over nine and a half division plus 260 super bowl 22 to one playoffs about as even as we get here they're minus 116 to make it minus 102 not to make it 12 plus wins plus 270 under seven and a half wins is plus 260 there's a couple of these a couple of the alt unders for this division if you figure all four of these teams can't be good who's going to have like the same hell or whatever it's a seven and ten win candidate they were nine seven and one last year little fluky because they they knew they were in the playoffs with two games to go yeah um my would have for them is they lost their last five games last year post parsons injury right right he's not coming back to week nine what if that's just who they are a 500 team yeah i think there could be 500 until we get i mean i like this team a lot a lot more yeah i'm so interested why we kill the floor and he's killed us on three team teasers and parlays and everything so he's like i've killed you too yeah we've killed you i feel like to blow those bears games that second one that was like england argentina like they just played on their heels like that just that's perplexing if you go back and watch that game you had the conversation with mina jordan love i think a lot better not just statistically when you look and i feel like they had seven of the same receivers and they got like five of them became too confusing between the wicks and the dobs and now so they settled on jayden reed and justin watson and those guys of course have to stay healthy but i think that's the best of the bunch tucker craft so you think they weed it out yeah i think you just got too distracting like i don't even know when the wizards had seven swing men oh here we go christian watson christian christian watson what did i say justin that's what i'm here for you're good thank you thank you i appreciate it i did know that yeah i know yeah uh so you think they picked the best three because i would argue dobs is the most reliable of all the i just don't trust christian watson you know why because they've had him in fantasy so have you right and guess what the red flag is next to him by week three or he's out or he's coming back the challenge flag or the red every flag every flag's next to him yeah listen when the ball's in the air and he gets separation there's probably no one better right i mean tyreek hill's gone so christian watson i got that right right is the one i i don't know he might they might not even be the best two i just think it got cluttered without having like five different options and he could he could zone so they're only down to watson reed and golden who i had last year on both fantasy teams so they never ever threw to right um gannon's the dc which i liked lefleur every year is a top 10 offense so that's a positive i really went back and forth on this and tucker craft i love i assume he'll be a hundred percent i did like a better and worse for in my notes for how i thought the team was better than last year i thought was worse the worst like really made me lean under they lost jobs who i thought made big catches for them their offensive line and their defensive line in both trenches they really lost like they're but now below average on both sides that's just a fact parsons probably not back to week eight week nine range maybe even for your dallas game they not only are they only have three receivers left it's a position they've spent a lot of assets on over the years yeah like i think watson was a first round pick golden definitely was um but just in general they're always over and over again spending stuff they only have three left it's okay to have three receivers no i know but i just feel like they've spent a lot of assets on it not to mention the parsons trade right which left them without a first round pick um lefleur even though they gave him a contract i still feel like he's in limbo jacobs got in trouble had a thing in the offseason not great their special teams always sucks i had them at 22 points for their roster which usually throws me toward the playoffs but i couldn't get there i'm i'm under i'm nine and eight wow i think they're nine and seven one last year i think they're nine and eight there's a team i like more in this division than them okay and now i did not want to have three playoff teams so they were the loser nine and eight but i don't feel great about it i have them at 11 and six i think the jacobs thing feels like a lot jacobs is troubling for sure he's gonna miss time but marshawn lynch is uh is not a bad uh marshawn lloyd before uh you jump in there and marshawn lynch no he's not gonna do anything uh is decent uh replacement they have zaire franklin who had over 640 tackles in four years and the bundo said he couldn't cover like literally anybody in the nfl okay pass the numbers are there yeah for tackles um the uh you know the other thing is the nfl has a way of course correcting here so they know parsons are going to be out two months a month and a half whatever it is three out of the first four falcons jets and vikings so we could have a similar situation to the lions where this team is four and one they don't have to do a lot you know and he was concussed at that down the down the stretch there when they were like nine four and one he was concussed like the last uh three weeks jordan lobb i think there's a real own two chance for this team really at vikings week one at jets week two followed by oh and two complete panic should we fire the floor um well i'll go back to hating them if that's the case because i'll have i'll have them win both those games it's weird this vikings game in week one at minnesota i feel like is going to determine the overall they win that I think they get to 10 if they don't win that I'm dying to know who your team is and there's only two left in the division now there's more they added more Goodell he's always up to something so you're over 11 wins for them 11 and 6 a favorite in 13 games so you've had a complicated Packers relationship what do you mean there's been years where you've like really loved them we bet on them in the Super Bowl last year yeah during the season they came out the way they started off the season on both sides of the ball they were incredible they were definitely I got some money down after they kicked Washington's ass in week 2 on Thursday night they humiliated Washington they were incredible on both sides of the ball but the way the season ended I feel like there's a hangover you lose a playoff game the way that they did when you manufacture a goddamn playoff loss the way that they did you don't we all thought they were firing the coach after that they should've they should've can I give you one of my favorite theories sure social media quit waiting to happen can't wait for Eduardo put this thing on Eduardo sports city cluster theory what the hell is this walk you into October the Packers are one in three and everybody's panicking with the Bears came coming on October 11th that feels make or break for them Bucs season about to start everybody's like what the fuck did we get this Yanis trade this is terrible Brewers after a great season just getting bounced oh no they didn't they didn't even make it to October so they're like oh my god our Brewers season's already over and now Packers must win game and it's just like all colliding and maybe there's just a blizzard that day in October for the first time ever in Wisconsin my old college roommate Chip Cain just sending me long incoherent texts about how bad it is but I just I just I think all this stuff might be interesting might be together Badgers 2 and 7 alright yeah the Badgers are going bad alright I like them I don't know what to say ok Chicago Bears over nine and a half is the over under heavy juice on the over plus 115 on FanDuel division plus 340 Super Bowl 31 playoffs dead even basically plus 116 for the playoffs 12 plus ones plus 360 under 7 and a half plus 210 they were 11 and 6 last year people are just spooging regression all over this team regression that's it nobody can talk about the Bears rationally because that's your impression of the regression 45 seconds it's just regression regression regression regression here's another stat here's another stat they did this they did this counter go ahead I'm all in on Ben Johnson I think he's 10 wins every year I don't care what's going on with this team and I look at it this way so they go 11 and 6 last year make the playoffs have a couple miraculous Caleb moments they shouldn't have been a playoff team last year right if they had just gone 8 and 9 or 7 and 10 but had a couple upsets and really showed like signs and it was like oh this year here come the Bears watch out for these guys and instead they threw everyone off the scent because they had they won like 3 or 4 weird games I think this was supposed to be the Bears year I'm over I think they I think they go 10 and 7 and I'm a fan they didn't have a couple of comeback wins they had 6 wins in the last 2 minutes where they were trailing that should mean something it does it does I don't want to get on quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Bo Nix who came from behind and won that's a clutch gene that you should be very happy everyone in the Indiana area should be very happy that their team I'm sorry Chicago area that has the Bears to win Caleb Williams almost 4,000 yards which is unheard of for any Bears quarterback House thinks he's going to go over this year right listen to Richard Wise guys that's one of his big but that is regression like no other plus 22 turnover margin like that's if you look at Warren Sharp how he outlines this no one who wins the turnover margin at the top is anywhere close in the second year add to it they weren't really great in the non-turnover drives so Caleb Williams this is nice I appreciate his stretch routine he doesn't get his black fingernails really that doesn't affect them at all when he's stretching by the way Antonio Brown had some choice words for him today that was tough usually settle down Antonio usually holds himself there I don't know I got over an eight and a half but under nine and a half for the Bears have them at nine and eight nine and eight yeah so I have Chicago in this division and you have Green Bay Green Bay is basically where we where we differed I just think that last year was year one Ben Johnson I feel the same way about Vrabel now you have the staff you bring it over everybody's kind of learned the habits from last year I think they have a lot of skill position talent right my big fear if you're going to pick them apart I mean the regression rate obviously is a nightmare but the left tackle they have the worst left tackle in the week right the defense is a little sketchy but I do think they can win some shootouts I had their roster at 24 points I think Johnson's a top five QB they had that net rest rank they're number one they're plus 15 it's the second highest for any team since 1990 Courtney you're here or Warren Sharp who told us that Shadur Sanders 15 minute sideline interview was basically Frost Nixon listen we steal enough of his stats we should go no we do no we love Warren Sharp at Vikings week 18 yeah it's interesting they go Packers Christmas but that's home yeah Lions home at Vikings week 18 and that's probably going to decide this but that's a lot I'm I'm zagging the other way against all the regression crap and I think the Bears are going to be I think their offense is going to be top seven top eight wow I think they have an awesome coach and I just not betting against Ben Johnson DJ Moore might have been I mean they drove DJ Moore was a drive into the airport the entire fan base was ready to drive him to the airport and I loved I thought Loveland came on Kraft looked like Gronk in the first eight games of the year first four or whatever and then Loveland down the stretch he looked like he was the best tight end in the league I just think they have a lot of weapons I think people are a little bit too in love with Luther Burden who's like going to start out questionable yeah I just you know first place schedule now six toughest schedule you mentioned some of their you know Christmas Green Bay Thanksgiving Detroit to me it's like I really feel Ben Johnson's a good coach and he's going to they're going to get better eventually but he locked his door at the end of that season like oh my god that couldn't have gone better for me especially with the things that I had nothing to do with I mean if they have 16 fumbles and lose only four of them I get it that's I get it it's usually a red flag but I wonder now if we're too obsessed with all of these things and it's and we're just turning it into baseball with like oh it's on bases 300 and that just means this oh listen I am definitely it's a pretty small sample size 16 fumbles is not like 160 absolutely at Panthers week one home Vikings week two I think they're 2-0 after that and after that I need to go 8-7 I get 10 wins they give the safety Kobe Bryant from Seattle a big deal tough for Kobe the secondary is a little this is four months yeah the secondary worries me but they might not play somebody who throws the ball on them until right week seven I'm not locking it in but I just think it's going to be a little tougher last one's Minnesota they're over as 8.5 plus 430 for the division Super Bowl 41 playoffs plus 140 do you want to get nuts and go for them for 11 plus wins plus 240 they were 9-8 last year and it's just bizarre to me that people it seems like more people like the Vikings than the Bears yeah I just think that's abjectly insane I don't get it at all I did my player rankings they had one guy on defense who got points Van Ginkle one O'Connell gets points Jefferson the slightly above average offensive line might give them two points there but this all comes down to Kyler Murray and my what if for you is what if Kyler Murray kind of sucks why wouldn't he why the hell Cardinals paid him to go away yeah and then it's like Kyler Murray who knows it's like I thought we we went through this already he signed for 1.3 million dollars and half the ringer employers are making here's the thing had no other offers even kind of sucky Kyler Murray is better than what they had a quarterback last season they had arguably the worst quarterback Carson Wentz played professional football for his team and Maxie Brosmer was out there gave me Michigan hero JJ McCarthy I know it was terrible that's the worst quarterback room okay but if you put you can analyze what metric you want in a quarterback and I think his EPA is like right in the middle like 16th or something that's the thing he's like an advanced advanced stat it's like it's better than you think it's like okay so I guess I didn't watch any Cardinal games my whole life so he's right in the middle for that's fine he doesn't run at all you're definitely not getting the 2021 version can't throw over the middle can't throw over the middle he's not going to get the best out of Justin Jefferson if all the stats hold up he's just a horrific fit for Justin Jefferson anything downfield is 10% he's like 31st out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in downfield so what are you getting you're getting a guy that hopefully won't hurt you even though he did hurt the Cardinals many many times we saw last year so can I read you some stats remember the 2021 playoffs when they played the Rams that was their only playoff game. And I picked the Cardinals over the Rams, and I think they lost like 44 to 10. Monday night game. And Kyler Murray completely fell apart. Since then, next season, 3-8 as a starter. Year after that, 3-5. Year after that, 8-9. Year after that, 2-3. He's 16-26 in his last 42 games. We have this in basketball. I'm sure the advanced stats are favorable. This is fucking Zach Levine. This is Russell Westbrook in the 2020s. This is Bradley Beal on House's crappy Wizards teams. I'm glad the advanced stats look good, but we all fucking watch the games, and this guy's not a winning quarterback. And you can't tell me in this division that you're going to win nine games with him. I don't believe it. I don't think their defense is good either. It's like Flores, Flores, Flores. No, they don't have enough talent. Blitz heavy Flores. They lose Hargrave. They lose Jonathan Allen. Jonathan Greenard gets traded. They're, you know, depending on this, Caleb Banks, this defensive tackle who has like foot issues and stuff. Um, they have a rough stretch. I penciled in at Detroit, Buffalo at Green Bay at San Francisco. That's weeks eight through 11. I don't think that I think we're making Max Brosmer jokes around Thanksgiving again. I honestly I it's weird because in basketball, it's the opposite. People remember everything and hold everybody every playoff game against everybody. Yeah. And in football, we just get amnesia right? Like we're just looking forward and trying to figure out stuff and we just kind of forget what happened. Yeah. Kyler Murray, the Cardinals not only did not, they're paying him what 40 million a year, 50 million a year and paid him to go away. Oh yeah. And then it's like, Oh, I don't know. KOC quarterback whisper. He's the quarterback whisper. He just had JJ McCarthy who was a complete piece of crap last year. He was terrible. He says he's elite JJ McCarthy. I don't know if we can go by that. So you can't be the quarterback whisper. If your last quarterback that you drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft completely bombed. Right. That means you're, you're whispering, but nobody's listening to the words. Yeah. So I'm, I'm under your way under, is this a lock? I'm under, I have them at seven. So that's under, well, what's this number? Eight and a half. The number is eight and a half. Yeah. I am under. Um, I'm happy to lock it down if you want me to, but I, I I'm not going to force you, but there's other stuff. Yeah. I don't like this team at all. Yeah. So we're both under nine and eight last year. It feels like they're a game where it's the only reason I'm not a lock for this is what house said. Their quarterbacks were so bad last year that even if Murray can be just not a bottom 10 quarterback, it's impressive. They have to, they had to win what the last five to go nine and eight. Like I, I still really don't understand how they did it. I mean that Detroit game, they kicked Detroit's ass. Detroit needed that game, uh, to, to have any shot at making the playoffs. So they, they play the, uh, they play the NFC South along with everyone else in this division and they play the AFC East. That helps a little bit. And that means they get dolphins jets. Right. That means they get the three South teams. That's kind of maybe where you go with like how they could sneak to nine. It's just a great coaching performance. Yeah. Um, Kyler Murray's history was always Raheem talked about this on your NFC North pod. Really good. First two months of the season falls apart. Um, I just don't see it. I also don't think people even remember what Kyler Murray plays like, right? Like they think of him as a scrambling, exciting guy. That guy's been gone for four years. Yeah. That whole, that whole, that session of his life. I don't think so. They're favored in eight games. So I think they go under under that. It's a possible tank candidate too. I wanted to throw that out there. The under six and a half is plus two 90. But like if it's just not going well in November, do you just, or do you throw McCarthy back in? Do you see what you have there? We saw it last year. They won their last five games. That's how they got to nine wins. They were a tank candidate last year. That's not, that's not in the DNA. He's a sneaky first coach fire to Kevin O'Connell. I totally agree. I don't put them top three, but he could, you know, they get off to a slow start in that middle of the schedule is rough because he could do the whole thing of guys keep giving me these quarterbacks. Like, why didn't we keep saying Darnold? You fired the GM that made a lot of these decisions. Like maybe look in the fucking mirror. All right. NFC North, you have 90 seconds house. Yeah. So this division, uh, every team finished with a winning record last season. I think we're going to see the exact same thing this upcoming season. I'm slightly more bullish. You're going nine plus wins on every. Yeah. Yeah. I wonder if we get Fandle to do that as a parlay. Yeah. Every team in the NFC North will win nine games. I wonder yeah. I'm slightly more positive on Minnesota than you guys are. Um, the fact is what we've been talking about. There's a floor to the number of wins out of this division because of who they play. They, every team should have sort of built in six wins. So when you talk about Minnesota six wins, because they get the dolphins and they get the jets and they get the NFC South and then like a team like Minnesota, they have Washington on their schedule towards the end of the season. Like you can go through and find six wins for everyone. And then you're pushing up. So if you're starting from a six win floor, getting the, to, to nine wins is not that, that difficult. And we have good positive cases for all of these teams in terms of the skill, even if you know that, that bears defense, take a step back and this Vikings defense isn't going to be as good. Um, I still think that we're going to get to nine for every one of the teams. Wow. I think this is my number one pick for a division that will have a tie that will fuck with all of this. Oh yeah. Well, they have one where the Vikings go like eight, eight and one, but they also knocked down the Packers and the Packers are nine, seven and one. Yeah. But yeah, I I'm predicting the thing. All right. So your division winner is who Green Bay Packers, 11 and six. Wow. I'm really surprised by this. Yeah. Yeah. I have the Lions at 11 and six. So you, you think the Packers, what were the odds on that? That is plus 260. You'd like for that. I have the Lions at plus 160. I can't remember division in a while that had the, the favorite was plus 160. What do you mean? Like those are the, that's the best odds plus 160 out of 14. You can't remember your Patriots that are from the bills even before the Patriots. I'm saying usually at least somebody is like minus 110 or plus. Oh, I see. Yeah. Oh, plus. Yeah. It shouldn't be a plus. Yeah. We're all between like plus 160 and three to one. Okay. That's it for the NFC North. Quite a division. I think the most action packed, most arguments. I think it's the most fun to do the, uh, do the place finishes. You can go in any direction. I would probably go um, Lions, Bears, Packers, Vikes would be my four. I would let you pick four division orders and I'll book them all because I think it's that, that hard. Make it all you can eat buffet. There you go. Okay. Cozy season is ahead and you'll be spending way more time inside. Is your home ready? Don't worry. With Wayfair, you can upgrade your space without breaking the bank. Score up to 70% off during their Labor Day clearance on furniture, area rugs, mattresses, and more. Plus surprise flash deals you can't miss. Whether it's one room or the whole house, Wayfair has pieces for every style and budget. Shop Wayfair's Labor Day clearance now through September 7th at wayfair.com. Wayfair, every style, every home. All right. NFC South, the bane of our existence, just has brought us whatever the opposite of joy is. Unhappiness, despair, disbelief year after year and on pace again. We talked about how, uh, you could go over nine on all four NFC North teams. You could go under nine on all four of the NFC South teams and talk yourself into it. First one is Tampa, over eight and a half. Plus 175 for the division. Plus 140 for the playoffs. Ten plus wins is plus 175 as well. Eleven plus wins, plus 340. Keep that in your back pocket. Um, they were eight and nine last year. In a year where I would argue most things went wrong. Baker Mayfield had seven injuries. They lost their left tackle. Wide receiver injuries across the board. Mike Evans got hurt at the worst possible time. Came back. Um, it was just a mess. Defense was weird. Weird season. Felt like Bowles was gonna get fired. They really collapsed. Didn't fire Bowles. What if they fired Todd Bowles eight months ago? Would you feel better about this team? Wow. Well, can I backtrack a little? Because I have a little NFC South preamble here. I'm gonna blow my wad on the whole division. First of all, it's despicable. And I hate it. And I hate that we have to do futures for it. Because I don't want to have a bet. Case in point, last year, Bucs should have won a division. I don't know how they did. Carolina backed into a division title, losing week 18, somehow, and getting to eight and nine. And then Raheem bragged about how he had Carolina. But meanwhile, he had 19 other bets over the course of the year. Doing laps for this Carolina win. Ridiculous. This NFC South is, they should call it the NFC DMV. Because it is the DMV. It's representing the DMV, watching these games. It's tedious. What does that do for your DMV house? Different DMV. Okay. Oh yeah, no, yeah. The one where you have to wait in line. Tedious, inefficient, it stinks like piss. This is the NFC DMV. And why do we have to knock ourselves out trying to pick a winner, when they don't even want to win? Outside of the division, they win 35% of their games over the last five years. I saw that. It's by far the worst, right? The three of us have to pick a team to friggin win eight or nine, or God forbid, ten games. I have all four teams at seven and ten. And God bless me, I figured out a way, and it wasn't that hard to do. I did it game by game by game. So let's talk. I mean, there is many, many reasons to not give any of these teams more than seven wins or less than five. So you want to start with Tampa Bay? Yeah, let's start with Tampa. All right. I think they're, first of all, maybe I'm a little harsh on them because they did win the division four years in a row before this. And Baker had, you talked about that, it was injuries, bicep, shoulder, oblique. This is why they won't give him the extension. We were talking about it for MVP on our Sunday night pods for three weeks in a row. And then by the end of the year, he was, body parts were falling off. I loved it. People kept them out of their top 12, like quarterback rankings. I said, this is despicable. What are we doing? They have a new OC in Zach Robinson. That's a fifth OC in as many years. Like you said, they lose Mike Evans. I think it's a little better with Kenneth Gainwell, right? Bucky Irvin missed some time. I still like that offense, that Reuben Baines, a stud from Miami, he's a little banged up to start the year. They get Vita Veya, who threatened to hold out. They're favored in nine games, but I still give them seven wins. Like they were 0-6 against the AFC North under Todd Bowles. And that's- You didn't mention they lost Mike Evans. And Mike Evans, yeah. So that's, I don't know. I don't love the cornerbacks on this team. And I'm not a Todd Bowles guy. But Gainwell, I thought, was awesome last year for the Steelers. Their front seven, they nailed the draft. I think they, if I gave points to them, at player rankings for drafts, Bain is like, that was a miracle he fell to them. Their front seven's going to be really good. Like it's going to be get after the passer, kind of dangerous good. And this Ted Hurst they took, is a receiver in the draft who seems like he's actually going to play. And I like their receivers before that. I like Tez Johnson. I thought he had some moments last year. Like Buka, who got hurt halfway through the year. But I think they have firepower all over the place. I had their offensive line, I had them for six points. I had them as a top three offensive line. So they have that, the running game with Irving and Gainwell together. There's guys I like on the defense. I had four guys on the defense with them. They, the problem is they play some good QBs. Lamar, Burrow, Caleb, Love, Goff, Dax, Stafford, Herbert. They also play some horrible QBs. Two Atlanta games. Reset, a Cleveland game. Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young twice. Shuck twice. I'm all in. - Really? - Not only do I have them over, over eight and a half. - Don't be all in on any of these teams. - Kidding me? - Over eight and a half. I'm making it a lock. - Wow. - I think they can go 11 and six. I have them 11 plus wins is plus 340. I think this team is actually going to be good. I'm in on the Bucs. I think they nailed their draft and I think they're going to be healthy and they're in a shitty division. - You are a glutton. - I know. - A glutton for punishment. - I know. This is it. - I broke the news to house this morning. And guess what? We started debating bets. - We started going through it. - They're the best team in the division, but it doesn't mean they have to win any more than seven games because they're the toughest three hour watch in all of football. They're four and 12 in primetime games. I think they're one on their bowls. They're one in nine since Baker got there. It's despicable. Their red zone defense. The red zone defense is just awful. Anyone gets to the 10, just don't even run another play, you're in. - I don't know, I think their front seven's gonna be good. I think they're gonna be good. Also, here's another thing. This is how much thought I've put into Tampa. So at Bengals week one, we'll talk about Bengals and AFC, but you can probably guess I'm zagging on them. Next three games, all at home in September. Browns, Vikings, Packers. Let me walk you through your memories of what happens in Florida in September. It's fucking hot. - Yeah. 'Cause like Lombardi always used to talk about this. These games in Carolina or Tampa in the first three or four weeks of the season where it's like 95 degrees on a Sunday or it's 80 with like a ton of humidity. The Browns, they get the last Deshaun Watson game ever. That's a win. Kyler Murray the next week. And then the Packers. I actually think they could be four and O heading into week five against your Cowboys on a Thursday night. - Talk to me about December. That's when they lose their games. - That's fine. - That's when they blow all their games, so. - That's cool. - But they do. And we're gonna talk about the Falcons in a second. I think the Falcons are gonna be bad. So that's two wins there. But I'm in. I really like this Tampa team. - They bit me hard last year. - I get it. - What was that Thursday night against Atlanta? - If you could give yourself amnesia for last year. - Yeah. - I feel like you'd feel better about Tampa. - They're the best team. They have the best roster. - They definitely are better than they were last year. - Yeah, sure. - So the question for me is Baker, is he just the guy who gets hurt every year? - Yeah. - He's had a lot of injuries. He's been banged up a few different times. - Who is it back up? Jake Browning? - Yeah. - I'm looking. They have the Kansas quarterback. Oh, Jalen Daniels is funny. - They have Werfs back. Everybody glosses over that. Like, we just made a big deal about Tunsell and Washington. Werfs is one of the best left tacklers in the league. They didn't have him last year. - That's true. - Saints, over seven and a half, plus 270 for the division. Plus 198 if you like 'em for the playoffs. Under five and a half wins, plus 250. They were six and 11 last year. What if they played Shuck all last season? Did they win the division? We all love Shuck. - Yeah. Well, were they six and 11 you said last year? - Yeah. - Yeah. Could they go eight and nine to win the division? Yes. I think that's the answer. I was gonna pencil them in for eight wins, but then I thought seven and 10 for everyone is funnier. And also, not great off season, right? We got, you know, Kamara's banged up. Olave already something. - Well, they paid for Etienne. - Right. Etienne, I don't know if he's a $48 million running back, but an improvement. - He was 10th in our league in fantasy points last year. - Yeah. Jordan Tyson, that's not good. The wide receiver for Arizona State. - Hated that pick. - No good. Yeah. - It's so funny when they take these receivers who couldn't stay healthy in college, and they take them eight, the Saints did in this case, but these guys are top 10 picks, and the draft guys are like, if he could stay healthy, it's like, well, we have a whole track record, he can't. Then he gets to the training camp. Guess what? He gets hurt. - Right. - Right. - Was anyone shocked to see that Jordan Tyson is hurt? - No. - This guy? I think this can be also- - He was fun to watch when he was on the field. - Yeah, he had like two of those training camp things where I'm losing my voice. - You're getting emotional, I know. - I'm really upset about Jordan Tyson. But he had like two training camp moments where he'd be like, oh my God. Whoa, look at this guy. Got hurt. - Right. - I just want to say, because I have no other platform to do this other than probably this podcast. I love Deshaun Vele. He was my favorite random receiver last year. I had him in fantasy and he was like a God, and then he got hurt, but he was like, just keep an eye on him. Can Tyson or Lave stay healthy is a big question mark with this team. My guess would be probably not. Brandon Staley is still the DC. They just, they have no blue chippers on D at all. It's basically Chase Young's resuscitated body and that's it. - Yeah, I mean, he had 10 sacks in 12 games last year. I just, the trade off that was tough for me to reconcile is number three dead cap money, which doesn't, that's really tough to hold. - Yeah, okay. Versus number two easiest schedule, so. - And they have nine home games instead of eight. - Right. - So nine in the Superdome. - Yeah. - Falcons, who they, who I think are going to stink. They play, so they're at Lions, at Ravens first two. So they're going to be 0-2. - This is, we've moved on to the Falcons? - No, no, this is the Saints. - He's going through the schedule. - Oh, I got you. - Raiders week three, Falcons week four. - How, she'll let me know what he's doing at all times. - I'm just giving you the Saints. - No, I got you, good. Yeah. - Week four Falcons is the Hurricane Katrina anniversary game. - Yeah. - They're not losing that. - Right. - Vikings week five, at Giants week six. That just feels like three and three, right? So at that point, the over under is seven and a half. Can I go five and six the rest of the way? - Yeah. - With the Saints? Shuck worries me because of, he just took huge hits last year. He's like a little Jackson Darty-ish. - Right. - Less blue tent, but just completely fearless. I don't even know who their backup is. - Yeah, I think it's, I wonder if we're giving him too much credit because he went like 15 and two on teasers for us, but he's like 30th in the red zone. Oh, he's rookie, you know, it's hard. - I'm changing my pick. I had them as an over eight and a half. - No, you can't change. - No, I'm doing it. I'm doing unders. - Really? - I have them at seven wins exactly, seven and 10. - So that's under. - That's it. - That's under. - Seven and 10. - I can't go eight. - Keep everyone at seven and 10. You're probably gonna get hurt. - It's the easiest thing to do. Everyone's at seven and 10. - Crazy thing with the Saints, their home schedule is incredible. They only play one team with a win total forecasted to be better than eight and a half. They play, you know, Minnesota's sitting right there at eight and a half and Green Bay is at nine and a half. - They played Tua or Penix twice. Brissette, Deshaun or Sanders. Dart for his backup. Kyler Murray. Cousins or Mendoza. Rodgers and Bryce Young twice. - Not bad. - I'm changing my pick back. - What? - I'm going over. - Oh my God. - What the hell is going on here? - Back over. - Lord have mercy. - Yeah, I changed my pick back. - If I tell you the backups. - There are no rules. - I tell you when the backups are, you might change again. Spencer Rattler, Zach Wilson. - Spencer Rattler's still there. - Back under, go back under now. - Can I pick the seven and a half exactly? What is, what are the odds for seven and a one? - Seven and a tie. You say there'll be a tie, it doesn't count. But this is the thing, the end of the season when it's like we're doing the total, it's like, oh my God, this Saints over. this. I almost might let you make the pick for me here. Are you over on that? I can't remember. We haven't done NFC South yet. Well, do it now. Okay. I'm under. I like them at 7 and 10. 7 and 10. It's just too much open question with the defense. I'm not there. Defense is bad. One more thing, and I meant to give this to you before you went on with the fantasy fellas there. Taysom Hill retired. Yeah. That's a win. That'll be the extra win they don't get. But fantasy Hall of Famer, like really like I think so. Incredible. Most added drop player ever, you think? More conversations about his eligibility than maybe every player ever. More fights. I feel like he swung weeks. Yeah. There was playoff games that he felt like. Right. True fantasy Hall of Famer. Yeah. All right. Atlanta Falcons, the over under 7 and a half plus 290 for the division. Under 5 and a half wins is plus 220. Last year they were 8 and 9. My what if for you is what if this is actually somehow a worse QB situation than Cleveland? Wow. What if this is our number one worst QB situation? Because here's the situation. Tua, who got paid to go away by Miami because he literally can't play football anymore. Right. Competing against Michael Penix on his third torn ACL, who hasn't even really started scrimmaging until this week. And Tua couldn't win the job. He was competing against nobody. It was like he was playing tennis against a big backboard and couldn't beat the backboard. I don't ask this today. Why didn't they just keep cousins who they're paying anyway? Yeah. Why not just keep cousins instead of like, oh, we can get Tua for 1 million? Yeah, because he sucks. This is going to completely ruin them. I'll give you some Michael Penix stats. 4 and 8 as a starter career. 12 TDs. 6 INT. 22 for 80 rushing. Might be the least athletic quarterback in the league. Right. And has a bad knee. And they're dying for him to get back. Like Stefanski's like, you're ready. I don't care. Can you play in crutches? That's it. Stefanski is basically the only thing that's good about what they did. Here's what's bad. The QB situation. They took Pearson Walker, their two big first round picks a year ago. Pass rushers. We're going to have speed on the edge. We're going to be a different Falcons team. Pierce was stupid. Dumb. Well, he's Pierce's out for the year towards ACL. Walker got suspended through week eight. Those guys are gone. They lost all the other guys that they had. They have the worst front seven in the league. They have no wide receiver past Drake London. Their offensive line, which was always top five, is now no longer top 15. I think this team's a dumpster fire. This is I have them going four and 13 this year. This is my biggest lock out of all the over-unders. I had Falcons. I couldn't be. It's a fully erect under lock. Another one. Sorry, Farrah. Poor Farrah. I just can't believe how bad I like. I can't believe it's seven and a half. I think it should be five and a half. Like, how do they have not don't have the worst thing in the other than the Cardinals in the NFC? Because it's the NFC South. They can't put anybody that low because they're these are there's wins all over the place. They could be the dumpster fire and still go three and three in the division. I agree with you. Also, their schedule is weirdly hard. Here's who they play for quarterbacks. Love Lamar, Burrow, Caleb, Purdy, Mahomes, Goff, Daniels, Baker twice with a shitty defense. They're going to go to at Steelers week one. I'm betting the Steelers now. I'm just telling you home Panthers at Packers at Saints home Ravens, home Bears, home 49ers at Bucks. Yeah. And they're playing the Bengals in week nine in Madrid. They might be 0 and 8. Interesting. It gets easier towards the end. I think December, it's their Cleveland, Washington, Tampa, New Orleans, and Carolina. They have the division games and plus Cleveland and Washington Chiefs. They might be 0 and 10 heading into their bye week. I think they're gonna be off. Look, it's this is tough for Stefanski, right? Two time coach of the year. It's like, oh, Stefanski. Stefanski was terrible last year. We were complaining about him the whole year. The Browns blew these games last year. I don't think he was terrible. He was a classic. Are we sure he's good coach last year? I mean, his best win was when he was. Coaching from home with COVID when they beat the Steelers in the playoffs. But he also has these like shiny toys on the top shelf that I don't think either of the quarterbacks could reach with B. John Robinson and even Kyle Pitts like broke out a little bit. And obviously Drake London. So Kyle Pitts broke out a little bit just enough to get him a contract. That's right. That now he's gonna go back to being Kyle Pitts. Yeah. House, can you name a single receiver other than Drake London on the Falcons? No, because I knew Darnell Mooney was on the team for a little while, but he plays for the Giants now. It's like Dotson or something, right? And that Zachariah is a Kias Drake London. Just double team him. Yeah, he probably doesn't even make it through the year. I just Zachariah. I don't see any Georgia receiver they like, but also here's another thing. Not only they're gonna suck week three Thursday night football week for Monday night football Saints week five Sunday night football Ravens. Why are they giving us the Falcons? It's stupid fucking consult anybody of all that B. John B. John gave us. That's the most fascinating thing for fantasy. Where does B. John go this upcoming season? Yeah, he's not on my team. I agree. Not on my team. Please number three tomorrow. You're not gonna take B. John. Is that right? I don't want anybody in the Falcons. All right. So you just have spline seven and ten. It's fine. Seven seven is under right. It's under seven and a half. So I'll go on. Wow. Violent by Han Dotson is on this team. Olamide is a case. This is the fifth string wide receivers from all these days. Both of these guys they did a nice thing. They drafted the brother. The Terrell brothers are cornerbacks. This is fun. It's fun to watch. They're gonna stink. I feel the strongest about this about any NFC team. Last one Carolina over six and a half division plus 340. So if you think the NFC South is gonna everybody's gonna suck again. Might as well grab the plus 340 from Carolina plus 245 for the playoffs. Don't do that. Worst record is 15 to one Super Bowl is 80 to one. The what if for them Sal is what if they've had too many injuries? Already and this is shaping up as a bad juju season. They've already lost both tackles who I think will come back maybe October. They lost their third receiver. They lost Gordon who they paid money for and it's just it. This felt like the team when training camp starts and it's like this happened. Oh, this happened. They weren't good. It's fine. You could say it. They weren't good. They had a minus 69 point differential for a division winner and by the way, what's there? Can you imagine their division winner? Not many changes but they're over six and a half because they were disgusting. There was seven and three in one score games. They have a third toughest strength of schedule this year. They don't know what to do with Bryce. They didn't even give him an extension or anything, right? If anyone needed a 50 year guarantee to check out to see if he's good and I don't think that he is. He's 31st and EPA. What do you need to see? You know, I have them seven and ten, but I felt like they're as lucky as you could get as a team was. So I had them at seven and ten as well because I really like the Rams playoff game they played. I thought they had a couple games last year where they threw some punches. We watched that at Shakey's. They threw some punches against good teams. We also, House and I sat next to Jalen Coker. Yeah. At the Bob Cousy game. Love Jalen Coker. And he was talking about how he was really mad. He felt like they could have beaten the Rams and he wasn't like saying it. Like he was serious. Right. So I'm slight over for this. You talk about three, three. We have to watch them three primetime games to two on the road at Philly and Akron back. I wrote about this once back when my fingers worked like 20 years ago. The backhanded compliment scale for starting QBs from one to ten 1.0 is shrugging helplessly. I think that's Cleveland and maybe Atlanta this year. Right. 2.0 is I mean, he's not a train wreck or anything. 3.0 is you could do worse. 4.0 is you could definitely do worse. 5.0 is I'll tell you he's not bad. 6.0 is throws a good deep ball. I will say that 7.0 is say what you want about the guy, but he makes plays Baker Mayfield 8.0. It's not pretty, but he's pretty effective. Number 9.0 is you could make the playoffs with this guy. And 10.0 is look, if the Ravens can win a Super Bowl with Trent Delford, that hit it, Paul. My question for you is where is Bryce Young in this? Is he is he a you could do worse or is he you could definitely do worse? He's an 11.0. When the hell do we see Kenny Pickett? I would add you're at shrugging helplessly for Bryce Young. Look again, very lucky. Give him seven wins. Let him fight it out. Week 18 with everyone else. I know I'm no fun with this division. I'm sorry, but you're not going to convince me to bet a future on it better and worse year. Two of Macmillan is probably the one better. They have some five guys on their defense that got points for me. Brown Phillips, Horn Jackson and more. They have a great punter. Blackshear good, pretty good special teams in general. Good for him. So that feels like they'll still win or two. I like I wouldn't do it as a lock, but I got a lock for them. I like their their second round pick. This guy Lee Hunter is from Texas Tech. They call him the fridge. I'm excited to see him. The fridge, the second fridge can't be the fridge. We had a fridge. - He hasn't eaten today. He's just been hungry. - Oh, I'm sorry, House. - We were talking. the nfc sound had done that i would advise everyone if you like the way that these guys have been talking to get on the fanduel sportsbook where you can play division exact order if you believe that the tampa bay buccaneers are going to finish first and the atlanta falcons are going to finish last you just swap carolina and new orleans in the 2-3 position both ways are better than 10 to 1 odds that's a nice way to make some money for america better than 10 to 1 atlanta first i mean uh tampa first atlanta last bet both ways carolina and and new orleans i'm trying to help america i am sooner able to figure out the equation on the blackboard and goodwill hunting than to fucking pick a one through four you gotta do it no way it's such a bummer because when i do the prep and there's like i love the worst of first as you talked about earlier you can't force it i tried to force it a couple times the last two pots i'm not doing that anymore you can't force it i'm not doing that anymore um and then the oh this division sucks i'll talk myself into a team that has the worst odds and and you just can't um least wins by division last year the nfc east was 27 wins yeah that was the worst 24 afc south 25 wins 23 was nfc south 27 wins and then the afc south and 22 and 23 wins so that's the lowest we've had so you think 28 wins for this division yeah seven and ten the across the board i'll pick you want my worst to first i'll take new orleans to win the division that's fine okay that's it at seven and ten i have a hard hard hard lock on tampa and i think they win this easily to the point that week set week 17 18 they got week 17 rams week 18 saints that might help the saints over right if tampa is just like ah we're the three seed we're not doing anything um okay that's it for the nfc south we made it so we got through it we did it never again next year hey uh quick quick break for fanduel our friends let's do it nfl so close to being back fanduel as you covered all season long um they have an nfl futures reward stack for the nfc so backstory i tried to get our friend christian happy birthday christian yeah yeah this weekend yeah the ceo great job we love him he's been a great friend to the to the ringer love everybody at fanduel we tried to get them to do like a black friday type thing for friday and this is so smart i couldn't totally do it but they're doing it anyway because they have an nfl futures reward stack and it's for the nfc and you can do five profit boost tokens um where you get a 50 pbt so like for instance speak english is a nice discount you get a nice little discount on the yeah basically like if you like my tampa case for plus 170 right or whatever they are to win the division of the league and then you put that in on the fanduel with the pbt they'll add 50 to it um any of the stuff we've talked about so far which will go through the locks at the end of the podcast um and they have player milestones they have regular season wins make miss playoffs um and two wild card things you get you have up to five player milestones this is one you did on the nfc north pothouse the the caleb over for passing yards what was it like 3700 it's been a while it's 35 75 and a half i couldn't recommend that more highly and it's he beat that by like 400 yards yeah he almost did for 4 000 last schedule is harder they're gonna be in more games they're gonna their defense isn't as good he's gonna have to throw i thought that was a great one receivers are better good one um regular season wins you can use either of the ones sound i did right make or miss playoffs i really like dallas to make the playoffs i think you do too um but i would also do tampa and then uh you can do whatever you want with any of the other ones so as you covered right now all season long listen to all of our future picks make sure to get into the action yourself the pbt five pack expires end of the day monday august 31st you have five days house you'll be back in dc you can i'll get them all on all of these you know i'm gonna be on all of them five pack yep all five five for five show us your five pack it's right here after the pizza ten slices of bianco going right into the he's a dominant pizza consumer we ordered nathan hubbard too many pizzas and nathan always brags about how much pizza you can eat yeah with good reason there's one sad slice left after all these things and nathan's like i'm done i've tapped out and the thing was there for five minutes we're like nathan really this is just they're gonna throw this out it's a long time yeah and he just kind of sadly reached over and finished it off he's about to get on a flight yeah he's probably destroying the airplane bathroom right now yeah yeah i might want to download that exxon mobile rewards plus app yeah are you the exxon tiger i am yeah you know new users can earn ten dollars in points five bucks after your first purchase and five after your second that's a lot that's a whole lot it is well hey you get on that download buddy i will loading download the exxon mobile rewards plus app and join today exxon trust the tiger for details visit exxonoffer.com cozy season is ahead and you'll be spending way more time inside is your home ready don't worry with wayfair you can upgrade your space without breaking the bank score up to 70 off during their labor day clearance on furniture area rugs mattresses and more plus surprise flash deals you can't miss whether it's one room or the whole house wayfair has pieces for every style and shop wayfair's labor day clearance now through september 7th at wayfair.com every style every home the nfc west okay wow this is more like it this is good let's go come on good arguments here yeah we'll start with the la rams who are prohibitive super bowl favorites plus 500 nobody else is is lower than 10 to 1 um 11 and a half wins minus 145 12 and a half wins under is minus 145 so fando has unpegged basically exactly at 12. divisions almost even odds minus 115 playoffs minus 550 plus 410 for the rams not to make the playoffs house yep do you stare at that at all yeah i i mean at that price we'll talk about the case for that best record plus 330. under nine and a half wins plus 360. they were 12 and five last year i think they lost the five games by 11 points here and everything and they're uh over under again they need to get basically to 12. but what if for you what if let's go big picture beyond the gambling what if they don't make the super bowl this year yeah like is to to to you is this make or break do or die it has to be this year i kind of think i feel like the matt stafford why the hell isn't he put in a coffin debate like how has this not happened already and yes in that regard yeah it's got to be this year how many years can we hear about back surgeries spinal fusion that sounds like an ugly term it doesn't matter like they extend them for 55 million dollars and now they have the offensive mvp yeah you got them right he won it over drag maybe and uh and the defensive mvp miles garrett like i hate it because the last six weeks i put together 157 page document just to tell you that the rams are going to be as good as everybody says so you think they will i do yeah you're last 30 years last 30 years only the patriots have been big favorites like this and actually won the super bowl in 2018 every other time the team fell short um they added mcduffie and watson they added garrett obviously and probably aaron donald which i think has been overrated by everybody because if he plays it's going to be in the digs 30 plays a game type thing right in the playoffs it'll matter i think more than it does during the regular season here's what's worse about them offensive line is unquestionably i think shaky is fair right depth they don't have it puka had we talked about this on the fantasy pot i did on tuesday puka had just the weirdest nine to ten months you can have and then was like no no i'm fine i went to rehab and then walked through a glass door at michael rubin's white party and fun i don't know what to make of what's going on with him stafford's 38 i did this when i when i had palisade on two weeks ago about 38 and up it's basically 10 seasons that somebody's really come through yeah i don't like the australia game to start the year makes me nervous and then they had the 13th pick in the draft and took ty simpson who's not going to play don't love him special teams always bad always seems to cost them two games aleric jackson is he gonna get suspended not suspended that's their left tackle i had them at 32 points for their roster um they play afc west nfc east they have the most brutal five weeks of anyone to start the season 49ers in australia giants on monday night at broncos at eagles home bills just to kick off i couldn't get to 12 wins with them i'm under they lose the oc right michael floor yes they lost him too i just i can't davante adams gonna be 34 i just as blue chippers all over the place the one thing that screwed them was the special teams and i feel like that's the easy thing to fix right if you had one unit and they bring this guy in bubba ventrone is now their special teams coordinator who sounds like an 80s jobber right it sounds like he's gonna lose ventrone sounds like somebody trone well like tony barbieri would bring to the draft ventrones in town well i don't want to get too excited he might be a jobber because he he was the special teams coordinator for cleveland guess what place cleveland yeah oh my god they were special teams yes i'm not going under they figure out this offense quorum and kieran williams at 2 000 yards combined and 19 touchdowns they do the two plus tight end set better than everybody right um i just you know i know five top five hardest schedule but i don't think i i can't put this team under 12 wins i got them at 13 and four okay you said blue chippers everywhere i would counter and zag the other way and say it's a top heavy team with a couple guys that worry me adams is right at the range when wide receivers do this puka we talked about stafford at age 38 he gets bought rid of the ball so fast i know like it doesn't seem to matter i was between 11 and 12 i just i like the uh i like the juice better for um under on fando is plus 125 for the under 11 and a half um and i like another team more in this division is really what it came down to really but this seems to me we've seen this happen in football before when there's this much smoke being blown up the asses of a team and one bad thing happens or somebody gets injured or they lose some game they shouldn't lose and that's all anyone talks about it becomes the biggest story that i just feel like there's such a big spotlight on this team i still have them in the playoffs i still think they're going to be one of the seven best teams but weren't they the scariest team last year like weren't they the team you didn't want to play forever right even with seattle got lucky in the in the regular the season game and that could have gone either way you look at byron young he had he's the other edge he had 12 and a half sacks he had 29 quarterback hits and now he's gonna have free run at these quarterbacks with miles garrett probably would be double team and i think the secondary will be better because miles garrett is double team schedule is really rough um are they still favored and like by the way this division plays the afc west and the nfc east right so you get the three good afc west teams and the eagles and the and the cowboys so that could be five tough games not to mention all the other stuff we uh we said um that o-line allowed 23 sacks i think which is still it was the least so somehow they do protect him because he gets rid of the ball yeah and then there's mcveigh um i the ty simpson pick was just so weird yeah i'll never understand it if you've like on the one hand you're going all in for garrett and on the other hand you're like we gotta think about the future you just traded all your picks for miles garrett it's also totally fine to have that mindset why would you use a 13 pick on a guy that everybody projected to be was third round that's the part i don't like those they could have ruben bain yeah right yeah and stetson bennett's a backup by the way if you look at the depth chart he's number two right now i thought that was so weird so you're over okay i'm going on i can't put this on there seattle seahawks is over 10 and a half for the defending champs plus 220 for the division please mark that one one of my favorite bets i don't understand how um they are two to one odds to win the division and the rams are dead even go figure playoffs minus 215 number one seed plus 650 best record eight to one 12 plus wins i have in bold plus 155 13 plus wins is plus 280 um okay i haven't done this the whole podcast what are we hour 40 in six six hours 12 minutes i haven't talked about the new england patriots yet oh you did talk about the red socks yeah and something about the wizard that was your first interjection i didn't like um i'm at the patriots we win the super bowl the second time they beat the panthers right uh-huh oh three end up winning the super bowl in 04 as well and between 03 and 04 what happened everybody's like eh colts it's colts here here it comes colts colts colts colts colts what happened the pats i think they won 21 straight over the over the two years which was a record um they put together the back-to-back like 14 and 2 15 and 1 i can't remember it was so long ago um that went and put the smackdown on the colts again i love that it's a very rare occasion where somebody won the super bowl and it's also the nobody believes in us team wow just an amazing spot for them to be in they win the super bowl and it was like eh rams rams rams rams these guys brought everybody back everybody not everybody well they lost woolen how about the super bowl mvp they lost walker but they drafted price to from notre dame to be whatever but when i did my roster they had the most uh roster rankings most points 38 um i had seven guys in their defense that got points which is by far the most not to mention their special teams are awesome dixon and shaheed both got points for me on that they have one of the best receivers in the league if not the best i think the price thing we talked about in the first half of the season was the best receiver in the league if not the best i think he's gonna be good i don't think they're gonna lose anything and then mcdonald was the best coach in the league last year i'll give you this is a team that should have gone 19 and 0 the games they lost they easily could have won they kind of blew and i think they're better than the rams i really i've thought i felt this the whole summer it's not a zag i genuinely think they're better and i love that everybody's saying the rams are better i think this is perfect i think there's a real back-to-back case for them maybe i'm just bored with hard knocks because they put spent like 20 minutes on sam donald's spiral yeah the other day i was like all right enough but my counter is how the f did this team win the super bowl sam donald went from 12 interceptions to 14 interceptions he was the most turned over player in the nfl last year their over-under was seven and a half this is remarkable what they did here's who has an over-under seven and a half wins the steelers bucks saints colts would you bet any of those to make it past the divisional round like i mean that was one of my big bets last year we won all kinds of seahawks futures i just don't know you know that second most giveaways first team to have zero turnovers in the playoffs it was a miracle that they had all these giveaways they were doing it i think mcdonald's great i really do i think that's the difference i think he's the best coach in the top three offense top three defense you could say whatever you want you could explain it away he is great 15 and 2 on the road in the last two years they don't take any games off they play hard for him they have a real home run field i just think it's tough to do they lose the super bowl mvp um all the quarterback coordinators left with kubiak which is a kind of a big thing i don't know the kubiak thing is the one piece that worries me but i would argue he created this template that they're going to continue to use no he took that with him no okay all right they lost three starring defenders too so here's another thing yeah so their schedule which is hard but not quite as hard as you would think it would be one of the best things to happen on their play in the patriots in the first game the patriots aren't going to win that i love the patriots we're not winning that button you're sure we're not winning that game who cares it's a super bowl loser going back playing the super bowl winner like we're not winning that game but later in the season maybe we can go in there but that's just like such a bad spot for the pats um they play the chargers at home they play the cowboys that's a monday night at home they play the eagles in mid-december right around when the eagles start doing weird shit and then they're at the rams but it's week 18 they might not even need the game or they might really need the game time and five are at home so that definitely that definitely there's some shit teams on this schedule too um but i just so you don't think 14 to 11 like that's where i have them i have them 11 and six still good well the over is ten and a half so right okay i mean it's an over so there you go it's good over i have them at 13 and four and i like the 13 plus wins at plus 280 i like the one seat at plus 650 i like i like i'm bullish on all of these how about i think it's gonna be surprising every time they lose sure what about terry and arnold karma i didn't love that i don't get it but how is that didn't stop the chiefs as they had 14 weird things happen over five years no i get it i just don't know i don't believe in football karma anymore because the chiefs like defied it well why it's kind of the patriots did too since we had a double murderer on our team oh yeah i didn't and we're gonna see what the ravens with the max crosby thing because that was ridiculous too but um why do you do why the lions have to cut them and then another team could just get them and it's fine i just think there's no honor in football okay the they lost their second rounder bud clark who wasn't supposed to start but it was like important for backup stuff it really if price can be 95 percent what walker was and the seahawks fans i think all really liked walker but also didn't 100 trust him because he was never he don't just have some weird banged up in some way charbonnet is a little hurt too right charbonnet is a little hurt so if price is a bust i don't think he's gonna be i'm just saying house donald wasn't all that it was a remarkable run but statistically it was improbable and yet they they did it yeah that's the i'm gonna walk you through this really quick there's a world where they're 10 and 0 after 10 weeks wow i think you make a case they're favorite in every one of these games yeah they're pats week one at cards at commanders i think that's three and oh chargers 49ers at home they're gonna be favored in both of those at broncos on Thursday night. Might not be favored on that. That's week six. Chiefs-Bears home. Cardinals home. At Raiders week 10. And the bye. And the bye. I think they're going to be 9-1 or 10-0. I have a mate in two. I think I'm taking crazy pills with the Seahawks. Their roster is so fucking loaded. And the only thing you can say is, oh, they won last year. It's the year after. It's like, nobody's picking them or talking about them, and everyone's moved out of the Rams. I think they'd see it and notice it. Good team. We more or less agree. It's an over, right? Yeah, but you like the Rams one. I do. There you go. See? Put that on your bulletin board, Mike McDonald. Cousin Sal, year 20. San Francisco 49ers over 9.5. Division plus 340. I would not recommend that. Super Bowl 17-1. 12 plus 1 is plus 230. Playoffs minus 134. Not to make it plus 114, House. Under 8.5 wins, plus 190, if you're really banking on the year from hell. Last year, they were 12-5, and nobody understood it as it was happening. What if we already know this is the year from hell team? You could argue they were the year from hell team last year. There's no preseason drama. Let me give you some stuff. Go ahead. Kyle Shanahan, terrible car accident, covered up. We still don't know what happened. And got a severe concussion. Right? Bad start. Big, little scandally over there. Mm-hmm. Jed York, owner in a trailer park in Ohio. Say it without laughing. Allegedly paying for a prostitute. Had that happen. Ricky Pearsall, they lost for the year. George Kittle tore his Achilles in 2026 in January. Is he just going to come back and be George Kittle again? He's in his early 30s now. Fred Warner coming off a really bad knee injury. Is it knee injury or ankle? It was knee, I thought. Knee. McCaffrey, they struck oil with him. Last year, there's a lot of advanced stats against him. They're rolling the dice with Evans and Debo together. Two guys that. They didn't want to sign Debo. They're like, well, please, what do we have to do? We can't do this. Everybody's hurt. And they have an electrical substation that might be fucking up all their players next, I think. I'm out. Let's talk about that electrical substation. Why can't they move? It's a practice facility. Let's see what happens. Maybe everybody's wrong, but move for a year. It can't cost too much money to move those players. If I owned the team, I would move the practice facility. Just move it. Move it to a trailer park in Ohio, whatever you have to do. Maybe he was scouting locations. Exactly. That's what I would have said if he was smart enough. I was looking. Ohio, it's not that far from San Francisco. Exactly. Yeah. Short flight. Here's my counter. I think they're bulletproof with these injuries. It's very fair. They had 74 player injuries before week one last year. And they were still. They could have won the division. They were playing Seattle. What was it? Week 17? They were up right to win that division. So they would have been in the mix. It's very weird. Very weird what happened. Listen, this is not a lock for me. I did a very tiny under at 9-8. It's plus 115 on Fando, so there's a little juice on it, but they're either going to be 10-7 or 9-8. I had them at 11. I have them at 11-6. I would not do that. Miami, Arizona, home for Denver. I think could be three wins outside of that Rams game. They travel more than anyone else. I'll say that. Like 38,000 miles, which has never been seen before. I had that roster at 26 points, which says they're going to be a playoff team, but doesn't account for the fact that they're in a division with probably the two best teams in the conference. O-line's a little above average. Defense should be okay. Shanahan, assuming he's recovered from his mysterious car accident, is still a top five or six coach. I guess the question for me, can they be three and two after five weeks at Rams in Australia? Dolphins, Cardinals, Broncos, all at home. At Seahawks. Feels like that should be three and two. If you're three and two at that point, now I need to go eight and five the rest of the way to get there. I still get to play the Falcons. I get the Raiders. I get the Giants. I get the Cardinals in week 18. Minnesota. Minnesota. Winnable games for sure. I'm probably wrong, but I just when there's this much bad juju before we're not even two weeks away from the season, what else is going to happen? And then everybody's like, Stribling looks great. He's going to be an impact guy right away. When are rookie receivers impact guys? When does that happen? Well, would you say Tat McMillan was a. Yeah, as the year went along, but it took a while and it was really like down the stretch. They need him like in week one to be seven catches 100 yards. Like somebody's going to pay 20 bucks for him in our fantasy. Talk about a fantasy yesterday, the day before, pretty quietly, like top 10 whenever he's really good, you know, so they have like 70% pre-snap motion plays and still to give Shanahan credit has not been solved by these defenses. I might change my pick. Well, you don't want to give all these top heavy wins, but we get to Arizona next and we could just bombs away on them. What do you think, Kev? Has my. Swing my pick here. I like the San Francisco 49ers for 10 wins. I like them over this upcoming season. That schedule has too many built in. Them getting Washington and the Giants. I think I'm going to change my pick. And two Arizonas. You get the 10. I'm going to change. And Shanahan always. I mean, what Shanahan did to the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, that's like a reminder. He can come in and scheme against excellent teams. I really wanted to hold strong here and I just can't. It's okay. 10 wins for them. Well, to be off on the Cardinals, it all makes sense. Right. Can I figure out how to pick them for 10 wins but not make the playoffs? Maybe I'm going to try to do that. Hold on. Can I do that? Oh. I can do that. Okay. I've done 10 wins but missed the playoffs. I love this. I was up to like 2 in the morning the other night, meticulously going. Then you're like, I'm going to change my pick here. What am I doing? Hey, listen. You can do it. It's America. Playoffs. Plus 114 to miss. So I'm going to go over but they're 10 and 7 and they're in a tiebreaker. There was somebody there. The tiebreaker will be with Dallas. Dallas. I was just going to say. There you go. Yeah. So if they lose at Cowboys week 10, that's going to cause them. That's the playoff spot. There we go. Favored in 12 games. Shanahan's beat the hell out of Dallas. Shut up, house. Last year, I lost. The money I lost last year on futures was multiple Niners bets on the under. They went over and then the Chiefs which killed all of us. The Chiefs like that. Talk about Netflix. True crime. That could have been like the Idaho killers. The 2025 Chiefs just murdering everybody who loves division. I will do no division parlays this year. I only made one parlay. To win the division? Oh, really? But you'll do this first to fourth bullshit? But those are like big odds. I'm saying like in the past, you would call me like on August 20th and be like, hey, Simmons. Doing a Cousins. What? I don't like this at all. Hey, Simmons. If we do Bills, Chiefs, Rams, all for the playoffs, plus 112, who fucks us? What is that? That's you committing a burglary. Breathing. But we would do these three teamers to make the playoffs. And the Chiefs were like, well, throw them in. They're going to make it every year for the rest of our lives. And then they went 6-11. We called it the KCD, right? Like a CD. You save for the playoffs. You save for the future. The reason I brought that up, I think Houston and Seattle both to make the playoffs is my favorite one of those. That's like plus 120 on FanDuel, something like that. Just Houston and Seattle will make the playoffs. Put your profit boost token 50% ad on that. I just don't see how that gets fucked up. Like CJ Stroud would really like have to turn into a Deshaun Watson level collapse. You have 30 wins between those teams. Yeah. Yeah. Take a lot. Yeah. I think house is nodding. Well, it's because we talked about this some on our gambling show. The direction the league is going, where defense is becoming much more sticky than year over year. And you just named two of the best defenses in the entire NFL. That's been a recurring theme for me with these futures is defenses and offensive lines. And if you have a really good version of one or both, I'm in. And in this case, Seattle has an above average offensive line. And I think the best defense in the NFC. I think Houston has the best defense. All right. Last one. Arizona Cardinals over three and a half. These are really tough historically when teams are just supposed to be bad division. They're a hundred to one playoffs. They're 20 to one. If you want to bet them not to make the playoffs, it's 71. So don't do that. 70. So I have to borrow $7,000 from you to win a hundred. Yeah. I'll give it to you when you leave. All right. Thank you. Worst record plus two 50. Last year, there were three and 14. Yeah. This year, if you're picking them to go under, you're going to say they go three and 14 again. And my question for you is what if they start out? Oh, and 11. Do you still feel good about the under three and a half? It's great because they're going to start out. Oh, yeah. There's an own five thing on Fandle, a number for that, for them to start on five. And I love that. And now I can't have the bet where it's like, who's going to be the last team that has to win. Yeah. Can you find that for us? Yeah. House, please. That's a good one. I think that's Arizona. Cause they go at chargers Seahawks at night. at Giants, Home Lions, at Rams, Broncos, at Cowboys, at Seattle, Rams, at Chiefs. I have them one in 10. Yeah. Are they going to be getting less than seven points in any game other than the Giants game? No. The Giants will probably be like plus four and a half. They're not favoring any games, right? Zero games. Look, this is a stupid, stupid franchise. Not billionaire seeking out a hooker for $140, stupid. But, I mean, to draft a running back who's already banged up with a draft cap, first-round draft capital, when you don't even have a quarterback. First of all, that running back is going to be wasted for at least two years. They ran him 14 fucking times. Awful. In the first preseason game. And he looked awesome, by the way. No, he's fucking hurt. But you don't have a quarterback. You have to at least have a quarterback sign. Instead, you have Jacoby Brissett, who holds this team hostage for most of the summer. He's like, hey, I'm 1-11 with you guys. You definitely need me back. You see what I could do in garbage time, right? That's why my stats aren't completely miserable. You know what it is with Brissett. I can't believe. Brissett was so bad with us two years ago. But he was pretty good in garbage time last year. That's all it is. It's fine. They had all those games lost before he did it. They were 0-6 against the NFC West. This sounds like a lot for you. You can't lock a three, though. Because you have to give them two wins then. But here's the thing. I went 3-14. I did as well. Yeah. But you're not going to lock that? Killer division. I'll lock it. Yeah. Zero games. Played the toughest schedule. I don't see how any of this works out for Michael Floor. Oh, and by the way, Nate Hackett, private eye, is the OC. Our guy. We should have mentioned that sooner. The love pick was just malpractice. Even though I know everybody likes him. That's fine. They're super deep at running back. Because they also signed Tyler Algier for some reason. Right. So it's like, hey, we have some awesome running back. It's cool. Every other position is below average. Yeah. The coach didn't believe it. What was it? It was the OC who said, yeah, he's a rookie. What did he say about love? Yeah, he's a rookie. And I'm excited to see James Conner and Algier compete. He doesn't even get it. I had them for roster rankings. I had them for six points. And McBride was three of them. Baker, I gave a two. And I gave Marvin Harrison a one. Probably him or Wilson is a one combined, maybe. Right. But I just think they're going to get smoked. I mean, Sharp did these. Oh, pretty colors. Sharp did these graphs for some of the teams. And it's the win total projections. And they're just all at the top for 11 weeks. It's the hardest schedule in the league. Yeah, because they don't have to play them. They can't play themselves. Yeah, that's why this has been a hard, I think, summer to figure out all this stuff. Because sometimes the hardest schedule in the league, you want to a team, like, give it to, like, San Francisco. And then it's like, oh, yeah. Right. But they're going to go 0-6 again because they can't go 0-8. Yeah, and the division. Yeah, I don't know what it is. I mean, the best thing you could hope for is, like, Carson Beck steps up and looks good for next year or something. I'm going to make my annual plea. Maybe I'm going to look at my camera for a second, but then look back and say, go back and forth. You have your own thing. Where is it? My camera's there. Your camera's there. We're just going to get fucked three Sundays this year where there's two games in the afternoon window. One's a blowout, and the other's the Cardinals losing by 38 points in the second quarter. It makes me so mad. They should never, there should not be one situation this year where the Cardinals are one of two games in the late window. Right. We have to at least have three. Protect us. Protect us, NFL. Don't just leave us hanging in the toilet with no toilet paper with the Cardinals. Wow. Just wondering, hey! Can you give me some toilet paper? Right. Like, think about us. Spare a square. Think about the fans. Yeah, spare a square. How about this? I'm going to use your camera, too. No, use your camera. Your camera's right here. Yeah. Goodell, petition the Cardinals to move to, like, Arkansas so they can play the 10 a.m. Pacific time. Oh, yeah. Move to the East Coast. Yeah, so put them with the garbage games there. Can they switch with the AFC team? That we like in the East Coast? Yeah. The Bills. Yeah. You put the Bills on the West Coast. That'd be amazing. Yeah. Pass, 90 seconds on the NFC West. I have the Seattle Seahawks winning the division at 12 wins. Right behind them, the LA Rams. Right behind them, San Francisco at 10 wins. And Arizona to win worst record. That's the correct play for sure. It's between them and Miami. You'll be able to hedge it out at the very end of the season. Because we're going to have the tanking stuff, too. Yeah. There's going to be, like, three quarterbacks everybody's going to want. That's exactly right. So, other than Arizona, good division. We're going to see great games. In between those two teams, those three teams, they always, you know, round-robin it between the three of them. So, you're just not scared of the San Francisco bad juju at all? I mean, 10 wins. That's a step backwards from last season. You have more wins for the NFC North or the NFC West? I think I'm dead even. Although, I might have added a win with San Francisco, which screwed up on my math. Oh, yeah, you changed it, sorry. Come on. Okay. So, our locks. I think that's a fun thing for FanDuel. You could do one division more than the other and West. This is a good place to start. I was trying to get them to do NFC, like, biggest, the parlay, most wins in one division, least wins in the other division. Oh, that's fun. Do you think the NFC West has the most wins? I think I did. I lost that one of 60 sheets here that I can't find. But, yeah, well, I have the three double-digit. Well, because the most wins, I had this somewhere. The most wins. I have 39 for the NFC West and, yeah, So, I had trouble getting to 40 wins in any division in my laying it all out. Last year, the winner was the NFC West with 41. That was the most wins. Right. In 24, the NFC North had 45 wins. Wow. 2023, the AFC North had 43. And then in 2022, the NFC East had 43. So, history tells us we're between 41 and 43, basically. And I couldn't get to 40 anywhere. So, maybe it's this one. Who knows? Okay. To recap, let's recap the locks. Are you only in two locks? I think I had two, right? Yep. You had Arizona. Cardinals under and Giants under. Those were your two. To me, I think if we're going to do a playoff parlay, let's do a not make the playoff parlay. Every year, we do a two-make-the-playoff parlay, and then it seems like two and four. We can work on that for part two. I have Dallas over 9.5, Washington under 7.5, Tampa over 8.5, Atlanta under 7.5, Seattle over 10.5. I'm calling it right now. That's going to be 5-0. Wow. Yeah. Okay. Spandle, put that on your site. My five-team parlay of win total overs and unders. Say it to my camera now. Spandle. Okay. And we think the NFC champion is going to be? The LA Rams. I have the Seattle Seahawks. I will say, I thought long and hard about picking your team, but I felt like you were going to walk out and not do part two. It's so funny. If I had taken Dallas, I think you would have left. I have Dallas over. You motherfucker. How can you do this to me? Dallas is a three-seed over Seattle as my first-round pick, and I have the Rams beating the Packers in the NFC championship. Hmm. The only thing we know for sure is Tampa will be the four-seed. Ready to play either Seattle or the Rams. Tampa already is getting five points in the wild-card game, even though they haven't played yet. That's the only line they have, the playoff line there. House, what was your favorite lock? The Atlanta. I'm so super out on it. Atlanta. Okay. That's it for part one, which we were happy to do live here on Netflix. On Sunday, we're going to have part two, which is going to be the AFC. Same format, same strategy. We're going to take a break. Maybe get some drinks. Thanks to Gahal. Thanks to Eduardo. Thanks to Fandul. Thanks to everybody behind the scenes at The Ringer. Thanks to Don Johnson, still smoking the same cigarette. Thanks to Farrah. And I will see you for the AFC campaign. 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