Super Bowl Recap, Cardi B-gate & Insider Trading Galore | Ep 142

But when you have that information, you just get to like you're taking, you're like truly are taking money from people. Not that that has a bad implication, but it's truly like in sports, like you're getting like a 1% edge. And this stuff, like if you know, you know, Lady Gaga is going to perform the Super Bowl, you know, your sharp ratios, infinite, infinite. Like it's, it's, you know, that's just not, there's just a difference there. So what's up everybody, GP and SP with our our second Super Bowl show. I think everybody was excited about last week's Super Bowl prop, the NANSA that we had with Mr. Peanut Better. They said, wow, you covered so much Super Bowl ground. Certainly you can't do another Super Bowl at the Saturday. We're proving them wrong. Yeah, I mean, the haters might think this is our first Super Bowl show, but I guess we'll be fashionably late. No, I think I think we wanted to do this show. Again, we were going to go back to the topic we were going to originally do before we were going to do the the ETR discussion. But I think there was a lot of things that we were, we were sort of texting last night about the Super Bowl. And there was just a lot of interesting things. You know, we'll talk about like some of the probably more in the news stuff like the Cardi B situation and some of these other aspects. But I think there was there was aspects of just participating in the Super Bowl betting markets on the prediction markets and just the market as a whole, which I thought were interesting and worth, worth talking about. At least I found them interesting. So did you want to, did you want to start with like your experience? Yeah. Super Bowl betting and then I could maybe talk a little bit about mine. Yeah. So there's kind of two two parts of the Super Bowl betting that I want to talk about. First is just the standard kind of prop stuff that we'll do. So we like to get in there, especially for like live props. And I knew like coming out of the waste management things were going to be on a tight schedule of like settling and whatnot. So we basically like set ourselves up with what I thought was like one quarter worth of cash. And then hope the waste management settles. And launched everything. And it was just like a flurry like I've never seen in my life. Like I didn't even I felt like I hadn't even hit enter and the command terminal and like the props were all blue with numbers next to them. Like no, no, no, no, no, it was just like I couldn't believe it. I couldn't believe it. It was in insane, insane amount of volume. More than I thought, obviously ran out of cash, had to beg to get the top 20 and 10 markets settled. And you know, it was a good good game for us, because we're, you know, do a lot of no props. So not not to unhappened, you know, the touchdowns were not to superstars. So faded, JSN faded. I mean, we fade everyone's. It's not like this was a read. This is just like we got lucky that JS Ending Score, Cuped in the score. Walker got one called back, which, you know, that I'm sure that a lot of people had certain feelings about that. Like Kenneth Walker garbage time TD, they got called back. He still got MVP. So happy for him that that still happened while we didn't lose our Walker anytime TD bet. But yeah, I mean, just just the insane difference between this and regular NFL game. Nobody was quite sensitive. Like it was just like, yeah, couldn't keep track of it. Like I basically just sat back and was like, well, I hope like everything we wrote was good because I certainly can't tell what's going on. Yeah, there's a couple of things you said in there, which I share that sentiment. So for me, a little bit different. I was so basically when the conference title games ended, I basically got up as much as I, I basically tried to post as many things as possible. So not just in the vein of like derivatives props and whatnot, not like the mainline stuff. But I tried to get into as many of the markets as possible. And I'll say credit to CalShi. Like obviously they didn't have nearly the menu as like any regular book, but they did have way more than like a usual game, like way, way more markets than a usual game. And so I tried to get like involved in as many as possible. So I was working basically, you know, first couple days of the week, you know, the first week of the before the by week, even. And one of the mistakes I may as interesting hearing you talk about it is, and this is something that I'm, I'm sussing out in like all the markets I'm participating. I'm curious if you have any thoughts of just like the anticipating actually, like, how much flow there's going to be and how competitive you need to be. This is a little bit what I was texting you about. I'm like, how competitive you need to be in in different markets. Because like looking back on it, I think I was definitely over aggressive in like getting orders early, like competing harder to the top of the queue that I needed to be. Because to your point, like it got to even Saturday for me, you know, the day before the game. And it was just like a continual stream of of bets. And you know, Sunday was was even more insane. And so all my stuff was probably I did a little bit in game. But primarily pregame stuff. And yeah, it was it was just the volume was crazy. The other things like that that were interesting to me. And this is some of other aspects I want to talk about is just the whole the this game was very interesting to me just because in general, there's there's like these general patterns that that people talk about the Super Bowl that I don't think were present in this year Super Bowl. So a couple like the most obvious one that's always talked about is this sort of like money line spread effect where you get this distortion of the implied money line doesn't equate to what the actual spread is. And usually like in this case, what like what I would have thought would have happened coming into this game would have been something like the the Seahawks money line would have been cheap relative to the spread because the people want to bet on the Patriots. They they want to they just end up betting on the money line. People want to bet on the the Seahawks they want to bet on the spread. And so you have you you have this like distortion that happens. This year, if anything, I would say it was the opposite. You know, at least based on like my me trying to value this stuff. And it permeated through like other derivatives and props and everything. And even on this super stream, you're on like I think ever did every single person give Seattle. I was going to say like I knew I was like, okay, I want to I went on because you have to give a side and then you have to give a prop. So I went on and I was like, yeah, I'm giving out see I yeah, I'm just going to give out Seattle. But I didn't know I'm not like a football guy. So I'm like, okay, I don't know what to give out like the the money line or the spread. So I'm in the waiting room in this really like smart guy went up. It was like, yeah, it's like if you look through the charts, like the spread super undervalued compared to the money line like or it's much better value than the money line. So that just went on and gave out the spread because he said so. But yeah, that's what he was saying. And Jack was saying like on the unabated tool, it was like you would convert the spread to like like a minus 208 money line or something like that. And like the best number you could get was minus 220 at circle. And you know, the average my land was like minus 230 minus 235. So that's pretty crazy. It was it was very strange to me just because again, like it's not only like was at you know, it wasn't even not at the normal sort of distortion like to normal. It like went the opposite direction and was actually distorted in the other direction. I think again, at least according to my stuff, it sounds like according to what you know, the unabated guys who would ever sang too. So that was really interesting. And like I said, what that caused, you know, for me, was I ended up being on this like in general, I would say, you know, it is hard. Like you said, you sort of just like let it run and hope it turns out for the best. That's a little bit what I was. Like come Sunday morning, I was trying to like worst case scenario some some stuff and see like right. This is really V today. But like net net, I was definitely like on the patriots and on the under like collectively, I would say we're my heavy position. So like if you would have told me that Seattle won every single quarter and scored where they scored 29 points or whatever, I would be like I don't think I would be like I'd be recording this from under a bridge today. So thankfully somehow it actually ended up not being too bad because I was I was on a lot of other route. Like other stuff that didn't hit like various like yeah besides the fourth quarter I each quarter had to have gone under yeah for sure so quarters were under and a lot of like the weird stuff like like no I was quite heavy on like no three passers or whatever it was on Calisheat that was pretty heavy on that I was there was time like time of first touchdown stuff that was good because I had with first touchdown was like deep into the third quarter. Yeah it's the same time first touchdown actually that was something that that was annoying was we decided to do some first touchdown pregame assuming it would settle so Calisheat doesn't settle first touchdown they like require full cash for that market for I don't know who I would but so we have this like first touchdown position where we can't lose and I'm just assuming that's all gonna get unlocked in the first quarter so like it takes so long so we're waiting on waste management I've no one's quarter touchdown I'm sitting here like like just like being happy knowing scoring but like there is a part of me that's like damn we could have baby plant this a little better maybe not I don't know yeah so like you said overall I would say it was it was pretty solid but you know considering like the game script the defensive touchdown was extremely costly for me for a variety of reasons but you know that's just how it goes so yeah I guess the point I was bringing up with it there was just a lot of aspects of the game that was seem weird like I said the spread and money line didn't make sense to me I'm open to smarter people telling me what was going on there. Well so I think it's sort of related to this other thing is that and neither of them like I don't have a full working theory but it also seems odd to me like the amount of smart people who bet a lot of money and have opinions and whatnot who came onto that stream and everybody was on Seattle and the other part that doesn't really jive with me like I don't get I didn't get the sense that like the public was on the Patriots I could be wrong on that but like I didn't get that sense and so it also seemed odd to me that like how steady the line was overall like the line was basically posted after the conference title games and and was effectively the line the whole time obviously that's not unusual for the Super Bowl like they have a good line but I just with the amount of action and like because me I took extremely one-sided action and you know you can you obviously can't profile super great on Cal State but you can sort of profile based on like bet size and other factors and whatnot and you know my impression was I got very like recreational flow on on Seattle that could just be like a skill issue on my part taking the wrong side but you know but I got you know like I said like recreational flow on the over which I think everybody would sort of assume like over base props and things to happen so it's hard to make I don't really have a theory I just wanted to talk about it because it was it was interesting to me it's obviously the first time like being in the like booking bets seat of the Super Bowl and it was you know this one at least to me it is probably so I guess what I say is this is probably the most like involved in like paying attention I've ever been I've bet Super Bowl props before but like not at this scale or volume or anything it's really interesting to me the dynamics of this Super Bowl and how it how it played out and that's obviously one game but I'm just like the market dynamics we're really interesting to me yeah I was thinking because you told me that you were like wow I'm getting all the Seattle action and then I thought I was like yeah looking at the stream I was like so who's betting on the Patriots like what's going on like it is very odd because you're like what what's like how is this possible yeah I mean I was getting I was getting Seattle action at at prices worst like like prices for me better than what the people could get at fandall draft kings with right so it wasn't even like I don't feel like on some of the things I'm probably out a little off market and like I have an opinion on uncertain of the props but you know in general I thought I was pretty pretty on market and yeah it was just one way action from to me from smart people and like I didn't hear anybody and maybe it's just my bubble but like my casual friends all thought like Seattle was gonna stomp them my smart like all the smart people all thought Seattle's gonna stomp so I don't and then you have like you know I start to read much out of like who's circa needs because they're but they're like they're so different I was pretty busy today so I didn't get to read like much about it and some usually around this time there's like reports of like huge day for sports books or whatever not good my guess is in general is a pretty good day for sports books just because of the the under type stuff and how the game played out but I would surprise me I guess you like with the action I got if if they weren't overwhelmingly Seattle but I could be wrong and like I said it could just be a skill issue that we got to learn from now I feel it feels like they probably lost to the money lines for it I don't know maybe I mean maybe I guess like it's just like how much one sided how one sided is it have to be it offset the the vague so but yeah it was I mean look I gave out Seattle and I didn't I didn't bet aside because I also am like you can't bet a suitable side what are you insane like like I'm giving them out but like that's just you know it that's just like because I had to I was you know if they think I mean I remember when like some Billy Walters interview he was like like talked about how big of an edge he had made one super bowl I've no clue like maybe a super bowl is one of those spots where like the money line or the spread could be like actually value like actually like good value but I have no clue I can't really get into I'm not going to make a guess as to that but the other thing I want to talk about if if you want to move off kind of like the game as there's only one other there's only one other aspect of the actual game before we get to the the hard hitting Cardi Beasts okay that I'm doing something or I'll do something that that rolls into Cardi B that's partially in this segment partially Cardi B okay so the only other thing I was going to talk about that I think is interesting um and like I just think this is an interesting problem this is usually like not something we we talk about in this podcast but like the I or maybe it is like the idea of like what parts of the super bowl are distinct and different from a normal football game and what of that is like noise and what of that is it noise so like the the one you always get the one that I always hear talked about probably the most of anything is like stuff having to do with first quarter it's going to be low scoring or second half it's going to be higher scoring than first half and all of this because in the super bowl you definitely will see like price differences like I talked about how to sort of there's like a normal relationship between the this this spread and the money line there's obviously normal relationships um or at least you know somewhat normal relationships between first half second half first quarter to the full game like stuff like that the super bowl it definitely like in the market it gets distorted and it was really interesting to see um like different books and you know like my personal opinion on how much all that is worth because different books definitely had different opinions on on that stuff like how how much is that actually worth like how much because it's like the small dated problems we talked about or we talked about last week with with Mike if like there's there probably is almost certainly is something to like starting slow nervousness not wanting to blow the game in the first quarter but it's like a really interesting problem um and one with like an extremely high upside if you have like a correct opinion on it right because you could get like loads of money on on that opinion um and I don't think it's even like you know as I was saying about it like I think people who can continue to think about it like differently each year because like I think it's a big mistake like that I sort of roll my eyes when I hear like the under in the first quarters whatever like 11 and 2 last 13 years it's like well what with 10 of those with like Brady and Bella checks so like maybe maybe that's relevant maybe it's not um but also the games change like the kickoffs right change the game a lot where you get the ball right so it's just saying I'm you know next super ball I'm gonna probably even think about a little bit more and maybe try and do some work like leading up to the super bowl of those spots because I think if you have an opinion and it's correct it's like really really valuable um and there's just like it's the spot where you're gonna have like the most differing opinions on the super ball props I think so did you find the first quarter had more differences than like other I guess I would say like money line or spread derivatives was that like the big difference yes I would say you got some weird things going on with the first quarter like total and you had some weird things going on with like second half total uh and any direct like anything right having to do with those so there's there's bets that's like first half higher or lower scoring than than second half I know that's like a very popular one um - Got it. - But you definitely had some weird relationships. Because people come up with calculators or however they want to calculate that. And different books had relatively different opinions on it too. And so it was just interesting. I have my own opinions on it. - Just gonna say, did you look at the books that agree with you and said, "Okay, that sounds good." You were like, "I felt like I was happy with who I was agree with." And in general, some of them worked out, some of them didn't. But yeah, I felt like I was in the right table. - Yeah. - In the right, I was sitting at the right table in my table. - You're not there with like, "Bet River is just being like." - Yeah. - I felt like I was in the, like I said. I felt like I was in the right table. - Yes, I felt okay about it. - This is my final thing on this. What is our future plans, confidence? Where does the Super Bowl fit in in the future for you? Like I think one thing, I have changed my opinion on this year is like, and it's funny because like Rufus has been doing this forever. It's like Super Bowl props. Like he would do like his normal stuff. They always do Super Bowl props. I was like, oh man, it's like a one-off event or whatever. But it's every year, you feel like you're gonna be in this industry for a while. It's kind of worth building up something to really go after the Super Bowl. And like, yeah, I think like I'm marking on my calendar more than I would do in the past. Like yeah, we would do a little bit here there for the Super Bowl. But going forward, like I'm definitely planning for it. And it seems like you had said something like of doing some more work going up to it next year. That connects with what I'm feeling. Like I'm definitely planning for it more next year and gonna take it pretty seriously 'cause like the difference in volume between this and even like an important NFL game is so much that like you could, it's kind of worth it. - Yeah, 100%. Like I said, I would handle it differently about like the aggressiveness and whatnot. But for me, it's like right up my alley of things, like I'm not like a golf better or whatever. Like I'm very much in football and these types of things. So yeah, I think it's certainly worth it. For me, and we'll be something I'm looking forward to next year. - Okay, so to do a little, the second thing I notice because I like kind of actually decided to click into these markets 'cause they were doing crazy volume was like the undercalci, which they call it the culture markets, which was like, and we'll talk a lot about these coming up. But like the first song, "Who Will Perform It Half Time, Who Will Attend The Game," I'm missing a couple, but that type of stuff, right? These were doing like 50, 80 million in volume in contract. So, you know, anytime you see that, I'm kind of, I'm interested. I knew that like when Jack had message about the Super Stream, that I had to pick a prop, I knew I was gonna pick like a call sheet prop or something from that. So I just started looking around and clicking around. And like the speed at which you could get filled in those markets was crazy on both sides of the book. And the prices were moving around. I found those to be kind of interesting. Like that's more the traditional prediction market style. We're like, you're really just like at war in the order book. You can like feel other people in there. There's no true, there's no fair. Like everybody's kind of just like moving around, like bogging and weaving. And I thought it was like a way, it's a way different style of trading in prediction markets than just playing sports. But I think like one of the reasons why some of those old school prediction market guys have such crazy ROI is because like, you will never have edges as big like in just your traditional sports markets that come up on PMs as these markets. Like they, this is where like the recreational goes to die. They have no chance in these. Like I've, I've, I've real like, and I was kind of the wreck like coming in, but I was like, you know, doing enough to protect myself and whatnot. But these markets are both like higher opportunity when they pop up and have big volume. But like I would say just brutal for the recreational customer. - 100%. I mean, we got a question later on that it was something like, how much, like what percent did you think? It was something along the lines of what percent did you think, do you think the wrecks lost on Calcium, the Super Bowl? And I was immediately sort of like where my head went or is like, are we counting these? - These. Like, 'cause, 'cause, and we'll get that question, but 100%. Like the people in sports they can't, it's hard to lose that much because there's a bunch of people like you and I trying to compete for like the wreck flow and people generally know the price is pretty well and the price is not gonna change 20% in one second when people are sleeping or whatever. Like it's all, you know, like the Super Bowl, I think there was some stuff on Calcium with the derives that were really, really good 'cause people didn't bleed the rules. But for the most part it was few and far be too, like the edges were really much smaller than like someone, I mean, and we'll get, I think this does partly into like the Cardi B situation, everything we want to talk about there, but like when people can like know for certain, or 76% certain or whatever it was, you know, on the Cardi B thing, yeah, there's always gonna be bigger edges, right? It just reduces uncertainty. - Yeah, exactly. I'm like, you can just, you can kind of like set your price if you're the person who knows or like, you could know by like completely legitimate ways, like when the person who cracked like that time, person of the year thing by like going to the HML and finding they had like saved a page, that was a public and could tell who it was. That's totally fine, that's not insider trading, but like when you have that information, you just get to like, you're taking, you're like truly are taking money from people, not that it has a bad implication, but it's truly like in sports, like you're getting like a 1% edge. And this stuff, like if you know, you know, Lady Gaga is gonna perform the Super Bowl, your sharp ratios, infinite, infinity, like it's, you know, that's just not, there's just a difference there. So, okay, let's talk about Cardi B. This is an issue close to my heart, because I accidentally wandered into this. I feel like a person like an idiot in a movie who like accidentally wanders into some, like you know, like back room like mob deal, that was going down and I'm just, - You're probably wondering how I got here. - Yeah, exactly. - Exactly, exactly. So the reason like I kind of cared about this or like was following this was going on the Super Stream, you know, I had to have a problem. And I asked like the guys in my group, like anyone have a thought on props. And my partner Luke like started listing off some, he was like, he had a good hit rate. He goes like, I think I like Drake know, as a guy makes sense, like he got called the pedophile. Last time he was on, I think that checks out, but his price was terrible. Travis Scott know, we took a little bit of that. And then he's like Cardi B, no. And I was like, oh, I like that. I'll just, whatever, this is not important, but my thesis was like a few things. Like one, she, I didn't think she would want to like perform when her husband was playing in the big game, kind of like Taylor Swift. When it's like the biggest night of his life, like I think she probably just wants to be there to be a wag, you know, support, et cetera. And then, and then two was basically like, she was getting like really drunk the night before, doing the stream, like the flag football thing or whatever. And you know, she's like our age. You're not, you're not doing that and then going on. - Bill different, I find it, you know, they're likely built a little bit different than you know. - That's true, that's fair, that's fair. But anyway, but I thought it was like a, and then the third reason was like, Cardi's gonna get a ton of rec flow because she's like this year's T-Swift, like the famous artist dating the guy who's playing the Super Bowl, you know, the guys in the news, not for all the same reasons, like Travis Kelsey might be in the news, but you know, it's very public. And I think like the concept of like, where's the rec flow going to be in that market? Like Cardi B feels like like a rec flow. Haven, like where I could take a lot of fill on Cardi B and I'd be like, okay, I'm happy with that. Whereas like some random person that like nobody's ever heard of, I get filled for like 100,000 shares on them, I'm like, well, they're performing, I'm screwed. know, it's over. So it's kind of like one that you know, I had to give out a fun prop. So I gave it out. And then David Hill, who was with Ant, like came on, he was like, that's the prop I was going to give out. And then he had a lot better reasoning that she had not only was she like drinking on the the football thing, the football stream, but then she performed at the Finatics party. She was going on tour. And he said, like, I'm hearing like that she's not performing basically. And he said, good to 99. So I'm like, okay, the market obviously like seems to seems from like 50 to like 64. And then it settles right back down. Nobody really respected us. It was it was about two minutes of steam. But so then I kind of forget about it. But then I get messages. I start to get messages. Like I'm hearing like from this big group who always wins. Like Cardi is definitely going to be performing. And then I hear another another message like she's I hear from somebody who's like big, you know, Cardi no holder. And she's like not performing. And I'm like, okay, I don't know what to do with this. You know, I have to kind of at least hold on to my, you know, I had just just I had a small, I haven't liked such a minor player in this. It's such a small position. So anyway, I'm like holding on and whatever reason I gave it out. So. And then, uh, yeah. And then I'll help break loose. But did you take a Cardi position? I'm curious. No, I had no position. I mean, when you when I when I heard you give this out, I actually did have I didn't have this exact thought, but I had the thought of like when they said perform like I didn't know if that that would mean like she showed up on camera. And I think this gets to like the broad like with that count. And it gets to the broad point of like to me this whole story because in case anybody didn't catch the resolution, she was like in the show dancing and singing, but like not actually like basically as like a grippy dancer. He has actually like 10 celebrities like standing on like that porch. All right. They're dancing and singing and then Cal she Cal she ultimately graded it as they they couldn't just well, we'll get into the details of it. Yeah. But basically Cal she graded it as neither option one they graded it at I think at the last point of trading, which was like 74 cents or something to the no and 26 to yes or something like that. That's exactly correct. So I mean like to me, all these situations come down to there's a couple of maybe maybe the best ways to start is like the rules aspect of it. And I think in general you should want like I understand the problem that Cal she has is they want to come up with markets where there's like a headline that's interesting and and then align the market with it. So like this also makes me think of the the Ukrainian president and like will he wear a suit or not and then there was a big controversy about what was a suit. And it was like a big deal because I think you know people were commenting on him not wearing a suit. But the reality is like to me, you need to you need to try harder on coming up with like clear definable rules. Like when these when I read the rules for this, if anybody hasn't you know they bet they're posted like there was there was a there was a reason Cal she did what it did like split it. I have. I have. It was like I'll read them later. But okay. Yeah, there was like a clear contradiction in the rules like like one of the like basically one of the rules read like this counts and then the other rule like said the exact same thing. It was like singing and dancing whatever it doesn't count and singing and dancing does count. Yeah, I can't really like. Yeah, you give you the two sentences just that you're talking about. So this is what counts as a performance including dancing, singing, DJing and is either a scheduled performer or makes a guest appearance during another artist performance. But this is what's not a performance dancing or appearing on stage without singing or playing instruments. So that's very clear. Espí. I don't know what you're talking about. No, I mean that that's the issue is like like if we're talking about the core of the issue, it's right there. Like if there was clearly defined rules, because to me, it's two levels, right? Like you have the headline of the market and it's like will it already be performed? And you want that aligned as well as possible with the rules. But at the end of the day, like if they're not perfectly aligned, but you had clear rules like nobody can complain because it would be like read the rules. When you have like not clear rules like this or contradictory rules is when you run in the problem. So like, I don't know the first thought when I had thought of this is like you have the couch, very likely has the wrong people with the wrong skill sets making these rules like nobody who has it, you know, nobody who has like a lawyer would never make it. And maybe I'm wrong, you know, maybe they do have lawyers or the other people I'm going to talk about who should do be doing that. But like a lawyer would never make this mistake because like lawyers, if they're great at one thing, they're great at like unambiguous language. So like people with that background, the other people who would never I don't think make this mistake or read through this and immediately see a problem. Would be like math people or computer science people because like the way you should define the rules is they need to be like, they need to be things you could code into a computer is like how I would think about it. Like, they can't be this ambiguous like thing of perform. Like perform is not quantifiable. It would be it's like you can't you can't have these words that are non-quantifiable in it. So like, you know, here they clearly like, I mean, if I'm guessing this is like clearly some like AI slop writing the words, the rules where you have this contradiction. That's just a guess. I don't know how any human could write that. It seems so obviously like an issue. Yeah, imagine like, yeah, imagine writing that as a human. Like how would they think of that? Right. It's like, it's like, we want to offer this market, give me give me the rules and the AI like doesn't understand it's contradicting. It's like my guess is what's happening and I get, you know, they're trying to move fast and whatnot. But at the end of the day, like, you need rules that are clearly objective and they need to be like, it's better for them to be less in my opinion, less in line with like the idea of the market, but more quantum objective, like objective. So I guess the last thing I was going to say and then I'll curious like your thoughts is, you know, the actual participant was like, when people think perform Cardi B, like they they have an image of what that means and you should try and define your rules as well to that as possible. So like, I know we got a question. Did Cardi B perform or not? To me, if I asked like people who have no idea about this, they would all say no. They would say Cardi B did not perform because they think of Cardi B as a musical artist. And so like when you're defining rules, you should want to align it like that. So like this is just an example of like what you could do. It could be like Cardi B must be holding a microphone if she's not holding like because to me, it's like you have the condition condition condition and these all have to be true or something. Maybe like must be holding a microphone must be singing or lip syncing and on the field, you know, beat at the end after the end of the first half and before the start of the second half. Like something that's like check check check and right. Like so there's no disputes. There's none of this. Doesn't seem like that hard. If you just like actually use your brain, I get it's like time intensive for each one. But I mean, that's that's my job. Yeah. So there's some interesting. There's some, yeah, I'm full like deep dive into this. I think actually it goes all the way to Jeffrey Epstein, you know, and the faked moon landing. I'm deep in the weeds here. But I want to bring up a couple a couple key points. So polymarketingcrypto.com settled it as a yes. But their rules were much more straightforward or what they were were not straightforward, but they didn't clearly contradict themselves. So they kind of just settled. Yes. It was like will carry be be a part of the halftime show. Something along those lines or something you could reasonably kind of interpret to be that. And they sell yes. Okay. That, you know, honestly, like even if it wasn't what you said, which is better, it's not as bad as just having a clear this was going to happen no matter what. Right. It's just like a clear contradiction in the rules. I mean, I guess you could have got up and sang and did like a full song, bad button. And then there wouldn't be any controversy, right? But yeah. So here's here's where I'm just like this is not a serious. This is not a serious department. Who's in control of this? Carol G. Did you see this? She was the one who basically did the same thing as Cardi B. But we're doing exactly the same thing right next to Cardi B right next to her. They are doing the exact same thing settles. No. So was there as there been any communication on that that you've seen? I've seen. And now this is where it gets really where I think it starts to get problematic. So what happened? Basically what happened in my opinion was like Carol G was not like a heavily bet market like Cardi B. And the Cardi B people were were essentially like screaming at Colchie in both directions. And oh, this was just a super botch. Like, everything, this is like an all-time epic botch of all epic, epic proportions. Because not only, so many things went wrong, but we also should make a point to say they let this market trade for like 45 minutes after she was shown on screen. And then they killed the market, didn't resolve it for another hour and a half, and then came up and said, you know, rules 6.3c where like we just decide what the fucking price is and you know, that's that. And they said like, "Dude it, due to ambiguity, "your ambiguity, the ambiguity you created." So, absolute botch of like, but when they grade, like they can't grade, like a serious, serious, like objective settlement mechanism cannot grade carolgy differently than car DB there. It just can't happen. Like, so to me, this screams like subjective influence by public pressure, by pressure of customers. And then you get into the situation where like, are they just going to be influenced by their biggest? Like, is protesting the call sheet now, Alpha? These, you have a big exposition and you go in and you yell at them or where? - Have you ever been in the Calgary Discord? That's like 2/3 of what goes on there. - No, I haven't been in the call sheet Discord. - You should check it out. It's a lot of people. And but that's why I think the rule is, like you would need to err on the side of there is no disputing this. Like, even their rules on things that are obvious, they need to clean up where it's like, we look at five unique sources of like to, there'll be stuff where it's like, - What's the unique? - Yeah, it's like, what if those two sources could like, like, we sell the PGA tour on like the New York Times? It's like, I hope that you don't because they don't, they post like the top 10 or something. - Right, because like, what happens when the New York Times has a typo? - Yeah. - Or something. And it's just like, you can't have this ambiguity. Like, and, you know, they could be sitting here and being like, well, that means we can't have as many markets or whatever. And I guess where I'm coming at all this and this will sort of lead into some of the insider trading discussion we wanted to have too, is like, so I was thinking about this. I think if all three of these things are true, you shouldn't offer the market. I'll, if one of them isn't true, you're allowed to offer the market. But if all three things are true, you shouldn't do it. So if it has no utility to society, plus, it's not able to be clearly defined with criteria that aligns the purpose of the market with objectable, non-debatable things. If those two things, you don't have either of those, plus it is like right for insider information. Like, that's like the holy grail of like, just don't offer it. Like, just, it's not worth it. Like, it can be inside information and no utility but clearly definable. That's okay. It can be, you know, two, but if it's all three, like, this is just like a nightmare market and you should avoid it, which is what this market was, right? Like, it was not clearly definable. It, you know, Cardi B performing has no utility to society. And, you know, as we're gonna talk about, like these types of markets are basically just like, who's got the inside information. There's no like modeling or, I mean, people are gonna maybe get up and arms about that. It's an inside information market, right? So, - Sure. - And then, well, speaking of the CFTC, someone, I don't know if you saw Dustin tweet this out, but some a better file that complain over, yes, holder basically file that complain to that CFTC over this market. And like, they say, "Colishing is an unfair and deceptive conduct by publishing clear objective rules that gave me a reasonable bias to invest." I mean, I don't agree with that. But inducing me to purchase yes contracts based on those rules, arbitrarily invoking an extraordinary discretionary, you know, remedy, which is the famous rule, that six dot three C, which you got a great tweet about, whatever. But like, I mean, I don't agree with the first point, but yeah, the rest of them. I mean, clearly, you're just, yeah, it's like, talk your book. Like, you know, you gotta go try and get your money. I'm assuming this is a big, big yes holder, but like, there's validity to a lot of points in this claim. Like, somebody needs to just tell them they gotta get this tightened up. Like, it's brutal. - And that's the last point I wanted to say on this is like, if you think this is gonna fly when it gets more competitive, like, you have another thing coming. Like, can you imagine, you know, like, let's say, let's say draft Kings or Fandil as a product on parity, like in terms of like, prediction markets, obviously, they're not there today. But like, could you imagine one of those, like this happening and those companies, like how those companies would handle it? Say, actually, we're invoking rule 6.3 C, like, tough luck. Like, no, those companies, like, pay out both sides of the bets, like, when someone, like, gets insured in the fourth quarter, they'll pay out, like, you know, his over, even if he was nowhere near, like, winning, like, this is not gonna work. 'Cause that was the last point I was gonna say, it's okay to make mistakes and write, like, ambiguous rules and screw something up or grade something the wrong way or whatever. But this is just like the 100th instance where, they have a relatively easy, like, hey, we screwed up, we're gonna pay out the no at 100, whatever, a hundred cents. And anybody who bet yes, like, we will work with you to, like, refund or credit your account or whatever. Like, and don't, like, if you wanna be like, oh, it's, you know, like, that works in sportsbook land that doesn't work in CFTC land. Like, trust me, draft things with a fan, they're gonna find a way to make that work in CFTC land. - Oh, good, good. - You know, so like, this might work now. Good luck, like, treating your customers, like, with this type of response and whatnot, when it actually gets more competitive. 'Cause it's not gonna work. - Yeah, like, is there any like, hey, we're absolute huge morons for writing the rules like this, like, announcement? Like, I don't think so. - No, but you were like, they're like, it was like the ambiguity fell from the sky. It was like, yeah. - Right, right, yeah. - And, oh, it was like, like, who introduced this ambiguity? I don't know. - It's like the hot dog meme. We're all looking for the guy who did this or something. - Right. - Okay, let's talk, let's talk inside of shading. Because this is, this is the corollary to this that, so basically, like, there's been talk around inside of trading, call she decided to say, like, they don't, you know, they're super anti-insetter trading. And then they said that, Paulie Market was a huge, they love inside of trading, something along those lines. And I'll tell you, like, the Super Bowl market. So we'll go into some examples, but, especially after I went on Super Stream, I was getting hit with people who said they had info all over the place. Some stuff that I feel like was better than others, but, like, I think, like, the definition of an insider right now, like, in financial markets, or, sorry, if you're more thinking about it from, like, Finra's standpoint, and how you regulate broker dealers and people at public companies with non-material, with, basically, with non-material private information that's good, or material private, whatever. I'm fucking out of it. Basically, information that matters in the markets that you can capitalize on, and you know it, but you can't trade on it. There's so much structure and definitions in place. And, like, anybody who goes and works in an investment bank basically can't have their own personal trading account. It's just like it just does not happen. Anybody who works at a corporate, a corporate whose public, like, they'll never be able to inside a trade. Anybody who works as a consultant, like, into a public, like, they're gonna be probably told not to have have their own, like, discretionary trading. So, this has been, like, a hundred years in the making of the regulation and rules and definitions written around insider trading and the financial markets. And I'd say, like, there's obviously a lot of cases of it over the years, but, like, from my experience, I would say, like, they did a very good job. Like, they basically did the best job you can do. People, they throw people in jail, but they throw them in jail when they have clear written definitions where it's like, iron, cloud, like, you were insides trading. Like, you know it, we know it. It's the definition of law. We told you about it when you took, like, your series seven, like, all of these different exams that you have to pass and all of this, like, you know you're insides trading, we know it, you're going to jail. But, like, here, what is an insider SP? Like, I don't know. I mean, that's I think the biggest challenge. And so we're just sort of hard on CalShi over the this whole Cardi B situation. I will commend them for finally coming around to like speaking out against insider trading and like being willing to do that. It's like, you know, for a while, like the messaging from like that sect, it wasn't clear whether, you know, like insider trading is a feature. - True. - Like you've got some of those people. So I'm glad and I think that's great that they are sort of champion, championing this that we don't want insider trading. I think the problems you were just hitting on is the exact problems though. I think there's a couple of aspects about insider trading and prediction markets where I don't think like it's great comps to like equities or otherwise. The first thing is just in general, the one thing about prediction markets is like we were just talking about this pre show. Is like having inside information is like the whole thing, right with a binary like option type of thing like this, right? Like if you had, you know, some secretary had inside information on a company or something depending on what that, like most of the time that inside information, it's hard to even fully capitalize that or like even know what to do with that for like a normal person. Like whereas in prediction markets, it's very clear and your payoff is much easier, like it's much easier to turn information into a payoff in a prediction market than it is equities because equities like let's say you even knew like some companies gonna be earnings. Like that may or may not have the impact on, you know, stock price and whatever that, that like whereas if you're like that one of the people in the half time show, you know you're gonna get paid off if you know the first song or who's performing or whatever. There's no, there's no greatness about it. So I think that's one aspect that makes it different. And the other thing like that makes a difference is like the surface area now that this prediction market exposes to like insider trading. So at the end of the day, like most people, if they have like a normal job, they have like a very narrow scope of what would like they would have access to insider trade, right? It might be like just their company or just their industry or if like, you know, they touch a lot of industries like it would be more. But it's usually like a very narrow idea. Now with like the amount of things you can trade on, it's so wide. So if you just think about like the Super Bowl, think about the number of people who had, like who would have gained access to something that they could have insider traded on. Like anybody who obviously is in the halftime show, which is like hundreds of dancers. Anybody who's like working stadium security, probably like concessions, people who live near the stadium, who might hear like the, like it's just, and you could say like, oh, that's all public or whatever. But when you think of in part of that, I agree. Like part of those are public, that's not actually like insider trading. Some of that, like if you live near the stadium or whatever. But the point remains of like the reason you don't want insider trading is cause it, it, it hurts the market. Like it's not sustainable for only insiders to trade. It ruins like, it just creates like a toxic market that's unsustainable. And so like, just like I gave like the three things of why I wouldn't offer a specific market. If I were in their shoes, like Calgary shoes, and I was actually serious about like wanting to crack down on insider trading, the way to do this is not to hire like some dude or some task force to try and like investigate these things. That's just, like just imagine them trying to investigate like, I don't know, like whoever to perform in the Super Bowl. Like these people are just gonna be like inundated with things they have to look into. It's not reasonable like that, that it can be policed. The only way to actually stop it in my opinion is you need to narrow your markets down to things that have a much smaller surface area of insider traders. So like avoid the stuff, like who's gonna perform at the Super Bowl? Because that's gonna have an enormous number of people who have no, like some 18 year old dancer has probably never even heard the word insider trading before. Right? - Makes no money. - Exactly. So you need to avoid like the markets where you have this huge surface area of people who, like the opposite of this would be like the Nobel Prize, right? Like, that's, you know, I know there's things about insider trading and stuff there, but that's like a very small grip of people. They are trying to keep it a secret or like the next Pope, very small grip of people trying to keep it a secret. Like obviously there could still be insider trading, but it has so much less of like a surface area of potential problems than these markets where, it's like the sports equivalent would be like huge limits on, you know, challenge or tennis or something, right? So you wanna avoid those in my opinion, is the only real way to stop it? - That's kind of the conclusion I came to. And I feel like, I feel, so this is, so there's a few things there, is that like, I think sports gets this bad rap on prediction markets and we talked about this in the lead up or this, but like I came out of the super bowl of thinking like, sports is the absolute best thing for the recreational customer on prediction markets. Like when you're in these markets, you're getting your face ripped off if you're not the guy. If you don't have the info if you're not like, because it's just so easy to monetize your info once you have it in these markets. And you're basically all you're doing is just trying to, you know, stay a little bit hidden in the order book while you just collect as much as you can from people who are just having a punt on the market. And you know it's a lock and, you know, they have no clue. So, you know, I do think like, it's so funny, like sports is the thing that's getting dragged, but like these markets are so much worse for the, you know, the average customer. But since we're in this world where we're pretending this isn't gambling and this has some, you know, whatever it's just like everybody's just being so stupid, right? But yeah, sports is probably the safest place to be if you're a rac like big sports events. You're not gonna win, but you're not gonna lose like 70% ROI or whatever. Right. And the other thing is I agree with you. Like unfortunately for, you know, these, these exchanges which seem to want to offer everything under the sun, like I've always thought, scale it back a little bit, increase the liquidity because you're gonna get more eyeballs per market. So, like right now it's hard to find everything anyway on the, on the UI and get your settlement rules and check and do the things that, you know, people would reasonably be willing to market make for a big size without insider info. Because like if you're thinking about like who's posting passive orders on that for format, super bowl, you know, market for big size, like, you know, not me. I don't, I imagine most market makers aren't call she trading might have to and then like whoever has the, the goods, like the info, you know, so it's like, when the market maker like knows what's gonna happen, that starts to become like a really bad experience for the customer. And, you know, there was a some chatter about, you know, basically that Emerald Slim quote, which is like, you can shear, you can shear sheet many times but you can skin it only once. It's like, I mean, how, and we're gonna talk about kind of that like data about how much, you know, call she, users lose, but like, at a certain point, you can't just like make the experience so terrible for people that like they lose every single bet they place basically. And so like, and that's not on the market maker. It's like on the exchange to pick the right markets to set up the rules properly and to like operate only markets where they feel like they're not gonna absolutely skin their customers. Yeah, and I would even maybe make the slight change. The better is actually can lose like every bet and be okay, but what they can't do is lose and feel cheated. So, that's a good point. Like the SGPs work and they lose, like better is lose all the time, but in general, people keep betting them because they're fun and they feel like in general, like it's just random bounce of the ball. Like nobody is gonna strap in to like bet on, you know, a market where they feel like someone, like they got taken advantage of. Nobody likes to feel stupid and these markets just like are, that's what they're ripe for. So, you know, like that's the biggest issue to me is like, and why I think they're, why I just write them as like toxic and whatnot and they're just not sustainable, why they, it's just like nobody wants to participate in them long term. 'Cause it's just, the recreationals, like even though they're happy to lose money, they don't want to lose money in a way that they feel dumb. And obviously people who don't have the insider information aren't going to wear a sharp or whatever, trying to win aren't going to participate. So you're just left with insiders. So yeah, I'm glad to see they're trying to do stuff on it. But I think you're point about narrowing markets and trying to avoid ones where it's just right for this. And like really a wide bunch of people, you're just like increasing the risk. Every new person that could insider trade, the market, you're just increasing the risk that it's going to happen. And prevention is worth far more than like trying to police it, in my opinion. I think that's a good, that's a good bow for our Cardi B spectacular. I wonder what Cardi thinks. It should settle that. Cardi, if you listen to me, I know you listen. Yeah, I know you listen. Would you say you performed or not? OK, let's quickly hit the news. Even though this has been a semi-newsy type main topic. So CFTC withdraws the 2024 rule proposal, which sought to ban sports from event contracts. So this was maybe a week ago, a week and a half ago, when the new commissioner kind of came out right. And was like, yeah, we're basically letting it rip on prediction markets. We're going to go and just like repeal like anything that was holding him back. Good news for us, I guess. Yeah, I would say so in general, at least in a short term. The one thing that I wanted to say about like this guy in the whatever five tweets he or whatever that I've seen since he's taken over is, I think it's obviously a good short term. I think it's sort of a clown show long term. Because not this specific rule or whatnot, but his general vibe on Twitter is like the own the Libs type of vibe. I think there was a tweet where AOC was being critical of the prediction markets or whatever. And he responded something like CFTC finally getting back to, you know, on the right track or something along those lines. And to me, like what are politics aside, like this is just a strategic blunder that they are making to turn this into a like if they want to turn this into a political issue. I think that's like a big mistake. Because in general, like gambling both parties, you know, like it crosses both party lines. Like a gambling is legal in states of both parties. And there's it's not like a single party issue. And so to I think that in my opinion, like there's a lot of the problem that crypto has run into. It was actually funny. I don't know if you saw some of the videos of that coin base ad where like, you know, people were singing the mom and then everybody started like booing or being disgusted when they actually realized it was a coin base ad. And you know, like no, no personal opinion on, on that. But it's like that to me, that's a losing playbook. Because you're in this area gambling where I think you, you don't need to immediately like turn it into a partisan issue and have 50% of the country like, categorize you in with a bunch of other things they don't like. So I think it's a big mistake to be like, to lean into like prediction markets are like these right leaning things. If you're like, if I'm if I'm calcium or polymarket or whatever, I would be telling this guy to like shut shut up, like do not be turning this in because what because eventually like, you know, and eventually the winds are going to turn. And if you've turned yourself into like a right wing thing, then there's a large segment of the country that I just going to want to take you down. It's just like a victory. So I think it's like an unforced error to to turn this into like a political thing. But you know, I agree. She'll see. Yeah, I agree. I think it's always bad. You're kind of like optimizing for the next three years. Be like, it's kind of like like you read what you saw. It's like, you know, I forget what the mean. It's like me when I'm sowing and it's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, and then me when I'm reaping or whatever, it's that like there will be other elections. There will be different parties of power. I do like how you point out that gambling really brings everybody together across the aisle. It's very wholesome like that. And we got to protect it. But yeah, I don't have much more there. What do you think about the prediction market ads getting the NFL saying you can run them during the survival? Yeah, the only thing I and we could go through quick through the rest of these news. The only thing I thought about this was interesting is just like they clearly don't have the the prediction markets clearly don't have the blessing of the NFL yet. And right. I think the getting the support of the leagues is very important for a variety of reasons. You know, you don't want to you don't want to keep having to market. This is the big game or whatever it was on. Uncalf. It's right. Can we talk about the Super Bowl? I'm not sure. I'm not sure. We don't mean we don't own any of the trade marks. I don't know. I don't know what we have to do with legal disclosures we need to give. But I just thought it was interesting because they I know they've had like success with like the NHL and some smaller sports but clearly you know, draft kings and fandals and legal books have spent a lot of money on the relationship with the NFL. I thought that was interesting because you know we would have gotten some some prediction market ads. So it would have been. There's a point. Unhinged. Yeah. I mean, the the leagues were the reason that basically Passport got repealed like they it wasn't really happening unless that's basically like how this books like that Trojan horse into into the you know, all of our cell phones as they got basically behind the leagues and then the leagues basically did the heavy lifting of like, hey, we're good guys, you know, we're not the sports books. We think this should should happens to having the leagues is like really important to SPS point. Okay, this was like we kind of hinted at this but basically a bank analyst publish a report that said call she users lose money faster than sports gamblers and then call she accuses them of extortion. So like I think what happened was it was like this bank analyst got numbers from juice reel and juice real is like a like a bet stamp picket type app. That's the best of my knowledge, right? SB. Yeah, it's like a picket competitor. I was it. So they you know, they have people like hook their accounts up and then the the uh yeah. So basically then they were like, okay, well like the the call she users are the are losing money like faster on juice reel than the sports book users. I don't even know if I think that's that's wrong but like I think Captain Jack had a good point of like some selection bias type situations like everybody who already got like everyone who already like attached it and just like a glitter either bank girl in the sports book wasn't you know when they launched in their state like three years ago wasn't on juice reel anymore. So like of course you're going to get like everybody you're basically in the sample of like everybody from call she whereas you're getting a sample from the people on sports books who are like probably skewing a little bit towards a little more towards winners at sports books but like for the reasons that SP and I talked about with the the markets on call she like you know the inside trading ones and you know a higher higher vig for takers you know if you're make like I think a lot of people kind of under it the how sick it is to be able to make and get really good prices it's like funny because it's like call she has really bad prices. You really think call she has really bad prices are really good prices like I'm only getting prices that call she that are better than any other place around but then like you know the wreck might only be getting prices that call she that are worse than any other place around so like what call she's like price is actually a very interesting conversation that like it's this you know it's different to different people but uh yeah I would say like I don't know I'm not too swayed by this I I think like there's probably some truth but the it was a interest it was like probably a little bit of a tough setup for call she based on like the window of time they were picking. Yeah I mean like I won't even I'm not even gonna like comment on the the study because I think you covered it well I think other shows talked about it Captain Jack had a good tweet about like I think it's well covered like some limitations of it I think it's interesting to try and do the part I wanted to talk about is like sometimes I feel like the call she like columns team is like Nathan Fielder like I'm excited for like the next Nathan for you it's like all right we're gonna we're gonna we're not only gonna dispute the data we're gonna we're gonna we're gonna say they were extorting us like that's that's like what is sometimes I'm just like amazed at what happens here like the the person like the head of comms was like in Twitter comments like trying to explain the situation like as soon as you have to click respond on Twitter you've lost it's over like yeah you do not So, you know, I'm not, I'm not, you know, like a communication person. That's not what I do. I don't know what I'm talking about as it relates to that. But in this situation, it would seem like the strategy was not to, like, try and smear a company and a guy and say he was extorting you. Even if you think that's true, like that's probably not the strategy. Strategy is probably to just, you know, write a short excerpt of why you think the data is misleading or wrong. You just need one person. And say, please include this in your report. Like that seems to be the strategy, not, not whatever they're doing. So, because sometimes I'm just amazed. Like, this combined with like the, the whole Cardi B thing, it's just like, who is running the comms for some of this stuff? I agree. I agree. But is it Nathan? and do the comms for like a third prediction market that hasn't launched, but he's done two rehearsals on both Colchie and Polymarket and rehearsed them attacking each other. So he knows what to do when he gets attacked. I mean, this is two to three cents worth. It's worth two to three cents on the Yes. Yeah. I don't want to get too much into it because it's yeah, everything he said is, I think, to the same looker on rings pretty true. And then shout out to Sportsrade for filing for CFTC license. And then I saw Victor, Victor Roka, the comms, I guess the comms guy for the Indian gaming association called Alex can like piece of shit or something for like applying for this is like bro, what are you? Like he's just he's just playing his cards, man, just like you are like it's so funny. But anyway, yeah, shout out to Sportsrade. I think Sportsrade of anybody kind of got the raw. The well, I mean, it's TBD because I think we realized like the thing to do here was just to like go into a legal gray area and then just like ask for permission later. And like Sportsrade was like very by the book. And I think like they're very I like Alex can a lot and it's a company that you know, I think a lot of people respect and think operates very honestly. And their decision to kind of really go by the the clear laws may have may have kind of put them behind the table. So I hope the CFTC recognizes they have a lot of good tech and a lot of good team and they've been you know a good operator. Yeah, I I I saw that they hoped I think they said they hoped to be live by next football season. That seems really quick based on the turn rounds. I saw there was news that I didn't write this down. There was an exchange. I don't know if it's related to sport. I don't think it's related to sports, but they got from application to approved six months. So there was one. I don't know, you know, to me this this whole thing seems like from an outsider seems like a bunch of like, who do you know? Type of deal. But I hope I hope them I hope, you know, all the sweeps exchanges that are doing that. They'd be beautiful if they were all live by football. That would be that would be another boom like that would be like the third boom for sure. Questions. Let's do it. Okay. If we got we got Conzi or Conzi, I think actually sorry, can see jump trading is taking equity, stake and college free slash polymarket actually didn't know this until he asked the question. How do you think things change? Who is it good for? Who is it bad for? Do you have a have some thoughts? Yeah. So I think on this pod we've talked about before like how we actually think maybe like the traditional finance people might not be as good like right off the bat at least as we thought. Something that sort of changed my mind. I don't know if you listen to the bet the process with that Chris guy. I think his name is from sick. And when he was talking about it, you know, I don't know that much about you know like trading other industries obviously year more versus than that. But like he made a point that, you know, these people are going to be good relatively quickly because the stuff they are trading it's not let and this makes total sense to me. It's not like their experts in like soybeans or whatever. It's like I think that what he had said the quote was something and I'm paraphrasing something along the lines of like their experts in pricing and trading things that they know nothing about. And so well, I think there's like I that honestly changed my mind a little bit and make sense to me that I so I guess to answer that question like his actual question how do you think these things change? I think I think in general like any investment into the industry by big players is like net good to keep the industry alive. I guess I would say first and foremost, I think the industry any investment with big players is also net good to increase the size of the industry and like number of eyeballs and casual participation. So I think that's all good. I think I don't know how it cannot be net bad for like what I would call your garage market maker. What's up? Yeah, I don't know how it cannot be bad like long term for those people to have people come in who are experts at this even if it's not sports like they're going to get better. Like it's just a matter of time and I think that's the debate of like how long that time is in my opinion. And I guess I'm leaning towards sooner rather than later after after hearing him talk about that. But so I would say it's bad for those people. I would say maybe neutral ish for like sharp takers because they're still always going to be holes like and I would say it's good for recreational betters because spreads will get tighter. So I would say that good for the ecosystem as a whole bad for probably a lot of people who like listen to this pod. Yes, I agree. I agree. I think basically what's happening. Now I was like very I was like I remember somebody posted something like six months ago and it was like so and so like raise money and they didn't have like any track record or something and to market make for action markets. I was like why would you even need to raise money to market make this stuff? It's just free money out here and like you don't have to be too sophisticated. Just spin it up. You really wouldn't want to like you wouldn't want to give away any control or whatever. Now I feel a little differently like jump is coming in, sig you know and I actually like I'm a little I'm still like I think like Chris did a great job on that pod and he did a great job on on risk of ruin and I think you know I agree with a bunch of what he said. But I do think there's like he's missing the one exception which is when people who have made it their job to to trade and to basically like trade on like an open order book system also know how to price sports well like that will always be the people who are just trading it without knowing about it. So like I think the way to to win is kind of like probably now you kind of got to go for it and you got to use pricing as your your weapon. But like you're not going to be able to do it unless you know how to really know how to trade I think. But there's that combo that will I mean I'm literally just talking myself off the edge of the building but like there's that combo that that I think that I think will still probably win. But you you really need to understand like where you can kind of get one up on on these financial firms and that's going to be via pricing and knowing sports. And if they're going to take the opinion like they don't need to know anything about sports like I think they'll have a room awakening and they'll eventually come around to also trying to find people like price sports and probably dip into the sports betting talent pool a little bit. But it kind of goes into to Lewis question which was a sub-tweet of Conzi. He said please answer this and go into death. I think we already kind of did that short term long term implications of financial institutions throwing money at sports. All caps ignore sig because they suck do not use them as frame of reference does tradify simply use market devig and penny merchant do they originate a they are you know they're devigging penny merchant they're really going to show you don't think that's always you're basically saying you don't you don't believe that's always going to be the case I would have read that correct. I think we're in a agreement there that yeah right now like it seems like it's mostly devig trying not to get killed in spots and yeah and but yeah I I think what you said is a good point I guess where my head was at is like these people are smart. people and if they invest enough resources, they can eventually, in my opinion, get good at the sports aspect. They're just smart people. It's not an insurmountable barrier. And so, it'll be interesting to see, because it's a race. It's like, can the sports people get better at market making and get competitive enough there before these firms can get good at the sports. Part of it. I totally feel like we're on the clock. I feel on the clock right now. And I'm not diminishing these firms. There's an enormous pressure I feel from their inevitable entry into the space. So we shouldn't increase the pod to three hours. When we start adding advertisements, that's when you know that they're doing good job. Don't say that. Maybe somebody will offer us an advertisement. They'll think we're washed. That's true. That's true. Yeah, that's true. We could get like a, like if we got a Tobu Chico, I'm just saying, like, if Tobu Chico decided to sponsor it, I'm taking it and that doesn't mean we're washed. Any mulch companies out there, let me know. Yeah, that's the phase of the mulch. Okay, this, I have, this was the question, obviously, this is the most interesting question from Kobe, who I love, Kobe bets absolute monster, crusher and call she and he's in college. He, he posed a question to us. And I thought a lot about what I think you're going to answer. You got a thousand grapes in front of you. One is poisonous and you die if you eat it. You get a hundred K for each grape you eat. How many are you eating? So I, I know my answer. I'm going to guess as to your answer and you can guess. I think you're zero. Yeah, I'm definitely zero. I'm also zero. Yeah, oh, yeah, I mean, I, I think I figured you were zero. I mean, I think you, I actually thought about this a good bit today. Like me too. You can, you can like do some, you can obviously think about it in like the, the basic way of sort of like, you know, like what, what, I guess the way I think about this is like an economic framework of like what do you assign? Like utility curves and like downside? Because you sort of have to assign like what is the cost of, you can either view it as like the cost of death or the price of life. And if that number is like, actually, yeah, no, it's, you know, like, it's, if you, if you picture a utility curve, like, you know, like a logarithmic curve, if you're like anywhere, not very far down. And if you have like, if there's basically any price, like if you'd be willing, like if you'd rather be like negative a million dollars than dead, which I would be, I would rather be, then, you know, as that number gets very, you know, very large and negative that the decision becomes clear not to eat any grapes. But yeah, I mean, I don't think it's particularly close. I did. Yeah. Like my gut knew the answer right away, but then I actually wanted to think about it. Did you start to think like, is there a great number? Is there a number? I came to the, and, you know, I'm very happy that this is my, like a true answer. It was like, it does not matter how much I get for each grape. I'm not eating a grape because, right. And yeah, that's, that's great. Right. And that's what that's what I was like, I mean, you should like eat one grape for a billion. Like, you'll probably live. No, I'm not really the same way. I, yeah, the marginal utility is, I think people really underestimate the hedonic treadmill and like, how much happier it may be easy for me in you to say, you know, given our life circumstances and whatnot. But like, I'm not going to be materially happy, happier, like two months from now with whatever, you know, whatever. Yeah, it's not like I'm going to eat a hundred of the grapes and like be at 10%. I like sheets his answer. He's like, just eat a thousand, you know, teach him a way to stick with things. Like the person who just, it's like 10 million. What was funny is I actually, I wanted to see what some AI would say. And AI was like, it's first answers. Like you should eat 500 of these grapes. And I'm like, Oh boy, I absolutely don't know. Five hundred. So yeah, I just coming for all of our jobs. Brutal. I don't that's a, that's a, I'm not having AI like recommend bad sizes because that is not Kelly life staking right there. Okay, this is a good one. I feel like we didn't really talk about this because we try and avoid this type of stuff. But Calvin, former guest of the show, do either of you have any ethical lines you would, you won't cross with betting markets. Even if you had a big edge could get money down and it was legal. If yes, how do you make that decision? No first hand involvement or inside sources involved. I have a line somewhere but I don't know how to define it. Then you get some examples, little league world series, high school football game, betting against a drunk person on something country to go into recession, country to go to war, betting against no gambling addict. I like that. Like he's clearly escalating and that that's beyond the country going to war. Someone to pass away in 2026. Someone to get assassinated. I don't know why I laughed there dog fight. I don't think on the record, I don't think assassinations are funny. Yeah, I mean, I would not bet on most of these. So yeah, I definitely have a line like I'm absolutely you were dead on the little little league world series and a high school football game. I think I probably would do those two. I don't know exactly how to define the line but it's like anything where I'm betting harm to like like it's very clear that I'm betting harm to an individual person. That definitely is not right. Like or animal like the dog fight is disgusting. And I saw Calvin put this pull up. Obviously I know. I know it's really disturbing. Like what was it like 35% people voted yes they bet on a dog fight. Yeah, insane. So like I don't even honestly it's like uncomfortability to talk about that. Like those ones so like absolutely no to that stuff. Little league world series high school football game like you know nobody's actually like getting my kids like if you're a little bit of just going to bet on the game and they know about it. That's fun. Yeah, so I mean yes I do I do have a line I definitely wouldn't do like to the other ones like gambling addict like I absolutely wouldn't mess around with any of that. That's pretty abhorrent. So um, so here's here's something we're like playing poker I think like gives you a bit more of nuance opinion here because I think anybody who's played poker especially like played poker with an edge and played poker live will often like be at a live game where one guy's like clearly drunk and they're like so fucking annoying and but they're you know they're getting involved in a ton of pots and like what do you do there and like what I basically came to in poker is like if you're at the table in poker like I'm playing I'm playing you to make I'm making the best decision. I can't once I sit at the table that's kind of like that's kind of it but like what I thought crossed the line in poker was when people would try and get go after like known gambling addicts to get them to play like heads up alone and like get them to you know lose a bunch of money that way. So that's kind of like I don't know what you think about that but like in poker like I found like it I was definitely uncomfortable when like I would you know I remember like one of the first pot big pots I ever played live I was like 18 or 19 in Canada and like I had this I basically like bet three straights of the set against this guy and like what jam the river and like he called and lost and I was like yeah like I don't know I had only played online so I was like perfect like that's played it great and then he like slammed the table and like was clearly so upset I was like oh fuck like that's like other people's money that so but so like that kind of bug me but then I realized like if you sit down you have to just play the win but like going out of your way to like target or like what I would say like pray on these people to get them to play more to play more games get them to come to your table get them to play heads up that to me was where I kind of drew the line I'm curious like your thoughts on that like there's probably some of that in DFS or yeah I mean like these days like I you know I didn't play poker and I can imagine it would like I might thoughts on this would be different when I was 22 than I am today but so I you know I don't know how I would answer like back then but like these days if I was at a poker table and I was playing and someone was like out weirdly gambling addict or like just like dumping because they're a hammered or something like I would I personally I would try and like get that person a step away from the table yeah I think the money's just it wouldn't be worth it to me like I would I would feel if ultimately the person doesn't want to listen to me, then yeah, I'm gonna play or whatever. Right. But like, I would probably feel uncomfortable these days. Like, yeah, like, that's a spot where like if someone was like super, super drunk, you would tell the floor, you're like, hey, like, I think this guy probably might need. So they're never gonna listen to you. I promise you that. Like, they need to take an extension of the grape thing. It's like, to me, it's like the same thing. It's like how much, it's like marginal utility and like, do you want to sacrifice what? And again, does anybody care about like the reason we don't talk about this is like, nobody, I don't think anybody actually cares about our, whatever ethics or virality as their own, whatever. But like, whatever years is like, I don't know, it's just not worth, it's not worth like doing that for a little like money that's probably not gonna change your life, you know, or at least wouldn't change, you know, like mine in that instance. So yeah, is he's not worth it. There's a good quote by Garrett, I'll see who's a pretty well known like high-six poker player. And someone asked him like, how do you define the best poker player? And he was like the person who makes the most money while not cheating or while not doing anything that crosses like ethical boundaries basically. And I thought like, I was like, that's fair. Like, I think that's a good, that's a good of a definition as you can get to. And like somebody recently asked me like, what, would I consider success? And I was like, it's hard to define. But then like, basically what I end up saying is like, make as much money possible and not and do it in what I deemed to be like an ethical way. And I think like, I think like at the minutiae, like we can all kind of argue about what we think is ethical or not. But then like, I think there's other things that like are clearly, like I think broadly, we kind of know like what's what's on ethical and like, I don't know. If everybody has really different definitions, I mean, that's probably, it's, you know, I'm sure there would be things that I do that other people would would never do and advice, you know, certainly vice versa. In fact, you know, that poll. So, fair. I'm not here. That poll is is our kind of, this is a VR one and only ethics question. Thanks. Thanks, Colin. We have next. Benjamin. Okay. Oh, this is for you. So I'm going to ask this question here. Well, you've, okay, so you said this is to SP. You mentioned you used Surgeon 8 eSports. Any fun storage slash dead edges curious to see how you think about balanced patches too. That's interesting. Small data problem versus using previous data and updating it using Goal knowledge. And then finally, why did you stop the balance patching is a great question. So explain that, explain what that is for us non nerds. Okay. So let me, let me, I'll, I'll, I'll get to that, but I want to answer questions in order. So I make sure I hit them all. So eSports, I wasn't like, I, the only reason I got into eSports was, I think I mentioned this was during COVID. It was like the only DFS sport running. And so I got pretty into it. They're, they're big contests. And it, like I said, it was the only thing running. So I got pretty into it. Then once I had that built, I got into like the DFS 2.0 eSports stuff like underdog and price picks and stuff. So I wasn't like, I eventually tried to originate like actual games like, like, I can just bet this team to beat this team. It was not super successful and like totals and stuff. So I quit that relatively quickly. So it was just what I'm talking like I'm not talking like real eSports. Like I know those markets are actually pretty competitive. I'm talking like player based stuff. But in terms of any fun stories or dead edges and the patches. So the patch stuff if you're not familiar is like what makes eSports really interesting is they change the game or some of the games change the way the game is played in aspects of the game. Like on a pretty regular basis. So it would be like the equivalent of the NFL changing the kick kickoff rules. But they do that maybe like every month or something every couple months. And they're like material changes to the game that can really change how it's played. And so I think I shared, I had two things that I jotted down for fun stories or dead edges. One of the, I think I talked about this one. But basically all the early stuff was like correlation type based like it was insane what they used to allow you to do in terms of like correlation. I mean eSports is like very, very correlated. So that was like a lot of it. You didn't actually have to be like smart at all or have like a process at all. You could just probably like blindly bet correlated things and it was good. So that was like a big one. There was stuff about like in league, which was the primary one that I spent the most time on. There was stuff around like creep score, which is effectively like a proxy for how long the game is. Like the worst player might get like eight creeps creeps a minute or something. I don't remember it's been a while. And the best player might get like 10, 11 or something. So but like everybody's within that band. So if the game goes 30 minutes and you can take everybody like over, like the correlation is insane there. So that was like one that was allowed at one point. In terms of patch stuff, there were two things that stood out. This is like real, you know, we're getting real ball knowledge. But in league, there are certain, there are champions, you know, the characters you play as. And there were these cases where certain champions got very popular in certain roles. There's there's, you know, a bot lane pairing, a center Tom Kentch, where who farms is different. And like who actually gets the creeps is different. And so you could do some cool stuff with that in terms of like correlations and like anti correlated things once they actually understood the correlation. There was a big change like one of the years, a durability patch where they made everybody like harder to kill basically like reduce the damage of everybody. And everything was like lower kills, lower scores and everything. So that was a big deal. So for this stuff, like when I was doing it, like you didn't need to be that precise. Like you just there would be like directional things. I would just like, you know, man, I'll just throw having my head because I wasn't like doing things I would say are that serious or had to be that precise at that time. But it was fun. I still, I still, you know, league is like the only sport if you call it a sport that I'll watch without a bet. I still I still can enjoy, you know, some league. So when you're talking about like the patch comes out and you didn't, you know, you don't have to like, you're not quantifying it as part of like a, you know, you're you're not quantifying it, backtesting it, putting it into your model, etc. But what you're doing is like, you kind of have a base rate and you have a strong opinion of like what this should do. And then you're kind of you look at the market and you're like, okay, so they're clearly not realizing this. So I'm just going to directionally be doing this or correlating this. Is that kind of what you're doing? Yeah, exactly. So in something like the durability patch, like basically, I knew, you know, if I'm like slightly under the line or market or whatever, like that's probably actually quite good. If I was like, right, you know, slightly above that, actually, probably not that good and probably like more, you know, like in line. And then the other stuff I would say is more like angle-based stuff of like, I think this team is going to play like they have a very good chance of playing this pairing this this like bot lane combination in one of the games. And if they do, what does that mean? Got it. Okay. So it'd be good to be stuff like that. But yeah, yeah, no, I wish others, but you know, because these are the best times in sports for like creative problem solvers. Like this is like when the most alpha is generated is when there's like changes. And so I wish more sports would like change the rules more regularly. Yeah, I think that kind of like like poker's kind of gone through that where like they've had to kind of add stuff to make people still want to play like high-sakes cash against professionals like all these different aspects like bigger aunties and like just like random like, you know, stand up game or add an extra card to peel. And I think like you eventually just have to start doing that. So I like that. That's a good like sports take up, like there should be more sports patches like each each every like quarter of the season. They're like here's the new patch for hockey like. Yeah, like when LeBron's eyes peak, you can only play with his left hand. You know, you got it. You got it. You got it. Yeah, it's getting out of control. Okay, so this we alluded to this one. This is from Christophe Przingis fan club who just was traded. So I don't know if the fan club was happy with that or not, but we'll let them comment. Make a prediction on the amount of money the wreck public lost on call she on the Super Bowl 900 million traded as a starting point. Well, I'm going to assume like in the culture markets, the wrecks did like negative 50% ROI would be my guess something like that. Is that like crazy? I don't know if the nine I like I don't know if the 900 million includes. I would agree on the culture markets. It's I don't know if I don't know if I'd go as high as I would just definitely like 20 plus. Okay. That would be my guess of what they've they lost on those. That's probably on the game. I have I don't have like a good sense of this at all. Obviously the experts are really thin on like any of the mainline stuff. So like they're the most they're losing their assuming they're not like worse than 50% which be like a couple percent, right? Yeah, those are losing everything. Yeah, plus, yeah. But I think on the, you know, there was a lot of like derivatives and props. And I think for the most part, they got washed on those. So, right. I don't know. Yeah, that's true. Like if you think about it, like I was even just thinking in terms of EV, but the game didn't really shake out well for for Rex and on the props and the derivative. Certainly not. Like so. Two best receivers, I think under, uh, and didn't score very few touchdowns. Yeah, kind of. I heard in school. Yeah. So like, yeah, I would think most parlay's were completely bust. Like I said, we talked about it earlier. I would have thought like the public would have been on Seattle type stuff. Um, so that I could be wrong with that, but that's, that's my guess. So I don't know. Like my guess would be somewhere like on CalShi, maybe what I wrote down, this could be like way off. I guess on the sports based stuff, maybe like seven to 10%. I don't know if that's that's a ludicrous. Oh, no, I think that that might be lower than what I have. Okay. But I was thinking about the culture market. So if I, I was going to say, I was really bring it up. I was going to say 300 million if it was 900 million because of the, I had a number on culture markets that was, was too high, but my number on the game was too low because I wasn't thinking about the actual results. I was thinking EV. I think the EV was probably in that range, but I think with how it actually played out, like we're talking like 20% plus would be my guess because they're losing almost every any touchdown bet place. Like if you think of who scored like Mac Holland's, um, Barner and who was the third like, these are someone someone else who wasn't, I wasn't, okay, okay, that's fair. It was Stevenson. Okay. So that was one, that was one guy who overcame them. So yeah, I think they got, I think maybe more. I would say like 20, 25% or more. Okay. Yeah, I honestly don't know. I think your best gauge would be like to look at what the reports are. We should ask the question. How much did Rex? They might suspect us of trying to extort them. So no, let's not do that. We kind of hit on this BTT sports. Basically talking about the inside information problem, but they asked if there's going to be a problem where like we'll get to the point where inside info, like we'll have to really worry about in sports. And obviously there's there's public well-known cases of athletes, you know, rigging their prop lines, their pitch ones, whatever. We all know this exists and has existed. But I think like what BTT sports is saying is that will the injury or usage stuff basically feel like the Cardi B or the Cardi B or the Lady Gaga stuff. And then we'll get to a point where the baseline viewpoint is that non-insider won't have an edge in any sports market that's highly dependent on injury status or usage. So my thought is that no, I don't see that happening with sports. I think one of the things that sports has going for it was something I was alluding to with like the equity's market is like having insider information helps a lot in sports depending on what it is. But it's not like the whole game for a lot of these markets. Like it's not going to move the market to 100%. I mean, unless it's like one of these cases where someone's truly, I'm talking like inside information is like injury news or like who's going to start or something like that. Not like he's throwing the first pitch is an intentional ball. So that's one part of it. I think the other part is that like there's yeah, there's just more randomness in the sports than there are like these markets that are predetermined. I do think though the public is like the more these insider information that gets talked about on like these garbage markets. Like the that person who believes, you know, sports are rigged and it's all like fake, they're just going to become more emboldened by like the insider information discourse were in. So like the I think like the recreational person is not going to be able to separate it. Like they're going to equate injury news and lines moving off of that to who knows the Cardi B is going to perform or whatever. So I think it's like net bad all that that's why I think it's it's important to try and reduce like the feeling of inside information because the last thing you want is like more people to believe like sports are rigged and that you know this is like that's the damaging part I think. Do you think there's like a boy that credible type thing where like you know sports books and the exchanges see like the common recreational sports better is always like oh it's rigged like anytime the release is rigged. That guy you know fendill unless they call that guy but then when it comes to like lady Gaga performing it's like no that that was like somebody who knew like this is not necessarily like was it rigged but it was like that there's inside information there you know it's like I don't know right and then it goes to policing part like they're just never gonna they're never going to be all police and so yeah yeah yeah no I think it's it is true and that's what I mean like the the the the the vent diagram of the people who complain about those two things I think are like there's a lot of overlap I think you know there's there's hopefully us being like more sophisticated can complain about the one and realize like how problematic it is and understand that there's there's differences and there's nuance in there but yeah I think it's not bad if you have a bunch of people thinking like I said people do not want to feel stupid and they don't want to bet thinking things are rigged like that's like the easiest guaranteed way to get people off your your platform exactly okay another kind of like reggae type half time thing T.T. meet me per grunto apologize all of our Spanish speaking listeners for that supposedly leaked in the info was everywhere as the first song this is a first song bet yet you could still trade for size in the 60s right before half time no this was by a fervorant flinger no truth finders thought the info was good enough to bid at higher I like the truth finders um yeah I so this was another thing like I think like I I basically knew lady gago is going to perform at this at before you know the half time um and I did not I did not wager on it you know we go back to kind of our our um you know ethical betting things it didn't feel like a spot I really wanted to be um but you know I don't think you know shout to anybody who did rip it in there like a you know whatever do you you know make your money make your money but like I could still get it for a pretty solid like yeah it's like in the a b's it's like 80 cents like that's pretty good like if you know what's gonna happen right like I do think like these markets didn't go like you're like I was kind of impressed by the restraint of the insiders and some of these markets um is that what you think so I honestly don't have a good answer to this either like the like I have like a real opinion of what was your real opinion so like I think like you're obviously never a hundred percent sure but you're also like there's no reason to just be like super stupid if you're the insider and just blow the book like all the way to 98 99 like if you're an insider you really believe in the info you might even be offering the other side for some size and I think I saw this in a couple markets to you know maybe keep somebody from jumping from penny jumping you on the bid by showing like there might be some opposition by making the market feel like anybody who thinks you know they heard the tip from somebody all let's be like oh man but there's someone in there with a big position on the offer like I don't know and that's certainly you know happens to me like I was looking at the card you look and I was like why is this not moving like why and then I was like why are there all these like big offers out there like this is kind of crazy like I feel like after David talked on the the super stream I was like oh she's not performing this is a hundred percent so that made me like definitely way more cautious about like piling and piling into Cardi but yeah I think like if you're really sophisticated person with good info like you're massaging the order book and squeezing as much as you can out of it without spooking it so I could see but the thing is like I think to to his question like if everybody thought there is insider info you know yeah I could see it I could see it booming but nobody who gets the second hand is going to feel confident in it so any slight hint of opposition could uh easily like make people a bit more cautious and keep the order book out of more reasonable level yeah I think I think that aligns with my only hypothesis is like it had to have been I wrote you know the way I would frame it is like people playing games a little bit of trying to be more sophisticated than just piling it like we saw. Because I'm very confident people had the goods here. It's too big of an event for someone not to have the goods. So whether it was or not, the optimal way to trade it, I'm sure there was major games being played here. I know there was even the book with Trent and some other influencers. I had that in the notes. I don't want to speculate or make accusations or whatever. But if I had the goods and I could somehow leak the goods to somebody who's going to influence the market or leak the non-goods and get someone with millions of followers that tweeted out, that would be something I wanted to make as much money as possible. That would be something I would consider doing. I just think there would probably be games being played. I think what you're talking about is book with Trent and Alex Kruisso. I think I have two of the biggest followings. They tweeted out, I heard it from an insider that this other song is going to be the first song played. I know Kruisso deleted his tweet after it or after maybe it lost or whatever and maybe Trent kept it up. It's trade at nine cents. So if you're hearing second hand, I think it's this song. I guess those are not great examples. But anything like that, if you're not the person with the info, spooks you in these markets. To be clear, it could not even be my. My. Oh yeah, yeah, I actually don't. They're the ones. I think I think like someone could you could deviate a plan to be like, all right, you're going to be the insider and you're going to get in this person's ear to tweet this out. That doesn't seem that far fetch. They totally believe it. I just think you got to be careful on those. But let's go to the next because we are running a little longer. Maybe that doesn't have. What is your guy's best guess on the amount of profit? The number one person on the Calche leader board is at. Second question is how many people do you think their team is individual group full blown large company? So let me go. I'll go first. I'll I'll show you how I did my math. So what I did, what I had jotted down this was jotted down this morning. So it might be different is the 20th. The highest ranked person that's public is 20 approximately 25th and they have two million in profits. And the 50th person has about one million in profits. So and the hundred has 100 person has about 600 K. So let's just, you know, run that down. Call it 500 K. So that means like every time you half the number of people, you double the profits, which in general is like a relationship I would expect. It's not going to be linear. It's going to like be something like that, like some sort of 80 20 type thing. And so what I did is I said, all right, we got a half down from from 25 to to one. And so that's roughly what five jumps or so. And like a little less than five, I guess, doing math here live. So that would put you so that they're going to be like, you know, that's two to the fifth or so, two to the four and a half call it. I'll just use two to the fifth because I can do that in my head. So that'd be 32 times two million. So my my estimate is my my crew estimate would be 64 million. My guess is it's actually higher than that would be my guess because I'm guessing there's like power law dynamics even beyond like the top 100 like I'm guessing that going from 30 to 100 is more clustered than going from 30 to first almost certainly I would think. And so my floor would be 64 million. I would go, you know, I don't know how much higher than that, but maybe like 25 50% higher than that. I could be so off. But that's if I was if I was getting interviewed and they asked me one of these conceptual questions, that's how I would answer it. Yeah, you you would you would pass. I think I saw I had a screenshot of I think ballerina, kapitina, who like occasionally shows their piano. And they were I think they're like in like eighth with like they're like in ninth I think or something with like six or seven million or maybe a little more than that. So I think that kind of is about would pass. Is that too low? I think that would I think my estimate would be high then. Okay. Well, but like you're you're point on it. Yeah, so anyway, I'm not even I'm going to say that you're correct. I like 64. I was thinking yeah, I was I was really debating on whether I thought they they crossed a hundred or not. I think one thing we can agree on is the second part of the question, which is like they're very clearly not an individual person. And this would either be six account or jumps account or you know, whoever. Yeah, it would definitely be a team. I don't I don't know. I I'm not I guess I'm not certain whether it's yeah, I mean, I know I know of some some groups that like do this with you know, like more of a full-scale team. I'm not like huge teams, but more full-scale. And I imagine they're up there is not being shown, but yeah, yeah, it's certainly a team. I don't think it's feasible to do this. All right, vibe gambling. This is free of you because this is really just like your your issue here. Can you talk more about being anti-backtests? Are you leaving helpful information on the table? Yeah, so the the anti-backtests is not like anti-backtests in a vacuum. It's anti-backtests when you evaluate that compared to other things you could be doing with your time. I just don't I don't feel like it's the best use of time. Like I'd rather spend whatever if you're going to spend a day setting up like a beautiful backtests, I would much rather spend that day improving like like just doing things I think are going to improve the model or automating something or whatever. So it's just like to me a lot of work with generally low low ROI unless it's like something unless you like playing like you engulf like it makes sense to backtest to me because it's something you're going to be betting for like years and years or you want to. And so like setting it up once is like very helpful to evaluate like the change of models. So in that context it makes sense, but like if you're just like firing up some model on some market that you want to try and bet like I don't think it makes sense at all to backtest until you've been betting that for like a while and you know you want to like scale this and make it big. Like some random prop. I don't think you should ever backtest. It doesn't make sense. The prop could be gone by the time you set up the backtest. Right. Yeah, to me it's like that common sense like do you. I think what you said, it's all about trade-offs. And are you is this going to be something that's going to make you money or cost you money? And if you're spending half the time that the props available building your backtest then it's mostly likely going to cost your money. Yeah, I think that's a great point. I'm obviously pro backtest on some things, but I'm very much in your camp of just bet like in other things. Do you want to save the rest of the questions for next week? Because we have eight questions left. Yeah, why don't we save them? Yeah, that's a good idea. We appreciate the questions we will get to and we have some good ones coming up. Because I looked at them, I was like we could rush through them, but I don't like I think some of these deserve some answers. Yeah, let's for sure. That's a good idea. Okay, do you know I have a Bayesian update? Okay, why don't you give yours? Okay. So my Bayesian update is like I've kind of gone in and out of like whether I think meditation is is useful or not. And I was on like a long period of not doing it. And I think like probably because I didn't really feel like oh it's there's like this huge like magical benefit to it. But I've kind of flipped back because I've been so I'm like such a phone guy now and I feel like especially in this profession like you're getting all of this phone notifications and whatever. And I found like just to take like 10 minutes and just sit there. You don't have to do anything crazy. You could just literally sit there. It helps me like not like reach my phone on that that first buzz like I'm not like it there. It helps like create a little bit of awareness where I'm not like instantly like boom buzz phone hand like I'm like buzz. Okay, maybe I don't need it or like I'm I have a break or I'm not thinking about something for a millisecond. So I just take my phone out to look at it like it's helped me a little bit with that. So I'm back. I'm on meditation is like practically useful and it doesn't have to be like super magical or anything too special. But like it it brought it helps. So are you just like a sit there in meditator? Sorry if I missed that or do you do an app or what's what's the what's the GT? I'm a sit there. I have a meditation like bench or stool. It's like one of these little things that basically like it's just a really easy thing to sit on on a carpet. Anyone who's interested like look it up. It kind of just like rolls forward and allows you to sit in a very comfortable position. Before I was a big like app like track on calm and this is kind of part of the update is like now I'm just like if you just sit there for 10 minutes and just with your eyes closed and that's your expectation. That's your expectation like that's great. I'm like you know great job you know go on with your day and I don't know I've kind of changed my opinion. I think I used to think it was like something like really kind of like hoi toy D or whatever like something like really I don't know like special or something crazy supposed to happen. But now I'm just kind of in like I'm calling it meditation but really like sometimes it's just like I just sit still for 10 minutes and close my eyes and like it's quite hard. I think we all know how hard this is but it helps a little bit. Good. I've done it at different points in my life. I can share that it does seem to like slow down and make you less reactive. That's good. I guess I had a couple I was actually going to use this because it was related to what topic we've never gotten around to because it's health it's health related and sort of in line with yours. So I've used to be pretty into like some of the the health podcast like these days there's like so many like health influencers I would say like to do podcasts and stuff. And I know a lot of people are into like really into them. I've gone way less into them over the years and said take this with a grain of salt. I'm not the healthiest person by any means don't live the healthiest lifestyle. But the stuff that they that so many of them push is like so similar to sports betting tauts these days. So you tell you about like human pushing like AG one or whatever. I don't know. I'm not even going to get into it. Okay. So I don't want to name them. But okay. That seems like a you know like a very I don't know enough about AG one. There's like some obvious ones that I I can just look at and know are wrong. Like where the ones that really hurt me are like when people post things or talk about things that are such a clear correlation does any equal causation and they're missing some confounding variable. Because that's like it's very related to sports and know it. Well, it's like the idea you know like whenever a sports analyst says something like teams who run the ball 20 times like are undefeated. It's like or you know yeah it's because they're running the ball because they're winning or whatever. And but but in the health industry people do this all the time like this. The one I see all the time is like this obsession with with grip strength and like people talk about how how correlated grip strength is to longevity. And you have all these people like you know talking about how important is and getting these stupid grippers to increase their grip strength. I think it's going to make them live forever. It's like I'm not a I'm not a doctor. I'm not a scientist. Maybe that is true. I find it much more likely you know that being healthy and active and doing things is correlated with grip strength. And then those those healthy and active and doing things people live longer. Yeah, I know it improves grip strength is lifting weights with your head getting up off the being able to get not being in a hospital bed. So it's like it's such so much of it. It's to me is just like garbage of like yeah they not like this. I wish there was more people who understood like math and probability and statistics in science because it seems like like so many studies are like so poorly designed and and people would just like see like anybody who has an idea of sample sizes and these things like can see right through them. But they're like what's published and there the other the last part on this is like these health podcasts. I know they're they probably done a lot of good for a lot of people. So I don't want to be like too hard on them like I'm sure they've helped a lot of people. But like when you have to talk about something every week like we do. It's hard. It's hard to do. And in the health space there's not that much interest like. You know there's not that much interesting thing week after week and so they end up talking they end up emphasizing these things that really aren't important in my opinion. And so you know I can relate as a you know podcast. Yeah I was going to say that Cardi B. You know so they don't get a lucky Cardi B break like we do. I mean I've kind of decreased my I used to listen to like a lot yeah some health so I mean I like to be fair I like you remain I've learned a lot from him and I like that podcast generally so I'm not I'm not talking shit. He's actually I feel like he's actually one one of the good ones. They're all like clearly not good. This is just my you know personal. I was just saying that because I know I like I said something and I know people love him so I don't want anyone. You know me I'm trying to be as as uncontroversial as possible so I want no hot takes. Here we been whatever but yeah I think I've kind of decreased like I think once you it's kind of like you get into that. And honestly like maybe maybe people feel this way of thoughts but it's like how many times do I need to listen to somebody very smart talk about. One thing in different ways like I kind of get a lot from it initially and then and then last later unlike us like everybody as we do each we bring the kids to the beach. Anyway I don't know why I'm ending it on this note but we're different we're not like it sounds like a bad home in front of the past but that's all right. We keep going I mean look we have so many topics that we keep booting this well I think is a very good topic to someday we'll one week so you everybody find out shortly but uh yeah anything else for the for the audience. No thanks for thanks for all the questions apologize if we didn't get to it but we'll get to it next time. Yeah yeah if we didn't get to yours like we have it in the dark and it will be yeah carried over thanks everybody for listening and we will see you next week. [Music]