It's Tuesday, the 15th of September. Oh, look at that. We are officially halfway through the month. Is it, uh, is it time to start humming holiday tunes yet? Well, soon. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting says Iranian hardliners who deliberately sabotaged a peace deal with Washington by attacking ships in the straight of Hormuz, exposing an ongoing power struggle inside the regime over, well, who's actually in charge. Later in the show, China's top spy chief is wanting that artificial intelligence could become a direct threat to Communist Party rule as Beijing confronts the political risks of increasingly powerful AI. Plus, NATO is responding after Russian drone attacks near Poland, including a strike that hit a rail station shortly after a group of senior foreign officials had passed through. And in today's back of the brief, a former CIA officer and caught with hundreds of gold bars stashed at his home and millions and cash is now negotiating a plea deal with federal prosecutors. But first, today's PDB spotlight, Iran's war with the US may be influenced in part by a war within the regime over who's actually calling the shots. New reporting from the New York Times says hardline figures are there any other kind within Iran's security establishment deliberately undermined a memorandum of understanding or a temporary ceasefire or whatever we decided to call it back then reached with Washington in July by orchestrating attacks on commercial ships in the state of Hormuz. And according to Iranian officials who spoke to the Times, President Masood Psezhkin didn't know the attack was coming. Neither apparently did some of Iran's most senior military officials. The episode unfolded in early July. Psezhkin was enaboring Iraq, attending funeral ceremonies for Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. At the time, according to the reporting, Psezhkin had reason to be optimistic. Iran and the US had just negotiated an agreement aimed at ending the fighting. Then, Iranian forces suddenly opened fire on three commercial ships in the state of Hormuz. A Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker was set ablaze, other vessels were damaged, and whatever momentum existed toward ending the war disappeared almost immediately. According to the Times, Psezhkin was furious. He called General Ahmad Vahidi, the commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, sending IRGC, demanding to know what had happened. Vahidi reportedly, anyway, told him that he had not authorized the attack. And more surprisingly, again, according to Vahidi, he hadn't known about it beforehand. Iran's Supreme National Security Council, which, supposedly, plays a central role in both the war and negotiations with Washington, was also reportedly unaware. Psezhkin returned to Tehran, and by the following morning, the US had responded with their strikes, and the two countries were back at war. What followed inside Iran, according to officials interviewed by the Times, anyway, was one of the most serious confrontations among the country's leadership in years. There were shouting matches, two senior generals reportedly threatened to resign, and officials accused one another of betrayal and treason. An internal investigation eventually pointed toward one of the most powerful figures in Iran's security establishment, Hussein Taib. Taib is a cleric and long-time intelligence operative, who spent more than two decades leading intelligence operations for the Revolutionary Guard, again, the IRGC. He was removed from that position in 2022, following a series of embarrassing security failures, including Israeli penetration of Iranian networks. But after Ali Khamenei was killed to have returned to prominence, Iranian officials say he played an important role in helping Khamenei's son, Mushtaba, wherever he may be, become the new Supreme Leader. Taib also strongly opposed the ceasefire agreement or memorandum of understanding with Washington. According to three Iranian officials cited by the Times, government and security inquiries traced the decision to attack those commercial ships back to Taib. One former Iranian official described the objective very plainly, "Destroy the agreement with President Trump and make another round of negotiations far more difficult." When Posseshkin demanded answers, he was reportedly told that commanders in the field had acted understanding orders, allowing them to attack ships that they believe violated Iran's control of the Strait of Khomuz without first seeking approval from Tehran. But the internal dispute exposed a much bigger problem for the regime. Normally, Iran's Supreme Leader would settle a fight like this, except as we know, Iran's new Supreme Leader is nowhere to be seen. Mushtaba Khomenei has not appeared publicly since taking the position and his voice has not been heard publicly. Even members of his own family have said they have little or no contact with him because supposedly of extraordinary security measures. According to the Times, some Iranian officials, including Posseshkin, have also questioned whether statements attributed to Khomenei are actually coming from him. One reported encounter is particularly strange. Earlier this year, Posseshkin said he had met with the Supreme Leader, but officials familiar with the meeting told the Times that Posseshkin was driven around in an ambulance with blacked out windows while a secure video connection was established, and then a man appeared on the screen, claiming to relay messages between the President and Khomenei. Posseshkin reportedly later told an ally that he wasn't certain that he had actually been communicating with the Supreme Leader at all, you think? And without someone reliable at the top of the chain of command, well, Iran's leadership is now divided over what comes next. One faction wants to return to negotiations, supposedly. Iran's economy is deteriorating. Its currency is falling, inflation is soaring, and a U.S. naval blockade has crippled trade and reduced Iranian oil exports to virtually nothing. Posseshkin and other officials argue that continued escalation could push the country even deeper into crisis, and of course, what they're really worried about potentially lead to massive civil unrest. But hard-line commanders are pushing in the opposite direction. According to the Times, they've developed a broader war plan, built around increasing the cost of the conflict for the U.S. and its allies. That includes attacking American naval vessels, potentially killing U.S. troops, activating Iran-backed militias in Iraq, expanding Houthi attacks from Yemen, striking regional oil infrastructure, and driving global energy prices higher. And if you've been following our reporting here on the PDB, that is exactly the direction that the conflict has been heading. We've been covering Iranian attacks on American vessels, strikes launched from Iraq against Saudi energy infrastructure, the Houthis expanding their territorial offensive while launching missiles and drones towards Saudi Arabia. According to the Times, those developments are unfolding as the faction advocating greater escalation gains influence inside the regime. Iran is fighting the U.S. while its own leadership is, supposedly, fighting each other. Its president reportedly supported a ceasefire agreement, powerful security figures allegedly worked to destroy it. And the Supreme Leader, who's supposed to settle internal regime disputes, he's still the invisible man. Alright, coming up next, Iran-backed Houthis sees a strategic Red Sea Island, and a Russian drone strikes a train near the Polish border on a route used by foreign leaders. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Now, one of the most frustrating things about owning a home is that, "Mate your repairs never happen at a convenient time, right? Your water heater quits an electrical issue pops up or your AC goes down during the hottest week of the summer, right? It's never during the winter. 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Now China's top spy chief is warning that artificial intelligence could create an entirely new threat. China's Minister of State Security, Chen Yishin, is warning that capabilities already emerging from AI could eventually be turned against the CCP. In a new article published in the state-run magazine China's cyberspace, Chen lays out the most comprehensive warning yet from China's powerful security apparatus about the risks posed by artificial intelligence. But unlike much of the AI debate that we've heard in the US and elsewhere across the West, Chen isn't focused on some uncertain future.
culture, where increasingly powerful systems escape human control. He's worried about what people can already do with AI, and of course, he's worried about the CCP losing its grip on power. His first concern tells us quite a bit about embaging's priorities, and that is of course protecting the Communist Party. Gen One's that people with what he calls "alterior motives" could use AI to generate fake videos and audio to wage a "propaganda war" against China. Some of you see versions of this on social media every day, with AI-generated videos making celebrities or other public figures appear to say or do things that never happen. Now apply that to China's tightly controlled political system. A fabricated announcement from Chinese President Xi Jinping, for example, if convincing enough and spread quickly enough could create confusion, even military or political instability, before Beijing contains it. But here's where Gen's warning becomes particularly revealing. Beijing is presenting the CCP as the potential victim of AI-enabled propaganda, surveillance and intelligence operations. China's own security apparatus, however, is already trying to harness some of those same capabilities. Like, says China-based actors, linked to public and state security organs, have used "clawed" to monitor political sentiment, track, dissidents and activists and support what Beijing calls "stability maintenance." So that's a good one. Stability maintenance, how very mal of them. So Beijing is an objecting to the power that AI gives an intelligence service to monitor people or collect information. It's worried about what happens when that power belongs to somebody else, which of course is always the fear of a communist regime or dictators. That fear extends directly into cybersecurity. Chen warns that AI is lowering the technical and financial barriers to sophisticated cyberattacks. He specifically points to American AI models, including Claude Mithoson, GPT 5.5 cyberists, emerging cyber security threats, and warns that foreign intelligence services could use AI for, quote, "large scale espionage." And if anybody knows large scale espionage, it's China's minister of state security. Now sensitive information doesn't necessarily have to be stolen. Anthropic says the Chinese AI company moonshot routed some user queries through Claude, including queries containing surveillance material linked to the Chinese military and proprietary information belonging to major Chinese technology companies. In other words, Chinese users themselves could put sensitive information into an American AI system. And then there's the military dimension. Chen in the state media article says AI is, quote, "fundamentally changing warfare, pointing to the American military's use of the technology during the U.S. war with Iran." He argues that military is capable of using algorithms for more precise sensing and targeting will gain quote the initiative on the battlefield. And that is the dilemma for Beijing. China can't simply clamp down on AI because Xi Jinping's government considers it essential to competing economically and militarily with the U.S. Beijing wants more powerful AI. It just doesn't want that power in the hands of anyone except the Communist Party. The timing here is interesting because American and Chinese officials are expected to discuss AI safety ahead of President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in Washington on the 24th of September. Okay. Turning now to the war in Ukraine, where NATO is promising more support for Kiev after a Russian drone barrage came within a mile of Polish territory. NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta says the strikes near Poland show Russia is becoming increasingly reckless, and that rather than frightening Ukraine's allies into backing away, they're having the opposite effect. As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, one of those drones struck a train near the Yohoden border crossing along a railway corridor, often used by foreign officials traveling between Ukraine and Poland. Ruta called the attacks a sign of Russian President Putin's "despiration" and his desire to so fear and terror when it comes to the alliance's eastern front. And he had a clear message for Putin, quote, "He thinks that he can stop us from supporting Ukraine and that he can undermine our unity. He is wrong," end quote. Ruta says NATO will instead increase support for Ukraine and strengthen its eastern defenses. And we're now learning that another prominent western figure was caught up in that attack on a separate train. Former CIA Director and retired Army General David Petraeus was aboard a civilian train at Yohoden when he heard Russian drones roaring overhead. According to the New York Times, Petraeus and the other passengers were quickly evacuated. Not long afterward, he heard a massive explosion as a jet-powered Russian drone struck the locomotive of another train sitting next to his. Petraeus called it the act of a, quote, "truly barbaric leader" trying to terrorize Ukrainian civilians. Now as I previously discussed, a separate diplomatic train carrying former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former Swedish Prime Minister Karl Bilt and officials from several NATO and European Union countries had already passed through the area and crossed into Poland. Ukraine's state railway says Johnson's train could have been the intended target because it left earlier than scheduled, although there is no evidence Russia deliberately targeted those officials. Poland is now warning that Russia could intensify attacks along Ukraine's European borders. Officials say intelligence, including a CIA briefing last week, indicated that Moscow could begin targeting border points and stepping up sabotage inside Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Poland cannot rule out escalation, reaching its own territory either directly or indirectly. When asked specifically about the train strike, well, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Paskov, you remember him, told reporters that Russian forces are operating across Ukraine and, quote, "will continue to do so." Meanwhile President Trump, well, he's sending a very different kind of message to Kiev and it concerns one of Ukraine's most effective campaigns against Putin and Putin's wartime economy. Trump is urging Ukrainian President Zelensky to, quote, "stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia." Trump argues that those attacks are what's contributing to the global diesel shortage. Well, to be fair, the shortages and increased prices might also have something to do with the general instability and confusion surrounding the state of Hormuz and the U.S. conflict with Iran. Diesel prices in the U.S. climbed above $6 a gallon on average last week for the first time ever. Now, as we've been tracking here on the PDB, Ukraine targets those refineries because Russia's oil industry is what feeds Putin's war machine. The strikes everyduced refining capacity contributed to Russian fuel shortages and helped force Moscow to restrict diesel exports. Kiev's strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure have done more to bring Putin's war home to the Russian people than any other Ukrainian military effort. In making the Russian population directly feel the effects of Putin's invasion, increasing their dissatisfaction with Putin's choices, but that may be the most effective way to actually bring about an end to the conflict. Moscow, unsurprisingly, welcomed Trump's message, with Peskov saying any call for Kiev to stop attacking its infrastructure, quote, "can only be welcomed." Coming up in the back of the brief, in the case of the CIA officer and the gold bars, cash, and luxury watches stash, to be fair, who doesn't have hundreds of gold bars just safely stored at home? I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you have heard me talk about brunt workboots and brunt workwear before, because the quality and the fit and the durability, well, is amazing. But maybe the most amazing thing about brunt, is the ability to wear their workboots to work before deciding whether to keep them. Seriously, you wear them on the chomp site, and if they aren't the right fit, you just send them back for a full refund. Come on. Founder Eric Gerardon grew up blue collar, and he started brunt because, well, because the big brands had stopped listening to the trades. 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[email protected]. And if you find yourself thinking I wonder what an ad-free PDB sounds like, well, we have got you covered. Just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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