SEC Win Totals Part 2: Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Ole Miss & MORE | 2026 College Football Futures

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We recently took a family trip down to Nashville and made sure that we were going to be able to see the Kalshi. to enjoy as much of the city as we could while we're there. We walked around downtown, spent some time checking out all the live music, and of course, my favorite moment, the local barbecue. It was one of those trips where we got to spend some quality time together, get out of our normal routine, and experience a lot of what makes Nashville such a fun place to visit. And honestly, while we were away enjoying all of that, it got me thinking about how our place back home was just sitting empty. Whether you're heading out for a family trip, a quick getaway, or an extended holiday, you could list your space on Airbnb and turn the time you're away into a chance to earn a little extra cash. And if something big, like a sporting event, concert, or festival, is coming to your area, that can mean a lot of travelers are looking for places to stay. Listing your space on Airbnb gives them a chance to experience your city like a local, while helping you earn cash that you can put toward your own upcoming travel. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.com slash host. Welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast with your hosts Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Connell, and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. Presents the Cover 3 podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Bud Elliott. That's Danny Connell. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live at youtube.com slash Cover 3 and everywhere you get your podcasts on demand. Thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe. Smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the Cover 3 tailgate, where they are saying we should have had Barton's photo on the thumbnail. Yes, we are doing. S-E-C win totals part two. We're going alphabetical order. That means everything from Missouri all the way to Barton Simmons, Vanderbilt, Commodores. I believe we've made an adjustment. I believe that unless Barton takes legal action against us, we're going to have a little, we'll at least celebrate. He's family, right? I think, but we've got our in-house attorney, Bud, billable hours. I think we're protected here, right? Yeah. I think as long as he actually. He was under contract when he gave us that clip. We have license to use it in perpetuity. And maybe some fair use promotional, as long as it's within the same realm of photo access that we have for all of our thumbnails, we should be okay. Yeah. For instance, I don't know if we could say, we're the wins. I don't see it on this schedule or I got to get the quote right. I don't know if we could use AI to take Barton's voice and voice a new ad for a sports book. That would be good. But I think we are covered for our use here. But just like Daniels, he's free to send us a cease and desist if he wants to. That doesn't have any legal effect, but. Yeah. If we used his face on a t-shirt and tried to sell it. Is he going to ask to return his locks trophy that he won? Like Daniels apparently did. Yeah. Well. I'm collecting reporting on that, but I think that's probably true. Oh, all that Barton talk. I just think we should just. Just dive right in. So, as we've got eight more SEC win totals to go, I ask you, gentlemen, y'all ready to count them up? Let's do this thing. As much as I think the under is a safe play, I can't even. I just can't. I don't see it. It's not all. It's not all there. It's not the schedule I'm looking at. Unless there's another schedule somewhere. And we begin with the Missouri Tigers. Another comment that I saw in the tailgate before we got going, college football tradition, Hope Hardy can go. Yeah, we obviously are still keeping close eyes on the recovery for Ahmad Hardy, suffering a gunshot wound. But I remember some encouraging updates early. Eli Drinkwitz, I believe, has a media availability Saturday where we might get another update. Paul Roberts, though, good player. You know, this is still. I mean, Danny, I see you nodding your head. Eli Drinkwitz has had good running backs, offenses that set them up for success. Caden Green, foundation of your offensive line. Austin Simmons, stepping in as your new quarterback. Defensively, lost a lot of production from a really good defense. I like DK, the way that this schedule sets up to build some confidence early before you get a lot of challenges late. Over-under win total at draft camp. King Sportsbook is set at 6.5, over minus 120, under plus 100. Danny, how do you see this playing out for Coach Drink's team? To be fair, before I give you my answer, I can show you my notes here. I got scribbled out, over-crossed out, under-crossed out, back to over. It was back and forth, back and forth. A lot of this does hinge on Ahmad Hardy, like how healthy is he? I was trying to find out. They said he made a cameo at practice the other day. I'm like, well, that's not the news I wanted to see. I want to see him suited up. Then I go look at the schedule. I'm like, well, do they need him the first three games? Kansas is tough. I agree with you. I said, no, it doesn't really matter. I don't think Austin Simmons is your typical very little experience type of quarterback. He did play some for Ole Miss. If you guys remember last year, I picked Ole Miss as a playoff team because of the belief I had in Austin Simmons. Little did I know Trinidad Chambliss would be the one that would get them there. I'm going to go over, not with a ton of confidence, but because I believe in the run game. I think Austin Simmons will play well enough to kind of keep them at solid quarterback play. I think the defense is good enough to keep them in games. Eli Drinkwit's past few years, and I know the schedule has been easier, has been one of the more consistent winners in this league. I'm kind of going to trust the last three years, go with the trend, and take the over. I'm solidly under here. Let's just kind of run through it real fast. I know we've got a lot of teams to get to. My system shows the offensive coordinator change as one of the biggest coordinator downgrades of the offseason. I'm not trying to be mean about it. That's just kind of how it labels it. I have to trust that. For context, that's Kirby Moore out as he goes to take over at Washington State. Chip Lindsey stepping in as the new offensive coordinator. Willing to listen to the contrary argument, which is that, hey, this is still drinks. Certainly, right? And that those two know each other pretty well. But I do. I'm showing that in my model as a downgrade. I think the Austin Simmons thing is a huge wild card because he does have a lot of talent. We'll have to see how that goes. You know, losing the right tackle already does scare me a little bit. Like I thought that was going to be the real strength of the team. And it still still might be. They lost a ton on defense. And like as a knoll, I'm a little conscious of this. Like some of these teams that were early adopted and they had kind of first mover advantage in the NIL space or in the portal space or in taking advantage of like something, you know, that was very new to the sport. And Missouri embraced it super early. And I'm a firm believer that Missouri had an edge on a lot of teams in the conference for quite a while because they kind of just, you know, like the guy that throws the first punch oftentimes wins fight, right? But now this fight's gone a couple rounds and everybody else has kind of got their footing too. And I no longer believe that Missouri has a big advantage. When it comes to NIL. So, you know, for me, I look at this. I think that they're like a pretty good edge over Kansas. I think Kansas is like meaningfully bad. So I would rather attack this from the perspective of under four and a half conference wins at minus $1.50 because I don't see five conference wins here on this schedule. I'd rather pay the $1.50 to go there. But for the show pick, I am going to go under here. I don't have them making a bowl. I'm on the under. It's not with great conviction. That is not a solid under. But as I ran this thing through, I was, you know, the beep, beep, boop, bop, bop, bop, chipalytic spit out a six and a half. I think it's a bowl team. I think they figure out a way to get there, but I might've tipped my hand a little bit acknowledging that, man, that is a, an absolutely just sort of brutal run of games in terms of the opponents that you play. And if I've got any concerns about defensive depth or offensive line depth, you're just going to get eaten alive. going up against the body and the caliber of these teams. You know, as we look at Austin Simmons stepping in and as we think about, okay, what happens if this team gets off schedule? What happens if this team gets behind by a big deficit? I'm not yet ready to buy in and pick that up. And that's where, you know, if you're going to see those losses start to pile up, getting to the seventh win might be a little difficult. Nothing crazy, still a quality team that a Texas or a Georgia, like it works the other way too. Can't take Missouri lightly. You know, they're going to come and they're going to bring a fight, but over the course of that season, that's too many difficult opponents all in a row. Feels more like a six and six for me, but again, I kind of solidly seven and five and to button this up and nothing but well wishes from the cover three podcast to a mod Hardy super player that, you know, for many, many reasons we would like to see on the field this fall. How many games are going to win this fall? I was just going to tell D Brax. Is that dude that used to be on this pod still at Vanderbilt? Yes, he is. Yeah, they've been winning a little bit. Yeah, yeah, exactly. He's only crushing it to like preparation for this show. Like I somehow was able to really actually have some professionalism and remove myself. And I was going through and I'm like, damn, this roster is good. You know, right. Great talent evaluation. Wow. Just they've hit really hit on a couple of these portal additions. Oh, yeah, it's Barton. Of course. No kidding. How many games is Brent Venable is going to win this fall? I like to give credit and make sure that I provide the acknowledgement that when a coach goes into a hot seat season and then absolutely delivers, then we need to give some credit. You changed the offensive coordinator. You doubled down on your strength as a defensive team. And sure enough, Oklahoma was able to make it to the college football playoff like that. That was a good job by a coach who's in his first head coaching job. And we wondered if he was going to be a lifetime coordinator. So good job on Brent Venable's backed into a corner. They won their way out. Now, let's spin this forward. Expectations are set at DraftKings Sportsbook. Seven and a half is the win total minus 156 to the over under plus 130. So they're they're really telling you that they're seeing eight and four here. The schedule as it breaks down, if you watched and I hope you did. Our cover three. Takeover on CBS Sports Network. I know, bud, you're already zeroed in on that Oklahoma-Michigan game, at least in terms of the impact that it could have on the larger at large college football playoff race. That's a massive one. They also have to go on the road to play Georgia. They also have to go on the road and play Florida in the swamp. A few of the tougher games, though, are going to end up being either home or neutral. Ole Miss, Texas A&M have to come to Norman. And of course, in the Cotton Bowl is where they will find the Longhorns for that traditional spot in October. John Mateer, we have discussed his muscles extensively. But hey, let's not forget David Stone, Kip Lewis, Peyton Bowen. Some of my favorite defenders in college football are all going to be wearing that crimson over there for the Sooners. But as you're looking at the team and as you're looking at the schedule, how do you start to pick this apart for Oklahoma? Yeah, so I think you project like a real improvement on the offensive line. I think they have upgrades at the skill position, both in terms of some of the young guys stepping up. And in terms of some of the returning starters, you know, improving like I everybody's going to say their quarterback did a lot better in the offseason and like look good at some camp and all that stuff. And like with Mateer, I think I've said a lot on him. I don't think he sees the field very well. I'm concerned that this is like his fourth year in this offense. And he still like misses guys like just doesn't see guys who are open. So maybe it clicks like I can't fully rule out the possibility that it clicks. But even if it doesn't. Like he's still a grown man. You know, they do use his legs a lot. He does like to run around that that defense should still be awesome. I mean, there's there's very few teams that you would even argue like have a better interior defensive line than the Sooners. I think they have some real wild cards on the edges who have like real high potential. And there's a chance that those wild cards hit right like the secondary, you know, I should still be really damn good. I if I'm going to attack this from a win totals perspective, I I think it's priced like fairly. Like this is legitimately a really tough schedule. You have to go to Georgia. You have to go to Michigan. You got to play Texas. You know, you have to like go to the swamp. You got to play Ole Miss. You got to play A&M like that's not easy. Right now. You should be Mississippi State on the road. You should be Missouri on the road like South Carolina at home. Like there's a chance South Carolina is decent, right? So I do think this is priced fairly. I'm going to go over here and stop beating around the bush. It's not one that I would like. Really really attack. I would say if I was going to bet them over. I would rather bet them for the playoff at like 350 then because I do think there are five teams out there right Oklahoma, Texas. Maybe Ole Miss if Louisville is like a 10-win team Michigan and Ohio State that will have a case on playoff selection Sunday to get in at nine and three. And I think probably only one of them does but I think because of the major non-conference game that those those teams play plus the really tough in conference draw. That they got like that's the five I think just in modeling it out. I don't think USC. I think you're dead at nine and three. I think all these other SC teams. I think they're dead at nine and three but those three and the two from the Big Ten that I mentioned which obviously Oklahoma is included. So I'd rather play them at like a plus 350 for the playoff then play, you know minus dollar 56 to go over seven and a half or alternatively like plus 156 to go over eight and a half, you know, like if you think there's a non-zero chance they can end at nine and three and I just said I do then like to me. I'd rather play, you know, play the 350 then take the 156 to go over eight and a half. I like the over for Oklahoma. I have my doubts about John Mateer from an NFL perspective because it's been a hot topic. I know for Nelly. We've talked about it like how many quarterbacks are jacked in the NFL but in college football. We've seen a lot of them. I think I don't know. I don't think so. I don't care. I know. I'm right. I'm here for him. Give me some more of them. I think John Mateer could be a Tim Tebow light which is still that jacked would be pretty effective style of play. I do think it's a good thing that he did bulk up because he likes to run the football. It's been a big question. Can Oklahoma run the football better? I think Mateer is going to be a big part of that. I don't see him sitting back there and picking apart defenses, you know throwing for 300 yards a game, but I could see him being very effective and sort of the RPO. Play action pass. Get it out of your hands quickly. I don't know if his weapons are quite as good as Tebow had at Florida, but I think they're good enough. I think the defense is clearly going to be one of the best in the SEC like they have been David Stone has been an absolute beast on the interior for them. They're hoping he kind of breaks out and has that standout season. So I think they're over but I after hearing Bud's analogy and the better bet I think probably it is better from a value perspective to say hey this team could make the playoffs at 9 and 3 because I think that's good. I think that's clearly in play. All right, so bud you had Oklahoma Ole Miss, Texas, Michigan, Ohio State. That's your five Ole Miss if Louisville is like a 10-win team. Okay, you know we had to do those bracket projections when we were up in New York and I felt so out of my depth when I sort of scribbled it out and then you know Bud started doing his and talking about the different way he modeled it and then all of a sudden I realized how sloppy my work was and so but just to let you know. I had to go back and like double-check all of my scenarios that like they could plausibly play out that all of these teams could make it. I've got Oklahoma there. I've got Oklahoma at 10 and 2. I've got Oklahoma getting in so at seven and a half. Yes. Now my official way that I broke this down with the win-loss toss-up analysis had it more of like an eight and a half. So I mean I'm already shooting high admitting if I'm going to have them in my playoff that they're even going to go over and win more of the toss-ups. That means they're going to have to get it done. Probably in the swamp. It means they're going to have to avoid stubbing their toe against Missouri late in the season hold court at home, you know against the likes of a Texas A&M or maybe even to be able to and I always think it's so funny. I don't care what the projected point spread is. I don't know if y'all treat it this way but Red River shootouts a coin flip every single season. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So as all win all win-loss toss-up analysis always going to have that there. So yeah over seven and a half and like if you want to flirt with the playoff. I think I like that as well. Because officially I think this is this is probably going to be a team that is going to be knocking on the door right there. The one stretch that bothers me for them like they get a buy between Georgia and Red River, right? But the one that that concerns me is at UF host Ole Miss Jose and M like if you need to go kind of pedal the metal on running material. That's like three weeks in a row everywhere else. They get some kind of break. You know, I mean we didn't even mention Parker Livingstone. Are you buying the idea that he's adding a real like boost to the passing game? Not like a meaningful upgrade for me. I mean, I don't think he sucks but like it's not a I don't think he's like a huge difference maker in the SEC. Yeah. Will be interesting. I think he's a good wide receiver. Yeah, and it just last year. They were so banged up that the UF. That the you know, eventually and Isaiah sitting there was just kind of it right? Let's let material run around that Isaiah run downfield and know maybe he's open for a bomb or maybe it gets picked off over to the middle of the field. see oh yeah trell harris another piece of that wide receiver room now as well count them up speaking of old miss they're over under win total at draft king sportsbook lined like very very similarly seven and a half wins kind of just like oklahoma over at minus 166 under at plus 130 um dk we're looking at pete golding it was two and one in the college football playoff but this is a team that did have lane kiffin leading the way for an 11 and 1 campaign that got them into the college football playoff defensively it's a lot of portal turnover and we are we are counting on pete the former dc to be able to go and get it done we've mentioned a lot on here the um john david baker hires offensive coordinator he was past game coordinator for lane kiffin so structurally i'm expecting it might be a big piece of this trinidad chambliss we've mentioned him extensively here on this show and i think we've got some some good updates kiwan lacy offseason shoulder surgery but you know everything you wanted to see in terms of getting back for fall camp i liked this note maybe a little 12 personnel from old miss you know maybe get a little kayla bodum out there maybe start banging at the line of scrimmage we'll see how that ends up working out danny how are you uh looking at the rebels in a year one officially of the pete golding era so i think they're going to be a big part of the game i think they're going to have probably the best backfield one of them texas is really good too but kiwan lacy and trinidad chambliss are as tough as it come to spot or tough as it comes to stop did you guys see the insider intel piece where uh espn did article getting anonymous coaches on their opponents and it was talking about trinidad chambliss and it said i think lane kiffin gets too much credit for trinidad the dude's a baller like saying that trinidad is more the reason why that offense went um i think the defense doesn't have a lot of credit for trinidad because they're not going to be able to have holes to fill but i also think they spent pretty big in the portal to replace those pieces i'm going to trust the quarterback he is really really special i think pete golding the transition you know obviously it's going to be a little bit different look but he's very familiar with culture what he wants to build i think this team will have a chip on their shoulder all season long being compared to lsu that lsu game clearly is a huge one even if they win or lose it i don't i'm slightly over here as well like not really an edge for me to play um i do think that their defense is going to be better than it was last year like they got some young guys who i like a lot i think their linebackers are underrated i think like some of the dbs they took aren't like splashy but i think they're just like competent plus you know to where they're yeah i just think they've upgraded the db room and even if trinidad doesn't take some kind of extra step even if he's already at his ceiling you know i think they're going to be better than they were last year if he can just keep playing at that level the offensive tackle scares me a little bit like texas has real pass rushers oklahoma has real pass rushers georgia i think i do think like i have some renewed confidence in georgia's pass rush based on the word it's coming out of camp there you know but i i like their home schedule quite a bit you know charlotte lsu missouri auburn georgia comes to town that'll be tough but like they're not 10 point dogs to georgia in oxford you know wofford and then mississippi state you know if they can hold serve at home a couple of these roadies are tricky obviously at texas oklahoma like at florida is not easy at vandy i think vandy i mean we'll you'll see but i think people are overestimating the vandy drop off um personally so uh yeah i'm slightly over here under okay um any like i'm right i'm right there on seven and a half um i i think that there's some pieces that you've got to pull apart and some assumptions that you have to make and as i was you know doing sort of big picture stuff i was so obsessed uh or at least not obsessed i was so focused on trinidad chambliss and his ability to be a fixer his ability to be an eraser a problem solver and i'm i don't know that in a win totals exercise i'm ready to have that be the the branch i'm going to stand on because this thing could also just as easily break the other way and now i'm going to have to all of a sudden we're dealing with um an old miss team who's got a defensive coordinator as a head coach a bunch of portal pieces that all need to gel together perfectly and a really really tough schedule so i think seven and a half somewhere between seven and five eight and four feels about right i'm i think i'm a lot cooler on this than i was like i when danny when did we have to start doing schedule predictions what was it back in april right you're talking about old miss and then april or may i'm like oh don't bet against trinidad you know talking about old miss here on august 14th i've cooled my jets just a little bit um need the portal pieces to come together on defense if that defense is better as you mentioned bud then i'll be wrong and that's fine that'll be that'll be one that tips the other way but kind of like i said during yesterday's part one if there are teams that i'm going to buy stock in vanderbilt being one of them then i need to look at old miss going to nashville as a tricky spot a loot like a very possible loss if not one that i might chalk up as a loss so uh very very slight under i think seven and a half feels fair to me coming up on the other side we keep things rolling with the south carolina gamecocks big season ahead for shane beamer and more next this episode is brought to you by pnc bank if you've ever watched a football game with 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podcast ryan in the tailgate the fornelli faithful want tom's picks uh that's after we delivered for the bud heads out there who wanted to make sure bud's picks were there for sec part one for the fornelli faithful missouri is under no for the fornelli faithful tom is under six and a half wins for missouri he is over seven and a half wins for oklahoma he is under seven and a half wins for old miss which brings us to the question count them out that's not the question, that's a statement. Okay, the question. How many games are you going to win this fall? For Shane Beamer. So, freaks list came out. Our friend Bruce Feldman had Nick Harbour up there at number one. South Carolina had three players on the list. Once you add Dylan Stewart and Lenora Sellers, not a lot of schools out there with three people on his 101-player freaks list. But South Carolina has been recruiting well under Shane Beamer. Just last season's results really striking after being up inside top 20-caliber team the year before. Shane Beamer is kind of a thing unto himself. I almost have to set it aside and really try to dive into the roster, into the schedule. Kendall Bryles comes in as the new offensive coordinator. We've rebuilt the offensive line in the portal. If it all works, then we might see Lenora Sellers running again and being a lot more of a runner than he was last season. Danny, what are your expectations for the game? Cox, and what's going to happen this season? DraftKings Sportsbook, six and a half wins over plus 110 under minus 130. I love me some Shane Beamer, right? I do. I really do like him. I hope this season turns in the right direction. I don't say this one with a ton of conviction because I could see them getting to seven wins. I still don't know if that's enough, like if South Carolina fans will be happy enough with that. It depends on how it looks and who they beat. But I'm going to go on the under. Lenora Sellers is way too much of a wild card for me. He's one of those potential. Potential, potential. We always hear about how good he could be as opposed to actually seeing him do that. I'm curious to see, again, same thing with Nick Harbour as well. Somebody who's supposed to be this unbelievably physically talented, and he is. He's a freak, but he really hasn't taken over many games and been that guy that could be the thousand-yard receiver that's one of the tops in the SEC. Too many question marks for me. I'm going to go under. I was solid. I was solidly under at the start of this offseason. But the more I dig into this, they do have some pieces. I think this offense may be a perfect fit for Sellers, honestly. And simplifying things, I think this is an offense you can run if you do have some questions at offensive line, which I do have for them. I like the easy start. If you're an over player here, you need to be four and one to start. Yeah. Yeah. Right? Kent, Townsend, Mississippi State, at Bama, and then Kentucky. You need to start four and one. And then you need to get three of this seven. At UF, Tennessee, at Oklahoma, Texas A&M, at Arkansas, Georgia, at Clemson. That's a little challenging. I'm not showing a big edge here. I guess for the show, I'll go slightly over, because you do draw Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Arkansas. And those are my bottom three SEC teams. I'd like to be through Missouri in there as well, but I don't think Missouri's quite on the level of those three that I just read off. I'm down on Clemson. So very slightly over, but not a big edge for me. The difference in a hot seat season with a bye week that is smack dab after six games at October the 17th, the difference between four and two and two and four is massive. Because you mentioned going four and one through that first five. I'll just sort of extend it all the way through the bye week. The next game is at Florida. It is possible, yeah, that you could be four and two and have those wins that you just mentioned. Bud, Kent State, Townsend, Mississippi State, and Kentucky. All games at home, all games that they'd be favored in all of them, right? All the home games? Yeah, those home games in the first half of the season. Yeah. Yeah, maybe not massive favorites against Mississippi State, but favored. Should be. Yeah, like you're over a touchdown against State for sure. Okay, all right, I didn't even know it was that much. So you take care of business through the first six games of the season. You're four and two. You can sell that. You can keep confidence high, but you could also lose. You could also lose your first four SEC games. Those are games that could go the other way, and if they do, well then, buddy, then we win. Then we can start to see that the trains start to slide off the tracks. I am not going to invest in that being the scenario here, but given the choice between being able to have everything come together perfectly versus the potential for something to get a little bit combustible, I think Lenore Sellers will be better. I think the offense will be able to score points. I think that the schedule is going to leave me looking at six and six being more likely than seven and five. And what that means, who knows, but I'm very slightly to the under on this. And I'll admit that those Mississippi State-Kentucky games, that's kind of where it starts to hinge for me, because if you've got a little bit of confidence going into the off week, maybe you are able to jump up and nab a couple of teams coming down the stretch. Obviously, Arkansas and Clemson, to me, feel like the best chances. But hey, Tennessee coming to Williams-Brice in Cocktober, who knows, right? You know, you can get out there and stub your toe. It's happened before. Any other last thoughts? Oh, Ed, Tom is on the under as well. Tom on the under. Yeah, six wins, six and six type season. And then what it means, who knows? That's for South Carolina to decide. What do you want? How does it look? How do you feel? You're about to probably lose Lenore Sellers, Nick Harbour, Dylan Stewart. What does the recruiting look like? Do you feel confident in it? So those are the big picture questions. I'd be able to consider, but bowl team though, right? I mean, Danny, you were on the under, Bud slightly on the over, still bowl team. Yeah, I think so because of the soft start. Yeah. Like if this was ordered in a different way, then I really would lean into your logic more of like, okay, bad start, momentum gone, doubt creeps back in. Because of the soft start, it's, I think they can build some momentum. Can they sustain it? Who knows? Okay. Speaking of the Vols, Tennessee volunteers over under Wendell, DraftKings Sportsbook set at seven and a half. Another fun one that has been a little bit of a journey, kind of as Bud mentioned, to where you, what point in the off season, you're really starting to break this thing down. We had the Chaz Coleman news with his exit already. And now as we're checking in on some of the camp buzz, a little bit concerned about our defensive line. We're going to need Jim Knowles to be able to work some magic on that side. Also are back and forth at the quarterback position between phase on Brandon and George McIntyre. It's following a similar path of a quarterback battles between inexperienced quarterbacks. It's crazy. Sometimes they have good days. Sometimes they have bad days. Wow. Who would have thought about it, especially at a place like Tennessee. But I know that Deshaun Bishop is a baller at running back. Offensive line should be good, but you know, schedule is going to provide a lot of challenges. Danny, I'll let you get first. Word here with the Vols with an over under wind total of seven and a half at DraftKings Sportsbook over minus one 25 under plus one Oh five. What are we doing? This was another one, a little chicken scratch on my sheet going back and forth, trying to my initial hunch said over coming back to it and kind of looking at all of these, I kind of did have a philosophy that I wanted to stick to. And it was kind of first year starters with quarterback battles and not a lot of experience playing football against this schedule. You know, then I was like the good, and I was like, man, they've got a good offensive line, pretty good weapons at receiver. Josh Hypo will figure it out. Whatever quarterback is there. I just, I came back to the under though. Again, not a ton of conviction, but I think the schedule is one of the tougher ones. I think it's going to be tough for them. I like the addition of Jim Knowles, but I don't know if it's going to be enough. So I went just under seven and a half. Yeah. I don't show a big edge here, but I do think that this is an, an offense that a young guy can run and run well quickly. Like this is one of the best offensive lines in the sec. I think some of the receiver weapons are really underrated within the league. Like some of the young guys, I think they do a pretty good job of scouting. I do have Knowles. I know sometimes it takes this system longer to get going. And look, I do think like losing the pass rusher is a fairly big deal, but I think they're like interior defensive line is, is pretty solid. I think their, their secondary is one of the biggest upgrades. And the sec probably over what they had last year. Like if they didn't have all those young guys out there last year against Georgia, they probably beat Georgia. You know, like, like that, that was a team last year that they had a massive downgrade at quarterback and still made it work. Right. Like if Nico is on that team, I know even dealing with all this stuff, like I'm pretty sure he's, he's better than the kid. They ran out. Well, the grown man, they ran out there last year. Obviously he was pretty old. So I'm slightly over here. I do think that they can get off to a five and one start. Right. Like Texas at home is certainly not easy, but you know, like you get five home games and one of your SC road games is, is Arkansas. That's a, a fairly decent draw for you. Like at South Carolina at A&M at Vandy is probably where, probably where they're making your money here. Like if you're losing at home to Kentucky or at home to Auburn, you're in real trouble and they're, you know, fighting for their life to make a bowl. But like there are tougher places to play in the league than at South Carolina and at Vandy at Arkansas. So I do like that. They get most of their games at home. they're trying to get to the eight-win mark. Love that they get Georgia Tech early. and we're going to be still breaking in a new quarterback. And I mentioned in the ACC win totals how Georgia Tech is a team that if the game is played on their terms, then they're going to be really, really tough. But if Tennessee can get off to a hot start, remember when Tennessee first quarters have been a thing? And they've been a thing with multiple quarterbacks and multiple Josh Heupel years. If Tennessee can go put a number on the board and make Alberto chase them, then I like to give them a big edge in that game as well. So I see a very fast start where you're able to bank a lot of wins. And in that, be able to let your quarterback settle in. Be able to let them get comfortable. And I think that Deshaun Bishop is just going to be the best friend to this entire offense in terms of being a workhorse, being reliable, and allowing to take some pressure off the quarterback position. I am uncomfortably over. I started – I was – Yeah, that's where I'm at. Yeah, I don't love it. I don't love it. I think – I was talking smack about the Grimsley – I'm uncomfortably under. So, like, none of us feel great. None of us feel great. Tennessee makes us all queasy. So that's it. There's your tagline, Emily. Emily Proud. Here's the tagline. Tennessee football in 2026 makes everybody queasy. Best of luck on that one. And it could be a really fun team too. Like, you know, if they get things going, get it rolling, it could be a fun team. I mean, Tennessee fans are the best too because they have been analyzing the different IG posts of George McIntyre and Faison Brandon trying to discern the tone of their IG posts and what it might say about the quarterback position. Like, George does a pick with his girlfriend while Faison does a pick of him, like, throwing a football. And they're like, George ain't focused. I'll tell you what, George ain't focused on the night. Yeah, that's it there. Yes, BK Supreme 69-420. You want to know – You are one of the Fornelli faithful. Tennessee, for Tom, is under. Tom going under on the Tennessee Vowels. Coming up on the other side, it's time. I mean, it seems like Texas wins every single July. How many games are they going to win in fall? We'll get into all that and more next. Back here on the Cover 3 podcast, Jag, Noel, 26. Home field drop is insane. Got me a new polo and hoodie. That's right. Here on this Friday. Friday morning, 10 a.m. It just can't miss kickoff drop is phenomenal. I went ahead and put in my order for the North Carolina game day polo, 90s kind of retro-inspired design. Code Cover 3 is working. I can affirm. Code Cover 3, C-O-V-E-R 3. Home field apparel is going to be the official outfitter of the Cover 3 podcast and your game day all college football season. Again, that is code Cover 3, C-O-V-E-R 3 for 20% off. Your first order that drop here on Friday went ahead and got my order in. All right. Let's turn our attention to hook them to the Texas Longhorns where DraftKings Sportsbook has the over-under win total set at nine and a half with an over at plus 120 and an under at minus 142. Well, geez, Chip, if we're going to talk about Texas like they're one of the four best teams in the country, why do they have a win total that's juiced down to nine and three? Well, because they also play a ridiculous schedule that includes a non-conference game. They have a non-conference matchup against Ohio State. They have the game against Oklahoma rivalry and then road trip to LSU, road trip to Texas A&M. Now, there are some other challenges as well that you might feel a little bit better about, at least in terms of them being favored. And that's probably because they went in and they brought in Melvin Ciani from Wake Forest. They brought in Hollywood Smothers from NC State, Relique Brown from Arizona State, Cam Coleman from Auburn. I mean, sheesh. You put that with Trevor Goosby, Connor Robertson. I mean, we're just talking about on paper. Oh, yeah, and Arch freaking Manning. I mean, this is an all-conference team. Like, maybe not SEC all-conference, but some conference. This is an all-conference caliber team right here, all suiting up in the burnt orange. Oh, yeah, defensively, Colin Simmons has been a top player forever. Rasheem Biles is drawing rave reviews. Coach Boom's coming in on the defense. I mean, I feel like my coach is going to be like, the cup runneth over. Danny, can you sober me up here? I'm not going to help you because I'm bullish on Texas. I believe in the offensive weapons. I believe that Arch Manning is going to have a Heisman-worthy year. I believe Texas is going to make the playoffs this season. Schedule is one of the toughest out there, right? And I'm curious to know if Bud has one where it's to make the playoffs as opposed to the over. But I'm going to go with the over. I think Will Muschamp's going to be huge. From the intensity factor, the toughness, like just grit, I think that intensity, that kind of high energy on the sideline is something that maybe they lacked with Pete Kwiatkowski. Colin Simmons is going to be screaming off the edge. And not only the weapons they have at receiver, but the two backs in the backfield. Questions along the offensive line I think are valid. But if they let these fifth years come back and Cole Hudson's able to be a contributor like they think he will be, that adds some depth to those pieces. I am buying. In the Texas hype, give me the over. I mean, I think their cup runneth over as well, but like I'm under. Not to a point where I want to bet it. I think this is a pretty well-priced line. Honestly, that's not great podcasting. I think this is about like where this price should be. They have a really difficult schedule. As far like they just don't play to the sum of their talent frequently. They don't play to the sum of their talent frequently enough under Sark for me to trust them and to go over, right? Like, I mean, you go to overtime last year against awful teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky. That's concerning, right? Like you, they got kind of manhandled against Florida last year along the trenches. Do you trust Sark enough to think that they don't have a slip-up? Because like one slip-up in a game that you should definitely win and then you just split your coin flips and this thing goes under. Like, can they stay focused? I don't know that I trust that, to be honest. Like, I'm not piling in a bunch of cash on the under here. I just, I'm not like really looking to jump to the over. And just when I modeled it out, I think nine and three is more likely than 10 and two. So go ahead and give me the under. I mean, you ain't wrong. I mean, that's the difference here is on one hand, Steve Sarkeesian can say, I've gotten this team to the final four twice. Yeah. You know, and I have to say, I have broken, I've led this charge through. We asked about how many years were we talking about Texas being back or the U being back? We don't even make those jokes anymore. I mean, they are just, now they are a team that just is still waiting for that last step. Now they're kind of at what? Maybe like, are they like on an Oregon caliber in terms of the national reputation where every single season, the talent that is collected is among the best in the country. And now you are just waiting for them to take the last step. On the biggest stage. Is that fair? Yeah. Yeah, I think so. I'm over for the record. I might, I am like, but like fill up my shiner. Let's let's go. Like this is, this feels like a super team is going to be built for them to go and win a whole bunch of games in the regular season and then really carry those expectations into the playoff. And I, I think that after falling short so many times and after having so many of this experience, players back, I am thinking that there will be an ability to stay a little bit more focused and avoid the slip up. But I agree with you, but one slip up and this thing gets real hairy, real fast, but I've, I'm not going to put into my calculations or my projections that they're going to be letting, letting the Mississippi state, letting the Kentucky, letting some of those situations come through. It's, it's not last dance, you know, but, but it does feel like everyone has been uniquely assembled, with one singular goal in mind and get, you know, what's going to happen after the season. Everyone's gone. Right. Then it's the D a bell era. And that's when they're going to win even more national championships. Yeah. Bell in the way. Yeah. I, so somebody in the chat asked like, what is a parlay of Texas under plus like, like, you know, with Texas to make the playoff pay, which doesn't really work. Cause like eight, eight and four is also in under, right. But if you were to do exact wins times to Texas, to make the playoff, that's five 50. So the implied there is what? 15% to make the playoff at exactly nine and three. I think that they're higher than that. Like that. That's kind of like a unique way to attack this. It's an extremely unique way to attack that impressive. Any, any other thoughts here? Oh, Tom, for the Fornelli faithful out there, he is on the over that he is also there before the forehead. Oh, Oh, I'll give, I'll, I'll let, I'll let Tom declare, uh, which, which, which side he went. Are you good with bud heads? Sure. Okay. Yeah. It was, it was, it was kind of like when I called like wit weeks and insider, and I didn't realize what I had said. I just kind of stumbled into it. You know, I said bud heads and then somebody started making butt head jokes. And I was like, ah, crap. I didn't mean to do that to my guy. Just like, you know, Tobias Funke, he blew himself too early, you know, covered himself in blue paint way too early. All right. Um. I think that Texas will be a team that's in the college football playoff. What's there to make the playoff price? Minus? Minus $1.75, minus $200, depending on where you look. Tricky. Tricky little line to be able to skim there. That's probably why the percentages are just a little bit off. Count them out! From Austin to College Station, to their rivals at Texas A&M, DraftKings Sportsbook has their over-under win total at 8.5, over plus $100, under minus $120. As you take a look at another year of Marcel Reed taking over, we've got to change it. Offensive coordinator promoted internally after Colin Kline heads off to go take over at Kansas State. Terry Bussey getting some buzz coming out of fall camp. I really like the edge rushers on this defense. Offensive line has a lot of portal influx working into the rotation. We were talking about Ahmad Hardy another little bit. Damian Sanford, remember, injured in the spring game. One of their most important linebackers. There's a sense that he might be able to be back, but I don't know if you can count on him to be a part of the picture early on in the season. A lot of toss-up games as I see it, Bud. How do you read Texas A&M going into this season, going up against their schedule? Yeah, I'm under slightly. I have 8-4. It's more likely than 9-3. The odds there are about even, so I'll go under. They're not – I don't think you're stealing-stealing on under. Like I said, these numbers have been out for quite a while. They should start 3-0. You should beat Arizona State. You should beat Missouri State. You should beat Kentucky. Some of the roadies here are tricky, though. At LSU, if you don't have them as a top-five team, in the conference, then at Missouri, I don't think they should lose at Missouri, but that's not a game where you're going to be favored by 20. At Alabama, at South Carolina, we just talked about them. Then they come back and host Tennessee. Then you're at Oklahoma and Texas. That's a really, really difficult stretch for A&M. Again, no bye week baked into this. At Bama, out South Carolina, Tennessee, at Oklahoma, and then Texas on short rest, which Texas also has short rest to A&M. It's not like you have a big rest disadvantage there, but I do think that's a bit of a disadvantage as far as the grind. That is tough. Looking at this, I am slightly under. I'm not a big Marcel Reed believer. They made the playoff last year, and I think Elko's a really good coach, to be honest. I just don't know that they have the schedule for this year, and I don't really trust the quarterback to navigate the schedule. I agree on almost everything. The offensive line, losing four guys, the NFL is concerning. I think the loss of Colin Klein is pretty big. I'm always curious to see when you elevate from within. It's not as simple as just keep calling the same plays. There's a very fine nuance to when you call the plays, the adjustments you make in the game. Marcel Reed's already struggled with consistency. It's been two years now. I know he got better last year, but he's still incredible. He's incredibly inconsistent. He has to get way more consistent in some of those road games, which are some of the toughest environments to play in. I'm slightly on the under on this one. Plus, the Texas game, which is home, they're still 0-2 against Texas in the last two years. I misread the schedule, but they get a bye after Bama. It's not five straight. It's Bama bye, and then out South Carolina, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas. Are they going to go above 500 in their toss-up games? That's kind of what, again, I. That's the answer to the bet. Right. And that's why I think we're going back to Texas 8-4. I just, you know, at 8-1⁄2, we're just a little bit too high for, you know, if you are going to be buying up a little bit of stock. I mean, you could finish the season losing four of your final five games, sensibly. You'd be a very good football team. Texas A&M could be a top-20 caliber football team and still lose four of their games. Four of their final five games. And that's, you know, if they've been able to get through the first half without any slip-ups along the way. I've got this playing out as 8-4 more likely than 9-5. I am on the under for Texas A&M. And Tom Fernelli is also on the under. Count them out! And we have gotten to the Vanderbilt Commodores coming off a. Dynamite season for Clark Lee. One that affirms what he'd been building. You know, you've got to build a different mousetrap at Vanderbilt. You can't do it the way that you do it everywhere else. He came in, he laid the foundation, the winds were small, and then all of a sudden the winds got bigger. And then the winds got really big. And then all of a sudden you're knocking on the door of college football playoff contention. Now you lose Diego Pavia and you lose a lot of pieces. But, I mean, sure enough, they're going right. Like, Jacory Thomas, coming in from ODU, I think could be a really good player to be able to help elevate this passing game. Jared Curtis, five-star flip from Georgia. Great recruiting win. Has not yet been named the starting quarterback. Blaze Berkowitz, pushing him, you know? So, if Blaze is the quarterback, I'll have fun talking about that, too. If Jared's the quarterback, it'll be interesting to see the young man be able to take over. Cedric Alexander is back. Now, you thought that you were going to be able to get good athletes at tight end out of this. I think you're going to get good athletes at tight end out of this group. Experienced all over the depth chart, which, again, you've got Clark Lee at this point in his time at Vanderbilt. He's built this thing up. This is how you get old and stay old. This is how you build your different mousetrap. Over-under win total at DraftKings Sportsbook is at 5.5, over-minus 130, under-plus 110. Danny, what are we doing with the doors? First of all, I would love to just re-speak and re-state how we feel about Barton. Before you say what? Yeah, I'm trying to get my heart. There you go. That's how I feel about Barton Simmons. You mentioned Diego Pavia, the loss of Diego Pavia, and how that's tough. I think that's a big loss. For what he meant to that offense from a confidence standpoint, by the way, he was also the leading rusher on that team, like the physical toughness. And to ask either a true freshman or a first-time starter to come in and give them that type of push, I just don't know if they have. have enough around, enough pieces around to overcome some first-year starter-type mistakes that they're going to get. I'm on the under. I hate it. It's kind of balancing out the over-unders here. But I think the best thing that could happen is if you do find out that Jared Curtis is the guy for the future. Like, unequivocally, like you see some of those flashes, maybe it's kind of a growing pains type of year because I think they've laid a really solid foundation. But I'm on the under. I'm on the under here with some tough, you know, road spots there at Auburn, at Georgia, at Florida. You know, those aren't exactly easy games. NC State is a really interesting game that week three. That one could determine the difference in this one, you know, whether they go over or under. I think NC State's a really good team. So, I'm ever so slightly on the under. I'm ever so slightly on the over, honestly. Like, I think, like, first of all, fully agree. Like, Pavia. is a huge loss. I think that's priced in, but that's really the crux of this argument. Like, how much of Vandy's improvement was Pavia and how much was all the coaches that they imported to run a different offense and a different system? Like, if you have the answer to that, you kind of have the answer to the test. You just need to know, is it like 90-10? Is it 50-50? Is it somewhere in there, right? If it was just all Pavia, and you think Jerry Kill and those guys are just Pavia merchants, then. then. certainly, you're going to go under, right? Like, Pavia's a big loss. I do think Curtis has. has real talent. I think they're going to use his legs effectively as well in this offense. I mean, I think they can start out 3-1, right? Like, I don't think there's some kind of lock to lose to both NC State and Auburn. And, like, guys, there's a non-zero chance they start out 4-0. There's also, like, a real chance they start out 2-2. If they go 2-2, kind of hard to see them bowling. I do like that they draw Auburn-Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi State. And I'm not putting Auburn in that Arkansas-Kentucky-Mississippi State category, but I think they're closer to that than they are to, like, the, you know, playoff contender category. I was also under Auburn. I have Auburn going 5-7. So, you know, for me, like, those four really winnable SEC games, and then I think if you embrace the variance here, there's, like, there's a decent chance that one of, like, Florida and Tennessee are not, like, up to capability. You know, I'm high on both those teams, but there's no guarantee they're both going to be good. So. I am slightly over here. I somewhat like how the schedule shakes out. Now, I think they play to a wider range, certainly, because you do have to play Kentucky and Mississippi State and Auburn on the road. So, like, if you're trying to just make a bowl, you'd kind of rather have those ones at home and then have some of the tougher opponents on the road and just take your losses there. For instance, I think you'd rather, you know, flop Kentucky-Mississippi State, like, have those be home games, and then just go to Bama and Ole Miss, take your Ls. But I. Man, I. I think Jerry Kiel's a good coach. I think that, like, those coaches they brought in on the offensive side are really good coaches. and I think Clark Lee's a good defensive coach, so I'm going over. I think they bowl. Yeah, I think there's a trust that when Vanderbilt identifies a player from Old Dominion or from Jacksonville State and they bring him in and they say, we like what we saw, we think this guy can make us better, that you don't necessarily look at it with the same side eye. Some coaching staffs deserve that kind of benefit of the doubt because of what you've been able to do with a quarterback from New Mexico State, because of what you've been able to do with players from the group of six to be able to jump up into SEC play and go throw hands with Alabama, to go be a real thorn in the ass for the Texas Longhorns, that you have to trust that Clark Lee, and again, I'm not just gassing up Barton here. This was one of those, you sit down and you're like, all right, this is what the results have shown us. I am also on the over. I just don't think that the way they are built, they are going to find themselves wildly outclassed a lot. And if that's the case, and you think that they're going to be able to win these games at the margins, then some of those toss-up games like in NC State, like having to go on the road to go play Kentucky, Mississippi State, Auburn, I'm just going to bet on Clark Lee. And I'm just going to bet on this old experienced team, which is so interesting considering they might be starting a true freshman. Real lie detector test, like taking the candy here. Some comments from Tim Beck about how Jared Curtis has been impressing the staff in the film room. So recognition from a true freshman, that kind of stuff seems like it's all, but if he's not named a starter yet, then maybe he's having trouble translating. Who knows? You take that one way or the other, but I've got this as a Vanderbilt team that has built itself up. And it's interesting because Clark Lee at one point in his journey was with Dave Clawson, right? He was the defensive coordinator. For, um, Wake Forest before he went to Notre Dame and Clawson again, ACC is different than SEC, but Clawson had that path, right? He had a couple of years of losing, and then he built that thing up and they were consistent, you know, like eight wins every single season, made it to an ACC championship game in 2021. But it was that build it up, get old, stay old, smart additions, guys who filled our, fit our culture, guys who fit our campus. I think Vanderbilt's there. I mean, they deserve that consistency to say they are a bowl team. Now, how, how are they going to be overall? Are they going to have another 10 win season? That'll take special play at the quarterback position. And we'll have to maybe see if Jared Curtis becomes that, but I am, I, I think Vanderbilt's a bowl team, uh, just based on the trust that I have in there in the way that they built this thing. I guess fair. Tom for Nelly under maybe that's why he didn't come. He didn't, he couldn't, he couldn't, couldn't bear to be able to get out here and go under on Tom is on the under, um, Bud and I on the over Danny also on the under for Vanderbilt again, five and a half is the wind total at fan dual sports book over at minus one 30 under at plus one 10, a couple items of business before we get out of here. First, something that is a schedule related. Thanks for all of you for rocking with us in this amended schedule. We had to get up to New York city, shoot the cover three, take over. Get back. That's why we had the Thursday, Friday. It will be a schedule that is a little bit more regular ish, at least for what we've been going on Monday. We are going to have the big 10 wind totals part one at 11 AM. Then we're going to stay live, uh, in the stream as the AP top 25 poll is released. So we'll give you a little bit of breakdown analysis, instant poll reaction. Then on Tuesday, 12 PM Eastern time, we'll be back on CBS sports. Network little cover three podcast on CBS sports network from home, not in studio. Then Wednesday will be big 10 part two at 11 AM. And also this is kind of special and we're excited about it. Beginning on Monday, all full episodes of the cover three podcast are going to be on paramount plus. Wow. They're going to let us be on P plus. I mean, Fiorentina is getting started in Copa Italia today on paramount plus the same network. That has my favorite Syria club is going to have covered three podcasts. So youtube.com slash cover three, as always is where you can find it. And that's where the cover three tailgate watches live. But you know, I know people like to watch us lots of different ways. Starting on Monday, all full episodes will be on paramount plus. Once we see it uploaded, we'll be able to give you more tips and hints on ways to bookmark it. Make sure it's easy to find in that excellent streaming app paramount plus. And also one last thing, our fantasy football today auction is still open. If you would like to give your locks on a future episode of the cover three podcast, then please hit the link. It will be in the episode description. Big week. We did a lot this week. We did good work, but Tom will Taylor Sheridan be writing the show now that it's on paramount. No, this, this, this is still a, this is still us, you know, much love to land man. And, uh, the many fine programs that he is, he has worked on, but no, that would have to be a guest appearance is that we still maintain at least some intellectual property here, but we are excited to be there alongside land man and the other fine programming on paramount plus, and you can follow him on Twitter at bud Elliot three. You can follow him at Danny Cannell, follow me at chip underscore Patterson gentlemen. Thank you very much. See y'all. See ya. One thing you learn doing a podcast is that, yeah, the show is the show, but it's also a small business. And with cover three, we want everything around it to feel like it belongs. The hats, the shirts, the stickers, the stuff you bring to events or send to listeners. It can't feel cheap or thrown together. That's where Vistaprint is the kind of partner that makes a lot of sense. Vistaprint helps make small businesses look established, polished, and professional without making the whole process feel overwhelming. 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