The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

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The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by the ringer podcast network, where you can find a new episode of the rewatchables coming tomorrow, Monday. We're going to put up a little earlier tomorrow, probably, um, early mid afternoon ET. Um, it's a good movie. You've heard of it. That's all I'm going to say. We didn't announce the movie this week. Sometimes you don't have to, um, so that's coming. If you missed the ringer fantasy football shows live draft that we did on Friday, it was one of the funniest three hour runs that we've had at the ringer. Um, there's people screaming at each other. There was people ganging up on each other. Um, Sal made about 25 off the cuff jokes. Um, people were eating as they were trying to draft. Um, people were ripping stickers off the little sticker thing, ripping the, it was just, everything was in play. Bad coordination. Temper tantrums, you name it. And, uh, it all peaked when all of us colluded to completely screw over Danny Heifetz who thought he was going to get cute near the end and get a good QB late. And then we just took all the QBs and now his QBs, I think are Bryce young cam ward and somebody Michael Penix jr. Those are his three QBs for the ringer fantasy football draft. So it was amazing. It was about as fun as I've ever had during a fantasy draft. Uh, great job by everybody. Great job by the, uh, ringer fantasy. the guys as well. So that happened. I was going to do a big topper this, uh, for this episode about the, uh, Red Sox Yankee series, but it basically came down to two plays because they split the double header yesterday. The Red Sox lose one, nothing on Friday because Raffaella doesn't listen. Third base coach tags. Anyway, thanks. Bellinger can't throw them out, throws them out. Red Sox lose one, nothing, but that was a great old school Yankee stadium, Red Sox, Yankees, uh, pennant race game. I love that one. Didn't like the one as much today where it felt like it was going to be another one, nothing to one type game. And, uh, Raffaella, um, ends up making this great catch with a guy on first base and somehow the first base umpire, who is just atrocious all weekend, just really atrocious, um, calls, calls it as a bounce catch. So then there's not enough on the instant replay to overrule it. Cause Raphael is basically bending his glove. Over and, uh, and that opened the flood gates and the Yankees won this series three to one. And now the Red Sox are in a lot of trouble for the playoffs because they really need to get to the four seed. I've loved this Red Sox season. A little weird today. They brought in Roman Anthony and, um, Trevor story from Worcester and sent down Anthony Sigler and Mickey gas, Mickey Gasper, who is the hottest left-handed hitter of on the team and the hottest hitter maybe in the league. Um, and sent him. He comes back in 10 days, but I hope it didn't mess with the juju. Um, very fun Red Sox season regardless, but always hate losing the Yankees can only take solace in the fact that the Yankees have won one world series in the last 26 years. I looked it up 2009 Obama's first term year one of Obama's first term last time they won 17 years ago. So congrats on your win in August. We'll see you in the playoffs guys. Um, football cousin Sal and I did, uh, see NFC, um, overrunners. We taped them all at once. We ran the NFC on this feed on Thursday. We were about to run the AFC feed. So if you notice where we're in the exact same clothes and Joe house is still going to be there as a, as our third person. And I had five locks that I loved for the NFC. And I think I have two for this one. You're about to listen to for the AFC. I like the NFC more, but FanDuel is still giving everyone five 50% PBTs that you can put basically anything up until the end of August. And so if you like any of the locks you're about to hit, or if you liked anything from the last podcast, like Atlanta under seven and a half or Tampa over eight and a half, I think we had five that I really liked, um, Dallas over, uh, Seattle over. And then what was the other under I had Washington under, um, if you like any of those, throw those into the little FanDuel thing, because that was very nice of them to do that for us. Uh, all right. Without further ado, the AFC over, Sanders for wind totals with me and the cause is next. We're gonna take a break and then bring in project. This episode is brought to you by one of my best friends in life, NFL Sunday ticket, man. I missed it. Kickoff's coming. Yeah. We're getting close. We're within a month with NFL Sunday, taking YouTube TV. You get every game, every Sunday, all in one place and it's magnificent. And there's no other way to follow the NFL season. I'm so mad. I didn't get YouTube TV until a couple of years ago because, um, it's the best new users. That might include you can get NFL Sunday ticket for eight payments of just $30 a month. You heard me correctly. New users pay $240 or eight, eight non-cancelable payments of $30 a month. First charged at purchase availability varies with NFL Sunday ticket for out of market games and YouTube TV for local national games, YouTube TV required terms, restrictions, and embargoes apply commercially used excluded, no refunds. The American football conference. Curious. Why do we do this? Not on Netflix. This is your conference. We did mine, uh, the national football conference, the American football conference, more patriotic. Oh, I see. Okay. National sounds a little more sinister. The national football conference took over. Um, okay. AFC old guard, new guard, old guard, my homes, Josh Allen, Lamar burrow. They're kind of here. Hmm. New guard, Drake, May Herbert, Bo Nix and good Trevor Lawrence, who we've only known for, for three months. Um, old guard coaches, Andy Reed, Harbaugh, Tomlin McDermott. Two of them are gone. Plus Belichick. He's gone to new guard coaches, Vrabel, even though he's a little older to Miko Ryan's and, uh, Cohen and maybe Kubiak too. Um, plus you have Peyton and Jim, Jim Harbaugh somewhere in there. Do you feel like this is like a transition year or this is a, the old guard reclaims everything here. Interesting. Um, I was thinking about it in terms of quarterbacks and who we knock out of our top four and it's been the top four for a half a decade. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Um, I'm not ready to move on from the old guard. So your old guard, I'm thinking my homes specifically. And that, that's sort of the part of the bracket. All right. I am. Where are you? I still believe in a, I'm like a half and half, like half from the old guard. I think especially Lamar, this year, if he's just not going to run in the same way anymore. Yeah. Burrow is an all time prove a year where he's had three good ones and three. And, um, but we'll see what happens. I got a question from Joe from Charlotte. How many quarterbacks would you put on Marino watch by my count? Maybe three burrow for early success. Durability probably rules them out. Lamar in season dominance, like a playoff production. And then Josh Allen. So I guess Marino watch is like the pressure of, Oh shit, I might not actually win a Superbowl in my entire career. I guess it'd be Marino watch. I kind of like that. What about your guy? My guy's like 23. Yeah. But he made it in the second year. Well, he repeated the Marino thing. Yeah. Do you feel like Josh Allen is officially on Marino watch? I like the premise of this. I feel like we've gone too far with the Josh Allen hatred. I really do. Not for me. I think he's the best quarterback in the league. Well, you, you tried to say, he's the best regular season quarterback. I got checkmated. It got, but it, but it's true. It's like, and he's put a big points in playoff games too. Yeah. Who has put up big points, whoever, whatever team he's playing in Josh Allen playoff games, the defense has allowed 32 points per game. And the visual is of Josh Allen failing in the last drive or whatever it is, which sucks because that's how you're going to end your season. But this guy is as consistent as it gets. And we'll get to the bills in a second. Shades of going Collinsworth there for a second. We got it. I just can't believe, I just can't believe how good Josh Allen is. I can't believe it. How so you pro or anti Josh Allen superstar. Oh, super pro. I love Josh Allen. I like him too. I don't like this situation. He's in this season. and we're going to do the AFCs first. Buffalo, 10.5 is the over-under. Minus 1.35 for the division. The Patriots were 14-3 last year, somehow not the favorites. Super Bowl, 10-1 for the Bills. Minus 3.40 playoffs, 5-1, one seed. 13-plus wins, you go plus 2.50. Under 8.5 is plus 3.20. Where are you standing on this one? Do you believe Joe Brady? My what-if for this one. We're doing what-ifs for every team. So, losing McDermott for Joe Brady, what if it makes an already super shaky defense much worse? Interesting. Because McDermott was allegedly a defensive coach. They were not good defensively last year. It might screw things up. I don't know if it could be much worse. I don't know as far as clutch situations go. But my money's always on them to outscore the other team. Like, I just don't. Like, when we do these over-unders, first of all, the AFC used to be a breeze. We used to just take your Patriots to win it. Yep. And then for you. For years, we took the Bills. Take somebody to win nine games. And now we have to think about it, and it sucks. Yeah. But you have to think in terms of consistency, right? And this guy hasn't missed a game since 2018. They have six straight seasons with 11-plus wins. So, why am I going to take two wins away from them? And it's all because he, like, pulls off, like, David Blaine-type magic tricks in the red zone. Like, they're phenomenal down low. They will always score. So. So, you'd have them in the 10-win club, which I talked about in part. Part one. Yeah. Where it's just, like, McVay, 10 wins. I think Ben Johnson is now a 10-win club guy. Right. So, Alan, you would say. I really have tried to zag against it last year, too. I thought long and hard about how to do it this year. If you're ever going to do it, this is the year. Right? New coach. We have no idea if he's good. The best thing you could say about them is they got DJ Moore, who, as we talked about in part one, all the Bears fans were ready to drive to the airport. Offensive line is good. Although McGovern's already hurt. I don't know. They overhauled a really crappy D, but I'm not. It's kind of like they painted a crappy house a different crappy color. And they're like, look, I painted the house. Bradley Chubb's a decent pickup. I know they got the second rounder. He wasn't good last year, though. Clemson kid, actually. TJ Parker. So they're helping good things with that. They'll have decent pass rush with Rousseau and Chubb. But I don't know. They're favored in 13 games. The Pats are favored in 10. I gave them 11 wins. They won 12 last year. I don't think one player does more work for the over-unders for a team than him year after year. Than Allen. If you just pick anyone who's a slightly above average quarterback. Let's put Bo Nix on the Bills. Are they a six-win team? So if you did wins above replacement for football quarterbacks? We have it. We have it with the spreads. He has the highest if you replace him with the backup. I had their roster. I had 21 points, which puts them fringe playoff territory. I only had two guys that got points on defense. So even though they and one of them is Benford, who I don't even. Right. Not even positive. Their big strengths are Allen, James Cook, who was incredible last year. And then the offensive line. Yeah. I would say they have below average receivers top to bottom. Right. Even the Patriots have better receivers than them now. They're playing the AFC West and the NFC North, which is rough. Hmm. Their first five. Five games are reprehensibly hard at Houston to start Detroit on Thursday night. So four days later, after Houston kicks the shit out of them, chargers week three, Pat's week four at home and then at the Rams Monday night football week five. So what, what does that record have to be for you coming out of that? Out of five Texans, Lions, chargers, Pats, Rams. Three and two. It feels like three and three and then it gets a little easier. But you know, it's weird with this 11 plus win teams. Like what was it? Two years ago, it was a two or three years ago where they had to win their last six to make the playoffs. Yeah. Like they always just seem to find the way it's ridiculous how they, they do it. And, uh, yeah, I don't know. I, the schedule, they, they almost always have a first place schedule. It's weird about that. I want to make fun of the Pat schedule last year. Look at the extra games. I think I would rather have the Patriots extra games, even with the first place schedule at Houston, at Rams, Baltimore, or at Seattle, at Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, I'd rather have the Pats games. Yeah. It's one of the big things people are discrediting the Pats with was how easy the schedule was last year. Yeah. It's not that hard this year either. Right. It's like there, there's some people have it. It's really tough to rank the schedule before the season when we haven't seen everybody, but some people think it's like a top five easy schedule again. Yeah. Um, they have five really hard word games. They only play three games indoors. The bills. I was like, when they're indoors. Um, but the quarterbacks they go against Drake made twice golf, Herbert Stafford, Lamar, Mahomes, Jordan, love Caleb and Nick's pretty tough. The best thing that I have for them, a schedule standpoint is the plus 14 net rest, which is second this year, which I'm still house. You believe in the net rest. You let, you've always enjoyed it. Yeah, no, I think it matters for sure. Yeah. I wonder if we're overthinking some of this stuff now with net rest and regression and it's like all the metrics. I put net rest like third of four. I know that he's supposed to be at the top, but turnover differential, that's way more important to me. Like the plus minus on that. Like, I don't know. You know what I like? You know what my advanced stats are? Hmm. Can you run the ball? Can you stop the run? Can you throw the ball? Can you stop the other team from throwing the ball? And it's really those four things. Really? I'm not convinced the bills move the chains, stop a team from running the ball or throwing the ball. Yeah. And the schedule is harder. You're going under. I am. I'm going, I'm a slight under, I'm 10. I, it's not a lock. I don't love it. Um, but I think their schedule is awful and they really can't afford an injury to Alan or cook. No doubt. And I, I have real questions about DJ more, you know, cause people are like DJ more. It's why, why is everybody so anxious to get rid of DJ more? So two teams now that have been delighted to move off him. He doesn't stretch the field for sure. And that was the problem with the bills. It didn't have like a burner, right. To, to get like that. They're, they're very low percentage. The other thing to worry about with the bills is we talked about these quarterbacks who just stopped running when they turned 28. He turned 30. I think I just saw in may. What if that stops? Like your dad too. That's it. Yeah. Yeah. Dad turning 30. There's some not running anymore signs that the counter would be. He's superhuman. And unlike Jake may, where I'm terrified, he's going to get hurt. Right. Alan, you're terrified. The other guy's going to get hurt. I'm a slight under, I don't love it. I wouldn't bet it. Um, but I think he has to be in the 10 win club. I have 11 new England Patriots. 10 and a half is the over under division plus one 35 stupefying to me that they have the same, that the Buffalo is just much better for a division odd bet than the paths. I don't get it. Superbowl 17 to one number, number one, CD eight to one 12 plus ones plus two 20. And if you want to short them under seven, if it's post three 80, my, what if talked about it on Tuesday, what if AJ Brown is a 2007 Moss like super boost for this team? I, we're not asking for five awesome seasons for him. Just give us one. Fuck you season. It seems like he wants to do it. There's a world where, yeah, where maybe throws for 41 touchdowns and 13 go to AJ Brown. And what was his over under? I mean, if you get the escalator on the 12 plus, it's ridiculous odds, but their deep threat last year was. Booty who I really liked. And I thought he used to made a smart deal with them. We traded him for a seventh round pick and a backup safety. That was our deep threat last year. Yeah. Diggs was the other guy who might get open. He played 35, 40 plays a game. Right. And then I wouldn't trust one other guy in the team. So I wanted to come on here and be like, this is it. The ultimate regression team. They played Alcorn state 14 times last year. They're going to go three and 14. And I can't do it. Cause I think they could arguably be better on paper, at least than they were last year. They're definitely better talent wise. But with a record with fewer wins, like with four fewer wins, I think that's a definite possibility. Well, they went 14 and three. So if they have three less wins, they're still 11 and six and hitting this over. A couple of things just to, I don't think get mentioned enough when everyone talks about the schedule, they still have Drake man, a rookie deal, which is the biggest advantage you can have in football right now, if they're not going to use the money to then give you Christian Gonzalez a top five cornerback, you know, for some reason, the low volume crafts history of, uh, I don't want to say cheapness. So I'll just say cheapness. Yeah. Um, his history of cheapness, uh, pretty long legacy of trying to cut corners here. And they always seem to have 50, 60 million of open money and money that they can push, but they never actually seem to spend it. These owners are hurting. You don't understand. Some of them are spending only $140 on it. You know, my goodness. Like go sell 5% of the team for $1 billion, right? The team's probably worth 10. Right. Um, but so the Gonzalez thing makes me nervous, but they have Drake man, a rookie deal. They are one of only eight teams that have the same head coach OC and DC from last year. Right. So they actually have continuity. Um, my fears are cause they, they, the O-line is going to be better. Will Campbell's healthy. Now we've got the kid from Utah, right? Yep. They have a little depth. They brought in Bayard from the bears. for a little safety veteran guy in the back he's good The reasons to short them, you mentioned the regression, the Vrabel scandal, what happened, is that going to have any sort of carryover to how he performs this season? I have no idea. And then the Gonzalez contract makes me nervous. How about this? I have two words for you. Maybe you're not familiar with these. Cover six. Have you heard about cover six? What's cover six? Cover six is a defense that all three playoff teams last year doubled up. Some of them play like 30%. They doubled it up to 60% against Drake, maybe. And it was effective. It's essentially taking away, it's doing a cover two and then four on the other side of the field. And under, oh, read about cover six because you could be in trouble. Those three playoff teams did it against. Oh, they did that thing. They're rushing three or four, but dropping everyone back. And they both did it in their second regular season game against them. I don't know why every team doesn't do this. I didn't know it was called cover six. I just knew it was called the defense that works against Drake Bay and last year's Patriots. Yeah. Well, I wonder if anyone else would pick up on that. Well, you know what's going to happen this year. A.J. Brown will just run down the field and get open and then he'll throw it to them. He's going to say goodbye to the six. And they got Dobbs too. I mean, A.J. Brown and Dobbs versus what they had last year. It's fucking bonkers. It's a night and day compared to the receiver. They also drafted this tight end in the either second or third round, Eli Raritan. Yeah. Who's this like just beast blocker. And they have just more options than they did last year with lineups and stuff. Notre Dame, yeah, the big guy. I have them at 27 points in my roster rankings. And they play the following shit QBs. Rogers, Cousins, Murray, Gino twice, Willis twice. So you figure with Buffalo in the past, that's four wins against the Jets and softens. It's just that was the hard part with the bills. Anyway, I'm going over 11 wins for the Patriots. Not a lot, though. Over 10 and a half. Over 10 and a half wins. Yeah, 11. I'm going under 10 and a half. I'm going under 10 and a half to 10. I think the Bills have 11. The Patriots have 10. And I am not acknowledging. I flipped that. I have the Pats at 11 and the Bills at 10. I'm not acknowledging their Super Bowl appearance. I'm not doing it. That's fine. I mean, you and Hanch. Did you make money from the Seahawks at least? I did. That I'll acknowledge. Okay. But I mean, you guys tore it. He made it in the third last time. And Dak Prescott is like, you didn't make it to the Super Bowl. I likened it to going to Six Flags and waiting in line for two hours, getting to the very top. And then you're on the whatever free fall and you see the drop and you shit your pants and you come back down to the bottom. You can only play who's in front of you. I don't ever remember people doing this with other football teams. But he got scared. He got very, very scared in the Super Bowl. I don't think he was healthy. I know. You keep saying that. I think if they lose to the Chargers in round one. In round one? Yeah, last year. Oh, last year. The most recently completed. They go 14-3. They lose to the Chargers. Everybody say, oh, they're young. Oh, they added. Oh, look out for this team. Right. But the further they went, it actually makes people not like them as much for this year. Yeah. Wow. I feel the same way about them as I did with the Bears. I don't think they were a Super Bowl team last year. I don't think the Bears were a 12-win team or whatever they ended up last year. But I think this year was supposed to be the year for both of the teams. And especially when you have Caleb and May in these rookie deals. And, you know, it's the biggest advantage you can have. So I hope they take advantage of it. I mean, we're completely going to discount. We're going to get to the Texans later. But two pitiful quarterback performances in the playoffs. I'm not discounting it. I'm really 95% sure he was hurt. And that's where I've landed. I watched him all year and he didn't look remotely. You said today he wasn't hurt. I don't know if you saw. You said in an interview. It was like, don't let anyone try to make excuses for me. I was awful. I wasn't hurt. I'm going to make excuses. Also, our left tackle was playing on one leg. Yeah. That's bad. New York Jets. Over five and a half. Division 18 to one. Playoffs seven to one. Ten plus wins. Eight to one. Eight to one. Last year, they're three and 14. They're six to one. Have the worst record this year. So they made two straight conference finals in 2009 and 2010. Yeah. Way back when with Rex Ryan. I mean, two straight. I think there's been in the last 30 years, 120 teams that could have potentially gone back to back dating back to 96. And I think it's either 29 or 30 have ever done it. And half of those teams are like when the Patriots did it for eight years in a row. Right. And the Chiefs did it for seven years in a row. The Jets did this two years in a row. They were in the final four. And then they have not made the playoffs since that. Well, they've not even, not even a wild card. Surely they've come close. It's a 14 team playoffs every year in a 32 team league. It's basically 45% chance. Yeah. Never did it on New York. Small market. How are they supposed to? By what if for you? What if the Jets aren't dumb enough to tank this season? What if they're just competitive enough that they go seven and 10? Yeah. And now get knocked out of the top five and win a couple of games, get their fans excited. And then all of a sudden the merry-go-round stops and there's four quarterbacks available. They get none of them. Do you think keeping Aaron Glenn means they're not, it's fine. They're okay with tanking. Like to me, it's like, I cannot believe that guy is back. And look, I was rooting for him and I thought he took a lot of shit for celebrating on the sideline when they went to overtime against Tampa only to lose. But yeah, this is a defensive specialist that they brought in and they did not have one interception over 17 games. And it seemed like they quit as the last month of the season. That was one of how many teams just felt like that last month. Like they were just like, I'm ready to go home. You can't have the defense quit on you. If you're Aaron Glenn, it's like nine, that 92 years. Yeah. No one's had no intercept. He's a specialist and they brought him back. It's like you hiring a painter and the guy comes out the first day and paint your dog and the hedges and you're like, all right, we'll just come back tomorrow. You'll hit some walls. It'll be fine. I don't understand. Well, apparently he had 22 assistants on last year's staff and replaced 12 of them, including the OC in the DC hired Joe houses. Guy, Frank rank. That's not my guy. Your guy. You said he was the best. He was the best coach in a conference three years ago and never said he 100% said it. I do. And he definitely said it. We joked about it. And then text right. And he got fired in like week 11 in this first season. Not house Frank. Right. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. That has some, I survived the good news for the jets. They loaded up in the draft pre first round picks the only team. Right. And they had a, the 50th pick. Yeah. So they had four of the top 50. The bad news is the reason they had four of the top 50. And two of those three first rounders is because they traded their two best players on defense for the first rounders got to factor that in. Um, but they are, they're going to be better in their offensive lines. Going to be better. It might actually be like a top 12 offensive line. Maybe. Yeah. So I have them as a slide over. Yeah. You have six wins. Yeah. Right now I have them at seven and 10 just because I had trouble finding AFC wins anywhere. I had six and 11. Um, the schedule's terrible. kind to them for their first eight or against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, and Raiders. So they could be four and four at the halfway point. That could be the exciting story. Well, it's funny. Titans is week one. Yeah. And then they go Packers, at Lions, at Bears. It's the Robert Saligan. And if the Titans were good, you'd be like, oh, that could be 0-4. And now what do you do? Do you fire on Glenn? Do you say, fuck it, now let's go for the number one pick? But all the buzz on the Titans has been so bad in the preseason. And I actually think they'll probably beat the Titans. We're going to be overwhelmed in a stupid way by the winner of that Titans-Jets game, I think. Well, we talked about this. Let's not let ourselves do that. We talked about this, tried to remember it. Midway through the year, we were like, let's remember this for next year, the dumbest week one result. And last year was the Raiders beating the Patriots, which just led to all these different dumb outcomes in our heads that then the opposite happened. That Titans-Jets game is a candidate. That's true. What could be the dumbest result? I looked through them. But, you know, if you look at the rest of the schedule, there are a lot of games where they should win if they score like 21 or 22 points. I just know with Geno, so Geno went from Seattle, good, to the Raiders, just pathetic. Jets offensive line is probably somewhere in between there. And probably enough to win six games. Geno was an outright atrocity last year, but they couldn't block for him and he was running for his life. So he's either washed up or the Raiders thing was really bad. They play Malik Wilson. He lost twice. Cleveland, Cam Ward, Cousins, Brissette, Kyler. Yeah. Maybe he can win six, seven of those. I have them at seven and ten. I don't feel great about it. We both have the Jets over. My God. I know. I just think it's too low. I mean, what were they last year? They're three and 14, but they traded their two best guys midway through the season. Yeah. And also had, you know, we were trying not to talk about regression too much, but that was one of the, you know, you know, one of the craziest things ever. Not having an interception. Okay. Miami Dolphins is the last one. They have a new coach. Let's pour one out for DJ Mikey Mack. That's it. He's done spinning the discs in Miami. The clubs are quiet today. He landed on his feet. Yeah. He's clubbing it out here. Clubbing it out in San Diego. Miami was seven and ten last year. They're over under is three and a half. I had to double check that. I'm like, Oh yeah, you're right. Seven and 15 and one to make the playoffs. Yeah. Worst record there. Plus two 20. good if you want to zag and bet on them to go 8-9 it's 7 plus 700 I'm going to list their highest played highest paid players for you this year have you seen this graphic they're somewhere else yeah Tua 55.4 million not on the team Tyreek 28.2 not on the team Waddle 23.2 doesn't play for them Jalen Ramsey 20.9 not on the team Fitzpatrick 13 nope Zach Seeler 11.4 on the team we got one welcome Bradley Chubb 11 nope and Armstead 10.7 so they're 8 most expensive guys that they're still paying you said Waddle too Waddle yeah 7 of the 8 are not on the team they're paying 7 of those guys not to play for them 6 players 162 million dollars the guys are not playing Malik Willett they're paying Malik something I just I just gave you 8 guys Malik is what was he 20 but they but they can spread it out oh yeah yeah oh man so the only case for them is if you feel like they actually had the worst quarterback situation on one of the top 3 Cleveland Minnesota Miami and Willis will actually be pretty good they're bringing in halfway for the defense and then could there be some sort of could they just be this funky run team that 5 times a year they just rush for 280 yards on somebody that has a bad front 7 and sneak to 5 wins I don't think they want to it was probably they don't they did the bare minimum they extended Devon A. Chan right superstar player who they could trade in October and they signed Malik Willis just to have someone back there Malik Willis who did he walk out on practice yesterday is that a story like you know and he takes sacks this guy so that was a story he got so frustrated with the offense that he left their wide receivers I was just gonna hit this go ahead well the initial list of who their wide receivers were two of those guys I don't think are the wide receivers anymore who is it it's Chris Bell yes he is out yeah well who are the receivers Malik Washington Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell I think two of those guys have been nudged out I don't even I think they're hold on I checked the depth chart let me see well regardless it's Jalen Tolbert Malik Washington Caleb Douglas Texas Tech okay yeah Tutu's fourth Chris Bell's yeah yeah it's it's garbage it's it's rough I don't know you know again you don't want to give anyone two wins but very surprised if this team had more than three offensive line is actually weirdly competent I wouldn't say it's great but it's solid yeah secondary is all time like they traded Wado basically for that Chris Johnson the cornerback and if he's not good I don't even know who's covering receivers for them it's and it's not like the pass rush is gonna be better you heard the Jets futility about 2009 time 25 years since the Dolphins won a playoff game and on the season ticket this year it actually says 20 across it says 26 like don't even expect anything this year that's how it is house loves Bobby Sloak though a lot of chop Robinson that they have to push that this is a breakout year for chop yeah Bobby Sloak here's the other weird thing about them and this is why I think there's a real case for the under they play a lot of good quarterbacks they have the Drake May Josh Allen combo four times Purdy Mahomes Burrow Goff Caleb Love and Herbert this is with the worst secondary in the league oh my god so this is gonna be one of those situations where it's like oh my QB's playing the Dolphins this weekend like right six of the first nine against playoff with all that said I'm ready to be talked into going over and saying they're gonna go four and 13 now I want to talk it out oh I thought we just did three or four their favorite in one game against the Jets could they do like a funky running thing three times we get yes and then and it's still an under three total three and 14 is under three and a half wins I think it's a battle to the grave with the Cardinals for that first pick I think you're right I think if you're gonna go over with the Jets you're not allowed to also go over with the Dolphins right is a good way to think about this 13 draft picks though so maybe in a couple of years it'll figure out at Raiders at Niners home Chiefs at Vikings home Bengals basically the Raiders is a must-win game if you're going over I think if they lose that game it's it's a wrap you're not getting the over on that house give us your AFC's thoughts so I'm in lockstep with the cousin Sal the Buffalo Bills haven't lost well I'll say it the other way around have won at least 11 games since 2018 so if Josh Allen's the quarterback and he plays then the Buffalo Bills are gonna win 11 games I really am intrigued by this New England situation because I think that they're a 10 or 11 win team but I'm gonna sit tight I want them to start the season off 1 and 3 they are at Seattle they're home against Pittsburgh they're at Jacksonville they're at Buffalo if the Patriots come out 1 and 3 I am the win totals that will be available at that point of the season 4 weeks in market calendar right now get in there and jump on Patriots 10 wins at that point you can see you can't he can't throw he can't rear back that's what we're gonna hear 1 and 3 that feels like 2 and 2 okay I don't disagree I'm rooting for 1 and 3 the greatest thing about that if you had the Pats over if they somehow won the Seattle game you'd be like oh my god right that was the guaranteed loss of all of these that your best price is gonna come from them being a little bit you know where people have questions so you have Buffalo for the division too I do yeah Jets over Jets over yeah the Jets have 8 new starters on defense the Jets went out and got Mika Fitzpatrick and David Onyata and all these guys crazy I kind of liked what they did yeah there's I won't name names but there's a couple Jets fans in my life not fantasy like we're the optimistic about this Jets team I think it's kind of hit the you know if we can just get Gino back to the Gino from two years ago I do like the tight end I think he's gonna be good yeah Oregon kid yeah but we'll see all right so NFC I'm sorry AFC no locks for us in this nah you have Buffalo New England I have New England Buffalo and if you do either of those with Jets three Miami four I mean the higher money thing would be to do the Pats go Pats Bills Jets Miami is probably at least like five to one yeah it's probably five to one six to one range we'll do this next week but Jets third place I think is even odds really yeah isn't that good that's pretty good you have to root from just enough all right that's it for the AFC coming back with the AFC North after this the Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel where the football season begins every team is undefeated that's right even the Jets every fan believes this could be the year that the team makes the playoffs maybe even lifts the trophy FanDuel they're right in there with it you can bet on all of it you can use your NFL futures reward stack for an even bigger payout FanDuel giving everyone five 50% PBTs that's right five can only be used from Thursday 827 until end of day Monday 831 so unlock and use them before it's too late take some advice from me and the cuz check out our favorite futures picks get your bets in today on FanDuel visit FanDuel.com slash BS to get started 21 plus select states are 18 plus DC Kentucky Wyoming 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FanDuel.com game problem call 1-800 gamble or call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut AFC North Baltimore Ravens they're over under us 10 and a half some juice on the over division plus 105 Super Bowl 11 to 1 playoffs minus 300 number one seed plus 410 12 plus wins plus 125 under 9 and F wins plus 200 they were 8 and 9 last year my question for you what if Jesse Minter is a massive upgrade over zombie John Harbaugh what do we do then oh that's a good one zombie John zombie John he's just like I'm still coaching the New York Giants yeah zombie John zombie John gave that New York Giants speech oh man you play for the New York Giants why did they clip that out I don't know they put that on their social media our wives have friends that they'll send the Instagram photo they're thinking about posting to make sure that they look okay and then you have to get the approval it should be that way for the football teams with these social clips there should have been somebody in the Giants like no we're not posting that it looks like an idiot you gave a pep talk to the ringer staff and like everyone was just like looking at their phone you would fire the social media person this is the ringer we work for the ringer it was like a Will Ferrell speech very weird I drive Don Stratus you play for the Giants and now he's gone I have thoughts on this but I'll throw it to you and the Ravens what if Jesse Minter is good yeah that would help right so and they have like a 29 year old offensive coordinator so it all it all helps they're Declan Doyle Declan Doyle great name that sounds like a showtime show. Yeah. It's like new, new from Showtime. Declan Doyle. Did you, uh, he's a cop on the edge. Yeah. Declan Doyle. Get that badge. They signed Trey Hendrickson. You say there's no karma in football, but that Max Crosby, how they took advantage of the, uh, disabled Raiders and the Ravens do that shit every year. Yeah. This year it hurt. They got Trey Hendrickson, but maybe the karma is they lose Tyler Lindenbaum, uh, to free agency. And now they have a center out. Yeah. That's tough. Third stringer. Yeah. You always talk about it. Right. So, um, the funniest move they did was extending. And I know you like this, the Zay flowers and they gave him just a ton of money. And like, to me, uh, I think the litmus test is they're treating this guy like a superstar, but if NBC was like promoting next week's game, like Baltimore against, you know, the chargers, it would be Herbert. And if they put Zay flowers up, would you chuckle? If you chuckle, then it's a terrible sign and giving up all this money. I think we're at that chuckle point. So I don't know. It's like an NBA with the last guy introduced in the starting lineup. So if I'm like, Ooh, yikes, there's a reason who's going to be the last guy for the whiz this year house, Trey, Trey, Anthony Davis, AJ DeBensa. What are you talking about? He's going to be the last guy over Trey young. He's the most exciting players. The number one draft pick. I don't know what that's happening. Some of you guys, um, Lamar since his calf injury, what was it? Right. When he 25 yards per game rushing. And that's big. And we talk about these guys all going from 28 to 29 years old, whatever that really shocking. When you look at the pro reference pro football reference, the career and watching the attempts in the yard. Right. And I hate to harp on it, but it's big. I mean, on third and four, that was really a lot of times they're only outlet like to continue to drive. So trenches were bad. 26, and pass blocking 28th and sacks on the other side. Offensive line is the thing that probably worries me the most. Yeah. I don't think it's going to be bad, but I don't think it's going to be good either. They just need to be mediocre. Two things that jump out, maybe top three easiest schedule in the league. First seven early. Yeah. First seven. It's like, how are you not six and one after these first seven, I talked to Mallory last night. Cause for help for the FC north at Colt saints at Cowboys Titans at five, Falcons at Browns Bengals Cowboys is in Rio, but yeah, should be five and two minimum. Yeah. Those are some of the worst teams in the league. And they were two and five to start last year. Right. So good QBs they play, which is another thing I love to look at. This was a huge for the pats last year. Cause they played no good QBs burrow twice Dak, Josh Allen, Lawrence Herbert. That's it. Basically seven out of the 17 games. I'm all in. I'm Jesse Minter. And my favorite thing to do. I talked about this in the part one is the coach that can come in and do Mike Vrabel, especially if they're following the shitty coach, Mike Vrabel following Mayo or Dan Quinn following who is the crappy guy, um, Ron Rivera, right? Yeah. Riverboat Ron. And it's just so easy. It's like, oh, that that's worth six wins. We didn't really have that situation this year with the new coach hires. But I think the two new coach hires that were the significant ones, this is one of them because it's like, oh, John Harbaugh was good. He won all those games. I actually think he's going to be a massive upgrade. I thought he was unbelievable with the chargers last year. That was like one of the best coordinator coaching jobs. Anyone did I, their defense was kind of old. They had injuries and it just didn't seem to matter. They were flying around. And I was one over, as you know, I overreacted to social media videos in August and quotes from teammates about players on their team that are young players or rookies. That video of him singing Eminem as the whole locker room is going nuts. Yeah. I was like, I've seen enough. The, the jury's in, um, should have tried that with the giants. You have the Harbaugh thing. I'm one where he's doing will Farrell. And then you have Jesse mentor singing for his team and they're all fucking losing their minds. 12 and five. I'm way over, way over. So is this a lock? This is a lock. Wow. Can I say this is I'm jealous of this take now. If I could change it, take it right now. Locked into 10 friends. No, no, not after this. So you're going under, I'm going 10. Well, it's, it's a good year. It's 10. It's the playoffs. I have to. And then 12 plus wins. There's been some juice on the Ravens, but 12 plus wins is plus 1 25. Hmm. I mean, AFC South and NFC South that are the divisions, the quarterbacks I mentioned, and I'm jealous. And honestly, if you read between the lines, you talk to like Mallory and I were talking about it last night, the Ravens fans was that Harbaugh was driving them to the airport status for everybody. It seems like it was the case for Lamar too. There's a little fuck you with Lamar. I think this season, really like, oh, you're counting me out. Oh, you think this was a big loss that we lost this fucking clown Harbaugh. Not saying he said this, but I think he's going to have a little, little ump to him. Derek Henry. Oh, you're counting me out. You think I'm old. Do you think I can't do this again? It's just, the fucking, this is a chip on the shoulder team. Interesting. Jesse Minner proving that he belongs with the big boys. We have a new coach every year that crushes it. Just it's a lock. I think he's the coach. All right. I mean, honestly, the counting us out, that's the only thing you would go against. Like what if they're running game is non-existent with Lamar getting older and choosing not to run Derek Henry. Finally, the touch is carrying, uh, catching up with him. But other than that, you're probably right. Week five at Atlanta and they're shitty defense. Yeah. Collinsworth. I think they're going to have to hose them down. That's an NBC game. Yeah. Oh, my God. The Lamar, we, the, anyone who thinks Lamar isn't back, come on, come on. I mean, are the blank could assign this guy blank in the luxury box. Just beating himself up. When that game 52 to 10, then next week lose to the Browns and Cleveland. Yeah. Cause that happens every year. Uh, I'm really hard, aggressive over Ravens. Seven to 12 is tough since he Buffalo Jacksonville chargers. Yep. Panthers Texans. So five playoff teams in a row. Plus since it since he, the sexy team du jour in the AFC east, sorry to say du jour and make you hungry house. I was here. He thinks soup. He thinks of the specials. Yes. What special house. Oh, when you're, when the waiter comes over, what's the number one thing where you're like, oh, you mean like it's not on the menu. Here's what tonight's special is when he's talking about steaks, fish, we've covered this territory because it is special. The veal chop. Oh, we have a veal chop tonight. We're going to do it with a little more solace. A little color. What if they gave you the pounded veal millionaire, bill chat, millionaires. Phenomenal. That's a, that's a blind order for me. Yeah. Is that millionaires at a nice restaurant? It's like, really? That sounds awesome. I tune on, I almost always tune the specials out. You've already decided you're like the Ravens. Well, I've already decided on 10 and seven. I don't want to hear your opinion. What's your track record with specials? Like mine's like 10%. So with that in mind, special to the restaurant, the chef's like, I was excited to make this, you gotta pretend, you know? Yeah. But you're not even, uh, what do I care what he, he almost definitely has different tastes than I do. Well, since he is the sexy team du jour. Yep. There over 10 and a half inexplicably, they were six and 11 last year, minus one 98 for the playoffs. Plus one 65 for the division 21 for the super bowl. Uh, you can super short them and go under seven and a half for them at plus four 20, which, which, which guy in ringer wise guys is going to do that. What's the bundle ish. Yeah. We've already covered this. This is the hard, all that. Uh, yeah. I can't remember. Yeah. Nobody came out really four 20s that's underset seven and 10. So that's a five week burrow injury. Basically you could do that. They could do that. Um, my, what if for you never mentioned in all of the, we love the Bengals regression schedule so much easier, Joe burrow. What if the Bengals can't block for Joe burrow again? Because I don't think they're going to be able to, they didn't do it. First of all, it, it sucks that their defense was maybe worse. I'm, their offensive line, which can never protect Joe burrow. And they decided to put all their assets into defense, all the picks. Um, but with part of the logic being, if we improve our defense, that makes it easier for Joe. He wouldn't have to be on the field. It's like, right. Does that make it easier for Joe? He's, he's still running for his life when you run plays for him. How's that easier? I would rather have an offensive line. It's bad, but they did score 37 back-to-back games and lost both. So I think that has to be the concern. But then again, you're right. Yeah. He's played six years. He's made it to the finish line. Three of those six or whatever, as, as I honestly wasn't playing that well last year before he went down. Yeah. He gave up 492 points last year, the super bowl year. He wasn't, that wasn't his best year. Right. I want to talk about Zach Taylor because this is the hottest of hot seats. Like he's number one, hot seat, right? This is hot ones. What, what flavor of hot is this house? Is this like Armageddon? Yeah. Whatever the atomic one, one of the last two or three. Yeah. The only reason I don't think it's the hottest is because they're so fucking cheap. They would have to do the calculus of paying two coaches. Yeah. Like how much is the extra? Is this going to cost? Well, what, what happens in the middle of the year? Yeah. is promote the assistant. Now, he had excuses. I don't think he has them this year. If Burrow makes it or not, I think this is it. Absolutely. It's funny you said hot seat. I wrote make or break coach this year. Sure. Just like, this is it. There's no way he comes back if they don't make it. Also, Burrow has not made the playoffs since 2022. And I do wonder if there's a world where Mahomes doesn't get concussed in that playoff game, which he clearly got concussed and then they left him in to cost the three of us a lot of money and also led the Bengals to the Super Bowl. And Joe Burrow has never been in a Super Bowl. Mahomes just makes it again. Like, do we talk about him a little differently? Right. He's just become Dak Prescott at that point. Maybe. Way better pass rush. Easy schedule. Easy Patriots-esque schedule. That's about it. Extra games at Miami, at Washington, home for KC. No short week games. Right. They finally took a center in the fourth round. But otherwise, it was all defense. They signed Dexter Lawrence. They get him from the Giants. They're second round pick. And they signed and traded him, basically. They gave up the 10th pick in the draft for him. Right. That was it. So the first pick was a second round pick. This guy has historically short arms, they say. Cassius Howell, the edge. But he's supposed to also help third easiest strength of schedule. I have their roster at 17 points. Burrow is eight of those points. He has an eight. Josh Allen was a nine. Burrow was an eight. Chase was a five. Highest receiver points you can get in my system, five. Higgins was two. So just 15 points for those three guys. I had the offensive line as a minus one. You could talk me into a minus two for them. And Lawrence has three points. And no other guys got points. And this is like, I take the player ranking thing seriously. I don't know if it always works, but I read all the lists. Like ESPN has a great list. PFF. They have four good players. I don't understand how we're penciling them in for 11 wins. I don't care how easy the schedule is. I don't see what's different about them the last year. I don't really get the case. I don't normally bite on Cincinnati. I'm always like, yeah, this is a sexy thing. I don't know why I'm going over. I probably wish I could reverse what I did with, you know, you did with the Ravens and Bengals, but I'm going, I'd go over 10 and a half at plus 105. Is that their number? Yeah. 10 and a half. Yeah. They play, the only good QBs they play are Lamar twice, Mahomes, Lawrence, and Daniels. Hmm. And then they move into the Stroud-Rogers two times, Baker, Shuck, Bryce, and Daniel Jones and his one leg. And then they play Watson twice, Willis, Cam Ward, and Tua slash Penix. I think what I'm looking at, giving them 11 wins. I went 10 wins, even though I don't even like the team. I just feel like they're going to score 30 points 10 times against a shitty team, right? Yeah. And, you know, take it for what it's worth, favorite in 15 games. Yeah. I think that matters. Yeah. For sure. 11 wins seems rich for me considering Right. A, they can't block. B, burrow injury potential. C, how many times, how many games did Chase and Higgins play together? Right. I always feel like one of them is banged up or Higgins goes out for three, four weeks. So, I don't know. 10 wins seems, the under seems safe because if there's an injury to Chase or an injury to burrow or an injury to Lawrence, like, any of those three guys, you could say this about a lot of teams, but especially this team, like, they have no room for error with their star players. So, under for me. You don't like Flacco coming in in relief? No. Pittsburgh Steelers, their over-under is eight and a half. Five to one for the division. A couple of ringer-wise guys kicked the tires on that one a little bit. Playoffs plus 160. 10 plus wins is plus 180. I would do that over playoffs because I think it's going to be 10 in the AFC. Under five and a half wins is plus 380. A couple what-ifs here. What if Rodgers cannot make it through the season at age 42? Whoa, whoa. Bombshell. Whoa, what if? Is there any chance with Drew Aller that they could still hit the over? Oh. The preseason was pretty impressive for our guy Drew. Yeah. And I don't, yeah, I don't, I don't feel, I feel like they could go nine and eight even if Rodgers doesn't finish the season. What are your thoughts on that? on that? That's interesting. I do have him playing over three and a half games at the line I made up in my head. I don't know that this recarnation of, you know, Mike McCarthy and I don't know if this, this isn't the offense he signed up for. This guy throws 30% of his passes beyond, behind or at the line of scrimmage. I mean, they're trying to stretch it out. Yeah, we could cry. I mean, everything was as good as it could be for the Steelers last year, right? Like they were 10 and seven to say they're going to regress two, two games and break that streak. And by the way, I wish they had a camera on Mike Tomlin when they officially go eight, nine, because that's where I have them here. But yeah, it's, it's all Rodgers. Thanks for coming back, but I will not take the fifth as I review his putrid, putrid stats here. 32nd in success rate, 33rd in air yards, 28th, third and three and outs, dead last completion under pressure. There you go. I said it. I feel patriotic. I think I either rooted for the team that he had the good game against or bet on the team that he had the good game against all the times that happened. Yeah. I felt like I was over six. How lucky could they get? Burrow was out. The Ravens started one and five, two and five. The Browns with the Browns. There's some injuries on the defense. Yeah. There's a week 13 game. They go Broncos black Friday at home. And then the next week, Sunday night football against the Texans and Tomlin's going to be there obviously or it's a Tomlin game. And that, that is the worst possible defense for a 42-year-old. Oh, yeah. Aaron Rodgers. I just feel like they'll be cutting the Tomlin. Kind of be like, all right. So I mentioned, I mentioned the coaches thing with when we were talking about Minter about how this year it's weird with the coaching changes because they're the ones that I think are going to be significant aren't necessarily the ones you would think. Kind of feel that way about Pittsburgh. I think my other what if would be what if Tomlin was, kind of washed the last couple years. Their offense was an abomination. They have good players in their defense. Like I had in my player rankings, five guys have points in that defense. Everybody loves their front seven. Yeah. Right. Especially if they can revive TJ. Like special teams pretty good. Jamel Dean. Their front seven is going to be awesome. Yeah. And him and they got Pittman, which I think was important. They got Dowdle who I've always liked. I feel like they've set Rodgers up better than they did last year. This team's good. I actually think they're pretty talented. You're going to go nine, ten wins? What are you doing? Well, here's the thing with McCarthy. He has basically the exact same credentials with the records as Harbaugh and Payton. They all won a Super Bowl. They've all run the same with the wins. Like if you if you hid the names and just looked at the thing you wouldn't know who was who. Right. I just feel like this is ten and seven. And maybe even a little bit higher. I think their offense is going to be way better. He's good at offense. You had him in Dallas. I know. Their offense put up their offense did shit. Our quarterback throws beyond the line of scrimmage though. True. Do I have to take you through those numbers again? I get it. And I know they get a wide receiver Alabama they're excited about and all that. But I just I don't like the schedule at all. I feel like they have to go six and three before that mid-stretch of Cincinnati, Philly, Denver on Black Friday at Jacksonville and Baltimore. That is crushing in that middle. We have ten to fifteen. Ten to fifteen. That's it. Cleveland twice. Atlanta. Jones. Shuck. Bryce and Ward. So they have seven bad QB games basically which is okay. I think they're collapse proof though pretty much because they knuckleball their way to wins. They win these clownish games. So that's why I have them at eight and nine. Zero indoor games for the Steelers. Outdoors for four plus months. Yeah. I think that's fine. I think that's good for them though. Yeah. They beat the Falcons week one at Patriots Bengals at Browns home Colts. I genuinely think that's four and one. They're going to have that's what they're going to have to be with those other games we mentioned. The problem for them is they lose to the Browns or have a weird game against the Browns every year. They have week eight November 1st Browns Thursday night football. Oh, I'm already predicting that's one of the five weirdest games of the year. Yeah. Yeah. That'll be decided by something bizarre. Uh, I like this team though. I think, I think this is the 10 win team, not the Bengals. Wow. You think the outdoor games help? I had the Bengals 10 wins too. I think, I think it'll come down to the matchups. I think they're going to get the playoff spot, not the Bengals. No kidding. I had the Bengals at either nine or 10, but I think that Steelers get the 10. I mean, they faced the number three past defense right now this year, uh, in their schedules. I don't, I don't know. I don't know how he does it. I like the vibes. I like everything I'm seeing from the training camp, but I think Tomlin, I think that just got weird. I think, you know, you're the coach of the team and everybody kind of knows it's ending and he almost didn't come back the previous year. I just. You say all that, but remember, go back and look year over year over year, their record in one score games. They're, and the record of the Steelers is underdogs. I get it. Nobody matches Tomlin for that. And they, they ran that playbook to a tee last year. Seven and three last year. One score plus 12 turnover margin. You know, I just think that's the best. - Well, can't they have the DNA from that with also having better offense yeah they could get the funny thing is they're going to get as far as they did that that's absolutely the furthest who they play houston the first round and got smoked you play the outdoor game and now you got a 40 something year old quarterback yeah who has to get ball rid of the ball yeah i don't think they're winning a playoff round i just think they there's a path for 10 and 7 and most of it has to do with cincinnati who i kind of wish i'd pick for 9 and 8 but i just i couldn't i really had trouble finding afc wins i was really low on everybody like i added it up and i was like ah fuck like i'm seven wins lower than i need to be don't tip your hand here you added seven wins you gave five of the first we've done two divisions in the afc and you have five of those teams at at least 10 wins yeah he found he found the place he has pittsburgh baltimore cincy yeah i'm in buffalo that's 50 wins and i know he has houston at 15 wins so i don't think maybe i need to move cincinnati to nine and eight move them to the nfc all right last one is cleveland cleveland was my favorite sleeper for about two weeks during the part of the summer when you start talking yourself into teams yeah they're over under five and a half playoffs plus 640 worst record six to one last year there were five and twelve um they had a harder schedule a worse roster in the same terrible qb situation they're in now um they also had miles garrett and they had jim schwartz and stefanski um what if the browns miraculously get like a c-minus from the qb position what if watson has a little bit of a turnaround or sanders comes in like just a c-minus not even a c-plus could this team win like eight games no c-minus still gets in the seven games i think okay i think i mean this is a laughable situation and a mutual friend of ours yeah who hates the browns yeah said as this deshaun watson signing handcuffed them more than any other player in any franchise ever for as long as it has now the the counter to that is they always make mistakes anyway the browns ownership they weren't going to win anyway they were just going to fuck it up with somebody else yeah but in terms of like morally corrupt yeah going in and then signing him and then giving him the big money and then for him to go out there and say why am i getting booed how dare they like who's going to get booed if you don't get booed you played 19 games in three years you've been horrific and they can't move on because of you and now you're the starter it's pretty rare like you see teams or players like they bum out their fan base suck the life out of them you rarely see the fan base enraged yeah it's the hardest thing to do like when the red sox traded mookie bets like we were enraged we really made us mad this is like a whole other level i don't even know there's no one right this is like somebody walking in on their wife or man yeah you know and not even normal sex like like a crazy position house right lord yeah i thought house told you not to say anything about this sorry house yeah no but just like you walk in on something pretty crazy right what was the movie the hangover when the people are showing up for the for the orgy not the hangover uh old school luke wilson comes home and his girlfriend people are coming for the orgy it's like that right the browns fans are like that level like for five years it's been a five-year orgy the whole four years well some stuff in their favor miles garrett turns out he is eligible for the ewing theory they won jack shit with them okay great player they had another monster they've had two awesome drafts in a row really this one was like they got a new left tackle conceptional in boston everybody loves these guys at receiver they got mcneil warren at safety all those guys were top 60 picks the last draft was fanon uh judkins and uh wessinger the defensive rookie of the year and there was one more and judkins did you say they're running back yeah um they have young talent anywhere and i again i thought stephanski was terrible last year like to the point it seemed like he was throwing games but he might have just been bad um their offensive lines if here and no jim schwartz who um sadly they couldn't keep or figure out how to have yeah here's why i think your c minus quarterback thing won't hold up i don't think the defense will be narrowly as good they both like have 45 straight games without allowing a 300 yard passer guess why because miles garrett is getting double teamed jared verse is a nice player but yeah it's not going to be the same thing so so you're not buying the ewing theory they're going to have to score 27 to win a lot of games i think one case for them is how awful their schedule is i mean how awfully good it is for them rogers twice bryce gino cam ward cousins stroud shuck to uh dart jones are all quarterbacks they don't know how to play so if their defense is good they really there is a path for them to get to seven and ten even if they're just handing the ball off every you know for four quarters i uh i have them as a slight under at five and twelve and you could even talk me into four and thirteen and the reason is now it'd be the most browns thing ever for them to fuck up their chance to finally get a quarterback by having a bad pick but i just how are the incentives aligned to do this like we just saw haslam owns the bucks he could have traded yannis jalen and picks right and tried to be good and instead they tanked and they're going to rebuild and i i don't understand he's used to being wrong but they did ask haslam or he offered it i think they asked him they told him it was five and a half was over on there i'm serious and he said he would go over right that's just something else he's going to be wrong about that's probably what the only thing we've needed to discuss in terms of picking this so they have watson for two games at jags at bucks yeah jason lloyd who does a good job at the athletic field he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy he's a good guy they're telling they're telling you all what they think of shooter sanders by how they've handled this like they obviously just don't think he's good right and there's no other unless they trade for i don't know stetson bennett or uh tyson bajan jimmy g's a free agent yeah talk to me if you're jimmy g do you want to go play for the browns and get the shit kicked out of you i'm a slight under i'm five and five and twelve is where i have it too can't i couldn't go over on this yep house your thoughts on this division yeah so i am drinking the cincinnati kool-aid um i knew you would you have to believe that the offensive line that the idea of continuity even though they were substandard in execution that the guy's returning that there's a upside to it that's the only way this makes any sense because you have appropriately criticized that offensive line and it has been the thing that's held them back because they can't keep joe burrow upright but when he's upright with all those weapons now i have a view you and i talked about this before taping today i think that defense is is potentially sneaky good it took them a while to get used to al golden who came over from notre dame i'm in on this too half of the season we talked about this and the splits for them the latter half of the season he did some things that that that um uncomplicated assignments he altered the scheme and they all got on the same page now you pointed out look at who they play i was in on this theory till i look who they played but he won me over for 10 seconds with this theory yeah then we went and actually looked through what about you can only play who's on your schedule no i think there were reasons and it was a very good defense against those shit teams and those shit quarterbacks and this schedule that the bengals have in front of them that's what really bolsters the case i love what you're doing with baltimore and i don't really disagree i just to to me as a brand new coach i have jesse minter in this baltimore team in the exact same place as seattle with mike mcdonald they won 10 games as soon as mike mcdonald arrived and then super bowl the second year i think it's going to take them one year to kind of get their legs that defense was so bad last year that baltimore defense that's what let them down more than any other thing jim har the harbaugh coach and the and the defense um so 10 wins for baltimore is good it's crazy to me that they arrived at 11 and a half they were the top uh win total in the afc for most of the summer it just dropped down as we're you know everybody's starting to pay attention to 10 and a half so i have cincinnati at like 11 wins 10 and then i think pittsburgh's taking a big step back you have to like really give uh credence to what tomlin did in one score games it's not just last year when 70 of their wins were one score games it's tomlin year after year after year i'm not in i get it and then uh browns and last i get it i wonder how much of it is just the franchise and the identity of the city and just weird shit happening year after year with them 18 years we're gonna find out for that but we're gonna find out now that he's not there if it was tomlin or if it was something deeper the trey i know we touched on it but it's a it's a key piece to this division it whether or not the it makes the rhythms better there's this you know there's the belief that he's 31 years old he missed what nine or ten games last year like you're not getting the best version of trey hendrickson and if that's the case kudos to i always thought he was pretty good when you played yeah wanted to mention quickly fando's nfl futures reward stack um where it's basically it's a five-pack house uh unrestricted two unrestricted it's a make or miss playoff playoffs regular season wins player milestones um you can do any of those and you get the 50 profit boost token aka the ppt pbt pbt that's what i always have troubles with peas and bees token part of my speech dyslexia no fando has just covered uh you have until monday um august 31st the last day of august as it turns out to hop in on this i would highly encourage it that's tomorrow a bunch of picks yeah yeah yeah give me a bunch of great picks and uh What's your favorite Do we have a player one for the AFC Or have we not gotten to it yet Are you like if you had to do it over Yours is AJ Brown right Yeah I would do any AJ Brown Touchdowns I'd probably do the touchdowns for AJ Brown Yeah Because I think there's going to be some fuck you touchdowns in there Be my guess Does Vandal list fuck you touchdowns I searched for fuck you Like a six and a half or something for Henry This episode is brought to you by DirecTV Football fans you know the situation You are ready to watch 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Click or tap the banner to order Or visit a Panda Express Near you Alright, the most boring part of the podcast And every ringer podcast Is the AFC South and the Houston Texans It's rare we're all aligned on a team I know I had to make some moves To be able to get these Houston bets in A month ago that I don't want to talk about I love this Please talk about it You made some moves I'm going to talk about it Talk about it And then think about it My daughter's boyfriend, Hank Who's a great kid Turned 21 this summer As did my daughter And FanDuel is in Massachusetts Obviously And there was a couple bets I really wanted to get in I wanted There was UCLA overs But Houston The market had not shifted Appropriately yet I can't have my daughter do it My dad would have no idea how to do it But Hank I really Trust Hank I let Hank log into my FanDuel As me I get the code To make sure it's me to my phone I give him the code He logs in And I have all this money That I had from last year Because I actually hit A bunch of futures last year And he's putting in Bets for me And honestly It was the closest I've ever felt to Hank It's a real bonding moment for us A week later Called him up Read it back We did some more You know what's great about this for Hank Like you know The groom is traditionally Supposed to ask the father Of the bride If she could have her hand Do I have your blessing And he's like Oh no I have his FanDuel password I definitely have his blessing To take his daughter If Zoe calls And he's like Dad I broke up with Hank I'm like hold on I can't change my password It's the greatest Anyway Hank Have you told her She needs to give you a heads up If they're going to break up So you can change the password Inside information She needs Yeah You need that She's going to give it to Adam Schefter He ran Adam Schefter What did you say What was the word I don't know Dead fish You dead fished House He met House met Adam Schefter A couple years ago Like a pretty Not that big Country club Golf thing Very nice charity event Very nice Yeah And House went up to him Knowing that he'd been Adam Schefter had been on my podcast Obviously House is And introduced himself And I'm at the ringer I just want to express my admiration I did It wasn't like I'm not here To talk for 10 minutes Yeah It wasn't a An ear bender I didn't show up With intentions And I made it clear That I would move right on I was near the bar It was a drive by He just dead fished House Was he on two phones At the time House didn't tell us this For two years Yeah what the hell House why are you Holding this in I've been saving it He really was He didn't need to be So mean to Jed York So I have to share The story now Okay He was really upset About Jed York I've known House Since 1988 This is less than Three stories of people Who have dead fished House Yeah Everybody Everybody loves House You don't dead fish House I couldn't believe it How dare anyone's Mean to House Houston Texans Over nine and a half Yeah Yes Yeah Divisions plus 120 Signed me up for that Playoffs minus 176 Throw that in any parlay Number one seed plus 950 12 plus wins Plus 220 You love this Best record 12 to 1 Long story Case on why I love this But I'll give you the what if What if They can semi salvage Stroud this year C plus Stroud Oh yeah Give me a C plus Yeah well listen He was fine Except for those playoffs And those playoff games Is what cost him an extension Right like he really Should have been Anybody else would have But then what did he do Five interceptions Six sacks No touchdowns Maybe showing up To training camp With the Awkward backpack And like he's about To present his Social studies project I admit that Might have hurt too But other than that It doesn't matter It doesn't really matter It really doesn't Like they get so much Pressure from Danell Hunter And Will Anderson Who they extended And that's all they Kind of need Defensively They're the scariest team In the league And that's why As long as they're healthy They're bulletproof The rest of the way I felt like I was Taking crazy pills The entire offseason They have the best defense In the league Yeah It's the best Nobody would argue it They didn't lose anybody From the defense And added blankenship Right so everybody's back I thought they were Probably the best defense They were the best team Last year And Stroud just fucked them In that game Why did he fuck them? Bad offensive line They had the worst Running backs in the league And they had Wide receiver injuries And I just think He lost his confidence As the year went along Montgomery Not getting told My grandkids That I saw David Montgomery Run the ball In the NFL Your grandkids Are going to have Your password to Yeah my grandkids Are going to be like Grandpa I'm on your Fan duel But Montgomery's Really solid They had Nick Chubb Last year Who just retired Yeah And they had Woody Marks And it was just A rotating You know And now they're Competent there Wide receivers deeper They have They have red zone Woes Definitely And Montgomery Should solve A few of those Really frustrating If you bet on them Last year Had them in a tease To watch them Collins The two rookies From last year They're back Higgins is hurt But Noel's back Yeah And then Tank Dell Is in the Higgins spot And then they traded for Booty Who I really liked Yeah And then The offensive line Is the question Yeah It's not great And it's the one red flag To me the offensive line I'm much more worried about Than Stroud The problem is I mean the problem For the rest of the conference In the league Their defense is so Fucking good I'm not really sure It's going to matter that much Like they're going to have Leads They're going to just Absolutely smoke teams In my rankings I had them at 27 points I had seven Guys that got points On their defense Anderson, Hunter Al Shayer Stingley Lassiter Bullock And Petray And that's not That Blankenship Didn't even get it Fairbairn is one of the Best kickers in the league Ryan's I think is like One of the seven best coaches Right And I think their defense And the coaching And the special teams Can carry this Seventh easiest Strength of schedule First three out of four Are home It's all looking good I would put it this way Were you that all of us Are all in on this Yeah Yeah It's my only thing That scared Of course I felt like as everybody Was getting behind them Higgins blew out his ACL Like the next day almost That wasn't great But I also feel There's a lot of Stroud talk I think there could be Ten wins plus With Davis Mills Right And he shows he could Win games Only because you only Have to score like 17 points To win some of these games That's a good point I like Davis Mills If I was Cleveland I would trade my third round Pick for him And yet they had 404 points last year Which was the second most In franchise history So Here's the thing with Stroud At least Stroud has done it Yeah At least we know He was good At one point Which was only two Three years ago And at least we know There were real reasons He wasn't good last year They couldn't block They couldn't run the ball Yep He had nobody to throw the ball to Lost his confidence That's fine Bills Bengals To start the season Both at home We're no lot more After week two But They own the Bills Yeah I think I think this defense Is going to be I think they thought they were the best team last year. right they're going in this year they're like we're the best team in the afc we're gonna go show it so i have them uh it's an over it's a lock for me 12 and 5 12 and 5 is the same i have they have this uh georgia tech guard who i think allowed two sacks in 43 games they're shoring up that offensive line as much as they can they got a michigan tight end so i don't know and that that schedule what did we say four prime time they play the jags in london night road games plus jags in london so that's not awesome no teams coming off a buy they face no teams coming off of buys afc south goes afc north and nfc east so not awesome they play alan burrow dac herbert lamar love daniels and hertz and i'm not sure that's going to matter they end the season with the titans which could be dangerous for the 12 plus wins bet if they've have whatever quenched and then all right hedge if you had and got that far um all in i really like the coach too i think he's good i i think they probably should have beaten the pats last year extrav just single handedly screwed the game up but they we can do anything against their defense yeah and then eventually the defense realized like oh we're we're just screwed jacksonville eight and a half plus 210 for the division 27-1 for super bowl minus 106 for the playoffs really the most dead even above the playoffs full plus wins plus 360 under seven half wins plus 190. this is yet another turnover regression team everybody's been um regressing we need a word for this it's a regress regression orgy yeah just these regression teams but what if there's a crazy turnover regression coming for them and then you pick apart the streak at the end the eight games they're averaging 32 a game and you actually go back and look at some of those games the only really super impressive one was denver right and there's some other ones like they played indie twice during that stretch after um jones had already gotten hurt and they've been a little bit more aggressive and they've been a little bit more aggressive yeah i can't get there with this team i don't know this is the one where my reasoning doesn't match up with my pick at all and i have them at 10 wins and last year we sat here and i picked them to win the division and because travis hunter's been great and brian thomas jr is going to have a great oh what a sophomore year neither neither one didn't play and one barely played and it was terrible and it was all jacoby meyers coming in and lawrence like stepping up like we no one no one's business at the end's gone again again i don't know why i'm ignoring that i'm ignoring that i'm ignoring the regression here they had what six one score games and top three and takeaways but i do think this is just one of my gut feelings i'm going under because i think indianapolis takes a tumble and i think lawrence has the confidence to get them the double digit wins at this point oh so you're under on the jacks no well i was is it ten and a half eight and a half yeah i'm going ten wins yeah so you're over over yeah yeah i'm under juice to the over yeah i have them at eight nine you could talk me into nine and eight you cannot talk me into ten my biggest thing with them the you know this hunter trade they did which cost them a lot of draft capital like their draft sucked i think they had the worst draft in the league yeah it wasn't and all the people i know who like the draft also thought it was the worst draft anyone had the tight end no first round 19 catches yeah it was just weird yeah it was not good um they lost etn they lost lloyd they were playing i guess tootin hopefully keep your fingers crossed we talked about him on tuesday's spot below average off defensive line it's another thing i don't like um and then the the brian thomas jr where it's like no no he's doing great it's like i had him last year i've never taken that guy again uh a lot of red flags i from a roster standpoint i had them at 15 and that's what's giving parker washington a two um i only had three guys on defense that i thought were impactful and i don't like the schedule at all they have nine road games plus two in london so they have six home games in jacksonville and then they have a lot of red flags and then they have a lot of red flags and then 11 games at all other locations um and defenses they go against this year cleveland denver new england philly houston twice baltimore giants if they're good and the and uh a shootout with the bears but um i couldn't get there yeah again i don't have a lot to that they have to get to december like that's what they have kind of easier than with dallas washington and indianapolis um i think they have 35 days between home games because they doing renovations on their stadium but i have them winning both uh london games so that's why so that includes beating the texans yeah so i had them getting swept by the texans which then puts them eight and seven for everybody else sure and i think there are 500 team i don't feel great about it i certainly wouldn't make it a lock or anything um i i i just don't feel great about it i don't feel great about it i don't feel great about it i don't feel great about this hunter he's the single biggest impediment to this team's advancement because colin is good he's a good head coach did he dead fish you is that why you're upset i don't know wow house is like hey you know i'm doing he's like indianapolis coats over eight and a half a tale of two seasons last year yeah number one seed 25 to one gonna rule that out under six and a half wins plus 210 you're gonna rule that out under six and a half wins plus 210 um division plus 340. what if um division plus 340. what if daniel jones who blew his achilles out daniel jones who blew his achilles out daniel jones who blew his achilles out halfway through last season halfway through last season halfway through last season is not 100 this season no doubt is not 100 this season no doubt is not 100 this season no doubt how can you pick this team for any for how can you pick this team for any for how can you pick this team for any for a winning record if it's daniel jones a winning record if it's daniel jones a winning record if it's daniel jones not 100 not 100 not 100 yeah i don't see the case this is my yeah i don't see the case this is my yeah i don't see the case this is my lock under six and eleven sorry tony lock under six and eleven sorry tony lock under six and eleven sorry tony tokens tony and all the token family tokens tony and all the token family tokens tony and all the token family everybody yeah i'm going under here i everybody yeah i'm going under here i everybody yeah i'm going under here i think you're right i think we'd have to think you're right i think we'd have to think you're right i think we'd have to do exactly what he did last year which do exactly what he did last year which do exactly what he did last year which means use his legs to extend plays means use his legs to extend plays means use his legs to extend plays and uh i don't think it's happening and and uh i don't think it's happening and and uh i don't think it's happening and pierce just came off the pup as far as pierce just came off the pup as far as pierce just came off the pup as far as that part made me nervous too big that part made me nervous too big that part made me nervous too big contract for pierce hasn't got the contract for pierce hasn't got the contract for pierce hasn't got the surgery after the contract or whatever surgery after the contract or whatever surgery after the contract or whatever the timeline was and now it doesn't the timeline was and now it doesn't the timeline was and now it doesn't seem like he's 100 seem like he's 100 seem like he's 100 i don't know why and they lost pitman i don't know why and they lost pitman i don't know why and they lost pitman they lost pitman i'm dinging them for they lost pitman i'm dinging them for what jacksonville did too they had what jacksonville did too they had what jacksonville did too they had turnovers in 15 games they forced turnovers in 15 games they forced turnovers in 15 games they forced turnovers yeah so i don't think that's turnovers yeah so i don't think that's turnovers yeah so i don't think that's happening again happening again happening again i think this is a 6-11 team i think this is a 6-11 team i think this is a 6-11 team ravens week one at chiefs week two ravens week one at chiefs week two ravens week one at chiefs week two texans week three yeah that's oh and texans week three yeah that's oh and texans week three yeah that's oh and three with daniel jones on three with daniel jones on three with daniel jones on one leg basically i think you can keep one leg basically i think you can keep one leg basically i think you can keep going he shouldn't get worse and worse going he shouldn't get worse and worse going he shouldn't get worse and worse it's crazy it's crazy it's crazy i really was thinking about a lock should i really was thinking about a lock should i really was thinking about a lock should we lock this down together we lock this down together we lock this down together the other part of it is luana rumo's um the other part of it is luana rumo's um the other part of it is luana rumo's um the second version of his defense i like the second version of his defense i like the second version of his defense i like it less and less the bendo break yeah it less and less the bendo break yeah it less and less the bendo break yeah the bend don't break i think it breaks the bend don't break i think it breaks the bend don't break i think it breaks yeah i i mean eight nine and eight yeah i i mean eight nine and eight yeah i i mean eight nine and eight i'm not gonna lock it top three tacklers i'm not gonna lock it top three tacklers i'm not gonna lock it top three tacklers gone franklin cross pratt gone franklin cross pratt gone franklin cross pratt i might lock it i'm gonna keep thinking i might lock it i'm gonna keep thinking i might lock it i'm gonna keep thinking about it all right their first date i about it all right their first date i about it all right their first date i do not enjoy good offensive line though i'm not gonna good offensive line though i'm not gonna good offensive line though i'm not gonna lock it like tyler warren lock it like tyler warren lock it like tyler warren sure taylor was great last year sure taylor was great last year sure taylor was great last year they get a full sauce gardener season they get a full sauce gardener season they get a full sauce gardener season we'll see if ward can avoid the we'll see if ward can avoid the we'll see if ward can avoid the concussions concussions concussions um all right titan's over five and a um all right titan's over five and a um all right titan's over five and a half under four and a half is plus 220 worse under four and a half is plus 220 worse under four and a half is plus 220 worse records plus 750 i'm not giving you the records plus 750 i'm not giving you the records plus 750 i'm not giving you the other ones they did uh did bring in big other ones they did uh did bring in big other ones they did uh did bring in big shot bob shot bob shot bob salla right day ball salla right day ball salla right day ball what if cam ward doesn't have it what if cam ward doesn't have it what if cam ward doesn't have it what if he just doesn't have it what if what if he just doesn't have it what if what if he just doesn't have it what if it's what if he's not good it's what if he's not good it's what if he's not good the advanced stats against him were the advanced stats against him were the advanced stats against him were horrific last year right but they also horrific last year right but they also horrific last year right but they also had the worst coach probably this decade He's got to show a little more than once a month doing that thing where he rolls right and he's almost stepping out of bounds, but then heaves it across the field. Yeah. The coffin corner. The video gameplay. Yeah. It's a little bit of like a Hail Mary and did that like twice and everyone's like, oh, maybe there's something there. But yeah, you're right. The EPA, everything, it's way under. Really like abysmally bad. No good. You can't even compare it to, I don't know, Drake May's rookie year. Like if you watch Drake May that year, like, man, this guy, I was really bullish on him after the year. He's running for his life, but he was making plays and seemed like a winning quarterback and Ward. I want him to be good. We need more good quarterbacks. I just don't know if he's good. And again, there's a pressure on us to go from a four to a one, the fourth place to a first place. I did put them at eight wins. I do think Wandel Robinson is going to help and Carnell Tate. Like that'll be as good a wide receiver this year. Yeah. This, this year, 2026, eight, nine. Yeah. It's okay. What's wrong here? This house, he needs help. What? You've Tennessee at eight and nine. Yeah. Gus Bradley, defensive coordinator. You got Sal in there. He's terrible. It's fine. It's going to be good. Well, eight and nine. They were at six and a half, nearly all summer, um, in terms of the wind total. And then here we are and it's down to five and a half, um, the sharps have been used to the over Franklin Myers. That Denver player is really good. They locked him in. I think defense will be better over almost $300 million on free agent. Right. So it's six wins is minus one 35. It's cause the saying you see, there's a possibility for two more and the schedule is including that week. team game that you talked about. Right. They drafted Tate and they signed Wendell Robinson. So he's got two weapons. They have the Jets and Giants, too, out of the first three weeks. That's going to tell the story of the season. That's Salah and Dable. That'll be fun for sure. I don't mean to be a dick because he seems like a great guy and Schrager likes him. Even if Schrager won't come on my podcast anymore. What? No, he won't. Dead fish? It's like team ESPN now. Okay. Still friends with them friendly, but just won't come on. Mina's on ESPN. She comes on. Schrager's turned down multiple invitations. Really? Wow. Playing a lot of golf. No kidding. Don't make excuses. You play golf. You're here. I know. I had for their roster, I had offensive line, too. Yeah. Simmons, three points. Stonehouse, one. That was all the guys that got points in this defense. Even Franklin Myers. I wouldn't have put points for him. Here's the thing, though. Big shot Bob Salah. Friend of Schrager. He was terrible on the Jets. Remember? We called him A-Kid Salah. We talked about what a fucking train wreck that team was. They didn't have a lot of help. Their defense was always pretty good with him, but you know. And then Dayball was a maniac on the Giants sideline, so I don't know. I can't get there with this. We're forced to take a fourth place team and I won't put one in the playoffs like this, but they can go a win and a half over their expectation, right, House? Why not? Yeah, that's all. They basically have to beat the Jets week one in the Salah revenge game. Because after that, if I'm looking for wins at Giants, maybe at Colts home Browns. One of the Jags games home commanders at Raiders. Yeah. Now you're in that six ish, but you have to win the 80% of those. Yeah, I'm going five and 12 under. House the AFC South talk to us. Yeah, I mean, we're so bullish on Houston and we all bet them. I'm all the way up at like, you know, 12 wins the alt alt win total for Houston. The most important thing for them to me is giving their offensive coordinator Kaylee the opportunity to run Stroud out of under center and that's going to translate into a bunch of opportunities with motion and all kinds of stuff like we didn't see their offense because they thought Joe Mixon was going to play. Running back for them until the goddamn season started. They didn't have a plan B. So this is the version of the offense and I think it really helps settle down the offensive line as well. So that's why that's part of the case for being bullish on Houston. The Jacksonville thing is so fucking weird. They were 13 wins and the market said, congratulations. We think you're an eight and a half win team. 13 last year and now here's your win total. Why don't you get pissed about this with the Patriots? You didn't like the disrespect. I know. I have no counter and yet I think it's the right number and it's the right number because of this GM stinks. They're not replenishing. They're letting guys walk and they're not replenishing. That's the problem. The Patriots actually got better. The Jaguars got worse by any way you want to look at it. They have worse players than they did last year. It's just a fact. I'm mystified by the Colts. I think Steichen is incredible and what he showed us over the first seven games last year. It was like what a revelation that no, nobody had the Colts coming out and leading the league and efficiency and scoring and all the rest of it. But I cannot. I will not and cannot and under any circumstances endorse a guy coming off an Achilles in this short period of time and think that their quarterback room with impaired Daniel Jones and Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson. That's as bad as it gets. Richardson moved down the third, by the way, on the depth chart. So I'm under on the Jaguars, the Titans and the Colts. Yeah, it over on the Texans. I think this is a one one horse division. Right. His house was worried. I was taking too many 10 plus 10 plus wins. Yeah, kind of running and have a couple here. You worked it out, but there should be a couple more. This there's a way this division might actually be in the running against NFC South for at least when fewest wins, huh? I would favor them. It's a good fan. Don't think 36. I gave you AFC South one and a half wins more than the NFC South. Who do you take? Well, I have seven and tens all over. So I have to take I may have 28 for three and a half. What would be the number three and 36 for? Yeah, that's probably the number. You can do this. It's available on family. You can take divisions and there are odds available right now. Division match up, but not spreads, but not spreads. That's right. But you can get an implied probability out of it. I love it. I had Hank to I had Hank to what a scandal. The Browns plus 200. 200 against Atlanta head-to-head. Yeah. Oh, interesting. Yeah. I'm just like, yeah, it's two to one. I figured they'd probably push. Yeah. All right. And this is our last one. Hank is led away in cuffs. Hank's been arrested. When the sun goes down, the appetizers come out. Yeah, you heard that right. Late night half-price appetizers are here at Applebee's. Saucy, sweet, and spicy boneless wings. Crispy, cheesy mozzarella sticks. Creamy spinach and artichoke dip. Your favorite apps, half-price available every single night because why should appetizers have curfews? Tap the banner to learn more. Dining only for a limited time at participating locations. Restrictions apply. Copyright 2026 Applebee's Restaurant LLC. This episode is brought to you by Boar's Head. It may have been years ago, but I still remember the feeling of unpacking my kids' lunchboxes after school and to find nothing left. As a parent, that's a total win. Boar's Head, maple honey ham, American cheese, maple honey turkey, all-time greats in the school lunch game. It's real quality protein that tastes great, so you can feel that winning feeling all term long. Whether you're doing wraps, sandwiches, or a quick snack box, Boar's Head makes packing school lunches easier. They'll be proud of what you pack. They'll be happy to finish it. Fuel their school day with the premium choice Boar's Head. For lunchtime inspiration, visit boar'shead.com slash back to school or head to your local deli counter. AFC, AFC West, Denver Broncos. Over nine and a half. They won 11 games last year. Nine and a half this year. Division 2-1. Playoffs minus 148. 12 plus wins plus 250. What if this was actually the best AFC team last year? You have two teams that probably spent the whole offseason going we should have been in the Super Bowl. I think this one maybe Buffalo. I don't know if Buffalo fired their coach immediately, but I definitely think Houston and Denver were both like, how the fuck did we not make the Super Bowl? I still don't know what happened to Bo Nix. Was it the last play of the game? Did we in the locker room? Did we even say anything? Really was nuts. So what are your thoughts this year? Denver was very kind to us last year. Futures was one of the big hits last year. But it was a down year for the division in terms of you know, Mahomes out there. They had two score one score wins against the Chiefs. Chargers got decimated. Yeah, Chargers decimated the Raiders with the Raiders. This team. I don't know really what to do with them because I think they're very good. I kind of liken them to the Bears. So I know you love but it's the same sort of one score lock, you know, turnover lock 11 and two and one score games one and six in 2024. They trailed in 15 games. They won 14 games and trailed in 15. Now, I don't want to kill Bo Nix for being a having that clutch gene because all that's all that means. He trailed and they brought him back. We watch a giant game together. That was insane. I would normally sign up for a five game decrease. I mean, I wouldn't sign up, but their first six laughably difficult. Casey Jacksonville Rams 49ers Chargers Seahawks. I won't say which is home, which is away. I think that's three and three at best, but they're playing the Chiefs on a Monday night in Casey. Yeah, when first of all is Mahomes is like, no, I'm feeling good. Like it's his first game. It's be weird emotion there. I don't know if I if I'm playing at Kansas City. That's the game. I want to play week one. Really? I want to come right at them before Mahomes is settled and he's back to himself. I don't even know who their receivers are. Yeah. The defense, I think, is a shade below Houston, and that's what's going to keep them in games like Vance Joseph. They have 68 and 63 sacks over the last two years. I have more stuff for you than everything you laid out. I mean, their defense is really good. It's not top three, but it's probably top six. They had the best offensive line in either conference. I got them seven points for the offensive line. Don't give up sacks. Trade it for Waddle. They have two receivers that I gave two points each to Waddle and Sutton and Waddle. I think will really help Bo Nix and then they have Sean Payton, who's one of the six best coaches in the league. So I can block. I can defend and I have a really good coaching staff. I'm not as scared about the schedule. Week 10 through 15 are pretty easy by week Raiders at Steelers. Dolphins at Jets at Raiders and then they get the Chargers the last week. You're going over. I'm not only going over. I'm 11 and six and over lock. This is one of my locks. I'm in on Denver. I don't understand why there's just too much of a foundation here. We talk about Cincinnati. One injury, the thing can fall apart. This team has things can happen and they'll still be okay. Things happened last year and they were okay, but they really have, I mean. it's a little bit of a window team too they're in a little bit of a similar spot with the Pats whereas Nick's on a rookie deal where you were able to spend this money all these different ways I really like RJ Harvey I thought he had real moments last year I want to see more from him this year Waddle's a good pickup he throws short anything like at the line of scrimmage and stuff he's going to make a big play out of our fantasy guys were really bullish on Waddle like they were just like this guy talk about bad quarterbacks you know he's put a big stats last year just absolute crap so I'm in this is my favorite team in the division and I like the division 2-1 odds I already bet that I have the over like I'm in on this team alright I have 9-8 I think that's a tough tougher always stretch 3-3 out of those 6 ok next team is the Kansas City Chiefs over is 9.5 division plus 175 they better division odds than the Denver Broncos go fucking figure that one minus 174 for the playoffs plus 146 not to make the playoffs under 8.5 wins is plus 190 13 plus is plus 440 they were 6 and 11 last year they basically flipped their secondary they lost McDuffie they drafted Delane as what was he like the 6th pick in the draft rookie cornerback moved up to get him they drafted him in a defensive tackle on an edge on the top 40 people like Cyrus Allen as a wide receiver sleeper Mahomes is allegedly healthy so when this happened to Brady after the ACO the 08 season they still went 10 and 6 without him then he came back the next year and there's like this little dark run era of 09 in 2010 before they rebooted and ran off the next thing they were still good they were like 10 and 6 one year 13 and 3 the other year they had the number one offense they were still I just don't see the talent with Kansas City like I don't feel like there's a foundation and it's weird to hear people talk about Andy Reid like well and then Mahomes and Reid and it's like Reid was terrible last year their coaching staff was terrible all the stories that came out from Kansas City was that the team was unfocused that guys were lazy coming out of meetings and like that it was kind of like you know the classic the player as we're running the team and I don't see it like they sent Kenneth Walker okay Rasheed Rice might not be in jail for most of the year fine Worthy's healthy are we sure he's good it's a lot of like glass half full with them because they're the Chiefs I would argue this is like the rebuilding year to lead to next year like Kelsey I just feel like I didn't even give him points I think it's over for him as an impact guy and then Chris Jones is what 32-33 just feels like they're going to move into this different era and I think they know it from the way they treated trading guys and the draft and trying to get picks I think this is a transition year for them I'm under I'm under at 8-9 I feel like I shouldn't say anything I don't want to get in your way here but no and I maybe I just have this old man approach to romanticizing the Chiefs I don't blame you oh my god you could get him to win 10 games and you'll that's the over you're good with that and I think when we give our top 3 or 4 quarterbacks it's always still going to be Mahomes in there and so I'm going to take the over until he gives me a reason not to everything you said is true 10-7 yeah 10-7 and you said what you said is true like he thrives when Travis Kelsey's good and fast and not lumbering and anyone who has Travis Kelsey on your fantasy team or is waiting for the Taylor Swift cutaway knows he doesn't get that 14-yard pass until like the late in the third quarter like is he in a dollar in our league this year yeah Well yeah I think like my wife took him in her draft yes I'm like ugh what is that then she yelled at me she's like oh we have to root for Tyler I'm like yeah I don't know take Goddard there you screwed up but they the NFL has a way of doing Mahomes a favor and they did it this year in the rehab bowl against Bo Nix it's the very last game of week one so they gave him enough time they gave him an easy early schedule first of all he has a bye in week five and then what is the what are the first three I forgot now I forget it's Broncos Colts Dolphins Raiders bye right just trying to buy him as much time as he needs so maybe they're three and one or four no I'm not I'm just not ready to close the the book on him I see getting the enemy back as a positive I know people laugh at that because we're talking about the old guard and everything and I think the Kenneth Walker signing is like solid we talk about like these it's over bloated if you take a Super Bowl MVP Cowboys had one Larry Brown right when he was in the right place the right time against Neal O'Donnell Larry Brown was where my brain was going I think this is this is like with the you know lacking the tight end outlet pass I think Kenneth Walker on the screen is going to be the outlet and it's going to help Mahomes and I think it's going to make the offense good enough it's the defense who did okay through the draft the secondary is really young that's the thing they're going to week 12 through 17 at Bills at Rams both on Thursdays at Bengals home Patriots on a Monday night 49ers at Chargers all in a row right I can't get there with it and it's it reminded me of the early 2020s Pats when we were giving Belichick all that respect and rope because he was Belichick maybe and it's like at some point this is you don't like any of the older coaches you answered your own question I thought Reid was out to lunch last year and I think he's the most media protected QB in either conference especially with all the shit that happens to that team off the field that well Shanahan's the most media well Shanahan for law law enforcement and media but the Reid is like everybody's looking the other way is this he's going to be 70 soon like this is I don't know no there was 6 and 11 they had a plus 34 point differential that I think is important and they're never and they lost some stupid games the Jaguars game was the dumbest loss probably of the year they went from 9 one score wins to 1 like they're never in the middle it's either like 10 10 that's the concerning thing to your point you're going to ride with Mahomes until he he proves that you shouldn't do that well he did have 5 5th quarter touchdown 4th quarter interceptions last year he was 6 and 8 he did and by the way he got hurt at the closer to the end of the season when it was already done he was 6 and 8 like he should get a little more crap House feels more strongly than I do yeah I'm way out on this Kansas City team I don't I mean this this is you have to do what you're doing which is say priors and that's the case for this Kansas City team priors aren't playing in the secondary for this team priors aren't this this pass rush for the for the Chiefs has been worse year over year and they haven't done anything to improve the pass rush so you have one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL with a pass rush their defense was the reason that they lost games last year the offense was Mahomes had a pretty good year efficiency wise and he ran his offensive line was awful and it's and it's not much better this year coming in below average this year it's not spags on defense pulling off you know miracles anymore it's not I get it but it's not always been like that Mahomes was coming back with an ACO and like anytime they're in a big game fourth quarter he takes off he runs he uses his legs is he gonna do that again? if he doesn't it's done is he gonna be more stationary? like Brady I didn't feel even though the stats were relatively the same felt like it took him two years to get the guys falling around your knees I just don't think they go one and five in the division again so give them if they go three and three now they're back up to eight I think they can get to ten I think this is all reputation so what do we do? do we just argue until one of us convinces the other? no we're gonna move to the next team they play a lot of good QBs too Drake May Burrow Herbert twice Allen Stafford Nick twice Darnold Purdy Chargers nine and a half I went back and forth on this one the most of all 32 teams you did division plus 195 I think that's a good bet I think Chargers and Broncos are good bets like you could argue bet both of those and just try to hit one and hope nobody else beats you playoffs minus 158 number one seed plus 800 under seven and a half is plus 310 best record 14 and one they were 11 and 6 last year year three of hardball he wins 11 games every year yep I think he's in the 10 win club which is ultimately why I put him at 10 wins Mikey Mikey Mack is new DJ he's coming in he's a new DJ he's bringing in he's gonna use some salsa and some disco he's gonna play some Omarian people like the rookie pass rusher yeah the bad side they lost Jesse Minter they already lost their center their guards suck too and schedule rest is all time Warren Sharp like had a stroke about their schedule rest it was minus 24 it was like the highest the worst they've ever measured for schedule rest yeah I saw a lot of travel but this team doesn't have home games so I think they're like yeah get us to the road I don't think it matters 17 road games them and Deshaun Watson just playing on the road all year I landed at 10 and that's a slight over I just couldn't pick Harbaugh for nine wins I really worried about the middle of their line though like you lose the center and their guards are both terrible and their tackles are elite but everything in the middle is awful and our team's just gonna yeah push through the middle Adam where do you have I have them at 11 and I know they're starting with this bullshit with the B of Daz being out and the offensive line line and they were like, they had the 27th best injury luck in the league. but Slater and Alt being back it's all the difference when those guys they won 11 games without those guys it's fucking crazy exactly it really is nuts and I have to think Mike McDaniel I really this could be the biggest overreaction in terms of an assistant coming over a coordinator coming over but well that's how bad their offense was before yeah right I like it I like them winning 11 and I have them winning I really want to do 11 I talked myself out of it because of the schedule rest and the center really threw my that threw me off they're starting a rookie at center yeah it's not great Cole Strange is one of their starting guards who is so bad the Pats were the Pats who didn't even have a good offensive line last year was like we gotta get this guy out of here because we might be dumb enough to play him just wave them losing Minter worries me as well and they have a schedule so they go Cardinals, Raiders first two weeks well 2-0 there you go and then they have the next seven are just all time at Bills at Seahawks Broncos at Chiefs Bi-Week at Rams Texans at Ravens it's a fucking gauntlet and then you gotta keep your quarterback yeah you know upright that Texans game you think the Texans are gonna be going up the middle on the Chargers 54 sacks last year third most for any quarterback so I just think if they could just pretend I mean that's the case for everything Hampton only played in nine games that could help them out a little bit if they get a little bit of a run game I do think Herbert and May suffered from a little bit of the same problem as we got to January last year it was like the accumulation of just getting fucking popped you know and the fact that the Chargers offensive line was worse than the Pats but at some point when you're just going back just assuming I only have 2.3 seconds to throw I'm about to take a giant hit at some point as the stakes get higher and more stuff's going on and the teams get better and you're not healthy sometimes they were in the red zone a lot and couldn't score and that's supposed to be where Mike McDaniel is gonna turn it around I don't like Campton as much as some others but I do think having him the whole year will probably help receivers I don't love they're fine yeah Herbert's a very sexy MVP pick it's Ladd McConkie Quentin Johnston and Trey Harrison already a couple of those guys are questionable alright so we're both over for them and then the last team is the Las Vegas Raiders over under five and a half wins five to one to make the playoffs 15 to one for the division they were three and 14 last year eight to one if you want to go for them for worst record they improved their offensive line improved their run game and they have Mendoza lurking plus they have Clint Kubiak why wouldn't we go over on this oh I was gonna say this is my most embarrassing pick of all picking them over I won't do what I've done in prior years take them to win get a wild card or anything but I do think they're gonna go seven and ten I have for this team and and it doesn't have a lot to do with Mendoza my dumb reasoning like Kubiak it was a few years ago but Kubiak and Cousins that was his most productive year he had 31 touchdown passes that year now I can only say this with so much confidence for a team that boasts a wide receiver room of Trey Tucker Jack Beck and Malik Benson which I think only next to the Dolphins is uh that might be worse than the Dolphins but um little Max Crosby karma in there they spent $308 million in free agency that's the second most you know they got Tyler Lindenbaum they got some Colton Miller they have some good linemen in there yeah I think they're gonna be competitive yeah you went over two I went under oh you did after all that yeah I just had them at five and twelve I couldn't get there um it's safe you know Kubiak sure he's gonna be way better than uh the ghost of P.K. Carroll right the the franchise just seems like a mess I don't know what's going on with them like the P.K. Carroll hiring was weird um they spent money but then they also brought in the worst receivers of all time to play with Mendoza and then they brought in Cousins as a Mendoza stopgap um but Mendoza's clearly gonna play by week four and have nobody to throw to and Gentee the sixth pick last year was was bizarre I just think the roster is too weird for me can I give you my Tom Brady take here I feel like people have to be reminded that he's part owner of this team right it's so low on the list and I think it's purposely it's by design that no one remembers because he's involved in all this other crazy shit you know he's doing roasts he's doing subway commercials when he hasn't had a piece of bread in 16 years he's uh you know he's calling he's going after whatever the fuck Paul brother um everything's tight leather pant photo shoots it's all to distract the fact that he owns the Raiders and that's what he's staying away from so I guess I'm saying good job by him he's like the goat of distractions too I can't believe the best defense I've heard of Brady's behavior yet yeah throw it all out there and the broadcasting which is his thing well that was the controversy of the first part of the season right the broadcasting and him being the owner and you know was he in on Pete Carroll and pretty quickly became apparent he was out on him that was a big storyline does he ever step up and make this offense somehow respectable like him himself does he ever get that involved somehow doesn't seem like he cares that much it's crazy how old is he now 45 late 40s might be turning 50 let me ask you a question about the over-under because they play the AFCs then the NFC West in this division so what's their record in the division 1-5 I think I gave them two wins this is the math that makes the most sense for what you're advocating for I've done this 1-5 or 0-6 I totally agree with this I know where you're going I gave them two wins they always have one score games against Denver and I think they pulled 1-5 or 0-6 let's go 1-5 alright you won't let me go 2-4 but that's fine Bills Patriots Rams Seahawks let's go 0-4 for those now I'm at 1-9 almost beat the Patriots now do the Niners and the Niners are sitting there as well I just if you go them 1-9 for those 10 games I need to go 5-2 in the other 7 games and that's why I went under Jets Arizona Miami and by the way every bad other bad team you're playing they're like holy shit we might win this week I couldn't get there I know I wasn't proud of that I didn't finish strong there but I did have them with 7 listen I didn't make it a lock I didn't really love it either way how's your NFC West thoughts I like Denver to win this division mainly it's because the odds are sitting there at 2-1 and the way I think that Denver and the Chargers are like neck and neck and my the reason I went in the direction of Denver is because I match up the units I think that Denver's defense is the best unit of those two teams doing offense defense special teams I like the Denver defense the best out of all the schedules are comparable obviously because they're in division and the Chargers with the uncertainty that's coming into that offensive line it's it's it's annoying I'd really like to see this Chargers offense one time I might have Hank put in a bet a month ago and the Chargers for the division before the center injury you might have it's Broncos Chargers Chiefs I'm so far out on the Chiefs I'm doing all under five and a half because the math you just laid out that's why I'm playing this this is one of my favorite exact Broncos Chargers Chiefs Raiders I think that's how it goes I look forward to Zoe and Hank and a picture of them on a yacht after the Texans win the Super Bowl and you're like oh that's nice whose yacht is that and he's like it's mine I took all your money out of the fan doll of the couch I have because I had Houston over nine and a half and I had Denver over nine and a half as my only two locks in the AFC so I did seven total right I'm going Chargers over I'm going Jets over and that's it all right so you only had four locks total I had for the NFC Dallas over Washington under Tampa over Atlanta under Seattle over and then you had Green Bay I had Green Bay over and did I have were you had some unders well a bunch of those NFC so many hours yeah it's fine we're coming back probably a week from when this airs week from when this airs we're going to do guest lines but we're also going to do our NFL futures draft and that's going to be this Sunday heading into NFL season and you guys on the Ringer Wise guys you're going to finish the last two divisions Rihimo changes picks right up to when you guys start the show the rundown there we go we did it Sal yeah baby four hours 32 teams only a couple arguments one dead fish one fish two fish one illegal gambling story we had a whole bunch of stuff thanks Sal my pleasure thanks for letting me sit in the Craig chair thanks Sal thanks Gahal thanks Eduardo thanks everybody everybody at The Ringer and don't forget to come back on the BS pod and on ringer wise guys. And then me and Sal a week from now. Good job by you. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Sal and house. Thanks to Eduardo and Gahal as always. Don't forget new rewatchables coming tomorrow afternoon. ET time. Can't wait for that because we did a really good movie, like a really, really good one. I'll see you on this feed. Probably Tuesday might just be Thursday this week, but I think it's going to be Tuesday, Thursday this week. So I'll see you at some point this week. Must be 21 plus and president select states for, Kansas in affiliation with Kansas star casino or 18 plus and president DC, Kentucky or Wyoming opt-in required bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens restrictions apply, including any token expiration, max wager amount seat terms at sportsbook.fandler.com. Gave him a problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLE or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 888-79-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline, ma.org. Or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York for Louisiana call 877-770-7867. Hank joined BJ's wholesale club the day he became a father of 30. I coach football. Now coach Hank saves up to 25% off grocery store prices, 30 pounds of pasta, three cases of protein bars, 75 sports drinks. And that's just pregame. He knows, teamwork and BJ's knows savings. This is your home coach home of the save. Join for just $20 at BJ's.com slash mesquite and save 10 cents per gallon for six months. Open soon. Limited time offer. New members only BJ's home of the save. Hello. Look what TJ Maxx dragged in. The devil wears Prada too is now streaming on Disney plus and Hulu. We are digital. We are downloadable. We are streamable. The fashion event of the year is certified fresh. Pull yourself together. We have work to do. Critics say it's smart and witty and the perfect sequel. That's all. Get runway ready for the devil wears Prada too on Disney plus and Hulu rated PG 13.