Talent or Opportunity + The Sorsby Situation - Dynasty Fantasy Football

[music] Welcome to the Fantasy Footmollers Dynasty Podcast with Borg Betts in a Baller. [music] Welcome in. It's Wednesday, June 17th. I'm your host, Cobb Arioni, and I'm joined by Jason Moore and half an Iron Man, Matthew Betts. You got to throw the half in there, huh? Did you do that to. Come on, dude. Did you have to say that? I was just giving Betts grief. He did his Iron Man. I congratulate him because it is an unbelievable piece. I do, and I'm proud of you. And then he corrected me. He's like, "Just so you know, it was a half Iron Man." And so then I spent the rest of my time just giving him grief for being what a wimpy weeny of a boy to do half. You can't even do the whole thing. But just remind me, what is a half Iron Man? Like what did you do? It's just completing it. What is that? What did you do? I swam 1.2 miles. You got out of the water. In open water, by the way. Open water, yes. No wetsuit, which was a big bummer. 1.2 miles swim. 56 miles on the bike. This course had 3,100 feet of elevation gain, which sucked. And then a half marathon, 13.1 mile run off of the bike. Well, that is. In the end, I was full blown. Alborland. Albi, Albi, Albi, Albi, Albi, Albi. That sounds just like Al. No, but congratulations. It's quite the feet. It all started since, though. The next morning, walking, like going downstairs, achy knees, man. This is what it feels like to be you guys. This is terrible. This is terrible. Yeah. Just wait. You won't have to even do anything but sleep to feel that bad. You've prepared for a while. So the half is not meant to be. It's just accurate. This is what it is. We don't want false advertising out there. Yeah. You can. But if somebody says, "Hey, are you an Iron Man?" I will say, "Yes, with an asterisk." No, you just say yes. I'm only half. I'm only half. I'm only half. Yeah. I'm not. Endurance stuff really hasn't been my thing. I feel like I could work at something. But I'm really trying to figure out like what's like. What's like a goal that I can set? Maybe it's something, but Betts, maybe you can help mine that out for me for the next little bit. Like I've done some stuff on the bike before where I was like, "Okay, for these 100 days I'm biking." But I need something. Jason was golf. We know that. It was good to have something like work towards as far as like this is what I'm doing today and this is why I'm doing it. But I don't know. I might be a one and done. We'll see. I know that the most important aspect of being done with this is that it is not golf season for me. Like hearing you guys talk golf daily just kills me. I didn't touch the clubs all season until I went Monday night. You abstained. I did. I went Monday night and then Tuesday morning went. So I can't wait for my little back to be a little achy in discomfort and that's when I know summer is officially here. On this episode we are going to get into some listener questions. We're going to have a. I would say a healthy discussion debate conversation about Brendan Swarsby, which I think is at the center of Dynasty world, which in mid June, we usually don't have like hot button topics to talk about. No, but it's pretty important because I think every dynasty league has to have an answer for what do you do with him? So we'll lay out different possibilities and what we would do ourselves and then talk a little bit about the prospect himself to give you some idea of maybe what you should do, not just as a league, but as a manager. Yeah. And behind the scenes, we're working to like add him in to like what we do and figure out where he lands. It's like it's rare that we get a prospect that just all of a sudden gets injected into our player pool. I'm like, okay, well, what do we do with this player? We have some idea of him. And I guess for those listening that are like, what are you talking about? There's a quarterback who was denied eligibility went through a bunch of legal stuff from Cincinnati for betting on games. And whether the whole is eligible or not was a problem and he has decided to declare for the NFL draft. So he will be going in the supplemental NFL draft. So for every dynasty league where your your rookie draft is over, you go, okay, what do we do with this guy? Those are some of the questions will be answering. Yeah. And we also got a bunch of trade questions. I feel like right now people are in the dead of summer. So maybe they're getting a little. They're itching to make something happen for their team. So we'll get through some trade questions that people submitted on the website and in our discord. If you want all of the projections, all the rankings, the startup rankings, you can find them at ultimate draft kit. Dot com. Everything's updated live. We have that in there. But I do have a good little quick question for us that I think will bring up some interesting players. Talent or opportunity. I think in dynasty, we sometimes find players that are at the crossroads of what is their talent? Like how good is this player? And then also what opportunity they have in front of them. So I kind of wanted us to ask the question, who is a player that comes to mind that maybe is ultra talented or maybe people people think they are. And they have an opportunity in front of them. So bets. I'll let you go first because I think this is the name that we've talked about a little bit a couple seasons ago. He was like the hot name and dynasty of like watch out. And now I'm still trying to figure him out. Yeah, the guy you're talking about is Isaiah likely who we've been waiting for him to be the guy without Mark Andrews for the last couple of years. We thought maybe in Baltimore, they would favor likely over Andrews and let Andrews walk. They ended up signing Mark Andrews to an extension and Isaiah likely leaves in free agency. Obviously goes to the giants with Harball signs a three year 40 million dollar deal that made him the fifth highest paid it tight end in the league based on average salary. And so when you hear that, you think yourself, okay, like they obviously have a plan for this guy. He's got familiarity with the head coach. Like he clearly will have a big role in the system. But I kind of just keep getting stuck in this kind of uncertain situation of like, okay, this is a player we all think is talented when Mark Andrews previously has missed time. He's been very fantasy relevant. You click him off the waiver wire and read your athletes. You plug him in your starting lineup. But rarely do we see players actually break out in your five or six, which he's entering his fifth year in the league. Marvin Ellicom, one of our writers put this in the dynasty life cycles article, which I recommend checking out. They're super informative. Most of these breakouts happen the first couple of seasons. And so you can talk yourself into it with Isaiah likely because we've seen flashes. But this is a guy who's always been a part time player. Never really had a true fantasy relevant role outside of injuries in front of him. And I was going through our projections that the guys have in the else draft kit. And based off, I think the excitement and the hype on like the landing spot and the contract. That doesn't match what we're projecting as far as the statistical output. Because when I looked at it, I was like, oh, he kind of projects is like every other tight end. That's not the elite guys. And I was maybe thinking, oh, maybe there's some opportunity here for him to really capitalize. So I think there's a wide range of outcomes on as a likely. I feel like right now there's a little bit of a boost in his perceived opportunity just because of the Malik neighbors ACL recovery. But obviously that's a short term factor in his outlook for dynasty. So where you guys out with Isaiah likely I find myself kind of one foot in one foot out because I don't want to pass up on a guy that I think is talented. At the same time, this is going to be a team that probably spreads the ball around and Malik neighbors comes back. That is the guy. It stinks that I look at his signings and then I have to add in the name Matt naggy. Like that's that's that stinks that like I look at him and I look at the situation. And I really ask myself like would they feature a player like this or does he separate so much from Theo Johnson that he. You know sees 90 targets in a season. It's like I just can't see that happen despite the the contracts. What do you think Jason. Yeah, I think I've got personal scars from Isaiah likely I'm looking at my trade log history back in 2023. I traded a 2024 second round or for Isaiah likely as the mark Andrews manager in our main dynasty league. I was like I'm going to prepare for the future. Andrews doesn't have that much time left the air apparent Isaiah likely is going to be awesome. And we we obviously saw flashes we saw games where it was like. Oh, OK, this guy's you know nine catches 100 plus yards touchdown just monstrous games. But he never ever established himself as a consistent target earner as someone who was really impactful and obviously he gets the big contract. So he's this is a correct answer for this question talent versus opportunity with my person I'm going to bring up. I think he has the talent and I'm worried about the opportunity with Kyle's he's got the opportunity. But does he have the talent with yours. I have no idea of either because honestly Theo Johnson. I think might be a better tight end is you know close friend to Jackson Darryl and despite the harboh talking about how much he's going to get likely involved. I heard that for years in Baltimore same coach same player. So to me, I think he is. find, you know, he should be rostered in dynasty. You should be hoped that he's, you know, gonna step forward. I don't think it's gonna happen. I don't believe he's going, he'll, he'll have maybe streetable weeks, even injury to Theo Johnson happens or if he gets off, I will say this. If he gets off to a hot start, like, you know, the first two weeks, he is out there and he's their number one target. I will probably turn around and dump him because the hype on him has been very high. People are excited and they might think with this contract, he is now their one. But like you said, I mean, I'm assuming Malik neighbor starts on the pup. There's debate there. But if he does, that's just the opportunity for targets and I'm, I'm just unlikely to love him. Oh, which stinks because he felt like not just like the backup to Andrews. So like, for I remember for your team, you're like, I have both these guys. If Andrews goes down or if he gets old and they move on, I've got this other piece. And then he's gonna get the extension. It almost feels like you held on for, I mean, he gets a new team and I like Jackson Dart. And so I actually think that the giants are going to be good offense in a couple of years. So maybe I'll get lucky, but I'm very pessimistic. The name that you have down Jason is Traveon Henderson. And I have him in a dynasty league. And it is, it is tantalizing. It is beautiful. And yet when I have him in my RB two slot, it feels shaky week to week. Like I feel like I love looking at my roster. It's a sexy roster. And yet I also have weeks from like, I don't know what the workload is going to be. So I think the question that we're trying to bring up is we all love the talent. We know what he can do. The breakaway runs. And yet, I Ramondra is still under contract for three more years. So Jason, like, where are you at with him? And 2026 because like, I look at a startup rankings, we have an RB 13. I think that's right based on his age, but he doesn't feel like RB 13. He does not feel like RB 13. He feels like someone that you're really happy to have as you're running back three on your team right now. And it really is because of the opportunity with Ramondra Stevenson. If Ramondra Stevenson wasn't a part of this team, it would be like, oh my, I mean, where would where would Traveon Henderson be? Let's say Ramondra Stevenson gets a career ending injury and training camp is Traveon fifth. Like, I mean, how high would he be? You I think you would move probably close to like the H and Hampton, Martin Hampton ish range. Right. So for me personally, I would take I would probably take him over H and if he was in that role, but he's not. And the question is, can he earn that role while Stevenson is on her contract? Like you said, three more years of big boy money for Ramondra Stevenson. However, there is a potential out after this season for 3.2 million deadcap. So I will say that if if Henderson takes that step forward this year and becomes the clear leader of the timeshare, that's a lot of money to pay Ramondra and then might just end up moving to make him the star. Personally, I think he's too good to be relegated to the backup. And we saw it last year, we saw here's the reminder of the the rookie season for Traveo. Awful, awful, awful beginning to the, I mean, just wasn't involved, wasn't on the field that much. Just, you know, he wasn't the guy started to get more involved. You saw some juice, but he had problems, problems in past protection, which was surprising and and other issues. You know, coaches talking about wrong place or whatever. Then the injury to Ramondra happens and he becomes a bell cow and he dumb a nates. He was, he was like the engine that was making the Patriots off and it was like, okay, it's over. It's done. He is now their star running, but he's their Jameer Gibbs. The next fantasy superstar, Ramondra comes back from injury and most of the rest of the year, it still was Henderson really leading the way, but as it got further and further from that injury and closer and closer to the playoffs and the Super Bowl that they went to, it just became Ramondra's team again. Ramondra was trusted far more by variable. He was given the rock, he was given the time. And so there is a lot of questions and dynasty manager's minds of like they got to the Super Bowl. Why wouldn't they continue doing that? But in my opinion, I think that was, that was because you had a rookie. You had an inexperienced guy and you're trying to make a run to the Super Bowl and he didn't always know the right place to be. He wasn't as experienced in those big games, those big pressure moments and they wanted reliability, but he's not a rookie anymore. He's, he's got a whole extra year. He is the better player. And I think as the season goes along, he just, I really do think he wins the job. I'm pretty bullish on Travion Henderson, but to me, that was the answer to the question of who's got the weird talent versus opportunity. If he had the opportunity, he would take over and be a world beater. But I will say there is, there's obviously a middle ground, which we, you know, we saw that a lot of people talk about this as like the lion's light, you know, the, the, the Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery. It's a really good comp. I think that both David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs are better than their counterparts here on the Patriots. Remond, Remondrey is not as good as David Montgomery. I don't believe in. I don't think Travion Henderson is as good as Jameer Gibbs, but that is kind of, you saw what happened where it just became more and more Gibbs's team to the point where eventually they just were like, okay, we're better off if we get rid of Montgomery. And I, I think that is the future for dynasty leagues with Henderson. A year from now, Travion Henderson, like I've, I've had a lean a direction. We have an RB 13. I would lean toward, he's top 10. Like it, like eventually, they get, so in terms of if you're making moves or trying to value him, I feel like we're saying he's going to move in that direction. One quick stat is the Patriots trailed on just 19% of his rush attempts, which was the lowest in the NFL. So he was in there a lot when they were up. We saw them like have a bunch of those games. Like let's say it's more competitive this year. They work more into the lineup when they're trailing. Like I just think there's more opportunities and please like throw them the ball. Remondrey was good as a pass catcher, but just throw Travion the ball. Well, the issue is they're replacing like Mac Holland's routes, no disrespects to the shoelace wonder with AJ Brown. And it's like when they drop back, they're not probably not designing stuff for the running backs anymore. Like and Romeo Dodger, the wide receiver talent also got upgraded. So it's tricky with the target share of the running backs. I want to bring up Matthew Golden. Somebody that if you've listened to this podcast over last year, we haven't been super kind about. We weren't kind about the per route metrics and how he earned targets. And that was our biggest issue when he got drafted in first time like this is a third round player. I went back and I watched every single Matthew Golden route 247 routes. A lot of them were quite boring. And I also watched that playoff game against Chicago where he went for for 84 and a touchdown. That touchdown was awesome. I don't know if you guys remember it was like that screen where he jumped over a couple of people's spawn like that was a big boy awesome play. And one of the things that I did notice is that when they moved him into the slot like it worked like in week four against Dallas. That was that game that was 40 to 40. I don't know if if you guys all remember Packers and Cowboys 40 to 40 tie over time. Yeah, that was fun. Yeah. He had this deep bomb catch. He had this important fourth down catch and over time. There was also play Romeo Dodgs, who was the team's best blocker did not block at all. Like Golden got blown up on a screen where I think he could have scored the game winner. But whenever he was in the slot, he's really really good. And last year, I just look at what he did and what Watson did. That's going to be the question for me. I know that Jayden Reed can play there and will play there. But whenever Golden and Watson moved to the slot bigger slot wide receivers, like they were really good. So in three wide receiver sets, I think it's, you know, it's Golden, it's Watson. It's read in two wide receiver sets. If it's Golden and Watson, I think we can see a little boost here, especially inside the red zone. He just was never even on the field. So I'm trying to figure out with him is the price so low that I'm willing to throw a second round pick next year. Because that was kind of the price that I'm willing to pay. But somebody that got him this past year probably got it with the late first. But I'm like, I'm more intrigued than I was a year ago. Interesting. So you're, you're in on him taking that step forward. Obviously has the opportunity. You know, in two wide receiver sets, he's going to be on the field. And three wide receiver sets, he's going to be on the field. He's their first round draft pick. And it's good offense. We were not very bullish on the prospect. And I'm still skeptical that he will earn consistent targets. You know, it's funny because he had his like big game. But it's very similar to what he did in college. Where he's like, he just disappears. Dispires huge game. It's like, I don't know. He needs to look at what he's eating for breakfast on those days and be like, do more of that. Did you trade a late second for him? Man, 2027 projects to be a deep draft. I would trade a 2028 second for him. Whenever it's that far away, just take something now. I'm wanting to look. I know Andy traded format. You golden. I just was curious what he traded. So Andy traded in our main dynasty league format. You golden for a 2028 second and a 2028 third. And I think that's great. I think that's the price. I'm willing to go. I don't, I don't think it's a bad. Obviously, if golden hits, you're stealing him for a 2027 second. He's a first round pick on a good offense going into a second year. So you just have to make that bet. I don't want to make that bet. Cause I don't think he'll hit, but moving out two years and to a worse projected draft class, I'd do it. Yeah, I think that's, I'm with you guys. I mean, based off what he did this past year as a rookie, like he falls into the bucket of like, it's an uphill battle, right? Like he was already not a great prospect. Year one did not go well. The guys that fall into that bucket historically have not worked out. But if the cost is a 2028 second, I'm happy to find out. I think I'd keep all my 2027 picks. I give people, if you have to pick one game, watch the playoff game and just watch down the stretch, he was more important than I remembered, especially huge four down catch with a minute left, where he was the first read on the play. I'm like, this, this, Matthew, I have to go back and watch because I do think that there's a lot of literally pre NFL draft bias. Oh, same. Where and then post NFL draft bias because I was so pissed that he was drafted so high and that we had to like take him seriously. And then it was all right. So I just, I want to, I want to clean, I want to cling to, you know, the, the takes that worked, but I, I'll go back and watch later and in the season and the playoff game and see if maybe he's, because you know, he's a rookie. I think this is my personality. This is your, your guy this year, your mind guys, Matthew Golden, maybe, my 2025. So yes. Next thing you know, he's going to say he likes Colson, Loveland, you know what I mean? It's just all the guys. We gotta go the line somewhere. All the guys, we won't allow it, Kyle. I'm just going to smile and just just look at that. But yeah, no, it would be very meaty. Like, I don't like this player, but you know what? Now I really like this player and he can be like, no, I just, it shocked me that I would be semi interested in him. Let's hit quick break and we'll answer some listener questions. If you want to get all of your questions answered, our discord channels for our baller's discord or dynasty channels, dynasty superflex, I mean, right, right. And then then now people are in there. So jump in there when you get a second. Mailbag. All right. We're going to start this off with the source B situation. Actually, I see a question above that. This question is coming in from the people. And the question says, if I wanted to see you guys in person and visit a taping of the show live in Phoenix, for the main fantasy footballers podcast, where would I go? Let me tell you, you'd go to ballerslive.com. Get a ticket for the Megalus show. We're doing it in our home state. We're not sure a bet. I know you're flying out Kyle's T, Kyle's TBD. So you can, you can see the boys there. The, you know, the whole staff because we're doing an Arizona where we're located. But if you want to see the main fantasy footballers podcast, be a part of the live taping the show. We'll probably have some questions, some shenanigans. I know we've got some special things planned. Special things. Barry, we would love to have you. It's our one show of the year. And so, you know, it's Friday, August 28th, marker calendars, take a week and trip out to Phoenix, play around at golf, see a live show, hang out with the greatest people ever. You can get tickets, all that information and more at ballerslive.com. I feel like after all that, you're going to maybe not come. I mean, I mean, I mean, I want to dig in more, but it's a, it's a, it's a company event. And on top of that, like just being in the audience, like I, you know, I get to be a part of the show and like preparing and stuff, but just like actually enjoying what we do. And people are participating. I think people don't realize like it's not just you're listening to any Mike and Jason. You are participating in the show very much. You get to be a part of everything that we do. And we have some really fun segments we do every single year. So ballerslive.com. I'm glad you interrupted me. Well done for the people. All right. So this question is about Brennan Soresby. Jason referenced him earlier talking about the quarterback from quote unquote, Texas tech, because he didn't really go there. But here's the question from Randall. They asked, how are you guys handling the Brennan Soresby situation in dynasty leagues? Should he be considered a rookie? Should you use the fab waiver system? Should you use draft picks? How does this work? And just to give you some context, supplemental drafts don't happen in the NFL that much. And then they don't really affect fantasy leagues that much. I'm looking back over the last 15 years. We have Josh Gordon and Terrell prior. This is 2011, 2012. Those those are a long time ago, but those are really important players. I mean, made a made big fantasy impacts. And so, yeah, most years we don't have a supplemental draft. And then if we do, it's not really fantasy relevant. This one matters because this is a true dual threat quarterback. So your super flex leagues out there. And we don't know where he is going yet, but he could very well end up the way that the supplemental draft works is you have like a first round where the loser teams out there get to go first and get to kind of bid on these. Cardinals. Yeah. Like the Cardinals and the jets and the Browns and all those. And they get the first opportunity to take a shot. So because of that, it's, I don't know if I would say likely, but it's very, very realistic that he ends up on a team that is very quarterback needy and has an opportunity to be a starter. And so, you know, if you go back in time and he was in this draft and he goes to one of those teams, we would be talking about him. You know, we would be having the conversation of, I mean, really, it just depends on where he would have gone in the draft. Would he go, would you be talking about him with Mendoza or would you be talking about him with like played club, club Nick, you know. So TBD on that, however, what has to be determined now is how does your league deal with it if your rookie drafts are done. Obviously, if your rookie drafts haven't gone yet, then whatever, just right. I have them in there. Throw them in there. Yeah. I think that's the first question. Then we can ask the question about his talent. So if your league has already had your rookie draft, you really, if you want to emulate what the NFL does, which is kind of a blind system of draft picks, right? You're basically saying, I mean, there's lots of different options here. But let's say that Betts and I both wanted to put in a blind pick of our 2027 picks and say, okay, I think he's worth a second rounder and Betts without me knowing also submits a bid for a second rounder. It would then be like the NFL. It's in order of who was a worst team. So if I was a worst team last year, then I would get the priority. But basically you can if you want to in your league, say my 2027 pick, I am calling it as Brennan Soresby. If you want to in a one quarterback league, it's different. But in a super flex league, I think this is a very, very big conversation. That's how I would do it. Yeah. So another, another option just kind of to piggyback off what Kyle said is similar situation instead of the tiebreaker being like if we both said a 27 second. Instead of the tiebreaker being last year's record or standings, I've seen recommendations out there that you include an amount of your fab if your league plays that way. So if Kyle said I do a 2027 second and $50 of fab and I only did $25 of fab with a second, he would get the player. So there's multiple ways to do it. There's not really a right or wrong. It's kind of just what you and your league want to do. Yeah. It's 100%. There is no right or wrong here. I do believe that not having the fab in there is the way I would I would personally view it because it is a draft pick. And so essentially if one team were to draft him ahead based on draft order, the other team no longer gets to be like, well, I spent more fab on him. And since that's the way that the NFL actually does it really does make sense where you don't know what your 2027 pick you're giving up is, right? You don't know if you're picking second or seventh or 12 because you want the championship. I mean, you got a good idea if you're probably early middle or late. But right now if you would have had an earlier pick, you're, you're sacrificing a better next year pick to get him. And I like the strategy that that adds in. It, you know, it's like, oh gosh, I really need him because my team sucks. And you know, at quarterback and a super flex, but also my team sucks and it's, I'm going to have a really good pick. So maybe I go to the third round and hope no one gives a second. The one, the biggest downside here and I haven't looked into it, but it's like, you have to have a system here to do a blind bidding thing. I'm sure there's a website out there. Do either of you know like where you could go to just do a blind bid? Because you could submit everything to the commissioner, but then the commissioner would be able to see it. Yeah. So if you want to find a third party app or if you want to have a person outside of the league or something like that to just everybody submit that way, that's the way to do it. But so there's a, there's a fair way to do this. But I, I kind of see how this is going to go down because I know how pay and football people work. I know how degenerates are. People are going to start placing league parlays on the parlay king himself. And basically seeing who wins out. Yes, it's going to happen. The other two options for your league. is an honestly the easiest option. The absolute easiest to implement, you don't need to find some way to do it, is you just say he's in next year's draft. You can't roster him this year, he's gonna be in the 27 draft. We'll have more information, how did he do as a rookie, did he play, did he not, but that's kind of exciting for the next year's draft that's loaded already, it's like, oh, hey, this guy, going into year two, that's a fun, unique thing. I mean, all of these are fun and unique. The last option, and probably my least favorite, is just put him in the waivers, make sure everyone knows he is out there on the day and everyone has the 24 hours and just have your fab system run. The issue I have there is a lot of fab has been spent, in most leagues, if your rookie draft is over, people have already gone to the waiver, spent fab, you can't blame or punish a manager for not knowing that there was gonna be a supplemental draft from a guy that got denied. So that to me feels like the least fair system, but it is definitely an option. - I agree with that. - So now what about the prospect? - Whew, so I'll give you a couple of numbers here, because started in Indiana, went to Cincinnati. This past year, the thing that's most compelling for the game that we play is that he had 25% of Cincinnati's rushing yardage. To give you context, that's like, near where Kyler Murray was when he was coming out. That's a head of trail ants and Anthony Richardson. So we're getting a dual threat quarterback and I want that. I want to take shots on that in the NFL. Now we don't know how the NFL sees it because there's the PR part of going after a player. There's the draft pick part of this player. So like, I'm interested because he runs. He does have some flaws in him in terms of accuracy and the system that he was a part of that I have some questions with. But as like a, everyone keeps saying he's a first round talent and I just want to be clear. We get about 10 of those quarterbacks at this point in the process every year that are first round talents. Last year it was Garrett Nuss-Bire, Kabe Club Nick, all these guys that are Drew Aller, they were first round talents and things changed. So I don't really buy into that part. I think that I am personally willing to spend a second in a superflex, but I think most people have that thinking too. So then it's like the game theory part of like, if everybody's doing that, if you really need him, I understand, but I'm not spending a first. - I can't, especially if it's a 27 first. I mean, that draft is loaded. And honestly, if you really need him, you're probably not a good team. You know what I mean? That's a great point. - So if you're not that good a team, you're talking about a really expensive pick. And if, look, there's two ways that that happens, maybe you're in a rebuild or maybe you're a bad manager. And we're here to save the bad managers. If you're a bad team, don't spend a first round on this guy. You're gonna want your 27 first. You'll probably get a better quarterback if you need a quarterback at that point. The prospect is interesting for fantasy. And obviously, we'll talk about it again after he lands on a team. Right now, not knowing where he goes. We don't know if he's gonna end up having the opportunity to start week one for a franchise desperate for a quarterback. If he's the backup for, I think right now the jets are probably the leading candidate because they have so much draft capital to sacrifice and to give up and a need at quarterback. That makes sense to me. 'Cause Geno's the starter probably either way. Then you get to play around with some future draft capital. See if you got an answer now. There's also a chance I always find like, when these, whenever something like this happens, where it's just like, not only are dynasty leagues behind the eight ball here, but NFL teams are as well. They weren't as prepared for this situation as they are for the NFL draft. And so whenever there's kind of like rare events, rare rules, less knowledge and experience on it, I always go how he'll take advantage. So somehow it'll drop out of that first group. And it'll be like, he'll just be an eagle and the heir apparent to Jalen Hertz. And it'll be the right, I know it'll be the right pick if that happens. I, man, a player betting on football, I can forgive if he's a wide receiver, if he's a running back, if he's a cornerback, is very difficult for me to take the brain of the operation, the guy who needs to be so unbelievably smart and be like, yeah, the franchise quarterback is gonna be the college kid who bet on football. I, I mean, that's, that's silly 'cause it's not a, it's not a, you know, a football, stat analysis, not a film analysis, but it also, these are real human beings and this is, there are some things that just make sense in life. And I don't know the details. I don't know, I don't know all the details. I'd have to look into it, but that would be like a red flag for me if I was a GM. I'd be like, I don't know, do we really want to go in on this guy? I think that's a very fair point to bring up and not just that, but like, like you said, at this point, it's already mid-June. We think this supplemental draft probably happened sometime in July. Training camp will open a week after that or two weeks after that. It's like you're asking this guy who was not part of this pre-draft process that not just join a team, but join a team when the train is already moving and left the station. Like he will have five or six weeks to like get ready for the NFL season and learn a playbook. And nobody's gonna put him in there in the first two or three months of the year and then you're asking yourself in December. Like, okay, I guess we'll put him out there and just give him a couple of starts and see what happens. So all this to say is I think if this works out for the NFL and for him and for fantasy, it would be a huge shock to me, quite honestly. Like there's just so many factors kind of against it. And so in my leagues, most likely, somebody else will be more excited about this situation than I will be from a draft capital standpoint, but I think we all agree like, no way would any of us risk a 2027 first? So if you're considering doing that, certainly we advise against that. - And if you're curious, I have plugged him into my Felix models, my talent, scout models and all of that. - That's everything. - Now, it's not everything yet because we don't know the draft capital. So I'm putting in a projected second round draft capital. I mean, I don't even know how to score. I don't have enough historical data on, you know, supplemental drafts. Put in a second round draft capital and he was like 72nd percentile Felix, which would be relevant, but it would be after Fernando, after Tyson Sin and as a talent score, I don't publish that, but that's if you take all draft capital out 54th percentile, which would be after Carson Beck and Cade Klobnik, but TBD and I'll rerun that and publish it once he has a real team in draft capital. 72nd percentile puts him right above Kyle Trask, former Jason favorite. - I did listen to him. - In terms of historical precedent. Yeah, it's not just what does his team think about this player? It is what are you inviting in July, media wise to your team? Like that's like, do you want to inject that into your team? 'Cause it's gonna be a huge story. When, if a team selects him and you're drawing attention to a player that, if he was a second round NFL draft pick for a team, I'm not expecting him to start week one at all. He would not get the same attention, but now he would be getting a ton of attention. So there's lots of different layers to it. I do think it's fun that we get some conversation, a little jolt in June for our Dynasty leagues. All right, next question is from Andy on X. He asked, "Which Jaguars-Wired receiver, would you like for this year and for the future?" And I'm gonna give a caveat with this question, price sensitive, which Jaguars-Wired receiver would you want moving forward? So thinking of like how much it would cost to acquire Brian Thomas Jr. or Parker Washington, Jacobi Myers, Travis Hunter, if you wanna throw them in there. Who do you like moving forward? - Do you have startup ADP? - Yeah, I can look that up. For me, my quick answer is Brian Thomas Jr., just because I feel like the price is so low now that I'm willing to shoot my shot and say that this offense change is moving forward. - I was going to answer the same just because of the cost aspect of it. And what he did is a rookie, like we talked about him a lot on the show over the last year and a half, where it's like, I don't think you just luck into doing what you did as a rookie unless you actually are very talented as a player. So I still think that version of him is in there somewhere. We'll see if the income can get the best out of him. I think at this point though, if you're talking startup, Kyle, maybe you can pull the numbers of where he's going. I'm fascinated to know what Travis Hunters start up ADP is because if we're talking about upside case relative to cost, if he's going well after Brian Thomas Jr., then perhaps that's my answer, but I think he's going well after. I mean, he's a worth a later round pick. - All right, so Hunter is at Yd Receiver 50. I'm taking an average from a couple of websites. Parker Washington, Yd Receiver 39. And then Brian Thomas Jr. is Yd Receiver 26. I think relative to cost for potential outlook, it would be Hunter, but for this year, probably BTJ. - Is BTJ for me? - Yeah, it's BTJ for me as well. I mean, I think they're, genuinely, I think they're all worth trying to acquire at their cost. Parker Washington included. - I forgot Jacobi Myers, sorry. Jacobi. - Yeah. Jacobi to me is not really worth anything. The one that's paid the like the most. most made the most and very well might lead them in targets, but it's also like who has him in Dino junior. You. I mean, he's not a needle mover for fantasy. So it's just irrelevant. You know, he'll be a flex play on some odd weeks, but that's not what you're going to give up draft capital to acquire. You're hoping the Parker Washington's late season breakout was real. You're hoping that, you know, the draft capital, the other two guys matters to me. Brian Thomas, junior, not only have we seen it. He did it. But the draft capital stays with him the rest of his career, even post jaguars or second contract. The talent and that draft capital are clearly why I would, I would take the shot at that. You know, I'm curious. If you look at like Brian Thomas, junior versus Marvin Harrison, junior, I don't know where they're going in drafts, but it is funny that it's like, well, we haven't had the opportunity to see Marvin break out, but he was injured. I'm just curious if he's going around Brian Thomas, junior because we've already seen Brian Thomas do it. He's going ahead of him. Yeah. So that's a curious flight. Who's going first? Marvin. Marvin is going ahead and that is basically because the the stink of the last two months of BTJ. It carries over in the off season. And I know that more of the more kind of gets a year. He gets this weird pass and I have Marvin. I want him to do well, but because Marvin was kind of hurt over the back half, we kind of get to like reset a little bit, but BTJ got punished more in terms of value. Yeah. Really? Because what we saw last year was Brian Thomas, junior be bad. What we saw last year from Marvin was we don't know. He was okay and then got injured. Still could break out. However, we have seen one of these guys dominant on the field and he's going behind the other. So the best indicator of future success is past success. It will be interesting with this team. I know they drafted, tied in and second round Nate Borkerture. They said they're going to do 12 personnel. But my opinion is that their GM James Gladstone loves sniffing his own farts. He loves thinking that he's the smartest man in the room. And I just feel like you're getting to this point where like your core players are your wide receivers. That's the best part of your team. So hopefully they run enough three wide receiver sets, right? With Washington, Jacobi and BTJ. It's funny because I think if they run more 12 personnel, no one benefits as much as Brian Thomas, junior. Yes. Yes. Because he's the one guaranteed locked on the outside in all those groupings and target consolidation and 12 personnel is great for wide receivers. All right. Let's hit quick break and we'll talk some more. Question from the website from Jeff with a G in Arizona. Oh, he must be going to the live event on August 28th at ballerslive.com because it's in Phoenix, Arizona. We'll see you there, Jeff. Jeff or G off, whichever way you want to say it. It's an interesting question. Which stack do you like the most of new teammates? And I'll just say like for the NFL, like which pairing do you like the most for the NFL? Is it Josh Allen and DJ Moore, Kyler and Justin Jefferson, Drake May and AJ Brown are bonics and Jalen Waddle. So we can do the fantasies. I but let's just say for the NFL, which pairing do you like the most? I mean, it's a it's the same for both. It's the same for both. It's easy. We all have the same answer, right? It's got to be Drake May and AJ Brown. Okay. That's the best. Yeah. I mean, that's best for the NFL. This is a Super Bowl losing team last year who gets a true alpha when they really didn't have it. A young MVP runner up quarterback who didn't have an alpha. Now he has, I mean, this is just wonderful. And I think for fantasy football, AJ Brown just became so fascinating because AJ Brown at his age on the Eagles feels like going to be hard to get out of. And he because of this trade and now he is on a team that passes the ball way more with a much better pocket passing quarterback that projects to probably score more points. They don't quite have the defense. Now all of a sudden, if you want to get out of AJ Brown, because you're not necessarily contender in your, your team's aging out, you can get something for AJ Brown. And if you are going for it, I don't mind trading for AJ Brown because I do think he has two more years of dominant fantasy football. And then obviously all of that adding, adding dobs and AJ Brown to Drake May, just make Drake May so appealing as a, as a young prospect. But I don't think you're getting Drake May from anybody right now. I got nothing else to add at this is the easy answer for me because it's like we've talked about the DJ more thing, guys changing teams at the stage of the career, generally speaking not great when you, when players show that decline, they'll spread the ball out and Buffalo. Kyler's kind of a question mark. I mean, we all can see the upside case, but it's still a question mark. And Nixon Waddle, it's like, well, you know, Sean Peyton just loves this rotation spread the ball out type of approach. Like AJ Brown is going to complain if he doesn't get the football. He is, he's that type of receiver. And Drake May will pepper him. So I think Brown is going to have an unbelievable season this year. Players changing players, changing teams at wide receiver late in their career. Here's why here's how it looks universally does not work with a few outliers. And those outliers are like Hall of Fame caliber guys. It's, it's, you know, the Vante Adams, it's Brandon Marshall. It's like the guys who are like, they're, they're world clad. They're not DJ Moore's a good wide receiver. You know, a Mario Cooper was a good wide receiver, both very highly drafted guys had a good career. They never in their careers were considered like when, when you ask NFL players, who are the best three wide receivers in the league? And you know, they're throwing Justin Jefferson, like no one was throwing DJ Moore in there. You know, but AJ Brown will get thrown in there, of course. Right. I do like Waddle. I like this spot for Waddle. And I'm, he's never going to be what they were a couple years ago where he was hyper targeted and was with Tyrick. I, I'm leaving the light on for Waddle to kind of have a resurgence. If he stays on the field. Next question is also from somebody in Arizona, Mark and Glendale. Oh, we know what he's doing. Glendale's close to Phoenix. You should go on August 28th to the ballers live event. It's going to be awesome. Man, we got some people submitted stuff on the website. This one's about taxi squad. Mark says, this is my first time doing a dynasty league this year. And post-strapped, I saw we had something called a taxi squad. How do you best utilize this for your teams? My quick answer is I think they're fun, but if you're league as extra roster spots, it's kind of similar to me, but it's, it's usually just a spot for stashing prospects. They don't count against your roster limit and they don't score points. Yeah. Yeah. It doesn't change a lot for me. It doesn't change a lot. I mean, it changes for certain player types, like a Thai Simpson is a, like, okay, that's awesome. That's a perfect taxi squad guy. You're probably not going to use him this year, maybe not even like next year, but eventually he is the starter. It's really for the true stash players. Sometimes there's hyper talented players who aren't very ready yet or running backs who are drafted, who go to a clogged roster spot, but I don't know. Taxi squads are dumb to me. Just give me more. We've been playing along enough. Each of us with and without, it doesn't make a huge difference. The guys that get put on taxi squads are the guys that are true lottery tickets that, generally speaking, will sit there for a year. You'll see, maybe there's a smart opportunity here. You move up to the active roster. You drop in the next season. Yeah. It's like almost how it always goes because the top rookies that you take in the first round of your draft, unless your team is like unbelievably loaded, you're not putting that guy on the taxi squad. These are all like your third round rookie picks, your fourth round rookie picks. Dehagopavian. Dehagopavian is a perfect taxi squad guy. He might not have, might not even be on a practice field. Yeah. Eli and Hayden Reich. Oh Hayden Reich. He shouldn't be on your taxi squad. No, he should be in your starting lineup, man. I know you want him to be a thing. It's, do whatever you want in your league. It's fun. If you want to have five extra roster spots, it's pretty much the same thing to me, but it's more about bragging that I had this player on a taxi squad. And now they've been hiding. Hayden Reich is actually a perfect name for that. Yeah. Seventh round running back. This question is about Devon H&N from Greg on X. He said that Dolphins offensive line and the offense could be terrible. How concerned are you about H&N? Would you try to move him for something like Judkins plus? Depends what the plus is. Yeah, it depends on the plus, but I'm not moving H&N just because I think this offense and because the offensive line could be bad. I mean, like, was it good last year? Was it there often? It was very, very bad. And he was totally fine. And they had Jay-Lin Marvel to throw the ball to. Yeah, I'm not doing this. I'll start to listen to some factors that I think about with running backs. It's like, do I think they're talented? And obviously he checks the box. The team's situation, their opportunity does, do they catch the ball and their o-line? It's like all of those things are important, but you don't just take one of those and then say because of that situation, I have to be out on this player. Like you're holding four or five things, intention when you're looking at any player, not just like one aspect. Yeah. So just to Devon H&N is a true dual threat. You know, he's such a good pass catcher that if they're down, he's going to be, he's their most important weapon. And so will he have 10 touchdowns? No, no, he won't because the dolphins won't score that many touchdowns. Will he have consistent fantasy scores? Yeah, he'll catch a lot of passes, even if you've got a mobile quarterback in Malik, that he's their best weapon. Also, you feel like, okay, he's, you know, he's a couple years into his career and he's undersized. So maybe, maybe he's a little fragile. He's young. He's 24 years old. He's the same age as Cam Skataboo. You know, he's a year older than most of last years, you know, Hampton and Trevo and he's just got a brand new big boy contract. So I think he's, I think he's great. I mean, he's my running back five in dynasty. You, five or six, I think depending on, depending on how I wake up, Hampton and HN are, one of them is the guy after the clear top four. Jason just told us the dolphins are scoring 10 touchdowns in the entire. He's not poor. What an offense. I will say for me on HN, I'm a little bit behind, like, best ball ADP on where HN goes, but for dynasty, I'm still varying on this player. Like, for this year, we all have concerns about offensive environment and like McDaniel leaving and how many scheme targets he got, like, Bobby slow, it's not the same coordinator as McDaniel. So I think just systemically, there's more fragility around what could happen this year. But if we're thinking about beyond this year, he's still going to be in his prime for another two or three years. So given the way he scores fantasy points, if I have him in dynasty, I'm not actively trying to unload him, but if somebody wants to pay top dollar for him, I'd at least listen. So like, if it was Juddkins and a 27 first, would you guys do that? I would, I would be open to that. Yeah, I would consider that with a 27 first day, it would, it would really depend on is that a bad team? Like, do I get a chance at a top 27 pick? Because those will be real, real valuable here in a couple of months. But yeah, I do agree with you that I'm less bullish. Like, I'm the lowest. If we just look at our ultimate draft kit rankings for redraft, he's my running back nine. So I, a little bit less, you know, Andy has him at four, Mike has him at five. I've got him at nine. So there is concern with the offense, but he is too talented and he's all alone. Honestly, I could feel so dumb at the end of the year for ranking him ninth. Next one is from Soul Chick. It's a quick one. It's, would you rather have Teteromaic Millen or Buka locked into your wider seaborone spot for the next five years? Teteromaic Millen was almost my answer for the quick question of talent versus opportunity. Cause I think he's so talented and I, I would pick, this is McMillan to me. I, he is so dog on good. And I went back, I've watched, I spent some time just watching pretty much every quarterback to just remind myself when you watch play after play after play after play, and you get to see him isolated. Bryce Young is not good, man. I don't think he's ever going to be, I don't think he's ever going to be it. It's just not good. And so that's the downside of his opportunity. But I think I take Teteroma. If I have to have him locked in my wider seaborone spot, we saw enough fears at the end of last year with it. Buka, um, Tetsa, Tetsa, he's an alpha. He's a one. I agree. I think they had a pretty comparable rookie year. I know it was obviously bumpy for a Buka, but like, into totality, efficient players, good rookie season. You're excited about what could be in year two, but I just go back to the prospect profile. It's like, we all thought TET was awesome. Top 10 pick. Give me that guy. Yeah. All right. A couple of trade questions. Here's one's from Chris in Clearwater, Florida. He says, I'm a competing team. And I would receive McCuy Limon and Josh Downs and trade away Teteroma McMillan. Okay. So Limon and Downs for McMillan, would you do that deal? He also adds in FYI. He said, Chef Jason, if you sous-v leftover steaks and pork butts, it's the only way to eat leftovers. Really leftovers. sous-v leftovers. I know you have some steak leftovers. Oh, yeah. I literally have two fillets in my, I cooked them last night and I've got them leftover. I'm going to try, I might try this today. Am I trying to cook? It makes complete sense because usually when you sous-v, you really need to, you need to get a good like char afterwards. You've got to still grill it. Otherwise, it just looks like a sloppy, wet piece of meat. Interesting. I'm totally trying this. I had to add that in there because he put in his note. I was like, okay, Jason needs to hear that. That's a good one. I will come, remind me two weeks from now to just say if this guy's a genius or an idiot, because there's no in between here. I can't wait to email him back and just say you're an idiot. Yeah. Um, Chef James is really good. Michael, I live in, Michael, I live in Josh Downs for Teteramick Millen Betts. I would not. I think I do. I think that's the guy. Yeah, we're going, we're going back to back. TET question answers. I like lemon, but we haven't seen it yet and he's buried a little bit. I like Josh Downs opportunity a lot. But if those two guys do as expected and they're both decent players, you're always going to win in fantasy. Having a great player over two decent players. I mean, you just, because you know what you get to do when you have TET, you get to find another decent player and put him in that other fantasy slot. You don't, he doesn't take up two slots. Always the elites win championships. Yeah, take best player here and lemon could end up being really great. He could end up being the best player. I, I, I adored his film, um, but TBD. Another question, trade question from Logan in Texas, which side do you prefer? Luther Burton and a projected late first next year or a Buka and Jonathan Brooks. That is tough. I think I go Lubu and the first. I think I do too. I think it's my, the question is how much more valuable is a Buka than Burton? Because I think we want a Buka overburdened. Yes. And then it's really kind of asking what is the gap between that and Brooks? And I think it's just, I'd rather have Burton in the first. Yeah. Man, this is, this is tough. I think most people would say Burton in the first for where burdens going right now and redraft. People are assuming that it's a done deal that he is going to be the breakout starwater receiver. Um, if that, if he is, this is an easy burden in the first. I am on the more skeptical side. I'm still on the Rome is the number one side. So this is closer to me. And while I'm getting really excited for Jonathan Brooks to see him again, the gap between Jonathan Brooks and a 27 first feels enormous. Like I would not get, I, I think I offered 29 second for Brooks the other day. You know, so it's like, I'm in the field real. No, I know, I know. That's why it's a good trade. Yeah. It's like, this is a countdown. Of course. But, um, no, I appreciate the effort because I would do something like that too. I'm like, Hey, you want some people they, they look at Jonathan Brooks and they just go, Oh, I could get something for this guy who, you know, but I think most people have caught on that he's healthy. Now, yeah, I'm going to, I'm going to go the burden side and hope burden breaks out. Because it's not like a book is a guaranteed to be great either. And I think that's what's kind of missing here. Like we, we hope we assume, I think all three of us believe that a book is, going to be a great wide receiver and show that, you know, the beginning of the year is more who he was than the end. But he also showed the end. So it's not, it's not a locked guarantee that, you know, he's not Malik neighbors, um, where you're like, Oh, yeah, he just is that guy for sure. All right. Final question here. This is from Rafa. And he asked the question about some nasty boys, early nasty boys, which, that's early in the process. They will start emerging over the summer. But I'm going to give you guys a list. I went through our dynasty startup ranks. I'm going to start from the less nasty to the most nasty at running back. And you just, if somebody pops up, you're like, okay, I'm interested. Let me know. I feel like these are guys outside of top 60. Keaton Mitchell. Of course. Does he count as a nasty boy, though? He's not nasty. He absolutely counts as a nasty boy. He's like, he's dirty. Keaton Mitchell isn't dirty enough. No, I'm excited to have Keaton Mitchell. Keaton Mitchell is absolutely nasty boy. He is a, you know, what year is he is he in year four of his career, a throwaway piece that has never done anything other than have an explosive play. He qualifies as a nasty boy. Now I know he's the nasty hotness right now. Everyone's excited to see him with nasty, the hot nasty. Everyone's excited to see him with McDaniel on that scheme. And I, I think that he is exciting. But unless an Amarian Hampton injury happens, I don't, I don't think he is relevant. So I'm starting there, which is to me, the least nasty of this group. And then it gets worse. Part of the process is I just want to find something that's maybe not even on a roster. Like I want someone that nasty, like not even on an NFL roster yet. Keaton Allen. Jordan James. I'm definitely on on 40 back. 49ers fifth round 2025 draft pick could be the, you know, it's like this is, is this the year, Christian, the referee goes down. Whenever he does, the backups and services score very, very, very important. And we don't know who that's gonna be. But if we had to take a guess, like I would probably put it on Jordan James right now, would you guys go get a little black? - I think local beats are also in agreement that they are theorizing that it'll be James, at least at the first crack at the RB2 job. - Classic 49ers, they use a pick to like, "Ha, you think it's this guy?" That's a different guy. All right, a couple more real quick to close out the episode. Phil Maffa was a 7th round pick the Cowboys last year? - No, I'm not in. - Yeah. - Okay. Demon Clayborn, a 6 round pick by the Vikings this year. - I'm kind of interested. - He fits the system well. I could see him working out. But he's behind two guys, you know, I mean, I wonder what's the question. - I wonder what's the question, yeah, 'cause obviously he should be rostered in dynasty for sure. - Would you call your shot on him being a nasty boy and eventually having some run this year? - No, I would call my shot on the next guy though. - Oh. - You like a nasty boy to Jason? This is like a top tier prosper. - Eli Hayden-Rike, the Swiss Navy knife. He's, yeah, look. He's really good. He was, where was he drafted? Is he a 7th rounder? - 7th round. - Yeah, 7th round running back, obviously then. I believe he's good. - Elite taxi squad, as we said. Elite taxi squad player. - No, but he's really good. And I do think that the opportunity for him, Kenneth Gainwell led this team in targets because like I said, I watched a lot of quarterback videos. Oh, Aaron Rogers does not have the downfield anymore. - But it's a different system too. - It's a different system, but Aaron Rogers is gonna be checking the ball down. - I was gonna say, Rodgers is just taking zero hits this year. - I did hear you say the other day that you watched all of Rogers' deep ball pass and you're like, it's gone. It's over. - Yeah. - The deep ball is really intense. - I mean, Kurt Cousins, it's like they used to throw great deep balls, but they don't have it. And that makes sense. They're old. But yeah, I think if Hayden Wright gets the opportunity, he's going to do, what can he game well there last year? And it's gonna be like hard to get him off the field where it's like, oh man, I gotta keep using this guy. - I wanna keep mine in. It's early. We're gonna find some camp names of some random guy who happen to be running with the ones on a random Tuesday. - And don't worry, we have our official nasty boys show later this summer. So, - Mm, nasty. - It's intense. - Yes, yay. - All right, that's gonna do it for this episode. Make sure you go to ultimatedraftkit.com, but more important, ballerslive.com, join us in Arizona in August. We'll see you then. Good bye. (upbeat music) Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. If you wanna take your dynasty skills to the next level, check out the fantasyfootballers.com. [BLANK_AUDIO]