Skenario Kubu Jokowi dan Prabowo Menjelang 2029

If you can't take decisions, you should not be the leader, and you should not be the president. It doesn't work that way. You are not a facilitator. You are not a chairperson of a meeting. You are the leader. You are the president of the country and you should give leadership. The ANC's got a kind of approach that says we do not want to accommodate the United States. We are not going to give in to any of those requests or demands, but as long as this is the case from South Africa's point of view, the United States is not going to sit back and just be taken for a ride. And if we are serious about Africa being a non-racial country, the last thing that you want to do is to put tick box exercises on an application form to say you must not identify what you are. Are you white, black, whatever? You're not doing that. I'm not interested in that. We're a non-racial party, we're a non-racial San Africa. Cornel Mulder leads the Freedom Front Plus. He's also, as we always tell you, the longest serving member of parliament in South Africa. Lots of experience, lots of background. He's seen it all, and that's what gives him such a wonderful perspective on what's happening, which many newcomers do the scene think it's something that's brand new. But I do think what we're going to talk about today is brand new. Two days ago, well, yesterday morning for our time when we woke up, the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced visa restrictions on still to be named individuals, rather than sanctioning South Africa as a whole, sanctioning these individuals. Now, this is to do with the expropriation without compensation, BE, and the kill the poor chant that has been flagged by the Americans in particular, the White House as well, and they say they won't change this to it. What is interesting about this was immediately after Marco Rubio's announcement, the next morning, anyway, when we woke up, the U.S. Ambassador to South Africa, Brent Bozell, confirmed that this was only the first step. So, Cornel Mulder is with us. I don't know if you've seen anything like this before, Cornel, but it really does put us in the League of Columbia and South Sudan. They've had these kind of sanctions on them. Yes, thank you, Alex, and thank you for the opportunity. It's very tragic that South Africa now finds ourselves in that kind of company, and it all goes back to the position of South Africa, and it also goes back to in terms of how the ANC is seen to national relations. I spoke at our manifesto loans to some journalists after with on Saturday, and in that interview, I said I'm predicting that there are steps going to be taken in the next three months. That was on Saturday, and on Wednesday, Tuesday, basically, the first of those came through. And the reason for that is that the United States have been very tolerant and very patient for a long time. You must remember it was in June of last year, 2025, in June when we visited the White House, where we were given those five asks by the United States. We came back, we had a press conference, I conveyed that. I subsequently tried to get hold of the president in terms of meeting with him. They were trying to play games and pushing me around. If Einstein did see him, I conveyed those kind of things to him. But there was no seriousness from the ANC side or from the presidency side to address these things, and now it's got some consequences to the detriment of some individuals, and that must be expected. I'm walking now from the business community, where Sir Roma Poe is operated in the business community for a long time, and he's well-known, Anglo-American, MTN, people who worked with him know that he just can't take a decision. He's a very amicable guy, he smiles nicely, he's terribly charming, but he has been well-known as a man who does not take decisions. Isn't that putting him in an impossible situation? Because yeah, you've got a guy who can't take decisions, and Donald Trump saying I want decisions now, please. He doesn't work that way. You're not a facilitator, you're not a chairperson of a meeting, you are the leader, you are the president of the country, and you should give leadership. And unfortunately, that is true. In terms of his style of leadership, we've seen both of these terms. During the first term, people said, well, maybe he's in difficult position, that's why it until he gets into a second term, then he'll be able to assert himself. Well, the first second term has come and almost gone, and we didn't see that, and specifically we've got this issue as well, but I think it's more than that. I think the question, the problem is this, I don't expect that the president is going to take a decision, whether it's his power or not. The ANC's got a kind of approach that says, we do not want to accommodate the United States. We are not going to give into any of those requests or demands, and they are thinking that they should just wake it out. Some of them will respond to say, well, President Trump's got another two years and four months to go until the end of his term. We were just sit back and wake it out, and then we'll see what happens after that. I know that is not the position of our ambassador, the United States. I've had two meetings with him. He's trying his level base to try and normalize relationships, but as long as this is the case from South Africa's point of view, the United States is not going to sit back and just be taken for a ride, and that is why these steps were taken. I think the more important thing is that the utterances by the ambassador of the United States of Africa, Brazil, made it very clear he said, these steps are going to be severe, and to the detriment of some people in South Africa, and these are only the first steps. I think in the next three months, we might see some more things happening. My agreement, and I think what they're good and positive is that those are not just blanket sanctions against South Africans or business, but it will be targeted sanctions against certain individuals. Kuna, isn't this a bad thing for you? I'll just put it into terms that I understand. Your party has stayed out of a lot of the freckles that's been going on. The DAs had terrible infighting. The MK just always has infighting, and the ANC is imploding. We've got an election in eight weeks' time. It could be interpreted that this is a lifeline to the ANC. It comes at a beautiful time for them, that they can turn around in the elections where they were going to get a real hiding, and say you see these big bad Americans are actually now trying to tell us what to do in South Africa, and perhaps stir up some interest on that side. Is it, in other words, the timing just before the elections? Yes, it is possible. It could have a detrimental effect in that sense, however. I think South Africans and I think traditional people also in the black community has moved beyond that. The comrades and those who have benefited from black and elite enrichment and who have the contracts and those kind of things, they are crying out like nothing before. But I think all the South Africans are sick and tired of the fact that the ANC has positioned South Africa with all the rogues in the world. And while this is happening, our economy is not growing. People are losing their jobs. There's no unemployment. Unemployment is getting worse all the time. So I think that all the South African citizens have moved beyond, and I think there's a realization that the problem is the ANC. That we will not solve these things unless we get rid of the ANC altogether. So your sense then is that South Africa's democracy is maturing. Absolutely. No doubt. If I look at the number of people from different communities that are suddenly reaching out to the feeling from plus, and it happened right from the beginning, always, but specifically from the beginning of this year, it's in relevant numbers. People are moving towards the feeling from plus from all communities. We have candidates in all communities and all provinces. And those are the people that say you are sick and tired. South Africa is the pariah. And you are sick and tired. The so-called better life for all. Never materialized for us. If materialized for a small elite that goes around calling each other comrade, and they are the problem. So I'm quite optimistic. I think we're going to do well. I think our democracy did mature to their large extent. And I think the elections of the fourth November is going to be something to watch. I'm glad you brought that up because you've been all over social media with a little clip of an interview that you had, which some people say you handled brilliantly. Other people say, well, you see they don't actually represent anyone other than a very small narrow interest. You said communities, people from all kinds of communities, just elaborate there. Yes. I was asked the question recently to try and try to get us into a difficult position to say back. You say you have support from all others. You only represent a small minority of white Afrikaners. So how many people do you have as candidates for other communities? And I just honestly responded in an honest way. So I don't know. I can't tell you. For the simple reason, if we are serious about Africa being a non-racial country, the last thing that we want to do is to put tick box exercises on an application form to say, you must not identify what you are. We're not doing that. We're a non-racial party, we're a non-racial South Africa. So I don't have those statistics, but I did mention that, if it's so important, I can go back and ask our office, give me a list of all our candidates from other communities. I think one will be surprised. You nearly have to look at some of the pictures that we're taking at our manifesto launch on Saturday and you'll see exactly what I'm saying. But I think it's an outdated argument and some of the people who have not followed the progress that the financial fund process made and the support that we get all across South Africa. I think it's an outdated kind of approach to say, but how do we deal with Oh well, they are just an exclusive little white African community. No, you're in for a huge surprise. And people will see that on the fourth. And maybe I should do that exercise. I don't want even to do that because I don't want to testify. People, you know, the A&S be the most important thing when they started off in '94, hearing the negotiations. They were adamant about the non-racial South Africa. And they have to racialize this country beyond that anyone can believe. - Well, I hope you're right. I think the many members, in fact, pretty much everybody in the business community hopes that we can get back onto a sensible approach towards South Africa because we, the one thing we do understand is the economy. And the economy is really struggling and has been doing so for a decade and a half 'cause of dumb policies. But getting back to this Marco Rubio decision, are you fully supportive of it? Is this what you were arguing for when you went, when the three amigas went to Washington? - For implication, it is that we just put that in perspective. When we went to the United States, we basically the first part we made was, if you take steps against us, please do not punish the country and please do not punish ordinary South African citizens. Because I don't deserve it. They are the victims of these file policies. These filed socialist policies that the A&C enforces on us. They are the victims of the friends and the acquaintances of the A&C. They want to be friends with all the rogues, be that Iran or the previous Venezuela or Cuba or a mask, those are their friends. So our people to the United States at that time the White House was, please do not punish ordinary South Africans. If you want to take steps, take targeted steps against those responsible. And I think that's exactly what this first step is. This first step is basically visa restrictions. And they've made it very clear. It's going to be visa restrictions against those that enact or enable these failed policies with regard to what they've asked South Africa to adapt and South Africa was not prepared. Oh, no, it's not South Africa. I think South Africans are prepared to adapt. It's the A&C. And if you remember what I've always said, they basically hijacked our international relations. How did they agree to that? I don't understand. But they have hijacked international relations and they've got the exclusive domain. So it's the A&C speaking, it's Durkho speaking. And indirectly, I think that's exactly what they are doing. Now, it's targeted sanctions in terms of visa applications. They may take it further. I saw some political comment pages this morning on television say, well, I want to understand, it's going to go beyond just officials. It may go to politicians. Those empowerment to vote it for some of this legislation. They could also be in the firing line. It could be some of the leaders and other political parties who made these pronouncements at the public rallies, kill the book, kill the farmer. So I don't know. We will see when the list comes out. But the important thing is what Guzelbe said, it will be severe, and this is under the first set. So just give us an insight into what would happen in step two, three, four, five, six. In other words, what happens from here? Well, from here, I think the decision was taken. And I think it's also because of certain responses. The United States, the Trump administration has made it very clear that they were quite tolerant. They were quite patient. We conveyed this on June of last year already. It was tried to ignore that. No response was carried. The ambassador made at the business conferences have managed to refer to that way back to say these things are outstanding. He was reprimanded and demodged for that by Durko. I think very tolerant. And then lately, I made the point recently to say that there may be some steps coming in the next three months. And then we saw the bricks that are passed weekend. Then the president was in India. And he made all kinds of pronouncements that the most important thing is Gaza, Gaza, et cetera, and not a word. And interesting enough, if you look, for example, at the rural safety issue, the rural safety issue is very important to the United States. Not only with regard to farmers, but to farm workers. And on a non-racial basis, it's not focused on white people. It's focused on all of the problems in that instance. When this thing happened in the east ran, we couldn't lay any with regard to the possibility of a mass murderer. And we all, obviously, deploy this to the highest-extend famous side is completely absurd. And we should never have that. But the president immediately acted in immediately the clerics in national crisis. But he does not want to do that with regard to farming security and rural security. So I think what's going to happen is these steps will be taken. I don't know how it will work in practice, but they most likely will come up with a list. Some people will apply for visas. And those visas will some few refuse. The United States said these people are not welcome in the United States. But then it can go further. They can go to certain economic sanctions against the nitsky kind of sanctions against targeted individuals. I don't know. But we will be step by step. And the problem is, I am convinced, as I said here, I'm absolutely convinced that the ANC, including the president, has no as zero intention of addressing a single one of these issues. They're not interested to do so. I think they can stay down the United States. I think they just have to outlive the Trump administration. Let's hear what happens. It may succeed. It may fail because we could have further Republican kind of presidency afterwards. At the other big mistake that they're making at the moment is this. They think it's something about the Trump administration. The first steps to reprimand South Africa because of its non-alignment, because you are not non-aligned, came during the second term of Barack Obama. Democrat, and definitely no one can say this is a right in the new president. So the United States in general, across the off, Democrats and Republicans are not impressed as of Africa's positioning. But I think I am absolutely convinced that South Africa doesn't take any steps in trying to address these issues. And one must understand that and deal with it. Well, how do you deal with it? If you, if you that convinced that Ramaphosa and Co I'm not going to make decisions, and in fact, they're going to do nothing about this, how do we deal with it as a business community? I think you deal with it in two ways. The one is that the United States will take its own steps and they may apply some sanctions against some of these individuals and they may apply pressure. That's what internationally happens. International relations wise. And I think it's being underestimated what the implications of these kinds of steps could be. And I think that's the one steps. The other steps is we have to get rid of the ANC. It's as blunt as that. We will not turn this country around as long as the ANC where they fail the economic policies are in charge. It's the height of madness to continue doing the spend things over and over and expect a different result. That's why our economy is not growing. That's why we're not creating jobs. And that's why our economy is in such a dire state. And the ANC is the remains committed but it feels to listen to these things and to try to adapt and to change with regard to these things. The only way there is to remove them from political power and from my perspective, the first serious step in that regard is going to happen on the 4th of November. When they're going to elect counselors and we're going to elect counselors in the metros, we will put together governments as far as I'm concerned, that will exclude the ANC. Because we have to start somewhere from my perspective, the election of the 4th of November is going to be a foundation that we are throwing. Working towards 2029, when I think we can finally turn South Africa also on the national level in the right direction, put forward a coalition government which I would like to call out the good people coming from different political parties. But 2029 is a long way away. And the damage that could be brought between now and then is there any other way? Let's just say, your scenario works out that South Africans are mature. They go to the polls in the 4th of November, they give the ANC a bloody nose, despite this American issue, which could be turned to account by the ANC. Is there anything that can be done if the people are saying, hang on, we've had enough of these guys, to bring forward the 2029 elite? - I think so, I definitely think so. No one should be as interested in your future as you should be yourself. That goes for businesses as well. And the fact is, I don't think there's the capacity anymore. You can legislate and you can do all kinds of things. But I don't think this page does have the capacity to enforce some of these things. And then people start to take not the law into their own hands and that's not what I'm saying. But people are creating a different reality. They just create a different reality of the ground where people get together from different communities and they start creating a new reality where they move forward without the government. They don't need the government to assist in any way because that assistance has been negative throughout. And I think that kind of thing and then it could change, I think more dramatically and quicker than one perceives could be the case. And from our perspective, I would like to continue to put the positive and the positive messages out there. It can be different. And the discussion that I've had, for example, with Ambassador Brazil, the United States, people are really in terms of billions of dollars, the opportunities are absolutely screening towards our Africa. Let's get forward, let's move forward. Let's start to invest, let's develop South Africa. And I think we are getting to the point where ordinary citizens will say, well, we want to reach out to that. And the right states does not say that South Africa should make a choice between the right states and Brick, for example. They just say, if you say you're not a line, really being on a line. And I've always said the best example as far as I'm concerned in that regard is India. India is a very clear player in Bricks. Found a member from the beginning. The latest confidence was in India. But India has got excellent relations with the state like Israel. They've got excellent relations with the United States. And trade agreements. Why can't South Africa just act in the best interest of South Africa? And that is not happening. And I think as long as the ANC is not possible to do that, then ordinary citizens should start to take hands and let's move forward and put our country first. And I think things will change much faster than we all think. before 2029. Technically it's possible, yes. I think the ANC could collapse overnight, remember things can go south in that instance. The ANC has got their elective conference in years, science from a proximate team. Now a little bit like to this year, about 12 months. And in 12 months, the ANC will have a new leader. We don't know if that's going to be. The ANC has set an example of recalling presidents, they've recalled Mr. Mabeki, they've recalled Mr. Zuba, and they may call Mr. Amapurza. I don't know what they will do, but we could have a new president. And that could either strengthen the government of national unity, or it could call the collapse, or the government of national unity, which could bring it in an earlier lecture. The constitution is clear, you can't have an election until three years, or the theorem has expired. The parliament can resolve itself with a majority and go into an election. So we are not necessarily, you don't have to go until 2029, we don't know what to come. That's an interesting point. If yourself and the DA, for instance, decided that you wanted to no longer continue to serve in government, would it then force a new election, or is there a process where a minority government can continue? If the view from plus and the DA withdrew from the government of national unity, that government will collapse, but that by itself will not necessarily mean that we will be an election, because the president will still be the president unless we pass a motion of the confidence in parliament. That is a different solution, that good option. And then we have to elect a new president, and that could be very interesting. I don't know what will happen, but the other process could be that you have to pass a resolution parliament with a majority support, 201 members out of 400, to dissolve parliament, and you can do that awful few years expired of a current term. They are not there yet, but it can happen at the end in terms of three years, which is way before. And that would mean that the new election will have to be called, and new members will be elected, and then a new president will have to be elected, and the new government will have to be formed. And the question obviously is, what MK and the EFF and others do, the IFB? I don't know. It could be that they would prefer to go into an election and look at that option. The election that we have on the Fourth of November will also be an indication in terms of party support. If the EFF is going down, they may be reluctant to go into an election. If MK is not doing that well, they will be reluctant. Let's quite and see how that plays out. But here in South Africa cannot continue in the current course. Economies and diets, traits, and business needs to have clarity and have to move forward. I'm an optimist. I've always been an optimist. I really believe that we are at the cost of a wonderful new development in South Africa where we can really turn things around. That's the measures I get lost since the 8th of July. I've been turning South Africa. I've had, I've had visits more than 40 towns in those two months. And I'm so busy with that for the next six weeks. And everywhere where I come, people from different communities are positive. They are excited and they're looking forward to the election. There is sense that change is imminent. I want to support them. And I think they've seen this. How are you guys seeing the political landscape will be different after November 4th? Well, first of all, we are going to see that I think different parties are going to be forming coalition governments. And I think some parties will be outside political party, outside political power altogether. I predict and get to see coalitions in all other metros most likely. And also many councils across South Africa. And then the challenge will be to form those coalition governments. And we've got some experience in terms of how you should do that. We will continue to play the role as the adult in the room if we can do that, to bring people together. My concern is I've issued a challenge to the democratic alliance. And I will repeat that challenge and they are dodging that challenge at the moment. For example, in the city of Swanlo, opinion polls indicate that the democratic alliance and the freedom from class can form an exclusive coalition and government. And my challenge to the DA remains, give the voters the assurance that you will not bring the ANC into power. And form a coalition with the ANC, the same goes to Johannesburg, Wales and Zellows at the moment. The voters should know that they cannot vote for a party that will bring the ANC back into power through the back door. And I think that's important. Partial form those coalitions. And I think that is, as I've said, will be the first step and we're going to see coalitions most likely in all nine provinces and hopefully South Africa is matured also in terms of coalition forming. We think we know how to do that. Other parties may assist and we will get to the answers. We need stable coalitions of less parties and not a pleasure of partners that make it unstable. You've always said that you talk to anybody. Now, you've just said they don't want the DA to bring in the ANC. Would you really talk to anybody? Would you talk to, you presumably met Doudesigny Zuma at the business conference in the Drakensburg? Would you talk to MK? Would you even talk to the EFF? Would you talk to the patriotic alliance? It seemed to be doing different things lately. Yes. Yes. No. Talking to others is good. We have to talk in South Africa. We can't just ignore each other. We can't shout at each other from a distance. That's not going to solve anything. But if you want to have working coalitions, you cannot build those things around positions. It cannot be about, I want to be the mayor and give you the deputy or the speaker. Those things don't last. You have to build coalitions around joint platforms where you agree on principle in terms of those things that you address. Surely, there are some common things that come out in towns in terms of bottles and electricity and service delivery. But it's not only about that party stand for something. They have certain principles. They have certain values that they espouse. If you can't agree on those kind of things, I can assure you you're running into trouble very soon afterwards. I would say at the moment we've got 547 registered parties in South Africa. I always say the vast majority of them consists of me, my wife, the facts machine in the dark. It means nothing. I say, let's look at the 10 top, the 10 bigger parties. Within those 10 bigger parties, I say you find good guys and you find bad guys. Amongst the good guys, I would count the feeling from plus. I would agree the D.A. Also, I would say the ISP, the UDN perhaps, action essay could be part of that. The PIS part of that I would suggest. But you've got some bad actors as well. And unfortunately, because of their track record and their principles and the values that they espouse, it's going to be a huge challenge to cooperate. But I'm prepared to talk to anyone. But it's not going to say that those can be successful coalitions. I don't want to see that. Even MK. And I say this because I had a very interesting interview with the D.A.'s mayoral candidate for Ete Queenie. And he said that he will not, in any circumstances, talk to the MK. He thinks there are a bunch of crooks. He says they're worse than the ANC. But from your perspective, and they're meant that from a corruption perspective, from your perspective, that's not your view. No, I think one should talk to anybody. But you shouldn't commit your styles that you are prepared to go into coalitions with anyone. That is not what it's about. If you cannot really agree in terms of values and principles and what's the best interest of the community, you cannot legitimize that. Then you stay out of it. You should definitely stay out of it. If I listen to the rhetoric of the democratic alliance, be that Ete Queenie, be that the J.E.R.S.B.E.R.D., that's your breaking swine. I think they are preparing that they are going to go to that's my prediction. I may be wrong. I hope I'm wrong because it could be. And I think the logic is the following. The D.A. wants to be the bigger part. They are out to be the biggest, for example, in 20. They are out to be the biggest in J.E.R.S.B.E.R.D. And then I think they want to bring in the ANC, but they think that they can be the bigger party and then conscribe to the ANC how things will be and the AEC will accept that. I think that's a recipe for disaster. But okay, I think the election is important to know. That's the strategy. And maybe Jorni Lewis or the other D.A. D.A.D. is going to answer us and give us a call. Kornem Elder, it's always fascinating talking with you. Thank you for your wisdom and your insights. I'm Eric Hogg from business.com.