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Supreme Court Takes on Your 401(k): The Intel Private Funds Case Explained

44m 29s

Supreme Court Takes on Your 401(k): The Intel Private Funds Case Explained

Invest Talk highlights a volatile but structured market in October 2026, marked by a sharp rotation from AI-driven tech stocks to defensive sectors like financials and consumer staples. While names like GE Aerospace show strong earnings growth, their high valuations signal potential overexposure. A key legal issue involving private equity funds in 401(k)s raises questions about fiduciary duty and advisor conflicts, urging investors to scrutinize fund selection and benchmarking. Central bank gold purchases, driven by geopolitical instability, point to long-term demand for safe-haven assets, with China’s central bank increasing its gold reserves to 9%. Energy markets remain strong, with oil prices rising for seven consecutive days despite economic slowdowns, highlighting continued global supply concerns. Major energy firms report record profits, creating questions about future capital allocation and energy pricing. The upcoming midterms add political risk, while investor questions on Roth conversions, spin-offs (like Thermo Management), and lending programs underscore the need for personalized strategies. The show emphasizes that while traditional assets like Philip Morris International continue to deliver strong, consistent returns, investors must remain vigilant about valuation, risk, and structural changes in retirement planning—especially with evolving 401(k) rules and market volatility. The upcoming in-person Retirement Summit in Irvine is highlighted as a valuable opportunity for hands-on financial planning, with limited seating. Ultimately, Invest Talk reinforces the importance of diversification, risk management, and proactive portfolio adjustments in navigating complex, interconnected global markets.

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This is Invest Talk. From KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host Justin Klein. Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk. This is our Friday, October 16th, 2026 edition of Invest Talk. We're excited for this hour to close the week. I know we didn't have a few shows earlier this week. Like I said yesterday, there were some pickups in our production and traveling and you know life happens. So I had to take a few days off, but we are back. So don't worry, we'll be here consistently. And we are here to answer your finance and investment questions. We're here too. As usual, help you take that next step in your financial journey so that you can capitalize opportunities and avoid the risks that pitfalls in today's market. That's what you saw today. If you were positioned accordingly, you probably have no K-Day. If you were positioned poorly, you probably saw a lot of red in the screen. So it was a very, very bifurcated market. So we'll talk about that a little bit more, but this is an example of why you need to stay on top of these things and adjust your portfolio so that you can outperform. So you can take the appropriate amount of risk and take smart risk, not just any type of risk, but smart risk, especially in this market where geopolitics are playing a huge factor here, as well as how that's feeding into the cost of capital and then how that feeds into markets with bond markets as well as equity markets. So that's what we're going to look at today and much, much more. Once again, we're going to answer your finance and investment questions. So we are here for all of it during the next hour, but a quick heads up are all new in-person invest talk retirement summit. It's just eight days away. This is a complimentary event will happen in Irvine, California on Saturday, October 24th. That is one week from tomorrow. You are invited if you're in the area, if you live in the area, if you plan to be in the area, next weekend, it's going to be a great event. We have some experts covering tax strategy, estate planning, real estate, looks for the cover investment strategy. I'm going to cover broader financial planning and how it's all put together. We'll do a Q&A session for all of us. So anything that's on your mind, you want to ask about, we can cover that. And once again, it's next weekend. It's free of charge, but seating is limited. We have a hand full of spots left. I just talked to you, Shelby, our marketing director earlier today. And she gave me an updated number. So seating is very limited. So if you're going to register, you want to do that sooner rather than later before you are wait. Listen, because once it fills up, we're going to start a wait list. So you can register now over at kppfinancial.com or vesttalk.com. So head over there now. And just a bit, we'll talk about today's mark performance. We'll run down the show topics. But first, let's tackle this color question now. Hello, this is Paul from San Diego. And I am holding currently GE Aero Space symbol GE. And I was going to continue to hold it for the long term. I just wanted to see what you thought about that. Okay, thanks a lot. Looking at GE Aero Space. This is a name that has done fairly well. Let me go zoom out to a weekly chart here. Yeah, it's low back in 2022 was around $40 per share. Now we're at $313 per share. Why is that? It's because earnings has earnings have gradually gone up. You had, let's see, Q3 of last year, mid $1.13, Q2 of this year, mid $1.06. Excuse me. And it continues to go up both on a revenue basis and an earnings basis. So the growth is very good. Ernie's for share growth the year of a year expected this year to be 21%. It's been kind of the mid to mid 20s for the last few quarters. But it is a deceleration from 81% in Q1 of last year. So there's some growth to celebration. It's trading at a pretty hefty multiple 36 times forward looking earnings. And it probably is valued even around 27. That's near the high end of its range, even though it's pulled back. So to me, it's a bit expensive. I don't love it here at these levels. The momentum is certainly slowed. And so I would be a seller of the name. I do think the business is good, but it's just too expensive based on its growth trajectory, which is certainly slowing. So I'm passing on GE. Now with a great show yesterday, we looked into this story, our REITs a buyer sell when it interest rates rise. Cover that topic as well as answer listener questions on Texas specific land and much, much more. And if you happen to miss it, go check it out. Best way to get every show is to follow and best talk wherever you get your podcast. Now we have a lot of ground to cover. Oh, the 45, the next 45 minutes or so in time for many will get to all of it. Our main focus point is about a Supreme Court ruling that could have a major impact on your 401k. And that is whether private equity, private credit hedge funds, these private investments can be put inside a 401k or should be put inside a 401k. The outcome could reshape how millions of Americans retirement assets are managed and what investment options you can access. So we're going to dig into that story. In addition, we're going to touch other topics. One is gold, gold demand from central banks. In September was in the high at the highest level in almost two years. So we're going to look at that story and what that means for the gold market. And then oil companies while you and I are paying a lot more at the pump, but the grocery store pretty much throughout our economy because of the war in the Middle East. Big oil companies are earning a ton of money. Earning season is kicking off this week, kicked off this week, and we'll get more in the coming weeks. But in the first half of this year, profits from names like Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Total BP, they're about 75% year over year from the same from the same period last year. And free cash flows nearly doubled. So the number they have is what do you do with this money? Do you buy back shares? Do you pay a dividend? Do you go reinvest in new supply? What do you do with this money? And this could have a large impact on the ultimate price of energy. And hopefully much, much more and much, much more is answering your finance and investment questions. We do a backlog of questions. We're going to get to as many as we can today. We have one on the delities fully paid lending program. And then Philip Morris International PM. And then we have some questions that came in via the comment section on the Invest Talk YouTube channel. But we're going to do a quick break. Please remember you can call it anytime and leave your question on the Invest Talk voice bank. And if you're listening, be out of live stream on it on vesttalk.com or possibly an AM 1220 in the Bay Area. You can call right now at 888 99 chart. Next, I will comment on today's market activity. The Invest Talk phone lines never close. And now Justin Klein is here taking your calls live. Invest talk 888 99 chart. 899 chart 899 924278. So I get through and ask your question on today's show. Let's go take a look at the market today. It was overall a down day. You had the Russell 2000 down about one and two thirds percent. The Nasdaq down a little over 2%. The S&P down a little over 1%. The Dow was only down about three or about 1/3 of 1%. So just a modest sell off there. Because you actually had strength in financials, names like JP Morgan, up nearly 2% on the day, same with city. Oh, American Express up about one, well, spark up one and a half. So there's a lot of banks and a lot of financials that were strong. But it was anything surrounding the AI trade that was weak. Apple was strong up 1% because they're not deploying billions and billions and tens of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure. But guess who is names like Amazon down about half percent on the day, Microsoft down 1.8 go with at 1.4, meta down to an a quarter on the day, and all that feeds into those that are benefiting Oracle down three and three quarters. They're kind of a better version of core weave, but core weave is having problems. So just because they're a little better than core weave, doesn't mean they aren't going to have their own problems with the amount of money they're spending on data infrastructure. And then that's feeding into names like Palantir down 6% on the day, crowd strike down 7% palette and networks down 7%. Micron down 3.7, Broadcron down 2.6. So that's really where the red in the market was concentrated. Like I said, financials are good. Even health care stocks, you got a lily of 1% Johnson, Johnson up 1 and a half. Then you go into Durables, Coke, Procter and Gamble, Philip Morris, Pepsi, all nicely positive on the day. Even the utility stocks were strong with Duke Energy Up 1.8 and the like. So there was a lot of strength there, even the retail trade outside of Amazon, which obviously is actually more of a tech name, Walmart and Costco were up. So this wasn't overall a bad market, just continued rotation out of tech and into the harder, the more traditional companies. Not the most exciting names, but names that aren't as levered to the AI buildup. So that's kind of the trend in the markets today. You had treasuries that were a bit stronger. You had yields down two to four basis points on the short end, which tells you that the market is going to get weaker, which is happening right now, that there's less pressure on the Fed to raise rates. And so shorter term rates may be coming in. I could easily see only one more rate hike from the Fed before something breaks enough to give them pause. Let's just say that. And you're starting to see things break like core weave. Dollar next down point three percent on the day, we'll finish up point three silver up point three as well, Bitcoin down one point two. A lot of correlation there with big tech and Bitcoin, because guess what, a lot of people own Bitcoin as well as a lot of tech names. And so in tech struggles, it tends to deliver on the Bitcoin space as well. WTI crude up 2.6% the second, sorry, seventh consecutive daily gain for oil. So oil prices continue to go up despite what looks to be a slowing global economy. Let's see, Kevin Worsh spoke at the IMF, no really hints at a decision. So that didn't really, I think, change much on that side. Let's see what else. Yeah, there's still talk about Anthropic IPO, all of that. But that's about it. Yeah, interesting way to close the week. We had OpX week. This often is a time of shifts in the market. So do we get the market freed up after OpX next week to sell off further? I think that's certainly possible. We also are in the midst of earnings season. And then we are knocking on the door here of the midterms. What are we two weeks from Tuesday? So two, check my calendar. Yeah, isn't it November 3rd? Yeah, so two weeks from Tuesday. So about two and a half weeks away from the midterms. What happens after the midterms? Are those results contested? I think that is an underappreciated risk in markets. So entering interesting times as we head into the final quarter of the year. Now, for time and time, we receive questions via web form over at besttalk.com. And let's go answer one of those now. It says, should we start thinking about picking up stocks like win, resorts, or loss, Vegas, Sands? Well, first off, anything related to Las Vegas? I would say no. But these are names that are actually more tied to Macao these days. So yes, you might know of the win in Las Vegas. But the win, Macao, is a much bigger driver of their business. Should pull this up. I have a lot of different systems here. If we go to-- so here's a geography by revenue. Yeah, Macao is 52% of win resorts. Revenue 47% and 48% is in the United States. So this is in a downtrend. I don't really see a reason to get into these names, both cyclically, as well as the competition from your polymarkets of the world. I just don't really see a compelling case to be picking up these names. I don't think they're necessarily cheap. They have decent debt in their balance sheet. Very levered to both the United States and the Chinese economy, which obviously from a geopolitical standpoint, becomes an issue. So no, I see no reason to be adding these to your portfolio. This is the best stock. If you've never called, I want to do it now. Give me a call now at 8-8. Now you know, in chart. [MUSIC PLAYING] As retirement gets closer, the questions often become more complicated. How much can you afford to spend? From where should you get your income? How should your portfolio change? This isn't a game. It's your life. KPP financial helps investors work through important decisions before retirement begins. So learn more, request a conversation, or get a free portfolio review. You can start now at investtalk.com. [MUSIC PLAYING] Those recent report from the World Gold Council, and it showed that in September, central banks bought the most gold since November of 2024, about 63 tons. And this is coming after a financial times precious metals symposium. This is on Wednesday, where they really checked in on investors within the space, central banks, et cetera. And the moral of the story is that the trends from basically since the Ukraine war on in the gold space have not really changed. There continues to be overall buying. Yes, there has been some pressure this year, especially after-- and this is underappreciated-- after the invasion of Iran, where a lot of those countries in the central-- in the Middle East-- excuse me-- needed money. They needed capital because they couldn't sell their oil. So what do they do? They sold gold. They sold some of the reserves. And that's one of the reasons why you saw oil-- or that oil gold-- kind of peak-- wanted to peak, yeah. Peak to right at the end of February. It was right around the start of the invasion. And then it fell about-- let's see, I'm looking at GLD. It went from 490, all the way down to 400. I went down 15, 20% in the span of a couple weeks. And since then, it's been kind of shopping sideways to down. But considering higher interest rates, considering its robber dollar, it's held up very, very well, kind of what I talked about yesterday. But the point here is that central banks are going to continue to weaponize the dollar. That's what happened during the Russia-Ukraine War. It's what's likely to continue to happen going forward. And so why will the rest of the world use gold? Excuse me, we use the dollar when they can go and buy a neutral reserve asset like gold. Then you look at our fiscal situation. We're running a 7% deficit GDP ratio. And that is in a non-recessionary environment. What happens when maybe prices of homes stagnate? So you have less capital gains taxes for people that sell their homes or their stocks, for example. What happens to the deficit then? So people are losing faith in kind of all fee occurrences. So people are asking themselves, how do they protect the value of their currency? Again, this inflationary backdrop. And that's why central banks continue to get inspired. And consumers are increasingly in countries all around the world turning to gold as that neutral reserve asset. The people's bank of China added to its gold reserves in the past few months, increasing their percentage, total percentage of their reserves to 9% is now in gold bullion. So they're the second-largest, second-most important central bank in the world next to the Federal Reserve. But it's pretty clear, to me, to needs to be, that this is not just a short-term trend. This is long-term. Yes, there's ebbs and flows, but overall, it's not a shock that what a gold really bottoms late 2022, and has been rallying very strong ever since. Now let's pivot over and answer a voicemail question now. Hey, guys, great show. Calling in with a Roth conversion question, I'm trying to convert part of my traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. I am currently 60. So I was calling to find out about the five-year rule. And it sounds like there's a 10% penalty. If you leave the money in there less than five years, but I also read that possibly, if you're over 55 and a half, you get 10% penalty dozens coming to play. I'm wondering if you could just clarify that for me. I appreciate your time. Thank you. Have a good day. Yeah, it doesn't apply over 59 and a half, I believe. So yeah, I mean, if you are, I think, worried about taking-- remember, you can take the money out of the five-year rule. You can take the money out after that. But after 59 and a half, that doesn't apply. So it's 59 and a half. It's not 55. It's 59 and a half that five-year no longer applies. So you can convert your Roth and take the principal out at any-- well, you can take it out at any time, because it's-- yeah, over 55 and a half. So yeah, it's 59 and a half where that five-year rule doesn't apply. But for everyone else out there, this is a-- you think he said he was 60? So yeah, he doesn't have to worry about the five-year rule. But everyone else out there, it's very important to something we're going to talk about next Saturday, which is the Roth conversion question is so tied in to your entire financial picture, especially as you get to your 60s, how much income you are making, how long are you going to work for, what is your RMD going to be, the size of those accounts, how they're invested, what the value will likely be in 10, 15 years. This guy of the 60 now, what is that, a likely amount of your IRA, if you keep it in there, you don't do a conversion in, you know, 13 years. So these are all factors we're going to dig into and it can be complex, but you have the right software, you have the right setup, you can answer that. All right, we're going to head into a break right for your calls now at 8-8-9-9 chart. At KPP Financial, accountability means more than advice, it means we invest alongside you, through our parallel investing approach, when we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time, same day, same price, same percentage. If your portfolio moves, ours does too, that is alignment, that is transparency, that is the KPP difference. Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review. The Invest Talk Retirement Summit is coming to Irvine, California on Saturday, October 24th. For an exclusive in-person event, it will focus on five key decisions that can shape your financial future. Attendance is complimentary, and seating is limited. Reserve your place now at investtalk.com. 8-8-9-9-9-9-9-2-4-7-8. As I get through and ask your question on today's show. Our main focus point today is about the Supreme Court's decision on potentially your 401K. It's a lawsuit brought by a former Intel producer, Jim Maker, that sued when they added private funds, private equity, and hedge funds into the plan. How they ruled could have a large impact on your 401K plan and what goes in your 401K. The plaintiff accused the company of violating its fiduciary duty by including private equity and hedge funds in its defined contribution plan, which basically they're 401K. Now this is something you can do to your employer at any time. If you think your funds, the funds that are picked for you are in there for any reason beyond that is in your best interest, you have the right to sue your employer. Those that are in charge of the 401K have a fiduciary duty to act in your best interest. That's first thing you need to know. Doesn't mean you have a case, but know that you have that possibility. With this lawsuit alleges that the investments performed worse than standard equity funds would have. Now the answer to that is, of course, they did probably, mainly because usually these are not good investments, but that's not really good reason. That's the argument here is that that's not really a good reason to say that they breached their fiduciary duty. Just because something underperformed over a period of time doesn't necessarily mean that it was put in there by ill reasons, right? Reasons that are, we're not in their best interest. For example, I use a foreign stock. So if foreign stocks were underperforming for a decade up until the end of 2024, and since then, they have started out perform. Now, in 2024, if you were ahead of a 401K, you may say, "Well, I don't think we really need much foreign exposure. They haven't done very well." That's their rationale. They don't know much about the investment world or how these things kind of flow in cycles. They may just exclude that. Now they also might exclude it because they want to put in funds where they get some sort of commission or a kickback or some sort of perks. That's where I think things get murky. That happens a lot with the advisors on 401K plans. They get some sort of, once again, commissions or kickbacks from either a fund family or a particular fund that might be in or funds that are in the in the plan. That's really the issue that I see more often than not. I do think that more plans should include more options, but private equity and private credit and hedge funds typically are pretty illiquid. You see that now with what's going on in the insurance industry and what's going on with just being able to liquidate a lot of these positions. If you hold them, if you were sold them, I'm sure hundreds, not thousands of you out there are holding these type of names that just can't be sold. In a 401K, people need their money. If they take a loan out, they need to liquidate some assets or maybe they just retire and now they want to go invested in something else. This lawsuit isn't just about these private equity funds and whether they are underperformed or not because you really, it's about how do you benchmark these things or do you benchmark a private equity fund against the S&P? That really because you're investing in small and mid cap names, so it's more against the Russell 2000. Those things are very hard to parse out. Private credit fund is it against the total bond market? Probably not, because that has treasureies in it. It's probably more a high yield bond fund. Once again, those are difficult to benchmark. That's not really, I think the story of this lawsuit, the actual things they should be focusing on once again are the conflicts within that industry, which are numerous and very common. That's what I would ask if you have a 401K, you should be talking to your HR department, you should be talking to your CFO or whoever is put in charge of picking the funds ultimately signing off on the plan, who has the fiduciary duty and ultimately has the risk to be sued by the employees. So I don't, ultimately, I don't think it's a good idea to have any of these alternative assets, but at least it's not a good idea for the average investor, average 401K participant, but it's good for the industry because they want more dollars, they want more dollars that are sticky. Just like BlackRock loves the fact that you are in a S&P-linked fund or a targeted fund because they make money off of that. That's one of the reasons why BlackRock is so large, because you're a 401K, your RoboAdvisor is just putting money into the indexes. And so they want to replicate that in the private funds, but ultimately, I don't think it's great for the investor. Now let's keep things moving and play another listener question now. Hi, don't get here from New York. Thank you for all that you do. I'm looking at enrolling in Fidelity's fully paid lending program for my taxable brokerage account. It's basically a program at Fidelity where people can loan your stocks and you get some money off of it. I meet the $25,000 account minimum, but I want to make sure the incremental yield is worth the tradeoffs in a taxable environment. My main goal is earning extra yield, but since this is a standard taxable brokerage account, I know my dividends could be converted into payments in lieu of dividends. I don't really have that many dividend stocks in my portfolio anyways, but I want to avoid accidentally increasing my tax burden or taking on unaccounted risk. Disappointential tax increase from receiving ordinary income by a cash in lieu payments outweigh the lending yield for dividend-paying stocks shares on loan, lose SIPC protection and are instead backed by Fidelity's collateral. Is counterparty risk something a retail investor should realist think you worry about with a major brokerage like Fidelity? And my final question is, is this program best suited for only for non-dividend growth stocks or is there a smart way to manage your across the portfolio? Just looking to make some extra money. My money is growing. I'm hoping and I read somewhere that like all these rich people make more money by not the actual income that they make, but actual like taking loans based on their portfolios that they have. Thank you very much. Bye. Well, you kind of called out a lot of the drawbacks there. No SIPC insurance coverage on these assets, Fidelity defaults. I don't think it's going to happen. We use Fidelity as a broker. We don't do. We don't opt into this. The paid lending program, but I can see it being attractive, especially if you're going to hold onto these names for a long period of time. Now, we have to remember, too, is the, there's some there's some advertised rates. I think they say up to 27% on certain stocks that you can earn, especially stocks that may be hard to borrow. Now, probably the reason the hard to borrow is because they're probably not great companies to be honest with you. So I'd be worried about holding those picker names anyway. Most of the good names that aren't often short shorted, and that's why they're doing this. They're trying to get access to shares that could be lent out. Those, those you're not going to earn much on typically. So it varies a lot. And so what's the upside with the actual yield you're going to get by opting into this for your entire portfolio. If it's a lot, actually, it's kind of a red flag for your portfolio. So there's a trade off there. Like you said, the dividends or tax that your ordinary income tax rate, so it depends on what is your is it high or not? If it's low, then there's probably not much drawback on that side. You also don't get voting rights on these, probably doesn't matter for you if you're a small investor with not much impact on the overall, the voting of shareholders, etc. So yeah, I think there are some drawbacks not enough for me to say opt out of it completely, but it does depend on what that yield is. What else? IRAs are eligible, so I think that kind of helps if on the dividend side, because whether it's in an IRA, if it's tax rate or not, it doesn't really matter because it's the only tax when you take the money out. So I think there's a little more upside of doing this within an IRA, but I think that covered it overall, not a terrible idea, but kind of depends on what type of account it is and what your tax rate is. Now as we close up the week, being it Friday, we'd like to check in on some of the major benchmark numbers for the week, and the two year yield was at 4.7% two weeks ago is at 4.83%, so down a little bit this week as the market overall weakened and the odds of a rate hike in October, later this month, diminished think we're at, let's see if we have that here, although there you go, 82% chance that there's no rate hike on the 28th, so we're coming up on only 12 days away, it's amazing how fast these fed meetings come up, and then the next fed meeting will be on December 9th, the final one for the year, there's a decent chance, 70, about 79% chance, there's at least one rate hike by year end, so overall that's probably what we're getting, the market started to price that in this week, the 10-year treasury, you do go down to 5.08, a couple of weeks ago is at 5.28%, so the mortgage rates are probably going to come in, we were right on 7.5%, it's probably closer to 7.25, right now, let's see, the mortgage is daily, you have the 30-year treasury rate on mortgage news daily, and a treasury rate, mortgage rate, 30-year mortgage rate, 7.37 actually, so it didn't come down that much despite the 10-year coming down, gold at 41.65, and 18-dollar increase compared to a couple weeks ago, so it's hanging in there, and certainly bounced back a little bit this week, silver, 57.04, now, so that's a $3.55 decrease compared to a couple weeks ago, so that's been certainly weaker than gold overall, oil, we're back about $100 a barrel, 101.50, it's a $10 in change increase from just 2 weeks ago, so like I said, 7 straight trading days of oil going up, and that is fed into gasoline prices, $4.32 a gallon, down still a couple of cents from a couple weeks ago, but still well above that $4 mark, which is kind of the area where people complain, and certainly it doesn't bode well for whatever administration is in the White House, when you have a gasoline about $4.00 gallon on national average, that doesn't bode well for the midterms coming up, California, $6.21 per gallon, so obviously we're always much, much higher, but strong premium continuing from the national average, especially versus Wyoming, gas is at $4.49 a gallon today, let's lip in another question from A to date, 99 chart. Hello, Justin and Luke, long time listener to your gauge show, I'm Matt from Minneapolis, I have a quick question for you guys, looking of course always to diversify my portfolio, I think you guys possibly have this stock in one of your portfolios, ticker symbol is PM, the Philip Morris company, I know it still does a good job of growing, it's done a good job this year so far, and I believe it still pays a good dividend, I was wondering if you guys would even be more positive about this stock, because I heard they just joined with Altria now, so the two big tobacco companies are one or something, does that make them even a powerful company and one that's better to have in the future, look forward to hearing your answer on the show, thank you, have a great day. I have seen no news about Altria and Philip Morris joining up, in fact it's actually the opposite, Philip Morris is a spin off, they separated some years back, basically PM Philip Morris is Phil Morris International, they are basically the cigarette business of Phil Morris outside of the United States, Altria was spun off and it was the domestic side, you growth of cigarette usage around the world and obviously here in the United States cigarette usage has been declining for a number of decades, so no they're not the same company, now Philip Morris has a lead in smokeless tobacco and that's why they've been growing stronger and that's why this stock performance has been very good, it's been one of our biggest and most consistent holdings for a number of years now, I'd say at least three years, five years, it's been a long time, we love the business, and you can just look at it in total return this year, it's up 30.76% total return last year, 37.96%, you're before that 33 0.56% in 2023, it was down 2%, so even in a bad year it was a very minor downturn, and in a year when the market was really bad in 2022 it was up 11.84%, so you can see it's a consistent total return performer, we're big fans of it, five year return is over 18% annualized, so yeah, we're big fans of it, and this is a good lesson to everyone out there around, it's not just about demand, everyone needs to focus on demand and supply, this is most commonly discussed in regards to the commodity industry, but this can be any industry, and the cigarette industry is a perfect example of this, any taboo kind of industry, maybe a boring industry, an industry that is viewed as old and stodgy, nobody wants to get into, right? How many new cigarette companies have you seen launched in the past 20 years? Probably zero, right? So it's a spited industry where profits are very, very high, profit margins are very high, and the user base is sticky, so you think it's a good business, but nobody wants to get into it, so that leaves the filth morse of the world and the altruism of the world to continue to raise prices, to keep margins very high, return to invested capital for filth morse, it's 27%, they've invested in smokeless tobacco, and they've had the cash flow to do that, they buy back shares, they pay a dividend, right on 3%, they're able to raise that dividend over time, so wonderful business, no matter how you feel about cigarettes or smokeless tobacco or whatever, this is a great business and a great performance company, and we continue to own it. Now this is Invest Talk, I'm Justin Klein, we have one goal here each and every week days to help you achieve your own version of financial freedom, and it will work in continues after this final breaks, good questions, and right now at 8.99. The weekend is here, or almost here, but you've got finance and investment questions, so step up and call in, Invest Talk, 888.99 chart, Hey Invest Talk, just a quick question about a stock that popped up in my portfolio, it is THRM Gen Therm Inc, I never bought it, I'm not sure why it popped up or how it popped up, maybe you guys can look into that for me, thank you, bye. THRM, oh okay, is this, do you own Modine, that would be my question, because it looks like, yeah it's spun it off, it goes in, late July, it looks like, yeah so if you owned Modine, this was spun off, it looks like from Modine, and Modine is in the AI space as well, Thermo, this is around Thermo Management, I would imagine, Thermo Management Solutions, I think this is a name that is less tied to AI, it's more around, it looks like Medical Thermal Management, it's always hard to analyze these on the fly sometimes, especially smaller names, yeah it's Automotive Climate and Comfort Systems, Cable Technology, Battery Performance Solutions, Valve Systems, and Medical Segment as well, so, and if you look at the performance of the business, it's been kind of on a downtrend as of late, it's where the stock is falling from, I have 48 all the way to 29, and also, here's something else, this is a lesson for everyone around spin-offs, usually spin-offs underperform in the first year, and actually, there are a lot of potential good investments, good opportunities in these spin-offs, why do they end up performing, well, because just this is a perfect example, what happens, you own a name, maybe you don't pay too much attention to these names, and then one spins it off. And it's a name you've never heard of. It sits in in your portfolio, you don't really understand what it does. You probably, it's probably a kind of a non-core business that maybe it doesn't, it's not attractive to the average shareholder and they just spin it off. And what do you do with it? Something you don't understand or didn't want to buy in the first place where you just sell it. And so they tend to, underperform, tends to be in a downtrend. Until all of those people kind of shed the shares that know nothing about the business. Doesn't mean it's a bad business, just maybe a business that isn't that exciting. And then eventually those weekends are gone and now it's able to kind of trade freely and under less downward pressure. And so this is, not a shock, this is gone from a high of 46 after the spin-off to 29 now. Now it doesn't mean I would probably own it near term 'cause it is very weak and will probably continue to perform for a period of time. But this is the type of name that I'd have in my watch list to see when all the sellers are gone. There's much capitulation and nobody wants to own it anymore. And if the business is still solid underneath the surface, then you might want to pick it up. But don't expect it to perform well over this short term. Well, that about does it. I think we are tapped out for today. Appreciate you all, appreciate you all tuning. And I want to just highlight once again our retirement summit coming up. I'm excited for it. So I did see some of you who I haven't seen in person for a number of years now. We're back and we do a lot of webinars, but it's always good to meet face-to-face and answer your questions. We love answering your questions, hearing your voice mails, answering questions that are submitted to YouTube or our website or whatever. But in person, there's that back and forth and that dynamic just can't be replicated. And so we're excited to help all of you kind of unpack some really important topics and put it all together in a plan how to think about it as a broader plan. So I'm excited for that. And if you want to register once again, only a handful of spots left before we start a wait list. So if you're going to register, head over to investtalk.com right now. I'm Justin Klein, reminding of K-P financials parallel investing when we make a trade for our clients, make the same trade for ourselves. Same day, same percentage, same price. No friend running, no special treatment invests. We invest right alongside our clients. We share the same risk and potential for success. And you can learn more by heading over to investtalk.com. And please, take your friends and family about our free podcast downloads, which you or they can find anytime at iTunes or Spotify and be sure to rate and review at iTunes as well. We appreciate that. Independent thinking, shared success. It's Invest Talk. Enjoy your weekend. (upbeat music) Invest Talk is a trademark of KPP financial. Because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program, it's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them. Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be investment advice. Or shall statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security? Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing. Invest Talk is a copyrighted program of client, pavly, and peacefully financial, a registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights. For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461. Thank you for listening. And your comments and questions are welcome on our 24-hour listener line at 888-99-Chart. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The market showed a bifurcated performance, with financials and consumer staples outperforming while AI-heavy tech stocks declined sharply, reflecting shifting investor sentiment.
  2. GE Aerospace is growing strongly in earnings but is now trading at a high valuation, making it potentially overpriced despite solid fundamentals.
  3. A Supreme Court case could redefine what private equity and hedge fund investments are allowed in 401(k)s, raising concerns about fiduciary duty, benchmarking, and advisor conflicts.
  4. Central banks, especially China’s, are increasing gold purchases due to geopolitical tensions and dollar instability, signaling long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
  5. Oil prices remain elevated due to Middle East conflicts, despite a weakening global economy, and major energy firms are reporting record profits.
  6. The U.S. is nearing midterms, which introduces political uncertainty and potential market volatility, affecting investor confidence and asset valuations.
  7. Fidelity’s fully paid lending program offers yield but comes with tax risks, lack of SIPC protection, and counterparty risk, making it less suitable for taxable accounts.
  8. Philip Morris International remains a strong, consistent performer due to sticky demand in smokeless tobacco, high margins, and shareholder returns—despite being in a traditional industry.

Summary:

Invest Talk highlights a volatile but structured market in October 2026, marked by a sharp rotation from AI-driven tech stocks to defensive sectors like financials and consumer staples. While names like GE Aerospace show strong earnings growth, their high valuations signal potential overexposure. A key legal issue involving private equity funds in 401(k)s raises questions about fiduciary duty and advisor conflicts, urging investors to scrutinize fund selection and benchmarking.

Central bank gold purchases, driven by geopolitical instability, point to long-term demand for safe-haven assets, with China’s central bank increasing its gold reserves to 9%. Energy markets remain strong, with oil prices rising for seven consecutive days despite economic slowdowns, highlighting continued global supply concerns. Major energy firms report record profits, creating questions about future capital allocation and energy pricing.

The upcoming midterms add political risk, while investor questions on Roth conversions, spin-offs (like Thermo Management), and lending programs underscore the need for personalized strategies. The show emphasizes that while traditional assets like Philip Morris International continue to deliver strong, consistent returns, investors must remain vigilant about valuation, risk, and structural changes in retirement planning—especially with evolving 401(k) rules and market volatility. The upcoming in-person Retirement Summit in Irvine is highlighted as a valuable opportunity for hands-on financial planning, with limited seating.

Ultimately, Invest Talk reinforces the importance of diversification, risk management, and proactive portfolio adjustments in navigating complex, interconnected global markets.

FAQs

GE Aerospace has strong earnings growth and a solid business, but it's currently trading at a high multiple of 36x forward earnings. Growth has slowed from 81% in Q1 2025 to around 21% this year, making it expensive. While the business is strong, the valuation suggests it may be overpriced, and a potential seller position is advised.

No, these stocks are not recommended. Over 50% of Win Resorts' revenue comes from Macau, not Las Vegas. The business is cyclically sensitive, leveraged to both U.S. and Chinese economies, and faces intense competition. These names lack a compelling investment case and are not well positioned for long-term growth.

The five-year rule applies only to Roth IRA conversions for those under 59 and a half. If you are 59 and a half or older, the five-year holding period does not apply, and you can withdraw converted amounts without a 10% penalty.

Yes, a potential ruling could impact 401(k) plans by questioning whether private equity or hedge funds are in a participant’s best interest. The lawsuit centers on fiduciary duty and conflicts of interest, such as advisor commissions. While underperformance isn’t a sufficient reason to breach duty, conflicts and illiquidity are key concerns.

The program offers high yields (up to 27%) but comes with risks: no SIPC protection, counterparty risk, and tax implications from receiving ordinary income. Dividend stocks on loan can increase tax burden. It’s only suitable if you have a low tax rate and are comfortable with the risks, especially in a taxable account.

Central banks are increasing gold purchases due to geopolitical instability, including the Iran conflict, which led to oil and gold price spikes. Gold is seen as a neutral reserve asset during economic uncertainty. This trend is long-term, with central banks like China increasing their gold holdings, signaling growing global demand for safe-haven assets.

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