Go back

Should I Buy Bonds Now? The 10-Year Treasury at 5% Explained

44m 6s

Should I Buy Bonds Now? The 10-Year Treasury at 5% Explained

The Invest Talk episode from October 27, 2026, examines key market dynamics amid earnings season and rising interest rates. Central to the discussion is the 10-year Treasury yield’s climb to 5%, which signals a shift in investor risk appetite, prompting a reevaluation of equities versus fixed income. AI-focused stocks remain resilient due to significant capital infusions, like Broadcom’s $63 billion debt deal, but face skepticism over earnings sustainability and practices like channel stuffing. Earnings growth in the S&P is heavily concentrated in a few tech and energy firms, creating exposure to volatility. The show emphasizes that metrics like free cash flow—rather than earnings—offer better long-term value, and highlights the use of momentum indicators such as RSI to identify outperforming stocks within sectors. Tokenization is critiqued as an overhyped solution that fails to resolve fundamental issues like asset quality and trust. Meanwhile, manufacturing and real estate sectors face headwinds from interest rate hikes, while dividend-focused ETFs like SCHD underperform in inflationary environments. A bond ladder strategy is presented as a smart, low-risk way to transition capital into fixed income, allowing reinvestment at higher yields. The episode concludes with a call for investors to assess their portfolios holistically, considering not just equities but also real estate, debt, and sector-specific risks. With elections, geopolitical events, and Fed policy uncertainty looming, the market remains volatile, requiring disciplined, data-driven decisions.

Transcription

6337 Words, 34634 Characters

English
This is Invest Talk. From KPP Financial, helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host Justin Klein. Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to another edition of Invest Talk. This is our Tuesday, October 27th, 2026 edition. Yeah. Can you believe it? Halloween is just around the corner this weekend. Also, I don't think every state does it, but daily savings time. I'm correct. I remember correctly. Yeah. That's this weekend as well. And then we head directly into the holiday season. But a week from today, or the midterms, that's going to be fireworks, depending on the outcome. And ultimately, probably the weeks after as they continue to count votes and finalize the tallies and all of that, that's going to be probably where the volatility comes in. So that'll be certainly something to keep on the watch list as well as the current earnings season. We're in the midst of earnings season. So we have new data coming out every day about how Q3 ended up for corporate America and what they expect more importantly for Q4 and 2027. This is really when they start talking about it right where it's a guy we're counting down the days less than 100 days left in the year. So what does 2027 look like? So we're going to look at those earnings reports, what might have moved markets and much, much more today. But most importantly, you'll be answering your finance and investment questions. Whatever's on your mind, money related, we are here to help bring data and perspective to it so you can make better decisions with your money and when you make a phone call. You ask a question, I can guarantee you there's another investor talk listener picking the exact same thing. So you're helping others as well. So encourage you to pick up the phone and give us a call. And just to be able to talk about today's market performance, run down the show topics, but as usual, we'll tackle this first caller question now. Hi, this is Zach calling from Michigan. I had a question about cows, the pacer cache cow 100 ETA. It's something that I had heard about on your show originally, but I never opened up a position, and I'm considering it now. At the time you did say you had given it a thumbs up, and I'm just curious if you were still feeling that way. Thanks for all that you do. So guys, what I will say about pull this up cows is COWZ. This is the pacer US cache cow 100 ETF. And I'm not sure the exact methodology here of this fun, but it leans heavily on as you would imagine with the name. Companies that have good solid strong free cash flow. Now, I don't know once again, how they rank the top hundred and I think maybe they're just looking at the top hundred of the S&P or maybe it's the Russell to that Russell 3000 I'm not sure. But nonetheless, I like the general methodology methodology of focusing more on free cash flow than earnings. So earnings can be manipulated, there can be channel stuffing, there can be there can be aspects of that earnings figure that are manipulated by accounts. Now, that's not to say that cash flow can't be cash flow can be to some degree, but over time, consistent cash flow is a much better metric for shareholder value creation than earnings alone. Not so you don't use both, but if I'm going to pick one or the other, I'm picking cash flow over earnings. So I like that. Now, that said, doesn't mean that you it isn't without risks and costs. Let's see what the price this this ETF is. Yeah, 49 basis points and expense ratio. So half percent, which is kind of the high side for an ETF. But what you're getting here, if you go look at the sector breakdown is lot of energy. A good amount of technology, but not as much as the S&P. You're getting a lot of health care, you're not getting any financial services, you're not getting any real estate, you're not getting any utilities. Little bit of basic materials. So what I what I probably said in the past and I say to you here, which is the methodology for a kind of index type of fund is to me much better than the S&P or the NASDAQ. And that's played out. If you go look at the five year return, it's about 11.5%. The category is at around 9%. The index itself is at about 10.5%. So if I'm comparing it to a broader index, I much rather have this and it shows you the value of digging deeper beyond just the P ratio or beyond just an earnings number. And focusing a little bit more on metrics that give you a strong indication of how well the business is performing over an extended period of time, as opposed to a snapshot of one quarter, one year that can be some manipulated through depreciation schedules, right off, things like that that they can change the way that earnings look for the better and the worse. So I like it, but also I much rather buy some individual names within it as opposed to just this ETF. And again, if you're comparing this to the S&P, I much rather own this. Now we lot of ground to cover over the next 45 minutes or so. And if if you missed yesterday's show, we had a great show. It was on Russian sanctions being lifted and how that will impact the commodity markets and commodity prices. We also had a listener question on Petrobras PBR. If you have to miss it, go check it out. The best way to get every show is to follow the best talk wherever you get your podcast. And focus point today concerns this story. So I've had bonds now, the 10 year treasuries pulled back was at five and a half. Now we're at around five percent. It's a psychologically significant level, but it also is a mathematically significant level when you're looking at the valuations for equities more broadly, but especially AI driven sector valuations that are so. Heavenly, heavily relied on in today's market when you're especially when you're indexing once again. So does this mean you should shift your investments into more bond holdings? And how do you do that in an effective and smart way that capitalizes on those yields, but also reduces the amount of risk you're taking from a duration perspective. So we're going to look at that also where the midst of earning season and where is the earnings coming from and how sustainable is that earnings growth? So we'll take a look at that. And then tokenization. It is a buzz word that you probably will hear from anybody working around or in or interested in the crypto space. The problem is is that most within the space see it as a end all be all that you can tokenize something it solves all the issues. And the reality is a bit more complex than that. They're pros and cons just like anything we're going to take into those. And then lastly, we're finally adding manufacturing jobs once again, but it's a certain type of manufacturing job. It's a certain type of manufacturing manufacturing job. So we're going to take a look at what type of jobs are being created in the manufacturing sector here in the United States. We also have voice bank questions. One is in relative strength index and then it's a QXO. We might have some questions that came in via the Invest Talk YouTube channel as well. But we're going to head into a quick break. Please remember you can call any time and leave your question on the Invest Talk voice bank. And if you're listening via our live stream or possibly named until 20 to be air 8 you can call right now. Number is always the same. It's 8899 chart up next I'll comment on today's market activity. There are a few things that make KPP financial special. One of them is parallel investing. This means they invest right alongside their clients. Here's how it works. When KPP financial makes a trade for their clients, just in client makes the same trade for himself and KPP. On the same day at the same price and same percentage, no front running, no special treatment. Learn more about parallel investing at Invest Talk dot com. It is 999 chart. It is 9924278. So I could do and ask your question on today's show. and take a look at the market. it today. It was another bounce back day for the AI space after a two weeks of sell-offs, mainly surrounding credit worries around Corweeve and Oracle and some of the other hyperscalers. But the last couple of days has seen a lot of capital raising. Today you saw a broadcom of $63 billion debt financing package, the largest ever for AI infrastructure debt deal to basically fund its procurement for Anthropics. So kind of borrowing for Anthropic in a way over five year term and just shows you that money is still flowing from investors, from banks, to finance these deals. And that's what ultimately we'll keep this trade going is if the debt problems that have perked up over the past couple of weeks, if those start to reverse in a major way. And frankly, all space paid, the last couple of days has shown that there's still money flowing to the space. Then you have Anthropics IPO, the next major litmus test to see how much capital it can raise, can it maintain those lofty valuations or do you get a major sell-off after? And that I think they were talking about November 9th was around the date for the IPO. So that's in probably a couple of weeks. So that'll be very interesting. But that's really where the strength in today's market was. AMD up 5%, broadcom up 4, micron up nearly 3. The red was some of the hyperscalers meta was still down 1.6%. Accenture down 4. Salesforce down 2.7. So a lot of the software names struggled. Interesting that inverse relationship there between software names and a lot of the AI hardware names and the hyperscalers. Energy yet oil names down as oil prices were down about 1.8% at WTI ended back below $100 a barrel for the first time in a few weeks. Silver was up 0.3% Bitcoin up 1% gold up 0.9% on the day. The dollar was strong. 0.3% on the day. So pretty interesting rally in gold and silver and Bitcoin despite a stronger dollar. Treasuries were got flat. So yields were up 1-2 basis points on the longer end. So the yield curve did steep in just a bit. What else did we get? There continues to be there's a election going on in Israel so that looks to be coming to a contentious I guess fight over there to see who actually if Benjamin and Yahoo can stay in power. So I think that's something in the market will probably be focusing on. And then tomorrow we have the FedMini. It'll come out at 2 p.m. Eastern so 11 Pacific then there'll be a press conference at 2.30 with Kevin Warsh. Probably not doing anything but still a question is is it a wait and see tone for December or is it a more hawkish tone. Right now it looks like the odds of a rate hike in December are about 80% 85% actually. So if there's any doubt so to that I think that was a good week in the dollar and probably would give some broad based support for markets. Consumer confidence came in at 91.7 October that was up from September well above consensus so that was producing views for labor market actually improved. So that was an interesting little tidbit there also gives credence for a rate hike in December. Well with that said we're gonna pivot over and go to a break. I'm ready for your calls now at 8 a.m. at 99 chart. Retirement planning is about more than reaching a certain number. It's about understanding how your investments income taxes social security and long-term goals all work together. At KPP financial we help clients put those pieces into one coordinated financial plan designed to make your retirement effortless. To learn more visit investtalk.com We're in the midst of earning season so let's take a look at what the market is expecting we're analysts are expecting. Overall the SB is expected to see a 30% jump in earnings in the third quarter year of year 30% and that sounds like a lot and it absolutely is. The problem is is that only 10 companies account for about two thirds of that profit growth names like Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, Meta and especially some oil names as you can imagine with oil prices up their profits are also up considerably. Nvidia and Micron alone account for 34% of that growth so a third so you take them out so that 30% growth in earnings it's 20% growth in earnings. Now the good news is that even without the top 10 stocks that are delivering two thirds of the growth you're still seeing 10% dropping profits which is pretty good. That's pretty good. Now a lot of people will say though that from a valuations standpoint valuations have come in meaning that stocks are cheaper and that's true and aggregate yes. Problem is is that some of the heaviest way to companies in the index are now looking very cheap like a Micron like Nvidia but as we've said before these are businesses that historically have looked the cheapest closer to the top because their businesses go from wildly profitable to loss making oftentimes in the matter of just a few quarters. Microns expected to see a 10 fold increase a thousand and 78% increase in earnings year over year. You think that's sustainable? Like I said wild profit growth and then wild reversals. Nvidia is supposed to see a 90% increase in earnings but it's also a company that is historically not the best ethics you've seen current reports of them forcing some of the hyperscalers like a Microsoft or an Amazon to buy in chips early we call that channel stuffing meaning that these companies aren't using the chips but and these basically saying if you want to see us continue to sell you the chips which tend to be hard to get their hands on you're gonna have to buy more than you really need and you've seen that with recent Microsoft earnings and what they bought in from a capacity standpoint of what they're able to actually install and the gap is about 50% they've been actually able to install so there's likely a lot of unused or there absolutely is a lot of unused and video chips just sitting out there in the ether and you know what happens when they stop buying because they have way too much inventory so the cycle is very similar I think to the late 90s and it just shows you that yes things are going okay but it's very reliant on a handful of names that are extremely sick let's keep things moving and pivot back to the best stock voice bank from 8 to 8 99 chart hey Justin and Luke this is Mike just had a question for you about how you use RSI relative strength index please talk about it a lot and I do follow it just you're what you look for when purchasing and when selling certain stocks obviously I know I'd love to buy a stock at a relative strength index of 20 and sell it at 90 but just how you use that when determining when to purchase and sell thanks yeah there are different measures we use a little bit more actually put it we try to focus not just on reliant strength of the market which would be called 12 month momentum that's what we're focusing on 12 month momentum what percentile is in also six month momentum so what I like to actually see is both kind of better than average I typically don't like to see both super high because oftentimes you missed it right I would like to see the momentum continuing to build and build and come from a low level like you said finding it at 20 is on its way to 90 is usually pretty rare but it's one factor and I also like to look at it compared to the industry as a whole and I think that's even more important because so much about a company's return profile over a six to 12 month period has to do with the industry it's in just go look at whether you're in tech right now are you in hardware tech well that's gonna do much better than software tech for example right with a lot of the the the SaaS name struggling but that started to turn around a little bit Okay? So you're starting to see some momentum, at least on the shorter term, three-month momentum in software names better than a lot of the hardware names. Same with oil, right? Oil names, you're gonna see good momentum compared to the broader market because those are doing better. So I like to say, okay, what companies are actually outperforming their peers within the industry. I think that's even more important. So RSI is good, but we like to look at six-month and 12-month momentum. Now the next and best talk, we will look into the story. AI funding fears is the market's biggest trade running on a steam. Concerns about the sustainability of capital spending are rattling Wall Street with the self-spreading beyond pure tech names. We'll dig into that story tomorrow, but for now I'm just in client-rate, take your calls now at 888-99 chart. At KPP Financial, accountability means more than advice. It means we invest alongside you. Through our parallel investing approach, when we recommend an investment for clients, one or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time. Same day, same price, same percentage. If your portfolio moves, R's does too. That is alignment. That is transparency. That is the KPP difference. Visit InvestHoc.com to get your free portfolio review. In the early days, Invest Talk was Jerry Klein and Steve Peasley. Now the torch has been passed and a new generation of hosts is on the job. Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero. So when you've got finance and investment questions, don't forget to call Invest Talk. 888-99, chart. 5% that sounds pretty good, especially after the last 20 years post-financial crisis. 18 years, whatever we want to call it. We've seen rates at rock bottom. 1, 2, 3%, we kind of got used to 3% to 4% level for a long period of time. Sometimes they dip a little below that, but you know, that was kind of the cost of capital for a long time. Now it's a lot higher. We hit 5% and a half percent recently on the 10-year, and now we're settling in and back around 5%. Let's see what are we currently. The 10-year currently, my fax it wants to work. Yeah, it's right, we're right at 5%, 5%. So we've come back in a little bit as investors are doing the math. They're saying, yeah, I could earn a lot from text docs, AI names, but there's risk there, especially after the recent run. There's a lot of expectations priced in. And so it doesn't make sense for me to continue to take that equity risk. When I can earn risk free at 5% for a decade, and those numbers, when you compound them, not bad. You can double your money in about 14.4 years. That's a rule of 72. You take 72 divided by 5 in this case, and you get 14.4 years. That's how many along would take the double year money. So capital is moving, especially as this higher cost capital is impacting the ability for AI names to finance themselves. And this is what we call the equity risk premium. The excess return investors demand for taking on volatility of stocks compared to risk free government bonds. You're saying, what's my earnings yield? So the PAs is 20, for example, the inverse of that is the earnings yield. That's 5%. Well, am I going to invest in equities with the earnings yield to 5% with risk, but I can effectively earn 5% risk free by buying 10-year treasury. It's a valid question. That doesn't price in earnings growth over time. Certainly, that's a factor here as well. Remember, earnings, technically, they should go up with inflation and profit margins of corporations, et cetera. Whereas you buy 10-year treasury, 5%, you're getting that 5%. But you don't get the risk of a major equity drawdown either. So there are multiple factors in this. So the question is, what type of assets will this continue to affect and how do you take advantage of it? Because many pension funds, institutional actors, are going to start to think about moving money out of risky investments into safer investments. Say for fixed income assets, especially when a 10-year treasury, it's not only a 5% yield, but it's exempt from state and local taxes as well. It has negatively impacted dividend aristocrats as well. And these are companies typically paying around 3%, they grow their dividend over time. And 5% sounds a lot better than 3%. Even if 3% is growing over the next 10 years. So that's why a lot of these stocks have sold off on this rally in yields. But then there's also utilities raised to the most sensitive within the equity sector. They tend to be highly leveraged because they're very capital intensive. They're bar and cost go up when treasury rates go up, compresses their margins, and actually threatens future growth and sustainability of those dividends. So that's why they tend to be the most sensitive. But then after that is actually the tech sector, which once again, it's all about growth. It's all about the future value of their earnings 5, 10 years out. But when that's discounted at a higher rate now, that's typically when you get multiple contraction. So that's part of this as well. It's not just higher cost of capital on the financing side, but doing the discounted cash flow model for your growth gains becomes harder too. Now let's say you wanted to pivot into bonds. How would you do it? I think the simplest way to do it, something that we do for clients in our stable income strategy, which is the bond ladder. Now we go out 3 to 5, maybe 6 years, we stagger those. Maybe you want to go all the way to 10 years, but you're still only buying, you know, maturities at 1, 3, 5, 7 years. And so the good news about doing a bond ladder here is that if rates continue to rise over the long term, they will, but they certainly can have pullbacks in the short term, like you've seen as of late. If interest rates continue to rise, the short term bonds mature and allows you to reinvest that cash at new higher rates, is supposed to sticking it in to a 10 year treasury. If it rates fall, well, you just exactly successfully locked in 5% for a period of time. And most of your money will be locked in at that nice higher rate. And we're seeing this happen, not just from a transition from equities to fixed income, but also real estate. This is a huge factor right now. A lot of boomers, a lot of retirees are saying, you know what, I think the upside, and I agree with this, the upside of real estate prices over the next 3 to 5 years is very poor. In fact, there's actually probably more risk of downside move. And in real estate prices, more broadly. And then if you do the math, especially in coastal areas, California, maybe New York, Northeast, et cetera, where your cap rates are still 4% or 5%. Well, you can go and use that equity and now invested in fixed income at 5, you know, if you're buying a quarter bond, 6.5%, 7% in some instances. And that's, then you don't have to be a landlord, it's a lot easier to deal with. And that's a, you know, remember, there's always opportunity costs. I say this all the time, no matter what you own, you are taking on opportunity costs of how you invest that capital, where that capital is. And so when rates move, suddenly, the opportunity costs to go invest and guaranteed 5% or maybe low risk, 6 or 7% in corporate bond markets, it becomes real. And so it changes the math about all types of asset classes. So it's a very interesting new market. And something you have to think about when you're assessing your entire financial life, all of your assets, not just your equities, but your real estate and other assets as well. Let's grab a fresh listener question from 888 99 chart. Yeah, hi, this is Mike from Maryland. I have a question about a building supply company, QXO. I'd like to know your thoughts on considering expanding my position. This is going to be in the high risk, high reward potential portion of my portfolio, which is actually quite small on a percentage basis. But QXO, I would love to hear your thoughts on that stock. Thank you, I really enjoy your podcast. Listen to it every time it comes out. All right, looking at QXO, it's a distributor of roofing, water proofing and complimentary building products in the United States. $7.7 billion market cap with a bigger issue. It looks like it was dead, but that's not that bad. About $4 billion in debt. The price looks like the price of a stock trading at $10 and change here. It's a very, very strong downtrend over the past couple of years. Yeah, I mean, this thing looks like skewing everything. Yeah, it's been a strong downtrend in February. It was at $27, now right, $10 and change. See, earnings, let me go to the earnings here. Yeah, supposed to make $0.13 in Q3, which is down 7% year over year. It's struggling with profitability. But I do find a member correctly. It's a name that has new management. New management that has been successful before at these type of turnarounds. And so I kind of like it. I kind of like it. I think there's still consistent demand for building materials. Their debt levels are not too crazy. It is very high risk. I will say that because profitability is negative. But it's free cash flow still remains positive. 140 million trailing 12 months. So yeah, I kind of like it. Now if I zoom in, let me see if I can do it. Yeah, my biggest issue is that it's on the downtrend. I'm not seeing capitulatory volume. I would really like to see that. But this is a level you probably dip your toe in a little bit and add do it. And then really add do it if there is some sort of event that gets people to everyone to sell it and panic. That's where I'd probably pick it up. So I kind of like it as a good risk versus reward, but it is very high risk. Now for the time of time, receive questions via webform from vesttalk.com. Here's one that came in today. Kweb ETF is approaching level similar to those during COVID-19 pandemic. Is this an opportunity? This is the Crane Shares CSI China Internet ETF. The problem with this is, it's just the Chinese sector as a whole. And the insinuation here is that, oh, it's at lows from COVID, it's automatically cheap. I think that's, there's maybe some credence to that. But you really have to have a foundation for the fundamentals. Obviously, there's geopolitical risk with China. There's also domestic risk with China. Meaning, there's a lot of regulation around tech and how much people can use certain types of technology, like social media. I think they limit the kids for two an hour or two, like TikTok, because like an hour or two per day. Something, you know, maybe we should do here. But I would say it's cheap. I actually don't hate it. I thought I would, when I saw the question, I was like, oh, I probably hate this. But I'm looking to valuation P's around 12. It probably depends on what type of foreign exposure you have. If you have no Chinese exposure, then this is probably a good way to get broad-based exposure, you're getting 10 cent. It's a top-holding PDD, which is, I think I'll end it down. I was remembered correctly. And then Alibaba, then that most people might remember. That's been around for a while. I think I forgot to remember they actually have some ownership in some of the hyperskillers. Maybe it's anthropic, I forget. But generally, I like the exposure to Lenovo is in the top seven holdings here. So I'm gonna give this one a surprising thumbs up. Surprise myself on that one. It's KWeb, K-W-E-B. Let's go pivot to another voicemail question now. - Hi, this is Braden from Thousand Oaks. I appreciate you guys showing. Thank you very much. I was just calling to see if I could get your advice on a ETF as the HD. It's the Swab US dividend equity ETF. Essentially, like a 20-year hold that I would just buy into kind of over the years. Any advice would be appreciated. Thank you. - That's a very popular ETF, SCHD, the US Swab US dividend equity ETF. It is, it's expense ratio. Six basis points. So it's pretty cheap. A lot of people have their portfolio at Swab. So maybe they're getting pitched it or whatever. We use Swab as a broker, which we like. But doesn't mean the question is this is the Swab being the sponsor of this fund. Is somebody relevant, okay, it's how do they have they allocate the funds here? What's the sector allocation? And when I look at the sector allocation, I generally like it. It's 16% energy. It's 16% technology. Biggest waiting is a super defensive at 20%. That's probably my biggest issue. And then healthcare is 18 and half. And those are two sectors that are long-term defensive, but they're also poor, they're poor sectors in an inflationary environment. And we're in one. What are the sectors that tend to do well in an inflationary environment? Well, basic materials, this says none. Financials, this says about 9%, the category average is 19, so it's underweight. Energy is at 16, which is category average is seven, that's a positive here. But it's also a sector that swings wild. At least they're getting a lot of volatility. Then industrials, that's only at 7.5%, where the category average is 10. I'd want that probably in the mid teens. So overall, is this better than buying S&P? Yeah, I would agree with that. It's a large cap, kind of large cap slash mid cap value fund. I like that. But if you go look at the performance, it's good over 10 years, but over five years, since we've been in an inflationary environment, it's in the 60th percentile, which means it's slightly below average, over the five year. Over the 10 and 15 year, it's 13 and seven, that's good. But once again, five years, kind of that inflationary zone that you're judging it by. You know, unless we're going back to this zero and straight environment, I just don't see this being a great opera performer, and then also the dividend side. We said this before, I think people are over indexing to dividends, because the majority of capital of being returned to Cheryl does not do dividends anymore. About 1% of S&P capital return is due dividends. Then 1.5% is buybacks. So focusing just on dividends, I think, is flawed in this market. So I think it's an okay fund, but I don't love it. We're heading to our final break. It's the prices are now at $88.99 chart. Investor, tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Investor on our YouTube channel. And they can leave their finance and investment questions anytime on $88.99 chart. Tokenization, tokenization, you probably heard the term. It's a big buzz word in the crypto market. And it dupes people, I think, into thinking that it's some sort of major innovation. I'm not saying that the blockchain itself isn't some type of innovation. I do think it is, but more often than not, it's overhyped and oversold. It's a ledger, okay. That ledgers have been around for thousands of years. But the problems of a ledger are all very similar and there are problems that guess what tokenization does not solve. It's just a new way to keep a ledger. Let's say, for example, you want to sell a piece of your house, okay, a space of your equity in your home. And then you sell 10% to a 10% of the equity of your home. And you sell 10 tokens of that equity out into the world. Let's say I buy it, I buy it from you, right? I want 10% of the equity of your home to give you money for it. How do I know that you sold 10? You didn't sell 15, you didn't sell 20? How do I also know that you're taking care of the house? You're not letting it just to window. You're spending money to, you know, most of the lawn, fix the pipes, clear the gutters. The answer is, you don't. This is part of the ledger problem. I don't know the quality of the asset on the other side of the balance sheet. And that's a problem as old as finance. It's something that tokenization does not solve. Now, we're talking about trading equities on the blockchain and that's certainly possible. Why? Because all that is the new type of exchange. So then the realm of the United States, why don't equities trade cross-border? Like the crypto industry would love to see happen? Well, it's because our laws here in the United States are different than the laws in Canada and the rest of the world. So tokenization is an improvement over the standard ledger, but it does not solve the fundamental issues that a ledger generally has. Yes, it can settle faster, it can make illiquid assets more liquid, but that's not always better in it doesn't once again solve the constraints of the existing system. Those constraints are there because they've always been there. Nothing about tokenization fixes that problem. Laws regulation, that fixes that problem. To make sure that when you say there are 10 lots or 10 tokens of your house that have been sold, there's laws around making sure that there are only 10 and not 15 and not 20 or not 100. So the different type of ledger that doesn't solve really a lot of problems that it pretends to solve. It's interesting, but the human is the underlying problem. You have to trust but verify. So when you see the crypto industry, what's happening a lot in that space is they're just taking things that already exist and renaming them and saying that it's more innovative than it's better. Assets become real world assets that doesn't make it different, what do they say? Well, there's a lot of jokes around. You're uncle in your aunt, which I probably can't say on this on there, but you know what I mean, just because you call it something different does not mean it is. So be wary of the snake oil salesmen within the crypto space. Don't get duped. I'm Justin Klein reminding you about KPP financials, parallel investing, we're going to make a trade for our clients, make the same trade for ourselves, same day, same price, same percentage, no front running, no special treatment. We invest right along to other clients who share the same risk and potential for success and you can learn more about heading over to investtalk.com, please tell your friends and family about a free podcast downloads, which you can find anytime at iTunes or Spotify. Independent thinking should success, this invest talk, good name. Invest talk is a trademark of KPP financial because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program. It's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to them, specifically, nothing said shall be taken to be investment advice or shall statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing. Invest talk is a copyrighted program of Klein, Pavelis and Peasley financial, a registered investment advisor firm which retains all rights. For more information regarding KPP's investment advisors, call 1-800-557-5461. Thank you for listening and your comments and questions are welcome on our 24 hour listener line at 888-99Chart. [BLANK_AUDIO]

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The market is reacting to rising 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5%, prompting investors to reconsider equities versus fixed income due to higher risk-free returns.
  2. AI sector strength is supported by major debt financing deals, such as Broadcom’s $63 billion package, but remains vulnerable to earnings sustainability and channel stuffing concerns.
  3. Earnings growth in the S&P is heavily concentrated in a few top names like Nvidia and Micron, raising concerns about valuation volatility and long-term sustainability.
  4. The RSI and momentum analysis are used to assess stock performance, with emphasis on outperforming peers within industries rather than relying solely on technical indicators.
  5. Tokenization in crypto is overhyped—while it improves liquidity and settlement speed, it does not solve core issues like asset quality verification or regulatory compliance.
  6. Manufacturing job growth is emerging in specific sectors, while real estate and dividend-focused ETFs face pressure from rising rates and inflation.
  7. A bond ladder strategy is recommended to safely transition capital into fixed income, allowing reinvestment at higher rates and protecting against short-term volatility.
  8. Shifts in investor sentiment, including the election cycle, geopolitical tensions, and Fed policy cues, are driving market volatility and shaping asset allocation decisions.

Summary:

The Invest Talk episode from October 27, 2026, examines key market dynamics amid earnings season and rising interest rates. Central to the discussion is the 10-year Treasury yield’s climb to 5%, which signals a shift in investor risk appetite, prompting a reevaluation of equities versus fixed income. AI-focused stocks remain resilient due to significant capital infusions, like Broadcom’s $63 billion debt deal, but face skepticism over earnings sustainability and practices like channel stuffing.

Earnings growth in the S&P is heavily concentrated in a few tech and energy firms, creating exposure to volatility. The show emphasizes that metrics like free cash flow—rather than earnings—offer better long-term value, and highlights the use of momentum indicators such as RSI to identify outperforming stocks within sectors. Tokenization is critiqued as an overhyped solution that fails to resolve fundamental issues like asset quality and trust.

Meanwhile, manufacturing and real estate sectors face headwinds from interest rate hikes, while dividend-focused ETFs like SCHD underperform in inflationary environments. A bond ladder strategy is presented as a smart, low-risk way to transition capital into fixed income, allowing reinvestment at higher yields. The episode concludes with a call for investors to assess their portfolios holistically, considering not just equities but also real estate, debt, and sector-specific risks.

With elections, geopolitical events, and Fed policy uncertainty looming, the market remains volatile, requiring disciplined, data-driven decisions.

FAQs

Parallel investing means KPP Financial makes the same trades for their clients as they do for themselves, on the same day, at the same price and percentage. This ensures transparency, alignment, and no front running.

Higher bond yields make fixed income more attractive, especially for risk-averse investors. A bond ladder strategy—buying bonds with staggered maturities—can help manage risk and capture higher yields without locking in long-term exposure.

The COWZ ETF focuses on companies with strong free cash flow, which is a more reliable indicator than earnings. It has outperformed the broader market over five years, but it’s still concentrated in energy and technology, and individual stock picks may be more effective.

QXO is in a strong downtrend, has declining earnings, and is high-risk despite positive free cash flow and new management. It’s best considered as a speculative, high-reward addition to a small portion of a portfolio, with potential for entry during panic selling.

Higher bond yields increase the cost of capital and reduce the valuation of growth stocks like tech, which rely on future earnings. Utilities are especially sensitive due to high leverage and margin compression when rates rise.

Tokenization digitizes assets, improving liquidity and settlement speed, but it doesn’t solve core issues like asset quality or trust. It’s a new ledger format, not a solution to the fundamental challenges of ownership and oversight.

Chat with AI

Loading...

Pro features

Go deeper with this episode

Unlock creator-grade tools that turn any transcript into show notes and subtitle files.