The Analects of Confucius

This is the Guardian. Everything leading up to the Oscars is an audition for the Oscars. It's now a tipping point. It's very rare that the best film will win. I think this campaign perhaps does show the real genuine risks of gaps. And I don't want to be working in ballet or opera or things where it's like, "Keep this thing alive, even though we're talking about the same thing." He's so marmite as a person, had the opera thing come out a couple of days earlier. It absolutely would have taken up to some distance. With something like Sinners, I think to not give him best director would be terrible. Remember, no black person has ever won best director. The Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles is rolling out the red carpet again for this year's Oscars ceremony on Sunday. So who should win and why? From the Guardians Today and Focus, this is the latest with Meet Lucy Hart. I'm joined by Catherine Shored, the Guardians film editor. It's great to see Catherine. Thanks for coming up. So we are at the end of what has felt like quite a long Oscars campaign trail. It feels like it's a real face-off between two films at this point, doesn't it? Sinners and one battle after another. How would you describe the dynamics of the race at this point? Yeah, it's got very exciting just in the final real, just as the final crunch has happened. And there's a number of reasons for that. One of them is that there's a new rule that if you're an Oscar voter this year, you have to prove that you've actually seen the films that you've been devoting. You wouldn't think you'd be doing it. Of course that's not normally the case. You know what people are like, dreadful. But you can't literally physically sort of click it. Right. Click that one until you've sort of shown that you've watched the others. So that means a huge flurry of late votes, which makes the last of three weeks very, very important. So Oscar voting closed I think a week yesterday. Right. And so the award ceremonies just preceding that take on a huge significance. And they both sort of were one of the mentors inners. That was the actors awards, which were formerly known as the SAG awards. And that was a huge sweep for sinners. It got ensemble and it got lots and it got Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor crucially. And then before that you had the BAFTAs. And although one battle did triumph at the fastest. So this is one battle after another, by Paul Thomas Anderson. And sinners is Ryan Kugler, right? That's right. And it's this vampire horror film set in 1930s, Mr. Cipi. It is that right. That was quite a, you know, I think when it came out last year, it was said to say it wasn't like, immediately obvious that it was going to be such an Oscar juggernaut. But it's been nominated for 16 nominations, which could be a record. It is, it's a record by two. It's not even, it's a sort of far away record. So yeah, I mean, that's true. It wasn't immediately tipped when it came out in April, I think last year. But I think now what with all the sort of consolidation of controversy and so on. I mean, so at the BAFTAs, one thing that happened was the big N-word incident where a Turette campaign shouted at the N-word whilst the two stars of sinners Michael B. Jordan and Delro Lindo were presenting an award. And actually, that may ironically turn out to be the way in which the BAFTAs have the most leverage over this year's events because Jordan and Lindo sort of handled that with such dignity and poise and presence. And it sort of renewed the topicality of the film in an inadvertent way. And so I think, I think, you know, Delro Lindo wasn't in with a shout before. I think he's the front runner now. Really? Yeah, yeah. And so I think all that has sort of given it the edge. And because, as I say, it happened just as sort of voting was closing in. It's sort of newly relevant. I mean, one of the interesting things this year you've also had is in these the trade magazine site variety, they run these brutally honest Oscar ballots where Oscar voters reveal what they've actually voted for anonymously. Right. And all of them, or practically all of them, have said, "I think one battle will win, best picture." And I think Paul Thomas Anderson will win, best director. So I voted for sinners and Ryan Coaches. So it sounds like it's going to be very close, but it could be a really good night for sinners. I mean, there have been these obvious people who've been on these major PR campaigns, Timothy Shalame, Jesse Buckley, who is widely tipped to win best actress for Hamlet, which is nominated for nine awards. But I think this campaign perhaps more than others, or maybe not. Maybe it's always like this, does show the sort of real genuine risks of gaffes. So Timothy Shalame made these comments where he kind of dist the ballet and opera industries saying he was glad to work in film because it was still relevant. That has been met with justifiable anger for people working in those sectors, not least because it's an artist, you know, kind of seemingly punching down at other people in the arts industry. He did make those comments before voting as close, but quite late in the days. Does stuff like that really have an impact on how awards are given out on Sunday? Oh, yeah, 100%. I mean, if you think of something like the Amelia Peres controversy last year, where the sort of dreadful social media of the star was sort of unearthed. Oh, yeah, I mean, it can completely total your chances and had the opera thing come out a couple of days earlier. It absolutely would have touched your chances. Actually, I still think he's not going to get it because he's so marmite as a person. The voters are kind of looking for a way not to give it to him. Really? I think so. And he's also very young. Not even because he's a big, Gen Z star. It would bring in a younger audience for the contest. Well, that's absolutely right. He is. And he's sort of money. His movies make money. One, go, do you know things like that? And they want that because they want to be a bit relevant. And as you say, to appeal to a younger audience, but they do tend to err on the side of older people winning. So he's 13 hours. He'd be the second youngest ever if you want. Michael B Jordan is 39. That feels much more age-appropriate thing. I think he's polarising. And he's seen as a disruptor, like he does his own marketing stunts and all this. But it doesn't matter. And in the case of Jessie Buckley, it doesn't matter because there's no other content. So she has sort of hired the cat world or cat lovers by saying that when she met her boyfriend, she didn't like his cats. And that seemed to have exploded. And she was then forced to issue a public apology. Like, why? Yeah, I mean, to be fair to Jessie Buckley, it was partly-- I mean, the cats have to take some of the blame there, I think. Yeah, that's right. She said that they pood on her pillow. They were jealous. And I mean, I can imagine that that's true, that tracks the likes, but it's really annoying. Yeah, and I mean, I think-- and actually, in the same interview that that sort of originally emerged in, Paul Muscow said, fuck cats. So, you know-- And that hasn't done him-- But he's not nominating. He's not nominating. But he's still-- He's Teflon. He can say that kind of outrageous thing. But I think also a lot of people don't like cats. A lot of people are dog lovers. And Hollywood people do like dogs. Yeah, it's L.A. isn't it? It's much more dog-friendly. But I suppose what I think the point of this is that actually, it's a PR campaign type situation, isn't it, rather than about being the merits of the film, which is interesting. So, I mean, in your view, is the right film going to win this year? And are there really good films that have been completely overlooked? I don't-- I'm not a particular fan of either of those two films, actually. So, "Cinners of One Battle" after another? Yeah, I think "Cinners" is a bit of a soup, a bit of a genre soup, and it would do better sticking to one, although it is definitely sort of ambitious in a way that other films are not. "One Battle" didn't work for me at all. I find it-- I really love Paul Don Mousandeson. I just didn't like it at all. Oh, I loved it. I'm so sorry. We all wrong. They get it. But, yeah, I didn't-- I found what it-- you know, it said about Black women problematic. I found Sean Penn splashy and obvious. So, the interesting thing that has happened with this race, and particularly in the wake of the BAFTAs, actually, is that it's now a sort of tipping point, the Oscars are now a tipping point, and if they don't give it to "Cinners" now, and particularly if they don't give it to Ryan Kugler for "Best Director," it's a problem. It's a real problem. And, you know, the thing about Ryan Kugler is he's very eminently rewardable. Remember, no Black person has ever won "Best Director" at the Oscars, which is quite something. So, yeah. And, I mean, it would be a terrible look for them to give "Cinners" "Best Picture" and him not win "Best Director." That's happened before with Moonlight, and with 12 years of slave at Barry Jenkins, and Steve McQueen didn't win "Best Director." But with something like "Cinners," I think to not give "Best Director" would be terrible. The issue, for some people, is that Port Thomas Anderson has never won an Oscar, and that's obviously mad. But, he will win an Oscar this year, because he'll win "Best Adapted Screenplay," and he's still quite young. So, it will be all right. He'll win another one. But I think what has happened, sort of in a slightly surprising certain way, for something that now seems obvious, is that it will, the backlash to them, snobbing "Cinners" will be a big problem. Yeah. So, you did a Q&A, a live Q&A, with on the Guardian site earlier this week, and someone asked a really interesting question, which is that, "Why do film stars never actors, never thank their fans when they come up on stage?" And I suppose my follow-up question to that is, does that suggest that no one actually really cares about the Oscars? It's just people within the industry congratulating themselves, or do you think that's not true? I think, to some extent, that's true. It's certainly much more true now than it was 20 years ago, and 60 million people would watch the Oscars, because lots of people cared about Titanic, and lots of people went to see Titanic. The amount of my Titanic made, compared to, say, "No, Mad Land" in 2021, which won Best Picture, is quite, quite, you know, stock. So, there's that. Actors are very much more than, say, musicians or something like that. They're incredibly, garr d'es. They're incredibly on message. i'n gweithio'r fwy oeddwn i'n gweithio. Yn gweithio'r fwy oeddwn i'n gweithio wedi'r ysgwyrdd. Mae'r fwy oeddwn i'n gweithio wedi'r ysgwyrdd. Mae'n gweithio wedi'r ysgwyrdd. Mae'n gweithio wedi'r ysgwyrdd.