Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for the Second Half! (7/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

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For more information, visit Kelly Bluebook's KBB.com. Toyota brand average resale value is 53%, versus the average vehicle at 45%. Toyota, let's go places. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC - "FRIEND CURT OF SIPS, I'M CAUNON JOW"] Now let's get out with the show. Happy CURT OF O'FRIEND A and welcome in to Fantasy Vs Ball today on July 17th. I am Frank Samful, joined by Scott White and Chris Towers. Today on the show, we have sleepers, breakouts, and busts for the second half, but first. Baseball is back and the Mets defeated the Phillies. 4 to 1. So we will start there. I've got some news and notes and stuff, and then we'll get into the sleepers a little bit later on. But the biggest news of this game was that Juan so-toe left in the eighth inning with left cash soreness. The good news is that it's not the same calf that he dealt with earlier in the season. And after the game, he said he expects to return to the lineup on Saturday. The Mets and Phillies do not play on Friday. I guess that was like a whatever. In case this game got rained out, they would play on Friday. But I guess all good for now. Let's hope so does all right. That's like a dude right now across those fingers, baby. Other news from this game. Boba Shett was back in the lineup after missing the final three games before the break with General Leg and ankle soreness. The Mets reinstated Marcus Simeon from the I.L. And before getting hurt, he was hitting 214 with Nine Homer six deals in 80 games, 43% roster. Do you guys have any interest in Marcus Simeon? I think second base is strong enough that I don't really have much interest here. Yep. All right, for the actual game, Chris, yeah boy, Francis Galauarez, two for three with a walk and a double dong. And in 28 games since returning from the I.L. He's hitting 280 with seven homers, 14 RBI, 90 mile per hour average EV, 14% barrel rate. He is 43% rostered. I think he's kind of on that fringe in a one catcher league. Obviously should be a roster in two catcher leagues, but he's basically the same roster rate as Kyle Teal. He's lower than Alejandro Kirk and Dalton rushing. He's way below Salvador Perez. I don't know. Would you take Alvarez over all those names, Teal Kirk rushing Salvi? I would take him over all those guys. Yeah, I think it's somewhat close. I think Teal and Alvarez, they're similar potential. Teal, the shape of the production will likely be different, but I think they're both top 12 potential guys. But yeah, I would rather have Alvarez than any of the other guys that were mentioned there. Yeah. Scott, what do you think Alvarez over Teal Kirk rushing Salvador Perez at this point? Well, I want to put them all in the same category. I think Rush, I'm sorry. I was thinking Rushman. Rushing is a different case. Yes, rushing would be in the same category with all of these players. And I think the distinctions between them aren't clear enough that you should side against the guy who just had a two-homer game. Like I think it's that thin of a margin. OK. Yeah, they had a huge game. Maybe he's about to take off. Certainly the upsides there for Francisco Alvarez. So let's put him number one. All right. On the pitching side of this game, Christian Scott was great. Five and two-thirds shut out innings. Seven strike outs to zero walks. He had 12 swinging strikes on 79 pitches. In this one, his velocity was up fastball. 0.7 miles per hour. The sweeper was up one. The cutter up nearly two miles per hour. And he used more cutters and curves in this game than he usually does. But the four seam in the sweeper are typically his bread and butter. They were still really, really good in this start. The problem for Christian Scott is that he has not completed six innings all season. And I believe he missed all of last year, if not most of last year with an injury. So they're probably not going to push him too hard in terms of like pitches per star and innings per star. But when he's pitched, he's actually been pretty good to 87 ERA 122 Whip. Nearly 11 K per nine. Big focus of today's show. Sleepers and breakouts for the second half. Christian Scott very well could be a sleeper in second half. I think it mostly just comes down to how well they are to give him a little more rain. Because this is only, I believe, the third time he's even pitched into the sixth inning this season. It's been, I believe, two previous five and two thirds innings, five and two thirds in this one. I think he's pretty good. But as long as they're handling him with this kind of caution, I think it's probably going to be a pretty limited appeal for fantasy. But you know what? I don't know that it's all like the meds handling Christian Scott with caution. You just mentioned, Frankie has 11 K per nine. He's also right about it, four walks per nine. And you look at the pitch count per star. He's top 90 several times with the pitch count. So I think part of it is just Christian Scott with all those strikeouts, with all those walks has been very inefficient. That's a fair point, yeah. So that is a concern too. Is he going to throw strikes with enough consistency to allow himself to pitch deeper into starts and also to avoid the trouble that comes with issuing four walks per nine? I will say he was mentioned as one of only five players that they're not willing to trade. So they like him a lot. Yeah, yeah, that's a case. Sure sounds that way. And it will point out in terms of the walks. I mean, it is what it is. It's right near four walks per nine. Five of those came in his first start of the season when he recorded just four outs outside of that start. He has allowed more than two walks in just two of the next 12 starts. So not a lot of foreening starts. Seven ends up being a high walk rate. So what size leagues? I mean, if any, do you would you look to add or roster, Christian Scott? He's on the fringes of 12, I don't think he's must add, but like if you're looking for a pitcher and all the E and C more types have already been picked up, I think Scott is on the in the next year. All right, let's hit some news and notes before we get into the sleepers breakouts and boss, we did get some Dodgers updates, Tyler Glass down through a bullpen last weekend. He has not pitched since May due to back spasms, but slowly working his way back, both him and Blake's. Now I believe snail throwing a rehab start this weekend. So he's a little bit ahead of where Tyler Glass now is. Dave Roberts said that while he expects Will Smith to play again this season, he has no idea when it will happen. Smith has been dealing with a neck issue since the middle of June. So yeah, we're right around a month missed here for Will Smith. It's good news for Dalton rushing who should continue to play nearly every day for the Dodgers. I do want to point out I saw it with regards to Blake. Now he's expected to need four or five rehab starts. So probably early August. Yeah, I would think second week of August, if it's four, could be third week if it's five, but that was the one thing I saw. He's not moving quite as quickly as Tariq Scoobal did for obvious reasons. The Dodgers don't need him as badly as the Tigers needed Tariq Scoobal. Yeah. I don't know that this is much of a conspiracy theory as it just makes sense for the Dodgers to do, but how much of this do you think is just baked into their plan going into the season like, hey, snow and glass now, you know, like if any little thing pops up or even if it doesn't, we're just going to let you sit out for four months, just be back in August and get ready for the playoffs. I don't even that was the plan with Blake. Now entering the season. Yeah, I don't I don't even think it's like a secret. I mean, it's not something they're bringing up every time the media asked them about Blake's now, but I mean, there's definitely been for a few years now with the Dodgers, a sentiment of, well, we need a healthy, when it matters most. And so they have they have the luxury of giving him all the time he needs plus a month, you know? Jacob DeGrom is tentatively lined up to start Sunday. He missed his final start before the break due to a left glute strain. Adam McAlvy who covers the Brewers for MLB.com. Believe. that the brewers are quote, going to require some creativity in the coming months around Jacob Mizierowski's workload. So the Miz got up to 141 and a third total innings last year between the minors, the majors, and the postseason. He's currently at 111. I don't know that I fully agree that he needs to, you know, be kind of, babyed or, you know, cautiously approached in the second half. I mean, maybe that's what the brewers are telling him or whatever he hears or sees behind the scenes. But based on his workload last year, I don't really see why that would have to happen. But it may be because they're anticipating a deep playoff run. I mean, who knows what happens with the playoff star, but you would, you, it wouldn't be a shock if the brewers had a deep postseason run. And Mizierowski, you know, maybe they're just kind of game planning for that and how hard they're going to have to ride him to potentially win the World Series. And they want to make sure his innings are available when it matters most. So just in terms of just counting it, I agree with you, Frank, but it may be a little bit of strategizing for the postseason. So with the arm fatigue and now the creativity with the Miz's workload in the second half, I like, do you guys bump them down a little bit? Rest of season, I know we just did our redraft and the Miz was our SP one in that draft yesterday. But I have more like SP five, the rest of the season, just because of some of those concerns. I think it's reasonable. But he feels like so clearly the best pitcher. Yeah. And unless we're going to do what the White Sox did with Garak Roshet a couple years ago, where it's like three or four innings every start in the second half, I, I don't know. I'm inclined to keep Miz Rowski, Rowski number one for now. There are also, you know, you look at the other high end pitchers. Okay, Christopher Shans has, he's a horse. He's going to throw a ton of innings. Terracco will probably will, but he hasn't been so far. It's been like five innings almost every time since he came back. I mean, they're letting him go deep. I do wonder if that's some point they have to have the conversations that the brewers are apparently having about Miz Rowski because he was around 150 last year, I think. It was, it was over 160 if you include the post. It was a little cushion over what Miz Rowski has, but you know, it's reasonable for the Yankees to anticipate a deep playoff run too. Skeen's has never been a huge innings guy. He's a decent innings guy, but he's not a 200 innings guy. I'm a modus in a six man rotation. So that limits his innings. Chris sales innings have been really limited. You know, who are you going to, if you're going to bump Jacob Miz Rowski down for workload concerns, who are you moving ahead of him? Okay, maybe Christopher Sanch has. I think that's kind of it though for me. And I just think Miz Rowski's better. Zach Wheeler? I mean, if we're talking about potential injury risk, the 36 year old who just had surgery, probably carries some injury risk. I know he's been amazing and we don't want to talk about that, but I just, I don't know. Like there's not, I don't want to say there's no smoke here with Jacob Miz Rowski to be concerned about in the second half. It's not billowing, you know, it's a very, very light amount of smoke. You could always find something to worry about with the starting pitcher. Yeah, you know, Christopher Sanch has this 120 whip. Yeah. Yeah. True. And he was his three worst outings have come consecutively right here. Like the last time we saw him, he was getting, he was the only pitcher who struggled in the all-star game. So, you know, I think Christopher Sanch is fine. It's, I'm just saying, like if you want to worry about Christopher Sanch's, you can find a way to yet another young player signed a big extension chase burns and the reds agreed to a seven year 105 million dollar contract. So, I think good for both parties involved. The Orioles placed Blaze Alexander on the aisle with a fractured left hand. They recalled old friend Christian and Karnasioan strand still just 26 years old. And he was hitting for big power in the minors of season 26619 homers 56 RBI 848 OPS. That also came with a 5% walk rate and a 31% K rate. 2% rostered, ale only leagues. I don't like anything there. I'm not excited about Kobe Mayo either. So, yeah. Yeah. I think it's just ale only leagues. The Dbacks are calling up Tyler Locklear on Friday. He came over from the Mariners last year in the A.U. Haney of Suarez trade. 25 years old. He's been good in the minors this year as well. 309 batting average eight homers, four steals, 881 OPS in 57 games. 2% rostered. I mean, is this the opposite? Is it just like, hey, CES and ale only Tyler Locklear and N only eight home runs in 57 games that triple A Reno. He missed the start of the season. He was coming back from an injury, but yeah, he still has played 57 games. Yeah. It's hard to get excited about that. Yeah. That's fair. The Phillies placed Brad Keller on the aisle with a torn UCL in his right elbow. He will likely miss the rest of the season. The Pirates acquired former top prospect, Robert Hassel from the Nationals in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. Not really sure what to make of this. If it changes anything for fantasy at all, but the NLB outlawed using dugout iPads to access Generative AI and apparently some teams leaned on AI to shape in game strategy. I did see. Of course they do now. Now. Now the Giants makes sense. You know college college is one thing college students, you know, getting AI to write their papers. Like NLB managers are going to outsource the managing to AI. That's that's incredible. Yeah. I saw something that like the Marlins have called pitches from the dugout all season. Yeah, that's that's everything. I don't know if like are they using AI to figure out what what pitch to call next? I don't know. You're absolutely right. We shouldn't have taken your repress out with a perfect game. That's nice. And get ready for a bunch of trade rumors over the next weeks. Chris mentioned this earlier, but apparently the meds have told rival teams. Everyone except one so to know the McLean at Carson Benj, AJ Ewing and Christian Scott are available via trade. Like enough, those names are not updated in your dynasty league. But everyone else, you know, Francisco Lindor, the Lindor thing is would be really hard to do. It's a big contract. He has a partial no trade in there. Obviously, yeah, he's a huge name. There's Boba Shett. There's David Williams, Luke Weaver, Freddie Peralta, so some big names that could be on the move. We'll see. Just a reminder that our next FBT Express episode is coming out on Saturday and that will be covering sleepers and two star pitchers for next week. So Scott and I put out an FBT Express episode on Thursday that was covering the weekend and the long 10 day scoring period. But this is just if you mostly if you play in a road O league where you set your line up this weekend, you'll set it again this upcoming Monday. We will have sleepers and two star pitchers on that episode. And of course, you could check out Scott's articles as well. Let's take that break when we return sleepers breakouts busts for the second half here on fantasy baseball today. [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] Welcome back fantasy baseball today and let's get into some sleepers for the second half of the season. And we're going to give you a hitter and a pitcher each and Scott you are up first. Who are your sleepers for the second half? Of course I'm up first. All right. Sleepers for the second half. My sleeper hitter for the second half is somebody we've already brought up on this podcast and his name is Boba Shett. Boba Shett has had a rough first half 255 batting average 67 OPS but by the stat cast data expected stats he has been one of the biggest underachievers both in terms of slugging expected slugging 52 points he's underachieved by and expecting expected batting average. I think it's about 30 points where he's underachieved. So like he deserves better than he's gotten. We'll start with that for Boba Shett. Even as that was going on I did have a moment's hesitation earlier this season when the idea was raised you know significant leg injury that sideline him for most of the Blue J's deep post season run last year he came back in the World Series had to play second base because of it and we've seen him impacted by leg injuries in the past that was widely blamed for his disappointing 2024. season, a different leg injury, but still. And okay, is he still feeling the after effects of that? That was one idea I was entertaining for a while there, but final 35 games before the All-Star Break. First bad as Boshet's first half was overall. Final 35 games, 331 batting average five home runs, 868 OPS. He already seemed like he's on his way back, and yet he was in such a deep hole that I don't think. I don't think even the person who has him is really appreciating this recent turn around. Plus, he's eligible third base, which is a position where everybody has a need. So, you know, you're struggling to fill third base, you're wondering, "Aggies, who's the best by-located among the many underachievers there?" Austin, Riley, and Michael Garcia, and Alex Braggman, you know, take your pick. I think it's clearly Boshet. That's the one you should pursue, and that is my sleeper hitter for the second half. All right, yeah, I wrote down the same number since the start of June. You know, Boshet has really turned things around. The only thing is like the barrel rate during that stretch is still not great, just because it's like, you know, bad at ball distribution for Boshet. It's still a lot. He's always been more of a line drive hitter, gap-to-gap, kind of doubles guy more than anything else. And obviously, we said this when he signed with the meds, like, City Field just not a great park for his power to play up. But I do think the badting average could be massive and the counting stats in the second half. And maybe he's traded somewhere, even better. I mean, not that, look, as bad as the meds have been, if they stay healthy, he's hitting between Wonsoto and Francis Cullen. Yeah, it's still a really awesome spot to be in, like, AJ Ewing at the top of that line up Carson Benj behind him as well. Like, say, you will about the meds. Their top five or six hitters are still really good. And, and, you know, for top five or six hitters are really good. You have a good lineup. Yeah. Nobody's going to be great one through nine, at least not with the, where the league is right now. Yeah, I think a big reason the meds offense has been where it's been this year is because Boshet hasn't been, Boshet and Francis Cullen Dora hasn't been available. And now, Lendora's available. And I think Boshet's about to be Boshet. So, I think the meds offense as a whole will be depending what they sell off. But it presuming it stays mostly intact. It should be, should be respectable in the second half. All right, who's your sleeper pitcher for the second half? Jared Jones is my sleeper pitcher. Do we mention him on the podcast? I saw people talking about him in the chat. And I think it's, I think anybody who was thinking along those lines is correct. There's only been one good start for Jared Jones since coming back from UCL surgery of the eight. There's been one good one. And it was the final one before the break. And it was six perfect innings. And he struck out eight. And part of me looked at that and said, well, you know, he was facing a brave line up that has been slumping since about the end of May. But I do think if I lean into that, that that does become Homerism because every, every fan of every team thinks their team is the only team that struggles against a pitcher who hasn't been performing well. That is universally how fans feel about their own team. And so I don't want to go down. Every fan thinks their team has a uniquely terrible hard base coach. Yep. Every thinks that their team is uniquely terrible with the bases loaded. Every fan thinks their team's manager is horrible at bullpen management. Every fan, at least back when he was active, every fan base thought their team was the only one that couldn't hit Jamie Moore. So I do think it was legitimately a step forward for Jared Jones in that latest start. And I think the most compelling reason of all, the stuff is clearly there. 14.2% swingy strike rate through the struggles. That would be the seventh best mark if Jones had the innings to qualify directly ahead of chase burns, Jesus, Lazardo, Logan Gilbert and Chris sale. Not having walk issues. I think Jared Jones is really good. And I think we're going to see it in the second half. I think the biggest thing is just do they let him get the pitch count out because that was people were mad about the perfect game and him being pulled after six innings. He threw 77 pitches. He hasn't thrown more than 77 pitches in all about one start. His highest was 81. So it's like, okay, let's say you get like leave him out for the seventh and he goes perfect again. And he's up to let's say 90 pitches where they supposed to just keep letting him go forever. Like this was a situation where it made sense why they pulled him. I understand it was frustrating, but it's also like, but if they weren't going to let him go 80 plus in that start. I hope they will in the second half, but that's the one concern I have. Is it going to be a strict pitch count the rest of the season? That's really hard to do. Especially when you're fighting for a postseason spot like the pirates are, but they haven't shown a willingness to go away from it yet. That's the only concern I have. I agree with the talent is definitely worth chasing. And I think no matter what, it's worth chasing the upside here. Yeah. And I had him down as one of my breakouts for the second half as well for all the reasons you guys have mentioned. He has a 437 ERA, but everything else like 114 whip, 367, 5361 XERA 10K per nine. The ceiling definitely is capped if they don't loosen those rains a little bit here on Jared Jones, but even if they don't, like he can be effective in like a Griffin Jacks kind of way where you know, five innings, one run, six or seven strikeouts, which I understand it's not ideal, but it still could be a productive player for fantasy more so in a road or a categories league because you need more volume and a points league. But yeah, I can still see like again, even if he's limited to around 80 85 pitches. They got to let him go closer to 90 at least because so far 77 75 pitches. That's four innings a lot of the time. Yeah, I mean, he's only even completed five innings twice. So yeah, it's like if we're getting less than five, then that's a problem. Part of it is because he hasn't been pitching. Yeah, he needs to put that well. Right. But he obviously was in the perfect game and they took him out after 77 pitches. I do wonder if it's like an either or thing like, you know, your car's warranty is good for three years or 36,000 miles. Maybe Jared Jones is good for 85 pitches or six innings, whichever comes first, you know. Yeah. All right, Chris, over to you for some sleepers hitting into the second half. Yeah, I'll go with Ryan Walshmit as my sleeper hitter. I know his first stint in the majors was not very good, mostly because he struck out way too much. He struck out 34% of the time for a guy who's probably not going to be a great power hitter. That's too much. But I still think there's a lot to like here. I think the talent level for Ryan Walshmit is pretty good. He was, I mean, it's 117 games in his career between AA and Triple A. He has 15 homers and 25 stolen bases. He walks a lot. He doesn't strike out much at least before the majors. I think it's a good bet on talent for a guy who I think is going to get some extended run. In the second half, they placed Tommy Troy on the IL so that frees up some of the playing time concern that we had when Walshmit got recalled. And I just think it's a bet on a guy we were very excited about two months ago when he first got called up. I will remain pretty excited now that the hype has died down. Yeah. And typically, I think that's a good bet to make, right? It's the prospect that comes up, fails his first stint. Everyone just kind of sours on him. But we see in the minor league numbers how talented he is. He's got power. He's got speed. Not incredible raw power, but I think he's someone that can angle the ball correctly to get some of that power only 26% roster. So I a lot of people dropped him rightfully so I think in five outfield their leagues. If you know, Walshmit's still out there, it's probably a good bet to make. So I think any rodeo league, I'd be looking at him. Who's A sleeper on the pitching side? You're like, so one of the things I wanted to highlight was just the upcoming trade deadline and how that always creates opportunities for unexpected players to emerge as viable fantasy options. The problem is there aren't a lot of teams that are definitely selling right now. And the ones that are are like the giants and the Rockies and guys at it are they the only. I thought about doing a trade deadline segment during the all-star break, but I noticed the same thing as you. It's even if you look at teams that are going to be out of it and could trade their closer. A lot of those bad teams don't even have a closer. But this specific name you're about to mention, I think makes a lot of sense. And that's why I circled Luke Weaver for the match. Who is not a closer, but seems well positioned to be traded somewhere. Well, he at least have a chance to be a closer. I'm not saying he'll definitely be a closer at the deadline, but the pirates would make a lot of sense as a liquid. And I think Boston is another team that I'm not sure if they're going to trade or sell or not, but both Araldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock are closer caliber pitchers who I believe have one year on their contracts after this year. I don't think they're selling anymore. That's the problem. Yeah, but if they did, I think either Garrett Whitlock or Araldis Chapman would be a great pickup for someone who needs a closer. Yeah. So that's the next two weeks. They're going to are going to separate the wheat from the chaff here as far as buyers and sellers goes. It's just too early to I mean Boston before the ninth winning streak looked like like a clear seller. - And there's still two games below 500. That's not a good time. - Yeah, but they're, you know, they're within striking distance of the wild card now. - Yeah. - So, you know, if they stay hot for a week, I think they're not gonna be sellers, but if they, if they revert to playing for 50 type baseball, then they will be. - But Luke Weaver has been a closer and a pretty effective one in the past. He's been the best pitcher in the Metz bullpen this season, despite not being the closer. And it doesn't sound like if he gets traded, he's likely to become the closer because they, they'd have given Devon Williams the vote of confidence. Williams is the long term guy there. You know, he's under contract, I think an extra year beyond Luke Weaver. So, you know, from that perspective, I think they'd rather Devon Williams remain the closer, but I think Luke Weaver is a good candidate to get a closing job. And I think he'd be great at it. So, that's the biggest name to watch, I think, as the Deadline Looms. - I was just looking around for closures that can be traded. There have been some whispers about Mason Miller and I understand it would take an incredible haul. But they're hat, like the talk about it is that they could attach one of those terrible contracts with Mason Miller. They won't get as good of a return back, but if they, let's say, wanna get off many Machado's contract, I don't know who's gonna take that contract, but if one team wanted to get Mason Miller, they'd take on Machado as well. If Mason Miller gets traded like Adrian Morning Home, obviously could be a really closer candidate for the Padres. I still think that's not very likely to happen, but it's a name worth throwing out there. I think if the D-backs kind of faltered the next couple of weeks, they're two and a half spots out of a walker spot right now. Paul Seewald could be traded, but I don't really see anyone in the D-backs bullpen that would excite me if Paul Seewald got moved. - So, Justin Martinez is pitching again, but I don't know if he'll be back. - I think AJ Puck was the matter. AJ Puck was rehabbing too, right? - He was, though I think last I looked, and it was a week or two ago at this point, but he had been shut down again. AJ Puck. - Yeah, Martinez has been, yeah, he's throwing off mountains and stuff, so yeah. - All right, I texted you guys earlier in the day, I was like one hit or one pitcher each, and then I completely cheated on this exercise, and I sorted by last 30 days, X-woabah, and I found all these interesting names. So I'm gonna throw a three kinda deep outfielder's out at you, and you guys tell me if you're interested in any of these, but Harry Berkto, her Nandez of the Marlins, Chris, we spoke about him right before the break, but in his last 36 games heading into the break, 282 12 homers in OPS over 1000, 92.8 average EV, 17% barrel rate. The question is the playing time, he did start five games before the break, five straight games before the break, and Owen Casey is hurt. He is definitely better against left-handed pitching than he is righty, so like, if they wanna just use him as a short-side platoon, I would understand that, but he's getting a little bit more run, and his underlying numbers are awesome. Lane Thomas, old friend with the Kansas City Royals, final 13 games before the break, 314, 2 homers, a steel 952 OPS, but if you look at his stack-ass data since the start of June, 92.1 average EV, 286 XBA, 454 XLug, still 92nd percentile sprint speed, he hasn't run that much, but he's clearly fast enough to do it, and typically the Royals let their guys run, so just kinda wonder about Lane Thomas, and then Cam Smith, like maybe Cam Smith will just underperform his expected stats until the end of time, but they're good, and they have gotten better as the season has gone on. So since May 29th, which is a 39 game sample, he's only hitting 222 seven homers, two seals, 709 OPS, but during that stretch, just an 18% K rate, 91.6 average EV, 11% barrel rate, 271 XBA 483 XLug, so those numbers are really good, and if you look at the biggest gainers in that speed this season, Cam Smith, he's up three miles per hour, his fast swing percentage is up from 47% to 76%, I mean, I don't even know if there's a number higher than that in baseball. That is just an astronomical number here for Cam Smith. So all three of these names, I think are like deeper, five alphular roto league type names, but I'm pretty intrigued by all three. - Yeah, I think especially, Aireberto, I'm forgetting his last name. - Hernandez. - Aireberto Hernandez, yes, of the Marlins, because he is playing more, and because he's been so hot, we're gonna talk about him later when we do the week 18 sleeper hitters, Frank. So I think he's definitely on the fringes of being added, especially in five alphulder leagues. The others, I'm not quite sure they're there yet, Lane Thomas and Cam Smith, but those are interesting data points, and it makes them worth monitoring at the very least. - Someone in the chat made a point that I was about to make. So good job, Greg, Greg Laska, 'cause I was about to say the same thing. Cam Smith feels like such a Jordan Walker candidate at some point to just figure out the physical tools are so obviously there, and it's just a question of, does he figure out a way to put them into play often enough to make it matter? If he hasn't yet, but he's still just 23 years old. I still think this is a guy, as long as it remains cheap, and it will, I still think it's gonna make sense to take some low-risk bets on them. - I think that's most applicable in a deep dynasty context, and obviously, dynasty leagues are set up so differently, and a lot of them the way they limit you so much in terms of keepers and keeper costs that it's like you can't afford to invest years in a guy who's not performing, you know? But those who had Jordan Walker once upon a time in a dynasty league are wishing they had invested those years. Those who invested, who had invested in Miguel Vargas when he was a big prospect, and gave up on him when he did it to liver in his first year or two, are wishing they had shown more patience with him. It's incredibly hard, and like, there was no guarantee it would happen for either of those guys. And so you don't wanna be guilty of sunk and cost fallacy where it's like, well, I've already invested this many years, I guess I gotta keep holding until he's 30 and never get anything. Like obviously, at some point, you gotta cut the cord, but for the majority of baseball history, the norm has been that young players, no matter how high-end they are as prospects, take a few years in the majors to figure it out. And I'm not saying that's the norm right now, but it showed its surprises when it happens. - Also just worth pointing out, 'cause I'm sure some of you are scoffing, and oh, there's no way, Cam Smith is good, Jordan Walker. Look, I don't think it's likely, but Cam Smith has been better so far in his career than Jordan Walker was before this season. Like we should just make sure that is known that like, how good Jordan Walker has been this season, he was a disaster before this season. - He wasn't drafted in leagues this season, Chris. - He had a 594 OPS in the previous two seasons entering this year. Like it's unlikely I agree that Cam Smith figures it out. It was extremely unlikely Jordan Walker would figure it out. It's just, it's a bet on a physical talent, you know? - And even if he doesn't get to Jordan Walker's level, I mean, he still puts the ball on the ground too much, Cam Smith, but that was also a problem for Jordan Walker. - And he's a right handed hitter in Houston, which is like a great place to be a right handed hitter. Even if he isn't gets to the heights of Jordan Walker, given his tools, I could see him getting to like a two, 60, 270, 20, 20 type season, like I could, as soon as next year, I could, maybe it starts in the second half, just based on some underlying stuff there for Cam Smith. The pitcher I wanted to mention, I so badly wanted to choose one of the brewers guys, Shane Drowen and Orobr Gasser, but I just worry about their innings. They barely threw any innings last year, but I am definitely intrigued by both. So instead I went with Jack Flarity, who has been pretty bad since the start of last year, I totally understand that, and you've probably been burned by Jack Flarity. At some point, if you haven't, are you even playing fantasy baseball? That's just like a right of passage to be burned by Jack Flarity. But he recently returned from an ankle injury, and in three starts since coming back, a 108 ERA 0.78 whip, 10.8 K per nine, 15% swinging strike rate. The velocity is up almost a mile per hour on both his fastball and his slider, mixing in his sinker and change up a little bit, which in a small sample this year, they have been fine pitches for him. So it's just a bad on a guy that like, we've seen do good things in the past, he's a veteran guy, he definitely could get whiffs, 60% rostered, and I would drop any of these pitchers, who are rostered currently in more leagues than Flarity, for him. So Spencer Erigetti, Bryce Elder, Andrew Abbott, Noah Cameron, I'd make that swap for Jack Flarity. - Yeah, I think that's fair. And like the criticism of Jack Flarity de Skepticism is totally fair to him, I share it. But that's why he's allowed to be a sleeper, you know? Like he wouldn't qualify for this exercise if there weren't. - If we knew he was good. - Right, you know? Like, You're looking for a sleeper whose can't miss. Well, you need to get in a tougher league because like the can't miss guys are already gobbled up. - Yep. I do have a few bonus prospects again. I completely cheated. If you guys have other names you wanna throw out there, feel free to go for it. But two prospects I wanted to quickly mention, Quinn Matthews of the Cardinals, who like two years ago in 2024, he was the minor league pitching prospect of the year. Last year dealt with a shoulder injury, and it completely ruined his control. And for most of this season the control has been bad. Last seven starts at AAA, 183 ERA 0.79 Whip, 10.3 K-Pronine, 3.4 Wocks Pronine. So he's getting those walks under control. Both his slider and change up have wif rates over 38% in the minor's the season. The Cardinals have a full rotation, but you know, pitcher injuries happen. Matthew Libertor is also really bad. - Trades will probably happen here too. I believe Dustin Megas on a one year deal. - The thing with the Cardinals is they're only like two games out of a lock, are they? - Yeah, they're in the thick of it. - But yeah, Matthews has turned things around and Max Clark of the Tigers, final 24 games at AAA before the break, 303 batting average, four homers, 20 runs, eight steals, 864 OPS, more walks than Shrikeouts. Just an 11% Shrike outrate during that stretch. The Tigers have been using James Outman and Matt Verling in their outfield. Like frankly I'm a little shocked that he hasn't been called up already, but yeah, do you guys have any thoughts on Quinn Mattoos or Max Clark? - I definitely think their names to watch. Again, you know, it would have to be a pretty deep league to sneak a roster spot in them at this point, but they're definitely names to watch for the second half. - Sure, sure. - Names who as soon as they get called up, that will be very excited to add them. - All right, let's take our final break. When we return, we'll get to the breakouts and the bus. We'll do that right after this. Welcome back, fantasy baseball today. Let's get into breakouts for the second half and Chris, this time we will start with you. - Okay, so to begin with just a bunch of guys who have been bad so far this season, but I still think are good. Like Raphael Devers, Vladimir Guerrero, Coste Hours, Cal Tucker, Fernando Tatees, Ronald Acunia, any of those. I think you could reasonably count as a breakout for the second half, 'cause I think they will all be better than they were in the first half, but it feels kind of going against the spirit of the argument. So I will go with Carson Bench, who has been good, but I think he could still be great. He is one of these guys who you look at the overall production and it's pretty good. 263, he's on a close to 20 Homer, 25 stolen base piece. The underlying data suggests that he's been a little unlucky, that he has deserved something more like a 285-290 batting average and a little more power than we've gotten out of him. And you can squint and see with his bat to ball skills and the power and I think there's room for the walk rate to grow. You can see Carson Bench, I mean, we've made the comp a ton of times, but the Brandon Nemo comp, but potentially a more impactful version of Brandon Nemo, at least with the speed. I think Carson Bench could be a 25 to 30 steel guy if they really let him loose. And he could spend more time at the top of that lineup and there's just, there's a lot of ways for things to go really right for Carson Bench. And he's a guy who's already established a pretty high floor for a 23 year old. So I remain very excited about Carson Bench as a hitter. - I think Scott, you made this comp at some point as well. Maybe I'm thinking of someone else, but Christian Yellich on the Marlins for Carson Bench, right? Just like good batting average, power like 2020 guy. That'd be a really, really good outcome for Carson Bench. And as he pointed out, Chris, I just checked, he's underperformed his X-Wobo by like 30 points, so has even been a little bit unlucky, power speed. He's, they've changed him from the top of the lineup to fifth in the lineup, which changes the shape of the production. But again, it's still a really good spot to hit. He's right behind Soto, Boshett and Lindor. Like there are a ton of RBI opportunities there. And typically middle of the lineup, bats don't run all that much, but the bottom of the meta line up, not as good as-- - Yeah, I think they could. - So I think they could still let him run. So yeah, I am fully on board. In fact, I think we've kind of like seen like the start of the breakout, but there might even be another level here, four Carson Bench. Who is your pitcher breakout for the second half? - So this one, does this go against the spirit of the exercise, Kate Anderson? - I brought up prospects on the sleepers. I think he is he now the most typed pitching prospect, like in season pitching prospect debut since Paul Schienz. - I can't remember one that-- - That's the name I'll have to say. - Has drawn positive-- - There's a much excitement from fantasy players. - I mean, Chase Burns had a lot of hype right out of his promotion last year. It's a difficult thing to quantify. - But either way, Kate Anderson, he was the number three pick in last year's draft. This is his first professional season. He has a 41.4% strike at rate and a 3.8% walk rate. He has been totally overqualified for AA. And I think the only reason he hasn't gone to AAA is just, I don't think the Mariners like ever send their top prospects to AAA. I was looking-- - It's rare. - I think George Kirby made one start there. I think Logan Gilbert made one start there. I think Brian Wumade won start there. - I think that's where-- - I think that's where they have starts. - Aren't they? - I think prior to the promotion based on-- - Yeah. - Based on the number of times I've written it in my, Kate Anderson write up for five on the Virgin the Prospects report. - It could have been, yeah. So a price Miller, same thing. You'd start from AA. - They just, they don't like their guys pitching it in the PCL. So it's just a question of how long, like, do one, do they want to go with a six-man rotation long term? And if so, then they just need to trade Luis Castillo or someone needs to get hurt. If they want to go back to a five-man rotation, which I kind of suspect they do, it does get a little trickier to get Kate Anderson in there, but I kind of think they just need to do it. - And I think Gilbert-- - And I think Gilbert-- - It's just-- - I see, 'cause this is a team that is, look, the pitching is not the reason they're not in the playoffs. So you can make the case that, or that they're having a disappointing season, 'cause they are currently in first place in the division. But this is a team that pretty desperately wants to make the playoffs, like it would be a huge disappointment for the Mariners if they didn't. - You might as well just see if this guy can give you that boost because he looks majorly ready, depending on what projection systems you look at, some of the projection systems already think he has an impact picture at the major league level. I'm, yeah, I think we just gotta see him at some point, Kate Anderson. - I think the Mariners know that too. I mean, we've heard reports recently that they are shopping their pitching depth and they could trade away Luis Castillo. So this is another one of those like trade deadline, potential value gainers here, where if the Mariners trade Luis Castillo and I don't think it would take much to just kind of move Emerson Hancock to the bullpen, they need to know if Kate Anderson is one of their three or four best pitchers going into the postseason. And I think we will find that out during, during the final stretch of the season. He is 56% rostered. I know, can you call a prospect a must roster player? It kind of feels like he should be though. I don't know. When it seems like he'll be up in the next two weeks here. - Yeah, I think so. - Maybe not like the 10 teamers, the leagues where you've got nothing but all stars in your roster spots, but otherwise. Leagues of any real size, Kate Anderson should be stashed. - All right, it's got over to you for a couple of breakouts here in second half. - All right, by the way, Kate Anderson was like that game that immediately popped in my head when I was thinking about breakout pitchers. So I think it's very much in the spirit of it, but I decided to go with E and C Moore, has my breakout pitcher for the second half, who we've talked a lot about recently. Obviously has looked great over, well, he's looked great in three of his last four appearances. And then the most recent one, not so much, it kind of skewed the overall numbers during that time. But the small of the sample is the more I think it makes sense to break down the game log as opposed to looking at the overall percentages. And you got three awesome outings in this last three with tons of strikeouts and then the one stinker. And I keep coming back to, when they first moved E and C Moore back into the rotation, June 25th, I believe it was, he said, it comes down to the reps that longer outings allow you to have from a delivery standpoint, you just feel a little more crisp. Basically voicing the idea that he thinks the kind of pitcher he is with more than five pitches, four that he features prominently. It's hard to get the right mix to have everything synced up when you're working in shorter outings. And so overall he's got an ERA well over four. And there was some hope for E and C Moore coming into the year because he got a chance to start at the end of last season. Final seven appearances, 340 ADRA over 10k per nine for a guy who was great in the minors always. But then when the raise puts E more in the bullpen to start out and he didn't pitch that well, it was kind of out of mind at that point. But between how we finished last season and how he's looked since moving back into this extended role, I think we can say C Moore is just better equipped to start and obviously the mind of Lee Trek that also. And I think I think people who invest in 79% roster now. So they made Mr. Chance and CPS leagues. But I think those who picked them up are going to be very happy with what it delivers down the stretch. 31% strikeout rate when he's in the rotation for his career. 11 career starts. It's like a 6% walk rate. It's a 403 ERA, which isn't great, but 109 Whip. I think the ERA is just kind of a little bad luck there. And yeah, Ian C. Moore, anytime he's been allowed to start basically, as a major leagueer, he's looked very, very good. And it's hard to do that split perfectly because there have been a lot of like following opener, outings that have been really strong to that when it technically qualifies starts. Yeah. Yeah. I think he's a good one. And then another former raise, farmhand, my breakout hitter for the second half, his curd is need, who whose roster ship continues to lag even though he's at 17 home runs got there because he surged at the end of the first half after, you know, there have been ups and downs for me in the first half. And I think the biggest thing that's holding back his roster rate is the inconsistency of the playing time. Even now, it would be a stretch to say Curtis meat is an everyday player for the nationals, but he should be. Yeah. His in addition to the 17 home runs, he's reaching base at a 341 clip. And that's what is, you know, he's he's under performing as expected betting every 20 points. So you get that up to go with all the walks. This is a guy who could reach base 36% of the time with power and third base eligibility, which is so. And second base, we don't need that as much in fantasy, but it doesn't hurt. Third base, especially though. I think first base also, right? Yeah. So really handy there with the eligibility, the walk rate by far the best has been the strikeout rate by far the best has been doesn't hit the ball that hard on average, but the pole air rates good. And obviously he's produced home runs. I think, I think we're going to see the nationals wake up in the second half. And I think Curtis meat is going to be a bolt prediction. I'll say he's the top 12 third baseman for the second half. I love it. Yeah. And I do think he should play every day. If you look at the splits, they're very even. It's a 341 OVP against both handedness. It's an 869 OPS against lefties 824 against right. So he doesn't have some crazy split. Maybe that might have been the case as a part time player before this, but very even splits so far this season. And while both guys see more and Curtis meat are over 70% roster now on CBS, they are both widely available on Yahoo. So ENC more 55% Curtis meat 31% and that's a really valuable player to have. And I tell you why you can move them around for a second third. Yeah, I definitely think that numbers should be higher over on Yahoo. Leagues for Curtis meat. Have a couple breakout hitters here for you. Cole Carrig. He has looked very good so far in 31 games 273, four homers, two steals 871 OPS 11% wall 22% strikeout rate. There's good and bad. I think with any young player, if you look at good, his own contact 84% that's better than league average so far. 26% pulled air rate. You'll love to see that and 90th percentile sprint speed. So good athlete hits the ball to his pull side, which he needs to get to his power because the bad he hasn't hit the ball hard so far. That number should get better. It can't get much worse. It's 85.9 miles per hour. But again, pulling the ball in the air does help. He is very aggressive at the plate. Again, that's another bad thing and his swing percentage is chase rates are higher. So I just worry a little bit about him getting a little chase happy in the second half if he starts to slump a little bit. But overall, I think the tools are awesome. He has course field to call home and he's still out there in some leagues. He's 68% roster. I think even in a point league, I think cold carrot probably should be rostered, given what his upside could be in the second half. And the other name I have is much deeper. But I don't know. It's kind of intrigued when I dug in here. Cooper Pratt with the Brewers. We haven't talked much about him. He hasn't really done much so far. But hitting 257, six deals and 24 games. Awesome plate discipline so far. 13.5% wall rate, 16% strikeout rate. He's not chasing or whiffing much. 86% zone contact is great. 88% house sprint speed. That supports the early steals. And he's underperformed. His expected stats 310 xba 415 x lug. Not a great number, but he doesn't have a home or yet. It feels like maybe he should based on a 415 x lug. His average EV I think is good for a middle infielder 88.7 16% pulled air rate is solid as well. So I just think we could get a good amount of speed and maybe pops a couple of home runs in the second half. 32% rostered. I'm intrigued in Cooper Pratt as a middle infield option in run O leagues and Cole Carrick basically anywhere. I agree. I think Cole Carrick has the potential to be the next great Rockies fantasy option. Like in I'm not going to say he's as good as Trevor story or Charlie Blackman were at their peaks. But it's that kind of all around skill set that could really take advantage of course field. I think there is the potential that we're telling my Cole Carrick as like a top 50 type player. As early as next season if he keeps this up there you go. Squatter Rocky shirt today. Rocky shirt. Yeah. Big Rockies fan this guy. Very nice. Yeah. So that was Cole Carrick and Cooper Pratt. The picture that I'll mention here as a breakout. I don't know that you can call somebody with a career 252 era a point 999 whip and 11.2 K. Prana in a breakout. But I'm going to do that with Logan Henderson because honestly I think if he just does it consistently with no more interruptions no more injuries no more brewers playing games going deeper into his starts would be nice as well. But if he just does it uninterrupted in the second half. I think he has like top 30 SP upside like maybe higher maybe it's like top 24 SP upside here for Logan Henderson. He does it in an unconventional way. He does not throw hard. But it's a fastball change up approach. He mixes in a cutter and I looked at the picture list PLV metrics basically an all encompassing just metric for a pitch. Logan Henderson's fastball ranked in the 83rd percentile his change up 89th percentile his cutter 95th percentile. So if you want to believe that we know he has a good fastball and change up. But his cutter might be really good too. He's all the way up to 85% roster. So it's much like your your E and C more picks got. But if you picked up Logan Henderson man I I just think he could be absolutely awesome in the second half. Yeah. Don't be you guys don't need to be self conscious with your picks. Yeah. Logan Henderson was my backup plan if somebody claimed DNC more. So I'm right there with you. All right. Logan Henderson I'll look up 56% roster on Yahoo. You know Yahoo. You got a lot of good decisions to make. There's a lot of I could players available over on Yahoo. How would you guys? It's not a waiver wire segment. What we're doing right now. Yeah. I know. I know. If you had to choose one, Scott, who would you like more rest of season? E and C more? Logan Henderson. See more about his clothes. Yeah. I think I might go with Henderson. I think the skill sets a little stronger. It's just I have no faith he can stay healthy. That's the biggest concern with with Logan Henderson. All right. Let's wrap up here with the busts for the second half and who wants the free square? You can't keep getting away with this. You can't keep getting away with it. He won't. That is Edward or Rodrigues. Yeah. I mean, look, there are several players in this mold. Nick Martinez, Michael McGreevy. You could maybe argue foster Griffin. There are any number of pitchers who are outperforming their peripherals in a way that is almost certainly not going to sustain. Edward Rodriguez is I think fourth in the majors in ERA. Behind only Jacob, his year-aski came Schletler and Chris sale. He has the among the 15 starters with an ERA below three. He has the second lowest strike array and the third highest walk rate. That's bad. His expected ERA is over five. His expected WoBA is 384. So it's not like he limits damage on contact. His expected WoBA on contact is 384. That's the 14th worst mark among starters. There is no reason to believe Edward or Rodrigues will continue to do this. He might because for every 100 pitchers, you would expect one of them to hit their 99th percent to outcome at any given time. Maybe he's that one for the whole season. Maybe he's from our team Perez from 2022. Edward Rodriguez is not good and look at what happened to Martin Perez every year since 2022. Yeah. ERA, by the way, among starters, has the biggest differential between his ERA and XERA. The difference is bigger than his ERA. His ERA is 229. The difference is 277. Yeah. It's crazy. His XERA is over five. Yeah. So you guys talked about it. We mentioned it all season. So look, if you can sell high on ERA, if not, just ride it until the wheel fall off, which could be very soon into the second half. Chris, a bust, hitter and pitcher, second half. Yeah. I will go with Mickey Moniac as the bust and this mostly just comes down to I think the Rockies will trade him. I think the Rocky should trade him to start. And I think they probably will. 'Cause we know they have a lot of playing time gluts. This is a journey man who's like 27 years old. He's not part of the long-term future. I just don't think he's all that good. I think he can hit Rideswell and I think it hit Course Field, but that's all. He is among all hitters since the start of last season. And I think it's 250 plate appearances. He is 93rd percentile in Wobe at home. And he is 97th percentile in Wobe versus right handed hitters. He is 21st percentile on the road and he is 11th percentile against left handed pitchers. His limitations and skills are very, very obvious and there's value in that. But I think this is a guy who will have zero fantasy value. Outside of Course Field and just, I think they're gonna trade him. So that seems like a pretty obvious one. On the pitching side, this one makes me sad. And part of the reason I went with Mickey Moniak is my other bus call is also on the Marlins and I don't wanna do two Marlins. So Adelope has your safe. My bus pitcher is Max Meyer. I think it's been really smart the way he's leaned into his sweeper and slider. This season, those are by far his two best pitches. I don't really think the rest of his arsenal is very good. So throwing those two pitches like 60% of the time, that's smart. It goes without saying that he's not a true talent to 5080 RA pitcher, but his XERAS 379, he's really outperforming that. And he's up to 108 innings on the season. His career high is 115. I just think there are multiple ways that Max Meyer second half of the season can go wrong. And he only threw like 60 last year, right? Yeah, so I just, I am very concerned about what the second half of the season for Max Meyer is going to look like. That would be why. It does reassure me a little bit because the other day, Scott and I did a podcast, the biggest value changes from preseason until now. And there were a lot of Marlins on the list, Chris. We didn't wanna keep talking them down, but there were just a lot of data points that suggested Adelope's in Liam Hicks and Max Meyer will not do what they did in the first half in the second half. And so by default, you can try to sell high. You might not get what you want and so you could just continue to ride with it, but that's what the data says. And Adelope has one like his expected batting average is 290. Which is still awesome. That would be awesome. Like we'll take that when he's on a 30 steel pace. He's just, he's unlikely to win a batting title. So I, you know, I think that's one where it's like, a second half bust, I still think he'll be good. Just probably not a top 12 shortstop necessarily. - All right, Scott over you for your second half busts. - Bus, Tedder, I'm going with Brandon Marsh. Marsh is one of my other ones, yeah. - It looked like a different player at the start of the year. So I was willing to buy more into what he was doing. Maybe it was a break up, but specifically the strikeout rate was way down and that it always been such an albatross for him. He tends to run a high babbip so you could see the potential for batting average if he could get that strikeout on rate under control, but it just didn't seem likely ever would. For a month and a half he did. But since May 16th, Brandon Marsh is striking out 33% at the time. It seems like the correction has already started. It wasn't that long ago. I remember seeing him hit like 325, 330. It was where that batting average was. It's dropped below 300 now, 297. Still very good, of course, but I think it's going to keep dropping from there. It's going to finish in the 260s if not lower. Why, you might ask, well, why are you giving so much credence to the 33% strikeout rate since May 16th and as opposed to what he had before then? Well, I mean, just look at the larger track record for Brandon Marsh with this. I think this is closer to who he is. He still struggles against left handers. So there could come a point, maybe the Phillies pick up a right handed outfield bad at the deadline and he's back to platooning. There's just so many ways Brandon Marsh could lose value very quickly. So he's my bus pick at hitter. And then at pitcher, we already talked about there are a lot of obvious ones. I want to go with somebody less obvious because I try to think of buss more in terms of like, how could something go really wrong here, as opposed to just how could his numbers kind of normalize for the worse? And I think things could go really wrong for Shane McLean a hand. He is not the same pitcher he was before the second Tommy John surgery. Really not even close. He's managed to pitch to a 283 ERA and so he's been serviceable, but less than a strikeout per inning, his swinging strike rate, a very ordinary 11.9%. I guess that's slightly above average, but pretty ordinary. And he was a guy who ran 15 to 16% swinging strike rates before he was a huge bad misser. That 283 ERA is backed up by a four XERA. So right there, you would suggest, he's overachieving by quite a bit. And then on top of that, he's missed two full years basically, coming back from a two year absence. And he's in the organization that most likes to baby its pitchers. I think usage, he's not even quite to 90 innings yet. So they've already done some management there, but I think they could get a lot stricter within the second half, particularly if he starts to pitch more to his expectations. He's affected ERA. And yeah, I think Shane McClanahan is, it's a good time to get out. All right, I'm gonna wrap up here with my two bus calls. And this one has already started, but I don't know if people fully realize. Christian Walker, his early season is doing a lot of the heavy lifting, but he stumbled into the break. His final 29 games, he hit 202 with a 603 OPS, only four barrels, 5% barrel rate, 87.7 average EV during that span. He still has 20 homers and 58 RBI, but the overall batting average is all the way down to 237. His expected stats are actually worse this year than they were last year. It's a 227 XBA 389 X lug. He's currently the 23rd biggest overachiever in terms of WoWB minus X WoWB. His chase rate is the highest it's been since 2020. So, but people might realize that the fall off has already started and perhaps you can't cash in here, but I need to worth a try, 'cause I think perhaps we're gonna get the reverse last year, bad first half, good second half, and I think perhaps the second half could be pretty rough here for an aging Christian Walker. And then the last name here is one that you mentioned, Chris, Nick Martinez, and maybe the raise just kind of worked their devil magic all season with Nick Martinez. And they've done some good things with him, like emphasizing his sinker and his change up more. Those were his two best pitches last year. He's starting them more this year, and they've been really good for him once again. His control has been pristine. Can he maintain that? He's avoided hard contact. But his 265 ERA also comes with an 85% left on base percentage. Last year it was 69%. And it also comes with a 460 X5 and a 467 XERA. And one thing that I point out with Eduardo Rodriguez a lot is that while I don't think he can maintain getting away with it for this long, one reason he has because the Arizona Diamondbacks defense is really, really good. The raise defense, not as good as the D-Bex defense. So you have to squint a little bit harder to see Nick Martinez continuing to get away with this. So I could see him taking a big step back here in the second half. Any thoughts on Martinez or Christian Walker? - He was my backup plan here, Nick Martinez. - I agree on both. In Christian Walker's case, you're actually giving him a little extra credit with your arbitrary endpoints because you said he has four home runs in his final 29 games. He had two home runs and backed back games, 26 and 27 games ago. His last 25 games, he's hanging like 207 with two home runs. So yeah. - Yeah, another bust pick I considered here. It's unconventional because he's already been bad. But my case for Freddie Peralta being a second half bust is just that he's gonna remain bad. And a lot of people are identifying him as a by-low target. And there's absolutely a by-low case form. If it was low enough, I'd be buying two because I don't know what's gonna happen. But I do have real doubts about him even being the same pitcher that he was in Milwaukee. So that was one I considered to Freddie Peralta as a bust. - I can't quantify this guy, but I just wonder about a change of scenery for Freddie Peralta maybe getting him back on track. We talked about him the other day too. It's his slider. He just barely uses any more. And it's not really a weapon, which I think when he came up, it was like maybe his best pitch, which is just kind of weird there for Freddie Peralta. Here we are, let's wrap up. We're so back to stream or not to stream for the weekend. I almost wasn't gonna do this, but then Scott was like, no, we have to do to stream or not to stream in the show. - Scott was gonna walk off the show. That's exactly how that conversation was. - Scotty streamer, that's what they call 'em. On Friday, we have Roki Sasaki at the Yankees, Jared Jones at the Guardians, Anthony K at the Blue Jays, Spencer Miles against the White Sox, Billy Ober at the Cubs, Dean Kramer at the Astros, Peter Lambert against the Orioles, Seth Lugo against the Padres, Merrill Kelly against the Cardinals. - Jared Jones, I feel good about. - Yeah. - Yeah. - I think that's the only one I feel good about, but there are some I'm interested in. I think Peter Lambert and Dean Kramer are both interesting I think-- - I like Lambert. - I think Spencer Miles is talented. That's one that it's like every time I watch him pitch, it's like how did this guy go in the Rule Five because he's around like 20 innings or something. - They just don't let him-- He only throws like three or four innings, that's the-- - But I think he's talented. It's just I think, yeah, it's limited the appeal and fantasy, unfortunately. - Yeah. I'd be open to starting Seth Lugo. I think he's behind all the guys Chris mentioned. - Yeah, I guess to match up, yeah. - Yeah. I thought about making Dean Kramer my sleeper for the second half, so he's throwing his splitter a lot more. He gets a lot of whiffs on that pitch, so. - I think he's pretty good. I don't think he's great. I think it's like a 370 ERA, but I think he's undervalued. That splitter's really good. - Yep. On Saturday we have Sean Maniah at the Philly Spencer Errogate against the Orioles, Brennan Fought against the Cardinals, Patrick Sandivall against the Rays, Shane Drowin against the Marlins, Zach Latel at the Athletics, JT Ginn against the Nationals, Grace and Rodriguez against the Tigers. - Well, I don't really love anyone here. I think Drowin could be okay. I think Ginn could be okay. I think Maniah could be okay. But I'm not happy about any of them. - You know, Ginn kind of stumbled into the break and he gets the Nationals to start at home. It's kind of scary. - Yeah. - I think I would put Drowin and Maniah ahead of him just in terms of streamers. - Sure. - Yeah, I guess if you needed a third, I would say Ginn, but it's risky for sure. - Yep, I agree. - And then on Sunday, man, if you didn't like Saturday, great homes against the Rangers, her mom, Marques at the Royals, Robert Gasor against the Marlins, Zemi Mathews at the Cubs, Jacob Lopez, old friend starting for the Athletics against the Nationals. - Whoa. I think Jacob Lopez had like a 70 R.A. triple A. - Yeah, he was in a worse. - Yeah. - I thought about making him my 70 or 70. - Oh, man. - Yeah. If you're gonna make me start one, it's Robert Gasor, the others. - Yeah. - No, absolutely not. - Great homes against-- - Marques could be okay, homes could be okay, but I'm not expecting it from you. - Grand homes against the Rangers, it could work out. And like a five inning to run kind of way. - I'm not excited. - If you're excited. - It'll be a bad win. - For sure. We are gonna wrap there for Scott Chris. I am Frank, thanks as always for tuning into Fantasy Vs. Ball. Today, please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on Apple or Spotify. And we will be back again next week. Bye-bye. (upbeat music) (dramatic music) - Paramount Podcasts. - Yo, it's Jay Uso from WWE. - And I'm Jimmy Uso. - Chamba Casino and WWE are hyped for the biggest event of the summer. - So sweet. - I know. - I can't wait. - I'm excited to do a while away. - Then plan Chamba Casino. - Sign up today and you could win a VIP experience with Chamba Casino and WWE for summer sleep. - So where do you wait for? - Play Chamba Casino and enter for your chance to win. - Lens Chamba. - You.