Talk With Traders - Tim Grittani & Steven Dux - First Time Ever
37m 8s
In this episode of the "Be the Trader" podcast, host Alex Bustos introduces the show and promotes his associated content and broker partnership. The discussion features traders Tim Grittani and Ducks, who share insights from their recent experiences. Grittani recounts a substantial loss from an unforeseen market move during a vacation, framing it as an unavoidable "black swan" event that was less frustrating than losses from stubbornness or poor discipline. Both guests stress the critical need for patience and discipline, particularly when markets slow down, to avoid forcing trades and taking unnecessary risks. Ducks explains his highly selective strategy, concentrating on high-probability "day one" short plays and relying on meticulous spreadsheet analysis to identify only the best setups. The conversation also touches on adapting to evolving market dynamics, with the traders agreeing that while the number of opportunities and trading volumes change, the fundamental profitable patterns persist. The overarching theme is the importance of rigorous self-analysis, emotional control, and strategic patience for long-term trading success.
(upbeat music) - Everyone to know what it takes to become a successful trader. Alex shares his journey to becoming a trader and interview successful traders along the way to help you. You're listening to Be the Trader. (upbeat music) - Hey everyone, thanks for listening to this show. I just wanna remind you that I'm also on YouTube and you can find me at just the letter B, B, the story, or B, the trader. You should better find me that way. Be sure to subscribe and comment below as I like to interact with each and every one of you. And in another side note, I actually just partnered with Cobra Trader. They're my broker. You guys know this if you've been watching my show. And I love them because of borrows, easy borrows. And you get a really sweet deal in discount. If you use my code, just basically tell 'em, you heard from Be the Trader or Be the Story or Alex Bustos. And it does help me out and I appreciate that, but I wouldn't be suggesting them if I didn't use them myself, which I do. So without further ado, let's get us started. - Welcome back here by the Be the Trader. Today I have a very special segment. If you're watching on YouTube, if you don't know, we're also on YouTube here, check us out, Be the Trader, Be the Story. But if you're watching today, you know, today I have two special guests, Ducks and Tim Grittani. Guys, welcome to the show, guys. - Thanks Alex, good to be back. - It's awesome to have y'all. And you know, I'm excited to, you know, to kind of just talk about how things have been since the last time we've had you on the show for both of y'all. And kind of where we're all headed today in the month of August and what we expect to see in the future. So if you wanna start off by trying to just kind of share us with how things have been since the last time you've been on the show. - Yeah, sure. So I can't even remember what month that was now, honestly, like I've just got like fried, bring it on. - You were like a month and a half ago. - Oh, okay. I mean, I know June was like, by far the best month of my career, which was really cool. It was a big, big milestone month for me. But July, I think I was just fried. And so like I was just like really mentally tired. And it was like an okay first couple of weeks, but towards the end, like it was just like, it felt like every day I was just like missing opportunity after opportunity. And like nothing all that bad was happening to me, but it just was frustrating. 'Cause you know, I talk to guys like ducks who are like just killing it. And I'm, and then I'm like, why am I not? But then like right when I decided to go on vacation, I'm being squeated about this a bit, and I'll tell the story really quick. But the first day of the code act move, I was short, 20,000 shares. I'm covering up 30 minutes before I close, because I'm kind of tired. It's perking, I'm frustrated. It's going to be like a 6K gain or something like that. So I, no, I think at least that I get my position to flat. And then I just like, "Bolt, I'm like, I'm out of here." And I go off the beach. I'm checking my phone. I'm seeing that it's gapping up after hours because of Trump. And I'm like, "Okay, well, I guess even it was into a perk, not that bad of a cover, I guess." Talk to my wife about it that night. Next morning, sleep in, don't open anything. Check the code act again. See it's getting even crazier. I'm like, "Okay, I guess I'll open up my broker even though I was planning on taking a vacation now." And like, I stayed on my desk for 10 or 15 minutes. And then look at my position to stab. And I'm still got 5K code acts from like $9. So, and at this point, it's $30. So, you know, I sat and stared at it through like a volatility halter tube just being like, "What is going on?" And then finally, I added it 40. So, you know, nice start to a little vacation there. But I think it was 157. It was the loss when all was said and done. But, you know, honestly, like, it did not make me nearly as mad or tilted as my stubborn loss is due. It's just ridiculous. Because it's like an honest mistake. Yeah, I just can't believe it happened. Like, you know, like so many things aligned. Like, I'm first of all, I'm taking a vacation, which I almost never do. I leave a position to open, which I almost never do. And then it's a black swan. So, everything aligned perfectly. That's crazy. And you know, before we move on with Doug, somewhere things have been, I'm very curious on July because was July the month where we had a lot of movers just crap out all pre-market. Like a lot of them all crap out, like early pre-market too. Like it wasn't like close to the open. Yeah, and I think Doug's you and I talked about that. Like I was getting super frustrated that I was missing out on all my pre-market, all these early pre-market plays. That's what was happening to me in July. Like I had a good July, but like I was missing so much and I was like so frustrated. I think for the current markets, either hit or miss, either hit the play or you don't play at all. So if you don't see it and you miss it, and see, I never trading pre-market, because things can easily gap through resistance and there's nothing you can do you don't know how far you can spike very quickly as well. That's why I tend to avoid them pretty much all the time. If they just gap down and get rejected, well, pretty much a couple thousand bucks go with going to a waste on the boroughs. But yes, I did miss. I think about eight or nine, I think there's a lot of tickets that just crashed in pre-market. So on the boroughs, I think I took like 25,000 loss in total, but I don't think it's a big deal. That was so. I'm still getting used to that boroughs of like, I'm at a point now where I talk to you the other day too, and I was just about how I'm just borrowing and getting more used to just not use them. Like because like that happened all July and that's kind of the hardest things that I think people don't talk about in short selling. When you borrow and that feeling you get, sometimes you feel like you need to use them in some way. I think it was cool that you said earlier, and we didn't talk about this on the show yet, but how you mentioned sometimes it needs to help with that is sizing real, real small just to make the boroughs back. Is that something that you still kind of do or even though you took 25K in boroughs? I want to see a don't really care. If I hit something that fits in my play, I make about 2,300K, so that's only one play. It can cover 10 plays of boroughs, so I don't really mind. But used to back in the days that I really hate boroughs, he's very, really expensive. I think was about 6 to 7 month ago, 3-0 was unrediculous on the boroughs. So that's why 10 to 6 is a little bit small, but nowadays I just don't really do it. Sometimes I do if the boroughs get 2 dollars a share. You kind of get to a point where you just accept it's a cost of doing business, right? Yeah. I'm getting to that point. It's hard to get to, but I'm getting to that point. Yeah. I feel like Ducks, you and me, we wind up in really similar plays a lot, but the one thing that you are good at that I don't do much of is those day one shorts, and those are a lot of your big wins, right? Yeah, and the one of the biggest runners, I just don't share. We talk most days, I feel like, and I think you know, usually we're doing StarCrafts, I'm distracted, but I know you get some like, sick risk reward on that, but are you also really high win rate on those early day ones? Or is it more like 50/50, but the wins just massively cover the losses? I would say about 65 and wins can massively cover the losses. Yes. I trade the same. I don't know what you trade per se, but I always, that's the majority of my trades, or the day one gap in crafts. That's probably about 90% of my trades. And I love them. I love them a lot. But Ducks warns me on pre-market, which I don't normally trade pre-market, but like, I've been trading pre-market the past like. But usually within the first 20 minutes, right before the open, when it's closed to the open, but not pre-market like an hour before the open, because there's so much to rad it, because by 20 minutes before the open, and it has already rotated its float, there's a lot of volume, I kind of see the pattern. And I give myself wide risk, right? Because like you said, Ducks, it can easily blow, I mean, at the open, it's probably going to blow through high a day more than likely. So I kind of got that in mind, in size with that in mind, and add. It's part of the plan. So. Yeah. I mean, you guys like really focused on what those big chat rooms with all the followers are doing on those plays. I don't. I just kind of ignore it. I actually heard it from one of our people in chat. He was pumping something. I was shorting at it at the same time. So I just kind of sat there and white while he's pushing it. So yeah. I don't play just any of that. I don't log on to any chat room at all or anything at all Twitter or anything. I just because if I do, I'm easily influenced. So like if you were talking to me, Gritani or Ducks, a Ducks says, "Duck says, do I wouldn't do that? I would eat me." Okay, cool. Let me get up. And so I don't talk to nobody. I just stay alone with pretty much. I was curious. So Gritani, when you mentioned the beginning, did you intentionally hold those shares? I thought you said. No, I thought I was. Oh, okay. Yeah. Okay, got you. Holy crap. That happens to me like once in a while, but usually I catch it within like five or 10 minutes. So I'm very curious on just some things that got me thinking this month. It's been slowing down a lot lately. The month's just slowing down. I feel like it's been slowing. And that's when things, I don't know about you guys, but my history for, you know, I'm recently compared to y'all consistent. And so a lot of things that happen to me back in the day that when things slow down.
I tend to take a little bit more like risky plays 'cause there's not as much. So I'll like take more losses if you will or unnecessary losses. And then when the time heats back up, you kind of might be gun shy. You know what I'm saying? You've ever been in that cycle when you first started where it's like, it slows down. So you kind of get like Lucy Goosey and then lose a little bit and then when the market picks back up, you're kind of gun shy because if you kind of took some losses, anything you'll ever experience something like that. - I'm definitely, you go ahead, ducks. How you going? How you going? I've gone through that for sure. And I've also done it at times with size where because things are slow, I'm really forcing stuff 'cause I still want to like have a good month, you know. I think that in the last year, it's probably shifted to more of the opposite where I've gotten so good at sitting on my hands that when things do start to heat up again, I'm almost rusty. So like, I mean, gosh, I feel like the last time it was slow was like maybe last October. Like it's been like that long that the market just seemed crazy to me. So I remember though, like November, December, when we had like the first big squeeze or like, I think I lost like, 5/6 K on the front side of it, just like, you know, taking hit after hit after hit 'cause, you know, I just was, I maybe a little over aggressive 'cause I was excited there was something to play again, but just also a little bit like, wait a minute, something's running. Like what, this is different. And then I adjusted and things got easier again, but it, yeah, it's just always something. - Where do you duck? Were you gonna say something earlier? - Oh, yeah. So I used to do the same thing pretty much two years ago. And my perspective on that is there's a cycle in the market that every time it slows down, somebody's going to make the first mistakes. If they start to make the first mistakes, they basically put in the money in the market. That's where you can take advantage of it. So I got, so used to that, I'm just patient because I can see the market slowing down and I can see they're about to make the mistakes. I can, I know what ticket is it too. So every time I see that, I'm not actually excited but like, I'm looking forward for the opportunity that they create. So that is getting that. - Yeah. That makes me happy. - So you're talking about like how like, we'll have like all these like one day stocks that just die if they want. And we'll go to the store and store it and develop bad habits. - Yep, that totally. - Yeah, I agree with that completely. Like today, what was it? It was, well, I didn't end up dying today, but it was, it was so sick. - Ambility. - What was it? - Ambility. - Yeah, I think that was the one, or is it, yeah, I think that was the one. - L-O-D-E. - Yeah, load, that was the one. - Yeah, that was the one where it just like, you look like it might have died, but then it came all the way back. And we're starting to get some more, like I see what you're saying, like the psychology of the market where people are getting used to this one way that now it could, once it starts shifting, we're gonna start to get the opposite, like those big squeezes. And we're gonna get those other patterns that we all like, right? The over, that's big over extension, those codex. - No, those are pretty much what we're doing. - Yeah, right. That's pretty much what we're gonna start getting. So, you know, I'm talking about that. You, what's the, I mean, I probably brought this up to Buffy all before, independently, but I'm curious just throwing it out there. I interviewed this guy just the other day named John Locke. He's from SMB Capital, and he's some options trader, or he still is an options trader. So, the whole idea of like the market changing, right? Like change. Do you feel like there's some truth all the way in that? And some not so true, like as in like, are you, I feel like the pattern is pretty much have stayed the same, but there has been little changes within the pattern. So, I'm just curious just throwing it out there. Like, what are your opinions on like, are you still pretty much trading the same way? Or is it like things have completely changed for you where you're like, man, I don't even trade any of this stuff. I used to trade. - I feel like I'm trading a lot of the same stuff. It's, it's more just when we talk about the market, having that change is, for me, it's mostly a change in number of opportunities, where I'll go from having, like more trades than I can handle in a day, so like, okay, maybe there's like two or three really good opportunities this week and that's it. Like, and that's like we touched on earlier, that's when it turns into the battle of like, okay, sit on my hands, don't force stuff. - That makes sense. What about you, ducks? - It's more about volume in different market conditions that there's different average volume. Average volume, we've been getting in the morning is around 15 to 20 about year ago. Now we're getting around anywhere between 50 to 70 before we get into afternoon. So if you can adapt into that volume and sizing correctly, I don't think anything changed. The only thing is changing is, I think the average volume, that's pretty much it. - Cool, cool, it's good even that. It's good to hear that from both of you, because I've been, I personally kind of feel the same way you guys both feel like things don't really, just like the number of opportunities and like the volume in terms of like, the volume change dramatically lately. It's just ridiculous, but like, you kind of get used to it, right? Like kind of like, okay, this is a new norm for now. And you know, talking about sitting on your hands, ducks are really good at that. You're really good just sitting on your hands and just waiting. I know, good time you say you're getting even better at it. I've gotten really good at this as well, where, you know, I'm just trying to ask this question next and really get reinforced and why I should be doing this. And that is, I have this idea of, if I just only wait for the best patterns, then I can basically, I trade for three to one minimum. That's just how I trade. And so, if I wait for the best patterns, then overall long-term, if I only trade three times in one week, because there's only three plays this week for some odd reason, and I win on one, while I'm profitable for the week, and I keep that up, I'm gonna be profitable for the year and so forth. Have you, did you always, or were you all both, I don't know about Gritana, I don't know if you've always been that way, but do you feel like, what's really helped you kind of solidify, hey, patience, wait for the best setups? And if you're not, if you wanna be that way, and you're not really that way, but you're working towards it, what's the challenge for you to be that way? - I think it was something I actually learned really early in my career. Like back when I was still like a $1,500 positions, because I lost my first 1,500, because I wanted to trade everything. I had as many brokers open as possible, so I could have as many day trades per week as possible. It was like, try to trade eight, ten different patterns, and I just blood myself out. And as I went full-time, I started 2012, and had to like, kind of really embrace the grind, and had the realization along the way back then, it was all about buying the major promoters, and getting them in upon announcement, and 50% spikes in five minutes and stuff like that. And I kind of came to realize with those, I was like, you know what, this is the bulk of my gains, like each month. I just need two promos to be released every month, and if I just wait for those, that can make my month. So just be ready for those opportunities, and everything else, like yeah, if there's something great, trade it, but those are the ones that matter. So that kind of took a lot of pressure off in my mind, where I was just like, trust that those couple big trades a month will be there, and just be ready to strike when they appear. - And that's the same thing pretty much, or? - Pretty much the same thing. I think back in the days, I always go back and look at my account statements, and go through the trade that, is there really worth it to place those trades that can really affect my gains? The answer is no. So I just really be super selective and trying to pick up the right trade. Pretty much when you look at your account statements, you will know what you should do, I mean, what you shouldn't do. - When it comes to me, - When we first started talking, ducks, like it really surprised me, like how little you actually traded. - Yeah, I don't trade that much. - Yeah. Has it always been that way? I mean, what do you explain? What do you go ahead and explain on that? It's not always been that way. I used to trade like the first green day, second green day. Now all those are 50/50. Either I get massive gains, or I get pretty much a similar loss. So if you trade about a hundred times, and the net gains zero. And I wish all these times trying to trade the same pattern, but at the end of the day, I get zero gains. That's why I turn into super selective person. After that, I would rather put all of them by concentrations and just study the super detail of the pattern and get the size really big and get the massive gains. And that's pretty much what I'm saying. Were you just looking at a counterstatement to figure that out, or did you also track this on spreadsheets? - Oh yeah, pretty much all spreadsheets and accounts in this as well, yeah. - Spreadsheets, spreadsheet, spreadsheets. You literally make me want to get better at that. (laughs) - I think he's probably even more into the data than I am. - Oh, I bet you're right. (laughs) Oh yes, yes to be. Yeah, I'm curious on whenever you select your patterns, like this can go for both. I'm just very curious, like when you're only trading, like one thing that's challenging for me is I only trade like, I say like three patterns probably, but it's really just like two big things.
picture moves, but like there's so many ways to trade it, right? But like what I'm asking is over time, you'll start to pick up a new kind of trend. How we talked about earlier, how you were like, hey, everything's just crapping out the open. Well, sometimes you'll start to see a new little, you know, maybe midday perks. I all start to happen mid day and they all just like squeeze all the shorts. When you start to notice those things, do you guys quickly adapt and say, you know what, here are my patterns that I trade, but I'm noticing this right here that's happening this month. I jump on that. Like, do you think that way or where are you guys at on those? I jump on it in the sense that I'll start tracking. Like, I'll kind of, I'll notice something new and I'll say, well, let's get this into a spreadsheet. And if I can back test it, I'll back test it and try to get old data to, but I want to see something in a spreadsheet that makes me feel confident that it's not all in my head. And there's actual data to support it. And once I start to see that, then I usually probably dive in a little too fast with size, but like rather than you dipping a toe in the water first, but step one for me is usually try to throw it into a spreadsheet and see if I can make something out of it. And you dex. I have pretty much a lot of experience with those type of trend and I try to adapt into the back into this. Nowadays, completely zero attempt from me because when I look at something that's doing something weird and I'll ask myself, okay, well, do I already know this? Am I familiar with this? If I don't know it, I just, okay, well, I'll take my loss and then I'll come back find, you know, that best pattern. That's pretty much my style since this year. So do you just totally stay in your lane or do you still try to learn new setups at all or you just like, I've got my playbook and I'm good. I'm still tracking new stuff, but everything pretty much laying the same thing. Nothing has changed pretty much in terms of how much you will draw, how much you will spike, it just volume change. You're just sizing into specific bound keys to get your size like 200,000 shares, but other than that, everything pretty much stayed the same. Kind of volume become important for you guys when it comes to size. Like, at what point were you like, oh, I got to pay attention because you know, when you're trading, when you're becoming consistent and you were, you know, I had your 50 on draw account, like you really damn to worry about like, oh, is my size going to be, you know, can I get in and get out easily? Like, at what point were you like, shit, I got kind of a just adapt because there might be people who listen to this who are getting there and they're not sure like how to do that and they're starting to struggle, right? So can you explain that because I'm curious really? I think for me it was because I traded almost all OTCs for the first couple of years of my career. And I was, from the start I was thinking ahead, like, you know, because there's so many OTCs, they're so ill-equated. And I mean, you can usually just even see it if you just look at a one minute chart, there's all these weird gaps in the chart or like, you know, one print per minute stuff like that. Like lots of white lines that do nothing. I guess for me it was thinking ahead, like, you know, okay, great, I could have something that works now, like, with my tiny account. But then what happens when my account starts to grow if I can't take that next step up in size, like, and then I'm just stuck, you know, making very little every month. And there's no opportunity for growth. So I guess I got the idea of volume being important in my head, like from the start. And I don't think I pay as much attention to it with the list it stocks as ducks does. You know, like, of course, I still have like my minimum, like, I want it to be liquid enough to trade and feel like I can take size. But, you know, like, even hearing you talk about some of the volume stats ducks, like, you know, the average volume per month, like a year ago compared to today, that is, like, I haven't looked at anything like that. And I have questions where I'm like, oh, man, interesting, like, pick duck ducks as brain right now. Okay. So I look at it in two ways. First of all, is there enough equity for me to size in 200,000, 300,000 shares to make 300K? And I have digged very deep on that that there is only limit amount of money you can make with how much you can size an end, depending on how much volume is there. So back in the days, I think I found out the volume anywhere before it starts to fade. average volume can be trading on the day is around 40 to 15 million. And when they hit that 30% volume, you will start to decrease. Now, whenever, the priority is the pattern has to be there. So the volume will be anywhere between 15 to 20 million. And when I see that volume hitting close to that 15 to 20 million, that's where I jump into the key that has some type of spike. So I will neutralize that candle and dump it down. Now days, we have close to 100 to 120 million with the potential of spec into 400 million, but you can see it coming. So that really in that, you will know with this type of gap and crap that crap in the pre-market and they want to come back and spike into the pre-market resistance. First of all, you have in your head that, okay, well, the entire day potential is 100 million to 120 million. And it's already hitting the pre-market resistance. It's only traded about 10 million. So for me, I will not short that because I know the potential that has to hit 30% to match the perfect material for me to shorten into that pre-market resistance, which is the 30% of the entire day. It has to trade anywhere between 30 to 40 million, hitting that 30% then you have to trap enough. That's the enough level to trap in a backholder for it to dump. So if it hits 10 million, well, now you're not backholders in there. So if I sat in there, that's one of the mistakes I see. A lot of the short-sellers that sat in the pre-market and instantly get squeezed. And you can see one of those outliers. You can find these type of examples that can strike bust through the resistance because they didn't reach that specific level. It's been working out super well, I think. You have to use all of the methods that lines up to be able to size in there. I think me and Tanya are both really impressed right now. It's just interesting to hear. Yeah, it's really cool how you think. Well, and like, you know, like, you know, to work both, we both like to track different things. And I get asked a lot about like, how do I track data? Like, what should I track? What things? Like, you're in mind with that when somewhere that by my never would have, which like, you know, that's why I always tell people like, there's no right or wrong way. And like, don't follow my formula because people are trying to like, make exactly how I track. They would never think of that. Like, it's, it's just really interesting. Like, that all the different ways you can go with data and ways you can use it. How do you think of volume? It's funny because it's like, I see what you're saying 100% and it's really cool to hear you say this because I've never heard of this specific. So like, I knew you thought about volume a lot. I knew you always talked about that and your DVD. I mean, I've seen that. So like, but I never thought of it in the way you just explained it. And so it's very cool to see like, what got you to start tracking that way? You know, or did you just always, you know, I'm saying, what got you thinking that way? Just very curious. I don't know my mind. It's like a very, I don't know, I'm everywhere because like, because when I think of stuff, I don't come next stuff. I think, okay, well, this one and something else, like completely different. So one of those days, I was like, oh, this is might be very interesting to track. And one of the other things I found out is the volume traction in the morning, the more volume tracks, the more liquidity will lose, especially in afternoon. And it has to fit specific pattern. If the volume potential majority lands in the morning, the stock will drop about, you know, 75%, 80% from the top. If it didn't trap enough volume in the majority of the morning, doesn't reach the volume potentially will drop about 50%. Then we will have that weird consolidation that might be perk again and testing the morning high. So I think at one point, I got so tired of these type of like gap and crap and consolidate and really spike again, I will start focusing on the volume. And finally, I found a solution for that. So that's one of the method I use. So when you started doing that, give me an idea how, because before you saw that, you were trading probably almost every day, right? And then now you're probably like, let us know, like did it dramatically decrease the amount of trades that you take now because of that tracking? Not really, because there's so many opportunities. So if we have, so if we are in the same market last year, then pretty much a lot less, but this market pretty much the same. What point in your career did you have that, a homelman with that though? Like was that really earlier? Was that like in the last couple of years? Probably the last two years because I was really trying to figure out, okay, well, I got big enough account and I can make much bigger gains, I just don't know how. And I need to dig in into some stats to find out, okay, this is how much you can say it's an in without break the pattern. Yeah.
That's one of the last two years. - So like maybe you would be trading less if it wasn't for like this on crack market we've had the past year. - 'Cause I mean before you said, I mean not in this chat, but like in a previous chat, I think you were saying you were trading like maybe one to three times a week if it was like a norm back in a day. Like it last year. - Yeah. - Which is crazy. (laughs) 'Cause I talk to buddies of mine who think I'm crazy 'cause I trade like maybe five times a week, like one trade a day at max. But like you're trading like way less. And it's like, or I mean right now it's active, I get it. But like a normal, it's aggressive, it's crazy. So I think I know we're almost running out of time here. We're getting out a little time or countdown right now. So we've got about five more minutes for we're gonna wrap this up guys. I'm curious on just one other thing. I think it's, we kind of talked about it just now, but the answer, I think I asked the question the wrong way. And what I was trying to find out is, in terms of the, when I was saying earlier, Cretani about like your sizing, whenever you start to get to a certain size, do you feel like, and this could be mean in experience? Is there a certain size where you do have to, not in terms of worried about does this trade have, you know, volume or not? 'Cause most of the trades that we trade have volume, at least four, five million plus. But what I'm curious about is like, is there certain parts where, you know, you're used to entering and getting your size in every time, like real easily, no problem, because you're maybe trading a thousand to five thousand shares. But when you start to trade bigger lots, was there a certain number of lots or a size that you kind of were like, okay, I have to be more strategic on how I size in or, or like for ducks, for instance, if he size in's the way he does, he's gonna completely gray out a candle and make it go down. You know, so like, very curious, I mean ducks, you guys are trading way bigger now, but I'm saying, was there a point in your career where you're like, okay, now I gotta pay to it should it this? Is there like a number size wise? Like thousands of shares and hundreds of, you know what I'm saying? Like this is what I'm asking. - It's not a specific number for me, you know? It all relates back to the current stock that I'm trying to trade, whether it's listed or not. What, you know, basically like kind of like, what the average one minute volume is, I think is probably the way I think about it the most, because what my mind always goes to when I'm thinking about my trading size is what if things start to go horribly wrong? And I wanna get out like fast, like will I be able to? So I'm, and I don't have like a specific formula or like percentage of the days volume or anything like that where it's a okay, this is where I'm gonna max out my position. I've kind of, maybe I should do it automatically in my head, I don't know, but like it's just kind of been a by feel looking at the chart, looking at the one minute volume and just trying to be smart, I guess, 'cause I don't wanna be in a spot where all of a sudden I can't get out when you need to. That's what I'm talking about, you hit it on the head, now I can clarify my question. You know how you like, we'll have stop areas where we're gonna get out our risk, but like, you know, when I'm trading, you know, 2,000, 3,000 shares, it's easy to get out close to your risk if it buss through, but if you're trading 100,000 shares, ducks, 200,000, 300,000 shares, how do you get out without all that slippage? Like, that I'm very curious about. - I have this down into very, very, very, so many sections. So, I know how much, and how many shares, and how much dollar I suppose to say is in different flow zone, cap zone, like the flow between one to two million, two to three million, three to five million, five to 10 million, and different cap are, have correlated with that. So, I have different sections, let's say, the market cap is under 100 million, and the flow is under two million, that's one section. 100 million cap under flow is three to five million, that's another section. So, I've duked in a lot of those statistics, and I have this sheet that I got in my head that how much dollar I can, I can sass it in into this pattern, if the volume reaches into this certain limit, there's a lot of stuff to go over, but once I figured out that one, then I started tracking different market cap zones, dollar limit, that was back in two years ago when I started, then I figured out, okay, well, there is a maximum dollar can be traded in one day before it starts to lose its liquidity. Now, that's also really into different zones, like the market cap under 100 million, market cap between 500 to 1 billion, 1 billion to 10 billion, and I think it's very interesting to track, maybe Tim should do it as well, that when you see the pre-market volume, you can estimate entire day volume, right? When you, so if you have a volume in your head, and you have the maximum dollar block can be traded in this day, right? You use the maximum dollar block that divide the potential volume can be traded in the entire day. You can figure out what price, what price the stock will start to drop. So before the market even started, I already know the market, what price, what time, and what volume it's going to drop. - Okay, one question, one question for you. Give me one piece of the secret equation here. - One time pre-market, are you casting your volume forecast? - All right, so right now it's pre-market volume times four, that's the general equation. - All the pre-market, so you do it at 930? - Yes, 930 times four. That's when the stock goes straight flat, not move at all. That's called consolidations. Now if you start to drop, it will start to lose the quality. Now it will divide by two. It will start to spike, not sure. And, but if it's a multi-day runner, the, okay, the current small cap that for billion dollar cap is anywhere between two to three billion. So, small cap to the three billion, and if the pre-market volume is, it's a 10 million, right? 10 million times four, that's 40 million volume estimated. You use two billion to three billion, divide by 40 million. So the stock has to trade $50 on the consolidation level before it drops. So, once the stock trade up about $50 and consolidate it for a while, that's where you set it in. So, I use that on code decay. - So, so people are gonna hate me right now, 'cause I have to wrap this up, 'cause we're about to kick it kicked off. And so, look, I know the good times, I'm gonna continue this. - I'm gonna have to watch this, yeah, I know me too. But thank you so much, Doug, Grittani, for being here today, guys. I appreciate both of you a lot. I respect you both a ton. And it's just a pleasure always having you all on the show. Thanks. - Great time again. - Thank you. - Thank you.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The host Alex Bustos promotes his trading podcast and YouTube channel, along with a partnership with broker Cobra Trader.
Guest Tim Grittani discusses a significant trading loss due to an unexpected "black swan" event while on vacation, highlighting the emotional and psychological challenges of trading.
Both Grittani and guest Ducks emphasize the importance of patience, selectivity, and avoiding forced trades, especially during slow market periods.
Ducks shares his strategy of focusing on high-volume, high-conviction "day one" short setups and using detailed spreadsheets to analyze performance and refine his approach.
The traders discuss adapting to changing market conditions, noting that core patterns remain but the frequency of opportunities and average trading volumes fluctuate.
Summary:
In this episode of the "Be the Trader" podcast, host Alex Bustos introduces the show and promotes his associated content and broker partnership. The discussion features traders Tim Grittani and Ducks, who share insights from their recent experiences. Grittani recounts a substantial loss from an unforeseen market move during a vacation, framing it as an unavoidable "black swan" event that was less frustrating than losses from stubbornness or poor discipline.
Both guests stress the critical need for patience and discipline, particularly when markets slow down, to avoid forcing trades and taking unnecessary risks. Ducks explains his highly selective strategy, concentrating on high-probability "day one" short plays and relying on meticulous spreadsheet analysis to identify only the best setups. The conversation also touches on adapting to evolving market dynamics, with the traders agreeing that while the number of opportunities and trading volumes change, the fundamental profitable patterns persist.
The overarching theme is the importance of rigorous self-analysis, emotional control, and strategic patience for long-term trading success.
FAQs
You can find Alex on YouTube under 'B the Trader' or 'B the Story', and subscribe to his channel for updates and interaction.
Cobra Trader provides easy borrows and discounts for traders, especially when using Alex's referral code from 'Be the Trader' or 'Be the Story'.
Traders may take unnecessary risks or become 'gun shy' when markets slow down, leading to losses or missed opportunities when activity picks up again.
Many avoid pre-market due to volatility and gaps, but if trading, they use small sizes and wide risk management to account for unpredictable moves.
Waiting for the best patterns and setups, even if it means fewer trades, can lead to higher profitability by focusing on high-reward opportunities.
They view borrows as a cost of business, often offsetting them with gains from successful trades, and may adjust sizing to minimize impact.
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