Talarico’s Texas Surge Should Terrify Republicans

hey everybody it's tim miller from the bulwark um subscribe to the feed i'm finally getting some momentum we're gonna get up to two million you know there are these crazy mega youtubes that have two million and so help us spread the good news i was on with katie turr uh earlier today and we were discussing this disconnect between trump and the voters a lot of the voters that voted for him in 24 on the matter of the economy and affordability and how out of touch he is and you know katie and i kind of regaled each other with thinking back to 2016 and the way that trump bubbled himself and how he's kind of gotten more and more out of touch over the last decade uh and um and with this crazy story that we discussed a little bit about how trump wants to use the money that his super PACs have raised to run ads about how great his accomplishments are instead of running ads to help republicans in the midterm so god willing that happens we analyze that a bit um and then we get into kind of how the democrats are doing you know some toots and boots on that if you will um and one thing i mentioned the texas senate race and since i've got off the air we have a new poll out um well kind of we have a series of three polls um somebody's pulling the texas house races and um if you look at the talarico number in some of these house districts uh it paints a pretty good picture for him as far as electability is concerned see let's look at these districts it's three districts um that that are all going to be very important in the house race as you have uh and they all are very heavily uh latino districts uh you have texas 15 which is bobby palito's district i've interviewed bobby on here huge fan of his uh tahana music singer um really good for the district uh the plus him winning as a district but republicans held uh then we have henry quayar who was like the one hispanic moderate democrat who held on you got him winning and then uh you have gonzalez and flores and texas 34 with california and in texas uh we're going to look at some of these districts and then we're going to look at some of these districts uh we're going to look at some of these districts uh we're going to look at some of these districts uh you have gonzalez and flores and texas 34 with gonzalez the democrat up by three so you have the democrats in the in the house race winning in all those places if you combined all three of those districts together and then you looked at the senate number talarico is winning by eight in those three districts over ken paxton same districts in 2024 uh the same poll had crews up by nine over colin allred he ends up winning by nine so that's a 17 point swing from this poll two years ago to now uh and then uh you had trump beating kamala in those districts uh by numbers ranging from 10 to 18 and then you have talarico winning by single digits so again huge huge uh swing you know particularly in the uh with hispanic latino voters down there in texas and if you look at each of the districts themselves just really quick 15 talarico's plus eight crews one by nine in texas 28 talarico's plus 10 crews one just barely by less than a percent and then in 34 talarico is up 11 cruise one by two so it's a 13 point swing a 10 point swing and a 17 point swing respectively um that's enough to win that's the path to win to be obvious about it um and uh talarico has a good message um he's benefiting from trump's rake stepping which we're about to talk about on the economy he's benefiting from just the heinous treatment of uh immigrants to this country particularly uh latino immigrants and then he's benefiting from immigrants uh and uh i i think that's that is causing a backlash um in that community that trump had been gaming with um in 2024 and uh i think it's a look talarico's gonna have to work and they're gonna throw the book at him um at you know to try to make him into you know the woke communist sharia law whatever they're gonna do everything long way to go to november the kind of these key places that are going to happen in the future and i think that's going to be a big part of this is um these inflection points uh talarico's showing the growth that you need um he's got to do it also in the more suburban districts continue to run up the numbers there got work to do with black voters in texas got to make sure the turnout there is high um jasmine crack is not helping with that um to her embarrassment really um and uh and then you know uh got to make sure that paxton's running up the numbers not getting um uh bashar asad numbers out there in rural texas so a lot of work to do about like in these key districts talarico's on path to victory and uh katie asked me about this on the show and uh stick around we talk about a little bit more subscribe to the feed please this message is sponsored by upwork one thing i've learned from working in media is that you can't do everything yourself i've tried it sucks i failed there's a point where 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own personal money along with their votes in donald trump we saw him install a new helipad on the white house he's building a new ballroom in the white house but he won't help with gas prices or help with us to live that's just ridiculous you it's ridiculous you have all this money and you you don't you don't want to support maybe i don't know what i'm trying to say it's just it's ridiculous how does it make you feel that president trump got two billion dollars richer in his first year of his second term i think that's bullcrap i didn't get i mean could split it with me and you you know but that's what happens i guess the rich get richer the poor get poor david graham of the atlantic says it is because the president has lost touch with the the rally circuit where he once heard directly from his supporters now he's insulated among billionaire buddies and supplicant aides like natalie harp who feed him a filtered version vision of the world through rose-colored gold-colored glasses excuse me that probably explains why he's waving off his plunging poll numbers and leaning into what he does best self-promotion according to ashley parker also of the atlantic he plans to make the midterms all about him replete with millions of dollars worth of tv ads blanketing the airways there's a little bit of a um a silver lining here i don't get to offer silver linings that much when you invite me on katie so i'm going to do one uh there's among you know all of the layers of corruption of this white house one thing i think has gotten less attention is that the administration really is shaking down corporations individuals to donate to these super packs this maga inc and say okay hey if you're looking for a meeting or regulation cut one great way to do it you know is to go to a trump aligned lobbyist in dc and then they'll point you to the fundraiser for maga inc and there's always a little bit of this in in washington but they've really supercharged it and as a result you know i've been talking to democratic strategists and some of these key red states in particular senate states the iowa ohio's of the world and they're nervous about the amount of money trump has and they're like you know look these are still red states you know we've got good candidates josh turrick or sherrod brown judge uh talarico but we're there to use all that money to really come in here and drive up our negatives too and so you know they've got to be thrilled to hear that trump is demanding that this money goes to you know spit on ads to show him talk about how great things are um which is probably going to be a net negative if anything um uh as far as tv ads are concerned uh with regards to kind of whether that helps the republican candidates in those states ashley hinson and iowa or uh you know john husted in ohio so i i think this is like a little bit of uh corruption god right what do they call them the gerrymander the dummy mander they thought that they were going to gerrymander to help republicans but it ended up kind of backfiring this might be a little bit of that uh but in the fundraising side of things tim from those voters who were talking to alex tabbitt i mean tabbitt raises how much money donald trump has made and the answer is not oh good great that means this country is doing well the answer is i'm not seeing that cash he's not sharing it with me i think that what basil just laid out there i think that was true about trump in 2016 and 2020 and then 2024 honestly i do think this worked for him people thought that oh you know he knows us how to make money, it's going to help me make money. And I think that helped him win in 2016. And then when they were annoyed about inflation in 2024, it helped him win in 2024. So I think that has worked for him. The problem is people aren't feeling that now. They're not feeling like things are getting better for them. You see this in every poll. Consumer confidence is as low as it's been. Feelings about the economy are low. It's been feelings about how he's handled it are low. And so then all of a sudden, his shtick really falls flat. And I've been kind of surprised myself, to be honest, in focus groups, ones that we do at the Bulwark and some other ones that I've seen from campaigns, where just like kind of swing voters, kind of Biden to Trump voters, a lot of them do bring up on their own, like, hey, I'm struggling. And he seems like he cares about this ballroom or the reflecting pool or that, you know, enter one example of one of Trump's things. That does feel like it's broken through this time in a way that Trump's always been like this. But, you know, it didn't trickle down to voters, I don't think, as clearly as it has in the last year. Well, it's interesting because a lot of when you talk to voters, there's a fascinating truism about the economy that voters react emotionally about it often, that they will say, I hate the economy until the day the president that they like takes office. And then they'll suddenly flip and they'll say, oh, I think the economy's doing great. So there is an emotional aspect to voters perceptions of how well they're doing, how well the country is doing. We just put up on the screen Donald Trump's approval numbers. He's underwater on every issue right now, on prices and inflation, on health care, on foreign policy, government funding, social programs, trade, education, elections, immigration, deportation, crime, border, everything, everything. He's underwater. And what is striking to me is especially the top line numbers on the economic stuff, Ashley, because that proves that Donald Trump doesn't have that ability to manipulate people's emotions is no longer working. And it's not just what they're feeling right now in terms of costs. It's when they look to the future. They are not optimistic that things are going to get better for them. Why, Tim, don't you think he's gone out and rallied? Why is he why is he lost his ability? Why is he why is he refusing to go out and get in touch with the very people that he was so good at understanding? The first time, the second time and the third time around. Well, he's really old. And so I do think that's part of it. You know, traveling at that age is tiring. 80. Yeah, it's tough. I think on top of that, I don't know if this is as true now. We'll see. They're going to do the RNC midterm thing, which I get, I think probably hurts them more than helps them outside of maybe Texas and engaging some voters there to turn out since they're not really thrilled about the. Person at the top of their ticket in Texas on the Republican side. But I think some of this was in the first year. To your point about him just being actually out of touch. I think he really just liked the fact that all the richest people in the world were coming up to suck up to him. And I think that he liked playing golf with Bryson DeChambeau. And I think that he liked, you know, that Elon was hanging out and having sleepovers in the White House. Like, I think that he was just having fun hanging out with the rich and famous and going to his golf clubs. And he didn't want him. I think that there was I think it was as simple as that in the first year. And maybe that's starting to change a little bit. As a mother. What is it like living with these economic conditions? It's hard. It's it makes me feel like I'm a horrible mother sometimes because I'm stressing about what I'm going to do. Or do I have enough money to put gas in? Or do I need to buy eggs and milk for my child? Or do I need to not go to work every day to make that money because gas prices are so expensive? And mind you, it could be my fault. I do work in clearing, but still that's a 45 minute drive. We're putting 80 bucks in every three days tops. Maybe it's it's just it's it's hard to feel good when when it everything's just going downhill. I feel like it's supposed to be going up. And sometimes yes, it's up. And then all of a sudden it just goes down. And then we're always told, you know, this is going to change or I'm going to make this better. We're going to make this better. But where's it at? We're not seeing it at all. Do you think Democrats are reaching out effectively? Or are they battling their own demons? I think it's a mixed bag. I think the one thing that Democrats are doing good is they're talking about affordability. I think some Democrats think that like saying the word affordability is like an amulet that allows them to kind of check the box. And I think that they're going to have to go a little bit further than that. You know, and I think that there's some who are doing that really well. Like we've mentioned, Tallarica, you know, I think even the center left Democrats could learn a lot from Zoran. Like he doesn't talk about affordability like it's an academic exercise. If you've listened to his speeches and his content, he's usually giving like tangible examples of of cab drivers, halal trucks, like people, you know, who are struggling and what he's going to do to help them. I think the Democrats could do a little bit better on that. And they could probably do the hairless infighting about random streamers as well. So, you know, there's a little room for growth, but they're doing pretty good. Tell me about the hairless infighting about random streamers. What does that mean? I just, you know, I mean, the Michigan Senate race, I mean, Abdul El-Sayed, look, it's his job right now to go win over. Alyssa Slotkin won in 2024, the senator, more of a centrist Democratic senator. She won. Kamala Harris lost in the same ballot. Say that's got to go convince those voters. And he's got to also convince the kind of Bernie to Trump voters like these. These are the types of people that he needs to win over to get over the hump. And I think that there's a lot of room for growth. I think there's a lot of room for growth. You know, about whether he's too close to Hassan Piker, whether he's not distancing himself enough and they're fighting back and forth. And, you know, he was on Jesse Waters this week, kind of like arguing about, you know, trans youth gender reassignment surgery. I'm not sure how helpful that is. So, you know, there can be a little bit of a more of an eye on the ball in some of these races. What happens if Texas turns for Tallarico, right? The latest polling out of Texas, we weren't able to get to it yesterday because of Dolly Parton's death, shows Tallarico, Tim, ahead of Paxton by like four points. I think it's really winnable. You know, look, people talk about that Beto race. They're like, oh, you know, this is always the white whale. Democrats can't win it. But Beto never was leading a single poll against Ted Cruz. He just had a lot of hype. And Beto, right? He lost by three points. I know some viewers will struggle to believe this, but Ted Cruz's popularity at that time with Republican voters in Texas was pretty high. You know, he just lost the primary to Trump, but he finished in second place in that primary. This is a totally different situation. Trump's way more unpopular. Ken Paxton is way more unpopular than Ted Cruz, and he was impeached by his own party. And Tallarico's running a very strong race. I think it's very winnable, but it's going to be tough, like Ashley said. And like, these are the places in the Senate they've got to win in either Texas, Iowa, Alaska, you know, these places that are pretty darn red. Kansas, they've got a good candidate in Kansas, Reverend Pastor Adam Hamilton. Those are the places they've got to win. But I think Texas is doable. I don't think that's out of pocket at all.