Super Bowl LX Player Prop Best Bets w/ Chris Dell & Mackenzie Rivers

We are live. What is up everybody? Chris Dell here joined by Mr. Mackenzie Rivers here to talk all things player prop betting for Super Bowl LX the big game however you want to call it Mackenzie I think are we allowed to say Super Bowl LX are we going to get sued now from the NFL? I remember when I worked very briefly at circus sports they would have the printed out sheets that said big game props I remember someone saying if it's printed it can't say Super Bowl 60 but audio we're just journalists we're just describing I mean we're not done lemon we're not going to get arrested we're just saying what the facts are and I'm pretty sure that's still okay okay I'll take you to work for now how are we how are we doing today Mackenzie we're about no less than 10 days away from the Super Bowl how you feeling man? I'm feeling very well this is a is Super Bowl I'm gonna be heading to it's my first radio row so if you're there come say hello I'll be there with better day with Scott Seidenberg you know shaking hands and kissing babies whatever I got to do and it's in my home it's not my hometown but it's where some of my family lives in San Francisco so I'll get to see my mom and maybe my uncle too or cousin I probably not or busy but I will get to see my mom out there and it's gonna be great I can't remember a Super Bowl where I didn't have like an emotional stake like the 49ers obviously that's my team care a lot about that when winning or losing and then when it was just the chiefs I always wanted to see Patrick Mahomes get another ring big big fan of his or Tom Brady I was a big fan of his wanted them to get over the finish line here it's just the facts just the non-biased numbers on the page and I do think they pretty they tell a pretty compelling story about what's gonna happen that I'm not sure is reflected in the market so a lot of opportunity yeah while I try to get these tech issues out of the way here sharing our screens want to make sure that's popping up correctly yeah I got the draft games tab up for now you know just looking at draft games for simplicity for a screen sharing here we're gonna go through our list of favorite props for the game talk about some just overall game script of betting strategies that Mackenzie's thinking based on some historical trends etc. I've got four best bets specifically that I want to talk about these are bets I gave out in our betting predators discord channel for NFL premium props subscribers I haven't looked to see if these lines have moved in my favor or against me since I gave them out earlier this week I think it was like Monday night or Tuesday I did them I just I couldn't deal with the thought of having no football for an entire weekend because it's been so long since we've had that so I was like I got to start grinding some some fantasy football some DFS and player props etc. but hey we're gonna look at the lines as it is right now Friday January 30th here 610 p.m. Eastern time Mackenzie coming live from the West Coast out in Vegas looking at here Seahawks four and a half point favorites over under 45 and a half Seahawks or big-time money line favorites minus 230 Patriots or plus 190 to win here at draft Kings we'll go position by position and talk our ideas on some of these prop angles but kind of just wanted to get the macro sense from you Mackenzie of like what you've been looking at you've been a lot of sides and totals you're really into betting systems trends historical data just kind of walk me through what you're thinking about this game and I know you mentioned you want to talk about things from a game script angle I also kind of want to like secondarily ask you like is it beneficial to do that or should we not try to corner ourselves into a game script specific betting strategy unless we have just a super strong take on a common picture thoughts overall on that my answer to that question or those back-to-back yes and no questions is yes and yes yes I think it's beneficial to think about what you think is going to happen in a game play out the script and think of all of the derivative props that are gonna result from that and yes we should be very very wary of pitching ourselves into a corner you know you you guys probably know the great Steve Fezick he kind of schooled me for the last six years since I've been working on from him in 2019 about Super Bowl bets and I think a great kind of microcosm of his thinking in a good way to think about it is parlay cards parlay terrible bets often they often they're not because although each of those like a Super Bowl parlay cards will be like how many stands are going to be how many third downs or conversions are they're going to be is it game to go over or under who's gonna win you know all those are on one card and individually their fair bets minus 110 you don't have an edge they price it accordingly but collectively they often work together so we would fill out parlay cards not saying I know what's gonna happen here the eight bets are gonna happen and we're gonna go eight no but we're saying if we if there's more first downs if there's more passing yards unexpected if there's a longest completion we like the over and the mark the book is not adjusting for that so you're able to find the game scripts that work for you and have a portfolio of bets that all might go in line to what you're thinking however you might be wrong I might be wrong maybe the Seahawks don't blow them out like I think is is a very real possibility but there are a lot of bets that if the Seahawks blow them out I love the bet and if it's a closer game or if the Patriots win the bet could still hit because it has an internal merit even though it kind of paints a picture with a lot of these other bets that I'm I'm gonna have so I don't think you we pigeonhole yourself you're not certain of anything nothing's guaranteed but I think you can build on different plays that work together if you think you have a good sense of what might happen now you're saying about the Seahawks possibly winning in a blowout are you just you're saying are you betting all your prop angles are you basing them off of that premise and that possible game script here for this match up I like the bet to be workable without it but I definitely landed on the bet with the idea of I think this is more likely than not and maybe not a blowout but I like the Seahawks to cover 52% 53% so that means the Patriots are probably gonna be trailing and the Seahawks gonna be ahead and it's not that it's not as simple as you know bet all the overs on receivers for the Patriots although I like some and bet all the and bet the rushing yards for the under but I do think given what they're good at what they excel at Patriots rush defense for example I think there's a lot of bets that are 50/50 if the Seahawks don't win or if it's not the game script that I think and then 80/20 if it's the game script that I expect you average it out and you have a profitable bet there maybe a 60% bet hopefully what do you think just match up wise here we'll get into the more prop specific angles position by position here in a minute what makes you like the Seahawks is it just the strength the schedule is at the defense is that the Patriots a little bit overrated what are you seeing on your end other than just the four and a half points Fred I think it's the offense we talked all year had the ram to the best team in the league and they had been and why was that they didn't have a top five defense but the most consistent thing in football predictions is how do you pass the ball when you need to pass it and how do you stop the pass when you need to stop it and the Seahawks excel at both of those things and Sam Donald turning into a pumpkin was a worry of mine for much of the season as recently as a couple weeks ago I think he's turned the corner where he doesn't need to be Superman but he can match the MVP like he did last week and Matthew Stafford throw for throw because they have so many advantages teams are allowing him to have one-on-one matchups with the best receiver in football this year JSN and he's able to execute that he's going to be playing in San Francisco where he played for a season where he's played three times this season or two times this season he played the Niners for quite three times but two times in San Francisco I think everything sets up to be very comfortable the Patriots for all they do well defensively as far as their second theory stopping the run they don't get a lot of pressure and Sam Donald I think is one is a is a top 10 quarterback and I think he shows it here yeah I mean I think with the Patriots the thing I get stuck on a little bit here is how can we judge their defense first month or two of the season they were probably near number one in the league in their run defense then they lost Milton Williams they were up they lost Robert Splane and they were giving up a lot of production on the ground now these two guys come back right at the end of the regular season now we've seen in three playoff games the Patriots look again like one of the top run defending units in the league so I I'm a little worried about the Seahawks having running success like we saw Kenneth Walker have a little success some big runs against the Rams in the conference championship right we saw obviously the week before where they really just exposed a really bad 49ers run defense so I think with the with the Patriots side of things there's a couple things I'm looking at for the Seahawks offense where I think the Patriots run defense is here to stay and I think they're legit also I also think at the same time not to get too far ahead so I want to talk about quarterbacks first but I think at the same time Zach Sharman ain't going out I think a lot of people are gonna be wanting to bet Kenneth Walker props for this game right he's the fourth highest favorite or almost he's tied with Jackson Smith and Jigba on draft Kings for when it's super 1vp it's it's both quarterbacks Darnal first May 2nd then JSN or JSN and plus 5/50 Kenneth Walker at plus 6/50 so very close third and fourth there the fourth favor is from Andre Steven so you got to go all the way to 25 to 1 for the fifth Super Bowl favorite but there as well so I think there's some interesting angles to exploit there and before we get into quarterbacks I wanted to ask you this because it's something that is a very common topic of discussion for Super Bowl prop betting specifically is when should you bet my thought the general consensus I think is like and I probably said think this more than I do now is like okay if you're gonna bet any overs bet them right now bet him right away because the public's gonna drive them up right if you want to bet under's wait until the end but what I've seen at least the last couple years is like certain under is you actually do need to bet early because if the right type of you know the right type of website cohort gives out a pick and it's on an under I think that under is going to stay down as opposed to the public driving it back up so there are some under that I bet already just kind of want to see your thoughts in the time of the things under verse over etc. Yeah last week I know we're gonna get into running backs but talking about Kenneth Walker I think it's a great example of I really respect Clint Kubiak I thought in New Orleans he was excellent and he just you know had Derek Harvey injured and that was the end of their offensive viability but last week Kenneth Walker goes over his rushing prop in attempts 19 attempts but he only gets 63 yards I think it's important for the Seahawks to stay on schedule 49ers are often in this bucket where we don't seem that efficient but the fact that we're able to get second and six allows the playbook for Clint Kubiak to expand so much that they're able to to perform so I agree with the Patriots Rush defense I think Kenneth Walker Michael under is rushing prop and I still think the Seahawks roll I mean last week they beat the Rams by four but they really beat them by more than that because they had a free touchdown give it against them because of a penalty the unsportsman like conduct and then this happens a lot which I don't think people recognize they ended the game with a drive in the Rams territory they were taking the ball from their own goal line all the way and they maybe scored a touchdown would easily got in the field goal but they didn't have to they took knees so 20 31 27 on the board versus maybe the best team in football the highest football by Nethlow or a bunch of anti-cook websites they really beat like 10 to maybe even more 10 points so I think I was a huge data point and the Patriots up it they very much disappointed I know they got the win with a blocked field goal and a fourth down conversion and all that but I think if anything you downgrade the Patriots from last week so I think this line would have made sense before the playoffs but in the playoffs the Patriots have a plus 1.5 EPA net the Seahawks plus 0.29 translation Seahawks have been twice as more efficient with I think more difficult schedule especially last week against the Rams you right exactly what are you thinking in terms of just like quarterback play I'll I put the defense first position chart up here but let's go back to the odds board let's start quarterback let's start with general Super Bowl MVP discussion will quit before the passing props Sam Darnold plus 125 Drake May plus 235 obviously those prices are a little bit better than the money line odds for those teams that went out right do you see any value on the quarterbacks or just in general when it comes to Super Bowl MVP which is a position that quarterback usually takes that award home yeah I like Sam Darnold I it's I know some people said JSN would have been the MVP of the conference championship game I disagree I don't think there are many times the quarterbacks can have no picks three touchdowns three hundred yards and not get the MVP so I think the odds are a little bit off there where the Seahawks are 65% to win the game just by the money line odds and Sam Darnold's only give if he if he caches more than 40% of the time you're profitable I think it's a little bit closer it should be a little bit closer in line so I'd make Sam Darnold like a minus 110 favorite I think there's value there what do you see in terms of like someone who wants to bet both can you be profitable in that scenario hey I want to bet Sam Darnold and JSN because I know the Seahawks are gonna win is there any EV to be had there I'm not sure it's better than minus 230 especially because there's the old I mean who won the Seahawks first Super Bowl MVP it was a linebacker right with the pick six I think that's always a possibility so you're probably gonna be all right but if you really like the Seahawks you could bet minus 230 you know or shop around and get a better number at a exchange or something yeah because there's always that blacks one event possibility where somebody else gets it or a good lock 75 to 1 I would like to see that scenario right Ed Darnold gets hurt on the first drive of the game and Drew lot comes in and throws three touchdowns they they're still gonna get into the quarterback or Kenneth Walker has a huge 200-yard game we just don't know but yeah I mean it's an interesting thought there I think that if you want to bet like you said I would rather just bet the money line there or just bet the spread as well as split those two bets up if you really have conviction in the Seahawks here I don't I don't really have like a really strong take on the spread or the total as of right now that is do you see any possible line movement with either these or do you think these numbers are pretty much set through next Sunday because of where the spread is at I don't see a lot of line movement we've seen some fives pop up but if it was five and a half or four and a half you're not going to get like a big whale off the couch because of that move it's it's it's not going to be six and it's not going to be three so it's going to be in this Vegas zone as Bill Simmons dubs it so don't see a lot of lot there I'm kind of surprised the totals tick down from 46 and a half to 45 and a half I think if anything I the Seahawks defense has been a little disappointing this playoffs and their offense has been a lot better than expected so I kind of lean to the over there it wouldn't be surprised that we saw some money come back and push it back to where it started yeah 100% I just want to pull up here I have the defense versus position rankings for fantasy adjusted points a lot a lot of different websites have them I'm using establish the run for that a great fantasy website for DFS and analytics etc I just want to kind of pull up as we go through I know you had some thoughts on Drake may hear McKenzie based off the game script that we talked about sort of like kind of highlight this as we get into it looking at the Seahawks defense obviously we know they're one of the elite defenses and when you look at quarterbacks against them you know minus 3.6 points for game lower than average compared to a normal defense running backs minus 5.2 wide receiver minus 3.8 the only positive you see here is actually for tight ends against the Seahawks and we'll talk a little bit more about that later as we get to the tight end position it's very similar actually for the Patriots like not as strong in terms of negatives there but minus 1.9 minus 0.2 for running backs minus 1.5 for wide receiver the only positive again is with tight ends so maybe there's some value as well on Seahawks tight ends in this position if you think they're going to need to throw a decent bit here but I know you just for a strength of schedule on a set list for strength of schedule so this is something where look I mean this is the entire season I think if we specifically sampled out the Patriots in the early part of the season or Milton Williams only games you're gonna see a lot stronger negative DVP on the running backs there but it's still somewhat neutral because they were pretty bad at defending the run when him and his full aim were both out so like these are just a guide like it's not a end all be all with betting props like McKenzie said I think GameScript plays just as much sometimes if not more than a factor compared to these defenses first first position rankings overall but again just kind of using them as a guide here I know draft Kings doesn't have everything upside I want to pull up player props on Fandall to see if we can get something a little bit better here I don't know if you see McKenzie or I might have to pull up the odds and works and I'm in a trouble seeing a lot of just over under bets specifically on on quarterbacks all I'm seeing here is just like the adjustable number I'm not actually seeing like an actual menu of over under props to make it's very telling that they do that instead of saying Sam Darnold over 228 and a half under 228 and a half they'll be like here you can bet plus 230 plus 102 or 245 because they want you to bet overs in general if every better takes the lazy approach and says this amount of yards more they're able to hide more big I look at draft Kings that you do have to scroll past the a little bit less positive VV bets to get to the over under but yeah that's what I'm looking at right now usually it's there but on my end I'm not seeing anything below just like the adjustable line yeah yeah scroll to the right it's it's like the it's after interceptions okay I'm seeing passers oh pass yards oh oh you know what they changed up the menu they're hiding yeah because normally you go to passing props and it's listed all vertically okay see see and that's a that's another thing too is the way some of these websites display the actual odds like you said I mean that's already cock erotic man that's already sketchy with what they're doing there so okay so I can what what I'll do is I'm just gonna pull this up real quick because this is what I do when I go through looking for the best lines and there's a million other websites like this too I'm just I'm just using odd gym it doesn't have everything obviously you got a shopper on manually sometimes but let's look at Drake May and personally I like to think sometimes it's not always this way that Caesar's usually has pretty sharp lines for props so I always try to see like where their medium is like they're at 225 to 25 and a half minus four minus one 14 both ways if you scroll over here a little bit you can see draft kings and fandal are also both there so we'll stick to 225 and a half for now what are your thoughts on Drake May passing props in this game Mackenzie I lean to his over there are some patriots passing props I like more wouldn't mind a bit on the over I am kind of worried he's gonna have a lot of dropbacks but run a lot maybe or maybe it's just one of those four D to eight games like we saw the last time the CX were in the Superbowl because it goes I don't think the Patriots are gonna be super successful but I do think they're gonna be behind and the Seahawks in this playoffs I get the Matthew Stafford through for 350 plus and Brock Purdy I know he went under his prop but he really had zero yards in the second half because they're tied in went out they're back up tied in not George Kittle but the other guy and Christian McCaffrey went out and they they just ran out of bodies and they just weren't good at thing offensively but I knew it no this because I had Brock Purdy over but it was well on track to go over the lower number I know Drake Mays thrown through for ADR last week and he threw for under his prop against the Texans but against the chargers who are fairly good defense five and number five and total defense he threw for 270 I do think he I don't think he like forgot how to play football or he's super scared of the moment or anything I think it's just kind of the game scripts of those games that made him go under so I kind of I kind of like him over less because I think they're gonna be super effective but more because I think they're gonna be down in the game early yeah I would definitely look at possible pass attempts over for Drake May just pulling up this graphic here again from establish the run.com obviously you look at the recent games for Drake May you know 29 against LAC down to 27 against Houston down to 21 obviously the weather game there in Denver and then the last two games that close the regular season blow out wins mind you against the Jets and the Dolphins 21 and 18 so you're like how could the line be 30 and a half year when you look at the numbers overall I mean Patriots top five in neutral situation pass rate over expectation metrics for the season you look at the last four weeks their borderline there their top three in that at 2.1 plus percent over and then just overall for the season they're right there in the top four so whether you look at neutral situations overall for the entire season the last month specifically when they when they're in these neutral situations like score within a touchdown or less they're throwing more than your average football team and I think what we've seen is that Seahawks have a great defense overall like there's not one specific way where you're like oh they're weak here throw against them run against them they have a great run defense as well but we've seen the Rams and what they did and they went extremely pass heavy against the Seahawks defense nothing against their corners their safeties but I think what we've seen is when you have an electric talented offense like the Rams who they're not they're in the same kind of bucket as the Patriots here in terms of their pass rate over expectation metrics they want extremely pass heavy and I think in competitive games like you look at what the Patriots have done they've gone very pass heavy as well before that last that last kind of four game stretch of the season you see the game against Buffalo against Baltimore excuse me 28-24 Drake may 44 pass attempts and a four point win look at the New York Giants they won that game by two touchdowns more and two touchdowns 31 pass attempts the week before six point win against the Bengals 35 pass attempts before that 34-31 so we had a four game streak five out of six games where we are well clear over this 30-and-a-half pass attempt mark so I have a pretty strong lean to Drake may over pass attempts for this game especially when we think about the other side of things where maybe the Patriots can give the Seahawks a little bit of struggle early in the game maybe Kenneth Walker continues to be inefficient not hitting the holes the right way where we could see a lot of short drives and punts which is going to put the ball back and Drake may his hands and the more we have incomplete passes etc the more the clock is going to stop the more we're going to get opportunities for pass attempts whether it's in a close game or whether it's in a game where the Patriots are trailing or combination of both so I like kind of where your heads at with that I definitely wouldn't look to bet may passing unders in this game unless you were maybe thinking about like a touchdown under which those are kind of props I tend to stay away from in general they're very fluky and hard to predict anything else Mackenzie like touchdown wise like what I what I mentioned there like just touchdown props in general that's usually an area we don't really talk about too much but is there anything quarterback wise touchdown in general or any other passing ideas you had yeah so there is a prop that I heard and I'm just gonna give you what I know I won't give you the the source of it but bowl for the backs to go under their passing yards in the first quarter Josh McDaniel's is man isn't what is ninth Super Bowl a lot of zero zeros in a Super Bowl history with two first time Super Bowl participants and with coaches that probably are gonna want to you know feel themselves into the game I do think we get an under in the first quarter under seven and a half and I do think it's 51 and a half for May 46 and a half for Darnell in the first quarter I think we could get you know three three and outs with some runs in there and it's not even be close so you got to shop around for those they are out there again on draftings they have you can go over first quarter props I don't see the first quarter prop under on on the draft Kings that's for a reason because that's probably the value they want you to not see yeah yeah here you got that oh we're gonna die more and we're gonna do another Super Bowl props more game prop episode Sunday night there'll probably be released by Monday morning at the latest so stay tuned for that as well betting predators dot com and better day dot com well let's go to running bets first before we get into we'll kind of combine why receiver tight ends here again looking at draft Kings Oz I'll pull up the odds jam once we get a more specific bets as well and actually let me do that real quick before I forget because I just want to pull up we talked about the pass and yards for a second and we can actually see here like if we want to bet Drake Drake may over well right now you talk about 225 and a half if you have access the bet rivers maybe you can find this 214 and a half minus 117 over even even money to 19 and a half or MGM here as 219 and a half and minus 140 over so make sure to double check and get the best price there yeah because I only 14 and you design sense that's that's a good deal 100% and like maybe bet rivers isn't your state but maybe you have other books that are similar to bet rivers they might be able to get a different number on you know you could take hey I want to bet three or three yards less but you got to pay minus 140 there's obviously a reason for that but usually there's one or two books you can find a significant I think this far ahead at least you can find some of those edges where maybe bet rivers isn't at this 214 and a half by next weekend when we're getting closer to kick off there I just want to bring up pass attempts real quick here because you know passing attempts is something that I think I got to go through and do my year in review for myself to see like not just what my overall record was because we are up this year but specifically I think personally if I had to gut guess like I think that my most profitable bet this year has been pass attempts for quarterbacks and it's game script man like don't I think my favorite prop to bet McKenzie if I just had to blind bet something every week is like give me the biggest spread of the week and give me the favorite quarterback passing props under right and I think we've really done well targeting those situations of like 13 and a half 14 and a half anything like double digits or higher but in this case you can inverse them a little bit like hey I you know the Seahawks are already four and a half point favorites I actually think they should be favorite a little bit more maybe you look at Sam Darnold under his passing attempts maybe that's an angle and as you as you see here even some books already have that we see a little bit of a flip flop here 30 and a half you can get minus 140 at MGM Sam Darnold for under under pass attempts at 29 and a half you get a little bit of a different number there I wouldn't look at Drake May overall because this is what I was talking about earlier with Caesar's for example we're seeing slightly juiced over 30 and a half but you can bet over 29 and a half for a better number possibly depending on where you're looking at even trackings as a 29 and a half minus 145 I can't tell you exactly where you draw the limit for some of these in terms of betting one number versus the other versus how much big you have there but I think as much as I can I want to try to get the best number slash price even if I'm not betting all in the same place just be sure to shop around there but let's talk about running backs here for a second you know I don't have any best bets on quarterbacks yet but that is the bet I like most right now is the Drake May over pass attempts on a McKenzie Leane Strong to over pass yards from a as well I have four best bets McKenzie and three of them are running backs let's go we're about to get into the best part of the show right here I kind of alluded to it earlier I think there is a big difference in the Patriots run defense first the last three months versus the last three weeks and once we saw Milton Williams and Roberts delaying come back it's made a huge difference I also think that there's a little bit of like a kind of like the casual better misconception of just how I don't want to say good but how efficient Kenneth Walker actually really is I think the thing you hear constantly in fantasy is like oh like it's extra many just go away and like Kenneth Walker should get 30 touches he's so electric with the ball in his hands and look like if you want to make a highlight real of Kenneth Walker right first Zach Sharman a like it's night and day like you want Kenneth Walker's highlight day but Zach Sharman a he's out for the year so he's not going to play in this game but he was much more efficient in terms of hitting the holes when you needed to be in much more efficient in terms of converting inside the 10 carries in the first downs in the touchdowns which is why we saw Kenneth Walker really really be more of not just a rotational back but an in between the 20s type of back like once you get in the red zone once you get closer to the 10 or closer to the end zone you're seeing Zach Sharman and there's a it's not just luck that he had so much more touches and touched them in that area of the field and it's because Kenneth Walker often opts for the let me try to juke you instead of getting those two or three extra yards so it's you could see that 10 15 yard plus game or you could see that negative three negative four yard loss but that's without saying that Kenneth Walker is going to get a lot of touches in this game what I I like Kenneth Walker under 75 and a half Russian yards that's what I gave out earlier this week looks like we have some positive movement in that direction we see at Caesars right now they're slightly juiced under but at 74 and a half so we already lost the potential yard on that bet I certainly think it's still better I think that the Patriots run defense is a lot better than the Rams and when you saw like let's just take a look at what Kenneth Walker has done let's say over the last month or so some games with Walker some games without obviously against San Francisco I don't even care what happened in that game because anyone was running all over passing all over the 49ers defense over the last few months of the year except for the Eagles right like the Eagles were just gonna play like crap against anything right that's why they got rid of the rules yeah yeah and that's why I want to throw that Eagles game all the 49ers need to show it so so much improvement I just don't think that's the case I want to look at the fact that okay in two regular season games against the Rams Kenneth Walker 16 carries 67 yards then in the overtime game in December 11 carries for a hundred yards right then they played the San Francisco 49ers twice he had 97 and 116 but let's look at the other games here Carolina in week 17 15 carries 51 yards 3.4 yards per attempt very similar line against Rams in the last game to cover championship 19 carries 62 yards 3.3 yards per attempt even before that Rams overtime game about nine carries for 17 yards against the Colts 10 carries for 29 yards against the Falcons 13 for 56 against the Vikings so we're seeing like they're again there is a big reason why he was not the workload workhorse monster fact that we wanted to see and fantasy and then we look at what happened in the conference championship I just want to pull this tab up real quick from ff just offensively like when I was watching that game I'm like man George Hullani is playing a lot of snaps like I thought Kenneth Walker was gonna be on the field every single down because like you even though Hullani might be a better pass walker Hullani might be a better receiver he might run routes better you figure Kenneth Walker is still going to be on the field for the majority of the game we really only saw like a 60 to 40% split 42 overall snaps for Kenneth Walker 23 snaps for Hullani looking the passing game they were on the field for the exact same amount of passing snaps 17 for Walker 17 for Hullani it was the rush same amount of targets for right a exact one of targets and that makes me think like with Kenneth Walker like yes we're getting a guy who's gonna get probably all the running back carries but not all the running back touches not all the running back snaps God forbid if this game script goes against you and the sea oxygen trailing at all he might be off the field for a while so I think there are some scenarios here we're early in the game if it's low scoring we might get some decent third down long down in distance two minute drills and the half I think you're going to see George Hullani on the field for a majority of those snaps especially this was Hullani's first game back off IR in like two months and they just threw him back in look again played since week 11 and he got his most snaps of the entire season and I think that's a big tell here for what we expect his role to be versus Walker's that's a long-winded way of saying that that's why I like Kenneth Walker under the rushing yards because that also is another route to an under in this game other than just hey the Patriots run defense is really good I like it a lot I'll give credit to my buddy Scott Sidenberg George Hullani over receiving yards he gave it out at nine and a half I'm now seeing ten and a half juiced over but if he's gonna run the same amount of routes he's essentially having a starting role he had 27 yards last week even if you wanted to do a fun like little two play prop I don't think you go oh and two no matter what happens kind of game script agnostic I think Kenneth Walker under his 20 and a half George Hullani over 10 and a half if they're throwing a lot you might split out that way if they don't need to throw it all you might split out that way but I think you're much more like to go two and oh if you go under Kenneth Walker receiving yards over Hullani receiving yards and I'm with you on the on the rushing yards in general again 19 carries if he gets 19 carries and goes 3.3 yards per carry like he did last week he'd be the most successful running against this Patriots defense all playoffs by far they've had 49 rushing back carries against allowed so that's barely over two yards per carry I don't think that's noise we have pretty good ample size with a their full complement of rush defenders back the Patriots also do allow an above average amount of running back receptions and running back targets against them so teams are offing the throw to the running bags rather than handing off to the running bags and even though we could see that continued split in the passing down snaps it doesn't mean Kenneth Walker won't get targets either like he's electric with the ball in his hand so they they will throw to him my biggest gripe with that is like if you're the Patriots and you're their defense coordinator you're you're on the field playing defense there like it's it's a tell like when Walker's on the field like you know he's not past blocking right so I don't think the I think the Rams fumbled a little bit not realizing that in that last game where they could have maybe made some more stops at least a few more that they needed late in the end there to where the Patriots might not make the mistake with the extra weeks in between with Mike Raeble at the home of that defense he's got that Super Bowl experience and that's one area like before we move on here to the past catchers like what do you think in terms of that McKenzie like defense wise Raeble Josh McDaniels they had the Super Bowl experience how much does that matter against the 38-year-old Mike McDaniel on a relatively new coach you sat here for Seattle the big game I think you got a factor it in I mean a lot of first-time quarterbacks have beaten Josh McDaniels like Doug Peterson did I mean coaches and offensive play callers so I don't think it's like all right there's some situations in sports where I think experience is everything like NBA playoffs I generally think you're gonna get kicked in the teeth before you excel you got to you know not get the door before you kick it down the Super Bowl I think it's a factor but it doesn't get me off the seahawks on the side I got say anything rushing for you or do you want to move on to the receiving props no let's move on to the receiving props all right sounds good so we got we actually know what I almost passed over my other best bet there so Kenneth Wilder said yeah yeah but the thing is they're running backs but they were receiving props for the running backs so but I almost skipped over one and to me I actually amended to see where this line has moved since we gave it out I and this is as of Tuesday when I gave this out this was my favorite of the group it's almost too easy and look there's nothing there's no such thing as a too easy prop that or bread in general to make but I really like Treby on Henderson under five-and-a-half rushing attacks you know it's just simple like we came into the year with such high expectations for trading on Henderson to be the Patriots star running back starting running back right out of the gates we saw a big delay in that we were all pissed off at Rae Bull like oh he's giving to Rel Jennings more carries he's giving Ramondra Stevenson and Stevenson has all these fumbling issues but as we've seen over the last month really and it's gone more and more in Stevenson's favorite lopsided snapwise and touchwise as we get deeper into the playoffs look at last week Stevenson 60 snaps overall Treby on Henderson played four snaps and he had to get six carries and four snaps it's hard to get six carries and we have a much tougher matchup on tap here then we do it yeah I know Denver's defense was good but when you look overall the Seahawks run defense is right up there with them and I just don't see a path especially as four-and-a-half point underdogs the Patriots were favored in that game like that's a game where Treby on Henderson is going to get more rushing attempts and we just haven't seen it and the fact is he's a rookie he's been notably struggling in past protection even though that was a strength as in college a little bit different at the pro level and hitting the holes just like we talked about what the coach is giving more favor to Zach Sharman avers Kenneth Walker we see the same thing where Mondra is the bigger back they trust in the game the yards that they need as opposed to the explosive plays we saw occasionally this season but as a whole we'll trade out Henderson has really been inconsistent other than that month in November and early December when Stevenson was hurt we seen now in three playoff games nine carries for 27 yards against the Chargers and you see the snaps and rushing attempts really kind of plummet in that overall 26 snaps in the wild card game 25 snaps in the divisional playoff round game and then four snaps again so I don't think it's gonna be I don't know if it's going to be as extreme but what I do know is in the highest leverage spot of the season you've got the experienced coach like Brable the experienced offensive coordinator trust means everything here and Ramondra has played good this isn't just up like oh what are you doing you're keeping your most explosive player on the sideline you know Ramondra has been explosive in the opportunities that he's gotten over the last couple months and in the playoff series well and you just look at his overall snap count back from week 18 28 40 40 and then 60 overall and we see the running snaps go up the passing snaps essentially remain the same they trust them more as a route runner they trust the more in short distance running games and then they also trust the more in past blocking as well it's it's like what reason do you have at this point to put Travian on the field other than just giving Ramondra a breather and the reason why Travian got those 12 carries against the Texas is because Ramondra missed like almost an entire half with that eye injury and then once he got back in the game he stayed in the game so I did I don't want to overthink this one I think we've seen the coaching staff show us over the season that they prefer Ramondra Stevenson and in the most important game of the season last year they went all in and I really don't expect that to change here unless Stevenson gets hurt I totally agree I hadn't considered this pick to be honest but on five and a half seems like a wrong number because of the number I had been looking at was his rushing over under which was 17 and a half yards he gets six attempts he should get you know any running back should be expected to get 18 yards so it it's almost seems like a mispriced number if you are were if you have a huge position on under five and a half yeah maybe sprinkle over 17 and a half you could get one or two carries and go over that number and you can easily catch both and if he gets more than five and a half times you're probably definitely catching the 17 and a half on the yards yeah so we've gotten line movement in our favor so two for two for our early bet so far I gave it out at under five and a half rush attempts at mgm minus 125 mgm here and obviously I'm now has minus 155 so we get 30 cents of movement in our favor I like that a lot and I agree like I think I looked at the rushing yards and it's like what would you say 16 and a half 17 and a half yeah yeah you know trading on it is like he's like a mini kind of walker to me he has the explosiveness he can hit the edge but Seattle isn't a team you hit the edge with success against you want to get those yards that you need you want to convert those first downs you want to protect the football and Mandry Stevenson hasn't had any fumbling issues in a while I think that issue is kind of behind him at least for now obviously that could be a factor again like it maybe in Mandry we've seen them even after Mandry's fumbled early in the season they still put it back in and trust them because he is that bigger back than get those short yardage gains through the holes get those smart yards and have that vision I think trading on the struggle a lot with his vision in the running game other than those big explosive plays so again I still think there's value here on the under five and a half even if you have to pay the minus 150 price just given the matchup given the game scrap given the recent trends and usage that is my second favorite bet we'll move on to my third best bet we'll move to receiving here but we'll stick to run receiving here for a second ago this receiving on draft games I like Ramandri Stevenson over his receptions and I just want to get the right tab pulled up receptions over guys they're really making this hard to find I know our minds me the family guy where he just comes up and says here just take the money do you want to make a bet no just just take it right very hard for you not to make bets here it is one so okay so let's see we gave this out over two and a half receptions at bet rivers minus one thirty seven for Ramandri Stevenson let's see what we're at right now I just want to check this I'm saying two and a half for catches yes two and a half minus one thirty seven at bet rivers so a little bit of movement in our favor from minus one thirty seven to minus one forty eight I would recommend getting in on this now because this is one of those overs where if it becomes a popular over or even just an over in general I think you're gonna see more often than not it's gonna move more to the over you'd have to pay a heftier price tag on that you know the same reasons I brought up I have the offense of snaps here I just want to pull up the receiving snap for Ramandri Stevenson let's look at what he has been doing in the passing game since week 17 at New York Jets five targets week after that blow out against Miami doesn't need to catch the ball much then let's look at the playoffs four targets three catches against the Houston Texans four targets four catches the reason I like this is because the Seahawks actually allowed the most running back receptions in the league all year and I just expect Ramandri Stevenson to be on the field for these passing snaps as we saw in the split before between him and Henderson I don't expect him to have much success on the ground even though I certainly could see him getting upwards of like 15 plus carries in this game but I do like him as a safety valve here we look at the receiving yards he has been explosive in the passing game in certain spots 55 receiving yards week 17 75 receiving yards in at a big catch in the wildcard game against a good Chargers defense as well I like that trend here to continue I think we have to throw this game out of the two target zero catches like the last game in Denver was all about the weather and I don't think we're gonna see anything close to that we don't have any weather concerns here I would look more here at this trend from week 17 through the visual playoff for straight games you know four plus targets in three of those games he went he hit the over in this in three out of the four games the only game he didn't hit the over was in a blowout winning against the dolphins where he still had two catches and was only one catch away so I I think they're kind of correlated in terms of the player usage and playing time snap trends is Henderson under five and a half rushing temps conversely Ramandri Stevenson over two and a half catches here and coincides with the script we're kind of I kind of said at the beginning and a lot of these bets coincide with it which is they're up big and Drake May is going over his past attempts and they're throwing and Stevenson's getting 80 percent of the snaps it's very easy to see him get it catching a couple balls out of the backfield I hadn't thought about those two running back props specifically but a hundred percent matchup with your thoughts on the game script and Seattle possibly getting covering this right here and winning by a touchdown or more absolutely any any ideas for you before I get into my final receiving prop for the sewer bulb against you have just receptions tight ends receivers etc yeah my favorite play on the board and it's moved a little bit since I first saw it at thirty seven and a half but Hunter Henry over thirty nine and a half and like you said a minute ago I'm not over complicating this the Seahawks have a great defense that if they have one weakness it's the tight end position we saw that last week I saw that against my forty nine years Jake Tundra just five catches for Finiards before you got her the first half so back up tight end was on pace for a hundred twenty yards versus in a game where the Seahawks were dominating so I see Drake May going to the comfortable area of the field which is the middle of the field against this defense Hunter Henry over thirty nine and a half receiving yards is still play I'd play it up to forty three and a half yeah we showed the DVP here they are bottom of they they allow they're inside the top ten in terms of most tight end targets allowed per game and we see that with the production here they are ninth worst in terms of schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends the season the Seahawks are obviously you need that safety valve over the middle right like in the slot etc and let's just look back here a little bit to what the Patriots did in their last game Hunter Henry you know we talk about like there aren't as many like true slot receivers wide receivers as there have been in the past a lot of teams like the rotate the receivers in and out of the slot and I'll just pull up the conference championship going on I know I said that really don't want to count that as much but we're just talking about the routes type of routes that we're not not exactly the production right because there was no production in the passing it right so but we still have a 62% slot rate for Hunter Henry two more slot routes then Stefan digs who would you would think would be their main slot receiver tomorrow Douglas really strictly a slot receiver would still had us a lower slot rate still ran five routes out wide here where 13 slot routes for Henry versus one wide that makes me like that even more still played seven in line as well which is he's obviously their main tight end when he's on the field and I'll just pull up the last game here as well to show this is something for Hunter Henry he's always at the tops the fun digs Hunter Henry tomorrow Douglas when you look at his slot rate throughout the season we've really seen this go up even more over the last month 62% 49% 47% 62% again we see a high 69% here back in week 15 so he's going to be in that short the intermediate area the field we're like you know what like let's try to beat up on this linebacker let's try to beat up on this safety because we don't really really trust testing their quarters as much because we see Hawks have elite quarters and the Patriots really don't have any elite receivers Stefan digs a little over the hell even though technically he still maybe is their best wide receiver so I do like that a lot he would be the guy be more most comfortable with in terms of betting and over in the receiving game for the new England Patriots let's see 39.5 we talked about looks like MGM might have depending on your state 37.5 - 115 400 Henry over that will bold prediction that 37.5 will not be there on game day so bet that now if you like it like me I think that trying to be at least 40.5 would be my natural I think so yeah right now I like that he's gonna be a probably a popular DFS play in the showdown slight format but I think for good reason I think even Austin Hooper could be a little sneaky there even though he hasn't played as much I just want to pull this up real quick but to go back to your point on the inline heart in line percentage that's a great stat because it's very easy to say all right he hasn't had 10 yards or 20 yards in the last two games yeah and Drake may also averaging 120 yards like more data it's it's always a catch 22 because more data is better than less data but recent data is better than old data so the year to date that is obvious he's averaging 45 yards per game the Seahawks one weakness is the tight ends and recent data yes he's not getting the yards but he is getting the usage that projects over this number yeah we've seen even looking at Austin Hooper who sometimes on the field at the same time as Hunter Henry other times he's mostly playing in line he has a 73% route rate in line versus just a 12% so we see the clear favorite as a slot receiver in general 400 Henry versus Austin Hooper as the more traditional inline tight end which I still think both areas of the field can work for the Patriots you know if I had to bet something on Hooper I don't think I will but I would certainly bet the over versus the under for him as well being just as the second string tight end there don't mind that at all I mean what's what's the Super Bowl MVP odds Austin Hooper I don't know but I can see it that would be at least like 50 I feel like 50 to one would be a terrible that got that I would have to be like a 200 to one that yeah I don't know if you're allowed to put odds as high as that they would need to be maybe is he is he here on the board anyway he's got to be because I see a lie yeah five hundred to one I think that's a fair not a bet I'd make with fair yeah not yeah yeah I want I kind of want to keep things simple here a little bit is I just want to bet Jackson Smith and Jigba over his receptions I gave it out over six nap catches at minus one twenty two I just want to pull up to see what updated numbers are here I think this is a number that only can go up I'd be very surprised and it went the other way looks at 15 cents in our favorites still the six and a half I don't think that number will move but I think the big will go up across the board here it's another one of those situations where like the scheme like they put Jackson Smith and Jigba all over the field like okay I know the Patriots have Christian Gonzalez he's a really good perimeter fence of back it doesn't really matter for the way clincubiac schemes up this Seahawks passing game we look at overall you know last year when we still had Tyler Locke and DK Meckhoff in town it was like okay we know JSN is purely a slot receiver we see last week even just against the Rams 41% still led the team in slot routes but still was primarily out wide 54% versus 41% and we've seen that over the course of the year like his slot percentage overall is not as high as you would think use a lot more in the intermediate to deeper parts of the field but can be deployed in the slot when they need them we've seen these elevated slot routes looking for like the midpoint of the season on down all the sudden we get to week 18 for the conference championship on the line and then the playoffs goes from 19% 13% 40% 33% 41% and that's the area as well we can beat the Patriots up a little bit through the air and I think that fits in really well with his route running and his just overall profile as a good slot receiver when you look overall obviously Cooper Cup does run a decent amount of those routes too so last week against the Rams 16 slot routes for JSN 10 slot routes for Cooper Cup we've also seen Cooper Cup's targets go up over the last few weeks in these playoffs so he's a kind of the secondary guy again that I would look to in terms of like if who else besides JSN would I want to bet over I would say Cooper Cup and then maybe to another extent over two and a half it's obviously pretty pricey here I think over three and a half per cup at plus 150 could be a decent plus money bet if you want to throw down a little bit if you want to talk about looking at same game parlay's etc. AJ Barner would be the other area I'd look and again we're seeing a pretty hefty price tag over two and a half catches for AJ Barner and again we look at the DVP Patriots don't give up as much title prediction but projected points but they are in a similar range here to the Seahawks 1.4 schedule just a fancy points allowed compared to the average defense so those are the other areas that I kind of like and are looking at for Seahawks receptions over and then just looking at what JSN has done in these types of situations like I think they're just going to continue to lean on him no matter what the matchup is like look if the Seahawks go up by 20 points kind of walker rushes for three touchdowns then maybe they don't need to throw JSN the ball very much but leading into the into the playoffs we see 7 7 8 9 and then 6 so we have 4 out of 5 to close the season 5 out of 7 overall when you include both playoff games it's interesting actually that both games against San Francisco or actually the only two games he's gone under in the last month and a half and that's because they were wanting all over them yeah had no middle of the defense without Fred Warner so everyone was throwing to their tight ends everyone was running against us so I don't think that is a de-married against JSN that he only had four targets three catches in that game they didn't need to they won by 35 points also the 22 22 22 rows bowl must be brought up his last before this one 347 yards receiving still a record in college football yeah I mean he could just he puts up monster production it's just absolutely he's a prime time player yeah it's just amazing with what like both the combination of just his personal improvement from last year to what Clint Kubiak's done to getting DK Metcalfe and lock it out of the routery out of the offense and just folks you know on him it's just I definitely didn't see it I'll tell you that much but I definitely will be buying him fine high on him in fantasy moving forward in dynasty and redraft next year as well he's gonna be the number one overall pick and a lot of fantasy drafts him in Pukinakoo almost a 1 a 1 b situation with B John Robinson right now depending on what scoring format that you're in but I do like JSN over the catch again you remove the two San Francisco games he has gone over this in five straight games nine plus targets in each of those five games the lowest catch count has been seven but if you look at the last last three non San Francisco games eight catches on 13 targets nine catches on 12 targets 10 catches on 12 targets so we're getting a minimum of nine catches in those games and six and a half catches here I like the over especially since we think Kenneth Walker could struggle with efficiency on the ground this might be where a lot of Seattle's points and yardage comes from at the end of the day I think even with the Seahawks cover it they might have a lot of success in the air in just a few splash plays and Kenneth Walker might have 25 attempts for 50 yards and they win 40 to 20 you know it follows my script that they're going to have success on offense even though I think it's going to be over in the fourth quarter there's a chance there's a chance yeah I think there's definitely some good correlation like you mentioned too with some of these picks I just want to recap real quick Stevenson for me these are my four bets that I like from Andre Stevenson over two and a half receptions JS and 6th and Jigba over six and a half receptions traviant Henderson under five and a half rush attempts Kenneth Walker under 75 and a half rushing yards Mackenzie Romani you like Drake May over passing yards and then Hunter Henry over receiving yards yes and a non-player prop but I also like as a best bet first quarter under seven and a half and I'm I'm gonna add in Halani over 10 and a half receiving yards yeah I think I think there's strong correlation there are strong trends pointing to that I like him as a DFS fantasy sleeper Halani for sure because don't be surprised if the Seahawks get to the one-yard line and Halani's punching it in versus Kenneth Walker he just becomes Zack Sharman a 2.0 right wouldn't be surprised to see that at all actually just want to check that now that we brought that up what is his touchdown number for one give me 20 to one let's go crazy it's not going to well plus 4.7.2.1 oh that's first store yeah how about two touchdowns at 50 to one the only Super Bowl before it was in the city to observe it was in Miami where trell davis was the MVP of the league and I'm sure all the props are on him and the full back what was his name Robert Griffith had two touchdowns two one-yard touchdowns because they didn't expect it so Clint Kubiak his I'm sure he was watching with interest his dad was the offensive coordinator of that team I could see two one of our touchdowns for Halani at 50 to one cash wow I did not know that last big bit there and that actually makes me yeah sure if you shop around you could probably find better than 50 to one on this by the way but maybe first touchdown too I don't know I haven't gotten to those like sprinkle fun Super Bowl bets yet I wanted to get my best player props out of the way I don't just to wrap this up it can be like for me I think at the end of the day if I want to bet like 20 Super Bowl props for fun these I want these four bets right I want my best bets to like at least make up what 80% of how much money I'm putting down here what are your thoughts on balancing bankroll air for all this stuff because these these Super Bowl cars can get very very massive at the end of the day as you know right because this is the last football we're going to get for a little while till the XFL or whatever comes up and here's about that so you want to separate the fact that you want to keep betting you want to keep looking at lines you have fun with it from the fact that value is a rare commodity and you're not going to have 20 crazy plus EV bets I think 80% a good number I might even go a little bit higher I might think you have five bets four or five bets that you love that you have 85% of your portfolio on and then you have a lot of fun money or mad money as Jim Kramer likes to say I like it I like it mad money yeah we'll talk about some more of those long shots here Sunday slash Monday when we get back on with Scott in the meantime Kenzie appreciate your time hopping on here you can always find the actually I don't know if you get I say it we can find you on Twitter yeah my face will be there and hopefully I'm not going anymore I think they took that down but I haven't been able to tweet for my Twitter count but hey it's still it's still my account it's as far as I'm concerned follow me and go to better day dot com I'm also writing articles there almost every day so you'll hear my voice there make sure to follow Mackenzie catchers content on better day dot com it does great powerings for the NBA great NBA picks etc we'll probably be back on to talk a little more NBA betting in the near future as well you can find me on Twitter as always at mad journalist that's MADD journalist with two D's catch all my content now at betting predators dot com a lot of changes to come on our website with our newsletter with our podcast feed etc but until until then we'll see you back here in a couple days with another player prop Super Bowl LX podcast episode Mackenzie I'll see you soon see you soon and have a good weekend and I'll let me know if you guys have any questions or if you want to know what I'm going to do