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Speaker 3What's up, friends, and welcome into Betting Pros. This is the Week 6 Sunday Night Football Betting Preview. I'm Chris Welsh. That is Scott Bogman. We're breaking down Dallas at Green Bay. We've got props. We're talking spreads, totals. We're going to be looking at where some of the bets are, where maybe the cash is. We're going to be building a parlay at the end, and we're going to give you some final scores. That is what we have got locked in. Which, Bogs, I would say, at least maybe I'm selfish, one of my favorites Sunday and then into Monday, because we're going to do the Monday night show, 49ers on Monday, but a Green Bay-Dallas Sunday Night Football, probably one of the better ones we're going to have out there. I think there's a line of total is, and kind of jumping into that, Green Bay is a one-point favorite in this. The total at 42.5, that's going to kind of like fly around a little bit, and that line feels like it's going to go one of two ways. Smash over, or then it turns into some crazy, ugly thing, because we think it is. But, like, you stare at this game, and I can only see points, points, and just a few
Speaker 4more points. I mean, that's what I see, but everything I see for the primetime games has been incorrect for, like, two weeks. Yeah, you're self-loathing right now.
Speaker 3Yeah, Bogman's in a loathing stage, everybody. We need some digital hugs in here. You're not happy with the last couple primetime games.
Speaker 4I mean, my Sunday nights have been good, but my Thursday nights have been miserable two weeks in a row. So, Monday is, you know, 50-50. At least I get to double down on that with Joe on Monday on the live stream. So, but, yeah, not a good Thursday, but I do like my picks for this week. I will explain them. I will give you reasoning. Yeah. And you might just want to fade me, so.
Speaker 3Well, I mean, you know, you have, and we'll see if we can get something different out of you. You have pretty locked on. It'd almost be fun to have a super cut of this throughout the beginning of the season. You tell us, I don't like the sides. I don't want to bet you the spread. I like the props. You're not feeling confident with the props. So, is there anything on the sides here? Again, Green Bay is minus one. Fifty-two and a half is the total. Looking at the bets on the on Dallas. So, the bottom line is the percentage of bets right now are heavily more playing on Dallas, not seeing the current money as we're recording this. So, talk to us about the sides. Do you feel any confidence or is this another game where one of you can't attach yourself to any of these sides and you got to move away?
Speaker 4I kind of like points in this game, right? Like we know that the Packers pass the ball a lot. We know that the Dallas defense is bad. We know that the Dallas offense had a pretty good game last week. So, I'm, I'm thinking points. That's, that's what I feel here. I would take the home team minus the one. So, that's, that's what I like. I have picked these games wrong so often. Like the props have been okay. Like I think for the year, I'm probably still up. But the, the, the sides I have been pretty terrible at.
Speaker 3I feel okay with the sides. I like the home team. I like the, I'll take the point. You can play the total. As you mentioned, I think both of these defenses are susceptible. We know Dallas is going to slang it. We know the Green Bay Packers are going to throw the ball. I'm not sure they're going to be able to establish whatever semblance of a running game that they've been throwing out at us, you know, forever with Lloyd and strong. So, that is going to lead them to throw in the ball. And, you know, Christian Watson, I think is a force. Marcus Golden is a force. Matthew Golden, sorry. Marcus Golden, linebacker, my former linebacker, the Cardinals. Matthew Golden, the Paul, the name. So, I'm not a complete idiot. But yeah, I love the, I love the wide receiver cores in here and I like the deep ball. So, I like the point. So, I actually feel really confident. My lean is, my heavy lean is going to be on those points, even though it's at 52 and a half. I'm going to play that over. I'm fine with Green Bay on home, even though the percentage public bets are going on Dallas. So, my pick, obviously, Green Bay, as is yours. So, let's see if we can find a little bit more confidence. We can break it on this Sunday night when we look at the props. Four total props that we like. But before we do, I want to tell you guys about Polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident that you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $25 on your first trade when you deposit just 10 bucks. And now, they've even launched this great new feature called Squads. It's a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So, go and download the Polymarket app today and use FPPod when you sign up. That's code FPPod to get $25 free after you deposit just 10 bucks. All right, let's jump into our props for Sunday night football. Bogman, you kick it off. I think this is probably the, there's some type of lean, if I'm being honest, that you're going to want to play into Christian Watson. He's kind of been the guy I have continuously talked about. I'm just going to throw this out. I talked about it on the prop show. First touchdowns, I think he's got three of them this year. I just love it. I love Christian Watson. So, we had to find some type of play. You were early to it and you jumped in with a Christian Watson bet. And I'm down to tell you. So, what is your number one prop on
Speaker 4Christian Watson? Over four and a half receptions, it's minus 114. And this dude has had eight plus targets in four or five games for Watson. And against the Cowboys, Mecca's gone for six receptions. Nico had seven. Flowers had five before he was hurt. Diggs had five. Likely had eight. Neighbors had six. Cowboys won 21st in passing yards allowed. We know that the Packers throw the ball more than anybody else in terms of their play percentage. Their passing play percentage is number one in the league. So, yeah, Christian Watson is the man right now. Healthy right now. Let's roll him for over four and a half receptions.
Speaker 3I like it. I'm going to play that, whether it's yards. I guess I wasn't going to do that. But anytime touchdown, I think it's always in play. Let's jump over to my first prop here. And this is one where if CeeDee Lamb was out, this would be a smash. Betting pros projections are not quite 100% in play here. But Ryan Flournoy, receptions, I'm doing a reception prop as well. It's big plus money at over 3.5. 3.5 is almost like it's like when the 130s like plus 130. And he's projected at three on betting pros. So they're not in play. But he has hit this in two of his last four games. The receiving yards was the big play. And that's one that you absolutely can take a look at. But the receptions are the one I'm in love with, with the plus money. Not only has he hit this in two of his last four games, he has averaged 5.4 targets so far this season. So the targets are there to get and maybe lock into that four. Obviously, whatever semblance of coverage is going to be out there is going to be looking at at pickings and obviously going to be looking at CeeDee Lamb. I am locking myself into Ryan Flournoy. I love to I love the way he plays. I love the way he plays. I that live in the mud the mud the mud people plus money yeah it's just like it's like oh christian watson and cd lamb give me plus money on ryan florinoy who plays that solid uh third wide receiver in that offense where again if i'm talking about the theme of where i think this offense is it's gonna score points they're gonna be slinging the ball and this team might be playing from behind so ryan florinoy over 3.5 receptions that is the one that i like here and that is my first prop bogman let's go to your second prop for this bad boy i'm gonna
Speaker 4stick with green bay and i'm gonna go jordan love over 272 and a half passing yards it's minus 115 bp projections got him at 274 so just over this uh green bay is averaging 271 yards per game so far like we said before 66.3 passing play percentage is number one in the nfl dallas is 31st in pff coverage grade 25th in pass rush so i know there's been offensive line issues for green bay but they look pretty good against chicago last week uh 31st and overall defensive grade for the cowboys as well so uh we know they're allowing a lot of pass yards right now we know that's kind of all that green bay has on offense right now as well and it doesn't look like dallas is going to be able to attack this very well so over 272 and a half passing yards big number for jordan love but uh we believe in you let's go jordan
Speaker 3love yeah and i'm mine's a little correlative to it because i pass attempt number is pretty high it's at 34.5 but um a lot of the projection numbers i mean obviously because you're seeing it 272.5. It's a high total. It's a high projection total for a big offensive scoring 52.5 total for the game that I want to ride the coattails of it because I don't think there's going to be that much of a running game. I don't think Pierre Strong and I don't think Marshall and Lloyd are going to be as involved. I think Jordan Love is going to have to sling that ball a bunch. And 34.5 is a big number, but I think this game can potentially come down to the back end of it. And that's why I'm going to play a correlative to your passing yards. I'm going to play the over on it. Jordan Love has not been smashing this, though. We did see that. What was it? The 53 pass attempt versus Atlanta. And I think he's been in the 30s in the last couple. So it does kind of come back down to it. But I don't run game. But yeah, there's no running. And that's like the big the big piece to it. I mean, you could also look this could be a negative to it is Dallas has not given up this number to any quarterback, though. Those quarterbacks, when you look, you see like. Commanders, you see the Giants, you see the Bucs like they have not. I guess like Lamar. I mean, Lamar through 20 pass attempts, the best attempt at a high pass attempt quarterback is CJ Stroud. And he ended up throwing for 347 yards and he had 31 pass attempts. So your passing yards looks even better. But I'm going to play correlative in it that there's going to be a punch, a bunch of pass attempts on it with Jordan Love. And that is going to be my play when we go and we want to build some parlay. We always want to do it with a parlay wizard. You guys can build smarter parlays for free with the betting pros parlay wizard. Explore expert analyzed picks across all your favorite sports ranked by cover probability and expected value. Compare the best available odds, filter picks to match your betting style and build your slip with confidence at bettingpros.com slash parlay. We put one together where we are going to go with the Christian Watson over receiving receptions like that you had. So that's going to be our main focus. We are adding in my Ryan Flournoy with a high probability. The plus one 30 range over 3.5 receptions. And then what I did was I went into, you can click on correlated legs if you'd like. So correlated plays to what we put together, or you can go into the quick ad and you can pick either highest EV or highest cover probability. And I went into highest cover probability and guess what? Christian Watson, anytime touchdown. So anytime Christian Watson touchdown, Christian Watson receptions over and Ryan Flournoy receptions over, and that is going to be close to like a five to one, uh, coverage odds are pretty decent. I really like this play and you guys can build some of those with all the fun correlative plays. Uh, go build your parlays today. That is what we are going to be squad writing for the Sunday night game. And that takes us to our final score prediction. Bogman hit us with what you think the final score is going to be. We both like green Bay. We kind of like the over how much of the over are you going
Speaker 4to play? I'm going to say 30 to 24. I think this is like a green Bay lead and Dallas has a ball at the end and we'll see what happens. Right? Like they can go down and win it or green Bay gets that pick and ends it. So, uh, high scoring game, hopefully, uh, lots of passing, hopefully. So specifically on the green Bay side, hopefully. So yeah, let's go back. Yeah. I'm kind of with you.
Speaker 3Uh, well, I'm sorry. What was your
Speaker 4score? Uh, 30 to 24 is my final.
Speaker 3So
Speaker 4over by a point
Speaker 3now I'm I'm further over. I'm 3430. I kind of am with you. I think this could come down to Dallas final possession. It not working out 3430 in favor of green Bay, a little bit on the other side. So I'm kind of with you. I think this could cover on the spread way over on the total. That's how I see this game. So clearly there'll be, you know, four points total and a 12 pass attempts and it'll all be rushing. Marsha and Lloyd will have 200 rushing eyes, right? That's how it's going to go. Yeah. Right. What are your guys' favorite bets? Drop them below. Uh, what do you got for the Sunday night football? And can you guys build a better and more profitable parlay do it with a parlay wizard and drop it in the comments below. We would love to see it. Good luck in all your bets. We want to hear from you guys. We want to see you cashing. That's going to do it for us right here. I'm betting pros for the Sunday night football betting show. We're out. Good luck. We'll talk to you next time. That's Bogman. I'm Welsh betting pros. Peace. Thanks for listening
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Speaker 2You started because you had something you wanted to build, but then you realize you got all these numbers. You got to keep track of from accounting and payroll and payments and cashflow. That's X E R O. Xero puts your accounting payments, payroll analytics, all in one connected platform. It's great. So you can get a clear picture of what's actually happening in your biz. You got visual dashboards, reports, forecasts to help you understand your cashflow. Xero can even provide AI powered insights to help make you smarter and make smarter decisions. Okay. So it's easy to navigate, but even easier to understand. In fact, 91% of customers agree Xero is easy to use. And most things aren't. 5 million customers worldwide are already using Xero. X E R O. If you're a small business owner, you're looking for a simpler way to stay on top of your finances. It's time you try Xero. Learn more. X E R O.com. A 91% claim is based on a 2024 Xero survey conducted in the US, the UK and Australia. This is Pat Fitzmaurice.
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