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Silver Will Outperform Gold 'By a Wide Margin' When Fed Cracks: Steve Penny

41m 41s

Silver Will Outperform Gold 'By a Wide Margin' When Fed Cracks: Steve Penny

Steve Penny joins Commodity Culture to discuss silver's sharp pullback from its January peak, which he anticipated. He frames the current market as a "1974 moment," noting that silver's 484% run over 27 months closely mirrors the 423% move into February 1974, followed by a roughly 50% drawdown and extended consolidation. He exited most speculative precious metals positions before the peak and is now patiently scaling back in. His operating framework centers on the Federal Reserve: he expects a hike or two, then a pause, and ultimately renewed money printing, with precious metals retesting prior highs in late 2027 or early 2028 before a deflationary impulse. He argues the true catalyst for targets like $300+ silver and $10,000+ gold will be the Fed's response to the next panic-driven selloff, since a Volcker-style tightening cycle is impossible with $40 trillion in national debt. He dismisses the bear case that Kevin Warsh will act as a hawk. On manipulation, Penny believes silver and gold are the most manipulated markets but argues manipulation always fails and that technicals and the COT report can be used to investors' advantage. He is gradually adding high-quality silver miners, expecting silver to outperform gold substantially given the ~70:1 gold-silver ratio, while warning silver demands an exit strategy. He is also buying uranium stocks amid washed-out sentiment, citing strong long-term tailwinds.

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Speaker 1This is the Commodity Culture Podcast, where we interview prominent investors, fund managers, analysts, and company CEOs to give you an edge when it comes to investing in the commodity
Speaker 2space. Steve Penny, it is great to have you on Commodity Culture. Let's start with your current read of the silver market because the metal has taken a bit of a beating recently, looking like it would potentially breach $70, was never quite able to get there. Now we're around $61 and change as of the time of this recording. What do you think is causing this short-term drawdown and where do you see silver headed
Speaker 3next? Absolutely, Jesse. Thank you so much for having me back. I love coming on your channel, love your audience and get the opportunity to engage with you and your followers. So yeah, I think we're speaking at an interesting time here because I do have a little bit of a. A little bit of a different take than maybe the consensus of precious metals analysts out there. And, you know, I've been saying from leading up to that January peak that I thought we're heading into a 1974 moment where we have an interim peak followed by a longer period of consolidation than many of us were hoping for or really want to hear. So really, we have followed that playbook. We did exit the majority of our speculative silver and gold positions leading up to that peak. I'm not saying I timed it to the perfect, you know, hour a day. But we did exit the majority of our speculative silver and gold positions leading up to that peak. So we were able to exit and then I've been kind of patiently waiting for pullback scaling in. So my current operating framework right now when it comes to precious metals is that all eyes are on the Federal Reserve and the market now anticipates a new and prolonged tightening cycle. That's kind of what the market is expecting. While I do expect another hike or maybe even two or three, I think my investing theme going into 2027 is hike, pause, print in the second half of 2020. And I think we're going to see a lot of growth in the market as we get into the second half of 2020. The print and that it's not going to be a prolonged tightening cycle. And I think we do come up and retest the previous all time highs into late 2027, perhaps early 2028 prior to a deflationary impulse. And just to kind of give some clarity, I don't want to make it too complicated, but I do think we retest the highs, maybe overshoot by a little bit late next year into early 2028, followed by deflationary impulse. But I think it'll be the Fed's response to that next panic driven sell off that we're going to see that will be the ultimate catalyst that sends our focus sectors, namely silver, gold, platinum, up to those ultimate targets that many of us have in mind, 300 plus silver, 10,000 plus gold. But I think we get, you know, retest of the previous highs, big pullback first, then the Fed comes in with bazookas, guns blazing, and that's the catalyst. So that's my operating framework at this juncture.
Speaker 2So there's going to be pain along the way before the reward kicks in. Now, I want to look at the long term picture a little bit because, silver now down nearly 50% from all time highs earlier in the year. You mentioned you expected a move somewhat like this, that we would then see a drop in a sideways consolidation. I've spoken to several other people who say after it moved so far, so fast, this sort of correction is a natural market activity. It's inevitable, though a lot of those same analysts are saying the return to triple digits as you're laying out is also in the cards as well. And they believe that it's a very strong likelihood of occurring. However, I want to look at the bear side of the argument and see if we could maybe unpack scenarios where silver falls even further or continues to grind sideways far longer than the scenario you laid out.
Speaker 3Absolutely. I love this question because no matter how bullish someone is as an investor or speculator or trader, you have to always know the opposite side because we're infallible humans. We're going to be wrong from time to time. The greatest traders in the world always know the bear case and they actually spend more time studying viewpoints that are in opposition to their own. And in doing so, it sharpens your own thesis. So I think that's a great question. And if you don't mind, Jesse, I'm just going to share a chart showing what I think is the best analog for this current bull market. Now, there are some key differences between now and the 1970s, but there's also a lot of striking similarities. So 1971, Nixon took us off the gold standard. We're just coming off a period of war, lots of monetary currency creation, currency debasement. So a very similar backdrop. And from 1971 to 1974, silver went up 423% in 27 months. So now let's compare that to the run-up we just had leading up to the January peak. Well, over the preceding 27 months leading up to that January peak in 2026, silver had a 484% move, very similar to the 423% move leading up to February 1974. So very similar moves, and they actually happened to peak in about the same month, because we just peaked in the very last day of January. We're only one day away from February, so right about the same time. So pretty striking resemblance right there. And then what happened in the 1970s is silver went sideways for 59 consecutive months after a 50% drawdown. Well, we just saw about a 50% drawdown. Now, I don't expect. I don't expect quite a 59-month consolidation or five years. I do think it's going to be longer than many people thought. And I've been saying that right from the beginning when we saw that peak in January. It wasn't a popular thing to say. It's, hey, this could take a year or so. Well, I think we're about halfway through that consolidation. But take heart. I believe our 1979 moment awaits. In 1979, silver went up 8x in 12 short months. And I think we're going to see a similar moment on this current bull market. And that's. That's where the difference is. What ended that bull market was Paul Volcker stepping in and raising interest rates to 17, 18%. Well, you can't do that with a $40 trillion national debt here in the United States. I mean, a 10% interest rate on $40 trillion would be $4 trillion of interest expense. Well, they only collect just over $5 trillion in federal tax receipts. So just doing half of what Paul Volcker did would absolutely crush the economy. It would consume almost all of our tax dollars. So I don't think that's going to happen. So with that kind of backdrop, that leads me to answer your question directly of what's the bear case? Well, the most compelling bear case I could come up with, which isn't really very compelling, is that, hey, is Kevin Walsh the next Paul Volcker? I've heard some people saying that. Well, maybe, but I think that is highly, highly unlikely. Because for Kevin Walsh to step in and raise rates to a level that would actually bring inflation down, to their 2% target, which they've never actually achieved, it would absolutely crush the economy. It would lead to a deflationary depression. And central planners, that's the last thing they want. They fear deflation much more than they fear inflation for a couple of reasons. Number one, when you have deflation, the central planners, those in charge, get blamed for it. The pitchforks come out, so to speak, and they go after the politicians. But with inflation, it's so insidious that people, they don't know who to blame. They blame the corporations, the greedy corporations for raising prices. They don't go to the root cause because they don't have the financial education that you and your listeners have. So that's one reason they're not going to allow that to happen. And the second is deflation can't be taxed. When you have deflation, it's almost like a default tax decrease for the average everyday person. Because the price of their goods goes down, and that can't be taxed. But with inflation, you know, as nominal wages go up, well, that increases, it puts more people into those higher tax brackets. So there's a variety of reasons why the central planners do not want deflation. They'd much prefer inflation. And they're trying to thread the needle now with financial repression by having inflation just odd enough so that, yeah, the people might grumble a little bit, but they're not out in the streets rioting. That's the needle they're trying to thread. But history shows that you really can't thread that needle, and you're going to have to choose at the end of the day. Either deep, you know, sacrifice the dollar or sacrifice the financial markets. And precedent always shows 100% of the time they choose to debase. But their bear case would be, and that's kind of a prevailing, you know, idea out there is that, hey, Kevin Walsh is like the next Volcker. He's determined. He's a tough guy and all this. I don't buy that for a second. I think these central planners are, you know, a lot of people say they're stupid. I don't think they're stupid at all. I think they're evil, but not stupid. And I'm not naive enough to think that. You know, the president who was criticizing the previous Fed Chairman Powell for, you know, he's an idiot. He needs to bring the rate down to zero, and then he's going to uninformedly, mistakenly bring in someone who's going to be the opposite of that, a hawk. This is all preplanned. I don't think the president is surprised by any of this at all. I think it was in the plan to have this guy come in, talk tough, introduce some confidence to the bond market, kind of stave off the bond vigilantes. a rate hike or two to have some confidence. then pause. And I think these five task forces that he appointed will give him the cover to structurally ease into the back half of 2027. So that's a long answer, but that would be my bear case. Kevin Warsh is more hawkish than maybe even I think. I could be wrong. That's just the way I think about it right now.
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Speaker 3I'm smiling because if I heard someone give the answer I'm about to give, I would be like, oh, that's like a political diplomatic answer. But I do. The truth is, I really do. I'm sympathetic to both viewpoints. And I actually think both are true, kind of. So I'll expand on that. I'll just be clear. I absolutely believe that silver and gold are the most manipulated markets on the planet. Put me in that camp for sure. I'm actually a subscriber to Ed Steer. I subscribed to Ted Butler before he passed away. TF Metals. I've subscribed to all those guys. David Morgan even outlines how the markets are manipulated. Those guys can make a better case for it than me. But I've read all this stuff. And I've read all the data documents. And to me, it's almost hard to deny. I mean, it's almost undeniable. I've been watching these markets for almost 20 years now, silver and gold. And you'll see the most illiquid times of an overnight trading. And just billions of dollars are just dumped instantly, like in a second. Who would do that? What for-profit trader would do that? And there aren't any. So I think to me, in my mind, the case is closed. However, I don't just throw my hands in the air and say, well, forget it. No. So here's a couple of counterpoints to that. Yes, it can be true. But you can still take like a Rick Rule, Doug Casey approach to these markets. So number one, history also shows manipulations always fail. Go back to the 1970s, the London gold pool, they tried to fix the price. It failed. You can also look at the run in silver and gold from 2000 to 2011. Well, did they manipulate it then? Sure, they tried to. And in 2011, that was one of the few times that the big banks got overrun by the free market. The free market is still bigger than the big banks. And Bear Stearns and JP Morgan had to cover their short positions into a rising silver price. They got overrun by the market. They failed in 2011 before the CME came in and raised margin requirements, whatever, 10, 12 times in like a week. But for that period, the manipulators failed. So they can manage maybe the day-to-day, the wiggles, but they can't manage the overall big picture trajectory. So I don't think it. The free market will ultimately prevail despite their attempts at manipulation. And then number two, and I hate to think like this, but some people I used to work with would say like, "You got to think like a criminal." And I hate to do that, but you can actually see. Don't listen to what the bankers say, but you can see what they're doing. If you look at the commitment trader's report, and if you just look at a price chart, price and volume precede the news, they can't cover their tracks in those two areas. Now, some may argue they can cover their tracks in the COT. I don't think that's the case. I don't think they can cover their tracks in the COT. I don't think so. But on the price chart, you can see price movements and you can see volume. You can see big volume spikes where this isn't the average retail investor. You see big money either moving in or moving out. So technicals and the COT are two tools in our toolbox that can help us kind of be in sync with the manipulators. And it can be used to your advantage. As much as I hate that, I wish it was just a freely traded market. It's not. So if our goal is to make money for our families and achieve financial freedom, you can use the COT and technicals to your advantage. So hopefully that's not too diplomatic of an answer, but that's my take on manipulation.
Speaker 2No, that makes a lot of sense. And you're right. You don't have to like the system. I mean, I don't like anything about the financial system or the monetary system, but owning gold will cause me to benefit from all of this government malfeasance. And so that's one way to, I guess you would call that benefiting from this evil that's going on. Now, I want to talk about the silver miners for a moment here. They're underperforming the S&P year to date. I have to imagine if silver continues to fall, the stocks will get hit a little harder than the metal itself. A lot of these companies looking undervalued. Do you think this is a time to be waiting patiently on the sidelines with cash in hand? Are you entering positions or adding positions at this point after that all-time high you said you scaled out and you've been kind of on the sidelines or slowly adding to positions? Is the silver miners in that category right now for you?
Speaker 3Absolutely. So my short answer, I'll give a kind of a big general answer and then a little bit more specific. My general answer is that I like to almost always keep enough cash on hand that a 30% pullback would be a welcome development. I also like to maintain while maintaining enough exposure that if we just rip to the upside, hey, I'm happy because I've got enough exposure to move that really move the needle in my life. So kind of threading that needle and positioning yourself so you're set to prosper and be content and not lose sleep at night in a variety of different outcomes, whether it goes up or down. So that's a general just advice. Never be all in, never be in all cash. But specifically what I'm doing here right here right now is I'm scaling back in. And like I said, for context, I did exit most of my speculative mining stock positions. And so I say that for context because I'm not one of these people who's always saying bye. I'm not afraid to say here's the time to sell. I'm not like a permable. But I am scaling back in just yesterday, I sent out an alert to our members at Silver Chartist, I put out my shopping day, I think is what I titled it shopping day. And I was nibbling on a couple of high quality mining stocks that I really liked. And I have if then statements, if we pull back to this level, then I will buy this many shares. If we pull back to this level, then I will buy this many shares. So if then statements, and I've got if then statements on the upside as well. And that kind of helps to remove the emotion. And I've got a target weight allocation for every position. So hey, this is my desired target weight. Once I reach it, hey, I'm content. So that kind of helps to manage the emotions because really emotions are our biggest enemy in these highly volatile sectors that are emotionally driven. But short answer is, yes, I think now is a time to be scaling back in. And if you've got, you know, one to two year time horizon, or more, I think the risk reward ratio right now specifically in silver miners is downside risk is small relative to the upside potential. My baseline operating assumption is that that $55 low in silver, I think there's an admittedly subjective 85% probability that that was the low. And if that's the case, yeah, we may go back down to 55. But we're at 61. Like you said, you know, 10% pullback in silver might see it, you know, 15% pullback in the mining stocks, but the upside potential is far greater than that. So I'm gradually tactic tactically scaling in, getting up to my full target weight allocation. I think we've got you know, a quarter or two to really I call it top off the tank to get to the positions you want, and be pre positioned for the next big rally, as the Fed, you know, pivots from hiking to pausing, and then potentially easing into late 2027.
Speaker 2How are you looking at gold versus silver at the moment? Because gold obviously, at the moment seems to have much more of a monetary role, whereas a lot of silver's component is industrial. And so if we saw a recession or a large economic downturn, one would have to imagine the silver Silverprice could get a hit, but the tailwinds behind gold are strictly from a monetary perspective. And in that sense, it seems to be set up for success, perhaps with more certainty than silver. What are your thoughts there on gold versus silver at this
Speaker 3point in time? Yeah, my operating thesis is that silver will outperform gold by a wide margin. That's what I was trying to say, wide margin, although it'll be volatility. And some people, I think, conflate volatility for risk. I don't think silver is necessarily more risky than gold. It's just more volatile. Back in 1980, we got to a 15-1 gold-silver ratio. In other words, you could swap 15 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold. And that's often where major, major bull markets peak, about a 15-1 gold-silver ratio. Well, right now, we're at about 70-1. So if we were to return to that 15-1 gold-silver ratio, silver would outperform gold by almost 5x from here. I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation. Especially based on the mining ratio right now, like silver's actually pulled out of the ground at about a 9-1 ratio. So you could say, hey, that's the natural ratio, 9-1. And then you can also make the case that silver is consumed in industry. So it's mined and then consumed, never to be seen again, where gold, the vast, vast majority of it, is mined and then hoarded in a vault somewhere. So I can make a strong case, and I believe that silver will outperform gold. But I also think there's. Here's where it does carry added risk, you know. I think there comes a time to really push the sell button in silver. I think we're a long way from that. But I think gold does more of like its big move and then becomes more of a kind of a central anchor to the global monetary system in some role. I'm not saying it's an official gold backed currency, but I think gold plays an increasing role and more stabilizes near, you know, whatever its ultimate peak is. Where silver, I think because it's so speculative, it attracts the speculative gamblers. I think it has more of a power, I think it has more of a power to parabolic run off top, and then, you know, an equally sharp decline at some point. So silver, you got to have an exit strategy. I think it'll outperform, but you really got to have an exit strategy. So that's my take on the gold silver ratio.
Speaker 2So you see gold more as potentially generational wealth, something you can put in a vault and hold on to for one's lifetime, pass on to one's heirs, and something that will always be valued as money moving forward, whereas silver can be more of a rollercoaster. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. And I think that's a really good point. And, and there's, you know, the cycles are more prominent to the upside and downside. Is that correct?
Speaker 3Yeah, that's right. I've been accumulating. So I'll just tell you personally what I'm doing and being fully transparent is I've been accumulating physical metal for a long time now, almost 20 years. So I've got, you know, for me, a lot of silver, someone, someone else may not think that's a lot, but for me, it's a lot. So some of it, a portion I plan to swap for gold based on predetermined gold silver ratios. Some of it I will sell to put into what I believe will be valued assets, cash flowing assets at some point. And some I'll just keep, um, knowing that, you know, uh, it'll probably go have a blow off top and come down, but I'll just keep a little bit for like a worst case scenario where you have to barter with silver. You know, you don't want to be bartering with gold. Um, now I'm not one who thinks we're going to be going down to the grocery store, you know, with silver coins for groceries. It's possible. I don't rule it out, but I think a more likely scenario is, you know, inflation is, is, uh, running away so hot that dollars become, like hot potatoes. So, you know, you transact in dollars, but you just don't want to hold them. So you get your dollars, um, turn it into metal. And then when you need to spend it, you know, sell your coins and then go spend your dollars. Um, but I digress a little bit there, but, um, that's my general thoughts on, on that question.
Speaker 2Well, 40 trillion in national debt recently surpassed. You touched on that earlier. Spending appears to be expanding, not contracting when it comes to the government. And the average voter still seems to think that it's going to be a lot of money. So I think it's going to be a lot of money. I think the answer is for the politicians to come in and fix something, which is insane because they cause the problem over people don't see it with all of this in mind. Is there any way out of this debt trap, uh, that we're in and how does this all potentially impact precious metals markets moving forward? You said, you think that gold will, will reenter the monetary system in some capacity. Do you think that will be the end result of a potential collapse in, in this debt-based economy we currently operate in?
Speaker 3I do. Yeah. Such a good question. And we could spend an hour just talking about this or more, but, uh, as you say that, I think about Ludwig von Mises in his book, human action. I think it's like chapter 20. He says, there is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion or currency creation. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, which that's hard for politicians to do or later. And I think that's a good question. I think that's a good question. later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. So I think that Ludwig von Mises answered that question directly. There's no way of escaping this. To put it simpler in my terms, I like to say problems have solutions. Predicaments have managed outcomes. And I think there's no solution to this problem. It's the biggest global debt binge in all of history. And I think we're past the point where we can logically grow our way out of it or even cut our way out of it. And the cutting of the austerity path would be so painful. So I think it's now just managed outcomes. And, you know, I think, unfortunately, we're on a trajectory where those managed outcomes aren't beneficial to the general populace. We're on a trajectory where 100 percent of federal tax receipts, as mentioned, go towards just simply servicing the debt. And I have no doubt that they'll roll out a new system, some kind of new global financial system before we reach that point. And my deep concern is that it'll most certainly shift in a direction that honest money and personal freedom are sacrificed and instead we shift towards more like central bank digital currencies or more centralized control. So that's the direction we're going. You can go read white papers that you don't hear talked about on mainstream news, you know, like the IMF website. And they've got white papers talking about this. You can kind of bet your bottom dollar that they've got a plan in place for the next financial system. And it's going to involve more control, less personal freedom. So that's that's my concern there, not to be all Debbie Downer. I happen to be a Christian who believes in what the Bible says. And, you know, Revelation talks about there's going to come a day where you can't buy or sell without a mark on your hand or on your forehead. Just thought that was interesting point, too. But how does all this affect precious metals? Well, physical silver and gold stored outside of the banking system in your possession or in your possession, they're like the antithesis of centrally controlled money, so a way you can hedge against the direction the world is going. And that's just another reason to own silver and gold, despite, you know, in addition to the currency debasement. It's also more of a personal freedom way to transact in a free market way. If the current trends persist with towards more kind of centralized control, you know, and I hope and pray it doesn't go that direction, but we have to just look at that. Look at the facts. You know, I'm a realist. I'm an optimist, but also a realist. And I see the direction we're going and silver and gold are kind of a hedge against that centralized control.
Speaker 2I believe that in many people watching this, perhaps most people watching this believe that I hope we're actually reaching some new people who this is perhaps a new concept to them. And we've heard talk from several people that have only one or two percent of the population wake up and realize that everything you've been saying about gold and silver and they start taking positions in physical metals, that we would see prices absolutely skyrocket. Ed Steer has said prices we can't imagine pick a number. Do you ascribe to that notion? Do you think it's actually realistic, given how asleep at the wheel the general public seems to be at this point in time?
Speaker 3I do. I do agree with that. The specific percentage of like retail ownership is not a metric that I track closely, but I've heard people like Rick Rule and Ed Steer talk about it, but I do believe I do 100 percent believe that generalist investors will pile into the sector as precious metals begin to outperform general equities and other more conventional assets. And, you know, I think there's like, as you said, the vast majority of people out there, not your listeners because they're here educating themselves, but the vast majority of people out there, maybe they don't understand all the things we're talking about. Debt based fiat currency that, you know, the Mandrake mechanism where money is literally barred into existence, they don't know about any of that. But what they see on a chart is silver and gold outperforming the stock market. And that's what attracts generalist investors, institutions, high net worth individuals. And I think it's that relative outperformance that we got a glimpse of leading up to that January. It's going to attract a lot more capital into the sector, even if they don't understand it, they're just tracking performance. So I think that's going to happen. And for example, back in 1980, the Dow bottomed at 850. Well, where did gold peak? About 850. So that brought us to a Dow gold ratio of one to one. So I think we're coming to a day where one ounce of gold can buy one share of the Dow. Now, we're a long way from that now. Right now, it takes twelve and a half ounces of gold to buy one share of the Dow. So if history repeats, you can I would be looking for gold to outperform general equities by a factor of roughly twelve or twelve and a half X. And as that begins to happen, it's going to attract people who don't understand all the things we're talking about, they just see its relative outperformance. So that's my general answer to that question.
Speaker 2Let's talk about uranium. This is another sector that's been seeing a somewhat significant drawdown recently. The whole sector is essentially underwater year to date. I spoke to Rick about this and posed the question to him, he got kind of angry at me, which was pretty interesting in that he was saying, you know, the setup is so great. You're thinking in a short term mentality. Now, obviously, I have a long term mentality, but I'm asking the question for the benefit of the viewers, because a lot of the uranium faithful have fallen off the map. Uranium Twitter used to be a thing. And it just isn't anymore, because it's no longer the glory days of spot being released and everything soaring to highs and jubilation in the sector. It's now turned into a bit of a slog. And a lot of those people who were so exuberant have been worn out, they've thrown in the towel, and many of them are now disparaging the sector. You see people with uranium in their Twitter handle, now actively disparaging the uranium sector saying uranium's a joke, it's never going to go anywhere. It's a pretty fascinating dichotomy to look at. I bought uranium stocks today, because I think they've gotten sufficiently out of favor. And you know, timing, the market is impossible. I have a long term time horizon, I think the tailwinds behind the sector are extraordinarily strong. I'd love to get your thoughts on the recent drawdown, the sentiment overall, and just how you're viewing the uranium market right now.
Speaker 3Yeah, I agree with your comments. I just bought some uranium shares myself yesterday. And you know, I'm very patient. I don't just go buying all the time. I wait for, you know, key inflection points where I think I'm very patient, I wait for really good value propositions. And if it runs away from me, I'm content because I've got a core position. That doesn't mean you know, hey, it's the bottoms in that. But I'm putting my money where my mouth is when I say I think I've been patiently waiting. And I think we're at a very good value proposition here. A lot of the stocks are down by over 50%. Like I think about Uranium Energy Corp, big liquid name, you know, is up around $22 US. And now it just yesterday got below it got to like $9 and one cent down over 50% for, you know, a pretty quality producer. You know, sure, it's it's a little bit speculative. But this is one of the more quality names in the uranium space, you know, there's not many tickers to pick from down by over half. So I totally agree with you. I just in our video to members this past weekend, I talked about how I like to accumulate markets where no one's talking about they've just kind of got gone quiet. I'm not sure we're to a point where it's like complete capitulation. And I'm not sure we'll get there in uranium where it's like everyone just throwing up. But like you said, it's just boring, like nothing's happening, which I love that. I love that, to be honest. And I'm not sure we'll get there in uranium where it's like complete capitulation. But I love that, to be honest. trade based on the headlines. I'm looking at both sides, taking a measured approach of, hey, my goal was to make income and to make profits, not to predict where oil is going to go in the next quarter or two. I know it's not a very direct answer, maybe not too insightful for anyone, but that's how I'm doing it. That's how I'm playing it right now.
Speaker 2Tell us about Silver Chartist and anywhere else people can go online who want to follow your work.
Speaker 3Yeah. Thanks, Jesse. Thanks for having me on too. I love these conversations. It's a breath of fresh air speaking to you. I would love to interview you someday because I know you have a lot of unique thoughts on this stuff too. I don't have a YouTube channel, but still, I know you know what this stuff inside now as well. But yeah, my website, silverchartist.com, it's a fully transparent over-the-shoulder service. We've got a stock portfolio with real-time alerts whenever I buy or sell. I also generate income. As our focus sectors have really just gone sideways to down, we're making money by selling options. Most people want to buy them and they lose money almost 80%, 90% of the time. Well, you flip that. We've made a lot of money just every single week for the last eight, nine months by selling options. That's an additional thing we do in addition to just having our core portfolio, silverchartist.com. Thank you so much for the opportunity to say all that and thanks for having me on, Jesse.
Speaker 2Absolutely. I'm going to put a link in the description below to silverchartist.com for people who want to check that out. Steve, as always, thank you for coming on and sharing your insights. Yes, sir. Thank you. Thank you for joining us today on Commodity Culture. Earn up to a 4% annual yield on your physical gold, paid in gold ounces through monetary metals. Go to monetary-metals.com slash commodity to find out how to put your gold to work for you. Link is in the show notes below.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Steve Penny expected silver's January peak to be followed by a longer consolidation than most analysts anticipated, similar to the 1974 analog, and exited most speculative precious metals positions before the peak.
  2. He expects the Fed to hike once or twice more, then pause and eventually print, with precious metals retesting prior highs in late 2027 or early 2028 before a deflationary impulse.
  3. He believes the ultimate catalyst for targets like $300+ silver and $10,000+ gold will be the Fed's response to the next panic-driven selloff, not a prolonged tightening cycle.
  4. He views the main bear case—that Kevin Warsh becomes a Volcker-style hawk—as highly unlikely because raising rates meaningfully would crush an economy burdened by $40 trillion in debt.
  5. While he believes silver and gold are the most manipulated markets, he argues manipulation ultimately fails and that technicals and the COT report can be used to investors' advantage.
  6. He is gradually scaling back into high-quality silver miners, viewing downside risk as small relative to upside potential, with $55 likely the low.
  7. He expects silver to outperform gold by a wide margin, citing the current ~70
  8. He is accumulating uranium stocks amid washed-out sentiment, seeing a strong long-term value proposition and tailwinds despite the sector's ongoing slog.

Summary:

Steve Penny joins Commodity Culture to discuss silver's sharp pullback from its January peak, which he anticipated. He frames the current market as a "1974 moment," noting that silver's 484% run over 27 months closely mirrors the 423% move into February 1974, followed by a roughly 50% drawdown and extended consolidation. He exited most speculative precious metals positions before the peak and is now patiently scaling back in.

His operating framework centers on the Federal Reserve: he expects a hike or two, then a pause, and ultimately renewed money printing, with precious metals retesting prior highs in late 2027 or early 2028 before a deflationary impulse. He argues the true catalyst for targets like $300+ silver and $10,000+ gold will be the Fed's response to the next panic-driven selloff, since a Volcker-style tightening cycle is impossible with $40 trillion in national debt. He dismisses the bear case that Kevin Warsh will act as a hawk.

On manipulation, Penny believes silver and gold are the most manipulated markets but argues manipulation always fails and that technicals and the COT report can be used to investors' advantage. He is gradually adding high-quality silver miners, expecting silver to outperform gold substantially given the ~70:1 gold-silver ratio, while warning silver demands an exit strategy. He is also buying uranium stocks amid washed-out sentiment, citing strong long-term tailwinds.

FAQs

He believes silver is in a consolidation phase after an interim peak, similar to 1974. He expects it to retest previous highs in late 2027 or early 2028 before a deflationary impulse.

The main bear case is that the new Fed chair could be more hawkish than expected, like Paul Volcker, and raise rates aggressively. However, he considers this highly unlikely due to the massive national debt.

Yes, he believes silver and gold are the most manipulated markets on the planet. However, he also believes manipulation always fails in the long run and investors can use technicals and the COT report to their advantage.

Steve Penny is scaling back into high-quality silver miners, believing the downside risk is small relative to the upside potential. He recommends a gradual approach with a one-to-two year or longer time horizon.

He expects silver to outperform gold by a wide margin, potentially returning to a 15-to-1 gold-silver ratio. However, he sees gold as more of a generational wealth anchor, while silver is more volatile and requires an exit strategy.

He is bullish on uranium long-term and has recently bought uranium shares, seeing the current drawdown as a good value proposition. He likes accumulating in markets that have gone quiet and out of favor.

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