🚨Tarik Skubal to Have Elbow Surgery! - Emergency Podcast (5/4 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Now here's Frank Scott and Chris. As we said on last night's podcast, the injuries will not stop. Welcome into an emergency edition of fantasy baseball today on Monday, May 4th. I am Frank Samful, joined by Chris Towers. So I mentioned this on the podcast last week while watching Terrick Scoobles previous start. He was shaking his left arm. He had a trainer come out to look at it and he stayed in the game. He struck out the side velocity was there. We haven't heard anything since until now on Monday. He was scratched from his start and we learn that he is having surgery to remove loose bodies in his left elbow recovery. Usually two to three months could take longer as we've seen with some pictures, which brings us to like July or August. Chris, this is a massive blow. The consensus SP one in drafts this year. It just adds to a season that has seen a ton of injuries, a ton of picture injuries recently, Garakro Che with the shoulder, Hunter Brown with the shoulder, Hunter Greene with the loose bodies in his elbow, Spencer Schwelombak with the loose bodies, Nick Pavella, many more. So this just kind of adds to that. We'll get to the replacements, but this just kind of fits the theme of injuries this year. And I guess recent years for high end starting pictures. Yeah. The top three finishers and last year's American links are all on the IL. Garakro Che, Terrick Scoobal and Hunter Brown. They were also obviously three of the top, I don't know, eight pictures drafted in pretty much every league. You can look back and say there are red flags with any of one, any of these pictures, right? They all throw hard, but they've also all mostly been healthy the previous couple of seasons. So it's like injuries can very much happen to anyone at starting picture. They are the exception over the long run rather than the rule. And this is a good reminder that even when it looks like there are first round caliber pictures to draft, it is inherently more risky than taking a hitter in the first round. The payoff might be, you know, 275 strikeouts and a elite weapon, ERA and 20 wins. That's that's what made these guys worth the risk. But two of the top two of those three first round pictures have been on the IL within the first, what 45 days of the season? One of them, I don't know, maybe he'll only miss two weeks. Garakro Che, it sounds like that's possible, but Scoobal's gonna miss a lot of time. And it's just a question of, you know, I think the two-month time table is almost impossible. I'm not going to say it's never happened because I haven't done all of the research ever when a picture has had loose up loose bodies in their elbow. But from the research I have done, the average time missed for over the last five seasons for pictures who had surgery to remove either bone spurs or loose up bodies in their elbow is 113 days. And the median is 103 days. So you're looking more like three plus months right there. That would be my expectation. And then you start looking at like Rodan, his situation seems weird because he had the surgery in October. And he's gonna end up missing seven months basically. That that seems unlikely and it makes me wonder if there was something else going on there. But he did have the hamstring pop up. But I think they're also. Yeah, I guess you would have been back probably by mid April if not for that, but still six months. But then you have, you know, Shwellenbach had surgery in what August or February. And he's out until the All Star break. And Hurston Waldrip was around the same time. Sounds like he's maybe a little bit ahead, but it's probably going to be three plus months for him. Hunter Green was mid March. And he's going to be out until probably around the All Star break. So you're looking at four months for him. It's I think it should be viewed as more like three to four months. And then the elephant in the room, of course, is that Terrick's Google is a free agent at the end of this season. Yep. And is looking at the largest picture contract in major league history as long as he's healthy. And you can look at it both ways, right? You can say. He wants to he'll have to come back and show something at the end of the season to justify that kind of contract. I'm not sure that's actually true. Like if Terrick's Google gets to November and he's able to pass physicals and do everything you want, are you really going to get a discount on him just because he didn't pitch in August and September? Kind of skeptical that that's going to play any part in his marketplace. So there's a part of me that thinks selfishly if I was Terrick's Google, I'm not coming back this year. I have no reason to think he'll actually do that. And that's usually not how professional athletes approach these things, but he has every incentive to be cautious with this. Because the worst thing that could happen for him is he rushes back too soon, suffers some kind of setback and jeopardizes free agency. So I would say two months, it's not impossible, I suppose, but based on the history and his specific circumstance seems very unlikely. Yeah, I would bet it's August at the earliest that we see Terrick's Google again. Yeah, again, it's Monday, May 4th. So we're looking at early August in the best case scenario, but I lean with you towards it being like three to four months. Then we're getting into like, all right, it's September now. And look, for the Tigers, they are tied for first in the A L central right now. And obviously they have aspirations of competing in the postseason and making a deep run. They might just play it safe and say, all right, let's not push Google unless I guess they really need them and they're falling out of the standings, but assuming that they're anyone's going to run away with that division, you know, assuming that they're in the mix. I think that they can kind of, all right, let's get him back target date September 1st. He gets three to four starts in, get him built up. And by the time we get to the postseason, he's ready to throw like 80, 90 plus pitches and whatever it might be. Like you could totally see a scenario where the Tigers kind of play out the situation that way with Terrick's Google this season. And in the meantime, look, there is no replacing Terrick's Google for the Tigers or in fantasy. The Tigers, by the way, recently lost Casey Mines as well, who went to the I L with an adductor injury. So not really sure where they go. Sawyer Gibson long is still in the minors and had a little bit of upside at some point in the past. I mean, dude, you just look at the pictures on the I L for the Tiger for right now. Terrick's Google, Resolson, Casey Mines, Troy Melton, Jackson Job, Justin Verlander. Yep. That'd be a pretty solid six man rotation if all those guys were healthy. Yeah. And they're all on the I L right now. Yeah. I would guess Sawyer Gibson long gets called up. But Drew Anderson started in career last year and pitched really well and got a bunch of strikeouts. And he's been working in relief so far this season. He has posted a 13.7% swinging strike rate. So I look, I think deeper leagues just like, yeah, they might just give them a shot. They might not have a choice. Justin Verlander close to facing hitters. But that's what the Tigers are trying to think about doing. I don't think we're really looking at any of those players in fantasy. From just like an I L stash perspective right now, do you absolutely hold on to scuba in leagues that have limited or no I L spots? I think you're going to have to make a really tough decision this week because if you're in a league with no I L spots, that's I mean, half the season, probably more than half the remaining season that he's going to be out where you're going to get nothing from that roster spot. And look, I don't know about you, but I've got a lot of teams with a lot of injuries right now. I was looking at one of my it's a 12 team roto and my pitching staff lost Ryan Pepio for the season. Trevor Rogers, Casey Meyers, P Fairbanks, Cade Horton, Mick Abel, it's really rough out there. And I lean towards you're probably going to have to drop tariff scuba. I would wait until you have to, you know, I would wait until you just do not have another choice. But if it's between tariff scuba and Trevor Rogers, I think you have to drop tariff scuba, right? Yeah, I mean, not the Trevor Rogers, Trevor Rogers is nowhere near tariff scuba, but he's on the aisle with an illness. He should be back soon. And I know his last couple starts before that and look, this is very situationally dependent. But if you have a pitcher that's returning sooner and has a modicum of upside, then I think you probably have to hold on to that picture instead of tariff. Carlos Rodón, you got to drop scuba hunter greenie, then who's a couple months away. I think you'd have to drop scuba. Yeah. And there's a lot of guys that are getting ready to return to like Nicoladolo. Obviously, you're holding someone like him over scuba. So I agree. I think it depends on your situation. You might have a team on the NFBC where there's no IEL spots where you don't have a single injury. You might be able to make it work like that. But chances are given all the injuries, right? Like brand new wood, like just a bunch of other pitchers also on the aisle right now. It it makes it really tough. So I agree. I would try my best to hold on to scuba as long as you humanly can. But lots of tough decisions coming this weekend. Let's take a quick break when we return. How do we replace tariff scuba in fantasy? You don't, but we'll try right after this. Welcome back in emergency edition of fantasy baseball today. Massive news, tariff scuba, having surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. The timeline that Jeff pass and gave us two to three months sounds very optimistic. We are leaning more three to four months here on the podcast. So August could be September 4, Terrix. How do we replace him in fantasy? I think in shallow leagues, we have talked a lot about interesting names, the past couple of weeks, names that have emerged. So Peyton Toley, Noah Schultz, Spencer Errogate, Kyle Harris and Chase Dolander. Those are the names that we've really kind of hammered home over the past couple of weeks and could maybe still be out there in some shallower formats, but I think in most leagues that they're probably scooped up already. So how do we rank this next group of talent? JR Richie, Logan Henderson, Kade Cavali, Max Meyer. We might have even done this on last night's podcast, Chris, but I guess we'll do it again. How do you rank those four? JR Richie Henderson, Cavali, Max Meyer. It's always a little nerve wracking when you ask a question that we probably answered yesterday because I've got a famously terrible memory and I might give a completely different answer than what I gave yesterday. You know what? Maybe you slept on and you realized, "Oh, Max Meyer." That's definitely. - He's really good. - No, I think I would go. Gosh, I think it's Meyer Henderson Richie Cavali. Now, that's all slightly different because it depends on when you're listening to this, right? Because if you are listening on Monday before lineups lock and you can go add them, well, JR Richie's a two-star pitcher and I believe Kade Cavali is a two-star pitcher. So you might prioritize them just because I don't know if the difference between any of these guys is big enough that you shouldn't prioritize the guys with the immediate two-star upside. But just as a general rule, I think long-term, I would go Meyer Henderson Richie Cavali. I think it was the order I gave, right? - Yeah, I lean that way too. It's tough because I would put Meyer at the top just because I feel best about him having a starting role in the Marlins rotation. But once you get into Henderson and Richie, I mean, they could be one bad start away from being demoted. - Absolutely. - And not that it's technically their fault because they both have upside, but the braves have, I guess, other options that they could go with in the meantime and the brewers have always kind of-- - The brewers have tons of depth. - Been weird about Logan Henderson and giving him a real opportunity. So I think they have a lot of upside, but there is a lot of just downside. - Absolutely. - I don't know if it's start to start basis with both those guys. And then Cavali, yes, he has some upside as we've seen back-to-back, double digit strikeout starts, but he also walks a ton and he has like a 160 whip, so he has his warts as well. - He has one good pitch. - Yeah, moving further down the list, we get to names like Sean Burke and Christian Scott, Connor Prelyb, Griffin Canning, who racked up a bunch of whips this weekend. And look, now we're getting more into like 15 team leagues, things like that where the waiver wire is not gonna be very good. Chris, how would you rank this group? Sean Burke, Christian Scott, Connor Prelyb, and Griffin Canning. I mean, there was some interesting stuff with Canning with like the stuff metrics. They seemed to really like what he did in his debut. I don't really buy it. I don't really see what the models were seeing there, but I think I would go Burke, Prelyb, Scott, Canning. But, there are, either like, I think Lewis Everino has done some interesting stuff lately. And he walked like 19 in his first 20 innings or something, but the past two starts have been very good, I believe, and it's because the walks have come down. So he's throwing a little harder this year. Jansen Junk is showing some interesting stuff with the improved stuff there. I can't imagine Brian Beo's gonna be this bad forever, although it's a 90-RA, so it's hard to actually suggest him. So a few other names out there. I mean, we learned earlier today that the Marlins are kind of looking into the health of Chris Paddock. So if Chris Paddock is whatever, scratch from his next start or whatever, Phantom Ielston, Real Ielston, whatever it is, if he's out, Braxton Garrett, and Robbie snowing our two names that have showed a lot of upside in the minors this year. And I keep having to be the bear of bad news for people because everybody's reaction to that paddock report was, "Oh, Robbie's snowing time, it's almost certainly gonna be Braxton Garrett." They don't have a 40-man Ielston spot or roster spot right now, Garrett's on the 40-man, snowing's not. Snowing has more upside. Garrett is good, though. Like Garrett has been a good Major League pitcher. His ERA is up, or his velocity is up this season. He's been good at Triple A so far. So I do want to make sure people aren't totally overlooking Braxton Garrett. And then I'll throw out a name that might shock people, but Roki Sasaki looks like he belongs over his past two starts. I don't totally buy it, but this new harder splitter, he seems to command it a lot better. It seems like a pitch he can throw both for whiffs and for called strikes. So he actually went six innings, I believe, for the first time in his MLB career in his most recent start. And the walks have been down lately. And there may be something there with Roki Sasaki. It's a deep league play for sure, but that's another name to consider. These are all, I understand, deeply, deeply, deeply disappointing names to hear as your tariff school will replacement. And so you should probably be trying to make some trades. All right, let's talk about some Bilo options. I think on the high end right now, Brian Wu coming off his, I believe, worst start of the season. Logan Webb actually coming off his best start of the season, but the overall number still look pretty bad. Cole Reagan's is a tough one because he's supremely talented, but is he kind of dealing with that thumb injury? He took a comeback off the hand earlier in the season and feels like he hasn't been himself since then. So I think those are three higher end names, but also come with some risks. So Brian Wu, Logan Webb, Cole Reagan's, and then Chris, I'll just start a bunch of names and you tell me who your favorite might be to try and buy or what might be realistic. So Kyle Prattish, I can already hear the people yelling through their phones and in the comments are coming out on YouTube. Kyle Prattish thinks, why would you trade for him? Spencer Shredder just made his return but didn't look great in that first start. Couple of their names getting closer to return, Nick Ladolo, Carlos Rodón. And then just kind of feels like some pure Bilo candidate, Smathi Boyd, Yuri Perez, Boba Chandler, Nathan of Aldi, Jesus Lazardo. Take that wherever you want to go with it. Yeah, look, the thing is, unless you're going to gut your team elsewhere in order to buy an ace, you're gonna have to buy a flawed pitcher. And so the choices you're going to have to make are do I buy a flawed pitcher who probably doesn't have upside, but maybe it's a little safer? I don't really think that's worth the squeeze, honestly. Like you're trying to replace Terrick Scoobal. You know, you're gonna have to aim big. You're gonna have to take some big swings. And so yeah, I'm looking at Logan Webb. I don't think he's just lost it. I think he just isn't pitching well right now. And I think those are different things. And so I have a lot of faith that Logan Webb will figure it out because we see ups and downs from him throughout his career, but he always writes the ship. He's very much like Framberfall does in that way. Cole Reagan's, he does not have the super long track record. He's got the one great season and then one really good partial season, or at least one partial season where he got a lot of strikeouts but had a high year A and the velocity's there. He's not throwing his slider at all right now. He barely threw his change up his most recent start. He's clearly not right. Whether it's he's not healthy or he's just dealing with something mechanically, whatever it is, Cole Reagan's needs to pitch better. Moving forward. It's the same thing with Kyle Bradge, but both of those guys, there's a reason we were ranking them as top 15 starting pictures coming into the season. And I still believe they have that kind of upside. I don't think Spencer Strider has top 15 upside. But I actually do think this is a decent time to try to buy low on Spencer Strider because there was a lot of conflicting opinions about Spencer Strider coming into the season. And then he made one start at Cores Field. And every response I've seen, every reaction I've seen so far to Spencer Strider's one start is, oh, he's done jump ship while you can. He's gonna be a disaster this season. And look, maybe, like that's not out of the question, but he was pitching a Cores Field. You cannot learn anything about a pitcher from how they look at Cores Field. It's not even a results thing. The ball literally moves differently at Cores Field. That might be why he couldn't throw strikes yesterday. Might not be, he might be bad. I'm totally open to that possibility, but I'm not gonna give up because of one bat. I'm not changing my opinion on Spencer Strider based on one start at Cores Field. So I do think there's an opportunity to buy low. And there is still some upside there. Ladolo, I really like. There's some risk. The blister has been a problematic issue for him in the past, but if he's healthy, I think he'll be very good. Carlos Rodon. I kind of just suspect him to be himself. Now that's risky because Carlos Rodon has been very up and down over the past couple of seasons, but the last two have mostly been good. So I tend to think that's a good buy. I buy Matthew Boyd. And then Yuri Perez and Bubba Chandler, it's a bet on ceiling that has not come close yet. And you might be able to get Yuri Perez for pretty cheap. I've seen some people saying they want to drop Yuri Perez. You should not drop Yuri Perez, but if someone in your league has Yuri Perez and they're very frustrated, I'd be going out and offering, I don't know, someone who I drafted 170th and see if that's enough to go get Yuri Perez because I still think at some point, he's gonna be one of the best pitchers in baseball. It just hasn't happened yet. Bob a Chandler. A I still think he's going to be very good. I have no idea if it's gonna happen this year, but the upside is absolutely there if he figures it out. And so that's the point I wanna hammer home is, I don't think you are going to replace Tarek's schoolable by like, I don't know, streaming Kumar Rocker and, you know, trading for Seth Luga. Like, I'm not saying those guys are terrible or useless, but you're probably not replacing an impact picture with guys. You're gonna need to take some chances. And that might involve holding your nose and trading for Kyle Bradish and hoping that, however bad he's been so far, it's just him tinkering and just him trying to figure it out. Because if he gets back to who he was just in 2023, let me just top five in Saiyung voting. If he's who he was in 2024 and 2025 around the Tommy John surgery, we're talking about a top 12 picture in baseball. So I think these are the types of swings you have to make that, yeah, they might not go well, but you know what, it's not gonna go well as not having Terrick's Google. So you have to come up with a way to overcome that, not just find pictures who don't have downside. Avoiding downside doesn't matter at this point. You need to shoot for the ceiling. - Of all the names that we just mentioned, I think the five that I would try hardest to acquire by low right now if I lost Terrick's Google, or even if you just wanna buy low on a picture right now, Brian Wu based on what we saw last season, I think the strikeouts will get better. Kyle Bradish, again, I know people don't want them, but it's fine. Nick Lidolo calls Sordon coming back from the injury. I liked Lidolo a lot coming into the year. - Also mentioned Garicol. - Yeah, yeah. Garicol, I mean he hasn't looked as sharp and he's coming back from an elbow injury of his own and a massive surgery at this point in his career, but yeah, he has a name we're throwing out there. So for me, Wu, Bradish, Lidolo, Rodon, and Yuri Perez. I think Perez, although I was a little bit more worried about him coming into the season, I think now's a good time and he does possess the upside that you are looking to replace when you lost out on a Tarek schoolable. So I do think that would make a lot of sense to go out and try and do that right now. Again, the massive news here on Monday, Tarek schoolable scratch from his start, he is having surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow and we're looking at my guesses at least three months that he is going to miss this season. We are gonna wrap there for Chris, I am Frank. Thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Baseball today. Please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Abler Spotify and we will be back again later tonight. Bye-bye. [MUSIC PLAYING] Paramount podcasts.