Small Data Problems & Gambling Twitter Actuaries w/ Mr. PeanutBettor | Ep 141

put up an arb to whatever and hope that you're taking Grab and Hood breakfast into it and like nothing there's basically no skill I have people would be like oh you know congrats on your big week and you showed up on the leaderboard it's like I literally did nothing to like that was impressive when winkey didn't know which team the one week you didn't know which team you were on right he was like George yeah I thought I lost 30k 130k what's up everybody gpsp mrpb and something that I invented 100% by myself was this is our third dog episode in a row we had rufus be a beagle that's now we mrpnip better the dog yeah great intro I'm glad that you thought of that by yourself nobody else came up with that you know just speaks to how witty you are as a person exactly exactly yeah yeah no no it's there I think we all agree with that but yeah if you don't know mrpnip better he is the bojack horseman dog on twitter you've kind of now that's like just who you are now it's kind of like calling yourself golden pants and then like that just happens yeah I'm trying to go back yeah I'm trying to almost like walk it back in a sense but it's just kind of it is what it is at this point I feel it's so I'm so stupid to be like oh people know me as peanut butter it's like the dumbest thing in the world to say I love but when someone changes their profile picture like already throws me off enough on twitter like I look at them as a different person almost so now I think I'm kind of just stuck with it at this point right right right yeah I mean Louis Louis changes recently and I just I don't even know who that is anymore well his old one didn't look like him I like I've been I agree with that yeah I was gonna say like I've been with Louis before I wanted to ask him like is that actually you and your profile picture because I don't think it looked anything like him so so besides being known for tweeting in all caps which is I think like the funniest funniest way to tweet it makes everything a lot funnier I you know you bet a lot of college football your own circles back on friday you're on the friday episode yes correct yeah correct giving some good hot takes I love like the best one you did was the pigeon sitting on the chess board I still I've used that in real life now like strutting around I think that one's been repeated at nauseam but yeah we're excited to have you on the show you've asked some really good questions I think you asked like one of the best questions for the the rufus episode and yeah so welcome to the show man and you're an actuary like sp that is that's very important now come to play later it's like it's time to address the elephant in the room sp passing you is the Batman of the show I think that when you get an actuary on a show it's a matter of time until kind of the alpha in the actuary takes over and they kind of become the show lead I think anytime anybody knows things about actuaries it's that it's only a matter of time till they kind of assert their dominance it's so it's so funny because if if people like if they're only exposure to actuaries is the the people they interact with on gambling twitter they have like the worst possible representation of the profession it's like so I don't know I don't mean worst is in like bad necessarily I just mean like non-representative of of the profession like they're yeah they're good accounts you know they're maybe less good accounts but in general like it's just not an accurate depiction of you know my co-workers and the profession I would say so alpha in a show is not necessarily what I would say an actuary generally does so I appreciate the compliment but for anybody don't don't get confused that's that's not like an actuary trait probably so you don't work in like an office full of elves I just can't imagine there's a lot of you know niche podcaster actuaries as well maybe there are maybe there are and I'm just not aware but uh yeah I can't I can't I can't imagine there are all right well should we call you mr puny they say I see this on about the process although I feel like they didn't know so ridiculous so ridiculous having people in real life call me pb or mr puny mr puny you can just go with Mike okay we'll go we'll go with Mike okay Mike we always like to ask how do you get started with a vantage play like what was your first advantage play that you can remember I think this is a pretty interesting question and I was talking about this uh the other day with like a group of betters that it seems to me the people who are you know who dislike the business the most or kind of end up like hating certain parts of the business always are the people who came in from like an advantage playside or a trying to make money side more than the sports side and I say that because like I came in uh basically was betting on a side like for fun a little bit but basically the like start of mine was as a trader so I was working as an actuary um was in between jobs and in between I was reading like oh like yo you can win at sports betting red uh David Allen Miller's book and was like oh well you know I never even thought that a sports trader existed but they were like oh you know these sports traders whatever so I was got interested by it always wanted to work in sports kind of my whole life and then saw the job opening and kind of took it so I think there's kind of like two ways you can come into the industry where you either are coming in from it as seeing a money opportunity or you come in that trying to solve sports and it seems to me the people that kind of like the business the longer on kind of come from the sports angle I don't wonder if you guys agree with that I do I mean I think the people who are always just chasing things like and there's there's aspects that we we talk about a show but if like all you're doing is chasing like wherever the most money is or wherever there's easy money you're gonna end up just out of necessity over time in in places where you don't you don't enjoy it at all right um and so I think there's like a lot of I think I mean to be fair like I think anybody in gambling or most people in gambling if they're in it for long enough become a little like jaded and cynical um but yeah I think I think like longevity it's hard to to like do anything I think for a long time if if there's not aspects of it you enjoy beyond just the money and that that's true in gambling but I think that's true in like any profession I agree with you yeah I mean I think it's a bad like I fight this battle of like the thing I want to do the most is probably like model the underlying sport and the thing that like probably will make me more money isn't that and then like it's it's a push and pull you know like I so basically on days I want to be miserable and hate gambling I'll do the other stuff and then I can model if I want to be happy yeah I sometimes I think look I like I definitely know I would probably better off like per out dollar per hour if I spend it on executing and setting up pipelines and getting more accounts and all that stuff but that's also not I would say like where I'm particularly like skilled I think other people are more organized stuff like that so I just tell myself that oh you know that's not where I'm best so I need to focus on the other areas where I really think if I was being honest with myself like doing the account stuff running a logistics company is probably the most like per dollar return you get but I don't know it's just not kind of where I started or you know how I kind of got into it which was again from the trading side I just I basically wanted to work in sports you know my like entire time growing up was particularly good at math and like the fact that you could kind of blend those two together was just such a happy coincidence for me so yeah that's kind of how I get started I was going to ask do you think that's like one of the best jobs in sports is like a winning sports originator absolutely I my again my favorite part of like your guys is pot over the past I don't know year plus is when Shipper came on was like I just fucking loved this so much because yeah I said they're so like so many people are so negative in this space and there's definitely stuff that sucks like if you've ever had to person like an account holder just like steal your funds or you have to deal with all this stuff but like we get to essentially play what's a game versus win another at a like on sports projecting outcomes and kind of playing a game back and forth for large sums when like every other job in sports is you get paid dollarshit money like have to work crazy hours it's like this is honestly I'm I think it's perhaps other than like you know being a GM or some kind of crazy out there you know job that I would never get like this is such a great I think like opportunity of working in sports and I don't know I just I think that it's so underrated people don't realize like like when you really take a step back and look back we play a game versus one another for large sums of money like that's just that doesn't happen very often and you get to do it while watching NBA and college football I love everything you just said I love it you're so right you're so right yeah it's the it's it's the the meme I continually post of like the the man willing to to stand up with an unpopular opinion saying like as a sports better I like betting but what one thing I did want to ask because you did take a leap that I I don't think a lot of people would take in going from like the actuarial profession to you talked about like you know poor wages and stuff I imagine that was not an upward leap or even a lateral leap for you to go from like the actuarial profession to going into to trading with decorism so walk walk me through like approximately like where were you how many years out of school or whatnot you were and and how you came to that decision was it challenging at all did you face any pushback or anything from like you know family friends or anything like that when you did something like that yeah so I was maybe 26 27 I just got done working I like was switching from one job to another the new job that I was set to work at I would have made probably like I mean I'll just go I would have made like 150k base and then had like sales and stuff on top of it probably was looking a little bit over 200 thousand and instead like was about to start that job and said you know fuck it I'm just gonna go trade sports because it seemed way more fun for $55,000 a year and honestly had no idea that like you could keep betting and like I knew you could bet on the side and probably make some but like when they first started when I first started we had a no betting policy and like I followed it I was like oh you know I'm not supposed to bet on the side at first and like then I figured out everybody was better like nobody actually listened to it but like I was yeah I was say I took a huge step down as far as like you know prestige or salary for me but I don't know I feel like this is something I like I always kind of wanted to be in the job that I actually cared about and as an actuary I really didn't like it's not like I hated my job I would just say I had no passion for it no like enthusiasm whatsoever and well talk to like during the interview process I remember thinking like ah do I want to do it and I asked the guy who was a former CPA if he enjoyed and he's like yeah you know my only regret was I didn't come down here sooner so then I ended up doing it yeah I'm curious why like that seems like there I mean that's that's obviously like a huge leap and that's why I was curious to ask about it but also like why you thought going the trading route was like important and necessary because I would say like from my vantage point the much more common thing is like I'm just going to start betting myself and hopefully like this keeps getting better and bigger and better and bigger until I can leave so like why why was the trading route an intermediate step that you thought was going to be particularly valuable or interesting like I didn't when I first planned it I didn't plan on moving to betting I guess I was just like oh this trading job is open it seems like a job I could like when I talk with the person probably over so a little bit but they were like hey you know you can like advance in the business and make a decent salary like if you're very good at this if you're a very good trader you know you can make a large sum of money you just have to like come in show your good and then do that so like when I first started trading I had no intentions of like being a professional better like they're really even know that people were doing it at like that it was this common I guess I thought that people did it but like it was very rare and in between and it was like syndicates or whatever you know like very like shrouded in mystery but like my initial plan was just to become a trader and be a trader and then being you know supervisor trader like just kind of move up through the company so you were very casually sort of betting like before trading not seriously okay that helps to understand the timing and whatnot because yeah I think that's that's a different path than most so and when you're at deck prism what was like your first kind of gig there what what were you in charge of what were you looking at so so we were primarily a live company um and we did a lot of like other books would outsource their live to us um but we did pregame for a couple places I mean I think I can say it was circuit Colorado and ptech plan attack um and we did their pregame and I so like it was a group full of live traders and I was the pregame trader so like I basically managed everything pregame um you know basically the our entire offering and then uh would like hand it off essentially to the live traders who would then uh you know do the prime the most of our action then uh was live yeah I was gonna say like I was thinking about deck prism I think we actually talked about them on the last episode and it was it feels like do you think like if they launched now like it would have gone a different route with like this big outlet for kind of like live market making yeah I I don't know kind of I think uh you know I don't want to speak to what their like goals would have been but I think that they saw the upside route of starting a business and like hey this is a way to make money you know at a higher level at a bigger exit point then you can make uh you know just betting and obviously if they're betting into pinning and Chris your ceiling is one thing if you are setting markets up on calcium then you're you know ceiling is another thing uh if they started deck prism and just like say they started it and plugged it in as a market maker at calcium I am very confident that they would absolutely print so I think that like if they started it now if probably you know I don't know I can't speak to the larger business things but I would just say I think that they would print money if they were kind of using their stuff to trade uh what calcium lines now it's so funny how much timing can like total random timing can matter so much for these things just just you know this example but also just broader like acquisition whether it's like a frothy market or otherwise like in all sorts of business um but maybe going going back to some of the aspects of you working at deck prism I'm sure you know you said you really had limited betting experience or sort of just casually betting up until working there do you think you would have ever like let's play out an alternate scenario like you're you're working you don't take the job you're working as an actuary do you think you would have ever like come come to this industry taking it more seriously would you be at the same place you are now or was that you know was that was the learning curve there so I'm sure you learned a lot like very fast I'm just curious like how you how you would think about that education and and where it where it got you today yeah after kind of reading the though at what's the name of David Owen Miller spoke no um logic yeah logic a sports betting or whatever after reading that I was pretty hooked on like oh I started to like you know because when you don't you don't know what you don't know when you're first starting right so you don't understand things like oh theoretical hold and like oh you need to be taking that I think that that book is so like instrumental and actually explaining the ecosystem and what's going on that like after I read that I was pretty hooked and I think I would have tried to do it slowly but then you know it's much easier for life to get in the way when it's not your main thing you know so I don't know if I make it to here but I definitely think that if like after kind of understanding oh this is a game that can be beaten I would have tried to get involved at some point yeah yeah it's it would I guess like the second half or like the corollary question is like coming in from well I think actually with this is basically Shipper's question so even though like I put this in the outline I'm not going to give Shipper much credit for this but you know we'll give them some he has two questions one is what are your best Ed Miller Matt David out stories and the second half is something that I definitely want to focus on which is what are the pros and cons of earning your stripes trading at deck prism first being out of rec sports book like like Shipper was so to be honest there's not that many good stories I don't think from like Miller and David out I don't work really with Ed at all and you know David out like the best stories are just basically you know him coming over loud speaker and being like oh I the fuck did you take that bet and I had to explain you know oh shit I took a I remember one time he's like why the fuck God fucking damn it and like just person and then like afterwards he's he's a good guy yeah so he like came over is like hey you know I like so what happened was a quarterback got ruled out I moved the line uh and it got hammered immediately um so we got bet before the quarterback news it got bet again after the quarterback news what I'm guessing now is the person obviously must have known and that's why they made the bet and he's like oh fuck fuck that's not a good bet that's not a good bet and then afterwards he like message me you know trying to be good about he's like hey just so you know like I wasn't mad at you during that any point of that and I was like well it's okay like I took $50,000 in bad bets I'm not saying that it's uh the worst thing in the world that you were upset but it seems pretty obvious that you were upset there you know keep moving I don't want you to like be scared to move lines or whatever he's like so keep keep trying like now looking back it's like no you took two bad bets it's not that big of a deal but like when you're first starting I was so fucking nervous that after that first bet I was like okay well so what did you do you you you overmoved it in this case is that and then you sort of set up a middle is that yes it's like I they had a the spread and money line was really close he took the spread but it was like he took that on Friday maybe on Saturday the news came out I moved with the market and probably moved farther than like I've moved on maybe the high end of the move and he came back and pounded the spread and money line like again the same like same side bam bam like kind of fading the move so like we ended up with a decent position against it and I'm sure now on Friday he was betting that the guy wouldn't play so it was kind of like you know three bet three bets huge position on this one side and uh but you know not a ton of great stories of the match just you know the fear of God hearing David out come over the thing and having to explain why you took the bet bet um but usually was okay so jobs are so funny like that like when I was doing my not in sports but like you know uh like whatever traditional job it's like you get into one of those situations where like you fuck up your boss and everyone talks like God fucking damn it like fuck and then they're like okay anyway yeah like don't don't be afraid to keep taking some risks I'm like well you don't understand like you're going to make bad moves and stuff like other being afraid to make a bad move actually makes you a worse part of your job but like people's natural reactions to like fucking God can't believe I took that position or whatever and it's like you're so scared early on that you almost don't realize how much you give up by being scared like that so yeah the first time when I just like heard David about me and like what the fuck are we it's like fucking in you know when you're first starting it's like 30k limited to like oh my God like 30 thousand dollars of the bad bet like when you look back at it now it's like okay what were you two percent off it's 30 thousand dollars it's like six hundred dollars that you cost like an EV but like when you're first starting you're like oh my god I just lost us 30 fucking K so I have my salary but that did win so I was right and yeah and that's all that really matters team to you to say to oh I'm at that fuck no um but though maybe it's like sharp book versus red book I think it's pretty interesting I kind of go back and forth what would be more helpful when you're working at a sharp book it's much more like mono e mono you kind of learn what is a bet that you want to take first what's a bet that you don't like you know as soon as it comes in the ticker like oh fuck like I should that's a bad bet like as soon as you see like there's certain people they would make a bet and you'd be like oh that's like I bet I don't want to have happened as soon as you like heard their name across like we had a lot of speaker they would like say bets of a certain amount you fucking hear stevens oh god stevens just got us on some fucking underdog tweet but it's uh it's really interesting in like the sharp books you kind of I think you get a better sense of what's a good bet what's a bad bet where you're really getting the worst of it um you know when I where it does a trader david al would always be like you know use your limits as weapons use your limits as weapons and like I had no fucking idea what that meant at the time but now like makes perfect sense where it's like okay you know put a low limit out there get put it on like the edge of the market get hit know where like that range is then you can bump it and things like that like I would be so much better of a trader now but it's only something that like you learn kind of going through it um the soft book side is I really wish I had like some kind of background of profiling people on you know kicking them out of sports books essentially it's like that's where I have like our our profiling software sucked um and we didn't have like a great system in place of putting like reviewing accounts and stuff like that you basically were you know if you can bet thirty thousand you're probably relatively smart and like we have to move all few if you can't then like you know then we if you're not getting like if you're betting the limit you're probably reasonably like someone to mess with if not then you aren't like it was kind of part of it and like it just wasn't a big like emphasis for us so the profiling part is like really where I wish I had more background yeah it makes total sense like the the dichotomy of skills he would get in in both um because I feel like a lot of the the people who've worked at does you whatever softer books have like a deep much better intuition and are doing much less guessing about like the profiling parts that then uh you know anybody who hasn't has to do I'm curious if there's anything you know maybe before we move on from deck prison is there anything that like you know when when when people are talking about trading or sports books or at you know anybody that works on that side that would surprise people that people like get wrong or they just don't understand about that side of the counter that um you had the you sort of saw firsthand while you were there I would say that like maybe you you think that like oh I need to have my hands and like all these different markets and stuff and like I need to be so good at all these things and then there was one guy who like one three hundred thousand out of us of beating us late in baseball games knowing when uh they were gonna pitch a position player and then there was like one guy who was holding 18% and all he did was weather shit so like you kind of see uh how many different types of betters there are and like how many different like I think that I have a reaction to try to want to win and like I see some kind of mark and like oh my god that market looks easy I'll just win in that market and it's really like some of the biggest crushers were just winning at a couple things and just absolutely like making you pay every single time you were off those they were like hitting you yeah I know that's the battle I feel like that says like a tangential battle to what we're talking about with like enjoying like coming from the sports side it's like a lot of times what's gonna make you the most money is finding a couple things that you're really good at and just really like ripping their face off on that but what's kind of fun is like dipping your toes in a couple of new things every now and then yeah like dipping into some random market that like I will go deep down it's like you could have actually just bet you're saying Mark like we have this entire system set up for you know I have this thing set up for NBA props I could just run NBA props to find an equal edge do it in one third of the time but it's like no actually I'll go and deep dive this random like unrivaled one-on-one tournament and kind of see where I'm at here it's like the edges aren't any bigger but it's just different and it's kind of interesting I think that partly is well into what at least I wanted to talk about next is like some of the stuff you're betting now so based on what I've heard you talk about you know a lot of college football you mentioned before the show NBA I've also heard you talk about some of those like what I'd call ridiculous or niche or whatever events so maybe just to level set like what is your split of you know by like if I split it into those three it is add and compass 100 like roughly a hundred percent are there other things and if you could give like a breakdown on on your sort of you know volume or however you want to measure time spent or whatever yeah I've kind of been shifting lately um you know not to give shipper another shout out in this pod but I was listening last summer to his uh the business we chose and we talked about a little bit pre-show uh that pod and uh it sounds so stupid but like I was already kind of shifting this way already but he there's one point is like uh what do you you know what are you betting it's like oh I just bet the easy stuff mate and I was like you know thought that's a good idea I should I should just bet the easy stuff like uh kind of clicked and it sounds so dumb but since then I've just tried to focus more on like bigger spots uh you get you know you guys talk about all the time I think you guys do a good job of talking about like you know you got to kind of be in the streets to find the spots but now lately I would say I've kind of shifted more towards finding these kind of rort type bets and kind of really going in on them uh as Claire's you know shits on me later for Heisman was like one of them where I thought that well you know if I if you want to like grind out all these three percent edges it's one thing it's like oh or you can find one 15 percent edge and just you know push all the goddamn chips in and like see how you do there so I've kind of been shifting more towards that but I would say like it's terms of like day-to-day betting uh I'm doing MBA props uh you know beginning of the season is like really busy for me in MBA um and end of season just with news I would say that I like reacted decent amount on any kind of small data problems is something where I tend to do pretty well and I think uh where it's like a blend of okay like when you think of MBA props is you know 10 assumptions you can make right it's like what's your three point of 10th rate what's their minutes what's uh you know their self-created baskets first team created and all these things and you really could like talk yourself into any of these values as a default um so I think I'm pretty good at choosing you know what rates to use in a sense um and kind of going that way so like beginning of season end of season playoffs are really like where I bet a ton uh right now you know I'm much more like selective I would say and then college football uh is much more you know plug into the numbers see what the numbers say bet the numbers um you know way less subjective but again it's you know still relatively new as far as full-time betting and so kind of like changing as we go and kind of shifting more towards uh you know betting the easy stuff the shipper says yeah the small data thing I you know I know we have in the outline under like the college football um section because it does feel like small data ask but it is interesting like to hear you say like yeah I do the playoffs in early season and I feel like a lot of people will say the exact opposite they're gonna be like yeah shut it down with the playoffs and like I I use like the first two weeks to like to like gather data but yeah I think that if you're good at like if you are a very good data scientist it probably like behooves you to wait till in the middle of the season where you can be like okay you know this distribution's off like I'm gonna bet these all tier like that's where guys who are probably more like buttoned up from a data science perspective have the advantage um where I think I'm kind of find my edge in okay you know this person's feel-go attempt rate has changed three games into the seasons that noise or is that real um in kind of like manually looking at everything and kind of adjusting based on that I think that it's extremely no it's good I just think it's an extremely important point um that I want to highlight like because like it depends a lot on sport but like we're gonna be baseballs coming up here relatively soon like if you're thinking you like can bet based on like vibes or even like simple excel model on something like you know picture strikeouts in in August like that's not gonna work almost certainly um and so like when when people ask where should they start like modeling or coming up with numbers I I think these small data problems are like and they don't even have to be they can be small data problems that are big part of a bigger problem right like because if you if you think of baseball or something like there's a it's a huge data problem but if you uh sub sample it or subset it down you can actually turn it into a small data problem so what I wanted to ask you is is why do you think you're good at that like do you think it's it's like it it sort of sounds like you think you're you're just good at um maybe separating signal from noise just like through watching and might be more manual processes but I'm curious what traits or skills you you think you have that that makes you well equipped to do that type of thing yeah I'm the I mean I'm a sound on the risk of sounding like total douche bag I think I do a very good job of thinking kind of in first principles and really like okay what is the actual impact of this thing and what is it kind of causing which I know at like it sounds like hocus polka's bullshit kind of a little bit I understand but if I was just listening to it I could be like you know oh yeah everybody thinks they're good at that but I I think that there is like you know really drilling down to what is different versus what is not and all like all these small data problems there is a like a level of judgment where it's subjective right where it's like okay do I include this do I not and I don't know if there's a certain skill set that I would say that like oh you know I'm so much a reason why I'm better at it but I think that I'm just pretty good at kind of you know one probably thinking about the impact of certain small data problems and two kind of valuing how much to regress that back how much to include it and lots of times I think finding them and basically betting on when other people aren't accounting for them yeah I was just I was just going to add it that I'm curious to be your thought on all this but like if there's ones you know we have questions about actuaries and we led with actuaries if there's one skill set that I think is the most like transferable it's it's this of like relatively incomplete data or small data and how to blend like bigger data with a smaller data sample I think that's that's like you know it's it's very mathematical and formulaic and like textbook and whatnot in the actual actual aerial world and it's not that way in the real world but a lot of the curriculum is like gear or at least a portion of the curriculum is geared towards towards that type of thing so I think having like a math background while also being able to like because the way I've disguised math background but also being able to put your finger in the air and you know feel which way the wind is blowing and not just being like so anchored to just a model is what you know the people who do this well in my opinion do yeah I so like a example I think that someone was watching couch football one Tuesday or whatever it was like a weekday game he's like oh you know are you watching this game and I was like oh no like I tell you I'm not I'm you know doing whatever he goes oh yeah the you know the play clock is down on the field so they're like manually having the refs go in he's like I figured that you would have like three theories of the case of why like how that would affect the game like immediately I was like actually probably no impact live or whatever but like little shit like that I think that I do a pretty good job of like thinking through the impact or another big one was again one and didn't work don't work out for me was couch football they changed the clock rules two years ago and like basically I did as much of a deep dive as you could do of like okay how much does a first down stop when they stop the clock for a first down it's you know three seconds how much is that going to affect this team seconds per play versus this team and basically when I came out to the end of it it was like oh it's like barely I thought it would affect teams much differently it didn't it it didn't really do much at all but like situations like that I think where it's like how is this going to impact the picture at large it's kind of like a blend of you know a mix of subjective data and how much to wait one day to verse the other and I think it do a pretty good job of like trying to decide those two things that it's always like you're like oh okay this is interesting like you're gonna do this like there's this could be it like the secret sauce and yeah in fact it's nothing up it's nothing again yeah it's well you know that's the thing though is you have to like you have to deep dive six different things in like five of them are totally bullshit don't help you out whatever you're like oh I just wasted all this time like looking into it but you know for the one of the six that hits it's such an advantage because basically you're reacting to something before other people like have it known it's just such a big advantage that the other five you can throw out and have it still be worth your time yeah no I they're like it's like a VC fund but the I was gonna ask like you kind of I don't like you're like kind of this mix of what I would call a ball knower and you know I mean you have like a legitimate data science background like do you think do you think like that's the optimal path for better like I always think that but then I think of like Rufus and he's like I don't know any players on the team and I just make millions of dollars I'm like damn that sounds fun too no I think this like goes back to when people talk about like ball knowledge what it actually means like oh congratulations yeah you had a great tweet about that you know it's like oh congrats you can name the third string running back like that's not what actual ball knowledge is like you know every like Rufus can joke about how he like doesn't know know the players and but he thinks about the impact of different things in a way that I would say that like his ball knowledge quote unquote is actually much greater than a ton of people and like he thinks about I mean you can whenever they talk about the NFL it's like him or Jeff talking like at the process or whatever you can hear him like I think that whenever he is asking questions they're usually like oh yeah that's something I've always kind of wondered too like he does I think he actually people like do him a disservice by saying he doesn't like because he doesn't know the players quote unquote but like he actually is thinking about the game overall and the structure of the game in a way that actually is what I would consider more ball knowledge than you know the person who's like oh you know I know like the backup quarterback for the Seahawks this year is I don't know the back of Seahawks quarterback for the Seahawks is but you know if you did oh it's uh true lock right uh G easy guy uh true lock yeah yeah yeah so um but yeah so anyways yeah that was a bit of a diet tribe but yeah I think that like having anybody who looks at the sport in a very curious way is kind of the people who are the most interesting to me so walk walk me through you said you betting NBA props and and um in college football like walk me through maybe like this in terms of like the stuff you're betting regularly I know you say you're shifting more into like the big spots and stuff but for the stuff you are betting regularly or have historically bet regularly what does your what is your process look like is there like something that spits out a number and then you're doing some stuff on top of that or are you starting at a different basis like how are you coming up with with bets broadly on you know like a daily basis sure so uh NBA props is still a good old fashion excel model um so uh I probably the last year sadly that it will be in that but you know basically like at this point I so I'll upload all the days numbers like run it through with a set of default um and kind of look at you know what are the biggest edges the first five edges are like okay minute assumptions wrong cross off those they almost never are actual bets look at some of the bigger ones um the bigger edges go through and basically pull it up and then every assumption um if you're talking like minutes feel go temporary fall rate um you know teammate adjust things like that like I just go through and kind of check and think okay you know what would I use on this number this number this number um and that's kind of how I used to do it now at this point like I basically know it's a lot more SGPs now um and I kind of know the spots where I think the markets wrong or I think that like it's going to be priced incorrectly um you know there's certain spots where I'm like okay I want to attack this type of SGP and I plug it in and um kind of go from there now so like at this point I don't always even run like the first set of projections and kind of see what my model says as far as like edges and stuff like that I kind of now I'm picking and choosing like okay I know that I like this spot I know based on this team I like this spot um and kind of going like you know where I think that there could be more values especially like with SGP stuff there's like a handful of different situations that I'm going to attack I had a question on your like assumptions and how you're testing those or looking at them like are you moving them around a little bit to do some kind of like pseudo sensitivity analysis and then yeah yeah so essentially like what I'll do a lot of times is kind of like okay if I and again this is more like when I was betting more straight props I would be like okay you know I show edge of uh number that's like 13% edge it's obviously wrong right it's like it's too high so what if I use this feel go attempt rate what if I use like the worst low end version of it um and I thought about like what I wanted to do at one point was to run it like essentially at various different um when I converted it all over um out of Excel I was going to run it at like the low end the high end and like you know try to match it and try to make it more like process driven and then I found I was like you know I don't know if that's even the best way to do it is just at this point probably better off kind of just going at the spots that I know are better and kind of approaching it like more it is a piecemeal um spot rather than kind of doing that but yeah essentially you're like stress testing it with okay I know the feel go attempt rate isn't going to be lower than this if I plug that in is that still an edge is it not an edge kind of that situation yeah I actually want to highlight this is Excel like first sometimes like it gets shed on a little bit like there's no better program for like like just being in there like tweaking stuff like if you have I had to do it now it's so annoying to like move around and that's on me that's like lack of skill I need to build in some better manual tweaking but like Excel it's just so baked into that program and so nice and it's such a visual medium that I actually think that like it kind of you know not till like we're like oh you know what you guys actually need to do is to do Excel models like I understand like you know now if I was setting it up I would set it up with like a shiny half where you can you know adjust it and do like all these things and but like when you're first starting I think it's very like the what I have now is like too big and but like breaks at different points it has our calculations in it's like it's definitely like not what it was made to do originally but like I do think when you're first starting it's very helpful to see like a visual representation of every step along the way like here's my number here's my next number here's my next number it's like a very good tool to build things in especially like everything I've ever built was kind of like you know building the plane is you're flying it as you guys said so like a lot of it was like starting off with I want to tack one area and then you know I want to tack this I'll use this to move into that and like kind of slowly build it out until it's like a monotrocity that you never like contracted with the beginning I love it and Excel is it you know spoken like a true actuary yeah you'd love to see it you know it will all be plugged into the matrix but the actuaries were hold on to their their Excel no doubt but I do agree with that I mean I think when we did we did a show long or a little while back now on modeling and I think in that I basically said just like do something on paper you have a you know a whiteboard behind you literally do it on like paper or Excel or whatever and with the tools today it's it's like much easier to convert that to something more automated but you're gonna like be able to follow the flow especially if it's like one of your first times doing this much easier if you're doing it and something like transparent and you're not you're not gonna like run the code and have something that makes total not there's like total nonsense when you're done if you you do it in some way that's transparent yeah now now with like so many with LLM's basically making so anybody can like code at any time it's gonna be interesting like there's no reason now to start and do your shitty Excel model like people will just be like oh I'll just put it in an R model but I wonder if almost like there isn't something of you know testing all your assumptions more um in a more strenuous way when you write it yourself you know it doesn't have to be in a cell we just basically if you write it yourself versus having something else write your assumptions for you I wonder if it like you know I mean it probably is just it shrunken by the actual benefits of it but I wonder if there is something lost of like you know this helps you actually be like what you know why am I using this here kind of thinking through each of something that you use a little bit more thoroughly yeah I mean I guess I like I got I feel like I got some pushback on that take of like spend a little that like maybe one day a week like writing yourself without people really cool that's so stupid without like an LLM but maybe like you don't have to just like sit in a dark room like as a you know churning butter for one day but like the the concept of like kind of knowing how stuff works a little bit helped I think it just helps you talk to the LLM's a lot better for sure I mean my basically my process is now like I have the LLM write the code if it doesn't work I S LLM why the code isn't working if that doesn't work I ask a different LLM why the code isn't working and if that doesn't work I ask my partner why the LLM isn't giving me the right answer so I don't know if like that's the most sustainable path of what that's it's called a pipeline yeah it's like basically I'm like why is this not working like like it's such a caveman being like why you know computer not makes sense like are you just keep posting the error message no nothing you just like just all caps yelling at it like the first tool we can have where you can just yell it and call it a moron it's like oh I'm sorry you're totally correct yeah partner usually doesn't react that way yeah I thought I was talking chat you yeah I mean the ones now you don't even have to like repeatedly plug in the air it sees its air and just goes full hallucination after enough iterations so a couple more questions on like what you're betting maybe today like the stuff you're betting today in the two markets we talked about college football and NBA news seems like a huge piece of both of those like I mostly me personally I've mostly steered clear of NBA type stuff and I know like player props and NBA is like I would say like the dominant market at least on the side of gambling Twitter I'm not and like the people I see but it seems like news is such a big part of that is that a big part of like your process how do you stay on top of it and it could extend to college football too oh to be honest I think it's something that I haven't done a great job of in the past we're getting much better speaking of like cloud and stuff was setting up kind of data pipelines and kind of setting it up where it will pull up automatically like hey you know pull up information about team acts if I wanted to and kind of setting that stuff up I'm hoping to do basically we have it set up for NBA now for college football I think it's going to be so much more helpful as far as just like sourcing a bunch of data into an LLM and kind of having the LLM pull from that rather than it just whenever you try to have any kind of LLM pull from the internet it really gets confused on time it seems like it doesn't understand when one thing overrides the other and it's like oh they're you know questionable for this game so I've been trying to kind of source that all into one spot where I can have it pull up certain information um but until like just recently we've kind of got that for NBA now um until then I don't think that I've done a particularly great job of uh kind of managing the news like didn't have a great system um but it's basically just when you're betting NBA there's only 13 so it's like you know you can kind of just read the information and manage it all in your head um and in football it's much harder um to do that same thing what I think ends up having at least for me is so like at the beginning of the season I'm gonna be I'm gonna disagree on a few teams and kind of have real strong opinions on you know them first others and then um as the season goes on you're kind of betting the same teams and kind of like you almost kind of self-select into like not worrying about other teams like as we get later into the season if I show an edge on a team and I don't totally know what's going on with them I'll either research it or kind of just be like okay pass I don't know what's going on but then a lot of my edges end up you know not necessarily like plan but like I'll end up betting a lot of the same conference a lot of times a lot of like the smaller conferences stuff like that um in college football you can kind of self-select because there's so many games and in NBA it's kind of just you know reading it all all the time all engrossing uh not having a life you know those kind of things so uh it's a pain in the ass but hopefully getting better at kind of learning to manage it I think that's probably like the next step uh for us is like having clear data lines good information all the time so like it's not something that's so piecemeal I think that's cool what you did like that that's something like I've I've kicked around is like how could you use an L um to like get info like kind of like more subjective info faster but like I it's it's always been that like well we'll do this at x point like you know whatever but I think that's so cool yeah for football I hopefully we'll get it in like I'm really uh the prompt for football is a lot of it's like paid websites and stuff and there's so much shit that you just have to wait through so it's like if I can you know try to get the data into it better I think that should be helpful and then for basketball it's mostly a time things for basketball underdog NBA like it's honestly like it gets you 95% of the way there right it's like one you're not going to get a ton of alpha um from anything that's in uh underdog NBA but it like keeps you up to par and then you can find your alpha and kind of pick and choose your spot the nice thing is like we have adverse selection working on our side as better it's right it's like the underdog NBA we'll get you part of the way there and then you just need to have uh you know I have a million Twitter lists and shit like that but um that's probably the next step I think it's like probably a ton of alpha leaving off there is kind of just getting things a more precise way to like feed into it so maybe one more let's do one more question unlike the betting stuff and then we'll go to go to maybe prediction markets um and this one is more geared towards like operations and just just your how you how you continue to grow in scale um we not really talk too much about it but I'm assuming you sort of left um deck prison started betting or we're betting your own stuff at deck prison and left at at some point I'm guessing you quickly ran into like accounts limited and all this and you probably understood that just working on the trading side and being around some of those people so how have you like stayed in the game um because there's a lot of people who start out and make some money and have some success it's more rare for people to do this um you know full time and whatnot so like how have you stayed in the game how have you scaled have you treated this like a business uh basically just by partnering with people um I think if you are genuinely an originator who can prove you can win I people probably underrate how easy it is to get people to work with you I think I think that a lot of people are actually like there's a lot more in movers and people with accounts and people who want like someone to originate plays then gets talked about like they there's just a lot more people who aren't coming up with their own number uh than there are people who are so if you can do that at a pretty decent level I think people are you know pretty willing to work with you um so I basically yeah I think just partnering has been the number one way I've done it as far as just being able to keep increasing that you know size without uh basically having to go into a higher limit times and was that like when you started with that was that like what did you start with like you know more of these I would call serious markets like NBA player props I think are pretty competitive coach footballs obviously pretty competitive or did you start with like more of the BS markets like when you were starting no I so like I started with college football and if anything I've gone towards more BS markets like I've kind of gone the opposite way I was like uh trying I was betting college football and like I do it you know Sunday Monday and like Tuesday things like that take what I could um but now one I also moved from Nevada to Ohio recently so like there's just you're going to approach the books that you're betting it differently um if you're kind of doing wreck books first if you're moving through people and stuff like that um so yeah I if anything have gone uh to more kind of crap markets uh as I've kind of scaled now and trying to got higher ROI stuff uh then before when I was just grinding out college football just basically doing the weeks games and that was it no one wants to battle anymore we just we just want to just take the take the easy spots and pay the bills yeah I although I think like one of the best like things that you guys talked about was when uh SB talked about like horizontal scaling and basically everything like I've that has been some kind of offshoot of that first like original try to bet the number then I'm like okay let me try like this derivative based off that let me try how this impacts that like I think that like that horizontal scaling was such a good kind of way to frame the problem where it's if you first start off with the hard problem like then you can go and branch into all these like different shit easier markets higher higher ROI stuff uh if you first get the basics of kind of where the main number is coming from because you know like when Lewis talking is like hey you know it's a derivative calculator um that's like basically what vanuels created if you can create the main number then you can create your one derivative much easier um if you kind of understand what's going into the main number couldn't agree more I feel like you need to trade my horizontal scaling SB like soon maybe I'm not quite the brand or that uh that spanky is with his various things and and putting things in a positive light but yeah no I mean I agree I think um that you know that's that's always there's challenging things about scaling and no matter how you're doing it like if you have some great edge on you know a single book it's just a market that's only offered in one book there's gonna be hard things about getting um a bunch of volume down at that so like an alternative you know and it's not obviously one-to-one it's different considerations but an alternative is like if you can just solve many different problems and continue to solve new problems and go in different directions like you're just gonna have more ability to to place bets if you can because every book and site and de-ifest plus and all these like they all have different things and so if you can just continue to like build a web is sort of how I view it and you can cover more and more area so um yeah it makes makes total sense to me do we want to get into prediction markets the yeah let's let let's do it we can't leave them out this is important stuff and the important times um yeah I guess like the first thing we I feel like we always ask anybody about prediction markets is like what's your kind of long what's your like short medium long term heat check on the industry like is it cured too is it going to be like a meaningful shift in betting or speculating or predicting or is it going to be like a Trump administration flashing the pan uh I mean there's a lot of people investing a lot of money in these so I like you know top-down opinion gathering here I've just like it seems like that there's at least something there um if they take out the sports part of it it would make sense to me if I was if state I'd be like why the hell am I allowing uh state you know at least we're gonna tax him like a sports book and if they tax him like a sports book then like are you losing the essence of what makes like can you run a PM on uh sports book you know taxation I don't know I truly have no idea I'm not smart enough to answer those questions but um I think that like for now I would just assume that they are going to exist in some form or fashion or at least the like the sports exchanges of years before like when we thought like sport trade was like kind of going to be something it seems like we're gonna get at least that to exist um kind of going forward like you know no big is kind of essentially that like you know kind of planned out or whatever so I think that there's going to be some version of them um there's some kind of exchange it seems like for the foreseeable future so how much how much have you I was gonna ask how much have you maybe just a level set a little bit like how much have you I know you're you're at least on on some of them like how much are you are you interacting with them are you on all of them like the sweepstakes ones like the profit and no big uh calisheep polymarket are you interacting with them all how much and maybe it's just like a broad split of how much of your volume these days is like between traditional you know legal sports betting or offshore or whatever and um kind of prediction markets uh very little now I'm predicting markets but that's just like a more of a circumstance of it being basketball season so like during football season a lot of it was honestly a lot of it was uh put up an arb to uh whatever and hope that you're taking grab and hood brec flow into it and like nothing there's basically no skill I people would be like oh you know congrats on your big week and you showed up on the leaderboards like I literally did nothing to like that was impressive when we did a knowledge team the one week you didn't know which team you're on right yeah I thought I lost 30k 130k yeah so like during football though I would say there's at least times where I was like you know taking a stance on the prop offerings like we have now I do finally have the API set up you know shout out after uh loosen uh whatever uh access to it and things like that I do have the API set up for Kelsey um it's just I can find that I can get a lot more down on uh you know legal books than I can like if I put up something on a pm uh it moves it's like it's much more likely to move the market if you put up something good on Novig it's like or I could just wait and hit six wreck books for whatever the you know for much larger limits or whatever it's like why would I ever risk my position um doing that if I can still do the other ones obviously there's like kind of longevity stuff um eventually I would like to start going back and trading them a little bit more um but for NBA props it's just gonna be tough um for couch football probably be back there uh if they have uh some UFL you know a big UFL guy so uh if they have those up there or some of these smaller markets I think as they like start to get more uh you know my dog shit markets has I've moved into here these easy like high ROI stuff uh it probably will be less higher ROI on the prediction market so so it kind of goes against my philosophy of uh betting the easy stuff that I've shifted to so but uh not much now I still will bet like huge opportunities but uh if you you know like day to day not much uh but that's more just like of the sports season more than anything you're you're muted GP okay I was like I thought I was gonna I was making some good points um oh that's where the real genius was right in there yeah that was it and we're screwed that was my one moment I was gonna say being at like deck prism and a spot that like you said would have just absolutely crushed at pms does that make you like think about you know going that route at least slightly or like coming up with maybe like buying a buying it like a live feed for college football and like setting up live model or or whatnot yet like you know down the road sure um there's just way too much uh like I think they would have crushed it because they're in-game live model was the nuts so like that's something that I don't have um because uh and always much smarter than me so um basically like yes I think that there's tons of opportunity um but I think that like you know everybody doesn't want to deal with the friction of sports betting until you start to really compete one-on-one against the top guys it's like actually you know the friction isn't too bad uh you know if I'm able to go and bet a little bit more it's like you know where you like for some people really grind in the operations of it is going to be their edge like they want the most friction I probably want like a medium level friction where it's like oh you know I I can still bet somewhat larger markets but um uh you know I'm not the best at logistics but like I don't have to go toe-to-toe with the highest level guys like live or whatever in the prediction market so like where Rufus is obviously very skilled doesn't want any friction he just wants to be mono-emano it's like you know I like uh kind of in the middle round there yeah I mean it's it's an extension of like limits and everything of like they if there's truly no limits like you'd be competing against people who are who are much smarter than uh I'll speak for myself myself and so I think a lot of the a lot of the of the prediction markets depend on which one we're talking about but like as it's currently as it's just that it's it's new and so there's it's not as competitive as it will be like a year or two from now um and there's you know like the the wreck flow to non-reck flow on some of them is outsized on some of them it's totally the opposite like you had brought up the uh the sweepstakes ones like the the profit and no big I think you know which you say that makes total sense with like the sharp money tool in the way like I think the the the party's a little bit over on some of that for for people like level one thinking and so it'll be interesting to see how those companies attract the the recreational flow like like Kalashy and and you know probably probably market I'm not on that but to an extent to to get to entice entice people back yeah I think part of it is to like if I had the bot process like if I set up uh more iceberg flows and could like have it trade automatically and stuff like that like part of that's just a skill issue on my behalf but it's uh one of those things where it's like okay are you gonna take like I mean GP has gone all in and has done like all this work it's like I kind of have almost gone the other way where it's like hey you know I'll use them to take big chunks and spots where I think it's plus EV but if you're not like fully diving in there um it's really hard to kind of it's kind of you know like being half pregnant there like to try to half do it um it's really tough to kind of manually trade all that stuff how how are you half pregnant yeah that's that's a phrase you can't be half pregnant so you can't halfway do it yeah see I didn't I didn't I don't know the phrases I don't know but I like what you're saying because it's similar to like the calculus around us being like oh okay we're we're gonna kind of like just take a take a stab at like this specifically and kind of basically shot a wreck prep business down but you kind of got to pay you got to like you got to know what you're doing you you have a plan you're like okay I'm gonna do X or Y and I think you could get caught semi in between which felt like probably for both of us the wrong thing would be like getting like caught fully halfway um but I will also like I will I will also say that you know there's obviously opportunities out there for manually winning on a lot of these these places which I think we got a lot of questions of like can you even win if if you're fully manual like certainly certainly you can but it's like what are you using the prediction markets then for you kind of using them for bedding as opposed to like using them for what I call like trading which is like you're gonna be up you're gonna have a huge amount of uptime you're gonna do a ton of volume you're gonna trade out like a super low margin and like you're not gonna be super directional as opposed to like if you're trading it like a part of your bedding business like it fits in super naturally yeah I think that I probably made a mistake early on trying to like half-ass it where I was like okay you know I'll be in these markets put up a make order see what I get and then news came and just cross me or whatever so I like him almost kind of been moving towards all right I'm gonna take these six positions where I think I can get huge uh you know positions in and like you know go from there as far as like you just end up trying to trade a million things and kind of get caught although like it is super interesting I just think you learn a ton trading it like I've learned already learned a million things from like oh this like this good in this spot this is good in that spot you know here's where you should check the rules like these doll these little bullshit markets or whatever that are like non-sport or whatever I've learned a million things like oh this is where the like rules would have mattered you should check the rules closer here um which is interesting but I don't know if it's actually like I'm gaining alpha frontman I think I'm actually probably you know doing the opposite and would be better off almost getting rid of them completely but uh it's interesting at least yeah I'm never wanting I never like my edges like not in the rules like I'm going to lose against the rules people like every single time I've just accepted so I will not look at something that feels like bruise like yeah I got I bet some some Epstein file stuff I've absolutely crushed by the rules what was the rules like I bet like like you mentioned in them oh it's like oh yes no connections to Epstein like there's no reason he would be in it's like somebody made some dumb ass like connection to p-ditty like you know and then in the files it's like there was a chasey album on boom he's mentioned in the file count so that's like oh okay you know that's something where I probably should have just stayed the fuck out is that a bad beat that might be a bad beat oh I got to ask China yeah I do I do think the rules stuff is interesting on Calishe I mean I think one of the things that comes up with it is they just don't have the same like even if we're focusing specifically on sports like in not obviously the rule stuff is I think crazy on some of the other stuff and like you really have to be paying attention but even on sports there's been a handful of spots where the way that like these these bets are written is different than every single other sports book basically and people don't understand that and it can create like you know like good opportunities I'm still tilting about the the Jake Paul lockout what a what a horrible beat that was but yeah so it is interesting I do think the point though about I think if you're gonna like half-ass this you definitely shouldn't be trying to do that like on the make side like I think that is a dangerous game to play I think a lot of people probably think they can just like whatever hook up and start printing money and I think that's likely a dangerous game to play so I think it makes total sense if you're not all in to focus on like specific spots or these rules spots or all these things so maybe last question I had on prediction markets what would need to change for you to like go more all in would it be more of the the markets that that like more of this the smaller markets obviously it's really limited right now in terms of like props and stuff or would there be other aspects where that would that would cause you to sort of reevaluate this and get more heavily involved yeah basically if I could get if I thought I could get more in the prediction market if I could get more down that way than I could if I spent it on uh you know doing wreck books or whatever other avenues to get down is basically you know could I get down in a way where I don't have to do all this cloak and dagger shit um it would be helpful sure um but we're just so far away from that um and it just seems like you're just always going to be I shouldn't say always it just seems like for now there's a lot of opportunities where you're better off just trying to go the easier route especially if I think that uh one of my one of since I've kind of moved into the bullshit markets I think are not bullshit I should say betting on the easier stuff I think I do a really good job of hiding the action as far as like it's pretty obvious you know if you are betting that like the stuff I'm not like chasing steam or anything like that like I think I can do a good job of blending it in um and if I have that skill set it's going to make more sense for me to like I'm going to be able to get more down and soft books I guess yeah I always thought like originating is is a really good or like pseudo originating is a great way to just like operate on soft books because you get to add you know you can you can build a parlay that like isn't the top of odd screen you know to pair with something you know yeah and it's now it's pretty it's pretty clear now that like the name of the game used to be hey get CLV now the name of the game is like you just have to find a way to win without CLV and if you're not originating you just won't do that like there's no way I shouldn't say there's no way there like there are ways to do it but I think that like originating your own numbers everything now is just how can you beat the CLV report how can you beat the reports that look for sharps um and it seems pretty like clear what they're targeting uh so you just have to you know it's cat and mouse you got to react and try to not show up on those reports 100 percent I mean we've talked about if you if you can bet into stuff that is not even the best price not not even being CLV but it's like not best price in market as the time you're betting yeah it's even better if it's like a lot of these um maybe thinner markets in terms of like liquidity are wider in terms of uh margin and so that gives them like a false sense of security so if they're like saying like an average hold report or something on you you're betting into some 20 percent market like that's in a vacuum better even if it is even if the 20 percent margin is not because the reality is like the multiplier of margin is never enough like an NFL spread is not whatever two or three times more efficient than some ridiculous kind of perfect right right yeah okay it is pretty similar to these things it's you know it's like the Matthew Trenhal line he's like you know big is just fear it's like a bookmaker is just putting more big in places where they don't want to take the bet like if you can make your bet show up as something where they're like oh my god we're getting this guy like if you can increase the variance and show like high expected ROI loss like that's kind of been the area we've been attacking more recently is like I think that there's love it's like kind of a mix between it's kind of go back to the mix between data science and subjective where it's like how can I get this in without looking so obvious all right so I want to make sure yeah I was going to say I want to make sure we have time for the the questions but so before the the questions we got to hit on on mr. PB I'm not using Mike for this one mr. PB the social the the persona because we actually got a I don't know do we include flops oh yeah we did we did include flood question so flops question sort of gets into this a couple of them do but maybe like we'll so we'll go into maybe some of the details and some of the questions but maybe just walk us through like the reason you decide to get on Twitter I don't know if it was like right when you were starting to to bet or the timing of it all you know some people stay off Twitter you know betting some are like more active I would definitely consider you active in the the the gambling Twitter space so like what what is that decision about is it is it for fun is there utility to it what's the the reasoning behind it yeah good to flops question he says how much does he cost himself by spending half his time trolling on X as opposed to actually betting this is rich coming from the guy I'm pretty sure that they had to shut down spaces because flop was running e-line muskets like server cost e-line could only afford it so much every space in the world flop was somehow in there just chopping it up with everybody so rich coming from that guy that he's telling me oh oh can you spend time on Twitter everyone's in a while but no it's funny enough I don't know if I actually ever told I talk with Evan's Kirk Evans pretty regularly and he I was listened to a circle's off and like I started you ever go to my Twitter there's like a bet stamp where I have like two bets in and I was like okay you know I'm starting to run out of accounts I'll start a bet stamp show people I can win money and you know do it the old-fashioned way like oh look at this guy and I just listen to a circles off and Kirk was like oh yeah I just started talking shit on Twitter and like people are willing to partner with me because I sounded like relatively smart and like was talking shit I was like oh my god if I can talk shit like that's way easier than like building this bet stamp verified record it's just like you know talk shit to people and so I like I had a Twitter that I just used for sports list and like didn't tweet what to ever just no profile and I was like okay fuck it I'll just start tweeting at people and talking shit and hopefully it helps me network and yeah basically it's like been the source of most of my networking that I've done and kind of help me give accounts it's like hilarious that a large amount of my income I can thank to being on Twitter and saying Steve Vesick is a sharp guy who I think wins long-term like actually has made me like large sums of money but yeah so that's kind of how it started and basically just use it for that yeah it's like that you have to it's so it is interesting is you want to work with people and you want people to think like this guy wins but you also don't want to like put your entire bet history out there for everybody to just like you know back into your edge so you have to do these creative things like you know complaining about Epstein file that beat or like making a whole podcast you do every week with no sponsorship yeah we'll get into actually we'll talk about that later while with my hot tates I have a take on like sharing information on Twitter and stuff like that so okay yeah you're we're all in the industry here we're all media personalities yeah okay maybe we save that because we have one I had one other question about like you're your outlook on content and stuff but it sounds like maybe that'll be related to the hot tics and maybe maybe we maybe we save that unless you have anything else you want to say about your you know personality you're you know podcasting anything else about that no I'm good ready to go to the questions let's do it this is my favorite this is the question I've honestly been waiting for since we got it which is from our literally our last guest we have two actuaries on this so I'm I'm asking yeah I know SP's not gonna get dragged down into the mud but Adam asks rank the top three actuary turns sports better Twitter accounts there's some notable ones I don't know like if if you can give a outlook of who all are the actuary turn Twitter it's elf elf you two us two cars cars last my best my best friend Logan Matthews oh I didn't know Logan was one okay plus Evie analytics okay this I know I know there's I know there's a lot more like in the Evie betting community I've seen them like interact and and stuff so there are there are more too I think there's more of what's up there there's dozens yes dozens yeah I think that like maybe to hot take I think plus Evie is a very good Twitter account to follow he like he has one lane and if you are expecting any kind of ball knowledge outside of it like you'll be vastly disappointed but I think like he posts very interesting like I never want to get like I don't want to think too hard about whether it's a beta binomial or a binomial distribution and like oh my god like I'll never forget one time for my props I had a pleasant distribution that I was using and I switched to it's negative binomial arrays the one that you would switch to or so I switch to negative binomial um and I like read it all this remembers an excel so it took me fucking all night to like go through and change all these goddamn formulas did everything and then it was equal to like if you change the players minutes by 0.025 like it was the fucking smallest difference like it's like there's so many factors that I think are more important than some of them but that's a kind of shit like you know he found his niche and he's great at it and I think he's genuinely very good at it um it's never something I would want to get drowned into but like I think it's very interesting his stuff when he like kind of talks about it and bearings and things like that I agree and his bird he always has pictures of his bird just like like he just lets it room free I'm like wow that's a lot high level of trust in your bird um and then obviously you know I think elf is a standard that we all judge yourself against um and I try to be more like him every day and we'll just give sp the third slot then sp yeah sp i'm glad i'm glad i made it a top three on the podium i'm just i'm just honored to be here with my colleagues uh let's let's let's go sp any any actuary comments um no i the only thing we that way i was gonna ask early in the show and to get your perspective on me sir the touch line like do you have any takes on on why I sort of shared mine like do you have any takes on on why there's like seemingly a lot of overlap I think it's like the job is pretty well set up right like what is nothing what is insurance but a bet right it other than like will this thing you know liver die is the most morbid of it or will this car crash or not crash it's basically a bet so i think there's a lot of overlap um and it's kind of the most natural like job into it i think the fact that honestly you don't see more of it is just the nerve center in actuary science is like like if if anything i think that underrepresent how good of a job is for picking these people but it's just like most of the people who are actuaries are people who wanted to study tests so they didn't have to face job uncertainty they're not gonna go out and just gamble yeah i think that hits the nail on the head of my take as well so let's go to next one from Calvin what's the funniest story he's got about getting money down getting more money down than people would expect on an illiquid novelty that trying and failing counts to if it's funny i like that he prefaced like you can tell us if you failed that it has to be fucking fun there was a market i it's probably dried up but i want to incase it's not that like was available basically i think only in vegas could you really get down on it um and it was uh you could bet you could tease it so that the chances of losing were essentially zero and uh basically you would have to wait till the thing reset so i just pulled up a chair and like had twenty thousand dollars and just waited in way like put it had to do it four hundred dollars at a time set weights go on my phone went there and just like i just pulled up a chair uh sat went like clicked around did other things and set until they eventually turned it off at like two a.m. like after i got it down a decent amount but yeah i just pulled up a chair the one time and was sitting in the middle of a boy casino just waiting for them to turn off the market a lot of people not in Vegas boy casinos are not the nicer of you know you know we're not talking about the m here talking about you know belazio it's not a it's not a seizures brand no no it is not so that's what you're living the ap lifestyle you kind of like we're like time distance yourself from the ap world but there you are like sitting in the middle of a casino for yeah when i first started for a while i would like i would run the props overnight and like at some points i'd like stay up all night run the props and then i would go and just kiosk jam like throughout the day i'd had like a loop that i went on like went to all six different ones would like go from place to place to place it was like oh my god this is exhausting i don't know what i'm gonna do and then you know start a networking and figured out i didn't have to hate my life this is this is not a listener question is one that i i realized i should have asked you you moved from Vegas to Ohio you had mentioned was that just sort of like a lifestyle thing was that challenging at all obviously you know there's there's legal sports betting in Ohio i assume but it's obviously quite a bit different than Nevada so what was that like and what was the reason for that yeah i'm from Ohio originally um i moved out for the trading job um and then just stayed out there and to be honest i didn't realize until i got here how much like being in the bed of probably handicappedy um as far as like the market like with illegal books here it's so much like you just there aren't legal books in the same way out there there's no draft kings no fan duel uh no like ESPN it's basically just seizures um as far as like the main legal books in bed and jam um but yeah i think that it kind of like i didn't realize until i got out here like holy shit like this is like there's so many places that you can bet here it's so much better um kind of moving back to Ohio so yeah i think that in Nevada like obviously everybody thinks of Vegas because it started there's some like spots for you know kiosk damning and all that but like if you actually like are starting to scale up being in Vegas is like the worst place in the world yeah that's sad it's sad because i i have like i feel i feel a special place in my heart for Vegas you know it's kind of the the spot where it all started but like it's just not necessarily the good spot to be if you're a professional you know maybe a poker player it's still it's still viable but that's about it um let's talk about we talked about this a little bit earlier uh but Rowdy Reggie asks how do you model a slasher originator number for spots uh or even spots with small of sports the first one was spots and the other one was even oh okay i see a number for spots so like a big kind of weird one-off spot or even sports with small sample data so like in can you talk about how you incorporate historical benchmarks into your process yeah so i think for all these the best way to attack it is to make the problem as small as you can so like you're starting with the big problem of how many points will this team score and then you're gonna break it down to what rate will they score and how fast will they go then you break how fast will they go into how fast will they go when up how fast will they go when down how fast and neutral games day or how efficient will they be on shots how many shots will they get like you know you're just taking a large problem and you shrink it down as many times as you can and then for the small data problems a lot of times what you can find is like okay many of the you know parts of the equation aren't changed and you're actually only changing a few like parts of the larger equation and then once you get there it's basically you know but like i said it's then it kind of gets into the subjective part but if you can make sure you can break the problem down to make it so that you're only changing what you have to change i think that that's probably the best way to attack it kind of like is a structural answer i like that that's good i might clip that as the intro i'm not 100% sure yet oh i was like at the beginning i was kind of wondering when what is going to be the intro clip so what do you think i don't know i don't want to tell you how to do your job okay fair enough fair enough i don't know what's coming so that that's that's true is a surprise sometimes and usually i'm like damn i wish i wrote down the timestamp on when they said that okay we have mic but not you asking question in your experience what's the most effective use of machine learning in sports modeling for origination if yeah i mean we don't really do any machine learning and that's like a hundred percent skill issue as a kid say you know like i definitely want to earlier this year i was talking with my partner and i was like you know thinking about like when teams get up in college football i was like i think we could throw it like how to adjust their pace is like i think we could throw it into a machine learning model where it's like okay what does this team do win up how much does that affect their pace teams overall teams with their run pass ratio and like like throw it in large this large you know actually boost and like see how much that used to adjust it and then like i looked and it turned out that we were accidentally using a team's defensive inputs for offensive on like red zone possessions or like something like the most basic fuck up you could have it's like you know until i get all the fundamentals down maybe these ideas of machine learning pace adjustments can go behind so i don't use it a lot i want to use it i think that there are spots where you can use it as far as i think keeping it in a contained data like a contained problem is going to be the best spots to use it but sadly i don't really use it much or really when you say you don't use it you'd say like not even like simplest stuff like regressions or are no yeah so i guess if regressions are part of it yeah i will use like regressions and okay different things like that but not like any kind of you know neural box stuff white box kind of that stuff if that's what he's referring to i assume yeah there's the whole like linear regression is machine learning which i'm on board with but you know like i think people now just talk about it as black like it's it's like proxy for just saying like black box yeah yeah but he asks about clogged code i curious because you do you have talked a lot about lm so he says we're using coding tools such as clogged code if yes what's been your experience with them so far and any any tips and tricks um one i think that the clause is like a step above every other one um kind of by a significant margin um 100% agree and i think that yeah basically like i don't know if i could do any of the coding stuff that i need to do if it wasn't for llm's i think they've been like a fantastic like have helped people who have thought they've kind of leveled the playing field people that couldn't maybe program as well and kind of had it kind of reach out to everyone so yeah i'm using them a ton i think that they're incredible um and basically as bullish on those as you can be have either of you tried codex like like open a eyes version no i use cursor basically everything is through cursor um okay and i basically have now switched to using like some actual just clogged code in the terminal but for the most part everything is in cursor i've personally been impressed i've used i've used a little bit of both i've personally i can't say at this point with with what i've used but i've personally been impressed with the codex as well but not saying okay but you think we can get a cloud code i've been impressed with both to be honest and like there's nothing i've done where i'm like i've not a and b tested it where like this worked well on this and this didn't work well i've just used it for different reasons but um yeah i think i think honestly for most of what people would do um any of those like sort of like i think the big jump is going from something that can like look at the files on your computer absolutely right yeah like that is the huge jump i just say you know what go for it take a look at whatever you want i have it on like it has to request and then every single time i go accept like don't even think like oh it makes me feel better although it did like delete every single one of like uh accounting dashboard i was redoing and it it like misunderstood reset and restart and like deleted everything i was like well that's a good lesson you know maybe back to support it did you tweet that because i feel like i saw that i was like i think i might need to change my behavior yeah yep it happened i didn't go right at night i like had it all like this entire thing like basically set up and was like need to make a small change needed to reset the like i don't know i that's an example of like you got to wait on i needed to wait on my partner who's like is more skilled in that stuff um so i can ask him so i don't fuck it all up then spent the rest of saturday just you know snipping bets all right next next question uh from zack what is the most exotic market you've bet on uh you bet that's that's the first question and then i am curious you know this this is we we won't have a we won't have an episode this is our official super bowl show i guess oh yeah so i'm gonna put that in the description and then people are gonna be listening like they'll be waiting for for the shoes they're like i know they like to go long but this is a really long way to get into the super bowl side you you have to that that that can be your in that could be the intro too you know clip something from this super bowl discussion so they think it's coming um so but i i guess maybe let's let's hit the first question then i'm curious if you're like what you do or don't do for the super bowl but let's let's start with a good exotic market you bet um man uh i bet i know the the astronomer CEO i won a decent chunk on him to get fired um back when like it was really the first days of cows here whatever um to be fired before the weekend or before the end of the month or something like that um that was probably like one of the dumbest ones uh the hot dog contest i bet a decent amount on um like one of my favorite ever wins was uh the pro bowl was up at uh say and they like they were taking pretty decent limits on it and the pro bowl changed their scoring format so like i was just like quadruple checking like and like none of the pro bowl pressers are serious obviously they're like oh it's you know sponsored by a new thing and like none of them are like serious at all so i'm like trying to read like the most in depth like please do they have the same scoring as last year do they have the same scoring and like nobody's taking the seriously um obviously and i ended up with a decent position on the over um and like watching that game and watching nobody give a shit and like i'm just living and dying as every single like fucking Eli Manning's like joking around i'm like stop pay attention like let's get going here um so yeah that was probably like one of my favorites was the over in the pro bowl game because they changed the scoring output of it um in the way they were keeping kept about score or whatever i love that i mean you definitely cared the most out of anybody involved in the game oh yeah do you think a single person bet on the under in the pro bowl guy like i can't even imagine what the what type of person is like locking into the pro bowl to bet the under yeah it's funny that they even offer that like who who in their right mind would bet that yeah and then bet online put it up and like they put it on like low but it was like $250 limited and i was just like betting into my auto until i was like am i really gonna bet until like a minus 185 like on the super bowl on this pro bowl thing like because like they just were letting the auto go they don't give a shit to readjust the line like who gives a shit and it was just me like oh actually i've done the work this is way off i feel like the all-star games probals all stuff like that you know they're the most right-home or rule of changes so there's like a lot yeah at home in Derby there's always there's like a bunch of good stories about all those all the time uh let's go to those kind of areas to attack too those are like the perfect like when we talk about small data problems those are like the perfect of like what the fuck does this mean nobody knows like you gotta go ahead and try to put a number on it well i was that the like biggest kind of like one of our first like really big like losses was the mahogas like Kelsey's curry whatever golf match and they've literally didn't even release the rules of the match until like 10 minutes before but they're taking big limits and we just had like this if they release it as like this we will bet that so we're just sitting there and on the broadcast they're like oh yeah it's like a scramble and i'm like okay like just start like texting a million people like it's a scramble it's just like so stupid all right what about what about super bowl props is this like a big part of what you do so easy this week yeah not really um i used to do it a little bit um but like now because all the books put up uh like almost like all the shit every week like they're actually not price that bad they're used to be you know i go to the south point and they'd have roughing the pass or no at minus 150 and you'd be like okay you know how much can i get down on it um i would say part of it is just there's enough stuff in mba to keep me busy that i probably shouldn't go into it i'll probably end up like deep diving bets and stuff i would say in general if you're going to do super bowl props try to get stuff that isn't offered each game that can't be formulaically priced um and then for this year i would probably focus on kicking uh just because of the new balls and all the rules around that um so that would be like the areas i would attack but it probably going to be too lazy to do it i think that's a great piece of advice to to go after the props that um are not offered yeah i actually have a decent amount on drake to not perform so if drake comes out i'm going to be pretty upset that would be like you know the one thing is that like 92 percent if drake comes out is a secondary act after you got called a pedophile for an entire uh entire half-time show then you know then i lose all respect for drake it will be done but that's what i'd be going to a uh super bowl party or anything um probably i think that uh my one friend has people over every year i actually have a decent position uh you know pre-flop of JSN to win super bowl MVP so i'll be watching pretty closely with that um we'll see how i if i'm gonna try to you know hedge or try to buy any other positions regarding that but like yeah that was kind of my pre-flop position guys thinking just because it'll be so it's like so funny like you're there the half-time show comes on someone's like oh drake i love drake you're just like dying and just just just switch it to the alternate half-time show i'm sure he won't be on that one the uh the tp usa the turning point i'm sure there'll be a mention on that i don't i don't think he's gonna come up there with kid rock so i think uh you know just just read the rules and maybe you can uh you can use that one yeah i'll just all email couch and be like i thought you were talking about the turning point you're saying like true americans what the hell is the point of y'all Danny trump jr if you weren't going to use the turning point usa broadcast not sure that he takes that i could take kindly to that uh next you you want to read the next one cheaply well do you want to you want to make up a name or you want to make up a name or you want to is how in the correction it just says satisfy so let's let's go with that in in my oh yeah true satan's and wrong satan put it in wrong yeah so you actually put it in wrong but you could read the question okay so i'll put your name in wrong again um do you guys use a your phone or computer place bets on wreck book uh wondering if books would take device data into account for for a limited uh i don't want to answer the first one um by the second one they do take device data into account some some of the books do at least so uh i would say that is something that they account for um and no comment on the first i always just use p1s only because uh i would never break terms of service of course and as we we do not do that um and then he had a he had a second question about scraping so how do you know how to screw pods from a site uh with you have to lie in yeah yeah uh i this is a really simple one what you do is you um hire someone and tell them do do it and then you say gram why aren't these in the you know the file and then that's basically how i deal with it so that's what uh i would suggest for him yeah i i would suggest i i also suggest that like this is a uh this is a specialist question i would say that basically like i think that for the most part like unless you're really getting into some really like obscure markets for the most part like you can get stuff from like odds api and stuff like that you know i'm with sp no i'm team anti backtest um uh so i like basically everything that i've ever that has been just start betting and you know see how you do from there so like i'm not the person to ask as far as uh like scraping stuff but like i just can't imagine like if the market is not on uh easily accessible odds then like you should be able to be out scraping that old odds would be my like you should be able to go in market agnostic come up with the number that's better than the number they have yes but you are forgetting that golf exists and that golf is on no odds api or anything like that oh so that's tough yet i i guess i haven't been you know you know i thought i was in the bullshit market i forgot that golf exists is this um no but i never scraped i guess odds at uh high level so i think that like trying to build your model without previous odds is the best way that i found like i's a serious note um and then like if you go in without the odds and then like you start mapping it forward using odds that you're kind of testing against that probably like i wouldn't rely too much on historical odds but you know that's probably just biased towards the way i see things the other thing i was going to mention is it can't be that far off where you can just tell the AI to go look at this site and give me a data set right like i think we talked about like some of the computer vision stuff at one of the episodes like this is a the most simple version of computer vision or whatever to just like scrape stuff so i i imagined that i tried something like this and it didn't work and it could be a me issue but um i think it's going to be pretty quick so yeah i do think that there are some weird stuff with uh sportsbook because they have like the legality aspect of it i think it's harder to kind of get access to those than it is others so like i think that there probably is something like being logged in yeah maybe you need to be logged in so yeah now basically LLMs can scrape everything like that's been the one true like LLMs if conquered is scraping like they just are beast at it and you just say give me this data and they can find it usually uh without too much issue all right we gotta go to Clarke's question and he threatened he threatened me he said that if his questions are not asked he will never ask another question again and he proposed three ridiculous questions so like he really backed us into a corner um okay Clarke's question number one hypothetical but also not a hypothetical your model has Ohio State minus six the market is minus nine point five walk me through your mental gymnastics that turn that into a buck ice bat every single time funny enough like i didn't have other than like saying hysmann um i really didn't have any issue positions this year i really like cars has turned this of course into you know whatever mental gymnastics he has to make this make sense um but he always uh it gives me shit for saying that i've been on the buck ice every time um he does the same because i also uh like the calves last year so his statement is that uh you know i kind of weighed about on the buck ice i think the saying one actually uh was a pretty interesting like problem i faced so saying my entire bet was basically indiana is going to be an underdog at uh versus Ohio State in the big ten championship mendoza is going off at like minus odds to be the hysmann favorite that didn't make sense to me so like as we got to the game uh they went and basically mendoza hysmann odds were equal to uh like indiana's money line was like he won the game he was going to be the hysmann um so i wondered like in hindsight with all the kind of like at that point is it plus ev probably for me to sell my position i would guess and i just was kind of stuck in the old way like without exchanges like okay this is my position hedging his minus ev i don't want to do it but now with exchanges it's like okay the bet that i made was that his odds would go down before the big ten championship once we get to that game i have no edge right so i probably should have sold off kind of at that spot and i did take indiana money line i'm like a couple wreck books and honestly didn't take it more just out of operations mismanagement not getting like funds into the accounts that i wanted to take it at at the right time and like that kind of end but like i think with exchanges now if you're like it kind of changes the equation as far as like hedging quote unquote like at that point i probably should have sold off my risk um because i no longer had an edge makes those sense of me at honest i i thought the same point and when you were talking about your jsn um MVP like i don't know what the thesis like because i think you captured the the calculus you need to be doing 100 percent is like at this point do i have an edge to the market and like the old way would be almost there's there's there's not a cost effective way to get out of this even if i don't have an edge of the market today there's like much more of an opportunity to get out at the market and so the i think it it proves betters to be asking like at this point do i actually have a edge and if you thought you know going into the big 10 title that is it was perfectly correlated with sort of like the the money line like you had said uh yeah that that makes sense to me and curious like do if that if that changes anything with your your jsn thoughts or whatnot yeah no theoretically completely should and yet find myself but something no no uh jsn um i know uh some people that still think like it's a decent bet as is so like i was you know and they probably still have an edge on market based on everything that they have so and it's like it's not so efficient that like the other one since it lined up so perfectly with indiana money line like you know i'm not beating college football 100k limit at post right it's like super bowl MVP is that market so efficient that i don't think that i still have an edge maybe maybe not but yeah i probably like theoretically if you're talking about it it would make sense like my edge where i thought i was gaining the edge is not like what i have right now so should i sell off kind of i think it's an interesting question for like if your college football event like when it gets down to one cent on each side like theoretically could you argue that if your goal was to beat the closing line you should it sell off every single game right at post like in i don't know it'll be interesting like with these exchanges they continue how different people who aren't brought up in the world that hedge bad like how they approach it well yeah i mean i think if you're top-down better like you sort of should be uh i mean the other part about this that matters is like that bet size right um it changes the math a little bit like the size of your your bankroll and everything you stand to win or lose but um yeah i mean i think for an originator it makes sense to hold a bet through the close because you might think you have an edge at the close which it would be the sort of the situation in this jsn but otherwise yeah you just take your you can you know people always complain about not being able to eat their CLV i think for the first time a lot of people actually can eat their CLV yeah exactly uh okay well hit his third question just to get him off our case and then we'll go on to his his friend uh if you worked back test how much of your edges independently identified versus inherited from Steve physics framework uh everything i do is after Steve physics okay um the only man that i've seen actually like seriously reprieved to uh rufus with his uh x-ray credentials i'm an fsa actuary so ever since he did that oh my lord that's uh he's been my idol and i kind of shoot to be phasic more like phasic every single day that's unreal that's alpha behavior that's taking that that's taking no i passed multiple exams years ago so so you you're fucking wrong bro um okay fluff we ask his his uh you know spending time trolling or whatever uh his pot calling the kettle black question we'll we'll call it and then he has a serious question uh what percent of your volume do you okay after it because what percent of his volume does he bet the flop my god your spell you learn how to write a sentence okay what percent of his volume does he that does he have a fair value does he have a fair close what the enough that you would feel close to my bets when i bet both sides like do i come up with a number and i would bet either side base on it or am i like going on one side and basically directionally betting off yeah okay that makes sense thanks so basically for college football i run the number and like if it comes up on like whatever side it comes up on you know if very rarely am i within a number in the number moves to the other side like that almost would never happen and if it does move to the other side of my number uh it would move late enough that i want to feel comfortable kind of fading that action in terms of like uh do i go in knowing what side i'm gonna bet for college football know for NBA most of the time yeah to be honest like i kind of know um i want to bet this side and i'll look at it and it will either be am i not gonna bet it or am i going to bet it like it's not basically like very rarely am i looking at a player and i don't know if i'm gonna take his over or his under like i already know like i want the under here okay actually it's priced right and i don't bet it um as i get more and more into betting uh easier stuff i it's like you're going in knowing what side you're going in um and very rarely like if you're betting into a high hold uh market then very rarely what i'd be willing to bet either side um and if it's a low hold college football much more likely yeah that makes that that makes a lot of sense um okay we got to hit haggrens which like this is kind of some mr. peanut butter lore here this was one of my you got a lot of good moments on twitter but haggren asks what's the status of the water delivery so if you if you follow mr mr. peanut better on twitter there was a period where you're having a standoff with the water delivery company who was delivering water to the previous occupant of your apartment correct correct yeah so i actually looked at and had like bookmarked in amazon water i almost got like a water cooler delivery thing to i was like they had so many jugs delivered like at this point that card is probably more expensive and uh storm uh a lot of people probably know he said that he had one he like highly recommended i was like all right you know i'm fuck it i'm gonna go ahead and buy the cooler um and like within a couple days of me looking at it on amazon i just got a knock on my door and the guy asked me he goes hey you know why aren't you taking these hands i said uh no i i don't i didn't order them i don't have a way to drink this water and basically they came and they like picked all of them up and now they're gone so i kind of wish i would have pounced on it when i had the chance that's a you know that's a lesson maybe we can take in the bed and when you have an edge go ahead and bed it when you have water jugs at your door go ahead and buy the cooler so that what you can drink from them or at least bring them inside so you have the option yeah well there's a lot of jugs it's a two-bedroom apartment you know that's true that's true that's gonna be a lot of storage space uh well haggernasse so i mean the the other question haggernasse was can he swing by and pick him up so that's a no they're gone um and then he asked what made him decide to go from why to go from widely known as best new gambling x account in 2024 to tweeting like zodiac underscore mf in 2025 so i don't know who zodiac underscore mf is but like i broadly understand his question yeah i think he doesn't like the all caps um you know stolen from redacted gambler for um i will say probably my tweets have gotten worse on the fact that once you start on twitter i like you know i'm tweeting out questions into the world that now i just talking group chats with people on um you know i think that kind of happens a lot where it's like oh you know you didn't know as many people then as you start to know more people you just talking group chat and i probably sent out group chat messages that used to be tweets that i would ask to the world that i now just ask the people like directly so yeah they're probably as a shelf life that you're you know it's like a you know any kind of musical artist where you start off hot and then you slowly go downhill um and you twitter account well your best when i told you that i was like i really like that you said that on about the process because it was just such a obvious take that i was basically saying when you said on about the process like you talked about that exact uh cycle of musical artists go so you're very funded that i applaud you for that take i just didn't think it was that like of my take i don't i think that most people like kind of i felt it was kind of a well-known thing it's like this the pigeon quote is the other one that people are like oh great quotes like i didn't come up with that it's like my most insightful things are just stolen from other people so maybe that's a tough break for me you're a you're a top-down uh quarter i guess top-down takes man well maybe you have so i mean that's the perfect you're such a pro man you're just the perfect roll-in to the final thing so we we'd usually do the basing update and the hot takes so you've now set an exchange rate between the two you said i have no basing updates but i have three hot takes so now we know that a basing update is worth exactly two hot takes for future's guess yeah i think it's important i don't get anything wrong so there's no reason to update i can point out where everybody else is wrong so that's why i have so many hot takes because i actually have to get the truth out this makes sense this makes a lot of sense why don't you fire off the first one okay i think that the my one hot take is that the gambling spaces gets known as like oh my god this is a tough industry as far as like people in it and untrustworthiness i think that gamblers are crazy much much more trustworthy generally um then like most professions or industries and that the reason we think everybody isn't is because we operate in such a high trust environment that it would be generally insane for most people to think about like an example for this is so my brother came in um he's an accountant and he was helping us uh do some of our accounting stuff and i have uh that with someone and it's uh you know decent chunk of change and i he was like okay you know how do you know like they're going to pay this like do you work with them often i go oh no like we don't really work together we don't do fellows together i was like but like it's a hundred percent like they're not gonna not pay it and he's like okay but like how do you know like you don't ever interact with them they could theoretically do it and i was like like dude we chat all the time he's like okay like you know most businesses don't just have like you know ten k out to somebody because oh you chat like that's not a normal industry like industry for that to exist in our industry is only because there's high trust between everyone and because like basically if you ever screw someone over like it affects you so badly that like it gets known i think that like actually we operate in such a high trust environment that it's underrated and kind of it just what we consider normal is not normal in most industries you know they they've falls into i never really thought about that but it does fall into the a series of takes we've discussed recently where i feel like the gambling world doesn't they lose connective the real world because you're but you're exactly right like you know like people who don't pay on time or would ever get shamed in the gambling world like people who don't do stuff on time in like the real world that's just like another monday right like yeah just like and sing like uh you know uh well man of the big gets like docks and attacked and stuff for like for still paying everyone that you hold you just paid them late and it's like in the regular world like people pay late all the fucking time like this is like there's just people on trust on word old people huge sums of money and it's just taken for granted and i think that actually if you looked at it from an outsider's perspective you'd be like wait you have how much on credit with who because you talked online a few times like that's insane but i think that actually everyone's like oh because we operate with such a high trust environment there's so many opportunities for fraud that it's honestly amazing there isn't more of it i think it's i think it's spot on i i felt that when i like started in poker like you could just yeah you'd just be sending like thousands of dollars to people you met over the internet but like you really never you were like yeah i'm that they're good like it wasn't even a question and you tell that to somebody and they're like like anytime you bring anybody into your business from non gambling it's exactly like Mike said they're like wait like are you serious like we got to go like bug them we got to go ask them about this or that it's like no no no don't don't bug them like and it's so much that like you don't even consider it like i didn't want it even cons like until he brought it up i like i didn't even think of it as possibly not being paid i just was like of course like i chat with this guy i'm telling him like clearly he's gonna pay like why wouldn't he and and you're like and it's like who is it it's like uh you know i don't know it's like profile pictures like a sloth and he's like he's like what's guy you have he's like it looks like uh i think parentheses were brown photo all of those are some money i was like oh yeah yeah yeah he's good for it don't worry about it all right that's a good good first one why don't you why don't you rattle off number two okay yeah sorry i'm going uh trying to make this pod even longer somehow so uh he's expanded more we're a good time we just we just produce it two hour two hour we're good um i think that people vastly vastly under share information on twitter um not only on twitter but in telegram and stuff and i think a lot of it is back from you know sports betting used to be a lot more me versus you when it was a market and it was like you know sharp books and you were competing versus one another at the high stakes the more that it gets into soft books it really is like you know the old like everybody used to mock them like us versus the books like that kind of cornering as like but there is some truth to it now and everybody everybody remembers the time that they leaked in the hatred the times that they've lost value because they've given up information but i think it's much harder to value or to judge how much you lose by not talking so it's like an unmeasurable you can't put a numb you know how do you judge something that doesn't exist but if you aren't just talking all the time and sharing information with others then there's just basically like we're playing this you know multi-person game anytime if me and you share information even if you like get more information from me than i get from you we both are gaining versus the other participants in the pool and i don't know i just think that it's because it's so hard to judge what you lose when you don't talk with one another that people vastly vastly underrate how much like you gain from just talking with one another and telling people about different information stuff you find interesting etc so i'm sure there's you think there's a line here like what can you give an example to like you know the listeners what would be something good to share and what would be something like that's too far and bad to share i would i guess i don't like when we're talking about bad like i would wonder if you're talking with somebody pretty close if like the line is so much farther like as far as bad then like i think almost that like the line of what is bad and you're sharing too much might be way way farther than we think like maybe if you like if i was in the chat with five people and i just put oh i'm playing this today i'm playing this i'm playing this and like just shot them information people are going to react and like okay maybe they'll catch on to your process and do some things but like i think that just the line of what you should share versus what you should it is way farther i'm trying to think of maybe i would say a specific angle that you're attacking like if you're like hey i think that you know uh let's say the old days of like in baseball where nobody had bear my bear metric pressure right like they didn't take into that account very well like sharing that that specific angle would be bad but like other than specific angles in like very unique processes i would guess that like the line is much more on just talking talk about shit and you're more likely to run into info then you are to like give it up way one of the things you said that i'm curious your perspective on this too you said like in a group of like five people do you think the the the the audience for this type of thing matters like are you talking like smaller group are you talking because you know we've talked a little bit about this on the podcast and you shared something similar about like how you started just in your words i think said talking shit on twitter to sort of meet people i i don't you know necessarily know if i go straight to talking shit but i think one of the things i said last last episode is just like interacting on twitter and saying things and being observed to say smart things is like one of the best ways so do you how do you view like the the audience size with this yeah i mean ideally the best is if you are talking to a group chat of people that you like that similar stuff and you can talk to and you can trust but honestly if you don't know people i would say like put it into the twitter sphere be like okay like especially any opinions about like players or you think hey like this player is consistently being underrated here something like that i think that like putting it on twitter probably isn't the worst information i think people really overrate how much putting one thing on twitter is going to like fucking blow up a market and you'll never get that edge back it's like you can always come up with more edges like if it's just individual specific circumstances and there's also something where people are like you know they i think they are like you want to share information but only if you're getting something back and it's like that's not how people interact nobody is like hey i have a piece of information that may be valuable to you would you like to share some information with me like that's just not how people interact they just you just kind of got to say shit um if you don't have connections i would say like putting your opinions on twitter is like it's smart and i think what use it was very good about like replying to people and like trying to interact and being like you know get a conversation going but like yeah i think that ideally you want to share it with like a group of people who are betting similar to you similar state similar markets um but if not like just put it on twitter i think is honestly like people are vastly underrating sharing information on twitter yeah and i guess the other thing i would just say is if if you don't have that smaller group to share these things with that probably means you're you know less well connected or less well established or whatever and that means the mark like the cost of sharing this is less like if if you're someone who has no network or connections the the value you gain from knowing something is less than if you have a lot of connections and so the calculus should be like i actually might get far more than just like sharing this out like whenever like an edge is is shared like people attack them but if this is like truly a person who's been in sports betting for like a month or something like i would make the argument by far the best thing is to like share it and get like a bunch of views and get a bunch of people like in there you know so it's better than anymore like you should be like hey i bet this i can't get anymore down here's what i bet like it's very bad for like people who are betting it for you to say that and they'll yell at you but they'll be like okay this guy smart he knows you're doing you found an edge like if you can't get anymore down then it's on the people if you tweet something like that then it's kind of on the people who are betting it to kind of loop you in and make it so that it's not worth your while for you to do that so yeah i think that like like you said if you don't have a group where you can talk about it you're like you tweeting it people just aren't going to be like oh my god random twitter account said what like i joked about like talk and shit but i think a lot of like value i found networking was just like me giving my opinion hey i think that this is uh you know i talked about Kirk Evans the other time i started talking to him because he was like hey i think that Steph Curry versus Sabrina or uh Sabrina i and ask you they were like having a three point contest it's like i think Sabrina is underrated because of blank blank so like that kind of thought process is how you start talking to people and chatting with people like i think that people if you are if you can't bet it anymore you probably are better off like sharing your opinion about it okay two two two two good ones let's let's let's hit the uh the third i think that some of these dumbass vagus nose uh you know rat line i think that there's some truth to these like i think that there is they don't knowingly know it but like if you say vagus nose is that not just an unsophisticated way of saying efficient market hypothesis uh if you say rat line is that not i don't know what i'm missing in this equation and what am i not accounting for i need to stay away i think that people kind of sense these things and they like yeah the phrasing is stupid but i think that those actually like are a instinctual they come from an instinctually smart place i like that one they probably do set up natural defense mechanisms right because like if someone if someone truly thinks like vagus nose i mean the problem i guess the problem is these people like if they actually thought that they wouldn't bet but the problem is they bet and they say and then after the fact that like uh vagus nose right that annoys me the most is when someone's like well technically they're in Costa Rica like it's not actually like a congrats door and you have a map too like i get it like they're not in vagus but the general idea of vagus or the books don't know it's actually better to put the lines in place like okay but you know the line is a reflection of those better so like i think that sometimes that they have like some kind of sense in those even if they say it in the most unsophisticated way possible but it also could just be they're gonna lock you too so yeah i reject it i think it's vagus made the call and that they're actually making the call to ruin your parlay i think that's that's actually what i meant vagus makes a call those people are smart because they i actually see the big picture exactly exactly okay we don't have last guess we had we had uh you know in support of the voids and how we're having the vagus nose we just i don't know what the next evolution of uh of our hot takes but we are i don't know if we're trending in the right direction here in gps i just i knew that gp was gonna agree with whatever i said as soon as i like came in he was gonna you know eventually you know live into the public of pressure so i was trying to see how how how far i could go i there's no limit i will just agree with you and take us off limits for him yeah do you want a Bayesian update i have one briefly i know i i don't have one this week's one you give one and close it i'll give this one because okay so i i was big on like order delivery it's like a really good way to save time uh my delivery i mean like get like i don't know like kava or chipotle or something that's like somewhat healthy i guess but i've recently like spent a little more time uh getting like like home like cooking a little bit more and while it's like slightly less time efficient it's if you're like cooking a meal that can be had for lunch it's just so much better like like it's just like it just makes your your day a lot better i think like you get something back there that's like a little intangible so i'm moving away from ruthless efficiency to like a little bit of uh enjoyment from cooking and and home home cook meals getting your hands in the dirt starting to go back exactly i don't know that molten asking you just you know he hangs out with me eventually he's gonna he's gonna totally get off the screen and and and live like the the common man that that i am that you are good to see exactly that's right we're known as a blue collar podcast um well okay so we hit two you know two eleven i don't know if that's a record but it's pretty solid that's a good performance um yeah so i mean any any last any last uh comments for the listeners like they i think people know where they can find you mr. peanut better on twitter um you're on friday's at circles off that you know where wherever you watch your podcasts um but yeah anything for the uh anything for the audience no that's all i have i'm i'm done though all right that sounds that sounds good well you know we obviously appreciate you coming on very elite uh truly like one of my favorite gambling twitter accounts i even like the redacted gambler turn you've taken i think it's just quite good so i disagree with haggren there i guess that's my hot take but uh yeah thanks for coming on the show and um everybody thanks for all the good questions thanks for listening and we will see you on the next episode