The 13 Unwritten Rules of Winning Your 2026 Fantasy Draft | Advanced Roster Construction Strategy (Ep. 2088)

Hello everybody welcome into the fantasy pros football podcast. I'm Ryan warmly joined my Derek Brown and by Jake Cele from the athletic lots of shows together this week guys So I feel like I've seen you a bunch. I already know that you guys are doing well You guys already know that I'm wasn't doing well, but do a little bit better now that I got a portable AC unit in my house I could survive the heat a little bit better. It was 87 degrees last night. We already talked about this yesterday So I don't pour anybody with any more details It was a struggle though, so thankfully doing a little bit better now that I have a temporary portable AC Unit here today we are talking about some unwritten rules to winning 2026 drafts Although I guess they are now written because we wrote them down into the sheet But generally just kind of rules that we want to live by when drafting this year at less about specific players and more about just general Approaches and philosophies and like I said rules we're going to kind of abide by Reminder for everybody all of our 2026 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasy pros.com/rankings We've broken this down by different stages of the draft so we have a couple for the early rounds a couple for the mid to late rounds And then sort of one golden rule that we don't want to get off of you guys have two for each of these I have one for each of these so got a lot to get through we'll go ahead and start right now D-Bro What is your first tip for the early rounds? Man, I think like especially in the year of our Lord where running back running back is the premier start for a lot of people Because the age of the running back is back My first rule is you can walk out of the first five rounds with only two running backs now in a lot of and again When we give these blanket kind of rules a lot of people are like that's not actionable Like what am I supposed to do with that like I understand a lot of people are gonna start their drafts running back running back But I think it's just as feasible to start with two wide receivers I know that's blasphemy this year and everybody is all in on running backs But if you're going to start out with two wide receivers I think it's possible and easy to catch up but running backs and rounds three through five or go premium tight in like Wide receiver wide receiver and then tied in and I'll even give you some targets in round three of the two guys I'll be targeting breeze hall and Javante Williams round four camp Scatiboo and David Montgomery Round five DeAndre Swift and Basel Tutton and I think that Looking at different team builds and being flexible to the room while also addressing running back is paramount Yeah, Jake, what do you think about this when you're thinking about the early rounds? How much are you thinking specifically about? I want to hit these positions. I want to hit two running backs or one or zero or or I want to get X number of receivers Positionally, what's your thought in these early rounds as you build out the foundations of your team? Yeah, I couldn't agree more and I don't want to say I hate this question because I hate like I don't want you to ask me this Not you the people listening. It's not that I hate that you ask me this. I hate it because of where your thought process is going when people say Hey, I plan to take blank and blank in the first two rounds. What should I do in round three? And that's the reason I hate it is because you're doing yourself a disservice You don't know how the draft is gonna fall to you and by having what D.B. Rost talked about too is like a predetermined strategy of like I got to get my running back in round three and then you throw away potential huge value on the board because you had this preset strategy of like What you need to do what how you expected the draft to fall and I feel like that's one of the biggest traps people see and like you know for people who might be cubie early Which is okay, but they're like oh, I need to go and I look at drafts and people send me this and like hey week one I'm struggling. I'm like what rounds did you skip the first two rounds and I'm not saying like again I'm not trying to be a jerk. It's just it's because they went in with a strategy They overdraft that are running back they overdraft at a quarterback and then by the time you get to it You actually have no values on your roster Yeah, and I do agree with you. I've asked the question because I know it's something that it's a question I get a lot from you know listeners I've obviously you do too which why asked it to you but I'm very much on the same page with you as I don't like things through that mindset Although I will say you know I was planning to do my tip in each of these sections at the end I'm actually gonna do mine for this early rounds now because it ties in a little Mine is wide receiver isn't as deep as its reputation So get some building blocks early. It's not as specific as you need to get X number of receivers in X number of early rounds But more just don't go in thinking well wide receivers always crazy deep It's it's never not deep and it is deep I just don't think it's quite as deep as like its reputation would suggest So I want to make sure I have some some building blocks early there and that's obviously gonna apply in these early rounds I don't I don't want to put a specific number to it Jake or a specific round to it But I don't want to come out of these early rounds feeling like I'm oh it doesn't matter if I'm really weak at receiver because I can just catch up later I don't think it's as feasible as People maybe talk about it to be what do you think about that Jake? I completely agree and I'm not gonna go much further Because I'll let D-Brow talk because you're I'm really trying not to spill into mine and there's so much like sure It really ties into everything we're saying so far so like I'll let D-Brow go a little bit further I'm saving a little bit of my what I want to talk about There's a delete there. Yeah, I mean I agree with both you guys and the thing about with wide receiver and I really want to highlight here is that and My point I could have easily just been safe stay fluid stay flexible whatever, but I wanted to send it around the running backs because that is What everybody is just really really glowing onto this year, but with wide receivers we always talk about volume Volume is earned wide receivers like you're not gonna find a guy in the later rounds that's gonna earn a 27% target share Even if like the entire offense gets hurt around him like that's just not how that works like you can have an offense disintegrate around a wide receiver and That guy's still my in the best of circumstances only be an 18 or 20% target share player so To worms point if you want elite target share earners You're gonna have to pay up for them. You're not gonna find them in round 10 round 12 or what have you? Yeah, so you agree D-Brow not just with the point about getting the building blocks that receiver early But like that it is not maybe as deep as people talk about it to be I mean I'm looking like wide receiver 31 through 50 I like a lot of these names I'm interested in taking some swings here, but there's gonna be a lot of misses in this group as well like the certainty I feel like drops off earlier than people might realize and and Because other people are gonna take receivers early I think it's gonna dry up quickly at least in terms of guys that you can feel really confident and there are swings You want to take for sure that we are very happy to take as sleepers in the mid to late rounds But foundationally as building blocks. I think you got to get them early so I can tie I can jump into that point because I do agree I think the last two years where we went from wide receivers so deep That was why receiver was so deep because we were into the 30s with players still averaging 11 12 13 fancy points per game The last two years the shift has gone so far and as we just saw with the real NFL draft We're seeing how many teams are starting to move to two and even three tight and sense more frequently And those wide receiver two is not even three's wide receiver two is have increased volatility now And where they might have 11 or 12 fancy points per game It's 16 5 16 5 like it's not what it used to be and I think that Being deep is different than the quality being deep Jake let's stick with you for your first tip in this range Yeah, so really like I said it ties into all this and it's that I think people overlook the fact that replacement value matters when you're drafting early Because you are hopefully pivoting to how the draft is coming to you But if you do to deep rose point start wide receiver wide receiver or even if you're at the top of the draft and you take chase or nicoa jSN I think too often people forget that Okay, JSN chase or nicoa you are better than nine teams in your league to start a wide receiver You're better So you have an advantage But then they wait and they wait and they wait and they wait and they get wide receiver two in the sixth round And now you've just thrown what was the point of taking those you should have taken a running back because You're throwing your roster construction advantage out the window So because the draft is going to make you adjust and pivot to what's happening Don't forget as you're doing that you might need to adjust how you plan to build your roster if you are to deep rose point You do go running back running back and you lean into that Don't make your third running back all the way in the ninth round We're like oh, I got two great running backs and you wait till the ninth round And you got a bunch of also ran waiver wire quality because one dude gets hurt or the one dude on the buyer Whatever it might be your advantage is out the window and I think too many times people Similar to trying to predict they just try to like oh this is good This is good value good value. Good value. Which is what you should be looking for But don't forget where your advantage lies on your team Debra what do you think about that sort of pressing your advantage, you know early on Yeah, I mean, I fully agree with everything that Jake kind of laid out here I mean, that's kind of like with the backbone of zero RB was kind of You know, birth thawing was like you got this massive advantage of wide receivers If you hit it running backs now you're you've got a Incredibly strong wide receivers that are carrying your team you just need the variance to swing in your way But again going back to that's the reason Why if those things happen why you're crushing the rest you lead because you paid up for wide receivers You're winning in the flex you also are what you got a premium tight end or quarterback or what have you? So yeah, Jake's point is very sage Debra let's dig with you for your next tip in the early rounds and by the way We're talking early is like sort of the first five rounds is what we're looking at here when we say early My tight end strategy is incredibly narrow this year guys and I know these you know I'm literally gonna read off like three of the top four tight ends right now in ADP But it's like if I'm not getting bower's level and or worn fallen to me and I'm not reaching for them I'm just punting wider seer. I mean a tight inflate around I just do not care like I'm not gonna go for this middle class of tight ends of You know tucker craft coming off in ACL Kyle pit samlaporta Harold fan and like fine If I'm not getting one of these three guys that I think can be true League winning difference makers and bower's level and or worn this year and yes I'm kind of out on Tramick bride Then I'm just fine cobbling together drafting two to three tight ends the very late rounds of the draft like I Love Isaiah likely Dallas Goddard Jake Ferguson and Greg Dulls this year. I'll draft two or three of those guys later rounds If I don't get my top three guys in the early rounds I can't really find a title. I want to talk about some of the later round options, but before we do, I do want to just ask about why not Tray and McBride. I'm sure if some folks have heard you talk about this on shows before, but you know, we're in the middle of July, we probably have some new listeners kind of hopping and getting ready for the season for those who haven't heard you talk about it. Why is it that when you look at tier one, it's four names, Bowers McBride, Loveland, and Warren in ECR. Why do you like three of them and not the fourth? It's a few different parts of pieces about Tray and McBride. It is the variance of tied in, like just in the variance of the number one overall positional guy every single year, you are better trying to predict who is the guy that can take that crown the next year than saying last year's results will repeat. And everything when McBride was such an outlier last year, the dude ran 160 more routes last year than the next closest tied in Arizona was top like of the league and passing rate and all this kind of stuff. And it's like could that happen again because they're still not a great team? Sure. The pace of play drops that they run the ball more of the quarterback play is terrible because you know, Jacobi percent, we could say, okay, it was the garbage time king last year, we have a different OC, a different head coach, a different situation. If percent isn't playing, if it's Carson Beck, a Gardiner, Frick and Menshu, the touchdown equity of McBride can fall. And I'm not expecting him to run 160 more fricking routes than the next closest tied in this year. I think that all makes a lot of sense. I will also say like I just even within this tier, I do see powers differently from the others. I'm with everybody on the hype of Loveland and I like Warren, but like I'm not going to rank powers as a first round player. I don't think you should take him there because you don't have to. I think he's I would bet he returns first round value this year. Like I think they are going to pepper him with targets. He is as long as he's healthy. He's so talented. I am really, really excited about powers. I think he can be one of the defining players of fantasy this season. Well, like I he obviously belongs at the top. That's where he's ranked. I think there's even a gap between him and the others. Personally, Jake, what's your approach to tie dead? Is it sort of early or late? Are you more interested in some of these middle round guys? You know, pits or Laporta? Or do you have a similar approach to DeBro? It's the same as DeBro a little different overall, but it's the same in the fact that it's the same as quarterbacks for me. I either want the top tier or I'm just going to wait till the end game because that middle group, it's not so much that top tier to the end game. It's the middle group to the end game that even the middle group of the players that do hit. There's a lot of end game players that hit very closely 90, 95% of the production, potentially even better as we've seen throughout the years. There's always quarterbacks. It's like, man, I wish it would have had blank two or three quarterbacks. Stafford last year, tied in, wish it would have blank two or three last year. Like there's always options there. Granted, you might be the team. And I know the people that have had this happen to them hate it, but you might be the one that chases tight ends the entire year and you just never get that guy. And I understand that and you hate to be like, oh, eight fancy points per game is all I could get out of my tight ends for the entire year. It's not a death knelt to your team because it's tied in. You're two, maybe three fancy points behind behind a top five option. I disagree with DeBro and it cried only because I see even if he loses 20% of his production, he's still tied in three. And that's why I would still put him in the top tier. So it's not so much like I'm not going to sit here and debate one because I do have Brock Mowers number one or even potentially two. I've mentioned my projections spat out, lovelin and number one overall. And I was even shocked by that. So it's not even so much those guys. It's just I would still have them in that top tier. So that's where we do agree, but we differ a little bit. It's just who are three are, but I am in lockstep with him and the fact that I'm either drafting them early, same as quarterback or I'm waiting till the end game. And DeBro, you have McBride and your top tier. You just don't like him at cost as much as these other guys. Is that right? Or do you not even have him into your one? Yes. Okay. So I'm like, right now I have a very big bride is my tight end. Okay. And you just like the price. Yeah, it just no, it just comes down to the price. If I'm paying up at that price, which right now like per best ball ADP and stuff like that, Brock Mowers is 18th overall. Tramming bride is 21st. I'll pay up for Bowers there. But the caveat is like you can get lovelin in the third or fourth round. You get to have the Warren in the fourth or fifth round. So it's like, I don't see the gap between McBride and Lovelin and Warren as big as maybe Bowers. So if I'm going to pay up for a guy, I'm paying up for Bowers. And if not, I'll just enjoy the value of the two guys that I mentioned at the top. Like I said, I do want to hit on some of these later on tight ends that are some of our favorite targets. I like Isaiah, I like Lee a lot. I like Dallas got it a lot. I love Mark Andrews this year. Those guys are all outside the top 12 at the position. And then a guy we talked about yesterday, they've Jake brought up, Chigakonco. I also love he is tied in 20 right now. Like there are a lot of names late that really intrigue me. There is no world where I'll be drafting like Travis Kelsey's tied in nine, you know, Kittlecom and got the injuries tied in 10. I'm not going to be playing in that sandbox. I'm totally with you. I either want a guy like Bowers or Lovelin or again, there's so many names here that are not going to get drafted. You know, they'll get drafted, but they're not going to get drafted early or aggressively in a 12 team league because other people will get starters elsewhere. So I think all those guys like as likely God or Andrews, a conqueror, just the first four I see, but there are others. I think are all undervalued. Do you have a favorite Jake late round tight end target? Late round, we just talked about yesterday was a conquer. I still think likely is going late enough. I actually have likely as a top 10 tight end, although that could shift if we hear, oh, you know what, he's still going to be on the field 60% of the time. And then I think we've gone so far and what's been so frustrating about his career to this point, that can Kate is now somebody I will invest in. I wasn't the past two years, but stays healthy. And with the potential change in that offense, then yeah, I'm going after cancade now that he's finally a discount. I love Greg Dolcich too. Yeah, like you can basically, I'm sorry, I've been on like seven shows with Erickson over the past three weeks. So like, I don't just say me and Erickson were running in the middle of the bus, dude. We did a top five targets. And he only had three in there. And I actually jumped in the sheet and I put Dolcichs as four and five just because I see that as a gap, probably with a mention for Erickson. Say the other guy was going to say it just as a deep sleeper. I think Terrence Ferguson, like there's a world where he ends up like getting the third most targets for the Rams this year. It's not, I wouldn't, I'm not saying I would go bad on that necessarily, but he's totally free. Like just pick him up with your last pick or off waivers. And maybe there's an upset swing there. So there's guys who are really deep sleepers and there's more like mid to late sleepers, like the names I mentioned earlier. So tons of names of tight end. Totally agree with you here, Debro. Jake, let's go to your final one for the early rounds. With early rounds and I'm kind of cheating because it kind of pulls into six and seven. Honestly, it pulls into the entire draft, but I wanted to say because people are so brave, I'm somebody who's sit here and if you've ever heard me before, you've heard at least probably once when I've said don't buy all the risk. And my point in that is that people, and this isn't my, this isn't my tool for everybody out there. I say don't buy all the risk because I'm like don't buy it to all this height where we sit here and talk about under value, under value, under value. And then you get to the middle late August and all of a sudden you're buying the potential peak return. So I'm saying that to say is that I'm also going down and saying ADP matters for your targets, but not necessarily like use the ADP of like, oh, I should take this player in this range is that if you do have a target, it's okay to go one round earlier. And that's as my point being is somebody who does say don't buy all the risk because I think too often people are sitting there, oh, you know, I'm the early round four. And yeah, that's kind of a reach because he's probably going at like the third pick of fifth round. Well, guess what? You don't pick there. And I think that's where I'm saying is like it's okay to get your guys even in the early rounds. And we're talking around if you're talking about potential still return on your investment because we're talking 12, 16 tons of picks potentially between yours and your next pick, where like if you really believe there's these tier of wide receivers, a tier of running backs, whatever it might be. And one or two definitively stand out to you. There's no point in trying to hope that he makes it back to you in the next round. Just take them. And yeah, people might be like, I can't believe you took them 17 picks too early. It doesn't matter because if you're right, you're going to be laughing at the end of the game anyway. Debra, I'm not even going to throw it to you because I know you agree and be this ties into one of the one that ties into my goal. So you can start off with that later. I do want to let everybody know that we have two giveaways for you. If you want the chance to win a $50 fantasy pros shop code or a one year betting pros premium subscription, then this is your shot. All you have to do is subscribe to the fantasy pros YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below in any of our videos. And that is it. We will be announcing both winners right here on the channel. To make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize quick recap of our tips for the early rounds. Debra wants to walk out of the first rounds with just about two running backs, but obviously be valuable in that approach. I want to make sure you're prioritizing wide receiver. Just getting some field building blocks early, not as deep as its reputation. Jake talks a lot about replacement value, mattering for your team builds and kind of pressing those advantages early. And of course, his thoughts on ADP and then everything we said about tight ends. So that's a recap for the early rounds here. Before we get to the middle to late rounds, today's episode is brought to you by square, the system that seems to power everywhere I go these days. If you've ever tapped to pay and thought, wow, that was pretty fast, then it was probably square. 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Right now you can get $200 off square hardware. at square.com/go/fantasy pros. Again, that's squar.com/GO/fantasy pros. Run your business smarter with square. Get started today. All right, let's get into the tips for the middle to late rounds. Debron, what do you have for us? Swing for upside based off a talent in situation. Do not care about the floor. In the middle rounds, I want guys that can win me a league. If the upside hits and everything coalesces, they are going to be difference makers in your lineup. And then I'm talking about guys that, again, I pound at the table for that there is risk for, but if the upside hits like Christian Watson, Basel Tutin, Karnel Freakin Tate, who can be their clear white receiver one or Parker Washington, all these guys were, they're at their ADPs because we've seen flashes, but they haven't put it together for a whole season or there's Ricky unknown and stuff like that. If the upside hits for guys like this, this is how you swing your lead in the middle rounds. So I don't care about the floor shoot for upside. Jake, what do you think about this? Are you more interested in floor and getting some certainty here or just all upside at this point? So it's roster construction, obviously matters, but upside, upside, upside. And that's all I'll say for now because my biggest, biggest, biggest one has a lot to say about that. He wrote for this is this more, the middle approach, a late approach or both because we're kind of combining middle rounds and late rounds here. Do you have this approach really everywhere when to get out of the early rounds or is this more of a little or a late? I mean, it's it's middle and late. Like you can apply it like, honestly like through all parts of the draft, I'm kind of doing this. But I mean, I think for a lot of different drafters, I really want them to focus on this in middle and late rounds because again, I personally think floor is a fallacy. I think when people draft players for floor, they're like, oh, he's got a high floor, blah, blah, blah. All you're saying is that he can't win you the league. If he comes back and then the player, the White receiver averages 11 fantasy points per game and he beats ADP by three points or three spots based off of where you drafted him and where he finishes. Who the hell cares? That's not winning you a league that does not matter. Like it legit does not matter. So floor is a fallacy. I'm not going to chase floor and be like, Oh, I'm so happy this Titan got me nine points a week. He's tied in 12. Hooray. It's wonderful. It's not changing anything in your league. Yeah. Jake, what's your first tip for this range? For the middle range, I say going back to what I just brought up, but don't buy all the risk. But now let me explain it. So where I say the ADP, when you're looking for your guys, you kind of take this rule and they can go hand in hand, but kind of separate them a little bit. But the diet, don't buy all the risk and why I've said it for all these years is because people watching this show are invested. And we were talking about it's still the middle of July. People will watch in the show two months ago are invested. People listening to fancy podcast and reading articles are invested more than your casual people. And we're now at the point where let's be honest, the term still is valuable for search, but sleeper doesn't mean anything anymore because there's not you can go through all 32 rosters and there's not going to be a player that we like, you know what? Nobody's talking about this guy. Somebody somewhere has talked about every single player and every single roster in the NFL at the point because there's so many people trying to do this job and try to feed out the information that they see and know and share with everybody. So why I say that is because we start to lean in the all season, especially towards we talk about these players, talk about these players, talk about the players and then the group thinks starts to happen. And you'll even see people in the industry kind of echo other people not so much to like copy, just be like, Oh, I see the same thing. Let me talk about them too. So I'll give you an example. I'm not talking them up. But like, let's say the commanders do nothing. They don't sign digs. They don't do anything else. And Antonio Williams is is the guy. You're like, he's underrated because he's going to get 100 plus targets. And then somebody else, he underrated the number two of the bubble. And then by the time we get to August, also Antonio Williams is a centth round pick. Like, and that's why I said, you're buying all the risk that he is the number two. He is going to get 100 targets. And he has to do everything that we present like Debron said, ceiling of floor. You've now going so far that they have to hit their ceiling just to get pretty equitable value. And that's why I say don't buy all the risk. Because now the only opportunity you have on your team is the risk and the downside. And you don't want that. I think this is a pretty easy one to agree with. Debron, I assume you agree as well. Yeah. I mean, look, I'm fine with being aggressive on players and stuff like that. But I'm also not going to chase pseudo steam up the board. Like when players get all the hype and stuff and you see their ADP climb by like three rounds and stuff, it's like, okay, are we kind of getting a little bit out over our skis? And do we need to to Jake's point like a 95th percentile outcome for this to all hit? Like if it hits, then you're like, Oh, hooray. Look at me. But like if that if that doesn't hit, then you're like, okay, well, what did I do? And why did I do this? It's kind of like what I just talked about with Terrence Ferguson. Like the reason I like him is because he's free. If everybody was saying, I kind of like him as a sleeper like like Jake's example with a 20 wheel and it's the same thing. Like in all of a sudden, he's now going as tight as 19. That feels a lot different. You know, you're you're buying that risk. So I think that's spot on to that point. This feels like a conversation about like we were discussing on a previous show by Jonathan Brooks. It's like, dude, is a mid or B3. I'm totally in. If he gets up to like RB 20, then I'm like, I will. Yeah. I don't know. I'm having a very difficult conversation with myself. And I'm probably out at that point. But we'll see. All right. Diver what's your next tip for the middle to late rounds? Dude, I love late round quarterback this year. I that's what I want people to walk away with this. I think quarterback is just so flush with upside and names so late that I am going to be drafting and looking at late round quarterbacks. And so I'm going to be really, really heavy on this this year. And I wanted to highlight it because I think like past previous years, you can still get like all of these quarterbacks. I'm about to rattle off all these names. Have either a history of being top 12 quarterbacks over multiple seasons or they have rushing upside or a combination of the two to carry them inside the top seven to 12 quarterbacks this year. And all of these guys are going outside the top 90 players in ADP right now. Jackson Dart, Brock Purti, Bonix, Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Tyler Schuck, Malik Willis, all of those guys either had the history of production or we've seen it in small spirts or they have the rushing upside to carry them this year. I mean, look, guys, I just let rabbit off seven freaking quarterbacks going outside the top 90. You can draft two of them. And if one of them hits, yeah, see, do you like deeper before I toss to Jake, do you like late round quarterback more than you like late round tight end this year? Yes, only because I think that that's one of the ways where you can pay up for tight end and you can get one of those top three guys. And then you just play the game of playing late round quarterback draft two guys and you're making it up. You might be able to get elite production. I mean, people forget Jackson Dart, you take away the one freaking game against the Vikings, we scored one freaking fantasy point. And when he was a starter, he was QB one and fantasy points per game. He was out producing freaking jaw challenge. And you can get access to him outside the top 90. Yeah. So you can make up the that type of elite production possibly a quarterback while getting elite production and difference maker type of production from the tight end position. So you let's much easier to do than a quarterback. I like the late round options for both, but you just like the early round option better at tight end than quarterback. Like you see the yeah stronger at that position. Okay, that makes sense. Yes, you can if you're going to look for league winning upside and top three to five potential, you can ease more easily access that at quarterback late than you can get tight end. Jake, what do you think about late round quarterback this year? Obviously, there's tons of even some of the names that you know, D. R. Didn't mention. There's like you could go 12 deep of guys who are going inside the top 10 right now. Pretty intriguing names for various reasons. Do you agree? Just that the depth makes you really like late round quarterback. It does especially because when I said before, similar to tight end, it's either get the first tier or wait, but it's also get the first tier. If there's a value there, like if I have six, I can argue for the six being hurts, which as of today, that could actually change if we get bad reports that like the manion offense isn't clicking. Hertz isn't clicking. McCoy lemon isn't click like a lot. So I basically say the five maybe six being hurts, but that's assuming when I say take one early that one of them makes him to round five or six. Like I'm not going to invest in rounds two or three because I have a tier of six where I'm going to jump in if they are rounds five or six. If they aren't and they all go in the first four rounds, maybe your league is a super heavy quarterback drafting. Then I'm just as he said, I'm waiting to the end game. I love Jackson Dart late at Trevor Lawrence. There's a lot of still like the second half last season. It was QB one or two in league. So I just think there's a lot of options. I'm not even the biggest guy in Justin Herbert, but he's going late enough where you just don't need to take your quarterback in the seventh eighth ninth round if you don't get that top tier. Yeah, it's the thing where it's like it's not just that it's super deep like, oh, Malik Willis is QB 21. That's crazy or like, oh, maybe I'm buying into the upside for cam warding your two, a QB 24 or Baker Mayfield's then before QB 19. You don't even have to go that deep, right? You can get Dak Crest about a QB 10, right? You can get Jackson Dart outside the top 90 Brock Perties, QB 12. If everybody else in your league takes a quarterback and nobody takes a backup, you know, too early, you can walk away with Pertie or Nick. So you know, whoever your favorite is of those options, Stafford, who was awesome last year. So the point is that there's tons of options late and middle. Like there's really kind of all over the place. It's, it's a, you know, a ton of options there. So I agree with that one as well. I wish you guys would pick more tips that I could push back on because I would love to disagree with some of these. Don't want to don't want to fake it though. So I genuinely have liked most of these. J. Kooz. you're what's your next tip here for the middle to late rounds. Pay attention to the other teams needs. And I think this gets lost a lot of time too. Or horrific tip. Nobody listens to us. That's about time we're in front of the gate. I think that a lot of times especially this hits harder for people in the first three or the last three picks of each round. The middle rounds there's only so much you can do. But still pay attention. You pay attention to what other teams are building. If you know somebody already has four wide receivers, they're not likely to take a fifth because you're already starting on your bench. If you're still in round seven. But somebody has a quarterback and you don't. But the two or even two, let's say you're picking a 10th spot 1112 both have their quarterback and you don't. Well, you take whatever you're looking at your flex spot because you know you're probably going to get your quarterback still after the turn four picks later where it's possible that your target at running back a wide receiver ends up going because they need that more. I think a lot of time people are just like, oh, I need blank and I need to get blank and you know, whatever's on the board. And then it's like, oh, well, I could have waited five picks and still got them because the other teams are set or chasing on the flip side. Go back to one one of my first one was is if you're in rounds five and you're like, man, there's a guy I really kind of want to get in round six. And you're like, well, he's a running back and they're, you know, all these teams behind me only have one. Just go ahead and take him because he's probably not likely to get to you. So I think that's one thing that people and I know sometimes the drafts are moving so fast that you can't but just try to keep attention pay attention to the other teams' make-ups so you know where you can and can't wait on certain situations. Something that helps with that is draft assistant. This is not an official freedom. So it's a do right now. But just want to point out that draft assistant does quite a go a long way helping with that. And like, sometimes I do find it hard to when you're on the clock and you don't have that much time, it's ticking down like you have to try and consider multiple different teams and what they're doing. And just the guys you believe in and everything. This is why it's good to have like a cheat sheet built out ahead of time and and have things like the draft assistant to just kind of highlight it for you. Say, just so you know, these these teams have already all taken quarterbacks. You can wait, you know, four more picks, take your next one, whatever it is. So I would recommend draft assistant in those scenarios into to kind of follow along with this tip. My tip for the middle to late rounds is kind of when in doubt, trust the quarterback in the play collar. And this is basically just about the offensive environment and there can be lots of reasons to like players that are not on teams. We expect to be high scoring and some of the great offenses in the league. But if you're torn between two guys in the middle of the late rounds, which I imagine will happen, you know, there's a lot of names to pick from. And sometimes you're going to say, I kind of like this guy or that guy, I want to follow the offensive environment and say, which of these teams, which of these guys on a team that has a chance to score a lot of touchdowns and maybe he runs hot and touchdowns because the team is so good or which of these teams has a quarterback that isn't going to be a real detriment to him and totally tank his season the way, you know, Justin Jefferson season was tanks by JJ McCarthy last year. Sorry, Debrough, you know, which team has the the play calling up the upgrade where oh, I think that I love this guy. They hired the tree. They hired from I think they're going to take a step forward. So when in doubt, you know, I obviously go with the player you want. But if I'm trying to decide between two, I think the offensive environment, particularly that team's quarterback and the play collar, even if you're running back, right? Like I, you're not catching past from the quarterback, just a quarterback that will elevate the offense to give you more scoring opportunities is slightly more than a tiebreaker to me. Debrough, what do you think? I think that your point is, first of all, it's really good. But also, I think it's really important to also bring up the point of when I feel like people have that kind of conundrum when they're debating two or three players, a lot of times this comes back to well, I already drafted Chase Brown. So am I really going to draft another bangle or I already drafted a ram? Am I going to go invest in the same offense? Well, I, yes, you do. Because if that offense is top five in scoring, it's it's the tide that raises all the ships. So yes, it's totally fine to draft two players because you're like, do they're going to score points? They're going to lead the league in points. So like draft all the Patriots, draft all the Bengals, investing good offenses and a lot of people will be like, yeah, but I don't want to be over invested. How many times do we see good offenses support two top 15 wide receivers, top five tied in a top in, you know, two top 20 wide receivers. We see it every single freaking year. So yes, to your point, warm, invest in good offenses. Because if your score touchdowns, everybody's coming along for the ride. Jay, how much do you weigh the offensive environment when you're making decisions in this area of the draft? It's really when it comes down to the tie breaks and a kind of situations is a lot of people to deep roast point. We'll use the tie breaker like, oh, I don't want two Bengals or whatever. I think it's the convert, inverse of that is that I want to target the good offenses. So if I have a tier of guys and generally my rankings already have reflect that. But if you guys, whoever's listening has a different set of group, you know, like, you know, what I kind of like all these four players, I could see the break out here. I could see the potential blah blah, whatever it might be. I'm not too concerned if I roster a second player from the same team because the, as you said, the tie that raises all the ships, you know, how many times have we seen two top 15 wide receivers from the same team running back and a wide receiver and a quarterback, all be ones on the same team because the offense, we chased the Rams, we chased the Bengals, we were chasing the Eagles until last year. But that's it's going to be the tie break that like, yeah, that's where I'm going to go. I'm going to chase the offense. I just thought everybody about draft assistant. Let me not tell them about draft intel, which is my favorite single tool that we have a fantasy pros. You can study every single draft guy on the internet, but you aren't drafting against the computer. You're drafting against Bob from accounting who takes a quarterback in the first round every single year. Stop guessing and use draft intel to remember stuff like that. You sink your league from Yahoo ESPN sleeper and others for free and it instantly analyzes up to five years of your league's historical draft data. It'll tell you exactly who reaches, who hoards running backs and who never takes a tie down before round six. Plus, if you're a premium member, you can pull all these exact user tendencies right into our mock draft simulator. So the bots will draft exactly like your actual league mates. Head over to fantasy pros dot com slash intel and spy on your league today. I really do love draft intel and playing into what I was saying about draft assistant earlier like it will not only say, hey, something like, hey, these teams ahead of you have already taken quarterbacks. So you can wait to take it. It'll say these teams never take quarterbacks in the first 10 rounds in this whole history of your league. So you can wait, even if they don't already have one. I just think it's it's like playing on easy mode. Honestly, I think draft intel is one of the coolest things we do at fantasy pros. We're we could have summed that up with just don't be Bob. Don't be Bob. Yes. Don't be Bob. That is that your golden rule here, Debra that you never break is no. No, the golden rule that I'm going to share with people is the same golden rule that I've had on the bottom of my cheat sheet for every single year. I have been at fantasy pros and it really just sums up to the five words as you always remember when you're drafting screw ADP and get your guys. There is nothing more painful than getting sniped on a player that you're like, I was going to draft him last round and I didn't because I played the ADP game and then you watch that player smash on somebody else's team. And this is especially true for people that are drafting at the turn and stuff like that where you're trying to anticipate or you're playing the ADP game and you're like, well, I've drafted my entirely going to clown me. Who freaking cares? Because the other side of that coin is if you draft the guy and he smashes at the end of the year, nobody's going to look back and be like, Bob took that guy, 15 time 15 clicks picks before ADP like, yes, that's it's so crazy. If the player smashes, it doesn't matter and nobody cares about that. So it's great. And get your guys. Yeah, I'll do my next because it's sort of similar to this. It's it's nobody knows for sure. So draft the team you want to root for all year. This is going to be your roster. You know, we play in like 20 different leagues. A lot of people don't a lot of people are in like one to maybe three leagues and that's plenty for them. So you don't have the option to be like, Oh, well, if I don't like, as a Ravens fan, if I'm like, oh, I, you know, I could didn't get Lamar in this draft. I can get him in the next one. I was waiting for you to bring up. I want to have Lamar in one of my leagues. Well, I have 20 options to do that. A lot of people don't. So if you're in a league and you're like, I really want to have this player because he's my favorite player or because I really believe in him, not even because he's on your favorite team. Just like, I really think this guy is going to have a big year and I don't care what the rankings say. I have conviction in this. Just go, go get him. Like take the guy that you don't take the guy that you're supposed to take to take the guy that you want to take because to your point, Debro, there are a few things that will eat you up more at the end of the season. Then, like, if let's say last year, you were really in on JSN, but it was like, I can't take him because these other guys are all consensus ranked ahead of him. And then he doesn't fall back to you. And then you watch him do it. He did all year. That will eat away at you. And it will be like this dark, even if you have a good season in my experience, that's a dark cloud over your year. So just whether it's because that player is on your favorite team or whether it's passing on a player because you don't just don't blame like that. Maybe you're just uncomfortable having a guy like Rishi Rice on your team with some of the off feels like whatever it is. Like nobody knows for sure. So just draft the team that you want to be actually rooting for and that will make your Sundays fun because we do this for fun. Obviously we're trying to win trying to maybe win a little money to, but like this is your team and this is a game at the end of the day. So draft the team you want to root for kind of similar to go get your guys. Like Debro says, Jake, your golden rule is one that I have heard you say before. Yeah, band kickers. No, it's a kind of does tie in. It's stopped wasting your bench. And the problem is is I see this go I'm going back to referencing similar to a question that reference from before is that I look at these rosters and I'm like, why is your bench look like this? And it's not like I we're trying to teach I'm not trying to be mean when I say that and I know it's going to sound mean, but it's draft. the players that like the if you're thought and put it this way, if your first thought was, hey, I'm around 10. I think he would be good for my biweek. Don't draft them. That everybody's good for your biweek on the waiver wire. You are shooting for why you see teams win in fantasy, why they make the differences is because we're trying to give you the best odds. It's all odds. Like there's not 100% tactic that's going to win. There's not 100% player that's going to hit for you. Late rounds, it gets even dice you. But you give yourself as many bullets in the chamber to go after and win a championship. And by doing so is by having potential similar with Debrose said, and you did too is like, I want guys who could be running back to's. Why receiver two's in three is potential people there are top 25 to 30 at their position. A potential top 10 quarterback that surprises the same thing it tight in. You want the upside to be a difference maker. You don't want the guy. I'm sorry to throw him under the bus on this one, but I'm not drafting Jacobi Myers. Like there is Jacobi Myers like, oh, everybody reaches some point where you draft him. No, I won't because his ceiling is why receiver four, maybe why receiver three. And there are a ton of those with a difference. I'd rather go after somebody who has the potential top 20 ceiling, who maybe I drop in week three. But the reason these rosters that you see later in the years like, man, how did he end up with all these guys or how did she end up with all these trade targets that you go, go get it's because they took these gambles, these lottery tickets. And if you just get one or two to hit versus a bunch of replacement value players, which I think that's the biggest thing. People take way too many replacement value players instead of the upside on the bench. And it also does jokingly, it does tie into kickers. Don't draft the second kicker. Maybe a second defense. If you want to see how it plays out at the beginning of the year, but the bigger one too is that quarterback. If you take that top tier of quarterbacks, don't draft the backup quarterback. You're never starting them unless your lead option is on a buy or gets hurt. And I know some people are like, well, that's how I fell into blank. You're right, but you're like the 5% and that's what is the confirmation bias that people only remember when you hit on said player at quarterback and tight end. That's why I'm making the differentiation there is because they're like, oh man, that one year I had Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. Well, you also led to the fact that you had to make a trader. You had a hell of a decision to make every single week because you didn't draft that top five or top six quarterback just to throw them on your bench. Anyway, do you Jake feel like when you're aiming for this upside with one of these bench spots? Do you feel like you prefer to still avoid, like let's say a guy who's maybe falling because of injury concerns still has upside or and you would rather kind of focus on the guys who are have upside based on the role changing or something like that or just kind of a breakout year or you kind of like equal opportunity. I don't care if they're falling because it's injury or role or situate whatever like I want to just take swings all over or are there types of swings that you like more than others? I'll make it all the swings and I'll turn around and like this is everybody what you can ask yourself is Pat mail I've done shows with for the longest time. Create your narrative. Is there a narrative and like a situation where it's like hey, we did another show just yesterday. Jonathan Brooks if he's 100% probably takes over the back field because of his talent. So what's the scenario like, hey, I'm in around 12 this player Jacobi Myers. Oh, if Brian Thomas gets hurt and is a, you know, junk or whatever it is, maybe he can get the Y receiver three. Okay, that's a cool narrative. But like how about blank running backs? Nicholas Singleton. We did that show too. Like I don't love them. But is there a narrative to say like, you know what the other two just continue to be subpar performers and he just takes over because of, hey, he looks a little bit better. Blank gets hurt. Blank comes back. Whatever it might be. Ask the question. Not just, hey, does this only fill in for a by-week? Ask the question the other way. Can this player reach the top 20, 25, 30 if something happens and if so, there's your answer. That's the swings I'm taking. But like to your point, Jake, is there any credible scenario like any scenario that we can craft with Khalil Shakir is an actual wider top. No, because we've already seen him. He doesn't exist. It doesn't exist. Yeah, he's right. Don't draft him. It doesn't exist. By the way, if I could give a bonus tip here, based on something you said, Jake, like if I, if it were possible, I could click a button and have this happen. I would just remove the by-week column from the draft rooms. I was, I don't even want to say that. I don't want to care. I don't want it to be a tiebreaker. I don't want to think about it. I don't want that information. I don't want to anchor myself to that information. Your team is going to look so different in the middle of November than it does in early September. Right? Like injuries are going to find you. Guys are going to underperform. You might make a trade. You might pick up somebody off waivers who's better than the guy you thought was going to be your starter anyway. There are so many paths to, there are so many exit ramps to the by-week being an issue in the course of the next few months. I do not even want to know. It's not that I'm telling you don't care. Try to not even find out if you can. No, look at that. You should say don't care because nobody should care. No one should know what I want to know is my care. Again, and this is the 5% of when it did happen because it's only happened once to me. But I went the other way one year where I was out. Oh gosh, I have four guys on week seven by. And that ended up be my tiebreaker the other way. I was like, I'll just lean into it. I'll have basically nobody that week and kind of throw the loss out the window, but at least 90% strength for the rest of the year. And again, I'm saying this is the 5%. Admittedly, I lost one game that year. It was that by-week that I got torpedoed and destroyed it. There's been other years where I haven't had that level of success, but the point being I agree with you is because I've actually leaned into it and it's gone the other way and working for me. Yep. Yeah. I mean, I would just think you should not even look at by weeks. They do not matter. And to your point, Worm, would you get to that point of the season? If your bench is like you draft five guys and they all have the same by-week, you drop three or four of them, you drop all of them and you end up with different players. Would you get to week 12? It doesn't. It's funny that you said week 12. I was going to say the same. It doesn't matter. I was going to say, if you get to week 12, get to week 12. And your roster is exactly the same or 95% of what it was when you drafted. You have an amazing roster and you're not going to care about the by-week anyway because you just walked away from the draft with every best target you possibly have. Yeah, you're probably like 11. What? To your point? To your point, though, too, Jake, it's like, who cares if you don't go into feed it? If you lose one week because you say, fine, I'm going to take the L that week, but I am steamrolling the league the rest of the year. It doesn't matter. You're still walking home with a championship. That goes for you. Really good manager. Get all of the week 14 by-player so they can rest it and ready for your playoffs. There you go. Yes. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. 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Hard Rock Bet payable in bonus bets, not a cash offer offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida, in Florida, offered by Seminole, Hard Rock, Digital, LLC and all other states must be 21 and over and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play terms and conditions apply concerned about gambling in Florida called 1833 play wise in Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants to help, call 1-800-9 with it in Arizona, Ohio, and Virginia, call 1-800-My Reset, gambling problem, call 1-800-Gambleer in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey, and Tennessee. All right guys, we'll go ahead and wrap things up. There are things everybody for checking out. I thought it was pretty fun. These are one of the types of episodes I really like. We take the bigger picture of you and don't just hit on specific names but talk about our macro level approaches. I hope everybody enjoyed that. For D-Bro and Jake, I'm Ryan Warmel. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasyproves.com/review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at fantasyproves and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/manusiproves. [Music]