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STOP Drafting Fantasy Football Teams Until You Watch This (Ben Gretch)

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STOP Drafting Fantasy Football Teams Until You Watch This (Ben Gretch)

The discussion focuses on identifying mid-round fantasy football values for 2026 drafts. Jameson Williams stands out as a prime target, with analysts Theo Greminger and Ben Gritch highlighting his fifth-year breakout potential. Williams ran the fifth-most routes among wide receivers last season, showed improved target stability late in the year, and benefits from a Lions offense that will be more concentrated after losing David Montgomery. His efficiency, both vertically and after the catch, suggests his high yards-per-target rate is sustainable, and the team plans to involve him more in the red zone. The analysts also compare rookie receivers Jordan Tyson and Kahlil Tate, favoring Tyson due to his consistent college volume and better offensive fit with the Saints, while Tate’s vertical profile and competition for targets raise concerns. Parker Washington is another value, with strong advanced stats post-trade deadline, though his role in Jacksonville is uncertain. Josh Downs offers similar upside at a cheaper cost, with a clear path to targets in Indianapolis. Overall, the key theme is identifying players with untapped upside or improved situations, emphasizing volume, efficiency, and offensive concentration as critical factors for fantasy success in 2026.

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Which mid-round values do you need to make part of your draft strategy in 2026? Theo Greminger, lead fantasy analyst here at Rotawire, joined today by Ben Gritch. We're going to be breaking down some players that you need to identify before you go into your drafts that could help win leagues. And let's talk about a player we're both very much into. Going in the sixth round in a lot of formats, it feels like there was a lot more buzz with Jamison Williams at this time last year than today. What are you value with Jamison Williams? Is it the spike weeks? Is it the quality of the offense? Is it a mix of both? And do you think we could see his best season as a pro in 2026? I think it's more the. I'm already throwing out branding here, but I have a new podcast called The Long View. It's more the Long View. I mean fifth-round, fifth-year breakouts are rare. But Jamison Williams has had a rocky first four years. His third season, he had 470-ish routes. It was his first time over 250 because the first couple of years he had the. He was coming off the ACL tear out of college and he has the betting thing. The vibes on him were so bad early in his career. It seemed like he was going to be a clear bust. That was the whole discussion on him early. On the field, I can't get on the field. He's having issues off the field, but when he started playing, he was having other issues. He finally gets up to a pretty full-time role in 2024, but even still only about 470-ish routes. Last year, he's over 600 routes. He was a fifth. He ran the fifth most routes among any White or Seaver in the NFL per PFF. And his targets per out came back down a little bit. And I think people are. People are, I think, a little bit too fixated on the San La Porta splits. He wasn't as good in the first half of the year. La Porta gets hurt. He really breaks out in the second half. I mean, when I say it really breaks out, he was at pacing for over 1400 yards in the second half of the year, post-by after the La Porta injury, which is like the final 10 games or whatever it was. It was a pretty sizable sample. Now, yes, La Porta was out, but I also think they were kind of inevitably heading for more James and Williams in the second half regardless. He was kind of getting forgotten about. You look back at 2024 when La Porta was in. There was a little more balance there. I think people have looked at the two years and tried to make this narrative that La Porta has crushed Jameson that I don't buy. But I also think this office is going to be hyper fixated. This is a team that had a bunch of guys that they drafted really well from 2021 to 2023 that they've had to give extensions to. They had to let Dave Montgomery go. They had to let even guys like Khalifa Raymond go. And all of the guys that they brought in this off season for depth, veteran depth are on really cheap one-year deals. All of like Isaiah Pacheco, Tyler Conklin, Greg Dorch, they brought on like Cedric Wilson. They're all on one-year deals under $2 million. It's all a reflection of all of these second contracts hitting at the key spots. Well, what's going to happen? All those guys are earning their prime. They're going to have to really lean on those guys. It's going to be very concentrated. I think this year between Gibbs, who I think is going to have a monster year and is it clear? 101, Almanra, La Porta, and then Jameson Williams. Williams is really the one I would fixate on because you have only like sort of a smaller sample of him in a really huge role. But I think he's going to run 600 routes again or push forward if he's healthy, right? And then I do think you have the really strong efficiency after the target. He's had great yards per target stuff. It's both vertical. He gets the deep stuff. But his A-dots, not like super high like an Alc Piers or a Christian Watson. It's actually come way down the last two years when he's been better. They do a lot of horizontal stuff with him using his speed laterally. And his ball in hand is really, really strong. His catch and run is yak per reception. Very strong. So there's a lot of reasons why I think is really astronomical yards per target may actually stick because he does it both before and after the catch point. The A-dots is lower than pure deep threats. And he's got, yeah, the, you know, the, the, the, before and after includes the ball and hand stuff. There's a lot of stuff I really like about the package. Then you add all the routes from last year. It wasn't a perfect season. The second half, the most recent stuff, it was very, very strong. We finally saw a consistent target volume. Look at the last like six games of his season last year. He was seven plus targets and, and most of them typically hasn't been a lot of eight, nine, ten target games from him throughout his career. That's been sort of the point that it's boom bust. There was more stability down the stretch late last year. There's a lot of stuff about his profile that I think is going under the radar because he's been volatile through four years where it could all come together. Feels like this is the year where this is the, the career season for him and a very concentrated offense as I was talking about. I think he's a smash at ADP. You know what I've been really interested about. He obviously gives you all of those big play potential like we've seen in multiple years. The target volume's gone up. I love the fact that when Dan Campbell took over over the second half of the year, it was just like like ascension for James and Williams. But we've heard Drew Petsing talk about challenging James and Williams to be more physical and then praising him about it. And we've heard Dan Campbell sort of like just praising him continually in camp. And one little little thing that I've read is Drew Petsing wants to get him more involved in the red zone. Last year, he only had one touchdown in the red zone. He only had nine targets in the red zone. So they've got a plan to use him there. I think it was three total receptions in the red zone in 2025. And it was one single touch. And I think it was that Washington game. So if we see the concentrated effort to get him involved in that regard, it just adds another wrinkle to the upside scenario. And I love that you brought up sort of the fifth year breakout because for James, it was like a complete zero those first two years. I'm completely with you. And it's also an offense that were you sort of on the same path here Ben with me that I think the loss of David Montgomery. We're going to see way more explosive plays for Detroit in general. They're going to be very efficient running the ball, obviously with with Jameer Gibbs. But now Patechekos banged up. There's not like that second running back that can sort of bog things down. It feels like explosive wheels up for a number of lions. Yeah, I think the Montgomery thing is key. Like they've kind of had five lions. They've always tried to keep him happy and like involved last year. Really random stat I found in my projections was last year. Their number three running back had almost no volume. The year prior Craig Reynolds had whatever it was 30 carries or something. It's not a huge amount. But they would give Craig Reynolds garbage time work a couple of years ago last year because they were leaning more into Gibbs and Montgomery wasn't really thrilled about it was sort of if you're reading the tea leaves. They would start started to give all the garbage time work to Montgomery to like appease him to get him like more work. Even though like it didn't make any sense, you wouldn't necessarily want to put him at risk in those situations. But they did it a lot more. They were hyper concentrated on just Gibbs and Montgomery in terms of total touches last year relative to the prior seasons. And it was this reflection of kind of what you were talking about where like they always made sure to get work for Montgomery. Campbell had a quote earlier this off season about Gibbs where he was like he's going to be our bell count now. Like it's you know pretty clear that they're not seeing Isaiah Pacheco in the same way as Montgomery like to your point. And so yes, that is a massive for Jimmy or Gibbs. But it's also massive for the whole offense that like you were saying, it kind of bogs things down. You're going from a five man core down to a four man core. I think because of that, that's sort of the kind of unspoken thing I was talking about when people really emphasize the Laporta, James and splits. I think there are more paths for both Laporta and James into Coexist as well going forward. But yeah, the James and stuff to me is the clearest one. The Porta. I mean, he's interesting too, but coming off our herniated disc, I have a little bit of concern about the re-injury and some of those things. People treat James and like he's hyper volatile. And I mean, I think you're missing that there's been more stability. It's been a quiet off season. It was a quiet year last year. He got out there and ran the fifth most routes in the NFL at wide receiver last year. That would have been on her to have, you know, two, three years ago early in his career. When we're like, man, is this guy ever going to play that second season? His biggest napshare was in their playoff loss to the Niners. He was kind of working up still throughout the year. He had a couple touchdowns in that game. And then the third season, it's like, yeah, he's actually involved more. They who'd get praise for run blocking. It's like we're finally seeing him do all the little things a little bit. Last year it was all there. This off season. It's been nothing but positive. I mean, he's locked in. He is in the middle of his prime now. People I think are missing the force for the trees with him a little bit. Yeah, we're both in on James and Williams. Curious your thoughts on the two rookie wide receivers, Jordan Tyson and Carl Tate. Tate usually goes inside of the sixth round. And for a while, we were getting seventh round Jordan Tyson. It feels like that is about to end. The Tyson drumbeats are just phenomenal right now out of New Orleans. But both of these players have elite draft capital. They're both very talented. And they're on offenses where they seem like they're going to be focal points. Are you open minded to drafting both of them? Or is there one that stands out to you when looking at the two of them sort of collectively? I'm more into Tyson. I like the production profile college a little bit better. The Tate draft capital is obviously fantastic. When I was talking about James and I I referenced that point of both before and after the catchpoint. Both of these guys have some concerns with the ball and hand stuff that came up around draft season, dynasty stuff for Tate, especially. He's got a really high A dot. And you're talking about a most of his production being vertical ariards type production. There's not a lot after the catchpoint with him. Now he looks awesome. And camp he's making one hand to catch his high point balls. That's his skill set. He's very, very good at that. I think that's why they took him so high. It's the same reason that the packers paid Christian Watson and the Colts paid Alec Pierce. Is this vertical explosive skill set is really important to the modern NFL meta where defenses are trying to take away explosives. It doesn't necessarily make them the most valuable players for fantasy because those explosive plays vertically. A lot of It is, we've talked about them being like, like Matt Harmon has that term sacrificial X and there's that idea of like, this player's better for the NFL team than the fantasy team that goes back to like, Deshan Jackson, I remember always hearing that about, right? This guy runs off safeties and then there's targets that go underneath. This is a volume game that we play. For me, with Tate, there's a lot of room for him to get a lot of volume underneath, but Wanda Robinson has 140 targets both of the last two years and people just act like that's chop liver because he's short. I mean, I guess, you know, Kyle Murray's short too and everyone acts like, Kyle Murray's chop liver, like we're just, we are really high anti-hight right now as a fantasy football community. But anyway, Wanda Robinson, I think, is a guy who's gonna earn a lot of volume in the shorter areas of the field. Carnal, it's tough for rookie receivers to step in and be monster volume guys. Even the big hits, I've talked about this before, you go back to like, Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson, both those guys had two targets per game more as sophomores than their rookie seasons and the rookie seasons were huge hits. Both of those guys, the point is, it's really tough to step right into huge, huge volume and especially when your collegiate profile is sort of specific. It's, you know, you were a vertical threat, you weren't necessarily a producer all over the field. And so that's an element that concerns me for Tate as well. But Tyson's profile, a lot more, a lot more interesting at all the different depths. Let me tell you how roto wire fantasy football leveled up for 2026. I'm the o-greminger lead fantasy analyst right here at roto wire. For 25 years, roto wire has been your one stop shop for fantasy football. Now in 2026, I've joined the team alongside Ian Harted springing you the same championship level rankings that I'm gonna use this year in all of my high stakes drafts against some of the best players in the entire world. At roto wire, you're still gonna get access to our top rated mock draft simulator, an amazing tool to get you ready for draft day. Plus, during the draft, you're gonna get access to draft assistant. And you're gonna get our award winning app to carry you from draft day all the way through the end of your season on championship week. Plus, our breaking news and injury alerts, so you're never caught off guard. And you're gonna get that breaking news before the rest of your league. New for 2026, something very exciting. NFL all access direct discord access to me, as well as Ian Harted's Jim Coventry Jagger May and the rest of our award winning staff. And this is for players who want an additional edge with your strategy, with your tough lineup decisions right here at roto wire. Sign up today and use the code Theo20. And it's gonna get you 20% off of any roto wire subscription. You're gonna get access to all of my rankings, all of my articles, and every amazing tool we have on the site. Let's go crush some leagues. (whooshing) I have fewer concerns about that with Tyson. He's a guy who earned a high rate of volume. A higher targets per out run throughout college, very consistent volume earner. He does have a little bit of a higher aid op, but he was able to do it at different depths. It seems like, and then you just have a better offense, I think too, the Saints are gonna be more up tempo, they're gonna throw quite a bit. It seems like he's gonna be able to step into, I think a pretty solid target share. I think the concern with him for people is, look you have Chris Alave there and Tate doesn't have that threat. I just don't know that it's that simple in the modern NFL. But I do think that Tyson's in line to see a lot of targets. - Yeah, I think for me, it's, I've been very abusive with my praise for Carnot Tate all off season long. I love him in dynasty, and I really still, I'm open-minded to him in Redraft, but he's sort of going alongside, Jameson Williams, going alongside Parker Washington, sort of like we talked about. Where Jordan Tyson's going next to guys like Marvin Harrison, like Brian Thomas Jr., and for me, it's just easier to sort of make a, make an argument to taking Tyson in that range. So, opportunity cost is definitely in Tyson's favor. I'm think I'm a little more open-minded than you are to draft and Carnot Tate still, but yeah, seventh round Tyson versus sixth round Tate, it's easily going in that seventh round direction. But let's talk about Parker Washington, 'cause I think it's almost like a law that I can't go two days on this show without having a guest that wants to say, nice things about Parker Washington. I just had Scott Barrett on. That's one of his guys, all off season long. You're also very open-minded to drafting Parker Washington, sort of in this sixth round range. - Yeah, I mean, I think the drum beat has been really positive. It's an offense that from the early off season, I wanted to try to figure out, I thought there was a lot of ways it could go. I don't necessarily love playing into Brian Thomas, just because the vast majority of his breakout as rookie year came with Mac Jones and the fit with Trevor Lawrence has not been strong. Lawrence has had a lot of guys that look like Parker Washington that have been productive over his years. He's kind of liked the slot receiver, Kirk had a good year, but even like a stretch with Jamal Agnew and some of those things. So it wasn't particularly surprising when Parker Washington broke out, but after the Chugoby Myers trade from week 10 on, he had the third, through the postseason, he had the third best yards per out run football behind Pukin' Akua and Jackson Smith and Jigbae. He didn't run a massive number of routes and that's part of the concern is they may still be rotation, rotational, there's a lot of discussion. I think there's way too much certainty about role right now. There's a lot of discussion about how he's gonna play in the slot and Travis Hunter's gonna play outside and people are like saying very definitively what Parker Washington's role is going to be. And I think you just absolutely can't know that. I don't even think the Jigbaeers know that. You look at what they were going into last season with and where they wound up towards the end of the season. They were going into the season thinking Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter was gonna play a tournament on offense, these two first round picks are gonna be their main receivers. By the end of the year, they've traded for Jigbae Myers. They're using Parker Washington at time. It looks completely different. 17 game seasons are a little bit chaos. But yeah, I mean, I'm into the player. I'm into the pro-fathers, a lot of intriguing advanced stats and things like that. He's not particularly expensive, frankly. I mean, he is at a palatable price, even though he's rising. If he is like the key player, again, if he's able to do anything close the way he was able to do down the stretch last year where he had that third best yards per out run from the Jigbae Myers trade on. I mean, that's a massive number. It's just tricky. It's tricky when you're looking at a guy who doesn't have necessarily, I mean, people will talk about his prospect profile as being better than he gets credit for, but he doesn't have a massive prospect profile behind him. He didn't have massive production prior to last year. He has some spurts of interesting production prior to 2025, but it's a tricky bet relative to some of the longer view profile-based things that I like to usually focus on. Parker Washington, if you wanna hear my thoughts on him, you can tune back to about 15 shows in the last 25 days. So I won't even share anything there, but I will follow up that you're also very high on Josh Downs, who sort of offers a little bit of Parker Washington-esque value, but multiple rounds later. Alec Pierce, the vibes could not be worse in terms of the injury and not knowing when he's gonna come back to the field. And there's really a lack of wide receiver target competition for Josh Downs. We've also had a number of coaches pointing out that he could be on the field at all times. Multiple beat reporters also pointing out that he should be on the field in 12 personnel, let alone 11 personnel. Downs is an interesting one. He feels like a player who could take on a very high number of targets on this Indianapolis team. - Yeah, I mean, I think early in the offseason, people were overvaluing the contract with Alec Pierce. I talked about it when I talked about Tate, but I think some of these vertical threats are getting more investment from teams, both in the way of contract and then in the way of, for Tate, I was saying it in the way of obviously draft capital, because of their role to a scheme. I think if you are the cult, it makes perfect sense. When you have to make a decision between Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, to let Pittman go and to keep Pierce, because Pierce is doing something that you can't replace. But with Pittman out of the picture, you have Tyler Warren, you have Josh Downs, you have guys that can replace 8.5 ADOT or whatever it was last year, below average for a wide receiver. Alec Pierce's ADOT last year was over 20. I mean, we're talking about a massive, massive figure. There were only, I was doing my research on Pierce in the offseason. There were only a couple guys that have had 1000 yard seasons with ADOTs over like 17 in the last, however many 20 years. I think one of the most recent ones was at Decheon Jackson season or something like that. But I think one was a Sammy Wacken season. And Pierce did have a 1000 yards last year. He only had 49 catches. I don't think people realize it like it was a lot of bombs. It was a lot of great plays, a lot of contested catches, great stuff like that. But the same reason with prospects, we worry about contested catch rate. It's like you're too reliant on highly volutable, highly volatile deep, deep place. Deep efficiency is a challenging thing. And even if it's there for a guy like Pierce in a season like you had last year, again, you're talking about like 50 catches. We want volume in fantasy. He had just over 1000 yards. He didn't have some 1500 yard season. Point being, I think a lot of people, and not Pierce has the ankle issue and everything else. But people early on were thinking Pierce's A dot's going to come down. He's going to replace some of that Michael Pitman work. Never really made a lot of sense to me because then who's running the vertical routes? That's what you're paying out Pierce for. You still need somebody to run those vertical routes to make schemes work. It doesn't really, like Pierce is running intermediate routes because that's what you want fantasy doesn't add. The Josh Downs is not running 20 yards down field with regularity. They'll do different things. You can run Ashton Doolin, I guess. But I just don't think that's going to be a consistent threat on safety and things like that. So anyway, Pierce will probably get some opportunities like that when he is healthy. But the thing I've liked about Downs is how his production maps more directly to what Pitman left, right? And that's what I really like about Tyler Warren, as well. Those are guys that I'm a big fan of. These are tricky decisions. I mean, it's funny. You have me on the World War II. We're talking this round six to 10 range. All of these situations we're talking about, the Jigs, all the different situations. We're trying to parse different teammates. The reason the ADPs are in this range is, it is a massive, challenging thing to figure out. This is where leagues are gonna be won a loss last year. I think if you look back to 2025, one of the things that people are missing right now in 2026 from like a draft strategy perspective, is a lot of the picks in this range were misses. I mean, I look back on some of the leagues that I actually had wins. I've talked about like contingency based drafting and drafting with for a lot of redundancy for a lot of years. You look back at teams at one last year. A lot of them had like, they had really good first and second round picks 'cause a lot of the early picks actually hit. They had like one other hit. If you hit on JSM in the third round or George Pickens in the fifth or James Cook in the fifth, that was it, man. You paired that with a first and second round pick. You probably won your league. I do a 5K with Leoni and Pat and Pete every year. We won our 5K with a Christian McCaffrey, Pukin' Akua Start, where we basic, I think we had a Teteromic Millon like the third round who was like solid. Basically missed on every pick from round four to like round 12. And one of five K league, we hit on like, Kenneth Gainwell and we picked up Christian Watson off the wave wire, somebody cut him when he was hurt. I think we picked up Alec Pierce. We navigated the wire well, but that's what 20, 25 seasons were like because in a 20, in a 17 game season, there's a lot of variability throughout a season. There was a lot of injury stuff going on. There's a lot of different schematic things happening. We've talked about the different tight ends and stuff all throughout this off season. Fantasy people have talked about it constantly. When you're going into drafts, I think you need to realize that you're gonna have a lot of misses in these ranges. You're looking for the guys who can be the real difference maker, the league winners, the real extreme hit. So anyway, a guy like Downs to me could be that. If he gets the extra route volume and a two wide receiver set, he really racks up the volume that's vacated from the Michael Pittman thing. Those targets gotta go somewhere. I think Downs gotta have a really monster here. He's also one of the guys that I think has really mispriced in this range. There's a lot of dudes were to me. It's harder to see the really dynamic ceiling. And I think there's gonna be, again, a lot of misses probably. That's just the way that we're heading. Like it's not fun, but that's how the NFL operates offensively now. It's like there's gonna be a lot of lack of concentration and different things that happen throughout seasons that are gonna actually take points off the board. I think thinking through redundancies and contingency planning when you're drafting and those things really imported this round six to round 10 range. So anyway, just a little tangent. But I think it's a key when we talk about these kinds of players. Which ones are worth targeting? Yeah, and I think you sort of nailed it from a macro sense is when you go through the mid rounds, you can have a smaller group of targeted players as long as you sort of understand ADP. But I think it's very important to understand upside, understand attacking that upside swings. You're not necessarily looking for singles here. You're looking for guys that can make an impact and sort of really crush their ADP. Getting a guy whose wide receiver 40 and he finishes as the wide receiver 36, that doesn't help you. But if you're able to get a wide receiver 40 and he's wide receiver 20, that's how you win a league like an edge like that. And I think it's also just avoiding landmines, going through and saying, what's the chance that this guy is higher drafted next year? I think that's always a fun little mental exercise. And that sort of rules out a number of guys. And if it's an older player, just how locked in are they? So really good stuff from you. You mentioned the long view with you and Jacob Sanderson. Jacob's been on this show. Let me know sort of where they can find that show and what you guys are doing. Yeah, and a long view with all the different podcasts, locations and over on YouTube. We're just getting going. We've only done three or four episodes now and kind of covering some stuff. I still have stealing bananas, rolling. We'll be doing some more episodes soon. Sean Seagull been taking a little bit of time. But yeah, two podcasts there and then the newsletter, stealing signals. Yeah, highly recommend all of Ben's work. It's really good stuff. Stealing signals, if you want like long form fantasy football, written content, Ben, you go super deep on those and the in season, really good. Are you the, you get, never get really credit for this. Are you, you're the, you're the dead zone. Dead zone was your term originally. You kind of brought dead zone into the common vernacular. Talk a little bit about that and also green zone. I think that's your term as well. I can't remember. I took green zone from somebody, but and then dead zone. The reason I never like claimed ownership of it is I wrote about that when I was at CBS. My editor, Chris Towers actually came up with the headline, the catch, the dead zone. I wrote about this range of running backs and did a whole big study on it. And then, and then he titled it, the running back dead zone and you know, sort of the rest is history. So I got to give Chris Towers the shout out. It was my content, yes, that, that, that I think started that, that concept or led to that, that sort of concept. And then that same offseason, Jack Miller over at ETR was doing a lot of work as well and was using the term a lot as well. But yeah, the dead zone stuff, I've done a ton of research on over the years. I like to use the term green zone to talk about rush attempts from the 10 yard line and in as opposed to the red zone. Some people use the five yard line and in. There's been a lot of work done on obviously, like scoring potential in those ranges. You have like expected fantasy points and stuff. Back when I was at RodoViz years and years ago, we had the model for expected points and fantasy points over expected. They still have it over there. But they use an average of point scored at every yard line. And if you look at that, the potential for fantasy points from the like a carry from the one yard line is incredibly high. And it goes down, it starts to flatten after the 10 yard line. So a lot of people like the five yard line and in. But the six, seven, eight, nine is still a higher touchdown rate, a higher expected point rate than like the 11, 12, 13. But when you get to the 11, 12, 13 and beyond, it's pretty flat like throughout the rest of the field in terms of what your expected points are going to be on a carry on those things. So I've always used a 10 yard line and in I call it the green zone. That's where touchdown production per like touch per attempt tends to start to flatten. So that's where you see an elevated rate. Obviously every yard line is you get closer to the goal line. It's going to be higher. Yeah, excellent stuff. It's scaling signals really, really strong reads. Let's talk about the green bay packers wide receiver room. I've had a lot of people coming on this show, including myself, making a bowl argument for Christian Watson. But you've also got like a really concentrated wide receiver room in green bay this year, where I've also drafted a good amount of Matthew Golden. And I also like Jaden Reed. How are you approaching this wide receiver room? Are you looking to draft all of these guys or are you specifically targeting one or two? I mostly plan the cheap way through Reed and Matthew Golden. I think they're both really interesting. Golden obviously had the up and down rookie season. I don't think it was disqualifyingly bad if you had reasonable expectations. It's tough that he didn't play a ton, but the packers have done that before with some young guys. They think of themselves as draft and developmental as a whole organization. That's been a philosophy for them for decades. They clearly clear the decks for him this off season. It gets back to a similar thing to what I was talking about with the Colts, which is the vacated targets are all the intermediate routes. And Watson does some of that stuff. He does more of it than Alec Pierce. He says, hey, that's not quite as high as Alec Pierce, but he hasn't done a ton of that stuff. And Watson for throughout his career is mostly thrived on efficiency. And so I think you're paying with him for a little bit of a role evolution that isn't necessarily guaranteed to come. And it's not necessarily guaranteed to come with the same efficiency. Like the he could add some volume and some intermediate ranges, but we could also lose some efficiency. He was incredibly efficient down field last year, which is great. But again, the deep efficiency tends to be a little bit volatile year over year. Now the difference with him when I was making the Pierce point about like, who's going to run the deep stuff? Like Jane Reed does run some deep routes. And Matthew Golden is like a burner and was run some deep routes last year. So there's a lot of route concepts where they can use those guys interchangeably. Run those guys deep and then have Watson come underneath. I think that's a little bit more interchangeable with the skill sets of the White receivers in Green Bay than it is in Indy in my perception. I could be certainly wrong on any of these takes at any point. That's one of the huge things we have to keep in mind with fantasy. Obviously, but my take with Watson is that Golden is this guy that is more likely to earn a lot of that intermediate volume. And they've talked about using him at the X. And then with Reed, I mean, there's been some camp stuff that they're going to use. Read a little bit on the two White receiver sets eventually. I've had my fair share of misses with Jaden Reed, where I've been hoping for him to actually play in two White receiver sets over the last few years. Now would be the time. Now was the time where they don't have as much White receiver depth. It was a lot more obvious for them with with dogs and some other guys and even Wix that they may not need to use read in those ways. It's a lot more concentrated now. They really only have the three receivers are really going to lean on those guys. Christian Watson's had his injury issues in the past. Matthew Golden may be a bust. What have you? I think there's a lot of scenarios where they're going to need to lean on read a little bit more. So I my thought on this is there's a lot of market confidence of Watson's going to be the top White receiver score. I don't see that at all. I don't I'm not that confident that he's going to be the top White receiver score in this offense. I'd rather play it through the cheaper options because I think it's fairly uncertain. I think both Golden and Reed have some materially positive, you know, forward looking cases. You can make a fairly negative backward looking case on Golden, but the idea that he could replace some of that intermediate volume, the idea that Reed could be in more two wide receiver sets. They it makes them both potential breakout bets to be that sort of wide receiver forward to who finishes wide receiver 20 as you are outlying. Some way more bullish on Christian Watson than you are, but I'm very open minded to drafting the other two wide receivers. I took Golden in a main event. I think it was around 10 value for him, which I was really comfortable paying that price tag, where I think they all have contingent upside because the fourth wide receiver looks like it's probably gonna be Savion Williams who's sort of a Swiss Army knife type that they are as positivity on and camp, but I think he would be a sort of a limited target upside type guy. You've also got the potential with Tucker Kraft. If there's any sort of reagervation of his injury, now Luke Musgrave is injured, there really wouldn't be a pass catching tight end. And I think just collectively as a team, after two big disappointing NFL playoff losses in a row, last year the close one to Chicago, and then two years ago just getting woodshedded by the Eagles, things have got to change a little bit, and I think there's pressure on LaFlora to take the next step. So I think being a little bit more pass happy as a team, but yet Reed's definitely an electric talent. He's, they also gave him a contract extension. I think eighth round value for him, like sort of near a Josh Downs, maybe ninth round in some leagues makes sense. And then Matthew Golden, you're getting the benefit that there are certain drafters who are completely dismissing him because of how disappointing the rookie season was, and they didn't necessarily like him as a prospect, but I'm open-minded to all those guys. I think they're really fun. Fantasy football season is right around the corner, and draft Kings is bringing you their biggest bestball contest ever. We're talking a massive $20 million in total prizes, making this the largest bestball tournament in draft Kings history. And this year, not just one, but three players are gonna walk away as millionaires. And right now, our partners at draft Kings are giving all customers a can't miss offer. Draft one, get one. 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Connecticut call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. 18 plus in most states, restrictions apply, one per customer, enter the bestball $20 million and headliner contest to get one bonus entry. $25 entry fee required. Reward expires a contest lock September 9th, 2026. C terms at DraftKings.com/Promotions. Sponsored by DraftKings. Let's pivot over to the tight end position. How underrated is Harold Fanon Jr. right now, who a player that had really an exceptional rookie season, and now the market is sort of beating up a little bit, he's going in the sixth round, sometimes the fifth round in FFPC tight end premium, but I'm looking over it like NFFC, he's going somewhere at the 7-8 turnover there and even lower in some formats like sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo. The market in 2026 loves to double count right now. If Harold Fanon wasn't in a bad offense with bad quarterbacks, he should be right up there with Loveland and Warren. No question. He was a 21-year-old rookie, lettuce team and targets receiving yards, excuse me, targets receptions, yards, and I believe touchdowns as well. I think he lettuce team in every major receiving category. His targets per route run at any like reasonable tight end target, or excuse me, routes threshold, I believe were the highest for any tight end in the league, not among rookies, not among any other cut up you want. He earned a massive amount of volume immediately. The off-season buzz is nothing but positive. You hear Todd Monk and talk about him. He talks about him like he's LeBron James. He's like this guy's like insane. He's, every time he's got the ball on his hand, he's insane, he's all these things. And then you go back again, this long-view stuff, you go back to college, that's what the proposition of Harold Fanon was, was that this guy when he was in college, he wasn't just the best, he didn't just lead all tight ends in receptions in his final year in college. He led all of FBS at all positions in receptions. He was an absolute superstar. And people were like, why, he played a bowling green. He played Penn State and Texas A&M and had monster games against both and bowling green lost by seven and six to these two teams. This big 10 powerhouse and this SEC powerhouse and bowling green almost upset both of them. I think both on the road. And Harold Fanon was the centerpiece of the offense in both games and like, you're not gonna get me with the bowling green. Anyway, regardless, that's neither here nor there he comes in as an age 21 rookie and has the year he has. Yeah, I'm concerned about the offense. We're already pricing that way down. That's already been priced down. You're not having to pay for a year to break out of the likes of which is comparable to Colson Loveland or Tyler Warren. You're getting a massive discount on that. And you shouldn't have to because the Browns do have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. There's real concern that this is gonna be a bit of a disaster in the passing game. They did last year too. And he had 731 yards. He caught 72 balls yet over 100 targets. And he's going into year two. He can get better. Like that's the other element of this. Like we've gone way too used to rookie tight end production as well. That's another big thing I want to emphasize here. I know they brought in a new rookie receivers by the way as well. But Fanon is going to be a massive part of this pass game. But that point about the rookie tight end production. It wasn't just a few years ago that we talked about it like it was impossible. And now we have a 21 year old and age 21 rookie goes and puts up the season he did last year. And the markets like, yeah, whatever. Like we're out on this guy or something. I think it's silly. Todd Monkins offense is going to be way more pass forward than Kevin Stofanski's was. There's a lot more talk of 11 personnel. There's no other tight ends on this roster. David and Joke who's gone Blake Whitehurt Hart is their number two. They drafted like a fifth round or a seventh round where these guys don't have great profiles. Fanon's going to be out there. Every single snap he's going to run one of the biggest route rates of all tight ends. He's in an elite pass catching tight end going into his age 22nd season. And we're already pricing that down. But then people want to keep pushing it further. It's really pretty silly. I'm not like massively in on him because I do think there's a little bit of a cap on ceiling. I like playing the guys ahead of that. But yeah, I think Fanon's massively undervalued. Yeah, and I think you're right. We talked about sort of the year of the tight end on multiple shows where Colston Loveland, I love Brock Bauer's, I love Tyler Warren. I think it's a really fun pick. But when you look at Fanon, you brought up the Mac and all of the elite skill position players that we've seen come out of the Mac over like the last 30 years. Guys like Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Antonio Gates, they all took like a while to ramp up. Harold Fanon was like the youngest tight end in the NFL last year doing it. He nupt David and Joku who was an incredibly productive player there, really just unbelievable quick production. And then the forced mistackle rate was extremely high. The yak ability extremely high. So I think getting the ball in Harold Fanon Jr's hands quickly will help sort of a limited quarterback room there. And I think also I'm very much into Casey Concepcion and Denzel Boston at cost. But it sounds like it's going to be the two rookie wide receivers on the field to start out the year, maybe in two wide receiver sets. They're well ahead of Jerry Judy, according to multiple beat reporters. So like the idea that Harold Fanon Jr. is not going to lead the team in targets again, I think it's a, it's, it would mean Harold, it would mean the Casey Concepcion is an unbelievable fast starter and the ball goes to him more often. But I think it's probably the best bet is still on Harold Fanon Jr. And I think I like a lot of these Cleveland Browns because there's very talented players that are just getting beat up because of the quarterback position. And I think that's a reasonable way to kind of fade people, but very talented players. And if they can just get like the 25th best quarterback production in football, then there's multiple people who can smash here, including Quinch on Juckins, the wide receivers, and certainly Harold Fanon Jr. How else do you play in the tight end position when you get to the Harold Fanon Jr. tier? Are you open-minded to guys like LaPorta who you brought up earlier, questions with the injury, Tucker Kraft, you talked about the wide receivers, Kyle Pitts. It's sort of a little mini tier, followed up by guys like Kittle, followed up guys, but by guys like Isaiah Leickley, Dallas Goddard, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kidcade, et cetera. Did he guys sort of stand out to you in this range? - No, no, I think it's a really tough tight end range. And so, I had said that I still like taking, I don't think Fanon should go with the big four tight ends, and I'm saying he's still massively misvalued. The way that I have it in my rankings is I have a pretty big tier break after the top four guys, and then I have Fanon in his own tier as a tight end five. And I think he should be head and shoulders over the rest of these profiles. Laporta to me is the tight end six in his interesting, but I'm a little bit concerned about the back and the re-injury rate and some of that stuff, but you could definitely get me with Laporta. Pitts's production last year was largely late in the season when London was hurt, and Kurt Cousins was a quarterback, famous check down artist Kurt Cousins, whose torn Achilles in his right leg, meant that he couldn't drive the ball down, feel basically at all, was checking down. And then the idea with Pitts when he came out was this promise of like, we have Calvin Johnson here. He's gonna have a high eight on a tight end who's playing wide receiver. What Pitsis production was last year was a very low AIDOT relative to early in his career. He was an underneath guy. He was a chick that he was a Jake Ferguson, a check down guy underneath late in the down and had a lot of volume and had a lot of catches. Maybe that perpels him toward more of a breakout titan, a weird position. But for me, Pitsis now being dropped, he's priced way up. He's being drafted in this range where I've drafted Pits a ton of times. I was super into the idea of him, the ceiling of him. But he's drafted way in this range where it's like to break out finally came. It did not come in the way that the Kyle Pits optimism story that we were telling you when he was first drafted suggested what he could be in the NFL. That's not how it really came. Tucker Kraft, another guy coming off a major injury. He had over 10 yards after the catch per reception last year. We were talking about that vacated volume in the intermediate range. Kraft's more of a ball and hand catch and run guy. His AIDOT was so low that he doesn't really strike you as a guy who's going to run a bunch of those 10 yard in breaking routes and things that the dobs is vacating. The issue for me is he's a really high efficiency player that has had some volume concerns in the past coming off an injury. You want the volume to really hit where his career high levels are. And for his efficiency to still be there, it's a tough bet at that cost for me. You continue on to some of those other names you mentioned. I have issues with the routes volume for guys like Concade and potentially Isaiah. Likely, although he's getting a bunch of buzz. You got age issues with Kelsey Kittle. Kittle also coming off an injury. There's a bunch of red flags throughout that range. It tightened for me. So to me, it's really I like playing the early stuff. Maybe I'm playing fan in or else I am. I'm really waiting until late. I think it's a pretty long like those profiles to me don't separate massively from the late round guys. Those have been taken a little bit of a hit. Ronda Gatson is another one where I think we're kind of double counting. He's already going so, so late for a year to upside profile. But people just keep pushing him lower because of Charlie Colar excitement out of camp. Kenyan Sadeek had the hernia thing. That's another really fun profile that's taken a bit of a hit. His Ferguson is maybe the really fun upside profile late that I basically I think everyone's on him. I basically hear about him constantly. So it's not like a surprise. But he's the other one that you can make bets on late that I would rather just wait on tie down and either take a stable veteran like the few that I mentioned or one of these upside swings. Let's talk running backs. When we get to round six and on, there's there's few bets to make here because a lot of running backs are getting pulled into the fifth round. Your quick thoughts on Travion Henderson. I've been getting beat up a little bit on my podcast for staying on the Travion Henderson train here. A lot of people are starting to fade Travion Henderson, embrace Ramandrei Stevenson. I just can't quit the kind of upside that he presents to us three games with 28 plus points scored last year. The counting stats were fantastic. I really liked them as a prospect. Then we're seeing positivity with Ramandrei Stevenson early on in camp. The connections he's having with Drake May out of the backfield as a pass catcher. Should I sort of slow my role here? Where are you at on Travion? Are you looking to mix him in? How are you approaching sort of a very difficult player for us to value in fantasy? Yeah, I just, I think there's limited number of these types of profiles. And it's another one where you're talking about double counting. I mean, this is a year two player. He was the only running back on the NFL last year who had four runs of 50 plus yards. This profile coming out, the reason he got drafted in the second round was explosive runs. And he did that as a rookie. You're already getting that price down. If you just said, if you just say that around two back explosive profile had four 50 plus yard runs as a rookie, you're already getting that really priced down. There's a lot of reason to be optimistic at his ADP relative to that. Having said that, he's not cheap. And there are a lot of concerns beyond that. There are a lot of, there is a lot of context beyond that. There are a lot of reasons to worry about Ramonjara Stevenson. I do think going into the year Ramonjara Stevenson is going to be a headache for a Henderson. I do think people who've faded Henderson are going to be victory-lapping on social media in week three. If you're drafting Henderson, be ready for that. Like, they're going to be like, you're an idiot. You're stupid. You're the dumbest. I mean, that's just, that's the way that this all works. I'm sure Scott Barrett's going to be texting me for the first three weeks of season and all that kind of stuff. That's the way that works. But I would go back to Trevin, Henderson, Ramonjara Stevenson last year, where another example of the way that a backfield can evolve over 17 weeks. And really, Ramonjara Stevenson through week 12 or 13, I can't remember, had a 3.2 yards per carry average and a fumbling problem. And then he got efficient with the ball and hand stuff late. And then they rode that into the postseason. And I do think that's where we're going to be week one. I don't think anyone knows, including Josh McDaniel's and Mike Vrable, where we're going to be in week eight or where we're going to be in week 17. There were points earlier in the season where even though they couldn't get Henderson on the field for big snap rates, they were prioritizing Henderson for way more touches on a smaller snap rate than Stevenson because it was worthwhile because the explosive playability was there. Then Stevenson got better with the ball and hand efficiency. And then they were like, oh, well, we'll just keep the guy on the field that doesn't make all these past blocking mistakes and is giving us efficient play. But if Stevenson starts to stumble, if he's not efficient early, if Henderson hits for some big plays, there's a lot of things that can happen in NFL season. There's way too much certainty here. You are getting a price down year two player who was efficient in the way he's supposed to be who could get better at past blocking, could improve in a variety of ways. Players get better going into year two. This is the type of market certainty I was talking about when I was talking about with Harold Fanon. That doesn't mean I'm all in on Henderson. I'm not. He's a really hard click. I mean, honestly, he's a tough click. But in part because you know that the early part of the season is probably not going to go well, but you're not going to be able to acquire him from people who drafted him. Even if you're in trade leagues and especially in higher stake stuff, there are limited profiles like this. I do think you want a little bit of exposure. Stevenson could get it hurt. There's a lot of things that could lead to Travion Henderson breaking out more, being more consistent in year two. One of the stats that my ceiling bananas podcast co-host Sean Seagull would routinely say last year is what the SIS data they have over a road of his, Henderson would rank like as one of the highest guys in the league in percent of the correct hole hit. And Seagull's point was he needs to learn to freestyle a little bit more. He's running where the play is designed, where the blocking is designed, even on plays where some other running backs are using vision to cut back and things. Well, that's a rookie mistake, right? That's like, but like it's not an uncorrectable mistake when you get more feel as you learn the running back position to when to bounce it, when to cut outside. And it's not a thing that's really going to make coaches angry that you're actually running where the play is blocked too often, right? That's not necessarily going to be something horrible for a guy like Henderson. The bigger issue is the past blocking stuff, some of those things. But I mean, guys grow into year two and year three. Maybe he's just never going to be capable as a past protector in those things. I get the impression that the muddled fronts and the different past rush stuff that the defensive lines have been doing has caused problems for offense, veteran offensive linemen, not just running backs. But I think we saw that in a lot of places last year where Bayesville, Tuton, Godhit for some of this stuff, RJ Harvey was never supposed to be a good past blocker, but couldn't be out there on past blocking. The young running backs, not knowing how to handle NFL past protections in the back field was kind of a theme. And I think is more about what the defenses are doing in things. And these guys are going to grow into it. Some other players that are capable veterans at that had had to take time to grow into that stuff over time as well. You got to learn these things. And anyway, I think there's a lot of room for Henderson to have a different year two than a year one. And I think that's where we're going to be. Dan Van der Danwell had 85 targets. There were six receivers who had 85 plus targets last year, or running backs, excuse me. The other five are all going in like the first two rounds. It's all the guys that you think, Devon H. H. Hansen, there, B. John Robinson, Jamir Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Chase Brown is the other one. And then Ash and Gentie comes in around like 70 something. Those are the only seven guys above 60 running back targets last year. So this gap between 60 and 85, only one guy fell in there. That was Gentie. Of the top six I named five, the sixth one was Ken with Gainwell. He's the, this is the only spot where you have all this running back target volume, which we know that running back receiving is so massive. And it's not priced into 80p at all. Whether it's Warren. So then the other side of this is, I mentioned there's only seven guys that are over 60 running back targets. Gainwell had 85, Warren still had 45. I mean, he's right there in that next tier. Like, there's a lot of number one running backs who had about 45 to 55 targets last year. He was the clear number two behind a massive amount of target volume for Ken with Gainwell. Whether it's Warren or whether it is Rico Dowdell who I'm also vaguely into, I think there's a lot of ppr floor in this backfield. Aaron Rogers running backs, if I always scored well in fantasy, and it's really for this reason, when he's with the jets briefly, he was throwing to Breeze Hall of Tund, even like Braylon Allen was catching a bunch of stuff. Isaiah Davis had some interesting receiving stuff in very small sample, but like Rogers is, for all of his, you know, idiosyncrasies and where he's at in his career and all this stuff, he's able to process quickly and he's still accurate. And he's accurate in the short area of the field, especially he has on talent. He delivers balls to running backs in space where they can catch it and run, and that is a quarterback skill that I don't think people is paying off attention to. There's some quarterbacks who get the ball to the running back too late and down, or they throw it too hard, they throw an un-catchable ball. We think of like all the running back targets as easily catchable. It's not the way that works. So anyway, Jaylen Warren to me, Barry solid floor, a good player, he's gonna have his rushing production and all that stuff, but Barry solid floor because there's a ton of vacated target volume at running back there. I'm not a big vacated target guy, but I think that's gonna be there for him and Dowdall to split up, already had 45 targets last year. I have him both for like 60 this year at least, with Warren having more upside. I like him both at cost. Brooks is the really high ceiling high floor play. Like, I mean, low floor play, right? Like we don't know what to expect with the health stuff. All of the doctors that I've heard are talking about it like it's favorable. They give him all of last year off. They're giving him plenty of time. They loved him. They drafted him in the second round, knowing he was coming off in ACL. He could have been a first round pick in that class. His profile, the evasion rate, the yards after contact, per attempt, the breakaway rate, the yards per out run, it's a discount Jeremiah love profile. The evasion rate's actually slightly better and mistackles force per touch than Jeremiah loves career. The other three numbers very slightly worse, but in the same kind of ballpark as what Jeremiah love was, love had a lot more volume in college. One of the issues with Brooks is he also didn't have a ton of big volume seasons in college. We don't know whether he's gonna be able to maintain huge volume at the NFL level, but the talent level is clear. The Panthers thought it when they invested in him. They thought the first year was gonna be kind of a throw away. We've now had two throw away years. People are like his career's over. I don't think Carolinas sees it that way. The draft capital stuff signals intent. They wanna get a return on investment out of that second round pick. This is when he's healthy going into year three, two ballast's job last year. Toreco Dattel, I just think Brooks is the clear play there and I've been saying that for months now. And that they at EPs have flipped now. Brooks is going higher, but Brooks is a talent where if he really hits a ceiling and stays healthy, it's, I mean, it's not Jeremiah love, at that exact same level, but it's multiple rounds better. At the same time, there's a ton of risk associated with it. It could be a massive floor. It could have this huge hole, this huge miss in this range, which is a tricky bet to make. So I see these guys as sort of different risk profiles, but both very interesting picks. Yeah, I mean, I think Brooks, if you hit and we get the continued trend of Dave Canales sort of being a running back ADP whisperer, you could end up with Brooks giving you that 14 and a half, 15 point per game season, where he catches a ton of passes and is one of the like the featured weapons along with Tedero and McMillan in this offense. So very limited in Carolina after Jill and Coca or Tedero and McMillan, I think Brooks has a chance to really carve out a major role in the passing game. And Shuba is just so limited in that regard. And Shuba also doesn't produce any explosive plays. I think we could see that with Brooks. And I think Canales has been really, really positive every time he talks about Brooks as well. So really, really an interesting one there. Let's pivot over to the Minnesota backfield. Very quick thoughts on how you're approaching this one. Kyler Murray named the starter. We have faith in Kevin O'Connell sort of getting things right this year, at least better than it was last year. And all of these guys are cheap. Yeah, Aaron Jones is 32 and the peripherals really created last year. He took a discounted contract to stay. At the beginning of the off season, there were some quotes that it seemed like he was definitely going to be gone. Excuse me, he's 31, but it turns 32 on December 2nd. So in season, it'll be his age 32 year this year. But there were some quotes earlier than the off season. It sounded like he would be gone. And then he took a little bit of a restructure, cheaper contract, I think, to come back. I do think he's going to play a decent amount. But I think he's an incredibly hard play in fantasy, because I think you're betting on a declining skill set. And he was still able to be efficient because he can run the space well, and they get him into space well in the perimeter. And he's fast. Even at his age, he's fast. But you're talking about a declining skill set. And then just the hope that he stays healthy and is it more involved than it seems like he's probably going to be. They talked a lot last off season about Jones and Jordan Mason being kind of complimentary players going into the year and interior runner-in and outside runner. Mason's usage fell off late in the year for Jones, which is a little bit of a problem, because Jones was not producing. But it does seem like this off season, they're really into Mason. And so I'm getting increasingly excited about Mason, because I want to fade Jones. And there's not another clear option there than the other option is the day three rookie to Mon Clayborn, who's an intriguing speedster that I think they're viewing as the heir apparent to Jones. He may or may not have a role that as things develop with Jones. But I think there's some potential for him to be a pretty big hit if things do develop favorably for him. Regardless, I think Mason is the guy that I really like from week one through week 17 to be a pretty big part of this rushing attack. I don't think he's probably pretty significantly underpriced as well. There's not a ton of receiving value there, but if this offense is better, he should be the goal line back as well. So yeah, I'm starting to attack him a little bit. Yeah, Scott Barrett and I took Jordan Mason, and I believe it was the 10th round of an FFPC main event. And then we took Clayborn, I believe, and that was round 15, just double tap those guys. I have the same sort of reservations about Aaron Jones. I've mixed Aaron Jones in a little bit in Bestball, but he's been a pure fade when it comes to redraft. Let's talk about the quarterback position briefly, because when you're drafting in rounds six through 10, every single round, there's intriguing quarterbacks who pop up, starting with Lamar Jackson, who sometimes falls into round six. And then you go with Drake May, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels, all the way down to round 10 when you start seeing guys like Deck Press God in the mix. And all the guys really falling. You see Jellen Hertz in there as well. How are you attacking quarterback? Are you looking to attack it in rounds six through 10, or do you want to wait even further in your drafts? There are some really strong late round profiles. So I think the optimal strategy is just to think about it like a late round QB season. In large part because of that huge point I made earlier about how many misses there were in the first 10 rounds for running backs receivers last year, and what you needed to win, like the hits that you needed. I think if you think about it from a perspective that you're gonna have misses early, you want those non-QB picks early to really build receiver depth, to really build running back depth, to really give yourself a lot of shots at enough hits to have a strong team this year obviously. The two players that I'm intrigued by are Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels, the rushing profiles are really strong. When they're healthy, Daniels had the massive ceiling two years ago in 2024. He finished about four points per game better than Josh Allen last year as the QB won in 2025. So I mean you want guys like that if you're gonna pay up that can separate in a meaningful way. I think Lamar has that potential still in him. I think Jaden Daniels is the one where, I mean the rushing attempts per game and yardage has been strong, the health stuff is concerning. The problem with Daniels is I liked the bet before the Laramie tonsil injury. I would have been very interested in Jaden Daniels at this cost and now Laramie tonsils out and I think it meaningfully affects him and it doesn't meaningfully affect the ADP. He's not gonna fall in the way that you lost at number one receiver. He would fall but tonsils a massive, massive miss for the commanders for the whole season now. I think it really hurts Jaden Daniels ceiling outcomes to not have this left tackle that some like ETR's O'Line guru, Brandon Thorn had is like this an underrated top of the line left tackle that was really the centerpiece of a unit. He ranked higher than I saw in a lot of other places and he felt was a better unit because of tonsil and then their right guard Sam Cosmi but like the other three spots were more volatile and tonsil really was the key there and that tonsil's gone. I mean he's out from like probably the entirety of the year with that torn tricep. That is like a bummer for the Jaden Daniels upside case and like I said, you gotta pay the same cost. Like you don't get a, I wanted to play him some when he had tonsil but now that he doesn't have a job, tons old. So I'm just I'm leaning more and more into late round QB and just understanding that I need depth at the non-QB positions early. Yeah, it's certainly a year where if especially in 20 roster spot leagues, you can double tap quarterback really, really easily and sort of wait into QB 2 range. You can also sort of wait for like the end of the QB 1 range and get access sometimes to like 12th round Brock Party, 12th round, deck, press, got it's really a year where I think you need to be open-minded with your approach at quarterback and certainly attack the position when there's not an edge elsewhere. One other player sort of a sleeper for some people in in leagues like ESPN and sleeper and Yahoo, a player who go pretty deep and then for FFPC NFFC managers, you're still talking about a 10th rounder. Let's end the show with your thoughts on Keaton Mitchell. I know that's the player that you're very bullish on at cost. Yeah, I wrote a big piece on him a little more than a month ago and people have been sending me all the camp clips. His price has been skyrocketing since then, but I call the don't let them don't listen to the boomers about Keaton Mitchell and then in my sub title was just because he's small fast and fun doesn't mean there's meat to the profile. This is a guy who was a workhorse in college. A lot of people are like he's not tovon H&N and Mike McDaniel's coming over from Miami. There are a lot of similarities there. I mean you go read the piece. I obviously emphasize that he has not had the production that H&N's had. They gave him five million fully guaranteed for a former UDFA who's only had like 140 touches in the NFL. There was a pretty strong commitment there. Mike McDaniel put up some lauded posters apparently and all this stuff, but I think there's going to be a lot of passing to the running backs in this offense. I'm excited about O'Marion Hampton as well. That talked that they're going to use all the backs a little bit concerning for people in the last week. This is going to be a really good offense. There's going to be running back production. They're going to throw to the backs. They've been using Mitchell vertically. Those vaunted running back area yards that I like to talk about over at the newsletter have been really exciting to see in camp. I think they're going to use this little athleticism a lot of different ways and that's going to create a little bit of floor, but I think there's a real ceiling here as well in a McDaniel's offense. If McDaniel has any skill, it is using speed and space. That's why he wanted to keep Mitchell. If he can stay healthy, there's a lot more meat to that profile than I think people realize going back to the college stuff, some of that longer view thinking on the player. So yeah, he's he's not he's not massive, but he's incredibly fast. He had the most clock times by NFL pro at 20 plus miles per hour last year and he did it on 59 carries. The second the tide for second was Jonathan Taylor and Jimmy or Gibbs who both had, you know, 250, 300, 350 carries, whatever it was. Keaton Mitchell is incredibly explosive, arguably the most explosive running back in the league by those clocked metrics. So this is a guy that is one of those outlier types. Yeah, you can you can have a big miss, but the stuff about the receiving that I was emphasizing in the ways that McDaniel used H&N and the similarities between them presents the opportunity for a little bit more floor in PPR leagues than I think people realize as well. So I'm really in. Yeah, he's a fun way to access an offense. I think we're all betting on and certainly feels like a Mike McDaniel guy. I'm with you that I'm not worried about Mike McDaniel saying all three backs are in the utilized. If you're fading, Omar in Hampton because of a throwaway quote from McDaniel who also could have been messing with us a little bit. I mean, we had heard Mike McDaniel say really nice things about Ollie Gordon and Jellen right at multiple times in Miami as well. And it was still all Devon H&N, but completely with you on on Keaton Mitchell, love drafting him in like the 10th, 11th round. The problem is I think, you know, people like yourself keep talking about him, Ben. He's going to go in the eighth round. So we got to we got to scale that back a little bit. But I think that I think we're at the cap. We got to be close to the cap because the guys that had a hammer like we're getting into like the clear number once. He's already risen past all of the contingent number twos. I don't know. I'll probably be wrong. You know how it is with main event season. These guys start flying up boards. Absolutely. Absolutely. Let everybody know once again where they can find your work. Yeah. Stealing signals newsletter. Bengrash.substack.com. The long view. Stealing bananas podcasts. Be doing a guest post over at the athletic this year as well. Oh, awesome stuff over there. Make sure you check out the FFPC main event in Biggerilla targets article that I put out. I'm going to update that. I'm also going to do an NFFC one. Got a lot of great articles over on the site. Go check out Dan Fornic's offensive line rankings article. Terrific stuff from Dan. That article is free over at rotawire.com. And stick with us here at the podcast and YouTube channel. We're dropping daily shows all throughout August. We're going to help you crush your leagues this season.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Jameson Williams is a mid-round target with breakout potential in 2026, thanks to increased route volume, efficiency, and a concentrated Lions offense.
  2. The Lions' offense is expected to be more explosive after losing David Montgomery, benefiting players like Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs.
  3. Jordan Tyson is preferred over Kahlil Tate among rookie wide receivers due to a stronger college production profile and better offensive situation.
  4. Parker Washington is a rising value with impressive advanced stats, though his role remains uncertain in Jacksonville.
  5. Josh Downs offers similar value to Washington but at a cheaper draft price, with a clear path to high target volume in Indianapolis.

Summary:

The discussion focuses on identifying mid-round fantasy football values for 2026 drafts. Jameson Williams stands out as a prime target, with analysts Theo Greminger and Ben Gritch highlighting his fifth-year breakout potential. Williams ran the fifth-most routes among wide receivers last season, showed improved target stability late in the year, and benefits from a Lions offense that will be more concentrated after losing David Montgomery.

His efficiency, both vertically and after the catch, suggests his high yards-per-target rate is sustainable, and the team plans to involve him more in the red zone. The analysts also compare rookie receivers Jordan Tyson and Kahlil Tate, favoring Tyson due to his consistent college volume and better offensive fit with the Saints, while Tate’s vertical profile and competition for targets raise concerns. Parker Washington is another value, with strong advanced stats post-trade deadline, though his role in Jacksonville is uncertain.

Josh Downs offers similar upside at a cheaper cost, with a clear path to targets in Indianapolis. Overall, the key theme is identifying players with untapped upside or improved situations, emphasizing volume, efficiency, and offensive concentration as critical factors for fantasy success in 2026.

FAQs

Jameson Williams is a strong value in the sixth round due to his increased route running, stability in targets late last season, and potential for a career year in a concentrated Lions offense. His efficiency after the catch and reduced A-dot make his production sustainable.

The Lions' coaching staff, including Drew Petsing, has publicly praised Williams and plans to involve him more in the red zone. He had only one red zone touchdown on nine targets in 2025, so increased usage there could boost his touchdown upside.

Montgomery's departure makes the offense more concentrated, shifting from a five-man core to a four-man core with Gibbs, La Porta, and Williams. This likely leads to more explosive plays and increased opportunities for Williams and other key pass catchers.

Jordan Tyson is preferred over Carnell Tate because of his better college production profile, consistent volume earning, and ability to work at different depths. Tate's high A-dot and reliance on vertical plays may limit his fantasy volume, especially with Wan'Dale Robinson commanding shorter targets.

Tate's production is heavily vertical with limited after-catch ability, which may not translate to high target volume as a rookie. He also faces competition for targets, and rookie receivers often need time to ramp up volume, making his fantasy upside uncertain.

Parker Washington had elite efficiency after the Chigoziem Myers trade, ranking third in yards per route run, and plays in an offense that may rely on him more. However, his role is uncertain and he lacks a strong prospect profile, making him a risky but affordable target.

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