„Selbstzerbröselung“ des Westens – aber wie viel Macht haben die BRICS-Staaten wirklich?

"Economic Challenges", the "Handelsblatt Ökonomie"-Podcast. Bert Rürup, the head economist of Handelsblatz, discusses with Michael Hüter, the director of the Institute of German Economy, weekly current economic challenges. For Germany, as well as for the world economy. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Hello, Michael. Hello, Bert. Well, the years from 1945 to 1991, the era of the so-called Cold War, was a power-political confrontation between the UDSSR and the led Osblock and the US-dominated West. This Oswest conflict ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Osblocks at the beginning of the 1990s. And, one must also say, a economic change in China after Mao Zedong's death. The political scientist Francis Fukuyama declared in 1992, that one hears the beginning and end of the story worldwide and permanently the principles of liberalism, democracy and market economy as dominant principles. And that is what Grandios should honor. The Osblock is a two-way story, but at the point, as a kind of geopolitical counterpoint of the West, the alliance of the Brexites, the Karn war in Brazil, in Russia, in India, in China, and then in South Africa. And now there are some who have come, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and so on and so forth. That means that the goal of this very heterogeneous group is to question the global order of the world. And the desire of President Trump to surround his country with tall walls and to be as authentic as possible is also not suitable as a continuation of globalization. On the contrary, it is a deglobalization of globalization. My question is the geopolitical and economic dominance of the West to disappear and to make a global new order. Robert, but first, for our last podcast before the summer break, yes, that's a very big story. Consciously. Yes, that should also be considered processes that are carried out on the beach or during hiking. So I want to answer on a large scale. I think, yes, we are currently experiencing the end of the European modernity. And I would in fact continue the time frame. This European modernity is, of course, not only for Europe, but also for the transatlantic West as a whole. Why should you actually call it that? Because from this root of the freedom self-expression of people in the French Revolution, the American Revolution, our modern states are finally created. People's sovereignty with democracy, press freedom, law and so on and also accept what has been reduced in Western peace, which is independent of the internal constitution. First of all, all states are at the same level with each other at eye level. There is no right to intervene in the internal situation. That is somehow related. And that has been described as a project of the West for a long time. The work of Harnich August Winkler, the story of the West, which basically goes from this project, from this thesis, this project and says, this is actually not yet to be told to the end. The last tape that Harnich August Winkler wrote was published about ten years ago. And there were already the first difficulties on the table. I think it was published on the right time. Today you wouldn't be able to do that anymore. Yes, that's just the history of history. Maybe we'll get back to your thesis. And that's why I'm starting this. This is actually a weight shift. It is also a departure from the idea that was indicated in the Fukuyama thesis, that this... ...the value of stress is global. ...a free political society, market economy. Yes. And if you look at it this way, we had the experience of the unipolar moment. After the end of the East-Burkner-Soviet Union, the USA, the Hegemon, which was then also democratically legitimized and designed, so the example for this value. And of course, the idea was not entirely to prove that it is now possible. Today, we have to say, this unipolar moment, then we have already discussed more, was also experienced on the break of this day. You can say that in America, they probably broke even more in the USA. In some cases, there is self-breakage. Exactly. It is self-breakage. So not only in Murbe, but also in the way that politics is organized there. And the other, the free moment of the year 1990, that was connected to it and with these Western values, is also no longer there. And now we have these groups that you mention, these bricks. They are probably more a symbol than actual power. Very heterogeneous groups. But they present almost half of the world's population. Yes, yes. So now, after the expansion, it is 48 percent. 30 percent. In the world, it is about 28.5 percent. We do not have to round it that big. I am small-minded, so 28.5 percent. But that is why there are already increased structures. During the G7 states, 45 percent bip, 10 percent population, is of course another deal. We also see that there are completely different ideas behind it. But there is of course a lot in motion. And we have often already noticed which activities China, for which bricks are an interesting construct, in Sub-Saharan Africa and in other areas, also in South America, are organized. Even Daldas speaks for this. So these geopolitical shifts and the dynamics that are in there, I think it makes it very clear that we are in an outbreak situation. And that is caused by more sources. That is, you can clearly say that there is a catalyze. So Trump is one of them. He is a terrorist, that is, in other words, Western world order. Yes. And you always try to understand what a concept is behind it. This week it has been taken into account that after July 9, which is now behind us, when we are sent on Friday, it is somehow unclear, the Europeans assume that there is still a result of negotiations. The bills will probably be sent to the 1st of August. He wants to send a lot of nice letters now. It's just so funny that he sometimes sends us wonderful letters. Or a big, beautiful bill. Wonderful law, wonderful letters. And you wonder if all this, why all this is so convincing, it also has to be the alternative if you can formulate it in such a way. Because we live from the fact that we are amazed to see that this self-destruction of the USA is early on, right? I mean the indescribability of the USA, which is also confusing, for example, with a look at Ukraine, there will be weapons put up again, there will be no weapons again. Then you don't know, is he a Putin friend again? Then he's disappointed again, because he wasn't so nice on the last phone. It's all hard to understand systematically. And in this respect, it also speaks for the fact that this destruction, of course, also influences the world structure. It's completely clear. Yes, and above all, of course we have to admit that we have a personalization of politics in the USA. Before, there was a concept and that's not there. We now have a personalization of politics and with this, this politics is unaccountable. And in my opinion, it is completely inappropriate that the largest, most valuable nation in the world actually takes over a leading position. You can't do that. That won't work, because as you said, it's always an implicit willingness of the hegemony, which has to be questioned every day. But in the case of doubt, to play the world police. And to have a few criteria for that. And finally, because he's not only attractive in the hard power, but also in the soft power, so culture with the soft factors, which are also accepted. Hegemony always lives on that. These resources, on the other hand, that they are also accepted somewhere, that they come to bear. And I mean, if you look at this brics history now, also in this week, they met from July 6th to 7th, so a very current week, so to speak, the international economic policy and trade policy, then it's like you said, it's a group that is more than the decline of the other. So they want the West weak, they don't want the American hegemony anymore. But there are many tensions and doubts between them. I mean, China, India, with border conflicts. It's a bit over, yes. Yes, that's always going to be like that. No. Yes, but it's always going to be described as being the heart of a soul. They are never really friends. Then President Lula from Brazil, from the beginning of the millennium, that moved with him, who is now in the big court, but they all don't come. That's interesting too. Putin couldn't come, he had to be arrested. Xi Jinping suddenly didn't stop. That's what you can say now. Donnie is not so important or he believes, the shop runs without him being there in his sense. Because he is the big Zampano in this series, because one day we won't forget, we have enormous income differences, we have only indicated how different that is between the groups, so G7 versus BRICS, but if you take the United Arab Emirates, they have $ 68,000 as a year income per capita and 3,000 in Ethiopia. That's a very interesting structure, that one can find there. The leading nations are doubtless, India and China, although I think that India is becoming increasingly strong. They have a younger population, they speak of a Chinese age, they are leading in certain modern technologies. I believe that, in perspective, India has good cards, but I already know that when I was a child, you always talked about the fact that the elephant, who is almost ready to crawl for India, and then to race. It never happened. Oh, it happened to your child? Look at that. Yes, of course. As long as they are independent, that was always the sharp start, because of the world language and because of the possibilities. On the contrary, this union is clearly dominated by China. That's right, but we have to say, I think China has the highest point in terms of economic dynamics. Yes, and you can also tell by the uncertainty which economic strategy is suitable for China. Last but not least, to hear from Jim Pink, well, there are overcapacities, which we have noticed. There must be some cleaning, but these overcapacities have reasons. They have been triggered by enormous subventions, which are reflected in the bad finances of many provinces. And you don't have to be surprised. If I set it on a scale, I have such an effect. And if I don't really give the consumers the space to bring their consumer wishes, but rather to bring the whole social model to a dynamic of the industry, then of course I have an imbalance. In this respect, and then comes the age, as you mentioned, we have a lot of the weak points, I think the essential trigger is the age and the shrinkage. Yes, for China. But still, they are the rising nation. And I think if, let's say, there is a time window that this very heterogeneous state-of-the-art overflows the West, they will be in the next 15 years. Yes, because without the China's frontrunner function, it wouldn't work. And I mean, we have last week, in this case, it is exciting that we again have a kind of follow-up to these foreign issues. We have discussed the idea, which Mrs. von der Leyen discussed, whether the European Union didn't have this comprehensive Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, so the TPP, the rest, so to speak, where the USA was still there and Trump then got out of there. It comes together, as is the French Kingdom, that I, from Great Britain, have already gotten in there. So that you look for such alliances, I think that is the second aspect of this dynamic change. All alliances move together. You have indicated it, the BRICs are also not unique. They don't know exactly, they actually don't want to do anything with the conflict of the West. That is also a signal, the end of the European modern, called up as a shipwrecker. It doesn't matter what you do for it. Why do we have to, why do we have to sit next to it, what your conflicts are made of? That's their last resort. They don't want to be affected, they leave us alone with it. On the other hand, you have to call them. So if there is a world community and if we want to bring some care, then it works. Then we also have to take the rules, take the local rules. On the other hand, you have to accept that, what you used to be as a West and West block, it doesn't exist anymore. It dissolves more successively and Trump promotes this experience. That is, the West still exists as a term, but no longer as a trade union. No, there is no longer, as a trade union, there is no longer a trade union. You have to say that. What Trump organizes there, also in the freedom of science, in all other topics, is a care. It is a care of the community. He also sees the European partner not really anymore as a partner. And that is somehow annoying people, because they organize with this stupid Europe. There is no understanding how to do something like that. And then you don't have to take it seriously. Then he makes himself fat with figures like Putin. That's very surprising. But the fact is, we are counterfeit witnesses of a shift of the geopolitical coordinates. Not necessarily what we call the West. That is the question. That must be a significant amount. The West is also very much higher in terms of level. But the perspective is more oriented on distance for this country. And destruction. Yes. But there is still hope. Of course, when you take the management of hard-on-soft power, the European continent is very attractive. In any case, the migration continent. It is also the continent that sees the student streams in the middle of the eye. You want to go there, but it is difficult to go there. In this respect, there are also exciting counterfeits. Of course, it also speaks for your point. If you look around a little bit under the large European democracies, we are now not paying from the BIP, but from the trading frame in better terms than, for example, France. Or the United Kingdom of Great Britain, which takes three large ones. Italy looks a bit different. But look at Macron. We still have almost two years until the presidential election. There is actually nothing more going on. The interesting thing is that we are not at all so true. Because of course the representation of politics, of government actions, the state in France, of course, is completely different than with us. You think this is completely impressive, when they all wear their costumes and uniforms. And that's all the president is doing differently. If you look in, you have to say, there is no complete silence. And the same applies for the UK. One year after the government entrance, the government lady is actually pretty at the end. They didn't have a story from the beginning. They get involved in the question of whether we will get some kind of traces in the State House. Then you are actually in no good constitution. What you are now describing is, in the end, a resolution of the West. Yes, I don't want to describe it so badly, but it remains something that still holds this West together. And that is ultimately the question, where do you want to be, if you can't be at home? It sounds a bit abstract, but where do I want to be, if I can't be in Europe? Then in the first state or in Canada? Where do you want to be? In Canada, you would be today. But that's not the case now. But if you take the cultural diversity and if you paint yourself the diversity of the country, what happens in the states of the USA, the individual governors with different perspectives, who wants to be in China? So Russia has no one. And that's the same applies for the Americans. You shouldn't forget that. These roots may not have the power of connection and orientation, but they're not completely gone. And that won't be easy to handle, especially the longer Trump or a possible successor operates exactly this policy, the participation and the deference of the others who are actually partners and who can still be enemies. Who makes a policy that is as small as possible and of course he also wants to decouple from the international workforce. He wants to move companies in his way, but the international workforce doesn't want to accept him. And of course you have to see what we call Europe. Of course it doesn't just pay attention to human beings, but also ultimately in a economic integration in a ultimately growing economy. And that's the end. That's why I believe that the maps of the United States are not as bad as it might be in the press for now. If you take a look, because the question is where do you actually want to go. That's what drives us and we don't find any real answers. In this week's "Dienstag im Handelsblatt" a comment by Kenneth R. Weinstein, a president for years, a very conservative think factory and an institute. And I don't know how you found the article. I wouldn't say it's a Trumpist, but a very conservative American who then actually positions himself and says, "Well, you don't take care of Trump. Trump is only an expression of your mistake. It was your European misconduct, all the fuss in the negotiations that were carried out with the European Union that made us Chinese. And Trump only brings us these realities of different knowledge. I mean that we have to do something different with the defense and have finally realized that it wasn't Trump's fault, but the Russian attack on Ukraine. Yes, there is a near conflict. That's the topic. But I think it's a little weird because it looks like that Europe is very successful with CETA, with Canada. We are short from the closure of Mercosur and the ratification. We have with Japan, with South Korea, various free trade agreements have been closed. And then he says, the purchase of more US liquid gas and the expansion of the equipment are the first important steps that are in the interest of Europe. Well, the purchase of US liquid gas if you look at how these transition terminals look like in the USA, in the nature. I would say, well, let's hold back. Actually, our energy waves are not quite wrong, but in the end it is a pure power system. If you read this article, this American, that it is ultimately a power claim and your European always annoys us, I mean it, because he doesn't just stand against it and now he gets that fat. And that doesn't bother you, but learns from it. That's a very arrogant attitude. But it brings to me that this attitude that we see now in the USA and that will definitely seal off, it's not a single blow, how to think about it, will ultimately lead to a joint of Europe including Canada, including Canada. That means, and if there is a counter-wailing power in Russia, it will be Europe. Yes, then it will be Europe. And not Europe plus the USA. The USA will make their splendid isolation number. That seems to be the case. Yes, and then it depends on whether Europe will be the heart of personal economic freedom and that's what I propose. Yes, that's the way it is. But then I would say again, after our conversation last week, then this idea is with the rest TPP, that is, this CPTPP Australia, Brunner, Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, Japan, Chile, UK, Singapore, New Zealand and Vietnam are already a good idea because you can bind them to these values and also have a big partner structure. I think that makes it even more interesting. If you talk economically about our conversation today, the clumsiness, then that is also included with the data we got this week for the German export. This year, the export has shrunk by 1.4% in April, by 1.6%. The imports have gone back by 3.8%. There are several arguments behind it. The weak demand from the USA has gone back by 7.7% in May against April. China has gone back by 3%. But on the left side, there is a push as the first reaction. But still, I understand that. In April and May, the two sides are negative. And that ultimately comes to the economy. The work division is not intensified, but it is less. 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