Should I Buy Energy Stocks Now? What $100 Oil Really Means for Your Portfolio
44m 28s
The episode of Invest Talk focuses on key investment themes shaped by current market dynamics. Energy stocks, despite rising oil prices, are viewed as risky due to high debt and cyclical volatility, making them unsuitable for long-term holding. The wealth effect has shifted from real estate to equities, meaning equity market downturns could significantly reduce consumer spending and impact economic growth. AI-related stocks like Astera Labs and CrowdStrike show strong growth but are overvalued and heavily dependent on uncertain future trends, requiring patience and caution. Private equity exposures in insurance firms like Lincoln Financial are flagged as high-risk due to illiquid assets and poor management. The Fed’s rate hikes are presented not as market-killing events but as necessary corrections to historically low real interest rates that fueled inflation. The broader takeaway emphasizes disciplined investing: focusing on long-term fundamentals, avoiding overvalued names, and prioritizing transparency through practices like parallel investing. KPP Financial reinforces client alignment through its parallel investing approach, ensuring all investors benefit from the same market decisions. The upcoming retirement summit in October highlights practical financial planning, including retirement income, trust pitfalls, and real estate strategies. Investors are urged to consider time horizons, asset allocation, and risk tolerance when making decisions in a volatile environment.
This is Invest Talk. From KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the
markets one day at a time. Here's your host Justin Klein.
Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to another edition of Invest Talk.
This is our Thursday, September 17th, 2026, and we are excited for you.
Whatever is on your mind, we're here to help you become a better investor as usual this
hour. We do have very best to make a productive for all of us. Give you insights into what's
going on in the market, different sectors, hopefully impart some lessons that you can take
back to your own personal situation and make better decisions with your money.
Being better able to weigh risk versus reward, to identify opportunity in potential pitfalls
that are out there in the market. It's not just today, but in future years as well.
It's not just about that one tip or that one call about a particular stock, even though
we love all your calls, whether it's about individual stock or something more broad. We
love it all. But that's not what the show is about. It's how you use those moments to
teach lessons. And so we're going to do that throughout the hour. So we're ready for
your calls at 8-899 chart. Put a quick heads up before we move on. Mark your calendar's
October 24th. It's a Saturday. You are invited to join the KPP team and guest experts for
our in-person retirement summit. Special event is free of charge, but seating is limited
and you must pre-register over at InvestTalk.com. What are we going to go over? Luke's going
to speak on the investment side, current conditions, how to think about income and overall investment
allocation, especially pre and post-retirement. I'm going to go over, well, let me say this.
We have a tax expert that's coming in. We have a trust expert to really help you understand
what pitfalls are out there within your trust potentially that could cause problems in
later years. And then we have a real estate expert talking about what's going with current
market, how to think about downsizing potentially in retirement, how that fits into your broader
plan, which is what I will be speaking about. So we have five different speakers, two of
them are internally, KPP, myself and Luke. And then we have three guest experts. So it's
going to be really fun, really interesting, and hope to see all of you there. But once
again, seating is limited. So head over to InvestTalk.com. Now, just a bit, I'm going to talk
about today's mark performance and run down the show topics. But as usual, we'll tackle
this first, call a question now.
This is James from California. Have a question on NRG. It's an energy company. Do you think
it would be a good investment in the long haul, five to ten years, or dividends and growth?
Thank you.
All right, looking at energy, NRG, NRG energies. Yeah, it sounds weird. But the letter
N, letter R and the letter G, NRG, energy incorporated and the simplest energy. Now, earnings
are expected to be up 10% this year and 25% next year. But the stock is in a strong
downtrend. It's relative strength is 12. So for the past year, it's done pretty miserably.
The spite earnings growth. Now, what do they do? You said it's an energy company. That's
in the name. But really, it's a utility company. That's what it is. It's an electric
and natural gas utility operating in Texas, mainly. What else does it do? Yeah, plants.
I'm just looking at its operations. It does have maybe some green energy exposure here.
The problem is debt. And that's my issue is I don't like the level of debt that's on
the balance sheet. Free cashflow is positive. That is a good thing. But it's kind of rolled
over. It's been rather weak over the past five years or so. Pretty volatile. So of the
utility names, this is not the one that I would get excited about. So I'm passing on
energy. Part of it is the debt. A big part of it is just simply the chart is terrible.
It's still not cheap to go look at the enterprise value to even out right now at 13 times. I expect
that to a doesn't look cheap, typically until about seven times. It is getting to some support in the low 80s. That's maybe where I pick it up. But it's
still I think if you're looking at a utility company, there's better options that are
out there.
We did a wonderful show yesterday. We looked into this story and data centers are eating
the land market and how it was. There is real states next big disruption. So we dig into
that story. We also answered a court listener question on coping. And many more. And if
you happen to miss it, go check it out. That's what we get every show is the following best
talk wherever you get your podcast. Now we've a lot of ground to cover over the next 45
minutes or so and time for many will get to all of it. But our main focus point will
be about energy stocks with oil over $100 per barrel. What does that mean for your portfolio?
Should it mean you add energy companies to the right time? We'll talk about that. Also,
the wealth effects. Historically, at least until recent times, it was really tied to real
state. If your real estate prices go up, your equity goes up, you felt richer, you felt
more comfortable spending because you always turn to a HELOC or refinance your house and
pull out some equity, etc. But then await happened and that crashed and it kind of came back
a little bit. But now it's being driven more by equities. We'll talk a little bit more
about that. And then lastly, if we have time, the Fed raised rates will that be a policy
error? We'll dig into some details on that side as well. And of course, we have questions
via our Invest Talk voice bank. One is on investing in ETFs or stocks. I always like that type
of question, as well as Astera Labs, ALAB. So that question and some that came in via the
comment section over on the Invest Talk YouTube channel. But of course, we're going to head
into a quick break. That means we're ready for your calls anytime. You can leave your question
on the Invest Talk voice bank or if you're listening live on our website, investtalk.com or
Postman Amtel 20 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at Idd.ang9chart up next.com
it on today's market activity.
There are a few things that make KPP financial special. One of them is parallel investing.
This means they invest right alongside their clients. Here's how it works. When KPP financial
makes a trade for their clients, Justin Klein makes the same trade for himself and KPP.
On the same day at the same price and same percentage, no front running, no special
treatment. Learn more about parallel investing at investtalk.com
Idd.ang9chart Idd.ang9chart.com. Before we get to those questions, let's check in on the market.
It was a bounce back day after the Fed rate hike yesterday that brought most of the major
indices into the red. But then we got the bounce back day. NASDEC up 1.7% on the day, SMB
up 1.14% on the day, Dow up 0.6% on the day. Nice bounce back. We're in OpEx week. You
expect a lot of volatility during this time. Tomorrow is option expiration. That doesn't
shock me. You did see oil come down considerably on news of a potential end to the war. I mean,
President Trump has floated this pretty much weekly for the past 6.5 months. I don't really
buy that. But there is a report that he is scheduled to use Gulf Cooperation Council leaders.
Gulf Cooperation Council leaders next Tuesday. That's coming up. And then even more important
is that Saudi Aramco plans to restore half of the capacity of its east-west pipeline that
was hit recently by a drone attack within days. So that will certainly ease some pressure
on oil prices at least in the short term. So that brought oil down a little bit. So that was
really the tailwind for markets as a whole. Treasuries were a bit stronger. Cross the curve yields
down 6 to 8 basis points. Dollar index down 0.1%. Gold finished up 0.3%. Silver was up 2% on the day,
Bitcoin up 0.8. And WTI was down 0.5 well off. It's worst levels though. So yes, it told oil did sell
off, but it did get about. So, you know, I'm sure headlines really working. Not that great. But
it also shows you how sensitive the market is right now to what's going on the oil market because
it's driving inflation globally. That's starting to, I think, way on broader economic growth.
It's certainly weighing on the political conditions.
of President Trump and his party heading into the midterms. So the markets, certainly feeling
a little bit more volatile at the current time and more correlated with what's going
on in the oil markets. And so you also saw some economists comment on the Fed meeting yesterday,
there were some reports out just kind of highlighting some of the comments, the dot plots,
for example, 16 to 18 dots showed at least one more rate hike this year. So expect that.
And that rates will stay elevated next year. And that Kevin Warsh noted in his press conference
that the FOMC is hard pressed to call conditions restrictive. And so he wants to remove a dose
of accommodation. And that means once again, more than one rate hike, probably at least one more
maybe two, maybe three would not shock me. But what's interesting here is yes, oil is certainly
a big factor in inflation. But it's not the only factor. You have supply chains worldwide being
disrupted because of the lack of raw materials or just higher cost of raw materials. You have
shipping costs rising considerably. And that is in some areas preventing actual shipments from going
out because it just doesn't cancel out from an economic standpoint. So the point here is that
it's not just about oil. There are other factors. And what's most I think misunderstood is that
higher short term rates likely will actually push inflation higher over the medium term. Now short term,
I could see it being an issue. But medium term, it's just more spending. That just means the
interest costs on our debt is going to go up. That is part of the budget. And that is effectively
more spending into the economy. Sounds crazy. Sounds weird. We're not used to that. We're also not
used to $40 trillion in debt. And this level of debt burden and interest burden that goes up with inflation,
with interest rate increases, etc. So don't think that just because the Fed's going to hit
high grades, that's going to quail inflation. There are too many inputs to this.
And in some ways, it actually is pro inflationary unlike in previous times. So I wanted to highlight
that as we head into the next kind of cycle of potential rate hikes, which I do think we'll get one
again in the month of, I think it's November, late October. Yeah, late October, the 28th of October.
We'll be the next Fed. No, the next invest stock. Never mind. We're going to do a break.
Our 24/7 voice bank never closes. So you can need your finance and investment question anytime
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Let's talk about driving the economy in today's world. Now for decades, the Federal Reserve
and policymakers have talked a lot about the wealth effect. That was one of the main drivers of
the whole cut interest rate regime down to zero. Is that inflates asset prices?
People feel wealthier and therefore they go out and spend.
No of the last 30, 40 years that has been mainly tied to real estate.
But that's no longer the case. Equities are now the primary driver. As equities now count for 46.6%
of US household financial assets and 34% of total assets, both of those are records.
And total net worth reached 196 trillion, which is 826% of disposable personal income.
So it just shows you all elevated asset values are compared to actual income.
It's a record spread between disposable income and asset values.
What's interesting is that more than half of the equity value in this country is held by
the top 1%. And more than 87% of all equity holdings are owned by the richest 10%.
So if you have a significant stake or investment in equities, most likely you are in the richest 10%.
But there were studies in the past and today is that a bear market could mean
a major slide in spending, even for the richest households. Mark Zandy is the chief economist
at Moody's Analytics, so independent firm estimated that the top 20% of income earners account for
nearly 60% of all consumer spending. And we know the consumer is because the spending is 70%
of the economy. So a slump in equities will be greatly affecting the broader economy.
Now once again, real estate used to be the main cash generator.
Because people took out on my equity line credits, they refinanced their mortgage, etc.
But in the mid 2000s, once we had the global financial crisis, that changed.
Before the financial crisis, real estate accounted for about 50% of U.S. households total assets.
Now it's 32%. So from half to less than a third, that's a record low in the second quarter.
And yes, real estate prices continue to go up and not at the pace that equities do.
So no longer is spending supported by dipping into your equity in your home,
it's now dipping into your portfolio. Now there was a study done about what happens if there is a
40% slump in AI stocks and 15% in other equities, implying a 20% overall decline in a bear market.
What impact would that have in the economy? Well, that would show consumption dropping by 0.3%
that would be a 0.3% drag on the broader economy. So not a death meal, but you can see 20%
going back in history. That's a regular Tuesday. I know I'm exaggerating there, but
that's not out of the realm of possibility. So understand that the equity markets is now kind
of the tail that waggs the dog, not the real estate market as a whole. Let's go answer a question
that came in via web form on investtalk.com. So what are your thoughts on AES in this market
environment? AES, considering it's low P ratio. Okay, so here's what I what I want to say,
is P ratios are certainly a factor.
But usually when you're looking at a P ratio of five, it's not telling the whole picture.
Really is it. Now, AES, I have no issue with the company except for the debt levels. So it does
have a good amount of debt. So I don't expect that dividend yield to go up. So understand that.
And that's why it is. And that's why if you go look over the past, let's see,
last dividend increase was in January of last year. And it had to consistently raising its dividend.
It is now taking its cash flow and it is paying down debt. No,
debt continues to go up. So to me, I wouldn't be buying it because of it's a low P ratio. Now it's
a still solid company, still good cash flow and all of that. And earning, but earnings have slowed.
So no, it's a slow growth company with a lot of debt. I think it deserves a low P ratio. So that's
not the reason I would buy it. I think there are probably better utility companies out there. But
once again, still like it as a company, but not because of a five P ratio. The next investment
talk, we're looking to this question. Should I sell bonds now? How do we reposition fixed income in
high oil in a high rate world? That story is for tomorrow. But for now, I'm Justin Klein,
rated to your calls anytime and 888 99 chart.
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Our main focus point today concerns the story.
Should I buy energy stocks now?
What $100 oil means for your portfolio?
So Brent Crude is now past $100 a barrel.
We know that.
It is not all the way up to the $126 mark, like we saw earlier this year, but we are approaching
it.
Let me just see this, I am looking at a chart here.
Yeah, right now we are at about, we are close today, one, one, oh five.
We know this all has to do with what is going on in the Middle East.
And this is going to be felt well beyond just the oil markets, it is going to feed into
manufacturing costs, inflation fears, higher interest rates, all of that.
But the fundamentals of the oil markets are now fairly dire.
The U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve or Petroleum Reserve now holds 289 million barrels.
That is the lowest since 1982.
National average for gas is well above $4 per gallon.
Most analysts see the fore-gallon mark as a pain point for most citizens.
And despite a major 400 million barrel release of emergency reserves back in March, the global
inventory situation is getting more dire by the day.
Because according to Vortexa, which tracks oil shipments, about 10 million barrels or about
10% of world oil demand, is still missing because of the war in Iraq.
And that is despite countries like the U.S., Canada, Guyana, all ramping up output.
Even with them increasing the output, total oil supply will fall this year by about 4.3
million barrels or about 4%.
So is that a situation that lines up your portfolio to take advantage or to buy into oil
trade?
And my answer to that is simply, what is your time horizon?
Do I think the problems are going to resolve themselves in short order?
No.
I think it's going to need to drag out.
I actually think there's an aspect of this where what you're seeing right now is that China
is actually ramping up their imports, where they had originally, early in the war, almost
stopped all imports and looked internal to their own reserves.
But those reserves had to window down.
And I think there's an aspect where do they want to weaken the current administration?
Are they happy with what the current administration is doing across the world and in their, you
know, the interest of China?
Probably not.
Look at tariffs.
So does it make sense for them to buy some oil, which they probably need anyway?
Push prices up in the short term, squeeze the American consumer and the American voter.
And make them a little less happy with what's going on in the White House or in Congress.
Make sense to me.
So I do think near term, it's all adding up into a situation where all parties involved
are acting in ways that will continue to push prices higher.
That's a short term.
But this is Invest Talk.
This isn't speculative talk.
This isn't, hey, let's just worry about what happens in the next month.
If you really do that, they're not great, well, they don't get great long term returns.
But as many you can't take advantage of it near term, if you're holding oil names,
you know, is this time to jump ship that probably not aggressively.
But as oil continues to ramp up, I think that's when you actually edge out of oil exposure,
especially E&P, exploration and production companies that benefit most from higher oil prices.
Those are the names to me that you would reduce your exposure as this crisis continues to
escalate.
Because historically, the cure for high prices is high prices.
Supply will come on, talked about the US Canada, Guyana and other countries ramping up production
when they can, and as time goes on, that's going to be more in play.
More time you give a country or a company to ramp up production, especially when oil
prices stay elevated, they're going to be more incentivized to bring on that new production.
Which means that will global production of oil hitting the market be higher or lower
than it is today than it is 12 months from now?
It's probably going to be higher than 12 months from now.
Which means that inventories probably will heal at some point of the next 12 months, probably
get oil prices declining a bit.
So my guess is three months from now or prices are higher.
Six months from now, kind of a coin flip, 12 months from now, probably lower.
That's my general thought process of what's going on in the current oil market.
And so when you're looking at any industry, what you want to do, if you're looking to allocate
capital, is say, our profits in the industry expected to continue to rise over the next
12, 12, 12, 24, 36 months, or fall, and historically the oil market or oil industry is very
cyclical.
They are what they call price takers.
They take what price the market gives them.
Right now they're getting, they're taking a pretty good price, but it also means they
don't have a lot of control over their profit margins.
Apple, on the other hand, they kind of control it, right?
They know that they have a captured audience with iPhone users and then go raise their price
of the iPhone so they can maintain their margins just as they did recently.
So they're dictating to the market what their iPhone will go for.
Total companies, the opposite, the market dictates the value of their underlying production.
And that's why no, I don't think this is a time to be committing long term capital to
the oil markets.
You rather do that when sentiment is much poor, much poorer.
So it depends on your time horizon, short term yes, long term, I'd be patient for better
sentiment.
There are 24/7 voice make never closes, so you can leave your finance investment questions
anytime and any day at any time.
Chart, here comes a question that came in earlier.
Hi, good day, Justin Luke, long, long time listen to your great show here, Matt from Minneapolis.
I have a question, hopefully you gentlemen can answer for me quickly.
I've been looking for always a good investment here and I've come across this one that I
kind of learning about here, A-L-A-B is a ticker symbol.
I was wondering if you guys can tell me some more about it if it would be a good long-term
play or what's going on with it.
I've noticed over the last was at four or five years it's gone up over 400%.
So in the past it's gone good, which doesn't always mean it's going to do good in the future
I know.
So please let me know what you think of this one.
and I'll be ready to listen on the show.
Thank you, have a great day.
- A very interesting one here,
a name that had been losing money for a long period of time,
finally turned a profit in 2024,
and then a dollar, it was an 84 cents,
and a dollar 84 last year,
so it's turned 399 this year and $6.49 next year.
So, explosive growth from losing money in 2023
to making $6.49 expected.
Next year, and you say, okay, love that growth.
What are you gonna pay for it?
Well, it's depending on about $300 per share, $293,
and change at the close today.
The chart is still in the long-term uptrend,
so I think that's fine.
But the problem is that it's very, very tied to AI.
What do they do?
They provide rack scale AI infrastructure
through purpose, built, connectivity solutions.
So it kind of looks like plug-in play hardware solutions
for the AI cloud data centers.
About a $51 billion market cap,
cash in their balance sheet and like that,
but their free cash flow only $276 million
on a $45 billion enterprise value.
Not exactly a great value there.
Enterprise value, the EBITDA, currently 159,
even go based on forward looking earnings,
still 55, it's pretty expensive.
For an equity 26%, that's good, I like that.
But once again, it's gonna be very tied to what's going on
in AI.
It's currently issuing a bunch of shares,
typically when that happens,
that tells you what the insiders think
of the value of the shares that they're pretty over value.
So it's a very interesting name.
Once again, I like the balance sheet.
I like the area that it's in over the long-term.
However, you know how durable is its advantage?
Kind of too new.
And frankly, this tops along with a lot of the other AI stocks
in end of June.
Uh, let's say $500 per share, now at $293.
So a lot of risk to that future earnings estimate
and it's very expensive.
So I'd be patient on it just 'cause I think the whole AI
space is losing its momentum, this is no different.
But let's go answer two in a row from $88.99 chart.
I am putting money into my Roth on a weekly basis
to maximize my Roth because I can't do it all in one drop
at the beginning of the year.
What's the best way to invest into stocks or ETFs
when you can buy a large block of a stock at a given time?
So you're slowly putting into the market on a weekly basis.
Do you just pick stocks that you think you're gonna do well
and dollar cost average over the entire year?
And then the just strategy is needed or is the best
to just kindly kind of blindly invest into these ETFs
for index funds.
Thanks, I look forward to hearing the answer.
- Historically, my answer to this has always been,
depends on what type of investor you want to be.
Investing in index funds, ETFs, mutual funds,
any type of fund, you're only gonna learn very much.
It's just simple asset allocation.
And maybe that's the investor you want to be.
You don't want to be very hands-on.
You wanna just own a fund or a parent advisor.
If that's the case, then that's fine.
There's nothing, I don't say there's nothing wrong with that,
but it's fine for a lot of people.
There can be the whims of what goes on in the broader market.
So you're not really gonna have a lot of control,
but once again, it may not be what you care much about.
You just wanna have it as a savings vehicle.
But if you wanna have, be a little more hands-on over time
and actually learn some lessons,
you're probably gonna wanna buy individual stocks.
Now, the good thing here is that most brokers allow
fractional shares so you don't necessarily need to buy
a whole share of a company as money comes in.
You can do fractional shares over time
or consistently every couple weeks, like you said.
And then study the names, build that portfolio,
learn from it, figure out your mistakes,
and get better over time.
So if that's what you're looking to do,
is to become more educated about managing portfolios
than buying individual stocks is a much better way to go.
So the P depends on the long-term,
what your long-term plan is, from an investment perspective.
Now, we've got time, let's go with three in a row
from $88.99 chart.
Dustin Luke, this is Brett from California.
I'm looking at a good, solid, cyber security company.
And the ones I'm looking through,
I feel like CrowdStrike is probably the best one.
I just made a purchase today.
I just wanna talk to you guys and see if that's a good move.
Or if you feel like there's another one out there
that I should be involved in.
Yeah, I'd love to hear about your answer on that.
Thank you.
- Well, I can't give you another one to be involved.
But I can talk about CrowdStrike.
CrowdStrike is very good momentum.
It bottoms back in April at about $90 per share.
Now we're at $245 per share.
Earnings the client last year, 5%,
but then I expected it to bounce back 34% this year
and 27% next year to $1.60.
Problem is, it's now a $245 stock.
So it's very expensive.
Shooting at what, 150 times, something like that?
60 times forward looking earnings.
It's kind of ran away from you.
Now what's gonna, it's a good business,
but return equity is 1.3%.
Free cash flow is a billion and a half
on a $242 billion markup.
That's less than a 1% free cash flow yield.
Enterprise value to EBITDA going forward is 130 times.
So, well, like the company, I think you kind of missed it.
It's just too expensive in my book.
So I'm passing on CrowdStrike,
and they have a new watch list because it's cheap enough.
Sure.
But I don't think it's gonna be able to grow
into this valuation.
This is Invest Talk. I'm Justin Klein.
We have one goal here each and every week.
It's to help you achieve your own version of financial freedom.
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- Hi, Justin Luke.
This is Jay from the Salt Lake.
I was wondering your thoughts on the company Lincoln Financial.
The ticker is LNC.
I bought this a few years back and it's done pretty well.
The other day, I was reading Oracle
and it was saying about private equity companies
buying up life insurance and newbie companies.
And the Oracle was, let's say, pretty negative about it.
What maybe you'd think about is Lincoln actually
created a partnership with Bane Capital,
which is a private equity company.
Can you tell me your thoughts and what you think?
And I'll appreciate it.
Thanks, Ian, keep it going to work.
- Oh, yeah, this is very simple.
Yeah, this is the type of name that you do not want
to own going forward in this environment.
This is, there's a lot of landmines
within the insurance industry,
where yes, a lot of them have partnered
with private equity like a Bane Capital
or made a lot of investments in private equity.
And frankly, these are illiquid investments.
In fact, I think that if you own life insurance policies
and newities that are linked to companies like this,
you are also taking on a lot of undue risk.
So what you need to make sure,
if you're investing or you have a newty
or life insurance policy,
make sure it is a mutual company.
What that means is that the insurance company
is owned by the actual, the policy holders,
because you're paying into a mutual company.
So you don't want to have exposure to companies like this,
Lincoln, National, for example,
where their investments are tied to illiquid,
usually poorly managed assets like private equity
and private credit.
So yes, this has already started to weaken.
It peaked back in early August.
It looks like a double top to me.
It's having trouble really gaining much traction
above, well above $45 per share now at 42.
The technicals are certainly deteriorating
and have been really since the end of last year.
So yeah, I would be selling this.
I would not want to own anything that has a tight relationship
with private equity or private credit.
Now speaking of interest rates, investments and private credit,
let's talk a little bit about the Fed rate increase
that we had yesterday, Fed funds rate increase.
And whether or not that's going to destroy the market.
A lot of people are worried that rate hikes are going to be -- are going to weigh on the market.
And we're going to have a bear market. But the reality here is a lot more nuanced.
And what you have to understand is risk can never be destroyed. It can only be transferred.
Because there's risk of the upside. If you're missing out on upside potential, not keeping up with
inflation, then there's -- when things change, risk can shift to more of the downside of deflationary
impulse. And markets -- market -- market -- talking heads, creating narratives to try to explain
how a rating increase is actually going to manifest in markets. But it's very difficult
unless you really understand the mechanisms here. But put simply what you have to understand is that
those within the investment world are always trying to manage their risk,
find ways to make money with other people's money. And that's basically how the entire global
financial system works. Whether you're a bank, work for a bank, you're in the investment world,
you work for an investment firm, you own an investment firm like me, you're always trying to
manage the risk and figure out how to grow your capital, your clients capital, your shareholder
capital, et cetera. So the entire financial system is built on. Now the Fed is always looking to
control inflation right there. They have their mandates. But they're always moving for one policy
error to another. And a lot of this has to do with where real interest rates are. Now one of the
reasons we're in this inflationary spiral is because in 2021 and 2022, they were very slow to
raise rates, which pushed real rates very low down to negative 4%, which is extremely low.
Right now, real rates are at about 2%. Which is okay, it's fine. That's a fine number.
But negative 4 created this inflationary environment that we're in. So in order for that to be
completely corrected, they're going to have to raise rates even more dramatically, probably a
not probably positive 3 or 4% in order to actually reign in the inflationary impulse that we are
feeling. So until that happens, expect inflation to remain elevated. Now I'm just in
client, reminding you about KPP financials, parallel investing, when we make a trade for our clients,
make the same trade for ourselves, same day, same percentage, same price, no front running,
no special treatments, we invest right alongside our clients. Make sure to get your podcast,
your investment podcast anytime at iTunes or Spotify or check out us on our YouTube channel.
Be sure to rate and review on iTunes as well. And mark your calendars. Once again, October 24th,
you're invited to the Invest Talk retirement summit. In person Irvine, California,
you can register for free by heading over to investtalk.com. Independent thinking should success,
this Invest Talk. Good night. Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial. Because of the nature
of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program, it's important for the listener
to understand that not all comments made will apply to that. Specifically, nothing said she'll
be taken to be investment advice, or shall statements on this program be considered an offer to buy
or sell security. Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will
require that the investor review a prospectus before investing. Invest talk is a copyrighted program
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Energy stocks like NRG and AES are not strong long-term investments due to high debt levels and weak earnings growth, despite some dividend potential.
Oil prices near $100 per barrel are driving inflation and market volatility, but the current situation is cyclical and short-term, with rising prices likely to eventually lead to increased supply and lower prices in the medium term.
The wealth effect is now driven by equities, not real estate, with equities accounting for 46.6% of U.S. household assets—making equity market declines a significant drag on consumer spending and the broader economy.
AI-focused stocks like Astera Labs (ALAB) show explosive growth but are extremely expensive, highly sensitive to AI trends, and currently overvalued, warranting patience rather than immediate investment.
CrowdStrike is a strong, high-growth company but is now overvalued at 60x forward earnings, with low yield and diminishing returns, making it a poor long-term buy in current market conditions.
Private equity-linked investments in insurance firms like Lincoln Financial (LNC) pose significant risks due to illiquid, poorly managed assets and deteriorating technicals.
Higher interest rates are not a market-destroying force but a necessary step to correct historically low real rates, which helped fuel inflation; rates will remain elevated, impacting bond yields and corporate borrowing.
KPP Financial’s parallel investing model ensures transparency and alignment with clients by investing the same way, at the same time and price, reinforcing accountability and trust.
Summary:
The episode of Invest Talk focuses on key investment themes shaped by current market dynamics. Energy stocks, despite rising oil prices, are viewed as risky due to high debt and cyclical volatility, making them unsuitable for long-term holding. The wealth effect has shifted from real estate to equities, meaning equity market downturns could significantly reduce consumer spending and impact economic growth.
AI-related stocks like Astera Labs and CrowdStrike show strong growth but are overvalued and heavily dependent on uncertain future trends, requiring patience and caution. Private equity exposures in insurance firms like Lincoln Financial are flagged as high-risk due to illiquid assets and poor management. The Fed’s rate hikes are presented not as market-killing events but as necessary corrections to historically low real interest rates that fueled inflation.
The broader takeaway emphasizes disciplined investing: focusing on long-term fundamentals, avoiding overvalued names, and prioritizing transparency through practices like parallel investing. KPP Financial reinforces client alignment through its parallel investing approach, ensuring all investors benefit from the same market decisions. The upcoming retirement summit in October highlights practical financial planning, including retirement income, trust pitfalls, and real estate strategies.
Investors are urged to consider time horizons, asset allocation, and risk tolerance when making decisions in a volatile environment.
FAQs
KPP Financial invests alongside its clients using parallel investing. When they make a trade for clients, they make the same trade themselves at the same price, time, and percentage, ensuring transparency and alignment without front running.
It depends on your time horizon. Short-term, high oil prices may benefit energy stocks, but long-term, the market is cyclical and supply will increase over time. KPP advises patience and reducing exposure to exploration and production companies as prices may eventually decline.
No, not currently. High debt levels, weak earnings growth, and poor stock performance make these utilities riskier. A better alternative exists in the sector, with lower risk and more stable fundamentals.
ALAB is highly tied to AI growth, which is currently slowing. The company is expensive, with a high enterprise value and growing shares, indicating overvaluation. Investors should remain patient and avoid committing long-term capital until sentiment improves.
Historically tied to real estate, the wealth effect is now driven by equities. Equities now represent 46.6% of U.S. household financial assets. A significant decline in equity values could reduce consumer spending and drag on the broader economy.
This strategy depends on your financial goals. There's no one-size-fits-all answer. If you're seeking better long-term returns, consider a diversified portfolio with individual stocks or ETFs, but always assess risk and time horizon.
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