SpaceX Goes Public Tomorrow — Look Out Below

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Now available wherever you buy stocks. Visit getvcx.com for more info. That's getvcx.com. Carefully consider the investment material before investing including objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other information will be found in the funds perspective at getvcx.com. This is a paid sponsorship. I don't think I want to raise girls who are nice. Girls who are nice are pliable and do what other people tell them so that they can be liked. This week on Project Swagger, the incredible Shonda Rives. I felt really overwhelmed after Grace was a giant hit and then I thought like well how am I supposed to do this again? We talk about motherhood, confidence knowing your worth and adding tax. If you go in already thinking to yourself I have to take a deal I have to make this deal. You've already lost. Listen now at Project Swagger. If money is evil then that building is hell. Welcome to Prof.G. Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is June 11th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices all tumbled more than 1.5% after President Trump expressed frustration that negotiations with Iran were taking too long. The S&P 500 hit a 5 week low and then after hours the US began striking multiple targets in Iran at which point the price of Brent crude climbed. Meanwhile the yield and tenure treasuries was mostly stable despite the hottest inflation report in three years. More on that later. Okay. What else is happening? It is a monumental week for the AI industry. SpaceX is expected to price tonight and will begin trading on the Nasdaq tomorrow in what will be the largest IPO of all time. Currently shares for SpaceX are more than four times over subscribed, employing at least $300 billion in invested demand. Meanwhile open AI filed confidentially for its IPO earlier this week, hot on the tail of Anthropic. So very soon the public markets are going to get an unprecedented look into the business of AI. In the meantime we got a preview of investor sentiment on AI from Oracle's earnings last night, which sent the stock plummeting 8%. For more on what is next for the AI trade and also his thoughts on the SpaceX IPO. We are speaking with Gil Luria head of technology research at D.A. Davidson. Gil is good to see you. An unbelievably important week for the markets here and I think we got to start with SpaceX 1.77 trillion dollar valuation. It's priced at 95 times sales. I've made my opinion on the matter quite known to our audience. I think it's overvalued, but I'd love to hear your views. My view is going to be more descriptive than prescriptive. When I've been following Elon Musk companies for more than a decade and they rarely trade on fundamentals. They rarely trade on the same valuation metrics as other companies. I've thought about why that is. I think the answer is that Elon has this trick that he plays. He has the business that he has today, the business that's on the come, and then the big dream business. For Tesla, the business he has today is selling cars. The business that's on the come is robot taxi and then somewhere down the line there's Optimus robots running around. The equivalence for SpaceX is right now we have Starlink. Soon we'll have orbital data centers and then eventually we're putting a million people in on Mars. That allows him to get away from having his companies valued on the fundamentals of what he has today. Because there's always something bigger coming near term and then something even bigger coming long term. That's how he doesn't win Tesla and he's been successful doing it with Tesla for a long time. Now it seems to be working for SpaceX. Having said all that, I think it's great that you're cautioning people ahead of tomorrow by or beware. I'm skeptical how many people will actually believe in that story. The putting people on Mars, I mean it's one thing to say we're going to put these humanoid robots into the world, which by the way at least they've shown some models of how it would look. But putting people on Mars, to me it starts to go from optimism to delusion. I'm skeptical of how many people actually believe this thing is actually going to happen. I guess my thought is that we're going to see a lot of selling activity, at least when these lockups start to expire. How do you think the stock will trade over the course of the day in the next weeks and months as well? I think it will be very volatile and I think that's going to add a lot of volatility to the market. Because when you don't have a valuation backdrop, when you don't have comparable, then to your point, it can trade at 95 times rather than it can trade at 50 times, it can trade at 150 times. There's no rhyme or reason. It really is about how many people buy into that vision and continue to hold on to that vision. And there's the excitement that we're going to have tomorrow. There's going to be the lockups, very significant lockups after that. There's going to be index inclusions. There's going to be index non-inclusions. We wouldn't should expect more volatility in this stock than anything we've seen in a stock of this size. And again, it's going to also have a big impact on the market. It already has. We've seen a lot of capital taken out of a lot of other technology stocks, a lot of the rest of the AI trade in order to fund this. Because if they're issuing 75 billion and it's four times over subscribed, that means investors have 300 billion dollars ready to invest. They're not going to get their full allocation, but they have to have it in cash just in case they do. So a lot of capital has already been pulled out of the market and we're going to have to see what happens in order to perpetuate this. Plus, you've got open AI coming up, you've got anthropic coming up, you've got Google's 85 billion dollar equity offering, you've got meta supposedly considering a similar thing, you've got Oracle which we could get into which just announced a 20 billion dollar equity offering, I believe, 20 billion dollars in debt as well. It's starting to get to the point where there is so much stock being issued into the markets and jacked into the markets. I'm not totally sure if people even have the money to buy all of this stuff. And if they don't, then they're going to have to sell their existing positions. It sounds like you believe that that is what is already happening and that might describe why we've seen some of the draw downs in some of the larger tech names over the past few days. Is that what's going to happen and do you think it could get, I guess, worse? Yeah, there's going to be a lot of sloshing around of capital. And the reason is part of the reason, and this is going to be even more so when open AI and anthropic go public because SpaceX is bigger than AI, right? It's about space exploration and expanding consciousness into the stars, a literal quote from the S1. But open AI and anthropic are the pure plays on AI, the big pure plays on AI. So if so far in the market, you've invested every other way in AI by buying semis and optical and nuclear and quantum and all these other ways to invest indirectly in AI, now you're going to get a chance to invest directly in AI. And so again, a lot of capital is going to be pulled from the rest of the AI trade into open AI and anthropic. And part of this is a race because you mentioned the mega caps are going to the capital markets. These three IPOs are happening. This is each of them wants tens of billions, maybe even a hundred billion dollars to raise. There's a finite amount of capital that can come out of everything else. And so to some extent, this is a race. I think when we heard open AI, when opening AI said when they filed confidentially is we'd rather stay private, but we understand that we may need to go public, which is code for we may need to be anthropic out or at least be soon after anthropic because we don't want them to drive a narrative to drive how disclosures happen, what metrics get reported. So a rush to capital right now from all these big players, which implies something which seems to me to be quite important, which is if they're racing to sell now, that's because they believe if they sell later, there will be less of available capital and they won't be able to command the prices at which they would like to sell today. So SpaceX seems to have timed it great, but the further you go down the line, it seems that like these CEOs like Sam Altman believe there might not be as much capital available later down the line, which makes me feel a little bit bearish to be honest and makes me think that maybe we're at the top, they think that now is the time to sell clearly, because that's what they're doing. It makes me think maybe look out below. What do you think about that thesis that potentially this IPO race, this IPO mania could signal the top at least for the tech sector? I'm a little bit more optimistic from the overall perspective, because I actually think the AI models are very powerful and they're getting a lot better. The folks that have been using Fable from Anthropical Alaska, a couple of days are saying that's another big leap forward, and we're already getting a lot of good usage from the other AI models. And then the day, this is what matters. Our consumer is going to pay subscriptions for AI, our company is going to pay for the tokens coming from these AI models. As long as that happens, we're going to continue to see growth. When these companies are doing their racing to capital, it's not necessarily that they're saying that their valuations are peaking. They're saying what you said earlier, which is if I don't get the capital now, it may not be around later because everybody else will have stood in line first. This is a game of kings and queens. You can't participate in AI without tens of billions and hundreds of billions of dollars. And if you think that the couple is going to run out at some point, you want to be early. By the way, also compliments to Google for being early with the very big fundraise this week. And again, I wouldn't expect Amazon and Microsoft to linger in the background. They understand this is a race. They understand that they're starting to exhaust their operating cash flow and they will need resources in order to keep building the AI compute data centers. Final question. And then we'll let you go out of there if you're going to answer it because you didn't quite answer it before. Do you think SpaceX is overvalued or undervalued? I try not to do that with the Elon companies because I don't think their valuation has ever made sense. It's never been had anything to do with fundamentals. So people are buying a dream and a story and hope and sometimes that works out. It sure didn't work out for Tesla holders that bought the stock 50 years ago. It didn't do. All right. Gilauria, head of technology research at DA Davidson. Gail, thank you so much. Appreciate your time. Thank you. [MUSIC] The edition rose 4.2% in May from a year earlier, the hottest reading in three years. Fuel oil is up nearly 60% from a year earlier and airfare is up 27%. And for the second straight month, real wages fell, meaning prices are rising faster than paychecks. The report has investors rethinking the Fed's path ahead. The odds of a rate hike before the end of the year are now around 50% on Calche. Joining us to discuss this inflation report we are speaking with our friend Mark Zandee, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. Mark, thank you for joining me on the show. It's always good to see you. I guess my first question here, 4.2%, I mean, this number is staggering to me. Seems like it's all Iran. Is that right? It could be Western. No, it's more than Iran. I mean, obviously Iran's a big part of it. The bulk of the inflation acceleration is energy prices. But it goes to the tariffs. There's still some tariff pass through. It goes to the restrictive immigration policy, which is having an impact on different industries and causing sticky service price inflation. And also AI, artificial intelligence, the AI is juicing up demand of the data center infrastructure build out consumer spending because of the wealth effects. But it's not lifting supply, at least not yet, to any significant degree. The productivity boosts so far has been pretty small. So more demand as much supply that adds to inflation, you can see electricity prices, you can see it on chip prices. So there's a lot of stuff going on here. Inflation is up for a lot of different reasons. But the bulk of it is the Iran war. I guess the next question is, how long is this going to last? I mean, it's been going up and up and up. If we stick around at 4.2%, I mean, we're over 2% of points above the Fed's target rate. This problem only seems to be getting worse. I think the question on investor's minds is, how long is this going to persist? Well, it does depend on the war, right? I mean, if the war is kind of close to peaking, winding down here, and oil prices are not going any higher. They're around 100 bucks a barrel if that's where they stay, come in a little bit. Then the worst of the inflation is behind us. But there's not going back to the 2% inflation rate that the Fed would consider to be appropriate, comfortable for a long time. I mean, when I say a long time, Ed will be talking a year from now, inflation will still be above target maybe two years from now. Even if everything sticks to script, including the Iran war winding down. So we may be past the worst of it, but we're not getting back to where we're anytime soon. Do you think it will get worse? This is the thing that I'm not sure what to expect. And we saw back in 22, we saw a similar thing of inflation kind of ripped back up. It went as high as 8%, 9%. It got really bad. I mean, how much worse do you expect it will get in this round of inflation? Well, I do expect the president to come to terms with the Iranians and open up the straight and get production, oil production ramping up back up again and oil prices move in south again. So I think that's the most likely scenario, but as you know, we're looting to, there's a gazillion different scenarios here. And almost all of them are worse than the baseline, you know, inflation being higher for longer. The one thing I do think that we need to watch, though, to answer your question is inflation expectations. I mean, if expectations continue to, for inflation continue to rise, particularly the bomb market expectations, then the risk is that this inflation becomes more persistent, more entrenched. And obviously has big implications for what the Fed's going to do. So far, the inflation expectations, they're on the high side of where I think the Fed would feel comfortable, but they haven't kind of breached, you know, up to the upside. But that's something to watch to answer your question. Just to game theory this out, like let's imagine a world where Trump does not figure out how to negotiate with Iran. The straight remains closed or the situation persists as it is, as hard as I was, whether it's closed or open or who's blockading what point is it's not going great over there. That's all we know. If it remains as is, call it for the next six, nine, twelve months, does the number get worse and worse and worse? Or do you expect that it will plateau at some point? No, that's a pretty ugly scenario because we're running out of inventories. I mean, you know, global inventories of oil have been being significantly drawn down. I think you have to go back to the early eighties to find inventories as low as they are today. And compared to the size of the economy, we have to go back even further. So there's just no inventory. And if we don't see a resolution to the war, if the straight doesn't open, if production doesn't pick up those inventories, you're going to get to a place where we're going to start seeing actual shortages, physical shortages, maybe not in the United States, because we produce a lot of oil, we produce as much oil as we consume, but in other parts of the world. And I think at that point, traders and everyone else would come to the conclusion that, well, this isn't going to come to a quick end. You know, we got a problem here. We need much higher oil prices to equate demand with the reduced supply. And that means much higher prices and that means much higher inflation. And that's a scenario where you do get inflation expectations, you know, breaching the upper limits of what the favor and feel comfortable with. And that's a pretty dark scenario. But clearly, the scenario was a mean for probability attached to it. In other words, it sounds like almost all of this rests on Trump's ability to negotiate a deal with Iran. It sounds like you are somewhat confident that he will pull that off in the near to medium term. I guess my question is, why do you feel that way? Well, you know, the president, you know, whatever you think of them, the one thing you can say is that, you know, he, if things aren't working out in the way he wants them to help pivot 180 degrees to clear victory and move on. At least that's been what he's done so far. So I'm applying the same kind of logic to my thinking around what he's going to do here. He's desperately obviously trying to figure out a way to wind this thing down to clear victory and move on. And so hopefully he finds that sooner rather than later. Otherwise, we're going to be in a boatload or hurt. And you know, that, the scenario where he doesn't come to terms in the next few weeks, next month or so, you know, that's the recession scenario, a stagnation recession scenario. I personally don't feel so optimistic about it, but part of it is something, some of the things that he said about, he's not worried about it. And then he also said this thing about inflation yesterday. We have a clip of what he said. He was asked about this inflation report. I'm just going to play this clip and I'd love to get your reactions. No, I love it. I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know, I can say it now, something you didn't know. Do you know we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't know about it? Iran until right now. loves inflation because that taking barrels out, I don't fully understand what he's saying. Is there any way to make sense of what he's saying? You can make sense though. And I don't think I can, but I certainly can't. I'm not sure what he's talking about. I mean, I don't know. There's nothing worse than inflation on every level. I mean, you know, it's bad for consumers, bad for households, it's bad for businesses, it's bad for investors. It's bad for the fair reserve board. It's a lose, lose, lose, lose. So I don't know. I don't get it. But I'm not sure. I don't know that I attach a whole lot of weight to that and say that that's what he actually believes. I'm not sure. That's the case. Okay. Mark Zandee, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. Mark, thank you for joining us on Prof. T. Markets. Anytime, thanks so much. Thanks for the break. Apple's AI strategy disappoints again. And for even more, Markets Insights, you can subscribe to my weekly newsletter, simply put at simplyput.proftymedia.com. This week, model sports illustrated cover girl and entrepreneur Ashley Graham talks about the time she almost quit. I called my mom and I said, "Mom, I just, I'm not going to do this anymore." And she told me, "No, you are going to stick this out. Your body is going to change someone's life. Every decade, you're going to go through something different." So be really happy with who you are right now because things change. Check out pretty tough new episodes on Wednesdays. You can watch it on YouTube or listen in your favorite podcast app. Support for the show comes from SOFI. If you're a parent helping your child navigate college, you know just how fast the cost can pile up between tuition, housing, textbooks, and everyday living expenses, funding higher education is a major financial commitment. That's where today's sponsor SOFI comes in. SOFI offers private student loans that can cover up to 100% of school certified costs, not just undergrad and graduate tuition, but SOFI can also help cover housing, books, food, and other education-related expenses. 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Just one seamless system that makes work easier. And the best part? ODO replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. It's built to grow with your business, whether you are just starting out or already scaling up. Plus, it is easy to use, customizable and designed to streamline every process. So you can focus on what really matters. Running your business. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you? Try ODO for free at ODO.com. That's ODO.com. We're back with ProvG markets. Apple has finally shown up to the AI race, but it might be too little too late. At its worldwide developers conference on Monday, the company unveiled Siri AI, the updated assistant will be powered by Google's Gemini. However, Siri AI has no firm release date, and it won't be available in the EU or in China when it launches. Apple stock hit a record high during the keynote address on Monday, but it quickly reversed course. And since then, shares have shed more than 7%. So we're here to help us break down Siri AI and what it means for investors. We're speaking with Alex Heath, author of the sources newsletter and co-host of the Access Podcast, and Alex has been at the worldwide developers conference. Alex, good to see you. The thing that jumps out to me here is the fact that Apple comes out with this AI product. It was supposed to be exciting. It was supposed to inspire confidence in investors, and the stock has shed more than 7% of its value. So we'll get into that. But what did we learn at this conference, and what do we know about Siri AI? I don't know. I'm not an expert on this. Maybe the reason for the sell-off is that this is kind of what they showed off two years ago. If folks remember, they had this glitzy marketing push around what Siri was going to be. There were a bunch of TV commercials. They even got sued over false advertising around this, I believe. And they never shipped it. And I think what we saw, what I saw at Apple, when I was there a few days ago, was essentially that vision of a more agentic Siri that can actually understand and connect dots between data on your Apple device. And they have made a meaningful improvement there. There's no question that this is a more capable Siri. Is it anywhere near as capable as what we're seeing from Anthropic, right, which just put out its Smithos class model Fable this week, or where Chatchee BT is going, and where Codex is going, no, it's nowhere near that. And also, I think people were unclear about the level of integration that Apple was going to have with Google and Gemini, right? There was all this reporting going into Dub Dub, which is what Apple calls it, Dub Dub, about how much Google would be powering the new Siri. And it turns out they are. But what Apple's essentially doing is a bunch of distillation on top of Google's models and post-training and customization, where they can essentially ingest Google's model and kind of do what they want with it. And so it's not like Gemini in the essence of how someone would experience Gemini in a Google surface or on Android is what's actually underneath Siri. It's actually many steps removed from what you'd experienced on a Google surface, which means that Apple's doing a lot of its own work around that. And I think people are still skeptical that Apple can pull it together here and whether they can catch up. And maybe they don't feel like they need to. That was kind of the message I got from executives there at Apple Park was they think it's early. They think all this Asian hype is mostly that, still hype. Brittle, not really working. Certainly not working at scale on a platform like Apple with billions of users. But you saw them take little, I would say, inch forward steps towards a more capable series, certainly. It seems like Wall Street was generally underwhelmed by their AI integration here, which I mean, at the time when AI is everything to investors, that seems like a really bad thing to underwhelm with your AI product release, was that your reaction? I mean, you say that they made like a meaningful improvement, but did you find it personally underwhelming as someone who covers this stuff regularly? Yeah, I mean, here's the thing the bar with Siri is so low. I don't know about you. I don't trust Siri with anything other than like setting a timer. In fact, Siri for me is frequently the thing that I'm annoyed by because it's accidentally sending a text to someone when I don't want it to. That's usually my experience with Siri. I turn it off. I don't want to use it ever. Yeah. So to improve beyond that is not a huge bar, right? It's like you're not accidentally texting someone you meant to just say aloud to someone in a room. That said, they have built this new, you know, I was in this Q&A that exact set after the keynote, which by the way, Apple's never done. They've never done it on the record, press Q&A after a keynote, which I think goes to show the level of concern they had about how all this was going to be interpreted. And they were talking about how the new foundation of Siri is modern, adaptable. They use the word expandable when asked about agents, which I think suggests that they're, you know, yes, those Siri were seeing now. This new series is not, it's like Chatshipy T from two years ago, but the foundation of it is finally a stack that is something they can quickly adapt as they see fit. I saw an investor after the keynote at Apple Park who made the very smart observation that Apple is essentially turned Siri into a harness and the models underneath are flexible and replaceable and swappable, right? Right. Now it's Google. I don't think it will ever be open AI again. By the way, I think that partnership is on the outs. I wrote about that on sources. But maybe one day it's cloud. Maybe it's one day it's an open source model that they've distilled on. Maybe it's their own fully frontier Apple models, which they are still investing in their own models, especially on device. But yeah, they're not, they're nowhere near where the state of current AI tools are, right? The new Siri doesn't have memory. It can't remember things across different conversations it forgets every time. Which if you're using cloud and Shashy PT, like we are, that's kind of wild in 2026. And I think that's partly because maybe the technical foundation isn't there, but also because Apple's really concerned about the privacy of this stuff and the branding risk of it. And maybe we'll have a Cambridge Analytica moment around AI. I don't think it's happened quite yet, but I think they're worried about that. And so they're taking small steps. But I think setting themselves up in a way where they could lean in aggressively when they feel like the time is right. I mean, I said this before, I think, on the show. Until people stop buying iPhones, because of AI, Apple's gonna do just fine. And in fact, in meetings I had with executives, they were touting open-claw driving up Mac mini sales, right? So they're a hardware layer beneficiary of AI and agents right now, even though they don't have a great software experience. Based on what you said about how they're thinking about agentic AI, the how they're thinking, they said that they think that agents are kind of overhyped right now, or at least it's very early, in combination with the fact that they have come out with what is a largely underwhelming and I would say, dumber than average AI product. My takeaway is it sounds like Apple does not take AI very seriously. Would you say that that is a fair characterization? I think there's nuance. I think they take it seriously, but they don't have this religious fervor, and I use religious intentionally, I think when you look at how anthropic talks about AI, it's almost like they see it as a deity, right? I don't think they have this fervor around the technology as this bigger than life thing the way that the labs do. And I think they see it as a tool and as a new kind of technology substrate that they'll build their platforms on over time. But they have the luxury of just kind of watching and learning as people experiment and fail and maybe succeed on the margin on the frontier, and they can come in a cycle or two behind, which is, for people who study Apple, that's the history of Apple, right? I mean, there was the Blackberry before the iPhone, right? Obviously, PC was quite strong for the Mac, right? So I think they can wait, but I think the bigger long-term risk for Apple, if you're thinking about the stock in like 10 years, is do agents make the concept of an operating system as it exists today, RK, right? Is this service as business that is the majority of, you know, Apple's margin growth at risk from agents and then potentially new hardware form factors, like whatever open AI is gonna do with Johnny Ive, the meta-glasses, all of that, right? And Apple will do glasses, I think they're working on that. I think we'll probably see that next year. But yeah, I think that's the bigger long-term risk. Alex Heath, author of the sources, newsletters and co-hosts of the Access Podcast, Alex. Thank you so much. Always appreciate your time. Thanks, Ed. T-minus one day until SpaceX goes public. It will be the largest IPO of all time, a $75 billion offering at a $1.77 trillion valuation. My final message to our listeners before SpaceX starts trading publicly, my final message is do not buy this IPO. This company is dramatically overvalued and not only that, this is a rigged game and the game is not rigged in your favor. Here is my prediction for what will happen tomorrow. As soon as it hits the market, SpaceX stock will immediately explode 25%. Why? Because this is the hottest stock in the world and because the banks need this IPO to be quote unquote successful. Because if it goes badly, then all the other IPO's like open AI, like Anthropic will be called into question, which will be a huge problem for the underwriters and for the markets at large. In other words, the bankers won't let this fail. They have the capital to make sure it won't fail at least on the first day. However, my other prediction is that within six months, probably sooner, SpaceX stock will be cut in half. Why? Because the valuation makes no sense whatsoever. All of the insiders know this, all of the banks know this. And as soon as the lockups expire, you will see one of the largest selling events in market history. The stock will tank and you can lock that prediction in for me right now. One final point before we go, don't convince yourself that you can game this. If you buy the IPO tomorrow, you will already have missed the boat. The stock will pop as soon as it starts trading. And even if it starts to climb throughout the day, the reality is that those returns will be nothing compared to what the insiders have already gained. And spoiler alert, at that point, they will already be selling. You cannot win this game. You will not win this game. Do not buy SpaceX tomorrow. Okay, that's it for today. This episode was produced by a Claremiller, Ann Allison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Brad Williams. Our research team is Dan Shalan, Isabella Kinsel, Chris Nodon, Hugh and Mia Salverio. And our social producer is Jake McPherson. Thank you for listening to Profty Markets from Profty Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow. I'm Ed Elson, tune in tomorrow for our conversation with Howard Longs. Forming the one so hot right now. It's like if traders and succession at a baby on wheels. Teams lying, drivers beefing, celebrities everywhere, and scandals, lots of scandals. So we made a show about it, the Red Flags podcast, where we recap races and break down all the latest F1 headlines. But no nerdy tech talk. We only cover the stuff you'll want to hear about. Yeah, I'm the only thing hotter than the drivers are our takes. And now we're doing it on Vox. Oh, we're so legit now. We're basically thought leaders. Ted Talk incoming. And we do a podcast with Gunter Steiner called Venka Hours. I still can't believe that's true. Well, believe it. There is so much for the beautiful Vox Media audience to enjoy. So come check out the Red Flags podcast every Monday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.