The AI Stock Nobody Understands

AI is not running out of GPUs. It's running out of electricity. Even Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Wong, has explicitly called energy the bottleneck for AI development. And the data centers behind the AI boom aren't only looking for cheap kilowatts, they're looking for a power source that can run 24/7 with no downtime, that can cool itself, that can plug straight into Nvidia's racks at 800 volts, and there's one company claiming it can do all of that. For the last 20 years, they've been quietly building tech that they say is perfect for this exact use case. Most investors still think it's a science project. Some think it's a bubble, and some investors think that their stock could be a 5x run-up from here. Today on Dummoney, we're going to break down the AI energy trade and why bloom energy could be the AI stock that nobody understands. This is Dummoney, why? Hey, Dave Herald, I'm Chris and Jordan. We are Dummoney. Welcome to Dummoney Live. Where to Chris and Jordan? There they are. It's been a quite a morning this morning. We're watching the stock market fall apart. Oh, quick reminder, if you haven't done it already, smash the like button, like the smash button. The almighty algorithm needs that. But yes, Chris Jordan, it is really remarkable that we all made it here this morning. We'll let our audience in a little behind the scenes magic here. The three of us were out together. IRL for the first time in a long time. We're at Chris's bar, a little reunion of the varsity team from our first startup company together. Fun times. Jordan, you were telling me how good you're feeling this morning? I had like five or six old fashions, I think. About four or two minutes. It's just like one is done and the next one comes. Let me tell you something. Jordan, I had three Heineken double zeroes. That's still awesome. Way smarter. I shouldn't do something like that. I'm supposed to go to a holiday thing tonight, too. And I'm like, oh, no, man. I don't know if I can. It is the season. Do they make any wine? Because that's, uh, I'm telling you, man, like I could have had a drink. But I just, I've gotten so accustomed to drinking. I'm here and I love feeling great in the morning. Well, that's the thing. I don't drink like at all during the week normally. But then the holidays come around. And it's like drinking event after drinking event. And then, oh, yeah. Yeah, to wait. All right. We did did did did. Let's get on track because people aren't here to hear about our after I left on my table. On our. No, no, that was that was a strat that was going on in our group chat. They were talking about the last time we got together. Yeah. And he and Miller spillered. So he didn't do it again. Okay, because I would have felt bad. He didn't do it again. No, he's he he replied that he was on his best behavior. Okay. I mean, did I Irish goodbye yesterday? Did I just bounce? I know me and Dave did. I, yeah, because I was like, I went to the restroom and I'm like, oh, I should order a lift and it showed up. And I'm like, well, we looked over and like half the group had kind of scattered. And we're like, this is, this is our queue. Let's let's go by the way. By the way, let me just state something right now. This, that was the first night ever that our group had turned the corner and people started going up. Has that ever happened before? Usually at least two thirds are going all night. That, that, that, that, that's shot. We were still getting texts at one in the morning. So I, I don't know what time the, the last, last dude fell. But I got home at 11 30. And I was like, I haven't gone to bed at 11 30. And like a decade. And when you get home at 11 30, you, you're a far uber ride. So yeah. Wait, are you saying that that 11 30 is late for you? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, I got a bed. I got a bed at 8 45 or 9 52. Are you serious? Dead serious. It's amazing. Oh, I, oh, I, I'm like 2 a.m. every night. Oh, no, I'm not out partying. But Dave, is art, is the video showing up on X? Like, why is it my, is, is this just an issue with my? It shows it is. Oh, it is. Okay. So, all right, forget about my, my bad. You should share this on your X. And if you're watching us on X, you should share it too. I, I just, here we are. I just shared, I just didn't want to share something that wasn't actually playing on your hair. And yeah, I did it. I just reposted it. All right. Here we go. And look, our art is going up as we speak. Blue energy, so let's, we've been talking about this for a while. We all know that the bottleneck is not GPUs, right? We all know that the bottleneck is, is energy. Like, that's like everyone saying it. And if you saw that chart that, that was floating around on X, where it's basically like, here is the US energy production ramp up. And then here's China, you know, it's like, we're behind in energy. And so we were trying to figure out what, what do we do? What, what, what stock might benefit from? Well, you can't, you can't catch up. Ro grid energy so fast, right? And I think that that's kind of a concern. Especially when you think of how long it takes to start up like nuclear power plant. If you want to deliver something somewhat clean, nuclear is really the way to go. But those projects can take decades to pan out. Yeah, Jordan, we've heard, we've heard a lot of rumors about, you know, chips that were purchased that can't be put to use. Data centers are behind energy definitely appears to be the primary bottleneck. The thermal load required for an AI data center are absolutely ridiculous. 20 to 30% of the power is just or cooling directs, okay? So like, not only do you need power for the GPUs, you need an additional 30% power just then to cool direct afterwards. It's absolutely insane. And kind of the go to power right now for a lot of these, a lot of these data centers or these gas turbines, right? But what's the biggest problem with the gas turbine? Like they go down about one to two hours a week, something like that. You can't just have enough gas turbines for your data center. You have to have redundancy. You have to have additional turbines, right? And there's a huge, like, back ordering. Yeah, there's that and they're not clean, right? So they're not giving you clean energy. It's really a big issue, but that said, it is the go to power source because it's a known entity. You know exactly what you're getting. It's not cheap. It's not ideal, but it works and you're not going to get a whole lot of surprises from it. So then you have bloom energy and this is a fuel cell. I think a lot of people don't even understand what the hell a fuel cell is, but it's essentially a way that I had no idea what a fuel cell is and how you can just like plug a box in and it just starts generating its own electricity. It's just a chemical reaction. So it's like a chemical reaction to the output is electricity. So it's the easiest way to go into it without getting into chemistry, but just say it's a chemical reaction. It's just magic. So Jordan, when you agree that essentially instead of combusting natural gas, it's taking the natural gas and the chemical reaction is turning that into energy. How does that correct, right? And you know, getting any of the pollutants that way, these fuel cells last what, about six years and you just get a, it's a much cleaner process and more efficient, by the way, than using a gas turbine. And unlike the turbines that go down for a couple hours every day, these go down a couple hours every year and you only have to refresh them, like put new fuel in. They count the downtime in minutes. Yeah, so the uptime is 99.99% supposedly. So like one to two hours a year and the input is essentially the same. It's natural gas and air, right? And the output, and we'll talk about this later, the output is 800 volt DC power. And one other interesting tidbit about this is you get a byproduct, which is 400 degrees Celsius exhaust heat. And that exhaust heat, I don't know exactly how this works, but I guess the exhaust heat is then used to help fuel the absorption chillers, which, which, which, which actually helps. Somehow, it's then converted into a cooling system so that the, the data center can use it to actually help cool itself. So it's a power source that generates heat that then can be used to cool. And to me, it's like that science picture. The cooling effect, which is a really interesting data point here, is 25%. Right? So those absorption chillers reduces the cooling overhead costs by 25%. Excuse me, from 25% to 5% temperature. So basically instead of, you now, you now only need an additional 5% to 10% of energy for cooling as opposed to the close to 30% additional energy for cooling that you needed before with the more traditional gas turbines. So the big rub though on this type of energy on bloom is that if you just look at it simply, it's, it is more expensive. This is an, this is an energy product that they've been working on for two decades now. And, well, yeah, so it's more expensive, but especially from like a CapEx perspective, because there's a large upfront cost to this. Yeah. Yeah. So I think the CapEx Jordan on the upfront is just looking at the bloom energy box as opposed to like the turbines. It's 20 to 30% more expensive than gas turbines. But this is where the misunderstanding comes in, okay? Because I think most investors these days, I had said, are a little lazy. They just kind of look at the top line, right? And so everyone's like, oh, it's, it's more expensive. And then they don't dig into the fact that this, just that cooling element alone is a huge savings. And apparently, you know, this, you mentioned the 800 volt DC power, which is unlike traditional electricity, which is AC that has to be converted to DC. And, you know, it basically generates the thing that our chips need. And they didn't intentionally develop this for AI, but it just happens to work out that it's kind of exactly what computer data centers need. You're exactly right, Dave. So basically because they have this weird direct to rack 800 volt DC system that is completely by chance. They don't have to have any medium voltage transformers, okay? No UPS, battery farms, the AC to DC conversion stages, add a tremendous amount of cost. So Oracle, which is like their first big hyper scale or customer, which is part of the reason why bloom energy is trading down because Oracle is in the dump. So it kind of just trades down with Oracle because that's kind of the big initial hyper scale or Oracle has come out and basically said that they estimate that they're saving $1.5 million per megawatt in CapEx. Once you account for the lack of redundancy that they don't need to have anymore, as opposed to gas turbines, the cooling savings. Remember, because they're bringing those that cooling extra energy down from 25 or 30% down to 10 to 15%. So they're cutting that in half. The direct to rack at 800 volt is saving all kinds of money with transformers and wiring and it's just a more compact setup. So they're removing a lot of the energy infrastructure when they install bloom box. So when you consider all of that, it's actually 10 to 20% cheaper all-in, all-in, okay? So and that's the thing that's really misunderstood. But then on top of that, and again, this is super misunderstood, gas turbines have barely changed in 30 years, okay? So this is on more of like a technology chip, you know, innovation cycle. So the bloom energy technology is constantly getting better and more efficient. So every few years, they're bringing additional efficiencies, right? So unlike a gas turbine, if you move out six, seven, eight, nine years, it just continues to get more efficient every couple of years, which is not something that we're accustomed to with like a gas turbine or conventional energy models, maybe with solar to some extent, right? We've seen some of that. But once you kind of put all that together, it's really not only is bloom energy, and we didn't talk about this. The big reason, the big attraction for a bloom energy box is its speed to compute, right? So if you get a bloom energy box, you can speed up the build-out of your data center by many, many, many months. It could be six months, 12 months time savings. So they already have the speed to compute. They have more cap acts in some ways on the front end, but ultimately they end up saving you money in the long term. So and essentially as much as they could produce of these bloom boxes over the next few years, you could theoretically put out a thesis that says that their growth should be near infinite only cap by their ability to actually manufacture boxes, which I think realistically they could double their capacity more or less every year, you know, going out the next four, five, six years. So we're going to present a thesis here that is not our thesis. This is actually was one of our friends, Shion Chu, that a lot of our initial bloom research was sourced by. We're not financial advisors, right? We've said that many times. We're just sharing something with you that was shared with us over the past few months. We've taken many meetings done a lot of research on this ourselves, and I personally feel that this is one of the most interesting misunderstood AI plays, even though the stock is up 5x, right? Since the beginning of the summer, which is where a lot of the people on our group started investing in bloom energy. But by the way, that 5x move was not really encompassing all of the theoretical growth in AI data centers for bloom. It was really more of a hey, this company was kind of in the dumps, and now you have this AI wave, and you have some proof that their technology is viable and working with some of the early deals that they secure. That's kind of why this stock went up 5x. In my opinion, by no means measures out what is possible for bloom energy over the next two to five years. So there is a thesis that bloom energy could, what, 5x, maybe even 6x, over the next few years, purely based on conventional multiples and expected earnings growth if bloom energy simply executes on their plan over the next few years. Now, analysts are not openly putting those numbers out there, right? Because they just seem outlandish. Also, bloom energy is a company that has disappointed for 20 years. This has been like a developmental stage company that has continued to throw out investors and analysts love to hate. Yes, absolutely. And probably for good reason, right? I mean, it's been a long time for bloom energy to just lock their way into a use case. I mean, and that's the crazy thing. Well, the other thing about I was thinking about is that, you know, I think people have mentioned what about, you know, on-site nuclear. Look, that's a great option. I love the SMR, small module reactor concept, but that stuff takes time, right? It takes regulations. It takes, you know, they're just not, they're not operationally ready the way that bloom energy can just come in and deploy. Jordan, look how long fuel cells have taken with them. You're trying to look at a 25-year story. Yes, for bloom energy, right? So, you know, it just takes time, right? And the good thing about bloom energy is that they can work side by side with grid power or I'm sure with, you know, a small module nuclear reactor. So, look, are they going to be everything for data centers? Maybe not, but they'll definitely be in the mix of power that you use. And I think we skipped over this part of the story, but for anyone following Nvidia and their next generation architecture, it's entirely based on output voltage, which is 800 DC. And it just happens to be exactly what bloom energy can deliver, right? Like right out of the box. So, this is just pure circumstantial luck. And that is really the cornerstone of the entire narrative the next few years in that, and I personally think there's a high likelihood that at some point in the next year, we see some interesting partnership, maybe even an investment coming from Nvidia. So far, because listen, bloom energy only helps in video, right? Because they are perfectly geared to power up their next generation racks. So far, the biggest investment that was made recently in bloom energy was by Oracle. I don't know. Do we have the numbers, the stats here on how much Oracle invested? I think it was a conversion at $108 a share, but it was a mega, mega large investment by Oracle into bloom energy. And it just shows how much faith Oracle has in the technology. And they've been the most aggressive in terms of being the first hyperscale or to say, hey, we're going with these bloom boxes. None of the, you know, the feedback that we're getting from institutional Wall Street is that the other hyperscalers are all interested, but nobody wants to be first. So they're like, let's see how this goes with Oracle. And if this goes well, also open AI. So it's Oracle and essentially open AI. If it goes well, I believe that Google is powering their mountain view facility with bloom energy boxes, I believe. So I also believe that there is an Nvidia multiple Nvidia offices that are powered by bloom boxes. So there's there are numerous potential future events that could propel the validation of bloom in the marketplace that I think are likely to unfold over the course of the next year. But why don't we just talk about the actual math? Okay, for a minute, if we talk about the math, we have global new natural gas generation is about 100 gigawatts a year, right? So let's say about 50% of that becomes AI driven. That's 50 gigawatts a year. It bloom energy wins 10 to 20% of that. That's about five to 10 gigawatts a year. Okay. So that said, the, let's look at the revenue for earnings math bloom energy earns roughly three and a half to four million dollars of revenue per megawatt installed. Plus you have a 10% annual revenue service contract that will be locked in for decades for everything that they install as part of their servicing. So they get an additional 10% over that annualized. If they're able to hit the 10 gigawatts annual install by 2030, which I believe they can, the conservative model puts them at about 20 dollars earning per share, the aggressive model, which includes some non AI markets could put them anywhere between 30 and 40 dollars earnings per share. Now a lot of the mission critical infrastructure will trade at 25 to 30 X earnings. And that would basically put the stock at five to 600 dollars. Okay, at a $30 per share earnings multiple, you're looking at maybe even $800 plus for bloom. So that, that is the bull case on bloom. There is a bull case here that ranges from five to $800. And all it takes is for them to actually execute on the plan and meet the demand that is out there for energy with bloom boxes. Okay, so by no means that they need to dominate the sector. They just need to be a participant in the sector for that to happen. But why is the market not that valuing them? There's a bear. There's a lot of bear cases. Well, you guys want to talk about some of the bear cases. Yeah. And we've seen, we've seen a huge run up in the stock and it's pulled back recently and it's down big today. But it was up big yesterday. So it's like it's one of those very volatile stocks. It's not a huge market cap. And it moves. And it's, you know, it's off of its highs. But if you look at that run up, it's it was a dramatic run up since summer. So bear case number one, it's the big one. It's the bear case for all the AI stocks. AI is in a bubble. Yeah, it's the bear case that isn't just this stock. It's, it's what Michael Burry is worrying about. It's, you know, we're in an AI bubble, right? Yeah. So, and I don't think we are. I think that, you know, we are as fast as we can build and deliver AI, both on the chip GPU side and on the power generation. And we'll use all of it we can get. We talked about this in our last episode. We talked about delivering, right? I currently do not own any options. Period. I own not a single option. That said, I did own some about an hour before the show, but I sold them all. So as of right now, I have no, I have no options. Okay. And I do have leverage, but even my leverage is hovering around. Let's call it 50%. I think it's around right around 50%. You know, 50% leverage from me is low. 100% as high 70 to 80% is norm. So I am, I have no options and only 50% margin leverage on my account. The reason for that is we are in this period of time where we're going to have a lot of volatility. And it's really hard to kind of get any sort of conviction around how investors are going to react day in, day out to the news cycle. There's a lot of nervousness out there. So I think it's, this is the time to kind of pick your longer term winners. And not be super concerned about trying to predict a short term movement in price of any of those stocks. But AI is a bubble is not something that I'm concerned about. You know, you guys know that the AI trade is going to be my trade. It has been for two and a half years. It will be for the next two and a half years. So I'm just going to like check that on both the GPU side and the power side. There's there's plenty of demand and that demand I think will only increase. Well, those guys are spending. I mean, they're building data centers, right? And they have to be powered. That's all right. You nailed it. That brings us to fair case number two though that bloom. Yeah. Chris? Yeah. So so the bloom has no real demand because it's a company that has never they basically never meet what they say is going to happen. Right. So they put out these the history of missing expectations. Yeah. And that's a real concern. So we do have people that are friends of ours that have dug into the supply chain in China. And we have at least our Intel is telling us that bloom energy has already booked all of their supply chain for 1.3 gigawatts in 2026. So there is a degree of confidence that I have that they have the supply chain sewn up and are going to deliver 1.3 gigawatts in 2026. Okay. Hyperscalers are privately confirming that they that bloom is cost competitive when you factor in all of the advantages. Okay. But again, they're all kind of waiting on Oracle open AI to be the first adopters. But I like that. I like that because it means their bloom is conversing with all the hyperscalers. Right. So it's like these other deals are just ready to get announced. We don't know when they're coming, but I think there will be other hyperscalers deals announced over the course of the next year. So I like that not all the good news is currently visible to the market at large. Bearcase 3. This is a this is a fun one. Dude, these shortsellers, man. They will say anything. They will find they will find something to put out their short report and then play the stock on the way down. Yeah. So there's a company. There's a short fund out of like Puerto Rico is a Puerto Rico, I think that says that Scandinian there's a Scandinian shortage and that's going to kill their ability to scale at bloom. Okay. So the bloom fuel cell requires a rare earth called Scandinian that essentially only comes out of China. Initial like for the last so many years, you can only get out of China. Jordan, do you know anything about this? Scandium. That's how you say it, but, yeah. Okay. Scandium. Sounds like a Scandium to me. So the short report says and the short report actually has like a low medium high prediction for bloom and the low I think is zero. I bet the company's going to zero. I love this stuff though. This is great. You want to have there's two sides to a market and unless you have this side, there's no upside, right? Because you have to have, you just have to have a balance in terms of how the market's looking at it at a company. So they're basically saying that they have calculated the amount of Scandinium that is needed, that bloom has historically used. Yeah. For how much? In order to build one fuel cell, they tried to, you know, back do the math to figure out how much of the Scandium was needed. It's like 15 kilograms. 15 kilograms per fuel cell. And then they have calculated bloom's projections on growth. And they called the Scandium sourcing company in China and said, can you increase the amount of shipments of Scandium by this much to support that growth every year? And they said, absolutely not. They can't do it. They can't do it. So the short report's like, this is a scandal, but bloom energy. It's a Scandium. But if you look at the footnote of where they got that information, where was it? It was like some like unreliable, well, hold on. Our research and our partner's research is that it appears that that 15 kilogram per fuel cell. It appears that that is sourced from a debunked 2010 student estimate. That's our research, okay? Yeah. Now, bloom energy has also come out and said that their usage is 20 to 40 x lower than that. Why? Because that was a long time ago, first of all, when they were just initially developing the technology, they needed more Scandium and they've become more efficient, but nobody watching the stock has like done a revision to what they, you know, the whole calculus of Scandium in fuel cell out. Yes. And that there, and that there only represents like 5, 100 to 1% of the cost of good salt, okay, is the Scandium. But also they've been procuring Scandium for a long time. And they have like some really large runway. I don't know what the exact number is. Yes. So they have been supposedly stockpiling Scandium for the past decade, because their use require Metascandium is meaningfully lower than this short report claims it is. Therefore, rather than using the Scandium every year, they've just been stockpiling it. In addition to stockpiling the Scandium and having a lower requirement for Scandium by a factor of 20 to 40 x, they also claim to be getting new supply Scandium now out of Australia and New Zealand beginning in 2028. So there's a lot more to the Scandium story than is being reported by this short seller if you were to do your own research and then also listen to Bloom Energy. So, but again, it's part of the short, it's one of the many short thesis on Bloom, which results in the volatility that we're constantly seeing on Bloom Energy. Okay. Now how about New Tech? This is a good one. And there's part of the story just emerged this week. But like I think the New Tech that people were about like linear generators, right? And those are general uses. Peacers, not aseload, right? For energy on these hyperscalers. But I think again, the thing that no one appreciates is the hyperscalers are not going to just adopt a brand new, unproven technology for a data center that costs billions, tens of billions of dollars, right? That needs to run 24 hours a day. I heard a quote today. I was listening to, I don't remember what his role is at Bloom, but he's the higher up at Bloom. And he said that data center, people that design data centers love new technology as long as it's a decade old. And that's about when they start getting traction in the data center. Jordan, you just nailed it. You just nailed it. And that's something that really nobody really appreciates is that even with Bloom Energy, and they've been around for a few decades, and they actually have their Bloom boxes out there and working, right? Like at this level of scale, they're still concerned with fuel cells, even as a multi-decade old technology that's been improving. So when you're talking about a brand new technology, people are just totally getting ahead of themselves. And on that note, let's talk about space data centers, okay? Because like, this came out in nowhere this week. This is like for me, this was the craziest thing. First, you see a news story about about SpaceX, potentially IPO, right? In the next year. Within a matter of days of that story coming out, there's now all these stories coming out about space data centers. This is the future. It's freaking insane. Will there potentially be data centers in space one day? Yeah, absolutely. Probably, I would say there will probably be data centers in space one day. Yeah, but any time like this is something that's a pie in the sky, there's no designs currently available that can dissipate heat the way that you would need to. It just doesn't exist. So when I just made the joke about that data centers love technology that's a decade old, there's zero technology that's any years old to be able to run a data center in space right now. So I'll just say this when it sounds like it sounds like a perfect solution because you have unlimited solar and automatic cooling and like you don't get automatic cooling. You have zero cooling days. But we also have to like ship it out on a spaceship. Yeah, even cooling is a big problem because you can't you have no atoms that bounce things off of. So you can't you literally can't cool anything. Well, you can radiate heat to infrared is probably the only way. So you'd have to have some system to then convert, you know, actual heat to infrared and then you can leak that. You have to have a large radiate or like radiated cooling, right? And so like there will be a solution. Yeah, they will engineer a solution at some point, but that solution hasn't been engineered yet. Okay, so here's the big thing about it. Just give me a lot of decade. He'll figure it out. But and tell them and then and then another decade. Here's the thing. I think everybody can agree that it's likely that we'll we'll see data centers in space at some point. The big question. It always comes down to one thing, guys. Timeline timeline. Full scalable data centers are not designed for space today at full scale. There are numerous questions, numerous issues. They're all solvable on paper. It's really interesting. If you can solve some of these problems, you can have a hyper efficient data center in space. But but the people that I've spoken to and people that I trust have spoken to, the consensus is that you will see initial deployments in the 2030s. But the realistic timeframe for hyper scale clusters that are economically competitive with those on earth in space is likely to be 2040s. Okay, you need the launch costs to fall significantly today for Starship. Okay, to get that done, you will likely also need to have some type of space robotics, maybe humanoids in space for maintenance of the data centers, the chips cooling systems, electrical system supply chain, all need to get built tested and optimize better for space. Okay, all that stuff has been built and optimized for earth over the past 70 years. So you know, there's a thesis that unless we're really running out of power here, yes, it makes sense to work on space data centers. There will be a need for it. But I think the timelines are totally skewed. Like everything else that comes out of you wants. He's a visionary, but it takes time to get to that vision. Yeah, yeah, no, exactly. And he's he hasn't put a timeline on this. He's he's saying, this is possible. This is this is going to happen. But we'll just have to wait and see how long it takes. Yeah. And anytime we see a, you know, kind of a short thesis, usually one of the short thesis is always about competition and emerging technology. Like we hear about it. Yes, there will always be emerging technology that will displace the thing that we're talking about. Obviously. And if we do get space data centers and all data AI moves into space at some point, yeah, solar will likely be powering most of that and or nuclear up in space. But that's not a problem for today. And it's not something that I'm concerned about today as a bloom energy investor. The next bear case is we already kind of discussed this bloom as a terrible 25 year track record. Totally agree. There's no denying that that that is a big problem. But again, this is finally found the right use. Right? So it's just, you know, yeah. And even if you look at their website, they're they're existing use cases are things like they, you know, that a Walmart with batteries, not batteries, but fuel cells on it, like there was not really a need for a Walmart to have batteries. I mean, it's great for redundancy maybe, but they're already on the grid, right? Yeah, there's something grid, right? I mean, there's no reason to have that to add to the capex of building one of these, you know, Wal-Mart's when or part of this one thing with the grid. Again, if you're a bloom energy and you could draft out your dream scenario to fall in your lab, it would be the AI data center, right? Yeah. This just came out of nowhere and and it's absolutely well. Now the stock that GPUs are moving towards higher voltage, right? Now it's all like our existing is what a 48 volt system and it just they're they're moving to this higher volt system that bloom has had been developing anyway. It's not like they knew what they were doing. They just happened to be developing that as the output. Yeah. The last bear case, they we've discussed already the stocks run 5x. The thesis here, the counter narrative is that most of that move was just a repricing based on solvency and legitimacy, not being dominant as part of future the future AI energy super cycle. So the option volatility is still extraordinarily high on bloom energy, which tells us that the market is unsure about this company. They are not you for it. Okay. So this is still a company that has probably an equal to larger number of bears and bear case narratives going around it than bullish narratives. Yeah. The options market just tell us that there's going to be there's going to continue to be large moves in the stock. Yeah. But again, I look but but this is this is the type of investment where you want to dig in. The reason why we're sharing all of this with you today is this is an idea that we want you guys to dig in on because we are in a super cycle. A lot of these stocks have run. We've just laid out a thesis that could theoretically pave a way for a 5 to 6x on this stock over the next few years, but it's not our job to poke holes in the thesis now. Like I really want everyone in the community to do their own homework on bloom. The one thing that I will say with very high conviction is that this is a company that is worthy of the research. It's worth your time to teach yourself about the risk factors and what is real. Where is the ground truth in bloom energy? Because if you could get conviction on what the ground truth is, this could be I think moving forward the next couple of years. One of the most interesting AI trades. Again, we did our homework. We're we're totally fine taking on the risk, but you should not until you do your own homework on this stock. There is a lot to learn when it comes to fuel cell technology, but because there's so many questions because there's so many doubters, that's where the opportunity is, is figuring out, do they actually have a good bear case or is it just fear and misunderstanding? Because if it's misunderstanding and just fear and just bias based on a company that's made a lot of mistakes in the past, if that's true, then this is a massive opportunity. But if it's if it's correct, then maybe not. Go ahead. There was another there was another negative in the G the ticker symbol G-E-V-G-E Verona announced that they were going to create data center fuel cells the other day and the stock and the stock went down like eight percent that day. Then it went out eight now it's down 10. But if you read a little closer, you know, it was just they've got plans, right? And in the plans call for maybe like a 20, 28 or later launch date on some of those products and they're not going to work the exact same way that blue and energy is this product does. So that's fine. That's totally fine. It'd compensate more companies. I think what it does is it invalidates the use case for blue and energy, right? Because we know that blue and energy is not going to be a hundred percent of the mix, right? But they're going to be in the mix. How are solutions EU for a data center? I think it's really important to assess how institutional wall street is looking at a stock and you know, and speaking with our friends in the space, the intel that we got back is that there's an analyst gap on blue and energy and what we mean by that is most of the tech analyst on wall street or ignoring blue energy because historically, it's an industrial company and industrial analysts generally don't buy the AI demand forecast. So the type of analysts that would cover bloom aren't generally ultra long on AI and AI analyses. So the tech analysts don't really understand it and they don't cover it because it's an industrial. There's really no incentive for cell side shops to cover mid cap power tech because the way that wall street works when you're a cell side shop is you get compensated based on the volume of interest, the volume of calls that you get, right? And there's very low commission revenue with mid cap power tech because generally, the buy side doesn't care that much about it, right? You also have institutional PTSD from decades of over promising. You have crazy high volatility on this stock going up and down 10%, that scares away all the risk managed funds. So like there's a lot going on there, which is why you haven't really seen wall street kind of go all in on bloom energy. It makes a lot of sense. That said, I guess the IR head who's an ex citadel portfolio manager is been I think rumor is he's been buying stock. I guess in the 90s oracle bought $480 million of bloom energy recently via strategic investment at $108 conversion price. But oracles in the dumps and that doesn't prove to be a point of validity because it's oracle and everybody hates oracle right now. So again, this is this all makes sense. The stock is sits in like a no man's land where retail institutional and analysts all misunderstand the thesis and but that's what you want as an investor. You want a stock where there's misunderstanding. You want a stock where there are a handful of short bear thesis that are circulating to to to install doubt in the investor base because if you're able to disprove them to yourself, then that that's alpha, right? That's edge. So yeah, I think that's I think that's that's pretty much yet. So so what did bottom line we a lot of information. What is what is the trade? How are you playing this? Again, not financial advice for anyone you do you do your own research, but after all of the research you've done, what are you what are you looking at Chris? Yeah, so so I have a large position in bloom energy and it's an equity position. I I was invested in options in the past. I don't currently hold options in bloom because I just day in and day out there could be news that destroys bloom, right? And so if bloom gets hit meaningfully and the the underlying information that I care about hasn't changed, I'm likely to increase the size of my position. Right now it's probably a top five position for me. Really? I bought a position too, but it's it's top 10. Yeah, so you know that that's where I said, I think that this is a is like a 12 month trade maybe longer. I think a lot of the information kind of like when I talked about Robinhood a year ago and Palantir a year ago, they were really misunderstood stocks and I could be totally off here, but I think a lot of the misunderstanding and bloom will hopefully get worked out over the next year. And I think of that happens. We should see a repricing in this stock to more fully appreciate what appears to be you know fairly obvious earnings growth over the next two to three years. That is substantial. Yeah, so but there could be bumps. If there's huge bumps in the AI cycle, bloom could get hit. Okay, I could see the stock continue to get hit and fall. And this is the super volatile stock anyway, even when there's no news at all the stock swings 10 or 20%. It's it's not it's not for the faint of heart. Like I woke up this morning and in my position was down 10%. No, but it was up 8% yesterday. It's like what it's one of those stocks that you don't for me. I'm not going to look at it every day. Could could could I lose 50% of my bloom position? Absolutely. Could I make 4x in my bloom position? I think I'm more likely to make a 4x on this than to lose 50% and that's why I'm invested. It's a risk reward play. I've done a lot of homework. We have a close friend who has done probably 50 plus hours of deep research on bloom. It's like his number one position. We took a meeting with him. By the way, that that was so impressive. We had a zoom call with him and the amount of information he gave us in an hour was hopefully as much as information as we've given you in this past hour, but it was kind of amazing to see the way his mind works on this stuff. Guys, did he send us an updated research brief that we can share with the community on bloom? I felt like he texted us one. If you did, yeah, how can we share that? What we need to do is put it in our discord server, done money.tv/discord the way to get an invite to that. It's absolutely free. If anyone ever asks you for any money saying that there is, it's not us. Don't ever send any money to anyone on the internet. Yeah, but money.tv/discord completely free. Yeah, we don't charge one penny for anything and we don't manage your money. If anyone ever asks you to wire them money or sign up for a course or anything, anything, anything other than a dumb money sweatshirt, which could be us. You don't want to ask you. We put it on our website. It's not us. So, yeah, man, like you have to ask yourself, do you think AI-powered demand is real? Do you think it's over-hyped? I'm going to say it's real. Do we all agree on that? Like the power demand for AI is not over-hyped. It is absolutely real and is not going away, correct? And then I think if you can wrap your head around that question, this becomes a really interesting piece of the story. So, yeah, man, that's it. That's blue energy. That's blue energy. What else is going on? Take a symbol, be any for the people who are asking in the chat. Yeah. Actually, I have a new, don't even have a show pulled up here. Any other topics we want to hit? Guys, any questions? People are asking us, a lot of people are screaming TAC at us. TAC. What's going on with TAC? Let's see. Well, it's been down flat over the past few weeks. Yeah, I mean, they're at the 14. This is what I like. This is what I want. I have theoretically some more money coming to me in the next few weeks. And, you know, TAC is one of the companies I would deploy it to if it's down here in the $14 area when I get that cash. So, yeah, nothing's changed. Nothing at all has changed on our TAC thesis. We think data centers are going to Canada. We think TAC is a primary beneficiary of that. It's a junky company. Maybe they'll screw it up. They seem to screw up everything. But hopefully, hopefully, a little power company seemed to have like a bad track record that were hoping for the best of this time around. Maybe they could fix it. I'm going to give TAC a few months. They delayed the announcement of their partner for Canada. I think that news is coming. I would imagine that over the course of the next few months, we'll get more visibility in the TAC. And I just like the risk of war. I think there's more. There's more likelihood that the news flow basically tells us what we've been thinking, which is that they're going to have a multi-year run of demand based on AI centers in Canada. So, it's a very simple thesis. That's all there's to it. But yeah, nothing has really changed. In fact, honestly, nothing has really changed with any of my AI trades for the most part. I don't think anything's changed. I just, I don't even keep up the news cycle. I refuse to spend more than maybe 15 to 20 minutes a day, kind of reviewing the latest AI, fun and hype and news. It just seems like it's rotating every few days. People are overthinking everything right now. You watched that one dude on YouTube that gives an eight-minute summary every day of everything you need to know about AI's, you know, the what has changed in the past 24 hours. That's all you need to do. That's it. You don't need to spend three hours debating people on X as to whether the AI cycles about to completely fall apart. If burry is right or burry is wrong. I mean, guys, if that's what you're doing with your time, you are completely wasting your life, first of all, but it's not going to contribute to any alpha in the market. It's just not. That's not what you should be doing. Stop arguing with people on the internet. Yeah. Or even paying attention to other people's arguments because truthfully, nobody knows exactly how this is going to play out. In the short term, why do you even care? So I'm not obsessing over that stuff like I was the last year when there were actually meaningful opportunities to kind of trade short term. These AI stocks, I think they've become too volatile and too unpredictable right now to trade them short term. Yeah. So by the way, I love that because now that I don't have to think about that anymore, I'm a lot more relaxed. I have more time now to do real things, real research. By the way, I'm really behind on my social arb retail research. I have a few guys from the community helping me with it. And I hope to have some really good takeaways from the holiday shopping season next week. So maybe we can do like an old school, we might hear about something retail brands. And here's what we're seeing in the social arb data, not as a negative and whether there's any. Just kind of a laundry list of retail and what we're seeing in the data. Yeah. I mean, I always do that next week. Did you see Lulu yesterday? No, I didn't. Ah, they pop like 20%. Man. What? Yeah. Yeah, dude. I was too early. I was too early. Oh, wow. I was way too early. Yeah. Well, you were definitely early. If you look at the one year chart, you're you've still lost a lot of money. Hey, well, no, I would, I'm out of Lulu. Like, I was even I was in it. Yeah, because of the data issues, the darn data issues, I couldn't gain conviction around it. So like, I'm not winning anything today on Lulu. I don't think I have Lulu, even in my retirement account. So like, but whatever, whatever, man, I have done so much research on orders, the quarters that trend. And so we'll talk about the quarters of trend next week. And if there are actually any holiday season beneficiaries of it or not, I already know which thumbnail we're using for that one. Oh, dude. We're doing a selfie. Oh, my God. Jordan, did you see what Dave did to myself? You know, I removed the selfie, I think. Well, I saved it and sent it through the Grock video creation engine. It created the funniest. You need to you need to check out. If you deleted it, maybe I think I was just a reply to your. So I don't know if it's still. Is that mean even yours is gone? Wait, I think so. I'll find it. It's still on my camera. We'll show it during the show. No, no, it's there. It's there. I didn't delete it. I thought I was contemplating. Why? I just don't like this. What? I'm not in focus. Like my auto focus is not you're you're out too late last night. Everything, this is this is what real life looks like to you. It's like you can't see my eyes. I don't know what's going on, Dave. What's wrong with my camera? I'm guessing. Let me just pull up your full screen here. Oh, also guys. Fear, man. Spear. Dude, did you see it? 98 bucks a share. Jordan, it thinks that that globe behind you is your head. You need to put a hat on the globe. Yeah, there we go. It really got me. 90, 91 dollars a share spear today. For everybody in the community that is still in spear, I sold, I sold out it like 78. I think I think Graham got out to around the same price that I did or maybe he kept some because he was the one that got me in this thing. I owed all of this, all of it to him. But dude, it's at 91 dollars a share. It is. And ironically, my wife just texted me like before the show with some bad news that the tickets to Backstreet Boys at spear that we're buying are like 1300 dollars a ticket. I'm like 1300 dollars a ticket. Are you freaking kidding me? But you're still doing it. Who do they think they are? Taylor Swift? What's going on here? Oh, for Backstreet Boys, that's absolutely insane. You'll have a great time anyway. You won't even care about that money once you once you see. So like I'm so upset I got out. I think of a Backstreet Boys song to sing to you right now. But so wait, the next rumor on spear is that they might get Star Wars. Okay. And that would be Star Wars. A craft spear. Yeah. Dude, that would be insane. That would be insane. It could go to 150 if they had Star Wars and spear. I don't know why I sold. I just I needed some liquidity. I felt guilty about having too much leverage in my account. And I started pulling back on everything. And I'm like, dude, I crushed this spear trade so hard. I like, I just need to take my winnings and goaks. I didn't have time to like re-research what's going on. You're just happy. You got out. But anyway, we'll plan a show for next week. And it should be good. All right. Retail holiday retail show next week, guys. All right. We'll see you then. We're done money. And I have a good weekend. [Music]