September 25th, 2026: China’s Secret Lifeline to Iran’s War Effort Exposed & Trump-Xi Summit

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They could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Washington's blockade of Iran. Well, it seems like we've heard that story before. I'll have the details. Later in the show, Yemen's government forces claim that they've repelled the latest Houthi offensive, while Saudi Arabia says it intercepted six ballistic missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia. They've also said that the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. and the U.S. including an important Red Sea port. Plus, more suspected Russian sabotage in Europe. This time, after Poland says a fire at a Starlink station supporting Ukraine's military was deliberately set. And in today's back of the brief, the Pentagon is trying to recover F-35 fighter jet parts that were accidentally diverted to Hong Kong and seized by Chinese authorities. Ah, has anyone seen my F-35 parts? I ordered them. Like a week ago. All right. First, today's afternoon spotlight. After nearly seven months of war, the U.S. and Iran may finally be discussing a deal that could begin bringing the conflict to an end. Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington would lift its blockade of Iranian ports. According to Reuters, negotiators in New York are exploring a phased arrangement built around those two pressure points. Iran would allow commercial shipping to move through Hormuz again, while the U.S. would begin easing the blockade that has choked off Iranian oil exports and put severe pressure on the regime's economy. Of course, the talks are still preliminary. And of course, we've seen plenty of false starts in supposed negotiations over the past several months. Now, the biggest complication is that the same leverage that brought both sides back to the table or close to the table is also what neither side wants to give up first. For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is a big deal. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of its most powerful weapons. Closing the waterway has allowed Tehran to put pressure not just on the U.S., but on global oil markets and America's allies in the Gulf. For Washington, the blockade of Iranian ports has become its strongest economic weapon against Iran. We've spent weeks documenting what that pressure has done. Iranian oil exports have been squeezed. Overland alternatives have run into bottlenecks. And Washington has continued, adding sanctions aimed at cutting Tehran off, from additional sources of revenue and trade. Now, for the first time, those two pieces are reportedly being discussed together as part of a potential deal. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that one possible first step would be relatively straightforward. Reopen Hormuz, lift the blockade, and potentially give Iran access to some of its frozen assets. After that, the two sides could move on, theoretically, to harder issues in later stages. Now, that's the theory. So, the U.S. gets the Strait back to what it was prior to the conflict, while the Iranian regime remains firmly in control, gets economic relief, and potential access to its frozen assets. I'm sure there's a win in there somewhere for the U.S. administration, but it's a bit hard to see. Tehran had been pushing for ships using the Strait of Hormuz to pay transit fees, something the Gulf states rejected. Now, according to regional sources cited by Reuters, Iran, may be willing to move that demand out of the main agreement and into a side arrangement instead, because getting the blockade lifted appears to have become the more urgent priority. That does not mean that Tehran is giving up its broader claims over the Strait. Iran still wants to preserve what it describes as administrative control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Gulf states remain strongly opposed, of course, to any arrangement that would allow the regime to turn the waterway into a permanent instrument of pressure. But the fact that Iran may be willing to possibly defer one of its demands is in itself notable. It suggests that, at least in part, perhaps, the economic pressure is beginning to shape the negotiations. Or, conversely, Iran believes that they have dragged this conflict out long enough that they can now extract some concessions from the U.S. The regime still appears to believe that it's negotiating for a position of strength, despite the undeniable pressure that its economy is under. The White House, as it has on numerous occasions, is saying that Iran is desperate for a deal, that President Trump holds the stronger hand, and that the blockade has helped drive the Iranian economy toward collapse. That is the administration's assessment. Again, the Iranian regime believes that it's the other way around, that the Trump administration is keen for a deal to get this conflict resolved and off the radar ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. Former U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross told Reuters that, both sides may actually have more incentive to make progress before the election. For Trump, reopening Hormuz could help contain politically sensitive gasoline prices and reduce uncertainty in the Middle East. For Iran, the calculation may be that Trump has more incentive to make a deal now than he might after the election. After the midterms, of course, depending on the outcome, that could change. Trump may feel less political pressure to compromise and more freedom to increase sanctions or resume military action. So, the election may not be a deadline for an agreement, but it could be a deadline for the current balance of incentives. Then, of course, there's the caveat that if the Republicans do not do well in the midterm elections and Trump loses the House and possibly the Senate, eh, that could be exactly what the Iranian regime is calculating. Now, despite the diplomacy, Tehran is making clear that it's preparing for the possibility that talks fail. One senior Iranian official told Reuters, and said the chances of diplomacy succeeding remain very low if Washington maintains what Tehran considers excessive demands. Now, just to clarify, you probably shouldn't put more than one finger on the trigger. That's just a safety message to the Iranian regime. Meanwhile, the Gulf states are caught in the middle. They want the Strait of Hormuz reopened and the fighting brought under control, but they also reject the idea that Iran should gain lasting control over who can move through the strait. That leaves negotiators with a, fairly simple problem to describe and a very difficult one to solve. Iran doesn't want to reopen Hormuz until it gets meaningful economic relief. Washington does not want to lift the blockade until it knows that commercial shipping will remain safe. And neither side, of course, wants to surrender its strongest bargaining chip first. All right, coming up next, Yemen's government says it repelled another Houthi offensive and Poland investigates suspected sabotage at a Starlink station that's supporting Ukraine. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, if you're like me, you appreciate products that are easy to work into everyday life, right, into your daily routine. And that's why you'll love to hear about iRestore. The iRestore Elite combines 300 lasers with 200 LEDs to support thicker, healthier-looking hair. And it's very simple to use. You can wear it while working, watching TV, or relaxing, so it doesn't require a major time commitment. And the Illumina Face Mask by iRestore is designed to make skin care just as convenient. It's lightweight, it's cordless, takes only 10 minutes a few times a week. iRestore is offering some huge discounts on their red light therapy devices. 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It's not just the Houthis who are fighting against the Houthis, but the Houthis who are fighting against the Houthis who are fighting against the Houthis who are fighting against the Houthis who are fighting against the Houthis who are fighting against the Houthis. The road is a lifeline for government forces and civilians in Taiz. carrying supplies north from Aden, and providing one of the few remaining routes out of the area. So, if the Houthis were able to seize portions of that road, well, they could further tighten their grip around Taiz and put additional pressure on Yemen's internationally recognized government, which, of course, has struggled to regain its footing since losing the western coast. Now, we should note that the details are coming from the Saudi-backed side, and Reuters has not independently verified the battlefield claims. But if they hold, it would represent one of the first meaningful setbacks for the Houthis since their rapid advance along the Red Sea coast nearly two weeks ago. And while that fighting was unfolding inside Yemen, the Houthis were also launching another round of attacks against Saudi Arabia. The Saudi-led coalition says air defenses intercepted six ballistic missiles on Thursday aimed toward the southern province of Taif and the Yanbu area on the Red Sea. At this point, there are no confirmed reports of casualties or significant damage. But the target around Yanbu is particularly important. Yanbu is home to major Saudi oil infrastructure and serves as one of the kingdom's most important alternatives for exporting crude when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Saudi Arabia has been working to increase the amount of oil moving west through its east-west pipeline toward Yanbu. That pipeline was shut down earlier this month following drone attacks that Riyadh blamed on an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia. So, just as Saudi Arabia prepared to be a target for a new war, the Houthis have been working to increase the amount of oil moving west through its east-west pipeline toward Yanbu. And there was another interesting development during that attack. Greek security officials told Reuters that a Patriot air defense battery operated by Greek military personnel in Saudi Arabia shot down a ballistic missile and a drone in the wider Yanbu region. Greece has had that U.S.-made Patriot battery deployed in Saudi Arabia since 2021 to help protect the kingdom's energy infrastructure. This was reportedly the fifth time that the Greek-operated system has been used in combat since the U.S.-Iran war began back in February, another example of how this conflict has steadily pulled America's allies into the defense of Gulf infrastructure. Saudi civil defense officials also issued warnings covering a wide area including Jeddah, Mecca, Taif, and Yanbu. Authorities issued a warning for Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia, something Reuters notes had not happened previously during this latest escalation. The Houthis, meanwhile, claimed a separate attack farther south against military sites in Jizan province, saying they used dozens of ballistic missiles and drones against command centers, weapons depots, and missile launch sites. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed that attack. So, inside Yemen, government forces are trying to stop the Houthis from turning their rapid coastal gains into an even broader offensive. And across the border, the Houthis are continuing to attack the Houthis. They're continuing to use missiles and drones to pressure Saudi Arabia directly, particularly the infrastructure that Riyadh needs to keep oil moving while the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat. Turning to Europe, and specifically Russia's hybrid campaign against Europe, a Polish government minister says someone set fire to a Starlink station in an attempt to disrupt internet access used by Ukraine, including its military. The fire broke out Wednesday evening at the station in central Poland, and the Polish government said that the station was under attack and that it was about to explode. And the Polish deputy prime minister says the flames engulfed both the power system and backup generator. While it's not conclusive, the deputy prime minister says, quote, many signs suggest this aligns with Russia's new doctrine of attack, end quote, but authorities have not publicly presented evidence tying Moscow to this particular attack. He's much firmer about what he believes the person responsible wanted to accomplish. He called it sabotage, saying the fire was, quote, deliberately designed to disable the station, effectively cutting off the station. And he said, quote, the fire was deliberately designed to disable the station, effectively cutting off the station. And he said, quote, the fire was deliberately designed to disable the station, effectively cutting off the station, effectively cutting off the internet connection and disrupting internet access for various institutions, including the Ukrainian military, end quote. Now the station is back online, although Ukraine has not publicly said whether it lost service while the facility was down. Echoing warnings from Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, the deputy prime minister referred to it as, quote, an element of hybrid warfare. This apparent sabotage does matter a great deal given just how much Ukraine has come to rely on Starlink. Now, the Russian intelligence agency has been watching for threats like this for years. Since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Poland and other European governments have investigated fires, cyber attacks, and attempted sabotage, with Western officials attributing some of those incidents to Russian intelligence or its proxies. Russia has repeatedly denied a carrying out sabotage inside NATO countries, which, of course, is a shocking surprise. This is why officials keep referring to Russia's hybrid warfare. An operation can damage infrastructure or interfere with aid to Ukraine without looking like an open military attack. And the uncertainty over who carried it out makes a response much harder to agree on. You may remember our coverage of Germany blaming Russia for an attempted drone attack at Leipzig-Halle airport, while European Union members called for new sanctions against Russia. airport, while European Union members called for new sanctions in response to that incident. And then on Thursday, Denmark's military intelligence service warned that Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid campaign against NATO and the West in the coming months. It expects more frequent attacks with, quote, greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past, end quote. The Danish assessment says Russia has increasingly moved beyond trying to frighten Europeans or weaken public support for Ukraine. It's also trying to stop that support from reaching Kyiv, including through sabotage, targeting defense companies and railway transport. Denmark also raised a separate possibility that goes beyond sabotage. Its intelligence service sees, quote, a low but growing risk that Russia could launch a limited military attack against one or more NATO countries bordering Russia, potentially in the coming months. It calls such an attack a desperate move. And with that in mind, you ask, what might such an attack look like? Well, Denmark's intelligence chief described isolated drone or missile strikes against infrastructure supporting Ukraine. Russia might then claim a weapon landed in NATO territory by accident or stage a false flag attack with Ukrainian-made drones to make Kyiv appear responsible. Danish intelligence also raised the possibility of sending a small number of troops into a NATO border area, potentially under the pretext of protecting Russian minorities. As you can imagine, the Russian embassy in Denmark rejects the assessment, saying there's no credible evidence behind the accusations and accusing Western governments of driving up tensions over Ukraine, which, of course, Russia invaded, thereby driving up tensions. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, F-35 parts meant for the U.S. took an unexpected detour to Hong Kong and are now in Chinese hands. Excuse me, we'd like our F-35 parts back. More on that when we come back. 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See their website for important safety information, and I want to thank Maude for sponsoring the PDB. Maude Yardley. Must be 18 plus, no purchase necessary, void where prohibited, restrictions applied. Play responsibly. See GetFlip.com for eligibility terms and promotion rules. In today's back of the brief, I want to talk about an embarrassing security problem involving one of America's most advanced fighter jets. The Pentagon is trying to recover parts from an F-35 that somehow wound up in the hands of the Chinese government back in May. And four months later, no government body in the U.S. or abroad has publicly explained how they got there. And most importantly, China still hasn't returned them. Well, they're probably still trying to calculate the postage. The parts came from an Australian military F-35. American shipping giant UPS was taking them back to the U.S. in late May, where they were supposed to be inspected and either repaired or disposed of. Obviously, this wasn't your average package. It gets lost in the mail. Inside were a cockpit canopy and a weapons bay door from an F-35. Now, it's even more than just highly sensitive components there. People briefed on the incident told Bloomberg that both are coated with material that helps keep the F-35 off of enemy radar. So picture the route. The shipment leaves Australia, stops in South Korea, and should be on its way to the U.S. Instead, it turns up in Hong Kong. And we still don't know why. Was someone deliberately steering it there, or was this just a colossal shipping mistake? Neither the Pentagon nor Australian defense officials have answered that publicly. There's also no reported evidence that China arranged the diversion. But Beijing didn't have to arrange it to benefit from what happened. Chinese authorities took possession of the parts, and months later, they're still there. Now, I want to point out that Lockheed Martin calls the parts unserviceable and says they pose a low risk of exploitation. Now, that may be their assessment, but it still doesn't excuse this as a routine shipping problem. The F-35 Joint Program Office says it is, quote, actively working with U.S. authorities and industry partners to retrieve those components, end quote. It's also investigating the incident and looking at safeguards to prevent it from happening again. Well, that's not a bad idea. Australia is also examining what happened on its end. Chinese President Xi Jinping is currently in Washington for meetings with President Trump. Maybe he knows how it all came about. There's no indication, though, that the missing F-35 components will be on the agenda for the summit. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, the 24th of September. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me at pdb at the first tv dot com. And finally, it being Friday and all, a brand new episode of the PDB's Daily Brief is coming to you on Friday, the 24th of September. And finally, it being Friday and all, a brand new episode of the PDB's Situation Report is set to beam into your homes at 10 p.m. this evening on the first tv. Terrific guests, great analysis of key world developments, and no empty calories. You can also catch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel. Just wander on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief, and of course on podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay in touch. informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.