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It's Monday, the 28th of September.
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage.
And yes, still on the road.
And well, yes, I'm still recovering from the weekend's painful Ole Miss loss to Florida.
But to be fair.
To give them credit, Florida played a very fine game.
As they say, hotty toddy.
All right, let's get briefed.
First up, President Trump shuts down Iran's latest peace proposal,
rejecting a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,
as U.S. officials say that renewed American strikes could follow the midterm elections.
Later in the show, British police arrest several men on suspected terrorism charges
near RAF Fairford, that's the air base used by the U.S.
to strike.
The U.S. has also warned that the U.S. military may not be able to defend the U.S. troops
against the U.S. as a result of the U.S. attack on Iran.
But the U.S. attack on Iran.
The U.S. attack on
Iran.
But the U.S. attack on
Iran.
The U.S. attack on Iran.
But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
President Trump has reportedly rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
and begin winding down the war, apparently betting that Washington has more leverage
right now, and that there's little reason to give that leverage away.
The proposal was fairly straightforward.
Iran offered a seven-day pause in the fighting, seven days, along with reopening the Strait
of Hormuz and beginning broader negotiations that could, possibly, sometime, include a
U.S.-led nuclear program.
In return, the regime wanted the U.S. to lift its naval blockade, ease sanctions on Iranian
oil, and unfreeze some Iranian assets.
Trump's answer was no.
Speaking to Reporter Saturday, the president said he had rejected the deal and argued that
Iran was coming forward because its economy was being squeezed.
His position, at least publicly, is that Tehran needs an agreement more urgently than Washington
does.
As we've been reporting here on the PDB, the U.S. blockade on Tehran is likely to be a
major threat to the U.S. economy.
The U.S. blockade has sharply restricted Iran's ability to move oil and generate revenue.
Sanctions are adding to the pressure.
Inflation is running at extraordinary levels.
The Iranian currency has fallen sharply, fuel prices have climbed, and the country's broader
economy has been deteriorating.
So from the administration's perspective, the pressure campaign appears to be doing
exactly what it was designed to do: make the cost of continuing this war increasingly difficult
for Tehran to absorb.
That helps explain why Trump and Tehran are struggling.
Trump may see no reason to lift the blockade simply because Iran has offered to reopen
the Strait.
And there's another factor here.
Washington has spent months trying to reduce the leverage that Iran gained by choking traffic
through the Strait.
The U.S. and its partners have managed to keep some shipping moving despite Iranian
threats, which means the pressure for Washington to strike a deal may not be what it was earlier
in the conflict.
The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump has privately told Tehran that the U.S.
aides, he believes that renewed U.S. bombing of Iran is likely after the November midterm elections.
Now, that doesn't mean that a decision has been made. The same reporting says that Trump remains
reluctant to launch another major combat operation, in part because Washington wants to conserve
munitions for other possible contingencies. And at the same time, talks are reportedly still
continuing through mediators. So, what we're saying is not necessarily Trump abandoning
diplomacy. It looks more like an effort to keep all three options open at once, keep negotiating
in some fashion, maintain the economic squeeze, and preserve the threat of another military campaign
if Iran refuses Washington's terms. The other question, and one we've raised here before on
the PDB, is who exactly has the authority in Tehran to make those terms for a deal? Iranian
President Mossadegh said,
says his government is ready to negotiate. But is he in charge? Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi has been carrying proposals to mediators and arguing publicly that diplomacy is the way
out. But does Araghchi have any juice in that new regime? But Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps,
the IRGC, has taken on an increasingly powerful role since this war began. And the IRGC is sending
a very different message. According to the Journal, Iranian diplomats have acknowledged
the crisis of the Iran-Iraq war, and the Iran-Iraq war is a very different message.
The country's deepening economic problems and presented several proposals for ending the war.
But the IRGC has said it's prepared for a long conflict and is resisting new formulas for an
agreement. Not to mention, of course, the issue of Mushtab al-Khamenei, the Claude Rains of Ayatollahs,
neither seen nor heard from since being named the new supreme leader. That leaves a basic
question unanswered, of course. When Iran's diplomats put an offer on the table, does it
mean anything?
If those diplomats aren't actually in charge. And that uncertainty complicates Washington's
calculation. The administration may believe that enough economic pressure will eventually force
the regime to accept more favorable terms. But if different factions inside the Iranian leadership
have different ideas about how much pain the country should absorb or what concessions Iran
can make, then squeezing harder does not automatically produce an agreement. But for now,
Trump seems willing to
maintain the pressure.
All right, coming up next, arrests near the British airbase used by the U.S. for strikes on Iran.
And President Trump pushes Presidents Putin and Zelensky to sit down and make a deal,
while Russia and Ukraine continue their long-range bombing campaigns. I'll be right back.
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real solutions for real people. Welcome back to the BDB. British Counterterrorism Police are
investigating a major security incident outside RAF Fairford. That's a key airbase American bombers
have been using in the war against Iran. Now, five men were reportedly arrested early Sunday
on suspicion of explosives offenses after police received reports of three suspicious vehicles
near the base. Authorities evacuated dozens of nearby homes, established a security cordon,
and brought in an army explosive ordnance team to examine the vehicles. Footage
from the scene showed three white vans near the base with a bomb disposal robot moving around
them. Armed police blocked roads into the area. Helicopters were overhead and roughly 30 emergency
vehicles reportedly responded. Police say the immediate situation appears to be contained,
but counterterrorism investigators are now trying to determine exactly what the men were doing there,
what was inside those vans, and whether the airbase was actually their intended target.
RAF Fairford is one of the most important American bomber,
facilities in Europe. It serves as a forward operating base for U.S. Air Force Global Strike
Command, allowing American long-range bombers to deploy much closer to potential targets,
and particularly in the Middle East. During the war with Iran, Britain authorized the U.S.
to use Fairford for strikes against Iranian missile sites, including targets connected to attacks on
shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. American B-1 bombers have operated from the base, and a B-1 was
sitting on the flight line. The B-1 bomber was a B-1 bomber, and the B-1 bomber was a B-1 bomber.
Iran has also specifically threatened bases like RAF Fairford. Back in July, Iran's Revolutionary
Guard Corps, the IRGC, warned that any foreign base used to launch attacks against Iranian
territory could be considered a legitimate target. Britain responded at the time by saying
its armed forces were prepared to defend the country against threats at home or abroad.
So investigators are going to be looking very closely, of course, at whether they're
any connection between Sunday's arrest and the broader threat environment.
But at this point, well, there's no public
evidence tying these men to Iran. Their identities and nationalities have not been released yet.
Police have not said whether they've found a functioning explosive device or devices,
and they've not confirmed that RAF Fairford itself was the intended target,
and they have not publicly identified a motive. So, as you can see, it's early days in the
investigation. British reporting says investigators are examining materials seized after the arrests
to determine whether they were dangerous and capable of being used in an attack.
Security sources also say authorities are considering the possibility of foreign
state involvement, including Iran, while keeping other possibilities on the table.
Security around Fairford had apparently already been tightened before Sunday's incident.
Residents told reporters that heavy vehicles had been placed across access points in recent weeks,
and security has reportedly also been increased at other bases used by the U.S. in the U.K.
including Lake and Heath and Mildenhall. Officials haven't said those measures were
connected to any specific intelligence about Sunday's suspects. They may just simply reflect
the broader security environment surrounding American military facilities since the Iran war
began. Now, I want to switch the focus to the Ukraine conflict. President Trump said Saturday
that he wants Presidents Zelensky and Putin to make a deal, telling reporters he hopes the two
leaders can reach some kind of settlement before the winter starts.
But there is very little sign of de-escalation right now. Russian attacks killed four people
across Ukraine on Saturday, according to Ukrainian officials, as Moscow continued its campaign of
drone and missile strikes well beyond the front lines. Strikes also hit Kiev and the surrounding
region, injuring civilians and damaging homes, offices, and other buildings. Russia's defense
ministry claims one of its strikes in Kiev damaged a data center supporting mobile internet services
and Starlink communications.
Now, we've not seen a dependent confirmation of that claim, but if accurate, it would fit
Moscow's broader effort to disrupt the communications and infrastructure that Ukraine relies on militarily
and economically. Ukraine, meanwhile, continues taking the fight deep into Russia. Kiev says
its long-range drones struck a significant refinery in the southern Krasnodar region.
Russian officials acknowledged drone attacks there, saying three people were killed and
fires broke out at 2:00 and 2:00 a.m. on Saturday, according to Russian officials. Russia's
defense ministry said the drone attack hit two industrial sites, although they did not provide
details on exactly what was hit. Ukraine has spent months systematically targeting Russian refineries,
oil depots, and other energy infrastructure. Just last weekend, a Ukrainian drone attack forced
Moscow's major oil refinery to halt crude processing, according to industry sources cited
by Reuters, with repairs expected to take several weeks. For Kiev, these attacks provide one of the
few ways to impose significant costs on Russia and the Russian government. Russia's defense ministry
said Russia's defense ministry said Russia's defense ministry had already put pressure on
Ukraine and the Russian economy by bringing Russia far beyond the front. They forced Moscow
to defend facilities hundreds of miles from Ukraine, disrupt fuel production, and put additional
pressure on an economy already carrying the enormous cost of more than four years of Putin's
war.
But there is a complication here for Zelensky. Trump has been pressing Ukraine to scale back
its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as disruptions to Russian fuel production
add more pressure to already tight global energy markets. Zelensky has indicated that
Russia's defense ministry has been pushing Ukraine to scale back its attacks on Russian
energy infrastructure as disruptions to Russian fuel production add more pressure to already
tight global energy markets. Zelensky has indicated that Russia's defense ministry has been pressing
Ukraine to scale back its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as disruptions to Russian fuel production
add more pressure to already tight global energy markets. Zelensky has indicated that
Ukraine could consider stopping those attacks, but only as part of a reciprocal arrangement
in which Russia stops hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure as well. And so far Moscow,
no surprise, has shown little interest in that kind of pause. That becomes more important
as winter approaches. Ukraine is already preparing for another Russian campaign against its power
grid and heating systems and has been asking Washington for additional Patriot air defense
systems to help protect critical infrastructure.
So, when Trump says he wants Zelensky and Putin to settle, the question is what does
each side believe that it still has to gain before sitting down? Ukraine views its refinery
campaign as leverage. Russia believes that continued drone and missile attacks can increase
pressure on Kyiv and further strain Ukraine's infrastructure, setting up the population
of course for another difficult winter. And Putin has yet to show any inclination to back
off from his long-held maximalist demands.
And that leaves Washington trying to move both governments toward negotiations at the
same time that both governments appear convinced they can still improve their position through
force.
And in today's Back of the Brief, thousands remain missing in Nepal one month after that
catastrophic flooding. More on that when we come back.
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In today's Back of the Brief, I wanted to give an update on the situation in Nepal,
where it's been just over one month since catastrophic floods tore through the Himalayas.
And while the water has receded, the fallout from the disaster continues to unfold. Cardiff's
capital has been in the water for a year and a half, but it's still in the water.
Thousands remain missing, families are still trying to identify the dead, and the country
remains caught between rescue and recovery. That includes more than 5,600 people still
unaccounted for, with some believed to be trapped inside tunnels at six hydropower projects
that were in the flood zone. Thousands of families have lost homes, relatives, and livelihoods,
and Nepal's government says recovery and reconstruction could cost more than $4.7 billion. Now, because
it's been more than a month ago, it's worth taking a moment just to remember how the disaster
unfolded.
On the morning of August 26th, an enormous section of bedrock and glacial ice broke away
high in the Himalayas, sending a massive wall of rock and ice plunging roughly 4,000 feet
into the valley below. The impact was so powerful, it generated seismic energy equal to a magnitude
5.2 earthquake, initially confusing regional sensors. The deadly debris first dammed a river
and created a barrier lake. When that barrier gave way, another surge of deadly water, rock
and debris rushed downstream.
Now one month later, Nepal is still very much in the middle of this disaster. The country
is still trying to determine how many people it actually lost.
The country's disaster management agency says only some 1,450 bodies have been recovered.
Only 112 have been returned to relatives. More than 1,300 others have been temporarily buried, while
authorities try to identify them, and that identification process has now become an international
effort.
At a police hospital near the affected area, relatives are providing DNA samples in tents
set up outside the facility. Those samples are being compared with DNA collected from
recovered remains, with experts from India, China, the U.S., Singapore, and South Korea
helping with the work.
A Nepalese roads engineer told the Associated Press that crews have been working with the
country's Army since the second
day after the floods to reopen access to affected areas. She says bridges are being built to
help move relief supplies into the hardest-hit communities.
But even that work is difficult because of the ongoing monsoon season.
And this is the disaster that Nepal's Prime Minister brought to the United Nations just
last week, using his first address to the General Assembly to call for greater international
assistance and stronger regional cooperation, particularly amid the growing risk of glacial
temperatures and extreme weather.
And that, my friends, is The President's Daily Brief for Monday, the 28th of September. If
you have any questions or comments, please just reach out to me at
[email protected].
thefirsttv.com. And I hope you had a chance to catch this past weekend's PDB Situation Report.
That, of course, is our much-loved extended weekend show. If not, you can always catch it
in past episodes on our YouTube channel. Just wander on over to YouTube, it's that easy,
and search up At President's Daily Brief. Or you can also catch it wherever you get your podcast
stuff. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then,
stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin.