September 4th, 2026: Iran’s Economic Lifeline Is Starting to Break & Rival Ukrainian Agents Open Fire

It's Friday, the 4th of September. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right. Let's get briefed. First up, America's economic campaign in blockade against Iran is beginning to seriously impact the regime. Driving oil shipments down 85% and leaving Tehran with just months of gasoline and reserve. Later in the show, a gunfight between Ukraine's rival intelligence services leaves three officers wounded and exposes a dangerous power struggle inside Keefe. Well, say what you will about the US intel community, but they rarely get in fire fights amongst themselves. That's just bad form. Plus, Pakistan says it killed 15 militants attempting to cross from Afghanistan after a firefight lasting more than a day. And in today's back of the brief, Syria begins destroying the remnants of Bashar al-Assad's secret chemical weapons program. But first, today's PDB spotlight. For decades, Iran became remarkably skilled at surviving American sanctions. The regime moved oil aboard unregistered tankers, routed transactions through front companies and foreign banks, smuggled goods across its borders and paid intermediaries to assume the risks that legitimate businesses would not. But a new report from warriors suggests that system is beginning to break down. We've been tracking the impact of America's naval blockade and expanding sanctions campaign on Iran's economy and internal stability. We've already reported on the country's gasoline deficit, medicine shortages, and collapsing currency. The new development is that three senior Iranian sources now say Tehran is running out of affordable ways to keep its sanctioned economy connected to the outside world. The blockade has dramatically reduced Iran's ability to export oil while America's expanded secondary sanctions are threatening the countries and banks and businesses that continue dealing with Tehran. Those companies and governments now face a choice. Severe their remaining connections to Iran or risk losing access to the American financial system and the dollar transactions needed to conduct international business. And for many of them, Iran simply isn't worth that risk. Iranian crude loadings have fallen to approximately 260,000 barrels per day, that's according to the commodity analytics firm Kepler. One year ago, Iran was loading roughly 1.7 million barrels per day. That represents a decline of nearly 85 percent in the country's most important source of revenue. Now Tehran insists that it still has tens of millions of barrels stored aboard tankers that are outside the American blockade zone. But having oil and finding someone willing to buy, transport, and process the payments, those are entirely different things. One of the Iranian officials told Reuters that intermediaries are now backing away or demanding considerably more money to help Tehran move its crude. And that creates a compounding problem for the regime. As oil revenue falls, Iran has less foreign currency available to pay the premiums demanded by smugglers and tanker operators, front companies, and foreign financial networks. The sanctions evasion system becomes more expensive. At precisely the moment, that Tehran has less money available to operate it. And one of Iran's most important commercial escape routes has already been closed. As we reported back in August on the PDB, the United Arab Emirates, the UAE, suspended all trade and commercial exchanges and financial dealings with Iran. The UAE was, frankly, more than another Iranian trading partner. Dubai served as a gateway through which Iranian businesses could purchase goods, move money, and connect with international suppliers that would not deal with them directly. Before the war, the UAE supplied approximately 30% of Iran's imports. Now, an Iranian trader tells Reuters that suppliers are demanding cash, transactions must be routed through additional countries, and shipments are taking longer and becoming much more expensive. President Masood Pasezhkin recently acknowledged that Iranian trade has fallen between 25 and 35% with imports suffering more than exports. Inside Iran, the consequences are becoming increasingly difficult to conceal. The real has fallen from approximately 1 million against the dollar that would be about a year ago to now more than 2.2 million against the dollar. Official figures put average annual inflation at nearly 70%, prices for food, beverages, tobacco, or increasing in almost twice that rate. Unemployment reached 9.1% this spring, while approximately 450,000 fewer Iranians are working then just one year ago. And for those who still have jobs, well, the numbers barely add up. The average monthly salary in Iran is now worth approximately $125 US dollars, while official estimates put basic household expenses at roughly $450 per month. One private sector employee in Tehran described the situation to Reuters, quote, "We are getting poorer every day." And Iran's leaders understand where that kind of pressure can lead. The regime is still confronting the political consequences of the nationwide demonstrations that had crushed in January, when thousands of protesters were killed by the IRGC in the Pasezh militia. Gasoline shortages, unpaid wages, unemployment, or another sudden increase in prices, they could trigger further civil unrest. Reuters reports that the conflict is now entering a phase in which Washington and Tehran are each trying to influence the other's domestic politics. The Trump administration hopes economic pressure will push Iranians against the regime and force Tehran to accept American demands. Iran, meanwhile, is betting that disrupted shipping and higher energy prices will fuel inflation in the U.S. and weaken support for the war before November's midterm elections. Neither strategy has yet produced a decisive result. Iran has not accepted Washington's demands or returned to negotiations. And economic suffering does not automatically translate into political surrender, particularly when the regime's leadership and IRGC are fine with pushing that pain and suffering down to the population. It's not like the leadership of the IRGC commanders are political elite and Iran are going to miss any meals or sit in a gas station line. The regime has extensive experience, repressing unrest and forcing ordinary Iranians to absorb the consequences of the regime's decisions. And Tehran could also respond to additional economic pressure with more military escalation. Still, this new reporting suggests the Washington's campaign is entering a more consequential phase. Iran is not simply losing oil revenue, the networks that Tehran once relied on to work around American pressure are becoming too expensive to sustain. If those channels continue closing, the regime will have less money to finance the government, fewer ways to import essential goods and less ability to shield itself from growing anger at home. Okay, coming up next, three Ukrainian intelligence officers are wounded in a shootout between rival intelligence agencies. And a 36-hour border battle leaves 15 militants dead in Pakistan. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, we have all heard those radio heads about the IRS. You know, the ones I'm talking about, they tell you to be afraid, be very afraid, and they try to frighten you into calling. Well, tax relief advocates is different. Look, if you owe money to the IRS, whether it's $5,000 or $50,000 or $500,000, TRA has a solution to your tax problem. Don't lose hope. TRA could reduce or even eliminate what you owe to the IRS. Their passion is taxes and helping individuals and businesses fix their IRS problems. They've got over 1,000 five-star Google reviews and an A+ with a better business bureau. Here's the thing. You do not need to be afraid of the IRS any longer. Generous tax relief programs are now available that can give you a fresh start. So don't wait. Simply visit tra.com. That's tra.com or call the number 800-583-6515. Once again, that number 800-583-6515. Tax relief advocates, real solutions for real people. Welcome back to the PDB. There was a gunfight in Kiev this week and oddly, Russia had nothing to do with it. Instead, the fight came from within Ukraine's own security establishment, where a bitter rivalry between two intelligence agencies turned violent. Before I walk you through exactly how this ended with armed men shooting at each other in Ukrainian capital, let me explain who we're talking about and why this apparently so much bad blood between them. On one side is the SPU. That's Ukraine's domestic security and counterintelligence service. The other is HUR. The country's military intelligence agency. For comparison, think of the SPU as roughly Ukraine's FBI, while HUR is closer to the US's defense intelligence agency. But with its own forces carrying out covert operations. These are two of the most important organizations in Ukraine's war against Russia. Here on the PDB, when we've discussed many times, I'll both have carried out clandestine operations inside Russia and Russia occupied territory, including assassinations of enemy military officers. But while they're supposed to be focused on the same enemy, people familiar with the agencies who spoke to the Wall Street Journal say they've also been increasingly competing with one another for influence, resources, and clout inside Keeve. That rivalry has only deepened following major leadership changes. Much of that change has centered around HUR, which Carillo Boudinov spent years transforming the organization into one of Ukraine's most prominent institutions during the war. Then in January, Zelensky tapped Boudinov for an even more powerful position, naming him his chief of staff after his predecessor resigned amid a corruption scandal. The move brought Boudinov directly into Zelensky's inner circle at a time when the president was looking to strengthen his team on national security and U.S.-backed negotiations over the war. That left someone else to take over HUR. Bradley Aleshenko, a former foreign intelligence chief, replaced Boudinov and has adopted a lower profile approach, showing less interest in publicly celebrating the agency's daring military operations. But Boudinov hasn't exactly disappeared from the picture. People familiar with the HUR say he continues to wield considerable influence over his former agency, particularly among fighters in an elite HUR-controlled paramilitary organization, known as the "teamore special forces". "Teamore" includes thousands of experienced soldiers many of whom reportedly remain fiercely loyal to Boudinov. One of the units operating under "Teamore" is the Russian volunteer corps, that's a group made up of Russian citizens who have chosen to fight against Moscow on Ukraine's behalf. Its deputy commander is a Russian national named Stepan Kalpanov. Now in late August the SBU detained Kalpanov and held him for roughly a week without charges according to his lawyer. By Tuesday, the Russian volunteer corps was publicly appealing for information about where he was being held. Later that day, SBU's special forces known as Alpha Group brought Kalpanov to an apartment in central Kiev, being used by HUR-backed "teamore" fighters, where the SBU intended to carry out a search as part of its investigation. But the "teamore" fighters refused to let them in, and when the two sides couldn't reach an agreement, the fighters called their "superiors". Their commander then arrived with additional soldiers. So what started with the detention of one Russian fighter was quickly turning into an arms standoff between elite forces tied to two rival Ukrainian intelligence services. By late evening, dozens of armed men had gathered in the courtyard of the apartment complex. And then around 11 p.m., the situation exploded, with residents hearing gunfire lasting into Wednesday morning. Now exactly who fired the first shot remains disputed. But whoever started it, three members of the HUR-backed force were wounded. Kalpanov was subsequently released from SBU custody, and his lawyer says it's still unclear exactly what he was accused of. Which brings us to what may be the most damaging part of this chaotic scene for Zelensky. His administration is already facing investigations into corruption among senior officials, and wrongdoing inside parts of the military, while Russia, of course, continues escalating its war. Now on top of all of that, Zelensky asked to explain how a feud between two of their country's premier intelligence agencies became serious enough for their elite forces to exchange gunfire in the capital. He's demanded that his intelligence chiefs provide a clear explanation of what happened, while Ukraine's main investigative agency has now opened a formal probe. Alright, I want to turn now to the increasingly volatile border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where Pakistani forces say they killed 15 militants attempting to cross into their country earlier this week. According to Pakistan's military, the militants were detected Tuesday, as they attempted to enter North Waziristan from neighboring Afghanistan, triggering a gun battle that lasted roughly 36 hours. Many officials identified the militants as members of Tervik, a Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, and said troops recovered a significant amount of weapons and ammunition following the fighting. Now as we've discussed before on the PDB, the TTP is separate from Afghanistan's Taliban government, but closely aligned with it, and the group's activities have become the central source of an increasingly dangerous confrontation between Islamabad and Kabul. Afghanistan says TTP leaders and fighters have found sanctuary across the border since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021. That of course was following the chaotic US withdrawal, and they say they allow the group to use Afghanistan as a base for attacks inside Pakistan. The Taliban government of course denies those allegations. Islamabad also accused India of sponsoring the militants involved in this week's infiltration attempt, something that Pakistan has repeatedly alleged about the TTP and other militant groups. Both New Delhi and Kabul denies supporting militants targeting Pakistan, and neither government is commented on this latest incident. But the timing is significant because Pakistan and Afghanistan are once again trying to find a diplomatic way out of their confrontation. Just one day before the latest fighting was announced, Pakistan's foreign ministry said improved relations with Afghanistan would depend on what it called "verifiable written assurances" that Afghan territory will not be used to launch attacks against Pakistan. China is also attempting to mediate. At Chinese envoy visited Islamabad this week as part of an effort to ease tensions between the two countries after Beijing hosted talks in April aimed at ending the fighting. Those negotiations followed a major escalation back in February that killed hundreds of people and eventually sought Pakistan carry out airstrikes inside Afghanistan. Since then the two governments have avoided another major round of fighting. But according to the Associated Press, Pakistan and Afghanistan have not held direct talks since those Chinese hosted negotiations back in April. And this week's border battle underscores why the relationship remains so fragile. Pakistan's military says the attempted infiltration is further evidence that Afghanistan's Taliban government is either unwilling or unable to prevent TTP militants from using its territory to attack Pakistan. So despite months of mediation and of relative reduction in fighting, the fundamental dispute that pushed Pakistan and Afghanistan into open conflict earlier this year, well that remains unresolved. Alright, coming up in the back of the brief, Syria's new government begins dismantling a clandestine chemical weapons program concealed under Bashar al-Assad's regime. More on that when we come back. Hey Mike Baker here. The president's daily brief is brought to you by mod. Mod prescribes a once or twice daily, medaffinal drink that can keep you energized, focused, and alert, and that all sounds very good. Here's the deal. Caffeine energy drinks block what's called a denison. That's a chemical that makes you tired. It builds up and when caffeine wears off, well, you get that crash. Medaffinal works differently. It engages pathways in your brain, dopamine, no repin different histamine, rexin, to achieve energy and alertness for 10 to 12 hours. Medaffinal was invented in the 70s, and since then it's been used by soldiers and pilots astronauts, anybody in high-stake solutions for concentration and alertness. Visit mod.com for a free consultation and get 10% off your first order plus free shipping with promo code PDB. That's promo code PDB at mod.com. See their website for important safety information, and I want to thank mod for sponsoring the PDB. In today's back of the brief, I want to talk about how serious new government is dismantling one of the darkest remnants of their country's civil war. The chemical weapons program that Bashar al-Assad's regime used against its own people and tried to hide from the world. For the first time in more than a decade, international inspectors have now verified that the destruction of the program's materials is actually taking place. This latest development began back in May when Syria's new leadership discovered remnants of Assad's chemical weapons program. Following what they found were raw materials and munitions, similar to those used in deadly chemical attacks during Syria's civil war. But that apparently wasn't all that Assad left behind. The UN says authorities identified another chemical weapons production facility, a previously undisclosed chemical used to produce nerve agents, empty chemical munitions, and two chemical weapons storage facilities. And that brings us to last month. The organization for the prohibition of chemical weapons, and you say to yourself, "I'll bet there's an acronym for that," and you'd be right, it's OPCW, set a team into Syria to begin verifying the destruction of some of what the new government had uncovered. And then on Thursday, you won officials revealed what those inspectors found. The OPCW is now verified the "irroversible destruction" of 42 aerial bombs associated with Assad's former chemical weapons program. Now there's an important distinction here, these weren't 42 bombs sitting around filled with seren or another nerve agent. They were empty aerial bombs designed to deliver chemicals, part of what the OPCW classifies as "category 3 chemical weapons." But that doesn't make the destruction any less significant. Because for the first time since 2014, international inspectors have verified the destruction of chemical munitions inside Syria. You may recall that Assad's regime was supposed to cooperate in an international effort more than eight. decade ago to dismantle and destroy Syria's chemical arsenal. Assad was supposed to be giving the weapons up. Yet all these years later, Syria's new leadership is still uncovering previously undisclosed facilities, chemicals and munitions connected to Assad's program. But the new government isn't simply destroying what it finds. It's also beginning to pursue the people allegedly responsible for building and operating Assad's chemical arsenal. Authorities in Damascus have so far taken 18 suspects into custody, including former high-level military, political and technical officials allegedly connected to the program. Now some of those cases appear to be moving toward the courtroom. Syria's ambassador to the UN says the government is preparing to hold the first court hearing involving people suspected of participating in the chemical weapons program. Syria's ambassador says Syria is "protecting the world and the region through such work." There is, however, one complication. The ambassador accused Israel of interfering with that mission, saying recent Israeli strikes inside Syria have disrupted some search and destruction operations and put the Syrian teams carrying out that work at risk. The broader picture here at the end of the day is that more than a decade after Assad supposedly began surrendering his chemical arsenal, international inspectors are still uncovering pieces of what is regime left behind. And today is no different. Tune in at 10 p.m. Eastern on the first TV for the situation report. Also, you can catch it in past episodes on our YouTube channel, I hope you'll check that out. Just search up at President's Daily Brief. You can also find the show on podcast platforms throughout podcast land. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. [Music]