Soft Jobs Report and the Dollar's New Direction: What It Means for Investors
44m 9s
In this Invest Talk episode, host Justin Klein reviewed a mixed market day to close the week, noting that while major indices declined, small caps continued to outperform large caps, a trend he highlighted as ongoing. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year nearing 5%, which he identified as a significant medium-term risk. The dollar weakened, gold and silver gained, Bitcoin fell, and oil rose. The main focus was the soft jobs report, which showed only 23,000 jobs added last month, the slowest in over a year, though private hiring was stronger and layoffs remained low. Klein argued the economy isn’t showing real stress, citing robust consumer spending and steady financial sector performance. He answered several stock questions: he advised avoiding Glimpse Group due to its penny-stock status and cash burn, passed on FreightCar America over debt and weak technicals, liked Veralto’s business but wanted better chart signals, and saw VF Corp as a potential long-term buy despite its debt. He also addressed a caller’s question about beating the market, explaining that while it’s challenging, a disciplined process—like using macro quadrants—can help investors rotate sectors while keeping core holdings. Other topics included housing market trends, El Niño’s potential economic effects, and the dollar’s direction. Klein encouraged listeners to call with questions and emphasized a data-driven, balanced approach to investing.
This is Invest Talk from KPP Financial. Helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host Justin Klein. Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to Invest Talk. This is our Friday, August 14th, 2026 edition of Invest Talk. It is a top, it's hot out here. And that's hot here in LeCou de B. Hopefully everyone's staying cool. And the markets hot as well continues to power ahead despite the headlines, although today was not exactly an amazing day, but we close the week. Okay, we've limped into the week and show we say, but we'll look at those numbers and the headlines much later in the show. But I want to set the table here and invite you, to give me a call, whatever's on your mind, money related. We are here to help you navigate these challenging times. By answering your finance and investment questions, bringing you data, bringing you perspective. I've been doing this for over 25 years. And I've seen it all. So I'm here for whatever question you throw at me. Nothing's too simple, nothing's too complex. So I encourage you to reach out. As always, 8 to 899, the chart is the number. Now, just a bit. We'll talk about today's Mark performance and run down the show topics throughout the hour. But as usual, we'll tackle this first colleague question now. Listener, cheer podcast. I'm a very small time investment type of person. I do have a 401K. It's pretty healthy. But on the side, I try to do a little bit of my own. And I came across glimpse group, Stuckticker symbol, G-G-R-P. What are your thoughts on that, especially since it's an AI type of company? Thank you. All right. This is glimpse group. It's trading for less than a dollar per share. So the first thing you have to say is, why is it trading for a dollar per share? Why is it a penny stock? Hard to find penny stock. When I was in my younger days, there were penny stocks all over, under $5. But now you either are lifted up or you're out. And this is a name that has negative $3.6 million and free cash flow. Its market cap is about 19 million. So this is not a small cap. This is a micro cap. They do have cash in their balance sheet. That's the positive. They don't have a ton of debt. But if you're burning cash, they're about to burn through that cash in about a year from where they're at now. What are they doing? They're probably issuing shares, let's see. Yeah, the shares continue to go up and to the right. Now the positive would be earnings expectations for this year and next year are zero. Now I don't know if that's because there's not an estimate or because it's going to be break even. My guess is there's not really an estimate for a name this low. For a name this small, excuse me. But they've always lost money. So this is all a story stock. This is not an investment. And it may be around, it looks like they deal with virtual reality, augmented reality, spatial computing software, services, et cetera. That all sounds great. But last quarter, revenue is now 54%. So where's the growth here? You want to stay far, far away. You're a new investor, or a new listener to the show. And while the technicals on this, the short term look OK. Actually look pretty good. So if you want it, it says like a trade maybe. But this is not a long term investment because they have not shown any ability to sustain growth, profitability, et cetera, into the future. Now yesterday, Luke talked about the US housing market, how homes selling below asking price in 38 major cities. So homes are selling below asking price in 38 major cities. So we unpacked that story, 38 of the 50 biggest US cities. And we answered-- he answered questions about pulse biosciences. And if you happen to miss it, go check it out. That's what it gets every show. It's the fall and best talk wherever you get your podcast. Now, we have a lot of ground to cover. Over the next 45 minutes or so in time permitting. We'll get to all of it. And our main focus point today concerns the story. Soft jobs report in the dollar's new direction, what it means for investors. A week has an expected US jobs report sent the dollar sliding and pushing and pushed back market expectations for the reserve rate hikes. So we'll explore this data, what it means for different asset classes in the broader economy. We have other topics on the docket as well. I think this is a good one. How much money does it take to be happy? Does money buy happiness? I think we all can agree it does to a point, but what point is that? We'll take that into that a little bit more. And then El Nino is here. What impact could that have on the broader economy? So we look at that. We also have voice bank questions. One is on market rotation and Otis worldwide, Otis. And also have some questions that came in. Be the comment section on the Invest Talk YouTube channel as well. But we're ready for your calls. We're going to go to a quick break, who's going to call anytime and leave your question on the Invest Talk voice bank. And if you're listening to our live stream or possibly an AM-1220 in the Bay area, you can call right now at 88899 chart. Up next comment on today's market activity. [MUSIC] In the early days, Invest Talk was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley. Now the torch has been passed and a new generation of hosts is on the job. Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero. So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call Invest Talk. 88899 chart. [MUSIC] Let's go take a look at the market today. It was a down days. We closed the week. You had the Dow down 20 basis points, S&P, a little bit better than that, 17 basis points. Nasdaq down a little more than a quarter percent. But the Russell 2000 continuation of what I've been saying, money is flowing out of the large caps into the mid and small caps. So seeing that today, S&P, the Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P by about two thirds of 1%. Now that's in one day, it's not that crazy. But clearly, this trend is not stopping. You had treasuries were a bit weaker across the curve with yields up to the four basis points. So you continue to see the long end of the curve blow out. This is an issue. This is one of the biggest risk the markets in the medium term. Now when does the market care about it? It's anyone's guess. But the 10 year, what are we getting up to? We're approaching 5%. That will be an issue. I'll find it a little bit later. But my point is yields continue to go up. The dollar next down 0.3% on the day despite yield tire, gold finished up 0.4%, silver up 0.2, Bitcoin down 0.8 continuation, what I've been saying, gold and silver, harder assets outperforming. These softer assets like Bitcoin, crude is up 1.4% in choppy trading. You had a kind of a mixed bag in the tech space, names like AMD up 6.5%, micron up 2.3. Across the next seven, it was pretty neutral. Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Barely Budged, Tesla up 68 basis points, meta down 86 basis points. So decent drop there, Amazon down about 1% the biggest mover in the next seven. But you did have some nice gains in energy space, but oil up as you expect is in the finance space. And this is something you have to pay attention to. You have to recognize, shall we say, is that financials are still doing OK? Despite higher interest rates, despite a labor market, we'll talk about in a little bit relatively weak. Financials are not screaming anything, usually when the economy's rolling over, financials are telling you, right now that's not happening. So something to continue to watch. Healthcare did fairly well today, kind of a mixed bag as we closed the weekend, and we head into OPEX week next week. What else do we get? We had CPI increased 0.2%, that was earlier in the week. That was kind of the big news this week, just to kind of sum up the week. But Fridays, usually not a lot of economic news, but not shocking to see kind of a choppy mixed market today. Oh yeah, 10 year, 4.69%. I think maybe when it gets to 5%, that's when problems are asked. Now from time to time, we receive questions via web form from investtalk.com. Here's what I came in earlier. Alex from Texas says, "Howdy is Alex from Texas?" And my question is regarding, it's Dr. Dr. Care Rale, R-A-I-L. I've recently bought a small position in it, just to keep an eye on it, and I'd like your opinion on it, is it worth adding to, thank y'all, invaluable service. Interesting, freight car of a man.
America, aren't they? L, small name, $243 million market cap. Earnings are improving pretty dramatically. They were losing money pre-COVID. They lost $5.19, lost money throughout COVID. But then, but it started to improve. I'm actually turned a profit for the first time in 2024, a $0.15 to share, $0.50 to share last year, $0.41 to share, expected this year. So a little bit of drop. But then earnings are expected to go to $1.06 next year. So based on that $1.06, if that actually comes to fruition, I think that would be a cheap stock, because it's trading at $7.32. So look at its balance sheet. I want to see that. After years of burning capital, are they too levered? They do have a decent amount of debt, nearly $100 million in that debt on a $239 million market cap. That's a bit-- that's kind of high for me. Now they have-- started to pay that down recently. Their free cash flow is about $19 million. That's about a 10% free cash flow yield, pretty good. No dividend. Are they buying that shares? Ooh, there's just a bunch of new shares. Going like that. But from $19 million shares, that's standing at $32. Now, was that an acquisition? I wonder that. That would be a big question for me. Now, it looks cheap based on that forward-looking earning earnings number of $1.06. Problem is, is that cash flow situation-- or sorry, the debt situation, the number of shares outstanding that they just issued. Trying to look at the chart. It's being slow for me. But overall, the chart looks like it's losing momentum. It's such a small name. It's kind of wishy-washy. The technicals are met, especially after the recent drop in March. It's at a high of about 14. And how it's down to seven. So it's down 50% since that high. And it doesn't seem like it wants to get off the map. So I'm going to pass on it. It's too small. I don't like the balance sheet. And despite what it looks like cheap forward-looking earnings, technicals are not lining up. Now, let's go ahead and ask one quick question now. Hey, guys. Kyle from Texas here. Call it about. We're also BLTO. I like the space there in. Let me know what you guys think. Thank you. BLTO, Veralto, $24 billion market cap. What do they do? Go up water treatment products, proprietary precision instrumentation, software, printing, packaging. OK. What I like about it is earnings-- since probably 2019, maybe they weren't public. I'm not sure. Yeah, they weren't exactly public. So their first earnings report was $20. That was $2.99. And they pretty much have increased earnings, consistently a little dip in $22 and $23, but then powered back higher the last couple of years. So it's to make an all-time higher earnings of $4.77. So I like these industrial type names. Let me look at its balance sheets. A little bit of dividend. That's fine. Good balance sheet. Return to equity 33%. Free cash flow to $1 billion on a $23 billion market. Up about 4% free cash flow yield. Look at this chart. Hmm. That chart is not exciting. It's not terrible. But it's not exciting. But I do like the business. I just need those technicals to firm up a little bit. If it can, if it can get back above 100, I would probably be the buyer, because Ben, I think, the technicals would have repaired. And it'd be worth it by. We're getting there now. It's right up against resistance. There are 21st 7 Invest Talk Voice Bank never closes, so you can leave your finance and investment question anytime on $88.99. And the work continues after this break. [MUSIC PLAYING] The weekend is here or almost here, but you've got finance and investment questions. So step up and call in. Invest talk $88.99. Chart. [MUSIC PLAYING] Hello, I'm this talk. This is Janik from Denmark. I have a question about long-term holds versus taking profits or calling your losses, rotating your money around as the stock market evolves. Because if I look back for five years, I mean, I haven't beat the market. My question is, when you arrived that you should follow the rotations of the market, it means that you have to buy and sell frequently, doesn't it? But what kind of stocks do you hold for a really long term? Five, 10 years. If you keep following the rotations of the market, can you still hold some stocks like regardless of what happens? That's the enigma I'm puzzling with, because I'm considering just going into index ones, because I can see, I manage my girlfriend's pension account that really it's really hot to beat the market, isn't it? So do you have any advice on that? A big, very last. Thank you very much. Please don't take Greenland, OK? Bye-bye. Thanks. Well, thank you for the call. Now, the first-- the answer to your question basically is it is challenging to beat the market. But it's not definitely not impossible. But you have to have a process. That's the issue. That's the problem most average investors struggle with. Is that markets rotate? Certain companies overweight and underweight-- sorry, outperform and underperform in different market regimes. And they don't have any way to identify those market regimes. What do you in? What should-- what sector should you overweight and underweight? But also, it's about having exposure to every sector at any given time. You should. You should pretty much have exposure to every sector at any given time. Now, it might be a small percentage. It might be underweight. It might be one name. But ideally, it's the best of breed within that particular sector. And so it allows you core holdings in every sector, because you're always holding some. You might go into a recessionary environment where you normally just hold the one utility unit. But now, because you want protection, money is flowing into utilities, and you want to add a couple more. And that's a lesson I've been talking about for the last couple of weeks, which is-- when money flows out of one sector, it usually flows into another. Money was flying out of health care earlier in the year and in the tech, and then that actually started to reverse. So it's about having a process to identify that. What we use is-- it's actually pioneered by Radalio, which is the grid. The quadrant setup, which is what's going on with growth in the economy. Is it accelerating, decelerating? What's going on with inflation? Is accelerating, or decelerating? And based on that, you're in different quadrants, and that means certain asset classes, or in sectors, tend to outperform. So we do. It's not that complicated. It does take some work. It does take some monitoring. It does take some tools. But that's the macro analysis. Then we use our ability to find the best opportunities in the sector to hold those names that are likely to outperform because of the quality of their business, valuation, growth, leadership, et cetera. So you should always have those core holdings, but you can trim and rotate your portfolio based on the macro setup. Let's keep things moving and dropping another fresh listener question now. Stay from Ohio. I really appreciate the program. I'm calling in about VF Corp. The symbol is VFC. You've talked about it many times in the past. There's thoughts about it. And if I should invest some more money into the stock, be looking forward for your answer. Looking at VF Corp. This is the lifestyle brand that owns-- they own Vans, they own Jan Sport, they own-- what are all their brands? Yeah. Vans, North Face, Timberlin, Jan Sport, SmartWall, EastPak, et cetera. So good brands. Problem is their business has been struggling for some time. Earnings were 2, 10, and 2022. They took on a lot of debt, earnings decline. But it's on the rise once again. Expect to be up 30% this year, 24% next year, so $2.35. If they can achieve that, it's cheap. But they do have a lot of debt. The $6 billion market cap, about $4 billion in debt. And so that $600 million in free cash flow is going towards right sizing their balance sheet.
So I think over the short term, that's a challenge because I would like them to be buying back stock instead of paying down debt. And then a good job of paying down the debt, going from a high of 7.8 million shares outstanding, or sorry, billion dollars in debt now to 4.6. So I think you're getting there. The technicals are still pretty poor, but if you have a long term viewpoint, that are at long term hold mentality, I think it would be a good buy at this level. The next invest stock, we look into the story, global shipping, under siege, how horror moves, the black scene, the red scene, threatened to hit your investments. That story is from Monday, but for now, Ray Zakier calls it 88899 sharp. At KPP Financial, accountability means more than advice. It means we invest alongside you. Through our parallel investing approach, when we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles, invest their own capital at the same time. Same day, same price, same percentage. If your portfolio moves, ours does too. That is alignment. That is transparency. That is the KPP difference. Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review. It's official. Total lifetime downloads for the invest talk podcast are now more than 63 million. Justin Klein is here now taking your calls live. Invest talk, 88899 sharp. Let's go talk about our main focus point on the day, and that is the soft labor reports. Let's review that and what that might mean for the broader policy, the broader market, and the broader economy. Employers added jobs last month, the slowest pace in over a year. Only 23,000, actually, there was down 23,000 jobs. The average now for the first three, last three months is at 20,000 jobs a month. That sounds very low, and it is. But private employers have added about 30,000 jobs in July. Much better than the headline decline. That means that a lot of the decline in jobs was from government cutting, local workforce, education, etc. The big draw, drawdown, it was the local government education layouts. Labor force participation slept to 61.4. Fewer people entered or remained in the workforce. The unemployment rate didn't really drop overall. Employers are still adding to construction jobs, healthcare, manufacturing, but leisure hospitality, government retail trade, and financial activities were cut. It kind of mixed back there. But consumer spending, which is two thirds of the economy, remains fairly robust. Johnson's Red Book Weekly Same-Saw Sales was 8.7 year-over-year. 8.7% year-over-year increase, ending August 1st. So that's pretty up-to-date data. And Pfizer's point of sale measures, that was up 7% year-over-year in July. Average hourly earnings of 3.2%, that is less than the CPI 3.5. So real incomes remain in negative territory. But that's not stopping people from spending mainly because the wealth effects as the prices are up. So despite hiring cooling a little bit, layoffs are still relatively low. The Jolt's data is okay, job openings are okay, quits are relatively steady. And employers are hiring still selectively. And if you go look at the Challenger Gray report, there's only about 333,000 planned job cuts in July. That's down 27% from June and 46% from July of last year. And it can house hirings are increasing from a year earlier as well. So while the headline number looks bad, it doesn't, it isn't translating to real stress in the economy. As I said earlier, financials, and especially the banks, they continue to do fairly well. Financials are near the high of the year. A big part of it is long-term rates, while bad, there should be bad at some point for asset price prices like real estate and inequities. It's good for bank lending. And if you go look at the year of year change in bank lending, it's about 6.2% from commercial banks, which is good. Solid, now it's flat over the past six months or so. But it's not rolling over in a material way. And a steeper yield curve means more dollars into the system. It usually means a weaker dollar, and that's part of this as well. A weaker dollar will make our goods more competitive. It loosens financial conditions overall. And it puts less pressure on the Fed to high rates. And that's why you continue to see the odds of a rate hike come out of the long end of the curve. Now, still about two hikes expected between now and October of next year. But frankly, I don't see it. I think that this governor wash, a one-worsh by being less communicative, which is what he said. We're going to get less forward guidance. We're going to allow the market to do its thing. That's one of the reasons why the long end of the curve continues to go up. He is actually probably going to push for a pause until there is reason to cut rates. I don't think he's actually going to have a great. I think he's going to maybe unwind the balance sheet a little bit. He's going to allow the market to do the tightening for him by letting the long end of the curve go up. So to me, this is bearish for the dollar, because once again, it gives more excuses for the Fed to remain on hold. Does it mean that the economy is rolling over? The economic data beyond this is not telling you that. And neither are the sectors in the economy or in the market. Usually, there's a signal. You get the industrials. You get the transportation stocks. You get the financials rolling over. That's not happening. And with an 8% deficit, the GDP ratio, fiscal, we are in fiscal dominance. And that's why you continue to see, despite the issues with what's gone in Middle East and higher oil prices, government spending that is being enabled by the bond market that's still relatively functional. That is driving nominal economic growth. That's higher earnings expectations, because there's a correlation between economic growth, nominal GDP growth, and earnings. So that is the summation of where we are in the economy, as we head into the close to the end of the summer. We're about a month away, month left of summer. Our main focus point today concerns the story. Soft jobs are bought in the dollar's new direction, what it means for investors. A week, a weeker than expected. Actually, excuse me. It's like what the newsletter. I got confused here. Newsletter. Today, this week, we're going to look at forward guidance. That's what we're going to discuss in the KPP Insight section. In the stock section, we mentioned a diversified industrial company. In the portfolio management section, we discussed what an all-time high really means for investors, what it tells investors. In the consumer watch section, we look at what a 4% savings rate really looks like after taxes and inflation. And if you're interested in learning more, visit us at besttalk.com. And subscribe, and the newsletter will come to your inbox every Saturday. Now, I'm sitting back in the best talk, 24/7 voice bank. This question came in this morning on 8-8/9/9 chart. Hi, Justin and Luke. I am calling with a question pertaining to that Otis. We inherited some Otis stock several years ago back in 2017. And just trying to see if we should continue to hold it. Or at this point, the investor solves of it. It's been up and down, but generally flat. And although it's a reasonable dividend, it's not compelling enough for us to continue to hold on to it less or some upside. So I'm going to get your thoughts on that. You would respond to this question on your show. That would be great. And we'll listen actively. Like. Looking at Otis world. Why this one, the largest producers of elevators and escalators. Mainly in malls, office buildings, etc. One of the issues. I think of the late is that construction spending is up overall. But that's mainly because. It's going to data centers, not commercial buildings, not new retail outlets. How many escalators and elevators think there are in a data center? Probably not very many. And if there are, they're not used very often because the big part of their business is services servicing these elevators and escalators.
Now it's still a good business. The term of best of capital is 57. Sorry, 51, which is a very good number. Free cash flow is 1.7 billion. Look at its trend. Near and all the time, hi. That's a good thing. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the dividend. It's good. But that's not really what they're doing with their cash flow. Imagine they're probably buying back shares. Let me pull this up here. They've been decent amount of debt about $9 billion in debt and $27 billion in market up. That's fine. But they've been buying back shares pretty aggressively since 2020. $433 million shares that's standing back then. The end of that 2020. Now at $388 million. So nice, consistent, reinvesting or buying back the shares from that cash flow. I like that. I like the business overall. What I don't like is the stock trend. I don't like the earnings expectations. Only 1% increase this year, 12% increase next year. But those estimates continue to come down. So it's a very slow growth business in this environment. Last quarter, earnings were down 4% year over year. So I think it's cheap. I will say that. I'd have to look at the rest of your portfolio. I think it's a good business. I don't expect it to turn around because in short term, because the technicals are relatively poor. But it is cheap and it's still a good business. But I want to see kind of a whole picture. And what percentage of your total liquid assets this is. I'd want this to be less than 5%. Of your liquid assets. So the bare minimums, you probably want to get it down to that level. And maybe even lower. But that depends on your total exposure within the industrial space. Now, in five days, you're going to make time to fit in a quick rundown. There's some key benchmarks. The two-year treasury yield. 4.16. Last week was at 4.2. So down just the tad. So the market pulling out some odds of rate high. Between now and your end 10-year treasury yield. 4.69% last week was 4.65. You see that yield curve steepening. Steepening. Falling on the short end. Rising on the long end. Good for banks. Good for economic growth. Bad for market multiples generally. Gold is priced at 43.74. Up $20 from last week. Silver. 64.68. And ounce up $1.3. From last week. Oil. 82.42. A barrel. That's a $4.11 increase from last week. Obviously, continued. Middle East. Tensions. Will. Are driving prices higher. And I think that will probably sustain. Probably sustain, as I've said, for a number of months now. Through the midterms. Gasoline prices $4.07. 3.00 increase from last week. Here in California. In 5.57. A gallon. But down 3 cents from last week. Out in Florida. It's probably pretty human out there. But prices for gas are much lower $3.92. A gallon. Let's go answer another voicemail question now. Hello. Good day. Luke and Justin. Long time, listener here from the Midwest. Love the show. Thank you guys for everything you do. I have a question here. I'd like your advice on please. Trying to complete out another holding for my healthcare side of my portfolio. And I'm looking at J&J Johnson and Johnson. I'm looking at AZN AstraZeneca, which I know you guys speak highly of. And I wasn't sure which of those. I guess to make up my mind about her which one you thought might be better. But then I came across VHT, ETF fund that holds all healthcare stocks and different companies. I was wondering your advice on this. Would that be my best choice to select? That ETF has been going up very nicely. Pays a little dividend. But it has all the stocks I mentioned in its holdings. I was wondering if that might be the best choice to me to make. And I wouldn't have to worry about it. And I'd hold a lot of the medical sector and be good to go. I'll be listening on the show for your advice. Thank you very much. Have a good day. Are you looking at VHT? And if you want broad-based exposure, this is fine. You're going to pay only, it's a nine basis point. So pretty low expense ratio. 423 different names in here. But you're heavily weighted towards Eli Lilly. That's 14% of the portfolio. But then Johnson and Johnson is right around nine. Add to around six and a half. You're not in health around five and a half. Let's see. When do we get to AstraZeneca? It kind of depends on what you want. Do you want just simple exposure? This is a good way to get it. If you really like a particular name, like we really like AstraZeneca. It's business, it's growth, it's valuation, it's profitability, etc. So why we own it? We also like the foreign exposure. But that brings more individual risk. So I think it also depends on what percentage of your portfolio you're trying to get in health care. If it's 8, 10% something like that. That's when you probably want something that's broad-based exposure. I suppose to one name like an AstraZeneca or even a Johnson and Johnson. So I think for you, probably the simple answer is just by VHT. That was an best talk. I'm Justin Klein. We have one goal here. Each and every week days help you achieve your own version of financial freedom. When our work continues after this final break, sketch questions in right now at 8.89 sharp. Got a question for Justin or Luke? I've heard you say multiple times that you prefer a shorter duration treasury bond. You're the best person to ask is Can you explain to me why it is more advisable? The symbol is you and I T. Wondering what you thought about this rate if it would be a good time to get in? Invest talk is ready 24/7. So I was thinking, is it a good idea to sell your losses in a Roth IRA and just use whatever you have left to reinvest with the better stocks? I just wanted to ask you about one stock that I'm looking at, Enter G E T R. If you could run that down for me. Don't forget to call, Invest Talk, 888-99 sharp. There are a few things that make KPP financial special. One of them is parallel investing. That means they invest right alongside their clients. Here's how it works. When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, Justin Klein makes the same trade for himself and KPP. On the same day, at the same price and same percentage. No front running, no special treatment. Learn more about parallel investing at investtalk.com. Now for time in time, we received questions submitted via our website. And here's one that came in today. So, could you please analyze Boston scientific BSX is the symbol I would greatly appreciate it. So, despite what our previous call has said that health care stocks had been doing really well, they all aren't because Boston scientific is down considerably, but it's down 52% from its 52-week high. Even though it has bounced recently from below around 43 to around 52 right now. But this is the perfect example of a name where it was growing nicely. Made 96 cents in 2020. And that increased all the way up to $3.06 last year, up 22% earnings growth. But this year, earnings growth is only up sixth or eight in revenue growth up six. And next year, expectation is for earnings growth four as well as revenue growth at four. Whenever you see growth you celebrate dramatically, you get this multiple contractions. So, that's the positive here. This isn't down because of the business struggling and it's just slowing. And I'm okay with that. Now, if I go look at the numbers, $75 billion market cap, it is back to kind of where it broke out in 2023 or in this 50 range. And so, from the technical perspective, this is pretty good. $3.6 billion market cap. Sorry. Free cash flow. $75 billion market cap. And it probably valued even around 13. Let me see what those normally trades. Kind of pre. I mean, that's still, it's actually pretty cheap. All time because what it looks like is despite earnings growth slowing. Free cash flows near and all time high. So, where's the beef here? I actually kind of like this. And for everyone else out there, Boston, Thine, Tifq, they develop manufacturer market cardiology, indiscope, intervention, urology.
Could this be a GLP1 casually? Potentially, right? People losing weight, having less heart attacks, heart issues, etc. That's certainly possible, but that is not reflecting in the cash flow of the business still very good. So I kind of like it. Let me give Boston scientific thumbs up. Let's talk about how much money you need to make you happy. Now it's going to form your investment choices. So there's going to be an advantage about rolling a dice. If you roll a dice, whatever the number comes up, you'll earn that amount of dollars. Now if you do that over a long period of time, the average amount you'll get is $3.50 per roll. It's just simple. Math. You do that 10,000 times. You could pay $3 every time you roll. You do it 10,000 times. You're almost guaranteed to come out ahead by about $5,000 because of the law of large numbers. But if you do that once, let's say you pay through $30,000 and whatever number you get, you get that times 10,000, well, maybe you're not going to make that roll because you could just roll it, roll a one or a two, and now you're out, $10,000 or $20,000. And though the expected return on that roll is $5,000. So that is something that can inform your ability to take risks. And it also tells you a lot about the marginal gain from every dollar you make, marginal happiness, excuse me, from an additional dollar you make. If you're poor, you get a million dollars. That's life changing. You already have a million dollars, you get another million, that's really nice, but it's not changing your life dramatically. So that's the same thing he said about the investment world. When you're really happy, really happy, it makes more sense to take some risk off the table because making another 10, 15, 20%, that's great. But losing another 30, 40% from a very happy place can be very detrimental to your financial situation as well as your psyche. So, and your happiness. So make sure you're really happy, it's okay to take some chips off the table. Now I'm just inclined to be running you about K-EQ fee financials, pay your loan investing, and make a trade for our clients, make the same trade for ourselves, same day, same price, same percentage, no front running, no special treatment. We invest right alongside our clients, which are the same risk and potential for success. And you can learn more about how to go between invest.com. Please tell your friends and family about a free podcast downloads. If you find any time at iTunes and Spotify and be sure to rate their review on iTunes as well. Independent thinking, shared success. What a week it was. This is Invest Talk. Thank you all for being here. Enjoy your weekend. Invest Talk is a trademark of KPP financial because of the nature of the interacted dialogue inherent in the format of this program. It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to that. But nothing said shall be taken to be investment advice or shall statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security. Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing. Invest Talk is a copyrighted program of client, Pavlos, and Peasley financial, a registered investment advisor firm which retains all rights. For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461. Thank you for listening and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24 hour listener line at 888-99-CHART. [BLANK_AUDIO]
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Markets closed lower on Friday, August 14, 2026, with the Dow down 0.2%, S&P down 0.17%, and Nasdaq down over 0.25%, but small caps (Russell 2000) outperformed large caps.
Treasury yields rose up to 4 basis points, with the 10-year approaching 5%, flagged as a medium-term risk; the dollar fell 0.3%, gold and silver rose, Bitcoin fell, and crude oil gained 1.4%.
A soft jobs report showed only 23,000 jobs added last month, the slowest pace in over a year, but private employers added 30,000 jobs, and layoffs remain low, with consumer spending still robust.
Justin answered listener questions on several stocks
A caller from Denmark asked about beating the market and market rotation; Justin advised having a process (e.g., Ray Dalio’s quadrant framework) and maintaining core holdings across sectors while trimming based on macro conditions.
Other topics mentioned include the housing market (homes selling below asking in 38 major cities), El Niño’s economic impact, and the dollar’s new direction.
Summary:
In this Invest Talk episode, host Justin Klein reviewed a mixed market day to close the week, noting that while major indices declined, small caps continued to outperform large caps, a trend he highlighted as ongoing. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year nearing 5%, which he identified as a significant medium-term risk. The dollar weakened, gold and silver gained, Bitcoin fell, and oil rose.
The main focus was the soft jobs report, which showed only 23,000 jobs added last month, the slowest in over a year, though private hiring was stronger and layoffs remained low. Klein argued the economy isn’t showing real stress, citing robust consumer spending and steady financial sector performance. He answered several stock questions: he advised avoiding Glimpse Group due to its penny-stock status and cash burn, passed on FreightCar America over debt and weak technicals, liked Veralto’s business but wanted better chart signals, and saw VF Corp as a potential long-term buy despite its debt.
He also addressed a caller’s question about beating the market, explaining that while it’s challenging, a disciplined process—like using macro quadrants—can help investors rotate sectors while keeping core holdings. Other topics included housing market trends, El Niño’s potential economic effects, and the dollar’s direction. Klein encouraged listeners to call with questions and emphasized a data-driven, balanced approach to investing.
FAQs
Glimpse Group is a micro-cap AI-related company trading under $1 per share with negative free cash flow and declining revenue. It's a speculative story stock, not a long-term investment, and you should stay away unless you're a short-term trader.
Money can buy happiness up to a point, but the exact amount varies. The show discusses that while wealth effects drive spending, real incomes are negative, suggesting a complex relationship between money and well-being.
El Niño could affect the broader economy by influencing weather patterns, potentially impacting agriculture, energy demand, and inflation. The show highlights it as a topic to watch for its economic implications.
FreightCar America is a small-cap with improving earnings but high debt and recent share issuance. Despite a cheap forward P/E, the technicals are weak, and Justin passes on it due to its small size and balance sheet concerns.
Veralto is a solid industrial company with consistent earnings growth and a good balance sheet. However, the chart is not exciting, and Justin would consider buying if it gets back above $100, as technicals would then be repaired.
Beating the market requires a process to identify market regimes and rotate sectors, while maintaining core holdings in every sector. It's challenging but possible with macro analysis and selecting quality names within sectors.
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