This transcript captures a pre-season college football show hosted by Josh Pate, focused on SEC win-loss record predictions and broader college football news. Pate divides the SEC into two parts, predicting records for each team, emphasizing swing games and schedule difficulty. Notable picks include Alabama at 10-2 after naming Keelan Russell starting quarterback, Texas at 10-2 despite a tough schedule, and Oklahoma at 9-3 with a challenging away slate. He also predicts lower finishes for Arkansas (3-9), Kentucky (4-8), and Mississippi State (4-8), while highlighting potential dark horses like Florida (8-4) and South Carolina (7-5). A major topic is the NCAA's court-ordered eligibility ruling, allowing NFL players to return to college, which Pate criticizes as chaotic but inevitable in the current system. He discusses camp intel from teams like Ohio State, Georgia, and Tennessee, focusing on quarterback battles, offensive line depth, and wide receiver concerns. The show also features a segment on "worst takes," debunking popular predictions, and concludes with bold predictions for the season, including playoff seeding scenarios. Throughout, Pate mixes analysis with commentary on the sport's evolving landscape, including NIL, transfer portal chaos, and the influence of the NFL.
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I'm about to say something. Don't freak out. I forbid anyone to freak out. Are you calm? Okay.
You know it's game week for USC in North Carolina and TCU in Florida State? We got Memphis UNLV
less than a calendar week away. What I'm trying to say to you
is it's not a calendar week. It's a calendar week. It's time. It's time for a jam-packed show high atop a sunburned downtown Nashville, Tennessee
on this Sunday, August 23rd, the year of our Lord, 2026. But it's time for the season to begin. The
last week zero of our lives, ladies and gentlemen. Everything just condenses into one great glorious
week one next year. But one more time around the merry-go-round is week zero. So tonight,
in honor of that, honestly, in honor of us being on air at all times, we're jam-packed with
SEC win-loss predictions. Again, I've put that off as long as I can, but I got to do something I don't
like doing tonight. I got to go on the record. And so we will do it. I was informed reliably
that the NCAA has suffered another crushing defeat at the hands of the courts. And I didn't want to
talk about it on the show, but a lot of you were talking about it. So I will very briefly later in
the show answer a question, one of thousands we've gotten, because you may or may not be out there
living your lives, seeing these headlines about the NCAA win-loss predictions. And I'm going to
talk about NFL players going into the transfer portal and saying, wait, that's not the fake
Pete Thamel account. That's not no three sports. This is really happening. Yes, it is my unfortunate
duty to inform you it is. All that, plus Alabama has named a starting quarterback. We got the
alleged worst takes of the college football season in the show tonight. And I've got camp intel. What
more could you possibly want on a Sunday evening? They're watching us in Shelby, North Carolina,
San Antonio, Texas, Prattville, Alabama. Thank you so much. This is all we do. So please make sure if
you're new around here, subscribe to the channel because it's free and it doesn't affect you in
any way whatsoever. Doesn't sign you up for anything, but it helps us out a lot. It helps us
to do college football year round, free of charge, the way we want to do it. No corporate interference.
That's what we're looking for around here. Okay, let's dive into the show. So I had to make an
important decision. Part one of the executive decision is we've got to do SEC win loss records
on the show tonight. But then I thought to myself, self, this is not 1997. This league has like 16
teams in it. So I don't want to do all 16 teams at the top of the show. So we pulled out the
calculator. We divided the conference by two. It turns out that means eight now and eight later.
And so we're going to lead tonight with, I don't even know how we divided this up. I think we just
pulled names out of a hat. Bradley, here's a good end point for you.
See, win loss record predictions. Texas A&M is first out of the gate. I love the runway they have.
If you look at A&M's schedule, the way it just kind of opens up, they got time to figure things
out. Now everybody's playing nine league games. That's hopefully the first and last time I'm going
to tell you that. But if I open with Missouri State and then I've got Arizona State, good team,
but a team in College Station, you'd be a solid favorite against. And then I've got Kentucky,
again, not a pushover, good, solid, stiff competition. But
it's what should be a 3-0 start before I look at LSU and I look at a road trip to Missouri. I should
be a solid favorite in six of my first seven games, though. Outside of that trip to LSU, I should be
solidly favored. But the back five at Alabama, at South Carolina, Tennessee, at Oklahoma, Texas,
really, and this is kind of the name of the game for a lot of these teams down here this year,
everything from 0-5 to 5-0 is in the cards. Neither of those will probably happen, but you get what
I'm saying in such the wide variance of swinging possible results. But that's not what we're here
to do. We're not here to go best case and worst case. I've got to nail down a record prediction
here. I have got Texas A&M going 9-3 this year. Coming off 11-1 last regular season. Schedule
stiffens up a little bit more this year. I got them going 9-3. We'll see what that means about
the playoff. Next up, Team 2 out of the gate, University of Georgia. Georgia, as SEC schedule
has a pretty workable slate here. They also don't have a murderer's row to start the season. I think
that Oklahoma game week four will be a war. For all we know, you're looking at the two best defenses
in the conference, although Texas would have a whole lot to say about that. But that Oklahoma
game will be the first time we really get to test the temperature of that Georgia team. We get to see
Gunnar Stockton, that wide receiver core against that OU defense. We get to see if Georgia can
impose their will running the ball. Against one of the best defensive fronts in the country. But it feels like there are three swing
games here, really. That game against Oklahoma, that trip to Alabama, and then there's a trip to
Ole Miss later in the year. Neither of those, none of those rather, are back-to-back. So I feel like
if I were Kirby and I made this schedule, you can't avoid playing tough games. But the way you
would hope to have them spaced out is pretty efficient here. Also, the Florida game this
year is in Atlanta. Not exactly a home game, but kind of sort of a home game for them.
South Carolina. Now you see that's the week after they play Alabama. So the fourth Saturday in October, I guess. But it goes deeper than that. That is Tennessee's eighth game in a row. Going to South Carolina for their eighth game in a row, and that's South Carolina off a bye at home. And for that reason, I think that's a massive swing game that I think most Tennessee fans would love to just pencil in as a W. I don't do that. So this one was up in the air a little bit.
You got to try and decide how those swing games are going to go. We know we're going to have a new starter at quarterback here. Really, really interested to see how wide receiver depth shakes out. Really interested to see if my theory about how physical and imposing a ground game they can have tests out. I'm going eight and four for Tennessee. My feel on this team is they're a year away from being a really, really big time national title SEC type contender. If they're a year ahead of schedule, so be it. But I'm not going to put that expectation on them. So I'm going eight and four for Tennessee.
Probably not going to be a great year for Arkansas. Arkansas, new head coach, a lot of newness up there. Probably not going to be a fun season. What you hope is you look at this year and there's stuff you can build on. Now, if they go beat Utah in week two, we can reassess. Side note, isn't it wild how the word reassess is spelled? Pretty crazy. Anyway, back on the main road here. Can they clip someone late? Can they go down to Auburn and get Auburn?
They're probably not going into Austin and beating Texas.
Could LSU go up there and just. Learn why they call it Fayette-Nom, or they have for a long time.
The problem is, by that point in the year, you're probably pretty depleted yourself.
I have 3-9 for Arkansas this year, with both fingers crossed,
as we knock on wood, that there are better days ahead for them.
We flip the paper, and we head to Norman.
Big year.
The recently extended Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners,
the lineup of swing games on Oklahoma's schedule is amazing.
Michigan, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Texas A&M,
four of the five games I just listed are away from home.
One of them is neutral site.
Three of them are on the road.
That's a tough slate, man.
But at the same time, I don't think there's a single game on this schedule
that you look at and you say, that's a loss.
Maybe you look at that game week four at Georgia, but I don't feel that way.
I watched OU go where, Jesse?
They went to Alabama.
They went to Alabama last year.
They went to Tennessee last year.
I thought they were going to lose both of those games on the road.
And they went 2-0.
And so, they could win the SEC.
They could also be cooked by mid-October.
Because that's the way their schedule sets up with that trip to Michigan in week two,
and then a trip to Georgia a couple of weeks later,
and then they got the Red River shootout October 10th.
Those are three losable games that, if they all go against Oklahoma,
makes you look real stupid for extending Brent Venables, firstly.
Secondly, it leaves you asking,
man, what's left to play for?
By October 10th!
But on the flip side of that coin,
you could be saying, man, Oklahoma's one of the favorites to win a national title right now.
And maybe the number one team in the country.
John Mateer may be the Heisman favorite.
It's the beauty of college football's regular season
when it is viewed through the proper lens.
I have Oklahoma going 9-3 this year.
I gave serious consideration to 10-2.
The only thing that backed me off of that
is I do believe that the ground game will be much improved.
I believe, but I want to verify.
And the other part of it was, like I mentioned,
Michigan, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Texas A&M,
four of those five games being away from Norman,
as good as you guys were on the road last year,
that's still tough.
But I think they're going to be a contender throughout the season.
I got them at 9-3.
New head coach at Auburn.
New regime at Auburn.
Auburn has massive early swing potential.
They play Baylor.
They're a little over a touchdown favorite against them in Atlanta week one.
They got Florida coming to Jordan.
They're here stadium week three.
Just stop there.
Three games into the season.
They could be 1-2.
They could be 3-0.
Neither of those things would be shocking.
Either way, though,
I feel like there's a pretty good chance there's a midseason wall that you hit here.
And they're free to prove me wrong.
But when you have a trip to Neyland and then a trip to Sanford Stadium
and you got to play LSU and then you go to Ole Miss,
I don't know of many four-game stretches.
out there that are tougher than that at Tennessee, at Georgia, LSU, at Ole Miss.
So whether they start 3-0 or they start 1-2 or whatever,
I do think there's a coming-back-to-earth moment there.
And, you know, maybe they pull an upset, but this is not about best-case scenario.
It's about what I think actually will happen.
But then the back half, all right?
So if they somehow emerge out of that and they haven't been sandbagged for the season,
Arkansas at Mississippi State, Sanford is your lead-in.
All right?
All right.
To a season finale on the road in Tuscaloosa.
I think it is an up-and-down season for them that shouldn't be, like,
the big takeaway about what Alex Golish's Auburn will be.
I think there will be moments you can believe in.
The consistency that you have to play at to win more than six or seven games in this league,
I don't think will be there this year.
So I've got Auburn going 6-6 this year,
and I'm a huge believer in the future of that program.
I think that's kind of what they're going to be capable of this particular year
with much brighter days ahead.
South Carolina.
To me, it's the toughest team to figure out in the league.
South Carolina is incredibly difficult to figure out.
For example, if I were to go to the best-case, worst-case route,
4-8 and 10-2 are both outcomes that I would look at and say,
yeah, those are kind of the bookends.
Those are the extreme edges of the possibility meter.
Because if Lenora Sellers really does,
just seamlessly plug into this Kendall Browse offense
and the impact players that they've missed from time to time in spring and fall
due to injury are good to go for the season.
If I'm not listening to practice report after practice report
about the availability of Dylan Stewart,
if I'm not questioning the wide receiver room's development behind Nick Harbour,
if all that stuff falls into place,
they could be a really good team.
This is the kind of team that if you're looking for the,
I don't know,
dark horse contender type is a potential dark horse contender type,
but we can't do that.
We can't ignore that Dylan Stewart's availability has been in question.
We can't ignore the injury concerns in general there.
We can't ignore that what we're banking on here is a QB to plug into an offense
that even if it does look promising,
and even if he does love how he conceptually fits into it,
he hasn't played in.
I've got to take all that into consideration.
I'm going south.
Seven and five with South Carolina.
I don't feel great about nailing myself down on this one
only because I feel like this could go two radically different directions.
So seven and five,
write it in very light pencil.
Don't feel great about that one.
And Kentucky,
here's a question about Kentucky.
With Kentucky,
I just want to know,
does the bomb go off this year?
They're not going to be a great team.
I want to know if a bomb goes off.
I want to know if they beat Alabama in week two.
I want to know if LSU comes up there and drops one inexplicably.
October 10th.
I want to know if they go into Neyland Stadium and beat Tennessee.
Like, do they pull one of those that makes you say,
man, even year one,
Will Stein pulled this off.
Imagine what we're capable of down the road.
That's what I want to know more so than anything else.
As for the record,
the FanDuel over under win totals four and a half with them.
I actually clicked it down a notch.
I went four and eight.
And hope I don't offend anyone by saying that.
You know,
maybe like a five and a half.
Seven or six and six.
If those upsets happen,
that concludes part one of a massive two part SEC win loss record projection
evening here on the program.
Got a lot of folks tuned in live.
Appreciate you guys so much.
I do have the very,
very fortunate task of coming to you tonight.
Sorry,
had the wrong monitor up of coming to you tonight and letting you know the
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Okay, what a downer.
I hate that I have to talk about this.
Jason from Pittston, Pennsylvania, hit me and he said, and I think you can feel the emotion here,
what in the world is going on with all these fifth-year guys?
How are NFL guys coming back to the sport?
What happened to transfer portal windows?
Please help because this makes no sense.
I, Jason, with the cat emoji in your name, am sorry you're having to deal with this.
I'm sorry I have to deal with it.
I feel sorry for myself right now, Jason, not just you.
So this really boiled over this afternoon.
From what I can tell, a lot of you finally noticed this this afternoon.
Fire the Schefter tweet, Bradley.
So as we're sitting in the office today, Adam Schefter says,
history, the Browns are waving tight end Daquan Wright, and if he clears waivers,
he has an agreement in place for the 2026 season to play for LSU, per his agents.
Wright is believed to be the first player who could play for an NFL team
and then go back to play in college.
It's not a joke.
It is a joke, but it's not a joke.
Because I know most of you who are listening,
maybe on podcast and you can't see the graphic, you think,
oh man, he fell for the fake Schefter account.
No, no, it's all too real.
So here's what's happening.
Follow me because I'm not wasting a whole lot of time on this
because this is really, really stupid.
So the NCAA instituted the new fifth year eligibility rule.
Like from now on, you just have five years to play five years,
which in and of itself is a pretty good adjustment.
However, what they said is the seniors from last year,
this does not apply to you.
You guys are like the unlucky,
last class out the door and you don't get eligibility.
And then those players said, well, we don't like that.
We're suing you.
And then as it always does,
things tilted wildly against the NCAA in the court of law.
And not only have judges ruled on the side of the players,
you got a judge in Louisiana, the honorable Will Jordan presiding,
who has said, yeah, you guys are eligible
and we're going to create a week-long transfer portal
for you to move around.
And oh, by the way, even if you've signed,
a pro contract, you're eligible.
What a world, what a world we live in.
Almost everyone hates this.
You know, it is a good thing, I guess,
if we're looking for a ray of sunshine through this ocean of crap,
that we do have something that has brought us all together because normally
this is about the last time for many of our friendships until February.
This is the part of the year where we start being torn apart at the seams.
It's prediction season.
It's highs.
I just had to predict win loss records for half the SEC earlier on the show.
Like this is the time of year where we're at each other's throats respectfully,
not even always respectfully.
This is one of those rare moments where we're coming together.
Everyone hates this.
And so how is it happening?
Well, it's happening because no one knows what's legal and what's not legal.
And, uh, so Graham coffee, buddy of mine, love him really, really good voice for
college football.
I had Jesse screenshot Graham's tweet from earlier because I think this is a
pretty good synopsis of how most people feel.
He said a few things.
Number one, if I was a GM of an NFL franchise,
I'd blacklist Daquan Wright or any guy going back to college football from the
NFL.
That's uncompetitive.
I'm going to put that off to the side because those are not matters that
pertain to me.
Second bullet point.
Any coach who takes an NFL player loses all rights to bitch and moan about the
state of college football.
Valid.
Third bullet point.
It's perfectly fine to call these players, coaches, and schools out for this
behavior.
Just because something's legal, it doesn't mean you have to do it.
Now, this is in an idealistic world where Graham and I lock arms and we sing from
the same hymnal as Meemaw would say.
But we do not live in a fairytale world.
We live in the world of college football circa 2026 where pretty much anything
goes.
So, of course, the spirit of what he just said is right on the money.
I say that kind of stuff all the time on here.
Hey, I say it about playoff expansion.
I say it about new revenue streams.
I say it about that stupid monster patch on all the Big 12 jerseys.
Just because you can make more money doing something doesn't mean you just
should make more money doing something.
Or, in this world, just because it's technically legal for the moment to go
take a Cleveland Browns tight end or an Arizona Cardinals wide receiver who
happened to enter college in 2022 and you could add him to your roster doesn't,
mean you should, all that's valid in theory.
But I'm not even going to be the one who sits here and angrily wags my finger in
the coaches faces because it shouldn't even be up to them.
It's just like when we talk about playoff expansion and all these coaches say,
oh, I think there's a lot of merit to a 2014 playoff.
Of course you do.
Of course you do.
It helps you keep a job.
Respectfully, mountains of respect to you guys.
I don't care what you think about playoff expansion.
You're the last voice.
I respect on playoff expansion.
And similarly, you're telling me Lane Kiffin is going to go pick up a guy who
could be an additive piece of his roster because it's legal right now and he
doesn't feel bad about it.
Well, of course he doesn't feel bad about it.
It shouldn't be up to him, but because we have no system, we have no checks and
balances, we have no guardrails in place.
It's just happening.
Now, one of the things that I'll ask, and I'm on the record of saying I hate all
this.
But one of the things I'm going to ask is, do you really expect people in an
ultra competitive environment to just voluntarily pass on pursuing an edge?
No, is my answer.
I don't.
That's why rules exist.
But we're in a world where in the spot where there should be rules, there are no
rules because they're illegal and the powers that be, and that is a very loose
term in the sport right now, aren't exactly tripping over themselves to really fix
anything.
They make a lot of noise about fixing it.
But you see, when you guys talk about those TV ratings and those media rights deals and
all those checks still cashing, as long as that's in place, I have a sneaking suspicion
that the old powers that be out there aren't really all that bothered by this.
Is it a black eye yet?
No one will be talking about this a month from now, though.
The season will have begun.
Will you really care about LSU's tight end depth situation?
If you're a hardcore P1, yeah, you will.
But by and large, you won't care.
You'll also take it to the other extreme.
I said this about Hypel last year.
Everyone was patting Josh Hypel on the back when he let Nico Amaliava walk, me included.
But the one caveat I put on it is, hey, now, all these Tennessee folks, you guys are giving
them a ton of credit.
Are you going to be giving them credit if it means you go 7-5 or 8-4 because your QB1
walked out the door?
To Tennessee fans' credit, they didn't jump down his throat.
I'll now ask that at large.
If a coach, like a Dan Lanning, someone who has gone on the road and gone on the road
on the record, is calling this out for what it is, if those coaches drop some close games
this fall, knowing full well they could have gone and added a player, you going to give
them some social credit?
You going to bake in some equity there?
I don't think so.
I don't think it'll even be mentioned in November.
It'll be the same old, same old.
It's just like G5 coaches that get their roster rated.
No one cares about the why.
They just care about the what.
Okay, so those coaches exist in that environment.
I'm not carrying.
Water for them.
I think it's really, really pathetic what's happening right now.
All I'm saying is I have no expectation for these guys to just voluntarily abide by some
moral code.
There should be rules in place, but there aren't.
Now, since the current powers that be either can't or won't do anything about it, the one
question I wonder is the same question I've wondered for years.
Is there ever a point where college football can become such a disaster that it affects
the NFL?
And this is the closest that we've gotten, and I don't really know how much the NFL cares
about this.
It could be nada.
It could secretly be a huge burr under their saddle, as Meemaw would say.
I'm hoping for the latter, because for as much as I want to separate our game from the
Sunday game, one of the many edges that the NFL has on college football is it has long
since understood how to guard against things, how to have proper structure in place.
In their world, it comes through collective bargaining.
We're not there in the college world yet.
Who knows?
Maybe one day we will be.
But, and I'm careful when I say this, I think some NFL intervention here, after years of
benefiting almost exclusively in one-way fashion off of college football, whether from a marketing
or developmental standpoint, maybe, just maybe, it's time for the NFL to, I don't know, like
lift a hand.
Not even that far off the table, Jesse.
Just lift a hand to help.
Who knows?
We'll see.
Let's move on.
It's time to stop talking about that and start talking about the stuff we should be talking
about.
Horrible takes on this sport.
I asked earlier today, take all the popular sentiment out there.
Take all the predictions you see.
Some of them are bold.
Some of them are people who are out on an island by themselves.
Jesse predicted Florida to go 9-3 earlier today.
He's insane.
But there are other predictions that are pretty popular.
There are some.
sentiments out there that are shared by
the college football public, as we call it. Which ones of those predictions are the worst?
That's what I want to know. Like last year, a lot of people thought Penn State would
win the Big Ten, compete for a national title, and then they were terrible. That was an example
of something everyone thought that went horribly, horribly wrong, and I want to know what are those
examples this year. So I got five submissions for you guys. First up, Dale said one of the big, big
bad takes right now in college football is Oregon always chokes in the playoffs. Dale continues.
They don't. They won the first playoff game ever. They shut out Texas Tech last year. They had a
high-powered offense, and they beat them 23-0. This year, they're coming for your meme-obsessed
souls. Dale has. become a card-carrying member of have not, does not equal cannot, and he's, well, he's maybe right
about that. I just think there are a lot of people out there who are carrying a healthy amount of
Dan Lanning stock, healthy amount of Oregon stock, who hope he's right. I tend to believe Oregon will
eventually break through. I tend to believe when they do break through, there are a lot of tweets
that I may have screenshot, past tense of screenshot, a lot of bookmarks out there, and I did that
because I know you guys will delete them.
By you guys, I mean the ones who have trafficked in this sort of nonsense. You've trafficked in
the concept that Dan Lanning can't win the big one. Dan Lanning can't do anything. They choke
under pressure. Blah, blah, blah. Hey, man, they've been splattered a couple of times by
the eventual national champs, I might add, but they've been splattered a couple of times, but
one day, maybe they will do the splattering instead of being the splattered. Maybe it's
this year. Next up, this one came from Spencer. He said,
the bad predictions out there is that Miami is by far the best team in the ACC and everyone else is
playing for second. Spencer, I got to tell you, Miami's the best team by far in the ACC and
everyone's playing for second. That's my opinion. I am one of the many here, and you seem like one
of the very few, but I do know maybe where you're going with that, although you did me the favor of
typing one sentence, which I appreciate. If you typed two or three more sentences, you probably
would have said things like,
they're still waiting on Miami to win the ACC. They still haven't ever won the conference title
game. They were an overwhelming favorite last year, and they didn't get it done, although Clemson was
in the mix last year. Yeah, all that having been said, I still think they're an overwhelming
favorite to do this this year. So my question rhetorically, because you're not here to defend
yourself, would be, if not them, then whomst? Now, there is a scenario here where,
Darian Mensah has something happen to him. If he were hurt, if he were unavailable, there is a massive
drop-off. I mean, a massive drop-off between QB1 and QB2 at Miami. So if that were to happen, and I
don't know that anyone has a model to predict injury, if that were to happen, then everything's
off the table. But if Darian Mensah is healthy, if this team is largely, you know, as is on paper,
and you're telling me they're just flat out not it, and it's SMU or, you know, they're just not
Louisville or it's Clemson or it's someone else, that's a model that I want to buy stake in,
stock in rather, because I can't see it. But then again, that's the entire crux of this segment.
Next up, there's some wording in this next one that I don't know that I've heard, but the
sentiment I can take to heart. Kurt Cignetti is the new Nick Saban, is apparently one of the
popular sentiments out there that is badly off. According to,
have people said he's the new Saban? I have heard people say he's the number one coach in the sport
right now. The new Saban means he's going to rattle off six more titles, and I don't know that he's
going to do that. But if you're saying that Kurt Cignetti is the new number one coach in the
country, and now you're thinking he's going to fall off this year, I mean, look, I can say crazier
things have happened because them winning the title is a crazier thing. Nothing hereafter would
be crazier than their ascension to winning a national title. So if they were to go like nine
and three this year, give me a, give me Indiana schedule right quick, Bradley. If they were to go
nine and three this year. So if they lose Ohio state at Michigan and USC, maybe they even lose
at Washington. Maybe they go eight and four. Dude, first off, I know the bar has totally been reset
for Indiana, but if you were to just take out last year, eight and four is a phenomenal year for
all, for everyone up until two years ago when everything got reset. So yeah, if he falls off,
if they fall off, if, um, you know, if Josh Hoover really is a little more turnover prone than
they're comfortable with, if it really is that difficult replacing ponds at CB one, if it really
is that tough to, um, you know, to, to carry the crown around, which I think is just a false
conception. But nevertheless, if, if all that is problem, if they have a problem with,
oh, I don't know, complacency again, it's something I really struggled to secret
Cignetti allowing happen. But if that is an issue, then it's an issue. Um, I haven't called him
the new Saban and I haven't seen many people calling them new Saban, but I have seen people
call him the number one coach in the country. Yes, there is a world where I could see that,
that temperature cool down a little bit this year. Not that I'm predicting it, but I could see it.
Okay. Next up. Now this one would be,
this one would be a five alarm disaster in certain parts of the internet and certain parts of the
country, Texas as a national title favorite. That's one of the worst predictions of the year.
According to a person
national title favorite theoretically means they could still make the playoffs, get bounced early.
And look, I'll even go that far. Cause if they make the playoffs and get bounced early, it's still a,
a rippling failure of a season for SART based on the expectation out there.
But I took this to mean, what if they're just not even in the picture? And if they're not even in
the picture, yeah, that would fly in the face of most conventional wisdom. And yeah, that would
send off a ripple effect, maybe even a tsunami effect in the sport. Cause at that point, I don't
even know what to expect. I think we're dealing with a one of one situation, by the way, with how
SARK would be handled that we haven't seen before the likes of which we really haven't seen before.
We've seen guys get fired that history says shouldn't have been fired, but you needed
historical context to look back on it. We will have never seen anything like that. If Texas goes
nine and three, they missed out on the playoffs. And there's, there's a conversation around SARK
out there, or if they go 10 and two, make the playoffs, but get bounced early. Like that's NFL
stuff. That's the kind of stuff that happens in pro sports, not really college football.
So yes, on that one, that would be a big deal. And lastly,
there was a really good back and forth from the state of Michigan today.
Our boy, Justin hit us and said, yeah, one of the worst predictions in college football this year
will be Kyle Winningham was a great hire for Michigan. Now look, yes. Okay. Maybe we get to
the end of the year and they go eight and four and Bryce Underwood shows not a lick of improvement
and everyone's disappointed, but I want to just, can, can we hit pause right now in late August?
I just, okay, there we go. I hit pause.
It's late August. No games have happened yet. And I want to ask everyone,
they didn't get DeBoer. Kyle Winningham is who they did hire. If they had not hired Kyle
Winningham, who are we saying they should have hired? I think we got to be on record with this
before the season starts, right? So anybody out there, Justin, anybody out there, who should
they have hired? Who would that be? Honestly, I'm trying to recall the Michigan coaching search.
I'm trying to recall the Michigan coaching search. There are not any huge, like grand slam names, Kenny Dillingham. But I mean, in retrospect,
how do you know Kenny wasn't just leveraging the Michigan job for more money at Arizona state,
which he got by the way. So very, very cerebral movement from Kenny Dillingham out in the desert.
And he is a hardcore pro wrestling fan. So he knows good and well, the true meaning of the
word cerebral. I don't know, man. I, what else would you have done? Remember this was not,
this was not a Brian Kelly situation.
This was not a Brian Kelly situation where because of performance, he got fired middle of the season.
These were extenuating circumstances around Sharon Moore. So it was a very atypical situation
to begin with. Also, you had instability at athletic director, which everyone knew,
everyone knew that in the coaching market, it was going to be tough. So I don't, again,
I asked for popular predictions that are garbage. I guess that is one. Cause I think they did about
as good as they could do given the circumstances. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't
know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't
They're watching us in Fort Dodge, Iowa, Greenbrier, Tennessee, Goshen, Indiana, please. Well, first
off, thank you before I ask for anything. It's proper manners for me to thank you for being here.
Please remember as we get closer to the season last year, we passed half a million subs,
which just means we should skip over six, seven, eight, nine. We should just go straight to a
million being our goal. I don't think we'll hit it tonight per se, but we can hit it in the very
near future. We can hit it in the very near future. If you
immunity to everything I just said, please subscribe to the channel. That's really it.
We don't ask for a dime. We don't ask for your email address. None of that stuff.
The outside world operates that way, not here on
the campus of Pate State, all we ask is that you subscribe to the channel because here's what
happens. We take that to advertisers and they're really impressed by it. And it makes us feel good
when we look at that big number when we wake up in the morning. And it helps us algorithmically,
which I don't even know is a real word, but we use it around here all the time. So thank you guys so
much. And now back into the swamp that is SEC win-loss record projections. Bradley, I'll give
you a good end point here when you cut it later. Part two of SEC win-loss record predictions. Let's
dive right in. Let's go to Austin. Everyone's waiting for it. Everyone's got a feel. No one is
indifferent on Texas this year. They're either a national championship contender or Sark is screwed.
So there's a lot of noise coming out of camp right now. The public feels like they're cooling on
Texas and it's August 23rd when I'm saying this. So they're fresh off a second scrimmage. Arch was
turnover prone, got a linebacker.
Dismissed. I love it. I love it. I should print a shirt right now. It would be two words,
Texas anyway. I'm rolling with them anyway. I actually think this entire season will play out
much like a Netflix series. It'll be a very high profile team. It's led by a high profile head
coach, the highest profile of names in the sport at quarterback. They play eight of the top 17
teams in the fan duel.
Preseason odds to win the national title and I got them going 10-2 anyway. This is a very difficult
schedule. This is not a perfect team, but it is a plenty good enough team that has plenty enough
ways to win. Need I remind anyone, if this team needs to win a game 17-13, they are equipped to
do it. It's a very nasty defense. So I got them going 10-2. Now we eventually hop on I-10. Yeah.
And then we head east a couple of hundred miles to
LSU. I, you know what? I just said it'd be a soap opera in Austin. You could also copy and paste a
lot of what I just said about LSU. And long time viewers of the show will know when I pregnant
pause like that and I just throw some word salad at you, it's really because I can't read my own
handwriting and I'm trying to parse through it right now. Not easy. Oh, okay. I know what it
says. All right, here we go. Let's carry on. This schedule is not easy early. It's not easy early.
It's not easy late. There is a portion in the middle where I think LSU may disappear from the
national radar, like McNeese, Kentucky, Mississippi State, maybe even at Auburn. I don't think that
grabs the national attention, but they play Clemson in week one and it will. They go to Oxford in week
three. They got A&M at home in week four. They got Bama coming in there and Texas in November.
They go to Neyland in November. By the way, a ton of LSU folks watch this show. A ton of you have
season ticket holders. Do you guys ever remember a back-to-back home stretch like you have November
7th and November 14th? You got Bama and Texas back-to-back. Incredible value, not to mention
A&M and Clemson early on. I think you can pencil in six wins here and then you go to the swing
games. To me, the swing games come down to can you weaponize Death Valley? Here's the thing about
Alabama and Texas. Texas and Texas A&M, they got to come to you. One of the most feared weapons in this sport
is supposed to be Tiger Stadium, Death Valley, when LSU's good. We think LSU's going to be good
this year. You get some of the biggest names this sport has to offer coming into your backyard.
Can you weaponize it? How do those young players on that defensive front pan out? How does that
portal class pan out? All that thrown into a blender, to me, pours out as nine and three.
With LSU, probably on the playoff, I don't think they're going to be able to win. I think they're
going to be able to win in the playoff bubble. That really depends on how the rest of the country
plays out this year. I'm a believer a three-loss team or two, maybe, is in the playoff. Maybe
they're one of them, but I got LSU at nine and three. Next up is Missouri. Here's the thing
about Missouri. With Missouri, I only think you can pencil in three wins. They start with Arkansas
Pine Bluff. They go to Kansas in week two, and they got Troy. I think those should be wins.
Outside of that, a lot of it is really, really determined by what Austin Simmons is,
by whether or not they really lost too much defensively. Look, if Austin Simmons is a
high-level player this year, there's a lot of what I would call swing games that are wins for Missouri.
They could be 5-0 with Texas A&M coming to town. After those three wins early,
or after those three penciled-in wins early, they go to Starkville.
They got Florida at home. I think Florida's coming off Auburn and Ole Miss back-to-back,
so it's not easy for Florida at all. First-year head coach down there, by the way.
They could be 5-0. You could have that game against Texas A&M be one of the surprise games
of the year, is what I'm saying. That's how swing games set up the schedule. It's a back-loaded
schedule, though. Eventually, you do have the big boys. They play Texas and at Georgia and
Oklahoma three of their final four games of the season. Quarterback, running back,
again, awaiting on what the status of Ahmad Hardy is going to be throughout most of the season,
even if he can't go early. Is he who he can be in the meat of their schedule?
I played around with 7-5 with Missouri. I ended up going 6-6 with them,
with the admission. Heard a lot of noise behind the glass. Some friends of the program must be
in here by now. I went 6-6 with Missouri. I'm very concerned about what's going to happen. I'm very
concerned about what they'll be defensively. Look, I'm kind of cautiously optimistic about the
Ahmad Hardy thing. I have nothing more to go on than the updates we get from Eli Drinkwitz. I hope
that he can be right. If he can, who knows, man? Maybe that's 7-5, 8-4. But losses have to come
somewhere on this schedule grid. Missouri took a couple of them that I'd rather them not take,
so I went 6-6 with them. Alabama just had the news. Alabama names Keelan Russell, QB,
one. He could unlock a ton of potential here. So there's a lot of movement in the portal. There are
a lot of guys that they added on the coaching staff specifically, like Adrian Clem, offensive
line coach. A lot of it just hinges on the kind of production that he can pull out of that offensive
line. But as for their schedule, look, it's an extremely workable schedule by SEC standards,
and it's an extremely workable opening few weeks, especially if you're breaking in a new quarterback.
You're trying to find the tread in that run game. You're trying to get that offensive
line situation sorted out. You open against ECU, and you go to Kentucky, and you've got Florida
State and South Carolina, and then at Mississippi State. And I'm not sitting here telling you those
are dial-a-wins. That's not what I'm telling you. But what I'm telling you is, if you've got to play
the schedule they've got to play, I think you'd much rather play LSU, A&M, and Georgia later in
the year than early, which they do. So the hidden ingredients here is, can they play the schedule
defensively if they need to early? Can they win a 20-16 dogfight? I think they can. It's probably
one of the more under-reported aspects of that team. And how those freshman running backs
contribute to that team. That'll be a lot of what their season hinges on. I think you can pencil in
seven wins for them. I think if they get very good by mid-season, which I'm going to bank on with
them. I felt some people cooling on Alabama. I have heated up on them as of late. They're over
under win totals eight and a half. I am going to go 10-2 with them, which puts them right back in
the playoff mix again. I feel really good about what Keelan Russell, in time, could unlock with
that team. That portion of the schedule right there, like by the time they play Georgia,
Tennessee, A&M, LSU, I think that'll be a pretty good team. Ole Miss, very, very different schedule
story. Last year's schedule story to this year with Ole Miss, very different thing.
I think they're a top 10 team, but I only have five wins penciled in. Penciling wins in, by the
way, is when I do this exercise, and for the sake of argument, I just put a little green dot on five
games. Doesn't mean you couldn't technically lose them, but I'm not going to waste time deliberating
over them playing at Vanderbilt. I'm going to count that as a win for Ole Miss, and if it's not,
there are much bigger issues here. Top quarterback, good defense. What is their run defense? Mainly because of the
personnel of some of the teams they're going to play later, and also, is their playoff life on the
line early in the year? So they got Louisville right here in Nashville early on. They got LSU in week
three. They go to Florida week four. Are they in a situation where already by the time the calendar
turns to October, their playoff life is on the line? Maybe yes, maybe no. Then again, go all the way down
the bottom. They play Mississippi State the last week of the season. I highly suspect their playoff life could be on
the line by that point. I think it's a good team. I think they enter the season with the top
quarterback in the league. I think it's a tough schedule, and I've got them going nine and three
because of that. There's a lot of nine and three in the SEC this year. Next up, Florida. Very
controversial team. Summerall's not a controversial guy. Aaron Filo's not a controversial player. It's
just that some irresponsible things were said about Florida around the office earlier today, and it was sad. I'm not normally a
heavy-handed host, but producer Jesse was suspended for a brief period of time earlier this afternoon.
him because he, he did what I have been accused of in the past. He got a little too drunk on
Gatorade and he predicted nine and three for Florida. And I think that's just an irresponsible
thing to do. Frankly, it's an unfair thing to do for John Summerall, for those poor kids down there,
Jesse, to heap that kind of expectation on their shoulders in year one. Unfair. Having said that,
I am confident they're going to start two and oh, that's a pretty fair expectation.
Florida Atlantic, Campbell, two and oh. Then one of the underrated games in the early half of the
college football season to me happens in week three. It'll be vastly overshadowed by Ole Miss
hosting LSU that day, but Florida goes to Auburn in week three. That game's going to be one and a
half point spread either way. Dogfight. If they start three and oh, they come home to host Ole
Miss right after Ole Miss.
In the swamp, could be four and oh. Follow me here. If they are four and oh, they go to Missouri.
It would be an obvious letdown spot, but they're four and oh by that point. It also means they're
fully capable of winning that game. Could be five and oh. And then South Carolina comes to town.
And if Florida's five and oh, and then they got South Carolina coming to the swamp, that means
they could be six and oh. This is how Jesse's mind worked earlier today. And then Jesse said,
and if they're six and oh, why stop there?
Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma. I'm not saying they're going to win all three of them,
but maybe they go two and one. Maybe out of those three. And then it's Kentucky and Vanderbilt and
Florida State. And Jesse, why not 10 and two, honestly? How did you not get to 10 and two?
Listen, really good at tailback. Really good at wide receiver. Aaron Filo, I think, slash hope
in time, is going to be a plenty good enough quarterback here. This is not a team that has
to have a superstar, transcendent talent at quarterback. Frankly, they could have boring
quarterback play.
And maybe the more boring, the better down there. It is a radical shift from what they
attempted last year to this year. And so a lot of you throw around the term game manager
in a pejorative manner. I don't. I think it's a compliment. And maybe if they get that this
year, then maybe things can go well. I think there's an up and down element to this team
this year, as there always tends to be when you have turnover. But I think Summerall inherited
a good enough squad here. Plus, Summerall is just good enough himself to get eight and
four out of this team.
That is reasonable. Now, Jesse said, well, it's one game. What's the difference? Well,
one game is a ton of difference, Jesse. But I think eight and four is closer to me pressing
my head against the ceiling instead of just a most likely scenario. So if anything, I'm
erring on the upside with Florida. But you are still suspended. Mississippi State, it
was a tough practice earlier today when I was trying to map out Mississippi State. I
think it was a tough practice. I think it was a tough
If those one possession close losses against your Texases and Floridas last year, if those
really do end up being predictive of future success, then I'll be low here. And Brandon
Walker still won't be right, but it'll be close to what he said that I'm about to say.
This is an extremely hard schedule. They go to Minnesota in week two, which I think low-key
is a fascinating game, as the rest of the world will be paying attention to. I think
they're going to Texas, Ohio State, and Michigan hosting Oklahoma. Let's just remember, there
is a third SEC Big Ten tilt that week, and it is your Bulldogs of Mississippi State going
on the road to take on P.J. Fleck. But outside of all those, Alabama and LSU and Oklahoma
and Texas and Ole Miss and Auburn are all on the schedule. It's very difficult. So I
got Mississippi State going 4-8, and we'll root for them to prove me wrong. Vanderbilt
here, because it starts with a V. I think they'll be a competitive team this year. I'm
going to have a lower number here. The over-under win total is 5.5 at FanDuel. Look, 5.5, or
if you go 5-7, which is what I'm going to predict Vandy to do, you think that's terrible,
especially if they go 10-3 last year. It's a huge fall to 5-7. It's really not. It's
really not. It's just being on the wrong side of some close games. It's just kind of running
out of gas in the fourth quarter against Georgia or Ole Miss or Alabama or Florida or Tennessee.
I think they'll be competitive. I think there'll be sure signs when you watch Jared Curtis
this year that, man, they got something special there. And you're going to probably find yourself
saying they're taking their lumps, or maybe your grandpa will be saying they're taking
their lumps because that's something grandpas tend to say. But nevertheless, the principle
applies. I think the back half of the schedule is pretty tough. And because of that, I got
Vanderbilt going 5-7 with brighter days ahead. So there's your recap. Thank you, Jesse. Recap
is on the screen. I'm not reading it. I'm not reading it. I'm not reading it. I'm not
reading all those. If you're on podcast, this is really, really good motivation for
you to occasionally check out the YouTube channel. Thank you so much. It sounds like
I'm wrapping the show. I'm not. SeatGeek is your home if you want to go to any of those
games. Granted, it's going to be tough to go to LSU-Ole Miss. Not impossible, though.
A lot of you have money that you'd be more than happy to part with, a lot of it in this
case, to attend that football game. You can keep a little bit of it. If you go to Seat
Geek, you're not going to games this year. So unless you're a season ticket holder, God
bless you. Most of us are not that fortunate. Go to SeatGeek, and right before you check
out, where it says enter the promo code, enter PATE10, P-A-T-E-1-0. That's going to get you
10% off all orders up to $200. And for those of you who are sitting in the lower bowl and
paying more than $200, I'm just going to get you $20 off your order. Can't get it for you
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first choice.
You want to go see the Backstreet Boys in Vegas? I speak from experience. I have had
to purchase these tickets recently. The promo code works. Didn't make me feel better about
purchasing Backstreet Boys tickets, but it did get me a discount.
It pays to discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash 5 for details.
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And get fast, free delivery with Amazon Pharmacy. Let's continue. Big, big news in college football. Big news out of Tuscaloosa over the weekend.
Announced Saturday, Keelan Russell is going to be the starting quarterback for Alabama. So this
kind of tracks with what we expected all throughout spring. There was a period in the summer, early
fall camp, where I made sure to get a good amount of time to get ready for the next game. I was
not locked up. It's not decided. Austin Mack's competing here. He's probably been a little more
consistent, but Keelan Russell has the overall higher upside. I did not publicize this, but I
can now since this is all decided. I went down and watched them scrimmage last Thursday. I hung out
a couple of days with the staff down there, and I think this was a decision that really came into
focus over the past week to week and a half. I've watched them a few times this year in spring and
The most plain way to say this is if you were to stand on the field
don't know a thing about football and you were to just watch these two guys you'd say first off
Austin Mack looks like a giant and secondly wow he throws that ball hard and thirdly wow he's pretty
physical man he's pretty durable he can take a pounding all of these things are accurate then
you'd watch Keelan Russell and you would say it seems like number 12 just makes more stuff happen
it seems like the play stays alive longer it seems like he does things that maybe those coaches over
there are wearing those things those headsets is that what they're called yeah it seems like they
may not have necessarily designed what he's doing it seems like once the things they design don't
work he's good at making stuff happen anyway this would be a very accurate breakdown of the reason
why Keelan Russell just won this job over Austin Mack one reason okay elite arm in terms of talent
elite mobility really good at extending plays really good at the second reaction
stuff a really good at creativity sharp player but also the way these decisions happen on a message
board or on talk radio or on a podcast or on a show like this versus the way coaches have to
make them happen two different things and oftentimes I'll tell the story of sitting in a
coach's office last year it's not DeBoer but it's a high level head coach who had a quarterback
battle on his hands it was in the spring and he said look there's no doubt I'm going to win this
I know who I think will win this job I know who I want to win this job because he gives us the
better chance to win ultimately but I can't give him the job until he takes it okay that was the
situation that coach found himself in Keelan DeBoer had himself in that kind of situation here
where you may look at a guy like Keelan Russell and understand that guy's got a skill set very
few players in this country have we probably have a higher ceiling with him
but until the poise and consistency is there and also until he really wins this job till he takes
this job I can't give him the job it doesn't matter what I think should happen and that's
the difference in the way you get to think as a fan versus the way you have to think as a coach
but see here's what happened he did take the job make no mistake this is not a situation where they
just drew a line on their calendar and said all right we're making an announcement by this point
no matter what this was a situation where about a week ago it was very clear who had won this job
and then they went to this last weekend for whatever reason they went to this last weekend
but Keelan Russell grabbed that job by the throat and it was made very apparent by the way you watch
that team react so like I've observed this so I can tell you firsthand this is no knock on Austin
Mack he's a really good player Bama's got one of the best QB2 situations in America and I probably
think this time next year if Austin Mack's in the portal and he's gone to another team
one of the first things out of people's mouths will be the same thing they're saying about
Keen Holtz at Louisville will be one of the same things they're saying about Kenny Minchey
at Kentucky and that is boy you know that that dude almost beat Julian Sayen out but that dude
almost beat CJ Carr out because of what Keelan Russell will do for Alabama this year one of the
biggest feathers in Austin Mack's camp or cap this this time next year will be man he almost
beat Keelan Russell out.
That'll be what they're saying about him but Keelan Russell took the job man and it was very
apparent in the way the team reacted you'd you'd be very very clear in what I'm saying if you
observed this thing happen and and the way it played out in the past week so they have a chance
to be a very good team this year to be honest with you I was probably leaning more eight and
four nine and three range with Alabama going into you know the past week and kind of the
got to go down there and watch them but also understanding if Keelan Russell's good enough
to win this job that means that coaching staff was comfortable enough to name him the starter
over the guy they brought with them from Washington who is much older and has more
maturation in their system so that means he eased their concerns enough to where they're going to
trust him and that athletic potential and then I get an entry point like you see on this schedule
now that eventually leads to really big moments for him and I think he'll shine because I don't
think he'll have to do it by himself so the big two indicators here early on are going to be
obviously watching how much he has to improvise versus how much he gets to play in the structure
of the play and that really boils down to what that offensive line's made of and then number two
they've got two freshman tailbacks there that are probably the best on that team at that position
which is kind of weird to say but that's that's the reality of it there one of them it was expected
of and that's EJ Crowell who I think will be fine by the time the season rolls around and the other
one is Treshawn Brown who could be one of the best stories in the SEC this year because that was a
kid with no offers in this league that was a kid who they had to wrestle away from Boise State at
the last minute because a roster spot opened up and he had never visited Tuscaloosa and he signed
with them that dude's pretty good too so they don't need to be in the same league as they do in the
40 points per game this year. That defense is really good. Secondary is one of the best in
the country. They are a massively upgraded defensive front. They are a much bigger defensive
front. My point is the complimentary nature Keelan Russell should be able to operate under on that
team gives them a pretty high upside. Much higher upside than I expected them to have. So, you know,
my mind's kind of evolved on Alabama a little bit. Congratulations to Keelan Russell. More camp
intel pouring in. We don't necessarily have QB competitions everywhere, but Ohio State's fall
camp that I've kept a close eye on was one of the biggest questions there in general has just been
the offensive line and the rotation. And Ian Moore, he's emerged and pretty much taken that left
tackle spot. He got thrown in against Miami last year, held his own. And that is a tough team to
hold your own against. He's 6'6", 315. Could be a really good player. He has NFL characteristics.
He's a long way from that. But he is a guy that down the road could project like that. But it lets
you put Ciroveld at guard. And the tackle depth there may still be a little iffy. But I think
Ohio State's got an offensive line rotation here they can feel comfortable enough rolling with
to start the year. Okay, and then what your hope is, is because you're Ohio State,
because you've got the kind of staff you do, because you've got the kind of raw tools in
these players that you do, you hope it's like a Notre Dame situation a couple of years ago where
it's kept getting better and better and better and better. It's a developmental sport. So that's
what you hope for. Running back has settled itself here a little bit as camp went on. So a couple of
weeks ago, I remember a lot of the talk around Ohio State had been, wow, man, Bo Jackson's not
even taking reps with the ones at running back. And there were some theories, most of which were
probably true, as to why that coaching staff may need to be sending a message and putting Isaiah
West at RB1. But nevertheless, the expectation was that they were going to be able to do that.
Bo Jackson's probably the best in that room. Bo Jackson, 1,000-yard rusher last year,
probably has that ability, and then some again this year. And sure enough, that's the rotation.
Bo Jackson, Isaiah West, Jacoby Jackson is a guy who will get some play-in time there.
Legend Bay may be sprinkled in a little bit. That's a pretty good room. That's a room that
has really high upside. What about wide receiver beyond Jeremiah Smith? It's another thing that
we've been watching a little bit. So Brandon Ennis is there. It is a huge opportunity for
him this year. Devin McEwen, it's a big opportunity for him. But the cat on the screen right now that
Bradley has the slider up of, Chris Henry, is my favorite name to talk about here. And that's
mainly because I'm trying to be contrarian and look beyond Jeremiah Smith. I kind of just take
for granted that he's an alien. But what about the other guys in that room? Chris Henry basically is
the guy that you'll talk about like that once Jeremiah Smith moves on. He'll be the next big
one in line there.
He's 6'5", he's 2'11". Looks like he was created in a lab. He's a true freshman. And he will
eventually, it's my belief that eventually he'll just be too good to keep off the field. So it
might not be that he's out there for snap one, game one or anything like that. But I highly suspect
if not immediately, then pretty eventually, Chris Henry will be tough to keep off the field. Kyle
Parker has been a guy that's dealt with injury. He's a guy who eventually worked back into that
rotation too. So he's a guy that's dealt with injury. So again, I still maintain a little bit of question about how deep and
consistently effective the wide receiver room will be top to bottom. Not at the top, but the rest of
it. Because there's a ton of potential there. It's just got to work itself out. And will they
replace that pass rush is the other thing that we've kept an eye on. Kenyatta Jackson needs to
have a huge year. Because Bo Atkinson on the other side is a guy who, look, if they start him,
that means they got enough faith, hope, and trust in him. But I'm not going to
put a ton of expectation on him. I got a ton of expectation for Kenyatta Jackson. That guy's got
to produce. That guy's got to double his sack total this year, or at least come close to it.
I wonder how much that rotation on the defensive front morphs. Because I'm looking at some of the
names, and it feels like the kind of situation where we're going to put four out there, because
we got to have four out there to start week one. But that may very, very much be something that's
in the state of flux as the year goes on. Translation.
Translation. Competition doesn't stop once the season starts. We move on. Down in Athens.
Paul Camp rolls on, which means we have to do our obligatory check-in on the wide receiver room
at Georgia. Isaiah Canyon, London Humphreys, Kobe White-Helton, Talon Taylor. Are any of these names
doing it for you? Well, probably not, seeing as how I just talked about Ohio State. Don't do the
comparative thing, though. Georgia doesn't have to be elite at wide receiver. They do have to be
pretty good. They have to be good enough there. The ceiling is not extremely high in this room,
but one of the things Kirby talked about this past weekend, and I think there's probably some
merit to this, is a lot of times people are just willing to overlook that when you read practice
reports, when Jake Rowe and Rusty Manziel and the boys pump out a practice report, and it's not
chock full of huge explosive plays from the wide receivers, it's like you almost forget
they're going up against one of the best secondaries in the country every day.
And it's almost like sometimes, if you're dealing with that in practice, week one and two and three
comes around and you're pleasantly surprised. That is one possibility here. One possibility is
maybe London Humphreys, Isaiah Canyon, they'd pop. One of them's a thousand yard receiver,
which some people think is illegal at Georgia. It's not illegal, it just hadn't happened in a long time.
Could happen. Or it could be the ceiling's just not that high, and it's the same old,
same old at the wide receiver position. It does sound like Kyron Jones has had an excellent camp.
I mean, there's not a whole lot that's been up in the air for Georgia, but Kyron Jones at safety
has done what you're supposed to do. He's been given an opportunity.
Sounds like he's had a really good fall camp. And reading some of Rusty Manziel's work,
sounds like he may be locking down that safety job opposite KJ Bolden, which is a big deal because
is, uh, Kirby would not agree with this, but relatively speaking, Georgia is a really settled
team. They have far less questions about their frontline rotation than most teams, even in this
top 10 do, to start the year. So the big questions there are really more about depth, it seems. One of
those being QB2, behind Gunnar Stockton. It's just kind of been assumed that Ryan Puglisi's there,
and so he'll continue to
elevate his game. It's his second year on campus. And then you look at the scrimmage report the other
day. Turnover prone. And Ryan Montgomery really competing there. Good, good. That's exactly the
way the world is supposed to turn on its axis. But I have almost developed the mentality at the
quarterback position in major college football where I'll pay attention to who you have on your
roster.
With the way it works at the top end of this sport now, I'll just halfway assume the dude who's going
to start for you next year may not even be on campus right now. And if he is, great. And it'll
be nostalgic, all like the good old days. But I don't, I don't read too much into that. I think
this is one of the best offensive line situations in the country. Now, I want to be very clear.
Okay, Georgia's offensive line, Georgia starting five on the offensive line will be very good.
People may stop short of saying, oh man, that's like a top three offensive line in the country,
one through five.
Okay. Maybe you're right. Maybe you're wrong. I'm intentionally saying it's one of the best
offensive line situations in the country because they got like nine or 10 guys that they could
rotate in there and trust to play winning football. And even in the old days, sometimes Georgia
couldn't say that. So the fact that they have that kind of situation right now is one of the reasons
why maybe you don't have to be elite at wide receiver. If you just bowling ball people every
week, mind you, they're two years.
Removed from being in the one hundreds in critical rushing statistics. They massively upgraded that
last year. They'll upgrade it again this year. That'll be one of the 15, 10 best rushing programs
in the country this year. If not statistically, then via the eyeball, that offensive line will
be a big reason why a couple of more news and notes here before we get to bold predictions,
Tennessee, I'll agree with most of you. I kind of have heard the same thing like Pete Nacos,
a number of people,
who are following this stuff day to day have said, I'd be pretty shocked if Faison Brandon
is not named the starting quarterback here. I still maintain Tennessee's identity is crystal
clear. Like what they got to be offensively is crystal clear this year. I like the offensive
line situation. I like the tailback room. I like how Faison Brandon can actually compliment
what their style should be, which is to run early consistently and often and hope that defense can
play in a complimentary enough fashion to where you can play in a way that you can play in a
way that you can limit possessions for the other guy and win hard fought, grinded out games. That's
how they'll have to operate this year. West Virginia, they may have like nine different
thousand yard rushers on this team this year. The over under wind totals five and a half. Okay.
So not a lot is expected at FanDuel, but they brought in Michael Hawkins,
who we think will lock down the starting quarterback job. And that is a guy that if they run
the offense, the way it feels like they're going to run could end up being a thousand yard rusher
at quarterback. And they went and got Cam Cook from Jacksonville state, who was a 1600 yard guy
last year. Amari Latimer is a four-star true freshman at five, 10, two 30. I'm not going to
be the one who predicts they have 3000 yard rushers. Okay. Let me be clear. I'm not doing
that. What I am saying is someone should do that for bold predictions. So I can put a 9.5
on it and then send you a chalice when it inevitably happens this year. Iowa quarterback
battle, Hank Brown, better overall camp, Jeremy Helensky. How many 19 touchdowns last scrimmage,
roughly something like that. So the big concerns here are, are you going to get enough production
at quarterback and shockingly defense because of how much they lost for the first time in
my lifetime, Iowa fans are whispering about the defense. I refuse to because I'm a believer. I
could take the folks in that control room, give them to Phil Parker and he put a top 15 defense
on the field. But Tony Diaz at wide receiver, big circle name, FCS transfer him plus an excellent
tight end room and Kamari Moulton makes one think that there may be a little different spark to the
offense this year. If we can get competent quarterback play, there's a little different
kind of weaponry on the field than there normally is. So I just want to caution you guys, if you're
flipping through channels and you turn on a random big 10 network game and you see Iowa complete a 30
yard pass, don't freak out. Maybe a little different style this year. Also, it sucks at
Kansas state. They lost past story. It's all big 12 tackle. He's gone for the year.
But having said that, okay, injuries are a part of this game. Beyond that, they got a solid
wide receiver one. They got a good one to it. Tight end Avery Johnson's back. Uh, there, there
is, I was almost going to say no more excuse. It's just now is the time it's got to be now for him.
They have an outside shot of competing in this league, uh, pending what Texas tech looks like,
of course. So those are some other things we're keeping our eye on before we get to
bowl predictions and wrap it up here. Just a quick reminder over at the fan dual discord.
If you guys are screenshotting your bold predictions, like your, your futures bets,
for example, we're going to pull four of those out of there. And the four that we pull are going
to get $25 in bonus bets. Look, I'm going to, it's going to tell you what my strategy would be.
My strategy would be go bet $20 on a futures bet, have us pull it, get you $25 and then hope the
$20 bet cashes. But even if it doesn't, you still net it out. Plus five. It's a good deal. It's one
of the things that we're going to be able to do. We're going to be able to do it. We appreciate them so much. There are a ton of markets over there at fan dual right
now. Must be 21 plus and present in select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas star casino
or 18 plus and present in DC first online real money wager only $5 first deposit required bonus
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Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support
in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 hope NY or text hope NY in New York. Paper poppers are almost back
as is the ramen noodle express as is the Sarah McLachlan special. So many great traditions about
her at Pate State over the next couple of weeks. Bold prediction time though. We do it at the end
of every show this time of year. Your boldest predictions that if they rate 9.5 or bolder and
hit will earn challah of supremacy, plural of chalice. First up tonight, Yash. It's not a soft
J. It's an actual Y from Johnson City, Tennessee, probably a biblical name. He said this season
will feature a third straight team in the national championship that failed to make their
conference title game. So you got Ohio State in 24. You got Miami last year. I only think this is
an 8.75. So obviously.
You run the numbers, only two teams can make the conference title game in the SEC.
They've got like half a dozen teams that could threaten to make the playoff.
The Big Ten, kind of the same way.
Only two can make it.
There are several teams that won't make it that could be viable contenders,
and any of those teams, if they get in the playoff,
will end up having a shot to do something.
Also, if you're in it at the end, by default, you were probably hot at the right time.
So yeah, maybe you missed out on the conference title game,
but the tradeoff is you're in the playoff, you're hot,
and you get a de facto bye because you don't have to play in the conference title game.
So I'm only putting an 8.75 on this one.
Next up, this one's a little more complex.
Reid from Fayette, Alabama.
No team with State, Tech, A&M, or Dame in their name will win or will make the playoff quarterfinal.
So pay close attention.
Okay, no State, no Tech, no A&M, Notre Dame.
They can't even make the quarterfinal.
This would be as easy as Notre Dame going undefeated.
It's already blown up.
Because if Notre Dame goes undefeated, they'll be one of the top four seeds in the playoff.
They'll get a first-round bye, which means they're in the quarterfinal already.
So you've got to avoid that.
You can't have Texas Tech make the quarterfinal.
They're minus 200 to make that, by the way.
FanDuel actually has odds to make the quarterfinals.
Notre Dame's minus 290.
Ohio State's minus 185.
Texas Tech's plus 120.
You've got LSU that can't make it at plus 230.
Texas A&M at plus 280.
You've got Penn State on here.
Boise State on here.
Yeah, if you avoid all these, I'm going to give you a 9.5.
I'm going to send you a chalice.
Next up, the top three seeds in the college football playoff all belong to the same conference.
9.75.
This has got to be the Big Ten.
I guess.
There's a shot it's the SEC, but it's far more likely it's the Big Ten.
But the problem is, a lot of them play each other.
Like Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon mostly play each other, and then there's USC mixed in there.
So maybe they all go 11-1.
Maybe they really do.
It just balances out perfectly.
That's not the way this world normally works.
So even having said that, like if Notre Dame's undefeated,
if Miami is undefeated,
if Texas or Georgia go 11-1 and they're a conference champ,
one of them is going to be ranked in the top three.
So I'm putting a 9.75 on that one.
And lastly, wow, what a marquee game this would be.
Miami and Notre Dame meet up in South Bend.
Number one versus number two.
Miami leaves with a 14-plus point win.
So firstly, you've got to make sure that you're going to win.
You've got to make sure they're number one and number two.
That's hard enough.
Very doable, but also difficult.
And then you've got to have Notre Dame as a 6.5-point favorite, which they are right now.
You can go bet this game at FanDuel right now.
You've got to have Notre Dame as a 6.5-point preseason favorite at least.
Lose by two-plus touchdowns at home.
Well, maybe it could happen, but I'm going to pay to find out
because I'm going to put a 9.5 on that one as well.
That concludes Bowl Predictions and our show.
I appreciate you guys so much.
We have got a loaded week.
It is week zero.
It is technically a game week.
So this is it.
I mean, from now until the national championship game and beyond, we're locked in.
Make sure you're subscribed to the channel.
It's as simple as pressing the button right there.
That's it.
That's all you've got to do.
Do the same thing on podcast, which you guys have been doing by the thousands every week,
so I appreciate it.
Just please keep doing it.
Prayer hand emoji.
Let's have a great week for Director Bradley.
Producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate.
Take care, and we will see you Tuesday night.
Until then, God bless.
God bless.
God bless.
God bless.
God bless.
God bless.
God bless.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The transcript is a college football show by Josh Pate, featuring SEC win-loss predictions for all 16 teams, split across two segments.
Predictions include Texas A&M (9-3), Georgia (10-2), Tennessee (8-4), Arkansas (3-9), Oklahoma (9-3), Auburn (6-6), South Carolina (7-5), Kentucky (4-8), Texas (10-2), LSU (9-3), Missouri (6-6), Alabama (10-2), Ole Miss (9-3), Florida (8-4), Mississippi State (4-8), and Vanderbilt (5-7).
The show discusses a major NCAA ruling allowing NFL players, like Daquan Wright, to return to college football due to a court decision on fifth-year eligibility, creating a new transfer portal window.
Alabama names Keelan Russell as starting quarterback over Austin Mack, based on his higher upside and playmaking ability observed in scrimmages.
Camp intel covers Ohio State (offensive line, running back rotation, wide receiver depth), Georgia (wide receiver room, safety Kyron Jones, offensive line depth), Tennessee (quarterback competition), West Virginia (running game), Iowa (quarterback battle), and Kansas State (injury).
The show includes "worst takes" segment, critiquing popular predictions like Miami dominating the ACC, Oregon choking, and Texas as title favorite, plus bold predictions for the season.
Summary:
This transcript captures a pre-season college football show hosted by Josh Pate, focused on SEC win-loss record predictions and broader college football news. Pate divides the SEC into two parts, predicting records for each team, emphasizing swing games and schedule difficulty. Notable picks include Alabama at 10-2 after naming Keelan Russell starting quarterback, Texas at 10-2 despite a tough schedule, and Oklahoma at 9-3 with a challenging away slate.
He also predicts lower finishes for Arkansas (3-9), Kentucky (4-8), and Mississippi State (4-8), while highlighting potential dark horses like Florida (8-4) and South Carolina (7-5). A major topic is the NCAA's court-ordered eligibility ruling, allowing NFL players to return to college, which Pate criticizes as chaotic but inevitable in the current system. He discusses camp intel from teams like Ohio State, Georgia, and Tennessee, focusing on quarterback battles, offensive line depth, and wide receiver concerns.
The show also features a segment on "worst takes," debunking popular predictions, and concludes with bold predictions for the season, including playoff seeding scenarios. Throughout, Pate mixes analysis with commentary on the sport's evolving landscape, including NIL, transfer portal chaos, and the influence of the NFL.
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Keelan Russell has been named the starting quarterback for Alabama. He won the job over Austin Mack due to his elite arm talent, mobility, and ability to make plays when designed plays break down.
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