It's Wednesday, the 30th of September. Would you look at that the last day of the month? This entire year is flying by. I guess that's what happens. When the year is chock full of conflicts and crises and curfewels, welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker from your eyes and ears on the world stage. And currently, in London, where I have it on good authority, actually, that the king is our frequent listener of the PDB, Hazal. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Interferance Strategy of using Hormuz as economic leverage is starting to falter, as golf producers find ways around the pressure. I'll have the details. Later in the show, the Kremlin is pushing Russian companies to pay for their own to drone defenses. That's right. As Ukrainian strikes increasingly threaten industrial sites deep inside Russia. And in a classic communist move, if a company there chooses not to pay to protect their property, well, the state can seize that property because, well, yay, Stalin. Plus, America's military cyber forces are being brought into the fight to protect November's midterm elections from foreign hackers and influence operations. And in today's back of the brief, a soul says North Korean minds were behind the explosion that wounded two South Korean personnel inside the DMC just last week, raising fresh tensions along the border. But first, today's PDB spotlight. For months, Iran has worked to turn the state of Hormuz into one of its most powerful weapons in the conflict with the US. Basically, disrupt the flow of oil, drive up costs for regional producers and the global economy, and use that pressure to extract concessions from Washington. And that leverage has worked for them over the past few months. But that situation has been changing recently. Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded sharply in September, reaching their highest levels since the war began in February. According to data from Kepler, cited by Reuters, regional exports climbed to more than 16 million barrels a day this month, with nearly 10 million barrels a day moving through the state of Hormuz. Saudi exports have more than doubled from August levels, and 19 of the largest class of crude tankers pass through the state just last week. In other words, Iran is not lost the ability to threaten the state of Hormuz, but its effort to choke off the waterway is becoming less effective. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers have spent months adapting. Tankers are moving under tighter security. Producers are using ship-to-ship transfers and alternate routes. Saudi Arabia has restarted its east-west pipeline, allowing crude to move across the kingdom and out through the Red Sea. The UAE has its own pipeline reaching Fujara up on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the state of Hormuz entirely. These alternatives are expensive, imperfect, and still vulnerable to attack, but they're working well enough to get substantially more oil out of the region. And Iran has a much bigger problem. Tehran does not have anything comparable to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea route or the UAE's bypass pipeline. Since the US reinstated its maritime blockade in July, Iran has been unable to move newly-loaded crude through the state of Hormuz in meaningful quantities. Its oil is effectively trapped behind the blockade. And the oil that Iran had prepositioned beyond the reach of the blockade has largely been sold. According to Wall Street Journal, Iran had roughly 29 million barrels of crude aboard vessels outside the blockade earlier this month. That now fall into around 15 million barrels. Kepler estimates those remaining stocks could be depleted by early to mid-October if sales continue at the current pace. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson went further over the weekend, predicting Iran could make its final major deliveries to China within roughly two weeks. That is the administration's assessment. Iran has rejected claims that Washington has broken its control of the state of Hormuz. Iran tried to make the state a problem for everyone else. Increasingly, the state is becoming a bigger problem for Iran. And that has implications for the negotiations that we've been following. Well, such as they are. Control of the waterway was supposed to give Tehran leverage. Iran could restrict the flow of Gulf oil and offered to reopen the waterway in exchange for it into the American blockade, sanctions relief, unfrozen assets, and other concessions. The oil market is beginning to reflect the increased traffic through the street. Crude prices move lower Tuesday as traders focused on the rebound in Middle Eastern exports, and the reopening of Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, although prices do remain elevated, and the threat to regional infrastructure is still significant. Tehran, of course, says Washington is exaggerating its success. The Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, argued Tuesday that increased shipping doesn't mean that the U.S. controls the straight and insist that Iran still retain substantial leverage there. And Iran still has plenty of ways to cause trouble. It can attack ships, it can target ports, pipelines, refineries, and through the Houthis and other allied groups, the regime can push the fight beyond Hormuz and into the Red Sea. That may be the biggest danger now, because weakening Iran's leverage doesn't automatically make Tehran more willing to compromise. It could create pressure for Iran, or whomever is in charge there, to prove that it can still disrupt the region, especially if its own oil revenues keep shrinking, while its neighbors get more of their crude to market. Coming up next, the Kremlin tells Russian companies to pay for their own drone defenses, while U.S. military cyber forces prepare to protect the mid-term elections from foreign interference. Mike Baker here, with a word about personal health and weight loss. Now, everybody's talking about those weight loss injections, right, because the results have been so dramatic. They work by lowering blood sugar and reducing appetite. But what if you're looking to lose weight and you're not interested in painful weekly injections, or are you not interested when you hear some of those side effects? Well, that's why doctors created a weight loss supplement called lean. That's L-E-A-N, and the results have been remarkable. 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[email protected]. Welcome back to the PDB. Inside Russia, businesses are scrambling to protect their facilities as Ukrainian drones reach beyond the front lines, and the Kremlin has a message for business owners, pay for defenses, or risk losing your property to the state. Well, how very, how very communist of them. Its Russian President Putin's latest wartime shakedown, with companies left guessing what exactly counts as "doing enough." Putin cited a decree late last month, allowing his regime to impose what it calls "temperory management." Ah, that sounds good. A critical infrastructure site that failed to protect themselves against drone attacks. According to the Financial Times, Keyes' drone campaign has destroyed as much as 20% of Russia's refining capacity, and set dozens of commercial warehouses on fire. Protecting infrastructure spread across the world's largest country is, of course, an enormous challenge. But Russia's intelligence services and military want businesses to shoulder more of that responsibility. That's according to a former Kremlin official who spoke with the Financial Times. The official said, quote, "They complained that businesses were sitting on their hands and don't want to lift a finger," and Putin agreed. That complaint followed a long writing argument over who should pay. Now, throughout the war, businesses have sought in government help, with even Alexander Shokin, the head of Russia's Kremlin loyal business lobby, repeatedly urging the state to help finance those defenses. Now, the takeover threat appears to be getting their attention. One drone defense expert says business inquiries increased to fivefold almost overnight after the decree. Putin himself sounded satisfied earlier this month saying, quote, "Compans have got involved and started putting money in," end quote. But spending the money is only part of the problem. Before a company can satisfy the Kremlin, it needs to know what the Kremlin actually requires. Which facilities need protection? What defenses must they install? How does an owner know when enough has been done? Those are basic questions, but the rules still don't clearly answer them. In one industry alone, officials discussed prioritizing 24,000 critical sites out of roughly 700,000 while keeping the list secret. And the answers, some companies have received aren't particularly reassuring. Shopping wall operators seeking clarification were told they could, quote, "decide for themselves," according to a person familiar with the situation who spoke with the financial times. And companies ready to install defenses face another obstacle. Destroying word.
jamming a drone generally requires permits from Russia's security services, and most companies don't have. Those permissions are largely held by a handful of major energy and financial firms. And bringing in reservists, well, that doesn't necessarily get a company around those restrictions, either. A former executive at state-backed oil giant Roseneft told the FT that reservists are not allowed to carry weapons while protecting the facilities. Companies therefore need separate arrangements with Russia's military. Then there's the price tag. A businessman in a Russian region bordered in Ukraine told the financial time he had spent nearly $18 million on air defenses. As the former Roseneft executive put it, this has become, quote, "yet another tax." But the concern goes beyond how much companies will have to pay. Business figures worry that the decree could give the Kremlin another route to nationalization under the cover of national security. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the state has increasingly seized businesses and assets, including property, formerly owned by Western companies. Putin insists that seizing property and facilities isn't his intention, saying he, quote, "never even considered taking anything away." Well, if he says so, I'm sure it must be true. Shifting to the U.S. now. With early voting already underway in some states, Secretary of War or Defense Pete Egg Seth is calling on America's military cyber and intelligence agencies to help keep foreign adversaries out of the midterm elections. Under his directive, U.S. Cyber Command, the National Security Agency and other military agencies, will prioritize their capabilities to identify, disrupt, and neutralize foreign interference. Egg Seth laid out that mission in a memo, dated the 22nd of September, and publicly announced on Monday this week. He directed defense intelligence officials to mobilize every resource, quote, "to defend our election infrastructure from foreign malign influence and assure that every lawful voter can cast their ballot free from foreign intimidation, coercion, or fear," end quote. So, you say to yourself, what will that actually look like? Well, Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell gave us some good insight through an interview with the Associated Press. He says military cyber intelligence teams will work, quote, in lockstep with federal, state, and local partners to defend voting systems and expose foreign influence. Okay, to be fair, that was not particularly good insight, but you know, it's better than nothing. The military's assignment is reportedly to bring its intelligence and cyber capabilities to bear against threats from abroad. Military cybersecurity experts have routinely helped monitor election systems and deter hackers since election equipment was designated critical infrastructure back in 2017. General Joshua Rudd, who leads both cyber command and the NSA, says the two organizations are closely partnered and quote, regularly counter actions by malicious foreign cyber actors, including those intent on interfering with America's democratic process. What the directive does is put renewed emphasis and high level backing behind that national security mission at a time when foreign threats to election systems are growing more sophisticated. But the announcement also comes after significant changes to the civilian agency that has traditionally helped election officials defend those systems. Long time PDB listeners will remember that we've covered here on the PDB how the Trump administration reduced staffing and resources at the cyber security and infrastructure security agency. And you ask yourself is there an acronym for that? And you better believe there is. It's better known as CISA CISA. The agency sits inside the Department of Homeland Security and has served as a key federal partner for state and local election officials. Now, so CISA is still involved. Last week it released an election infrastructure security plan, outlining potential threats and the services that it will continue offering officials ahead of November. With Election Day on November 3rd just weeks away, some Democrats are questioning the timing of both announcements, really Democrats questioning what Republicans do, suggesting the short timeline makes the effort look more like political theater than a genuine push to protect elections. Others argue that the administration would not have needed to scramble if it hadn't dismantled the federal government's election cybersecurity capacity and dismissed its experts earlier in 2025. But from a national security standpoint, having the full weight of the military's cyber and intelligence apparatus focused on protecting the election, well, that is significant. And in today's back of the brief, South Korea says last week's explosion at the DMZ was caused by North Korean landmines reopening an old and dangerous source of tension on the peninsula. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. What happened to the last time you called a business and nobody picked up the phone? Well, odds are you simply called the next business listed there in the phone book. Okay, fine. Nobody uses a phone book anymore. But, you know, my point is, if you don't answer the phone, your competitor will. And that's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, that spelled Q-U-O. Quo brings calls, texts, and voicemails into one organized place for fast team responses. Set-up takes minutes on any device with zero IT hassle. 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At the time, it wasn't immediately clear whether the explosion involved old mines already in the area, mines that had shifted over time or something more recent. Now Seoul says it has an answer. South Korea's Defense Minister says a joint investigation with the United Nations Command found an additional North Korean anti-personnel mine near the blast site. Investigators also concluded the mines did not drift into the area, and they were located clearly south of the military demarcation line. In other words, Seoul says North Korean mines ended up on the South Korean side of the line. South Korean officials believe they were likely placed during North Korea's recent effort to reinforce and fortify the border. Pyongyang has spent months building barriers, laying mines and hardening positions along parts of the frontier, as relations between the two Koreas have deteriorated. The biggest unanswered question, of course, is intent. South Korean Defense Minister Kang Shin-jul says investigators still want to determine whether North Korea knowingly placed the mines in an area where South Korean troops could enter and be injured. North Korea is not publicly commented on the incident, but Seoul says responsibility rests with Pyongyang and argues the placement of those mines violated the armistice agreement that halted fighting in the Korean War back in 1953. Kang says South Korea has response options available and plans to implement them in stages, although he declined to say exactly what those measures might be. At the same time, Seoul says it wants North Korea to come to the table so both sides can examine what happened. While that creates a difficult balancing act for South Korean President Lee Jae-myeong, who's been trying to reopen some form of dialogue with Pyongyang, even as North Korea increasingly treats the South as an enemy state. A similar incident in 2015 left South Korea's soldiers badly wound it after North Korean mines exploded inside the DMZ. Seoul responded by restarting loud speaker broadcasts across the border, Pyongyang threatened military action, and the two sides quickly slid into a tense standoff before senior officials eventually reached an agreement.
by visiting pdbpremium.com. It's really that simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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