Speaker 1This is the Commodity Culture Podcast, where we interview prominent investors, fund managers, analysts, and company CEOs to give you an edge when it comes to investing in the commodity space. Francis Hunt, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I want to start things off by getting your view on the silver market because I just had Michael Oliver on the show, and he said his old price target of $300 plus silver, scrap that, we're going much higher, and he said he wouldn't be shocked to see us hit $1,000 silver sometime in the next year. This isn't way out into the future. Of course, the furor that this has kicked up online, both on X and on YouTube in the comments section, is very interesting to see, most people calling him crazy, out of his mind. Let's get to $100 before we start talking about $1,000. I wonder what your thoughts are here. Do you think his targets are realistic, and how do you see the silver market playing out for the rest of 2026 and beyond?
Speaker 2I don't want to start passing judgment on some other analyst's work, especially if I don't know their assumptions. We like to think of ourselves as the biggest bull, but I think in terms of timeframes, Michael certainly usurps us. I want to, in a separate vein, without directing this at the person you mentioned at all, say there also is a tendency for what I call the sort of Max-Kaiser syndrome, where it turns into a kind of pissing contest of who throws out the biggest number. Again, I hasten to add, it's not an accusation being cast at Michael directly. You've got to have a foundation for what, A, you're putting forward. Ours is technical. We have a method, and we have projection. We have projected targets. So we will never say a number just because it's an out-round, headline-grabbing number. If it is, it's because technically that's what it generated. So we made the forecast well before Michael and others. So again, it's not about the person you chose to mention there. I don't want to wade into a brawl with other people's opinions, particularly. We said 333 were in the Jerusalem Post quite well before Michael Oliver's controversial call for 300. The one difference we made is we didn't cap ourselves on timeframe, and there's a number of reasons for that, because our targets are generated technically, and we have a long stop time date by when they should perform, and it's very far out. Typical HVF breakouts sometimes only use 5%, 10%, 15% of that time, but it's a variable we have very little control about. And I've found from my own. As someone who puts. There's a lot of numbers out there and forecasts in the public space, there's no point in putting your head through a noose on something you don't have real control on. Sometimes when we see, particularly now, there's a lot of behind-the-scenes debt contagion that is going to lead to destruction of fiat and debt. And Michael could well prove accurate, by the way, but that is an X-factor variable that I can't put my thumb on. So in my opinion, this whole JPY crisis was actually a U.S. debt-based crisis when Japan needed to sell treasuries. Forget the narrative you're being spun. They create the story for you. You see this with Fauci on injecting experimental medicine into pregnant women. They spoke one language, it's no red flags, and then internally they were speaking something entirely different. In fact, they're usually the inverted corollary. So the statist organizations. Whether it's health, wealth, or anything, have a habit of having duality, a duality of morality, I like to call it. And our game has always been the inversion perversion, decoding the signal and getting to the right answer. So in my opinion, we had Japan wanting to sell treasuries. We got rates running on the 10-year, the 30-year, showing that the market is not that liquid. Remember, it's a 24 trillion market cap from one year. It's absolutely huge. But clearly, there is a check out any time you like, but you can never leave Hotel California syndrome by the time you yourself own a trillion of those bonds. Your hand's too big in that cookie jar, it ain't coming out unless you drop all the sweeties. That's pretty much how it goes. So for me, there is clearly a debt-based collapse. Inside of that, if you suddenly have a complete sinkhole, you could initially even have a sell-off in a disinflationary event in metals, and then a super surge. And all Michael's predictions, or anyone else for that matter, as I say, he's not part of my discussion or analysis in that sense, could indeed come true. We are a lot closer than we've ever been. And many people will tell you, but they've been holding it together since the 80s, you know, all of this. Here's a key point on that that might play into Michael's hands in terms of the risk he's taken in timeframe, which I prefer not to take, is that post-2020, the bond market turned, and that is irrevocable. And that's our, we've said many times, it's the most important call we ever made in September. It's not the best, it's not the wisest, whatever, it's no degrees. It's the most important for reset. It is the point where nominally, bonds are failing to go up in value anymore, and interest rates continue to go up. They continue to typically grind higher, despite everyone's best intentions, despite a weak economy, maybe for retail, despite a lot of things, because when debt devalues, it's absolutely one part, one half of the seesaw that sees rates go up. And just for the dollar milkshakers, and then I'll hand back, dollar was supposed to go up on rising rates, and normally in a strong economy, where you are not got a debt-based crisis. If the dollar in America is growing strongly, and the Fed is increasing rates, you actually get a flow of money into the dollar and into T-bulls that sees both the rates go down, the bond values go up, and the dollar strengthen because of liquidity attraction. What we've actually seen in the Bessing event with Japan is that just the possibility, and we don't know how much actually got sold, we don't get to see those numbers, of a major nation that is a holder trying to check out of Hotel California USTs, led to the debt valuations going down, rates spiking, and the dollar went down on that. Rates going up, milkshakers supposed to suck all the money and all the liquidity of the rest of the world. No, it's a distress. There's a different kind of rates go up, and that is a distress-based one, and that's what happens when you're excessively overborrowed. That event. If it goes into complete contagion, could bring Michael home, so people who are mocking him or getting involved in a brawl, he may end up being correct, and he will have taken a big risk on timing because it has gone on for long. However, I highlight, we are now in the red zone since 2020. We're six years now where everyone's had that amount of time to work out that the reserve asset of debt is no longer truly being seen by central banks as a true reserve asset. And rates are being supported at these levels and bond markets are being supported by everyone can buy and everyone can buy, but hey, don't sell that. We'll let you lend against it. Hey, don't sell that. Now, price discovery mechanisms are based on freedom to buy and sell in reasonable size on an ongoing basis where the price discovery mechanism does that. My opinion, and quite possibly Michael's reason, although you best ask him for why, is that that not being a true market actually means we're maintaining a Ponzi and at any moment it could go down, and then his timing opinion will come home. By the way, he's also not the first to say four digits. He may have been. Who knows? I don't follow all his forecasts, but we've said the same. After our 333, you get four digits. In fact, we've called for single-digit gold-silver ratio, which will almost certainly see four digits. But we've given it to you in a different way without a time stop because I can't 100% say I can put a handle on when it all blows up, but I will say we are in injury time. Gold has historically been
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Speaker 2Great. I hear your question on the war and I aim to answer it. I just want to tag on a final little bit piece onto the once you've done 300 going 1000 and beyond as a final full stop on that whole discussion. When you are in the convexity phase, you need to think of it as a graph. This is a faith-based system that has been eroding slowly. Suddenly it steepens when the masses, the normal curve, realize that you're in an unsustainable system. You, I, Michael, and most of your viewers are in the early adopters. You're in the early adopters. You're part of the normal curve. Metalheads generally are and have been warning this is coming. Mainstream land and their wealth is still sitting in mainstream land assets. Once you get the tipping point, you get complete convexity, a very fast steepening. He's absolutely right. I concur with the theory and we have had and spoken of this ourselves. We called it the Ernest Hemingway bankruptcy curve. You go slowly at first, which is a very fast curve. You go slowly at first, you go slowly at first, which is a very fast curve. You go slowly at first, not assess we've ever had a peak oil situation that's in abundance. It's not lazy age dinosaur bone juice and we've run out of dinosaur skeletons. There's a lot of misnomer, the whole fossil fuels narrative. People need to wade their way through that. There is cost for extraction and it is a commodity, but gold is money and oil is not and it's energy. So overall, there was a substitution for a spell because of the urgency that oil represented. However, as things have settled, we have worked through that. It's been about since the high here, end of Jan, and we were watching this 4,000 key level of significance that was holding. We talked about the three impulse falling wedge, which is unique to HVF method. There it is. And then you had the third impulse here and we were expecting a falling wedge break and we had the smaller patterns. This is a weekly chart of gold. We had the smaller pattern than we did the video. We even gave it to people on Freeview. They wouldn't have been the first. If you're in our community, you get it first, but we showed everybody this is most likely to break upside. We expect it to be midweek next week. That was last Wednesday. We were referring to from the Friday before and that YouTube remains up there. So we were buying aggressively long here and we've benefited from a beautiful spurt. I will point out you had the key spurt. Then you have a secondary spurt, not quite as big, a bit more churn and you get another spurt. It's marginally higher, higher and down. So people should watch out a little bit. I've actually reined back my leverage longs. We had a lot of leverage longs. It's worth proving we actually trade the markets. We don't throw out opinions. There's a couple of the entries on different platforms, for example. That's where we bought. I've reined them all back. I took snapshots. Snapshots of them because we get people, you know, one proof of concept. We trade. Those are entries that ended up our trailing stops. Those are all largely closed. Those were entries over here. You are losing some of the momentum and we have a CPI number to come today. So there's a slightly greater risk. There's a slightly greater risk. CPI is due to come. And personally, I think it's a CP line numbers. I joke. Many others do the same. We don't trust it. What's the problem for Besson's? Bonds. Rates going up, value going down. In actual fact, if he gets rates to go down, normally bad for the dollar, because we have this distress vibes, if bonds calm down, I expect actually dollar will firm a little. Contrary, totally contrarian to what is normally the case. Because this is not a healthy market situation. It's a crisis situation that's not being told to you as a crisis. You've been told, keep quiet and carry on. You know, all the doomers, ignore them, the church, everything. things under control. We're just helping Japan, you know, all the cope that they feed you. But in actual fact, if we undershoot on inflation, I think it will be in their best interest to manufacture a number that is equal to the CPI. So if you ask me to guess the data that is coming out later today, and it's 1247 here in Cyprus, and it'll be out at Hopos 3, the CPI number, I'm going to say the year-on-year will meet or be below, because that's what they need. And the CPI year-on-year will meet or below the expectation. So that's a CPI number of 3.4. I say 3.4 lower rather than higher, even though I personally assess inflation to be far higher than what they say, and not necessarily declining at all. They get what they need. Besant desperately needs the pressure off the tenure. And the Trump pushing up the oil price on Hormuz stories and pushing up costs via your primary question, which is all about the escalation in the war, was in fact inflationary and helped contribute to the crisis Besant now finds himself in. Don't forget, Japan needs to buy oil, gets a lot of it through Hormuz specifically, and making it more expensive for Japan has pushed their inflation, which has seen them want to repatriate their treasuries. So in an interconnected world, that was a foot shot. Going along with Bibi Netanyahu's attack on Iran was a shot in the foot for Americans themselves, American inflation, and the tenuous situation of having lots of other people own your debt. So let me hand back.
Speaker 1I want to talk about gold and silver miners as well, because yourself and many guests on this show, you know, a lot of them looking very undervalued at these levels. We even saw some of the big producers, the biggest and the best producers fall rather dramatically after reporting record earnings in Q1. Now, of course, the miners are also reversing course a little bit and heading to the upside, much like the metals themselves. But I'd love to get your thoughts here on if you think this is a good entry point for taking a position in the gold and silver mining space.
Speaker 2Generally, I'm a fan of gold and silver. I'm a fan of gold and silver. I'm a fan of miners. The only reason why I've put metals beyond miners is certification and the great taking. In terms of making profits, whether you get to realize those and take them home if we have a counterparty risk failure and all of that, that's the risk that worries me. In other words, I have abnormal situational risk, the same kind of risk that will spike metals as per Michael's potential projection that you were mentioning. If we look at the falling wedge here, very similar to the precious metals itself.
Speaker 1So you're using Hekla mining specifically as an example here.
Speaker 2I've chosen Hekla because it's big in silver, and I'm sure you've got a lot of silver heads. Note how the $4,000 gold had a bit of a flaw. In silver, it was around $55,000, $56,000. And here in Hekla, at about $14. So it's broken out. That was one example. But I mean, if you just take the gold miners, I don't know whether there's enough volume in silver. We'll have a look at it. But very similar falling wedge, great breakouts. The problem you have is this is not a great trading tool because of the gaps. It's a great investment tool and to stay long. But I think this period of continuation pattern that was eroding to the downside has triggered and popped. But the ideal entry was, again, when you were holding a level here at about $19,000, $195,000 on the gold miners junior ETF, if that's what you want. For investing, again, I would prefer to have the stocks and I'd prefer to have stock certificates than an ETF. But we're just looking at this as a general proxy. Let's have a look at Silge, which is the junior silver miners. I mean, the market cap here must be very small. You can see how it's the same. And that's a beautiful falling wedge and a beautiful break. Note the gaps. So if you get it wrong, and you have normal stop losses, you're going to have a lot of money. So if you get it wrong, you're going to have a lot of money. You could get hurt on the downside. It's going to be higher volatility. If you're an investor and you're comfortable with ETFs, I would caution on that front. Generally, you could buy and hold this as a blue pot holding and just try and manage for your counterparty risk. I prefer to have a certificate of a number of silver miners. And for that, there's quite a few you can choose from. First Majestic is always pursued ounces in the ground. So if you're a silver miner, aggressively, Fresnillo is a very big producer. There's also platinum miners to think about if you're okay with the white metals. So there's quite a broad discussion, but they all seem to have fallen into the same kind of pattern. You note, I haven't changed the draw and they're all fitting. The hand fits in the glove that has been drawn. So the story remains pretty much the same. It's about the silver price. Some of them have overpopped relative to others. In other words, it's about the price. So that's one of the things that's going on. And then there's also a lot of other things that are coming out of the falling wedge. But there's one key point that's where I differ a tiny bit, potentially from Michael, or not that he can't be right. I think he can be right. But I think you also have to weigh the possibility of a major demand destroying event on tech and the hyperscalers and the amount of skullduggery that is very much subprime 2.0 vibes that I'm getting. We don't have a lot of time to do that. We're just less aware of it because it doesn't involve retail and strippers buying five buy-to-let apartments now. We've been sort of insulated from the in-between borrowing by private equity, private credit, which is a fancy word of saying opaque and not very transparent. And you already have investors that have been locked out of the fund. And you now have the debt markets where effectively there's a soft lockout for excessive selling. Californian Teachers Association was forced to borrow when they needed to sell treasuries to make a payroll. The Gulf states got instant swap lines on your whole muse question when they lost all their tourists and their oil income was damaged through bombing instead of being allowed to sell treasuries. So it is, I warn about this hotel California syndrome. It's not a symmetrical market. The bid and buying is welcomed. The selling is not. And this, I mean, there was a staking token called HEX where the owner and founder of HEX, the owner and founder of HEX, the owner and founder of just had everyone buy and promote and then insisted the smartest thing to do is to stake so that those buyers never became sellers. And he managed to run a micro cap to a theoretical valuation of 77 billion in valuation at its peak at 50 cents when it started at a fraction of a cent. So this is the fallacy of market cap. If untested by reasonable or at least a decent percent of the market cap in buying and selling by independent parties on a regular basis does not occur, you are having a managed market cap theoretical valuation. It's a very theoretical valuation. So I want people to bear this in mind and that's where the debt market is. So I think if you get a bit of a crush here, I don't assess necessarily we're at new highs by the end of the year, as encouraging as this is, because I think there's other volatility and other stories that potentially lean in on this. I would say you're a 25%, 20, 25% probability that, you know, silver's through 121 and gold's through 5,600 by Christmas day. And all these stocks are well through that. I would say the majority is we are probably in range where we are. And there's even a small possibility. I wouldn't put it as high, but you have to keep multiple scenario potential open. If you have a major demand destroying event September, you have to keep multiple scenario potential open. If you have a major demand destroying event December, October, you could even be below this shortfall floor level. That will be an absolute buying opportunity in the metal space. But that will be a situation where people have to sell anything because they've got to for margin call reasons and a variety of other reasons. Don't forget Russia sold some gold. I think Turkey sold some gold during Hormuz when they needed to just deal with quick liquidity. So people that have to, have to. And it's the stuff that's always wanted that gets sold. And it can end up in price during that period. So let me hand back.
Speaker 1Yeah, great analysis there. I want to talk about Fort Knox and Senator Rand Paul visiting recently. He had a quick look around. He said, it's all good, guys. All the gold is here. Now, somehow in a few hours, supposedly he was able to personally count all the gold himself as well as test it for purity. A very, very impressive feat. What are your thoughts here? Should we take Rand at his word or is he just towing the party line to convince the American people everything is fine and dandy?
Speaker 2Yes, I actually dealt with this. Quite clearly, it's not a non-serious walkabout, talk about PR type situation. There was a friend, Brent Johnson, that says, you know, you guys can't not believe the U.S. has the gold, but at the same time believe that America, China and Russia does, you know, almost as if there's a symmetrical situation. This was his comment. I'm hoping you're still sharing screen here. And this was our response. get quite a detailed response. His comment is on this Kentucky, you know, Iran is Kentucky, Rand Paul, believing China, Russia does have all the gold they say they do, plus more despite no audits, while at the same time believing the US does not have the gold, is a good example of those who like to point out PSYOPs getting PSYOP themselves. So on the surface, that sounds a very smart observation. That's where you typically apply the law of symmetry in all directions. In actual fact, there's two different parts being played here. There is the aging bodybuilder who took steroids, still big, still kind of muscular, but a little bit sick and yellow jaundiced around the eye, still trying to show he's the king of the pub, swinging his pool cue and threatening folks and saying, I'm the baddest man around here. And there's the younger wannabes that are healthier. They're fitter, but are hiding their muscles and their workouts under big, you know, flabby clothes and keeping their heads down and are in stealth mode. There is no symmetry here. And I responded to this in grand detail. So it's ironic you answered. There's no symmetry at all. One is fading into the dying light. The other is creeping up, seeking stealth and understatement. They don't want to be seen as a too big a challenge too soon. They're too busy stacking. They're too busy getting stronger, too busy. Building. They don't want this thing to blow up. They're like, hey, hey, we ain't got no problem with the big gas bodybuilder. We're just quietly getting stronger and doing what we do. And I would actually say understatement is the everything that's come out of China is a gross understatement. You're meant to believe they have a couple of thousands in here. And I've gone into rhyme and verse. The asymmetry is the point. A hundred percent. One is trying to act tough to keep heads down. And the other is trying to act tough to keep heads down. And the other is trying to look weaker than it is. That's the art of war. It's absolutely Chinese wisdom. Act weak when you are strong, especially as you're getting stronger. And the best wars are ones you don't end up having to fight. He will fall under his own weight. You might not even have to hit him and run the chance of an assault charge. All of those things are actually applying. So it's a fascinating discussion. And you said, hey, all looks grand without committing yourself overly. Well, that is absolutely what a fraud would be like. People will continue to hold the line until it's forced on them without over committing themselves. Again, I point you to Fauci's over commitments that are now coming back to bite him and vague language. So it is in America's best interest. By gold well beyond any level of production going from America via Switzerland and via Hong Kong and into directly into via Beijing into China. For five months, the only reason you didn't have a new record deficit, which you had at the beginning of the year, is because in the product category, the biggest export from America is gold. And that is, I mean, that is huge. And I like to remind people of why there is a real trade deficit problem. You look at the European Union over here and you'll see there's a deficit of trade of 223. Mexico, think China, Japan and offshored production as well, 203 billion. Vietnam, very similar, diversified out from China. And then China and Hong Kong itself at 173. You have a real deficit problem. You're having to give away gold, real money for the fact that you don't sell enough to those nations of American goods. That right there is a structural problem that won't go away and it undermines the dollar. And for those in other exchanges with our milkshake maximalists that said, well, we're up, the dollar is actually up for the year. Well, we're talking about the last two weeks. It's chronically down. Second of all, it's at 99, which means since issuance, it's even down. Third of all, the dollar index is the most leper colony comparison. You're comparing yourself purely mainly to the euro. You've got the Japanese yen and the pound in there. When in actual fact, your largest trade deficit nation, if you count Mexico as part of China, is in fact China. And you should be looking at the USD versus the CNH. So there's a lot of funny analysis here since the beginning of the year. That's how you're down against the CNH. That is the Chinese yuan. That is your biggest essential trade nation. If you say, well, some of it's going through Mexico. What about the Mexican peso? Well, here's the dollar against the Mexican peso since all that manufacturing got put in Mexico. This is the performance. Let's get that same performance from the beginning. Let's get that same performance from the beginning of the year. So the dollar is losing. Here it is. How are you done? That was the beginning of the year that you are watching the dollar decay against its biggest trade nations. So no, the dollar isn't up for the year. The crisis was the last two weeks. It was violently down against all currencies in the last two weeks. And even year to date, if you do a true weighted trade basket index, not the dollar index of leper colony, Western nations that are all going to collapse together, which is largely meaningless. You compare it to those that are selling you the stuff you need. You are down, down, down, and your yields are higher. That is not milkshake land. That is distress on the debt and the dollar. Now you might get a bottleneck and you could have a situation where you do get a one source spike. We've never said it can't happen, but the real trade is gold. Any talk about the milkshake is trying to make the, the dollar a momentary spike in dollar key thing. Good luck. If you think you're going to catch it and trade it, you need to protect your capital. We're talking about a collapse. The only thing that does is physical metals held in your hands. Um, not ETFs, not anything else. This piece of silver is always on my desk. It never gets smaller. It doesn't rust. It stays there. It has the same numbers that always had on it. It weighs the same. That's what you want, uh, for seeing this thing out, Jesse. It really is. So, uh, I threw a lot in there, but hopefully it's interesting for you.
Speaker 1Yeah, absolutely. And I, I didn't really like Brent Johnson's response there. You know, I follow Brent Johnson and I think he says a lot of smart things and I agree with many things he says and I disagree with others. Um, but to compare it that way and say, well, we don't know China and Russia's numbers. So you should just believe America's numbers because some Senator walked around. I mean, that doesn't make sense. They're not playing the main guy.
Speaker 2They're not playing the world currency. They don't have to disclose. I mean, who else do you know any level of honesty with audits on their metals? If you're putting yourself forward as saying, trust us, we are the global currency. You are the one that has to prove there is an asymmetry. If I say I'm the leader, I must show that I won all the battles. I was a great general. I must have that history. I must be able to prove it, uh, and that I'm worthy. Uh, and in that sense, uh, America doesn't. And by the way, known liars lie and Nixon, error was printing Fiat for the Vietnam war where it was not backed where they were supposed to be running a fully backed system and they cheated and lied and the French caught them and the rest of Europe caught them and asked for their gold instead of the paper. So you already have a history of dishonesty. Sorry to say that it's not a projection on the average American citizen. It's on the cartel, the transnational cartel that runs the system and lies on your behalf. That's what led to it. Um, and so, uh, you know, known lies lie. And if they proven liars, don't trust them. Uh, and that was no audit. It was meaningless fluff. And I don't even know why they chose to do that because it doesn't add value. It takes away. It's just further confidence in the non audit approach, which Trump and Elon and all of them promised. And they just started to have that one go to sleep again. And now they've reawoken it. Um, and Besson's even had a comment. Uh, so, you know, in terms of the gold, we, we don't feel we've done too bad. You know, we said, you're not getting a reval when everyone was expecting July the 4th reval. So you won't get that. It doesn't serve America to do it. Why would they do it? There were a swathe of YouTubes about reval. A lot of people on the 24th said, when the China system goes on, I said, it'll pass like a dead parrot. It's more significant for the longterm. Yes. But you're not going to have an event on the 24th. It's not going to happen. Um, we, we said, this is the bottom, uh, and we bought, but I don't know if it just means you rip to new highs from here. I've already closed a large part of my leverage loans, uh, on here and I'm watching there's a CPI number. if they bring it in soft you might go a little bit more but there's also a return move on any falling wedge that's broken and we have now broken and run really hard we've made absolute fortunes out of just the short move uh recently we're very lucky that's what hvf method does now we take it we bank our profits and we watch for the next it's not a low it's not a low uh risk high probability trade anymore once it starts getting into the thick of the range we could finish the year anywhere between 4000 and 55 that would be probably my majority bias you can 20 maybe make a new high and if we get hit with the big shock you could have an event where you dip below the 4000 that would be an absolute accumulate moment for me and it's one that's likely to be rejected violently as with cv19 gold dips first before it goes much harder so sometimes there's a flush out to the downside and it and it kills retail certainly leverage traders and it even gets a lot of investors miffed and bailing and it's a great soft hands eliminator you get a flush out to the downside 2008 you fell to 690 before you broke a thousand and you stayed above it and you ended up running to 1927 cv19 same thing before you made the 2021 highs so people have to watch out for the complexity of price movements as a technical trader i wouldn't make the same statements as michael although i respect his rights to do that there are a lot of things that could still transpire between now and the end of the year i also and i'll put a final nail on this before handing back the call purchasing got a lot a lot of people ramping the calls are going oh people are buying twenty thousand dollars all part and parcel for why you'll be making a new high the insiders know something believe you me i'm with most conspiracies most of the time uh there are insiders there is a cacocracy but i can say to you this technically that doesn't look like it's going to be a good look like it's real and many people once they've just had a blow off in gold and our holders uh that are got calls will sell calls at four and a half four seven to earn income just to the end of the year this is option strategies and people are only noticing the calls with these ridiculous lehigh strikes why buy them if they're not going to happen because of capital management if i buy unlimited if i write an unlimited call option that means i'm short gold because i hold it let's say and i think look it's not going to do much till the end of the year if i write a call at four thousand eight hundred and somebody buys it who thinks it's going to go higher than four thousand eight hundred i have unlimited risk and the amount of margin i need to keep in my account is extreme if i turn that into a call a vertical call spread and i bought and i actually purchase a call even if it's miles out i want to spend as little as possible i don't care it's going to expire worthless it caps the amount of money you can get nine tenths of your margin back because it's no longer an unlimited loss just by owning calls yourself you go from having unlimited loss above four thousand eight hundred to only losing a size loss between four eight and ten thousand fifteen thousand or wherever you're buying so what you got was a lot of call writing after the blow off high on the what i would call a localized high during this period and they've earned premium for that so there's a lot of there's a lot of in the gold community in the precious metal community there's sometimes a bit of bs on the bull side that needs eliminating and i'm not in a hurry to be the max kaiser of gold throwing out a million dollars at the end of every year and being never being right but being the biggest cheerleader all our targets have technical based geometric generated numbers that have come we haven't sucked them out because they're big round numbers with a headline
Speaker 1seeking well francis amazing conversation you shed so much light on the precious metal space for us today why don't you tell us about the market sniper and anywhere else people can follow your work online
Speaker 2sure the youtube channel the market sniper we focus on hvf method i aim to achieve three things for everybody who watches first of all it's 100 free you can subscribe if you like the videos uh to talk us close to what i assess to be the the underlying truth of the state of the global economy and what you should be doing about it this is reset times we coined and had in our brand the reset sniper before klaus schaub even used the uh the name it has the power off button when you're frustrated with your computer and you're done uh i that's my level of it uh competence by the way uh and we we feel that the typical traditional financial advice that's by an insurance policy and you know 40 60 uh bonds versus uh equities portfolio that you get that you typically have a sales commission based rep come and flog you is not going to serve you for the transition from this failing system into the new system the market sniper is dedicated to help you be reset proof to the highest degree uh on that so building wealth during this huge opportunities will come about through the distortions that have been created although for most people they will represent crises you can profit from that you can protect those profits that you make and you can also build a diverse optionality of existence across the planet where the downside will uh be more muted in areas not in the western hemisphere and i am afraid most people in the west don't realize that the downside will be more muted in areas not in the western this is coming hardest for them uh as a westerner myself um and you've really got to prepare financially and that's the focus of the channel so go and sub go watch on youtube also on x under the same at the market sniper well i will
Speaker 1put links to both of those in the description as well as the market sniper website francis as always extremely enlightening conversation thank you for coming on great
Speaker 2to be with you jesse thanks for the invite
Speaker 1thank you for joining us today on commodity culture earn up to a four percent annual yield on your physical gold paid in gold ounces through monetary metals go to monetary dash metals dot com slash commodity to find out how to put your gold to work for you link is in the show notes below
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