Target These Second Year QBs ✅ 2026 Fantasy Football
51m 15s
This episode focuses on year-two quarterback breakouts for fantasy football, highlighting four names, with two first-round picks—Cam Ward and Jackson Dart—as primary examples. The hosts argue that rookie seasons often anchor perceptions, but environmental changes can spur improvement. Cam Ward, the first overall pick, possesses elite arm strength and gunslinger mentality, but his rookie stats were abysmal: bottom-seven in EPA per dropback and a league-leading 11 fumbles. His Titans infrastructure was awful—bad offensive line, receivers, and a fired coaching staff—leading to self-inflicted mistakes and a lack of trust in protection. The hosts are split on his outlook: one sees potential for a Jordan Love-like trajectory due to arm talent and a better supporting cast (e.g., adding Van Jefferson and Calvin Ridley), while the other doubts a quick fix, citing his accuracy issues, slow processing, and a poor environment that may take multiple years to overcome. Jackson Dart, drafted by the Giants, offers a contrasting profile: a strong rusher (second in total EPA on the ground) with decent arm talent and accuracy on the run, but average arm strength. His rookie season featured a favorable scheme that accentuated his running, but he needs to improve as a passer. With a healthier offensive line and better weapons (Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney), his floor is secure, but his ceiling depends on passing growth. Overall, the hosts are more optimistic about Dart’s immediate impact, while Ward’s success may require patience.
[MUSIC] This is an important episode. I mean, last year you saw that quarterbacks took massive leaps from year one, two, year two. And that board itself out in terms of fantasy points. It being Drake May finished as the quarterback two in points per game after being drafted as the quarterback 13. Last September, Caleb Williams, the quarterback eight in points per game after being drafted as the quarterback 14. And conversely, Jane Daniels drafted as the quarterback three finished a, you know, up down, stop, start year as the quarterback 17 in points per game. So let's talk about here today the year two breakouts at quarterback four names Hayden and three guys locked into their starting jobs. And one who probably will draw a few starts this year too. >> Perhaps so what depends on how you would grade those starts from last year. I think what you said just throwing out some of those quarterbacks, there was very clear narratives and about the rookie seasons that you had to make the argument. Is it going to get better or was that just kind of the baseline for what there there is that was Caleb Williams and the sacks that was Drake May just being a playing a little bit quicker and then using his legs a little bit more accuracy, all those type of things where like, you can see the potential, are they going to hit it? Is there something about the college profile to the growth of the rookie year? There's a lot of little things we have to kind of nitpick. I think of these guys in this next crop of guys they have a lot to work on. >> Harp on that point a little bit more. So often once we see these college quarterbacks in the NFL, their rookie season almost anchors the opinion on what it is for the remainder of their rookie contract. And so we're going to talk about that opinion that we have from them, not just as prospects, but as rookies and then what can improve and what might not. And for me, I know so much of the improvement or scaling down a bit can come from the environmental change. So we'll factor others in here today. So we're not going to go by ADP order where these guys are being drafted on underdog right now. By the way, we're going to do that when we talk about tight ends, running backs and wider receivers the rest of this week in our year two breakout week. And so we're going to start with where these guys were drafted in the actual NFL drafts. So let's kick things off with Kim Ward, we know the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Right now being selected as quarterback 22, the fourth pick of the 12th round. What did you see when reviewing, I'll say it, all of Kim Ward's dropbacks during his rookie season. Very up and down, I really hope Kim Ward turns out to be a guy because the arm strength is its eight year stuff. And there was some ridiculous throws both instruction and out of structure rolling to his right rolling to his left. And he can really whip it in there. He's kind of an old school gunslinger type. And he's got the arm talent. Where if this thing clicks, then you're going to have a fun quarterback. Unfortunately, there's not a single statistical argument in favor of Kim Ward. We're talking about QV38 and EP or Dropback 39th and passing success rate 40th, Inketchable ball, right ball rate. That was out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks. Cavia Tzar, the offensive line was bad, the scheme was bad, the receivers were even, I would say worse than the other two factors in there. Things got a little bit better, but it's not fixed for Kim Ward. And then I think I have some issues just based off his own tape where he really has to progress here. Not just to be like a good quarterback, I think there's a lot of progression that needs for him just to even be an average quarterback in the NFL right now. Interesting. He was selected as the number one overall pick. He did not play statistically, as you said, like you want the number one overall pick to do. But I would say my observation, my belief in him is kind of unchanged of who he is as a player and how he needs to win. And in the NFL, as it was with him entering the league, we talked about it. He just has a dynamite arm and you see it on definitely these like posts and corner routes that these sideline passes that to me, he throws with anticipation to layer it in on these intermediate and especially downfield passes. They can come from all awkward angles, but man, the law, the trajectory, the velocity, it pops out of his hand is a lot of fun. But then like you said, you look at the underlying numbers, bottom seven EPA per dropback since 2016 among quarterbacks. Also in that time frame, only to Sean Kaiser had a lower success rate. But you know me, Hayden, I like to factor in the environment that he played in. And boy, oh boy was it absolutely brutal. And you know, some of the first round picks that they spent on the offensive line haven't really worked. I'll look at you at right tackle. And then at left tackle and Dan Moore, not great. And then having to literally thrust and build a passing attack at times around Alec Imanor and Chimiri DK and like Van Jefferson, as we went through and through. And then starting seasons off with like against the Denver Broncos, for example, from start to finish when your play collar and head coach also gets fired mid season. This is somewhat similar to like a situation that Caleb Williams found himself in during his rookie year. But you know, you and I had real confidence that Caleb immediately would come in in year two and like take it to multiple notches, not just the surrounding talent, but also the play collar and head coach. Were you on that spectrum that Kim Ward can do something similar here in your time? I have my doubt just because the Titans infrastructure still I think really bad like I like car and L. T for sure. Do you know who their center is? Do you know who their other guard is it's still the same. Back up center for Brian Debal or yes, has played underneath him in the past. So yes, a lot of day ball buddies here. Yes. And then a table which by the way, Debal was fun for Jackson Dart in terms of like fantasy points because he kept calling these run plays cam Ward. I think so fine athlete you just really never see it in terms of the ground game and I think that's going to be the hard part because the Jackson Dart Dropbacks would get to there was a bunch of creativity in the past team. And he's going to have to build that for for cam Ward so excluding all the like you know environmental factors here just like getting back to what cam Ward the process and all the type of stuff. I thought his accuracy was a little bit underwhelming the arm talent is about just delivering the football instantaneously with a ton of RPMs I thought him layering the ball was a little bit more hit and miss the downfield stuff was really bad in terms of catchable ball rate which was kind of surprising to me and it's not an arm strength issue. It's kind of the accuracy and I do think we talked about this in his cam Ward Miami film is there is be sometimes where he was a tick late and he had the arm talent to still rifle in there and he would make good on that in the NFL I think him being a tick late did kind of catch up to him. He had a really bad pick six on a check down where he just did not check things out on other drop backs I thought there would be somebody coming open he was a little bit late by the time he rifled in there then you have an interception there and then the other weird thing that came up with him is these fumbles he had 2025 leading 11 fumbles he has tiny hands if for those that care about this some of them were so on the wind up sometimes you'd be kind of scrambling around the ball get kind of hit a lot of these were kind of self inflicted and that had me a little bit kind of spooked because if the environment is going to stay in the game. And he's making mistakes that are just purely based on him that's where I'm worried about the 2026 version of cam Ward here just because I still don't trust the Titans infrastructure. I mean two years ago the Titans had a season with Will Levisa quarterback he had one of those you know mind numbing plays that seemed like at least one every single game. It was funny you and I knowing that came where's going to go first the Titans said Buckley your seat belts Titans fans because here kind of get similar things here with came word. Like one time per game he made a play that literally would destroy drive give it to the opposition just craziness and I think that sometimes comes from him wanting to you know change the outcome of a contest on every single drive like he is a big play hunter and you'll see that with how long he holds onto the football how much he wants to drift and drift and drift. I think Brian Debal wants to change that this year like adding one deal Robinson for example gives you a quick access player right someone who can win easily back foot release it choice routes all that type of stuff you also have some like Colonel Tate who can go up and is a technician as an outside wider receiver I really every level of the field a trusted pair of hands that you can't point to last year having that I mean there are these plays against like the Broncos I think this was in week one if I'm not missing. Where second and eight deep in his own half he is really wide open on a dig route but the right tackle gets pushed back into his lap a bit so instead of kind of trusting his projects progression excuse me and his protection he drifts and buys time and he still throws it to Calvin really on like the opposite side of the field out of structure for a game of 12 even though in structure in phase that past could have been right there for also a game of 12 yards but then two plays later he hits that same dig route over the middle of the field but then Calvin really drops it. On top of it so I even saw like progression in games however you didn't see progression for the entire season just because of the useless a bombable like awful environment that he was in almost gave a platform for zero type of success or consistent yeah yeah I saw the same thing the out of structure plays were nice they were not so bankable like when we were watching Caleb Williams we're like all right yeah love. The level of athleticism from Caleb Williams like this is going to happen forever cam wore the tear below that even if they have the same kind of you know arm talent Caleb Williams just moving differently Drake may his scramble ability just a way different tier then what we're dealing with with cam wore and I thought that the floor remains pretty concerning because there were a lot of sacs that were cam ward sacks and then you said too long too long and that's and that's it's exactly what we said about him in college where we're going to be really excited it's going to be a little bit of a lot of fun and fun to watch. It's gonna hopefully take not as much time as I think it is after studying this tape.
And maybe you can turn to like this Jordan love type of player who holds on the ball throw is the ball down the field But the arm talent takes over We're pretty far away from that in my opinion I think if cam warts gonna hit it's gonna take multiple years from now And I think that you have a lot of work on work to do to kind of speed up this thing And then also he the mistakes just cannot be I'm fumbling the ball in the pocket for fumble sixes the other way Right, and hopefully those are just rookie mistakes and hopefully it's just because he doesn't trust the right tackle plate Caller, LHK, humanore all those type of things, but at some point the success rate is so low That to get to league average this is gonna take a little bit longer than I was hoping for yeah There's a difference in you know Missing a sideline route and throwing it out of bounds and like that's a negative play versus your negative play Against the Miami dolphins like just losing a fumble for no reason just a total lack of protecting the football It's interesting and this goes back to exactly as time with the hurricanes where I think when He puts his foot in the dirt and is decisive on scrambling He has some really nice moments of picking up 12 to 13 yards And I really hope that Brian Dayball can coax that out of him versus just as hold on to it hold on to a mentality And then there were a couple of place where moving laterally and getting to the corner that he could evade some sacks But I'm kind of 50 50 split on if he has the athleticism that can stain that as his career goes along Because it almost felt like to me. Oh, he just evaded that versus actually having like a real burst loading to be Dangerous in that area. I just overall maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying I believe I'm more optimistic that he can actually turn around immediately that he can be a really fun watch and a really enjoyable Quarterback here this season because just the environment's gonna get so much better and that combines With that he has a short memory like he'll make those mistakes and then oh in the fourth quarter even if I'm down by 13 points. I see a one-on-one shot. I'm taking it and I again I think that's a great mentality to have just to go quickly into the Structural environment he had last year the Titans were first in NFL with 78% of their snaps being 11 personnel Okay, well using shifts of motions at the second lowest rate in the league and then they were under center Just 25% of the time that was 24th in the league and also number one in three by one sets So everything was vanilla everything was a bit static. It was a bit stationary It wasn't creative at all It didn't feel like he had a bunch of open receivers once he hit the end of his drop And then when he did fire it into these tight windows or downfield shots or one-on-one stuff He didn't get a ton of help and a lot of those situations and then when other things did go well He held it on too long and had some misses on toss it. So again, it was like this circular Cycle that was kind of self-eating at this point and you just couldn't escape that during his rookies He's in the defense was bad So hopefully the defense had a lot of players on defense press Robert Salah that hopefully like he can stay ahead of the change You can get a little bit different of an offense I think treats wise like I would be curious if you have like a good comp for like a high end outcome Jordan love is kind of like the North star for me just like as a prospect That's still the path. I'm hoping he takes and I think that Jordan love flashes a little bit of athleticism But nothing too crazy. He's just going to win by having crazy arm talent I just think that when Jordan love saw the field after sitting for a little bit He was just kind of a lot further ahead on this timeline than cam ward and remember cam ward's an air raid guy So I think there could be a little bit of a transition time the underdog pick and lobby It's only at 17 and a half touchdowns here So like the bar is pretty low. There's like setting expectations and I do fear that How intriguing his five 10 best plays of the year is a little bit kind of you know coding over like what happened on a play by play basis So I I had a lot of fun watching him. I really hope he's good I'm maybe kind of have my eyes towards 2027 and 2028 Rather than like being super optimistic for this year week one I just want the structure to have some semblance to it and then for it to be on him if he fails versus You know a couple times for game. It's on him that he fails But then many others that someone is slipping or sliding or blowing a block or dropping a pass and Give him a platform to have a real chance for from multiple weeks The other part of this though and it's kind of been swept from the rug this off season Is that he suffered a shorter injury during the final game of the season He did avoid surgery on this right ac joint sprain his throwing shoulder Um, I'm sure everyone believes he's gonna be perfectly healthy entering the year But that is something that obviously when you prepare for the draft you don't have as much time as other quarterbacks do Getting ready for a season and preparing for that and then right now whatever time he does miss That is also kind of impacting whatever potential year to jump you can have right before we get to the next name Our goal this year and even ahead maybe just a couple months 200,000 subscribers here on the channel. Yeah sure first we have to get 175k but Look we want to be the source for you to help you win your face if a ball draft That's it. We want you to beat up your buddies win your league and uh have a bit more cheddar at the end of the season So our entire goal this summer is to create actionable and good entertaining info for you here on the youtube channel And that forces you to subscribe so it's totally free to all of you and thank you to everyone who has hit that button and watched it Over the last five years. Let's put it that way. All right. The other first round quarterback Jackson dart from your favorite team the new york giants right now being selected as quarterback 12 the 10th pick of the 8th round When you went back and watched Jackson dart what did you see? I think there's a pretty promising player with Jackson dart just looking at a statistically real quick 13th and EPA per play 17th and success rate per play using per play because a lot of the stuff is based off what he did as a rusher Is the second most total EPA only trailing Josh Allen on the ground I do think that's here to stay for the most part because he is he's quite the athlete I think comfortably he's a top 10 athlete among starters in the NFL We're not talking about jaden daniels. We're not talking about Josh Allen that next tier down I do think Jackson dart is firmly in there and that provides a floor He has a ways to go as a passer but when I'm watching like shake zack bond in open field Putting his head down. He was like splitting defenders on tape. I think that's a real stuff That's gonna buy him time to get more comfortable As a passer where I think that he has pretty decent arm talent and something fantastic I think he can throw the ball on the run. He's pretty dang accurate. He's aggressive So he's like ninth in pfs big time throw rate. He doesn't have crazy arm strength I think that's average maybe even teetering towards like maybe even below average like among like NFL starting Calibre so I think that puts him like I think stylistically similar to russo wilson But just does not have the same exact velocity on his throws But I do think we have a foundation here. I think it is worth noting out noting that he didn't play with milk neighbors last year Like the infrastructure around him. I would say it was not Yeah, he might not again this year, but hopefully the offensive line plays better They added a first rounder and your Thomas gets back and actually is like fully healthy to go That the infrastructure around him is a little bit better because if you're looking at the infrastructure versus his results Pretty good season for Jackson Dart By knowledge and sure also you're kind of talking about the players around him because I would say actually the the scheme that was created for him Did accentuate a lot of his strengths? I agree. Yeah, I mean Brian Dable just like did not care if he was gonna be in the concussion 10 at all Like he had to go win those games and for fantasy purposes like that was that was awesome And that being a low-end quarterback one Down the stretch there. I just think that the the scheme Passing wise and there was a lot of like drop passes from Theo Johnson Which now they have Isaiah likely some drop balls from Darius Slayton. Hopefully that's Malik neighbors and Darnel Mooney Hopefully can catch some more passes And then the offensive line was really injured in the red area. They couldn't move They didn't have anybody to win one-on-one situations I don't think we're gonna have that perfectly this year But still the fact that Jackson Dart was able to escape and have like league average stats on like the advanced metrics Dispied all that I think is pretty promising here to me what I love about him is that he has the same level of confidence In his teammates as he does in himself Like he trusts his guys he gives them a chance even if he shouldn't based on a lot of things that you said So I think with better players more plays will be made now I also believe there's a question if he has better players around him this year definitely in the offensive line Like that matters a lot and we'll get into the offensive line element in a little bit But we need Malik neighbors like a true number one to be on the field for a long stretch of the season And at his best because that makes a difference and if not you're kind of going in this role player-ish range Which can be a bit high variance and it doesn't really necessarily change and dictate what the defense is going to do I agree with you that leading off with his mobility is the right way of doing this and then that will buy him time To hopefully develop more as like your typical top tier quarterback passer or like above average quarterback passer because To me I was a bit nervous of like how often his eyes dropped but In that area he did have the effodacism to avoid the pressure. There's a lot of movement in that to like Again, that's how he was able to kind of change the numbers in the secondary one of his favorite plays this year Was for the past rush to get up field him to climb
up. There were these two sitting linebackers over the middle of the field. One or both would then converge on him so he doesn't scramble for eight, ten yards. And then he would just loft the ball over their heads. And there would be like your in-breaker, your dig route, even if it was kind of an extended play. And necessarily in the structure of an offense. So you got a whole bunch of those kind of extended plays that on a weekly basis, you wonder if they could you know, repeat themselves week on week. They did then. I do wonder if defenses are going to kind of change how they cover him a little bit more this season. Yeah. Yeah, I think that would be the bad outcome. I do think that he's just such a good athlete that I think that's just going to be the reality for Jackson Darflick the next five to ten years. And I do think that he's an NFL starter and I have like no questions that the giants are going to commit to him for a very long time. I thought like the the floor here was was pretty solid. I think he is definitely on this Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts. I'll throw out, you know, Bo Nick's type of spectrum here where you have a good athlete. There's some very clear things where if you're an offensive coordinator, you want to be gravitating towards. And then hopefully Jackson Darflick can get more familiar inside the pocket. I was looking at some of the splits. His red zone numbers were horrific. And there was he had a fumble. He was trying to make too many plays out of structure. I think going back and watching all of them, there are some elements like he did not have a one-on-one guy and I thought huge ends the red area. And then also he had the worst splits against two high shells versus not. And I think both of those red zone two high shells, the best quarterback you got to have the right path instantaneously throw it on the money. Know where you're going to be very decisive and it's also helpful to have somebody that you could throw the ball to consistently. That's where he struggles. And there was just too many times the Saints won one of the worst reps by any quarterback a dig route. I mean, wide open. The offensive line is doing their job. He's staring at the guy should be throwing the ball to kind of breaks out from their missus m fumble. There's another play where a dig route's coming open laid on it. Then that turns to an interception. He does not have the best eyes right now. And that was some of the things the concern of playing in a lane, kiffin offense where things are a little bit more half field reading now. The positive thing is with experience, that's the type of thing that hopefully can get better like all of a sudden like an unathletted quarterbacks. There's not going to be coming to great athlete where I do think there's maybe some more progression with Jackson Dart as he gets away from the air radi lane kiffin offense into a more structured hardball under center play action offense, which is not this is not what he's used to at all. By do you think three years from now if you can just see the field a little bit better, the other tools are locked and loaded. So that's why I'm taking a pretty optimistic look here. We've talked about this often, but so frequently rushing and mobility at quarterback is linked to a player ceiling when it really should be linked to their floor. Because in this case like you are talking about the floor being just his ability to buy himself not only time in a play, but in his career to learn more and become a viable passer from the pocket in the structure of everything because that is what translates year over year. It's fascinating that you mentioned Russell Wilson. I know you did on Twitter as well because that's an interesting comparison from the angle that you brought it up, but also because there was a period of time where everyone in you know the football cognizant day said let Russ cook give him the keys to the offense run less, throw more. That's the high CPA. That's where the big plays come from all that type of stuff. But then when you listen to all the Seahawks that now maybe have podcast from that era and also you know you talked to someone like Michael Sean Duke are who does a fantastic job covering that team. Russell is able to have those late game moments because of the running game. Like you didn't have to rely on Russell Wilson to carry your offense on every single series because he wasn't going to stand there and read it out play after play. And on some level the giants are kind of using those same buzzwords this offseason a bit like reading between the lines top 12 pick on an offensive lineman. They were in an all the big time running backs according to Jordan run on when you talk about Ken Walker to Travis ETN to hoping to draft Jeremiah love even despite all that you listen to Harbaugh and Matt naggy and everyone saying quote we want to run the football. And then when we get into favorable situations this is my conclusion from them then that's where you can get these you know moments of magic from him. You can ask Jackson dark to like have a cool ass play three or four times a game versus asking him to do it 13 to 14 times per game. So yeah to me he's more of like a see it throw it kind of guy. And that's why again when I talked about having the rush converge and him using his athleticism to not just go north and south but also east and west and he longing elongating these plays that allows the coverage to get stretched out to the play to kind of break down and then he can and he makes some really cool decisions that like he really does reset and like you know push past the ball and do all this flick of the wrist but then it also goes into why he was to me such a bummer inside of the red zone because everything is so condensed in that area that you really can't stretch everything out that it's much more difficult to eat long gate those snaps and that's when you kind of to play on time in rhythm and everything of that sort and that's where I'm going to look immediately in weeks one through three and see if that is progressed. Yeah and usually when we're like he's not reading things out properly usually that comes with and he had 14 interceptions and he was making all these brutal mistakes. He was just like turning things down not like necessarily making a bunch of bad decisions like and just like forcing a bunch of passes that he had no business doing so maybe that's like on the grand scheme of things a slight plus I think that he can be bonix and like that's the second year leap and then all of a sudden we're kind of talking about him a little bit differently. I think he's very clearly going to be an NFL starter and I do think there's like a Jalen Hertz type of ceiling that you can kind of grow into and I'm hoping that as he gets more experience just in just like we saw what Jalen Hertz over his Eagles career then you know three years into this all of a sudden you have like all right the athletes awesome and he's at least can throw the ball down the football field and it's on those seas kind of make things better and you have to play make sure surrounding like it's kind of correct it turns into like an environmental situation like do you have a future yes coach that we really like as a play caller or is it one of these bombs that gets fired after a year do you have Devonte Smith and AJ Brown and Dallas got it and is your offensive line playing one as you're running game doing yes I agree long story short for me if I was redoing the NFL draft he would be my first overall player from from last year and so I think it's an awesome pick for the Giants it should be very happy about where this thing was initially and then I would say don't expect the craziest second year leap because we're going into a brand new offense like you said under center play action which I do think you can do the bonics roll amount throw on the ball down the football field same thing with Russell Wilson like we talked about here he just hasn't done that a whole lot so I wouldn't be surprised if this season feels very similar to last season maybe with a little bit less rushing and then 2027s the year where things are at Malik neighbors is healthy I'm used to this offense and then we can kind of see the the upside case here but a really good athlete man like you could just cannot undersell that part of this there wasn't one moment when he did play with Malik neighbors this play kind of stood out to me versus all the others like again dropping his eyes a three level play where Malik neighbors literally puts up a mailbox he's on the deepest kind of corner route and it goes back to what we're saying that it didn't lead an interception or a way we're throw he turned it down and said in this case ran into a sack and other times you know it turned into a run of eight yards or a scramble laterally to buy more time and then everyone kind of plays back yard football and then you flip it for for a big game on top of that so I have no idea what Matt Nagy is going to bring to this approach much more excited if it was Todd Munkin as his offense coordinator which was you know the hope all around when Harvall was hired as coach and obviously now he's the head coach for Shredor Sanders who we're talking about here in a moment at the very least if he has three quality offensive lineman in front of him and they have really good blocking then that again already gives you a platform for first success that you can even have more fun and your athleticism can shine even more than that too. Alright I agree I'll also take Haymoret but we'll say this will be a telling season okay quarterback three and actually quarterback two in your drafts that is Tyler Schuck of the New Orleans Saints we talked about him on a recent show but we'll dive even deeper right now quarterback 19 the seventh pick of the 10th round at this moment by the way you all can be drafting all these players and many many others over an underdog right now uh use promo code the show play five bucks you get 50 right at this moment uh you've heard to talk about bestball four years or you do as draft there's no waivers there's no trade through the setting lineup so it's the perfect time to do it right now and all summer long so uh go down on the dog app and do some drafting. Talk to about Tyler Schuck and what you saw here after he took over in about week eight. Very confident football player here now that comes with a territory being a 26 year old I get it but I see all the tools to be an NFL average starter and I think that for the Saints like you're looking at a complete bargain here second round around a rookie contract and all the additions that they made this offseason I think you felt that being the weaknesses of this offense the last year I thought there was some reps where if it wasn't going to Chris Alavani who's trying to go to the next tier of players those guys weren't coming open uh and then I'd also thought there was some pressure on the the interior offensive line you bring in a veteran uh Jordan Tyson we liked Oscar Delp a little bit yards after they catch a different type of player than Chawan and I can see how the same kind of comes together I can tell that Kellyn Moore liked what he was seeing from Tyler Schuck uh Tyler Schuck
plays a very conservative brand of football. He's willing to throw the ball over the middle, but if he doesn't like it, he's going to quickly get to his check down and throw the ball underneath. There was a little bit of anciness to him. You can feel him just playing really fast. Sometimes that was a good thing, because he can actually make it through all of his reads. And I think other times you kind of feel some of the anciness come into play. His numbers against pressure were pretty bad. But otherwise, I thought had a pretty quality season. I think that this intermediate five to 15 kind of yard window. I thought Tyler Schucks showed a lot there. And while you didn't get to it a lot, there's some level of athleticism here. He surprised the bucks a couple times zone read, scrambling. I'm completely shocked that I'm sure Todd Bulls is still furious about it. And then he can't throw on the run a little bit here. So there's some warts to his game. I think it's going to prevent him from having a big time ceiling here is the pathway to him being, you know, hopefully Ryan Tannihill right there for the taking. I think that's absolutely a plan. He's easily in the best situation. And it's not just last season he was in the best situation. It's also this year. Yeah, you can clearly tell that Kellin Moore has a vision of what he wants an offense to be. And this goes back to his time with the cowboys and the chargers and the Eagles. We always talk about pace. We always talk about amount of plays. But, you know, he had the answers here for Tyler Schucks. And you could argue he had the answers for Spencer Ratler. As well, I think if you're talking about time to throw, they were two of the four quickest time to throws across the league. So again, that's the vision of who they are. But then how can you upscale that? How can you upgrade that this year? You talked about it. They had some really nice designed open stuff, whether it was like a fake screen that leaked out or an open extra protection or rub routes on these vertical routes. But then it goes to the personnel. Like you bring in David Edwards at left guard. So you don't have instant losses at that spot. To not spook your quarterback. You bring in Travis ETN to be the starting running back when you had to turn to late-round guys last year. Jordan Tyson to be an outside ISO winner. And then Oscar Delp, as you said, to be a real inline presence. But also athleticism, after the catch that you can just flip it to on those time to throw routes. So like while I believe that the Saints' offensive line, because they still had two first rounders plus some other guys. And then Chris Alave gave him a combo to have the most chances to play in timing in the structure of the three guys we've already talked about already. That can even be ramped up even more. And lean into the things he does well this season. That gives him a springboard to have like a really nice even second gear to it, even if you would say like, in a vacuum to use that phrase. Maybe his traits and his playstyle don't necessarily give like a huge second year leap in comparison to Kim Warden-Jackson Dart, if that makes sense. Yeah, I think that his arm talent in general is just rock solid. I think his accuracy is fine. I will note that his catchable ball rate and success rate on 20 plus air yards was among the worst in the NFL. I think he can take some RPMs and layer throws pretty well. And he can even make some throws on the run and then layer them. So I liked that part of his arm talent. I wouldn't say the ball is like completely being rifled in there all the time, but it passes every single level to throw the ball down the football field long term. So I think that the arm talent's fine. Like we said, the athleticism is fine. I just thought by rookie standards, to him throwing the ball over the middle as often as he did and like working all the way to the check the own, I thought was was pretty dang impressive. Now, like should we expect that from a 26 year old sure? But I mean, he was executing it. And I think that there's a built in floor here with Tyler Schuck. And if we are going to be throwing the ball over the middle and surprising players or the defenders out there, that's kind of like why Ryan Tannenhill was doing out there. So that's kind of what I'm hoping for where the Titans can kind of go and run. Does Tannenhill's not overly expensive? They got Derek Henry. They got competent offensive line play. We like the head coach. And then all of a sudden you can have like a pretty fun team. Even if you're not, you're going to end up losing to, you know, the freak isoid quarterbacks that are out there. So I mean, but he would easily go top 10. This level of quarterback in this system can be a top 15 guy, you know, I agree. Oh, yeah. When you are in the right system surrounded by the right people and your offensive line stays healthy and it protects you, then you can go on these runs of consistency of knowing where to go the football and get it out of your hands. That it makes your stats look incredible and it makes your play on the field look in time, in rhythm, and just successful drive to drive. And he's in a potential situation to do that. And that's really the first time I've said that with all three of these quarterbacks. And so that again, that gives him a great platform here. And on top of that, just as soon as he was inserted in the starting lineup, you could tell he had an understanding of his offense and that he and Kellan are on the same page and what his strengths are and what his weaknesses are. Like pre-snap. He knows in terms of what the coverage he's looking at on the drop. He's hitting the checklist in terms of reading exactly which is my zone side, which is my man side. And then once he hits his drop, like the ball is out. And while it looked kind of boring at times and maybe not as many total peaks as we've talked about with board and Dart, you could just hit the next play and hit the next play and hit the next play. And it was just out, out, out. And what I loved was a ton of these outroutes, these hinges, these curls, these comebacks, all types. And the ball was just on time. On the moment, exactly where it needed to be. Now, on the opposite end, I do still have questions about him under pressure because the sample size is pretty small. Again, the offensive line you played with last year, while it had some holes and they tried to patch that this year, he had 124 dropbacks under pressure last year. 39 completions would under pressure. For example, that's the same number as Justin Fields, JJ McCarthy, Michael Pless. Last season. And even his adjusted completion percentage under pressure last year is 28th and then FL. Now, is it to the point like it was at Louisville when you had those highlight reel or low lights where he would just like get rid of the football? No, like he showed a lot more strength in that situation and willingness to take shots in those situations. But then there were still moments like against the Rams, for example, where it was just a simple four-man rush and he just, you could see the discomfort on his face and he popped it to Shaheed and double coverage and it should have been an interception. Or against the dolphins, like it was a train wreck of a first half. They confused him. They got him second guessing. He was throwing into driving defenders. They were down 16-nothing, I believe at one point. And then even to close it out, the interception, the two-point attempt to tie it deep into the fourth quarter. Yeah. While you can tell that he and Kellan Moore have answers and he knows what his answers would be and they have a really good plane heading into these, I do have some concerns of because in these contests and he is surprised, not just for series but entire games, then I'm not sure if he has like just the tools right now or the ability right now is a 27-year-old quarterback soon to be able to then like flip that switch and like put the team on his back. I see the same exact way. Just the internal clock feels very fast and then you can feel a little bit antsy. His pressure to sack ratio on top of those other metrics was second worst in the NFL is only better than Geno Smith last year. So not only was he not completing passes, he was just like straight up taking too many sacks on top of that. This really the thing that we had more concerns with on his Louisville tape. Now we'll say this, he is tough. Like I think in Louisville you can be like, is he tough enough to hang in the NFL? Like there was a plenty of reps where he was taking big shots and delivering it. It was just that he would play kind of quick and then you have some bad decisions there. So I saw him playing more too quick rather than like being fooled and I do wonder if like you said, ultimately the traits are going to be a tier below where it needs to be to like really really take off here. But that said, I just think that he does a lot of the more difficult things as a rookie quarterback. He does that at a pretty nice level. So I think the Saints right now, they would have to take like a top 10 pick to pry them away from Tyler Schuck and they were redrafting. I think he's easily going well into the first half of round one and they got him what, what, first overall or whatever it was. Yeah, he looks like a 27 year quarterback and like by that I mean, he frequently guys on their second contract kind of look the comfort level that he has right now in terms of playing out the scheme of an offense and for him it's the same same number of positives. I mentioned with Kim Ward and I should have said this with Jackson Dart as well, the motion and shifting percentage. Oftentimes that's you know, coaches being scared of putting too much on the plate of a rookie quarterback. So like Dart, he was 30 second last year with 46% of motion shift plays. Kim Ward 28th 54% Tyler Schuck and the Saints team, sixth most 70% of snaps. So that shows again, not just a confidence in this and this scheme of running and I'm going to get my guys prepared, but also Tyler Schuck to you know, get to the line of scrimmaging time and command a huddle enough and get people in the right positions for all of that to unfold. So like if Jordan Tyson hits as a top 15 pick that he is, if Oscar delpt flash that is a lot of the system, if David Edwards is a quality left guard signing and then if Travis H and can step in there and be a reliable runner, then you're already like using last season as almost the floor and then hoping that this becomes even better.
And I think that's why that the saints are becoming such a invogue pick as and pieces Cinderella team of the season. Yep, I see it the same exact way. Do you think there's like a little like Daniel Jones to this all? I think Daniel Jones a little bit better than athlete, but I think but you can build a decent offensive around Daniel Jones and I think that quality coach can kind of get the most out of Daniel Jones. I can see Chuck kind of falling into that category. Okay, I wanted to ask you this question. Since this is a fantasy program, which of these ADPs do you like the most? Do any of them do you like the least? Are you drafting all of them with confidence? I understand stacking and all that type of stuff. Because we just talked about discussing ADPs and the markets would tell you that Round 10 is pretty rich here for Tyler Schuck, just in terms of his projected touchdowns this year and the Saints overall. But again, we know that multiple teams every single year throw the projections in the markets faces out there in overperform. Let's say I think the Saints have either 20 second projected points. That feels too low. Tyler Schuck on Underdog right now. He's projected for just 19 and a half passing touchdowns. I like taking the higher there. The ADP gets me a little bit more nervous just because he's surrounded by guys that can run around a lot. It's like Malik Willis goes in the next round. Kyla Murray would be my favorite in this round. I think that Kyla Murray is going to like easily win that job with the Vikings. Do you get the Kevin O'Connell infrastructure plus Kyla Murray's like a legit threat? Rushing. Where Tyler Schuck, he was a quarterback 23, quarterback 25 in rushing yards this last season. I don't expect that to kind of take over. I think we appreciate what Tyler Schuck is. I think this ADP feels like a round or two heavy. I would definitely have him over Campbell Ward in fantasy, though, like for this upcoming season. And that's how the markets are. I just think going up one round and getting Brock Pertie or Kyla Murray. Trevor Lawrence. I would rather just pay the premium slightly to go up ahead. Jack Miller posted about this today that quarterback 18 ADP by year on Underdog. If you go back to 2020, that was at 150. It was around that 135 to 150 range over the first four years. Five years, excuse me. Then you've got to 2025. That was at 129 overall. Again, this is for quarterback 18. So you're mid-round quarterback. You're again stacking them all together. But now your quarterback 18 is going as 110 overall. Now you compare that to the elite quarterbacks. The early round quarterbacks are kind of going later than ever too. So that makes me not want to attack this quarterback 18-ish range. But instead go up and get one of those elite guys because we're getting a discount versus what we did last year. And we've talked about it mainly because the athletic ones got injured last year. Yes. And that could change instantaneously. I view it the same way. I will say this. The quarterback 15 to quarterback 25 on Underdog has always been too cheap. Every single year, I do fantasy points over replacement. And that's a good way to compare things across positions using Underdog half-ppr scoring. And every single year, the quarterbacks, they rank way higher in that metric than their ADP. And this is the first year where I can look at the ADP and that look at fantasy points over replacement. And everything almost looks identical. The running backs are up, the quarterbacks are up, the wide receivers are down, and there's a legit separation across the tight end landscape. I think that Tyler Schuck should be kind of going in this range. And if he was being priced at quarterback or the round 16 range, that would have just been an old school fantasy where that was just straight up wrong. Now, the other part of this too is once you get to round 10, you don't really want to take the other position, guys. And so that will push up the quarterbacks 18-325. As you're saying. Because it's much easier to click those names versus some of the wide receivers and running backs. Yeah, that's the bad rookie class from this last year. You know, typically there's a bunch of exciting wide receivers in this year or less so. Okay, well close with one more quarterback. This is Shodor Sanders of the Cleveland Browns. I'm expecting to get starts this year, not necessarily because of what he showed during his rookie season, but just because that quarterback room is DeShan Watson and Shodor Sanders at this point. Somehow he continues to just be a lightning rod of a topic. And now it's your turn to add more fuel to that firehaden. I don't think Shodor Sanders could play at an NFL starting level. I think that he has a chance to be a career backup. There's not a statistical argument for him. 37th out of 37 qualifiers in EPA. A per dropback 36 in success rate. I think the athletic traits are pretty underwhelming more backup tier than starting tier. He may be evaded more tackles than I was expecting. But it takes a while for him to get up to the top speed. And that's just what a back-up quarterback looks like versus the freak. So, a quarterbacks to be having the modern NFL. And then I think that his accuracy, I think is good. If, for example, he's in the pro-bul by mistake and then he's throwing the ball at a target. I think he's accurate then. The way he plays now where he's just wandering around the pocket and out of time. Then I think the accuracy is actually not good. It was surprising. He had the lowest catchable ball rate. Once he removes screens, he had the highest interceptable ball rate. Once he removes screens as well. Pretty tough combo. So, I think when we go back to the college profile, he's super accurate. I don't know if I could say he's actually super accurate. It might be one of his better traits. But by NFL starting standards, I would not say that he's accurate. And then I would also just mention there's just way too many negatives. I think everyone kind of understands that at this point. While the coach is actively trying to hide him. So, I think that Sean Watson is going to run away with this job. And I think there's a lot more traits, upside traits, but that's what the Sean Watson should or doesn't have. So maybe by the end of the season, everything goes bust, so we see him again. But I think very clearly a backup if you can kind of hold on to that. If and when he does get on the field, the number one thing that I'm looking for that will set him up for potential future success is he can't bail out the pocket anymore. Like you can't go in reverse. He has to climb. There were some promising moments, not just in college, but in the NFL, when he did put his back foot and drive on it and then climbed the pocket. And then those were his best moments. But again, that offensive line at Colorado, retreat a whole bunch. Then he gets a Cleveland, continues to retreat. And that just compounds the negative place on top of it. So I'm with you. I believe the future with Shredor Sanders is as a backup quarterback out there. And like there aren't 32 backup quarterbacks out there. But let's be real. Like he from talent should be one of the 64 best quarterbacks in the NFL. What adds on to this though is everything that comes with the Shredor Sanders experience, his father, his brother, the, let's say the media opportunity and involvement that Todd Munkin's going to be asked about every single time that Shredor Sanders is a backup quarterback. And to Sean Watson has a bad start out there. The first question to press conference is going to be, well, it should or going to be the starter next week. And that just, you know, is a bit of a drag at times on the entire franchise. But just when focusing on him, I believe he's one of the 64 best quarterbacks in the league. He has some areas that he has success. He has some areas where he wins. But the number one thing that he has to work on to take the next step. And just who he is as a player is, because he's going to hold on the football too long. And it does kind of take his, I think, release and wind up a bit too long. Is he has to have more compact movements and to go forward and not to go in reverse. Yeah, I think it got better than where it was at Colorado this last year. And like you said, his best moments were actually him stepping up into the pocket. He actually can layer some throws in. I think that's where his accuracy comes in when he's like throwing almost a change up to the sideline or somebody kind of sneaking in around. That's where you're going to get the best plays from Shadour Sanders. And there's no question like that is his best trait. His best rep of the season was a free runner. He was responsible. He rolls out to his right and throws the ball down the football field. And I think that there's kind of out of structure moments throwing it with a little bit of pace. I do think like he has like the top 64 talent that you're talking about there. Now like you get a couple of those reps per game. Like the rest of it has to be at a normal level. And he has some work cut out for him there. Do you want to give credit like this off season? Been extremely quiet like so far. So like that's that's really good for for Shadour Sanders. Like his brother's made the most noise compared to him. Yes. And you know what? Like his brothers is his own person. Like Shadour Sanders, you can only grade him by the Shadour Sanders stuff. And he's better than Dylan Gabriel. You know, and Dylan Gabriel was drafted ahead of him. The Dylan Gabriel stuff. Like he's would qualify for the show. We agreed we're not even good to the Dylan Gabriel stuff. I will say Shadour and Dylan Gabriel overlapped on the chart a lot when I was like going through some of the filters. But just in terms of talent, like you're talking about two totally different guys there. He's one of these guys as he gets more reps. I think that his, you know, his plan initially will get a little bit better. His comfort comfort, uh, comfortability throwing the ball over the middle will get a little bit better. He's always wanted to throw the ball over the middle. I think that there's varying degrees of success with that so far. But I think that's how he becomes a stable backup quarterback. And I just think that the brands are probably looking at this like D'Achein Watson's overall talent. It's just way more obvious to us. So well, at least see if his acolysis is on straight and give him all the reps this off season. And I think well into the season. So I'm not expecting a whole lot from Shadour Sanders. But um, he's definitely better. He's definitely better than a fifth rounder. You know, definitely better than a fifth rounder. Okay, that's going to do it. Again, the most fascinating part to me is three quarterbacks that we talked about in the show last year were going in the top 14. And then just one is going in the top 14 of
this year. And they're going to be obvious areas of, hey, can strengths get stronger of these guys? And can some weaknesses get to league average, or even some cases can weaknesses turn the strengths? And if that's the case, then, you know, the first two names that we talked about with Kim Ward and Jackson, art, you will see like exponential. Yeah, success and production compared to what they did their rookie season. And if we get three starting quarterbacks from this last class, where everyone said it's just such a bad class, like that's a win. I think that in general, the gap between Ward, Dart and Shuck has completely narrowed. And I think all three of these guys have a pathway. They just have to make up for for their warts. But three quarterbacks starting by the end of the rookie season versus the expectations that we had. I would say we got one starting quarterback from last year's class that would be a win. I think we're on pace to having two or three of them. That's come to do it. Again, this week, we're going to talk about the second year breakouts at every position. So running backs tied in wide receivers. So lock into the channel. This is really what a massive part of your fantasy draft is all about. So we want to learn about and figure out who these players are, what's now surrounding them, and where they're going to go in their second year. So shout out to Weave's and Moe Show behind the scenes. All of you for watching up the bill. We'll talk to you guys next time. See you.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Year two quarterback breakouts are a major fantasy focus, with examples like Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels showing varied year-one results.
Cam Ward, the first overall pick, has elite arm talent but terrible rookie stats (bottom-seven EPA per dropback) and fumbling issues, with a poor Titans infrastructure raising doubts about a quick turnaround.
Jackson Dart of the New York Giants showed promise as a rusher (second in total EPA on the ground) and has a solid floor, but his passing needs improvement and his arm strength is average.
Both quarterbacks face challenges
The discussion emphasizes that rookie seasons can anchor perceptions, but environmental changes (like new coaches or improved weapons) can drive year-two growth.
Summary:
This episode focuses on year-two quarterback breakouts for fantasy football, highlighting four names, with two first-round picks—Cam Ward and Jackson Dart—as primary examples. The hosts argue that rookie seasons often anchor perceptions, but environmental changes can spur improvement. Cam Ward, the first overall pick, possesses elite arm strength and gunslinger mentality, but his rookie stats were abysmal: bottom-seven in EPA per dropback and a league-leading 11 fumbles.
His Titans infrastructure was awful—bad offensive line, receivers, and a fired coaching staff—leading to self-inflicted mistakes and a lack of trust in protection. , adding Van Jefferson and Calvin Ridley), while the other doubts a quick fix, citing his accuracy issues, slow processing, and a poor environment that may take multiple years to overcome. Jackson Dart, drafted by the Giants, offers a contrasting profile: a strong rusher (second in total EPA on the ground) with decent arm talent and accuracy on the run, but average arm strength.
His rookie season featured a favorable scheme that accentuated his running, but he needs to improve as a passer. With a healthier offensive line and better weapons (Malik Nabers, Darnell Mooney), his floor is secure, but his ceiling depends on passing growth. Overall, the hosts are more optimistic about Dart’s immediate impact, while Ward’s success may require patience.
FAQs
The episode focuses on four quarterbacks: Cam Ward, Jackson Dart, and two others implied by the context of rookie year-two leaps.
Cam Ward ranked 38th in EPA per dropback, 39th in passing success rate, and 40th in catchable ball rate out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks. He also led the NFL with 11 fumbles.
Concerns include poor accuracy, late throws, fumbles, and a bad supporting environment with a weak offensive line and receivers. His athleticism is also considered below top-tier quarterbacks like Caleb Williams.
Jackson Dart ranked 13th in EPA per play and 17th in success rate per play. He was second in total EPA on the ground, only trailing Josh Allen, showcasing his rushing ability.
He is stylistically similar to Russell Wilson but with slightly below-average arm strength. He is aggressive, accurate on the run, and a top-10 athlete among NFL starters.
Improvements may come from a better environment, including new receivers like Van Jefferson and a focus on quicker passing. However, his success may take multiple years due to ongoing issues.
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