September 10th, 2026: Iran Hardens Pickaxe Mountain & Netanyahu Faces October 7 Warning Report

It's Thursday, the 10th of September. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, remember Iran's nuclear program? Well, it kind of got pushed off the radar as the focus has been on the battle over control for the Strait of Hormuz. Now it's back on the radar. Iran is reportedly accelerating work at a deeply buried nuclear site near Natanz, as the U.S. military considers how to destroy it. I'll have the details. Later in the show, a new report claims that the UAE warned Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu days before October 7th, 2023. That Hamas was preparing a major attack. It's a report that Netanyahu's office denies. Plus, North Korea has built another uranium enrichment facility as inspectors warn that Kim Jong-un is continuing to expand his nuclear weapons infrastructure. And in today's back of the brief, the U.S. military takes out what officials describe as a cartel-linked floating gas station used to keep drug-running boats at sea. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Iran appears to be accelerating work at Pickaxe Mountain, the deeply buried nuclear complex near Natanz that U.S. officials have openly discussed targeting. And new satellite imagery suggests the activity there is now more intense than at any point since construction began. According to a new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran has dramatically increased activity across the site this year. Researchers examined six years of satellite imagery and found heavy traffic, across every major road leading through the complex, along with new paving, reinforced access points, and significant work around the tunnel entrances. The pattern suggests Iran may be moving beyond the excavation stage and into the actual build-out of whatever will ultimately operate inside the mountain. Piles created by years of digging are being removed or flattened, internal roads are being hardened, and several entrances appear more heavily reinforced than they were even last year. Following this story here on the PDB, Pickaxe Mountain is already somewhat familiar. The facility sits just south of Natanz and is buried deep inside a granite mountain, making it one of the hardest targets remaining in Iran's nuclear infrastructure. What remains unclear is exactly what Tehran intends to put inside this complex. Israeli intelligence has reportedly told the U.S. that Iran moved centrifuges and centrifuge components into Pickaxe Mountain last year, but CSIS says the latest satellite imagery cannot confirm that claim. In fact, analysts found some evidence suggesting the facility may not yet be ready for enrichment. Construction activity remains intense, there has not been a major increase in security posture around the site, and analysts have not observed the kind of specialized vehicles or equipment that they might expect if an enrichment operation were already running underground. So, there is no open-source evidence that centrifuges are currently spinning beneath Pickaxe Mountain. In fact, there is increasingly strong evidence that Iran is racing to finish and reinforce the facility, and that raises the other half of this story, whether the U.S. can actually destroy it. President Trump has repeatedly suggested that Pickaxe Mountain could be targeted, saying last week that the U.S. may strike the site soon. But Pickaxe Mountain presents a much harder problem than many of the nuclear facilities that the U.S. and Israel have already attacked. The largest conventional bunker-busting weapon in the U.S. The American arsenal is referred to as the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator. It's a roughly 30,000-pound bomb carried by the B-2 stealth bomber. It was used during Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran's Fordow enrichment site. At Fordow, the U.S. reportedly dropped multiple Massive Ordnance Penetrators onto the same target areas, using earlier explosions to create craters that allowed later bombs to drive their force deeper underground. But Fordow also had identifiable weapons. The U.S. has been using the U.S. military to destroy the U.S. military base in the U.S. and Israel. The U.S. military has been using the U.S. and Israel. harder for missiles or blast waves to travel directly into the complex. CSIS notes that even the GBU-57 may not be enough to reliably destroy what's buried there. That means the objective of a future strike might not be to crush the entire facility. One alternative would be to attack the tunnel entrances and effectively seal Pickaxe Mountain off. The U.S. used a similar approach at the underground nuclear complex in Isfahan in 2025, firing cruise missiles at tunnel portals rather than trying to destroy the entire underground structure. And that makes the construction that's now visible at Pickaxe especially interesting. Iran is reinforcing those entrances. The roads are being hardened. The portals are becoming more heavily protected. CNN has reported on a Pentagon document describing U.S. preparations for a classified live-fire test intended to validate capabilities. "It's against rapidly emerging threats." Sources familiar with the effort said the work was connected to deeply buried Iranian facilities and potentially involved simulations of attacks against specific nuclear targets. So there does appear to be a race underway. Iran is racing to finish and harden Pickaxe Mountain. The U.S., on the other hand, is racing to determine whether it has a weapon or a combination of weapons that can reach it. But as always, there's a potential logistics issue. The U.S. doesn't have an unlimited number of massive ordnance penetrators and the Pentagon is already working to replenish the inventory after the strikes on Fordow. Using several of those weapons against a target that still might survive would be an expensive proposition with no guarantee of success. Which leaves Washington with a difficult problem. Iran appears to be putting more of its sensitive nuclear infrastructure underground, deeper beneath rock and behind reinforced tunnel entrances. And every time the U.S. demonstrates how it can defeat one hardened facility, well, the regime gets another opportunity to study the attack and build the next one differently. All right, coming up next, a disputed report says the UAE warned Benjamin Netanyahu of a major Hamas attack just days before the brutal October 7th massacre and hostage taking. And later, North Korea expands its uranium enrichment program. Again, I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Thanks for tuning in. I'll see you in the next video. Take care. Hey, Mike Baker here, host of the PDB podcast and longtime business owner. Now, here's a question for you. Think about the last time that you called a business and nobody answered the phone. What did you do? Well, right, you called some other business. You called a competitor. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, Q-U-O, the business phone system built so that you never miss a call. Quo brings calls, texts, and voicemails into one organized place for fast, efficient response. Setup takes minutes on any device with zero IT hassle. Quo's built-in AI agent even handles after-hours calls and books appointments so leads never slip through the cracks. Plus, it integrates with tools like HubSpot and Zapier. It's the number one rated business phone system on G2, trusted by over 90,000 businesses. Stay professional and keep every connection alive. After all, money is on the line. Always say hello with Quo. Try Quo for free. Plus, get 20% off your first six months when you go to Quo.com. Once again, that's Quo, Q-U-O, Quo.com slash PDB. Welcome back to the PDB. We're learning about a report out of Israel that could reshape the debate over what Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet knew before those 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks. The allegation is that Netanyahu was warned that Hamas was preparing an operation and that the warning came just days before the October 7th, 2023 attacks. And according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which first reported the story, that warning came directly from the president of the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Zayed. Here's what allegedly happened. Haaretz reports that Hamas leader Yahya Sinmar told a Palestinian intermediary connected to Fatah, which is Hamas' main Palestinian political rival, that the terror group was preparing what he called a, quote, terrifying operation. That intermediary passed a warning to an advisor to the UAE president, then brought it to bin Zayed. Then, in late September of 2023, the UAE president reportedly spoke with Netanyahu by phone for roughly 45 minutes. During that conversation, bin Zayed allegedly told the Israeli prime minister that Sinmar, who was leading Hamas inside Gaza at the time, was preparing a major operation. The Emirati president warned that whatever Sinmar was planning would lead to bloodshed, destabilize the region, and threaten the Abraham Accords. But Netanyahu, according to Haaretz, was not particularly alarmed. According to Haaretz, he, quote, reacted with relative calm and assured bin Zayed that Israel was prepared for any scenario. Netanyahu also reportedly believed that if an attack was coming, it was more likely to originate in the world. West Bank. What happened with that warning after the call is just as important. Former Shin Bet Chief Ronan Barr and former IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told Horetz they were never informed about it. Ten days later, Hamas attacked southern Israel. Roughly 1,200 people were killed and another 251 were taken hostage in the deadliest attack in Israel's history. Now, Israel's failure to recognize the threat from Hamas didn't begin with this alleged phone call. We've known for years that there were warning signs inside the country's own intelligence and security establishment before 7 October. But this explosive report adds a potentially significant new layer to that history. Now, based on the reporting, there's no indication that the UAE president gave Netanyahu a date, a location, or any specific operational details about what Hamas was allegedly planning. The warning was reportedly of a general nature. But if Horetz's account is accurate, it would mean that Netanyahu was personally warned. That Sinwar was preparing some kind of major operation shortly before Hamas launched its attacks. Netanyahu, on the other hand, is saying that none of this happened. His office has called the Horetz report a, quote, absolute lie, saying there was no conversation and no warning. Netanyahu says Israeli security officials found no record of a call between the two leaders during the period in question. He's now threatening to sue Horetz for libel, calling the report a, quote, wicked fabrication with clear political ties. The UAE isn't formally confirming the account either, saying it doesn't comment on private conversations between leaders. But the political consequences are already taking shape inside Israel. The leaders of four opposition parties issued a joint statement demanding an independent investigation into the failures surrounding 7 October, writing, quote, the public in Israel deserves to know what happened before, during, and after the massacre. Netanyahu and his partners in the October 7th government are unfit to know what happened before, during, and after the massacre. to continue in office, end quote. Gaiety Eisenkot, the former Israeli military chief who's emerged as one of Netanyahu's main opponents in the upcoming October election, has also accused the prime minister of ignoring repeated warnings before the attack. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett was even more direct, saying Netanyahu bears, quote, personal and direct responsibility for the failure that led to the deaths of thousands of Israelis on his watch, end quote. The fight over an independent investigation predates this latest report. Many Israelis have spent years demanding a state commission of inquiry into the failures surrounding 7 October, something that Netanyahu has resisted. His opponents now say a genuinely independent investigation should come after the election. And the question of who bears responsibility for 7 October has become a central issue in the campaign. Netanyahu has argued that Israel's security establishment failed to properly warn him about the threat from Hamas. He recently claimed, security officials deliberately chose not to wake him during the early hours of 7 October despite troubling signs coming out of Gaza because they feared he would respond aggressively and trigger a war with Hamas. Netanyahu said in a campaign video last month, quote, if they had woken me up, everything would have looked different. But according to a timeline later released by his own office, Netanyahu was woken at 6.29 that morning when the attack was already underway. He did not immediately order a counterattack and hours passed before he, spoke with Israel's military chief of staff. And that's what makes this latest allegation particularly sensitive for Netanyahu. His argument has been that critical warnings failed to reach him before 7 October. Haaretz is now alleging that one reached him directly from the president of the UAE. Now, whether that conversation actually happened remains disputed. But just weeks before Israeli's vote, Netanyahu's rivals are making the allegation part of the larger argument over who is best suited to be the president of the UAE. OK, I want to shift now to North Korea, where we're getting our clearest picture yet of a massive new uranium enrichment facility that we first discussed back in June of this year. The UN's nuclear watchdog has now independently identified that building as Yongbyon's second uranium enrichment facility. In a report dated the 28th of August, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, says North Korea appears to have installed centrifuges in the facility, with huge cascades across both floors of the new two-story building, with enough room for as many as 28 cascades. Now, there's an interesting part as to how the agency figured this out, because the IAEA hasn't had inspectors inside North Korea since 2009. So for nearly two decades, it's essentially been forced to monitor Kim Jong-un's nuclear program from the outside, piecing together satellite imagery, open-source material, and whatever glimpses the regime itself provides. And one of those glimpses actually did come courtesy of North Korea. When North Korean state media published photographs of Kim touring the facility in June, IAEA investigators compared what they could see inside those images with satellite photographs taken while the building was under construction. According to the IAEA, those images show gas centrifuge cascades installed across both the upper and lower floors. Now, in case you're not a nuclear physicist, a cascade is a gas centrifuge that's installed as essentially a group of centrifuges connected together to enrich uranium. Those centrifuges spin uranium gas at extremely high speeds, gradually increasing the concentration of the isotope needed for nuclear fuel and, at much higher levels, nuclear weapons. Ooh, it's like I'm the science guy. And this is where the new IAEA findings connect directly to what I talked about back in June here on the PDB. Analysis from the arms control non-profit Vertic estimated the new Yongbyon facility could eventually house more than 9,000 centrifuges capable of producing roughly 160 kilograms of highly enriched uranium every year. Combined with North Korea's existing enrichment infrastructure, that could eventually push Pyongyang's total capacity to around 375 kilograms. Now, for context, the IAEA considers just 25 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, a significant quantity for a nuclear weapon. But Yongbyon is only part of what the agency is now seeing. Near Pyongyang, North Korea has another enrichment complex known as Kangsan. An annex was constructed there in 2024, expanding the available space for enrichment equipment. At the time, imagery of the construction couldn't tell outside observers whether North Korea had actually begun using it. Now, well, there's evidence that it has begun using it. The IAEA says there are indications that operations inside that expanded annex began in January of this year. That means the agency is still in the process of developing a nuclear-grade nuclear plant. The agency is now tracking ongoing enrichment activity at both Kangsan and Yongbyon as North Korea continues expanding its capacity to produce weapons-grade nuclear material. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi says, quote, "The ongoing operation of enrichment facilities at Kangsan and Yongbyon and the reported further expansion of North Korea's production of weapons-grade nuclear material is a cause for serious concern." Well, there's a statement of the obvious. The agency also says the continued development of North Korea's nuclear program violates U.N. Security Council resolutions, and we know how Kim Jong-un hates to violate U.N. Security Council resolutions. Pyongyang, for its part, has made clear it has zero intention of backing down. North Korea has declared its status as a nuclear weapons state, quote, "irreversible," while rejecting the IAEA's authority and arguing the agency has, quote, "no legal right to interfere" in the affairs of a nuclear weapons state. The U.S. and South Korea have agreed that North Korea has no right to interfere in the affairs of the U.S. and South Korea has no right to interfere in the affairs of the U.S. and South Korea has no right to interfere. in the affairs of the U.S. and South Korea has no right to interfere Pre-alcohol your first drink of the night, drink responsibly, of course, and you'll feel your best the next day. 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Once the boat was cleared, U.S. forces sank it. And this was not an isolated operation. There's been a sharp uptick in attacks against these kinds of maritime support vessels over the past two weeks. Southcom has announced six separate operations against suspected cartel refueling stations since the 28th of August, including strikes on consecutive days this week. That follows. a broader U.S. military campaign against suspected drug trafficking vessels that began in September of last year. According to the Associated Press, American forces have now carried out at least 68 strikes as part of that campaign, killing at least 227 people. But the recent operations appear to represent a somewhat different approach. Instead of simply targeting boats suspected of carrying narcotics, the U.S. is increasingly going after the infrastructure that allows those boats to operate. to operate far from shore. Drug traffickers moving cocaine through the Eastern Pacific often rely on small, fast vessels with limited range. To keep them moving, larger fishing boats and support vessels can wait offshore with fuel and supplies, effectively serving as floating gas stations for the speedboats carrying drugs toward Mexico and eventually the U.S. Ecuadorian officials say this is exactly what these recently targeted vessels were doing. Los Chorneros, the targeted group, is a criminal organization that's played a major role in Ecuador's worsening security crisis and in international cocaine trafficking. The State Department designated Los Chorneros as a foreign terrorist organization last year, citing the group's attacks and threats against government officials, judges, prosecutors, journalists, and members of Ecuador's security forces. Its longtime leader, José Adolfo Fito Macías, was extradited to the U.S. in July of last year to face federal jurisdiction. Adolfo Fito Macías was arrested on charges of drug and weapons charges. Now, Washington appears to be putting increasing pressure on the group's maritime network. There's an important caveat here. Southcom says intelligence tied these vessels to cartel operations, and Ecuador's government has also described several of the recent sinkings as part of a joint counter-narcotics effort. But some crew members and families involved in earlier cases have disputed U.S. allegations that they were trafficking drugs. After a pause earlier this summer, lethal strikes against the U.S. and the U.K. have led to the resumption of suspected trafficking boats in August. Since then, the military has been busy dismantling the support vessels that keep those drug boats fueled and moving across the Pacific. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, the 10th of September. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at [email protected]. And if you'd like to experience an ad-free PDB lifestyle, well, you can do that. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting [email protected]. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.