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Speaker 1Welcome into Betting Pros. This is the best bet show for Sunday night football, Baltimore Ravens versus the Atlanta Falcons. Tara Roberts here with Scott Bogman, and we are breaking down the game. For you, the betting market, talking through the trends, and giving you our favorite bets, and of course, same game parlay and final score prediction. I am not typically your Sunday night person, but I'm filling in for Welsh this week. So, Bogs, how you doing? You're going to hold us down for Sunday night, right? Because I'm not a Sunday night person, so I take no responsibility for what happens here.
Speaker 3I'm kidding. Oh, yeah, yeah, you're fine. Sunday night, I feel like Sunday night was pretty good, too. Sunday night was pretty good, too. Sunday night was pretty good, last week, so not bad. I got my two. Anyway, I had the Tedaroa McMillan over four and a half. I mean, he had that before halftime, and Bryce Young over one and a half passing touchdowns. Welsh was sweating. He did get his Darren Waller in the fourth quarter over. Unfortunately, he didn't get in the end zone because every ball was going towards Tedaroa McMillan. But yeah, another nice Sunday night, so hopefully we can continue rolling that out. Yeah, you guys crushed it.
Speaker 1I cannot believe there was that much of a sweat on the Waller one. That was supposed to be the layup, so that was something, as I was watching.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's just they couldn't cover Tedaroa, so everything was going his way. That's really what it ended up being. It was just, all right, if you're going to leave him open on every play, we're going to just keep throwing it to him, so.
Speaker 1Yeah, aggressive target funnel, and then the same game parlay. The only thing that didn't hit, unfortunately, was just that Chuba Hubbard under. Again, the Panthers just, I mean, the way that they were coming through from a passing perspective was incredible. So, you know, unfortunately, sometimes the game script happens that way, but we are talking about the Ravens and the Falcons this week, and it is an interesting game because we've got all these quarterback changes going on all around, and now we have this matchup where we are going to have Tyler Huntley in. quarterback for Baltimore, and that is making Atlanta a two-and-a-half-point favorite with a 43-and-a-half-point point total. But yeah, Atlanta is rolling, though. Last week, fantastic. Good win over a strong New Orleans offense, that's for sure. Defense, questionable. But Bijan, Bijan just continuing to roll. Brian Thomas Jr., fantastic game. Brian Robinson Jr., fantastic game as well. Three touchdowns. Another solid performance. from Michael Pennix. This is just a team that looks so different with him at the helm.
Speaker 3They really do, and there are some significant injuries on the defensive side for the Ravens as well. It's not just Lamar Jackson, which is obviously the biggest one you could possibly have, but Calais Campbell, still not practicing. Neither did Marlon Humphrey. Trey Hendrickson, still down as well. So, not looking good for the defensive line in the secondary of the Ravens, which is why we're going to have to wait and see. We're going to have to wait and see why this has pushed Atlanta to be favored here. I kind of thought Atlanta was going to win anyway, but I'm a little surprised that they're favored here. But the last two weeks have left kind of not many doubts here that obviously they're way, way better with Michael Pennix on their center. So, this is Pennix's team now. They're going to move as he moves, so hopefully he can stay upright because that's been his issue.
Speaker 1Yeah, we didn't bet the spread because, you know, us guys already have the spread on these. Yeah, we have whiffed on game script.
Speaker 3Our props have been fine, but we have whiffed on game script decently this year. So, that goes for Welsh and I as well. It just, you know, it doesn't work out the way we always think it does, but I'll take being right over being technically correct every single time because being right still wins money.
Speaker 1Exactly. If you had to lean one way, would you be comfortable with one team versus the other? It's such a slim margin because it's not as if Tyler, Huntley is so, I mean, usually they want to keep it to him being more of a game manager, but with the way that Zay is looking, Derek Henry, I mean, it's not as if this team is inept, so they can push back. So, while I do like the Falcons to cover, it's just so tight.
Speaker 3Yeah, and Tyler Huntley's got so much experience as well. So, you know, not something I completely, I wouldn't take a side here and I wouldn't lay or take points either. I would just take whoever I think is going to win on the money line. So, you eat a little more juice doing that with Atlanta, but because they're favored, but I would just take them straight up, take the money line on that. I'm not messing with this total at all. Not really sure what it's going to look like on the Baltimore side under Huntley because, you know, these guys that have started, sometimes they get out to a nice hot start and everything looks great like Case Keenum. Other times you look like Jack Strand. So, you know, there are some good beats to it and bad beats to it. So, I would just take the Falcons straight up because I do think they win this game at home.
Speaker 1What a season. Jack Strand. It feels like that was five years ago. It's like, oh, that was just like, that was just like right around the corner. Poor guy, too.
Speaker 3No business being in there and they put him in there, pick six to start. Like, just not a great way to throw him right under the bus, it felt like. But nothing was happening with Tua. So, glad Michael Penix is back and we have this offense moving in the right direction.
Speaker 1For everyone that isn't named Kyle Pitts. I can't even give you them because it's split so evenly down the middle. There is genuinely, the public is not taking a side. So, maybe that is the best recommendation of all. If the public is not taking a side and we're not taking a side, I mean, what can you really do there?
Speaker 3That's crazy. It is literally 50-50 on tickets and cash. I'm looking at the live right now. Exactly straight down the middle on both, which is just insanity. Like, I haven't seen both be straight down the middle. And that's, you know, that's a decent amount of bets as well as over 14,000 bets. Money line, tickets are on the Ravens, cash on the Falcons. So, split there as well. So, a slight lean on both of them. So, a little bit more cash on the Falcons than tickets on the Ravens, but fairly even as well.
Speaker 1Yeah. And before we move on to our best bets, I need to tell you guys about this new prediction. This is a new prediction market called PolyMarket. It is a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. And they're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $25 on your first trade when you deposit just $10. And now they have launched a new feature, squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is doing. So, download the PolyMarket app today and use FPPOD when you sign up. That is FPPOD to get $25 free after you deposit just $10. All right, let's dive into the bets. Boggs, hit us with your first bet.
Speaker 3Well, my first one, I don't know if it's actually available anymore, but because I'm not seeing it on the BP stuff. But yesterday, Derrick Henry's overall receiving yards was five and a half with juice of minus 107. So, it seems like it has vanished a little bit. Just looking at the with or without tool on Fantasy Pros, Derrick Henry with Lamar Jackson just doesn't see targets. He averages one target per game and two catches. But without Lamar in there, you know, who better to dump it off to than Derrick Henry if you're Snoop Huntley or anyone else. He is averaging one and a half targets and 11 and a half yards receiving. So, there's five and a half total. is way too low. I don't know. where it's going to go uh if it moves but if it's under 11 and a half uh that's that's probably where we're at because that is what he does right uh and he averages 13.1 yards receiving per game with huntley in uh versus just two yards per game with lamar so second most running backs targets this season have been giving up by atlanta 33 targets for 23 catches 110 yards in the fourth most receiving yards by running backs given up by atlanta as well so uh we know huntley likes to dump it off a little bit more to derrick henry and we know derrick henry when he gets two steps he's getting five yards he may be dragging four or five people down with him but two steps and that dude is getting five so um i think that if this is anything below 12 or 13 i'm taking it uh yesterday it was five and a half i do think you could still get it somewhere at five and a half i know at least one place had it open but um if it jumps up to anything like i said under 11 and a half i'm all over it still so uh derrick henry over on receiving yards in this game against the falcons if
Speaker 2you own a small business you know that dealing with the books is part of running the business you started because you had something you wanted to build but then you realize you got all these numbers you got to keep track of from accounting and payroll and payments and cash flow that's why i want to tell you about zero that's x e r o zero puts your accounting payments payroll analytics all in one connected platform it's great so you can get a clearer picture of what's actually happening in your biz you got visual dashboards reports forecasts to help you understand your cash flow zero can even provide ai powered insights to help make you smarter and make smarter decisions okay so it's easy to navigate but even easier to understand in fact 91 percent of customers are already using zero zero is easy to use and most things aren't more than five million customers worldwide are already using zero x e r o if you're a small business owner you're looking for a simpler way to stay on top of your finances it's time you try zero learn more x e r o.com a 91 claim is based on a 2024 zero survey conducted in the u.s the uk and australia every case has a
Speaker 4story every victim has a voice but will it be heard i'm nancy grace on crime stories we go beyond headlines to examine evidence challenge the story we're fed and pursue justice for victims and their families please join us at crime stories with nancy grace on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you find your podcasts hope you join us i'll see you there friend hey
Speaker 5everybody it's me w come out bell this season of my podcast who's with me i speak with two-time emmy winner and weirdly one of my best friends kevin avery everything up to that point build you as a comic us going on the road doing battle mountain and ely yeah you took me you were one of the first people took me on the road which is funny because at the time i was like i don't know if i like this guy with rapper actor
Speaker 6david diggs the jump off for me was hamilton and it was the most popular thing in a very long time but it was still the most popular thing i've ever seen in a very long time for me it was me and my friends making something dumb bruce lee's daughter and brandon lee's sister shannon lee back
Speaker 7to your initial point of stewarding my father's legacy and giving my energy to that you're lending your life to stewarding somebody else's life listen to
Speaker 5who's with me with debbie come out bell on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts i like it i
Speaker 1mean you said it perfectly you can't take the big man down once he gets going so as soon as he catches it he can in fact roll forward for that amount so i'm right there with you i'm gonna do my first bet here um you were not looking at the points i'm not gonna lie i am looking at him i am guys yeah um looking at the points and going over on 43 and a half but i'll walk you through it and my reasoning for it right because again this is a suspect situation with the change in quarterback right and oddly enough though games may be lower in pass volume but they aren't necessarily lower in scoring um huntley started two games last season again super small sample size right but um one had a point total of 46 the other was 65 change in offensive regimes obviously but same offensive playmakers baltimore's offense has been kind of all over the place in terms of team totals um two and two in terms of over under for this specific line this season but the majority of their games have been more so baltimore kind of playing around the line and they've been playing at a level of their competition very odd right and that's good news for the game script because atlanta's offense is in such a great rhythm so really this is less about pushing the over because of some intense belief in tyler huntley and more about the atlanta falcons offense being in such a great rhythm with michael pinnix they have scored a combined 70 points in pinnix two starts and obviously those have been against subpar defenses but as you mentioned the ravens defense unfortunately dealing with a lot of injuries yeah so i mean and they've been generally a pass encouraging unit as well so with all these injuries and everything combining up and now they face a team that is just hot confident and on a roll yeah 43 and a half there's a couple of different ways that we can get to this one so i do like the over they tempted me with that low line that is driven down by tyler huntley but michael pinnick's gonna pull us through and really bijan robinson right yeah yeah and i
Speaker 3don't i don't hate this uh total because it is low at 43 and a half and uh atlanta has been hot as you mentioned and like you said snoop is uh he's been there for a long time he knows exactly what to do when he comes in and you know he played a lot he may have only started a couple games last year but he played in a bunch because lamar was in and out with the back stuff so um yeah dude has a lot of experience so i don't i don't hate this one i don't know it makes me queasy i'll say that so i probably won't won't do it but i understand the logic 100 yes let's talk
Speaker 1about one that makes you less queasy hit us with your second bet
Speaker 3let's go michael pennix over 221 and a half passing yards that's minus 115 we got the bp projection at 224 and a half and he's had 256 at green bay and 223 at new orleans and we did see you know and i think this was is the real factor that is going to um impact a lot of the uh the pass rush losing trey hendrickson this baltimore defense just looked like a different kind of a shell of themselves when we saw carnell tate just absolutely torched them last week i think it was like 220 something yards from uh from cam warden 145 went to carnell tate well you can't stop carnell tate how are you stopping drake london right like so uh drake london i think is going to have a massive game here but he was involving everybody else too and i mean come on when you're when you have a dump off option like bjohn robinson who can uh you know wiggle twice and get you 45 passing yards uh we're going to take that every single time i just think 221 and a half of michael pennix is too low against baltimore specifically beat up baltimore so uh we're gonna sail right over that one yeah
Speaker 1i'm with you on that one like it a lot love that you picked it would have picked it myself if you did not so i finally got to the sheet first on board yes you did yes i was rapid firing the sheets and sending them out and i was like i'll get to the bed some point yeah i'll get there
Speaker 3i think this is the first time i did it so yes
Speaker 1now i'm gonna hit you guys with my second favorite bet it is my boy zay flowers over 68 and a half receiving yards surprisingly this line is actually not that far off we have seen the line be at all this season so you might be looking at it and be irritated that we didn't get enough um more of a discount we didn't like where's the tyler huntley discount on that one you might be wondering where is that tyler huntley discount why are we not getting this go down um it's because will zay flowers production really calm down that much with tyler huntley at quarterback it'll come down a little bit but we're talking about a receiver that has cleared that line all season on quite literally a third of snaps the man played multiple games without even reaching 50 percent of snaps just barely coming in at one third of snaps in two starts and then the full game last week uh the change in offensive coordinator really here is what inspires me to stay the course with this one uh declan doyle has really placed flowers as the focal point of the patent where he should have been for a while but really just um leaning into it in such an incredible way so i am leaning into this prop despite the injury situation obviously we do have to still monitor flowers um status right because he's working through a little something but if he is on the field he is going to clear this line technically speaking again he doesn't even need to be on the field even 50 percent of the time targets are funneling so aggressive through zay flowers when he's on the field he had a 50 percent target share last week so just don't be alarmed by any passing projections because flowers at this point is jsn light even low volume he can still clear this line but again if you're not Again, technically he is questionable right now. So just keep your eyes on that, but if you want to wait until that, um, gets sorted out. I don't see this line really adjusting that much because we already, we already pretty much know that Huntley is going to be the quarterback. So if anything, it might come down a little bit. Um, and then just a reminder, the betting pros projection on this one, 70 and a half. So not as high as we would want it to be, but still higher, still betting pros approved on this one. Are you, are you staying the course with Zay this week?
Speaker 3Yeah, I'm starting Zay in all the spots where I have him. Uh, I obviously don't have anyone else anywhere close and back again to the with or without tool, uh, targets. He's averaging over seven and a half targets per game with Tyler Huntley in there. Uh, uh, 7.67, uh, 5.8 receptions at 68.2 yards. So, you know, this is, this is right in line of where he is and Atlanta secondary has been tough. So, uh, I, I, I love this for Zay. This is like, I think this is three catches for him. Like he just breaks one of them. For a big one and the other two are padding. So three catches, four catches for Zay. I think he gets this total. So I'm on this one as well.
Speaker 1I like it. Yeah. He's locked in. Looks fantastic playing at the top of his career. Let's go on to the third set of bets and you hit us with your first, your third bet.
Speaker 3Yeah, this is Tyler Huntley under 23 and a half rushing yards. It's minus one Oh seven. The BP projection is 21.9 and look, Huntley will run, right? He'll bail out and he will absolutely. Run. But for some reason, Atlanta is crushing quarterbacks rushing now, you know, got Aaron Rogers in week one. I think they play Bryce young as well. So not the best quarterbacks to rush against, but I went back and looked at Stefanski last season, 2025 with the Cleveland Browns. They allowed the second fewest quarterback rushing yards, uh, 208 last season as well. So this might just be a staple of Stefanski's, uh, defensive scheme and the guys that he hired. So, um, we're going to go under this 23 and a half for Tyler Huntley. Um, I just, I think they're going to have him pass. I don't think he's going to need to run. And why would you want him running when you can turn around and hand the ball to Derek Henry? So, uh, maybe a couple rushes on, uh, some broken plays, things like that. I just, they've, they've covered that stuff. Well, Atlanta has, so we're going to go with the under.
Speaker 1Yeah. Well, I mean, you said it, you said, you know, one, you're handing it off to Derek Henry and two. considering the defensive matchup, they'll want to push the pass a little bit more as well. So that brings us to my third bet, which is Tyler Huntley, but on the opposite end, I'm going over on his passing yards at 174 and a half. Got to tell you, it was super fun going back and parsing through and actually seeing all the full games that Huntley has played over his career to see the ceilings of Huntley since he's got the most partial games that ever existed. I really genuinely think he might be the backup with the most partial games ever. So you really got to look at it and just be like, might technically
Speaker 3be Taysom Hill, but yes, uh, actual quarterback, probably Tyler Huntley. Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 1Taysom Hill does officially hold that title as a quote unquote quarterback. Sorry, Taysom, love, love-ish you, um, you know, fantasy, fantasy trauma, if you will. But Tyler Huntley, um, he is, absolutely at risk of a solid 120 yards, but he can push volume when force. And again, talked about it. Atlanta is the perfect team to force them to have to up his passing attempts and yardage. Um, we talked about this last week or the week before. Um, I can't remember specifically, but, um, the Falcons defense has held up strong upfront, despite all the missing personnel you would have thought heading into the season, like, Oh, they're going to be in a rough spot upfront. No, they have held it down. And now that they have all the injuries piling up in the secondary, that is where the vulnerability is. So when it comes to running backs, they are maxing out at between 60 and 70 yards against the Falcons and on the opposite end, right outside of the week, one game, Aaron Rogers, which, you know, it's Aaron Rogers, right? The Falcons have had a minimum of allowed a minimum of 287 passing yards in every single game. So when you combine that with Bijan Robinson, being excellent Drake, London coming to life with Michael panics. Again, we talked about the Baltimore defensive issues. And it's really has this offense working very well. So it all just ties up to a nice correlated bow and saying that, Hey, this is just the perfect scenario for there to be just a little bit more offense pushed on Baltimore's in and through Tyler Huntley through the air specifically, because that is the best way to compete with Atlanta and betting pros does have him projected for one. 83 yards passing. So, um, are you going to get on board with me with Tyler Huntley in passing yards? I don't blame
Speaker 3you if you don't, I think I can because, uh, I think we both expect Atlanta to, um, win this game, right. And they are favored. And if you're playing from behind, you have to pass. So I think this is a low enough total. Also, it's the Darius Smith questionable for this game. Uh, I believe, was that a neck injury that he had? It was something kind of ugly. So, uh, cause I remember they brought the car out for him and then he stood
Speaker 1up and they ran up in a stinger
Speaker 3or something. I can't really remember the specifics, but he has not practiced yet this week. So probably going to be down as well. One of their better pass rushers and Huntley knows what he's doing new system with Declan Doyle, but he's got a lot of experience. He's like closer to my age, uh, than he is to a rookie's age. So the dude definitely knows what to do. So I think I can get on board with this. I may not bet it myself, but I do like the pick.
Speaker 1There we go. And let's transition that to our same game parlay because we did include Tyler Huntley on that one, but we've got a three lag, same game parlay. We started off with Michael Pinnock's over two 21 and a half passing yards, then Zay flowers over 68 and a half receiving yards, and then tying it back with Tyler Huntley over one 74 and a half passing yards for a nice plus three 60 on that one. And of course you can build smarter parlays, for free with the betting pros parlay wizard explore expert analyze picks across all your favorite sports ranked by cover probability and expected value. Compare the best available odds, filter picks to match your betting style spreads or not spreads. We'll see. And then of course, build your slip with confidence at betting pros.com/parlay. All right. We will hit you with our final score predictions. Mine's pretty simple. I mean, I did say I like the over, so I do have to predict a score that does go with the over. It is 27 to 20 and Atlanta. I do like them. I do. If I had to pick a side, that'd be Lena.
Speaker 3Yeah, me too. I mean, also wishful thinking as a Steelers fan. Uh, but, uh, I do think Atlanta comes away with this one. I think just Baltimore is too beat up. They're on the road. Um, it's, it's a, you know, even against a team like Atlanta, who we didn't expect to play well this year, they are playing well right now. And I, I think they, uh, I think they won this game 24, 23, a tight one. That's pretty, that's I'm sailing over the total though on that one. Yeah. Just hope it's not 23, 17, right? Like I just hope it's not something like that. So, uh, exactly. Let's go Falcons. I'm I'm on the dirty birds this week.
Speaker 1And Michael panics. We trust who would have thought, but he has been our savior. It's been our savior torch my
Speaker 3long horns in the playoffs. So he's been, he's, he's been the bane of my existence ever that ever since then, but he can win me some money.
Speaker 1I'll take it. We appreciate it. All right. A recap, our bets real quick for you. We had Derek Henry over five and a half receiving yards than the over on points at 43 and a half Michael Penix over passing yards at 2 21 and a half Zay flowers over 68 and a half receiving yards and Tyler Huntley hold it down under 23 and a half rushing yards, but over 174. And a half passing yards. We appreciate you all tuning in that wraps things up before we head out, make sure to like the video. If you're watching on YouTube and make sure that you are also subscribed to the bedding pros, YouTube channel and podcasts, so that you don't miss out on any of the bedding content across all sports and bedding pros tools as well for Scott Bogman. I'm Tara Roberts. Thank you for tuning in. We will see you next time.
Speaker 8Thanks for listening to the bedding pros podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on apple podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on X and Tik TOK at bedding pros and Instagram at bedding pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/bettingpros.
Speaker 2If you own a small business, you know, that dealing with the books is part of running the business. You started because you had something you wanted to build, but then you realize you've got all these numbers. You got to keep track of from accounting and payroll and payments and cashflow. That's X E R O. Xero puts your accounting payments, payroll analytics, all in one connected platform. It's great. So you can get a clear picture of what's actually happening in your biz. You've got visual dashboards, reports, forecasts to help you understand your cashflow. Xero can even provide you with a little bit of information on how to provide AI powered insights to help make you smarter and make smarter decisions. Okay. So it's easy to navigate, but even easier to understand. In fact, 91% of customers agree zero is easy to use and most things aren't. X-E-R-O. Learn more.
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