technicals & fundamentals | the call: Monday 15 June

[Music] Good day and welcome to the call 10 stock people are you two experts winner. It is Monday the 15th of June I'm Edward Gagan. Great to join us for our first show of the week and somewhat of a momentous day you would think in terms of a piece still having been announced out of the Middle East. So, you've seen to see obviously how that's affecting markets and we're going to get across a few stocks that may well be affected by those moves and to get across the stocks we're joined by David Novak from Wealthwise Education and Adrenaline from TP Wealth Advisory Gentleman. Welcome to you both. I'm interested to see whether you've taken a good look at both oil and gold charts off the back of this news. What sort of movements you see? Well, I haven't looked at the latest or price in what's that that's obviously be lower. It was off. It was down about 4% I think when I looked at it. Last time I saw it was around 88 or 86. 87 I think it's 8. I'm still bullish long term the energy sector. I think this even though this piece still is impending by Friday I think they're signing it off. It's going to take according to the Saudis and Quattards that it's going to take a list a couple of two or three months before the oil really starts to free flow again. Nevertheless I think it's likely that the oil price and particularly gas I think will stay higher for longer. That's my view. I know that we're going to talk about woodside in a moment but I think obviously there's going to be this correction as a result in the oil market but how much of a correction is anybody's guess. Up here when it's just around $80 or $1.5 with the Aussie dollar at $70.5. That's great margins for the likes of Santos and Woodside and Beach but particularly Woodside and Santos. They're getting fantastic margins here. I expect that when they report their production numbers and results it's going to be stellar. Yeah well I'm new mentioned there we're going to talk about one of those stocks in particular for our stock of the day before we get there though. Andrew what are your observations then I guess the the mic responds to the news out of the Middle East. We're still a few days away from it being signed of course. Good happen as we all know. Yeah I look with respect to you and I and David who have just met we're not geo political experts. Plenty of them out there on the internet but we're not in that pantheon so I guess I'd probably be a little bit cautious in passing any judgment in that regard. We can just speak to what's going on with markets and unsurprisingly oil oftenily 5% about 5% of barrel and gold rallying equally unsurprisingly as well. So certainly all those moons coming into a line and the other thing of course is it's Central Bank Week. We've got a number of central banks meeting this week including our own. What's that going to do with interest rates because a lot of our market is US market I should say it's very technology focused. The successful IPO of SpaceX on Friday evening still a little bit blurry eye from staying up and watching that come on. So what impact will that have on markets as well. But today it's point there's certainly going to be some great earnings from these energy companies in the next quarter. It's probably looking out towards the end of this calendar year into early next year if oil continues to drift and you know even here in Australia there's great demand for EVs will that continue. Of course from a political point of view will the government do anything with the the exercise will they continue to kick that can down the road for another 90 days because that's how long it's going to take for all that oil to flow through the streets of Hemos. The market's going to try and digest all that this week's going to be quite interesting with those central banks. Well on that point then let's continue with a look at energy with the deeper dive on our stock of the day it is woodside obviously the largest listed energy player on the ASX now. She is lower ahead of that anticipate a piece deal to be signed between Iran and the United States on Friday present Trump posting on social media. The deal with the Islamic public of Iran is now complete and in the state of the most would be open toll free and US naval blockade will also end he said ships of the world start your engines let the oil flow. Now also woodside's US shares closing higher on Friday was up that 7% on a Bloomberg report of a takeover interest from Exxon mobile. Woodside has declared it's not aware of any proposal and that it is not a discussion with Exxon regarding a potential transaction. US shares are mentioning that up that 7% on the New York stock exchange before the announcement of a piece deal with Iran but does you can see that shares coming off today to match the fall we've seen in the oil price. And let's start with you then looking at woodside look who knows what Exxon you know whether really is looking closely at woodside but given also the latest developments and where the oil price could will go how do you see woodside of the money. Yeah it's an interesting one pretty all the excitement if I can use the understatement of the century it was trading sort of in the 20th well I think it got as long as 20 there at one stage to that 20 to 24 band and there's a job we prepared earlier and then once all the news kicked off as you can see there it had quite the run it's trading on a p of around 11 times it's better but yet forecast earnings per share growth of only around 4% I note consensus is around 33 bucks versus 30 if there was to be a change of ownership a potential takeover top style transaction you would have to think Exxon or however is would have to pay a premium for that you know you're not going to be able to just buy it on a on a valuation basis and woodside have done a pretty good job of do risking themselves a number their big project Scarborough Pluto etc by sort of selling off smaller equity stakes to different players the Japanese etc but I think ultimately for this one it is going to be hostage to the to the oil price we've just spoke about before before that we think the oil price is going to be coming off so I would think that in an environment where I think oil will probably come off further even though the P is not demanding I think it's probably going to come under some pressure probably the only reason it would be a whole Andrew would be that if there is some corporate activity and bearing a mind that a lot of these global players because of ESG concerns that's harder for them to be going out and drilling for new oil you are going to see a favorite consolidation in that space and obviously woodside the main reason so for that but reason alone I'd say it's probably a whole if you consider the underlying industry dynamics though it's probably a sell so I'll stick on the hold side. Alright more of the upside there but lots of play of course David how do you say it and what's that chart telling you? Well the chart you know as Andrew pointed out it was $22 in December I rallied up to 36 nearly just slightly below 36 and here we are down at 30 I'm very much of the same view as Andrew on this look woodside is has to be probably the most undervalued global you know oil and gas energy giant so no surprise that it likes of X on the looking at it it would be difficult to see it getting past the investment and review board because it's like selling the farm you know we've I mean what have we got left if we if we woodside gets taken like what happened to Santos you know there was a bid for Santos was it were years thereabouts ago got knocked back so I think the same thing would happen but it's certainly trading in a very low multiple and you know and especially with this quarter the numbers are going to be stellar when they report their production number so I definitely would not be selling it waiting for those numbers and you could see a lift in their dividend I mean their dividend yield is around 7% you know taking the franking credits it's just over 7% so that could go easily go up but the chart itself the trend right now short term it's going through a corrective stage there's a very big support level on my chart at $27 for woodside I'd be surprised personally if it got down there I mean if it it would could get down there of course if the oil price you know falls 20 30% you know easily but it's got a very big support level according to my chart here at $27 but look I'd be a hold still a holder of woodside and like I said on an undermining multiples as Andrew pointed out and again we probably need to review our energy policy in this country because it's a really important for us to look at that in terms of our security and especially in the in the gas sector which you know most of our gas gets sold overseas LNG so you know I think I think that needs to be written. reviewed for our own security purposes as well. - Yeah, certainly in terms of domestic reservation or that's certainly the case on the West Coast, but they've been slow to the party here on the East Coast. All right, so that is a double hole then for Woodside, given what's happened geopolitically, but also potential speculation there that Exxon may well be taking a close look at picking up his David mentioned there, potentially the most undervalued to global energy giant. Let's now turn to the first five stocks we're gonna get across and they are catalyst metals, James Hardy, Wally, R.E.A. Group and Woolworths. So we're gonna kick it off with a gold minor, interesting because we're just talking about oil. Now of course, we're seeing these trades unwind today, we're getting that news out of the Middle East and that obviously the energy producers are low. The gold producers are jumping higher, given they've been under so much pressure over the duration of this war. So let's take a closer look at catalyst metals. Now Aaron saying, I'm a small hauling of catalyst, looking at earnings per share and broker forecast, earnings per share, it seems very cheap. Would you rate it as a buy-hull sell or are there better gold mining companies on the ASX? All right David, over to you. What's the chart telling you and is also, that is up around 11% in today's trade. - Yeah, I would be a buyer of this. If you look at my chart that I put together, you'll see where catalyst is trading at. It's right on that key support level where it's bounced from $4.50. That was back in July, last year where it is right now, which doesn't make any sense because given where the gold price I mean has traded, and especially still after the rally on Friday night as well, I mean gold's back to US, I think it's about over 4,200 US. - Well, in fact you've got a gold chart, let's bring that up and just talk us through what you're saying then. - Well there you go, there's the gold chart. You can see back in July, August, okay. Last year the breakout above 3,500 US went to that high of almost 5,650 that peak in January, and then it said that sharp corrective move because actually the bond yields are moving up and that's not positive for gold. So that's why after a big spike like that, that's normally what happens. So it had this corrective move down to 20% to 25%, then a big rally up and then a fall back to that level that you can see at 4,200 had a nice bounce and that's where it's bouncing now back above that level. Now I've put those lines on there because they're called Fibonacci retracement levels and a lot of professional traders and institutions use Fibonacci retracement. So taking that from the low in July, August, last year, which was 3,300 to that peak of 57 and it's retraced exactly back at that what they call this point, the 6.61.8 retracement level. So that's where it's getting support. It's uncanny how these lines work. I've got a tenor. I've looked at these for years. Now the key level of watch on gold is really, does it break above that 48, 4900 level? That's the level that's really key here, US dollar. But even at this level, like I said, the Aussie Gold produces, they're getting, I haven't looked at the latest Aussie Gold price, but maybe around 6,000. And then you look at catalyst and catalyst is producing gold, 110,000 to 110,000 ounces per annum, at an average all in sustaining costs around 28, 2,900. So they're getting 100% margin. Their market cap is 1.3 billion. They've got almost 300 million cash in the bank at the end of March. So you've got an enterprise value of a billion dollars and they generated 100 million free cash flow in March quarter. I mean, it's cheap on a multiple. And across the board, a lot of these, I mean they've had a correct image. So to come back to where it was last year, as you saw on the chart, to where the gold price was trading at half, I mean, to me, it's a screaming buy here. I mean, you have a stop loss below that level on the chart. But I like the gold sector. If it just stays at this level, I mean anywhere, the gold price stays around 6,000 Aussie, these companies, they're going to have a stellar report, earnings report, come August. And their production numbers for this quarter is going to be outstanding. So is catalyst among the better play stocks for you? They're one of the top ones I like. Yeah, I mean, I like there's our cane. I like areas resources. They're a smaller end of their vault minerals. You've got to like, you know, vault, regis resources, evolution. I mean, the outstanding, the cash flow they're generating is outstanding. And I think people are just skeptical about the gold price or clearly they are. Otherwise, they wouldn't be selling their gold shares down to this level at the moment. But like I said, no one's got a crystal ball. But I just follow the chart. And right now, you can see, it could trend between that 4200 US level and 4849. If it does that for the next six months or longer, that'll be very positive for the sector. So there's bargains out there to pick out right now. All right, bargains are one of them catalyst metals in your eye. So that is a buy. True. What are the products? Yeah, I'm really interested in hearing David's feedback. It's almost like he was reading some of my notes as well. So if you see me sort of doing this for the rest of the session, I'm just trying to make sure David's not stealing all of my lines. Joe. I need to tell you that. A number of things that David pointed out relating to sort of the cost of production. But multiple P of four. It's not often that you see companies trading on P's of four with forecast earnings per share growth of 72%. I do note, however, that short interest is rising. People betting that the share prices going to fall. And maybe one of the reasons we're seeing that 11% rally today is not only because the gold price is up around 2.5%. But there's probably also a fair bit of short covering taking place as well. People basically trying to cover their short positions so that they're not caught out. In our model portfolios, we hold Newmont and we hold Capricorn. So certainly there are a couple of other names that investors might want to turn their mind to. I'm not a huge gold expert. I just look at, as I said, some of those fundamentals. I'd probably have it as a hold because, as I said, we prefer Newmont and Capricorn. But to David's point, it is cheap. I guess sometimes when I see things that are cheap, I get a bit suspicious as to why is it so cheap? What am I missing? So in this case, I'd say it's a hold. Newmont and Capricorn, but it's probably more positive on the gold sector. And sorry, the other thing, of course, is back to our friends at the central banks. What's the outlook for interest rates going to be? Because obviously that's got a bit of a re-through as well for the gold price. So it's a hold. Well, in a hold then, for catalyst metals, but both brutally bullish on those gold producers. All right, let's now turn to James Hardy. Second stock, we'll ask him about this one. Now, a big exposure, obviously, in North America. It's a fiber cement division has been underperforming, underlying market demand then. And management assuming no housing market recovery in FY27 instead of tagging earnings growth through pricing, cost control, and synergy delivery. Andrew, James Hardy, of course, still smarting. And so on the investors off the back of that acquisition of ASIC. You might recall Henry Jennings and I, my good mate, we covered this one off six weeks ago, something like that. And I don't think we left viewers and listeners in any doubt as to our position relating to not only the acquisition that they made in the US, the ASIC, if I'm saying that correctly. And not only the fact that potentially paid a fairly high price for that business, but also around the way that Australian shareholders were consulted during that process, i.e., very little. And the market is quite rightly therefore concerned, not only to that earnings risk as they now have exposed to the US, but also the more broader governance piece around James Hardy as well. So if I look at, from a financial point of view, you'd 16, so I've seen a line with the market for all cast earnings per share growth of around 24%, which is all really interesting. It's trading about 10% below consensus. Consensus is about $38. But for me, there's a big question mark relating to that investor relations piece and communications. There's a big question mark relating to the governance piece. And if they can't get that bit right, then I'm out. So it reminds us of. - Dave. Oh, yeah, this look, if you look at my chart here, it says it all. It's not been a good trend. And it's certainly not a buy right now. But you can see, I've got these two lines, the wavy lines. The red one is a 20. This is a weekly chart. So it goes back all the way back to 2020. You can see there that low, COVID. So the red line is a 20 week moving average. And the blue is a 50 week moving based on the average. closing price over the last 50 weeks. So you can see that when the red crosses above, the trend is up and when the red crosses down, the trend is down. The light when the red crosses down below the blue and vice versa. So you can see where it crossed down clearly. This is why I followed technical analysis. Whereas about $50, that was the get out. You had to get out there and you can see what happened to the trend since then. So right now what's interesting on the chart is technically you're looking at a big support level going back to where it had that big rally back at 2022, like 22. It's come back then. It's tested at three times. So there's a patent called a double triple bottom pattern. If that's a bullish patent, technicians, you know, rate that as bullish. So if it is bullish, then you would expect, you know, the stock to climb higher from here. But you can see the red has not crossed above the 20 week has not crossed above the 50 week moving average at this stage. So it's not a buy. You could possibly hold it, but you'd have to put a stop loss. Certainly you don't want to see it break below $25 there. That would be, you know, but you could hold it if you've already got it. I wouldn't be a buy. That's for sure of it. And the other question mark I have about James Hardy is, you know, because it's linked to the US housing market, of course, and there's rising interest rates. So that has a detrimental impact on their earnings. So for that reason as well, I would not be a buyer. And yeah, but the best hold just from the technical pattern here and see if it does follow through on the upside. All right. So watch out for those key levels. A hold in a cell then for James Hardy. Gosh, you here. Did you know becoming an Osby's contributor gets your stocks straight to the front of the queue at the call and to the expert of your choice if a big if you become an Osby's contributor. It's our small way of saying thanks for your support. The link to become a contributor is in the show notes. And we'd love it if you could leave us a review as well. Thanks for listening. Let's now turn to Wally. Our next stock Jeff, asking out this is the global engineering company project asset services, particularly in the energy chemicals and resource sectors. There did outline an ambition delivered, even dig growth in double digits through to FY 30. And also potentially it's going to get some more work out of the Middle East given the repair activity that's required. Given what's going on over the course of the war, David. Yeah, look, from a I wouldn't buy it from a technical perspective, just that purely that alone, I would not be a seller of Wally and against again, again, if you look at my chart, I would have got out of this at least at 15 bucks easy. Look at that. See again, I've got the moving averages there. The cross, cross down back then back there in last year, early 24 again at that 16, 15, 50 level. You just wouldn't touch this, this is a downtrend. So it'd be a sell if you didn't get out before I'd be getting out now. I know, so don't see it's look engineering. I mean, they're in the right space with infrastructure engineering. They made a big acquisition of Jacob's engineering energy at 3.3 billion US. Yet to see the numbers on that and see how that translates into their earnings. But other than that, I would wait to see how that translates in the future. But I, technically, it's just avoid and sell on trend. That's not a good trend. Yeah, all right. Okay. So, sell from David Andrew. Fundamentals, what are you seeing there? Yeah. And I mean, I'm no charter, but even I could see that that does not look helpful. From a fundamental point of view, it's fairly priced. It's around a P of 13 times relative to its P's, which is trading around 12 times. An equally consensus, consensus around 13 bucks versus the current share price, which as you can see, there's about $13 as well. Probably the big issue for Warley is its exposure to energy. And as you write the point of Andrew, if this Middle East piece has sorted itself out, if that is not oxymoronic, then there's certainly some work there for them to win. But again, they're linked back to energy. And if we go back to our woodside conversation around maybe there might be a short-term spike in energy, but long-term is all the place to be. And if we sort of have some doubts around that, then that energy play, then potentially that's also going to be a bit of a re-through for Warley as well. So on my view, it's a whole. Okay. All right. Just watching out for some of those potential negatives there for Warley. Let's turn to RIA Group. That is our next stock. You go asking about this. It's probably a bit more of a contentious stock here on the call. Now, just notice that the city feeling a market reaction to the proposed changes from negative year in capital gains tax and property has been excessive house likely to hit the real estate listing platform and its share price having come off about 15% in fact since the federal budget. Andrew, the other consideration, of course, is the potential AI disruption. Lots of considerations. I was lucky enough to go to a a NAB briefing with their chief economist Sally Ald in Brisbane last week. One of the key things I took away from that was NABs modeling, which in December last year had the housing market growing by that 9% forecast. Here we are in June and that now got the housing market to decline by 2%. Now, part of that decline had started occurring before the budget to be to be fair, but certainly the budget has accelerated that decline. From a macro point of view alone, that's not helpful for RIA or be it in the very short term, it should be because might accelerate people wanting to sell their place and paying a premium price to RIA to do that, but medium to long term, it's not great. Next issue, of course, is you've got Coast Star, which bought Domain last year. Coast Star is that $50 billion behemoth in the US and they've got a low cost model. So you'd expect them to continue to do a similar type of thing here in Australia. So you've got the macro, the housing market under a bit of pressure and then their competitors, their main one Domain, sharpening their pencil as well. You've got a new CEO, what are they going to do? We already know that whenever a new CEO comes in, that's a bit of a tricky one as well. And probably the final reason that I would have it as a sell, there we go, is that short interest as rising as well. So people betting that the share price is going to fall. So for that litany of reasons, it's a sell. Okay, so there are the negatives David, do you see any positives there, in particular, I guess what you're seeing on the chart? Yeah, the chart, there's something interesting if we bring up the chart, my chart there, it's Longton. Again, weekly chart that goes back to 2021. Now you'll see where I've got that blue line, horizontal line going across. You'll see that it's come down and testing a support level where it bounced really strongly back in 2023. Now the other interesting thing is down the bottom there, there's an indicator, quite a popular indicator called the Relative Strength Index or RSI. And you can see that as you've got lower peaks and lower troughs on the chart there, you can see on the indicator, it's actually the opposite, there's high peaks, high troughs that that's called technical terms of bullish divergence, which indicates that we could see a reversal here. That's what the indicator saying is saying it's not as weak as it looks technically because that it's indicating that indicator. It's on a 14-day basis RSI measures the closing price versus the opening price over the last 14 weeks in this case. So it's saying this could bounce strongly from here, that's what the indicator is saying, it's saying not a buy right now, but I don't ignore bullish divergences on the outside. So I wouldn't be, like I said, a buy right now until I see evidence of it going back up, but I wouldn't be selling it equally down here, I'd be holding it at best and looking to buy if it does turn around and change trend starts going back up again, but right now at best a hold. All right, hold on to self for RIA group. Let's now turn to a consumer staple in, will these ears to stop conor asking about this? Now we see the Australian consumer has been under pressure giving cost of living, rising interest rates and the like, but remaining fairly resilient nonetheless expenditure, like Morgan Stanley in fact finding out that from its latest server that expended a shift in towards essentials value and convenience has actually had an effect on the staples as well. David and as we all know you compare this with Coals, one's up, one's down, vice versa. Yeah, very appropriate symbol, ASX symbol, wow, you know. when you look at the chart, I pitch out and how it's moved lately, that's wow, alright. You can see it's got a lot of selling resistance previously going back at that three years, especially at that $40 level. Just look at my numbers, this looks a bit expensive. I would certainly be taking some profits here. If you did buy, unfortunately, after buying way down to $20, $26, it's certainly be, I'd say, take some, be prudent to take some money off the table. Because it's just trading at a very high multiple PE, I think around 26, 30 times or something, it's ridiculous in my view. So I just don't, you know, can't see why you'd be buying this stock up here. If you've got it, hold it, or take profits, it'd be my thing, trim it. It's the best thing, and yeah, especially if it gets that $40 level, but I'd certainly be trimming. And, you know, I don't see this as being priced like it's a tech stock. Really, it's not far from it. Yeah, it's a consumer staple. So, you know, unless food prices are going to skyrocket, I mean, that's possible, and hopefully not. Well, you would think there'd be some relief there, given what's happening in the least. Yeah, exactly. So, yeah, it's just just a bit expensive and takes some money off. Andrew, what would you do with it? So, you may recall, it was probably a couple of years ago now, I was at $30 and I said it was the buy of the decade. And it's absolutely went to 26. But, here we are at $38. And, look, I agree with David, it certainly looking fully priced. It's a PE of 27 relative to the market, which is 16, albeit should trade at a premium because of its defensive nature. It's got earnings per share, forecast, growth forecast of about 12%. margins are OK. They've got a slightly better return on equity than goals. Well, is 35% goals is around 31%. Big W remains a big drag for them. So, on that basis, it's certainly a best to hold. And, today, it's point you could probably knock a few off. And, you know, wait for them to slip back into the low 30s. And buy them again. So, it's at best a hold. OK. So, let's sum up the first half of the show there beginning with our stock of the day. Woodside, Exxon mobile apparently showing some interest in woodside. And, also obviously, what's going on in the old price and the wake of that. And now it's a piece there between the United States and a run. So, Andrew would hold it at these levels. And, but saying that it looked like Exxon was really interested in having to certainly pay a premium. David has called it the most undervalued global energy giant. So, right, it is a double hole for woodside. Gold, also on the move. Obviously, in the wake of that news today, David, tell you look, catalyst metals. He would buy it. See that, look, it's made 100% margin there on his produce and the upside of the gold price that he's seen there. Andrew, saying look, out on the appeal for short covering there. Like that having seen that stock move today, he would more likely hold it though. He prefers new one and Capricorn metals. James Hardy. It's a sell from Andrew. Looking at potential growth concerns there. Also, they're ongoing governance issues that it's faced. And David's saying on the charts, and bullish patent emerging there, he would hold it. Warly. It is a sell from David, just in terms of the technicals, what he's seeing there. Whereas Andrew's saying, look, it is fairly priced from his point of view. He would hold it. RIA Group. A sell from Andrew. Say, look, the macro is not helpful. And short interest is rising in the stock. David's saying, look, there's bullish divergence. And that could see it bounce. So he would more likely hold it and finally there will ease a trim from David and Andrew would hold it. All right. So let's catch up with our own high conviction fund. It is picked by our Investments Committee. And going into June, the Committee left the little cash unchanged around 8% of the portfolio. Excuse me. Two stocks are out. Two in energy one and side-minder. And you can catch up with the reasons why they made those choices. If you head to osp.com. And so far the fund is up almost 33% on a cumulative return base since the beginning of March 2022. Keep those requests coming. It's hard for your money or your life. Now your money needs to work hard for you. Whether you're building, transferring or drawing down, the right information makes all the difference. At Osby's Retire you'll find the latest news and insight from trusted experts all in one place. Osby's Retire is powered by RAM. Retirement income done differently. So second half of the show we're going to take a look at EGAS Automotive Superloop, Life360 Hub24. And the Vanguard Miske Index International ETF. So let's go to EGAS Automotive APE. I'll ask you about this one. And it is the Australian's largest car and truck dealership group. And a lot of focus clearly on what's going on with the old combustion engine vehicles, their sales at the moment compare particularly with EVs. And very much focus there clearly in the midst of the war. And also it's now picked up that Canada one dealership network as well. And let's start with you. What do you think we're all yet given? Okay, let's assume that the war is over. Or a price has started to fall off. Is that EV trade and start to wind down? And perhaps are we going to see cheaper, you know, those combustion engine vehicles? Potentially, I mean, I think EVs are now part of the mix when I travel with work. I'm sort of ubering around the place and a number of the ubers that I'm catching are EVs. And when I talk to the drivers, they talk about the fact that the cost of running those styles of vehicles and much cheaper for them than a fossil fuel or a combustion engine. So there's going to be certainly some industry where it benefits. I certainly know here in regional Australia. I have very few clients that drive EVs in part because they're just isn't the infrastructure to support it. Relating to charging stations or for my ag clients, you know, having electric tractors and so forth. Anyway, on a bit of a bit of a bit of a it's not going to happen is what I'm saying in ag land in the short, but I'm on a bit of attention. I guess I look at AP eagers and I see that there's really two businesses going on. There's obviously the automated piece that we're just speaking about before that there's also the property and investment piece as well. It's almost like Harvey Norman, you know, whereby Harvey Norman, yes, they get the cash load by virtue of selling furniture and electronics, etc. But it's the underlying rent that's coming through from all the various properties around the place. So, you know, that could be another lens in which you look at this as well. From a business point of view, I think that EVs will continue to be part of the next, but I can certainly still see combustion or fossil fuels still being part of the mix as well. It's an undermanding PE. The PE is around 17 times relative to the broader market, which is around that 16 times. And you've got forecast earnings per year growth of around 16 to 17 percent next year as well. Unsurprisingly, it's a pretty low margin business. It's only about a 2 percent margin, but despite all that, they're still driving around a 15 percent return on sheer holders funds. So I think probably around these levels, Andrew, it's a hold. I know consensus, the 10 plus analysts who follow it, think it's probably worth closer to $27, but I'd probably have it at a hold at these levels. David. Yeah, look, if you look at my chart again, that this is a best I'd go with Andrew's call on that hold. It's not high growth business from what I can see on the numbers. It's the actual return of the equity has been declining over the last couple of years, and the earnings per share growth has been negative to flat. So that's, hence why you can see the share price there going down. I mean, look at that double top there back in September, October last year. Patent, that's a bearish patent. And then you see the moving average cross down the 50, the 20 below the 50. That was a sell out about $28.29 in my book, and you just would have stayed out of this completely. But if you've got it down here, I mean, look, it's getting supported, that little juncture where it bounced in March. Like I said, it best holds. But if it breaks below that $20, that would be out get out as far as I'm concerned. But I certainly wouldn't be buying it. I'd be elsewhere. This just doesn't look like a to me, and the numbers are high growth business. And it's slowed down quite a bit. But again, Yeah, you could hold it. That's that note. Yeah. All right, double haul, but far from it is yes, you've got to say, for five to 10 as far as he gives us concern. All right, let's head to Telco Land. That is the next stop. We're going to take a look at Super Loop. And Zayn asked me about this. Look, three segments that holds the market consumer business and wholesale. They have seen strong subscriber growth across the consumer business. Well, and also the wholesale segments as well. So overall, that growth there, David, what do you see? Oh, look on the chart. This thing is rocket it up. But this should probably put SpaceX change it to you. You think, I mean, look at this thing. It's just rocket it up, you know, from early 2024. Unbelievable. I don't know why. I would be a seller here. I got it to you. I don't see where they're like, you know, I just don't see where they're making it justifying a PE. It's about a hundred times. I don't get it. OK, they're, you know, they're in the telecommunications sector. They're like, geez, paying this kind of price up here. No way. I mean, look, definitely takes the money off the table here. If you're lucky, you get to hold it for the upside. But for my money, I would just take the money and run to take the truth. I just don't get, I can't understand why anybody would be paying this kind of multi. I mean, look, this is a $1.8 billion valuation. Just think about that for a moment. We just looked at catalyst, which is 1.3 billion with almost 300 million in the bank. That was at the end of March on a PE of four. I mean, which one do you want? OK, this one's sexy because there's, I don't know, whatever story they're running out there that's subscriber numbers going up. But the numbers just don't justify the valuation unless, I don't know, I'm missing something here. But in the telecommunications sector, there's a lot of competition, low margins, and then you've got space link coming in. So I would just avoid it completely and be out of it. That's for sure. So I'd be selling this and buying catalyst. All right, that's your trade. Andrew, can you any color? I mean, why has it run so hard? I don't like it when David holds back. I think he just tells us how it needs to feel. I think that's the important thing here. Why is it run so hard? I did listen to your question, Andrew. They've instituted a really strong turnaround program and forecasting more of the same. They've already tripled the number of clients or newly tripled the number of clients in 2023. And that's higher getting $1 billion in revenue growth in about $200 million in EBIT by 2029. So for those who aren't aware, superlip, was spun out of Megaport, and it's their physical networking business. So again, lots of sort of interest in that space. The David's right, the PE for this year is eye watering. If I could be so delicate, the forecast PE for next year is equally eye watering, but back to around 35 times, which is still looking at forecast earnings per share growth of 23%. So on that basis, the old PEG ratio, you're trying to buy companies whose PE ratios, the number is lesser than the forecast earnings per share growth, 35 versus 23. So it's too expensive. And consensus is about 375 versus the share prices of about 350. So it's certainly overpriced at these levels. So yes, it's a sell, but I would probably looking at buying back in at some stage. And I may be closer to that 3-Elemark, because if they can, continue to execute against that strategy. But David's will made point around other competitors coming in, are you Starlink or something like that, then that's certainly something that the market needs to be factoring in, but at these levels, it's a sell. All right, double sell for superlip, potential entry point there is Andrew mentioned. All right, now let's settle life 360. It's another one of those popular stocks we get here on the call that I'm asking about this. It's first good result was pretty much, which was positive, but the market there focusing on the growth there in, which was lower than expected. And, well, Andrew, I guess this is sort of caught up in the SaaS pocket, it surely wasn't it? It is, but yes, it is, but I guess I tend to look at it. And when I first looked at this company, Andrew and David, I sort of said to myself, well, you know, the Apple product, Find My, or what's the Samsung one, Find My Mobile from Samsung. They're free offerings relating to location based tracking your family or whatever the case may be for safety purposes. Then they would be a better product. I have a 14 year old daughter, happy birthday to my 14 year old today. She turns 14. No, I have a birthday. And she has all of her mates on life 360, apparently I'm paying in part for her social media addiction. In fact, it's in the top 10 social media apps in the world. So there's about 98 million users, only about 3 million. I'm one of those, only 3 million a pain, the other 95 million, sort of in this sort of freemium model. And what life 360 is trying to do is monetize those people, those guys and girls, through advertising. And, you know, it's a bit like Netflix, whereby there's actually probably more money to be made selling advertising than there actually is charging a subscription fee. So if you sort of look at it like that, yes, it's been caught up in the SaaS apocalypse relating to the valuation piece, but it's not really a business that the LLM, the large language models would really easily be able to replicate if more the big tech names I just spoke about before. And you're being asked to pay a PE of 21 times relative to the peers that are trading at 46 times. So on that basis, it's actually pretty cheap. Of course, forecast earnings per share growth is only around 16%. So that's sort of the tricky part for it. So while sentiment is going to be negative on it, it's a hold. But I guess what I'm saying is it's a real business. It's actually now starting to do an on-market share by back in the US because of the cash flow that's coming from this business. They will continue to increase those premiums or the subscription rather. So I like the business, but sentiment against the sectors negative so to hold on that basis. OK. Yeah, I'm driving that other bucket of the 95 million who don't pay. But we certainly use it to the point where my wife says, why are you there as she spies on me and my movements? David, what's the chart tell you? Well, yeah, it's interesting if you bring up my chart there. It's come down to a pretty big support level. But early last year, you can see there where I've got that blue line. Look at that rally. I mean, really incredible. From $5 up to a peak of $55, incredible. It's just like there you go. I mean, they weren't making money at all during that period. Now they are starting to. So look, it's starting to look like the trend could change. Starting to get some buying support from what I can see there on the weekly chart. So it would be a hold. Possible, yeah, speculative buy at this level. It's looking interesting how it's trying to form a bit of a bottom here. But again, it hasn't crossed the red still below the 20 below the 50. So it hasn't confirmed a change of trend. But yeah, look, I'd go with Andrew on this one. And it's a hold. But technically, it's interesting to keep an eye on this one. And it could get a bit of momentum and go all the way back up again. So this would be a great trading stock from that perspective. Yeah, my view. OK, trading stock. Watch out for that. OK, nonetheless, it is a double whole, potentially a speculative either from David. Let's now turn to 24 Ethan asking about this stock. It is the financial services company that has that integrated platform, tech, and data solutions it offers. And look, it's certainly gaining market share, particularly in Super. This would be interesting, particularly post budget and the changes that are coming in. And obviously the government try to push more people to increase super to obviously the limits they can. And in fact, yeah, winning that disproportionately in large part of the switching flows among the super funds. David, how does it look technically? It doesn't look great on the chart. You'll see why, because it's just crossed down. You see that? And you've got a lot of peaks, a lot of troughs here. So it wouldn't be a buy just technically. I mean, the company's really performed very well. It really has got some good earnings growth here. That's for sure, which was reflected in the share price. You can see. But right now, it's turned down according to the moving average crossing down as well. Yeah, so I wouldn't be holding this at the moment. I'll just be concerned about the trend right now. It is trading on a pretty high multiple as well. But look, just the sentiment-- that's my rule-- is you can't fight the sentiment you could be. argue to your blue or black in the face. So I've certainly discovered this the hard way. You think it's cheap, but it gets cheaper. And don't fight the trend is what I've learned. Time and time and is everything. So I look great business, really great business. Some in funds on the management's been growing. I think they're 160 billionals. And great return on equity as well. But just the valuation, I think you might be able to get cheaper, especially if you've got back down to about 50 bucks, where they had that spike load. That could be a good place to buy it. But yeah, right now the trend is not your friend. Yep. Only for that reason, yeah. Yeah, so you'll have a great run up until the end of last year. And then it's sort of just dissipated, didn't it? Interesting. So don't fight the trend. Andrew, would you? What are you seeing? Well, just as an advisor, managed to count. So a number of people who are watching and listening to this would use ComSec or CMC or NavTrad or your favorite platform of choice. That's as tight as platform. It's run by chess. They're run by the ASX through chess. The other alternative is, which is becoming very popular, is what we call a managed account. So people like Hub24, NetWolf, Premium, North, AMP, whereby there's a custodial function and a reporting function. And that is getting a favorite attraction with advises that they Hub24 have now got around 5,000 advises that use their platform, which if you consider an Australia, there's 14,000 advises in total, speaks to the fact that they're getting pretty good market penetration. And the average funds on a management with an advisor in Australia is about 85 million. Hub24, at this stage, is only about 24 million. So in other words, what they're saying is there's a big opportunity for them to go from 24 million up towards that advise at average of 85 million. So there's certainly an opportunity there. But to David's, well, may point in that chart, which was not looking very flash at all, despite the fact that their funds on a management went up 29% last year, despite the fact they've got a 23% return on share, hold us funds in a 27% margin. Like all the numbers make sense that the sentiment is off. I think partly though that sentiment is a function of the Aussie market. Now we've had a nice bounce the last couple of days. But it's pretty much the Aussie market's just gone nowhere for the last six or seven months. So that's probably the concern I would have. They make money when clients are making money. If clients are making as much money, they will make less money. They'll still make some money, but they'll make less money. So I'm probably more of a hold, but I absolutely will get David's coming from. And if you just turn your mind back to his chart, he had there before, I would say 65 to 70 is great buying. So, but it's a hold of these levels. - A hold in a cell for up 24. Right, let's finish with an ETF. And it is the Vanguard Miskey Index International Series hedged ETF. And while you look at the holdings there, Nvidia Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and so it goes. Well, I figure Adria there's going to be another one added, Churley. - Yeah, well, in fact, I thought that question might be coming. So I checked and yes, SpaceX will be included in the Morgan Stanley Capital Index, the Miskey, but it'll only be a small holding because this stage, it's only new. But yeah, certainly that is another reason which, people who want exposure to that type of thing. That might be something that could be something you'd think about, but more broadly, $7 billion funds under management, $1,275 international companies, importantly to note, Andrew and David, it's hedged. So subject to where the dollar is going, you don't have to turn your mind to that. It's got names like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and over the last 12 months, it's up about 27% and over the last five years, it's up about 12% per annum. If you want to play where the dollar's going and that's your thing, then there's the unhedged version, which is VGS, but for most of my clients and in our passive models, model portfolios, we use VGID. So to me, it's a long-term buy. David. Yeah, well, look, I know Henry Jennings and he's a big fan of your first Andrew. I think he calls you the ETF whisperer. Yes, for good reason. So you've got a big fan club out there, Andrew. And Henry's definitely one of them. But look at this. I mean, what a trend following the US market. But the only warning here for me, it's a hold. You see down the bottom there, I've got that RSI gain. It's just in the overbought, a little bit. Can you see it turning down? It's in that overbought, it's above 80 there. So that's just a little bit of your caution. It could have a little bit of a corrective move here, but still bullish. Look, you could see where going back to 2023 when the red, the moving average cross above the blue there, and it hasn't got, it hasn't crossed back down since then. And it still hasn't. So you've got to be bullish on this. There's no question. I'm just saying just where the RSI is at the moment, it's overbought. But you could see the RSI back and interesting in early 2025 that spike down. Notice what I was talking about before. There was a bullish divergence there. Well, there's a bearish divergence there because the RSI was starting to move down as the peaks were higher. And that was an early warning sign to be careful. And then it had that fall. But right now, it's just, look, it's in the overbought. It can stay in the overbought, but definitely a hold. And if it does correct a little bit here, you'd buy anywhere above that blue line at that moving average, which is around 190, 120, definitely with a trend like this. That's gotten no signs of slowing down. That's for sure. And yeah, so hold. - Hold. - Hold and that takes us to the end of the show. So let's set up second half then beginning with EGAS AutoMotive. And unenthusiastic hold from both essentially. Andrew talking about a large margin business there. David saying EPS growth has been negative. So nonetheless, they would still hold it. Superloop. Look, it has been on a stellar run there. And as a result, David would sell it. Take the money and run him as his view. Andrew would also sell, it's run on a strong turnaround that he says, but it is now just too expensive. Life 360, it is also a hold for buy. Maybe a specie buy from David, he would consider it. Just watch the levels there. Hub 24, it's a sell from David. Good and an extra negative sentiment on the chart that he sees there. And Andrew would hold it. And finally there, that ETF, the VGAD growth hedge fund there. ETF, it is a buy from Andrew. Should be surprised from Andrew. The ETF whisperers you say there, David. And also hold from David saying it, really looking a lot overboard on the chart at the moment. And that is the show. Terrific. I like those these shows where you get both the fundamentals and the technical. So well done, Andrew. Thanks for joining us from DBW Advisory. Thanks very much, Andrew. David, great doing that as well. We should do it more often. We were too hungry. Well, indeed. He's not this sick. We'll book it in. And David, thanks for joining us on Wealthwise Education. Pleasure. Nice being on this over the Andrew. And bring your charts along as well. And thanks to you for watching.