Shutdown-Deal erfreut die Märkte – Anlagechef der Deutschen Bank ordnet ein / So investieren Anleger in seltene Erden

Hello and welcome to Handelsblatt Today. We are here every day to talk about important news and their importance for the financial world. It's great that you are here. Today we are going to talk about the probably finished shutdown in the USA. Eight members of the Democratic Party have stood together with the Republicans for a transition. It's a good start for the stocks market, but there is also a long-term effect on the long-term effects of the shutdown. What investors should know now is what I'm going to talk to Christian Neuting, the global head of private bank at the German Bank, directly after the market report. In the second part of the broadcast, it's about rare earths and how investors can invest in this topic. Today is Tuesday, the 11th of November, Al-Laaf and Helau to all of the Rheinländer, and I am Nele Domen. Ah, it's nice to hear. Yes, we are starting, despite the carnival, as always, with the view of what has moved the market and investors today. And today I am talking to my colleague Katharina Schneider from the Frankfurt office. Hello Katharina. Hello Nele. Yes, the euphoria of the shutdown at the Börsen, which seems to be a little off today afternoon, can't help the carnival mood either. No, it doesn't look like that. In Frankfurt, you get carnival without filming as much as in Düsseldorf and Cologne. And yes, it seems that the investors are living through, especially a change of the feeling. The euphoria of the shutdown just started, and you will talk about it again next year. Yesterday the DAX went up to 1.7 percent, and today in the morning you thought, "Yay, he has managed the market of 24,000 points." But in the afternoon, the investors already seemed to be going out of the booth. And last but not least, the DAX is currently at the 24,000 point market. That the mood of the German market has increased, also shows the current demand for the transfer of DAX sentiment. For which about 9,000 private investors and private investors have been asked. After that, the mood has currently reached the lowest standard since June. Study author Heibel is bringing this back to a general uncertainty on the market. Some doubts, especially in the question of whether investment in AI companies is worth artificial intelligence. For exaggerated moods, the ZEW Index also ensures that, after a look at the lustful investors, it is currently more pessimistic than in October on the coming six months. For uncertainty, the data to the US economy has not yet been published due to the shutdown. But in the next few weeks, it should probably be followed. Okay, and then let's take a quick look at how the indexes have run worldwide. What numbers can you show us there? Exactly, the stockings in Asia have increased between 0.4 and 0.7 percent today. Also, the Eurostox 50 was able to connect to its profits on Monday. Until today afternoon, a plus of around 0.6 percent has been achieved. The US stockings were noted briefly after the trade began to decline. During the Dow Jones Light in Plus, the S&P 500 and the Technology Index in Nasdaq were opened in the minus. Okay, then let's take a look at the numerous companies that have presented their quarterly numbers today. For example, Porsche. How did the numbers turn out and what was the action course? Porsche has been winning the course today. The papers amounted to about 1 percent. In fact, the result of the first nine months of the year has deteriorated. Over the previous period, around 900 million euros were spent on 1.6 billion euros. But due to a improved financial structure, the company has now set up well. There were also some losers. In particular, the Rüstungskonzern Hensol is to be called. The company is expected to have a stronger growth rate in the next few years. The next year, a growth rate of about 10 percent has already been announced. Everything sounds good, but the suppliers did not seem to be satisfied. And they sent the action course to Taifat. In the tip of the coin, the action rate was about 8 percent. And then there was the Japanese tech investor Softbank. They also put in numbers, but above all, they also sold all their video stocks. Why is that? Yes, in total, Softbank divided into parts in value of 5.8 billion dollars. That was unexpected in the end, but it is part of Softbank's strategy. Because through the sale of stocks, new money is free for investments in artificial intelligence such as OpenAI, Robotik and the chip industry. Some parts were sold on the US mobile phone company T-Mobile and on the German telecom. The video stocks reacted briefly to trade openings, giving the paper about 3 percent. Katarina, thank you for your overview and nice greetings to Frankfurt. Thank you too, see you. And for you, as always, the important clue. Everything we talk about in this podcast is not an investment recommendation, but it serves its information. For possible losses we will not take over, no bribery and possible wins we will not be involved. The USA is currently experiencing an exception. 40 days without functioning federal authorities, 670,000 employees who were sent to the forced vacation. Millions of emergency citizens and citizens who do not receive their state support chaos on the food delivery stations and airports. And all this because large parts of the US authorities are currently not financed. But many observers wonder why suddenly eight deviants from the Democratic faction together with the Republicans made a compromise, which achieved the necessary majority of 60 senators. For the end of the shutdown, the vote is only still missing through the House of Representatives. But the Republicans have the majority anyway. And the letter from President Donald Trump. The big additions that the leadership of the Democrats actually wanted to create with the resistance are therefore first of all from the table. And the goal to ensure the access to health insurance for low-income people, that was missed. And it actually looked pretty good for the Democrats. In the past weeks they were able to draw several elections and show the youngest questions that the people who caused the shutdown were more at the Republican Republic. Why so click in there and let yourself be divided? This question is being discussed in the new episode "Trump Watch", which will be released on Donnerstag. And that's why I would like to recommend it here. Today we're going to ask ourselves what all this means for investors and investors. Because the market reaction today to a close end of the shutdowns were first of all positive. But in particular, the apology from the USA should be kept in mind. And that's why I'm looking forward to my guest today in the show, the global head of the private customer bank at the German Bank, Christian Nolding. Hello Mr. Nolding. Hello, nice to be here. Yes, nice that you were able to. Mr. Nolding, the integration in Washington. It seems that the market was first in a hurry and it went up a lot with the courses. Could the stock market rise to a new level if new liquidity comes into the market again after the shutdown? What do you think? Yes, I wouldn't say absolutely. First of all, it is of course an integration that shifts the time frame a little back. So the system is not completely over. But there is now really the great opportunity that next time the government can work fully again. And then you have to see until the end of January if these individual law textbooks can be distributed. In this respect, it is positive, because of course a shutdown also costs growth. And it has already been historically seen for a very long time now. And therefore, of course, the market is positive when the shutdown is first. And yes, I do not think that we can see new highs in the next year. As you rightly say, we have to see what the new discussions will bring at the end of January. Absolutely. Let's look at another asset class, namely the gold. In the night, the gold price has risen by 3% to $ 4100. Why? What is your explanation, Mr. Nolding? Well, we have also seen for the first time through the shutdown, which has just ended, that practically many momentum trades in the market have also come back. And gold is one of them. And from there, it has not completely surprised me that gold is also rising again. By the way, I found it very interesting and even healthy that the gold price has corrected a little. Almost an exponential growth in the gold price has gone below 4,300. That is now, as you rightly say, over 4,100. But we can imagine that this is not the end of the rally. Because I think diversification on the trading side will continue to follow, be it from the central banks, but also from the investors. Therefore, we will not be surprised that the gold price will continue to rise. And one reading of this current gold trend is also that investors expect that the U.S. debt can now continue to grow, where the shutdown has ended, and the dollar could continue to grow. Do you agree? Is that perhaps also an explanation for the attack on gold? Yes and no, if I may say that. I agree that the debt will continue to rise. I think that is uncertain. The question that you always have to ask yourself is how much debt is possible. And I think it is very important that the absolute value is not decisive. Japan, which has a much higher debt than the U.S., but what do the investors do? And the U.S. has much more "treasuries" abroad than Japan. And that is important. You lose trust in the U.S. That was, I think, a bit of the discussion at the beginning of the year. Where the dollar has also disappeared. Now we have seen, against the euro and the other, that the dollar has been fixed again. That's why I don't go to the second rally, necessarily. Because in the end we see where the greater productivity growth is. And if you look at the technology, which is a very strong market driver at the moment, then the U.S. is certainly ahead of Europe. And that's why more money flows into the U.S. Second, I won't answer for too long now, but it is also so that, of course, a too weak dollar can increase inflation in the U.S. Too weak would import inflation. And I don't think that's in the sense of the U.S. That's why we weren't in the camp, that the dollar is completely weakened. We have already seen a very large move this year. If it was only 1.02 for the euro, then 1.20. And that's why we're looking at where it's growing a bit more. Many traders, gold traders, also refer to the hope that a repeat of government businesses in the U.S. will reaffirm the publication of economic data, which is not very important. And putting that on gold is then also a more careful consideration of this data, isn't it? Yes, I don't think you put it on gold now, because you say we don't have any data. That's all uncertain, that's why I'm going to the gold price or in gold. So I honestly don't think so. By the way, we've looked at the economic data. It's not the first shutdown we've experienced. The sixth, that's the longest. But we've looked at the last time it took longer, it went relatively slowly with the economic data. For some, it only took three, four days. If we compare that with 2013, then we could, if the government now opens again this week, from November 19, if I just calculate the time frame, we can get the first data from November 19. That means this macroeconomic blind flight that we've seen a little bit now, which then also sounds relatively slow. But I don't think you said that everything is uncertain, that's why I'm going to the gold. Then gold would have to rise more during the uncertainty. Now we take the uncertainty out of it. On the other hand, and that may be the difference between previous shutdowns in which there were no economic data, we now have an US administration that no longer has so much pressure on some economic data that they are also transparent. Doesn't that change a lot? I don't even know if I would agree with that statement, to be honest. We basically look at all economic data more on the trend than the last shutdowns. So I know there were a few exchanges of people in certain agencies, but... At the labor market, for example. Exactly. But that was, to be honest, not to confuse data, to be honest. What you can of course look at in the USA is an uncertainty. And there are no above data about a whole, how we might do this in Germany or in other countries. And of course, the uncertainty always has weaknesses, that's a more statistical question. And of course you can really think about this number, which was otherwise very strongly riveted or had to be riveted. We are talking about over 800,000 positions, which is really not very much. Maybe you can put it a bit differently. Now it's up to me to say who can do it better or not. But I really don't think that the goal was to confuse the data, so to speak. But maybe to have a theme that you can trust more on it. So that's how I see it. Then let's take a look at the US Treasuries again. The Randits of the ten-year US state online, they have risen quite a bit over the course of the year, so that some people are also worried. Now, last but not least, they went down a bit. But how far is the risk that the US is going to continue to go up as quickly as possible? Yes, I think that's a very important question. In fact, we have seen that the US Trade Council is a topic, and of course we look at the refinancing of the US. And we have already seen that the market, if I look at ten-year Treasuries now, is over 4.50, in the direction of 5. It was already nervous, and maybe not only the market, but maybe the US as well. But I would see it from several points of view. First of all, the inflation falls more on the long end of the ten-year exchange rate. Of course, the Fed works basically at the short end, since we have been talking about quantitative easing and tightening. But when we look at the ten-year policy, the money policy as such, then in the short end, the long-term end is more about growth, inflation and risk premium, if I may say so. And of course, the risk premium for the US is much higher with the cells, you can also read about the CDS spreads. This has become a bit better again, because there are also discussions about the cells. On the other hand, we have been saying for a long time that inflation is a topic that can also come down, but maybe not as quickly as I thought, and it's more about the long-term end. And therefore also the whole discussion, of course, where are profitable 10 cents, if I can say so, for the US. And if we go in the direction of 4.505, of course, the debt will be higher and the re-financing will be more expensive. And in the sense of the US, it can't be so high in 10 cents, that's understandable. And that's why maybe again, the proof of the dollar, too weak dollar, is that the US policy, I don't think so, because that would import inflation. And what does this situation mean now for investors in Europe, so especially for investors who are online in the US or on the dollar, what do they have to pay attention to now? Yes, first of all, of course, there is a lot of risk. I want to buy US bonds with currency risk, that's the very, very important decision that I have to make. There are many investors who say, I don't want that, maybe other investors say, I'm doing it, then I would of course ask the next question, do I want to do that via state bonds? Or maybe not even via state bonds, and we mix a lot of state bonds in the portfolios, because the debt issue is also one on the state side, and many companies are actually very good when I look at the Gwinnesschau. And that's why I say that it doesn't necessarily have to be high, it can be investment grade, as it's called, state bonds, which would also be very, very interesting. And I would rather leave the risk profile to be, of course, to each investor themselves. I would say that the risk is rather on the asset side, rather on the rental side. Therefore, from a European point of view, I would tend to say that on the rental side it is stable, it doesn't have to have a currency risk, I can have my risk side on the asset side. If that fits in my portfolio at all, I would reverse that. Therefore, US Treasuries, currency uncertainty, you have to decide if you want to do that. In other words, the situation for companies, we have just seen that the results of European companies, of course, suffer due to the weak dollar, but maybe we'll put that in the back, that would be a completely different perspective. Let's take a short look at the end of January. So this transition period is already possible, passé and everything has to be re-offended. How do you look at the US in the new year? Yes, I don't want to be so pessimistic now, to be honest. If you look at the numbers, I think there are 13 things that still have to be traded, like 12 or 14, let's take the unlucky number 13. It's all being traded. I think a lot has already been done, I think the so-called Obamacare. During the Covid-19 period, the limit was taken very, very high to get Obamacare, of course. And the discussion is now one of the important ones. I'm going to lower the limit, because the Democrats are more against it, the Republicans are for it. I don't want to reveal a political statement there now, but if we talk about the excuse of the US, it would be better for the market, not personally, of course, I would like to ban Obamacare, which is mainly market and consumer. Only from the State Department would it be of course sense to take back this limit, which was there before, only from the market. That's more like the Republican position, I don't want to take any political positions, but there the market may look at it. And if we talk about seniority treasuries, if the agreement is that you don't take it down, then I can actually imagine that the prices will rise at the end of the day, and if you agree, maybe go a little back. That says Christian Nolding, the global head of the private customer bank of the German Bank. I would like to continue with him, but unfortunately, the time is not enough for that, Mr. Nolding, thank you very much for being here, nice greetings to Frankfurt. Nice to meet you again, thank you very much. When it comes to trading with rare earths, China is located worldwide, and the trade dispute between the People's Republic and the USA has once again shown how dependent western countries are by Chinese exports. China has determined its export controls in October, was set out for a year, but the problem of dependency, of course, remains. Trade reporter Judith Henke has looked at how this dependency can be reduced and why the topic is also relevant for investors and investors. And for the conversation with Judith, I now give a welcome to my colleague Marie Bohms. Hello Judith. Hello Marie. Judith, about rare earths, there is currently a lot of discussion and somehow you constantly hear this term. Maybe you explain to us at first which rare earths exist and why they are called rare. Yes, rare earths are a group of a total of seven metallic elements and they are usually divided into two groups, once the light ones and once the heavy rare earths. But somehow you are not quite sure about the distribution, so depending on who you ask, the elements are also divided into different parts. But there are some elements that are always divided into one or the other group. So, for the light rare earths, I think the most famous are the lanterns and neodymium, which also come very often, and for the heavy rare earths, which are actually rare, they belong to metals such as the prosium and terbium. China has also set both on its export control list in April. Yes, I have already indicated that this name, rare earths, is a bit irrefutable. So rare are the elements, at least not all, but they actually come before the entire globe. For example, we have a forecast in Norway, in Sweden, in the Greenland, but the problem is that they are very scattered on the one hand. This does not mean that there is a quite high percentage in the group or in the lithium, it is a very, very low percentage of the elements in the ore that are then basically dismantled and processed. And you can of course imagine that the construction is much more expensive than when the amount is quite high in the ore. And accordingly, not every forecast is economical, and accordingly, the rare earths are rare, because they are being dismantled. Okay, that was quite a lot of names now, they are quite scattered, so maybe we'll do it more specifically. Why are these rare earths being used and why are they so important right now? Yes, I think what you should notice there, the most important and the most critical area at the moment are the permanent magnets. So these are magnets that have become almost imperceptible in sectors like transport, electronics, defense and robotics. So a magnet in the e-car consists of about 30% of rare earths. Yes, and here too, of course, not all elements are relevant, but the ones that are most relevant for the magnetic production are neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, preseodymium, samarium and gadolinium. So, as I said, not all of them. You just said that the rare earths are not so rare at all, but they are being dismantled rarely. Why is China so much further than all the others? How did they manage to do that? A little bit of China is lucky. They simply have a geological advantage and that's why it's about 60%, no, even about two-thirds. And that's why it's the case that two-thirds of the dismantling of rare earths is taking place in China. But what is actually much more decisive for all the discussions that we are currently having is China's dominance in the preparation and further processing of rare earths. Because the market share is over 90%. That also includes the fact that the refinement, i.e. the further processing of rare earths, requires great know-how. And China has been working on a scientific advance for decades. They simply invested a lot of money and time and the West can hardly catch up. I just said it, Peking has deliberately put a lot of state-owned money in there. That's not just for rare earth delivery chains, that's generally for raw material delivery chains. And that's why China has managed to control the market for many raw materials, including rare earths, and then also to be able to set prices that can not be supplied internationally. So western companies, which then rather act according to the rules of market economy, had to leave the market. But also because the industry simply was not ready to spend more money on non-Chinese material. Yes, especially the dominance in heavy rare earths. At the moment, there is really no refinery outside of China that can process heavy rare earths in a large format, i.e. in the industry format. China had a market share, as you just said, of over 90% and a super large know-how. So the West can hardly catch up. But nevertheless, the ambitions are there to reduce this dependency. What can be achieved in the next few years? To be honest, maybe a limit of damage. Still, the USA is not only talking about the problem like the EU, but they are also solving it. They are investing a lot of money. For example, the Defense Ministry has awarded a $ 400 million share in MP materials. This is a US company that currently operates the only US rare earth mines and also the only refinery. And the US government guarantees the company even a minus price for its oxides. Yes, outside of the USA, there are also progress in the Australian company Linus. They are currently building one refinery for heavy rare earths until it comes to production. In the industry format, not in the pilot format, the construction of mines takes at least a year. By the way, it has a much larger period of time, at least 10 years. So it takes a little longer until we can work on something more of our own. Okay, so it will take a while, but the efforts are at least already there. And they may also be a very interesting case for suppliers. How can they profit from all these developments and maybe invest in rare earths? Well, at best, suppliers can invest in stocks, because buying rare earths is a bit complicated. And maybe at the time it would be a bit weird if they are so invested at the time and are already still in production. Yes, and I also want to say that we have now focused on Western stocks. That also has to do with the fact that many Chinese companies are not directly committed to international stocks. And also the access to A stocks, i.e. to domestic stocks, is strongly restricted for foreigners. That's why we look at Western stocks. According to UBS, there are eight companies at the time, which are particularly well positioned. And underneath them are also said companies, i.e. MP Materials and Linus. Yes, and since the state support for mine operators can also increase the spectrum of rare earth stocks. In addition to individual stocks, there are also ETFs, which are also an option. Here there are currently four products for European suppliers. But these ETFs then not only invest in rare earth companies, but also in companies that, e.g. Cobalt, Lithium or Copper, and process. So it's rather a strategic, metal topic. And in addition, the share of Chinese stocks in the ETFs is actually quite high between 12 and 29 percent, as my colleague Andreas Neuhaus, who wrote the article, found out. So who wants to invest has a few possibilities. If we look back, how did these investments go in rare earths so far? Yes, so this year it's pretty good, MP Materials plus 200 percent and even the weaker values are still plus 25 percent, which in Europe are available ETFs between 40 and 60 percent. But you also have to say that the exchange rates are very fluctuating. For example, we had a very strong rise in October. China again has its controls strengthened and expanded. But then the U.S. and China have strengthened again and now the exchange rates have been significantly reduced again. Now, for example, MP Materials notes again around 40 percent under its year high. Everything sounds quite positive, but also after a pretty high rise and down. So what do you think there is to pay attention to these investments and for whom are they suitable at all? Actually, they are only suitable for very risky stockholders who can also take time to do certain foreshadowing. So we have to take a look at which rare earths are being dismantled or processed. We know now, thanks to this podcast, why not every rare earth element is really rare or critical. And in mining projects, it is also important to look at how high the percentage of rare earths is in the yard. Because the higher the percentage, the more profitable the dismantling is. And there is another risk factor of these companies that have observed the UBS for example. Only MP Materials and Liners currently have a so-called production and the other companies that are developing or are currently building their production cities. And that is a huge pre-trial period that can take up to ten years. And so far, a lot can change. So it can suddenly be that the industrial states of their climate policy are dismantling or you can somehow replace rare earths with technology. It is simply a very, very long-term weather for which you need a long breath and a good sleep. So it remains to be expected where the whole thing develops. Dear Judith, thank you very much for your insights. Please. I thank you very much Florian Paphe for the production of the show and of course for listening to you. Have a nice holiday, have a nice rest of the 11th or if you hear us tomorrow, a good start to the day. Take care and see you soon.