September 16th, 2026: Ukraine Launches a New Ground Offensive Against Russia & NATO Faces New Baltic Tensions

It's Wednesday, the 16th of September. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Ukraine is back on offense in northern Donetsk, launching a new push in one of the most heavily contested areas of Ukraine. I'll have the details. Later in the show, the U.S. is urging Syria to consider sending forces into Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah. But Damascus, here's no surprise, is warning that the move could pull it directly into the war. Plus, NATO fighter jets shoot down a Russian drone over Lithuania, or at least it's a suspected Russian drone, while a Russian warship, fires flares near a Danish military helicopter in another tense encounter in the Baltic. And in today's back of the brief, President Trump rejects calls for new restrictions on artificial intelligence, arguing that a high-IQ president is the only guardrail needed. And I am not making that up. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. In a conflict that has been largely defined by static lines and grinding, costly incremental gains, Ukraine says it's going back on offense in one of the most important sections of the Donbass. The operation is called Vivaldi, and it's unfolding in northern Donetsk, around the approaches to Liman, where Ukrainian forces say they've spent weeks quietly pushing back Russian troops and dismantling positions that Moscow had hoped to use for a larger advance. According to Ukraine's Third Army Corps, its forces have cleared roughly 75 square kilometers that had been infiltrated by Russian troops and retaken another. Ukrainian commanders also say they've pushed Russian forces out of several communities and disrupted some of the logistics supporting Moscow's operations in the area. Now, those are Ukrainian battlefield claims, and Reuters says it has not been able to independently verify the full extent of those gains. But outside assessments do support the broader picture, that Ukraine has managed to dislodge some Russian positions in this sector. Liman sits northeast of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, two cities that form the heart of Ukraine's remaining defensive belt in Donetsk. For months, Russian forces have been trying to improve their positions around that belt from several directions. One of those approaches came from the north, where Moscow had been building out a position near Liman that could eventually help put additional pressure on the region. Ukraine now says Operation Vivaldi has largely pushed that threat back. The Institute for the Study of War has assessed that Ukrainian forces have substantially reduced the Russian presence north of Liman, complicating Moscow's efforts to use that area as one part of a broader attempt to squeeze Ukraine's defensive positions from multiple directions. So, this is not really a story about Ukraine capturing a few more villages or several square miles of ground. This is about Ukrainian forces disrupting one of Russia's planned routes toward a much bigger objective. Frontlines across eastern Ukraine have often remained static. Russia can spend weeks or months fighting for a handful of villages, while both sides pour troops and drones and artillery into a relatively small area. Even a localized counteroffensive can force the other side to move troops, rebuild defensive positions, or rethink an axis of advance that it had spent months preparing. There's also a broader battlefield context here. For much of the past several years, the basic pattern in eastern Ukraine has been Russia pushing forward while Ukrainian forces try to slow the advance. Those Russian gains have often been small and costly, but Moscow has generally held the initiative across much of the eastern front. Operation Vivaldi is an example of Ukraine trying to reverse that dynamic, at least in one sector. There are some important caveats. This is not a major Ukrainian breakthrough, and it does not mean the broader battle for Donetsk has suddenly turned in Kiev's favor. Russian forces continue applying heavy pressure elsewhere in the region, including further south. For now, this looks like a localized but potentially significant Ukrainian counteroffensive rather than the start of some sweeping reversal. And the name Vivaldi may offer a hint about what Kiev intends to do next. Ukrainian commanders say the operation was named after the Italian composer Antonio Vivaldi, best known for his composition The Four Seasons. The commander overseeing the operation has suggested that what we're seeing now is only the first season. All right, coming up next, the U.S. pushes Syria to help disarm Hezbollah, and NATO faces additional encounters with Russia in the Baltic region. I'll be right back. 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In an exclusive report from Reuters, five people briefed on discussions between American and Syrian officials say Washington encouraged Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah. As for those discussions, they began last year, reportedly, and were raised again around the beginning of the war against Iran in February of this year. They've taken on more urgency, at least from a U.S. perspective, since the 2nd of March, when Hezbollah lobbed missiles and attack drones at Israel in support of Tehran, prompting the ongoing IDF offensive in Lebanon. And according to Reuters, Washington has gone considerably further than simply asking Syria to think about it. Two Western diplomats who requested anonymity to discuss the details confirmed Washington approved the idea. One senior Syrian official backed that claim up, saying the U.S. has given Damascus the green light to act when the time is right. The official says Washington has asked Syria's military to take a more active role against Hezbollah, potentially including an incursion into eastern Lebanon. Now, I do want to point out that U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, is denying the report, calling the reporting, quote, false and inaccurate. Reuters, though, says it spoke with 10 Syrian and Syrian officials and sources, all of whom described Damascus as cautiously considering the idea, but deeply hesitant to actually go through with it. And you can understand why Damascus is hesitant. During Syria's civil war, Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters into the country to fight with Assad's forces against the rebellion trying to overthrow his regime. That rebellion, of course, is now the new Syrian government. Iran had backed Assad for years, meaning Tehran and Hezbollah spent years fighting many of the forces associated with the rebellion that eventually brought Assad down. Now, the country's new president, Ahmed al-Sharam, has already backed Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's effort to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah, of course, has shown no interest in giving up its arms. And as we've discussed here on the PDB, the Lebanese government has never been able to control Hezbollah. Sending Syrian troops into Lebanon to confront one of Iran's most important regional proxies is, well, one could argue, adding fuel to a very combustible situation. Especially when Syria has only recently emerged from more than a decade of civil war, and Damascus has agreed with its Arab allies that it should stay out of this one. One senior Syrian official says there is also a very real concern about what Iran could do in response. Damascus fears that the Iranian regime could retaliate with missile attacks if Syrian troops enter Lebanon. There's also, of course, the danger of a war. Syria's government is Sunni-led, while Hezbollah is a Shiite organization with considerable support among Lebanon's Shiite population. Damascus' fears and intervention could inflame those divisions on both sides of the border. And then, well, as if we needed another reason to rethink this concept, there's Syria's history in Lebanon. Syrian troops entered the country during its civil war in 1976 and remained there for nearly three decades, dominating much of Lebanon's post-war politics until withdrawing in 2005. Okay, shifting back to the war in Ukraine, NATO has gone from scrambling fighter jets over drone threats near its eastern front to actually shooting one down. The confrontation played out overnight into Tuesday over Lithuania, where an explosive-carrying drone entered the country's airspace and became the first ever shot down there. The aircraft reportedly remained inside Lithuanian airspace for roughly 30 minutes before being brought down. The head of the military, Nikolai Kuznetsov, said, of Lithuania's National Crisis Management Center, says the drone most likely crossed in from neighboring Belarus before flying along the outskirts of populated areas. Eventually, NATO fighters brought it down near a village that sits roughly 60 miles west of the capital, Vilnius. Once Lithuanian bomb disposal teams reached the wreckage, they discovered that there was an explosive device on board, which they had then neutralized. At this stage, Lithuania still doesn't know where the drone came from, or its intended target. But an investigation, of course, is underway. Here's why the timing of this latest incident is getting so much attention. As we've been following here on the PDB, Russia just carried out its largest drone barrage against Ukraine in months, bringing Moscow's attacks dangerously close to NATO territory. One Russian drone struck an evacuated train barely more than a mile from Poland. Another hit a separate crossing, prompting Poland to scramble fighter jets and put its air defenses on hold. The drone was then launched into the airspace of Lithuania. And that's not the only confrontation unfolding around NATO territory. While NATO was dealing with that drone over Lithuania, Denmark was confronting a Russian warship in the Baltic Sea. Oh, 2026 is really shaping up, isn't it? One of its Air Force helicopters was carrying out routine surveillance of a Russian frigate in waters off a Danish port when, according to Denmark's military, the Russian ship fired two flares toward the helicopter. One of them passed close to the aircraft. Now, these weren't missiles, but firing them toward a military helicopter is something that Denmark says crossed the line. Its foreign ministry called the incident, quote, completely unacceptable and summoned the Russian ambassador. Well, that should do it. Moscow, unsurprisingly, tells a very different story. Russia's ambassador says it was the Danish helicopter conducting dangerous and provocative maneuvers around the Russian warship because, you know, the Danish helicopter crews are known for their provocative maneuvers. The Kremlin isn't offering much in the way of clarity, and spokesman Dmitry Peskov, perhaps you've heard of him, declined to comment, saying he didn't have details about what happened. Germany, Poland, Denmark, the United Kingdom, and other countries have accused Russia in recent weeks of involvement in drone incursions, sabotage, arson, and surveillance of military facilities. Moscow has denied many of those allegations, not all, but many. To be fair, Lithuania is no stranger to these kinds of security scares. The NATO member sits between Belarus and Lithuania, and the NATO member sits between Belarus and Lithuania. The NATO member shares a border with Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad enclave. Unidentified aircraft have repeatedly approached or entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus. In May, drone activity near that border became serious enough that residents of Vilnius were told to shelter in place, while Lithuania's president and prime minister were temporarily moved to secure locations. Putin's war remains concentrated inside Ukraine, of course, but along NATO's eastern front the distance, it seems, between Russia's war and NATO territory is shrinking. Alright, coming up in the back of the brief. Some of the biggest names in artificial intelligence are calling for new safeguards, but President Trump, he says the technology already has all the oversight it needs. Now, there you go. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a solid tip on how to take control of your health. Look, does this sound familiar? 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Disclaimer, ExciteOSA is an FDA-cleared prescription-only device for primary snoring and mild obstructive sleep apnea. It's not for everyone. Individual results may vary. Check out the risks and benefits at springsleep.com. In today's back of the brief, President Trump says artificial intelligence doesn't need any new government guardrails. In his view, it already has the most important one. That would be a strong, high-IQ president. Those were his words. Trump weighed in Monday as some of the biggest names in artificial intelligence are calling for greater caution over how quickly the technology is advancing. Now, in a series of posts, the president said, quote, the only control or guardrails that AI needs is a strong and smart, and then he put in parentheses, high-IQ, president. He spelled that in all caps, so you know he was serious. Adding that the federal government already has enough criminal and regulatory authority to deal with companies that step out of line. Trump also dismissed some of the more dire warnings about artificial intelligence as a hoax, arguing that additional restrictions would only make it easier for China to overtake the U.S. in the global AI race. The comments came as several prominent figures inside the industry are sounding increasingly concerned. The Anthropic CEO has called for independent audits of the most advanced AI systems, while Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have said they're not going to be able to do that. Trump has also backed calls to slow the pace of development. The concerns range from widespread job losses to AI being used for cyber attacks, biological weapons, or autonomous warfare. Now, Trump is not alone in worrying about what tighter restrictions could mean for America's competition with Beijing. U.S. Congress House Speaker Mike Johnson said Tuesday that he opposes a moratorium on AI development because, well, it could hand China a major competitive advantage. Though he has expressed support for measures like independent audits and greater transparency from AI companies. Interestingly, China is wrestling in a way with many of the same questions. Beijing is developing new safety standards aimed at keeping increasingly autonomous AI systems under human control, well, as long as those humans are approved by the Chinese Communist Party, while still pushing aggressively to expand the technology across its economy. So, despite Trump's confidence that it needs that tool being a smart, strong, high-IQ president, the debate isn't going away. The people building the technology increasingly say some new safeguards are necessary. Trump's argument is that America shouldn't self-regulate itself out of the race. I suppose, actually, we could just ask ChatGPT what it thinks. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, the 16th of September. If you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, just reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And finally, if you're jonesing for an ad-free PDB experience, just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.