STATS by Will & Jim: S2E10 - Mid-Major+ Conferences Preview

>> The premium basket is under review. [MUSIC] >> Welcome back to Stats by Will and Jim, the college basketball podcast that focuses on the numbers. I am your host, Jim Root, joined as always by Will Warren and Will last week I put out a call to the people. We needed it to define the acronym that is Stats. And before we could really even come up with any, we kind of got hit with a winner right off the bat, the discord. >> Yeah, literal first submission from Jell, correct? >> G-E-L-L in the discord, yeah, hit us. >> Jell. >> Before we even put out the question, he said. >> Just call it, just kind of called G-Dog. >> G-Dog as a good nickname. >> Statistics tailored analysis talk show, and that feels really good. I did love the idea of having it be different every week. And that was like a recurring bit to come back to. But I felt like that was maybe giving myself a little too much homework. To go with the research and the stat of the day. So I'm taking the slightly lazy route and going with statistics tailored analysis talk show. That is Stats. And now I can say it in all caps and feel justified that I'm not deceiving anybody. >> I like it. That's a, I'm smack in the canvas. >> Okay. >> It's over, it's over. >> Yeah, it's right, there's dubbies in the chat for that one. There we go. >> [LAUGH] >> And we at Stats are probably a part of basket under review, which we think is the very best basketball community going. Please check out the site in the discord. Only $10 a month gets you access to all kinds of written content, including the ongoing top 50 countdown. We are into the top 10 this week. As we are recording this, it is Louisville Day Tuesday. But this will be out on Wednesday and that will be, I believe, Texas number eight. Or get into the nitty gritty after that, the top seven, top five next week. And after that, we've got conference previews. So every single day we'll have a conference people where we detailed right up on every single team. We've got line ups, rosters, stats for every team. And then just a right up of everybody. We've got Will, myself, Kai McEun from Three Men Weave. And Matthew Winnick doing almost all the conferences and then Tanner McGrath doing the American East. You've also got other great right ups on there, some profiles of players, coaches that we've got some really, really talented people doing that. Joey Dwyer, Joe Jackson have done some of that already. So make sure to check that out. And then the discord, there's all kinds of great discussion happening every day. We've got Three Men Weave channels that we're talking about the previews. There's a transfer portal discussion that's kind of a catch all. Everything's happening there, coaching, carousel, high school recruiting. Whatever it is, there's team channels too, if you just want to talk about your squad. Everything is there at your fingertips in the discord. We've also got other shows on the network, the basketball under review pod, the burp, with even Brennan and Tate Frazier. We can't under review with Matthew Winnick and Brian Ralph, scout team with Kevin Sweetie and Eric Fawcett. Support us if you can. It goes towards making these shows happen, making it viable to do so. So if you're in the discord paying the $10 a month, thank you. And if not, tell a friend. We appreciate that as well. Our topic today is previewing conferences six through 10. That is what we're calling them. And that will be the Pac-12, the A10, the Mountain West, the American, and the Missouri Valley. We're nudging up over the new look WCC. So congratulations to the Missouri Valley for being inducted into the top 10 this week. Well, that's going to lead right into our stat of the day. And I recorded a podcast with Kevin Sweetie and Evan Miyakawa yesterday. It'll be out on Evan's feed, previewing his rankings that are set to come out on Friday this week. That episode will drop the same time as this one Wednesday morning. But I've got a little sneak peek of Evan's rankings. I know they're very influential in the college basketball world. So my trivia question for you is how many teams from this group of five conferences, and we can go five, we can go conference by conference, are in Evan's top 100. So we've got our five leagues, kind of the the cusp of the top or sitting in the top 10 of conferences. We can go league by league and you can tell me how many made his top 100 will start with the Pac-12. Okay, Pac-12, I'm going to guess four. So Gonzaga, obvious, and I think that one's a debate. Okay, Gonzaga, Utah State, Colorado State, San Diego State would be the four. Those are the top four in order, but there are two are sneaking in there. Oh, okay, so boys he got in, that would have been my fifth. Boys he did get in, and who's the wrinkle? Oh, Oregon State. Oregon State, the Beavers, welcome to the top 100 in Justin Jonas first year. Excited about them, we'll talk about them a little bit probably in our preview here. But yes, shout it to the Peyton heads, the Peyton years, the boys over, they've got their own podcasts. But yes, the Beavers, I like that. I'm not sure I've heard that before, that's fantastic. Yes, six from the Pac-12. All right, next we've got the A-10 will. How many from the A-10 in the top 100? VCU, SLU, Dayton, I'm going to guess Mason got in there. Mason did not, I think they were 102nd, so just barely outside. I do have permission from Evan to give away some things here, so don't worry, I'm not like telling tales out of school. Okay, and so we'll quick note if I read his tweet correctly. So by the time this is up, his ratings should be up later that day, correct? I think I believe he told Kevin and I that his plan is to have like a little 48 hour, where the only access you get is the podcast, and he's got some cool visuals, so if you want to watch his podcast on YouTube, you can see the top 30 we give away, and we give away I think the top 30-ish players as well, we give away some of the top midmajors. So you'll see some of these teams because we discuss the top midmajors that are in the top 100. Okay, okay, cool. All right, so my other guess here would be George Washington. Yep, GW is in it 90th, so the George's are kind of like the one's towing the line inside outside of the top. Just four, just four from the 810. What is this conference deal? I know, I know. I'm sure that all this should be your time. Like 76 teams, I will give away one of the stats I was going to use, but it ended up opting out of was that it's been eight f'ing years since the 810 had three beds. Can't happen. I, hey, are you going to run it back on our bold predictions or take purge that it's a 3-bit 810? Good. Good. I don't punt. I will also note on these runs I do in the morning, I've been thinking of non-maskable take purges, so I might say the couple of those for the end of that show. Perfect. Is it soup is the perfect food? No, it's airport related. That's perfect. Well, I'll give a B side would be that every airport in America should have a McDonald's. I think that's completely reasonable. That there should not be like a quick 20 second aside. Knoxville's best restaurant on the airport is a quiz nose. It should be raised and immediately replaced with a McDonald's. I don't care if it's a four item menu every single airport should have one. Yeah, the cut down menu. I don't want a good meal at an airport. I want like cheap quick slop. Yep, slop is exactly what you want at an airport. Yep. Yes. Okay, so we've got the six from the pack 12, the four from the 810, and now we go to the mountain west. Well, how many from the mountain west on the top of it? New Mexico, Grand Canyon. Does anyone feel like really comfortable about? But I'm going to guess the way you're looking. I mean, there's a third at least. I would confirm that. It is the Nevada rivals. Both stuck in the top 100. Nevada and UNLV sneaking in there so far. Is that a rivalry? It is. They don't like each other. UNLV constantly calls them like UNR as like a dig. Oh, that's awesome. Yep. All in. Yep. Any little like underhanded jabs, we respect that kind of rivalry. All right, so the same amount from mountain west is the 810, which did surprise me as well. Then how about the. How about the U.T. Nashville? Yes, I like that. How many from the Americans? This one is really tricky because I genuinely could see as many as six or as few as like two. It's in between those. I will tell you that. Tulsa. Tulsa is not. What? Yeah, we're going to talk to him. Wow. There we go. No conkel respect. Wichita. Wichita is the top ranked one. Yep. Memphis. Number two. There you go. South Florida. One, two, three. And that's it. I'm going to cut you. Okay. And there's not a fourth. There's not a fourth in the top one. Okay, so my fourth would have been Charlotte if I had to guess. Okay, well, depends on what you. I don't even know if Evan has. I think he's got Jussel James removed from his projection. Which is a problem. I think he's off the roster and his dad tweeted that he's having some off the court issues. But yeah, that does detract a little bit from the overall talent level since Nadiens. You know, whatever you think of James, since Nadi got better when he was on the court last year. So him leaving Charlotte would definitely cut them down a little bit. All right, then we'll close it out with the Missouri Valley. How many got into the top 100? I'm going to go with two. I think Murray's state. I tried to go poker face there when you guessed. I feel like I've been giving it away with my expressions. Yeah, Murray State. Illinois State? Not Illinois. Illinois state. Okay. See, Torvik wants me to believe it's UIC, but is that it's not UIC? Is it? Is UIC? Yes. That feels like a little inflation based on returning minutes. Yeah, I think I believe we discussed this on the pod with Evan there, like back-to-back in rankings, Murray State and UIC, which is kind of a fun little conundrum and Kevin joked about the disparity and spend there. Can we spoil an MVC thing really quick? Our partnership with Belmont got an out today. That's right. That's right. Which I actually had some positive things to say about Belmont already, and I promise you, it is not influenced by that. What's the meme of North Korean state television? Belmont is going to finish 42nd this year. Yes, it's like, wait a second. They have this partnership, and now they're pushing Belmont as an at-large team in the preseason. What's going on? How is this happening? But yes, best interview in Belmont. Have a little bit of partnership going forward. We'll have the details on that as the week unfolds. But to wrap up the stat of the day, that is 19 teams from our five conferences here that make up the top 100. And as mentioned, that is going to be on Evan's website, I believe on Friday. If you're not a paying member, feel free to check that out. Sign up. It's a great site. A lot of coaches use it. A lot of administrators, GMs use it. So it is a really, really good resource for college basketball fans and media and teams alike. So if you don't, check it out. And we'll keep moving here. Before we get into the preview, as always, we got a shout out Homefield apparel. We are always sponsored by Homefield apparel. It's your industry leader in game day gear for true fans. Our friends at Homefield design and research everything from the fit and fabrics to the vintage logos to make stand out gear that defines your game day. So shout the best of Homefield, like the t-shirts, hoodies, and crewnecks featuring unique designs from your school. They've got over 180 partners, which means there's always something for you and they're continually adding schools. They have premium hats with retro designs and a fit for everyone, retro jackets, especially with fall weather coming around. You might want to grab one of those. And just announced the Homefield Stadium Polo, inspired by the bold, vibrant game day polos of the '90s. You can shop the very best in game day apparel for your team now. With Homefield, take 20% off your first purchase with Burr20 as your code BUR20. As 20% off your first purchase with BUR20, at checkout, that's Homefield apparel, the official op-fitter of basketball review and of your game day. Okay, well, we are going. We decided in a top-down order. So our guests for the strength order of these conferences, that means we're going to go Pac-12, A10, Mountain West, American, and Missouri Valley. We're going to do one number each back and forth. But then we're also going to give our take on the projected order. I don't know if you did tiers. I did a little bit of tiering because I like to do that. It's how I argue with people like, you're too low on my team. I'm like, well, you're in the same tiers as T-Mex. Yeah, I've had a lot of tiers this past week. Yeah, I know, that's an off-topping discussion, an off-pot discussion. But yes, that's kind of how we'll hit each conference. We'll give the main number that we're excited about or we think is most intriguing. And then we'll discuss standing order really quick. So I will let you lead it off with the Pac-12. So my number here is one. Number of teams in this league that returns three or more starters. It's Colorado State. Oh, okay. I'm very intrigued by the Rams. It kind of went under the radar. They had that super hot start last year. It was something like 48 or 49% from three in the first month of the year. Yep. And they were getting a lot of fun and coverage was like, oh, there's no drop off with frockman. I should have had coach. And then, you know, regression hit and I was like, well, here's reality. But they settled on a new couple of lineups down the stretch. So from February 1st onward, 9 and 3, 8 and 1 in Mountain West play, borderline top 80 team, won a lot of good games against good teams. I'm really interested in these guys this year because not only did they return Josh Pascarelli, Jason Butler, Kyle Jorgensen, Carrie Booth, I like Justin Menard coming in from Marist, fun little perimeter guard who can shoot it. And then they've got a really intriguing grad transfer from D2, Amando Miller from Lubbock Christian Average 21 and 8. Lubbock Christian, a typically very good D2 program. So they've got a really strong top 7 with a good amount of returning talent. I mean, is it about really a loss for an erect signer? Like sure, but other than that, I mean, they returned a lot of the production that made them kind of, you know, had a second win last year, you know, late in the season. So I'm very interested in this team. It not out of, you know, not impossible at all to me that they're able to finish second. We'll go in spoil. I have Kentucky number one by a mile in Miss League, but with the uncertainty of like seeing you go States roster and the Utah State coaching change and kind of wondering if Boise's like miss their moment a little bit, Colorado State could definitely finish second in Miss League. Yep, absolutely. This team was was like you said, really fun to watch. There's almost a tale of three seasons. They had like the incredible start and then hit some real road bumps. They had some injuries, Kyle Jorgensen missed a bunch of time and he was really, really important for them. And thenba, the other kind of like wide body, 250 pound, six seven post player, missed the start of the year and then they had to get him incorporated into the lineup. And then down the stretch. Yeah, they were awesome. The San Diego State, New Mexico Boise, down the stretch, like kind of proving the upside of what they have. Those teams are all like top 60 teams. And Kyle, our state took all of them down. So I believe in the upside here, you get the second leg with for a second year with Froke Mesh getting his legs under him on the sideline in the big chair. I think there's real upside to finish second as well. There's really good programs and really good coaches in contention for that spot, but Kyle out of state could definitely get there. I mean, you look at the shooting percentages from deep bonds team. Just of the guys who've taken real shots, whether at CSU or at their previous school, Minara at 36% on five attempts of game Pascarelli 42 on five attempts for game Butler 41, Jorgensen 40, Booth 41, Miller 36% at D2 while essentially playing as a stretch for like this team should be able to shoot it really well again. So I look, they're going to rank pretty highly on our mid major league pass list. Yes, a lot of five out options here. It's going to be a fun season for them. They just got to figure out the defensive end. That's what kind of took them down last year. They were outside the top 170 nationally. Ninth in the Mountain West in per possession, efficiency in league play. So if they can figure it out there with the high, high scoring potential they have, yes, I think second could be in the cards. My number for this league will is 14. That is the number of years in a row that Gonzaga has ranked top 20 in 2.0 percentage nationally. Like it doesn't matter who's on the team. Mark few figures it out. They've got the system where they get a lot of easy buckets early in transition. They've got a really skilled front court every single season. And I am very willing to make the bet that is going to be 15 in a row. Despite the change in conference, despite the change in league and step up in competition and some turnover on the roster. But when the front court is Bradenhoff, Davis Vogel and Massamba job, I think we're going to see another year of hyper efficient finishing in the paint. And that just kind of sets the floor for this program. They've been top 20 in Kenpon for so many years in a row, almost two straight decades. And as you mentioned, you have them number one. I also have them number one. There's a ton of uncertainty with the roster. They are playing the five for five and international game, maybe more than almost anyone besides LSU. But I firmly believe this is the best team in the conference. And we'll talk about order in a second. But really the question is Gonzaga true national title contender, or are they just, you know, like a four seed that's going to be really good all year. So let's say that they're the former or a little more of the former like top two seed. Can I interest you in a flyer on Bradenhoff national player at the year? I've already got one. So yes, you can actually interest me. Easy enough. Yeah, I mean, not to get into just pure counting stats, but 18 and six and 25 minutes of game is insane. That's, you got to be really damn efficient to pull that off. I think I can shoot a little bit. I mean, he's a great, you know, score down low. I don't necessarily know that like on average competition is going to be that much better than it would have been in the WCC. So you'll probably get those same complaints. But Gonzaga plays such a bonkers non-conference late every year that it kind of doesn't matter. So he's going to get more than his share of chances to show off against really good teams. I do like if everybody is eligible, which it kind of seems like they will be, right? I figured out. Well, I think we just had our first guys that got stayed in one state. Signed up to a new lawsuit in a different state to have a second shot at getting eligible. I bet we see a lot more of that. Okay. Well, you know what? I wish these guys the best of luck. the ones I like can play and the ones I don't can sign up for link. 10.com. So the uh, but if everybody does end up eligible, we'll assume the same for the internationals too. I actually think you could argue this as like a top eight-ish team. Yep. If they're all in, I might have them top five. I just think Huff is going to be that level of a score. Like I think he could have upside like a Drew Timmy type season, like maybe not quite to that degree, but he is so efficient from everywhere on the court. His shot chart is like a thing of beauty, just looking at it on cvvanalytics.com. It's gorgeous. You've made the point about Gonzaga's not a conference schedule. I'm going to read it to you. Opening night, Purdue, in Las Vegas. Then they've got two bygones, New Mexico state and Carnot word. Then they play LSU in Spokane. So the what is our roster going to be bowl at this point? Montana state. And then they've got the players there, Kansas state, Alabama or Baylor. And then potentially I think two more games. I think they're in the players 16. So they can end up playing four. Then Port Eastern Oregon has to come to Spokane and get pounded. But they've also got UCLA at Craton and Michigan state before New Years. And then during league play, they play Oregon at the end of January in Seattle. And then they play Duke in Detroit on February 20th. I forgot about that. Yeah. So there. Why? Is that like a replacement for Michigan or something? I can't remember why they did that one. Honestly. They play. Well, we had this discussion. I was like, well, it'd be great if they're playing it at Ford field to like prep for the sightlines or it'd be kind of bold if you're like, we're doing this to prep for the sightlines when we make the final four. Oh, yeah. That's like the only that's the only reason I would do it. I'm assuming it's at the pistons right now. Sort of halfway in between them. I don't know. You could do the Pentagon. That's sort of halfway in between them as well. But yeah, I think it's notable. That's halfway in between. Notable that yeah, they're despite the change to the the pack 12 Gonzaga still really challenging themselves and not just in noncon like in the first two months. They are keeping that up into league play with two P five teams in January and February respectively. I mean, I love it. They really do help the schedule every year. Yeah. Yeah. All right. I know it's a very interesting thing with tough really quickly. So top three cops at Toravik other than himself, of course. Junior cockbrenner. COVID year drew Timmy. So I think the year before he was national player of the year. And junior Adam a Sanago. So pretty good. Yeah. All those guys had very good seasons and careers. All of those guys. I think we're first team all Americans that season. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I guess Sanago's most outstanding player. The final four. So yes, that's pretty good company to be in. All right. Well, let's do our order in standings. I'll you go first. Feel free to do tears if you'd like or or just go one through nine. Yeah. I got tears prepped. Gonzaga tier one by a mile. No. I I even struggle to have a tier two because I think they're that far ahead of everybody else. But let's just for the sake of argument here, tier two. The Indiego State Colorado State Utah State Boise, Oregon State. It could finish in any order. And then tier three. Wazoo Fresno State, Texas State. Okay. All right. I've got a tier one Gonzaga as well. I hadn't shoulders above the rest. My tier two is the same teams. But in order, I went Utah State Colorado State San Diego State Oregon State and Boise State then into tier three Washington State and Texas State. And I have poor Fresno down alone in tier four. I am I'm taking a little skeptical view of them. Perhaps the international players are better than I'm giving them credit for and they overachieved the way that they did last year. Walberg did a nice job with with Fresno last year. But I've got them down at ninth. I agree with you that two through six could finish in pretty much any order. And it would not surprise me whatsoever. Yeah. And with Fresno, like I kind of do I feel like they've got more talent on a pure talent basis than like a Wazoo. But maybe I'm just done. But I am going down with a ship on David Riley. I'm still a believer. I'm with you. I'm with you. I think he's a really good coach. And some of their talent projection is is hard to like there may be their best players in division two transfer who is incredible as a freshman at Central Missouri. And that translation is tough. So we'll see if it works out. Texas State, I think we're just waiting for the next coach I guess. Yeah. I'm surprised they didn't make a move with the move to a new conference. But my guess is they're like we're just going to take all the money we we're getting and dump it into football and see if we can make a move there to start to start the which they're pretty good at it. So yeah. And there's no Gonzaga in the in the pack 12 and football. Yes. There's no Gonzaga in football. So you've got a chance to yeah go get all the way to the top. Okay. Let's move to the 810 14 team league. A lot of different directions you can go in here for a number will what what did you decide to do for your 810 number? 10 and 4 10 is the number of two or higher offensive box plus minus transfer is the entire 810 got four is the number of those going to one George Mason which fascinates me. So GMU I think we know and love them as a defense first program under Tony skin. They took a like a minor step back last year not like a huge one. I wouldn't say they were horrible defensively or anything but it wasn't really the Mason I was used to from year before. And I think skin would agree like he'd like to see the defense better but it's fascinating to me you know Mason's last top 100 offense was in 2011 the final gym layer nega year or you know and skin like his 107th place finished last year is actually the highest sits which is kind of nuts. So I am a little confused that they're going so offense first and I think they should have a top 100 offense finally for the first time in what will be 16 years but it's going to go into the same kind of it it is a little bit of a Tennessee-ish experiment at GMU of if you just give a defense first coach a lot of really good offensive pieces can you teach them to play defense because none of these guys are terribly good on the defensive end. So I'm interested to see what GMU does. I'm really intrigued by this year's roster overall like they they weren't really big on that front like it's not going to be very big in the front court. They got James Najee which is really funny I don't really know what that's all about. Yeah when he landed there it was it was kind of the Nick Young Giff where it's like just the question marks appearing all around his face the meme like that's how I felt. And Baraka Ocogee is a Marfo correct. He is. His freshman year was under skin at George Mason. So I think like it's a it's a lot of talent like they have a I think it's yeah 10 players who played 16 or more minutes a game at a school of their choice last year. So I am curious to see how they shake it all out because there's a lot of good lineups like I don't think the best defensive lineup has the same as the best offensive one by any means but there's some of these offensive lineups that could be really bad defensively particularly down low. So how skin chooses to attack that and shift his work around I'm really excited and interested to see because I do think very highly of him as a head coach. Yep I would agree I the down the stretch slide last year I think there's a little bit of injuries as part of it but yeah just they didn't have the same juice down the stretch defensively I like the the one in five bookends of the lineup like Ocogee is a monster on the ball he was really good defensively at George Mason his freshman year then it was a bigger offensive burden last year at Mercer so he wasn't quite the same but then Emanuel Kanga the freshman was rebounding freak incredible athlete in the paint I think he's going to be a really good anchor for them defensively it's just to your point how do you fill in the right spots around those guys is it some of the shooting of Valentine and Marvill or is it the like RNG athleticism I'm calling him EOE if you know so Oyogu Elabor that's what I'm going with they're like pre-seasonal conference guy last year was Braden O'Connor and then he missed the season so they've they've got some questions to answer with the lineups but it's one of those where okay we just got too many options and we just got to find the best combination I'm high on George Mason as well I think I would have them as a top 100 team as we mentioned they weren't in Evans just barely outside of it but I think they're in contention for the third best team in the league and could get up there and the key point with Ocogee because I'm looking through the rest of the rosters I'm not immediately thinking of a better point guard in the league yeah let's see I guess Trey Greene or Trey Greene but it's like both he you know he wasn't a pure point guard you know that it's a lot of the playmaking came from the center position for them last year yeah but yeah all right my number for the A10 actually I have a quick question do you have the who do you have all the listed 10 transfers that have that box my box plus minus let me pull it up real quick so you can for a second cool I can do that. I will give my number, well, well, well, does that. My number is three. And that is the number of teams in the league who have over 50% of their minutes returning from last year. And those three teams are VCU, slew, and Fordham. Fordham with a ton back glass from last year. The first two are pretty obvious at large candidates, a ton of talent in depth at slew in VCU, and pretty much everybody's going to have them as the top two teams based on both coaching and roster. But there's a chance Fordham has its best ever Ken Palm season in Magpaio's second year. Quick trivia question for you will. They're best ever finish was in 2006. They finished 127th at Ken Palm. So they've never even cracked the top 120. Can you name their coach from that? Derek Whitney Merg. Wow. Okay. You were ready. You're you're ready to pull that. There's a, I used to when I was like 10 or 11, get that. Do you remember Lindy's magazines? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Okay. So Lindy's, you know, back when people read, they would make these like 300 and however many, it was like 340 back in the day. They'd have a preview for every single team. And I devoured it. I loved it. And the Fordham one, it stood out to me because it was like, oh my God, this team went one in 26. This guy's first year. And it's like Derek Whitenberg. And then it just like never forgotten that guy's name. Yeah. Derek Whitenberg famously the heaver of the air ball that Lorenzo Charles dunked in the Jimmy Velvano Miracle National Title win. So it's fun to bring his name back up there. But yeah, Fordham is like huge in the paint. They could be really, really good defensively. And they already wore last season. It's only Mike Magpaio's second year. It's not like I don't think he's working with much of a budget, but has built a pretty competitive roster there and makes them very intriguing. So we both decided on defense heavy teams in the A10 that were particularly intrigued by. I'm excited you did Fordham because I wrote their preview for the A10 yesterday. So it's all fresh in the mind. Pretty much a maybe outside of like one guy, a completely intact returning front court, which is pretty cool. So that's a total rarity in this, but it's going to be fun because they have to mesh it with a completely rebuilt back court. So what they choose to do, they'll be really interesting. Oh, here's the list of 10 before I forget. Nick Janowski, Davidson, Nile Ralph Bayer, buyer to VCU. Oh, the big shooter. Not big, but yeah, okay. Ok, G Cam Burton, SFA to LaSalle, Andrea Vukovic from Oklahoma State to GW, Landon Joseph, Marshall Dayton, McCuy Valentine, Niu to GMU Elijah Jones, you tapped to GMU, Emmett Adair, Loyola, Maryland to GMU, and then Amir Lindsay, Albany and Fordham. Would you like to guess how many of those that are positive defensive box plus minus? I will guess two. Correct. Vukovic and Joseph. So none of the George Mason guys were very good on defensive. I would have guessed Okogi, but man, I guess not. Minus 1.3. So, but I mean, there is a lot of variance there, and it's not like Mercer was a good defense anyway. I'm sure like his Memphis numbers were a good bit better. Yeah, don't look at his offense as numbers from Memphis. I remember them being, I think he shot like 20% from the field. It was, it was ugly. He kind of overstepped his, his level for a bit, but then found it at the mid major level. Okay, let's talk standing in order here. Well, I'll let you do your tears first, and we can touch on any other teams that we want to hit in this, in this conference. Okay, I, so let's call this 1A and 1B, because I don't feel like there's like a giants. I don't know if there would be a huge Ken Pong got, but I'd be surprised if anyone other than St. Louis 1, VCU 2 won the league. But Dayton 3 is the one that I think could pull it off. They've gotten more than enough talent. I don't know, and I, again, just wrote it, so I remember this, Anthony Grant, I think it's a minimum of 30 or 40 games, is one of like four coaches in America to have a winning record as they straight up Vegas underdog. Wow. Post-COVID. Just don't look at the record as a favorite, because it's like the fourth worst. Yeah. So, um, a real penny hard away moment there. True tier 2. Mason, George Washington, Richmond, Davidson, Fordham, St. Joe's. Wow. Okay. Very deep tier 2. I like that. Yeah. I, I just don't love or hate any of those teams. Tier 3, Bonnie's loyal, now loyal to Chicago, Bonnie's tier 4, La Sal, Rhode Island, Ducane. Okay. I like this a lot, because it's different than both myself, and then I just did the echo chamber with the three man weave guys, and we had, well, it's St. Bonaventure last, and I will spoil that they are definitely not last, and Evan Miyakawa's rankings. So, perhaps we overthought that, underthought that. I don't know. They've got the Division 2 coach, couple transfers from Division 2. So, respect to the Bonnie's. I like that. I'll do mine real quick, and then we can discuss any like major discrepancies though. Tier 1, VCU, and SLU, I think those are the two best teams. I would say, would you put them both north of 50% to being at large? Yes, in this area. Yeah, I think I would too. Tier 2, Dayton, George Mason, George Washington, the date when I think it's just a little bit of grant skepticism, and the fan base is so moved on already, that maybe it doesn't go quite as smoothly as they hope. I want to hit you with the date and stat really quick. One of, let's say, four true mid majors to finish inside the Kenpom top 75, six times in the last eight years. The other's being St. Mary, San Diego State, VCU. So, I mean, like, in some way, obviously, I get the fan frustration because they're not, I mean, there was a four seats, and what have been a one seat during COVID, but I just, I don't know. The guy's not actively terrible. I think he's just frustrating. Yeah, and they've got a lot of resources into it, but man, their roster is loaded this year with like proven production and guys that have really big upsides, so I have no qualms with bumping them up even higher. I feel like Dayton's always the wins some tough games in the non-conference, so that beating them in league play as you're like needle moving quad one or quad two win, but unfortunately, they don't end up getting enough to sneak in themselves. All right. So those three teams are my tier two, and then tier three, Davidson, Fordham, Richmond, Loyola, St. Joe's, Duquesne, and Rhode Island. And then, down into your three, LaSalle, and St. Bondaventure, or tier four, excuse me, that would be tier four. And perhaps I'm being a little too rude to the bonnies. I'm kind of open to being proven wrong by McDonald, and I guess, Wojge can come after me if I'm too low on them. But yeah, that group, Davidson, down to like St. Joe's, Duquesne, etc. Like, that's another one could finish in any order. It's kind of the meat of the conference, the way tier two was for Pac-12. And I think I wouldn't be shocked no matter how it goes. What do you think of George Washington? So with watch GW really intriguing build, I think a lot of these P5 guys are actually good players, like getting Terence Arsono to GW two years ago, we would have been astonished by like we would have been, yeah, we don't understand how this happened. So to get him basically at a discount because he flopped a little bit at NC State is a great W getting here and going back as a great win. You just need like a couple other guys to pop like we I've mentioned, I like Vukovic, I think that's a really good ad. Amari witherspoon, I'm curious. Is that a good ad or a bad ad? I'm not really certain. Like it's just it's hard, it's hard to tell. Honestly, like Dylan James, I think I have some good upside. This is a team where like if like talent wise, third in the conference, fourth in the conference. Yep. It's just a good ad to make the most effort, which we both like the guy. And I think last year they simply had some really bad luck in close games that held them back. So I'm pro on the on the long run, but they've got to stop losing stupid games every single year. There's like a it's actually a little darkness. There's a couple of games here, just like how did you lose to this opponent? Yep, got to clean that up. I mean, that's, you know, they were in the top 100 camp on last year, but under 500 in the A 10 and that that can't happen for the. Yeah, you just gotta be smarter. Yeah. I'm going on record as liking the bodies, maybe not to be like great. But the Damon transfers, I am a fan of the the one named Benjamin Bill in particular, which is a both hilarious name and just like very fun to say Benjamin Bill. Yeah, sounds like an outlaw from the 1800s, but wild Benny Bill, wild Benny Bill 17, eight and two blocks in 26 minutes, regardless of the level you're playing at is really impressive. He continuously popped in like every single D two, you know, like Torvik carving or, you know, stat look, like anything I could look at when I was looking for guys who translate really well to the next level, he looked that good in them last season. And I was like, why is this guy coming back to D two? So I guess he really lights. like the the other Mike Mac, it's amazing that we have like Mike Macs everywhere, Mike McDonald, Mike McDaniel, Mike McDonald College. So it's a it's a really good era for these guys, but yes, huge podcasts for McDonald's as well pleading that all airports should have McDonald's in itself. Yes, Mike, Mike, oh my god, interviewing Mike McDonald had a McDonald's pretty good, great, great week for Chicago area McDonald's for that that Ohio State fan that has to spend like 30 hours or whatever at one because they lost that's right. Yes, trust me, trust as problem McDonald. Yeah, pretty good. And I think he raised money for charity. So, you know, good thing for them. Yeah, but I I don't know man, I do like just like I think in general when these two guys come up and they're able to bring three year more starters over as McDonald did and Taj Aduk, which is not a food, but rather like a a jukego guy who's really good at Indian Hills last year. I could see them being like a frustrating team to play against and they play a very fun style like Damon plays very fast offensively. So not like I you in the level, but you know, they want to get out in transition. They want to play in the fast break first and foremost like it's going to be a very different looking bodies team. I'm excited. But actually play more than five and a half guys in the rotation for the first time in a while. That's exciting. Yes. Okay, let's let's keep moving here. We'll go to our third conference, which is the Mountain West, one very near and dear to Will's heart. I know what is your number to to first start analyzing the Mountain West to and at a sorry five, but two teams, but five, the number of 10 or more points per game scores that both Wyoming and San Jose State have rusted this year. I a different way of attacking the the offseason certainly from these two. And I will say Grand Canyon qualifies of all of their guys get eligible, which we'll see. But the the Wyoming and San Jose State game Wyoming has gone on record. I think in local interviews or national ones, I'm not really sure which as stating like their way of operating in the transfer portal era is to like skit essentially money ball like try and find guys who have put that put up good stats at like colleges. They know they can get from like last year's was Damarian Dennis was their big get Leland lead Leland Walker was also a big one. They're really happy to get. And so I think this year's is probably like Ken and Jefferson from North Alabama and then Mike Mora from D2 Cal State Monterey Bay very fun college name. But then getting those two back getting those two and then Kaden Bennett and this year Meyer back. It's a really fun build for Sundance wicks. They're going to try and money ball their way to I mean like I think a top two finishes going to be really hard to pull off like third not out of line. I don't think that's impossible. San Jose State I am a big time believer in Tim Miles. I think he's just a very good basketball coach in general. But they they did a really good job of just getting guys like pure number of guys out of the portal this year like Joy Chama. Xenu can we just go ZEB? That works. That's fair. Yeah ZEB. And then the big one the big interesting piece for me here Luke Howard from Canadian Simon Fraser. I'd love to ask Matt Winnick if that's a good school in Canada. But 17 points per game 42% shooting from three. Hard to say no to that you know that's a pretty good ad. Yeah Tim Miles has had some pretty bad luck with injuries in the past and he's running that risk again here with Viola and ZEB in the front court. Both guys got hurt early last season. Viola's got like multiple years of injury history but there is talent here and he went a little bit into the international world to try to find some contributors. And he's got a five for five guy McCuy Mason from Wake Forest hoping to join the fold. So I would love to see it happen for Mr. Miles. I think he's a great coach great dude. And yeah the mix I think my guesses will agree on the pretty clear top two in the mountain west the same way we did on the A10. But it's pretty open after that with the exodus of some of the you know top end school San Diego State Boise State Colorado State that were consistently in the NCAA tournament picture. Now there's a little bit of power vacuum after that and I think both Wyoming and San Jose State could try to assert themselves in this era. All right my number for the mountain west is plus 14.3 and that is New Mexico's net rating when Jay call and Uriah to net are on the floor together they're they're rising sophomore back court. I think they got sky high upside and that was just in league play last year but anytime either one of them left the court they're a little bit worse and when they're both off the Mexico was not good last year but they complement each other very well. You got an elite elite shooter in Jay call. I mean he is up there among like the 10 best shooters in the entire country. He went into the portal. It seemed like he was gone like gone gone. How do they keep him with P5s willing to pay through the through the roof for shooting. Maybe it turned out that the big man market overtook shooting this year in the transfer portal pay pay rate but they get him back and then to net who is a committed to Eric Olin at UC San Diego and what a steal that would have been in the big west but he comes in as an immediate impact player in the mountain west as a downhill driver lives in the lane. Neither of them ever turns it over. They both take great care of the ball for freshmen so well admittedly I think Grand Canyon is going to be the story of the league talent wise I mean they're it's just ridiculous the amount of high level contributors that they have especially a five or five goes through they have dominated that market. I still think New Mexico is going to have something to say about winning the league and the home court advantage they have in Albuquerque is going to make it tough so I'm excited about New Mexico and GCU atop this league. Same here. I really like that they got right as Petritis which I this is just like a good get for them that's a I mean he was really good at Cal I thought in his limited minutes that he could play so I I'm really excited about that getting Hudson maize out of the UCSD system after a really good freshman year there and this Finn last ring guy I'm really interested in what he might be so I just ran the numbers really quickly last year in Germany an international play 43% from three on over a hundred attempts as a six foot ten stretch big if that translates that is a hell of a piece to have as your five. It sounds like an Eric Olen type five we can go five out and you have no chance of guarding us that's that's going to be really really a big challenge and I think I think we've talked about him on multiple episodes how highly we think of him as a coach you I don't know like how this team's going to be a room protection rebounding I think there's probably question marks there but the offense could be positively lethal especially if last ring is as good as some of those stat translations would suggest so official number is 57 for 136 so 42% so I was a hair off but it's really good for a six ten guy for six ten big that's really damn good and so that's across the German what is it second and third divisions and also some U 18 feet of play as well so a variety of competition levels there but I just I mean like if the shooting translates at all man and given that he's 2007 board I think he comes in as a true freshman yeah I think so too if that hits yeah start budgeting start budgeting immediately yeah different player than tome bouillon last year who was like double double machine lived in the paint but would be another really big win for Olen in the international market of big men yeah other little number I thought was fun was the most continuity in in any team in this conference is Air Force of course with 99% of their minutes of returning per part I don't know how much they can actually improve they had a stretch and conference play where they went one in 13 against the spread and lost 10 games by 24 points or more so it was really really dark days here but Joe Scott's gone and perhaps Joe christmas can fix that so all right well let's do your mountain west here's okay mountain west here is number one I mean like again these would be more or less a tie but one new mexico to grand canyon either order you have the men is fine I wouldn't take issue with it tier two Nevada so is it I've had this correct in many times is it Nevada or Nevada I I'm pretty sure Nevada but I think there's like almost two schools of thought on that so it's like caramel caramel yeah you're probably gonna anger somebody no matter which way you pronounce it well I Nevada is more fun to say so I'm going Nevada uh UNOV Wyoming Hawaii would be my three through six tier two and then tier three yeah fine I'll do three team tier three you see day this you tap sanos a state again any order think sanos a state is the best coach of those probably the least amount of true talent uh tier four air four Yeah, okay. I'm similar. Similar. I've got maybe a one more tear break in there that separates it, but New Mexico Grand Canyon 2-1 agreed I close to saying they're Maybe not quite at the level of ECU St. Louis where I'd say over 50% to make the tournament. I think maybe they're both slightly under unless Grand Canyon gets all three of their five for five guys, which it would be ridiculous They got Henley skillings and Trey Holliman that roster would be too deep at every position. Maybe even three deep But that's my top two tier two UNLV and Nevada and then tier three Wyoming Hawaii San Jose State UC Davis So kind of kind of in sync in the order with Will I've got tier four UTEP and even more tier five air force like you could even call it tier six And I wouldn't be just just skip tier five and call it tier six I wouldn't be totally opposed to it just unfortunately hard to get a ton of talent there going to be reliant on crispin But we talked about a lot of the intriguing teams here UTEP Hawaii UC Davis are the new additions to backfill the ones that left for the pack 12 Hawaii, I think we agree. It's the most intriguing of that group So is the UTEP deal just like they don't have funding Anymore to like make good teams because like we both I feel like I liked Joe Golding a lot Yeah, I agree. I he had kind of a unique style. I thought it would work and Just hasn't had he hasn't been able to figure out offense quite honestly He knows how to coach defense those teams play physically But if you're looking for you know one of the coaches to or a team that's going to have a 57 to 53 rock light fairly consistently UTEP is we've got to be one of your first calls unfortunately Like so I mean they haven't finished in the top 100s. It's 2015. They haven't finished top 50 since 2010 But they haven't made the tournament since then not to just like read off a list of their sins or whatever but It's a some of this is like I don't think they've hired great coaches like Rodney Terry's Rodney Terry Tim Floyd I think was you know Tim Floyd It when you're I mean your most successful coach is the last really 30 years or Tony Barbie and Billy Gillespie That's a it's a tough list of hires going there But I you'd extends to football like they haven't been good at football in a while I'm not immediately aware that they're very good at many other sports And like I don't know if it's an nostalgia thing But when I was growing up like UTEP was generally pretty good like at football at men's basketball Like across the board. They seem to be fairly decent at most sports And it's not a thing of fan sport like at my understanding is UTEP actually has pretty stout fan support across the board Like yeah people they're really care about it. So it's like the main show in town Pretty big city. I don't really get why it is the way it is Yeah, I don't understand either. I don't know if it's it's like they need a Fresh start fresh face, but I've goldings an awesome dude and one big at Abelian Christian in the same state He's been a Texas guy for most of his career. I I figured it would work, but it just hasn't really gotten out of neutral there. Yeah All right, next we've got the American Where as I mentioned, I think three teams in Evans top 100 and one that we were both surprised missed was Tulsa I think I think maybe they'll get a little more love when we do our tears But I'll let you go with whatever number you have for the American. I have 99th percentile and for offensive minded head coach Paul Mills this is the percentile his defense ranked in a Average matchup distance last year As in they were that tight to their opponent. So 90 they were 59% of the time seven feet or closer on average during half court Possession to their opponents, which is Not always a sign of elite defense like it was for Michigan, but it wouldn't be for like Knessias They were also pretty good at guarding closely and did not matter So I think like it can be a little bit of foals gold, but it does show me like they have Paul Mills particularly has really changed how he coaches defense like they extend way out beyond the perimeter now They're super aggressive and I think it really helped last year in sort of defining a late stage turnaround for which taught and Actually, you know if you exclude the covid season the best year they've had since Greg Marshall was the coach 73rd definitely the best defense they've had since Greg Marshall was the coach. So top 50 defensively 33rd and two point percentage allowed really good at defensive free bounding at protecting in the paint at eliminating three point attempts I always like to see when a team is top 40 in both three point three point attempt rate allowed and a cisterate allowed Which means that they're super aggressive forcing a lot of one-on-one possessions kind of the Hawaii style of defense fighting over screens Like they don't help all that much. Yeah. I I'm really excited to see this For as bad as it started and as bad as the first two years where Paul Mills has technically improved all three seasons at Wichita Year over here at Kenpom and by wins and losses Last year, you know, this best year yet. I think you know, really Roverly reliant on offensive rebounds. I'd say offensively, but I I continue to I guess like this team more than the average I think getting Jordan for Zon right from UTC is a really great ad in the back court I loved him at D2 and I thought he translated quite well last year at UTC Jahari long from George Mason also really good gets but you know getting back Mike Gray Wilberg as your center A lot of interesting and fun pieces and hey available Canyon Giles is back Which is super fun. I mean that guy was as high-volving as you get from three he would launch every single night and play a ton of minutes and It was a good strategy because he was fantastic offensively and they've got more weaponry on that end I thought that that defensive build was so smart like the adjustments they made like you said playing tighter to opponents When you've got Wilberg seven foot two. Maybe not like a true shot blocker But you're just daring people. All right, you want to drive past us and go finish over him that size or you have to pull up and shoot in the mid-range That's that's our real challenge When Berg was on the court in conference play last year. They were plus 18 Compared to when he sat like the net differential like they were 12 points better on offense six points better on defense He was a major major impact piece now that's sort of an indictment on the Backup big-man situation But I you know they've made an effort at least to address that Bringing in Malonga from the mexico state. I don't I don't know if that's actually going to work But I also like when they go a little smaller you could play Dylan Baddie and TJ Williams together because both are such good rebounders That sacrificing little height doesn't suddenly make you you know exposed on the glass So between the pieces that they added in the back court that you mentioned Maybe a healthy season for Jared Valencia who at one point was like a NBA draft Twitter darling because he blocked shots and made threes at nonmouth and They hasn't really done much of either one since leaving but he has that kind of upside And I'm just impressed with this roster. I'm impressed with Mills ability to adapt and there's a time and even in my mind Or I was like well, he can't win without Max Aesmas and he kind of had a little bit of an Aesmas light with With Giles last year, but he might get him back So I think they're the favorite in the conference and have earned that right with or without Giles I think they might even step up Slight tier above everybody else if they get Giles, but that could be a stretch. Yeah All right, my number for the American is one and before five for five there's a chance this changes That is the number of all conference returners from the 15 player pool Uh, I bet there's no way you can name who it is will You're probably right. I'm scanning your ongoing roster sheet really quickly Okay, I'll give you a second. It does not will Burke use the six man to the year in the conference, but He is not the lone returning all conference player. I am guessing it is Canaan Carlisle It is not Canaan Carlisle. I think he missed some games because of injury which probably hurt him Uh, but it was Jishon Stevenson from north Texas and there's like a chance that north Texas isn't even a top half team And they're the only team returning an all conference player It is a tricky conference to be in There's a lot of poaching from the p5 and you've got to find the right guys to to bring up from the mid-major level Even just looking at Overall continuity. There's only two teams in the conference that have over 40% of their minutes back That's which a ton in north Texas Nine of the programs return less than 22% of their minutes like basically one starter. That's all they get back So it is a total refresh. It's tough to stay Consistent year over year in this league. You've got to re rebuild every year This is not the ivy. This is not the patriot. It's not even like a good p5 where you've got enough money to pay all your good players every single year It's a tricky conference and I think that makes it a little bit tougher to forecast, but it also makes it You can do what Tulsa did go from really bad to top of the league and that that should give a lot of the fan bases optimism heading into the year Yeah, I think this is going to be a moderately wide open league. I think there's like a clearer upper tier That we'll get into but like if north Texas wants to contend they certainly can I would - I will admit, I'm still struggling to be sold on the Daniel Robinson higher a little bit. Not that I think he's a bad coach, but it is what when I did the research last year, I think it's the first time in two decades they've hired a non-Texas or Oklahoma-based coach for their top three sports. So I mean, maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, we'll see. North Texas is generally head on most higher. So I guess you just kind of, you blindly trust and think it'll work out. - Yep, okay, let's hit tears in the American well. I will have you bat lead off. - Okay, so tier one, I'm gonna go five teams, six teams deep. - Okay. - I think that's reflective of what I think of this leak. Wichita one, Memphis two, South Florida three, Tulsa four, Charlotte five, UAB six. - I like it, we have the same top six. I have a tear break in there, I won't reveal yet, but I like it, that's same top six. - Tier two, North Texas FAU two lane. Tier three, Temple East Carolina, Tier four, UTSA rice. - Okay, I'm fairly similar, I think maybe the biggest divide is on two lane, and we'll get there in a second. So my tier one is Wichita State, Tulsa and Memphis. I am a believer in Conkel, maybe it's not quite the level of town that he had last year with Riley and Papula, David Green, but I think they continued to win there. Tier two, South Florida, which really got hurt by the injury, the transfer, Dancler, the transfer from Coast Carolina is gonna be out for the season that hurt them. I probably would have had them to your one with him in there. So they start tier two, Paul by UAB, Charlotte, North Texas FAU and Temple, which they're also hoping to get Darian Ford, five for five, another really, really big one. He would be a needle mover for Temple. Tier three, East Carolina, UTSA, ahead of Tulane, and so that's my 10, 11, 12. That's a little bit, yeah, bold call there. UTSA was atrocious last year, but I think they could elevate to just kind of run of the mill bad this year. That's my hope for them for the road runner. - Okay. And then Tier four alone, I have rice. I have some concerns about rice this year, but we don't need to dwell on them. That feels like bullying. - So that's me when I leave the burner on too long. I got some concerns about rice this year. - Do you think like UTSA could benefit from their players just not throwing games? - I think it would be. - Allegedly. - I think it would be massive for them. Yeah, I mean, that all goes back to two years ago when there's, I forget the name of the guy that was alleging they weren't paying their players, and I think some players said they were owed money, and maybe that's why they're trying to supplement their incomes, 'cause the NIL, I thought they're gonna get, they're having to go to seedier ways of making money. - So I brought this question up last year, and we'll just go over it really quick 'cause we do have a conference to go. But Temple, I guess I just don't understand the Adam Fisher thing, like why he would be brought back. Not that I think Temple is as amazing job as it would have been 20 years ago, certainly, but it's in Philly. I don't think it's a bad job. It's a team and a top 10 league across both sports, football and basketball. Temple football has not been terrible in recent times. Is this just like a buyout thing? Are they waiting to save money? Because what about 181st, 173rd, and 159th demands a fourth year? - Yeah, maybe he's going for the record of having, he already has the three worst seasons and can found history at Temple. Three worst finishes. - Sure, he has a fourth. - He has a fourth. - Aaron McKee. - Yep, all three of his seasons are worse than all of Aaron McKee's four finishes. Now the win-loss results are basically the same as McKee, they're just floating around 500, but yeah, if McKee didn't get a fifth year, unless Fisher has a massive breakthrough this year, I don't see how you do it. I kind of like their back court, that's why I ended up buying in a little bit. They've got Dillard the D2 transfer to go as white and Jason Drake, who sat out at Indiana. I can squint and see it, especially if they get forward back, but defenses haven't been good there and it might not be good again this season, so that could be their major downfall. - So same athletic director for the record. I did go and check though. - Okay. - That does matter. - Which changes there. - hesitant to pull the plug on his own higher. - Possibly, and they, well, they did fire their football coach and hire a new one, it seems. - Okay. - So maybe. - All right, quick question. Just answer on your gut. Order these three coaches, who would you most rather have coaching your team this year? Chris Mack, Andy Kennedy, Wes Miller. - Kennedy Miller Mack. - I think that's the same order I would go. I think South Florida, with Dancler, might have had one of the best, like top two roster in the conference, but I just don't have the faith in Mack at this point. Okay, on to the Missouri Valley, the MVC, the Valley, RIP, their tournament format, arch madness, is not quite going to be the same anymore, but it's okay. They're giving advantages to their top teams. What do you got for your MVC number, Will? - Two, and this is the number of Chase Walker's and Johnny Kinsinger's that are somehow back at Illinois State. How does this keep happening? - For the second straight year. - How? - What is there at IL? - I have no idea. - It's gotta be good. - It wasn't last year. I think it was like, they took pay cuts to stay. I don't know if they found more this year. - So I don't think either is good defensively. I think that's pretty clear. Maybe you can make a statsy argument for Kinsinger to possibly have some good defensively. He does create steals at least, and he can stay in front of guys largely. But the counting stats, I understand. They took a little bit of a downturn last year. Walker didn't play as much. I think is that just South of 23 minutes of game. They might have had a case of too many cooks last year between Kinsinger, Walker, Tahrit Coleman, Typehence, Bones Goonberg. They might have just had like a little too much. And so maybe that's why they had, what I would qualify as not like a truly disappointing season. Like it was disappointing in some ways, but they still made the NIT semi-finals. I don't think that's a bad outcome for the school of their caliber. But I wonder if this year they maybe have the year they should have had. Because now it's a Kinsinger walkinger. It's the walkinger show again. And like you get Damarian Birchin as a low-ish usage guard wing type thing, Zaxden King is such a great name. How's that guy not going to own a Zaxpies one day? Zaxden King from Missouri State, who is one of the less abject players, Conzo Roster last year I would argue. And then a transfer that I'm just plainly in on, just blindly choosing to believe here, whether it's a backup or a combo starter with Walker, Noah Cleveland from D3 Illinois Wesleyan, Illinois Wesleyan, a very good D3 school. I believe top 20 most years. Cleveland 19 and 11 to go with two blocks and two steels averaged per game, that's gonna play. I think like that type of guy just generally seems to work in the NPC. I'm in on whatever it is they're going to be this year. I like this team. I like Pete and I understand. I know like there's some Ken Palm numbers that maybe I shouldn't love as much, but like for instance, this Cleveland guy was like a top five player in D3 last year. He probably could have gone to a better school. This staff seems to have the eye for identifying under loved talent. And somehow, some way they keep getting them to come back. Like I know, Schoonberg has gone, Coleman's gone, but you get Kensinger and Walker back, that's a big deal. - Yeah, bringing them back for a second straight year. Last year it was kind of a coup that they got them back. And to do it again is a major testament, I think to like peed and building relationships and just them, you know, finding a way to keep those guys. Here's the, I think the biggest reason Cleveland matters. When Walker was off the court and league play last year, Illinois State was 25 points worse for a hundred possessions. And that's with like, you know, he's playing just over 50% of minutes. We've got really good sample size on both ends. They were 13 and a half points better in offense. And 11 and a half points better on defense when Walker was on the court. So now they've got a guy that can give them some more interior scoring, give them a presence at the rim. I just don't think Brandon Leib was the level of player they needed there. So whether they play those two guys together, I think Walker's at his best is like, D, Fulcrum in the paint, give it to him, let him either score one on one or pass out a double teams. I think that's the best way to do it. So I would stagger them. But just having a guy that you can turn to when he's off the court and not really suffer and have a drop off at the center spot, I think is massive for them. So I think the defense does fall off, I think. Coleman was a big part in having the defense elevate last year. It was awesome on the ball, but Illinois State could have a a little like mini post. I think everybody was hyped for them last year. I could see them elevating up to, do you think they could win the league? Murray State's so talented, sure they could. I think like this is, I mean, I'll spoil. I think like the top end of this league is pretty flat in that it had like the top three or so teams all ranked fairly similarly. Like Murray State has the most talent for sure, but I don't think it's by like 50 spots in terms of talent. Like Illinois State could win the league, UIC could do it. And at this point, once you get to Archman's, I just kind of blindly believe whoever wins the league. Regular season's not going to win the tournament unless they are like 24/25 Drake or something. So. Yeah, like way, way ahead and shoulders above. Yeah, I just the Murray State like if you flip there, if I don't know, their roster is so good, but I just want to see a little more from Ryan Miller. I think I've said it on this show. Their defense seemed like a quit multiple times during the season last year. I mean, they give it like 68 points in the second half to Belmont at one point. Just it just got ugly on that and they've got to figure that out. And speaking of Belmont, my number for the MVC, 136.4. That is Belmont's offensive rating when Jack Smiley and Dylan played together or two rising sophomores. They're both all freshman Missouri Valley honorees in league play. They played a lot of minutes together too, like over 200. So to have a 136, O rating when those guys were together, I think is pretty staggering. Their third major returner in the lineup is Jabba's Jenkins. When you put those three together, the actual O rating went up and went to 137.2 in 92 minutes. So this offense could be a true terror. I think Joey Dwyer wrote something about Smiley on basketball and review earlier this off season and how he's kind of their next great star there. The counting stats are not going to blow you away, but if you kind of break out his season and how good he was down the stretch in the league play. He could be a mega star in this conference. And I know we mentioned the Belmont partnership at the top of the show. I had forgotten about that when I did the statistics. So there's no bias coming in here. I also like that they brought in Evan Brad's coach. He's well regarded as an offensive mastermind. I think he really helped do class here. Some of the inverted pick and roll stuff they did with Cambuser and Isaiah Evans. So they're going to be creative. I think they're going to find a way to do it. I think Murray State is the most talent. UIC has the most continuity. Like you said, Indiana or Illinois State has Walker and Kinziger, but I think Belmont's going to be right back in that mix despite losing your coach in a lot of pieces. Yeah, Brad's, I mean, if he's as important to just like all around on court stuff as Duke, people say he is. I think he, we mentioned him in our jump seat pod as a genuine potential candidate for a one and done like do so well this year that he gets hired by a low NP five or something. I think that's totally possible. Smiley and Dylan are awesome. I think this is going to be your standard like really fun Belmont offense as usual. No shocker there. I want the surprise if they take a very mild step forward defensively. They've got an actual legit five in the FAU transfer. And this Ethan Sage guy coming from D2 Pittsburgh State, not to get heavy like we mentioned all the time. I don't love counting stats for the obvious reasons. You can kind of rig them in your favor however you want. But as a six foot seven wing, putting up the numbers of 10 and seven to go with combined two and a half steals and blocks per game as a true freshman is pretty good. Like his defensive numbers at D2 are really strong and I'm wondering if Belmont might actually have an on-ball stopper like a wing stopper for the first time in a while. They haven't had one in a few years. So if he can translate appropriately and doing all that as a freshman, I think as a freshman again playing 34 minutes per game and what I think is the single best D2 league could be a pretty useful fun piece for the Bruins in year one. Yeah. They very intriguing lineup build like Caden Fish is a six six 260 pound five man that started his career at Iowa State like you kind of have some upside there to go with as you mentioned Nugibar or the big German from FAU, Alexa Ristich comes from Indiana, big time shooter. They find ways to make shooters work in this Belmont offense. So it's a it's a team that I think has some real upside. Now, not as high as Murray State's upside just because like I said, their roster is loaded. I mean, they they went international hard and the two guys they bring in, um, Pavley, Nikolich and Mark Pagin to go with bringing back Roman Delman and Mattis Corban, the two French guys from last year. Caden Magwood was the top 50s recruited Auburn, like it's kind of insane. I mean, they even swiped Brigham Rodgers from Belmont, a guy that probably would have started for Belmont this year. So they they've got an incredible roster to and we'll see if Will has them at number one in his tears in a second here, but that overcoming the talent in that roster is going to be really, really tough to do. All right. Let's see the let's see the Missouri Valley tears you've got for us will. Okay. Tier one Murray Illinois State UIC Belmont, Tier two, man, this is a mess, Drake, Valpo, Northern Iowa, Bradley, Southern Illinois, Tier three Indiana State, Tier four Evansville. Oh, wow. We are really similar. Okay. I like it. I think the Seventhsville team is a DOA. I I think there's a chance they're like bottom 20 in the country, which is sad to say. But yes, Tier one for me, Murray State, UIC Belmont, Illinois State, I think any of those teams could win it. I think if I was going purely on roster, Murray State would be on tier by itself, but I got a I need to prove it season out of Ryan Miller and his staff. Tier two, Northern Iowa, Valpo, Drake, Bradley, Southern Illinois, I thought having Southern Illinois, a Tier above Indiana State might be by like semi bold call here, but we'll see what Nagsia will do. It's a lot of non division one newcomers, whether it's Juco or D2, I'd have Bradley higher, but their star point guard, Georgie Gergenoff, I think is his name, Torres ACL, big time Euro group, so they kind of had to pivot there. They'd put a lot of eggs in that basket, so I think Bradley is going to have a tough year, which is rare underwarned. They're typically very good, but I'm with you, Tier three Indiana State, Tier four Evansville, I have them separate, sadly, I just think I've got to put them down there. I mean, they could be they were very bad last year, 725, 317 and yet I think last year's roster was better. So never really a good sign for things, I would say. Yeah, I did not backfill many important holes, some of the guys they brought in, I'm just not a big fan of, so and a lot of freshmen. Do you think David Raglan is quiet quitting? No, I think David Raglan has a lot of zest for the job. I just I don't know if they have any money and he's probably trying to go with the what's built internally, I mean, their roster is like 90% sophomores and freshmen, they bring back AJ Casey as a fifth year big man, who I think got a red shirt year, but everything else is like we're we're building internally and we're going to try to see who who we have and then try to retain the future, but this year could be ugly. Yeah, I mean, like you look at the, I mean, the recent history is just so sad. So did they, I don't recall, did they fire Marty Simmons or did he, they did, they did fire him. Yeah. To bring in Walter McCarty, like, we're not have done that, I'm not going to, I'm not going to re list what Walter McCarty did at Evansville, but it wasn't good on or off the court. Yeah. Okay. I believe that is it. That is our previews of conferences six through 10. Bill, do you have any further comments for the people who've gone a little long? So I think we can get out here unless you've got more to add nothing inflammatory. I'm still cooking up my take purge stuff every time I think of one add it to the notes on my phone. So I don't forget. So my, I've got a good airport one for when the time comes. Got some good basketball ones for when the time comes. I need it to not be so damn hot though. So like when we were watching, again, 20 seconds, we were watching the local news last night. They do like the whole map of the US with like temperatures everywhere. It's like 93, 95, 94 everywhere around here, Chicago, 77, and I just like sink in my chair. I'm like, well, we got some sub 70 temps recently. It felt a little like fall and I can't wait to put a sweatshirt on and go outside. It's going to feel glorious. Yeah. I might be able to do that in November. Yeah, you know, we'll see. Just got to come back to Chicago. That's my pitch. You don't have to sell me on that. All right. Perfect. Perfect. All right. Thank you everybody for tuning in. We'll be kicking off our P5 previews next week. probably split the teams down the middle and come up with numbers for each individual team. That's what we did last year. I think it worked out really well, but that will start and then we'll have the take per episode right before the season starts. So I gotta start a notes app as well 'cause it does happen where I come up with something and then I just forget it. So I'll get that going. That is it though. Thank you to Trillie Donovan for the platform to do stats here. Remember this is statistical, what was it again? I gotta go back to the top. Statistical tailored analysis talk show. That's what we are here at Stats. So thank you to Trillie. Thank you to Corey Aldis for producing. Thank you to Sam Freyer for our graphics and to Home Field for continuing to sponsor us. We love you Home Field. And thanks to the listeners. We love you tuning in. Join the Discord, tell a friend. That would be great. We'll be back next week with insert P5 Conference preview X. Looking forward to it. See you then. (gentle music)