Hey, Mike Baker here, me and the entire PDB team would like to thank you for listening to the PDB, of course. And we invite you to become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by simply visiting PDB premium dot com. You'll get ad free episodes are exclusive weekly newsletter and regular ask me anything episodes, I mean, ask me anything, but then reason again, just join us at PDB premium dot com. It's Tuesday, the 29th of September. Look at that. Done with another month, welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Oh, and look at that coming to you this morning from an airport lounge somewhere in an undisclosed airport location. Yeah, be harsh lighting of an airport lounge. All right, let's get briefed. The first of the latest US Iran peace effort may not be completely dead after all, although you'd be hard pressed to locate a pulse with mediators reportedly still working as both sides dig in over nuclear concessions and sanctions relief. Later in the show, Ukraine says it continues to gain ground in northern Donetsk, retaking territory as its forces try to disrupt Russia's latest push in the east. Plus two North Korean soldiers captured while fighting for Russia have triggered a diplomatic dispute between South Korea and Ukraine. And at today's back of the brief, a new report and says Egypt's intelligence chief personally warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the 7th October attacks have claimed that the Israeli Prime Minister disputes. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Yesterday, we reported that President Trump had rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the street of Khormuz and ease the fighting. But today, it looks like diplomacy is continuing. Well, in some fashion, supposedly, mediators, say indirect talks between Washington and Tehran, are continuing, and despite Trump's public rejection, the proposal itself may not be dead. Officials involved in the negotiations are describing slight progress and positive signals from both sides, look how optimistic they are, even as the two governments remained far apart on what any agreement would actually require. Of course, if I add a million reall for every time mediators said there was progress in these negotiations, it will allow to have something like $10 or $20. The biggest change, apparently, is what Washington now wants to put at the center of those talks. Iran's proposal focused heavily on reopening the street of Khormuz, easing the U.S. blockade and creating a short window for negotiations. The regime wants Washington to back away from some of the economic pressure, now squeezing the country, and eventually return to the framework that both sides discussed earlier this year. And then reportedly are asking for some of their frozen assets to be handed over. The mediators are now reportedly pressing Iran to make some kind of concession on its nuclear program as part of an even broader agreement, and that is a much harder task. Iranian officials have publicly insisted they are not prepared to make nuclear concessions. Tehran is also demanding that Washington move first by easing economic and military pressure before expecting Iran to give up anything in return. It almost sounds like Iran still believes they are arguing from a position of strength. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Raghshi said over the weekend that Tehran remains open to diplomacy but also warned that Iran is prepared for renewed fighting if negotiations fail. So both sides are still talking, reportedly, but neither side appears eager to make the first major concession. There is some indication though that Iran's public position may be harder than its private one. The Wall Street Journal reports that a senior Middle Eastern official involved in the diplomacy believes that Iran had been close to making compromises on its nuclear program earlier this year during talks with Vice President JD Vance. According to that official, Tehran would likely want explicit assurances that Israel would not launch another attack after any agreement. And in what's meaningful restrictions, of course, on Iran's nuclear program. Iran wants relief from the blockade in sanctions, along with some confidence that making a deal will not simply leave it vulnerable to another Israeli strike a few weeks or months later. And of course, complicating matters, both sides appear to believe that they still have the leverage. U.S. officials believe the blockade is inflicting serious economic damage and weakening Iran's position at the table. The Iranian regime, on the other hand, appears convinced that it can survive prolonged economic pressure and withstand another round of American strikes if necessary. Iran may also believe time could work in its favor politically. Some regional officials say that the Iranian regime is watching the U.S. midterm elections and calculating that Washington's willingness to escalate could change afterward if the Republicans lose control of the House and/or the Senate. At the same time, there's no doubt that the economic pressure inside the country is taking a serious toll. The reall has continued to weaken sanctions remain tight, and Tehran's ability to use the straight-up or moves his leverage may not be what it was earlier in the war. More oil is moving through the region, and U.S. officials argue that Iran is gradually losing some of its ability to control the flow of shipping. Regional officials say power inside Tehran is increasingly concentrated around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, and the IRGC as traditionally taken a much harder line toward the U.S. and may see compromise under pressure as a sign of weakness. And that creates a difficult environment for the mediators trying to keep these talks alive. And for that, I award myself yet again the PDB Statement of the Obvious Award. All right, coming up next, Ukraine claims they're gaining further ground in Deneck, while two captured North Korean soldiers spark a diplomatic dispute between Seoul and Keefe. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now I've been a business owner for many years, and I want to take just a moment to talk to all you small business operators out there. Here's the thing. Running any small business means dealing with constant unexpected expenses, you know what I'm talking about. 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When Ukraine first announced Operation Vivaldi earlier this month, it aimed to repel Russian forces from a dangerous approach toward Kyiv's eastern strongholds. Now, reports from the front line reveal how the operation has pushed deeper into Russian occupied territory. Ukrainian Brigadier General Andrei Beletsky has commanded operations in the area since last month. Speaking to Reuters, he says his forces recaptured to another 51 square kilometers that's roughly 20 square miles in Northern Dinesque during what Kyiv is calling the "third season" of the campaign. That includes three settlements Ukraine says it's liberated, along with two others, where Ukraine has restored control. As it stands, Beletsky says Operation Vivaldi has recaptured 68 square miles, which for reference is an area slightly smaller than Washington, D.C. As we previously discussed on the PDB, this campaign was formally announced earlier this month as a counteroffensive in Northern Dinesque, focused around the approaches to the city of Lyman. The goal was to push Russian forces back from an area that Moscow could use to pressure cities that anchor Ukraine's so-called fortress belt of heavily fortified cities and towns in Dinesque. The operations name Vivaldi refers to Antonio Vivaldi, the Italian composer, best known for the four seasons. The Ukrainian commanders describe the operation in phases or seasons. This is the third, and Kyiv says it's become a turning point. For more than four years, this part of Dinesque has seen some of the worst toughest fighting, with static entrenched lines, grinding attacks, and painfully incremental gains. Around Lyman, Russian forces were trying to turn that pressure into a route toward Ukraine's remaining strongholds in the region. Ukraine is now saying it's pushed that effort back even further. The Institute for the Study of Wars' Operation Vivaldi has achieved what it calls a quote "operational significant goal" by disrupting Moscow's efforts to conduct a wide encirclement of Ukraine's cities and towns in Dinesque. Ukraine's third army corps says Russian forces have lost around 2,000 personnel during the operation, while more than 250 Russian troops have been taken prisoner. The corps also says Russian troops surrendered in groups, including officers, drone pilots, and artillery personnel. As has been the case throughout this conflict, not every figure can be independently verified in real-time, but in fact you're everybody.
That points to more than Ukraine taking back territory. It suggests that Ukrainian forces are also breaking apart the units and systems Russia has been using to hold this part of the front. And Ukraine used some unusual tools to do it. According to the Third Army Corps, Ukrainian forces used modified Soviet-era BTR-60s, the eight-willed armored personnel carriers, to break through Russian defenses. But the vehicles were not used in the traditional manner. Ukraine says the old armored vehicles have been converted so they can be driven remotely, as attack vehicles to strike heavily fortified Russian positions without Ukrainian troops inside. Despite the reported gains, Russian forces are still applying heavy pressure elsewhere in the region, especially farther south, where Moscow has been trying to push deeper into the city and surrounding areas. It's not clear yet just what the fourth season of Vivaldi will bring. All right, staying with the war in Ukraine, the transfer of two North Korean soldiers captured while fighting for Russia to South Korea has opened a major diplomatic dispute between Kiev and Seoul. South Korean officials say the transfer came with a promise of secrecy. But Ukrainian President Zelensky publicly announced their capture and their arrival in South Korea before the U.N. during a General Assembly speech, so not particularly secret. South Korea took their complaint directly to Ukraine's acting ambassador, Andrei Vyeshkin, on Monday. Now the foreign ministry summoned him, expressed "strong regret" and demanded an official exploration and apology over Zelensky's announcement last week. South Korea's presidential office had made a similar demand on Sunday. By Monday, Seoul wanted Ukraine's representative in the room to hear it directly. Kiev is telling a different story, Ukraine's presidential office says there was no confidentiality agreement. Now, whatever the exact agreement was, you're probably wondering why Seoul wanted the transfer kept quiet. Well, it was rather straightforward. South Korea says it was trying to protect both soldiers, along with their families, still inside North Korea. What we know is that the two men were captured in Russia's Kursk region, where North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had previously sent troops to help his BFF Putin. North captured soldiers reportedly told their Ukrainian captors that they wanted to go to South Korea, including in media interviews, and during a meeting with the South Korean lawmaker, sending them back to Pyongyang, of course, would have raised serious concerns about their safety. We've discussed before around the PDB how Kim is praised North Korean soldiers who commit suicide, rather than be captured while fighting Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Reaching South Korea, though, does not mean the uncertainty is over for them. Seoul's Unification Ministry said Monday that their cases will be reviewed under relevant laws and past practices. They face questioning and security screening, of course, before authorities decide whether to grant them protection and begin resettlement. That investigation and temporary protection process generally lasts up to 90 days. Now another question remains unanswered by both governments. Did sending them to South Korea formally end their status as prisoners of war? Try to keep North Seoul as explained the precise legal basis for the transfer, or whether it formally ended their POW status. The Third Geneva Convention generally requires prisoners of war to be released and repatriated after active hostilities end, although that doesn't necessarily rule out an earlier release or transfer to another country. And in this case, even the question of nationality gets complicated. International law treats North Korea as a separate state, while South Korea considers North Koreans its citizens. That difference could still create legal and diplomatic friction. And this may not be, frankly, the last time the Kievan Seoul had to work through these questions. There are indications that North Korea plays to send even more troops to Ukraine to fight for the Kremlin. And today's back of the brief The Wall Street Journal reports that Egypt's intelligence chief personally warned Prime Minister Netanyahu about an impending attack from Gaza before the brutal 7 October Hamas attacks, more on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message to homeowners. Now, one of the most frustrating things about owning a home is that major repairs never happen at a convenient time, right? Your water heater quits, an electrical issue pops up, your AC goes down during the hottest week of the summer, it's never during winter, isn't. 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[email protected]. In today's back of the brief, nearly three years after the October 7 attacks, we're learning about another warning that may have reached Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu personally. According to a new report from the Wall Street Journal, Egypt's intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, called Netanyahu in early October of 2023 to warn him about signs of a possible attack coming out of Gaza. The journal says that call came after two previous Egyptian warnings had already gone unheeded. Now Netanyahu strongly disputes that account. After the journal published its report, the Prime Minister said he did not meet or speak with Kamel in the months before the attack and said no Israeli intelligence source passed an Egyptian warning to him. So Arab officials say the warning was delivered directly, Netanyahu says it was not. According to the journal, Egypt's first warning came months earlier in June 2023 and was fairly vague. Egyptian officials reportedly told their Israeli counterparts that conditions in Gaza were becoming increasingly volatile. Then in September, Kamel traveled to Israel with a more serious warning, telling officials that the situation could blow up. The journal says that was followed by the personal phone call to Netanyahu just days before Hamas launched its attacks. There were reportedly warnings from elsewhere as well. Officials in the United Arab Emirates, the UAE, had become increasingly concerned about Hamas, noting changes in the rhetoric of Hamas leader Yaya Sinwa and more frequent medics between Hamas and Palestinian Islamic jihad. The journal says the Maradi officials shared some of those concerns with both Israel and the US. Also, according to previous reporting, Israeli forces had obtained a Hamas battle plan before the October 7th events, but reportedly dismissed as unrealistic. Israeli observers stationed near Gaza had warned about increased Hamas training and Israeli intelligence at very little human intelligence inside Gaza that might have provided a clearer picture of what Hamas was actually preparing to do. Now it should be noted that the plans for the 7 October attacks were of course a closely held secret within Hamas itself. The broader problem appears to have been an assumption on the part of Israeli leadership and security personnel. Israeli officials had largely concluded that Hamas did not want a major war and would not risk launching an attack on the scale of October 7th. So even as individual warnings reportedly began piling up, they were being filtered through an intelligence assessment that Hamas simply wasn't going to do it. And that may be the most important lesson here. Intelligence failures don't always happen because, well, nobody saw anything coming. Sometimes the warnings are there, but they don't fit the prevailing theory, so they get discounted, explained away, or ignored. And nearly three years later, Israel is still arguing over exactly who was warned, what they were told, and whether anyone could have stopped what came next. And that my friends is the president's daily brief for Tuesday the 29th of September. Now if you have any questions or comments and I hope you do just reach out to me at
[email protected]. And I hope you'll consider becoming a premium member of the president's daily brief. It is very easy, it's actually easy, peasy as they say. I'm not sure who they are, but you'll get every episode, add free plus exclusive content, just visit pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker that I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon.
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