Something BIG Is BREAKING In Russia Right Now… Even Putin KNOWS It's OVER

Putin is getting ready to escalate this war and mobilize another half a million Russian men, and for the first time in a very long time, Russians are actually out in the streets, but here's the strange part. These protests are not about mobilization, at least not yet. They're about something much, much smaller. The Kremlin is trying to ban a political party that has never actually won any elections, so the question becomes why? Why is the most powerful men in Russia dragging a tiny party into court and handing them all this attention. The answer to that question explains why Russia still has elections, but not really democracy. And as if that wasn't bad enough, Little Vladimir has started paying bounty hunters to capture his own citizens and send them to the front lines, and Russians are now getting tired of waiting hours for gasoline in one of the biggest old producing countries on the planet. And this all is happening right before an election that Putin cares a lot about. So let's get into all that starting with some context about why people are protesting. You see, coming up in September, Russia is holding state-do-my-elections. That's just Russia's parliament, and they're also having some governor races. And I know what some of you guys are already thinking. Wait, Russia has elections? Well, this is where I want to share a joke that some of my Russian viewers actually told me. Russia has democracy, it's just that the people don't know they can vote. It's a joke with some truth in it. As you guys might have guessed, the results of these elections are basically pre-decided. Putin's party is going to win, whoever Putin is backing will also win. But here's the thing, that doesn't really mean there's no opposition on the ballot. There is opposition, it's just managed opposition. Let me explain what I mean. There are parties inside Russia that oppose Putin and his party, but in name only. They argue about pensions or about roads or tax details. And that's all they do. They only want to focus on the small things that don't really matter. Behind the scenes, they're actually probably getting paid through the Kremlin, so they can benefit from playing the role of the opposition. What they never actually do is oppose the things that actually matter. And this actually has a name, it's called controlled opposition. And remember that term because it comes back later in the video. Now, problem with having controlled opposition is that every once in a while we have a party or a candidate who slips through the cracks, meaning he's not really controlled. He's the real deal, a real candidate that's a genuine threat to Putin. And that's a scary thing for a dictator, even in a pre-decided election. And this all brings us back to the party that everyone is protesting about. The party is called Gibolko, and hopefully I'm pronouncing that right, but it's basically the Russian word for apple. So, when you see these protest clips, you see the captions of people chanting apple? Well, they're not really chanting about the food, they're chanting party's name, but I'm guessing the automatic translation message is that. Now, Gibolko is the oldest liberal party inside of Russia. And in this election, it's the only party that's running on an anti-war platform. They have around 400 candidates across the country, and all of them are campaigning on this one main idea, where they want to stop the invasion of Ukraine. Now, that all sounds positive, but here's the strange part. This party is not big at all. Now, I always want to keep in mind that you cannot really trust numbers coming out of Russia, but according to Russian polling, and if we just look at registration data for this party, the party sits at around 3-2%, or 2-3% of support. They were never actually going to beat anyone in this election. And yet, right now, there's a judge in St. Petersburg that's deciding whether this party gets to exist on the ballot at all. And that's exactly what people are protesting. Here's that report. Hundreds of Russians have shown up to the Supreme Court in Moscow to voice opposition to Putin's new level of paranoia, where he will just ban a political party simply because it's challenging him, a party with 3% support, a party that's against war. So, look at this. This party wasn't a big deal. Putin gets this party to court, and now everyone's paying attention. The question becomes, why is Putin doing this? Why is he, accidentally, pumping all this attention to a party that was never a threat to begin with? Luckily, we have an answer. And like always, the answer is in history. We don't have to go too far back. We just have to go back to 2013, and it involves a name that you probably know, Alexei Navalny. You see, in 2012, Putin had just come back for a third term as president, and a lot of Russians were actually angry about how he did it, and that he's even doing it. He's breaking the constitution. Now, according to the Russian constitution, at that time, nobody in Russia could hold more than two consecutive terms. So, after being president from 2000 to 2008, Putin steps down, which basically means he became the prime minister, and he installed Medvedev as president. All the while, Putin is still running the country from behind the curtain. Then four years later, this swap back. And conveniently, the presidential term gets extended right before Putin takes over. So now, Putin could sit as president for six years instead of four. Now, I know in the future, Putin is going to go and change that law again, but that happens in the future, so it's not really important for the story right now. So, at the story, we are in 2012, Putin wins the election, but in Moscow, the capital of Russia, he doesn't even crack 50% of support. In fact, Moscow was one of the few places in the entire country where Putin fails to get majority. And on top of that, there were massive protests in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, where people were literally walking and chanting against Putin because they did not want to go back in time. They did not want to become the Soviet Union again. And this is problematic for Putin because Moscow is where the elites live, the journalist money, all that kind of stuff. And this is exactly when, when Putin was dealing with all this, we had a young lawyer who started becoming very popular online by exposing Kremlin's corruption. That lawyer's name was Alexei Navalny. He becomes so popular doing this that just a year later in 2013, Navalny decides to run for mayor of Moscow. And here's the surprising part. The Kremlin actually lets him run. They didn't really try to stop him or anything like that. At least not yet. Now, Putin did have a plan here. Remember, in Russia, the Kremlin controls everything, especially the information space. TV, radio, newspaper, anything you can imagine, it's all pro-Kremlin. So people didn't really know about Navalny. People online knew, young people knew, but vast majority of Russia's population didn't know who he was. And thinking about this, Putin basically said, or assumed that this guy wasn't going to win. He wasn't even going to make a dent in the election, so let's just let him run. And on top of that, internal Kremlin polling was showing that Navalny was going to win maybe single digits of voteshare, so he wasn't going to be a big deal. That is exactly why they let him run. The plan was to show everyone in Russia they would let the loudest critic in the country onto a real ballot, and then publicly destroy him in an election. The result would be proof to the public and to the elites that the system that Putin had built, well, it's rock solid, so don't even think about trying something. Unfortunately for a little Vladimir though, that's not what happened. In the election, Navalny ended up getting 27% of the vote, much higher than expected. He outperformed everyone's expectation, and Putin's candidate on the other hand, Sergei Sobayan, that was his name, got 51%. Now here's where this result becomes scary, because under Moscow's rule, under the Russian Constitution, if nobody clears 50%, the top two candidates actually go to a runoff. Sobayan cleared that threshold by just a single percent. One, now think about what would have happened if this race actually went to runoff. Sobayan versus Navalny, every single person who didn't vote for Sobayan in the first election now just had one choice, Navalny. Now we don't know if Navalny would have won, but the election the runoff would have been a lot closer than what Kremlin is comfortable with. So that's exactly why the Kremlin took away one lesson from 2013, and that lesson was basically never let an opposition candidate onto a ballot. No matter how small that candidate really is, and that brings us back to Yabalko, the political party we were talking about. Putin knows he was never gonna lose, he's never going to lose. But what he's actually afraid of is the vote count would prove to everyone exactly what percentage of the Russian public is against the war. Because remember, this is the only anti-war party on the ballot, which means every single vote for this party basically becomes a referendum on how many Russians actually oppose this war. That's the kind of data Putin does not want the public knowing, and Putin does not want the elites knowing, because that could become dangerous. Now, of course, there's a second layer to all this. Campaigns are basically legal organizing, and this party has 400 candidates, meaning 400 local operations where people who are anti-war Russians are getting together, meeting, talking, and coordinating. In a country that's actively crushing anyone who's trying to organize against the war, Putin does not want people to have a legal way to organize. This is exactly why he banned telegram before the mobilization comes in. This is exactly why he's pushing everyone onto this state app, state controlled app called Max, where he can literally read every single message you send to anyone. Putin really wants to make sure that the opposition doesn't even get an ounce of oxygen, and this is exactly why he's shutting down this party. Now, remember that term I mentioned earlier, controlled opposition? Well, this is where that comes into play. Because technically speaking, Putin isn't the one who's trying to shut down this party. It's another opposition party that followed a lawsuit against this the Abalco party. That's what I mean by controlled opposition. And if you have seen this story before too, whenever Putin Putin wants to do something, it's not his party that's doing the dirty work. It's some other party that suddenly comes up with that idea, then out of nowhere everyone just gets behind it. Putin's party, the parliament, even the court system as you guys will see in just a second. Now according to this controlled opposition party that followed the lawsuit, the claim is basically that Yabalka, this political party that's anti-war, is secretly funded from overseas. And that's why they should be banned. And the evidence they use for this claim is just laughable. They say that take a look at Yabalka's social media, or specifically their Instagram following the Instagram likes and their Instagram comments. And they said all these followers likes and comments that coming from outside of Russia. And guess what? Russian courts actually accepted it, which is honestly insane because I could just go bought Putin's account with say like 10,000 followers on Instagram. And according to this rule, now Putin would not be able to rule Russia because he has foreign supporters. Now, this all sounds stupid, but unfortunately it worked. Take a look. Russian Supreme Court decides to ban only pro-peace party from parliamentary elections. That's the Russian democracy, where even courts are not really independent. They just listen to what Putin wants and their rule accordingly. But luckily, here's the thing, hopefully this may be too little too late, because there are still Russians who are very, very unhappy with the war and very unhappy with Putin. And they're saying it out loud. Take a listen to this Russian actor who's telling Putin exactly what's going to happen to him. "Iranian drones won't help you. Calibers and grads won't help you. Your bullets will run out. You'll be trampled. I'll be glad." Now, remember how this video started, Putin preparing to mobilize another half a million men. It seems like that process is already underway and it's getting ugly. Russian army recruiters are resorting to increasingly coercive tactics, including snatching men off the street and tricking students into signing up, as Moscow's manpower advantage in Ukraine comes under strain. Now, this is not as widespread as Putin's probably going to do after the elections, but we are already seeing signs of this in the far-flung regions of Russia. Here, we have a clip of a family trying to stop Russian recruiters from basically kidnapping their kid. Iranian drones won't help you. And on top of that, here's the bounty program I mentioned at the start of the video. Putin is now offering high cash rewards to bounty hunters so they can capture their fellow Russians and send them to the front lines. These mobilization experts are earning up to $12,000, roughly a million rubles for capturing a Russian man and sending him to the front lines. Now, because of all this news and because of President Zelensky himself who keeps talking about Russia's upcoming mobilization, ordinary Russians are hearing too much about this and they're discussing this themselves. And that's something the Kremlin media cannot afford because that creates problems that Putin will have to deal with for a very long time. So take a look at this clip from Russian media and then I'll explain why they're so desperate to calm everyone down. Rumors that there's going to be mobilization, its enemy disinformation that has been eagerly picked up and spread across our social media and yet no one even stops to think for a second. Please tell me, what does mobilization actually mean? How do you imagine it? So now they'll come out and say that this is a war because for a full mobilization to happen, there has to be a war. So we declare war and everyone goes to the front. Which front? Everyone just gathers up and heads to the front. Given the conditions of modern warfare, this isn't the great patriotic war. The way it's conducted requires a very different set of knowledge, skills and training from a soldier, as well as different weaponry. This isn't the generation that went through Osoaviy Akim and DOSAF. These aren't the people who were taught basic military training in school. So basically, we've raised a generation that no longer really understands what's being asked of it. They think their job is to regularly pick their teeth with one finger, and then pick their ass with the same finger. In other words, these are completely different people. And you expect someone to come out and tell this society with so many dumbasses in it. Citizens of the motherland? The homeland is in danger. The conscious, responsible guys are already there anyway. Now, before we get into the reason, as to why Putin does not want Russians knowing about the mobilization, I have an important topic that I need to cover, something I just want to be straight up about. One thing I never liked is when podcasters end an episode by saying "please support the podcast", but they didn't really give you anything back in return. I've always felt that that's backwards. That's exactly why we built basics insider. You can become a member right now by clicking the first link in the show descriptions. And if you become a member, you're not just supporting us, you actually get something valuable in return. Every single day, we upload exclusive videos that don't appear on the main feed. We go much deeper into the stories we cover, spend more times on details that don't fit into these long episodes, and best of all, I truly mean that. We bring on experienced military veterans, like Chuck Far, to break down exactly what's happening on the front lines, break down the footage that we can show here on the main feed, and explain what's happening and separate the facts from propaganda. It's our uncensored, extended coverage for people who want to understand these conflicts beyond the headlines. And yes, of course, the membership helps us a lot. The reality is that podcasting changes constantly. Revenue goes up and down, episodes get recommended one day, and then disappear the next. Building a community of members means we can keep producing independent coverage without entirely depending on a podcasting algorithm. And on top of all this, a lot of the analysis that we have put out from the front lines with veterans like Chuck Far, well, we just cannot show that kind of stuff publicly because advertisers would be mad and then platforms would be mad at our show. Platforms don't warn people talking about how this war is exactly being fought on the front lines in the smallest step. But in reality, this is exactly what's happening in Ukraine and in other places around the world. So if you would like in-depth analysis while helping us continue the work, you can click the first link in the show description to sign up. Or you can head over to basicsinsider.com. We would love to have you. Now let's talk about the reason why Putin does not want Russians to believe that a mobilization is coming. You see, if Russians believe a draft is coming, they will act. They make preparations ahead of time, or maybe some of them will just leave the country. And that's something Putin does not want Russians doing, because if that happens before he mobilizes, then his recruitment pool shrinks, which again might be a problem, but it's not going to be a major problem. The major problem is that Russia already has a labor shortage, and this is something we have covered in previous videos. Russia's unemployment rate is at 2%, which sounds like a good thing because it's so low, but in reality it's actually not. Unemployment rate being that low basically hints at a labor shortage, and there's simply nobody left to hire, and that's why the rate is so low. Now we know how it happened, when Putin started this war, a lot of Russians left. Then he sent a bunch more Russians to the front lines, and then on top of that, when he announced the partial mobilization in October of 2022, we had nearly a million Russians just flee the country because they did not want to get drafted. That exodus created a shortage that Russia is still dealing with to this very day, so if enough people leave again, and Putin mobilizes, he creates a problem that Russia will be paying for a very, very long time. It may actually collapse its economy. In the last video we talked about how this is something current mayor of Moscow is actually publicly talking about. Now we actually have fresh evidence of how bad this labor shortage already is, because guess who just started arriving in Russia? North Korean workers, take a look at this report. Here we have video evidence of North Korean female brigades being sent into Russia through outsourcing companies. The workers are being placed on assembly lines, in kitchens, wherever they are needed. And the advertised wages started 480 rubles an hour, that's roughly $6. And of course, since they are from North Korea, their movement is reportedly tightly restricted, and they remain under strict supervision at all times. If you guys have been following this work carefully, you know that Russia has run this exact formula before. Last time they had a labor shortage around 2014, they also needed soldiers for course. So guess what they did? They got them both from North Korea. They got soldiers and they got workers. And Putin is doing the same thing again. It's not just the workers who are coming in, we also have proof of North Korean soldiers already inside of Russia. Here in this clip you can see North Korean soldiers training somewhere inside of Russia, and on top of that we have a statement from President Zelensky, who announced that North Koreans are sending roughly 30 to 50,000 soldiers to take part in this war. That means these North Koreans are studying this war. They are learning how to manage escalation, how modern drone warfare actually works, all of it. And I'm sure South Korea is not happy about this. Japan is probably not happy about this, and all other American allies are not happy about this. Now for Putin, this helps solve a little bit of his problem on the front lines, but unfortunately that's not the only problem he's facing. He has a soldier problem back at home too, because all these soldiers, they're coming back, but they're coming back different. Russian veterans returning from this war are showing up very aggressive, and ordinary Russians aren't exactly thrilled. thrilled about their so-called service. Because remember, a lot of these people went to war to become millionaires. Monuses in Russia are just mind-boggling. Even in US dollar terms, some of these people are making $100,000 in bonuses, just for signing a contract. And in Russia, that's just different kind of money. But when they come back, if they come back, they're acting very different. And Russians are not happy about this. Take a look at this clip. - What's your problem, you bald sucker? Sit the fuck down and keep quiet for fuck's sake, eh? Before I give you a fucking hiding, you little bitch, are you fucking mental, yeah? Go on, tell me you're fighting for my sake. You b-- I'm fighting. For me, not for you, you're fighting for yourself, you fucking c-- for the fucking money. What fucking money? Fucking fuck. Did you come from the Nick or where did you come from? Volunteer, did you? I was mobilized for fuck's sake. You went for the cash. You fucking-- don't you fuck with me? I'm mobilized. I'm telling you for the last time you don't-- you get me? I'm not your mate. I'm not your bro or anyone to you for fuck's sake. Don't you fucking talk to me like that. - Now, I would not say this is becoming a major problem that you see all over Russia, but it is a problem nonetheless. And think about what happens in the future. If this war ends anytime soon, millions of Russian soldiers are going to come back home. A lot of them are probably going to be aggressive, carrying some kind of psychological damage, dealing with drones and all the other stuff that goes on in a war. Nobody in Russia seems to have a plan for that. Now, publicly Putin pretends that he cares, but we know he truly doesn't care. Just take a listen to what he just said about mental health of these soldiers. - No, do it. - It is one thing to talk about it and quite another to be on the front line with bullets whizzing overhead and drones falling and flying around like flies, making it impossible even to raise your head. We simply have to proceed from the reality on the ground. And the reality is this, they, Russian forces, are not just fighting, they are advancing every day. The issue is not what we call it, but how we implement the idea you mentioned. We need to make sure that those returning from the combat zone have access to psychological rehabilitation and opportunities to learn a new profession. And that nothing from our history, our recent history, the history of today, is ever forgotten. Now, I wanna show you one more measurement of how badly this war is truly going for Putin. Just a few years ago, he said that other countries, more specifically pro-Ukrainian countries, were trying to isolate Russia, but it wasn't really working. Take a listen, and then I'll show you how it backfired. The goals that our ill-wishers set for themselves in terms of limiting Russia, in terms of isolating it, well, it's clear that everything fell apart. Well, that's already clear, that's obvious. But what is also clear is that we are gaining more and more supporters all over the world. Now take a look at how many foreign trips Putin has actually taken. In January, Putin could not go anywhere. Nothing in February, March, April, then in May he goes to China in Kazakhstan, to the light on Russian border, and then June, July, nothing. I doubt he's gonna go anywhere in August either. That's what isolation truly looks like, because let's be honest, fast majority of the world does not support Putin's aggressive actions. And also, let's not forget, he's the first sitting president in the history of the world, who has an international arrest warrant hanging over his head. So there are a lot of countries he cannot actually go to. In fact, there are a lot of first on that resume that Putin does not want people knowing about. And while Putin sits at home, Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia have continued, including a strike on a refinery that bank rolls Putin's oil companies. Ukraine just hit this Niskam oil refinery, the fifth largest in the country. This facility sits roughly 2,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, that's around 1300 miles deep. And this is a very important refinery. It provides roughly 40% of the income for this company called Taffnaft, which is Russia's fifth largest oil company. So clearly, a big supplier to money that Putin very desperately needs. And on top of that, this refinery produces a lot of raw materials that Russia's defense industry uses for its own production. Now, we actually have a clip of Russians reacting to the strikes 'cause I'm guessing then I used to drones flying in 2,000 kilometers deep. So take a look. (upbeat music) (tires screeching) (tires screeching) (tires screeching) (tires screeching) (speaking Russian) (speaking Russian) (tires screeching) (tires screeching) (tires screeching) (tires screeching) (tires screeching) Now let's zoom out a bit and take a look at the total damage that Ukraine has done in last few months. A new report says that since April, Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have caused Russia roughly 1.2 trillion rubles. That's around $14 billion and important to point out this report is coming from Russia's own finance ministry. So you have to assume that it's roughly accurate. Maybe it's not bad enough. Maybe they're hiding the truth. Maybe the true damage is more than what they're saying. In July alone, Russian Treasury transferred roughly two billion dollars to oil companies because of the mechanism and reverse taxes they had. They had to spend another $4 billion in June, another four in May and of course another four before that. In total, from April to July, Russian oil companies have received 1.2 trillion rubles from the federal budget, an amount comparable to Moscow region's annual budget. According to analysts, these payouts are linked to disruptions in Russia's oil refining sector. In July, at least 18 refineries were head by drone strikes and eight of them were forced to halt production. Of the dozen refineries struck, at least seven remained idle as of late July, while another 11 had resumed operations only at partial capacity, ranging from 30 to 70%. Now, a lot of numbers basically saying that Russian refineries are suffering, either they're not operating at all after a drone strike or even if they are operating, it's not at full capacity. And that's causing a lot of headache for Russian people. Who won gasoline, but they have to line up for hours before they actually get to pump gasoline in their car. And remember, this is happening light before an election that's coming up in September. Now, I'm not saying that Putin is gonna lose this election, but that doesn't mean he cannot be surprised by it. So hopefully, there's some kind of shock that Kremlin has to deal with. But for now, let's take a look at how Russians are reacting to this fuel shortage. - Sochi, are we going to discuss the fact that it's almost one in the morning and I'm standing here? And a bunch of other people are queuing for the petrol station? I got here at 11 o'clock. And that's it. Everything came to a standstill. Actually, at a time like this, let me tell you, there's a demographic crisis in Russia. We should all be making babies on a Saturday night. How the fuck are we standing here waiting for petrol? I went to one petrol station. We've got those passes there, yeah? The second petrol station, well, I won't even mention the queue there. To Ross Neft, it goes all the way to where? Well, this is a total joke. - And of course, we also have Russian papers and Russian media covering all this and talking about what solutions they have. One of the solutions is basically making gasoline worse quality. So I'm guessing they're mixing it with something? Probably not water, I don't really know. But whatever they're mixing it with, it's creating a huge problem for Russian cars. Take a look at this report. - Now this summer, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries sparked a fuel shortage in many parts of Russia. The front page of this morning's muskovsky come some more. It's highlights one of the consequences of that. Petrol stations in Russia now permitted to sell fuel without dated admission standards. The paper calls this anti-crisis petrol. That includes Euro 2 fuel, banned in Russia in 2013, and which contains 50 times more sulfur than modern petrol. The Russian government paper, the Siska Gheze, also features the story. The government has allowed the production and sale of petrol with lower admission standards. That's Euro 2, Euro 3, and Euro 4. Until the 1st of July, 2027, the Ministry of Energy called this an anti-crisis measure, noting that it will prevent a shortage of petrol at a time of changing logistics chains and technological restrictions. As you can see, no mention here of the drone attacks causing this. The government paper assures readers there's nothing to worry about. Well, so long as you don't have a new car. For older vehicles, it shouldn't be a problem. Many of them were intended to run on petrol of lower admission standards. The modern cars, the risks are greater. regular use of lower grade petrol can increase the pressure on the fuel injector, spark plugs, oxygen sensors, the catalytic converter and soot filter. The effect probably won't be instant but gradual. Euro 2 won't kill a working engine after one fueling, but it sharply reduces the margin of safety. By the way, according to the paper, the average age of a car on Russian roads is 15.5 years. Staying with fuel this time for aircraft and his Vistia reports that to increase the production of jet fuel in Russia, it has been proposed that the technical requirements for quality be adjusted. In particular, this is about permitting the production of fuel with less stringent requirements regarding the freezing point. Some air carriers have already drawn attention to problems with the provision. Recently, we've been bombarded with negative reviews from Russian bots. 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