Straight Through the Strait

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You'll get the stack of stuff, the links to the show notes, discounts to the conference, and so much more. All you have to do is text the word show SHOWW to 33777. Text show to 33777. [MUSIC PLAYING] Welcome to the Eric Erickson Show podcast, hour one. Greetings conversationalists. Welcome to the Eric Erickson here. Across the United States, the full number is 877973747425. Should you wish to be able to program text Eric, ERICK to 337777 to get the show notes to the livestream, the podcast, everything you need. The Dow, the Nasdaq, the SB, they're all up right now. The Iranians say they are considering the offer from President Trump. We know the Iranian government is badly divided now. The replacement for Ali Arjani has now been killed. They are fractured. They're turning on each other. And yet, you have American experts on television saying how bad it's going for the United States. It's actually going very well. I wish to turn my attention right now to the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Been working on finding some technology to be able to do this now. I'm going to narrate an image. Most of you listening, you're listening by audio, not video. For those of you tuned in, my flagship station WSB radio to their video or to my Twitter feed right now, you'll see the video, the rest of you. If you text Eric to 33777, subscribe to YouTube, you'll be able to get it later. But I will talk you through it. I am a professional. I can do this. I want to explain to you the dynamics in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps coming up. Because a lot of people seem to be a little clueless about the significance and how the Iranians can control so much of it. So if you're watching this, you'll see a graphic of the Persian Gulf. And I want to be able to narrate through the dynamic for everyone to be able to understand the scenario here. The Persian Gulf is actually a pretty shallow body of water. It is not very deep in the grand scheme of things. The reason the Persian Gulf is not very deep in the grand scheme of things is there or two rivers you may have heard of. At the north end is the Tigris and Euphrates. They flow out into the Persian Gulf. And those are the major bodies of water that flow into the Persian Gulf. They flow down into the Persian Gulf. And then you have what is the Strait of Hormuz, which the Arabian Peninsula juts out into the Strait of Hormuz and Iran controls most of the coastline. The Iranian control of the coastline is actually pretty significant in the Strait of Hormuz. So when Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, there are islands in the Strait of Hormuz. And those islands are called the Abu Musa Islands. Now people talk about, they talk about Carg Island a lot. And Carg Island is actually, well, it's not the most significant island in the Persian Gulf. Carg Island is actually, well, it is an island to the northwest. So on a map of the Persian Gulf, Carg Island is far to the northwest of Iran. And it is closer to Iraq and it's closer to Kuwait than the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the Strait of Hormuz, you have a series of islands and the most significant two are Syria Island and Abu Musa. So do north of Dubai. If you look on a map of the Arabian Peninsula and you find Dubai and you go do north from Dubai, you get this series of islands. To the east is Abu Musa. To the west is Syria Island. Now right in between those two islands, and the reason I know what I'm talking about, was Fata Field, which is my father's oil platform when I was a kid. Fata Field is between Syria Island and Abu Musa Island and my dad could see them on a clear day. Now as you're coming through the Persian Gulf, what you have to understand is that the Persian Gulf is not deep. For you and me, it's deep, but we're talking 150 feet deep maybe and a fully loaded tanker with oil can sink to about 80 feet. So you got about 80 feet of the ship or more under underwater. You see an oil tanker on the water and you see the height of it above water. Well, the most of that ship is underwater and the Persian Gulf is not a deep ocean. So what happens is the ships have to load their cargo offshore. They go to offshore loading facilities in the Persian Gulf in the deeper water where they're filled with the oil. In some cases, they can come inland. Most of those ships, however, they go to islands or they go to platforms that are built offshore where the oil is pumped to them and they're connected because when you get down south of those islands, as I've been telling you about, the water is actually pretty shallow. You're getting to the point where if you're a fully loaded oil tanker, you could get stuck. If you're the United States, what you have to understand is the deepest part of the Persian Gulf goes from the Gulf of Oman up and around the Arabian Peninsula and between the Abu Musa Islands, which are very close to Iran. You go south of the Abu Musa Islands, Syria Island and Abu Musa Island, the water rapidly becomes shallow. So the major path of oil tankers through the Persian Gulf is all inside Iranian territory, essentially bordered by the four Abu Musa Islands. You can, in some cases, go south of the Abu Musa Islands. The water starts to get a little shallow there, but there are some oil rigs out there that are owned by Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and you can go south of there. To control the straight of Hormuz, forget Karr Gailand. Again, Karr Gailand is way up in the northwest. To control the straights of Hormuz, you got to control the Abu Musa Islands, which is where the ships flow through, and they are small islands, about four square miles to six square miles, four of the islands have runways on them. For the Iranian military, to rapidly deploy and get on speedboats and go out and blow up the ships or lay mines. So in order to take on Iran, you've got to control at least Syria Island and Abu Musa Island on the south side of the Iranian territory, and then send the oil tankers south of those two islands. But again, the water starts to get shallow south of those two islands. So there are only so many ships that can proceed in that pattern south of those two islands, which you typically do, is they sail between the. Farver Island is one of them. I forget the name of the other one, but you sail between these two islands, and the ships go to the west on the north side, and they go to the east on the south side with the perimeter of these islands or surrounding them. And so Iran has built up massive military forces. for structure on all of these islands, most of which have runways to actively be able to deploy the Iranian military. But those runways also give us a little bit of an advantage as well. Because we could land troops and take those islands if we want. Because the Iranian fortifications have been well destroyed by the United States in the last number of weeks with help from the Israelis. We've been flying eight ins over the islands now. Without any incursions, we have flown B-52s over the islands and blown up significant portions of the islands. There isn't a lot of defensive structure left on the islands. And the president is sending 3,000 of the 82nd Airborne along with Marine Expeditionary Forces. And the theory is they may be trying to take these islands. If they take Syrian island and Abu Musa island and they divert ships south of those, there's a lot more protection from the Iranians until you get up to the very top of the straight of Hormuz. And then you would have to deal with l'Arrak Island and Hormuz Island and Hengam Island, which are also controlled by the Iranians and very close to the Iranian coast. But you can steer ships in deep water far enough away to give the military escort positions. The Iranians we believe have dropped 10 to 12 sea mines in the area. Sea mines are attracted to the holes of ships. They use magnets and they get attracted to the holes of ships and they can be pulled off the sea bed or from their anchor position towards the ships with their with their magnets and blow up. They can also blow up just when a ship gets close to them. They detect them and these mines blow up and they can sink the ships. So we are sending an expeditionary force to the Persian Gulf to get rid of the mines. The British are now sending minesweepers to the Persian Gulf and we are sending the 82nd Airborne and a Marine Expeditionary Force to take control of these islands more likely than not. The Iranians say they're willing to have peace with the United States. Now they're willing to intertalks with the United States but they believe it's a trick. They might might might be catching on to Donald Trump now where he says five or six things the President the other day said we've already achieved peace. The President of the other day said we've accomplished our goals. We're just still bombing them so they can realize we've accomplished our goals. He says a lot of things. I'm not sure the Iranians should believe him and I think the Iranians are realizing they shouldn't believe him because we got a Marine Expeditionary Force headed that way and we have the 82nd Airborne headed that way and it sounds like we may be taking control of some of these islands. If we control the islands now our Marines become sitting ducks to the Iranians we'll have to figure out defensively how to protect them but if we control the islands it is us who now control the straight of Hormuz and not the Iranians. It becomes much more difficult for the Iranians to stop oil tankers and we have the ability to open up the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile the pipelines that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have now built to flow oil to the Gulf of Oman and flow oil to the Red Sea have started working. They are at full capacity now trying to keep oil prices low and that is one reason the markets are reacting positively today with the Dow up 240 points right now because it appears that the Saudis and the Emirates have found ways around the oil flow that the Iranians were restricting and also we're sending enough soldiers sailors airmen and the British and the Poles and other NATO allies to take the straight of Hormuz in large part because the Europeans and our Asian allies have suddenly realized something that I've been telling you guys for weeks. Only 8% of the outflow for the Persian Gulf comes to the Western hemisphere the rest of it goes to Europe, Asia, and Africa. It is in their strategic interest to deal with Iran trying to control the straight of Hormuz. As I'm talking to you right now Iran says it will reject any attempt to take their sovereignty of the straight of Hormuz away. Oman Bahrain, Qatar, United Emirates, Saudi Arabia, they all want Iran's control of the straight of Hormuz to go away. They believe there are threats to their industrial military and economic capacities. The Americans are saying that we will control the straight of Hormuz not Iran. We have to control those islands to control the streets of Hormuz and frankly if you were the United States and you had four islands on which there were already built runways that could land major cargo planes. It just seems to me that it would make sense for us considering we no longer have a base in Afghanistan to have a couple of those islands in our pocket to be able to launch missions. It makes a lot of sense to me and it makes a lot of sense to the defense department and it seems to make a lot of sense to the president. You're going to hear a lot in the media over the next few weeks about Carg Island. Don't pay a lot of attention to Carg Island. Carg Island is significant because that's where the Iranians flow their oil to remember I told you. The Persian Gulf of Shaloh, their islands and offshore platforms where they load. Carg Island is where a lot of ships load oil for the Iranians because there's a deep water port around Carg Island to the west and south side of Carg Island. That's why Carg Island is significant. It's where the Iranians built their infrastructure to export their oil. But for control, the straight of Hormuz is completely irrelevant and I've seen now multiple reporters including Judd for Griffin from Fox News talk about Carg Island. It is not significant in any way, shape or form when you're talking about control of the straight of Hormuz. What is control is Larsk Island in Abu Musa and the Abu Musa Islands in Syria Island. You've got to control those and you're probably about start hearing the names of those islands come up in media coverage as the media finally gets educated that they've been focusing on the wrong island in the Persian Gulf. Hello and welcome. It is Eric Erickson here across the United States. The full number is 877-977-370 745 should you wish to be on the program. I'm going to tell you guys I was stunned to see this headline. How brazen it is. Howard French is a writer at Foreign Policy magazine. He's considered an expert. He is clearly a progressive and I want you to hear the headline. Why US victory in Iran would be bad for Washington and the world. The subtitle gives away the game. The possibility of Trump imposing his personal whims on another nation is even more frightening than US failure. You got that? You have an American Foreign Policy expert openly rooting for a rogue terrorist regime that has killed thousands of Americans because he hates Donald Trump and he's openly saying it would be better that Iran win than Donald Trump win because it would be bad for the world if Donald Trump won something. This is the open contempt of left and you know privately many of them feel the same way. I want you to feel the love and affection that I have for Rani and their tankless water heater and if you go to TalkingTankless.com today, you might be able to get a sense of it. I yanked my tank of a water heater and I put in a tankless water heater from Rani and the fighting between my kids over hot waters, hot water went away. You can do the same thing with your current home. No brainer for a new home. Get a tankless water heater from Rani. Go to TalkingTankless.com. Our power bill went down in our house and when the power goes out, we have a UPS backup. We've just plugged the thing into and it's so hyper efficient. It doesn't wear out the UPS backup and when the power goes out in the house, which happens occasionally, we still have hot water. We don't run out of hot water in our house. It just works too. You turn on and you got hot water. It's a glorious device. TalkingTankless.com is the website TalkingTankless.com. Have a water forever in your house. In the fighting in your house over bath time and showers among your kids, make sure you've always got a steady flow of hot water and never have to have the inefficiency of filling up and keeping a tank hot. Yank the tank. Get a tankless from Rani. Greetings and welcome. It is Eric Eriksson here. I want to bring you updates on the war because there are some major updates to be had. First, I want to tell you, if you've got computer issues, you need a new computer. You want to upgrade your computer. Go to visioncomputers.com or call them at 404 compute and tell them Eric Sincia and you'll be able to get a brand new computer from vision computers or if you just either managed IT support, vision computers can take care of that as well. In fact, they're very hands on with you and your company or your family. They can remote in if they need to. They can do email support. They can do printer support. You name it. They can help you. In fact, if you're a company, you can save money instead of having the in-house six-figured IT guy. You use vision computers and well, they can take over the job for you and your employees get a phone number 15 seconds or less. They can get somebody on the phone that person can navigate in, fix their computer forum, answer their questions for them, faster than a Google search. You can actually get a human being, not AI, but a human being on the phone and they can help you navigate your computers. If you build your computers for your office, for your home with vision computers, their managed IT support comes with the computer. So if you're upgrading your computers at your office right now, use vision computers and the managed IT service comes with it vision computers dot com 404 compute column and tell them Eric sent you 404 compute or vision computers dot com Brett Stevens of all people of all people used to be at the Wall Street Journal. Brett Stevens is in the New York Times and he's one of the conservative columnists of the New York Times, which means he has to write in a way that the progressives of New York will not lynch him and it is a very interesting piece that he has written. Most Americans probably don't look back at March 2012 if they remember it all and think of terrifyingly high gas prices. In the month when the Hunger Games ruled the box office and President Obama was on his way to a comfortable reelection, the price of Brit crude closed the month around $123 a barrel. That would be about $175 a barrel into days dollars with inflation. As of Tuesday, despite Iran's effective closure of the straight of Hormuz and its attack on its neighbors energy facilities and suffering around $100 slightly higher than the average inflation adjusted price since January of 20 of 2001. That ought to provide some perspective on the panic over the war in the Middle East. To hear the critics versions of events and unprovoked an unnecessary attack on Iran, launched at Israel's behest is already a foreign policy fiasco that has put the global economy at risk without any clear objective or in game. As Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat told me the press over the weekend, we've never seen this level of incompetence and a war making in this country's history. Really, let's take a tour of recent history. During the 1991 Operation Desert Storm against Iraq Saddam Hussein, a campaign widely considered a brilliant military success. The U.S. lost 75 aircraft, 42 of them in combat. In this conflict, four manned aircraft have been destroyed, three to friendly fire, one in an accident, not a single manned plane has been lost over Iran. The U.S. air and land campaign in that operation lasted a full six weeks. Today, it's remembered as lightning fast. The current campaign is less than four weeks old. In the 1989-90 invasion of Panama, whose military phase lasted a few days, the U.S. lost 23 soldiers with 325 more wounded. So far, the U.S. losses are 13 dead. Among the more than 230 wounded, most have swiftly returned to duty. I'm going to pause here and give you some perspective. More people have been killed in Chicago, Illinois in the past four weeks that have been killed at war with Iran. You're not hearing that statistic. The media wants you to think we are losing that it is a disaster. They want Donald Trump humiliated. And if it means cheering on the deaths of our soldiers, the media is willing to do it because they hate Donald Trump so much. But for perspective, in the last four weeks, more people have been killed just in Chicago, Illinois than in a war with a Iranian power. During the Persian Gulf crisis that began with a Iraq invasion of Kuwait in August of 1990, the U.S. economy went into recession and the Dow fell by about 13% before the Allied Air War began. Since conflict with Iran began last June with Operation Midnight Hammer, the Dow is up 9%. You keep in track of these. At the outset of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States made a failed decapitation strike against Saddam Hussein and a senior leadership, some of whom became leaders of the insurgency in that war. Much of in this war, much of Iran's top leadership was killed the first day. There's still no proof of life from the current Supreme Leader. Between 1987 and 1988 in the final stages of the so-called tanker war, the Reagan administration reflag Kuwaiti tankers and had the U.S. Navy escort them out of the straight of Hormuz and Iranian mine nearly sank at American frigate. The conflict wound down after the United States sank a handful of Iranian Navy ships. This time around, we've destroyed almost all of Iran's Navy without a single naval loss. He's talking about the USS Samuel B. Roberts in that conflict. During the 1989 period, the USS Samuel B. Roberts was an American frigate in the Persian Gulf and it got hit by an American by an Iranian mine and they struggled to keep the ship afloat and they were determined not to give the Iranians a win. The ship moved to dry dock in Dubai. My parents started entertaining the enlisted on the USS Samuel B. Roberts. I would wake up some mornings and there would be sailors all around my house on the floor asleep. My parents cooked for these sailors. They cleaned for them. They did laundry for them. At one point, I'll never forget. I decided that I would take care of their laundry. There is a place in Dubai. I believe it's still there and you can get lots of cheap clothes and they all went out shopping with my family and they bought new clothes and I took it upon myself to wash their clothes. That is when I learned that you cannot put red clothes and white clothes together and those poor sailors had pink uniforms thanks to your host. My mother was able to undo the damage in our house girl Anna from India. They were able to undo the damage. I learned that day you don't put reds and whites together the washing machine. Even on cold water, you don't do that. Those guys were at our house for months. Some of them remain good family friends. The same will be Roberts was ultimately put on the back of another boat and sit back to the United States for full repairs. It was an amazing rescue operation and I spent a lot of time with the sailors of the USS Samu will be Roberts. My dad would do by if you were an American dad liquor stores you had to show your passport to get permission to be able to go but you go and my dad kept them safely supplied with beer and ribs and burgers and my mom did cooking for them and it was it's a fine memory of mine. It was nearly a tragedy but I remember that very vividly. I woke up one morning and there was two people asleep on the floor of my room. I had to get up and go to school. It was an interesting time to be alive and I remember because my father had to sneak off his oil platform as the Iranian started blowing up the oil platforms in the Persian Gulf. I remember one day very distinctly. I was walking home from school with an F-16 flew over and fired missiles out to sea at the Iranians. That's when we came home because during that chaos period Iraq had started massing troops on the border with Kuwait. I have lived this life over there. I've seen these things. I've seen the American military combat the Iranian military and they're not as good as advertised. Back to Brett Stevens. In the month leading up to the second Iraq war, the George W. Bush administration made a case based on erroneous information that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. In the current war there's no question that some 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium lie stashed and buried in Iran possibly enough with further enrichment and conversion into uranium metal for 11 nuclear bombs. If the outrage of the Iraq war is that Saddam Hussein didn't have weapons of mass destruction capabilities, is it now supposed to be somehow more outrageous than Iran actually does? One of the worst mistakes of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was the attempt by U.S. administrators to remake societies in both countries. Well-intended efforts with some notable results, noble results that none the less were beyond our grasp. In this war, despite some very rhetoric from President Trump, the goal has been reasonably clear and consistent. Iran cannot have nuclear weapons or other means to Minnesot's neighbors. As for regime change, we hope the Iranian people will use the opportunity, but we're not going to do it for them. The Bush administration had little support from Arab nations during the 2003 invasion of Iraq and its aftermath. Now the New York Times reports, Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has been pushing President Trump to continue the war. We have people openly rooting for the defeat of the United States on the left in this country. They're openly rooting for it. The foreign policy magazine headline, why U.S. victory in Iran would be bad for Washington and the world. And essentially his premise is that if Donald Trump is able to win this thing, he's going to run rough shot over even more people. And so it would be better. It would be better if somehow or another we lost. It's wild to watch people in the United States rooting against the United States solely because of the president of the United States. This is from the New York Times. Times as Brett Stephen was quoted in his piece, Saudi Arabia's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been pushing President Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the United States' Israel military campaign presents a historic opportunity to remake the Middle East, according to people briefed by American officials on the conversations. In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press forward the destruction of Iran's hardline government. The people familiar with the conversation said, Prince Mohammed, the people familiar with the discussion said, had argued that Iran poses a long-term threat to the Gulf and can only be eliminated by getting rid of the government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel also views Iran as a long-term threat, but analysts say Israeli officials would probably view a failed Iranian state that is too caught up in internal turmoil to minister Israel as a win while Saudi Arabia views a failed state in Iran as a grave and direct security threat. But senior officials in both the Saudi and American governments worry that if the conflict drags on, Iran could deliver ever more punishing attacks on Saudi oil installations and the United States could be stuck in an endless war. So the way to do it is to get it over with fast. Now allow me to tell you things that are documented but are not being reported by the American press and I want to know why the American press is not reporting these things. The Iranian government is divided. Many of them are no longer being paid. It is now documented and confirmed yesterday was unconfirmed today it's confirmed by Israel that in some cases IRGC officials are reporting other IRGC officials to the Israelis for targeting. That does not sound like a unified government effort. There are factions within the Iranian government insisting they will never talk to the United States and there are factions within Iran insisting they are talking to the United States. That appears to be a divided government. The regime of Iran will not sustain itself when you have multiple factions calling in air strikes on the other factions. The army is not getting paid and the diplomatic elite are divided over whether or not to talk to the United States or not. Ladies and gentlemen, I hate to hurt the feelings of the left. But we're winning this war and they can root against Donald Trump and they can root against our soldiers and they can root against our navy and they can blame it all on the Jews. But the Iranian government is divided. It is collapsing in real time. Will it continue to collapse? I don't know but right now they're fractured. They're split and they're turning on each other and they're not getting paid. We have now killed the replacement for Ali Larjani, the leader of the Iranian defense forces, the man who was in charge, we've killed his replacement. We continue to kill other leaders of Iran. We're doing a good thing. We're not pursuing regime change per se but that appears to be the outcome. If all the people say where are the riots, where are the protesters, where's the rebellion, where's the resistance, we're still telling the Iranian people to stay inside. We haven't told them to come outside yet. We haven't told them to take up their arms yet. We haven't told them to do that. We are literally the message of the Americans and the Israelis to the Iranian people right now is stay inside. Don't come out yet. We haven't gotten to the point of telling them to come outside. And what are the progressive talking heads on television openly rooting for the United States to lose anyone? Where are the people? Clearly this has failed. We've expected it. No one expected it to be a median. If they did, they wouldn't be telling them to stay inside. You're being lied to by members of the American media because they want Iran to win. Media of their talking heads or people who used to talk to the Iranian government. They're now telling you what the Iranian people are thinking. They don't even talk to the Iranians anymore because they're dead. The American press corps is running an operation on behalf of the Iranian government, a government that wants you dead and American reporters and analysts are cheering on that government because they hate Donald Trump so much. Hello and welcome, Mitzirah Kurekson here, 877-973-745. Should you wish to be on the program, I would be absolutely happy to have you. Once I got to just, I'm really appalled with the people rooting against the American military just so they can own Donald Trump. It really is that bad. I find it absolutely ridiculous to see so many people in the press openly cheering on a loss by the United States solely because of Donald Trump. I want you to think about that because these people only support America if they're in charge of it. Their presumption is that if the United States is not theirs to control that it's bad. The data consistently shows that in the United States of America, conservatives support the United States regardless of whose in power. It fluctuates plus or minus 5%. With Democrats, however, a majority of Democrats, a majority of progressive Democrats in particular, only support the United States when they themselves control the White House otherwise they oppose it. We're seeing that now in this situation. Iran is a mortal threat to the United States and to the world. Iran has been killing Americans since 1979. We absolutely should be doing what we can to overthrow that regime. We absolutely could and should be helping the Iranian dissidents and it doesn't mean boots on the ground at a full scale invasion of Iran, but it means wiping out so many of the bad guys. This is our program sponsored by Van Allen Golf, a LLE and Van Allen Golf dot com maker of excellent golf equipment, text golf, text golf, GOLF to 33777, I'll send you a link to Van Allen Golf dot com where you can check them out on Instagram as well. I love them. I have their putter. I want to go play golf today. 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